Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/12/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Eureka CA

422 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and moist conditions will persist across the
interior of northwestern California through this evening, with a few
light showers possible today, mainly across northern Humboldt and
Del Norte counties, and maybe into the Trinity horn. For the
remainder of the week, dry conditions will prevail area-wide with
temperatures increasing across the interior.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The much talked about storm system continues to slowly churn south
just offshore from the Oregon coast. Forcing aloft associated with
this is starting to increase across northern portions of the
forecast area, with showers development increasing on the latest
Doppler radar loops. As has been the case the past couple of days,
northern Humboldt and Del Norte areas seem to be the favored spots,
especially along the coast. However, the radar loop also shows some
very small/light showers trying to make a run at locations south and
east of there. Have doubts that any of these showers will survive
the trip into Mendocino and Trinity counties due to lower surface
dewpoints, but some light drizzle isn`t totally impossible here.

Otherwise, the system will begin to depart the region today, with
any shower activity ending by mid to late afternoon. The one
exception to this could be far Del Norte County, as some wrap around
moisture could clip these areas.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

A return to a summertime pattern is on tap for the remainder of the
week. A zonal flow aloft will develop with surface high pressure
strengthening across the eastern Pacific. This will yield a classic
northerly flow setup along the coast, with episodic morning
stratus/fog possible. Farther inland, increasing temperatures under
mainly clear skies will dominate your weather this week. /PD

.AVIATION...Low clouds continue across the Redwood Coast and inland
to W Trinity County with patches of very light rain and drizzle.
Skies elsewhere are mostly clear. The HRRR model keeps patchy precip
around KACV through about 14Z while KCEC may see light precip into
the afternoon hours. Clouds are expected to erode over the interior
with daytime heating, but broken low cloudiness will likely hold
over the coastal terminals. As expected, N winds have remained up at
KUKI overnight. These winds will gradually subside through the
morning hours. Elsewhere, winds will be generally light. /SEC

.MARINE...Light winds will continue through today with the wind
direction more southerly N of Cape Mendocino this morning ahead of a
frontal trough. N winds are expected to return by tonight, and a
small craft advisory continues for the S offshore waters during that
time period. Winds will need to be monitored in the S nearshore
zone, but at this time, wind speeds are progged to remain just below
advisory criteria. More widespread northerlies are progged by the
middle of the this week as high pressure over the E Pacific rebuilds
toward the area and the inland thermal trough sharpens. /SEC

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
Wednesday for PZZ475.

Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of Long Island remains in control through
Wednesday. A prefrontal trough then approaches on Thursday and
passes through Thursday night into Friday morning. The trailing
cold front then moves through Friday night. High pressure builds
back in behind the front on Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Some slight adjustments were made regarding the temperatures,
dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match observed trends. The
forecast overall remains on track.

High pressure continues to build in from the west, and the center
of the high will pass overhead before moving offshore by daybreak
Tuesday.

Cirrus clouds decrease overnight with the high pressure center
moving closer and with some ridging aloft. With increasing low
level moisture and light onshore flow along with cooling
temperatures, can expect patchy fog to develop across interior
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and Long Island.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to around 70 in/around
NYC to the low to mid 60s for most coastal locations. Interior
and rural portions of the CWA will drop into the mid to upper
50s.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure centered south of Long Island and east of NJ,
return flow develops with increasing S-SW winds. Humidity levels
will increase and surface dewpoints climb into the low 60s
throughout. Temps creep up a bit as well, with highs generally in
the low to mid 80s near the coasts, and in the mid to upper 80s
across NYC and the interior. The heat index may approach 90 in
some of the warmer areas.

Tuesday night will feature clear skies and light winds once
again. Persistent southerly flow will allow dewpoints to continue
to creep up, and patchy fog is possible once again away from NYC.
Lows will generally be in the 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic facing beaches on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging will be centered offshore during Wednesday.
Resulting high pressure should still be strong enough to keep the CWA
dry during the day. Looks like mid level capping could prevent
shower development altogether, but there is still a slight chance
that a shower or thunderstorm develops just off to the west and
drifts into the far NW zones during the afternoon. Went a little
above guidance for high temps as models agree upon an 850mb
temperature of around 16C during the afternoon.

A prefrontal trough approaches on Thursday with supplemental lift
during the afternoon and nighttime as a shortwave approaches
and moves through. Capped pops at chance through the period, but
it would appear that the highest threat of showers and storms
will be in the afternoon and night.

The trough is progged to be right over the CWA during Friday
morning, so will leave in a chance of showers and storms during the
morning, then the boundary shifts east with a drying column during
the afternoon. 850mb temps are forecast to be 18-19C during the
afternoon, and with boundary layer winds with a westerly component,
high temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 90s for parts
of the city and urban NJ areas, and upper 80s to low 90s for just
about elsewhere. Assuming the boundary shifts east as progged,
drier air should mix down with daytime heating outside of any sea
breezes,keeping maximum heat index values below advisory criteria.

A dry cold front passage is expected Friday night with high pressure
keeping Saturday dry. Highs Saturday returning to normal levels
behind the front. A wave of low pressure may then develop along the
front to our south and potentially bring us rainfall at some period
from Saturday night to Sunday night, or even Monday morning. With
uncertainty of the eventual development, track, and timing of this
system, have opted for slight chc pops for most of this period.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains just south and east of the area through
Tuesday. This will result in mainly VFR conditions with southerly
winds. Gradient tightens Tuesday afternoon with some of the
coastal terminals increasing to around 15 kt.

Patchy MVFR BR at rural airports towards sunrise.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tue Night-Wed...VFR...though patchy early morning MVFR BR
possible outside the NYC Metro.
.Thu...Scattered to isolated mainly afternoon TS/SHRA with local
MVFR conds.
.Fri...VFR...CHC TS/SHRA in the morning.
.Sat...VFR.

.MARINE...
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight and settles
south of Long Island over the ocean waters through the mid-week
period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels during this
time as well as for the rest of the forecast period in the absence
of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
forecast period.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

High pressure continues to build in from the west, and the center
of the high will pass overhead before moving offshore by daybreak
Tuesday.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to around 70 in/around
NYC to the low to mid 60s for most coastal locations. Interior
and rural portions of the CWA will drop into the mid to upper
50s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic facing beaches on Tuesday.

Patchy MVFR BR at rural airports towards sunrise.

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
forecast period.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
946 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will become centered southeast of
New England during Tuesday. Heat and humidity will increase this
week with the high remaining centered offshore, bringing a
southwest flow of hot and humid air into the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat towards the end
of the week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
945 pm Update...

Quiet night. High clouds moving out of region per IR satellite,
which will leave mostly clear skies and light winds. This will
allow temperatures to drop off quickly overnight, especially in
interior valleys where patchy fog should also form. May also see
some fog near RI/MA South Coast. Lows in 50s to lower 60s look
good.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
The surface high becomes centered offshore during the
day, while upper level ridge builds towards our area from the west.
Southern New England gets into return low level SW flow which will
begin to bring warmer and eventually more humid air into region.
Mostly sunny skies expected, mainly from diurnal cumulus but could
see a few higher deck clouds as well. Temperatures rise well into
the 80s across much of the area. Exception will be along south
coastal MA/RI, where highs in the 70s to near 80 are expected.
Expecting an eventual sea breeze development along east coastal MA,
but may take into midday/early afternoon to get going and overcome
SW flow.

Tuesday night...
Surface high pressure centered offshore and light
SW return flow continues. Upper ridge axis extends over New England.
This will be a slightly warmer and more humid night, with lows in
the 60s. Could see some patchy valley fog once more, otherwise
mostly clear skies expected.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern shows steady heights through the week followed by
building heights off the Atlantic Sunday and Monday. Shortwave scale
shows an upper ridge with axis over New England Wednesday, shifting
southeast Thursday and Friday. Shortwave over the Upper Midwest
Wednesday moves into Eastern Canada and sweeps a weak shortwave
across New England Friday night. Subtropical high over the Atlantic
builds Sunday and Monday while another shortwave approaches from the
west on Monday.

General model agreement Wednesday to Friday, but uncertainty for
Saturday and Sunday. Both show the Friday night cold front stalling
to our south. Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF show dry weather Saturday
followed by a wave moving up the front spreading showers into our
area Sunday. Earlier runs showed that wave moving past with wet
weather Saturday followed by dry weather Sunday. All show high
pressure and dry weather Monday. Low confidence as to which will be
right for the weekend. We have chosen to compromise between the
two camps for now and allow the next couple of runs provide
clearer information.

Details...

Wednesday through Friday...

High pressure offshore with a developing southwest flow over the
region. This will bring in increasing dew points through the period.
Temperatures aloft also increase with 850-equivalent temps 16-17C
Wednesday increasing to 18-20C Thursday and Friday. Airmass also
becomes increasingly unstable each day with LIs near zero in the CT
Valley Wednesday but with limited cloud moisture, then sub-zero LIs
across much of the area Thursday and at least part of Friday. Based
on this, expect hot temps during this period with max temps either
side of 90 Wednesday, and 90-95 Thursday and Friday. Dew points
climb to around 70 by Friday morning so humidity levels will be at
least noticeable and eventually oppressive. There is a small chance
of a thunderstorm in far western MA Wednesday. Thunderstorms more
likely Thursday afternoon through Friday.

One concern...the GFS and EC both rush precipitation through on
Friday morning, while maintaining southwest winds most areas until
Friday evening. Perhaps this is focusing showers on a pre-frontal
trough and keeping the main front dry. Temps aloft stay warm
through the afternoon supporting the idea of a later cold fropa.
We massaged the available grid data to keep chance pops into mid
afternoon. Specific timing of convection is probably questionable
this far out, with the important idea being that there will be
precipitation during some part of Friday.

Saturday-Sunday-Monday...

Much uncertainty in the forecast and forecast data at this time. As
noted above, the 12z GFS and EC show a low pressure wave passing us
on Sunday with showers while much of the forecast grid data shows
showers on Saturday and dry on Sunday. Previous model suites also
went with wet weather on Saturday. We have hand-edited our database
to show chance pops both days. Expect later model runs will resolve
this timing to one day or the other. High pressure brings drier
seasonable weather on Monday.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight...High confidence.
VFR with mostly clear skies. Local MVFR/IFR possible overnight in
patchy valley fog, as well as a possibility for patchy
stratus/fog overnight along south coastal MA/southern RI.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR, with local MVFR possible Tuesday night in patchy valley fog
once again. Prevailing S/SW winds Tue which should prevent sea
breeze development along E MA coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. SW flow Tue should be just strong
enough to prevent sea breeze from coming onshore.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Friday... Moderate Confidence.

VFR. Areas if late night/early morning IFR in fog. Scattered
MVFR/IFR in afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Thursday and Friday. Winds becoming southwest much of the period.

Saturday... Low confidence.

VFR. Low confidence potential for MVFR/IFR developing in showers and
scattered thunderstorms.

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New England
through tonight, and becomes centered offshore during Tuesday. Light
and variable wind becomes prevailing SW later tonight and Tuesday,
except for local sea breezes redeveloping on Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds below 25 knots through the period. Seas mainly below 5 feet,
although there is potential for brief 5 foot seas on the outer
waters Thursday night and Friday. Winds becoming southwest for most
of the period. Areas of poor visibility in overnight and morning
fog. Scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Thursday and Friday.
Low confidence on showers for Saturday.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/NMB

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
945 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT...Mainly clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected overnight with some patchy fog likely developing in
river valleys.

It will be cool once again tonight, with low temperatures before
daybreak falling into the upper 40s to upper 50s for most areas.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday-Tuesday night, a weakening upper level shortwave will
approach from the Great Lakes, and then move southeast, grazing
southern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening. Weak dynamics and some
developing mid level warm advection should promote a period of mid
level clouds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but it appears that the
low levels should remain fairly dry. Therefore, other than clouds,
will keep out mention of any showers, although can not completely
rule out a sprinkle or two reaching the ground in some areas of
the SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region late Tuesday
afternoon/early Tuesday night. Otherwise, it will be warmer
Tuesday, with late day high temperatures reaching the mid/upper
80s in valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. For Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, low temperatures
should only fall into the mid/upper 60s in valley areas, and
generally upper 50s to lower 60s for higher elevations.

Wednesday-Wednesday night, a strengthening low level
south/southwest flow and at least some sunshine in the morning
should allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in
valley areas, with 80s even across higher terrain. The combination
of increasing moisture will contribute to enhanced instability
across western areas. Some models suggest isolated to scattered
convection develops late Wed afternoon into Wed night, mainly
across the western Adirondacks. Will include slight chance mention
of isolated showers/thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon for
areas west of the Hudson River, with some low chance mention
across the western Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills
into early Wednesday night. Dewpoints should climb into the
mid/upper 60s by late Wed afternoon, which should result in heat
indices reaching the mid 90s within the Hudson River Valley. Warm
and humid for Wed night, with some low clouds possibly developing.
Low temperatures should only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s
for most valley areas, and lower/mid 60s across higher elevations.

Thursday, another hot and humid day, although clouds and earlier
and more widespread convective development may preclude
temperatures from exceeding 90. For now, expect most valley areas
to reach 85-90, with lower/mid 80s across higher elevations.
However, if convection holds off until later in the day, and more
sunshine occurs, high temperatures could easily reach into the
lower 90s or slightly higher. Dewpoints should be higher than
Wednesday, reaching into the lower 70s in valleys, and mid/upper
60s. So, even if high temperatures only reach close to 90, heat
indices should still reach the upper 90s within much of the Hudson
River Valley. Should the possibility of even higher heat indices
increase, then heat advisories would be issued for some of these
areas. Scattered, mainly pulse-type thunderstorms are expected
Thursday afternoon, with locally heavy downpours likely as PWAT/s
increase to over 1.5-1.75 inches. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases
late Thursday across northwest areas close to 30 KT, so isolated
severe can not be ruled out, especially with any cells that merge
and develop associated cold pools, possibly resulting in isolated
strong wind gusts.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very active long term period is expected as hazy, hot and humid
weather along with scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in
the forecast for the period from Thursday night through
Saturday.

Thursday night and Friday...A cold front will be dropping slowly
southeast from the eastern Great Lakes with a wave of low pressure
moving northeast along it on Friday morning. The warm moist airmass
in place ahead of this frontal boundary will clash with the cooler
drier air behind it producing more showers and thunderstorms. The
MLMUCAPES on Friday are generally 500 to 1000 j/kg with the theta e
ridge axis not sliding east of the fa until late in the day. PWATS
remain in the 1.5 to 2.0+ range so more heavy rain is possible. At
this time mid level lapse rates are not overly strong generally
between 5.5 and 6 C/km, however 0-6 km bulk shear increase to 50 to
60+ kts across the forecast area Friday afternoon. Lows Thursday
night are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs on
Friday in the upper 70s to lower 90s.

Friday night and Saturday...The upper level low and associated vort
max will be crossing the region producing more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Lows Friday night are expected to be in the upper 50s
to upper 60s with highs on Saturday in the upper 60s to mid 80s.

Saturday night and Sunday at this time look dry as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the eastern Great Lakes. Lows on Saturday
night are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on
Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Overall expect temperatures to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal as well.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals well into the evening
hours. Chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning. This will be followed by a return ton VFR conditions for
the day on Tuesday.

Satellite imagery reveals few cumulus clouds across the region
with a canopy of thin cirrus streaming across the region. Further
upstream, a thicker canopy of high and mid level clouds (still
VFR) that may impact the region into this evening. Later tonight
is the forecast challenge as dewpoint depressions diminish and
some patchy mist/fog may develop. This would be most susceptible
at climatology favored locations (KGFL and KPSF). Skies will
return to sct045 sct-bkn250 during the day on Tuesday.

Winds will be light N-NW around 5 kt, becoming light and variable
or calm tonight. Winds shift to the south to southwest at speeds
less than 10 kts on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region.

Relative humidity values are expected to recover to percent this
afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 90 to near 100
percent tonight, with widespread dew formation likely. Minimum
values Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be generally 35 to 45
percent range.

Light/variable winds are expected overnight, with south winds of
10 mph or less Tuesday.

.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region. Precipitable water
values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to near 2 inches, 1-2 standard
deviations above normal, which means storms will be capable of
locally heavy downpours.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
757 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Some slight adjustments were made to the forecast regarding the
temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match
observed trends. Otherwise, the forecast overall remains on
track.

High pressure continues to build in from the west, and the center
of the high will pass overhead before moving offshore by daybreak
Tuesday.

Some initial higher coverage of cirrus clouds will decrease later
this evening with the high pressure center moving closer and with
some ridging aloft. Skies will further clear out overnight with
high pressure and its subsidence prevailing. With increasing low
level moisture and light onshore flow, can expect patchy fog to
develop across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley,
southern CT, and Long Island.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to around 70 in/around
NYC to the low to mid 60s for most coastal locations. Interior
portions of the CWA will drop into the upper 50s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic facing beaches on Tuesday.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains just south and east of the area through
Tuesday. This will result in mainly VFR conditions with southerly
winds. Gradient tightens Tuesday afternoon with some of the
coastal terminals increasing to around 15 kt.

Patchy MVFR BR at rural airports towards sunrise.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component
FCSTS can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: NE winds may persist through 01Z before
shifting around to the S/SE.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: NE winds may persist through 01Z before
shifting around to the S/SE.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
forecast period.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
708 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM EDT...Patchy high clouds continue to stream across
portions of the region, especially from around I-90 southward.
This may be at least in part in association with a jet max
retreating off the New England coast, with our area within its
right entrance region. This jet max is expected to translate
farther off the coast this evening, and should allow its influence
and associated high clouds to decrease.

So, partly cloudy this evening, then becoming mostly clear
overnight. Some patchy fog will likely develop in river valleys,
given that mixing was not very strong/deep this afternoon, and
afternoon dewpoints held in the 50s.

It will be cool once again tonight, with low temperatures before
daybreak falling into the 50s for most areas.

Overall expect temperatures to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal as well.

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals well into the evening
hours. Chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning. This will be followed by a return ton VFR conditions for
the day on Tuesday.