Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/10/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
819 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert
southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break
in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will
remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up
through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also
observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper
level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The
westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across
the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the
Desert Southwest.

With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this
afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in
Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected
overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short-
term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through
at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model
suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members
continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across
the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region
under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the
south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected
to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period.
These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south
along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective
activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent
through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the
GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward
into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat
northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA
by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a
tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs
remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows
are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all
of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a
bit cooler during the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Stronger than normal westerly flow will subside this evening. Onset
of the easterly flow is expected around 11z at KPHX. Breezy
conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon, with gusts
occasionally reaching 20 kt.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific
Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a
stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at
both KIPL and KBLH. Winds will subside overnight, though gusts as
high as 20 to 25 kt are likely Sunday afternoon.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work
week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints
generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees.
Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough
passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier
airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a
warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to
around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain.
Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest
afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain
well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will
mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman



Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 255 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will persist into this evening and develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...KD FIRE WESTERH...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 158 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...To Aviation Discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1235 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites, and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south, along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our cwa by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70- mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 921 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models promise that low pressure will remain centered over the Pacific Northwest with high pressure stretching across Texas/northern Mexico into next weekend. This pattern will continue to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather. The only real concern weather wise is a heightened fire weather threat on Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough will brush Arizona bringing southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward each day. The strongest of these winds will be on Sunday where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Looking to the future...A few model runs hinting at the return of the monsoon by late next weekend but others continue the dry weather. Keep your fingers crossed. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin AVIATION...KD/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 830 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Another very quiet morning across our cwa as light westerly flow through the column continues to keep monsoon moisture well off to our south and east. Very warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500mb temp -5.7C on the 12z KPSR sounding) and lingering low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints near 50 degrees) helped to keep overnight lows up a bit across south-central AZ this morning, with Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting a low of 87. A dry forecast is still on tap for today with highs across the lower deserts still forecast to end up in the 108-112 degree range. Based on current trends, inherited forecasts are still looking good, and no updates are planned at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 435 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 301 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 256 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 940 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far southeastern sections Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week with above average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening were mainly across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. As of 930 pm activity had ended across the areas with debris cloud cover across eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. PW values this evening still holding above 1" from Tucson south and southeast. Will run out a quick update for overnight trends. Lowering PW values on Saturday with upper high over SW New Mexico will limit any thunderstorm activity to along the International border from Nogales east and across the White mountains. Highs on Saturday similar or slightly warmer than today. Check previous discussion below for details on the remainder of the forecast package through next Friday. Definitely not monsoonal like. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z. Scattered debris cloud cover from KTUS S and SE will continue to slowly dissipate. VFR conditions will occur Saturday, except for a few -TSRA/-SHRA NE of KSAD and across the Chiricahua Mountains NE of KDUG. SFC wind Saturday afternoon wly/nwly at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. The strongest wind will be near KSAD. Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few thunderstorms may occur Saturday afternoon across the White Mountains northeast of Safford, and across the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern Cochise County. Dry conditions will then prevail Saturday night through next Friday. 20-foot winds Sunday and Monday may approach 20 mph in some locales. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Increasing westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday due to a fairly tight mid-level gradient will continue the drying process. This pattern should also translate into gusty generally westerly winds during the afternoon hours. However, wind speeds will remain below wind advisory criteria. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical Tuesday through Friday with depicting a sprawling high pressure ridge aloft to encompass the southwestern CONUS. Have noted that the GFS was more robust versus the ECMWF/CMC with the depiction of light liquid rain amounts to encroach upon far southeastern sections periodically Wednesday thru Friday. Given the progged synoptic pattern, have opted for the drier ECMWF/CMC solutions for this forecast package. Thus, expect dry conditions to continue across southeast Arizona during the middle and latter part of next week. Expect only very minor daily temp changes Saturday through next Friday, with high temps to generally be at least a few degs below normal through the period. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 900 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon, with little or no chance for rainfall. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above, normal through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Early this evening, deep southwest flow aloft was present over all but far southeast Arizona, as deep upper troffing pushed into the Pacific Northwest coast, shunting the main high center southeast of Arizona and setting up stronger west to southwest flow aloft into the desert southwest. This deep southwest flow was easily seen in the area raobs, most prominent in Flagstaff and to slightly lesser an extent in Phoenix. The west flow has continued to erode moisture over the central deserts, the PWAT in Phoenix this evening was down to just 0.73 inches and surface dewpoints over the central deserts at 8 pm were mostly in the middle 40s - mostly down 3-10 degrees from 24 hours ago. IR imagery at 8 pm showed clear skies area wide. One small disturbance rotating around the upper high to our southeast had pushed up into far southeast Arizona this evening, increasing PWAT at Tucson to almost 1.3 inches and could be seen in the TUS sounding as a layer of southeast winds near 500 mb. The overall deep west/southwest flow impinging on the rest of Arizona ahead of the Pacific northwest troffing will keep this feature well to our southeast and it should not affect our weather tonight. For the rest of the night we can expect generally clear skies and gradually decreasing west winds along with mild to warm overnight low temperatures. Forecasts look to be in good shape and no updates are planned. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Increasing westerly flow ahead of a deep upper trof is expected to continue to scour out any remaining monsoon moisture over extreme SE and eastern AZ during this period. The latest HRRR model run keeps all convective activity confined to areas to the south and east of Tucson and over the white Mountains, well outside of our CWA this afternoon/evening, with even less activity on tap on Saturday. 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range, 500 mb temps in the -4C to -5C range, along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rise a bit above normal again on Saturday, with lower desert highs mostly in the 108-112 degree range. Sunday through next Friday... Further drying is expected across the region during this period as a very deep, and cold upper low center (for July) moves across the Northern Rockies during the early part of next week, bringing a chance for some rare mid-summer snowfall to the higher elevations of MT/WY. To the south of this low center, a band of anomalously strong westerlies are expected to move across the Great Basin/northern AZ region Sun-Tue. 700mb winds are expected to reach 30 kts, or even greater across parts of northern AZ, which are in the 99% (or higher) climatological percentile for this time of year, according to the NAEFS percentile tables. The main impact from this belt of very strong winds will be to mix drier air down to the sfc across the region, with sfc dewpoints likely falling into the 30s, or even 20s across most of our CWA. The dry airmass, combined with a bit of cooling aloft, will likely allow many outlying lower desert locations to see lows in the 70s each night. These cooler temperatures, combined with the lower RH`s will result in the nights feeling noticeably more pleasant than what we typically see this time of year. Highs will be near or just a bit above normal, mostly in the 105-110 degree range across the lower deserts. PWATS across the region will also be well below normal, in the 0.50-0.75 inch range, which is 1-2 SD below normal. Needless to say, chances for rainfall/thunderstorms during this entire period will be basically at zero as our extended break in the monsoon continues. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
324 PM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 ...Updated to include fire weather discussion... .SYNOPSIS... The onshore flow over the coast and some valleys will bring an overnight marine layer into next week...that should clear by the afternoons. Breezy winds may occur in the mountains and deserts into Monday. The near normal afternoon temperatures will persist through Monday...with overnight lows above normal. A high should build in from Tuesday to Thursday for a slow warming trend. Then a low system may approach by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON) A low pressure system currently just west of Vancouver will drop into Oregon tomorrow with a dry trough extending into central California...then move eastward through Monday. Northwest winds will strengthen Saturday night through Sunday night as a result. Southern Santa Barbara County will likely need a wind advisory Saturday night through Sunday night...while the LA Mountains and the Antelope Valley should need one for late Sunday afternoon and night. Gusts into the 50 mph range are likely in these areas during the wind peak Sunday night. Monday will also see some breezy northwest winds...but should be the weakest of the next three days. Stratus coverage and temperatures on Saturday should be similar to today...save for less stratus over SBA and SLO counties thanks to the dry front passage and the SMX-BFL pressure gradient significantly weakening by 3 mb. The Northwest flow will likely keep most of Ventura and southern SBA counties stratus clear Sunday and Monday...while a strong coastal eddy will push clouds to the coastal slopes in LA County with some spits of drizzle possible. The Central Coast stratus remains a tough call on Sunday...but should be mostly cloud-free on Monday as breezy northeast flow forms in the morning. All of this adds up to a mixed bag of temperature trends with the winds and stratus evolution being the main drivers. .LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI) An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over north-central Mexico will expand into California Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring a gradual warming trend to the region...with interior valleys approaching 100 degrees by Wednesday or Thursday. LA and Ventura County coastal and valley areas should also see warming with the air mass change and likely shrinking of the marine layer. SBA and SLO counties on the other hand will see a ceasing of the northwest flow and a return to onshore flow...which should increase stratus coverage and largely neutralize the warming trend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are advertising a weak trough dropping down into California by as early as Friday...which would enhance the marine layer and usher in some modest cooling. The GFS ensemble members are in very good agreement with this timing especially considering how far out this is...so did start the cooling trend in the forecast. && .AVIATION...08/18Z. Upper level ridge of high pressure centered south of the area will shift north while a trough of low pressure approaches Northern California. And a mid level trough of low pressure over the area will persist. Upper level moderate west-southwest winds will prevail while mid level light southwest winds become light west after 09/22z. Moderate onshore pressure gradient through 09/04z and after 09/20z otherwise weak mixed northerly and onshore gradient. Marine capping inversion at LAX was approximately 2.3kft and VBG 2kft this morning and will differ by minus .3kft LAX and minus 1kft VBG Saturday morning. Broken to overcast low level cloud field is expected to be broken Saturday morning. Marine layer at LAX at 1500Z is 2293 feet deep and the inversion top is at 4764 feet with a temp of 20.6 degrees C. KLAX...chance cigs 010-012 between 09/06-09/18z. KBUR...chance cigs 012 after 09/12z. virtually certain - 95-100% very likely - 80-95% likely - 60-80% chance - 30-60% very unlikely - 20% OR LESS && .MARINE...08/200 PM... Will continue with the gale watch for increasing northwest winds. Northwest winds will likely increase Saturday afternoon and peak Sunday in strength as well as areal coverage from Piedras Blancas to San Nicolas Island. Otherwise small craft advisory for gusts to 25 kt will exist in the meantime. Northwest winds will diminish Monday but there is a chance SCA for hazardous sea conditions as well as for northwest gusts to 25 kt through Wednesday. Extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores will exist from swells originating from tropical cyclones Blas and Celia and from the Southern Ocean through the period. TC Blas was currently 1200 miles southwest of L.A. County and will weaken while moving west-northwest today. Swell originating from Blas had arrived thursday and will peak today and linger through Saturday. Swells generated by Celia are expected to begin to arrive next week Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... 08/300 PM... Elevated fire danger will continue across interior sections through the weekend. For this afternoon, the gusty onshore winds will mostly be focused across the Antelope Valley and Los Angeles County mountains. Over the weekend, west to north winds are expected to become more widespread across interior sections, including gusty sundowner winds across the western portions of the Santa Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains. Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph will be common across the mountains, Antelope Valley, and western portions of the SBA South Coast, then potentially ramping up to between 40 and 50 mph on Sunday afternoon and night. On Saturday, humidities will generally remain above 20 percent with the exception of the Antelope Valley where values in the teens can be expected. By Sunday afternoon and evening, more widespread humidities falling into the teens (and possibly single digits across higher mountains) can be expected across interior sections bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions. The greatest threat of critical conditions exceeding 6 hours will be the mountains and Antelope Valley on Sunday afternoon and evening, where a fire weather watch has been posted. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night For zones 252>254. (See LAXRFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening For zone 259. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday For zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night For zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Kittell FIRE...Gomberg AVIATION...30 MARINE...30 SYNOPSIS...Sukup weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 312 PM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow and a deep marine layer will remain in place through Saturday, with temperatures continuing well below seasonal norms. Low cloudiness and patchy fog will spread back well inland tonight. Approach of the tail end of a cold frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest will likely lead to some enhancement of the coastal drizzle overnight into Saturday morning, and also bring a slight chance of showers north of about Pt Reyes. Breezy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon and evening, and again on Sunday, in the wake of the frontal passage. Dry weather and a modest warming trend then look to be in store for our area the first part of next week, as an upper level ridge of high pressure slowly rebuilds over California. && .DISCUSSION...as of 02:50 PM PDT Friday...Aside from a few areas of lingering coastal stratus, primarily from the vicinity of the Golden Gate southward to around Half Moon Bay, sunny conditions prevail districtwide. Clearing of the low cloudiness occurred a bit faster than yesterday, and in conjunction with some diminishment in the onshore pressure gradient, resulted in modest warming of afternoon temperatures especially in the North and East Bay valleys. The 2 pm temperatures at Concord and Livermore Airports were 84F and 81F, respectively 8 and 6 deg warmer than the same time Thursday. Consistent with this, latest data from both the Bodega Bay and Ft Ord profilers show some diminishment of the marine layer, though still maintaining a depth of about 1500 ft. An unseasonably deep upper level low now centered about 500 miles west of Seattle will continue moving southeastward towards the northern Oregon coast. Models are in generally good agreement in projecting that the tail end of its associated cold front will dissipate as it brushes into the far northwestern part of our CWA late tonight and Saturday morning. Consistent with latest model output RH and QPF, and noting ECMWF MOS 12-hr KSTS POP of 16 for 12Z Sat to 00Z Sun, have introduced a slight chance of showers for the coast and coastal hills north of about Pt Reyes Saturday morning. Of potentially greater significance however is the ramp- up in the marine layer likely to occur as this disturbance approaches, potentially resulting in more substantial coastal drizzle late tonight into Saturday morning. Although precip totals would remain quite small, it could be sufficient to lead to locally slick wet surfaces on roadways. Saturday looks to be a bit cooler than today, and the coolest day of either the previous or next several days. Widespread low cloudiness and patchy fog is expected for the morning hours, locally lingering into the afternoon around the Bays. Also expect onshore winds to pick up as the day progresses with locally breezy conditions by late afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Sunday and on into the first part of next week, a modest warming trend is expected, primarily inland areas, as as an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to slowly rebuild over California. This should also lead to some shallowing of the marine layer, and diminishment of the night and morning inland extension of the coastal stratus. && .AVIATION...As of 11:00 AM PDT Friday...Clouds have burned off in many spots earlier than forecast. Satellite shows a rapid decrease over the past hour, so would expect VFR to happen in most spots. Looking at IFR CIGs to return tonight. Moderate confidence. Vicinity of KSFO...Conditions rapidly improving with VFR now expected just after 18Z. Winds of 270 to 290 through the period gusts close to 30 KT from 22Z to 04Z. Moderate to high confidence. SFO Bridge Approach...Approach now clear. Should remain VFR until around 04Z. Otherwise similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clouds quickly dissipating now with VFR forecast 19Z to around 23Z. Winds generally 270 to 290 with speeds to 12 KT for the afternoon into the evening. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE...as of 2:34 PM PDT Friday...Surface high pressure over the eastern pacific will will gradually rebuild on Saturday. A weak cold front will slide south over the coastal waters during the day with stronger winds expected going into Sunday. A mixed northwest and southwest swell will continue to move through the coastal waters through the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...SF Bay until 11 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Blier AVIATION: Bell MARINE: Bell Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 238 PM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .Synopsis...An upper level low pressure system will continue to bring below normal temperatures this weekend with breezy conditions and slight chances for rain showers in the northern Sacramento Valley. Temperatures will warm back to normal with dry conditions by the start of the work week. .Discussion...Water vapor imagery and RAP model 500 mb analysis indicated a trough of low pressure positioned in the eastern Pacific just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. A general trough pattern is present across the west coast, and a band of showers has developed in front of the approaching system with some increasing clouds. Radar returns have been light today, and no lightning has been detected as a result of weak instability. Chances for showers will continue this evening and stay confined to Shasta and Lassen counties. Model forecasts are in good agreement with bringing the positively- tilted trough onshore this weekend, which will continue to bring below normal temperatures to NorCal and slight chances for showers in the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley. The base of the trough will move through Sunday, which will gradually end rain shower chances. Temperatures will rebound to near normal on Monday and continue through the week. Chances for rain will be minimal under stable upper level conditions. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday) Little change next week as fairly flat ridging brings dry weather and near normal high temperatures with dry weather. Delta breeze influenced areas should see relatively cool nights and mornings, with near normal lows elsewhere. EK/Dang && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Isolated -SHRA will be possible north of KRDD through Saturday. Marine stratus will likely reach the Delta region again tonight. South to west winds 5-15 kt will continue into Saturday. Dang && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
132 PM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will likely continue to affect many coastal and some valley areas into the weekend, with near or slightly below normal temperatures. Low pressure passing to the north Saturday night into Sunday will produce gusty sundowner winds in Santa Barbara County. Warming is likely for inland areas next week as high pressure builds aloft. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON) A low pressure system currently just west of Vancouver will drop into Oregon tomorrow with a dry trough extending into central California...then move eastward through Monday. Northwest winds will strengthen Saturday night through Sunday night as a result. Southern Santa Barbara County will likely need a wind advisory Saturday night through Sunday night...while the LA Mountains and the Antelope Valley should need one for late Sunday afternoon and night. Gusts into the 50 mph range are likely in these areas during the wind peak Sunday night. Monday will also see some breezy northwest winds...but should be the weakest of the next three days. Stratus coverage and temperatures on Saturday should be similar to today...save for less stratus over SBA and SLO counties thanks to the dry front passage and the SMX-BFL pressure gradient significantly weakening by 3 mb. The Northwest flow will likely keep most of Ventura and southern SBA counties stratus clear Sunday and Monday...while a strong coastal eddy will push clouds to the coastal slopes in LA County with some spits of drizzle possible. The Central Coast stratus remains a tough call on Sunday...but should be mostly cloud-free on Monday as breezy northeast flow forms in the morning. All of this adds up to a mixed bag of temperature trends with the winds and stratus evolution being the main drivers. .LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI) An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over north-central Mexico will expand into California Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring a gradual warming trend to the region...with interior valleys approaching 100 degrees by Wednesday or Thursday. LA and Ventura County coastal and valley areas should also see warming with the air mass change and likely shrinking of the marine layer. SBA and SLO counties on the other hand will see a ceasing of the northwest flow and a return to onshore flow...which should increase stratus coverage and largely neutralize the warming trend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are advertising a weak trough dropping down into California by as early as Friday...which would enhance the marine layer and usher in some modest cooling. The GFS ensemble members are in very good agreement with this timing especially considering how far out this is...so did start the cooling trend in the forecast. && .AVIATION...08/18Z. Upper level ridge of high pressure centered south of the area will shift north while a trough of low pressure approaches Northern California. And a mid level trough of low pressure over the area will persist. Upper level moderate west-southwest winds will prevail while mid level light southwest winds become light west after 09/22z. Moderate onshore pressure gradient through 09/04z and after 09/20z otherwise weak mixed northerly and onshore gradient. Marine capping inversion at LAX was approximately 2.3kft and VBG 2kft this morning and will differ by minus .3kft LAX and minus 1kft VBG Saturday morning. Broken to overcast low level cloud field is expected to be broken Saturday morning. Marine layer at LAX at 1500Z is 2293 feet deep and the inversion top is at 4764 feet with a temp of 20.6 degrees C. KLAX...chance cigs 010-012 between 09/06-09/18z. KBUR...chance cigs 012 after 09/12z. virtually certain - 95-100% very likely - 80-95% likely - 60-80% chance - 30-60% very unlikely - 20% OR LESS && .MARINE...08/200 PM. Will continue with the gale watch for increasing northwest winds. Northwest winds will likely increase Saturday afternoon and peak Sunday in strength as well as areal coverage from Piedras Blancas to San Nicolas Island. Otherwise small craft advisory for gusts to 25 kt will exist in the meantime. Northwest winds will diminish Monday but there is a chance SCA for hazardous sea conditions as well as for northwest gusts to 25 kt through Wednesday. Extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores will exist from swells originating from tropical cyclones Blas and Celia and from the Southern Ocean through the period. TC Blas was currently 1200 miles southwest of L.A. County and will weaken while moving west-northwest today. Swell originating from Blas had arrived thursday and will peak today and linger through Saturday. Swells generated by Celia are expected to begin to arrive next week Wednesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night For zones 252>254. (See LAXRFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening For zone 259. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday For zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night For zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Kittell AVIATION...30 MARINE...30 SYNOPSIS...Sukup weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 125 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon, with little or no chance for rainfall. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Increasing westerly flow ahead of a deep upper trof is expected to continue to scour out any remaining monsoon moisture over extreme se and eastern AZ during this period. The latest HRRR model run keeps all convective activity confined to areas to the south and east of Tucson and over the white Mountains, well outside of our cwa this afternoon/evening, with even less activity on tap on Saturday. 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range, 500 mb temps in the -4C to -5C range, along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rise a bit above normal again on Saturday, with lower desert highs mostly in the 108-112 degree range. Sunday through next Friday... Further drying is expected across the region during this period as a very deep, and cold upper low center (for July) moves across the Northern Rockies during the early part of next week, bringin a chance for some rare mid-summer snowfall to the higher elevations of MT/WY. To the south of this low center, a band of anomalously strong westerlies are expected to move across the Great Basin/northern AZ region Sun-Tue. 700mb winds are expected to reach 30 kts, or even greater across parts of northern AZ, which are in the 99% (or higher) climatological percentile for this time of year, according to the NAEFS percentile tables. The main impact from this belt of very strong winds will be to mix drier air down to the sfc across the region, with sfc dewpoints likely falling into the 30s, or even 20s across most of our cwa. The dry airmass, combined with a bit of cooling aloft will likely allow many outlying lower desert locations to see lows in the 70s each night. These cooler temperatures, combined with the lower RH`s will result in the nights feeling noticeably more pleasant than what we typically see this time of year. Highs will be near, or just a bit above normal, mostly in the 105-110 degree range across the lower deserts. PWATS across the region will also be well below normal, in the 0.50-0.75 inch range, which is 1-2 SD below normal. Needless to say, chances for rainfall/thunderstorms during this entire period will be basically at zero, as our extended break in the monsoon continues. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Generally clear skies to continue with some afternoon high based cu mainly situated over the high terrain to the east. Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns with occasionally gusty afternoon westerlies. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Southerly winds through the afternoon with winds shifting westerly at KIPL this evening. Winds will be breezy at KBLH this afternoon, but gusts should mostly remain less than 20 kts. Skies to remain clear. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday... Unusually dry conditions to settle over the area throughout the weekend lasting through much of next week. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
901 AM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonal weather will continue this coming week as a persistent summertime pattern continues. Expect lots of sunshine along with coastal clouds nights and mornings. A low pressure trough will bring slightly cooler weather along with some gusty winds in parts of the mountains and deserts on Sunday and Monday. A high pressure ridge will bring warmer weather Tuesday through Thursday and less extensive coastal clouds. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Low clouds were overall slightly less extensive at sunrise this morning than they were yesterday at that time. The marine layer depth was about the same while the cloud bases were a little higher. The result was a thinner cloud deck that cleared quickly this morning. Very similar weather will continue this coming week, but with some slight variations. A high pressure ridge over Texas will morph westward today and Saturday, which will suppress the marine layer and boost temperatures just a little. On Sunday a low pressure trough will move through the northwestern states. For us it will bring a coastal eddy that will deepen our marine layer and extend the coastal clouds farther inland Sunday and Monday. It will also bring some gusty westerly winds in parts of the mountains and deserts, particularly Sunday evening. Temperatures will drop a few degrees across the region those days. On Tuesday the high pressure ridge reasserts itself to start a warming trend. Higher daytime temperatures will result Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... 081530Z...Coast/Valleys...Stratus, with bases 1600-2000 ft MSL and tops near 2500 ft MSL, will clear over the valleys and coast by 17Z this morning. The marine layer inversion was around 9 C this morning. Far inland areas with vis of 3-5 SM HZ will improve to P6SM by 18Z. VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon, with low clouds redeveloping along the coast late this evening, with slightly lower tops and bases. Vis of 2-4 SM BR is expected over inland areas where low clouds near higher terrain. Mountains/Deserts...Clear with unrestricted vis through Saturday morning. Local West wind 25-35KT through and below the passes in Riverside and San Diego counties, with associated uddfs/llws this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... 830 am...Westerly wind gusts near 20 kt will develop over the outer waters Sunday as an upper-level low pressure trough approaches the region. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... 830 am...South swells from 190-210 degrees will peak 4 ft/12 seconds today and Saturday. This will generate surf of 3 to 5 ft and moderate to strong rip currents along south and southwest facing beaches through the weekend. Highest surf and greatest area of strong rip currents will be in northern Orange county. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Sunday evening for Orange County. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 840 AM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will be a few degrees above normal, or in the 107 to 110 degree range. && .DISCUSSION... An extremely quiet morning (for early July) today as our typical monsoon moisture has been pushed off well to the south and east of our cwa. An indication of how dry the atmosphere is can be seen in the morning dewpoints across South-Central AZ, which are now mainly in the upper 30s and 40s, and in the 12Z PSR balloon sounding, which shows a PWAT of only 0.69 inch. The more typical 50 and 60 degree dewpoints have been pushed southward into the Tucson area and across extreme se AZ. Given the continued forecast for more westerly flow through the column across the region, and the latest HRRR high-res model run, which continues to keep all afternoon/evening convection well off to our south and east, the current forecast for near-zero pops across most of our cwa looks good, and no updates are planed at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Friday... Thursday evenings weather balloon soundings over AZ continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture mainly over the southeast quarter of the state. However PHX and TUS VAD wind profiles at 2 am mst showed low level west and northwest winds, indicative of drier air spreading in from the west. Yet despite remnant monsoon moisture yesterday, atmospheric mid levels were still too warm for any convective threats in our forecast area near Phoenix. Models however do forecast bouts of moisture seeps from Mexico, from occasional low level south winds, but mainly into far southeast AZ and outside our forecast area through the weekend. Besides, mid level temperatures stay fairly warm, providing a very stable afternoon airmass through next week. In fact the GFS model forecasts 500 mb temps to warm to minus 2 deg C over southern CA and southern AZ on Monday. This is rare and has happened about 2 or 3 times in 30 years. In fact a quick look at modeled 500 mb temperatures across the entire Pacific to Asia, even in the equatorial regions, show the minus 2 deg C in AZ to be warmest, with the exception of a modeled plus 6 deg C temp over Himalaya Mtns. Mt Everest at 29 K ft is 11K ft above the 500 mb level. Therefore dry and stable conditions are forecast the next seven days, with an extended break in the Monsoon. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Generally clear skies to continue with some afternoon high based cu mainly situated over the high terrain to the east. Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns with occasionally gusty afternoon westerlies. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Southerly winds through the afternoon with winds shifting westerly at KIPL this evening. Winds will be breezy at KBLH this afternoon, but gusts should mostly remain less than 20 kts. Skies to remain clear. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday... Unusually dry conditions to settle over the area throughout the weekend lasting through much of next week. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
428 AM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An unseasonably cool upper-level trough will bring significantly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain through the weekend. Tempertures will moderate across the interior for the by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Cooler and wetter conditions will return to most of the region during the next few days. An unseasonably strong upper-level trough is currently moving into the area. Several disturbances in the flow aloft will cross northern California over the next few days, bringing rounds of increasing ascent, which will aid in the coverage and intensity of any rainfall. The more favored locations for this will be across the northern half of the forecast area, as this region will reside under the jet stream aloft, which these disturbances will traverse in. Heading through the weekend, additional disturbances will continue to cross the area, as the trough digs farther south, lowering the mid-level heights while prolonging the rainfall potential through Sunday. Taking a closer look at the various model initializations/forecasts, they show precipital water values (PWATs) at 06z ranging from 0.5 to 0.75 inches across the Trinity horn, to ~0.75-1 inch along the Redwood coast, with a plume of >1.5 inches pointed towards the Oregon coast. This plume is forecast to drop south and have these PWATs increase from ~1 inch across Trinity county to the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range along and west of Highway 101 across Humboldt, and Del Norte counties by 15z, reaching the Mendocino coast after 00z. In fact, looking at current values to our north and cross-referencing with the SPC climatology page, the current values at Medford and Salem, Oregon are in the 90th to 95th percentile range. Given the very good model continuity and considering the various factors mentioned above, POPs were increased for most of the forecast area through Sunday. As mentioned in the forecast discussion from yesterday, rainfall records for today of 0.22 inches at Eureka and 0.62 inches at Crescent City could be in jeopardy of being tied or broken. With decreasing heights aloft, persistent cloud cover, and periods of rain, afternoon high temperatures will be cooler than average across the interior through the weekend, with coastal locations remaining near seasonal normals. .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) A zonal flow will return to the region, with rising mid-level heights and temperatures at 850mb warming compared to this weekend. Northerly surface winds are expected to develop by Monday and persist through at least the middle of the week. This type of setup will allow temperatures to warm significantly across the interior valleys, while remaining close to normal near the coast. /PD && .AVIATION...A frontal band of cloudiness will continue to impact the Redwood Coast terminals this morning. Generally light rain will continue to shift SE, eventually spreading to KACV. The models disagree with the timing of this precipitation with the WRF bringing it to KACV by 14-15Z and the HRRR holding off until 00Z. The latest radar trends argue for an earlier timing, but much of this will likely be drizzle. However, deep layer moisture and orographic forcing should allow for periods of light rain as well. Rainfall should decrease in coverage and intensity by afternoon with a resurgence of light rain Friday night as the upper trough gets closer to the area. Generally VFR conditions are expected at KUKI until evening when low clouds are forecast to move into the area. Area-wide, winds are expected to remain fairly light. /SEC && .MARINE...Light winds are forecast to continue through the weekend with wind directions occasionally becoming southerly N of Cape Mendocino ahead of a few frontal troughs. N winds are expected to return by Sunday night with advisory level speeds possible in the southern offshore waters. More widespread northerlies are progged by the middle of the coming week as high pressure over the E Pacific rebuilds toward the area and the inland thermal trough sharpens. /SEC && .EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$ Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA Follow us on facebook and twitter at: http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .UPDATE... MORNING SOUNDING REMAINED LOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST ABOVE 1.2 INCHES...SOLID DRYNESS ABOVE 960 MB. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE NOTED OFF THE DECK WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY STEERING ALOFT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAINS ON TARGET WITH NEAR 90 COAST AND MID 90S INTERIOR, AND HEAT INDICES 103 TO 107 AWAY FROM THE COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ONSET STILL APPEARS ON TAP FOR MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS AND BEST INITIATED NEAR SEABREEZE AND LAKE BOUNDARIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ AVIATION... VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT SOME CONVECTION BEING POSSIBLE INLAND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE AN IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS WITH ANY CONVECTION REMAINING AS THE SEA BREEZES RETREAT. OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER. 02/RAG .DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASES ON THE PWAT`S TO AROUND 1.6 IN BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID LEVELS IS STILL VERY LIMITED. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 101 TO 104 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND 104 TO 107 IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST GULF COAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT VARY MUCH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL STILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOUR THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HEAT INDEX AROUND 101 TO 105THROUGH MID WEEK. && .MARINE... AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAK GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 93 80 92 79 / 10 0 10 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 92 81 92 81 / 10 10 10 20 MIAMI 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 10 20 NAPLES 92 78 92 77 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...02/RAG/35/JR SHORT TERM...35/JR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 940 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...Continued Hot and Humid with Isolated to Scattered Late Afternoon Storms... .UPDATE...The central Florida peninsula is between two upper lows this morning one well west across the central Gulf of Mexico and another about 350 miles east of Grand Bahama Island. At the mid levels...a weak H5 ridge center was off the SW FL coast with a 500 mb trough dropping se off the SE Atlc coast through the day and bringing increasing mid layer northerly flow behind this feature toward evening. The sfc ridge extends across S FL into the ern Gulf with low lvl SW flow veering some to the NW-W across the north through the day. Morning soundings show PWATs around 1.6-1.7 inches from Tampa to the Cape with warm mid level temps at H7 around 11 degs C. H5 temps have cooled to -8 to -9 C though which may portend some stronger late day convection with mid level vort dropping down from the nrn peninsula twd early evening. Higher resolution short range models indicate some increase in convection from yesterday though HRRR again looks over done on coverage. NSSL WRF and 4km WRF for SPC has somewhat later convective development than local WRFs and recent HRRR runs with convection favored across areas from the srn interior up to Orlando and Volusia/nrn Brevard into the evening. Made some slight adjustments to temps in a few spots and increased pops to 30 pct for srn interior areas south of a subtle sfc trough feature and where best late day convergence may occur south of this boundary. Overall though another hot and humid day with highs from 92-95 across the coastal counties and 94-98 across the interior. Heat indices will peak from 103 to 107 degrees for much of the area. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR through 18z then continue VCTS for KDAB and interior terminals this afternoon. Will consider need for any TEMPO groups with convective trends into this afternoon but coverage expected to be isolated, with slightly higher coverage possible across the interior from KMCO southward. && .MARINE... SSW/SW winds across the waters this morning will become SE near the coast this afternoon to 10-15 knots. seas 2 ft near shore to 3 ft well offshore. Little change to forecast with CWF update. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 20 10 MCO 96 76 95 76 / 20 20 20 10 MLB 94 77 92 76 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 94 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 97 77 96 77 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 98 77 96 77 / 20 20 20 10 ORL 97 78 95 78 / 20 20 20 10 FPR 93 73 92 75 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Volkmer/Bragaw
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Despite some morning clouds and an easterly wind across the area, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90, save the far south which is still holding in the lower 80s as clouds continue there. Several small waves noted in the flow, one of which is approaching central kansas at this hour. Experimental HRRR has a relatively reasonable solution that brings the MCV into the CWA and interacts with an outflow moving up from the south out of earlier convection, and brings a round of showers and thunderstorms across western and southern areas later this afternoon into the evening. Wind fields are weak, although CAPE could be enough to generate some wind with storms that develop. LLJ is only around 25kts overnight, but may redevelop storms over central/south central Kansas overnight and move eastward across mainly our southern counties. Only carrying slight chance to low chance PoPs given coverage and uncertainty. Lows tonight forecast near 70 with highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 No major changes made in the extended with still some variances in model guidance on timing and coverage of precipitation. Best chances for seeing more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday. More details below. Temporary ridging aloft Saturday night and Sunday should keep much of the area dry. Strong upper trough across the Inter Mountain West deepens a lee trough over the Rockies Sunday and Monday, increasing southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible, alleviating slightly the hot and humid conditions with readings in the lower and middle 90s. The aforementioned upper trough ejects over the northern plains Monday evening and Tuesday, surging the cold front into north central KS in the overnight hours. Guidance continues to exhibit high confidence in this scenario and have raised pops into the likely category near the KS and NE border. Ample mixed layer CAPE and effective shear parameters near 40 kts could develop a few strong to severe storms over north central areas. This activity pushes south and east on Tuesday, spreading chances towards the entire CWA. Models differ some Tuesday evening onward as the frontal boundary hangs up across the area. Subtle impulses embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft signals multiple rounds of thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday evening. Temps hover near normal values in the lower 90s for highs and low 70s for overnight lows, likely to drop into the 80s by the end of the period as the frontal boundary shifts south of the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Low confidence in convection for this TAF cycle, but enough of a signal in several models to at least get a tempo group for late this afternoon, with shra/ts developing over central KS attm. Winds east shift slowly south and will be variable from storms and outflow in the area. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...Prieto AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An amplified upper level trough across the upper midwest early this morning will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Tonight. The upper flow across eastern KS will weaken and shift to the northwest through Tonight as an upper level ridge amplifies across the high plains. At the surface a weak cold front front extended from northwest MO, southwest through Topeka, then west southwest across western KS. An out flow boundary extended from northwest OK, northeast into south central KS, then extended east across southeast KS. North of the boundary a few showers and thunderstorms continued to develop across southeast KS early this morning. A complex of storms that developed across the northern TX PNHDL has amplified an MCV across southwest KS. Most models show the weak front becoming stationary south of the CWA through the mid morning hours with frontolysis occurring through the afternoon hours across western KS. The NAM and GFS models show the MCV over southwest KS shifting east across the southern counties of the CWA through the late morning and afternoon hours which may provide enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to develop. If these solution are accurate, then there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms south of I-70, beginning across the southwest counties during the late morning hours and expanding east across the southern half of the CWA during the early and mid afternoon hours. The mesocale models, such as the HRRR, WRF and RAP show the MCV weakening and no precip developing through the day. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s Tonight, all the numerical models show that any complex of storms that develop across eastern CO during the evening hours will track southeast across southwest KS into northern OK. There could be enough isentropic lift after mid night on the northern and eastern edge of the deeper moisture return across central and western KS for scattered elevate thunderstorms to develop across the southwest and southern counties of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The weekend will see slight chance POPs over the area to begin with. Weak isentropic lift sets up in the morning over northeastern Kansas on Saturday as weak shortwaves pass overhead into the day. Forcing is weak overall, so much of this could just result in enhanced cloud cover rather than any widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. There will still be plenty of instability with dewpoints still forecast to be in the upper 60s and low 70s. As a North Pac Low deepens and digs into the Pacific Northwest, mid to upper level ridging will amplify over the Central and Northern Plains into Sunday and should see mainly dry conditions set up over the region with good mixing into the afternoon. Therefore, expecting temps to rise into the low and possibly mid 90s. This will bring heat index values up to around or into the low 100s. Not anticipating headlines at this time for an advisory though. It may be something to watch if we can hold off more cloud cover and temps rise a bit more. Monday into the Monday night time frame, the North Pac Low will deepen and take on a negative tilt as it lifts into the Northern Plains. A modified cold boundary will move into the Central Plains and stall out as this system lifts into Central Canada. Greatest chance POPs will likely be overnight Monday as the best shear zone advects overhead with the mean trough. At least this appears to be the best chance for any organized storms to form. A strong EML will have also set up over the Central Plains, so it may be too capped for development to take place, but mainly elevated storms look like the best possibility which if they form could create some strong gusty winds and hail. Still difficult to eliminate precip chances out of subsequent periods as quasi-zonal flow regime sets up and weak impulses traverse overhead. Still looks like possibility remains for off and on showers and storms into the Friday time frame with a stationary boundary likely lingering over the Central Plains into the Mid-MS Valley. With no strong movement in the overall pattern, expecting temps to remain seasonal with heat index values around the upper 90s and 100 degree mark. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Low confidence in convection for this TAF cycle, but enough of a signal in several models to at least get a tempo group for late this afternoon, with shra/ts developing over central KS attm. Winds east shift slowly south and will be variable from storms and outflow in the area. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An amplified upper level trough across the upper midwest early this morning will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Tonight. The upper flow across eastern KS will weaken and shift to the northwest through Tonight as an upper level ridge amplifies across the high plains. At the surface a weak cold front front extended from northwest MO, southwest through Topeka, then west southwest across western KS. An out flow boundary extended from northwest OK, northeast into south central KS, then extended east across southeast KS. North of the boundary a few showers and thunderstorms continued to develop across southeast KS early this morning. A complex of storms that developed across the northern TX PNHDL has amplified an MCV across southwest KS. Most models show the weak front becoming stationary south of the CWA through the mid morning hours with frontolysis occurring through the afternoon hours across western KS. The NAM and GFS models show the MCV over southwest KS shifting east across the southern counties of the CWA through the late morning and afternoon hours which may provide enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to develop. If these solution are accurate, then there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms south of I-70, beginning across the southwest counties during the late morning hours and expanding east across the southern half of the CWA during the early and mid afternoon hours. The mesocale models, such as the HRRR, WRF and RAP show the MCV weakening and no precip developing through the day. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s Tonight, all the numerical models show that any complex of storms that develop across eastern CO during the evening hours will track southeast across southwest KS into northern OK. There could be enough isentropic lift after mid night on the northern and eastern edge of the deeper moisture return across central and western KS for scattered elevate thunderstorms to develop across the southwest and southern counties of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The weekend will see slight chance POPs over the area to begin with. Weak isentropic lift sets up in the morning over northeastern Kansas on Saturday as weak shortwaves pass overhead into the day. Forcing is weak overall, so much of this could just result in enhanced cloud cover rather than any widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. There will still be plenty of instability with dewpoints still forecast to be in the upper 60s and low 70s. As a North Pac Low deepens and digs into the Pacific Northwest, mid to upper level ridging will amplify over the Central and Northern Plains into Sunday and should see mainly dry conditions set up over the region with good mixing into the afternoon. Therefore, expecting temps to rise into the low and possibly mid 90s. This will bring heat index values up to around or into the low 100s. Not anticipating headlines at this time for an advisory though. It may be something to watch if we can hold off more cloud cover and temps rise a bit more. Monday into the Monday night time frame, the North Pac Low will deepen and take on a negative tilt as it lifts into the Northern Plains. A modified cold boundary will move into the Central Plains and stall out as this system lifts into Central Canada. Greatest chance POPs will likely be overnight Monday as the best shear zone advects overhead with the mean trough. At least this appears to be the best chance for any organized storms to form. A strong EML will have also set up over the Central Plains, so it may be too capped for development to take place, but mainly elevated storms look like the best possibility which if they form could create some strong gusty winds and hail. Still difficult to eliminate precip chances out of subsequent periods as quasi-zonal flow regime sets up and weak impulses traverse overhead. Still looks like possibility remains for off and on showers and storms into the Friday time frame with a stationary boundary likely lingering over the Central Plains into the Mid-MS Valley. With no strong movement in the overall pattern, expecting temps to remain seasonal with heat index values around the upper 90s and 100 degree mark. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Storms this morning will stay south of the terminals. There is a possibility for convection overnight, but for now the best chances stay south of the terminals. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 An amplified upper level trough across the upper midwest early this morning will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Tonight. The upper flow across eastern KS will weaken and shift to the northwest through Tonight as an upper level ridge amplifies across the high plains. At the surface a weak cold front front extended from northwest MO, southwest through Topeka, then west southwest across western KS. An out flow boundary extended from northwest OK, northeast into south central KS, then extended east across southeast KS. North of the boundary a few showers and thunderstorms continued to develop across southeast KS early this morning. A complex of storms that developed across the northern TX PNHDL has amplified an MCV across southwest KS. Most models show the weak front becoming stationary south of the CWA through the mid morning hours with frontolysis occurring through the afternoon hours across western KS. The NAM and GFS models show the MCV over southwest KS shifting east across the southern counties of the CWA through the late morning and afternoon hours which may provide enough ascent for showers and thunderstorms to develop. If these solution are accurate, then there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms south of I-70, beginning across the southwest counties during the late morning hours and expanding east across the southern half of the CWA during the early and mid afternoon hours. The mesocale models, such as the HRRR, WRF and RAP show the MCV weakening and no precip developing through the day. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s Tonight, all the numerical models show that any complex of storms that develop across eastern CO during the evening hours will track southeast across southwest KS into northern OK. There could be enough isentropic lift after mid night on the northern and eastern edge of the deeper moisture return across central and western KS for scattered elevate thunderstorms to develop across the southwest and southern counties of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The weekend will see slight chance POPs over the area to begin with. Weak isentropic lift sets up in the morning over northeastern Kansas on Saturday as weak shortwaves pass overhead into the day. Forcing is weak overall, so much of this could just result in enhanced cloud cover rather than any widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. There will still be plenty of instability with dewpoints still forecast to be in the upper 60s and low 70s. As a North Pac Low deepens and digs into the Pacific Northwest, mid to upper level ridging will amplify over the Central and Northern Plains into Sunday and should see mainly dry conditions set up over the region with good mixing into the afternoon. Therefore, expecting temps to rise into the low and possibly mid 90s. This will bring heat index values up to around or into the low 100s. Not anticipating headlines at this time for an advisory though. It may be something to watch if we can hold off more cloud cover and temps rise a bit more. Monday into the Monday night time frame, the North Pac Low will deepen and take on a negative tilt as it lifts into the Northern Plains. A modified cold boundary will move into the Central Plains and stall out as this system lifts into Central Canada. Greatest chance POPs will likely be overnight Monday as the best shear zone advects overhead with the mean trough. At least this appears to be the best chance for any organized storms to form. A strong EML will have also set up over the Central Plains, so it may be too capped for development to take place, but mainly elevated storms look like the best possibility which if they form could create some strong gusty winds and hail. Still difficult to eliminate precip chances out of subsequent periods as quasi-zonal flow regime sets up and weak impulses traverse overhead. Still looks like possibility remains for off and on showers and storms into the Friday time frame with a stationary boundary likely lingering over the Central Plains into the Mid-MS Valley. With no strong movement in the overall pattern, expecting temps to remain seasonal with heat index values around the upper 90s and 100 degree mark. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 VFR conditions should continue. Weak boundaries remain in the area but cooling boundary layer should keep convection largely in check. Should have plenty of high cloud and this will help minimize BR development. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
406 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .Discussion... Current upper level synopsis shows a ridge centered near the northern Texas panhandle and a trough over the eastern third of the country. A surface inflection of the Bermuda ridge does extend across Florida to the western Gulf of Mexico. Current convection has already begun to wane and will diminish over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. Many locations did get a brief cool down from showers and storms but that soil moisture may convert back into higher dewpoints overnight. Even though New Orleans dropped below 80 for the first time in several days after a thunderstorm today (it has since warmed back into the upper 80s) not sure the temperature will fall below 80 tonight. Decided to hold off on re-issuing the heat advisory to allow overnight shift to monitor lows in addition to thinking that there will be more coverage tomorrow. And speaking of the forecast Saturday...the upper ridge to the west that extends over the CWA will begin to weaken locally and retrograde westward. This decreased subsidence with possibly slightly more column moisture should result in more numerous showers and thunderstorms. This will moreso be the case going into Sunday as a weak trough develops from the Tennessee Valley, extending southwestward towards the CWA. Thus have increased pops on both days this weekend to 20- 40% Saturday and 50% Sunday. Not much change expected throughout next week in terms of rain chances. Daily afternoon pops should be 30-40% each day the local area will be under a shear zone between Bermuda ridge that moves into the western Atlantic and a trough moving east across the northern half of the country. MEFFER && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to dominate for the rest of this afternoon through Saturday morning. The only exceptions will be briefly lower conditions due isolated SHRA/TSRA, affecting KMSY, KNEW, KASD, KGPT and KHUM mainly through 23z. There may also be another round of MVFR to IFR conditions due to BR/light fog at KMCB late tonight/early Saturday morning. && .MARINE... Bermuda surface ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico will keep flow onshore throughout the forecast period. The local coastal waters will continue to see the typical diurnal wind increase/decrease as nocturnal winds rise to 10 to 15 knots which will carry over into the morning hours and then drop down the rest of the day closer to 10 knots or slightly less. This should continue into the weekend. Nocturnal sh/ts will also develop during the late night and early morning hours through the next several days. Winds will begin to shift to a more SE direction by Sunday as the ridge shifts northward. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 93 74 94 / 10 20 20 50 BTR 77 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 50 ASD 79 94 76 93 / 10 40 20 50 MSY 81 94 79 92 / 10 40 10 50 GPT 80 92 76 91 / 10 30 20 40 PQL 78 93 76 94 / 10 30 20 40 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ060>064. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 337 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... The upper air ridge across the ARKLATEX late this afternoon is gradually breaking down/shifting East away from the region, courtesy of upper air troughiness draped from the Great Lakes Region to across the Central Plains. Although the ridge is doing a decent job at keeping storm chances at bay, as shown by sea- breeze convection having been confined to Southern LA, but can not rule out a few showers making it to central LA later this aftn. Furthermore, will also need to pay close attention to Eastward propagating thunderstorm activity that have been plaguing portions of the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley most of the day, aided by a nearby cold front. If an outflow boundary shift South towards the region, it could serve as a focus for CI later this aftn/early evening as hinted at by the HRRR solution. Tonight appears to be the slightly better opportunity for precipitation especially for the Northern zones, as the Southern periphery of the UA trough swings across the area and provide a bit of large scale ascent. Otherwise, slightly gusty South to Southwest winds have prompted temps to warm into the 90s or 2 or so degrees above normal. Lack of beneficial rainfall within the last few weeks and a downslope wind component thus keeping temps hot, will lead to soils continuing its drying effects. This is especially seen across the Western zones as dewpoints are a few degrees lower than this time yesterday afternoon. It is still going to take some time for significant drying to take place but the process is underway. As the upper air ridge shifts to the Southeast CONUS this weekend, Northwest flow aloft will prevail and embedded disturbances within the flow aloft along with a slowly Southward sagging cold front, will lead to the return of precipitation chances, particularly across Northern and Eastern zones. The ridge is anticipated to make a return early next week thus encouraging the retreat of the nearby frontal boundary and hence diminishing chances for significant widespread precipitation. The only precipitation potential will be diurnally driven sea-breeze convection mid-late week as hinted at by long term solutions. Temperatures will remain at/above normal throughout the extended forecast though humidities will ever so slightly be lowering. So the question begs as to whether or not to extend the Heat Advisory beyond today. Highest dewpoints were noted across the Eastern zones late this aftn, coinciding with the highest heat indices and where a portion of the Heat Advisory is currently in effect. Tomorrow, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than today /albeit still warm/ given the exiting ua ridge corresponding to lowering 500 mb height fields. The soils will continue to dry and so will the humidity. Will therefore hold off on extending the Heat Advisory attm, but can not rule out heat indices still hovering around/slightly above 100 degrees across the Eastern zones. .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue to dominate the aviation forecast over the next 24 hrs. Some early morning low clouds ceilings may be observed in Deep East Texas...but elsewhere they will be scattered. Widely scattered shra/tsra activity may affect our Arkansas terminals tomorrow afternoon...but at this time the chances are too low to mention in the taf. Southerly winds will continue to prevail through the period. /11/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 77 96 / 10 10 10 20 MLU 77 94 76 94 / 10 30 20 30 DEQ 76 93 75 93 / 20 30 20 30 TXK 77 95 77 94 / 20 20 20 30 ELD 77 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 TYR 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 GGG 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 LFK 77 95 77 96 / 0 20 0 10 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ072-073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ151>153-165>167. && $$ 29/11 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 248 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We`ll start the week drier than normal with above average temperatures for July. A moisture increase later in the week will bring some thunderstorm activity back into the area, steadily increasing Thursday or Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The westerly flow on the southern fringe of a higher latitude regional trough continues to push the moisture out of our area. Precipitable water values are now down to around 1 inch, or about 70 percent of normal for July. Surface dew points are in the 40s to lower 50s, and our seasonal cicada bugs are starting to go silent. As is always the case with a break in the monsoon, our temperatures are quick to jump up, with our daytime highs running about 4 to 6 degrees above average for most of the coming week. The trough will phase eastward over the next 48 hours as the main low pushes slowly through northern tier states near the Canadian border. High pressure will build back in from Mexico as this happens. Initially that will mean temperatures heating up another degree or two around mid week, but it will also mean deeper moisture will start to push back this way from the south and southeast. Central and northern Sonora will quickly see larger scale organized convection by Wednesday, and then we will see a more determined push of moisture Thursday. Initially we`ll rely on surge and outflow activity to push storm formation deeper into our area late this week. Then, the monsoon should again push deeper into the state by late in the weekend into early next week as a strong high sets up shop again just east of the area. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z. VFR conditions through the period with a FEW-SCT clouds at 10-15k ft AGL this afternoon. Light sfc wind this morning becoming wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Expect stronger wind thru the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light, terrain driven wind will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Slightly above normal temperatures will occur over the next week. Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the International border Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Better rain chances will occur Friday and Saturday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph this afternoon and Monday afternoon near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the update this evening as dry and warm conditions continue through forecast. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday morning and continue through the day Sunday...causing a red flag warning to be issued for the northern parts Arizona`s high country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum AVIATION...Suk FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the update this evening as dry and warm conditions continue through forecast. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday morning and continue through the day Sunday...causing a red flag warning to be issued for the northern parts Arizona`s high country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum AVIATION...Suk FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 905 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail well into next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed near the Mexico border east of Nogales to the New Mexico border late today where there was just enough moisture available. They have since dissipated or moved off to the south and skies will clear off for the remainder of the night. A drier westerly flow developing in response to an abnormally strong (for the season) low pressure system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week and likely only near the international border area. Thanks to the drier conditions and limited cloud cover afternoon temperatures will be several degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period. Surface winds will be light and terrain driven and then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...With westerly flow in place across the region, dry conditions will prevail through Thursday with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 819 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Stronger than normal westerly flow will subside this evening. Onset of the easterly flow is expected around 11z at KPHX. Breezy conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Winds will subside overnight, though gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 255 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will persist into this evening and develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...KD FIRE WESTERH...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 158 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...To Aviation Discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1235 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites, and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south, along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our cwa by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70- mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 921 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models promise that low pressure will remain centered over the Pacific Northwest with high pressure stretching across Texas/northern Mexico into next weekend. This pattern will continue to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather. The only real concern weather wise is a heightened fire weather threat on Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough will brush Arizona bringing southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward each day. The strongest of these winds will be on Sunday where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Looking to the future...A few model runs hinting at the return of the monsoon by late next weekend but others continue the dry weather. Keep your fingers crossed. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin AVIATION...KD/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 830 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Another very quiet morning across our cwa as light westerly flow through the column continues to keep monsoon moisture well off to our south and east. Very warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500mb temp -5.7C on the 12z KPSR sounding) and lingering low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints near 50 degrees) helped to keep overnight lows up a bit across south-central AZ this morning, with Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting a low of 87. A dry forecast is still on tap for today with highs across the lower deserts still forecast to end up in the 108-112 degree range. Based on current trends, inherited forecasts are still looking good, and no updates are planned at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 435 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 301 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 256 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 940 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far southeastern sections Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week with above average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening were mainly across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. As of 930 pm activity had ended across the areas with debris cloud cover across eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. PW values this evening still holding above 1" from Tucson south and southeast. Will run out a quick update for overnight trends. Lowering PW values on Saturday with upper high over SW New Mexico will limit any thunderstorm activity to along the International border from Nogales east and across the White mountains. Highs on Saturday similar or slightly warmer than today. Check previous discussion below for details on the remainder of the forecast package through next Friday. Definitely not monsoonal like. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z. Scattered debris cloud cover from KTUS S and SE will continue to slowly dissipate. VFR conditions will occur Saturday, except for a few -TSRA/-SHRA NE of KSAD and across the Chiricahua Mountains NE of KDUG. SFC wind Saturday afternoon wly/nwly at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. The strongest wind will be near KSAD. Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few thunderstorms may occur Saturday afternoon across the White Mountains northeast of Safford, and across the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern Cochise County. Dry conditions will then prevail Saturday night through next Friday. 20-foot winds Sunday and Monday may approach 20 mph in some locales. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Increasing westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday due to a fairly tight mid-level gradient will continue the drying process. This pattern should also translate into gusty generally westerly winds during the afternoon hours. However, wind speeds will remain below wind advisory criteria. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical Tuesday through Friday with depicting a sprawling high pressure ridge aloft to encompass the southwestern CONUS. Have noted that the GFS was more robust versus the ECMWF/CMC with the depiction of light liquid rain amounts to encroach upon far southeastern sections periodically Wednesday thru Friday. Given the progged synoptic pattern, have opted for the drier ECMWF/CMC solutions for this forecast package. Thus, expect dry conditions to continue across southeast Arizona during the middle and latter part of next week. Expect only very minor daily temp changes Saturday through next Friday, with high temps to generally be at least a few degs below normal through the period. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 900 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon, with little or no chance for rainfall. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above, normal through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Early this evening, deep southwest flow aloft was present over all but far southeast Arizona, as deep upper troffing pushed into the Pacific Northwest coast, shunting the main high center southeast of Arizona and setting up stronger west to southwest flow aloft into the desert southwest. This deep southwest flow was easily seen in the area raobs, most prominent in Flagstaff and to slightly lesser an extent in Phoenix. The west flow has continued to erode moisture over the central deserts, the PWAT in Phoenix this evening was down to just 0.73 inches and surface dewpoints over the central deserts at 8 pm were mostly in the middle 40s - mostly down 3-10 degrees from 24 hours ago. IR imagery at 8 pm showed clear skies area wide. One small disturbance rotating around the upper high to our southeast had pushed up into far southeast Arizona this evening, increasing PWAT at Tucson to almost 1.3 inches and could be seen in the TUS sounding as a layer of southeast winds near 500 mb. The overall deep west/southwest flow impinging on the rest of Arizona ahead of the Pacific northwest troffing will keep this feature well to our southeast and it should not affect our weather tonight. For the rest of the night we can expect generally clear skies and gradually decreasing west winds along with mild to warm overnight low temperatures. Forecasts look to be in good shape and no updates are planned. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Increasing westerly flow ahead of a deep upper trof is expected to continue to scour out any remaining monsoon moisture over extreme SE and eastern AZ during this period. The latest HRRR model run keeps all convective activity confined to areas to the south and east of Tucson and over the white Mountains, well outside of our CWA this afternoon/evening, with even less activity on tap on Saturday. 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range, 500 mb temps in the -4C to -5C range, along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rise a bit above normal again on Saturday, with lower desert highs mostly in the 108-112 degree range. Sunday through next Friday... Further drying is expected across the region during this period as a very deep, and cold upper low center (for July) moves across the Northern Rockies during the early part of next week, bringing a chance for some rare mid-summer snowfall to the higher elevations of MT/WY. To the south of this low center, a band of anomalously strong westerlies are expected to move across the Great Basin/northern AZ region Sun-Tue. 700mb winds are expected to reach 30 kts, or even greater across parts of northern AZ, which are in the 99% (or higher) climatological percentile for this time of year, according to the NAEFS percentile tables. The main impact from this belt of very strong winds will be to mix drier air down to the sfc across the region, with sfc dewpoints likely falling into the 30s, or even 20s across most of our CWA. The dry airmass, combined with a bit of cooling aloft, will likely allow many outlying lower desert locations to see lows in the 70s each night. These cooler temperatures, combined with the lower RH`s will result in the nights feeling noticeably more pleasant than what we typically see this time of year. Highs will be near or just a bit above normal, mostly in the 105-110 degree range across the lower deserts. PWATS across the region will also be well below normal, in the 0.50-0.75 inch range, which is 1-2 SD below normal. Needless to say, chances for rainfall/thunderstorms during this entire period will be basically at zero as our extended break in the monsoon continues. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 835 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Another very quiet morning in this long break in the monsoon across the region today. Latest IR satellite imagery is showing the entire state of AZ almost completely devoid of cloudiness, with northern Sonora Mexico also seeing clear skies as well. Westerly flow associated with a strong upper low center that is now moving inland into the Pac NW has pushed our typical monsoon moisture well off to the south and east. At the surface, lows this morning across South- Central AZ remain on the warm side, with Phoenix Sky Harbor seeing a low of 87, likely being kept up by a weak moisture seep from the south that has kept the sfc dewpoints a bit elevated as well, up into the low 50s. The drier air that has already moved into se CA and sw AZ is expected to spread into south-central AZ this afternoon as westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen, with dewpoints likely to fall into the 30s by then. Other than some minor adjustments to the hourly grids to reflect current trends, inherited forecasts are looking good, and no updates are planned at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 453 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 453 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 404 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A low pressure system moving through the western states today will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to the northern third of the state. Early signs the dry spell in Arizona may come to an end by next weekend with precipitation chances in the forecast, our confidence remains only fair on the timing this far out. && .DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure system will move through the western states today bringing stronger gusty winds to northern Arizona. Dry humidity levels along with elevated wind speeds will cause critical fire weather conditions over the northern third of Arizona including most areas north of the Interstate 40 corridor to the Utah border. A Red Flag Warning remain in effect for these areas today. The long wave trough along the west coast and the subtropical ridge to our south will keep us in this dry weather pattern through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in no significant precipitation through the upcoming work week. A great time to plan outdoor activities with an absence of summer thunderstorms. We continue to see early signs of the dry spell coming to an end by next weekend as the subtropical ridge migrates northward which opens the door for a southerly Monsoon moisture tap. This translates into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The American GFS model is more aggressive with this pattern shift and the European weather model delays the onset of significant precipitation chances by a day. Our timing confidence in this return to a more wet Monsoon pattern remains only fair this far out in the forecast calendar. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for this forecast period. Sw sfc winds 15-25g35kts over much of the area from 17z-02z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be today, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 404 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A low pressure system moving through the western states today will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to the northern third of the state. Early signs the dry spell in Arizona may come to an end by next weekend with precipitation chances in the forecast, our confidence remains only fair on the timing this far out. && .DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure system will move through the western states today bringing stronger gusty winds to northern Arizona. Dry humidity levels along with elevated wind speeds will cause critical fire weather conditions over the northern third of Arizona including most areas north of the Interstate 40 corridor to the Utah border. A Red Flag Warning remain in effect for these areas today. The long wave trough along the west coast and the subtropical ridge to our south will keep us in this dry weather pattern through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in no significant precipitation through the upcoming work week. A great time to plan outdoor activities with an absence of summer thunderstorms. We continue to see early signs of the dry spell coming to an end by next weekend as the subtropical ridge migrates northward which opens the door for a southerly Monsoon moisture tap. This translates into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The American GFS model is more aggressive with this pattern shift and the European weather model delays the onset of significant precipitation chances by a day. Our timing confidence in this return to a more wet Monsoon pattern remains only fair this far out in the forecast calendar. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for this forecast period. Sw sfc winds 15-25g35kts over much of the area from 17z-02z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be today, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 310 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Stronger than normal westerly flow will subside this evening. Onset of the easterly flow is expected around 11z at KPHX. Breezy conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Winds will subside overnight, though gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 248 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We`ll start the week drier than normal with above average temperatures for July. A moisture increase later in the week will bring some thunderstorm activity back into the area, steadily increasing Thursday or Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The westerly flow on the southern fringe of a higher latitude regional trough continues to push the moisture out of our area. Precipitable water values are now down to around 1 inch, or about 70 percent of normal for July. Surface dew points are in the 40s to lower 50s, and our seasonal cicada bugs are starting to go silent. As is always the case with a break in the monsoon, our temperatures are quick to jump up, with our daytime highs running about 4 to 6 degrees above average for most of the coming week. The trough will phase eastward over the next 48 hours as the main low pushes slowly through northern tier states near the Canadian border. High pressure will build back in from Mexico as this happens. Initially that will mean temperatures heating up another degree or two around mid week, but it will also mean deeper moisture will start to push back this way from the south and southeast. Central and northern Sonora will quickly see larger scale organized convection by Wednesday, and then we will see a more determined push of moisture Thursday. Initially we`ll rely on surge and outflow activity to push storm formation deeper into our area late this week. Then, the monsoon should again push deeper into the state by late in the weekend into early next week as a strong high sets up shop again just east of the area. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z. VFR conditions through the period with a FEW-SCT clouds at 10-15k ft AGL this afternoon. Light sfc wind this morning becoming wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Expect stronger wind thru the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light, terrain driven wind will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Slightly above normal temperatures will occur over the next week. Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the International border Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Better rain chances will occur Friday and Saturday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph this afternoon and Monday afternoon near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the update this evening as dry and warm conditions continue through forecast. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday morning and continue through the day Sunday...causing a red flag warning to be issued for the northern parts Arizona`s high country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum AVIATION...Suk FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the update this evening as dry and warm conditions continue through forecast. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday morning and continue through the day Sunday...causing a red flag warning to be issued for the northern parts Arizona`s high country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum AVIATION...Suk FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 905 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail well into next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed near the Mexico border east of Nogales to the New Mexico border late today where there was just enough moisture available. They have since dissipated or moved off to the south and skies will clear off for the remainder of the night. A drier westerly flow developing in response to an abnormally strong (for the season) low pressure system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week and likely only near the international border area. Thanks to the drier conditions and limited cloud cover afternoon temperatures will be several degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period. Surface winds will be light and terrain driven and then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...With westerly flow in place across the region, dry conditions will prevail through Thursday with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 819 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Stronger than normal westerly flow will subside this evening. Onset of the easterly flow is expected around 11z at KPHX. Breezy conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Winds will subside overnight, though gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 255 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will persist into this evening and develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...KD FIRE WESTERH...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 158 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...To Aviation Discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1235 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites, and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south, along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our cwa by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70- mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 921 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models promise that low pressure will remain centered over the Pacific Northwest with high pressure stretching across Texas/northern Mexico into next weekend. This pattern will continue to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather. The only real concern weather wise is a heightened fire weather threat on Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough will brush Arizona bringing southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward each day. The strongest of these winds will be on Sunday where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Looking to the future...A few model runs hinting at the return of the monsoon by late next weekend but others continue the dry weather. Keep your fingers crossed. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin AVIATION...KD/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 830 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Another very quiet morning across our cwa as light westerly flow through the column continues to keep monsoon moisture well off to our south and east. Very warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500mb temp -5.7C on the 12z KPSR sounding) and lingering low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints near 50 degrees) helped to keep overnight lows up a bit across south-central AZ this morning, with Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting a low of 87. A dry forecast is still on tap for today with highs across the lower deserts still forecast to end up in the 108-112 degree range. Based on current trends, inherited forecasts are still looking good, and no updates are planned at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 435 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 301 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 256 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 940 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far southeastern sections Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week with above average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening were mainly across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. As of 930 pm activity had ended across the areas with debris cloud cover across eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. PW values this evening still holding above 1" from Tucson south and southeast. Will run out a quick update for overnight trends. Lowering PW values on Saturday with upper high over SW New Mexico will limit any thunderstorm activity to along the International border from Nogales east and across the White mountains. Highs on Saturday similar or slightly warmer than today. Check previous discussion below for details on the remainder of the forecast package through next Friday. Definitely not monsoonal like. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z. Scattered debris cloud cover from KTUS S and SE will continue to slowly dissipate. VFR conditions will occur Saturday, except for a few -TSRA/-SHRA NE of KSAD and across the Chiricahua Mountains NE of KDUG. SFC wind Saturday afternoon wly/nwly at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. The strongest wind will be near KSAD. Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few thunderstorms may occur Saturday afternoon across the White Mountains northeast of Safford, and across the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern Cochise County. Dry conditions will then prevail Saturday night through next Friday. 20-foot winds Sunday and Monday may approach 20 mph in some locales. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Increasing westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday due to a fairly tight mid-level gradient will continue the drying process. This pattern should also translate into gusty generally westerly winds during the afternoon hours. However, wind speeds will remain below wind advisory criteria. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical Tuesday through Friday with depicting a sprawling high pressure ridge aloft to encompass the southwestern CONUS. Have noted that the GFS was more robust versus the ECMWF/CMC with the depiction of light liquid rain amounts to encroach upon far southeastern sections periodically Wednesday thru Friday. Given the progged synoptic pattern, have opted for the drier ECMWF/CMC solutions for this forecast package. Thus, expect dry conditions to continue across southeast Arizona during the middle and latter part of next week. Expect only very minor daily temp changes Saturday through next Friday, with high temps to generally be at least a few degs below normal through the period. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 900 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon, with little or no chance for rainfall. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above, normal through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Early this evening, deep southwest flow aloft was present over all but far southeast Arizona, as deep upper troffing pushed into the Pacific Northwest coast, shunting the main high center southeast of Arizona and setting up stronger west to southwest flow aloft into the desert southwest. This deep southwest flow was easily seen in the area raobs, most prominent in Flagstaff and to slightly lesser an extent in Phoenix. The west flow has continued to erode moisture over the central deserts, the PWAT in Phoenix this evening was down to just 0.73 inches and surface dewpoints over the central deserts at 8 pm were mostly in the middle 40s - mostly down 3-10 degrees from 24 hours ago. IR imagery at 8 pm showed clear skies area wide. One small disturbance rotating around the upper high to our southeast had pushed up into far southeast Arizona this evening, increasing PWAT at Tucson to almost 1.3 inches and could be seen in the TUS sounding as a layer of southeast winds near 500 mb. The overall deep west/southwest flow impinging on the rest of Arizona ahead of the Pacific northwest troffing will keep this feature well to our southeast and it should not affect our weather tonight. For the rest of the night we can expect generally clear skies and gradually decreasing west winds along with mild to warm overnight low temperatures. Forecasts look to be in good shape and no updates are planned. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Increasing westerly flow ahead of a deep upper trof is expected to continue to scour out any remaining monsoon moisture over extreme SE and eastern AZ during this period. The latest HRRR model run keeps all convective activity confined to areas to the south and east of Tucson and over the white Mountains, well outside of our CWA this afternoon/evening, with even less activity on tap on Saturday. 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range, 500 mb temps in the -4C to -5C range, along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rise a bit above normal again on Saturday, with lower desert highs mostly in the 108-112 degree range. Sunday through next Friday... Further drying is expected across the region during this period as a very deep, and cold upper low center (for July) moves across the Northern Rockies during the early part of next week, bringing a chance for some rare mid-summer snowfall to the higher elevations of MT/WY. To the south of this low center, a band of anomalously strong westerlies are expected to move across the Great Basin/northern AZ region Sun-Tue. 700mb winds are expected to reach 30 kts, or even greater across parts of northern AZ, which are in the 99% (or higher) climatological percentile for this time of year, according to the NAEFS percentile tables. The main impact from this belt of very strong winds will be to mix drier air down to the sfc across the region, with sfc dewpoints likely falling into the 30s, or even 20s across most of our CWA. The dry airmass, combined with a bit of cooling aloft, will likely allow many outlying lower desert locations to see lows in the 70s each night. These cooler temperatures, combined with the lower RH`s will result in the nights feeling noticeably more pleasant than what we typically see this time of year. Highs will be near or just a bit above normal, mostly in the 105-110 degree range across the lower deserts. PWATS across the region will also be well below normal, in the 0.50-0.75 inch range, which is 1-2 SD below normal. Needless to say, chances for rainfall/thunderstorms during this entire period will be basically at zero as our extended break in the monsoon continues. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
422 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Cool and moist conditions will persist across the interior of northwestern California through this evening, with a few light showers possible today, mainly across northern Humboldt and Del Norte counties, and maybe into the Trinity horn. For the remainder of the week, dry conditions will prevail area-wide with temperatures increasing across the interior. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) The much talked about storm system continues to slowly churn south just offshore from the Oregon coast. Forcing aloft associated with this is starting to increase across northern portions of the forecast area, with showers development increasing on the latest Doppler radar loops. As has been the case the past couple of days, northern Humboldt and Del Norte areas seem to be the favored spots, especially along the coast. However, the radar loop also shows some very small/light showers trying to make a run at locations south and east of there. Have doubts that any of these showers will survive the trip into Mendocino and Trinity counties due to lower surface dewpoints, but some light drizzle isn`t totally impossible here. Otherwise, the system will begin to depart the region today, with any shower activity ending by mid to late afternoon. The one exception to this could be far Del Norte County, as some wrap around moisture could clip these areas. .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) A return to a summertime pattern is on tap for the remainder of the week. A zonal flow aloft will develop with surface high pressure strengthening across the eastern Pacific. This will yield a classic northerly flow setup along the coast, with episodic morning stratus/fog possible. Farther inland, increasing temperatures under mainly clear skies will dominate your weather this week. /PD && .AVIATION...Low clouds continue across the Redwood Coast and inland to W Trinity County with patches of very light rain and drizzle. Skies elsewhere are mostly clear. The HRRR model keeps patchy precip around KACV through about 14Z while KCEC may see light precip into the afternoon hours. Clouds are expected to erode over the interior with daytime heating, but broken low cloudiness will likely hold over the coastal terminals. As expected, N winds have remained up at KUKI overnight. These winds will gradually subside through the morning hours. Elsewhere, winds will be generally light. /SEC && .MARINE...Light winds will continue through today with the wind direction more southerly N of Cape Mendocino this morning ahead of a frontal trough. N winds are expected to return by tonight, and a small craft advisory continues for the S offshore waters during that time period. Winds will need to be monitored in the S nearshore zone, but at this time, wind speeds are progged to remain just below advisory criteria. More widespread northerlies are progged by the middle of the this week as high pressure over the E Pacific rebuilds toward the area and the inland thermal trough sharpens. /SEC && .EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA Follow us on facebook and twitter at: http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 300 PM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with dry and breezy weather on the way. A weather disturbance brushing Arizona today and Monday will bring hazardous fire weather conditions to portions of northern Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...Deep layer high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico through Friday. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. There will be a heightened fire weather threat from this afternoon into Monday due to a passing weather disturbance producing stronger winds. Look for southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward until around sunset. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 800 PM MST primarily from Interstate-40 northward. Behind the disturbance on Monday, portions of northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 30 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northeast corner of the state. Next weekend...Models show monsoon moisture creeping northward as a strong high pressure system builds over the continental and southwest United States. Doesn`t look like a big push just a slight chance of thunderstorms over the White Mountains next Saturday and Sunday. We`ll keep you posted as details come into focus. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will persist into this evening and develop again Monday afternoon, especially across NE Arizona. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Windy and dry conditions will persist early this week. The windiest day will be today, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the northern portions of the district. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for portions of northeastern Arizona on Monday. Wednesday through Friday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 1) Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening For AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. 2) Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening FOR AZZ111>114-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...KD FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 251 PM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Drier than normal with above average temperatures for July can be anticipated the next several days. A moisture increase later in the week will bring some thunderstorm activity back into the area, steadily increasing Thursday or Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest today will track through the northern tier states early this week. The resulting westerly flow on the tail end of this system will keep the deeper moisture needed for thunderstorms east and south of the area. The drier airmass will also help keep daytime temperatures elevated above normal readings through much of the week. Medium range models hint at the deeper moisture returning later in the week. That said, the forecast calls for an upswing in thunderstorm activity around Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z. VFR conditions through the period with a FEW-SCT clouds at 10-15k ft AGL this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Surface winds will into early this evening will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts with stronger wind thru the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light, terrain driven wind will then resume during the overnight hours with wly/nwly winds 10-15 kts with higher gusts resuming by midday Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Slightly above normal temperatures will occur through the upcoming week. Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the International border Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Better rain chances will occur Friday and Saturday. 20-ft westerly winds will approach 20 mph this afternoon and Monday afternoon near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 223 PM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .UPDATE...To Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Little change in the forecast thinking for this period. A series of deep upper-level trofs that will be moving eastward across the Pacific NW/northern Great Basin are expected to keep the Desert Southwest under deep westerly flow aloft through the entire period. This westerly flow is expected to keep monsoon moisture well to our south, over northern Mexico. The only day when significant moisture could encroach at all into AZ appears to be Wednesday night/early Thursday, when the GFS shows an inverted trof moving westward across northern Mexico. This inverted trof will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity down there (if the GFS is right), with outflows from these storms perhaps triggering a few storms over far SE AZ (mainly south and east of Tucson). However, it does not appear that this activity (if it does develop), would impact our CWA at this time. As far as high temperatures are concerned, they are expected to remain slightly above normal, mainly in the 107-112 degree range across the lower deserts, under mostly clear skies, with 500mb heights remaining mostly in the 590-594dm range. Overnight lows will remain mostly in the 75-85 degree range across the lower deserts. Sunday and Monday... All of the global model suites now are in basic agreement that at least some return of monsoon moisture is likely during this period, as strong high pressure aloft builds over the Central Plains, pushing the main band of westerlies back off to our north. However, considerable differences in the time/intensity of the monsoon return still remain between the models and from run-to-run within the model suites. Due to all this uncertainty, just putting in some slight chance pops for now in the grids over the higher terrain of South- Central AZ. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will support elevated and at times gusty west winds into the Phoenix area terminals this afternoon. This system will spread drier air into the area, keeping skies clear and precip chances non-existent. Gusts of 15 to 20kts will be possible, with west winds lingering overnight before returning to typical easterly headings towards sunrise Monday AM. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to the north will support increasing west to southwest winds for KIPL and KBLH into this evening and overnight. Strong ridgetop winds over the Peninsular Ranges to the west of KIPL could produce some rotor winds and/or mountain wave winds with very localized gusts in the KNJK and KIPL on and off into the evening. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Winds will begin to decrease in speed towards sunrise, becoming light and variable for a few hour window during the early Monday morning hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wednesday through Sunday... The Monsoonal break will continue in terms of storm activity for much of the Districts, however forecast models do indicate some moisture returning in the mid-atmospheric levels possibly by Wednesday. The richest moisture remains along and south of the International Border, but at least introduces the possibility for increasing afternoon and evening cloudiness in the form of debris clouds. Temperatures will continue their at or above normal trends but daytime humidities will improve slightly, generally staying above 10 percent readings for the lower desert elevations and upper teens for the mountainous areas. Occasional breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. More noticeable intrusion of Monsoonal moisture from the south-southeast could begin over the late weekend, but how this will result in high- based convection and/or any hopes of wetting rains is too far out to determine at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte
Area Forecast Discussion.. National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 135 PM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 ...Correction to issue time... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Little change in the forecast thinking for this period. A series of deep upper-level trofs that will be moving eastward across the pacific nw/northern Great Basin is expected to keep the Desert Southwest under deep westerly flow aloft through the entire period. This westerly flow is expected to keep monsoon moisture well to our south, over northern Mexico. The only day when significant moisture could encroach at all into AZ appears to be Wednesday night/early Thursday, when the gfs shows an inverted trof moving westward across northern Mexico. This inverted trof will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity down there (if the gfs is right), with outflows from these storms perhaps triggering a few storms over far se AZ (mainly south and east of Tucson). However, it does not appear that this activity (if it does develop), would impact our cwa at this time. As far as high temperatures are concerned, they are expected to remain slightly above normal, mainly in the 107-112 degree range across the lower deserts, under mostly clear skies, with 500mb heights remaining mostly in the 590-594dm range. Overnight lows will remain mostly in the 75-85 degree range across the lower deserts. Sunday and Monday... All of the global model suites now are in basic agreement that at least some return of monsoon moisture is likely during this period, as strong high pressure aloft builds over the Central Plains, pushing the main band of westerlies back off to our north. However, considerable differences in the time/intensity of the monsoon return still remain between the models and from run-to-run within the model suites. Due to all this uncertainty, just putting in some slight chance pops for now in the grids over the higher terrain of South- Central AZ. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 135 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Little change in the forecast thinking for this period. A series of deep upper-level trofs that will be moving eastward across the pacific nw/northern Great Basin is expected to keep the Desert Southwest under deep westerly flow aloft through the entire period. This westerly flow is expected to keep monsoon moisture well to our south, over northern Mexico. The only day when significant moisture could encroach at all into AZ appears to be Wednesday night/early Thursday, when the gfs shows an inverted trof moving westward across northern Mexico. This inverted trof will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity down there (if the gfs is right), with outflows from these storms perhaps triggering a few storms over far se AZ (mainly south and east of Tucson). However, it does not appear that this activity (if it does develop), would impact our cwa at this time. As far as high temperatures are concerned, they are expected to remain slightly above normal, mainly in the 107-112 degree range across the lower deserts, under mostly clear skies, with 500mb heights remaining mostly in the 590-594dm range. Overnight lows will remain mostly in the 75-85 degree range across the lower deserts. Sunday and Monday... All of the global model suites now are in basic agreement that at least some return of monsoon moisture is likely during this period, as strong high pressure aloft builds over the Central Plains, pushing the main band of westerlies back off to our north. However, considerable differences in the time/intensity of the monsoon return still remain between the models and from run-to-run within the model suites. Due to all this uncertainty, just putting in some slight chance pops for now in the grids over the higher terrain of South- Central AZ. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 949 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Drier than normal with above average temperatures for July can be anticipated the next several days. A moisture increase later in the week will bring some thunderstorm activity back into the area, steadily increasing Thursday or Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest today will track through the northern tier states early this week. The resulting westerly flow on the tail end of this system will keep the deeper moisture needed for thunderstorms east and south of the area. The drier airmass will also help keep daytime temperatures elevated above normal readings through much of the week. Medium range models hint at the deeper moisture returning later in the week. Please refer to the additional sections for more details. No updates necessary this morning. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/18Z. VFR conditions through the period with a FEW-SCT clouds at 10-15k ft AGL this afternoon. Light sfc wind this morning becoming wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Expect stronger wind thru the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light, terrain driven wind will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Slightly above normal temperatures will occur over the next week. Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the International border Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Better rain chances will occur Friday and Saturday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph this afternoon and Monday afternoon near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...The westerly flow on the southern fringe of a higher latitude regional trough continues to push the moisture outof our area. Precipitable water values are now down to around 1inch, or about 70 percent of normal for July. Surface dew points arein the 40s to lower 50s, and our seasonal cicada bugs are starting to go silent. As is always the case with a break in the monsoon, our temperatures are quick to jump up, with our daytime highs running about 4 to 6 degrees above average for most of the coming week. The trough will phase eastward over the next 48 hours as the main low pushes slowly through northern tier states near the Canadian border. High pressure will build back in from Mexico as this happens. Initially that will mean temperatures heating up another degree or two around mid week, but it will also mean deeper moisture will start to push back this way from the south and southeast. Central and northern Sonora will quickly see larger scale organized convection by Wednesday, and then we will see a more determined push of moisture Thursday. Initially we`ll rely on surge and outflow activity to push storm formation deeper into our area late this week. Then, the monsoon should again push deeper into the state by late in the weekend into early next week as a strong high sets up shop again just east of the area. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 918 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A low pressure system moving through the western states today will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to the northern third of the state. && .DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure system will move through the western states today bringing stronger gusty winds to northern Arizona. Dry humidity levels along with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40 mph will hazardous fire weather conditions over portions of northern Arizona with the strongest winds from Interstate-40 northward. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for these areas today. The long wave trough along the west coast and the subtropical ridge to our south will keep us in this dry weather pattern through next Saturday. We continue to have high confidence in no significant precipitation through the upcoming week. A great time to plan outdoor activities as monsoon moisture remains to the south. By late next weekend...models show the potential return of monsoon moisture as high pressure builds back over the southwest. The GFS shows that the return could be as early as Sunday with the European model indicating an the arrival a couple days later. We`ll keep you posted. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for this forecast period. Southwest surface winds 15-25G35KTS over much of the area through 02Z Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin AVIATION...KD/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...KD/Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 918 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A low pressure system moving through the western states today will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to the northern third of the state. && .DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure system will move through the western states today bringing stronger gusty winds to northern Arizona. Dry humidity levels along with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40 mph will hazardous fire weather conditions over portions of northern Arizona with the strongest winds from Interstate-40 northward. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for these areas today. The long wave trough along the west coast and the subtropical ridge to our south will keep us in this dry weather pattern through next Saturday. We continue to have high confidence in no significant precipitation through the upcoming week. A great time to plan outdoor activities as monsoon moisture remains to the south. By late next weekend...models show the potential return of monsoon moisture as high pressure builds back over the southwest. The GFS shows that the return could be as early as Sunday with the European model indicating an the arrival a couple days later. We`ll keep you posted. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for this forecast period. Southwest surface winds 15-25G35KTS over much of the area through 02Z Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin AVIATION...KD/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...KD/Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 835 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Another very quiet morning in this long break in the monsoon across the region today. Latest IR satellite imagery is showing the entire state of AZ almost completely devoid of cloudiness, with northern Sonora Mexico also seeing clear skies as well. Westerly flow associated with a strong upper low center that is now moving inland into the Pac NW has pushed our typical monsoon moisture well off to the south and east. At the surface, lows this morning across South- Central AZ remain on the warm side, with Phoenix Sky Harbor seeing a low of 87, likely being kept up by a weak moisture seep from the south that has kept the sfc dewpoints a bit elevated as well, up into the low 50s. The drier air that has already moved into se CA and sw AZ is expected to spread into south-central AZ this afternoon as westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen, with dewpoints likely to fall into the 30s by then. Other than some minor adjustments to the hourly grids to reflect current trends, inherited forecasts are looking good, and no updates are planned at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 453 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 453 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Continued clear skies and dry conditions through Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and evening, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Afternoon and early evening gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 404 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A low pressure system moving through the western states today will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to the northern third of the state. Early signs the dry spell in Arizona may come to an end by next weekend with precipitation chances in the forecast, our confidence remains only fair on the timing this far out. && .DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure system will move through the western states today bringing stronger gusty winds to northern Arizona. Dry humidity levels along with elevated wind speeds will cause critical fire weather conditions over the northern third of Arizona including most areas north of the Interstate 40 corridor to the Utah border. A Red Flag Warning remain in effect for these areas today. The long wave trough along the west coast and the subtropical ridge to our south will keep us in this dry weather pattern through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in no significant precipitation through the upcoming work week. A great time to plan outdoor activities with an absence of summer thunderstorms. We continue to see early signs of the dry spell coming to an end by next weekend as the subtropical ridge migrates northward which opens the door for a southerly Monsoon moisture tap. This translates into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The American GFS model is more aggressive with this pattern shift and the European weather model delays the onset of significant precipitation chances by a day. Our timing confidence in this return to a more wet Monsoon pattern remains only fair this far out in the forecast calendar. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for this forecast period. Sw sfc winds 15-25g35kts over much of the area from 17z-02z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be today, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 404 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A low pressure system moving through the western states today will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to the northern third of the state. Early signs the dry spell in Arizona may come to an end by next weekend with precipitation chances in the forecast, our confidence remains only fair on the timing this far out. && .DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure system will move through the western states today bringing stronger gusty winds to northern Arizona. Dry humidity levels along with elevated wind speeds will cause critical fire weather conditions over the northern third of Arizona including most areas north of the Interstate 40 corridor to the Utah border. A Red Flag Warning remain in effect for these areas today. The long wave trough along the west coast and the subtropical ridge to our south will keep us in this dry weather pattern through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in no significant precipitation through the upcoming work week. A great time to plan outdoor activities with an absence of summer thunderstorms. We continue to see early signs of the dry spell coming to an end by next weekend as the subtropical ridge migrates northward which opens the door for a southerly Monsoon moisture tap. This translates into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The American GFS model is more aggressive with this pattern shift and the European weather model delays the onset of significant precipitation chances by a day. Our timing confidence in this return to a more wet Monsoon pattern remains only fair this far out in the forecast calendar. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for this forecast period. Sw sfc winds 15-25g35kts over much of the area from 17z-02z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be today, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 310 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest this week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday... Weather balloon soundings across AZ Saturday evening showed drier air spread into the region from the west. Remnant monsoon moisture was finally pushed out of southeast AZ and into northwest Mexico. Dry air will continue to result in clear skies with above normal afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Wednesday through Sunday... A slow return of monsoon moisture from Mexico, into the southern AZ is expected this period. Models forecast the 500 mb high center to position itself near or just west of El Paso Wed through Fri. This will result in some mid level clouds, from increasing Mexican thunderstorms, to circulate into portions of south central and southeast AZ for warmer nights. Models this period are forecasting a return to more seasonal mid level temperatures, and increasing upper level deformation along the far southeast AZ/Mexico border. This will result in more widespread convection from time to time, with greater moisture flux into southern AZ by late in the week and weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms was introduced over parts of our mountainous southern Gila County zone 24 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Stronger than normal westerly flow will subside this evening. Onset of the easterly flow is expected around 11z at KPHX. Breezy conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Winds will subside overnight, though gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 248 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We`ll start the week drier than normal with above average temperatures for July. A moisture increase later in the week will bring some thunderstorm activity back into the area, steadily increasing Thursday or Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The westerly flow on the southern fringe of a higher latitude regional trough continues to push the moisture out of our area. Precipitable water values are now down to around 1 inch, or about 70 percent of normal for July. Surface dew points are in the 40s to lower 50s, and our seasonal cicada bugs are starting to go silent. As is always the case with a break in the monsoon, our temperatures are quick to jump up, with our daytime highs running about 4 to 6 degrees above average for most of the coming week. The trough will phase eastward over the next 48 hours as the main low pushes slowly through northern tier states near the Canadian border. High pressure will build back in from Mexico as this happens. Initially that will mean temperatures heating up another degree or two around mid week, but it will also mean deeper moisture will start to push back this way from the south and southeast. Central and northern Sonora will quickly see larger scale organized convection by Wednesday, and then we will see a more determined push of moisture Thursday. Initially we`ll rely on surge and outflow activity to push storm formation deeper into our area late this week. Then, the monsoon should again push deeper into the state by late in the weekend into early next week as a strong high sets up shop again just east of the area. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z. VFR conditions through the period with a FEW-SCT clouds at 10-15k ft AGL this afternoon. Light sfc wind this morning becoming wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Expect stronger wind thru the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light, terrain driven wind will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Slightly above normal temperatures will occur over the next week. Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the International border Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Better rain chances will occur Friday and Saturday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph this afternoon and Monday afternoon near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the update this evening as dry and warm conditions continue through forecast. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday morning and continue through the day Sunday...causing a red flag warning to be issued for the northern parts Arizona`s high country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum AVIATION...Suk FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the update this evening as dry and warm conditions continue through forecast. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday morning and continue through the day Sunday...causing a red flag warning to be issued for the northern parts Arizona`s high country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107- 109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum AVIATION...Suk FIRE WEATHER...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 905 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail well into next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed near the Mexico border east of Nogales to the New Mexico border late today where there was just enough moisture available. They have since dissipated or moved off to the south and skies will clear off for the remainder of the night. A drier westerly flow developing in response to an abnormally strong (for the season) low pressure system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week and likely only near the international border area. Thanks to the drier conditions and limited cloud cover afternoon temperatures will be several degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period. Surface winds will be light and terrain driven and then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...With westerly flow in place across the region, dry conditions will prevail through Thursday with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 819 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Stronger than normal westerly flow will subside this evening. Onset of the easterly flow is expected around 11z at KPHX. Breezy conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon, with gusts occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Westerly flow between an area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and an anticyclone off the Baja Peninsula will produce a stronger than average westerly component to the low-level winds at both KIPL and KBLH. Winds will subside overnight, though gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt are likely Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 808 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Latest Phoenix sounding shows westerly flow extending well up through the tropopause. Two notable subsidence inversions were also observed in the sounding, associated with a strong mid and upper level anticyclone located just west of the Baja Peninsula. The westerly flow between the anticyclone and an anomalous trough across the Pacific Northwest is transporting relatively dry air into the Desert Southwest. With the dry air normally comes the heat and that was the case this afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high of 111 degrees in Phoenix, a few degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with continued above normal temperatures. Only minor short- term adjustments were made to the forecast this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week. As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region. Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z. VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected area wide Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 255 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to northern Arizona over the coming week. The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30 mph so fire danger will still be a concern. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will persist into this evening and develop again Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...KD FIRE WESTERH...KD For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 158 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...To Aviation Discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon (especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours. Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness. Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1235 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model suites, and virtually all of their respective ensemble members continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south, along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our cwa by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70- mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for more details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 921 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat. && .DISCUSSION...Models promise that low pressure will remain centered over the Pacific Northwest with high pressure stretching across Texas/northern Mexico into next weekend. This pattern will continue to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather. The only real concern weather wise is a heightened fire weather threat on Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough will brush Arizona bringing southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward each day. The strongest of these winds will be on Sunday where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Looking to the future...A few model runs hinting at the return of the monsoon by late next weekend but others continue the dry weather. Keep your fingers crossed. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin AVIATION...KD/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 830 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Another very quiet morning across our cwa as light westerly flow through the column continues to keep monsoon moisture well off to our south and east. Very warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500mb temp -5.7C on the 12z KPSR sounding) and lingering low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints near 50 degrees) helped to keep overnight lows up a bit across south-central AZ this morning, with Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting a low of 87. A dry forecast is still on tap for today with highs across the lower deserts still forecast to end up in the 108-112 degree range. Based on current trends, inherited forecasts are still looking good, and no updates are planned at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 435 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion... && .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today. Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July. && .DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday. We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in the Monsoon weather pattern. On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this time period. Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until the timer period gets closer. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern portions of the district. Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less wind and near average temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 301 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to several degrees above average for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and southeast of Tucson. As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run several degrees above average for much of the coming week. The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center. The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week, while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning, becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15 mph or less. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer/French Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 256 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area, southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this weekend. For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are forecast next week. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Vasquez AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored along the west coast of the United State while high pressure wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona. Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of moisture, stay tuned. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions. Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty winds will develop again late saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...AT FIRE WEATHER...AT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 940 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far southeastern sections Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week with above average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening were mainly across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. As of 930 pm activity had ended across the areas with debris cloud cover across eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. PW values this evening still holding above 1" from Tucson south and southeast. Will run out a quick update for overnight trends. Lowering PW values on Saturday with upper high over SW New Mexico will limit any thunderstorm activity to along the International border from Nogales east and across the White mountains. Highs on Saturday similar or slightly warmer than today. Check previous discussion below for details on the remainder of the forecast package through next Friday. Definitely not monsoonal like. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z. Scattered debris cloud cover from KTUS S and SE will continue to slowly dissipate. VFR conditions will occur Saturday, except for a few -TSRA/-SHRA NE of KSAD and across the Chiricahua Mountains NE of KDUG. SFC wind Saturday afternoon wly/nwly at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. The strongest wind will be near KSAD. Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A few thunderstorms may occur Saturday afternoon across the White Mountains northeast of Safford, and across the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern Cochise County. Dry conditions will then prevail Saturday night through next Friday. 20-foot winds Sunday and Monday may approach 20 mph in some locales. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Increasing westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday due to a fairly tight mid-level gradient will continue the drying process. This pattern should also translate into gusty generally westerly winds during the afternoon hours. However, wind speeds will remain below wind advisory criteria. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical Tuesday through Friday with depicting a sprawling high pressure ridge aloft to encompass the southwestern CONUS. Have noted that the GFS was more robust versus the ECMWF/CMC with the depiction of light liquid rain amounts to encroach upon far southeastern sections periodically Wednesday thru Friday. Given the progged synoptic pattern, have opted for the drier ECMWF/CMC solutions for this forecast package. Thus, expect dry conditions to continue across southeast Arizona during the middle and latter part of next week. Expect only very minor daily temp changes Saturday through next Friday, with high temps to generally be at least a few degs below normal through the period. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 900 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break in the monsoon, with little or no chance for rainfall. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees above, normal through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Early this evening, deep southwest flow aloft was present over all but far southeast Arizona, as deep upper troffing pushed into the Pacific Northwest coast, shunting the main high center southeast of Arizona and setting up stronger west to southwest flow aloft into the desert southwest. This deep southwest flow was easily seen in the area raobs, most prominent in Flagstaff and to slightly lesser an extent in Phoenix. The west flow has continued to erode moisture over the central deserts, the PWAT in Phoenix this evening was down to just 0.73 inches and surface dewpoints over the central deserts at 8 pm were mostly in the middle 40s - mostly down 3-10 degrees from 24 hours ago. IR imagery at 8 pm showed clear skies area wide. One small disturbance rotating around the upper high to our southeast had pushed up into far southeast Arizona this evening, increasing PWAT at Tucson to almost 1.3 inches and could be seen in the TUS sounding as a layer of southeast winds near 500 mb. The overall deep west/southwest flow impinging on the rest of Arizona ahead of the Pacific northwest troffing will keep this feature well to our southeast and it should not affect our weather tonight. For the rest of the night we can expect generally clear skies and gradually decreasing west winds along with mild to warm overnight low temperatures. Forecasts look to be in good shape and no updates are planned. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday... Increasing westerly flow ahead of a deep upper trof is expected to continue to scour out any remaining monsoon moisture over extreme SE and eastern AZ during this period. The latest HRRR model run keeps all convective activity confined to areas to the south and east of Tucson and over the white Mountains, well outside of our CWA this afternoon/evening, with even less activity on tap on Saturday. 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range, 500 mb temps in the -4C to -5C range, along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rise a bit above normal again on Saturday, with lower desert highs mostly in the 108-112 degree range. Sunday through next Friday... Further drying is expected across the region during this period as a very deep, and cold upper low center (for July) moves across the Northern Rockies during the early part of next week, bringing a chance for some rare mid-summer snowfall to the higher elevations of MT/WY. To the south of this low center, a band of anomalously strong westerlies are expected to move across the Great Basin/northern AZ region Sun-Tue. 700mb winds are expected to reach 30 kts, or even greater across parts of northern AZ, which are in the 99% (or higher) climatological percentile for this time of year, according to the NAEFS percentile tables. The main impact from this belt of very strong winds will be to mix drier air down to the sfc across the region, with sfc dewpoints likely falling into the 30s, or even 20s across most of our CWA. The dry airmass, combined with a bit of cooling aloft, will likely allow many outlying lower desert locations to see lows in the 70s each night. These cooler temperatures, combined with the lower RH`s will result in the nights feeling noticeably more pleasant than what we typically see this time of year. Highs will be near or just a bit above normal, mostly in the 105-110 degree range across the lower deserts. PWATS across the region will also be well below normal, in the 0.50-0.75 inch range, which is 1-2 SD below normal. Needless to say, chances for rainfall/thunderstorms during this entire period will be basically at zero as our extended break in the monsoon continues. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL: Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near future. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday. Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees. Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain. Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman