Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/11/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
811 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Let the wind advisory expire at 8 pm MDT as all affected zones
have decreased below the 45 mph threshold. Conditions will still
be breezy this evening with relative humidities below 15 percent
ahead of an approaching cold front. Therefore, extended the Red
Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for all affected zones.
UPDATE Issued at 429 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Added UTZ027 to the wind advisory in effect until 8 pm this
evening as wind gusts are already exceeding criteria at Bryson
Canyon with gusts in the low 50s. Canyonlands Airport has had
gusts to 43 mph, just below criteria but winds should increase as
the front gets closer this evening before sunset. All other
highlites remain on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An unseasonably strong Low Pressure system was working through
the Pacific NW today, then through the northern Rockies tonight.
The associated jet and moisture remain north of this forecast
area. Its dry cold front will work through NE Utah before sunset,
to near the I-70 corridor around midnight and into NW New Mexico
by Monday morning. Models are consistent with some Monday cooling
across region, around 15 degrees north, 10 degrees central, 5
degrees south.
Breezy conditions continue on Monday especially north near the
strongest pressure gradient, and south in the vicinity of the cold
front. Due to the dry conditions this keeps fire weather concerns
in the forecast. The slackening of the gradient Monday night will
allow for the coolest morning of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
A fast west-to-east flow dominates at least through Thursday with
westerlies streaming along the northern tier of states and a
subtropical ridge elongated along the southern tier. Friday the
pattern begins to amplify with troughing along the West Coast that
slips the subtropical High eastward. This opens the door to
monsoonal moisture intrusion from the south into the weekend.
There is still low confidence on the important details of this
moisture surge.
Near normal temperatures on Tuesday soar to five or more degrees
above normal for Thursday-Friday, then drop to near normal again
over the weekend with clouds and showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions dominate. However gusty winds remain a concern.
Strong pre-frontal southwest winds will continue until around
03z/sunset. The dry cold front will work from NW to SE through the
forecast area tonight. Frontal Passage will be around 03z at KVEL,
07z for KCNY KGJT, 10z for KMTJ KEGE KASE, 12z-14z for KTEX-KDRO.
Expect light to moderate turbulence tonight through Monday as
strong mixing winds continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Red Flag Warnings have been extended until midnight tonight as
conditions are still very dry and windy with criteria being met
ahead of the cold front. The cold front hasn`t reached the Uinta
Basin in northeast Utah as of 8 pm, but should work through NE
Utah within the next couple hours. The front sags through the
region tonight, into NW New Mexico by Monday morning. Expecting
conditions to remain dry and breezy until the cold front moves
through so extended Red Flag Warning until midnight tonight.
Observations behind the cold front are less breezy with higher
relative humidities. Therefore, decided to cancel the Fire Weather
Watch for Colorado Fire Zone 200 in NW Colorado due to higher RH
expected on Monday. The Fire Weather Watch for Colorado Fire Zone
207 for Monday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning due to the
proximity of the cold front and fire weather conditions likely to
be met.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ200-202-203-
205-207-290-292.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ207.
UT...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ486-487-490-
491.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/Joe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
811 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Let the wind advisory expire at 8 pm MDT as all affected zones
have decreased below the 45 mph threshold. Conditions will still
be breezy this evening with relative humidities below 15 percent
ahead of an approaching cold front. Therefore, extended the Red
Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for all affected zones.
UPDATE Issued at 429 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Added UTZ027 to the wind advisory in effect until 8 pm this
evening as wind gusts are already exceeding criteria at Bryson
Canyon with gusts in the low 50s. Canyonlands Airport has had
gusts to 43 mph, just below criteria but winds should increase as
the front gets closer this evening before sunset. All other
highlites remain on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An unseasonably strong Low Pressure system was working through
the Pacific NW today, then through the northern Rockies tonight.
The associated jet and moisture remain north of this forecast
area. Its dry cold front will work through NE Utah before sunset,
to near the I-70 corridor around midnight and into NW New Mexico
by Monday morning. Models are consistent with some Monday cooling
across region, around 15 degrees north, 10 degrees central, 5
degrees south.
Breezy conditions continue on Monday especially north near the
strongest pressure gradient, and south in the vicinity of the cold
front. Due to the dry conditions this keeps fire weather concerns
in the forecast. The slackening of the gradient Monday night will
allow for the coolest morning of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
A fast west-to-east flow dominates at least through Thursday with
westerlies streaming along the northern tier of states and a
subtropical ridge elongated along the southern tier. Friday the
pattern begins to amplify with troughing along the West Coast that
slips the subtropical High eastward. This opens the door to
monsoonal moisture intrusion from the south into the weekend.
There is still low confidence on the important details of this
moisture surge.
Near normal temperatures on Tuesday soar to five or more degrees
above normal for Thursday-Friday, then drop to near normal again
over the weekend with clouds and showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions dominate. However gusty winds remain a concern.
Strong pre-frontal southwest winds will continue until around
03z/sunset. The dry cold front will work from NW to SE through the
forecast area tonight. Frontal Passage will be around 03z at KVEL,
07z for KCNY KGJT, 10z for KMTJ KEGE KASE, 12z-14z for KTEX-KDRO.
Expect light to moderate turbulence tonight through Monday as
strong mixing winds continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Red Flag Warnings have been extended until midnight tonight as
conditions are still very dry and windy with criteria being met
ahead of the cold front. The cold front hasn`t reached the Uinta
Basin in northeast Utah as of 8 pm, but should work through NE
Utah within the next couple hours. The front sags through the
region tonight, into NW New Mexico by Monday morning. Expecting
conditions to remain dry and breezy until the cold front moves
through so extended Red Flag Warning until midnight tonight.
Observations behind the cold front are less breezy with higher
relative humidities. Therefore, decided to cancel the Fire Weather
Watch for Colorado Fire Zone 200 in NW Colorado due to higher RH
expected on Monday. The Fire Weather Watch for Colorado Fire Zone
207 for Monday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning due to the
proximity of the cold front and fire weather conditions likely to
be met.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ200-202-203-
205-207-290-292.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ207.
UT...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ486-487-490-
491.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/Joe
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
806 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No changes needed to previous fcst.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Southwesterly flow this afternoon is producing gusty winds in the
mountains this afternoon, with vigorous fire growth evident on
both the Beaver Creek and Cold Springs fires. Hot temperatures and
low humidities are doing nothing to help the firefighting cause.
A dry cold front and weak upper trough are forecast to move over
the northern half of the state tonight, bringing a little relief
from the heat on Monday. However, high temperatures across the
plains may still approach 90 degrees at many locations. moderate westerly
flow aloft will continue through the day tomorrow, producing more
gusty winds in the mountain and foothill areas. This will
adversely affect fire weather behavior through the afternoon
hours. The slightly cooler airmass is also going to contain a bit
more stability, so no shower activity is expected. Pops have been
removed from the forecast after the small chance of a couple
showers on the far east plains this evening. Concerning the
weather set up on the plains this evening, a dry line will be
present in eastern Washington, Sedgwick and Phillips Counties
which may provide enough of a boundary for one or two
thunderstorms to develop. These may produce some hail and heavy
rain before moving into northwest Kansas and Nebraska.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Models have zonal flow aloft at 50 to 70 knots for the CWA Monday
night into Tuesday night. The flow decreases a bit overnight
Tuesday through Wednesday night and directions are west-
northwesterly. There is weak downward synoptic scale energy
progged on the QG Omega fields Monday night and Tuesday. There is
weak upward motion into Wednesday morning, then more downward into
Wednesday night. The boundary layer winds are north-northwesterly
Monday night. The same goes for Tuesday afternoon. Normal drainage
patterns are likely overnight. Normal diurnal wind patterns are
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moisture remains limited
for the CWA through the five periods. The precipitable water
values are in the 0.20 to 0.70 inch range Monday night through
Wednesday night. The NAM does have high values over the eastern
border Wednesday late day. There is not much CAPE for the five
periods, with the exception being the NAM on Wednesday afternoon.
The CAPE is over 2000 J/kg near the eastern border. The QPF fields
have a tad of measurable rainfall in just a few place over the
eastern plains during the later day periods. Will go with little
to no pops through the five periods. For temperatures, Tuesday`s
highs are 0-1 C warmer than Monday`s. Wednesday`s highs are 0-1 C
warmer than Tuesday. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday,
models keep the flat upper ridge over us with zonal flow aloft all
four days. There will be a bit more moisture then currently, but
not a lot. Will go with minimal pops and near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 758 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Winds have become more wnw but should become more sw by 06z. cool
fnt should reach dia around 12z with north winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 758 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Will let Warnings expire at 02z as winds have decreased in most
areas. Watches will remain in place for Monday. Humidity levels
will be slightly higher however winds will still be gusty in the
aftn.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
COZ211>218.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
806 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Quick update for expiration of Red Flag Warning for this evening.
Red Flag Warning for portions of the area remains in effect for
tomorrow. Moore
UPDATE Issued at 603 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Updated grids to include areas of smoke for wx and sky grids. Also
decreased pops across the eastern plains, but kept isolated pops
for the far east along the CO and KS border. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Not many short-term meteorological adjustments required as
main near/short term challenges continue to be the fire weather
threat, temperatures and the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorm(potentially strong to severe at times...primarily
over far eastern sections).
Forecast district again experiencing above seasonal mid July
afternoon temperatures as noted by recent 100+F temperature readings
at La Junta...Lamar...Pueblo and Springfield with an impressive 106F
reading at La Junta.
In addition, gusty winds noted over many locations and when combined
with the existing dry conditions and well above seasonal
temperatures...will allow Red Flag Warnings over many locations into
this evening and then again by Monday afternoon and evening.
Also, as was the case 24 hours ago...variable cloudiness in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity was noted
well to the north and south of the CWA at 3 PM MDT.
Latest PV analysis...real/near time data...computer simulations and
forecast models soundings continue to support a basically dry
southwesterly upper flow pattern over the forecast district into
Monday...with enough atmospheric moisture combining with the daily
orographic heating cycle and subtle upper disturbances to allow for
the potential of isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms over primarily far eastern sections into this
evening.
Even though the explosive potential for thunderstorms over the far
southeastern Colorado plains is not as impressive as late yesterday
afternoon and evening...the 3 PM MDT localized most-unstable
capes...LI`s and effective bulk shear values are still challenging
4000 J/KG...-6C and 30 knots respectively over far southeastern
Colorado. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.
Finally, above seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures are
expected again over the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...Hot and Mostly Dry then Increasing Storm Chances Later in the
Week...
Latest runs keep southern Colorado generally hot and dry Tuesday and
Wednesday with possibly a spotty storm or two around the area but
most locations remaining dry.
As early as Wednesday evening but more likely Thursday and Friday,
looks like the pattern will moisten up again over the eastern
mountains and plains as a couple disturbances work through the ridge
over Colorado and send strong boundaries back up against the
mountains. This scenario would force moist, upslope winds into the
eastern mountain ranges, triggering afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Moisture looks sufficient for strong to possibly
severe storms with the potential for all of the usual storm threats
including heavy rain, hail, strong winds and lightning. Thursday
and Friday could be pretty active days for the eastern slopes and
plains based on the last couple of model runs. Western areas look
to miss out on most of the action at this time. They appear to be a
little too far west to be impacted by the low level surge of
moisture across the plains.
The weekend looks warmer and drier again with some diurnal activity
continuing but much less so than on Thursday or Friday. After a
brief drop to near average temperatures Thursday and Friday,
temperatures will likely surge above average again Saturday and
Sunday.
The potential for critical fire weather conditions will continue to
be a concern during this period of hot weather. We`ve already seen
a couple of fires start in Colorado. More starts will be possible
in the days ahead. How quickly they grow and spread will be
dependent on a number of factors including fuel moistures, winds,
humidities and ventilation rates. Red Flag Warnings are already in
effect for portions of the area today and tomorrow. Additional
highlights may be needed as we move through the week. Please be
cautious with activities that could start fires during this hot
and dry period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites into
Monday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-224-225-
229-230-233.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
605 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Updated grids to include areas of smoke for wx and sky grids. Also
decreased pops across the eastern plains, but kept isolated pops
for the far east along the CO and KS border. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Not many short-term meteorological adjustments required as
main near/short term challenges continue to be the fire weather
threat, temperatures and the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorm(potentially strong to severe at times...primarily
over far eastern sections).
Forecast district again experiencing above seasonal mid July
afternoon temperatures as noted by recent 100+F temperature readings
at La Junta...Lamar...Pueblo and Springfield with an impressive 106F
reading at La Junta.
In addition, gusty winds noted over many locations and when combined
with the existing dry conditions and well above seasonal
temperatures...will allow Red Flag Warnings over many locations into
this evening and then again by Monday afternoon and evening.
Also, as was the case 24 hours ago...variable cloudiness in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity was noted
well to the north and south of the CWA at 3 PM MDT.
Latest PV analysis...real/near time data...computer simulations and
forecast models soundings continue to support a basically dry
southwesterly upper flow pattern over the forecast district into
Monday...with enough atmospheric moisture combining with the daily
orographic heating cycle and subtle upper disturbances to allow for
the potential of isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms over primarily far eastern sections into this
evening.
Even though the explosive potential for thunderstorms over the far
southeastern Colorado plains is not as impressive as late yesterday
afternoon and evening...the 3 PM MDT localized most-unstable
capes...LI`s and effective bulk shear values are still challenging
4000 J/KG...-6C and 30 knots respectively over far southeastern
Colorado. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.
Finally, above seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures are
expected again over the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...Hot and Mostly Dry then Increasing Storm Chances Later in the
Week...
Latest runs keep southern Colorado generally hot and dry Tuesday and
Wednesday with possibly a spotty storm or two around the area but
most locations remaining dry.
As early as Wednesday evening but more likely Thursday and Friday,
looks like the pattern will moisten up again over the eastern
mountains and plains as a couple disturbances work through the ridge
over Colorado and send strong boundaries back up against the
mountains. This scenario would force moist, upslope winds into the
eastern mountain ranges, triggering afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Moisture looks sufficient for strong to possibly
severe storms with the potential for all of the usual storm threats
including heavy rain, hail, strong winds and lightning. Thursday
and Friday could be pretty active days for the eastern slopes and
plains based on the last couple of model runs. Western areas look
to miss out on most of the action at this time. They appear to be a
little too far west to be impacted by the low level surge of
moisture across the plains.
The weekend looks warmer and drier again with some diurnal activity
continuing but much less so than on Thursday or Friday. After a
brief drop to near average temperatures Thursday and Friday,
temperatures will likely surge above average again Saturday and
Sunday.
The potential for critical fire weather conditions will continue to
be a concern during this period of hot weather. We`ve already seen
a couple of fires start in Colorado. More starts will be possible
in the days ahead. How quickly they grow and spread will be
dependent on a number of factors including fuel moistures, winds,
humidities and ventilation rates. Red Flag Warnings are already in
effect for portions of the area today and tomorrow. Additional
highlights may be needed as we move through the week. Please be
cautious with activities that could start fires during this hot
and dry period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites into
Monday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>230.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-224-225-
229-230-233.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
431 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 429 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Added UTZ027 to the wind advisory in effect until 8 pm this
evening as wind gusts are already exceeding criteria at Bryson
Canyon with gusts in the low 50s. Canyonlands Airport has had
gusts to 43 mph, just below criteria but winds should increase as
the front gets closer this evening before sunset. All other
highlites remain on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An unseasonably strong Low Pressure system was working through
the Pacific NW today, then through the northern Rockies tonight.
The associated jet and moisture remain north of this forecast
area. Its dry cold front will work through NE Utah before sunset,
to near the I-70 corridor around midnight and into NW New Mexico
by Monday morning. Models are consistent with some Monday cooling
across region, around 15 degrees north, 10 degrees central, 5
degrees south.
Breezy conditions continue on Monday especially north near the
strongest pressure gradient, and south in the vicinity of the cold
front. Due to the dry conditions this keeps fire weather concerns
in the forecast. The slackening of the gradient Monday night will
allow for the coolest morning of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
A fast west-to-east flow dominates at least through Thursday with
westerlies streaming along the northern tier of states and a
subtropical ridge elongated along the southern tier. Friday the
pattern begins to amplify with troughing along the West Coast that
slips the subtropical High eastward. This opens the door to
monsoonal moisture intrusion from the south into the weekend.
There is still low confidence on the important details of this
moisture surge.
Near normal temperatures on Tuesday soar to five or more degrees
above normal for Thursday-Friday, then drop to near normal again
over the weekend with clouds and showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions dominate. However gusty winds remain a concern.
Strong pre-frontal southwest winds will continue until around
03z/sunset. The dry cold front will work from NW to SE through the
forecast area tonight. Frontal Passage will be around 03z at KVEL,
07z for KCNY KGJT, 10z for KMTJ KEGE KASE, 12z-14z for KTEX-KDRO.
Expect light to moderate turbulence tonight through Monday as
strong mixing winds continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until 9 PM as a cold front
works into NE Utah. The front sags through the region tonight,
into NW New Mexico by Monday morning. Though Monday temperatures
will not be as hot, dry and gusty winds may still bring critical
fire weather conditions to NW and SW Colorado, specifically
Colorado Fire zones 200 and the southern portion of zone 207. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these zones.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-207-
290-292.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ200-207.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-
491.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024-027.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe
FIRE WEATHER...Joe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
339 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Southwesterly flow this afternoon is producing gusty winds in the
mountains this afternoon, with vigorous fire growth evident on
both the Beaver Creek and Cold Springs fires. Hot temperatures and
low humidities are doing nothing to help the firefighting cause.
A dry cold front and weak upper trough are forecast to move over
the northern half of the state tonight, bringing a little relief
from the heat on Monday. However, high temperatures across the
plains may still approach 90 degrees at many locations. moderate westerly
flow aloft will continue through the day tomorrow, producing more
gusty winds in the mountain and foothill areas. This will
adversely affect fire weather behavior through the afternoon
hours. The slightly cooler airmass is also going to contain a bit
more stability, so no shower activity is expected. Pops have been
removed from the forecast after the small chance of a couple
showers on the far east plains this evening. Concerning the
weather set up on the plains this evening, a dry line will be
present in eastern Washington, Sedgwick and Phillips Counties
which may provide enough of a boundary for one or two
thunderstorms to develop. These may produce some hail and heavy
rain before moving into northwest Kansas and Nebraska.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Models have zonal flow aloft at 50 to 70 knots for the CWA Monday
night into Tuesday night. The flow decreases a bit overnight
Tuesday through Wednesday night and directions are west-
northwesterly. There is weak downward synoptic scale energy
progged on the QG Omega fields Monday night and Tuesday. There is
weak upward motion into Wednesday morning, then more downward into
Wednesday night. The boundary layer winds are north-northwesterly
Monday night. The same goes for Tuesday afternoon. Normal drainage
patterns are likely overnight. Normal diurnal wind patterns are
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moisture remains limited
for the CWA through the five periods. The precipitable water
values are in the 0.20 to 0.70 inch range Monday night through
Wednesday night. The NAM does have high values over the eastern
border Wednesday late day. There is not much CAPE for the five
periods, with the exception being the NAM on Wednesday afternoon.
The CAPE is over 2000 J/kg near the eastern border. The QPF fields
have a tad of measurable rainfall in just a few place over the
eastern plains during the later day periods. Will go with little
to no pops through the five periods. For temperatures, Tuesday`s
highs are 0-1 C warmer than Monday`s. Wednesday`s highs are 0-1 C
warmer than Tuesday. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday,
models keep the flat upper ridge over us with zonal flow aloft all
four days. There will be a bit more moisture then currently, but
not a lot. Will go with minimal pops and near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No aviation impacts at the Denver area airports tonight. Ceilings
and visibilities should remain unrestricted, though KBJC will be
able to see smoke from the Cold Springs Fire through the evening
hours. Winds are expected to go southwesterly overnight. Winds
will then be more westerly Monday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Red Flag Warning will continue through this evening as warm
temperatures, low humidities and gusty winds are all still
ongoing. Cold Springs Fire is presently showing stronger fire
behavior than yesterday afternoon.
Cold front moving through the area tonight will bring cooler
temperatures and slightly higher humidities on Monday, but
westerly winds could be even stronger than the southwesterlies
that we are seeing this afternoon. Given the fire behavior we are
seeing today and only marginal improvement expected for tomorrow,
will issue a Fire Weather Watch for all of the mountains and
foothills for Monday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ211-213>217-
241.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ211>218.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Not many short-term meteorological adjustments required as
main near/short term challenges continue to be the fire weather
threat, temperatures and the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorm(potentially strong to severe at times...primarily
over far eastern sections).
Forecast district again experiencing above seasonal mid July
afternoon temperatures as noted by recent 100+F temperature readings
at La Junta...Lamar...Pueblo and Springfield with an impressive 106F
reading at La Junta.
In addition, gusty winds noted over many locations and when combined
with the existing dry conditions and well above seasonal
temperatures...will allow Red Flag Warnings over many locations into
this evening and then again by Monday afternoon and evening.
Also, as was the case 24 hours ago...variable cloudiness in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity was noted
well to the north and south of the CWA at 3 PM MDT.
Latest PV analysis...real/near time data...computer simulations and
forecast models soundings continue to support a basically dry
southwesterly upper flow pattern over the forecast district into
Monday...with enough atmospheric moisture combining with the daily
orographic heating cycle and subtle upper disturbances to allow for
the potential of isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms over primarily far eastern sections into this
evening.
Even though the explosive potential for thunderstorms over the far
southeastern Colorado plains is not as impressive as late yesterday
afternoon and evening...the 3 PM MDT localized most-unstable
capes...LI`s and effective bulk shear values are still challenging
4000 J/KG...-6C and 30 knots respectively over far southeastern
Colorado. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.
Finally, above seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures are
expected again over the forecast district during the next 24 hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...Hot and Mostly Dry then Increasing Storm Chances Later in the
Week...
Latest runs keep southern Colorado generally hot and dry Tuesday and
Wednesday with possibly a spotty storm or two around the area but
most locations remaining dry.
As early as Wednesday evening but more likely Thursday and Friday,
looks like the pattern will moisten up again over the eastern
mountains and plains as a couple disturbances work through the ridge
over Colorado and send strong boundaries back up against the
mountains. This scenario would force moist, upslope winds into the
eastern mountain ranges, triggering afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Moisture looks sufficient for strong to possibly
severe storms with the potential for all of the usual storm threats
including heavy rain, hail, strong winds and lightning. Thursday
and Friday could be pretty active days for the eastern slopes and
plains based on the last couple of model runs. Western areas look
to miss out on most of the action at this time. They appear to be a
little too far west to be impacted by the low level surge of
moisture across the plains.
The weekend looks warmer and drier again with some diurnal activity
continuing but much less so than on Thursday or Friday. After a
brief drop to near average temperatures Thursday and Friday,
temperatures will likely surge above average again Saturday and
Sunday.
The potential for critical fire weather conditions will continue to
be a concern during this period of hot weather. We`ve already seen
a couple of fires start in Colorado. More starts will be possible
in the days ahead. How quickly they grow and spread will be
dependent on a number of factors including fuel moistures, winds,
humidities and ventilation rates. Red Flag Warnings are already in
effect for portions of the area today and tomorrow. Additional
highlights may be needed as we move through the week. Please be
cautious with activities that could start fires during this hot
and dry period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites into
Monday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>230.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-224-225-
229-230-233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
206 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An unseasonably strong Low Pressure system was working through
the Pacific NW today, then through the northern Rockies tonight.
The associated jet and moisture remain north of this forecast
area. Its dry cold front will work through NE Utah before sunset,
to near the I-70 corridor around midnight and into NW New Mexico
by Monday morning. Models are consistent with some Monday cooling
across region, around 15 degrees north, 10 degrees central, 5
degrees south.
Breezy conditions continue on Monday especially north near the
strongest pressure gradient, and south in the vicinity of the cold
front. Due to the dry conditions this keeps fire weather concerns
in the forecast. The slackening of the gradient Monday night will
allow for the coolest morning of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
A fast west-to-east flow dominates at least through Thursday with
westerlies streaming along the northern tier of states and a
subtropical ridge elongated along the southern tier. Friday the
pattern begins to amplify with troughing along the West Coast that
slips the subtropical High eastward. This opens the door to
monsoonal moisture intrusion from the south into the weekend.
There is still low confidence on the important details of this
moisture surge.
Near normal temperatures on Tuesday soar to five or more degrees
above normal for Thursday-Friday, then drop to near normal again
over the weekend with clouds and showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions dominate. However gusty winds remain a concern.
Strong pre-frontal southwest winds will continue until around
03z/sunset. The dry cold front will work from NW to SE through the
forecast area tonight. Frontal Passage will be around 03z at KVEL,
07z for KCNY KGJT, 10z for KMTJ KEGE KASE, 12z-14z for KTEX-KDRO.
Expect light to moderate turbulence tonight through Monday as
strong mixing winds continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until 9 PM as a cold front
works into NE Utah. The front sags through the region tonight,
into NW New Mexico by Monday morning. Though Monday temperatures
will not be as hot, dry and gusty winds may still bring critical
fire weather conditions to NW and SW Colorado, specifically
Colorado Fire zones 200 and the southern portion of zone 207. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these zones.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-207-
290-292.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002.
Fire Weather Watch Monday noon to 8 PM MDT for COZ200-207.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-
491.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe
FIRE WEATHER...Joe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1248 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Converted Monday`s Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for
Fire Weather Zones 222/224/225/229/230 and 233. Also refreshed
front-end grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...High fire danger across the San Luis Valley, Eastern
Mountains, and I-25 corridor today... ...A couple strong to severe
storms possible near the Kansas border...
It will be another hot day today, perhaps record-breaking for a
few locations, as temps exceed 100 degrees over the Plains this
afternoon.
Main concern today will be the high fire danger, as southwest winds
aloft increase ahead of a low pressure system centered over The
Inter-Mountain region. H7 flow will increase to around 30-40 kts
this afternoon, which will lead to gusty and windy conditions over
much of the area, but especially the E Mts and higher terrain.
Winds over the Plains could also gust in the 20-30 kt range. Very
dry air moving in from the Desert SW into W CO will lead to very low
RH across the region as well. Mountain areas could potentially see
lower RH than current forecast indicates. Fuel status is
questionable over much of the area, particularly across portions of
the I-25 corridor, which has seen some pockets of heavy rain
recently. However, given the quality of fuels, and expected
meteorological conditions, fire danger will be very high. Given the
pattern, and coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a
red flag warning for these zones for the afternoon through early
evening. Extra care is advised today to avoid fire starts.
Other concern will be the potential for strong to severe plains near
the Kansas border this afternoon and early evening. The dry line
should persist somewhere over the border area, and Baca and Prowers
Counties will be most at risk for a few storms. Most of the high res
guidance is suggesting a cluster of storms developing over E Las
Animas County into Baca County, spreading EWD into KS this evening
Given the presence of 30-40 Kts bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE, an isolated supercell or svr multicell cluster cannot be ruled
out. Like yesterday, the main threat will be large hail to golf ball
size. This activity should move out of our area by sunset, leaving
behind clearing skies and mild overnight conditions with temps
staying near 70 degrees over the eastern zones. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
It will be mainly hot and dry during the beginning of this period
with a better chance of some precip late in the week.
Monday...
Dry southwest flow will prevail over the region during this day.
Fire weather issues due to low RH values and winds will be a concern
mainly over the San Luis valley...and the Spanish Peaks/Raton mesa
regions. For this reason have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these
regions. Max temps will reach the century mark along the US-50
corridor along the plains east of pueblo...with mostly u90s
elsewhere plains. There will be a slight chance of some late
afternoon thunder along the CO/KS border...especially in Baca
county.
A weak boundary will come down the plains Monday night.
Tuesday...
Temps should be a bit cooler on this day as compared to
Monday...with highs on getting into the l/m90s plains. It appears it
will be too dry for any precip although cant rule out an isold storm
on the plains and e slopes of the mtns. Probability of this
occurring appears too low to explicitly mention in zones at this
time.
Wednesday...
flow aloft weakens as gradient slackens aloft. However...dry
weather is expected to continue over the region with only a slight
chance of a storm or two over the far eastern plains during the late
afternoon. Expect highs a degree or two higher than Tuesdays max
temps.
Thursday and Friday...
We will see a somewhat better chance of precip over the plains and
adjacent mtns as better lower lvl moisture is fcst to move into the
region. Max temps will cool slightly both days...but highs will
still be in the 90s on the plains both days. Some of the storms will
have the potential to be on the strong side as sufficient shear and
CAPE should be in place. Interior mtns/valleys should remain dry.
Next Weekend...
Drier conditions with temps approaching the century mark over the
lower elevations should return to the fcst region as flow from the
west-southwest increases over Colorado. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites
into Monday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>230.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-224-225-
229-230-233.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...High fire danger across the San Luis Valley, Eastern
Mountains, and I-25 corridor today... ...A couple strong to severe
storms possible near the Kansas border...
It will be another hot day today, perhaps record-breaking for a
few locations, as temps exceed 100 degrees over the Plains this
afternoon.
Main concern today will be the high fire danger, as southwest winds
aloft increase ahead of a low pressure system centered over The
Inter-Mountain region. H7 flow will increase to around 30-40 kts
this afternoon, which will lead to gusty and windy conditions over
much of the area, but especially the E Mts and higher terrain.
Winds over the Plains could also gust in the 20-30 kt range. Very
dry air moving in from the Desert SW into W CO will lead to very low
RH across the region as well. Mountain areas could potentially see
lower RH than current forecast indicates. Fuel status is
questionable over much of the area, particularly across portions of
the I-25 corridor, which has seen some pockets of heavy rain
recently. However, given the quality of fuels, and expected
meteorological conditions, fire danger will be very high. Given the
pattern, and coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a
red flag warning for these zones for the afternoon through early
evening. Extra care is advised today to avoid fire starts.
Other concern will be the potential for strong to severe plains near
the Kansas border this afternoon and early evening. The dry line
should persist somewhere over the border area, and Baca and Prowers
Counties will be most at risk for a few storms. Most of the high res
guidance is suggesting a cluster of storms developing over E Las
Animas County into Baca County, spreading EWD into KS this evening
Given the presence of 30-40 Kts bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE, an isolated supercell or svr multicell cluster cannot be ruled
out. Like yesterday, the main threat will be large hail to golf ball
size. This activity should move out of our area by sunset, leaving
behind clearing skies and mild overnight conditions with temps
staying near 70 degrees over the eastern zones. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
It will be mainly hot and dry during the beginning of this period
with a better chance of some precip late in the week.
Monday...
Dry southwest flow will prevail over the region during this day.
Fire weather issues due to low RH values and winds will be a concern
mainly over the San Luis valley...and the Spanish Peaks/Raton mesa
regions. For this reason have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these
regions. Max temps will reach the century mark along the US-50
corridor along the plains east of pueblo...with mostly u90s
elsewhere plains. There will be a slight chance of some late
afternoon thunder along the CO/KS border...especially in Baca
county.
A weak boundary will come down the plains Monday night.
Tuesday...
Temps should be a bit cooler on this day as compared to
Monday...with highs on getting into the l/m90s plains. It appears it
will be too dry for any precip although cant rule out an isold storm
on the plains and e slopes of the mtns. Probability of this
occurring appears too low to explicitly mention in zones at this
time.
Wednesday...
flow aloft weakens as gradient slackens aloft. However...dry
weather is expected to continue over the region with only a slight
chance of a storm or two over the far eastern plains during the late
afternoon. Expect highs a degree or two higher than Tuesdays max
temps.
Thursday and Friday...
We will see a somewhat better chance of precip over the plains and
adjacent mtns as better lower lvl moisture is fcst to move into the
region. Max temps will cool slightly both days...but highs will
still be in the 90s on the plains both days. Some of the storms will
have the potential to be on the strong side as sufficient shear and
CAPE should be in place. Interior mtns/valleys should remain dry.
Next Weekend...
Drier conditions with temps approaching the century mark over the
lower elevations should return to the fcst region as flow from the
west-southwest increases over Colorado. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites
into Monday
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-225-229-230-233.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No changes to the forecast necessary at this time. Temperatures at
KDEN are running about 3 degrees warmer than yesterday, so we
might make it to the century mark in the next few hours. Wind
speeds out of the southwest are starting to increase in the
mountains at this hour. This trend is expected to continue through
the afternoon. Dangerous fire behavior is expected through the
afternoon hours. Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An upper level low will move across the Pacific Northwest today
and into the Northern Rockies tonight. Meanwhile the ridge over
the region will shift eastward today. This will result in an
increasing southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a low will be
near the Black Hills with a dry line extending south across far
eastern Colorado. East of the dry line, there will be a slight
chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening before
the drier air pushes through. Can`t totally rule out a severe
storm, though chances are low.
Main concern today will be the fire danger. The increasing
southwest flow will bring windy conditions to north central
Colorado with breezy conditions expected along the Front Range.
The southwesterly downslope winds will help warm and dry the air.
Expect highs to be a couple degrees warmer today due to the
stronger downslope winds. This will put most locations across
northeast Colorado in the upper 90s to lower 100s. The record high
for Denver today is 99 and could be tied or broken.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...Dry and warm conditions continue for the extended with
emphasis on increased fire danger...
For Monday fire danger concerns will continue to be heightened
due to increased winds...high temperatures and low RH values over
the high terrain. The upper level closed low over Montana with a
trough that will move over the Northern portions of the state
bringing increased winds to the region for Monday afternoon and
evening. The frontal passage associated with this upper level
feature will help to drop temperatures a few degrees with highs
in the upper 80s but with little moisture attached to it thunder
is not expected. It will however bring gusty winds to the higher
terrain and foothills with gusts in the 30-40 range by Monday
afternoon and evening. RH values at this time continue to be
borderline for extreme fire danger but poor RH recovery combined
with increased fire danger through the weekend could result in
another fire weather hilite for Monday afternoon. Will hold off
for now to see how models progress.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry and warm under zonal flow
aloft with highs in the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. By
Wednesday evening into Thursday a cold front associated with a
weak upper level shortwave will bring slightly cooler temperatures
and increased moisture to the plains. Models have diverged on
coverage for potential thunder with the EC being the more bullish
of the solutions. CAPE values are strong over the southern
counties with decent mid level shear values...enough for a couple
big storms that could produce rain and larger hail. Will maintain
a slight chance for now for Thursday afternoon and evening with
highs in the upper 80s.
Friday and Saturday...the upper ridge will build back in bringing
temperatures back into the mid 90s. GFS hinting at a possible
return of the monsoon for the start of the following week but will
have to see how models unfold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No aviation impacts are expected other than increasing southwest
winds through the afternoon. Smoke from the Cold Springs Fire
should become visible at KBJC during the afternoon, but
significant restrictions to visibility are not expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring windy conditions to
the mountains and mountain valleys through this afternoon where
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. The Red Flag Warning for the
mountain valleys and Front Range foothills will remain in effect
through this evening. Relative humidity values are expected to fall
below 15 percent. Along the Front Range, winds speeds are a little
more uncertain, but wind prone areas should see gusts to 30 to 40
mph with 20 to 30 mph elsewhere.
Monday...A cold front will move through overnight...bringing
cooler temperatures. However...winds will switch more westerly and
continue to bring increased speeds to the higher terrain.
Influence from an upper level jet will allow for gusts from 30-40
MPH Monday afternoon and into the evening. This combined with
little moisture will add to already heightened fire danger. RH
values at this time are borderline for red flag criteria but
cannot rule out conditions being met as mixing occurs through the
day.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ211-213>217-
241.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Dankers/Meier/Bowen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
The well advertised area of low pressure and associated cold front that
will affect our weather today can be clearly seen on IR satellite
just barely off the Washington and Oregon coast this morning.
Models remain in excellent agreement that as the low continues to
approach our area, the gradient will tighten considerably bringing
some gusty winds to the area. Northern areas will see the
strongest winds as they`ll be closest to the low pressure with
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts possibly reaching as
high as 50 mph. For this reason, a wind advisory remains in effect
for our northern Colorado zones and one zone in Utah. A few other
areas may also see some winds approaching wind advisory levels but
they remain fairly borderline so day shift will need to keep an
eye on how this all plays out. Winds should start picking up
between 10AM through noon with the strongest winds expected
around 3PM onwards.
Along with the high winds, dry conditions also remain over the
area. Add to the equation dry fuels and explosive fire growth is
possible. Thus, a red flag warning remains in effect for much of eastern
Utah and western Colorado. Any new fire starts will spread
incredibly quickly with these winds so if hiking or playing
outside today, please be aware of any possible embers from
campfires or sparks from machinery and the effect they might have.
Like yesterday, a few clouds will form this afternoon as
temperatures remain a few degrees above normal. The cold front
looks to move through in the evening hours but with such little
moisture do not expect any precipitation.
For Monday, a wind shift to the northwest will usher in
noticeably cooler air as high temperatures drop anywhere from 10
to 15 degrees from those seen on Sunday. Areas north of I-70 will
see another day of some breezy conditions but nothing like those
seen on Sunday. Red flag conditions may be met again on Monday but
at this time, those conditions only look to occur for a few hours
so will hold off on any new fire weather highlights.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Little change day to day in the long term period. Atmospheric
moisture remains low throughout so not expecting any precipitation
except for the occasional afternoon shower or thunderstorm over
mountaintops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Strong southwest winds are beginning to gust along ridge-tops and
should be mixing into the valleys by the new 18z forecast. Winds
gusts of 30 to 45 will be common across the forecast terminals
through sunset and possibly later as a cold front moves through.
No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage so VFR
conditions are expected to hold over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Inversions will be weak tonight as the southwest winds aloft will
strengthen. Red Flag Warnings return with a vengeance on Sunday
as the cold front approaches. Hot afternoon temperatures will
produce very low humidity. Sunday afternoon wind gusts will range
from 35 to 45 mph in the valleys, 45 to 55 mph in the high
terrain. Monday will be much less hot and less windy.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-207-
290-292.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-
491.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
The well advertised area of low pressure and associated cold front that
will affect our weather today can be clearly seen on IR satellite
just barely off the Washington and Oregon coast this morning.
Models remain in excellent agreement that as the low continues to
approach our area, the gradient will tighten considerably bringing
some gusty winds to the area. Northern areas will see the
strongest winds as they`ll be closest to the low pressure with
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts possibly reaching as
high as 50 mph. For this reason, a wind advisory remains in effect
for our northern Colorado zones and one zone in Utah. A few other
areas may also see some winds approaching wind advisory levels but
they remain fairly borderline so day shift will need to keep an
eye on how this all plays out. Winds should start picking up
between 10AM through noon with the strongest winds expected
around 3PM onwards.
Along with the high winds, dry conditions also remain over the
area. Add to the equation dry fuels and explosive fire growth is
possible. Thus, a red flag warning remains in effect for much of eastern
Utah and western Colorado. Any new fire starts will spread
incredibly quickly with these winds so if hiking or playing
outside today, please be aware of any possible embers from
campfires or sparks from machinery and the effect they might have.
Like yesterday, a few clouds will form this afternoon as
temperatures remain a few degrees above normal. The cold front
looks to move through in the evening hours but with such little
moisture do not expect any precipitation.
For Monday, a wind shift to the northwest will usher in
noticeably cooler air as high temperatures drop anywhere from 10
to 15 degrees from those seen on Sunday. Areas north of I-70 will
see another day of some breezy conditions but nothing like those
seen on Sunday. Red flag conditions may be met again on Monday but
at this time, those conditions only look to occur for a few hours
so will hold off on any new fire weather highlights.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Little change day to day in the long term period. Atmospheric
moisture remains low throughout so not expecting any precipitation
except for the occasional afternoon shower or thunderstorm over
mountaintops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Strong southwest winds are beginning to gust along ridge-tops and
should be mixing into the valleys by the new 18z forecast. Winds
gusts of 30 to 45 will be common across the forecast terminals
through sunset and possibly later as a cold front moves through.
No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage so VFR
conditions are expected to hold over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Inversions will be weak tonight as the southwest winds aloft will
strengthen. Red Flag Warnings return with a vengeance on Sunday
as the cold front approaches. Hot afternoon temperatures will
produce very low humidity. Sunday afternoon wind gusts will range
from 35 to 45 mph in the valleys, 45 to 55 mph in the high
terrain. Monday will be much less hot and less windy.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-207-
290-292.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-
491.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No changes to the forecast necessary at this time. Temperatures at
KDEN are running about 3 degrees warmer than yesterday, so we
might make it to the century mark in the next few hours. Wind
speeds out of the southwest are starting to increase in the
mountains at this hour. This trend is expected to continue through
the afternoon. Dangerous fire behavior is expected through the
afternoon hours. Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An upper level low will move across the Pacific Northwest today
and into the Northern Rockies tonight. Meanwhile the ridge over
the region will shift eastward today. This will result in an
increasing southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a low will be
near the Black Hills with a dry line extending south across far
eastern Colorado. East of the dry line, there will be a slight
chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening before
the drier air pushes through. Can`t totally rule out a severe
storm, though chances are low.
Main concern today will be the fire danger. The increasing
southwest flow will bring windy conditions to north central
Colorado with breezy conditions expected along the Front Range.
The southwesterly downslope winds will help warm and dry the air.
Expect highs to be a couple degrees warmer today due to the
stronger downslope winds. This will put most locations across
northeast Colorado in the upper 90s to lower 100s. The record high
for Denver today is 99 and could be tied or broken.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...Dry and warm conditions continue for the extended with
emphasis on increased fire danger...
For Monday fire danger concerns will continue to be heightened
due to increased winds...high temperatures and low RH values over
the high terrain. The upper level closed low over Montana with a
trough that will move over the Northern portions of the state
bringing increased winds to the region for Monday afternoon and
evening. The frontal passage associated with this upper level
feature will help to drop temperatures a few degrees with highs
in the upper 80s but with little moisture attached to it thunder
is not expected. It will however bring gusty winds to the higher
terrain and foothills with gusts in the 30-40 range by Monday
afternoon and evening. RH values at this time continue to be
borderline for extreme fire danger but poor RH recovery combined
with increased fire danger through the weekend could result in
another fire weather hilite for Monday afternoon. Will hold off
for now to see how models progress.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry and warm under zonal flow
aloft with highs in the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. By
Wednesday evening into Thursday a cold front associated with a
weak upper level shortwave will bring slightly cooler temperatures
and increased moisture to the plains. Models have diverged on
coverage for potential thunder with the EC being the more bullish
of the solutions. CAPE values are strong over the southern
counties with decent mid level shear values...enough for a couple
big storms that could produce rain and larger hail. Will maintain
a slight chance for now for Thursday afternoon and evening with
highs in the upper 80s.
Friday and Saturday...the upper ridge will build back in bringing
temperatures back into the mid 90s. GFS hinting at a possible
return of the monsoon for the start of the following week but will
have to see how models unfold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No aviation impacts are expected other than increasing southwest
winds through the afternoon. Smoke from the Cold Springs Fire
should become visible at KBJC during the afternoon, but
significant restrictions to visibility are not expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring windy conditions to
the mountains and mountain valleys through this afternoon where
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. The Red Flag Warning for the
mountain valleys and Front Range foothills will remain in effect
through this evening. Relative humidity values are expected to fall
below 15 percent. Along the Front Range, winds speeds are a little
more uncertain, but wind prone areas should see gusts to 30 to 40
mph with 20 to 30 mph elsewhere.
Monday...A cold front will move through overnight...bringing
cooler temperatures. However...winds will switch more westerly and
continue to bring increased speeds to the higher terrain.
Influence from an upper level jet will allow for gusts from 30-40
MPH Monday afternoon and into the evening. This combined with
little moisture will add to already heightened fire danger. RH
values at this time are borderline for red flag criteria but
cannot rule out conditions being met as mixing occurs through the
day.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ211-213>217-
241.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Dankers/Meier/Bowen
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...High fire danger across the San Luis Valley, Eastern
Mountains, and I-25 corridor today... ...A couple strong to severe
storms possible near the Kansas border...
It will be another hot day today, perhaps record-breaking for a
few locations, as temps exceed 100 degrees over the Plains this
afternoon.
Main concern today will be the high fire danger, as southwest winds
aloft increase ahead of a low pressure system centered over The
Inter-Mountain region. H7 flow will increase to around 30-40 kts
this afternoon, which will lead to gusty and windy conditions over
much of the area, but especially the E Mts and higher terrain.
Winds over the Plains could also gust in the 20-30 kt range. Very
dry air moving in from the Desert SW into W CO will lead to very low
RH across the region as well. Mountain areas could potentially see
lower RH than current forecast indicates. Fuel status is
questionable over much of the area, particularly across portions of
the I-25 corridor, which has seen some pockets of heavy rain
recently. However, given the quality of fuels, and expected
meteorological conditions, fire danger will be very high. Given the
pattern, and coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a
red flag warning for these zones for the afternoon through early
evening. Extra care is advised today to avoid fire starts.
Other concern will be the potential for strong to severe plains near
the Kansas border this afternoon and early evening. The dry line
should persist somewhere over the border area, and Baca and Prowers
Counties will be most at risk for a few storms. Most of the high res
guidance is suggesting a cluster of storms developing over E Las
Animas County into Baca County, spreading EWD into KS this evening
Given the presence of 30-40 Kts bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE, an isolated supercell or svr multicell cluster cannot be ruled
out. Like yesterday, the main threat will be large hail to golf ball
size. This activity should move out of our area by sunset, leaving
behind clearing skies and mild overnight conditions with temps
staying near 70 degrees over the eastern zones. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
It will be mainly hot and dry during the beginning of this period
with a better chance of some precip late in the week.
Monday...
Dry southwest flow will prevail over the region during this day.
Fire weather issues due to low RH values and winds will be a concern
mainly over the San Luis valley...and the Spanish Peaks/Raton mesa
regions. For this reason have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these
regions. Max temps will reach the century mark along the US-50
corridor along the plains east of pueblo...with mostly u90s
elsewhere plains. There will be a slight chance of some late
afternoon thunder along the CO/KS border...especially in Baca
county.
A weak boundary will come down the plains Monday night.
Tuesday...
Temps should be a bit cooler on this day as compared to
Monday...with highs on getting into the l/m90s plains. It appears it
will be too dry for any precip although cant rule out an isold storm
on the plains and e slopes of the mtns. Probability of this
occurring appears too low to explicitly mention in zones at this
time.
Wednesday...
flow aloft weakens as gradient slackens aloft. However...dry
weather is expected to continue over the region with only a slight
chance of a storm or two over the far eastern plains during the late
afternoon. Expect highs a degree or two higher than Tuesdays max
temps.
Thursday and Friday...
We will see a somewhat better chance of precip over the plains and
adjacent mtns as better lower lvl moisture is fcst to move into the
region. Max temps will cool slightly both days...but highs will
still be in the 90s on the plains both days. Some of the storms will
have the potential to be on the strong side as sufficient shear and
CAPE should be in place. Interior mtns/valleys should remain dry.
Next Weekend...
Drier conditions with temps approaching the century mark over the
lower elevations should return to the fcst region as flow from the
west-southwest increases over Colorado. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions will persist over the next 24-30 hours for the TAF
sites. As SW winds increase aloft, will se gusty W-SW winds develop
this afternoon, with some gusts in the 20-30 kt range possible for
the TAF sites. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out for the Pikes
Peak region, but probability of it affecting KCOS is fairly low, and
storms will be high-based. Stronger to severe storms will be
possible along and east of the dryline over the CO-KS border area
this afternoon and evening. Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ221-222-224>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-225-229-230-233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...High fire danger across the San Luis Valley, Eastern
Mountains, and I-25 corridor today... ...A couple strong to severe
storms possible near the Kansas border...
It will be another hot day today, perhaps record-breaking for a
few locations, as temps exceed 100 degrees over the Plains this
afternoon.
Main concern today will be the high fire danger, as southwest winds
aloft increase ahead of a low pressure system centered over The
Inter-Mountain region. H7 flow will increase to around 30-40 kts
this afternoon, which will lead to gusty and windy conditions over
much of the area, but especially the E Mts and higher terrain.
Winds over the Plains could also gust in the 20-30 kt range. Very
dry air moving in from the Desert SW into W CO will lead to very low
RH across the region as well. Mountain areas could potentially see
lower RH than current forecast indicates. Fuel status is
questionable over much of the area, particularly across portions of
the I-25 corridor, which has seen some pockets of heavy rain
recently. However, given the quality of fuels, and expected
meteorological conditions, fire danger will be very high. Given the
pattern, and coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a
red flag warning for these zones for the afternoon through early
evening. Extra care is advised today to avoid fire starts.
Other concern will be the potential for strong to severe plains near
the Kansas border this afternoon and early evening. The dry line
should persist somewhere over the border area, and Baca and Prowers
Counties will be most at risk for a few storms. Most of the high res
guidance is suggesting a cluster of storms developing over E Las
Animas County into Baca County, spreading EWD into KS this evening
Given the presence of 30-40 Kts bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE, an isolated supercell or svr multicell cluster cannot be ruled
out. Like yesterday, the main threat will be large hail to golf ball
size. This activity should move out of our area by sunset, leaving
behind clearing skies and mild overnight conditions with temps
staying near 70 degrees over the eastern zones. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
It will be mainly hot and dry during the beginning of this period
with a better chance of some precip late in the week.
Monday...
Dry southwest flow will prevail over the region during this day.
Fire weather issues due to low RH values and winds will be a concern
mainly over the San Luis valley...and the Spanish Peaks/Raton mesa
regions. For this reason have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these
regions. Max temps will reach the century mark along the US-50
corridor along the plains east of pueblo...with mostly u90s
elsewhere plains. There will be a slight chance of some late
afternoon thunder along the CO/KS border...especially in Baca
county.
A weak boundary will come down the plains Monday night.
Tuesday...
Temps should be a bit cooler on this day as compared to
Monday...with highs on getting into the l/m90s plains. It appears it
will be too dry for any precip although cant rule out an isold storm
on the plains and e slopes of the mtns. Probability of this
occurring appears too low to explicitly mention in zones at this
time.
Wednesday...
flow aloft weakens as gradient slackens aloft. However...dry
weather is expected to continue over the region with only a slight
chance of a storm or two over the far eastern plains during the late
afternoon. Expect highs a degree or two higher than Tuesdays max
temps.
Thursday and Friday...
We will see a somewhat better chance of precip over the plains and
adjacent mtns as better lower lvl moisture is fcst to move into the
region. Max temps will cool slightly both days...but highs will
still be in the 90s on the plains both days. Some of the storms will
have the potential to be on the strong side as sufficient shear and
CAPE should be in place. Interior mtns/valleys should remain dry.
Next Weekend...
Drier conditions with temps approaching the century mark over the
lower elevations should return to the fcst region as flow from the
west-southwest increases over Colorado. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions will persist over the next 24-30 hours for the TAF
sites. As SW winds increase aloft, will se gusty W-SW winds develop
this afternoon, with some gusts in the 20-30 kt range possible for
the TAF sites. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out for the Pikes
Peak region, but probability of it affecting KCOS is fairly low, and
storms will be high-based. Stronger to severe storms will be
possible along and east of the dryline over the CO-KS border area
this afternoon and evening. Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ221-222-224>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-225-229-230-233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
333 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An upper level low will move across the Pacific Northwest today
and into the Northern Rockies tonight. Meanwhile the ridge over
the region will shift eastward today. This will result in an
increasing southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a low will be
near the Black Hills with a dry line extending south across far
eastern Colorado. East of the dry line, there will be a slight
chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening before
the drier air pushes through. Can`t totally rule out a severe
storm, though chances are low.
Main concern today will be the fire danger. The increasing
southwest flow will bring windy conditions to north central
Colorado with breezy conditions expected along the Front Range.
The southwesterly downslope winds will help warm and dry the air.
Expect highs to be a couple degrees warmer today due to the
stronger downslope winds. This will put most locations across
northeast Colorado in the upper 90s to lower 100s. The record high
for Denver today is 99 and could be tied or broken.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...Dry and warm conditions continue for the extended with
emphasis on increased fire danger...
For Monday fire danger concerns will continue to be heightened
due to increased winds...high temperatures and low RH values over
the high terrain. The upper level closed low over Montana with a
trough that will move over the Northern portions of the state
bringing increased winds to the region for Monday afternoon and
evening. The frontal passage associated with this upper level
feature will help to drop temperatures a few degrees with highs
in the upper 80s but with little moisture attached to it thunder
is not expected. It will however bring gusty winds to the higher
terrain and foothills with gusts in the 30-40 range by Monday
afternoon and evening. RH values at this time continue to be
borderline for extreme fire danger but poor RH recovery combined
with increased fire danger through the weekend could result in
another fire weather hilite for Monday afternoon. Will hold off
for now to see how models progress.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry and warm under zonal flow
aloft with highs in the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. By
Wednesday evening into Thursday a cold front associated with a
weak upper level shortwave will bring slightly cooler temperatures
and increased moisture to the plains. Models have diverged on
coverage for potential thunder with the EC being the more bullish
of the solutions. CAPE values are strong over the southern
counties with decent mid level shear values...enough for a couple
big storms that could produce rain and larger hail. Will maintain
a slight chance for now for Thursday afternoon and evening with
highs in the upper 80s.
Friday and Saturday...the upper ridge will build back in bringing
temperatures back into the mid 90s. GFS hinting at a possible
return of the monsoon for the start of the following week but will
have to see how models unfold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions will prevail. South to southwest winds are
expected to persist through Sunday night. Gusts up to 25 knots
will be possible at times.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
An increasing southwest flow aloft will bring windy conditions to
the mountains and mountain valleys where gusts to 40 mph will be
possible this afternoon and early evening. Will issue a Red Flag
Warning for the mountain valleys where the relative humidity will
fall below 15 percent. Along the Front Range, winds speeds are
little more uncertain, but wind prone areas should see gusts to 30
to 40 mph with 20 to 30 mph else where. Due to the hot
temperatures, low relative humidities, and recent fire activity
decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for the foothills and Palmer
Divide.
Monday...A cold front will move through by Friday morning bringing
cooler temperatures. However...winds will switch more westerly
and continue to bring increased speeds to the higher terrain.
Influence with an upper jet will allow for gusts from 30-40 by
Monday afternoon and into the evening. This combined with little
moisture will add to already heightened fire danger. RH values at
this time are borderline for red flag criteria but cannot rule
out conditions being met as mixing occurs through the day.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ211-213>217-241.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Meier/Bowen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
...High fired danger across the San Luis Valley, Eastern Mountains,
and I-25 corridor today...
...A couple strong to severe storms possible near the Kansas
border...
It will be another hot day today, perhaps record-breaking for a
few locations, as temps exceed 100 degrees over the Plains this
afternoon.
Main concern today will be the high fire danger, as southwest winds
aloft increase ahead of a low pressure system centered over The
Inter-Mountain region. H7 flow will increase to around 30-40 kts
this afternoon, which will lead to gusty and windy conditions over
much of the area, but especially the E Mts and higher terrain.
Winds over the Plains could also gust in the 20-30 kt range. Very
dry air moving in from the Desert SW into W CO will lead to very low
RH across the region as well. Mountain areas could potentially see
lower RH than current forecast indicates. Fuel status is
questionable over much of the area, particularly across portions of
the I-25 corridor, which has seen some pockets of heavy rain
recently. However, given the quality of fuels, and expected
meteorological conditions, fire danger will be very high. Given the
pattern, and coordination with surrounding offices, will issue a
red flag warning for these zones for the afternoon through early
evening. Extra care is advised today to avoid fire starts.
Other concern will be the potential for strong to severe plains near
the Kansas border this afternoon and early evening. The dry line
should persist somewhere over the border area, and Baca and Prowers
Counties will be most at risk for a few storms. Most of the high res
guidance is suggesting a cluster of storms developing over E Las
Animas County into Baca County, spreading EWD into KS this evening
Given the presence of 30-40 Kts bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE, an isolated supercell or svr multicell cluster cannot be ruled
out. Like yesterday, the main threat will be large hail to golf ball
size. This activity should move out of our area by sunset, leaving
behind clearing skies and mild overnight conditions with temps
staying near 70 degrees over the eastern zones. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
It will be mainly hot and dry during the beginning of this period
with a better chance of some precip late in the week.
Monday...
Dry southwest flow will prevail over the region during this day.
Fire weather issues due to low RH values and winds will be a concern
mainly over the San Luis valley...and the Spanish Peaks/Raton mesa
regions. For this reason have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these
regions. Max temps will reach the century mark along the US-50
corridor along the plains east of pueblo...with mostly u90s
elsewhere plains. There will be a slight chance of some late
afternoon thunder along the CO/KS border...especially in Baca
county.
A weak boundary will come down the plains Monday night.
Tuesday...
Temps should be a bit cooler on this day as compared to
Monday...with highs on getting into the l/m90s plains. It appears it
will be too dry for any precip although cant rule out an isold storm
on the plains and e slopes of the mtns. Probability of this
occurring appears too low to explicitly mention in zones at this
time.
Wednesday...
flow aloft weakens as gradient slackens aloft. However...dry
weather is expected to continue over the region with only a slight
chance of a storm or two over the far eastern plains during the late
afternoon. Expect highs a degree or two higher than Tuesdays max
temps.
Thursday and Friday...
We will see a somewhat better chance of precip over the plains and
adjacent mtns as better lower lvl moisture is fcst to move into the
region. Max temps will cool slightly both days...but highs will
still be in the 90s on the plains both days. Some of the storms will
have the potential to be on the strong side as sufficient shear and
CAPE should be in place. Interior mtns/valleys should remain dry.
Next Weekend...
Drier conditions with temps approaching the century mark over the
lower elevations should return to the fcst region as flow from the
west-southwest increases over Colorado. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
VFR conditions will persist over the next 24-30 hours for the TAF
sites. As SW winds increase aloft, will se gusty W-SW winds develop
this afternoon, with some gusts in the 20-30 kt range possible for
the TAF sites. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out for the Pikes
Peak region, but probability of it affecting KCOS is fairly low, and
storms will be high-based. Stronger to severe storms will be
possible along and east of the dryline over the CO-KS border area
this afternoon and evening. Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ221-222-224>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-225-229-230-233.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
313 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
The well advertised area of low pressure and associated cold front that
will affect our weather today can be clearly seen on IR satellite
just barely off the Washington and Oregon coast this morning.
Models remain in excellent agreement that as the low continues to
approach our area, the gradient will tighten considerably bringing
some gusty winds to the area. Northern areas will see the
strongest winds as they`ll be closest to the low pressure with
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts possibly reaching as
high as 50 mph. For this reason, a wind advisory remains in effect
for our northern Colorado zones and one zone in Utah. A few other
areas may also see some winds approaching wind advisory levels but
they remain fairly borderline so day shift will need to keep an
eye on how this all plays out. Winds should start picking up
between 10AM through noon with the strongest winds expected
around 3PM onwards.
Along with the high winds, dry conditions also remain over the
area. Add to the equation dry fuels and explosive fire growth is
possible. Thus, a red flag warning remains in effect for much of eastern
Utah and western Colorado. Any new fire starts will spread
incredibly quickly with these winds so if hiking or playing
outside today, please be aware of any possible embers from
campfires or sparks from machinery and the effect they might have.
Like yesterday, a few clouds will form this afternoon as
temperatures remain a few degrees above normal. The cold front
looks to move through in the evening hours but with such little
moisture do not expect any precipitation.
For Monday, a wind shift to the northwest will usher in
noticeably cooler air as high temperatures drop anywhere from 10
to 15 degrees from those seen on Sunday. Areas north of I-70 will
see another day of some breezy conditions but nothing like those
seen on Sunday. Red flag conditions may be met again on Monday but
at this time, those conditions only look to occur for a few hours
so will hold off on any new fire weather highlights.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Little change day to day in the long term period. Atmospheric
moisture remains low throughout so not expecting any precipitation
except for the occasional afternoon shower or thunderstorm over
mountaintops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016
No ceiling or visibility issues expected today. Main concern will
be strong surface winds from 20 to 30 mph with some gusts reaching
40 mph, possibly higher at times. Winds will start picking up
between 16 to 18Z reaching a maximum around 21Z and continuing
through 03z or so.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Inversions will be weak tonight as the southwest winds aloft will
strengthen. Red Flag Warnings return with a vengeance on Sunday
as the cold front approaches. Hot afternoon temperatures will
produce very low humidity. Sunday afternoon wind gusts will range
from 35 to 45 mph in the valleys, 45 to 55 mph in the high
terrain. Monday will be much less hot and less windy.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
207-290-292.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Removed thunderstorms from the forecast for the rest of tonight
and updated the fire weather grids for tonight and Sunday using
the latest run of the NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Primary near/short term challenges include the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorm(potentially strong to severe at
times over eastern sections)...temperatures and localized elevated
fire weather concerns at times.
Forecast district currently experiencing above seasonal early to mid
July afternoon temperatures as noted by recent 100+F temperature
reading at Pueblo as well as locally gusty winds...favoring higher
terrain locations. Also, variable cloudiness was noted in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to the
north and south of the CWA at 3 PM MDT.
Recent PV analysis...real/near time data...computer simulations and
forecast models soundings indicate that developing southwesterly
upper flow will be noted over the forecast district into
Sunday...although enough atmospheric moisture will combine with the
daily orographic heating cycle and subtle upper disturbances to
allow for the potential of isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms during the next 24 hours...with the highest
potential of stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms over far
eastern sections...where deeper moisture resides. Also...at 3 PM MDT
this afternoon, localized most-unstable capes...LI`s and effective
bulk shear values are challenging 4000 J/KG...-7C and 30 knots
respectively over far southeastern Colorado. WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely.
In addition...above seasonal temperatures in combination with
projected gusty winds will allow for localized/elevated fire weather
concerns at times Sunday afternoon...with the highest potential for
more widespread fire weather concerns focused northwest to west to
southwest of the forecast district Sunday as noted by latest Day 2
SPC Fire Weather Outlook.
Finally, above seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures are
expected to continue over the forecast district during the next 24
hours with several eastern locations having the potential of hitting
or exceeding the Century mark Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
...Generally Hot and Dry with Isolated Thunderstorms...
Pattern shaping up to be generally hot and dry next week. Westerly
flow over the area with no major disturbances available through the
period. This will tend to keep the airmass dry with few if any
triggers available to kick off convection. Also, flow is rather
light so little in the way of shear available most of the time.
Could get some dryline activity at times along the eastern border
areas adjacent to Kansas. Also, weak disturbances crossing the
central and northern U.S. plains could send some moist boundaries
back this way at times Monday, Tuesday and especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Eastern Colorado looks to be on the western
perimeter of these boundaries, so the impacts would primarily be
limited to the far eastern plains but could also extend westward to
the eastern mountains at times.
During this hot and dry period, we will have to watch for developing
fire weather concerns. Fuels may generally be in good shape at this
point due to recent precipitation. However, several days of hot and
dry weather under the midsummer sun can quickly change all of that.
Fuels status will need to be monitored closely as grasses cure in
the days ahead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites for the
next 24 hrs. Gusty SW winds are expected at the forecast sites
Sun afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
912 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Removed thunderstorms from the forecast for the rest of tonight
and updated the fire weather grids for tonight and Sunday using
the latest run of the NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Primary near/short term challenges include the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorm(potentially strong to severe at
times over eastern sections)...temperatures and localized elevated
fire weather concerns at times.
Forecast district currently experiencing above seasonal early to mid
July afternoon temperatures as noted by recent 100+F temperature
reading at Pueblo as well as locally gusty winds...favoring higher
terrain locations. Also, variable cloudiness was noted in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to the
north and south of the CWA at 3 PM MDT.
Recent PV analysis...real/near time data...computer simulations and
forecast models soundings indicate that developing southwesterly
upper flow will be noted over the forecast district into
Sunday...although enough atmospheric moisture will combine with the
daily orographic heating cycle and subtle upper disturbances to
allow for the potential of isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms during the next 24 hours...with the highest
potential of stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms over far
eastern sections...where deeper moisture resides. Also...at 3 PM MDT
this afternoon, localized most-unstable capes...LI`s and effective
bulk shear values are challenging 4000 J/KG...-7C and 30 knots
respectively over far southeastern Colorado. WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely.
In addition...above seasonal temperatures in combination with
projected gusty winds will allow for localized/elevated fire weather
concerns at times Sunday afternoon...with the highest potential for
more widespread fire weather concerns focused northwest to west to
southwest of the forecast district Sunday as noted by latest Day 2
SPC Fire Weather Outlook.
Finally, above seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures are
expected to continue over the forecast district during the next 24
hours with several eastern locations having the potential of hitting
or exceeding the Century mark Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
...Generally Hot and Dry with Isolated Thunderstorms...
Pattern shaping up to be generally hot and dry next week. Westerly
flow over the area with no major disturbances available through the
period. This will tend to keep the airmass dry with few if any
triggers available to kick off convection. Also, flow is rather
light so little in the way of shear available most of the time.
Could get some dryline activity at times along the eastern border
areas adjacent to Kansas. Also, weak disturbances crossing the
central and northern U.S. plains could send some moist boundaries
back this way at times Monday, Tuesday and especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Eastern Colorado looks to be on the western
perimeter of these boundaries, so the impacts would primarily be
limited to the far eastern plains but could also extend westward to
the eastern mountains at times.
During this hot and dry period, we will have to watch for developing
fire weather concerns. Fuels may generally be in good shape at this
point due to recent precipitation. However, several days of hot and
dry weather under the midsummer sun can quickly change all of that.
Fuels status will need to be monitored closely as grasses cure in
the days ahead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Developing upper southwesterly flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during the next 24 hours.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
827 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Critical fire weather conditions have diminished as the sun was
setting this evening. Wind gusts were diminishing across most of
the valleys and lower slopes. A strong return to critical fire
weather conditions is expected Sunday. Wind gusts will be much
stronger as the cold front works through the Great Basin.
Temperatures too will rise in the pre-frontal gusty SW flow, so
humidity will be very low. Forecast is in good shape and updated
guidance supports the Sunday afternoon Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
High pressure across the Desert Southwest will keep the region dry
in the near term forecast period and beyond. A low pressure
system moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest this weekend will
significantly tighten the pressure gradient over the next 48
hours. In addition to the Red Flag Warnings already in place, have
issued wind advisories for the Eastern Uinta Basin in NE Utah and
the Lower and Central Yampa Basins in NW Colorado for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Soundings support in excess of 45 mph in
these places and potentially others further south, though
confidence is lower along the Moab to Rifle stretch with the
approach of the upper level jet happening later in the afternoon.
Conditions will be dry and windy with excellent mixing expected by
mid afternoon. In this prefrontal pattern, winds may very well
continue into the night as the front reaches the WY/UT/CO border
overnight into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
The strong southwesterly winds experienced on Sunday will shift to
westerly and northwesterly as the cold front passes very early
Monday morning. Conditions will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler
across NE Utah and NW Colorado on Monday but will recover quickly
as the week progresses. Atmospheric moisture remains low
throughout the week so not expecting any precipitation except for
the occasional afternoon shower or thunderstorm over
mountaintops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday midnight)
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The main
concern is the strong winds expected Sunday afternoon in advance
of the cold front timed to pass Sunday night. Southwest flow will
ramp up by late morning and overcome typical diurnal wind
patterns. TAF site gusts of 30 to 40 kts will continue through the
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Inversions will be weak tonight as the southwest winds aloft will
strengthen. Red Flag Warnings return with a vengeance on Sunday
as the cold front approaches. Hot afternoon temperatures will
produce very low humidity. Sunday afternoon wind gusts will range
from 35 to 45 mph in the valleys, 45 to 55 mph in the high
terrain. Monday will be much less hot and less windy.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
207-290-292.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ024.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Joe
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...Joe
FIRE WEATHER...Joe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
823 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Outside of fires not much going on as convection has ended over
the plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Very warm temperatures are occurring across the plains this
afternoon, but with generally light winds. Shower development has
been minimal up to this point, primarily over Lincoln County.
A forest fire has started a few miles north of Nederland, in south
central Boulder County, with the smoke plume visible out our back
window. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft will continue this
evening, but little else in the way of sensible weather. Mid level
temperatures appear to be warm enough to keep a lid on afternoon
shower development over the mountains. A few showers may still
develop as the evening wears on.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday as
the upper ridge aloft moves eastward. Southwesterly flow aloft is
expected to continue through Sunday and then begin increasing
Sunday evening. Humidity recovery will be poor in the foothills
overnight, and minimum humidities Sunday afternoon are expected to
be in the 10-15 percent range. Will issue a fire weather watch for
tomorrow because of the hot temperatures and low humidities.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Models have an upper trough to move over the CWA Sunday night
through Monday. There is zonal flow over the CWA after that
through Tuesday night. Models have fairly strong westerly flow
aloft for the CWA later Sunday night through Monday evening. The
QG Omega fields have upward synoptic scale energy over the
forecast area from 06z to 18z Monday. Downward motion is progged
after that into Tuesday night. The boundary layer flow is a
combination of drainage and southwesterly downsloping on Sunday
night. There is cold front to move in Monday morning with some
northerly, then easterly flow the rest of Monday. North and
northeasterly winds are progged Monday night into Tuesday night.
Moisture remains sparse for the CWA through Tuesday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.30 to 1.00 inch range
Sunday night. They dry out a bit more on Monday and Tuesday into
the 0.30 inch to 0.80 inch range. There is very limited to no CAPE
around all three late day periods. Same with the QPF fields, there
is a tiny bit of measurable rainfall over a bit of the CWA all
three late day periods. Will go with 10% pops Sunday evening for
the eastern border, otherwise no pops the rest of the time. For
temperatures, Monday`s highs are 4-8 C colder than Sunday`s.
Tuesday`s highs are 0-2 C warmer than Monday`s. For the later
days, Wednesday through Saturday, models have flat upper ridging
over the forecast area with west-northwesterly flow aloft all four
days. There is a bit more moisture progged Thursday through
Saturday, maybe enough for 10-20% pops in some areas. Temperatures
look to be near normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 812 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
a bndry went thru the dia and switched winds to the east. They
should become more sely shortly and then ssw after midnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 812 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Fire Danger will increase on Sunday. After coordination with IMET
have decided to issue a warning for the Beaver Creek Fire for
late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. In the foothills not
sure if winds will meet criteria so will leave watch in place.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for COZ215-216.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ217.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
536 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
High pressure across the Desert Southwest will keep the region dry
in the near term forecast period and beyond. A low pressure
system moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest this weekend will
significantly tighten the pressure gradient over the next 48
hours. In addition to the Red Flag Warnings already in place, have
issued wind advisories for the Eastern Uinta Basin in NE Utah and
the Lower and Central Yampa Basins in NW Colorado for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Soundings support in excess of 45 mph in
these places and potentially others further south, though
confidence is lower along the Moab to Rifle stretch with the
approach of the upper level jet happening later in the afternoon.
Conditions will be dry and windy with excellent mixing expected by
mid afternoon. In this prefrontal pattern, winds may very well
continue into the night as the front reaches the WY/UT/CO border
overnight into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
The strong southwesterly winds experienced on Sunday will shift to
westerly and northwesterly as the cold front passes very early
Monday morning. Conditions will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler
across NE Utah and NW Colorado on Monday but will recover quickly
as the week progresses. Atmospheric moisture remains low
throughout the week so not expecting any precipitation except for
the occasional afternoon shower or thunderstorm over
mountaintops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The main
concern is the strong winds expected tomorrow in advance of the
cold front to pass through Sunday night. Southwesterly flow will
ramp up by late morning and overcome typical diunral wind
patterns. Gusts 30 to 40 kts will be likely at most places thru
the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
A prolonged hot, dry and windy period is here as a storm system
passes across the states to our north over the next 48 hours.
Little precipitation is expected with this storm but strong winds
and a passing cold front will affect fire behavior. Fire weather
headlines are in place over the next few days as a deep area of
low pressure causes gusts today of 20 to 30 mph and 35 to 45 mph
for Sunday.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
207-290-292.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...BEN
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
336 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Very warm temperatures are occurring across the plains this
afternoon, but with generally light winds. Shower development has
been minimal up to this point, primarily over Lincoln County.
A forest fire has started a few miles north of Nederland, in south
central Boulder County, with the smoke plume visible out our back
window. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft will continue this
evening, but little else in the way of sensible weather. Mid level
temperatures appear to be warm enough to keep a lid on afternoon
shower development over the mountains. A few showers may still
develop as the evening wears on.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday as
the upper ridge aloft moves eastward. Southwesterly flow aloft is
expected to continue through Sunday and then begin increasing
Sunday evening. Humidity recovery will be poor in the foothills
overnight, and minimum humidities Sunday afternoon are expected to
be in the 10-15 percent range. Will issue a fire weather watch for
tomorrow because of the hot temperatures and low humidities.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Models have an upper trough to move over the CWA Sunday night
through Monday. There is zonal flow over the CWA after that
through Tuesday night. Models have fairly strong westerly flow
aloft for the CWA later Sunday night through Monday evening. The
QG Omega fields have upward synoptic scale energy over the
forecast area from 06z to 18z Monday. Downward motion is progged
after that into Tuesday night. The boundary layer flow is a
combination of drainage and southwesterly downsloping on Sunday
night. There is cold front to move in Monday morning with some
northerly, then easterly flow the rest of Monday. North and
northeasterly winds are progged Monday night into Tuesday night.
Moisture remains sparse for the CWA through Tuesday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.30 to 1.00 inch range
Sunday night. They dry out a bit more on Monday and Tuesday into
the 0.30 inch to 0.80 inch range. There is very limited to no CAPE
around all three late day periods. Same with the QPF fields, there
is a tiny bit of measurable rainfall over a bit of the CWA all
three late day periods. Will go with 10% pops Sunday evening for
the eastern border, otherwise no pops the rest of the time. For
temperatures, Monday`s highs are 4-8 C colder than Sunday`s.
Tuesday`s highs are 0-2 C warmer than Monday`s. For the later
days, Wednesday through Saturday, models have flat upper ridging
over the forecast area with west-northwesterly flow aloft all four
days. There is a bit more moisture progged Thursday through
Saturday, maybe enough for 10-20% pops in some areas. Temperatures
look to be near normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
minimal aviation impacts are expected overnight. winds should be
southeasterly overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
with poor humidity recovery expected overnight in the foothills
and minimum humidities tomorrow in the 10-15 percent range, will
issue a fire weather watch for zones 235 and 236 for tomorrow.
Winds are not expected to increase drastically until tomorrow
evening, but demonstrated fire behavior this afternoon shows that
tomorrow could be another critical day.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for COZ215-216.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
336 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Very warm temperatures are occurring across the plains this
afternoon, but with generally light winds. Shower development has
been minimal up to this point, primarily over Lincoln County.
A forest fire has started a few miles north of Nederland, in south
central Boulder County, with the smoke plume visible out our back
window. Light to moderate southwest flow aloft will continue this
evening, but little else in the way of sensible weather. Mid level
temperatures appear to be warm enough to keep a lid on afternoon
shower development over the mountains. A few showers may still
develop as the evening wears on.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday as
the upper ridge aloft moves eastward. Southwesterly flow aloft is
expected to continue through Sunday and then begin increasing
Sunday evening. Humidity recovery will be poor in the foothills
overnight, and minimum humidities Sunday afternoon are expected to
be in the 10-15 percent range. Will issue a fire weather watch for
tomorrow because of the hot temperatures and low humidities.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Models have an upper trough to move over the CWA Sunday night
through Monday. There is zonal flow over the CWA after that
through Tuesday night. Models have fairly strong westerly flow
aloft for the CWA later Sunday night through Monday evening. The
QG Omega fields have upward synoptic scale energy over the
forecast area from 06z to 18z Monday. Downward motion is progged
after that into Tuesday night. The boundary layer flow is a
combination of drainage and southwesterly downsloping on Sunday
night. There is cold front to move in Monday morning with some
northerly, then easterly flow the rest of Monday. North and
northeasterly winds are progged Monday night into Tuesday night.
Moisture remains sparse for the CWA through Tuesday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.30 to 1.00 inch range
Sunday night. They dry out a bit more on Monday and Tuesday into
the 0.30 inch to 0.80 inch range. There is very limited to no CAPE
around all three late day periods. Same with the QPF fields, there
is a tiny bit of measurable rainfall over a bit of the CWA all
three late day periods. Will go with 10% pops Sunday evening for
the eastern border, otherwise no pops the rest of the time. For
temperatures, Monday`s highs are 4-8 C colder than Sunday`s.
Tuesday`s highs are 0-2 C warmer than Monday`s. For the later
days, Wednesday through Saturday, models have flat upper ridging
over the forecast area with west-northwesterly flow aloft all four
days. There is a bit more moisture progged Thursday through
Saturday, maybe enough for 10-20% pops in some areas. Temperatures
look to be near normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
minimal aviation impacts are expected overnight. winds should be
southeasterly overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
with poor humidity recovery expected overnight in the foothills
and minimum humidities tomorrow in the 10-15 percent range, will
issue a fire weather watch for zones 235 and 236 for tomorrow.
Winds are not expected to increase drastically until tomorrow
evening, but demonstrated fire behavior this afternoon shows that
tomorrow could be another critical day.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for COZ215-216.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
High pressure across the Desert Southwest will keep the region dry
in the near term forecast period and beyond. A low pressure
system moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest this weekend will
significantly tighten the pressure gradient over the next 48
hours. In addition to the Red Flag Warnings already in place, have
issued wind advisories for the Eastern Uinta Basin in NE Utah and
the Lower and Central Yampa Basins in NW Colorado for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Soundings support in excess of 45 mph in
these places and potentially others further south, though
confidence is lower along the Moab to Rifle stretch with the
approach of the upper level jet happening later in the afternoon.
Conditions will be dry and windy with excellent mixing expected by
mid afternoon. In this prefrontal pattern, winds may very well
continue into the night as the front reaches the WY/UT/CO border
overnight into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
The strong southwesterly winds experienced on Sunday will shift to
westerly and northwesterly as the cold front passes very early
Monday morning. Conditions will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler
across NE Utah and NW Colorado on Monday but will recover quickly
as the week progresses. Atmospheric moisture remains low
throughout the week so not expecting any precipitation except for
the occasional afternoon shower or thunderstorm over
mountaintops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Wind gusts exceeding 25 mph will be the only threat to general
aviation this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise with skies
mostly clear, VFR conditions will hold over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
A prolonged hot, dry and windy period is here as a storm system
passes across the states to our north over the next 48 hours.
Little precipitation is expected with this storm but strong winds
and a passing cold front will affect fire behavior. Fire weather
headlines are in place over the next few days as a deep area of
low pressure causes gusts today of 20 to 30 mph and 35 to 45 mph
for Sunday.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
207-290-292.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ203-205.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Primary near/short term challenges include the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorm(potentially strong to severe at
times over eastern sections)...temperatures and localized elevated
fire weather concerns at times.
Forecast district currently experiencing above seasonal early to mid
July afternoon temperatures as noted by recent 100+F temperature
reading at Pueblo as well as locally gusty winds...favoring higher
terrain locations. Also, variable cloudiness was noted in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to the
north and south of the CWA at 3 PM MDT.
Recent PV analysis...real/near time data...computer simulations and
forecast models soundings indicate that developing southwesterly
upper flow will be noted over the forecast district into
Sunday...although enough atmospheric moisture will combine with the
daily orographic heating cycle and subtle upper disturbances to
allow for the potential of isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms during the next 24 hours...with the highest
potential of stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms over far
eastern sections...where deeper moisture resides. Also...at 3 PM MDT
this afternoon, localized most-unstable capes...LI`s and effective
bulk shear values are challenging 4000 J/KG...-7C and 30 knots
respectively over far southeastern Colorado. WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely.
In addition...above seasonal temperatures in combination with
projected gusty winds will allow for localized/elevated fire weather
concerns at times Sunday afternoon...with the highest potential for
more widespread fire weather concerns focused northwest to west to
southwest of the forecast district Sunday as noted by latest Day 2
SPC Fire Weather Outlook.
Finally, above seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures are
expected to continue over the forecast district during the next 24
hours with several eastern locations having the potential of hitting
or exceeding the Century mark Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
...Generally Hot and Dry with Isolated Thunderstorms...
Pattern shaping up to be generally hot and dry next week. Westerly
flow over the area with no major disturbances available through the
period. This will tend to keep the airmass dry with few if any
triggers available to kick off convection. Also, flow is rather
light so little in the way of shear available most of the time.
Could get some dryline activity at times along the eastern border
areas adjacent to Kansas. Also, weak disturbances crossing the
central and northern U.S. plains could send some moist boundaries
back this way at times Monday, Tuesday and especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Eastern Colorado looks to be on the western
perimeter of these boundaries, so the impacts would primarily be
limited to the far eastern plains but could also extend westward to
the eastern mountains at times.
During this hot and dry period, we will have to watch for developing
fire weather concerns. Fuels may generally be in good shape at this
point due to recent precipitation. However, several days of hot and
dry weather under the midsummer sun can quickly change all of that.
Fuels status will need to be monitored closely as grasses cure in
the days ahead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Developing upper southwesterly flow is expected to allow VFR
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during the next 24 hours.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Drier air will continue to overspread the area today, as mid and low
level flow gradually take on more of a W-SW component in response to
digging trough along the Pacific Coast. Still just enough moisture
lingering over the mountains to produce some isolated high based
afternoon convection, though rainfall amounts will be light and
convective coverage sparse as surface dewpoints fall off into the
20s and 30s. Slightly deeper moisture/instability hold on near the
KS border, with western edge of 45-55f dewpoints producing CAPE of
1000-2000 J/KG over Baca/Prowers/Ern Kiowa counties for a brief
period late this afternoon into the evening. Not much forcing to
trigger storms other than some weak surface convergence, but if a
storm forms it could become strong, with a brief window for some
near severe storms with gusty winds in the late afternoon/early
evening before activity shifts eastward toward sunset. Overall, cut
back or removed pops from many areas for today/tonight, as valleys/I-
25 corridor will see mainly virga/sprinkles at most from any
activity. Max temps today will climb back to well above seasonal
averages most locations as mid level temps rise and wrly flow
strengthens, with readings near 100f in a few spots on the plains by
late day. Overnight, skies should clear quickly as convection
diminishes by sunset, with dry air mass leading to seasonably cool
overnight lows most areas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
...Typical summer conditions continue...
Extended portion of the forecast continues to look rather
uneventful. A couple shortwaves moving through the northern
Rockies will interact with modest monsoonal moisture from the
south to bring a trend towards more storms and cooler weather
towards the end of the coming week.
Until then, we will see hot and generally dry conditions.
Sunday still looks like the hottest day of the period, with
temps over the Plains soaring into the lower 100s by mid-
afternoon. The NAM persists in showing some SCT convection
developing over the E Mts and Plains late in the afternoon.
Believe the extent may be overdone, given the dry SW flow
moving in from the 4 corners. But given the modest moisture
advection from the south, and weak disturbance ejecting ahead of
the trough over the PacNW, a few storms seem possible so will
maintain ISOLD POPs for most of the CWA. Could see some marginal
critical fire wx concerns develop on Sunday as well over the
Plains and high valleys.
Monday into Tuesday, dry flow from the W to SW will increase,
and POPs will be low across the area. Temps will remain in the
mid to upper 90s. There could be additional fire wx concerns
over the area each day. By late Wednesday, a front associated with
the troughs moving through S Canada will increase upslope flow
over the CWA, and this should lead to a cooler pattern, with
temps at or below climo through the end of the week. Will see a
better chance of storms, particularly over the E Mts and Plains. A
few of these storms could be on the strong side. The Contdvd and
Central Mts will remain relatively dry without a strong monsoon to
feed moisture moisture into W CO. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the KALS...KCOS and
KPUB taf sites into Sunday morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1044 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
High pressure will remain overhead today though the ridge axis
will shift eastward through the day. Low dewpoints and
precipitable water will keep dry conditions in place while a
closed low approaches from the west. This closed low will cause
the surface gradient to tighten today creating critical fire
weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this
afternoon for these conditions. However, the bigger concern will
be Sunday as the low continues its eastward trek and really
tightens that pressure gradient. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
possible and with continued dry conditions in place along with
critical fuels, explosive fire growth will be possible. And with
that, a Red Flag Warning is also in effect for Sunday.
Outside of fire weather concerns, plenty of sun expected with
some afternoon clouds popping up. A few stray showers, maybe even
a thundershower, may form along the Divide but coverage will be
minimal at best. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than
normal.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
Overall, the extended period will be non-exciting except for the
first few periods as the westerlies stay strong enough along the
northern CONUS border do suppress moisture to our south. The
models are in good agreement in swinging the Pacific Northwest
system across the Northern Rockies into the northern High Plains
through Monday. The breaking down of the ridge over the central
Rockies is a classic fire weather pattern and should bring high
fire danger to many of lower and mid elevations of the region.
Think guidance temperatures are too low in this environment so
kept highs near persistence. A noticeable cool down comes Sunday
night into Monday behind this system with highs being knocked down
by 10 to 15 degrees. Hard to be optimistic about rain chances
through the week but the models are trying to tap into some
moisture by late in the period. Otherwise, temperatures will
gradually regain the 10 degrees lost early in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Wind gusts exceeding 25 mph will be the only threat to general
aviation this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise with skies
mostly clear, VFR conditions will hold over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
A prolonged hot, dry and windy period is shaping up for the
weekend as a storm system passes across the states to our north.
Little precipitation is expected with this storm but strong winds
and a passing cold front will affect fire behavior. Fire weather
headlines are in place over the next few days as a deep area of
low pressure causes gusts today of 20 to 30 mph and 30 to 40 mph
for Sunday. Continued dry conditions will be fire weather
concerns elevated.
$$
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ200-202.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290-292.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
UTZ487-490.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290-292.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1010 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Previous forecast package contained rain showers over the
mountains and northeast plains rather than the mention of
thunderstorms. Forecast has been updated to change the rain
showers to thunderstorms. Hot weather is the other feature of the
forecast with afternoon highs climbing to the mid and upper 90s
across the plains. Strong upper ridging over the southwestern U.S.
will keep the warm weather in place over the region through the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Upper level ridge axis will move across Colorado today and be
east of the state tonight. This will bring drier and warmer air to
the state. A surface trough will be over eastern Colorado.
Southerly winds to the east of it will help retain low level
moisture. Expect isolated thunderstorms to form along the
boundary late this afternoon and early evening. Can`t rule out a
severe storm or two before they move off into Nebraska and Kansas.
It will be drier farther west with precipitable water values
ranging from around a third of an inch over the higher terrain to
two- thirds of an inch over the eastern plains. May see a few weak
storms form over the higher terrain, including the Palmer Divide
and Cheyenne Ridge. If any storms form here, they are expected to
produce light to moderate rain and gusty outflow winds. Highs
today will be a few degrees warmer with 90s expected across
northeast Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
A drier and warmer pattern returns to the region with increased
fire weather concerns.
For Sunday the upper level ridge will degrade as a closed low
over the Pacific NW with a trailing trough pushes into NW CO
turning flow more SW. Surface high pressure will build during the
afternoon. This will be the warmest day of the week with near
record high temperatures in the upper 90s. Winds will increase
with strong SW flow ahead of an approaching front upstream. These
winds will increase through the afternoon...especially over and
near the Park Range with gusts up to 40 mph by the late afternoon.
This will bring an increased fire weather concern with lowered RH
values from increased mixing. I have elaborated more on this in
the fire weather section below.
A cold front will move in from the NW bringing BL flow from the
SW to NW into late Sunday/early Monday. At this time models QPF
fields are not showing a great deal of moisture with this system.
PW values in the mountains are around 0.5 with moderate mid level
lapse rates around 8. Some dry thunderstorms could develop over
the higher terrain by the afternoon but confidence is low as I
believe more moisture will be needed and if some development
occurs coverage will not be large. With the cold front will come
cooler temperatures with highs dipping back into the upper 80s.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as the upper level ridge
builds back in moving upper level flow more zonal. Temperatures
will hover around normal in the upper 80s on Tuesday but will
return to the 90s for Wednesday and Thursday. Models show a cold
front under the ridge for Wednesday night into Thursday that will
increase moisture on the plains. At this time there is some
agreement amongst the models with QPF with the GFS showing modest
returns on the plains and Palmer Divide and the EC with the more
aggressive solution. Will go middle of the road for now with a
slight chance of thunderstorms on the plains with decent CAPE
values at 1500+ J/kg. Veering profiles show deep shear values in
the mid 40s to even lower 50s at this point so if storms develop
then large hail and with PW values nearing 1 inch some heavy rain
will also be possible.
Friday into the weekend will see dry conditions with isolated
afternoon convection on the plains. Temperatures will continue to
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
no aviation impacts expected through this afternoon and tonight.
Showers over the foothills during the afternoon and over the far
northeastern plains later this evening may produce some gusty
outflow winds that affect the airports, but the impact should be
minor and short-lived.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Continue to have concerns regarding fire weather for Sunday
afternoon and evening...mainly over zones 211 and 217. Models are
still bringing increased winds to those areas for Sunday from 18z
to about 06z monday. Winds will increase from the SW ahead of an
incoming frontal boundary. Heating from a strengthening upper
ridge will help to increase temperatures across the region on
Sunday. This will help with mixing through the day and could bring
RH values to a critical level. At this time both the NAM and GFS
show poor RH recovery over the zones but with it bottoming out
near 18%. This value does not meet Red Flag criteria...however
with increased mixing to the region...especially near the Beaver
Creek fire...the area could see lower RH values come Sunday late
afternoon.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Drier air will continue to overspread the area today, as mid and low
level flow gradually take on more of a W-SW component in response to
digging trough along the Pacific Coast. Still just enough moisture
lingering over the mountains to produce some isolated high based
afternoon convection, though rainfall amounts will be light and
convective coverage sparse as surface dewpoints fall off into the
20s and 30s. Slightly deeper moisture/instability hold on near the
KS border, with western edge of 45-55f dewpoints producing CAPE of
1000-2000 J/KG over Baca/Prowers/Ern Kiowa counties for a brief
period late this afternoon into the evening. Not much forcing to
trigger storms other than some weak surface convergence, but if a
storm forms it could become strong, with a brief window for some
near severe storms with gusty winds in the late afternoon/early
evening before activity shifts eastward toward sunset. Overall, cut
back or removed pops from many areas for today/tonight, as valleys/I-
25 corridor will see mainly virga/sprinkles at most from any
activity. Max temps today will climb back to well above seasonal
averages most locations as mid level temps rise and wrly flow
strengthens, with readings near 100f in a few spots on the plains by
late day. Overnight, skies should clear quickly as convection
diminishes by sunset, with dry air mass leading to seasonably cool
overnight lows most areas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
...Typical summer conditions continue...
Extended portion of the forecast continues to look rather
uneventful. A couple shortwaves moving through the northern
Rockies will interact with modest monsoonal moisture from the
south to bring a trend towards more storms and cooler weather
towards the end of the coming week.
Until then, we will see hot and generally dry conditions.
Sunday still looks like the hottest day of the period, with
temps over the Plains soaring into the lower 100s by mid-
afternoon. The NAM persists in showing some SCT convection
developing over the E Mts and Plains late in the afternoon.
Believe the extent may be overdone, given the dry SW flow
moving in from the 4 corners. But given the modest moisture
advection from the south, and weak disturbance ejecting ahead of
the trough over the PacNW, a few storms seem possible so will
maintain ISOLD POPs for most of the CWA. Could see some marginal
critical fire wx concerns develop on Sunday as well over the
Plains and high valleys.
Monday into Tuesday, dry flow from the W to SW will increase,
and POPs will be low across the area. Temps will remain in the
mid to upper 90s. There could be additional fire wx concerns
over the area each day. By late Wednesday, a front associated with
the troughs moving through S Canada will increase upslope flow
over the CWA, and this should lead to a cooler pattern, with
temps at or below climo through the end of the week. Will see a
better chance of storms, particularly over the E Mts and Plains. A
few of these storms could be on the strong side. The Contdvd and
Central Mts will remain relatively dry without a strong monsoon to
feed moisture moisture into W CO. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight. Very isolated
tsra possible over the mountains and near the KS border this
afternoon and evening, but with low levels drying, storm coverage
will be too sparse for a vcts mention in any taf. Some virga and
gusty outflow winds may briefly occur at all terminals from about
21z-00z before light drainage winds redevelop overnight.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
332 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
High pressure will remain overhead today though the ridge axis
will shift eastward through the day. Low dewpoints and
precipitable water will keep dry conditions in place while a
closed low approaches from the west. This closed low will cause
the surface gradient to tighten today creating critical fire
weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this
afternoon for these conditions. However, the bigger concern will
be Sunday as the low continues its eastward trek and really
tightens that pressure gradient. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
possible and with continued dry conditions in place along with
critical fuels, explosive fire growth will be possible. And with
that, a Red Flag Warning is also in effect for Sunday.
Outside of fire weather concerns, plenty of sun expected with
some afternoon clouds popping up. A few stray showers, maybe even
a thundershower, may form along the Divide but coverage will be
minimal at best. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than
normal.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
Overall, the extended period will be non-exciting except for the
first few periods as the westerlies stay strong enough along the
northern CONUS border do suppress moisture to our south. The
models are in good agreement in swinging the Pacific Northwest
system across the Northern Rockies into the northern High Plains
through Monday. The breaking down of the ridge over the central
Rockies is a classic fire weather pattern and should bring high
fire danger to many of lower and mid elevations of the region.
Think guidance temperatures are too low in this environment so
kept highs near persistence. A noticeable cool down comes Sunday
night into Monday behind this system with highs being knocked down
by 10 to 15 degrees. Hard to be optimistic about rain chances
through the week but the models are trying to tap into some
moisture by late in the period. Otherwise, temperatures will
gradually regain the 10 degrees lost early in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Some gusty afternoon winds of 20 to 30 MPH are expected but
outside of that, no aviation concerns expected. Aviators can
expect sunny skies with some afternoon clouds. VFR conditions to
continue for the next 24 hours and beyond.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
A prolonged hot, dry and windy period is shaping up for the
weekend as a storm system passes across the states to our north.
Little precipitation is expected with this storm but strong winds
and a passing cold front will affect fire behavior. Fire weather
headlines are in place over the next few days as a deep area of
low pressure causes gusts today of 20 to 30 mph and 30 to 40 mph
for Sunday. Continued dry conditions will be fire weather
concerns elevated.
$$
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ200-202.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290-292.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
UTZ487-490.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-
490-491.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
320 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Upper level ridge axis will move across Colorado today and be
east of the state tonight. This will bring drier and warmer air to
the state. A surface trough will be over eastern Colorado.
Southerly winds to the east of it will help retain low level
moisture. Expect isolated thunderstorms to form along the
boundary late this afternoon and early evening. Can`t rule out a
severe storm or two before they move off into Nebraska and Kansas.
It will be drier farther west with precipitable water values
ranging from around a third of an inch over the higher terrain to
two- thirds of an inch over the eastern plains. May see a few weak
storms form over the higher terrain, including the Palmer Divide
and Cheyenne Ridge. If any storms form here, they are expected to
produce light to moderate rain and gusty outflow winds. Highs
today will be a few degrees warmer with 90s expected across
northeast Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
A drier and warmer pattern returns to the region with increased
fire weather concerns.
For Sunday the upper level ridge will degrade as a closed low
over the Pacific NW with a trailing trough pushes into NW CO
turning flow more SW. Surface high pressure will build during the
afternoon. This will be the warmest day of the week with near
record high temperatures in the upper 90s. Winds will increase
with strong SW flow ahead of an approaching front upstream. These
winds will increase through the afternoon...especially over and
near the Park Range with gusts up to 40 mph by the late afternoon.
This will bring an increased fire weather concern with lowered RH
values from increased mixing. I have elaborated more on this in
the fire weather section below.
A cold front will move in from the NW bringing BL flow from the
SW to NW into late Sunday/early Monday. At this time models QPF
fields are not showing a great deal of moisture with this system.
PW values in the mountains are around 0.5 with moderate mid level
lapse rates around 8. Some dry thunderstorms could develop over
the higher terrain by the afternoon but confidence is low as I
believe more moisture will be needed and if some development
occurs coverage will not be large. With the cold front will come
cooler temperatures with highs dipping back into the upper 80s.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as the upper level ridge
builds back in moving upper level flow more zonal. Temperatures
will hover around normal in the upper 80s on Tuesday but will
return to the 90s for Wednesday and Thursday. Models show a cold
front under the ridge for Wednesday night into Thursday that will
increase moisture on the plains. At this time there is some
agreement amongst the models with QPF with the GFS showing modest
returns on the plains and Palmer Divide and the EC with the more
aggressive solution. Will go middle of the road for now with a
slight chance of thunderstorms on the plains with decent CAPE
values at 1500+ J/kg. Veering profiles show deep shear values in
the mid 40s to even lower 50s at this point so if storms develop
then large hail and with PW values nearing 1 inch some heavy rain
will also be possible.
Friday into the weekend will see dry conditions with isolated
afternoon convection on the plains. Temperatures will continue to
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible over the higher terrain and to the east of the Denver
area. There is a slight chance an outflow from convection produces
a wind shift around 00z. Southerly winds will become light around
16z and turn easterly after 18z. By 03z...southerly winds will
return.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016
Continue to have concerns regarding fire weather for Sunday
afternoon and evening...mainly over zones 211 and 217. Models are
still bringing increased winds to those areas for Sunday from 18z
to about 06z monday. Winds will increase from the SW ahead of an
incoming frontal boundary. Heating from a strengthening upper
ridge will help to increase temperatures across the region on
Sunday. This will help with mixing through the day and could bring
RH values to a critical level. At this time both the NAM and GFS
show poor RH recovery over the zones but with it bottoming out
near 18%. This value does not meet Red Flag criteria...however
with increased mixing to the region...especially near the Beaver
Creek fire...the area could see lower RH values come Sunday late
afternoon.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
Thunderstorms on the downward trend across the area this
evening though latest HRRR still has a few lingering across
the plains through midnight. Have updated to let the severe
thunderstorm watch expire at 8 PM.
UPDATE Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
...Updated zones/grids to include Baca...Bent...Crowley
...Huerfano...Kiowa...Las Animas...Otero...Prowers and
Pueblo counties in a severe thunderstorm watch until 8
PM MDT...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
...Active evening then quieter Saturday...
Shortwave will move onto the plains and interact with deep surface
moisture next several hours. Likely to see increased convection
over the Palmer Divide...organizing and tracking southeast across
the plains through the evening. Also...more discrete convection
likely elsewhere along and east of the mountains. Primary threats
will include large hail to golf ball size...winds around 70
mph...heavy rain...flooding and lightning with a small chance of
an isolated tornado.
Warmer and drier Saturday with much more isolated activity.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
thinking with primary longer term issues being temperatures,
pops, the potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
at times into Saturday evening and then again by next Thursday as
well as elevated fire weather concerns at times.
Latest longer range forecast model soundings. PV analysis and
computer simulations indicate that upper disturbances will
continue to interact with adequate atmospheric moisture into
Saturday night...capable of producing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms...strong to possibly severe at times as
projected Saturday evening localized capes, LI`s and deep layer
shear values challenge 2000 J/KG...-6C and 45 knots at times.
WFO Pueblo will continue to monitor closely.
It still appears that a return to generally drier conditions
should be experienced across the forecast district from Sunday
into at least mid-week thanks to drier southwesterly to zonal
upper flow. In addition, it still appears that the highest
potential for elevated fire weather concerns should be noted from
Sunday into Tuesday, with Monday expected to have the highest
potential of more widespread near critical to critical fire
weather conditions at times. Then a return to more unsettled
conditions is projected by next Thursday and Friday as next
system impacts the forecast district.
Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures should continue to run
near or above early July climatological averages during the
longer term in combination with gusty gradient winds from later
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2016
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop over the mountains Saturday
afternoon...but will be much more isolated than the past couple
days. Given the more sparse coverage...will not include VCTS in
the TAF sites. Winds will generally be light and more diurnally
driven.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and
southern plains Today and Tonight.
Early this morning an area of elevated thunderstorms were developing
across southeast NE due to weak isentropic lift. These storms were
back building to the northwest but were slowly shifting southeast.
The north central and northeast counties may see an isolated
thunderstorm during the morning hours.
Today and Tonight, most numerical models show any weak outflow
boundaries washing out through the day. The WRF, HRRR and RAP models
show the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this morning
across the CWA but these should diminish as the boundary layer mixes
deeper.
The WRF solutions along with the HRRR forecast isolated
thunderstorms to develop across portions of east central and early
this evening across portions of northeast and east central KS ahead
of minor MCV that develops across northeast NE this morning and
tracks southeast. There is a very weak cap so any type of minor
ascent could cause a few isolated storms to develop during the late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. The remainder of the
night will remain dry.
Highs Today will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. Surface dewpoints
will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the afternoon hours
which will cause heat indices to rise into the mid 90s to around 100
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
Sunday afternoon and much of Monday should remain dry with a mid to
upper ridge advecting overhead. Should mix to around the 800mb
level on both days which should help our temps to rise into the
mid 90s. With ample sunshine and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s, heat index values will be hot but should remain under
advisory level criteria. Winds will likely increase ahead of the
deepening North Pac Low as it advects into the Northern Plains
region.
This system leaves questions about what type of weather we see late
Monday evening into Tuesday morning and how much. ECMWF and GFS are
coming into good agreement on positioning of major features, but the
NAM is slowing the arrival of the cold boundary perhaps lifting the
overall system to a more northerly track quicker. Regardless, at
this time, it is hard to say with great certainty on what specific
type of storms will occur and coverage. Better large scale ascent
is focused to the north of the CWA. Overall hint is that the cold
push is modified and slows down as it enters the Central Plains.
This system eventually sets up a stationary boundary across the
region that allows for precip chances off and on the bulk of the
week ahead. But for Monday night into Tuesday, storms may have a
hard time getting going initially as the 700mb level temps seem to
be at or above 12C. Additionally, if the cold push is weak, then
with weak forcing, it may be too hard to get storms to form this
far south until later into the night as a LLJ noses into the area.
Perhaps storms become are more elevated and form a complex that
then propagates east with time. Then into the day on Tuesday
better shear profiles seem to take shape for the rest of the
period. With a transition in the upper levels to a quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow regime, there could be periods where storm
chances are greater through at least Thursday, but hard to
pinpoint at this time with any shortwave advecting overhead.
Bottom line, some storms could be strong to severe given a
conditionally unstable environment in place. High temps remain in
the 90s with no strong advection either way in place for any
prolonged period of time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
VFR ceilings over the area should remain SCT to BKN. Winds from the
southwest will be under 10kts through the period. Any chances for
TSRA are too low to mention at this time.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and
southern plains Today and Tonight.
Early this morning an area of elevated thunderstorms were developing
across southeast NE due to weak isentropic lift. These storms were
back building to the northwest but were slowly shifting southeast.
The north central and northeast counties may see an isolated
thunderstorm during the morning hours.
Today and Tonight, most numerical models show any weak outflow
boundaries washing out through the day. The WRF, HRRR and RAP models
show the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this morning
across the CWA but these should diminish as the boundary layer mixes
deeper.
The WRF solutions along with the HRRR forecast isolated
thunderstorms to develop across portions of east central and early
this evening across portions of northeast and east central KS ahead
of minor MCV that develops across northeast NE this morning and
tracks southeast. There is a very weak cap so any type of minor
ascent could cause a few isolated storms to develop during the late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. The remainder of the
night will remain dry.
Highs Today will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. Surface dewpoints
will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the afternoon hours
which will cause heat indices to rise into the mid 90s to around 100
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
Sunday afternoon and much of Monday should remain dry with a mid to
upper ridge advecting overhead. Should mix to around the 800mb
level on both days which should help our temps to rise into the
mid 90s. With ample sunshine and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s, heat index values will be hot but should remain under
advisory level criteria. Winds will likely increase ahead of the
deepening North Pac Low as it advects into the Northern Plains
region.
This system leaves questions about what type of weather we see late
Monday evening into Tuesday morning and how much. ECMWF and GFS are
coming into good agreement on positioning of major features, but the
NAM is slowing the arrival of the cold boundary perhaps lifting the
overall system to a more northerly track quicker. Regardless, at
this time, it is hard to say with great certainty on what specific
type of storms will occur and coverage. Better large scale ascent
is focused to the north of the CWA. Overall hint is that the cold
push is modified and slows down as it enters the Central Plains.
This system eventually sets up a stationary boundary across the
region that allows for precip chances off and on the bulk of the
week ahead. But for Monday night into Tuesday, storms may have a
hard time getting going initially as the 700mb level temps seem to
be at or above 12C. Additionally, if the cold push is weak, then
with weak forcing, it may be too hard to get storms to form this
far south until later into the night as a LLJ noses into the area.
Perhaps storms become are more elevated and form a complex that
then propagates east with time. Then into the day on Tuesday
better shear profiles seem to take shape for the rest of the
period. With a transition in the upper levels to a quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow regime, there could be periods where storm
chances are greater through at least Thursday, but hard to
pinpoint at this time with any shortwave advecting overhead.
Bottom line, some storms could be strong to severe given a
conditionally unstable environment in place. High temps remain in
the 90s with no strong advection either way in place for any
prolonged period of time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds from the
southeast will generally be under 10 kts. The chances for any TSRA
are too low to mention at a given terminal at this time.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and
southern plains Today and Tonight.
Early this morning an area of elevated thunderstorms were developing
across southeast NE due to weak isentropic lift. These storms were
back building to the northwest but were slowly shifting southeast.
The north central and northeast counties may see an isolated
thunderstorm during the morning hours.
Today and Tonight, most numerical models show any weak outflow
boundaries washing out through the day. The WRF, HRRR and RAP models
show the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this morning
across the CWA but these should diminish as the boundary layer mixes
deeper.
The WRF solutions along with the HRRR forecast isolated
thunderstorms to develop across portions of east central and early
this evening across portions of northeast and east central KS ahead
of minor MCV that develops across northeast NE this morning and
tracks southeast. There is a very weak cap so any type of minor
ascent could cause a few isolated storms to develop during the late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. The remainder of the
night will remain dry.
Highs Today will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. Surface dewpoints
will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the afternoon hours
which will cause heat indices to rise into the mid 90s to around 100
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
Sunday afternoon and much of Monday should remain dry with a mid to
upper ridge advecting overhead. Should mix to around the 800mb
level on both days which should help our temps to rise into the
mid 90s. With ample sunshine and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s, heat index values will be hot but should remain under
advisory level criteria. Winds will likely increase ahead of the
deepening North Pac Low as it advects into the Northern Plains
region.
This system leaves questions about what type of weather we see late
Monday evening into Tuesday morning and how much. ECMWF and GFS are
coming into good agreement on positioning of major features, but the
NAM is slowing the arrival of the cold boundary perhaps lifting the
overall system to a more northerly track quicker. Regardless, at
this time, it is hard to say with great certainty on what specific
type of storms will occur and coverage. Better large scale ascent
is focused to the north of the CWA. Overall hint is that the cold
push is modified and slows down as it enters the Central Plains.
This system eventually sets up a stationary boundary across the
region that allows for precip chances off and on the bulk of the
week ahead. But for Monday night into Tuesday, storms may have a
hard time getting going initially as the 700mb level temps seem to
be at or above 12C. Additionally, if the cold push is weak, then
with weak forcing, it may be too hard to get storms to form this
far south until later into the night as a LLJ noses into the area.
Perhaps storms become are more elevated and form a complex that
then propagates east with time. Then into the day on Tuesday
better shear profiles seem to take shape for the rest of the
period. With a transition in the upper levels to a quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow regime, there could be periods where storm
chances are greater through at least Thursday, but hard to
pinpoint at this time with any shortwave advecting overhead.
Bottom line, some storms could be strong to severe given a
conditionally unstable environment in place. High temps remain in
the 90s with no strong advection either way in place for any
prolonged period of time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any
convective activity. Chances at the terminals are low for tsra for
inclusion at this time. Winds light east becoming southeast around
10 kts by 15Z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
Despite some morning clouds and an easterly wind across the area,
temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90, save the far
south which is still holding in the lower 80s as clouds continue
there. Several small waves noted in the flow, one of which is
approaching central kansas at this hour. Experimental HRRR has a
relatively reasonable solution that brings the MCV into the CWA and
interacts with an outflow moving up from the south out of earlier
convection, and brings a round of showers and thunderstorms across
western and southern areas later this afternoon into the evening.
Wind fields are weak, although CAPE could be enough to generate some
wind with storms that develop. LLJ is only around 25kts overnight,
but may redevelop storms over central/south central Kansas overnight
and move eastward across mainly our southern counties. Only
carrying slight chance to low chance PoPs given coverage and
uncertainty. Lows tonight forecast near 70 with highs on Saturday
in the upper 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
No major changes made in the extended with still some variances in
model guidance on timing and coverage of precipitation. Best chances
for seeing more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with
the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday. More details below.
Temporary ridging aloft Saturday night and Sunday should keep much
of the area dry. Strong upper trough across the Inter Mountain West
deepens a lee trough over the Rockies Sunday and Monday, increasing
southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained in the afternoon. Gusts up
to 30 mph are possible, alleviating slightly the hot and humid
conditions with readings in the lower and middle 90s.
The aforementioned upper trough ejects over the northern plains
Monday evening and Tuesday, surging the cold front into north
central KS in the overnight hours. Guidance continues to exhibit
high confidence in this scenario and have raised pops into the
likely category near the KS and NE border. Ample mixed layer CAPE
and effective shear parameters near 40 kts could develop a few
strong to severe storms over north central areas. This activity
pushes south and east on Tuesday, spreading chances towards the
entire CWA.
Models differ some Tuesday evening onward as the frontal boundary
hangs up across the area. Subtle impulses embedded within the
northwesterly flow aloft signals multiple rounds of thunderstorms,
especially on Wednesday evening. Temps hover near normal values in
the lower 90s for highs and low 70s for overnight lows, likely to
drop into the 80s by the end of the period as the frontal boundary
shifts south of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any
convective activity. Chances at the terminals are low for tsra for
inclusion at this time. Winds light east becoming southeast around
10 kts by 15Z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1117 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016
...Aviation discussion updated...
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will support
continued gusty northwest to north winds focused across the
mountains and interior valleys tonight. A warming trend will
occur through much of the workweek as high pressure aloft over the
Desert Southwest builds in. A low pressure system may build back
into the West Coast for next weekend and bring cooler conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
The latest satellite imagery indicates a trough of low pressure
moving into the Northern Rockies this evening from the Pacific
Northwest, while a ridge of high pressure remains anchored over
the Desert Southwest. A northerly surface gradient continues to
create gusty winds across the Central Coast, Transverse Mountain
Ranges and the Antelope Valley and Santa Barbara South Coast.
Wind advisories for the Central Coast and the Antelope Valley will
likely be allowed to expire this evening, while remaining in
effect for the Los Angeles and Ventura County Mountains and
Southern Santa Barbara County through late tonight.
Fog product imagery indicates little, if any marine layer stratus
coverage this evening across Southwest California. A patch of
stratus is apparent off the Orange and San Diego County coastlines
this evening. An eddy circulation should develop tonight in the
low- level northwest flow parallel to the Southern California
coastline. Stratus coverage should spread back north into the area
after midnight and into Monday morning. Current stratus coverage
looks agreeable at this time and no changes are planned.
After a cool day on Monday, high pressure aloft over the Desert
Southwest will build and expand westward into the region through
much of the workweek. A warming trend will develop on Tuesday and
continue into late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
Gale force NW winds across the outer waters will help to spin up
an eddy circulation across the SoCal bight tonight. Low clouds are
expected to deepen across L.A. and most of Ventura county coast
and valleys overnight into Monday. Confidence is good that low
clouds should reach the foothills of the San Gabriel Valley.
However with a sharp northerly wind gradient, the San Fernando
valley might not see widespread low clouds...especially across the
northern and western portions. Also the Ventura County interior
valleys could remain clear overnight. That being said, will not
not be surprised if all of LA,VTU county valleys see widespread
stratus. Have left low clouds out of the Santa Barbara South Coast
for early Monday morning as northerly winds should hold off any
stratus to develop. Yet off the coast the eddy could bring some
stratus just off the SBA coast by sunrise Monday.
As far as temps...inland areas will see a modest cooling trend
today and Monday...while coastal areas will continue to be within
a degree or two of the previous days. The one exception will be
the Santa Barbara South Coast due to the strong Sundowner wind
event expected late this afternoon. Highs should reach the mid to
upper 80s...with a few degrees of cooling on Monday as NW winds
will not be as strong across the SBA south coast.
By Tuesday, the upper trough will be well east of the area and the
upper ridge in nrn Mexico will expand back into Southern
California helping to warm inland temps once again. The marine
layer will stay in tact but some subsidence will cause the
inversion to strengthen and become more shallow. The Antelope
Valley and interior valleys will reach the mid 90s while coastal
valleys will be in the mid 80s to a few spots reaching the lower
90s. Still quite seasonable across coastal areas.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
Both the GFS and EC continue to agree that a 594 DM upper ridge
will expand back over the region from nrn Mexico on Wed and Thu.
This will cause the marine layer to become more shallow (between
800-1400 ft) still bringing areas of low clouds into the coastal
valleys each night through morning hours. Onshore flow will be a
tad weaker so inland areas should warm up into the 90s...while the
Antelope Valley reaches triple digit temps. The warmest day of the
week should be Thursday, with high temps away from the coast about
3-6 degrees above normal on Thursday.
By Friday...both the GFS and EC models continue to be in good
agreement indicating another upper level trough...(not as deep as
the one today) to move in over the region. This will cause high
temps to cool a few degrees across inland areas yet remaining
above average for this time of year. The marine layer will deepen
with a stronger onshore flow expected. Greater cooling expected
for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...10/06Z...
At 05Z at KLAX... the inversion was about 2950 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was around 3750 feet with a temperature near
21 degrees Celsius.
Overall... Moderate confidence in the 06z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is due to the uncertainty in the timing and intensity
of the marine incursion. IFR/MVFR conditions will move into KLAX
and KLGB by 10z and into KBUR, KVNY, and KOXR by 13z. The
conditions will dissipate in the valley by 17z and may linger
along the coast through 19z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR
conditions will prevail.
KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 06z TAF. The reduced
confidence is due to the uncertainty in the timing and intensity
of the marine incursion. IFR/MVFR conditions will move in by 10z
and may linger through 19z. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail.
KBUR... Moderate confidence in the 06z TAF. The reduced
confidence is due to the uncertainty in the timing and intensity
of the marine incursion. There is a sixty percent chance of
IFR/MVFR conditions 13z-16z. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail.
&&
.MARINE...10/800 PM.
High confidence in northwest gales over the outer waters from
Piedras Blancas to San Nicolas Island through late tonight. Lower
confidence in Gales over the nearshore waters north of Point Sal,
and will lower to SCA after 8 PM this evening. Short period seas
around 10 feet at 7 seconds over the outer waters will pose
significant hazard to Small Craft. SCA conditions for the Santa
Barbara Channel will include gusty winds and hazardous seas 5 to
7 feet at 6 seconds.
Winds will diminish some by early Monday morning, but will remain
at SCA levels from the northwest with gusts to 30 knots through
Thursday. Seas will remain around 8 to 11 feet at 8 seconds
through Tuesday and then slowly diminish through Thursday.
Hazardous short period seas will affect portions of the inner
waters...including those north of Point Sal, the Santa Barbara
Channel, and outer portions of the waters west of L.A. County.
Moderate period south swells generated by Celia are expected to
begin to arrive Tuesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...10/300 PM
An upper level trough passing through California today will
continue to bring GUSTY northwest to north winds across the
region through tonight. The strongest winds will be focused across
the mountains...Antelope Valley, and Santa Barbara south coast
where gusts between 40 and 50 mph can be expected. Drier air will
continue to filter into the mountains and Antelope Valley this
afternoon and evening, with widespread humidities in the teens and
localized single digit readings across the higher peaks. The
combination of gusty winds and low humidities with very dry fuels
will bring critical red flag conditions to the mountains and
Antelope Valley through tonight.
The sundowner wind event is expected to be stronger and more
widespread than last night across the Santa Ynez mountains and
SBA south coast. Initially, the gusty sundowner winds will be
focused across western portions of the south coast and adjacent
foothills this afternoon, then winds will spread eastward across
the foothills this evening. The strongest winds in the foothills
above Santa Barbara and Montecito are expected to occur between 8
pm and 3 am tonight. The gusty downslope winds will bring warming
temperatures as high as 90 degrees along with lowering humidities,
with potential brief critical fire weather conditions late this
afternoon and evening. For interior areas not under a Red Flag
Warning, elevated fire danger will continue through tonight.
For the Sage Fire region in the Santa Clarita Valley, gusty
southwest to west winds will continue through early evening. Winds
will shift to the northwest to north later this evening into the
overnight hours, especially across the ridgetops where gusts up to
30 mph can be expected.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zones
39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday For zones
53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday For zones
252>254. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For
zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zones
670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall
FIRE...Gomberg
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1041 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A quiet weather pattern is forecast to persist
through the week with temperatures warming back to near seasonal
averages by midweek. Cooling is then forecast for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 9:00 PM PDT Sunday...Winds are diminishing
now, though still locally strong windiest portions of the coast.
Northwest winds have been continuing to gust to near 45 mph both on
top of the bluff out at Pt Reyes at the Pt Sur Lightstation on the
Big Sur coast. The mixing from these winds, in conjunction with a
significantly drier air mass moving in aloft, have resulted in
clear skies this evening, not only across all of our land areas
but all of our marine waters as well. Current fog product
satellite imagery shows the nearest patches of stratus are
presently about 175 miles west of the San Mateo County coast.
Based on new 00Z NAM boundary layer RH output and 02Z HRRR 0-0.5
km mixed layer RH, do expect stratus to fill back in over the
coastal waters at least south of around the Golden Gate -- but
with much more limited redevelopment either farther north along
the coast or into San Francisco Bay. In this regard have also
noted that the KACV to KSFO SLP gradient is now up at 6.7 mb as
surface high pressure builds inland through Oregon and far
northern California.
Have therefore made some minor updates to the forecast package to
diminish low cloud and patchy fog coverage overnight into Monday
morning. Otherwise present forecasts look good.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A gradual warming trend is forecast through
midweek as an upper ridge currently centered over the southern
Great Plains expands to the west and north. Inland temperatures
will warm back to near normal by Tuesday and some inland valleys
are forecast to warm a bit above normal by Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the marine layer will become better established over the next few
days as the low levels become more stable and onshore flow
persists. So, expect more widespread night and morning coastal low
clouds and fog by Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in coastal areas.
Increased marine layer clouds will mean coastal areas will see
little, if any, warming as we move towards midweek.
The longer range models agree that the upper ridge will weaken
late in the work week and into next weekend as a trough drops
into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring about modest cooling
beginning on Friday or by Saturday at the latest.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 10:30 PM PDT Sunday...Surface high pressure
ridge is building into the Pacific Northwest coast. This is
increasing the n-s gradient which is a sign of drier air over the
area. As a result VFR is expected in the SFO Bay Area overnight.
Some clouds willl form along the coast from the San Mateo coast
south which could get into MRY and SNS by morning.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Westerly winds 20-25 kt through 04z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR 13Z-17Z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 8:28 PM PDT Sunday...Surface high pressure off
the California coast extends into the Pacific Northwest coast.
This will maintain gusty northwest winds through Monday night.
Thermal low pressure will build over Southern California by
midweek resulting in lighter winds over the coastal waters.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Blier/Dykema
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
448 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and
crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Heights will rise as ridging builds in at all levels of the
atmosphere today. Have variable cloudy skies across the area
early this morning as still have lingering cyclonic flow in wake
of departing stacked low. In some areas where the clouds have
broken up some fog and stratus has formed. Any fog and stratus
will burn off quickly this morning.
Will have a light northerly flow across the area with seasonable
temperatures expected along with comfortable dew points mainly in
the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Plenty of low level stratus clouds (mainly in MVFR range) in place
at most of the terminals overnight. With a cyclonic N-NW flow
persisting, these clouds should remain in place through the early
morning hours. KPOU was on the edge of the thicker clouds as of
0530Z, but should see an increase in cloud cover over the next few
hours. Will only mention some possible brief vsby reduction to MVFR,
but clouds should generally preclude any substantial fog formation.
Low stratus clouds will gradually dissipate this morning, with VFR
conditions expected to return by mid to late morning across the
terminals. Only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will be around this
afternoon with high pressure building in. Clear skies forecast for
tonight, which could lead to some radiation fog in some spots
towards early Tuesday morning.
Winds will be light and variable, becoming N-Nw around 5 kt later
this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today and moves
offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. A slow moving cold front
will approach from Wednesday night into Thursday, then pass east
on Friday. Another frontal system may pass through on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few isolated light showers cannot be ruled out across eastern
Long Island early this morning.
Otherwise, High pressure settles over the region today shortwave
trough off the New England coast lifts into the Canadian
Maritimes. Ridging aloft builds as heights rise. Lingering low
level moisture across far southeastern Connecticut and eastern
Long Island will likely be slow to erode this morning with mostly
cloudy skies forecast into the early afternoon before some
clearing takes place. The rest of the area will see partly cloudy
skies through the day. With weak flow, afternoon sea breezes will
develop near the coast and slowly push inland. Sea breezes may
struggle to make it into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Coolest conditions near the immediate coast and across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut where more cloud cover will
reside.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tonight as
the surface high and building ridging aloft dominate.
The high will move offshore on Tuesday, but the ridge axis will
still be located to the west of the region. Warmer air begins to
move around the offshore high with 850 HPA temperatures increasing
2C to 4C from Monday. However, increasing southerly flow off the
Atlantic around the offshore high will likely allow temperatures to
only warm to near normal levels for this time of year. Highs in the
middle 80s are forecast away from the coast, with readings closer to
80 near the coast due to the onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast Tue night. Models show some moisture return on the back side
of the sfc high, perhaps a weak shortwave trough moving through the
mean upper ridge which will also be passing to the east at that
time. GFS likely too aggressive with moisture return and lift, and
sided toward drier ECMWF/NAM ideas, with only isolated PoP from NYC
west late day Wed into Wed night.
A broad upper trough will then become established from the northern
Plains to the Northeast later this week. A surface cold front will
still be well to the NW on Thu, but expect scattered showers/tstms
to develop inland Thu afternoon invof a pre-frontal trough as a mid
level shortwave approaches, drifting toward the coast late day and
at night. With very warm/moist low levels, S low level flow and NW
flow aloft, would expect some potential for severe wx, but coverage
could ultimately be limited by a mid level capping inversion if the
00Z GFs is correct.
The cold front will slowly approach on Friday, with only slight
chance PoP at most as deeper moisture will be shunted to the east.
Fri could be the hottest day of the week, with lower/mid 90s except
at south facing coastlines, and potential for the heat index to
touch 100 in urban NE NJ. This front should move east by evening,
then latest model/ensemble guidance indicates potential for another
frontal system to quickly follow for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals today as low pressure
south of Nova Scotia moves northeast.
VFR through the forecast period with the exception of KGON where IFR
ceilings remain overnight, lifting to MVFR around 11Z, then VFR by
15Z. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly conditions improve
at KGON and may be quicker as dryer air moves in.
Winds will be NW-N under 10 KT into this afternoon. Sea breezes are
expected to develop this afternoon, 17Z to 19Z along the immediate
coasts and as late as 22Z inland.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KLGA TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KEWR TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: there is a low chance of brief MVFR ceilings
around 2000 ft 10Z to 12Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Monday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday-Friday...Scattered to isolated showers/tstms possible
with local MVFR conds.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters through the middle of the
week with a cold front approaching late in the week.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
middle of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday, possibly also on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/DS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today and moves
offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. A slow moving cold front
will approach from Wednesday night into Thursday, then pass east
on Friday. Another frontal system may pass through on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few isolated light showers cannot be ruled out across eastern
Long Island early this morning.
Otherwise, High pressure settles over the region today shortwave
trough off the New England coast lifts into the Canadian
Maritimes. Ridging aloft builds as heights rise. Lingering low
level moisture across far southeastern Connecticut and eastern
Long Island will likely be slow to erode this morning with mostly
cloudy skies forecast into the early afternoon before some
clearing takes place. The rest of the area will see partly cloudy
skies through the day. With weak flow, afternoon sea breezes will
develop near the coast and slowly push inland. Sea breezes may
struggle to make it into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Coolest conditions near the immediate coast and across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut where more cloud cover will
reside.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tonight as
the surface high and building ridging aloft dominate.
The high will move offshore on Tuesday, but the ridge axis will
still be located to the west of the region. Warmer air begins to
move around the offshore high with 850 HPA temperatures increasing
2C to 4C from Monday. However, increasing southerly flow off the
Atlantic around the offshore high will likely allow temperatures to
only warm to near normal levels for this time of year. Highs in the
middle 80s are forecast away from the coast, with readings closer to
80 near the coast due to the onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast Tue night. Models show some moisture return on the back side
of the sfc high, perhaps a weak shortwave trough moving through the
mean upper ridge which will also be passing to the east at that
time. GFS likely too aggressive with moisture return and lift, and
sided toward drier ECMWF/NAM ideas, with only isolated PoP from NYC
west late day Wed into Wed night.
A broad upper trough will then become established from the northern
Plains to the Northeast later this week. A surface cold front will
still be well to the NW on Thu, but expect scattered showers/tstms
to develop inland Thu afternoon invof a pre-frontal trough as a mid
level shortwave approaches, drifting toward the coast late day and
at night. With very warm/moist low levels, S low level flow and NW
flow aloft, would expect some potential for severe wx, but coverage
could ultimately be limited by a mid level capping inversion if the
00Z GFs is correct.
The cold front will slowly approach on Friday, with only slight
chance PoP at most as deeper moisture will be shunted to the east.
Fri could be the hottest day of the week, with lower/mid 90s except
at south facing coastlines, and potential for the heat index to
touch 100 in urban NE NJ. This front should move east by evening,
then latest model/ensemble guidance indicates potential for another
frontal system to quickly follow for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals today as low pressure
south of Nova Scotia moves northeast.
VFR through the forecast period with the exception of KGON where IFR
ceilings remain overnight, lifting to MVFR around 11Z, then VFR by
15Z. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly conditions improve
at KGON and may be quicker as dryer air moves in.
Winds will be NW-N under 10 KT into this afternoon. Sea breezes are
expected to develop this afternoon, 17Z to 19Z along the immediate
coasts and as late as 22Z inland.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KLGA TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KEWR TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: no unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: there is a low chance of brief MVFR ceilings
around 2000 ft 10Z to 12Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Monday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday-Friday...Scattered to isolated showers/tstms possible
with local MVFR conds.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters through the middle of the
week with a cold front approaching late in the week.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
middle of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday, possibly also on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/DS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today and moves
offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. A slow moving cold front
will approach from Wednesday night into Thursday, then pass east
on Friday. Another frontal system may pass through on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few isolated light showers cannot be ruled out across eastern
Long Island early this morning.
Otherwise, High pressure settles over the region today shortwave
trough off the New England coast lifts into the Canadian
Maritimes. Ridging aloft builds as heights rise. Lingering low
level moisture across far southeastern Connecticut and eastern
Long Island will likely be slow to erode this morning with mostly
cloudy skies forecast into the early afternoon before some
clearing takes place. The rest of the area will see partly cloudy
skies through the day. With weak flow, afternoon sea breezes will
develop near the coast and slowly push inland. Sea breezes may
struggle to make it into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Coolest conditions near the immediate coast and across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut where more cloud cover will
reside.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tonight as
the surface high and building ridging aloft dominate.
The high will move offshore on Tuesday, but the ridge axis will
still be located to the west of the region. Warmer air begins to
move around the offshore high with 850 HPA temperatures increasing
2C to 4C from Monday. However, increasing southerly flow off the
Atlantic around the offshore high will likely allow temperatures to
only warm to near normal levels for this time of year. Highs in the
middle 80s are forecast away from the coast, with readings closer to
80 near the coast due to the onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast Tue night. Models show some moisture return on the back side
of the sfc high, perhaps a weak shortwave trough moving through the
mean upper ridge which will also be passing to the east at that
time. GFS likely too aggressive with moisture return and lift, and
sided toward drier ECMWF/NAM ideas, with only isolated PoP from NYC
west late day Wed into Wed night.
A broad upper trough will then become established from the northern
Plains to the Northeast later this week. A surface cold front will
still be well to the NW on Thu, but expect scattered showers/tstms
to develop inland Thu afternoon invof a pre-frontal trough as a mid
level shortwave approaches, drifting toward the coast late day and
at night. With very warm/moist low levels, S low level flow and NW
flow aloft, would expect some potential for severe wx, but coverage
could ultimately be limited by a mid level capping inversion if the
00Z GFs is correct.
The cold front will slowly approach on Friday, with only slight
chance PoP at most as deeper moisture will be shunted to the east.
Fri could be the hottest day of the week, with lower/mid 90s except
at south facing coastlines, and potential for the heat index to
touch 100 in urban NE NJ. This front should move east by evening,
then latest model/ensemble guidance indicates potential for another
frontal system to quickly follow for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals today as low pressure
south of Nova Scotia moves northeast.
VFR through the forecast period with the exception of KGON where IFR
ceilings remain overnight, lifting to MVFR around 11Z, then VFR by
15Z. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly conditions improve
at KGON and may be quicker as dryer air moves in.
Winds will be NW-N under 10 KT into this afternoon. Sea breezes are
expected to develop this afternoon, 17Z to 19Z along the immediate
coasts and as late as 22Z inland.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Monday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday-Friday...Scattered showers/tstms possible with local
MVFR conds.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters through the middle of the
week with a cold front approaching late in the week.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
middle of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday, possibly also on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/DS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
404 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England today, resulting in
clearing skies and more seasonable temperatures. Heat and humidity
will increase this week as the high becomes centered offshore and
brings a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
300 AM Update...
Last of showers were over coastal waters SE of Nantucket and were
heading farther offshore. Wide range in conditions across region with
partial clearing working into lower CT Valley and outer Cape Cod
while clouds remain socked in elsewhere, and it`s foggy across
central MA, NE CT, and parts of E MA where rain fell last evening.
Weak surface low was passing well south of New England which has
maintained light N flow. There is a lot of low level moisture
trapped beneath subsidence inversion, so clouds/patchy fog will
hang around through daybreak, before clearing begins during
morning.
Some of the higher-res models (most notably HRRR, RAP, and NAM)
show some light precipitation early this morning, primarily in E
MA. This appears to be spotty drizzle due to deeper marine layer.
Since cloud heights are not all that low in this area right now,
will probably leave mention out of forecast.
Question for today is how fast does clearing occur? RAP forecast
soundings show reasonable trend, with much of interior breaking
out 12z-14z and coastal areas a bit later, more like 14z-18z. This
looks like one of those situations where low clouds erode on
edges, as opposed to clearing taking place from W to E, so it`s
possible some areas away from coast (E of CT River) take longer
than expected to clear out.
Gradient remains weak today so expect coastal sea breezes to
develop later this morning and early this afternoon.
Forecast highs in 70s look reasonable based upon model 2-meter
temperatures. Should get to around 80 in the CT and Merrimack
Valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over southern New England tonight. Light
winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass will help lows fall back
into the 50s inland (where we may see some patchy valley fog) and
to the lower 60s near coast.
As the high becomes centered offshore Tuesday, we get into return
SW flow which will begin to bring warmer (and eventually more
humid) air into region. Highs will top out well into 80s (except
70s near South Coast) if not around 90 in parts of CT and
Merrimack Valleys.
Some of the models (00z GFS and 21z SREF in particular) try to
bring showers/storms into southern New England Tue afternoon, as
moisture is drawn up from the mid Atlantic states and interacts
with a weak surface trough. We are not buying into this wetter
solution given axis of 500 mb ridge to our W with larger scale
subsidence present over region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Becoming hot and humid late in the week.
* Scattered thunderstorms will likely affect the region late Thu and
Fri.
* Low confidence forecast for the weekend. May have more showers on
Sat.
OVERALL PICTURE...
Upper flow across North America becomes more zonal for a time this
coming week. Fairly high confidence of hot temperatures and
increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. Have
a risk of approaching Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday if
dewpoints reach at least 70. Shortwave trof rotating about Hudson
Bay vortex and associated surface front approaches southern New
England Thursday night. The timing of this feature will be critical
as to threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Model consensus
would seem to suggest that the front may pass through southern New
England Friday morning or early afternoon, not diurnally optimal for
convection. Confidence is relatively low for the weekend. May not be
as dry as originally thought since flow aloft remains cyclonic and
from the WSW or SW. Also, both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational
runs suggest a frontal wave on Saturday.
DETAILS...
Wed...Temperatures will likely reach mid 80s to lower 90s. Cannot
rule out isolated thunderstorm over the western higher terrain
areas but expect that most, if not all, of region remains dry.
Thu...Operational models have ensemble support for a hot/humid day.
H850 temperatures will likely rise to at least around 18C and will
likely see all but the south coast and highest terrain areas reach
90 to 95. Sufficient instability may exist for scattered pulse late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the western zones. As the surface
front or prefrontal trough approaches, convection may persist into
the night for a time across the western zones.
Fri...Upper short wave trof and associated surface front crosses the
region. Timing is critical with regard to convective potential.
Model consensus for now would seem to have the frontal boundary
making it to the coast by midday or early afternoon, too soon to tap
into diurnal heating. However, Friday is still 5 days away and so
cannot be all that confident on timing details. There looks to be
sufficient bulk shear to support organized storms if the instability
is sufficient. Expect max temperatures to be a few degrees lower
than Thursday due to increased cloudiness. Nevertheless, many
locations are expected to reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70.
Next weekend...Confidence is relatively low at this time regarding
next Saturday and Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs
depict the broad upper trof axis to be west of the area and even
hint at a frontal wave passing through or just SE of the area on
Saturday. Have raised POPs and sky cover some for Saturday as a
consequence. Also, lowered temperatures along the coastal plain a
tad as well due to potential for more clouds and possibly onshore
flow. If a surface wave forms more as per the GFS, then temperatures
would likely be cooler and rainfall steadier. On the other hand, the
ECMWF might keep some of southern New England in the warm sector and
more convectively active. It is just too soon to be able to nail
down specifics this far out. Have opted for POPs below chance for
Sunday as looks for now that drier air should infiltrate the region
from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update...
Today...Moderate confidence.
MVFR ceilings expected to dominate through daybreak, with IFR or
even LIFR central MA into NE CT, NW RI, and parts of interior E MA
due to fog. Although conditions will improve to VFR from 13z to
18z, confidence is not high in timing. Expect low clouds to burn
off rather than clear from W to E, so we may see areas of
lingering MVFR ceilings, especially near south and east coasts.
Light N/NE winds will give way to coastal sea breezes around
midday or early this afternoon.
Tonight and Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR, but local MVFR/IFR possible in valley fog. Light winds
tonight will give way to S/SW winds Tue.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Not sure ceilings will lower to
IFR (BKN008) early this morning but if it does occur would be
08z-11z. Light N/NE flow gives way to weak sea breeze around 16z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Ceilings probably don`t go lower
than MVFR early this morning but could go IFR (BKN006) 08z-11z.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Tuesday night through Thursday morning...Generally VFR except areas
of MVFR/IFR in fog along the south coast.
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Generally VFR but areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys in vicinity of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New
England today. Light N/NE flow gives way to local sea breezes
later this morning and early this afternoon. SW flow gets underway
Tue as high becomes centered offshore.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Relatively light wind fields are expected and seas should
generally remain below 5 feet across all waters. There will be
areas of late night and early morning fog, especially along the
south coastal waters during this time period.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/Thompson
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...JWD/Thompson
MARINE...JWD/Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and
crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM...Low stratus has eroded rather quickly and being
replaced by CU/SC with a canopy of higher CI/CS advecting across
the entire region. While this may have slowed down the diurnal
temperature climb a bit, expectations are for a partly-mostly
sunny day with terrain based cumulus clouds. Per the 12Z sounding,
rather stable exists up to H700 and per mixing layer heights,
forecast highs look good with no changes needed at this time.
Prev Disc...
Heights will rise as ridging builds in at all levels of the
atmosphere today. Have variable cloudy skies across the area
as higher level clouds stream in from northwest and have some
lingering stratus from overnight. Will have partly to mostly
sunny skies today. Light northerly flow across the area with
seasonable temperatures expected along with comfortable dew
points mainly in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals today into tonight.
Only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will be around this afternoon
with high pressure building in.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will likely lead to some
radiation fog at KGFL/KPSF after 06Z Tuesday. Occasional IFR
conditions look probable. Potential fog development more uncertain
at KALB/KPOU, so will leave out mention for now.
Winds will be light and variable, becoming N-NW around 5 kt later
this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and
crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM...Low stratus has eroded rather quickly and being
replaced by CU/SC with a canopy of higher CI/CS advecting across
the entire region. While this may have slowed down the diurnal
temperature climb a bit, expectations are for a partly-mostly
sunny day with terrain based cumulus clouds. Per the 12Z sounding,
rather stable exists up to H700 and per mixing layer heights,
forecast highs look good with no changes needed at this time.
Prev Disc...
Heights will rise as ridging builds in at all levels of the
atmosphere today. Have variable cloudy skies across the area
as higher level clouds stream in from northwest and have some
lingering stratus from overnight. Will have partly to mostly
sunny skies today. Light northerly flow across the area with
seasonable temperatures expected along with comfortable dew
points mainly in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals today into tonight.
Only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will be around this afternoon
with high pressure building in.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will likely lead to some
radiation fog at KGFL/KPSF after 06Z Tuesday. Occasional IFR
conditions look probable. Potential fog development more uncertain
at KALB/KPOU, so will leave out mention for now.
Winds will be light and variable, becoming N-NW around 5 kt later
this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1009 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England today, resulting in
clearing skies and more seasonable temperatures. Heat and humidity
will increase this week as the high becomes centered offshore and
brings a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM Update...
Sufficient trapped low level moisture remained over southern New
England this morning for clouds to develop and linger. Still
expect this low level moisture to scour out over the course of
the day, but clearing across the area will likely take several
more hours. Radar showing spotty light returns across eastern MA
and RI, and as far west as the Worcester hills. Have added patchy
light drizzle to the forecast thru midday as well.
Forecast highs look on track, but we will need the anticipated
decrease in clouds over the next few hours in order to achieve
those highs. So at this time not adjusting forecast highs, but
will need to monitor.
300 AM Update...
Last of showers were over coastal waters SE of Nantucket and were
heading farther offshore. Wide range in conditions across region with
partial clearing working into lower CT Valley and outer Cape Cod
while clouds remain socked in elsewhere, and it`s foggy across
central MA, NE CT, and parts of E MA where rain fell last evening.
Weak surface low was passing well south of New England which has
maintained light N flow. There is a lot of low level moisture
trapped beneath subsidence inversion, so clouds/patchy fog will
hang around through daybreak, before clearing begins during
morning.
Some of the higher-res models (most notably HRRR, RAP, and NAM)
show some light precipitation early this morning, primarily in E
MA. This appears to be spotty drizzle due to deeper marine layer.
Since cloud heights are not all that low in this area right now,
will probably leave mention out of forecast.
Question for today is how fast does clearing occur? RAP forecast
soundings show reasonable trend, with much of interior breaking
out 12z-14z and coastal areas a bit later, more like 14z-18z. This
looks like one of those situations where low clouds erode on
edges, as opposed to clearing taking place from W to E, so it`s
possible some areas away from coast (E of CT River) take longer
than expected to clear out.
Gradient remains weak today so expect coastal sea breezes to
develop later this morning and early this afternoon.
Forecast highs in 70s look reasonable based upon model 2-meter
temperatures. Should get to around 80 in the CT and Merrimack
Valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over southern New England tonight. Light
winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass will help lows fall back
into the 50s inland (where we may see some patchy valley fog) and
to the lower 60s near coast.
As the high becomes centered offshore Tuesday, we get into return
SW flow which will begin to bring warmer (and eventually more
humid) air into region. Highs will top out well into 80s (except
70s near South Coast) if not around 90 in parts of CT and
Merrimack Valleys.
Some of the models (00z GFS and 21z SREF in particular) try to
bring showers/storms into southern New England Tue afternoon, as
moisture is drawn up from the mid Atlantic states and interacts
with a weak surface trough. We are not buying into this wetter
solution given axis of 500 mb ridge to our W with larger scale
subsidence present over region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Becoming hot and humid late in the week.
* Scattered thunderstorms will likely affect the region late Thu and
Fri.
* Low confidence forecast for the weekend. May have more showers on
Sat.
OVERALL PICTURE...
Upper flow across North America becomes more zonal for a time this
coming week. Fairly high confidence of hot temperatures and
increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. Have
a risk of approaching Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday if
dewpoints reach at least 70. Shortwave trof rotating about Hudson
Bay vortex and associated surface front approaches southern New
England Thursday night. The timing of this feature will be critical
as to threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Model consensus
would seem to suggest that the front may pass through southern New
England Friday morning or early afternoon, not diurnally optimal for
convection. Confidence is relatively low for the weekend. May not be
as dry as originally thought since flow aloft remains cyclonic and
from the WSW or SW. Also, both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational
runs suggest a frontal wave on Saturday.
DETAILS...
Wed...Temperatures will likely reach mid 80s to lower 90s. Cannot
rule out isolated thunderstorm over the western higher terrain
areas but expect that most, if not all, of region remains dry.
Thu...Operational models have ensemble support for a hot/humid day.
H850 temperatures will likely rise to at least around 18C and will
likely see all but the south coast and highest terrain areas reach
90 to 95. Sufficient instability may exist for scattered pulse late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the western zones. As the surface
front or prefrontal trough approaches, convection may persist into
the night for a time across the western zones.
Fri...Upper short wave trof and associated surface front crosses the
region. Timing is critical with regard to convective potential.
Model consensus for now would seem to have the frontal boundary
making it to the coast by midday or early afternoon, too soon to tap
into diurnal heating. However, Friday is still 5 days away and so
cannot be all that confident on timing details. There looks to be
sufficient bulk shear to support organized storms if the instability
is sufficient. Expect max temperatures to be a few degrees lower
than Thursday due to increased cloudiness. Nevertheless, many
locations are expected to reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70.
Next weekend...Confidence is relatively low at this time regarding
next Saturday and Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs
depict the broad upper trof axis to be west of the area and even
hint at a frontal wave passing through or just SE of the area on
Saturday. Have raised POPs and sky cover some for Saturday as a
consequence. Also, lowered temperatures along the coastal plain a
tad as well due to potential for more clouds and possibly onshore
flow. If a surface wave forms more as per the GFS, then temperatures
would likely be cooler and rainfall steadier. On the other hand, the
ECMWF might keep some of southern New England in the warm sector and
more convectively active. It is just too soon to be able to nail
down specifics this far out. Have opted for POPs below chance for
Sunday as looks for now that drier air should infiltrate the region
from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update...
Today...Moderate confidence.
14Z update...
Areas of MVFR ceilings should persist until 15Z-18Z, especially
across RI and eastern MA. Otherwise, becoming VFR as ceilings lift
and clouds decrease in coverage.
N/NE winds will be quite light and so should give way to coastal
sea breezes around midday or early this afternoon.
Tonight and Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR, but local MVFR/IFR possible in valley fog. Light winds
tonight will give way to S/SW winds Tue.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings persist until
15-16Z, then VFR expected. Light N/NE flow gives way to weak sea
breeze around 16z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Ceilings may briefly go to MVFR
during late this morning, otherwise VFR conditions forecast.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Tuesday night through Thursday morning...Generally VFR except areas
of MVFR/IFR in fog along the south coast.
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Generally VFR but areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys in vicinity of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New
England today. Light N/NE flow gives way to local sea breezes
later this morning and early this afternoon. SW flow gets underway
Tue as high becomes centered offshore.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Relatively light wind fields are expected and seas should
generally remain below 5 feet across all waters. There will be
areas of late night and early morning fog, especially along the
south coastal waters during this time period.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/Thompson
NEAR TERM...NMB/JWD/Thompson
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...NMB/JWD/Thompson
MARINE...JWD/Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
656 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England tonight, and will then
become centered southeast of New England during Tuesday. Heat and
humidity will increase this week with the high remaining centered
offshore, bringing a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds across the Eastern USA, including New England.
A light flow region is in place, with most of the strongest winds
found in sea breezes, which will shortly diminish. Satellite shows
high-level cirrus across the region but settling southeast with
clearing expected before midnight.
Continue to expect mostly clear skies and light winds. This will
encourage radiational cooling overnight which will allow temps to
fall to near the dew point. Observed evening dew points are in the
50s with a few low 60s. Expect min temps in the mid 50s to low
60s. This will allow fog to form, especially in the usual fog-
favored locations inland. There continues to be a low chance of
some fog/low clouds along the southern coast of RI and MA as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
The surface high becomes centered offshore during the
day, while upper level ridge builds towards our area from the west.
Southern New England gets into return low level SW flow which will
begin to bring warmer and eventually more humid air into region.
Mostly sunny skies expected, mainly from diurnal cumulus but could
see a few higher deck clouds as well. Temperatures rise well into
the 80s across much of the area. Exception will be along south
coastal MA/RI, where highs in the 70s to near 80 are expected.
Expecting an eventual sea breeze development along east coastal MA,
but may take into midday/early afternoon to get going and overcome
SW flow.
Tuesday night...
Surface high pressure centered offshore and light
SW return flow continues. Upper ridge axis extends over New England.
This will be a slightly warmer and more humid night, with lows in
the 60s. Could see some patchy valley fog once more, otherwise
mostly clear skies expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...
Longwave pattern shows steady heights through the week followed by
building heights off the Atlantic Sunday and Monday. Shortwave scale
shows an upper ridge with axis over New England Wednesday, shifting
southeast Thursday and Friday. Shortwave over the Upper Midwest
Wednesday moves into Eastern Canada and sweeps a weak shortwave
across New England Friday night. Subtropical high over the Atlantic
builds Sunday and Monday while another shortwave approaches from the
west on Monday.
General model agreement Wednesday to Friday, but uncertainty for
Saturday and Sunday. Both show the Friday night cold front stalling
to our south. Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF show dry weather Saturday
followed by a wave moving up the front spreading showers into our
area Sunday. Earlier runs showed that wave moving past with wet
weather Saturday followed by dry weather Sunday. All show high
pressure and dry weather Monday. Low confidence as to which will be
right for the weekend. We have chosen to compromise between the
two camps for now and allow the next couple of runs provide
clearer information.
Details...
Wednesday through Friday...
High pressure offshore with a developing southwest flow over the
region. This will bring in increasing dew points through the period.
Temperatures aloft also increase with 850-equivilent temps 16-17C
Wednesday increasing to 18-20C Thursday and Friday. Airmass also
becomes increasingly unstable each day with LIs near zero in the CT
Valley Wednesday but with limited cloud moisture, then sub-zero LIs
across much of the area Thursday and at least part of Friday. Based
on this, expect hot temps during this period with max temps either
side of 90 Wednesday, and 90-95 Thursday and Friday. Dew points
climb to around 70 by Friday morning so humidity levels will be at
least noticeable and eventually oppressive. There is a small chance
of a thunderstorm in far western MA Wednesday. Thunderstorms more
likely Thursday afternoon through Friday.
One concern...the GFS and EC both rush precipitation through on
Friday morning, while maintaining southwest winds most areas until
Friday evening. Perhaps this is focussing showers on a pre-frontal
trough and keeping the main front dry. Temps aloft stay warm through
the afternoon supporting the idea of a later cold fropa. We massaged
the available grid data to keep chance pops into mid afternoon.
Specific timing of convection is probably questionable this far out,
with the important idea being that there will be precipitation
during some part of Friday.
Saturday-Sunday-Monday...
Much uncertainty in the forecast and forecast data at this time. As
noted above, the 12z GFS and EC show a low pressure wave passing us
on Sunday with showers while much of the forecast grid data shows
showers on Saturday and dry on Sunday. Previous model suites also
went with wet weather on Saturday. We have hand-edited our database
to show chance pops both days. Expect later model runs will resolve
this timing to one day or the other. High pressure brings drier
seasonable weather on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR with mostly clear skies. Local MVFR/IFR possible overnight in
valley fog, as well as a possibility for patchy stratus/fog
overnight along south coastal MA/southern RI.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR, with local MVFR possible Tuesday night in valley fog.
Prevailing S/SW winds Tue except sea breeze development expected
along the shorelines.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR with light wind. Sea breeze
should redevelop during Tuesday around midday.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Friday... Moderate Confidence.
VFR. Areas if late night/early morning IFR in fog. Scatterd
MVFR/IFRin afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Thursday andFriday. Winds becoming southwest much of the period.
Saturday... Low confidence.
VFR. Low confidence potential for MVFR/IFR developing in showers and
scattered thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New England
through tonight, and becomes centered offshore during Tuesday. Light
and variable wind becomes prevailing SW later tonight and Tuesday,
except for local sea breezes redeveloping on Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Moderate confidence.
Winds below 25 knots through the period. Seas mainly below 5 feet,
although there is potential for brief 5 foot seas on the outer
waters Thursday night and Friday. Winds becoming southwest for most
of the period. Areas of poor visibility in overnight and morning
fog. Scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Thursday and Friday.
Low confidence on showers for Saturday.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM EDT...Patchy high clouds continue to stream across
portions of the region, especially from around I-90 southward.
This may be at least in part in association with a jet max
retreating off the New England coast, with our area within its
right entrance region. This jet max is expected to translate
farther off the coast this evening, and should allow its influence
and associated high clouds to decrease.
So, partly cloudy this evening, then becoming mostly clear
overnight. Some patchy fog will likely develop in river valleys,
given that mixing was not very strong/deep this afternoon, and
afternoon dewpoints held in the 50s.
It will be cool once again tonight, with low temperatures before
daybreak falling into the 50s for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday-Tuesday night, a weakening upper level shortwave will
approach from the Great Lakes, and then move southeast, grazing
southern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening. Weak dynamics and some
developing mid level warm advection should promote a period of mid
level clouds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but it appears that the
low levels should remain fairly dry. Therefore, other than clouds,
will keep out mention of any showers, although can not completely
rule out a sprinkle or two reaching the ground in some areas of
the SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region late Tuesday
afternoon/early Tuesday night. Otherwise, it will be warmer
Tuesday, with late day high temperatures reaching the mid/upper
80s in valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. For Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, low temperatures
should only fall into the mid/upper 60s in valley areas, and
generally upper 50s to lower 60s for higher elevations.
Wednesday-Wednesday night, a strengthening low level
south/southwest flow and at least some sunshine in the morning
should allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in
valley areas, with 80s even across higher terrain. The combination
of increasing moisture will contribute to enhanced instability
across western areas. Some models suggest isolated to scattered
convection develops late Wed afternoon into Wed night, mainly
across the western Adirondacks. Will include slight chance mention
of isolated showers/thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon for
areas west of the Hudson River, with some low chance mention
across the western Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills
into early Wednesday night. Dewpoints should climb into the
mid/upper 60s by late Wed afternoon, which should result in heat
indices reaching the mid 90s within the Hudson River Valley. Warm
and humid for Wed night, with some low clouds possibly developing.
Low temperatures should only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s
for most valley areas, and lower/mid 60s across higher elevations.
Thursday, another hot and humid day, although clouds and earlier
and more widespread convective development may preclude
temperatures from exceeding 90. For now, expect most valley areas
to reach 85-90, with lower/mid 80s across higher elevations.
However, if convection holds off until later in the day, and more
sunshine occurs, high temperatures could easily reach into the
lower 90s or slightly higher. Dewpoints should be higher than
Wednesday, reaching into the lower 70s in valleys, and mid/upper
60s. So, even if high temperatures only reach close to 90, heat
indices should still reach the upper 90s within much of the Hudson
River Valley. Should the possibility of even higher heat indices
increase, then heat advisories would be issued for some of these
areas. Scattered, mainly pulse-type thunderstorms are expected
Thursday afternoon, with locally heavy downpours likely as PWAT/s
increase to over 1.5-1.75 inches. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases
late Thursday across northwest areas close to 30 KT, so isolated
severe can not be ruled out, especially with any cells that merge
and develop associated cold pools, possibly resulting in isolated
strong wind gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very active long term period is expected as hazy, hot and humid
weather along with scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in
the forecast for the period from Thursday night through
Saturday.
Thursday night and Friday...A cold front will be dropping slowly
southeast from the eastern Great Lakes with a wave of low pressure
moving northeast along it on Friday morning. The warm moist airmass
in place ahead of this frontal boundary will clash with the cooler
drier air behind it producing more showers and thunderstorms. The
MLMUCAPES on Friday are generally 500 to 1000 j/kg with the theta e
ridge axis not sliding east of the fa until late in the day. PWATS
remain in the 1.5 to 2.0+ range so more heavy rain is possible. At
this time mid level lapse rates are not overly strong generally
between 5.5 and 6 C/km, however 0-6 km bulk shear increase to 50 to
60+ kts across the forecast area Friday afternoon. Lows Thursday
night are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs on
Friday in the upper 70s to lower 90s.
Friday night and Saturday...The upper level low and associated vort
max will be crossing the region producing more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Lows Friday night are expected to be in the upper 50s
to upper 60s with highs on Saturday in the upper 60s to mid 80s.
Saturday night and Sunday at this time look dry as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the eastern Great Lakes. Lows on Saturday
night are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on
Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Overall expect temperatures to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals well into the evening
hours. Chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning.
Satellite imagery reveals few-sct cumulus clouds across the region
with a canopy of thin cirrus streaming across the region. Further
upstream, a thicker canopy of high and mid level clouds (still
VFR) that may impact the region into this evening. Later tonight
is the forecast challenge as dewpoint depressions diminish and
some patchy mist/fog may develop. This would be most susceptible at
climatology favored locations (KGFL and KPSF).
Winds will be light N-NW around 5 kt, becoming light and variable
or calm tonight. Winds shift from the southerly direction at
speeds less than 10 kts on Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region.
Relative humidity values are expected to recover to percent this
afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 90 to near 100
percent tonight, with widespread dew formation likely. Minimum
values Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be generally 35 to 45
percent range.
Light/variable winds are expected overnight, with south winds of
10 mph or less Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region. Precipitable water
values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to near 2 inches, 1-2 standard
deviations above normal, which means storms will be capable of
locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
610 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of Long Island remains in control through
Wednesday. A prefrontal trough then approaches on Thursday and
passes through Thursday night into Friday morning. The trailing
cold front then moves through Friday night. High pressure builds
back in behind the front on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west, and the center
of the high will pass overhead before moving offshore by daybreak
Tuesday.
Skies will clear out tonight. With increasing low level moisture
and light winds, can expect patchy fog to develop across interior
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and Long Island.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to around 70 in/around
NYC to the low to mid 60s for most coastal locations. Interior
portions of the CWA will drop into the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure centered south of Long Island and east of NJ,
return flow develops with increasing S-SW winds. Humidity levels
will increase and surface dewpoints climb into the low 60s
throughout. Temps creep up a bit as well, with highs generally in
the low to mid 80s near the coasts, and in the mid to upper 80s
across NYC and the interior. The heat index may approach 90 in
some of the warmer areas.
Tuesday night will feature clear skies and light winds once
again. Persistent southerly flow will allow dewpoints to continue
to creep up, and patchy fog is possible once again away from NYC.
Lows will generally be in the 60s.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic facing beaches on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging will be centered offshore during Wednesday.
Resulting high pressure should still be strong enough to keep the CWA
dry during the day. Looks like mid level capping could prevent
shower development altogether, but there is still a slight chance
that a shower or thunderstorm develops just off to the west and
drifts into the far NW zones during the afternoon. Went a little
above guidance for high temps as models agree upon an 850mb
temperature of around 16C during the afternoon.
A prefrontal trough approaches on Thursday with supplemental lift
during the afternoon and nighttime as a shortwave approaches
and moves through. Capped pops at chance through the period, but
it would appear that the highest threat of showers and storms
will be in the afternoon and night.
The trough is progged to be right over the CWA during Friday
morning, so will leave in a chance of showers and storms during the
morning, then the boundary shifts east with a drying column during
the afternoon. 850mb temps are forecast to be 18-19C during the
afternoon, and with boundary layer winds with a westerly component,
high temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 90s for parts
of the city and urban NJ areas, and upper 80s to low 90s for just
about elsewhere. Assuming the boundary shifts east as progged,
drier air should mix down with daytime heating outside of any sea
breezes,keeping maximum heat index values below advisory criteria.
A dry cold front passage is expected Friday night with high pressure
keeping Saturday dry. Highs Saturday returning to normal levels
behind the front. A wave of low pressure may then develop along the
front to our south and potentially bring us rainfall at some period
from Saturday night to Sunday night, or even Monday morning. With
uncertainty of the eventual development, track, and timing of this
system, have opted for slight chc pops for most of this period.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Seabreeze finally making steady progress north and should pass
through KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB in the next hour, possibly two hours.
Otherwise, high pressure builds over the terminals through the
overnight. Fair weather cumulus with bases around 4000-5000 ft
will diminish by early this evening
VFR overnight with light winds. Perhaps some MVFR VIS in BR at
rural airports towards sunrise. VFR continues for Tuesday with
southerly flow.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component
FCSTS can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence of seabreeze passage by 00Z.
KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence of seabreeze passage by 00Z.
KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence of seabreeze
passage by 00Z.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tue AFTN-Wed...VFR...though patchy early morning MVFR BR possible
outside the NYC Metro.
.Thu...Scattered to isolated mainly afternoon TS/SHRA with local
MVFR conds.
.Fri...VFR...CHC TS/SHRA in the Morning.
.Sat...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight and settles
south of Long Island over the ocean waters through the mid-week
period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels during this
time as well as for the rest of the forecast period in the absence
of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Tongue/DW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
421 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 410 PM EDT, patchy high clouds continue to stream across
portions of the region, especially from around I-90 southward.
This may be at least in part in association with a jet max
retreating off the New England coast, with our area within its
right entrance region. This jet max is expected to translate
farther off the coast this evening, and should allow its influence
and associated high clouds to decrease.
So, partly cloudy this evening, then becoming mostly clear
overnight. Some patchy fog will likely develop in river valleys,
given that mixing was not very strong/deep this afternoon, and
afternoon dewpoints held in the 50s.
It will be cool once again tonight, with low temperatures before
daybreak falling into the 50s for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday-Tuesday night, a weakening upper level shortwave will
approach from the Great Lakes, and then move southeast, grazing
southern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening. Weak dynamics and some
developing mid level warm advection should promote a period of mid
level clouds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but it appears that the
low levels should remain fairly dry. Therefore, other than clouds,
will keep out mention of any showers, although can not completely
rule out a sprinkle or two reaching the ground in some areas of
the SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region late Tuesday
afternoon/early Tuesday night. Otherwise, it will be warmer
Tuesday, with late day high temperatures reaching the mid/upper
80s in valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. For Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, low temperatures
should only fall into the mid/upper 60s in valley areas, and
generally upper 50s to lower 60s for higher elevations.
Wednesday-Wednesday night, a strengthening low level
south/southwest flow and at least some sunshine in the morning
should allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in
valley areas, with 80s even across higher terrain. The combination
of increasing moisture will contribute to enhanced instability
across western areas. Some models suggest isolated to scattered
convection develops late Wed afternoon into Wed night, mainly
across the western Adirondacks. Will include slight chance mention
of isolated showers/thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon for
areas west of the Hudson River, with some low chance mention
across the western Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills
into early Wednesday night. Dewpoints should climb into the
mid/upper 60s by late Wed afternoon, which should result in heat
indices reaching the mid 90s within the Hudson River Valley. Warm
and humid for Wed night, with some low clouds possibly developing.
Low temperatures should only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s
for most valley areas, and lower/mid 60s across higher elevations.
Thursday, another hot and humid day, although clouds and earlier
and more widespread convective development may preclude
temperatures from exceeding 90. For now, expect most valley areas
to reach 85-90, with lower/mid 80s across higher elevations.
However, if convection holds off until later in the day, and more
sunshine occurs, high temperatures could easily reach into the
lower 90s or slightly higher. Dewpoints should be higher than
Wednesday, reaching into the lower 70s in valleys, and mid/upper
60s. So, even if high temperatures only reach close to 90, heat
indices should still reach the upper 90s within much of the Hudson
River Valley. Should the possibility of even higher heat indices
increase, then heat advisories would be issued for some of these
areas. Scattered, mainly pulse-type thunderstorms are expected
Thursday afternoon, with locally heavy downpours likely as PWAT/s
increase to over 1.5-1.75 inches. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases
late Thursday across northwest areas close to 30 KT, so isolated
severe can not be ruled out, especially with any cells that merge
and develop associated cold pools, possibly resulting in isolated
strong wind gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very active long term period is expected as hazy, hot and humid
weather along with scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in
the forecast for the period from Thursday night through
Saturday.
Thursday night and Friday...A cold front will be dropping slowly
southeast from the eastern Great Lakes with a wave of low pressure
moving northeast along it on Friday morning. The warm moist airmass
in place ahead of this frontal boundary will clash with the cooler
drier air behind it producing more showers and thunderstorms. The
MLMUCAPES on Friday are generally 500 to 1000 j/kg with the theta e
ridge axis not sliding east of the fa until late in the day. PWATS
remain in the 1.5 to 2.0+ range so more heavy rain is possible. At
this time mid level lapse rates are not overly strong generally
between 5.5 and 6 C/km, however 0-6 km bulk shear increase to 50 to
60+ kts across the forecast area Friday afternoon. Lows Thursday
night are expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs on
Friday in the upper 70s to lower 90s.
Friday night and Saturday...The upper level low and associated vort
max will be crossing the region producing more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Lows Friday night are expected to be in the upper 50s
to upper 60s with highs on Saturday in the upper 60s to mid 80s.
Saturday night and Sunday at this time look dry as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the eastern Great Lakes. Lows on Saturday
night are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on
Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Overall expect temperatures to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal as well.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals well into the evening
hours. Chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning.
Satellite imagery reveals few-sct cumulus clouds across the region
with a canopy of thin cirrus streaming across the region. Further
upstream, a thicker canopy of high and mid level clouds (still
VFR) that may impact the region into this evening. Later tonight
is the forecast challenge as dewpoint depressions diminish and
some patchy mist/fog may develop. This would be most susceptible at
climatology favored locations (KGFL and KPSF).
Winds will be light N-NW around 5 kt, becoming light and variable
or calm tonight. Winds shift from the southerly direction at
speeds less than 10 kts on Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region.
Relative humidity values are expected to recover to percent this
afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 90 to near 100
percent tonight, with widespread dew formation likely. Minimum
values Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be generally 35 to 45
percent range.
Light/variable winds are expected overnight, with south winds of
10 mph or less Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will dominate our weather into Wednesday, with
mainly fair weather. Heat and humidity will return for Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s
cold front approaches and crosses the region. Precipitable water
values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to near 2 inches, 1-2 standard
deviations above normal, which means storms will be capable of
locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
403 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England tonight, and will then
become centered southeast of New England during Tuesday. Heat and
humidity will increase this week with the high remaining centered
offshore, bringing a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM Update...
Surface high pressure continues to move across our area this evening
and overnight. Lingering patchy diurnal cumulus dissipate leaving
mostly clear skies with some cirrus. The light to calm winds, mainly
clear skies, and dry airmass will help lows fall back into the mid
and upper 50s inland and to the lower 60s near the coast. There
may be some patchy valley fog inland, and there is a low chance of
some patchy fog/stratus along south coastal MA and southern RI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
The surface high becomes centered offshore during the
day, while upper level ridge builds towards our area from the west.
Southern New England gets into return low level SW flow which will
begin to bring warmer and eventually more humid air into region.
Mostly sunny skies expected, mainly from diurnal cumulus but could
see a few higher deck clouds as well. Temperatures rise well into
the 80s across much of the area. Exception will be along south
coastal MA/RI, where highs in the 70s to near 80 are expected.
Expecting an eventual sea breeze development along east coastal MA,
but may take into midday/early afternoon to get going and overcome
SW flow.
Tuesday night...
Surface high pressure centered offshore and light
SW return flow continues. Upper ridge axis extends over New England.
This will be a slightly warmer and more humid night, with lows in
the 60s. Could see some patchy valley fog once more, otherwise
mostly clear skies expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...
Longwave pattern shows steady heights through the week followed by
building heights off the Atlantic Sunday and Monday. Shortwave scale
shows an upper ridge with axis over New England Wednesday, shifting
southeast Thursday and Friday. Shortwave over the Upper Midwest
Wednesday moves into Eastern Canada and sweeps a weak shortwave
across New England Friday night. Subtropical high over the Atlantic
builds Sunday and Monday while another shortwave approaches from the
west on Monday.
General model agreement Wednesday to Friday, but uncertainty for
Saturday and Sunday. Both show the Friday night cold front stalling
to our south. Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF show dry weather Saturday
followed by a wave moving up the front spreading showers into our
area Sunday. Earlier runs showed that wave moving past with wet
weather Saturday followed by dry weather Sunday. All show high
pressure and dry weather Monday. Low confidence as to which will be
right for the weekend. We have chosen to compromise between the
two camps for now and allow the next couple of runs provide
clearer information.
Details...
Wednesday through Friday...
High pressure offshore with a developing southwest flow over the
region. This will bring in increasing dew points through the period.
Temperatures aloft also increase with 850-equivilent temps 16-17C
Wednesday increasing to 18-20C Thursday and Friday. Airmass also
becomes increasingly unstable each day with LIs near zero in the CT
Valley Wednesday but with limited cloud moisture, then sub-zero LIs
across much of the area Thursday and at least part of Friday. Based
on this, expect hot temps during this period with max temps either
side of 90 Wednesday, and 90-95 Thursday and Friday. Dew points
climb to around 70 by Friday morning so humidity levels will be at
least noticeable and eventually oppressive. There is a small chance
of a thunderstorm in far western MA Wednesday. Thunderstorms more
likely Thursday afternoon through Friday.
One concern...the GFS and EC both rush precipitation through on
Friday morning, while maintaining southwest winds most areas until
Friday evening. Perhaps this is focussing showers on a pre-frontal
trough and keeping the main front dry. Temps aloft stay warm through
the afternoon supporting the idea of a later cold fropa. We massaged
the available grid data to keep chance pops into mid afternoon.
Specific timing of convection is probably questionable this far out,
with the important idea being that there will be precipitation
during some part of Friday.
Saturday-Sunday-Monday...
Much uncertainty in the forecast and forecast data at this time. As
noted above, the 12z GFS and EC show a low pressure wave passing us
on Sunday with showers while much of the forecast grid data shows
showers on Saturday and dry on Sunday. Previous model suites also
went with wet weather on Saturday. We have hand-edited our database
to show chance pops both days. Expect later model runs will resolve
this timing to one day or the other. High pressure brings drier
seasonable weather on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
20Z Update...
This evening...High confidence.
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Overall winds light
and variable across the interior. East coastal MA sea breeze
lingers thru early evening. Potential for a south coastal MA/RI
sea breeze developing briefly late today.
Overnight...High confidence.
VFR, but local MVFR/IFR possible tonight in valley fog, as well
as a possibility for patchy stratus/fog overnight along south
coastal MA/southern RI.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR, with local MVFR possible Tuesday night in valley fog.
Prevailing S/SW winds Tue except sea breeze development expected
along the shorelines.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Weak seabreeze lingers into early
this evening. Sea breeze should redevelop during Tuesday around
midday.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Friday... Moderate Confidence.
VFR. Areas if late night/early morning IFR in fog. Scatterd
MVFR/IFRin afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms, mainly
Thursday andFriday. Winds becoming southwest much of the period.
Saturday... Low confidence.
VFR. Low confidence potential for MVFR/IFR developing in showers and
scattered thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New England
through tonight, and becomes centered offshore during Tuesday. Light
and variable wind becomes prevailing SW later tonight and Tuesday,
except for local sea breezes redeveloping on Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Moderate confidence.
Winds below 25 knots through the period. Seas mainly below 5 feet,
although there is potential for brief 5 foot seas on the outer
waters Thursday night and Friday. Winds becoming southwest for most
of the period. Areas of poor visibility in overnight and morning
fog. Scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Thursday and Friday.
Low confidence on showers for Saturday.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of Long Island remains in control through
Wednesday. A prefrontal trough then approaches on Thursday and
passes through Thursday night into Friday morning. The trailing
cold front then moves through Friday night. High pressure builds
back in behind the front on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west, and the center
of the high will pass overhead before moving offshore by daybreak
Tuesday.
Skies will clear out tonight. With increasing low level moisture
and light winds, can expect patchy fog to develop across interior
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and Long Island.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to around 70 in/around
NYC to the low to mid 60s for most coastal locations. Interior
portions of the CWA will drop into the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure centered south of Long Island and east of NJ,
return flow develops with increasing S-SW winds. Humidity levels
will increase and surface dewpoints climb into the low 60s
throughout. Temps creep up a bit as well, with highs generally in
the low to mid 80s near the coasts, and in the mid to upper 80s
across NYC and the interior. The heat index may approach 90 in
some of the warmer areas.
Tuesday night will feature clear skies and light winds once
again. Persistent southerly flow will allow dewpoints to continue
to creep up, and patchy fog is possible once again away from NYC.
Lows will generally be in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging will be centered offshore during Wednesday.
Resulting high pressure should still be strong enough to keep the CWA
dry during the day. Looks like mid level capping could prevent
shower development altogether, but there is still a slight chance
that a shower or thunderstorm develops just off to the west and
drifts into the far NW zones during the afternoon. Went a little
above guidance for high temps as models agree upon an 850mb
temperature of around 16C during the afternoon.
A prefrontal trough approaches on Thursday with supplemental lift
during the afternoon and nighttime as a shortwave approaches
and moves through. Capped pops at chance through the period, but
it would appear that the highest threat of showers and storms
will be in the afternoon and night.
The trough is progged to be right over the CWA during Friday
morning, so will leave in a chance of showers and storms during the
morning, then the boundary shifts east with a drying column during
the afternoon. 850mb temps are forecast to be 18-19C during the
afternoon, and with boundary layer winds with a westerly component,
high temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 90s for parts
of the city and urban NJ areas, and upper 80s to low 90s for just
about elsewhere. Assuming the boundary shifts east as progged,
drier air should mix down with daytime heating outside of any sea
breezes,keeping maximum heat index values below advisory criteria.
A dry cold front passage is expected Friday night with high pressure
keeping Saturday dry. Highs Saturday returning to normal levels
behind the front. A wave of low pressure may then develop along the
front to our south and potentially bring us rainfall at some period
from Saturday night to Sunday night, or even Monday morning. With
uncertainty of the eventual development, track, and timing of this
system, have opted for slight chc pops for most of this period.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals through the overnight. Fair
weather cumulus with bases around 4500 ft will diminish by late AFTN
(22Z).
Northerly winds will eventually shift around to S late this AFTN
into the evening as sea breezes move inland from the Atlantic and
CT coasts.
VFR overnight with light winds. Perhaps some MVFR VIS in BR at
rural airports towards sunrise. VFR continues for Tuesday with
southern flow.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component
FCSTS can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Sea Breeze has moved south of the airport
causing a wind shift to the northeast. SFC winds eventually become
south...but there is low confidence in the timing of this. It
could be as late as 00Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: No long expect the seabreeze to reach the
field this evening.
KEWR TAF Comments: A lot of variability in direction the rest of
the AFTN. With the Sea Breeze having dissipated...winds should
stay more NE into the evening.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tue AFTN-Wed...VFR...though patchy early morning MVFR BR possible
outside the NYC Metro.
.Thu...Scattered to isolated mainly AFTN TS/SHRA with local MVFR
conds.
.Fri...VFR...CHC TS/SHRA in the Morning.
.Sat...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight and settles
south of Long Island over the ocean waters through the mid-week
period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels during this
time as well as for the rest of the forecast period in the absence
of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Tongue
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
354 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England tonight, and will then
become centered southeast of New England during Tuesday. Heat and
humidity will increase this week with the high remaining centered
offshore, bringing a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM Update...
Surface high pressure continues to move across our area this evening
and overnight. Lingering patchy diurnal cumulus dissipate leaving
mostly clear skies with some cirrus. The light to calm winds, mainly
clear skies, and dry airmass will help lows fall back into the mid
and upper 50s inland and to the lower 60s near the coast. There
may be some patchy valley fog inland, and there is a low chance of
some patchy fog/stratus along south coastal MA and southern RI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
The surface high becomes centered offshore during the
day, while upper level ridge builds towards our area from the west.
Southern New England gets into return low level SW flow which will
begin to bring warmer and eventually more humid air into region.
Mostly sunny skies expected, mainly from diurnal cumulus but could
see a few higher deck clouds as well. Temperatures rise well into
the 80s across much of the area. Exception will be along south
coastal MA/RI, where highs in the 70s to near 80 are expected.
Expecting an eventual sea breeze development along east coastal MA,
but may take into midday/early afternoon to get going and overcome
SW flow.
Tuesday night...
Surface high pressure centered offshore and light
SW return flow continues. Upper ridge axis extends over New England.
This will be a slightly warmer and more humid night, with lows in
the 60s. Could see some patchy valley fog once more, otherwise
mostly clear skies expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Becoming hot and humid late in the week.
* Scattered thunderstorms will likely affect the region late Thu and
Fri.
* Low confidence forecast for the weekend. May have more showers on
Sat.
OVERALL PICTURE...
Upper flow across North America becomes more zonal for a time this
coming week. Fairly high confidence of hot temperatures and
increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. Have
a risk of approaching Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday if
dewpoints reach at least 70. Shortwave trof rotating about Hudson
Bay vortex and associated surface front approaches southern New
England Thursday night. The timing of this feature will be critical
as to threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Model consensus
would seem to suggest that the front may pass through southern New
England Friday morning or early afternoon, not diurnally optimal for
convection. Confidence is relatively low for the weekend. May not be
as dry as originally thought since flow aloft remains cyclonic and
from the WSW or SW. Also, both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational
runs suggest a frontal wave on Saturday.
DETAILS...
Wed...Temperatures will likely reach mid 80s to lower 90s. Cannot
rule out isolated thunderstorm over the western higher terrain
areas but expect that most, if not all, of region remains dry.
Thu...Operational models have ensemble support for a hot/humid day.
H850 temperatures will likely rise to at least around 18C and will
likely see all but the south coast and highest terrain areas reach
90 to 95. Sufficient instability may exist for scattered pulse late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the western zones. As the surface
front or prefrontal trough approaches, convection may persist into
the night for a time across the western zones.
Fri...Upper short wave trof and associated surface front crosses the
region. Timing is critical with regard to convective potential.
Model consensus for now would seem to have the frontal boundary
making it to the coast by midday or early afternoon, too soon to tap
into diurnal heating. However, Friday is still 5 days away and so
cannot be all that confident on timing details. There looks to be
sufficient bulk shear to support organized storms if the instability
is sufficient. Expect max temperatures to be a few degrees lower
than Thursday due to increased cloudiness. Nevertheless, many
locations are expected to reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70.
Next weekend...Confidence is relatively low at this time regarding
next Saturday and Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs
depict the broad upper trof axis to be west of the area and even
hint at a frontal wave passing through or just SE of the area on
Saturday. Have raised POPs and sky cover some for Saturday as a
consequence. Also, lowered temperatures along the coastal plain a
tad as well due to potential for more clouds and possibly onshore
flow. If a surface wave forms more as per the GFS, then temperatures
would likely be cooler and rainfall steadier. On the other hand, the
ECMWF might keep some of southern New England in the warm sector and
more convectively active. It is just too soon to be able to nail
down specifics this far out. Have opted for POPs below chance for
Sunday as looks for now that drier air should infiltrate the region
from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
20Z Update...
This evening...High confidence.
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Overall winds light
and variable across the interior. East coastal MA sea breeze
lingers thru early evening. Potential for a south coastal MA/RI
sea breeze developing briefly late today.
Overnight...High confidence.
VFR, but local MVFR/IFR possible tonight in valley fog, as well
as a possibility for patchy stratus/fog overnight along south
coastal MA/southern RI.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR, with local MVFR possible Tuesday night in valley fog.
Prevailing S/SW winds Tue except sea breeze development expected
along the shorelines.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Weak seabreeze lingers into early
this evening. Sea breeze should redevelop during Tuesday around
midday.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence.
Wednesday through Thursday morning...Generally VFR except areas
of MVFR/IFR in fog along the south coast.
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Generally VFR but areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys in vicinity of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New England
through tonight, and becomes centered offshore during Tuesday. Light
and variable wind becomes prevailing SW later tonight and Tuesday,
except for local sea breezes redeveloping on Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence.
Relatively light wind fields are expected and seas should
generally remain below 5 feet across all waters. There will be
areas of late night and early morning fog, especially along the
south coastal waters during this time period.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NMB/JWD/Thompson
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...NMB/JWD/Thompson
MARINE...NMB/JWD/Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of Long Island remains in control through
Wednesday. A prefrontal trough then approaches on Thursday and
passes through Thursday night into Friday morning. The trailing
cold front then moves through Friday night. High pressure builds
back in behind the front on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west, and the center
of the high will pass overhead before moving offshore by daybreak
Tuesday.
Skies will clear out tonight. With increasing low level moisture
and light winds, can expect patchy fog to develop across interior
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and Long Island.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to around 70 in/around
NYC to the low to mid 60s for most coastal locations. Interior
portions of the CWA will drop into the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure centered south of Long Island and east of NJ,
return flow develops with increasing S-SW winds. Humidity levels
will increase and surface dewpoints climb into the low 60s
throughout. Temps creep up a bit as well, with highs generally in
the low to mid 80s near the coasts, and in the mid to upper 80s
across NYC and the interior. The heat index may approach 90 in
some of the warmer areas.
Tuesday night will feature clear skies and light winds once
again. Persistent southerly flow will allow dewpoints to continue
to creep up, and patchy fog is possible once again away from NYC.
Lows will generally be in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging will be centered offshore during Wednesday.
Resulting high pressure should still be strong enough to keep the CWA
dry during the day. Looks like mid level capping could prevent
shower development altogether, but there is still a slight chance
that a shower or thunderstorm develops just off to the west and
drifts into the far NW zones during the afternoon. Went a little
above guidance for high temps as models agree upon an 850mb
temperature of around 16C during the afternoon.
A prefrontal trough approaches on Thursday with supplemental lift
during the afternoon and nighttime as a shortwave approaches
and moves through. Capped pops at chance through the period, but
it would appear that the highest threat of showers and storms
will be in the afternoon and night.
The trough is progged to be right over the CWA during Friday
morning, so will leave in a chance of showers and storms during the
morning, then the boundary shifts east with a drying column during
the afternoon. 850mb temps are forecast to be 18-19C during the
afternoon, and with boundary layer winds with a westerly component,
high temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 90s for parts
of the city and urban NJ areas, and upper 80s to low 90s for just
about elsewhere. Assuming the boundary shifts east as progged,
drier air should mix down with daytime heating outside of any sea
breezes,keeping maximum heat index values below advisory criteria.
A dry cold front passage is expected Friday night with high pressure
keeping Saturday dry. Highs Saturday returning to normal levels
behind the front. A wave of low pressure may then develop along the
front to our south and potentially bring us rainfall at some period
from Saturday night to Sunday night, or even Monday morning. With
uncertainty of the eventual development, track, and timing of this
system, have opted for slight chc pops for most of this period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals through the overnight. Fair
weather cumulus with bases around 4500 ft will diminish by late AFTN
(22Z).
Northerly winds will shift around to S this AFTN as sea breezes
move inland from the Atlantic and CT coasts.
VFR overnight with light winds. Perhaps some MVFR VIS in BR at
rural airports towards sunrise. VFR continues for Tuesday with
southern flow.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component
FCSTS can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in SFC winds becoming solidly
south as the Sea Breeze works inland.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind shift from Sea Breeze could be as late as
00Z.
KEWR TAF Comments: A lot of variability in direction the rest of
the AFTN. High confidence in speeds of less than 10 KT as
direction settles to SE by 22-23Z.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tue AFTN-Wed...VFR...though patchy early morning MVFR BR possible
outside the NYC Metro.
.Thu...Scattered to isolated mainly AFTN TS/SHRA with local MVFR
conds.
.Fri...VFR...CHC TS/SHRA in the Morning.
.Sat...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight and settles
south of Long Island over the ocean waters through the mid-week
period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels during this
time as well as for the rest of the forecast period in the absence
of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Tongue
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
216 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England today, resulting in
clearing skies and more seasonable temperatures. Heat and humidity
will increase this week as the high becomes centered offshore and
brings a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 PM Update...
Surface high pressure continues to build over our area this
afternoon, and low level moisture has been more steadily eroding.
The lower clouds have been clearing from north to south between
noon and 2 pm, leaving partly sunny skies across northern and
central MA. Mostly cloudy skies remained across northern CT and
southeast MA, due to the parting stratocumulus deck as well as a
cirrus deck passing thru the area. Expect to see a continued
decrease in clouds across southern New England during the
remainder of this afternoon.
Some locales across northern MA and the Connecticut
River Valley in MA/CT will manage to warm into the upper 70s and
low 80s. Elsewhere across the region thinking temps will max out
in the low to mid 70s due to the later thinning of the cloud deck,
and the sea breeze along east coastal MA and developing sea breeze
along the south coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over southern New England tonight. Light
winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass will help lows fall back
into the 50s inland (where we may see some patchy valley fog) and
to the lower 60s near coast.
As the high becomes centered offshore Tuesday, we get into return
SW flow which will begin to bring warmer (and eventually more
humid) air into region. Highs will top out well into 80s (except
70s near South Coast) if not around 90 in parts of CT and
Merrimack Valleys.
Some of the models (00z GFS and 21z SREF in particular) try to
bring showers/storms into southern New England Tue afternoon, as
moisture is drawn up from the mid Atlantic states and interacts
with a weak surface trough. We are not buying into this wetter
solution given axis of 500 mb ridge to our W with larger scale
subsidence present over region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Becoming hot and humid late in the week.
* Scattered thunderstorms will likely affect the region late Thu and
Fri.
* Low confidence forecast for the weekend. May have more showers on
Sat.
OVERALL PICTURE...
Upper flow across North America becomes more zonal for a time this
coming week. Fairly high confidence of hot temperatures and
increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. Have
a risk of approaching Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday if
dewpoints reach at least 70. Shortwave trof rotating about Hudson
Bay vortex and associated surface front approaches southern New
England Thursday night. The timing of this feature will be critical
as to threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Model consensus
would seem to suggest that the front may pass through southern New
England Friday morning or early afternoon, not diurnally optimal for
convection. Confidence is relatively low for the weekend. May not be
as dry as originally thought since flow aloft remains cyclonic and
from the WSW or SW. Also, both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational
runs suggest a frontal wave on Saturday.
DETAILS...
Wed...Temperatures will likely reach mid 80s to lower 90s. Cannot
rule out isolated thunderstorm over the western higher terrain
areas but expect that most, if not all, of region remains dry.
Thu...Operational models have ensemble support for a hot/humid day.
H850 temperatures will likely rise to at least around 18C and will
likely see all but the south coast and highest terrain areas reach
90 to 95. Sufficient instability may exist for scattered pulse late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the western zones. As the surface
front or prefrontal trough approaches, convection may persist into
the night for a time across the western zones.
Fri...Upper short wave trof and associated surface front crosses the
region. Timing is critical with regard to convective potential.
Model consensus for now would seem to have the frontal boundary
making it to the coast by midday or early afternoon, too soon to tap
into diurnal heating. However, Friday is still 5 days away and so
cannot be all that confident on timing details. There looks to be
sufficient bulk shear to support organized storms if the instability
is sufficient. Expect max temperatures to be a few degrees lower
than Thursday due to increased cloudiness. Nevertheless, many
locations are expected to reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70.
Next weekend...Confidence is relatively low at this time regarding
next Saturday and Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs
depict the broad upper trof axis to be west of the area and even
hint at a frontal wave passing through or just SE of the area on
Saturday. Have raised POPs and sky cover some for Saturday as a
consequence. Also, lowered temperatures along the coastal plain a
tad as well due to potential for more clouds and possibly onshore
flow. If a surface wave forms more as per the GFS, then temperatures
would likely be cooler and rainfall steadier. On the other hand, the
ECMWF might keep some of southern New England in the warm sector and
more convectively active. It is just too soon to be able to nail
down specifics this far out. Have opted for POPs below chance for
Sunday as looks for now that drier air should infiltrate the region
from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update...
This afternoon/evening...Moderate confidence.
MVFR cigs lingering along southern RI and far southeast MA
expected to improve to VFR by 20Z. Otherwise, high confidence VFR
for the remainder of this afternoon and evening as ceilings lift
and clouds decrease in coverage.
N winds will be quite light this afternoon, in some cases light
and variable. East coastal MA sea breeze lingers thru the
remainder of today, with a south coastal MA/RI sea breeze
developing thru 21Z.
Overnight...High confidence.
VFR, but local MVFR/IFR possible tonight in valley fog, as well
as possibility for patchy stratus/fog overnight along south
coastal MA/southern RI.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence.
VFR, with local MVFR possible Tuesday night in valley fog.
Prevailing S/SW winds Tue except sea breeze development expected
along the shorelines.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Weak seabreeze thru the remainder
of today. Sea breeze should redevelop during Tuesday around midday.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.
Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...High confidence.
Wednesday through Thursday morning...Generally VFR except areas
of MVFR/IFR in fog along the south coast.
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Generally VFR but areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys in vicinity of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New
England today. Light N/NE flow except for local sea breezes
lingering into this evening. SW flow gets underway Tue as high
becomes centered offshore.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Relatively light wind fields are expected and seas should
generally remain below 5 feet across all waters. There will be
areas of late night and early morning fog, especially along the
south coastal waters during this time period.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/Thompson
NEAR TERM...NMB/JWD/Thompson
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...NMB/JWD/Thompson
MARINE...NMB/JWD/Thompson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
207 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today and moves
offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. A slow moving cold front
will approach from Wednesday night into Thursday, then pass east
on Friday. Another frontal system may pass through on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west. Clouds
associated with a weak mid-level shortwave will also continue to
erode going through the afternoon as heights aloft increase and
the shortwave departs.
Generally partly to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the
afternoon. With weak flow, afternoon sea breezes will develop
near the coast and slowly push inland. Sea breezes may struggle to
make it into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Coolest conditions near the immediate coast and across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut where more cloud cover will
reside.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tonight as
the surface high and building ridging aloft dominate.
The high will move offshore on Tuesday, but the ridge axis will
still be located to the west of the region. Warmer air begins to
move around the offshore high with 850 HPA temperatures increasing
2C to 4C from Monday. However, increasing southerly flow off the
Atlantic around the offshore high will likely allow temperatures to
only warm to near normal levels for this time of year. Highs in the
middle 80s are forecast away from the coast, with readings closer to
80 near the coast due to the onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast Tue night. Models show some moisture return on the back side
of the sfc high, perhaps a weak shortwave trough moving through the
mean upper ridge which will also be passing to the east at that
time. GFS likely too aggressive with moisture return and lift, and
sided toward drier ECMWF/NAM ideas, with only isolated PoP from NYC
west late day Wed into Wed night.
A broad upper trough will then become established from the northern
Plains to the Northeast later this week. A surface cold front will
still be well to the NW on Thu, but expect scattered showers/tstms
to develop inland Thu afternoon invof a pre-frontal trough as a mid
level shortwave approaches, drifting toward the coast late day and
at night. With very warm/moist low levels, S low level flow and NW
flow aloft, would expect some potential for severe wx, but coverage
could ultimately be limited by a mid level capping inversion if the
00Z GFs is correct.
The cold front will slowly approach on Friday, with only slight
chance PoP at most as deeper moisture will be shunted to the east.
Fri could be the hottest day of the week, with lower/mid 90s except
at south facing coastlines, and potential for the heat index to
touch 100 in urban NE NJ. This front should move east by evening,
then latest model/ensemble guidance indicates potential for another
frontal system to quickly follow for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals this AFTN. Fair weather
cumulus with bases around 4500 ft will diminish by late AFTN
(21Z).
Northerly winds will shift around to S this AFTN as sea breezes
develop.
VFR overnight with perhaps some MVFR VIS in BR at rural airports
towards sunrise and light winds. VFR continues for Tuesday with
southern flow.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in southerly SFC wind for INTL
departure bank.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind shift from Sea Breeze could be as late as
21Z.
KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in SE winds for this AFTN at
less than 10 KT.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tue AFTN-Wed...VFR...though patchy early morning MVFR BR possible
outside the NYC Metro.
.Thu...Scattered to isolated mainly AFTN TS/SHRA with local MVFR
conds.
.Fri...VFR...CHC TS/SHRA in the Morning.
.Sat...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters through the middle of the
week with a cold front approaching late in the week.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
middle of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday, possibly also on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...Tongue
MARINE...Goodman/DS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
133 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system for mid week. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches
and crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM EDT, the combination of high clouds, and some
lingering lower clouds has kept skies partly to mostly cloudy
across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley region and NW CT. Skies
have become mostly sunny further N and W. We expect the overall
trend for sky cover to become mostly sunny across the region by
mid to late afternoon.
Temperatures should continue rising, reaching highs of around 80
in many valley areas by 5 or 6 PM, with 70s for most higher
terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals well into the evening
hours. Chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning.
Satellite imagery reveals few-sct cumulus clouds across the region
with a canopy of thin cirrus streaming across the region. Further
upstream, a thicker canopy of high and mid level clouds (still
VFR) that may impact the region into this evening. Later tonight
is the forecast challenge as dewpoint depressions diminish and
some patchy mist/fog may develop. This would be most susceptible at
climatology favored locations (KGFL and KPSF).
Winds will be light N-NW around 5 kt, becoming light and variable
or calm tonight. Winds shift from the southerly direction at
speeds less than 10 kts on Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
133 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system for mid week. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches
and crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM EDT, the combination of high clouds, and some
lingering lower clouds has kept skies partly to mostly cloudy
across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley region and NW CT. Skies
have become mostly sunny further N and W. We expect the overall
trend for sky cover to become mostly sunny across the region by
mid to late afternoon.
Temperatures should continue rising, reaching highs of around 80
in many valley areas by 5 or 6 PM, with 70s for most higher
terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals well into the evening
hours. Chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning.
Satellite imagery reveals few-sct cumulus clouds across the region
with a canopy of thin cirrus streaming across the region. Further
upstream, a thicker canopy of high and mid level clouds (still
VFR) that may impact the region into this evening. Later tonight
is the forecast challenge as dewpoint depressions diminish and
some patchy mist/fog may develop. This would be most susceptible at
climatology favored locations (KGFL and KPSF).
Winds will be light N-NW around 5 kt, becoming light and variable
or calm tonight. Winds shift from the southerly direction at
speeds less than 10 kts on Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1244 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today and moves
offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. A slow moving cold front
will approach from Wednesday night into Thursday, then pass east
on Friday. Another frontal system may pass through on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure continues to build in from the west. Clouds
associated with a weak mid-level shortwave will also continue to
erode going through the afternoon as heights aloft increase and
the shortwave departs.
Generally partly to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the
afternoon. With weak flow, afternoon sea breezes will develop
near the coast and slowly push inland. Sea breezes may struggle to
make it into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Coolest conditions near the immediate coast and across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut where more cloud cover will
reside.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tonight as
the surface high and building ridging aloft dominate.
The high will move offshore on Tuesday, but the ridge axis will
still be located to the west of the region. Warmer air begins to
move around the offshore high with 850 HPA temperatures increasing
2C to 4C from Monday. However, increasing southerly flow off the
Atlantic around the offshore high will likely allow temperatures to
only warm to near normal levels for this time of year. Highs in the
middle 80s are forecast away from the coast, with readings closer to
80 near the coast due to the onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast Tue night. Models show some moisture return on the back side
of the sfc high, perhaps a weak shortwave trough moving through the
mean upper ridge which will also be passing to the east at that
time. GFS likely too aggressive with moisture return and lift, and
sided toward drier ECMWF/NAM ideas, with only isolated PoP from NYC
west late day Wed into Wed night.
A broad upper trough will then become established from the northern
Plains to the Northeast later this week. A surface cold front will
still be well to the NW on Thu, but expect scattered showers/tstms
to develop inland Thu afternoon invof a pre-frontal trough as a mid
level shortwave approaches, drifting toward the coast late day and
at night. With very warm/moist low levels, S low level flow and NW
flow aloft, would expect some potential for severe wx, but coverage
could ultimately be limited by a mid level capping inversion if the
00Z GFs is correct.
The cold front will slowly approach on Friday, with only slight
chance PoP at most as deeper moisture will be shunted to the east.
Fri could be the hottest day of the week, with lower/mid 90s except
at south facing coastlines, and potential for the heat index to
touch 100 in urban NE NJ. This front should move east by evening,
then latest model/ensemble guidance indicates potential for another
frontal system to quickly follow for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals this AFTN. Fair weather
cumulus with bases around 4000 ft will diminish by late AFTN
(21Z).
Northerly winds will shift around to S-SE this AFTN as sea
breezes develop.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in southerly SFC wind for INTL
departure bank.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind shift from Sea Breeze could be an hour or
so sooner than FCST.
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind shift to SE may occur +/- an hour so of
FCST.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
.OUTLOOK FOR 14Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tue-Wed...VFR.
.Thu-Fri...Scattered to isolated AFTN showers/tstms possible with
local MVFR conds.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters through the middle of the
week with a cold front approaching late in the week.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
middle of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday, possibly also on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...Tongue
MARINE...Goodman/DS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1238 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system for mid week. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches
and crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM EDT, the combination of high clouds, and some
lingering lower clouds has kept skies partly to mostly cloudy
across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley region and NW CT. Skies
have become mostly sunny further N and W. We expect the overall
trend for sky cover to become mostly sunny across the region by
mid to late afternoon.
Temperatures should continue rising, reaching highs of around 80
in many valley areas by 5 or 6 PM, with 70s for most higher
terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals today into tonight.
Only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will be around this afternoon
with high pressure building in.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will likely lead to some
radiation fog at KGFL/KPSF after 06Z Tuesday. Occasional IFR
conditions look probable. Potential fog development more uncertain
at KALB/KPOU, so will leave out mention for now.
Winds will be light and variable, becoming N-NW around 5 kt later
this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1236 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today and moves
offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. A slow moving cold front
will approach from Wednesday night into Thursday, then pass east
on Friday. Another frontal system may pass through on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning forecast on track. Will update hourly grids based on
latest surface obs and satellite trends, but no significant
changes will be made to the forecast.
Otherwise...high pressure settles over the region today while a
shortwave trough off the New England coast lifts into the Canadian
Maritimes. Ridging aloft builds as heights rise. Lingering low
level moisture across far southeastern Connecticut and eastern
Long Island will be slow to erode with partly to mostly cloudy
skies forecast into the early afternoon before some clearing takes
place. The rest of the area will see partly to mostly sunny skies
through the day. With weak flow, afternoon sea breezes will
develop near the coast and slowly push inland. Sea breezes may
struggle to make it into NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Coolest conditions near the immediate coast and across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut where more cloud cover will
reside.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies are expected tonight as
the surface high and building ridging aloft dominate.
The high will move offshore on Tuesday, but the ridge axis will
still be located to the west of the region. Warmer air begins to
move around the offshore high with 850 HPA temperatures increasing
2C to 4C from Monday. However, increasing southerly flow off the
Atlantic around the offshore high will likely allow temperatures to
only warm to near normal levels for this time of year. Highs in the
middle 80s are forecast away from the coast, with readings closer to
80 near the coast due to the onshore flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will slowly pass off the Mid Atlantic
coast Tue night. Models show some moisture return on the back side
of the sfc high, perhaps a weak shortwave trough moving through the
mean upper ridge which will also be passing to the east at that
time. GFS likely too aggressive with moisture return and lift, and
sided toward drier ECMWF/NAM ideas, with only isolated PoP from NYC
west late day Wed into Wed night.
A broad upper trough will then become established from the northern
Plains to the Northeast later this week. A surface cold front will
still be well to the NW on Thu, but expect scattered showers/tstms
to develop inland Thu afternoon invof a pre-frontal trough as a mid
level shortwave approaches, drifting toward the coast late day and
at night. With very warm/moist low levels, S low level flow and NW
flow aloft, would expect some potential for severe wx, but coverage
could ultimately be limited by a mid level capping inversion if the
00Z GFs is correct.
The cold front will slowly approach on Friday, with only slight
chance PoP at most as deeper moisture will be shunted to the east.
Fri could be the hottest day of the week, with lower/mid 90s except
at south facing coastlines, and potential for the heat index to
touch 100 in urban NE NJ. This front should move east by evening,
then latest model/ensemble guidance indicates potential for another
frontal system to quickly follow for Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals this AFTN. Fair weather
cumulus with bases around 4000 ft will diminish by late AFTN
(21Z).
Northerly winds will shift around to S-SE this AFTN as sea
breezes develop.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in southerly SFC wind for INTL
departure bank.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind shift from Sea Breeze could be an hour or
so sooner than FCST.
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind shift to SE may occur +/- an hour so of
FCST.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
.OUTLOOK FOR 14Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tue-Wed...VFR.
.Thu-Fri...Scattered to isolated AFTN showers/tstms possible with
local MVFR conds.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters through the middle of the
week with a cold front approaching late in the week.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through the
middle of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms that
develop on Thursday, possibly also on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...Tongue
MARINE...Goodman/DS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and
crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM...Low stratus has eroded rather quickly and being
replaced by CU/SC with a canopy of higher CI/CS advecting across
the entire region. While this may have slowed down the diurnal
temperature climb a bit, expectations are for a partly-mostly
sunny day with terrain based cumulus clouds. Per the 12Z sounding,
rather stable exists up to H700 and per mixing layer heights,
forecast highs look good with no changes needed at this time.
Prev Disc...
Heights will rise as ridging builds in at all levels of the
atmosphere today. Have variable cloudy skies across the area
as higher level clouds stream in from northwest and have some
lingering stratus from overnight. Will have partly to mostly
sunny skies today. Light northerly flow across the area with
seasonable temperatures expected along with comfortable dew
points mainly in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals today into tonight.
Only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will be around this afternoon
with high pressure building in.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will likely lead to some
radiation fog at KGFL/KPSF after 06Z Tuesday. Occasional IFR
conditions look probable. Potential fog development more uncertain
at KALB/KPOU, so will leave out mention for now.
Winds will be light and variable, becoming N-NW around 5 kt later
this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into
Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving
low pressure system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday and Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and
crosses the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM...Low stratus has eroded rather quickly and being
replaced by CU/SC with a canopy of higher CI/CS advecting across
the entire region. While this may have slowed down the diurnal
temperature climb a bit, expectations are for a partly-mostly
sunny day with terrain based cumulus clouds. Per the 12Z sounding,
rather stable exists up to H700 and per mixing layer heights,
forecast highs look good with no changes needed at this time.
Prev Disc...
Heights will rise as ridging builds in at all levels of the
atmosphere today. Have variable cloudy skies across the area
as higher level clouds stream in from northwest and have some
lingering stratus from overnight. Will have partly to mostly
sunny skies today. Light northerly flow across the area with
seasonable temperatures expected along with comfortable dew
points mainly in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity return.
Ridging will continue to build in. The surface high will begin
to shift offshore on Tuesday with a southerly return flow
developing. Aloft the ridge axis is forecast to crest over the
region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the axis shifting
off the seaboard during the day. In the meantime, a stacked low
pressure system will be on the gradual approach. Deep southwest
flow will develop between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough. Heat and humidity will be in the rise and will be very
noticeably on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise
to 16 to 18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with dew points rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew points
will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
mid to upper 60s anticipated. These values combined with high
temperatures expected to top out in mainly on the 80s to lower 90s
with result in heat indices in the upper 80s to upper 90s. The
warmest temperatures and highest heat indices are expected up the
Hudson River Valley. Will continue to keep mention of the heat and
humidity in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
As the atmosphere warms up and becomes increasingly more humid
and unstable the threat of convection will be in the rise. With
only subtle height fall expected Wednesday and upper level support
remaining well to the west have slight chance pops across the
local area for the afternoon hours. However, the chances for
convection will continue Wednesday night as the upper trough and
low pressure system`s cold front move into the Great Lakes region.
Better chances will be west of the Hudson River Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall as
precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5+ inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region still under the
influence of a very warm and moist southerly flow. It will become
increasingly humid, with models indicating a pre-frontal trough
moving through at some point during the afternoon or evening. This
trough is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could be on the stronger side depending on the
eventual magnitude of instability and deep layer shear. Given the
anticipated above normal PWATS of +1 to +2 STDEV, heavy rainfall is
likely to occur within any persistent thunderstorms.
Another rather subtle boundary may move across the region on Friday,
with more mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Models are
showing a weaker system now compared to Thursday, but with the
continued warm and humid air mass in place, scattered convection
looks reasonable again. It will likely remain very warm and muggy
Friday.
Some of the 00Z model guidance showing a wave of low pressure
developing along a fairly flat and progressive upper level trough
for Saturday. Some GEFS ensemble members also depicting this
potential wave with some probabilities for precip as well, so will
raise pops to 30 percent to account for this possibility. This
potential system should exit the region by Sunday with drier weather
to close out the weekend. Overall, temperatures look to "cool"
closer to normal values during the upcoming weekend, with somewhat
of a reprieve in humidity levels as well.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the terminals today into tonight.
Only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will be around this afternoon
with high pressure building in.
Clear skies and light winds tonight will likely lead to some
radiation fog at KGFL/KPSF after 06Z Tuesday. Occasional IFR
conditions look probable. Potential fog development more uncertain
at KALB/KPOU, so will leave out mention for now.
Winds will be light and variable, becoming N-NW around 5 kt later
this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 35 to
45 percent this afternoon. Values are expected to recover to 80
to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to be generally 40 to 50 percent south of Interstate 90
and 35 to 45 percent north of Interstate 90.
Light northerly winds today will diminish tonight with a southerly
flow developing Tuesday at generally less than 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build in and dominate our weather into Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will return ahead of a slow moving low pressure
system. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday as the system`s cold front approaches and crosses the
region. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to 1.5 to
near 2 inches, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, which means
storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1009 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over New England today, resulting in
clearing skies and more seasonable temperatures. Heat and humidity
will increase this week as the high becomes centered offshore and
brings a southwest flow of hot and humid air into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the heat
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM Update...
Sufficient trapped low level moisture remained over southern New
England this morning for clouds to develop and linger. Still
expect this low level moisture to scour out over the course of
the day, but clearing across the area will likely take several
more hours. Radar showing spotty light returns across eastern MA
and RI, and as far west as the Worcester hills. Have added patchy
light drizzle to the forecast thru midday as well.
Forecast highs look on track, but we will need the anticipated
decrease in clouds over the next few hours in order to achieve
those highs. So at this time not adjusting forecast highs, but
will need to monitor.
300 AM Update...
Last of showers were over coastal waters SE of Nantucket and were
heading farther offshore. Wide range in conditions across region with
partial clearing working into lower CT Valley and outer Cape Cod
while clouds remain socked in elsewhere, and it`s foggy across
central MA, NE CT, and parts of E MA where rain fell last evening.
Weak surface low was passing well south of New England which has
maintained light N flow. There is a lot of low level moisture
trapped beneath subsidence inversion, so clouds/patchy fog will
hang around through daybreak, before clearing begins during
morning.
Some of the higher-res models (most notably HRRR, RAP, and NAM)
show some light precipitation early this morning, primarily in E
MA. This appears to be spotty drizzle due to deeper marine layer.
Since cloud heights are not all that low in this area right now,
will probably leave mention out of forecast.
Question for today is how fast does clearing occur? RAP forecast
soundings show reasonable trend, with much of interior breaking
out 12z-14z and coastal areas a bit later, more like 14z-18z. This
looks like one of those situations where low clouds erode on
edges, as opposed to clearing taking place from W to E, so it`s
possible some areas away from coast (E of CT River) take longer
than expected to clear out.
Gradient remains weak today so expect coastal sea breezes to
develop later this morning and early this afternoon.
Forecast highs in 70s look reasonable based upon model 2-meter
temperatures. Should get to around 80 in the CT and Merrimack
Valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over southern New England tonight. Light
winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass will help lows fall back
into the 50s inland (where we may see some patchy valley fog) and
to the lower 60s near coast.
As the high becomes centered offshore Tuesday, we get into return
SW flow which will begin to bring warmer (and eventually more
humid) air into region. Highs will top out well into 80s (except
70s near South Coast) if not around 90 in parts of CT and
Merrimack Valleys.
Some of the models (00z GFS and 21z SREF in particular) try to
bring showers/storms into southern New England Tue afternoon, as
moisture is drawn up from the mid Atlantic states and interacts
with a weak surface trough. We are not buying into this wetter
solution given axis of 500 mb ridge to our W with larger scale
subsidence present over region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Becoming hot and humid late in the week.
* Scattered thunderstorms will likely affect the region late Thu and
Fri.
* Low confidence forecast for the weekend. May have more showers on
Sat.
OVERALL PICTURE...
Upper flow across North America becomes more zonal for a time this
coming week. Fairly high confidence of hot temperatures and
increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. Have
a risk of approaching Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday if
dewpoints reach at least 70. Shortwave trof rotating about Hudson
Bay vortex and associated surface front approaches southern New
England Thursday night. The timing of this feature will be critical
as to threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Model consensus
would seem to suggest that the front may pass through southern New
England Friday morning or early afternoon, not diurnally optimal for
convection. Confidence is relatively low for the weekend. May not be
as dry as originally thought since flow aloft remains cyclonic and
from the WSW or SW. Also, both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational
runs suggest a frontal wave on Saturday.
DETAILS...
Wed...Temperatures will likely reach mid 80s to lower 90s. Cannot
rule out isolated thunderstorm over the western higher terrain
areas but expect that most, if not all, of region remains dry.
Thu...Operational models have ensemble support for a hot/humid day.
H850 temperatures will likely rise to at least around 18C and will
likely see all but the south coast and highest terrain areas reach
90 to 95. Sufficient instability may exist for scattered pulse late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the western zones. As the surface
front or prefrontal trough approaches, convection may persist into
the night for a time across the western zones.
Fri...Upper short wave trof and associated surface front crosses the
region. Timing is critical with regard to convective potential.
Model consensus for now would seem to have the frontal boundary
making it to the coast by midday or early afternoon, too soon to tap
into diurnal heating. However, Friday is still 5 days away and so
cannot be all that confident on timing details. There looks to be
sufficient bulk shear to support organized storms if the instability
is sufficient. Expect max temperatures to be a few degrees lower
than Thursday due to increased cloudiness. Nevertheless, many
locations are expected to reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70.
Next weekend...Confidence is relatively low at this time regarding
next Saturday and Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs
depict the broad upper trof axis to be west of the area and even
hint at a frontal wave passing through or just SE of the area on
Saturday. Have raised POPs and sky cover some for Saturday as a
consequence. Also, lowered temperatures along the coastal plain a
tad as well due to potential for more clouds and possibly onshore
flow. If a surface wave forms more as per the GFS, then temperatures
would likely be cooler and rainfall steadier. On the other hand, the
ECMWF might keep some of southern New England in the warm sector and
more convectively active. It is just too soon to be able to nail
down specifics this far out. Have opted for POPs below chance for
Sunday as looks for now that drier air should infiltrate the region
from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update...
Today...Moderate confidence.
14Z update...
Areas of MVFR ceilings should persist until 15Z-18Z, especially
across RI and eastern MA. Otherwise, becoming VFR as ceilings lift
and clouds decrease in coverage.
N/NE winds will be quite light and so should give way to coastal
sea breezes around midday or early this afternoon.
Tonight and Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR, but local MVFR/IFR possible in valley fog. Light winds
tonight will give way to S/SW winds Tue.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings persist until
15-16Z, then VFR expected. Light N/NE flow gives way to weak sea
breeze around 16z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Ceilings may briefly go to MVFR
during late this morning, otherwise VFR conditions forecast.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Tuesday night through Thursday morning...Generally VFR except areas
of MVFR/IFR in fog along the south coast.
Thursday afternoon through Friday...Generally VFR but areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys in vicinity of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA. Weak high pressure builds over New
England today. Light N/NE flow gives way to local sea breezes
later this morning and early this afternoon. SW flow gets underway
Tue as high becomes centered offshore.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence.
Relatively light wind fields are expected and seas should
generally remain below 5 feet across all waters. There will be
areas of late night and early morning fog, especially along the
south coastal waters during this time period.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD/Thompson
NEAR TERM...NMB/JWD/Thompson
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...NMB/JWD/Thompson
MARINE...JWD/Thompson