Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/14/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
850 PM MST WED JUL 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture returning to the area from the south will
bring isolated showers and thunderstorms south to southeast of
Tucson through Friday during the afternoon hours, with better
coverage possible nearest the border. Deeper moisture pushing in
from the south will then increase thunderstorm coverage throughout
the area Sunday through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
just south of this forecast area across northeastern Sonora at this
time. The showers and thunderstorms that occurred earlier this
afternoon and evening had dissipated in southeast Arizona. The bulk
of the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening occurred
in Santa Cruz County and Cochise County. Rainfall amounts were
mostly from a few hundredths of an inch to around one half of an
inch. However, two gauges recorded amounts of 0.94 inch and 1.38
inches. Please see the AWIPS product PHXPNSTWC /WMO Header NOUS45
KTWC/ for detail.
Otherwise, clear skies prevail across much of southeast Arizona at
this time. The exception is from near the Tucson metro area and
locales south-to-southeast of Tucson, where scattered to overcast
mid-level convective debris cloudiness exists. Meanwhile, IR/Water
vapor satellite imagery depict yet another large MCS over east-
central and southern Sonora Mexico. Cloud tops have been cooling
over the northern portion of this MCS during the past hour, but were
warming over the northern portion of the system.
14/00Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 0.99 inch was
nearly one quarter of an inch higher versus 24 hours ago. The 14/02Z
HRRR and 14/00Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM were nearly identical with
depicting precip-free conditions the rest of tonight and into mid-
morning Thursday. However, the HRRR depicted the potential for a
shower/tstm to develop by 10 pm just west of Tucson. An outflow
boundary was advancing northward into the southern portion of the
Tucson metro area as of this writing. Am inclined to not support the
HRRR scenario given the markedly more-stable environment, as the
14/00Z KTWC sounding MUCAPE was only 185 J/kg.
For this forecast update, will maintain isolated showers/tstms until
11 pm mainly near the International border adjacent Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Am opting for precip-free conditions late tonight
thru Thursday morning.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA northwest and south of KOLS and east of KDUG
ending by 14/09Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA to return Thursday afternoon
and evening south-to-southeast of KTUS, and particularly near the
International border. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA to also occur Thursday
afternoon/evening across the White Mountains northeast of KSAD.
Otherwise, convective debris clouds around 10k-15k ft msl
dissipating late tonight with clear skies or mostly clear skies
Thursday morning. A few to occasionally broken clouds at 10k-15k ft
msl Thursday afternoon and evening. Surface wind variable in
direction mostly less than 12 kts through the period, except gusts
near 40 kts vicinity -TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday
south-to-southeast of Tucson, and across the White Mountains
northeast of Safford. Thunderstorm coverage should increase this
weekend, then scattered thunderstorms across much of the area Monday
into next Wednesday. Outside of thunderstorm winds, expect typical
diurnal upslope and down valley patterns.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /258 PM MST/...Water vapor imagery shows the ridge
parked over southern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico, with a
`relatively` dry westerly flow across California, Arizona and New
Mexico. Visible and IR satellite imagery shows cumulus development
over parts of Santa Cruz and southern Cochise counties, with mostly
clear skies elsewhere over my forecast area.
Overnight, moisture increased as a result of outflows to our south
and a modest surge up the Gulf of California. The 13/12Z KTWC
sounding shows a PW of 1.21 inches, which is up 0.33 inches from 24
hours ago. In addition, the U of A GPS PW shows a value of around
1.2 inches as of 1845Z. Dewpoint temperatures as of 21Z (2 PM MST)
ranged from the lower 40s to the mid 50s along the international
border. These values represent a 24 hour change of around 7 to 13
degs warmer/wetter for the Tucson area and 7 to 9 degs warmer/wetter
for the Nogales/Sierra Vista/Douglas region. The 13/18Z CIRA LPW
Total shows values of around an inch that cover a large part of my
forecast area, with much higher values to our south over much of
Sonora and the Gulf of California. For example, Hermosillo (MMHO)
showed a value of 1.7 inches, with similar readings all the way up
to the northern Gulf of California. Even some areas of the central
gulf over 2 inches and small areas approaching 3 inches south of
MMHO.
The 13/12Z U of A WRF/NAM & GFS shows isolated to scattered activity
developing this afternoon over extreme northeast Sonora, Mexico with
very little of this activity bleeding over into Arizona. For
Thursday it shows a similar solution, but with activity occurring a
bit farther west with very little potential over Arizona. That said,
the models did not capture the ongoing strong cells that are
currently over southwestern parts of Cochise county, southeast of
the Sierra Vista area. So, with abundant moisture just to our south
and southwest, will keep the mention of at least isolated storms
from around Nogales to Douglas and beyond for Thursday and Friday,
even though the high resolution models keep this activity to our
south.
By the weekend and beyond, models want to take the high and move it
well to our east or northeast resulting in a more east to southeast
wind regime in the mid levels. In addition, disturbances rotating
around the southern periphery of the high will affect the Desert
Southwest from time to time. So, thunderstorms chances will increase
through the weekend and especially early next week with scattered
POPs area-wide, except for the far western deserts near Ajo and
Organ Pipe where only isolated storms are expected.
For Tucson, high temperatures will generally range from 5 to 7 degs
above normal Thursday through Saturday and 2 to 4 degs above normal
Sunday through Wednesday. Low temps will range from 3 to 5 degs
above normal each morning.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Leins
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
Water vapor imagery showing upper wave rotating north into central
Canada around an upper low over southern Saskatchewan, with another
wave forming to its west. Overnight convective complex had
dissipated over southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri with
southeast winds returning early in the day. This has allowed rather
moist air to return and status to be prevalent for most areas early
this afternoon. Weak surface trough remains over the area from
southwest to northeast.
Precipitation chances remain the main challenge through Wednesday
afternoon. Surface-based convection looking more and more unlikely
this afternoon and evening with destabilization retarded by the
stratus. A weak mid-level wave appears to have initiated a few
elevated showers in central portions of the area and isolated
activity seems possible into the late afternoon as this moves off.
The more active period should come in the late evening to overnight
hours as the low level jet increases resulting in decent convergence
and isentropic lift around 850mb. With little other focusing/forcing
mechanism and little model agreement, have kept pops in chance
range, highest in east where the best moisture/upglide is suggested.
Elevated shear and CAPE values could support some severe wind and
hail. Thickness and Corfidi vectors suggest activity propagating
southeast with time and have followed along in the overnight and
early morning hours. Next front still looking to enter the area
from the northwest in the late afternoon. Expect better insolation
ahead of this front for more potential for storms with it though
mid level capping aloft does look to increase somewhat. Will keep
chance pops mainly in the north. Severe weather potential exists
here too with wind and hail the main issues in steep mid and low
level lapse rates.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Speed and position of the incoming front for Wednesday evening into
the overnight hours has some timing differences both in synoptic
models and mesoscale propagation, but for the most part sweeps the
front and associated convection across the area in this time period.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible but difficult to pinpoint
depending on the speed of the boundary, but should be noted as a
hazard. Atmosphere looks to have a chance to heat up and destabilize
before the boundary comes in, and as such these storms may bring
damaging winds or hail as a hazard as well.
Could likely see a break between overnight storms and
redevelopment on Thursday late, before once again being reignited
along and to our south as the low level jet increases. Both
Wednesday night and Thursday night models also indicate shortwave
trofs moving over the frontal boundary and aiding in convective
development. Think the front will be shifted southward into Friday
as high pressure moves into the Central Plains from the northeast,
and have diminished and shifted chances to the south as a result.
Highs Thursday are forecast near 90, and a few degrees cooler on
Friday behind the front in the middle 80s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Shortwaves in the synoptic flow leave the weekend in another
unsettled pattern. Chances for storms are seen Friday night through
Sunday night, although Sunday looks like dry periods will be
possible during the afternoon and evening. Monday and Tuesday look
to be dry as an upper level high pressure system moves over the
Central Plains. As for temperatures through the period, highs will
range from the mid-80s to lower 90s, with seasonable low
temperatures near the lower 70s forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
Short term concerns are low cloud that continues to develop
northeast out of south central Kansas. Believe MVFR cigs will move
in shortly at FOE and TOP and expect some rises to occur with
diurnal trends. With a more stable boundary layer resulting,
pushed back TS mention to overnight when low level jet should
form. If storms do not form, will need to watch for wind shear
potential.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
...Upated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
An are of low pressure will slide westward along the KS/OK border
this evening reaching far southwestern Kansas by sunrise tomorrow.
Meanwhile, an associated warm front will shift from central Kansas
tonight into western Kansas by sunrise tomorrow. Partly cloudy
skies and dry conditions are expected with the exception of across
northern Kansas where a slight chance of thunderstorms will be
possible after midnight. The frontal boundary slides back east
tomorrow do to an upper level disturbance moves into the area. A
few thunderstorms may form along this boundary late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow evening, mainly across central Kansas.
Winds will generally be from the southeast tonight shifting to
more of a northerly direction tomorrow as the frontal boundary
moves through the CWA. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to
range from the mid 60s across eastern Colorado to mid 70s across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the upper 90s with some areas along the KS/OK border reaching
around 100 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday as
upper level disturbances moves through the area with an upslope
easterly component of the wind at the surface. A few storms
Thursday afternoon may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main concern. Moisture will be abundant in the
lower levels of the atmosphere creating an increase of cloudiness
across western Kansas. Thunderstorms chances look to be confined
across central Kansas Saturday morning with decreasing cloudiness
as the day progresses. Models then suggest the upper level high
across the Southern United States to build and shift northward
into the remainder of the Plains. This will bring a drier weather
pattern to western Kansas into at least the first part of next
week. As for temperatures, highs look to be in the 90s Thursday
then upper 80s to lower 90s Friday. A warming trend is expected
this weekend into the first part of next week reaching into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees by Sunday. Lows look to dip into
the 60s through Friday night then increase into the upper 60s to
lower 70s this weekend into the early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with the
exception of around the HYS terminal where a few thunderstorms
could bring MVFR to IFR conditions towards sunrise tomorrow. Winds
will generally be from the east to northeast at less than 10
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 98 69 94 / 10 10 10 40
GCK 68 97 68 92 / 10 10 10 30
EHA 69 100 67 95 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 72 101 69 97 / 10 10 10 30
HYS 69 97 69 89 / 30 20 20 30
P28 76 103 72 97 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated near the Canadian border
over southern Manitoba and southwest Ontario. South of
trough...seasonably strong WSW mid/upper flow was observed extending
south across the Central Plains states.
Isolated storms may develop late this afternoon/evening along a
sfc trough axis over NW OK extending into south central KS where
sfc heating/lower 70 dewpoints may be sufficient to erode the
cap...however the threat remains conditional with H7 temperatures
of 15-16C observed on the afternoon analysis. There is slightly
higher confidence that widely scattered storms will develop in the
02-03z timeframe over portions of south central and southeast KS
as the llj increases waa/low lvl moisture transport into the area.
As the diffuse front lifts northward this evening...other storms
may develop over portions of central KS. Much of this activity
may remain just north and east outside of our area of responsibility
but maintained pops over mainly southeast KS after midnight as
some of this activity may develop SSE impacting the area through
the early morning hours on Wed.
The remnant frontal boundary may become a focus for deep moist
convection again on Wed afternoon. Prior to storm development,
afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s
allowing heat indices to exceed the century mark once again. Storms
developing across central KS may dive SSE across much of the area
again on Wed night as the low lvl moisture transport is progged to
ramp up once again. Any storm developing on Wed afternoon/evening
will have the potential to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds as well as torrential rain with pwats running 125-150
percent of normal with warm cloud depths progged to exceed 3500
m.
Thu-Fri...The potential for severe storms will return on Thursday
with seasonably strong mid-lvl flow and impressive deep layer shear
for mid July. Overnight/early morning convection may force the
effective front further south which lowers confidence a bit and the
cap is progged to weaken considerably which may allow storms to
develop by midday. This could minimize some of the threat for
severe storms across the area. The best chance for severe storms
appears to remain across southern KS within a post-frontal
easterly upslope regime through the afternoon and evening hours as
a subtle pv anomaly approaches late in the period. Pwats are
progged to rise above 2 inches across southern KS while warm cloud
depths exceed 4000 meters supporting efficient rain production.
Excessive rain and flooding may become a concern Thursday evening
and Thursday night across southern KS.
The front is expected to be forced south into northern OK on Fri
while possibly mixing north late in the day or overnight on Friday
providing a focus for additional showers and storms. Seasonably cool
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s are expected on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
The pesky diffuse frontal boundary could linger across the area
into Sat providing a focus for additional showers and storms.
Shear/buoyancy profiles would suggest any storm that develops on
Sat would have the potential to become severe. As we move in the
latter half of the weekend and early next week a pattern change is
expected. Hot and dry weather is expected to return as the
subtropical ridge builds over the Central Plains states bringing
above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Areas of MVFR/VFR ceilings should gradually improve by mid
afternoon across central and south-central Kansas as diurnal
heating increases.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop early this evening from
northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas
along an inverted surface trough axis and remnant outflow boundary.
A more favorable area for storm genesis may be toward mid-late
evening across east-central/northeast Kansas as a 40 knot
southerly low-level jet ramps up with isentropic upglide. Will
include VCTS mentions at SLN...ICT...and CNU terminals for now and
adjust as needed.
Thermal low sets up over southwest Kansas Wednesday, with breezy
southerly winds expected along/east of I-135.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 97 71 92 / 20 10 30 50
Hutchinson 73 99 70 91 / 20 20 30 50
Newton 73 96 70 90 / 40 20 30 50
ElDorado 73 95 71 90 / 30 10 40 50
Winfield-KWLD 75 96 72 93 / 20 10 20 50
Russell 70 98 68 89 / 20 20 20 40
Great Bend 70 99 69 90 / 20 20 20 40
Salina 72 99 70 89 / 30 20 40 40
McPherson 72 99 70 90 / 30 20 30 50
Coffeyville 74 94 73 92 / 30 20 30 40
Chanute 73 94 72 90 / 30 20 50 40
Iola 73 93 71 90 / 40 20 50 40
Parsons-KPPF 74 94 72 91 / 30 20 30 40
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Dry conditions will prevail this afternoon with increasing
cloudiness this afternoon and evening in advance of a fast moving
short wave followed by a warm front. Short term guidance has come
into better agreement at midday as the HRRR and RAP have
increasingly moved toward the NAM12 and SREF solutions. The ARW and
NMM models however, have backed off on precip chances. Overall, I
increased PoPs across the CWA in response to the model guidance
coming into better agreement. The environment will become
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms around or after 00Z in
eastern Colorado, spreading eastward into northwest Kansas as we
head through the evening and overnight. CAPE values will increase
through the afternoon to near 2100 J/Kg as the warm front approaches
with bulk shear at 30kt to 50kt (RAP), and DCAPE in the 400 J/Kg to
1000 J/Kg range. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
that could include large hail and damaging wind gusts.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Low chances for thunderstorms will continue Wednesday night and
Thursday morning in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage.
Favorable low level upslope combined with weak shortwave trough
aloft will result in limited coverage during those time
periods...but increasing Thursday afternoon and evening with
destabilization. Moderate to strong instability is forecast with
deep layer shear of 40-50kts...an environment conducive to
supercells. Only negative is lack of well-defined synoptic scale
forcing which may limit overall coverage of storms. The wet
pattern continues into Friday with the upper flow becoming more
northwest and possible embedded shortwave trough providing lift.
Afternoon instability not as impressive as Thursday...only
moderate values are forecast...although deep layer shear remains
around 40kts. Severe storms will be possible once again.
Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday...then below normal
on Thursday and Friday.
Upper ridge will begin to strengthen over the weekend. Other than
some isolated storms Saturday afternoon developing on the higher
terrain of eastern Colorado a hot and dry period will begin for
the region. This will continue through at least Tuesday.
Temperatures will return to the upper 90s/lower 100s by the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites through the early
afternoon with increasing cloudiness as we head into the late
afternoon and early evening. Winds will remain under 15kt and
gradually shift to the south throughout the day. Thunderstorms
may develop overnight along a warm front and pass within the
vicinity of both TAF sites.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 72 88 70 / 40 50 40 20
Camden AR 95 78 93 75 / 30 30 30 30
Harrison AR 91 69 86 68 / 50 60 40 30
Hot Springs AR 94 74 91 73 / 50 30 40 30
Little Rock AR 95 74 91 74 / 50 40 40 30
Monticello AR 95 76 93 74 / 50 30 40 30
Mount Ida AR 93 73 91 72 / 40 40 40 30
Mountain Home AR 92 69 87 69 / 50 60 40 30
Newport AR 93 73 88 71 / 40 50 50 20
Pine Bluff AR 94 75 92 74 / 50 30 40 30
Russellville AR 94 73 90 72 / 40 50 40 30
Searcy AR 94 73 89 71 / 40 50 40 30
Stuttgart AR 94 74 90 73 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across
northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS
intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into
central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as
it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes
disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch
trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning
hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western
counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along
with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000
MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the
mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that
the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into
central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective
line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east-
southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the
southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours.
Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into
southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted
to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into
northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The
only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which
clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon
hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS
southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along
the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower
pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of
thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon
hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time
hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the
CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A
cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective
outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see
highs reach the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western
NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western
counties until after 12Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms
especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern
KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow
develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection
pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS.
This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move
to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The
low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over
central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some
isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support
isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern
KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level
wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for
linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious
feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning
timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at
this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could
unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS.
This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping
eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night
and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in
response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will
send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to
expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting
Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually
warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
This is a low confidence forecast with fog reducing VIS conds
expected especially at TOP near river bottoms for a time overnight before
an organizing cluster of storms moves ESE into the area after 10z
with CIGS that should diminish any fog but would also introduce
TSRA risks at the TAF sites after 10z. Various model solutions
abound but will play a scenario which brings at least sct
convection around the TAF sites after 10z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Omitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across
northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS
intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into
central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as
it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes
disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch
trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning
hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western
counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along
with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000
MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the
mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that
the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into
central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective
line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east-
southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the
southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours.
Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into
southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted
to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into
northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The
only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which
clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon
hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS
southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along
the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower
pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of
thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon
hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time
hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the
CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A
cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective
outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see
highs reach the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western
NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western
counties until after 12Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms
especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern
KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow
develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection
pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS.
This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move
to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The
low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over
central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some
isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support
isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern
KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level
wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for
linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious
feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning
timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at
this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could
unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS.
This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping
eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night
and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in
response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will
send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to
expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting
Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually
warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
VLIFR visibilities will continue through 13Z at the Topeka
terminals. Visibilities are expected to improve to VFR after 13Z.
An area of showers across north-central KS is expected to move
across MHK between 13Z and 15Z and the Topeka terminals between
15Z and 17Z. There is a possibility for shower and thunderstorm
activity at all terminals late this afternoon and evening, however
confidence is very low due to lack of forcing in the area. Fog is
also possible near dawn tomorrow morning, will defer any mention
to future outlooks.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ012-
022>024-026-036-038>040-055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.
Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday
evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of
convection at the start of the period, while the other operational
models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early
Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later
timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave
moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with
and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge
slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast
to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday
morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into
Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection
along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps
clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday
morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday
through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border.
High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming
into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central
Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Expect light winds and mostly clear skies overnight which lead to
areas of dense fog last night however dewpoints are much lower
across the TAF sites tonight. Thus will keep mention of MVFR VIS
conds developing but no lower than that at this point. Any
convective clusters should stay in NE through 15Z with some risk
for t-storms at MHK by 18z Fri.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.
Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday
evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of
convection at the start of the period, while the other operational
models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early
Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later
timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave
moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with
and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge
slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast
to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday
morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into
Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection
along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps
clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday
morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday
through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border.
High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming
into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central
Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Spotty showers
across South-Central Nebraska will continue to dissipate as much
drier mid-level is in place across Eastern Kansas. As for
thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening...Confidence
continues to increase for all terminals remaining dry. The other
concern is the potential for fog Friday morning. At this point,
confidence remains low, as mid-level cloud cover may hinder fog
development.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across
northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS
intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into
central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as
it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes
disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch
trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning
hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western
counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along
with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000
MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the
mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that
the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into
central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective
line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east-
southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the
southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours.
Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into
southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted
to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into
northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The
only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which
clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon
hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS
southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along
the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower
pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of
thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon
hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time
hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the
CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A
cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective
outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see
highs reach the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western
NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western
counties until after 12Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms
especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern
KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow
develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection
pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS.
This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move
to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The
low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over
central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some
isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support
isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern
KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level
wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for
linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious
feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning
timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at
this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could
unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS.
This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping
eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night
and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in
response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will
send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to
expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting
Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually
warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Spotty showers
across South-Central Nebraska will continue to dissipate as much
drier mid-level is in place across Eastern Kansas. As for
thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening...Confidence
continues to increase for all terminals remaining dry. The other
concern is the potential for fog Friday morning. At this point,
confidence remains low, as mid-level cloud cover may hinder fog
development.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg