Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/14/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
850 PM MST WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture returning to the area from the south will
bring isolated showers and thunderstorms south to southeast of
Tucson through Friday during the afternoon hours, with better
coverage possible nearest the border. Deeper moisture pushing in
from the south will then increase thunderstorm coverage throughout
the area Sunday through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
just south of this forecast area across northeastern Sonora at this
time. The showers and thunderstorms that occurred earlier this
afternoon and evening had dissipated in southeast Arizona. The bulk
of the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening occurred
in Santa Cruz County and Cochise County. Rainfall amounts were
mostly from a few hundredths of an inch to around one half of an
inch. However, two gauges recorded amounts of 0.94 inch and 1.38
inches. Please see the AWIPS product PHXPNSTWC /WMO Header NOUS45
KTWC/ for detail.

Otherwise, clear skies prevail across much of southeast Arizona at
this time. The exception is from near the Tucson metro area and
locales south-to-southeast of Tucson, where scattered to overcast
mid-level convective debris cloudiness exists. Meanwhile, IR/Water
vapor satellite imagery depict yet another large MCS over east-
central and southern Sonora Mexico. Cloud tops have been cooling
over the northern portion of this MCS during the past hour, but were
warming over the northern portion of the system.

14/00Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 0.99 inch was
nearly one quarter of an inch higher versus 24 hours ago. The 14/02Z
HRRR and 14/00Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM were nearly identical with
depicting precip-free conditions the rest of tonight and into mid-
morning Thursday. However, the HRRR depicted the potential for a
shower/tstm to develop by 10 pm just west of Tucson. An outflow
boundary was advancing northward into the southern portion of the
Tucson metro area as of this writing. Am inclined to not support the
HRRR scenario given the markedly more-stable environment, as the
14/00Z KTWC sounding MUCAPE was only 185 J/kg.

For this forecast update, will maintain isolated showers/tstms until
11 pm mainly near the International border adjacent Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Am opting for precip-free conditions late tonight
thru Thursday morning.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA northwest and south of KOLS and east of KDUG
ending by 14/09Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA to return Thursday afternoon
and evening south-to-southeast of KTUS, and particularly near the
International border. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA to also occur Thursday
afternoon/evening across the White Mountains northeast of KSAD.

Otherwise, convective debris clouds around 10k-15k ft msl
dissipating late tonight with clear skies or mostly clear skies
Thursday morning. A few to occasionally broken clouds at 10k-15k ft
msl Thursday afternoon and evening. Surface wind variable in
direction mostly less than 12 kts through the period, except gusts
near 40 kts vicinity -TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday
south-to-southeast of Tucson, and across the White Mountains
northeast of Safford. Thunderstorm coverage should increase this
weekend, then scattered thunderstorms across much of the area Monday
into next Wednesday. Outside of thunderstorm winds, expect typical
diurnal upslope and down valley patterns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /258 PM MST/...Water vapor imagery shows the ridge
parked over southern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico, with a
`relatively` dry westerly flow across California, Arizona and New
Mexico. Visible and IR satellite imagery shows cumulus development
over parts of Santa Cruz and southern Cochise counties, with mostly
clear skies elsewhere over my forecast area.

Overnight, moisture increased as a result of outflows to our south
and a modest surge up the Gulf of California. The 13/12Z KTWC
sounding shows a PW of 1.21 inches, which is up 0.33 inches from 24
hours ago. In addition, the U of A GPS PW shows a value of around
1.2 inches as of 1845Z. Dewpoint temperatures as of 21Z (2 PM MST)
ranged from the lower 40s to the mid 50s along the international
border. These values represent a 24 hour change of around 7 to 13
degs warmer/wetter for the Tucson area and 7 to 9 degs warmer/wetter
for the Nogales/Sierra Vista/Douglas region. The 13/18Z CIRA LPW
Total shows values of around an inch that cover a large part of my
forecast area, with much higher values to our south over much of
Sonora and the Gulf of California. For example, Hermosillo (MMHO)
showed a value of 1.7 inches, with similar readings all the way up
to the northern Gulf of California. Even some areas of the central
gulf over 2 inches and small areas approaching 3 inches south of
MMHO.

The 13/12Z U of A WRF/NAM & GFS shows isolated to scattered activity
developing this afternoon over extreme northeast Sonora, Mexico with
very little of this activity bleeding over into Arizona. For
Thursday it shows a similar solution, but with activity occurring a
bit farther west with very little potential over Arizona. That said,
the models did not capture the ongoing strong cells that are
currently over southwestern parts of Cochise county, southeast of
the Sierra Vista area. So, with abundant moisture just to our south
and southwest, will keep the mention of at least isolated storms
from around Nogales to Douglas and beyond for Thursday and Friday,
even though the high resolution models keep this activity to our
south.

By the weekend and beyond, models want to take the high and move it
well to our east or northeast resulting in a more east to southeast
wind regime in the mid levels. In addition, disturbances rotating
around the southern periphery of the high will affect the Desert
Southwest from time to time. So, thunderstorms chances will increase
through the weekend and especially early next week with scattered
POPs area-wide, except for the far western deserts near Ajo and
Organ Pipe where only isolated storms are expected.

For Tucson, high temperatures will generally range from 5 to 7 degs
above normal Thursday through Saturday and 2 to 4 degs above normal
Sunday through Wednesday. Low temps will range from 3 to 5 degs
above normal each morning.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Leins




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Water vapor imagery showing upper wave rotating north into central Canada around an upper low over southern Saskatchewan, with another wave forming to its west. Overnight convective complex had dissipated over southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri with southeast winds returning early in the day. This has allowed rather moist air to return and status to be prevalent for most areas early this afternoon. Weak surface trough remains over the area from southwest to northeast. Precipitation chances remain the main challenge through Wednesday afternoon. Surface-based convection looking more and more unlikely this afternoon and evening with destabilization retarded by the stratus. A weak mid-level wave appears to have initiated a few elevated showers in central portions of the area and isolated activity seems possible into the late afternoon as this moves off. The more active period should come in the late evening to overnight hours as the low level jet increases resulting in decent convergence and isentropic lift around 850mb. With little other focusing/forcing mechanism and little model agreement, have kept pops in chance range, highest in east where the best moisture/upglide is suggested. Elevated shear and CAPE values could support some severe wind and hail. Thickness and Corfidi vectors suggest activity propagating southeast with time and have followed along in the overnight and early morning hours. Next front still looking to enter the area from the northwest in the late afternoon. Expect better insolation ahead of this front for more potential for storms with it though mid level capping aloft does look to increase somewhat. Will keep chance pops mainly in the north. Severe weather potential exists here too with wind and hail the main issues in steep mid and low level lapse rates. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Wednesday Night through Friday... Speed and position of the incoming front for Wednesday evening into the overnight hours has some timing differences both in synoptic models and mesoscale propagation, but for the most part sweeps the front and associated convection across the area in this time period. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible but difficult to pinpoint depending on the speed of the boundary, but should be noted as a hazard. Atmosphere looks to have a chance to heat up and destabilize before the boundary comes in, and as such these storms may bring damaging winds or hail as a hazard as well. Could likely see a break between overnight storms and redevelopment on Thursday late, before once again being reignited along and to our south as the low level jet increases. Both Wednesday night and Thursday night models also indicate shortwave trofs moving over the frontal boundary and aiding in convective development. Think the front will be shifted southward into Friday as high pressure moves into the Central Plains from the northeast, and have diminished and shifted chances to the south as a result. Highs Thursday are forecast near 90, and a few degrees cooler on Friday behind the front in the middle 80s. Friday Night through Tuesday... Shortwaves in the synoptic flow leave the weekend in another unsettled pattern. Chances for storms are seen Friday night through Sunday night, although Sunday looks like dry periods will be possible during the afternoon and evening. Monday and Tuesday look to be dry as an upper level high pressure system moves over the Central Plains. As for temperatures through the period, highs will range from the mid-80s to lower 90s, with seasonable low temperatures near the lower 70s forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Short term concerns are low cloud that continues to develop northeast out of south central Kansas. Believe MVFR cigs will move in shortly at FOE and TOP and expect some rises to occur with diurnal trends. With a more stable boundary layer resulting, pushed back TS mention to overnight when low level jet should form. If storms do not form, will need to watch for wind shear potential. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...67/Heller AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 ...Upated long term section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 An are of low pressure will slide westward along the KS/OK border this evening reaching far southwestern Kansas by sunrise tomorrow. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will shift from central Kansas tonight into western Kansas by sunrise tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions are expected with the exception of across northern Kansas where a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible after midnight. The frontal boundary slides back east tomorrow do to an upper level disturbance moves into the area. A few thunderstorms may form along this boundary late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, mainly across central Kansas. Winds will generally be from the southeast tonight shifting to more of a northerly direction tomorrow as the frontal boundary moves through the CWA. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the mid 60s across eastern Colorado to mid 70s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into the upper 90s with some areas along the KS/OK border reaching around 100 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday as upper level disturbances moves through the area with an upslope easterly component of the wind at the surface. A few storms Thursday afternoon may become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. Moisture will be abundant in the lower levels of the atmosphere creating an increase of cloudiness across western Kansas. Thunderstorms chances look to be confined across central Kansas Saturday morning with decreasing cloudiness as the day progresses. Models then suggest the upper level high across the Southern United States to build and shift northward into the remainder of the Plains. This will bring a drier weather pattern to western Kansas into at least the first part of next week. As for temperatures, highs look to be in the 90s Thursday then upper 80s to lower 90s Friday. A warming trend is expected this weekend into the first part of next week reaching into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees by Sunday. Lows look to dip into the 60s through Friday night then increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s this weekend into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with the exception of around the HYS terminal where a few thunderstorms could bring MVFR to IFR conditions towards sunrise tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the east to northeast at less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 98 69 94 / 10 10 10 40 GCK 68 97 68 92 / 10 10 10 30 EHA 69 100 67 95 / 10 10 10 30 LBL 72 101 69 97 / 10 10 10 30 HYS 69 97 69 89 / 30 20 20 30 P28 76 103 72 97 / 10 20 20 50 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated near the Canadian border over southern Manitoba and southwest Ontario. South of trough...seasonably strong WSW mid/upper flow was observed extending south across the Central Plains states. Isolated storms may develop late this afternoon/evening along a sfc trough axis over NW OK extending into south central KS where sfc heating/lower 70 dewpoints may be sufficient to erode the cap...however the threat remains conditional with H7 temperatures of 15-16C observed on the afternoon analysis. There is slightly higher confidence that widely scattered storms will develop in the 02-03z timeframe over portions of south central and southeast KS as the llj increases waa/low lvl moisture transport into the area. As the diffuse front lifts northward this evening...other storms may develop over portions of central KS. Much of this activity may remain just north and east outside of our area of responsibility but maintained pops over mainly southeast KS after midnight as some of this activity may develop SSE impacting the area through the early morning hours on Wed. The remnant frontal boundary may become a focus for deep moist convection again on Wed afternoon. Prior to storm development, afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s allowing heat indices to exceed the century mark once again. Storms developing across central KS may dive SSE across much of the area again on Wed night as the low lvl moisture transport is progged to ramp up once again. Any storm developing on Wed afternoon/evening will have the potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds as well as torrential rain with pwats running 125-150 percent of normal with warm cloud depths progged to exceed 3500 m. Thu-Fri...The potential for severe storms will return on Thursday with seasonably strong mid-lvl flow and impressive deep layer shear for mid July. Overnight/early morning convection may force the effective front further south which lowers confidence a bit and the cap is progged to weaken considerably which may allow storms to develop by midday. This could minimize some of the threat for severe storms across the area. The best chance for severe storms appears to remain across southern KS within a post-frontal easterly upslope regime through the afternoon and evening hours as a subtle pv anomaly approaches late in the period. Pwats are progged to rise above 2 inches across southern KS while warm cloud depths exceed 4000 meters supporting efficient rain production. Excessive rain and flooding may become a concern Thursday evening and Thursday night across southern KS. The front is expected to be forced south into northern OK on Fri while possibly mixing north late in the day or overnight on Friday providing a focus for additional showers and storms. Seasonably cool temperatures with highs in the upper 80s are expected on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 The pesky diffuse frontal boundary could linger across the area into Sat providing a focus for additional showers and storms. Shear/buoyancy profiles would suggest any storm that develops on Sat would have the potential to become severe. As we move in the latter half of the weekend and early next week a pattern change is expected. Hot and dry weather is expected to return as the subtropical ridge builds over the Central Plains states bringing above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Areas of MVFR/VFR ceilings should gradually improve by mid afternoon across central and south-central Kansas as diurnal heating increases. Isolated thunderstorms may develop early this evening from northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas along an inverted surface trough axis and remnant outflow boundary. A more favorable area for storm genesis may be toward mid-late evening across east-central/northeast Kansas as a 40 knot southerly low-level jet ramps up with isentropic upglide. Will include VCTS mentions at SLN...ICT...and CNU terminals for now and adjust as needed. Thermal low sets up over southwest Kansas Wednesday, with breezy southerly winds expected along/east of I-135. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 74 97 71 92 / 20 10 30 50 Hutchinson 73 99 70 91 / 20 20 30 50 Newton 73 96 70 90 / 40 20 30 50 ElDorado 73 95 71 90 / 30 10 40 50 Winfield-KWLD 75 96 72 93 / 20 10 20 50 Russell 70 98 68 89 / 20 20 20 40 Great Bend 70 99 69 90 / 20 20 20 40 Salina 72 99 70 89 / 30 20 40 40 McPherson 72 99 70 90 / 30 20 30 50 Coffeyville 74 94 73 92 / 30 20 30 40 Chanute 73 94 72 90 / 30 20 50 40 Iola 73 93 71 90 / 40 20 50 40 Parsons-KPPF 74 94 72 91 / 30 20 30 40 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MWM LONG TERM...MWM AVIATION...JMC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 205 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Dry conditions will prevail this afternoon with increasing cloudiness this afternoon and evening in advance of a fast moving short wave followed by a warm front. Short term guidance has come into better agreement at midday as the HRRR and RAP have increasingly moved toward the NAM12 and SREF solutions. The ARW and NMM models however, have backed off on precip chances. Overall, I increased PoPs across the CWA in response to the model guidance coming into better agreement. The environment will become increasingly favorable for thunderstorms around or after 00Z in eastern Colorado, spreading eastward into northwest Kansas as we head through the evening and overnight. CAPE values will increase through the afternoon to near 2100 J/Kg as the warm front approaches with bulk shear at 30kt to 50kt (RAP), and DCAPE in the 400 J/Kg to 1000 J/Kg range. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms that could include large hail and damaging wind gusts. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016 Low chances for thunderstorms will continue Wednesday night and Thursday morning in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage. Favorable low level upslope combined with weak shortwave trough aloft will result in limited coverage during those time periods...but increasing Thursday afternoon and evening with destabilization. Moderate to strong instability is forecast with deep layer shear of 40-50kts...an environment conducive to supercells. Only negative is lack of well-defined synoptic scale forcing which may limit overall coverage of storms. The wet pattern continues into Friday with the upper flow becoming more northwest and possible embedded shortwave trough providing lift. Afternoon instability not as impressive as Thursday...only moderate values are forecast...although deep layer shear remains around 40kts. Severe storms will be possible once again. Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday...then below normal on Thursday and Friday. Upper ridge will begin to strengthen over the weekend. Other than some isolated storms Saturday afternoon developing on the higher terrain of eastern Colorado a hot and dry period will begin for the region. This will continue through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will return to the upper 90s/lower 100s by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites through the early afternoon with increasing cloudiness as we head into the late afternoon and early evening. Winds will remain under 15kt and gradually shift to the south throughout the day. Thunderstorms may develop overnight along a warm front and pass within the vicinity of both TAF sites. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...TL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over portions of AR. The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail. Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time. While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large hail. Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries. && .LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl pass acrs the region. For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story. Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s... with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the FA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 72 88 70 / 40 50 40 20 Camden AR 95 78 93 75 / 30 30 30 30 Harrison AR 91 69 86 68 / 50 60 40 30 Hot Springs AR 94 74 91 73 / 50 30 40 30 Little Rock AR 95 74 91 74 / 50 40 40 30 Monticello AR 95 76 93 74 / 50 30 40 30 Mount Ida AR 93 73 91 72 / 40 40 40 30 Mountain Home AR 92 69 87 69 / 50 60 40 30 Newport AR 93 73 88 71 / 40 50 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 94 75 92 74 / 50 30 40 30 Russellville AR 94 73 90 72 / 40 50 40 30 Searcy AR 94 73 89 71 / 40 50 40 30 Stuttgart AR 94 74 90 73 / 50 40 40 30 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Short Term...62 / Long Term...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000 MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east- southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see highs reach the mid to upper 80s. Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western counties until after 12Z FRI. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS. This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS. This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 This is a low confidence forecast with fog reducing VIS conds expected especially at TOP near river bottoms for a time overnight before an organizing cluster of storms moves ESE into the area after 10z with CIGS that should diminish any fog but would also introduce TSRA risks at the TAF sites after 10z. Various model solutions abound but will play a scenario which brings at least sct convection around the TAF sites after 10z. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Sanders AVIATION...Omitt Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 .UPDATE... Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state. Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon. 55 && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below... AVIATION... A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after 00Z as timing and location are uncertain. PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016) SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over portions of AR. The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail. Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time. While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large hail. Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries. LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl pass acrs the region. For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story. Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s... with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the FA. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000 MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east- southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see highs reach the mid to upper 80s. Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western counties until after 12Z FRI. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS. This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS. This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 VLIFR visibilities will continue through 13Z at the Topeka terminals. Visibilities are expected to improve to VFR after 13Z. An area of showers across north-central KS is expected to move across MHK between 13Z and 15Z and the Topeka terminals between 15Z and 17Z. There is a possibility for shower and thunderstorm activity at all terminals late this afternoon and evening, however confidence is very low due to lack of forcing in the area. Fog is also possible near dawn tomorrow morning, will defer any mention to future outlooks. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ012- 022>024-026-036-038>040-055. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Sanders AVIATION...Baerg Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z. Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement of this system. An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west of the initial system...and again move to the southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z. Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will provide support for convection during the rest of this period. Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally enhanced...pulse type single cells. && .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be "ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas. There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the mid plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20 Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40 Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40 Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30 Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30 Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40 Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30 Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30 Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30 Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30 Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30 Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 .AVIATION... Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z. Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06 and 15/15z. 55 && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 UPDATE... Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state. Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon. 55 PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below... AVIATION... A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after 00Z as timing and location are uncertain. PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016) SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over portions of AR. The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail. Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time. While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large hail. Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries. LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl pass acrs the region. For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story. Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s... with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the FA. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form, aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains. Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity. Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances, but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will help support a marginal severe weather concern. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of convection at the start of the period, while the other operational models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains. Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border. High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through Thursday. Lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Expect light winds and mostly clear skies overnight which lead to areas of dense fog last night however dewpoints are much lower across the TAF sites tonight. Thus will keep mention of MVFR VIS conds developing but no lower than that at this point. Any convective clusters should stay in NE through 15Z with some risk for t-storms at MHK by 18z Fri. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form, aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains. Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity. Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances, but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will help support a marginal severe weather concern. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of convection at the start of the period, while the other operational models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains. Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border. High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through Thursday. Lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Spotty showers across South-Central Nebraska will continue to dissipate as much drier mid-level is in place across Eastern Kansas. As for thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening...Confidence continues to increase for all terminals remaining dry. The other concern is the potential for fog Friday morning. At this point, confidence remains low, as mid-level cloud cover may hinder fog development. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000 MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east- southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see highs reach the mid to upper 80s. Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western counties until after 12Z FRI. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS. This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS. This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Spotty showers across South-Central Nebraska will continue to dissipate as much drier mid-level is in place across Eastern Kansas. As for thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening...Confidence continues to increase for all terminals remaining dry. The other concern is the potential for fog Friday morning. At this point, confidence remains low, as mid-level cloud cover may hinder fog development. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Sanders AVIATION...Baerg