Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/09/16

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

.AVIATION...

Some SHRA/TSRA will continue to be possible during the overnight
period...though exact location will be somewhat uncertain. As a
result...will just mention some VCTS/VCSH. Chances for precip
will remain possible for Sat...with a similar scenario expected
regarding coverage and location. Some patchy fog will also be
possible...especially across the NRN sites where some precip has
been seen recently.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Sctd SHRA/TSRA have rapidly formed acrs parts of N-CNTRL and NERN AR
this aftn...assocd with MCV that worked into NW AR earlier in the
day. Severe t-storm watch in effect for those areas until 9 pm tngt.
Have adjusted POPS accordingly to reflect current trends...with
dcrsg coverage expected later this evening as the upr energy shifts
away fm the FA.

Upr rdg is fcst to contract ovr the FA heading into weekend...
allowing a series of upr impulses to move SEWD acrs AR. This wl
result in several more convective complexes to form upstream and
eventually affect the region. Timing and coverage of each sys wl be
the main fcst concern. Still expect to see the best chcs acrs the
NERN half of the FA thru Sat ngt. Rainfall amts upwards of an inch
or two can be expected ovr NRN AR...with lesser chcs the further S
you go. Rain and clouds wl hold down high temps ovr NRN and parts of
CNTRL AR...with the warmest readings in the SRN part of the CWA.

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

The extended forecast will start with rain in the forecast with the
nearly stalled frontal boundary over AR. The best chances will be
over central and northern AR on Sunday, then as the boundary is
expected to lift northward on Monday, a lower chance and more in the
east to northeast will be seen. On Tuesday and much of the rest of
the week, a more isolated afternoon to evening chance of convection
will be seen during the heat of the day...as the upper high pressure
ridge builds more into the Plains and caps some of the potential.
The overall chance of strong to severe storms will be low and
isolated. Otherwise...Temperatures will generally run above normal
values...as humidity levels remain high. Heat index values will also
remain in the 90s to 100 degrees to around 105 most days.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

.Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...59

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.AVIATION...08/18Z Taf Cycle

Remnants from morning MCS now affecting parts of NWRN AR. Expect
additional sctd SHRA/TSRA to form this aftn acrs NRN and WRN AR
along assocd outflow bndry/s. Have TEMPO groups at KHRO and KBPK
this aftn to account for this. Outside of convection...VFR conds
wl prevail thru the pd. Cannot rule out some SCTD low clouds again
Sat mrng...but moisture lvls not as abundant to mention any CIGS
attm. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

UPDATE...

Cont to monitor convective trends to our NW this mrng. MCS conts
to work EWD this aftn and affect mainly the NRN third of the FA.
While an overall weakening trend has been noted...expect storms to
refire as we apch max aftn heating. Some sctd SHRA/TSRA has
formed in the last hour over parts of W-CNTRL AR in the vcnty of
the an assocd outflow bndry and along the SERN periphery of the
higher lvl cloud shield.

Just made some minor adjustments to POPS this aftn to account for
radar/Hi-Res model trends. As expected...high temps ovr N AR wl be
held down some by abundant clouds/rain chcs. Cannot rule out a few
strong/svr storms this aftn as well...with gusty winds being the
main concern. Rest of fcst in good shape. All updates are out.
/44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Once again, surface analysis indicates ridge of high pressure
located southeast of the state with low pressure situated over
the TX/OK panhandles. A frontal boundary stretches from the TX/OK
panhandles northeastward toward Chicago. Several series of
thunderstorm complexes can be seen on NWS radar network early this
morning, from northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas as well as
across northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.

Better rain chances will be in the forecast during the short term
period as the upper ridge across the southern US begins to retreat
westward a bit providing more of a NW flow aloft over the state.
Several upper level shortwave troughs will move along this flow
and interact with the boundary at the surface which will be
positioned across northern Arkansas the next few days. Potential
is there for remnant thunderstorm complexes to move over the state
Saturday and Sunday morning, similar to what has been seen across
Kansas and Missouri the last few days.

Even with rainfall chances in the forecast and more widespread
cloud cover noted, only northern Arkansas will see a legitimate
break from summertime heat. It will still be quite warm across
central and southern areas. Winds will be enhanced again today
with breezy conditions out of the southwest. Even lighter winds
expected Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

A weakness in the ridge of high pressure over the southeast United
States coupled with a storm system aloft over southern Missouri
will yield isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in
Arkansas Sunday. At the surface, a weak stationary front will be
draped across northeast sections of the state, which is close to
the periphery of the ridge. Precipitation coverage will be
greatest north/east of Little Rock nearest the front.

A few storms may be severe. Damaging winds and hail will be the main
concerns. An organized severe weather event is not expected. Heavy
downpours in the northeast half of the state may result in localized
flash flooding.

Heading into early next week, a big trough of low pressure will
wobble from the Rockies to the upper Midwest. This will cause
ridging farther east, and the front will be forced to move away from
Arkansas to the north. The heat will return, and precipitation
chances will decrease.

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

Some patchy MVFR 1500-2000ft ceilings possible around central and
southern AR terminals the next few hours, then mainly VFR
conditions expected. Winds out of the SW today 7-12kts gusting as
high as 20kts at times. Could see isolated/scattered SH/TS
activity across mainly northern areas this afternoon/evening and
then again after midnight. Widespread mid/high clouds will be in
place for much of the TAF period as well.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 74 87 72 / 40 30 50 60
Camden AR 97 77 96 75 / 10 20 30 30
Harrison AR 89 71 84 69 / 50 50 50 50
Hot Springs AR 95 77 92 75 / 20 30 40 30
Little Rock AR 96 78 93 76 / 20 30 40 40
Monticello AR 96 79 95 76 / 10 20 30 30
Mount Ida AR 94 75 92 73 / 20 30 40 30
Mountain Home AR 90 72 85 70 / 50 50 50 60
Newport AR 94 75 88 73 / 40 30 50 50
Pine Bluff AR 95 78 92 75 / 20 20 40 30
Russellville AR 94 76 90 74 / 20 40 50 40
Searcy AR 95 76 91 73 / 20 30 50 50
Stuttgart AR 95 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms slowly moving SE out of SW MO and SE KS
this morning may bring vicinity SH/TS activity to northern AR
terminals this morning as they dissipate. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings expected across central/southern AR around daybreak once
again with primarily VFR conditions seen otherwise. Winds will be
out of the SW again with speeds of 8-12kts and gusts to 20kts at
times.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016
)

AVIATION...08/00z Taf Cycle

Look for VFR conds to cont thru much of pd. Sct-bkn low clouds wl
again dvlp toward sunrise Fri...mainly acrs CNTRL and SRN AR...
resulting in ocnl MVFR cigs. Hi-Res model data conts to suggest a
complex of storms forming forming later tngt acrs SRN KS...
eventually working SEWD into parts of NW AR Fri mrng. Included
PROB30 groups at KHRO and KBPK to account for any storms that may
form along residual small scale bndry`s later in the day. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

Earlier convection over northern AR associated with MCV moved
through southern MO and is now well east. It did develop isolated
convection to as far south as central AR. Also, the convection was
associated with short wave energy moving through the northwest
upper flow. Breezy south to southwest winds of 10 to 20 with gusts
to 25 mph across AR have been seen today, but have overall
remained below lake wind advisory levels. Temperatures have made
it to the 90s today over central to southern AR, while 70s to 80s
over the convection areas of northern AR. Heat index values have
reached from 100 to around 105 degrees over most locations.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Forecast will start with a chance to slight chance of late
afternoon to evening convection over northern to central AR. After
sunset, all convection is expected to weaken and dissipate. Late
tonight, a frontal boundary is forecast to sag southeastward
toward AR, and chances of convection come back in the forecast for
mainly northern areas Friday, then the northern half on Saturday.
Also at this time, due to in-place moisture and instability,
along with some lift, SPC has issued a marginal to slight risk of
severe storms for the northern half of AR. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary threats. Temperatures on Friday
will be similar to Thursday, but heat index values are only around
105 in spots. At this time will hold off on any advisory for
Friday. Likewise, surface wind speeds will remain elevated on
Friday, but as the front sags south, gradient will be not as
likely to reach lake wind advisory levels.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Model guidance is consistent in indicating that a weak shortwave
trough will move southeast towards Arkansas on Saturday...spreading
weak large scale forcing for ascent over southern Missouri and
northern Arkansas Saturday afternoon. In addition to supplying some
weak large scale ascent...this trough is likely to force the
persistent baroclinic zone/nearly stationary front currently located
near a Kansas City to Paducah line to the southwest towards northern
Arkansas.

Forecast guidance indicates that a ridge of low-level theta-e will
consolidate along this stationary front as it will effectively act
like a deformation zone in the low-level flow field with the axis of
convective enhancement oriented along the axis of the frontal
boundary. This flow field configuration should keep a steady
supply of warm and humid air flowing into this theta-e ridge
throughout the day on Saturday...setting the stage for a favorable
corridor for scattered to numerous thunderstorms from Saturday
through Saturday evening.

This corridor of storms is likely to remain focused along the
Missouri/Arkansas border...however the more storms that develop
along the boundary...the higher the potential for the boundary to sag
farther south on Saturday. Went ahead with 40-60 POPS from northern
to central Arkansas on Saturday to account for this set up. This
type of environment supports a threat for flash flooding...however
at this time the forcing looks a bit to weak to consider a flash
flood watch. Will watch the evolution of this environment closely in
the coming days.

The largest source of uncertainty for this forecast period is what
will happen to the shortwave trough on Sunday into Sunday night.
Forecast model guidance indicates that the upper trough will
intensify (depending on where you look) and almost become a cut off
low by Sunday afternoon over the MO/AR border. The intensification
of this trough may not take place though the strength of this trough
appears to be dependent upon diabatic contributions which convective
parameterizing models can struggle with when the primary diabatic
contributer is latent heat release from convection. Taking a
vertical cross section through the model depiction of the cut off
low reveals a potential vorticity distribution characterized by a
sudden intensification in mid-level PV and a sudden decrease in PV
at the tropopause level. This signal is a classic depiction of the
creation/destruction cycle of PV associated with latent heat release
in the troposphere. It is certainly possible that the models are
right with this forecast...but this process essentially means that a
large and sustained cluster of convection is responsible for
intensifying the "upper" trough. If that convection is misplaced or
weaker than expected it will have a dramatic effect on the remainder
of the forecast as the upper level trough will actually be much
farther downstream.

Because the boundary is expected to remain quasi-stationary on
Sunday...favored the GFS forecast for an intensifying mid-level PV
anomaly/trough with this forecast and kept POPs high across northern
and central Arkansas on Sunday. Keep in mind that if convection is
not as extensive or long-lived on Saturday that the Sunday
convection will likely be displaced pretty far off to the southeast
on Sunday. At any rate...the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all offer up a similar
type of dynamic solution this weekend...with slight differences in
timing and intensity of course. Assuming these models are
accurate...another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are likely across central and northern Arkansas Sunday
into Sunday night.

Monday through Thursday...

With quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast just this weekend...
the forecast for showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas on Monday
is fairly low at this time. The shortwave trough/mid-level PV
anomaly should have moved east or southeast of Arkansas by
Monday...so anticipate that the coverage of any showers or storms
will be much lower on Monday compared to this weekend. If the
boundary remains in tact this feature by itself could set off a
focused area of showers and storms Monday afternoon. Kept POPs in
the 20 to 30 percent range for now on Monday with highest confidence
in the upper trough being off to the east limiting the coverage of
precipitation.

The remainder of the week looks to remain warm with low rain chances
each day. Kept POPs in the 10 to 20 percent range each day for now
with no synoptic features evident in the forecast near Arkansas for
the middle of next week.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
711 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.AVIATION...08/00z Taf Cycle

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-
Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-
Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Van Buren-White-
Woodruff-Yell.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 95 78 94 75 / 40 30 40 30
Camden AR 97 77 96 78 / 20 20 10 20
Harrison AR 93 76 90 72 / 50 20 50 50
Hot Springs AR 96 79 95 77 / 20 20 20 30
Little Rock AR 96 78 96 78 / 20 20 20 30
Monticello AR 96 78 96 79 / 20 20 10 20
Mount Ida AR 95 78 93 75 / 20 20 20 30
Mountain Home AR 95 76 91 73 / 60 30 50 50
Newport AR 95 78 95 76 / 40 30 40 30
Pine Bluff AR 96 77 94 78 / 20 20 20 20
Russellville AR 98 77 94 76 / 30 20 20 40
Searcy AR 96 77 95 76 / 30 20 20 30
Stuttgart AR 96 77 95 78 / 20 20 20 20
&&

Short Term...59 / Long Term...66

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected. Patchy MVFR may be seen
especially associated with showers or isolated thunderstorms. Winds
are expected to be southeast to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with some
gusts to around 25 mph in spots. After sunset, winds will lower to 5
to 15 mph. Tonight, isolated convection may be seen over northern
Arkansas and affect KHRO and KBPK Tafs. Winds will lower to mainly
below 10 mph. (59)

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Earlier update to add scattered convection over northern AR. Complex
over MO has helped develop this convection associated with short
wave energy moving through the northwest upper flow. Breezy south to
southwest winds of 10 to 20 with gusts to 25 mph across AR. Will
monitor for possible lake wind advisory. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm to the 90s today, and with the added humidity, heat index
values will reach around 105 degrees. A heat advisory is in effect
for most of AR except the northern areas. Late morning update will
fine tune convection chances, possibly adding a bit more southern
areas in slight chance area. (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Similar setup to yesterday across the region with surface high
pressure in place to the southeast and low pressure noted across the
Southern Plains. Two MCS`s noted across the region with the first
impacting Tennessee/Kentucky and the second moving out of SE
Nebraska into northeastern Kansas.

Should see fewer impacts to the forecast area from upstream MCS in
Kansas due to more northerly location and easterly trajectory. Early
morning HRRR runs attempt to initiate some shower and thunderstorm
activity across E Oklahoma with a weak shortwave in the mean flow
and shift this activity toward Arkansas throughout the day. No
activity has manifested itself as of 09z so will keep forecast
dry attm though wouldn`t be surprised to see at least a few
isolated showers develop.

SW flow at the surface will be in place again today and winds will
be enhanced due to increased pressure gradient. Wind speeds will
likely be aoa 12-18mph with gusts as high as 25mph at times. The
other notable mention of the day goes to heat index values across
the state. With dewpoints in the 70s and temps cranking into the
mid to upper 90s, another run at heat index values of 105 will be
made this afternoon.

Rain chances will be in place across mainly northern Arkansas on
Friday as a surface boundary approaches from the NW. Additionally,
the H500 pattern begins to show signs of transitioning to more of an
active period with more of a NW flow expected. Will have to keep an
eye on temps/heat indices Friday as heat indices could approach
heat advisory levels once again across the southern half of the
state. Could see chances for a more notable thunderstorm complex
approaching the state from the northwest late Friday night.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

As a ridge of high pressure weakens over the southeast United
States, a cold front will be allowed to drop through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys during the upcoming weekend. The front may
actually make it into northeast Arkansas. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast. Given more clouds,
it will be slightly cooler.

A few storms may be severe as the front nears the region. Damaging
winds and hail will be the main concerns. An organized severe
weather event is not expected at this point. Heavy downpours in the
northeast half of the state may result in localized flash flooding.

Heading into early next week, a big trough of low pressure will be
noted out west. This will cause ridging farther east, and the front
will be forced to move away from Arkansas to the north. The
heat will return, and precipitation chances will decrease.

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. Readings may be a touch below average toward the
Missouri border this weekend near the aforementioned front.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Aviation...226

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

905 PM PDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Onshore flow will continue night through morning low clouds and
fog for the coast and valleys into next week that should clear to
the beaches by the afternoons. Breezy winds may occur in the
mountains and deserts into Monday. Near normal temperatures will
persist through Monday. A high pressure system should build in
from Tuesday to Thursday for a slow warming trend.

.UPDATE...

Southwest flow aloft remains in place between a trough of low
pressure off the British Columbia Coast and a ridge of high
pressure over the Gila River Basin. Closer to the surface,
onshore flow remains across the area keeping persistent night
through morning stratus in place over the coasts and valleys. As
high pressure wobbles west through Saturday, onshore flow will
weaken some and the marine depth will thin slightly. Onshore
gradients are about a half millibars weaker this evening than last
evening with the marine layer depth about 200 feet thinner. The
latest KLAX amdar soundings indicate the marine layer depth near
950 feet this evening, which will likely deepen to near 1800 feet
by Saturday morning if NAM BUFR time height sections play out. A
little less stratus coverage should be expected tonight with a
slight warm-up taking place over today. 500 mb heights rise and
1000-500 mb thickness values climb again for Saturday. Stratus may
be difficult to clear out from the beaches on Saturday afternoon.
A few tweaks have been made to temperatures on Saturday, warming
the areas outside of the marine influence and keeping the
immediate coastal locations near persistence.

A northerly pressure gradient will start to develop and tighten on
Saturday night and continue through weekend. Gusty Sundowner
winds will likely develop each night from Saturday night and into
Tuesday morning. Latest NAM-WRF solutions tighten KSBA-KSMX on
Saturday evening to near -4 mb on Saturday evening and slightly
above -4 mb on Sunday evening. A wind advisory may need to be
considered by future shifts once confidence in timing and
strength becomes a bit more apparent.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...A low pressure system currently just west of
Vancouver will drop into Oregon tomorrow with a dry trough
extending into central California...then move eastward through
Monday. Northwest winds will strengthen Saturday night through
Sunday night as a result. Southern Santa Barbara County will
likely need a wind advisory Saturday night through Sunday
night...while the LA Mountains and the Antelope Valley should need
one for late Sunday afternoon and night. Gusts into the 50 mph
range are likely in these areas during the wind peak Sunday night.
Monday will also see some breezy northwest winds...but should be
the weakest of the next three days.

Stratus coverage and temperatures on Saturday should be similar
to today...save for less stratus over SBA and SLO counties thanks
to the dry front passage and the SMX-BFL pressure gradient
significantly weakening by 3 mb. The Northwest flow will likely
keep most of Ventura and southern SBA counties stratus clear
Sunday and Monday...while a strong coastal eddy will push clouds
to the coastal slopes in LA County with some spits of drizzle
possible. The Central Coast stratus remains a tough call on
Sunday...but should be mostly cloud-free on Monday as breezy
northeast flow forms in the morning. All of this adds up to a
mixed bag of temperature trends with the winds and stratus
evolution being the main drivers.

LONG TERM...An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over
north-central Mexico will expand into California Tuesday through
Thursday. This will bring a gradual warming trend to the
region...with interior valleys approaching 100 degrees by
Wednesday or Thursday. LA and Ventura County coastal and valley
areas should also see warming with the air mass change and likely
shrinking of the marine layer. SBA and SLO counties on the other
hand will see a ceasing of the northwest flow and a return to
onshore flow...which should increase stratus coverage and largely
neutralize the warming trend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
advertising a weak trough dropping down into California by as
early as Friday...which would enhance the marine layer and usher
in some modest cooling. The GFS ensemble members are in very good
agreement with this timing especially considering how far out this
is...so did start the cooling trend in the forecast.

.AVIATION...09/0000Z.

At 00Z, the marine layer depth was around 950 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the inversion was around 3100 feet with a temperature
near 23 degrees Celsius.

North of Point Conception...Predominantly LIFR to IFR conditions
will spread into Central Coast Terminals through 06Z then likely
deteriorate to LIFR between 08Z and 15Z. There is a 30 percent
chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB between 13Z and 16Z.

South of Point Conception...IFR to MVFR conditions will spread
into coastal and valley terminals through 13Z. Highest confidence
in IFR conditions exists north of KNTD. Coastal terminals may
struggle to clear on Saturday afternoon.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will spread in through 05Z at the latest
and linger through at least 17Z. There is a 50 percent chance of
MVFR conditions developing between 01Z and 05Z.

KBUR...There is a 70 percent chance of MVFR conditions spreading
in between 10Z and 13Z and lingering until 16Z.

.MARINE...08/800 PM.

Will continue with the gale watch for increasing northwest winds.
Northwest winds will likely increase Saturday afternoon and peak
Sunday in strength over the waters from Piedras Blancas to San
Nicolas Island and out 60 nm. Northwest winds will diminish
Monday but there is a chance SCA for hazardous sea conditions as
well as northwest gusts to 25 knots through Wednesday.

Extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores will
result from swells originating from tropical cyclones Blas and
Celia...and from the Southern Ocean through the period. Swell
from Blas will linger through Saturday. Swells generated by Celia
are expected to begin to arrive next week Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...08/300 PM.

Elevated fire danger will continue across interior sections
through the weekend. For this afternoon, the gusty onshore winds
will mostly be focused across the Antelope Valley and Los Angeles
County mountains. Over the weekend, west to north winds are
expected to become more widespread across interior sections,
including gusty sundowner winds across the western portions of the
Santa Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains. Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night, wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph
will be common across the mountains, Antelope Valley, and western
portions of the SBA South Coast, then potentially ramping up to
between 40 and 50 mph on Sunday afternoon and night. On Saturday,
humidities will generally remain above 20 percent with the
exception of the Antelope Valley where values in the teens can be
expected. By Sunday afternoon and evening, more widespread
humidities falling into the teens (and possibly single digits
across higher mountains) can be expected across interior sections
bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions. The
greatest threat of critical conditions exceeding 6 hours will be
the mountains and Antelope Valley on Sunday afternoon and evening,
where a fire weather watch has been posted.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
late Sunday night For zones 252>254. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Sunday evening For zone 259. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late
Sunday night For zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday For
zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...Hall/Kittell
FIRE...Gomberg
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Seto/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
900 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert
southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break
in the monsoon, with little or no chance for rainfall. Afternoon
temperatures on the lower deserts will remain near, or a few degrees
above, normal through the period.

.DISCUSSION...
Early this evening, deep southwest flow aloft was present over all
but far southeast Arizona, as deep upper troffing pushed into the
Pacific Northwest coast, shunting the main high center southeast of
Arizona and setting up stronger west to southwest flow aloft into
the desert southwest. This deep southwest flow was easily seen in
the area raobs, most prominent in Flagstaff and to slightly lesser
an extent in Phoenix. The west flow has continued to erode moisture
over the central deserts, the PWAT in Phoenix this evening was down
to just 0.73 inches and surface dewpoints over the central deserts
at 8 pm were mostly in the middle 40s - mostly down 3-10 degrees
from 24 hours ago. IR imagery at 8 pm showed clear skies area wide.
One small disturbance rotating around the upper high to our
southeast had pushed up into far southeast Arizona this evening,
increasing PWAT at Tucson to almost 1.3 inches and could be seen in
the TUS sounding as a layer of southeast winds near 500 mb. The
overall deep west/southwest flow impinging on the rest of Arizona
ahead of the Pacific northwest troffing will keep this feature well
to our southeast and it should not affect our weather tonight. For
the rest of the night we can expect generally clear skies and
gradually decreasing west winds along with mild to warm overnight
low temperatures. Forecasts look to be in good shape and no updates
are planned.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...

Increasing westerly flow ahead of a deep upper trof is expected to
continue to scour out any remaining monsoon moisture over extreme SE
and eastern AZ during this period. The latest HRRR model run keeps
all convective activity confined to areas to the south and east of
Tucson and over the white Mountains, well outside of our CWA this
afternoon/evening, with even less activity on tap on Saturday. 500 mb
heights in the 593-595 dm range, 500 mb temps in the -4C to -5C
range, along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rise
a bit above normal again on Saturday, with lower desert highs mostly
in the 108-112 degree range.

Sunday through next Friday...

Further drying is expected across the region during this period as a
very deep, and cold upper low center (for July) moves across the
Northern Rockies during the early part of next week, bringing a
chance for some rare mid-summer snowfall to the higher elevations of
MT/WY. To the south of this low center, a band of anomalously strong
westerlies are expected to move across the Great Basin/northern AZ
region Sun-Tue. 700mb winds are expected to reach 30 kts, or even
greater across parts of northern AZ, which are in the 99% (or
higher) climatological percentile for this time of year, according
to the NAEFS percentile tables. The main impact from this belt of
very strong winds will be to mix drier air down to the sfc across
the region, with sfc dewpoints likely falling into the 30s, or even
20s across most of our CWA. The dry airmass, combined with a bit of
cooling aloft, will likely allow many outlying lower desert
locations to see lows in the 70s each night. These cooler
temperatures, combined with the lower RH`s will result in the nights
feeling noticeably more pleasant than what we typically see this time
of year. Highs will be near or just a bit above normal, mostly in
the 105-110 degree range across the lower deserts. PWATS across the
region will also be well below normal, in the 0.50-0.75 inch range,
which is 1-2 SD below normal. Needless to say, chances for
rainfall/thunderstorms during this entire period will be basically at
zero as our extended break in the monsoon continues.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Not much change in the overall weather pattern expected over the
next 24 hours...and likely for the next several days or more as dry
southwest to west flow aloft will dominate the weather affecting the
Phoenix area terminals. Skies to be genly clear next 24 hours at all
sites; there is no threat of weather of any kind through the weekend
including storms or gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold
onto typical diurnal tendencies, although they may be a bit slow to
turn back to the east/southeast after midnight. Again, we may see
some afternoon and early evening gustiness out of the west on
Saturday but really there are no aviation concerns for the near
future.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with
skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH
next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible on Saturday.
Evening west winds at KIPL likely will return to the southeast
during the morning hours on Saturday, then returning again to the
west during the early evening hours Saturday with a few gusts to
20kt possible. No aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least
the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday...
An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work
week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints
generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees.
Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough
passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier
airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a
warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to
around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain.
Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest
afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain
well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will
mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

636 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

Despite some morning clouds and an easterly wind across the area,
temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90, save the far
south which is still holding in the lower 80s as clouds continue
there. Several small waves noted in the flow, one of which is
approaching central kansas at this hour. Experimental HRRR has a
relatively reasonable solution that brings the MCV into the CWA and
interacts with an outflow moving up from the south out of earlier
convection, and brings a round of showers and thunderstorms across
western and southern areas later this afternoon into the evening.
Wind fields are weak, although CAPE could be enough to generate some
wind with storms that develop. LLJ is only around 25kts overnight,
but may redevelop storms over central/south central Kansas overnight
and move eastward across mainly our southern counties. Only
carrying slight chance to low chance PoPs given coverage and
uncertainty. Lows tonight forecast near 70 with highs on Saturday
in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

No major changes made in the extended with still some variances in
model guidance on timing and coverage of precipitation. Best chances
for seeing more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with
the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday. More details below.

Temporary ridging aloft Saturday night and Sunday should keep much
of the area dry. Strong upper trough across the Inter Mountain West
deepens a lee trough over the Rockies Sunday and Monday, increasing
southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained in the afternoon. Gusts up
to 30 mph are possible, alleviating slightly the hot and humid
conditions with readings in the lower and middle 90s.

The aforementioned upper trough ejects over the northern plains
Monday evening and Tuesday, surging the cold front into north
central KS in the overnight hours. Guidance continues to exhibit
high confidence in this scenario and have raised pops into the
likely category near the KS and NE border. Ample mixed layer CAPE
and effective shear parameters near 40 kts could develop a few
strong to severe storms over north central areas. This activity
pushes south and east on Tuesday, spreading chances towards the
entire CWA.

Models differ some Tuesday evening onward as the frontal boundary
hangs up across the area. Subtle impulses embedded within the
northwesterly flow aloft signals multiple rounds of thunderstorms,
especially on Wednesday evening. Temps hover near normal values in
the lower 90s for highs and low 70s for overnight lows, likely to
drop into the 80s by the end of the period as the frontal boundary
shifts south of the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. Confidence
is not high as models offer differing solutions on convective
development through 05Z. Therefore will not mention now and will
monitor for tsra inclusion in terminals. Winds light from the east
to southeast generally under 10 kts.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...53

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

315 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Early morning convection brought a swath of rainfall northwest
through southeast across the forecast area, and left an outflow over
eastern Kansas throughout the morning hours. Temperatures now mixing
out and rising into the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints also slow
to rise, with Concordia at this hour still at 66F while southern
areas increasing into the low 70s. End result will be a few hours
in our southern and eastern areas with heat indicies in the 100 to
103 range, just shy of criteria for an advisory. Satellite imagery
and wind fields show boundary over north central Kansas near the NE
border, but lift remains generally weak in this area to tap into
the instability aloft. Storms developing along the front up into
Nebraska and extending into Minnesota, with this cluster expected
to build east and southward with time. Much of our area has a
strong cap in place with 16-18C at 700mb, and with lack of a
strong source of forcing, think areas that have the best chance
for strong storms are far eastern counties on the edge of the cap
and where 850mb winds veer to the SW into the evening hours.
Enough cape, wind and steep lapse rates aloft to make wind the
primary concern with small hail also a possibility. Think that
the boundary farther to the west will have a hard time generating
precipitation, and have lower chances as you go westward into
north central Kansas.

On Friday...Front is forecast to have moved south and west of the
area. Convection is forecast to develop in western Kansas along
the front as a shortwave moves into the state. At this time think
impacts of rain chances will be primarily in our west and south,
given location of the front and some likely reinforcement of its
position from the cold pool from overnight convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Friday Evening through Sunday...Underneath westerly flow aloft,
an embedded impulse is progged to lift north and east from the
southwest CONUS into the central Plains Friday evening into
Saturday. Convergence along the h85 boundary Friday evening in
conjunction with a stout llj up to 30 kts will develop another
round of thunderstorms across portions of central KS. As a
shortwave trough continues eastward during the day Saturday,
thunderstorms remain possible especially along and south of the
Interstate 70 corridor where the boundary remains stationary. With
the potential for cloud cover and precipitation, highs are
generally in the mid to upper 80s. Further west, where better
mixing and lesser cloud cover resides, highs in the lower 90s are
expected. This trend continues into early evening as activity
gradually shifts southeast, creating a quiet evening for the area
with mostly cloudy skies and lows near 70. A warmer and drier
forecast is in store on Sunday as upper ridging builds overhead
while the frontal boundary edges towards Missouri. Highs are
progged in the lower 90s for Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...An amplified trough is expected
to be located across the Western United States at the beginning of
the period. Weak lead waves ejecting from the base of the trough
could lead to thunderstorm development Sunday night and Monday. A
more substantial wave is depicted by both the EC and GFS on
Tuesday, however the bulk of forcing looks to go north of the
outlook area. Have Chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and evening as a
weak surface boundary will setup in the area. This boundary in
conjunction with weak upper level forcing could provide enough
convergence for thunderstorm development. With a strong cap in
place, widespread thunderstorm development is unlikely, but if
development occurs, storms may be severe. Zonal mid-level flow
will become the dominate flow by midweek next week. With weak mid-
level waves traversing the CONUS, will have to maintain at least
slight-chance PoPs for the remainder of the period. Muggy
conditions will continue for the duration of the period as high
temperatures will remain in the low to middle 90s and dewpoints in
the 70s. This combination yields Heat Index values near 100
degrees every afternoon of the period.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Main concerns in the forecasts are for wind changes as front
approaches and passes. Also a chance for strong thunderstorms to
develop in eastern Kansas and will need to monitor for possible
impact on TOP/FOE. Have added a VCTS thinking storms will be
primarily east of terminals.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...67

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
229 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

A cold front dropping south across southwest Kansas during the
afternoon will be located near the Oklahoma border during the
early evening hours. Models are hinting at a weak upper level
disturbance approaching from the four corners region early
tonight. Given the forecast weak CIN near this boundary, moisture
and weak instability ahead of this wave early tonight will retain
mention of small chances for convection along and south of the
Oklahoma border.

Based on some cloud cover overnight and light easterly winds
developing the latest MAV/MET guidance looks on track with lows
ranging from the mid 60s in west central Kansas to near 75 in
south central Kansas and along the Oklahoma border.

Cooler, more seasonal temperatures can be expected on Friday
given the cooling trend forecast in the 900mb to 850mb level along
with the expected cloud cover. Precipitation chances will also be
on the increase late day as moisture and lift begins to improve
across southwest Kansas. The better opportunity for precipitation
will be Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Warm air advection, moisture, and instability will improve Friday
night as another upper level disturbance approaches from the west.
Given the 0-1km moisture convergence, CAPES and 0-6km shear there
will be a chance for a few of these storms Friday night to become
severe. Hail up to half dollar and strong damaging winds will be
the main hazard. Heavy rainfall will also be an issue with these
storms Friday night given the forecast high precipitable water.

Precipitation chances for western Kansas will briefly taper off
by Sunday as the warm front lifts north and east and ridging aloft
begins to build into the West Central High Plains.

Early next week the next upper low/trough will begin to move east
across the western United states. As this next system approaches
the chance for afternoon and night time convection will begin to
increase across western Kansas. A warming trend can also be
expected early next week given the warming forecast in the 850mb
to 700mb level.

The GFS and ECMWF both move this next upper level storm system
across the central plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. As this
passes a cold front will drop south across western Kansas bringing
an end to the warming trend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

As a cold front moves south into northern Oklahoma by late day a
northerly wind at around 10 knots can be expected at all three taf
sites through early tonight. Overnight these north winds will
gradually veer to the east which will begin to draw more humid air
back into the lower levels. At this time model soundings do not
indicate fog or stratus development by 12z Friday but some patchy
3 to 5sm fog does appear possible at GCK and DDC. As the moisture
and lift begins to improve early in the day an area of VFR
ceilings may begin develop near or just south and west DDC or GCK
after 12z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 92 67 95 / 10 30 30 20
GCK 69 91 67 95 / 10 20 30 20
EHA 68 91 67 97 / 20 20 20 20
LBL 69 94 68 98 / 20 20 30 20
HYS 68 88 66 90 / 20 30 50 20
P28 74 93 71 95 / 20 30 40 20

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1218 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a zonal
pattern across the Central Rockies with an elongated ridge across
the southern plains. A stronger trough is digging into the northern
plains from the Northern Rockies. A few weaker shortwave troughs are
rotating through the High/Central Plains.

Early this morning: A thunderstorm complex that developed late
evening/early this morning has transitioned well east of our CWA,
however thunderstorm activity has continued to develop where nose of
LLJ/WAA interacted with lingering outflow boundary. Trend has been
towards activity to diminish in intensity/coverage as it transitions
east, and current activity should be outside of our CWA within the
next 1-1.5 hr. Pattern could still support isolated thunderstorm
redevelopment in our north or east through day break with deep moist
flow and elevated CAPE lingering, so timing was adjusted to account
for this.

Today-Tonight: Shortwave trough in the northern plains has trended
faster than earlier guidance had indicated, with 00Z guidance
picking up on current trends. With faster trough passage in the
northern plains FROPA is now shown to move through our CWA during
the day today, with some faster members showing it south of our CWA
by midday. This obviously impacts high temps, but also raises the
possibility for isolated showers or thunderstorms within the frontal
zone if cap were to weaken sufficiently. Guidance does show moisture
profiles (above surface) drying out, and this does lower overall
confidence at the very least in coverage. Latest trends in short
range and high resolution guidance is to keep our CWA dry through
most of the day, with better chances late afternoon through the
evening as activity along the Cheyenne ridge transitions southeast
through the mean flow impacting our north and eventually our east.
I also trended Highs downward to account for earlier FROPA.

Friday-Saturday night: Initially a post frontal air mass Friday
should support highs closer to seasonal normals around 90F. H5 ridge
builds into the Plains, with south-southwest flow supporting above
normal high temperatures returning Saturday. Pattern still allows
for weak shortwave trough passages and Gulf moisture interacting
with surface features (mainly lee trough) to produce
shower/thunderstorm chances over our CWA through these periods.
Guidance continues to show overlapping precip signals, particularly
Friday and Saturday evenings. Main uncertainty will be position of
surface features that will act as focal points for initiation,
followed by evolution of any convective clusters that may develop.
1 to 1.5" PWATs and periods of possible training or slower storm
motions could result in elevated flash flood threats, High CAPE
values and effective shear in the 30-40kt may also support
wind/large hail threats.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Somewhat unsettled weather is expected during the extended period
with intermittent chances for precipitation, along with near
seasonal temperatures.

On Sunday, upper level ridging progresses eastward from the Plains
as an upper closed low moves further over the Pacific Northwest.
Southwesterly flow develops aloft across the region, with the ridge
over the Upper Midwest and trough over the western CONUS, and
moisture filters towards the High Plains. Mainly dry conditions are
anticipated.

The associated low pressure system over the northern Plains
strengthens on Monday as the upper trough advances east.
Thunderstorm chances return to the region, with a better chance
Monday night when a stronger disturbance passes through the flow.
Thunderstorms continue to be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as
another disturbance impacts the High Plains and the upper low makes
its way to central Canada, bringing zonal flow to the area.

Temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast throughout
the period. Lows appear to range within the mid 50s to low 70s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

VFR conditions currently expected through the TAF period at GLD
and MCK. Moisture pooling ahead of the cold front moving through
the central high plains region has led to the development of a
ceiling of cumulus, but is expected to mostly dissipate late this
afternoon as dryer air moves in behind the front. Later in the
day, mostly between 00Z-06Z, but also continuing overnight, there
could be isolated thunderstorms and a few lingering overnight
showers that track through the region mainly along and north of
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Have not included them in the current
TAFs as probabilities are low and are not expected to be part of
the prevailing conditions at this time.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1225 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Once again the models have struggled to show where the MCS will
track with the ARW and NMM appearing to have some idea of the
location but 3 to 4 hours off on the timing. Water vapor imagery
shows a synoptic scale upper wave moving into the northern plains
while profiler hint at another MCV in eastern NEB. At the surface,
low pressure was analyzed over eastern CO and a meso high from
this morning`s convection was noted over the mid MO river valley.

With the MCS tracking across northeast KS this morning, the forecast
is based on the expected outflow pushing into east central KS this
morning before retreating back to near the KS river. This boundary
could also be reinforced by the late afternoon be synoptic pressure
rises from the upper shortwave moving across the northern plains.
With this in mind, have highs in the lower 90s across northern KS
with mid to upper 90s over east central KS. There is a fair amount
of uncertainty in this temp forecast. With the models showing a poor
track record with the nocturnal convection, confidence in exactly
where the surface boundaries end up is low. As for the possible heat
and humidity, there is a concern that I may be a little high with
dewpoints this afternoon given the convection overturning the
airmass now. Heat indices could be around 105 along and south of the
KS river but think I`ll wait to see where the outflow ends up to get
a better idea of where a heat advisory may be needed.

Precip chances through the afternoon are expected to be low but not
zero. Models strengthen the mid level EML with 700MB temps around
+17. This would be a substantial cap to a surface parcel. Have held
onto some 20 to 30 percent POPs because models bring the surface
trough into east central KS which may have enough convergence along
it for an isolated storm during the heat of the day. Overnight, the
low level jet is progged to be veered to the west southwest so
convergence along the boundary would appear to be minimal. So again
will only keep a small chance POP. But given the recent track record
of the models confidence in the forecast is below average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Friday into the weekend, have kept slight chance POPs south of I-70
for the day on Friday as a stationary boundary should stay set up
over southern KS. Weak quasi-zonal to northwest flow will be set up
over the region, so as we head into the weekend, there may be some
very subtle shortwaves and that advect out of the Northern and
Central Rockies vicinity over the region and help provide additional
lift over weak surface convergence to spark a few showers and
possibly thunderstorms as a conditionally unstable atmosphere sets
back up over northeastern KS. Very difficult at this time to
eliminate small chance POPs out of any time frame due to possible
convection developing in association with this boundary. Most
precip would likely be all elevated and weak shear would limit
organization. By the end of the weekend, weak ridging builds into
the region and late Sunday would probably be a time where precip
chances could be lowered in future updates at least looking ahead
right now.

Mean Westerlies will continue to reside to the north over the
northern tier of the CONUS. By Monday, a deepening North Pac Low
digs into the Intermountain West and begins to impact the Central
Plains Monday night into Tuesday time frame as initial weak lead
shortwaves impact northeastern KS area. This brings back a
reasonable increase in POPs, but still slight to chance only as
coverage isn`t high confidence at this time. Finally, another weak
cold front arrives day time frame Tuesday and as the previously
mentioned North Pac Low lifts into the Northern Plains and Central
Canada, a stationary boundary is left behind and probably gives
reasonable chances of off and on precip and some unorganized storms
through mid week and could finally exit the region by Thursday.
Continued WAA into this time frame should bring dewpoints back into
the upper 60s and lower 70s consistently with surface temps into the
low to perhaps mid 90s. Heat indices will again likely rise into
the low 100s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...67

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

A shortwave trough will traverse the northern plains today,
helping to push a weak cold front through western Kansas by
tonight. Moist upslope flow will develop behind the front tonight
and then persist into Friday. This surface front will remain over
the southern and central plains Saturday as weak upper level
ridging moves over the high plains. A large upper level trough
over the western United States Saturday and Sunday is expected to
progress eastward into the northern plains by Monday. Surface
troughing will develop in advance of this upper level system by
Sunday, with a weak cold front approaching by late Monday.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

There is some uncertainty with the speed of the aforementioned
cold front today. The RAP is faster with the front with
slightly cooler temperatures, while the NAM is a bit slower. The
HRRR is also faster. Given that the winds were already from the
northeast at Hays and Hill City as of 3 am, which is probably due
to thunderstorm outflow from storm clusters in Nebraska, it`s
likely that the faster frontal movement is correct. This would
result in 100+ temperatures being confined to the Oklahoma state
line, with cooler mid 90s or perhaps even lower 90s along
Interstate 70. Thunderstorms are not expected although there is a
very slight chance along the Colorado state line along the front
that will be trailing back to the west-northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Friday as low level upslope
flow results in high theta-e values on the cool side of the
front. These could be severe given a belt of 45kt upper level
winds and given the expected slow storm motions, resulting in good
storm top ventilation. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs
only in the lower 90s at best. There is a small chance of
thunderstorms into Saturday despite the weak upper level ridging
as the frontal boundary lingers. THe aforementioned strong upper
level trough developing over the western United States this
weekend will result in west-southwesterly mid level flow and
lee surface troughing over the high plains by Saturday and
persisting into Sunday. There is a small chance of thunderstorm
along and ahead of the surface trough, with south winds and warmer
maximum temperatures into the mid 90s. As the upper level trough
progresses into the northern plains by Monday, a weak cold front
should progress into western Kansas, resulting in continued small
thunderstorm chances.

As long as the southern edge of mid-latitude belt of westerlies
remains over Kansas, thunderstorms will be hard to rule out just
about any day. This be due to the tendency for surface fronts to
stall out across the area, along with low level moisture
convergence. Additionally, minor disturbances in the westerlies
could enhance thunderstorm chances on certain days.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 70 92 67 / 0 10 30 30
GCK 96 69 91 67 / 0 10 20 30
EHA 101 68 91 67 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 101 69 94 68 / 10 20 20 30
HYS 95 68 88 66 / 0 10 30 50
P28 105 74 93 71 / 10 20 30 40

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

701 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Friday into the weekend, have kept slight chance POPs south of I-70
for the day on Friday as a stationary boundary should stay set up
over southern KS. Weak quasi-zonal to northwest flow will be set up
over the region, so as we head into the weekend, there may be some
very sublte shortwaves and that advect out of the Northern and
Central Rockies vicinity over the region and help provide additional
lift over weak surface convergence to spark a few showers and
possibly thunderstorms as a conditionally unstable atmosphere sets
back up over northeastern KS. Very difficult at this time to
eliminate small chance POPs out of any time frame due to possible
convection developing in association with this boundary. Most
precip would likely be all elevated and weak shear would limit
organization. By the end of the weekend, weak ridging builds into
the region and late Sunday would probably be a time where precip
chances could be lowered in future updates at least looking ahead
right now.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

For the 12Z TAFs, ongoing thunderstorms continue to move through
the area and over the TAF sites with reasonably good confidence
until around mid morning time frame. Conditions improve into the
afternoon before FROPA this evening. Until then winds will
generally have a southerly...southeasterly component and gust up
to the low 20kt range. Winds shift to the northwest after FROPA.
Not expecting significant CIG/VIS degradation outside of the TSRA
activity.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Drake

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Somewhat unsettled weather is expected during the extended period
with intermittent chances for precipitation, along with near
seasonal temperatures.

Temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast throughout
the period. Lows appear to range within the mid 50s to low 70s.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Lingering low level moisture associated with weak easterly flow
ahead of approaching cold front could support fog/stratus at both
KGLD and KMCK terminals this morning. While short range and high
resolution guidance does show this increase in low level moisture
no guidance is indicating drops below VFR at this time.
Confidence is not high enough to indroduce in TAFs at this time.
A complication could be the increased mixing from exiting
thunderstorm activity east of KMCK and a deparing LLJ preventing
fog formation. Will need to monitor, but will hold off on
introducing lower condtions at this time.

A cold front will pass through the region by midday with
at least a brief period (if not 6 hr period) of gusty north winds
imediately behind the front, followed by a shift and decrease in
winds to the northeast and then east this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon/evening (mainly at
KMCK), however confidence/coverage is too low to include mention
in TAFs at this time.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1150 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

Effects of northeast and southern KS convection this morning has
left airmass over the forecast area drier and not as hot as
previously forecast. Thus, have struggled to have HI values
approach 100 degrees across most of the area and have cancelled Heat
Advisory.

Main questions for the forecast for tonight and Thursday are: What
will be the mechanism for potential thunderstorms affecting us
tonight and Thursday, and whether temps and dewpoints will reach
high enough to meet heat index criteria Thursday afternoon?

For the latter question, currently forecasting temps in the mid 90s
in the north and east with upper 90s possible over portions of
central KS. Dewpoints are forecast to range from the lower to
possibly middle 70s in the east, while upper 60s to near 70 is more
realistic over central KS. This would lead to max HI values from 100
to 105 nearing advisory criteria. However, there is enough
uncertainty in reaching these values if we have our airmass once
again modified by convective outflows and some cloudiness from
overnight/morning thunderstorms near our area. Thus, have not
issued an advisory for Thursday and will let midnight forecast crew
decide on that as potential convective effects become less uncertain.

Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over extreme western
KS, and possibly another one to the northwest in northern CO.
Most short and medium range models do not develop persistent
convection with these features. However a few runs of the HRRR and
experimental HRRR have been developing a cluster of storms over
eastern CO or southwest KS and bringing the associated convection
across eastern KS after midnight. Given inconsistency of these
HRRR runs, have not included any significant POPs from this
forecast convection. Possibly more likely scenario would be closer
to going forecast, and perhaps best depicted by 12Z NAM, where an
MCS is forecast to affect primarily Nebraska, with tail end
affecting far northern and northeastern KS late tonight and
Thursday morning. This is what has been put in forecast grids, but
developments over western KS will obviously have to be monitored
for HRRR scenarios.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

Strong upper wave will move across the Upper Midwest pushing a cold
front across the area Thu night. Capping and stronger lift
associated with the wave should keep the bulk of the precip NE of
the area but will keep low chcs in the northeast given strength of
wave. The front will sag into southern KS on Friday and will keep
low chcs across the southern counties near the front. By Friday
night into the weekend confidence in location and timing of precip
is low since recent performance of models has been poor with
placement of nocturnal convection. That said chcs would appear to
increase at least across central KS Fri night as the thetaE
advection increases atop the boundary. The area will remain within
the weak upper ridge with overnight storm chcs through the weekend
before a unusually strong upper trough moves into the Rockies by
early next week. This trough will push a front into the region by
later Monday into Tues so it would appear best chcs for organized
storms would occur around that time frame. The front will hang up
across the area toward mid week and with zonal flow wouldn`t be
surprised to see storm chcs persist through next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

Confidence on convection remains low...too low for inclusion.
Thunderstorms to the northwest showing little propagation south
but some potential for this as well as isentropic upglide
development ahead of it remains.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
429 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Overnight showers and thunderstorms across mainly the northern
half of the state brought abundant lightning and localized heavy
rainfall to some areas. Will see a southward push in activity
through the morning hours which will focus more activity into
central Arkansas.

Not much has changed in the forecast this morning, with the
overall setup still the same. Frontal boundary will situate itself
across northern Arkansas and help focus rainfall chances across
the state as a shortwave trough makes its way over the area.
Track of the shortwave will provide the best rain chances to the
northeast half of the state.

Start to see a withdraw in rain chances to the east at the end of
the short term period as the boundary lifts northward.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler across the northern half of the
state through the short term with southern areas seeing little
reprieve from the heat.

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

No big changes will be noted in the extended period. The ridge of
high pressure over the southern United States will tend to be
strongest in the southwest/southern Plains and weakest over the
southeast states. Given this, fronts tracking to the north of the
ridge will sag toward the Tennessee Valley, with one such front
coming close to northeast Arkansas by the end of the period.

For much of the week, any precipitation should be isolated, and it
will be hot. While readings will be a little above average, not
looking for excessive heat with afternoon heat indices from the mid
90s to just above 100 degrees.

As the aforementioned front comes into the picture Thursday/Friday,
have better chances for rain. However, looks like most precipitation
be be over the northern counties nearest the front, with not much
happening in southern Arkansas.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 70 88 72 / 60 60 50 30
Camden AR 92 75 93 75 / 30 30 30 20
Harrison AR 84 69 86 70 / 60 50 50 20
Hot Springs AR 92 75 91 75 / 50 30 40 20
Little Rock AR 91 74 91 75 / 60 40 50 30
Monticello AR 91 75 90 76 / 40 30 40 20
Mount Ida AR 91 73 90 74 / 40 30 40 20
Mountain Home AR 85 70 88 71 / 60 60 50 20
Newport AR 88 72 89 73 / 60 60 50 30
Pine Bluff AR 90 74 90 75 / 50 40 50 30
Russellville AR 89 73 90 74 / 60 40 50 20
Searcy AR 89 73 89 73 / 60 50 50 30
Stuttgart AR 89 74 89 75 / 60 40 50 30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
429 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible overnight...generally over
portions of central and NRN AR. Have mentioned primarily VCTS as
a result...though may have to mentioned in TEMPO or prevailing if
potential to impact specific terminals increases. The potential
for precip activity will continue through Sat afternoon as
well...with some MVFR or lower flight conditions possible. Some
patchy fog may also be seen during the morning hrs...especially in
areas that see lightest winds combined with recent precip.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

.Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...59

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.AVIATION...08/18Z Taf Cycle

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016
)

AVIATION...08/00z Taf Cycle

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
711 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.AVIATION...08/00z Taf Cycle

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

Short Term...59 / Long Term...66

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.AVIATION...

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. Readings may be a touch below average toward the
Missouri border this weekend near the aforementioned front.

Aviation...226

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

333 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and
southern plains Today and Tonight.

Early this morning an area of elevated thunderstorms were developing
across southeast NE due to weak isentropic lift. These storms were
back building to the northwest but were slowly shifting southeast.
The north central and northeast counties may see an isolated
thunderstorm during the morning hours.

Today and Tonight, most numerical models show any weak outflow
boundaries washing out through the day. The WRF, HRRR and RAP models
show the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this morning
across the CWA but these should diminish as the boundary layer mixes
deeper.

The WRF solutions along with the HRRR forecast isolated
thunderstorms to develop across portions of east central and early
this evening across portions of northeast and east central KS ahead
of minor MCV that develops across northeast NE this morning and
tracks southeast. There is a very weak cap so any type of minor
ascent could cause a few isolated storms to develop during the late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. The remainder of the
night will remain dry.

Highs Today will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. Surface dewpoints
will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the afternoon hours
which will cause heat indices to rise into the mid 90s to around 100
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

Sunday afternoon and much of Monday should remain dry with a mid to
upper ridge advecting overhead. Should mix to around the 800mb
level on both days which should help our temps to rise into the
mid 90s. With ample sunshine and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s, heat index values will be hot but should remain under
advisory level criteria. Winds will likely increase ahead of the
deepening North Pac Low as it advects into the Northern Plains
region.

This system leaves questions about what type of weather we see late
Monday evening into Tuesday morning and how much. ECMWF and GFS are
coming into good agreement on positioning of major features, but the
NAM is slowing the arrival of the cold boundary perhaps lifting the
overall system to a more northerly track quicker. Regardless, at
this time, it is hard to say with great certainty on what specific
type of storms will occur and coverage. Better large scale ascent
is focused to the north of the CWA. Overall hint is that the cold
push is modified and slows down as it enters the Central Plains.
This system eventually sets up a stationary boundary across the
region that allows for precip chances off and on the bulk of the
week ahead. But for Monday night into Tuesday, storms may have a
hard time getting going initially as the 700mb level temps seem to
be at or above 12C. Additionally, if the cold push is weak, then
with weak forcing, it may be too hard to get storms to form this
far south until later into the night as a LLJ noses into the area.
Perhaps storms become are more elevated and form a complex that
then propagates east with time. Then into the day on Tuesday
better shear profiles seem to take shape for the rest of the
period. With a transition in the upper levels to a quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow regime, there could be periods where storm
chances are greater through at least Thursday, but hard to
pinpoint at this time with any shortwave advecting overhead.
Bottom line, some storms could be strong to severe given a
conditionally unstable environment in place. High temps remain in
the 90s with no strong advection either way in place for any
prolonged period of time.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any
convective activity. Chances at the terminals are low for tsra for
inclusion at this time. Winds light east becoming southeast around
10 kts by 15Z.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...53

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...53

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with only
brief reductions in conditions due to any localized thunderstorm
activity. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
periodically affect terminals with potential for brief wind gusts
and heavy rain. Otherwise, overcast mid/high clouds expected with
light SW winds that will be variable at times.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
429 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
429 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

.Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...59

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.AVIATION...08/18Z Taf Cycle

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. As the period begins, readings may be a touch below average
toward the Missouri border near the aforementioned front.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...226 / Long Term...46

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016
)

AVIATION...08/00z Taf Cycle

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
711 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.AVIATION...08/00z Taf Cycle

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
252 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, and if any would be strong to severe storm. Also due to
heat and humidity, heat advisories may be needed.

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday

Saturday and Sunday...

Monday through Thursday...

Short Term...59 / Long Term...66

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.AVIATION...

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Temperatures will be near to a little above average for much of the
period. Readings may be a touch below average toward the
Missouri border this weekend near the aforementioned front.

Aviation...226

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

613 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and
southern plains Today and Tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds from the
southeast will generally be under 10 kts. The chances for any TSRA
are too low to mention at a given terminal at this time.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Heller

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week.
As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above
average for most of next week.

.DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop
this afternoon near the International border. Otherwise...skies were
clear to partly cloudy across southeast Arizona. A drier westerly
flow developing in response to a system passing through the northern
tier states will keep deeper moisture south and east of the region.
Without this moisture in place, shower and thunderstorm activity
will remain very limited through next week. The drier air will also
help keep afternoon temperatures several degrees above normal.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z.
VFR conditions through the period for most of the area with isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA continuing thru about 10/03Z, mainly across the White
Mountains NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG.
Surface winds will remain wly/nwly at about 10-15 kts with some
stronger winds in the Gila River Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain
driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours, then
becoming wly/nwly winds midday Sunday. Dry conditions are expected
area wide Sunday.

.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms will continue into
early this evening, mainly across the White Mountains and along the
International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will
then prevail through Thursday, with only a slight chance of storms
near the international border on Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may
approach 20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and
International border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow
terrain at 15 mph or less.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
325 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend and next week.
As this occurs, temperatures will remain several degrees above
average for most of next week.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow regime will remain over northern
Arizona through Friday with fair and breezy weather on the way. A
passing weather disturbance will bring stronger winds from Sunday
into Monday producing a heightened fire weather threat.

.DISCUSSION...Models insist that high pressure aloft will persist
across Texas and northern Mexico into next weekend. At the same
time, models show a series of low pressure systems moving across
the Pacific Northwest. Look for this pattern to bring near normal
daytime temperatures, breezy daytime winds and dry weather to
northern Arizona over the coming week.

The only concern is a heightened fire weather threat from Sunday
into Monday due to stronger winds. The strongest in the series of
Pacific Northwest low pressure system will brush Arizona on
Sunday. The resultant stronger pressure gradient will produce
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph from the
Mogollon Rim northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
Sunday. Behind the low on Monday, northern Arizona will still see
southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts to over 30
mph so fire danger will still be a concern.

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly
clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty southwest winds
will persist into this evening and develop again Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin
this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area into
early next week. The windiest day will be Sunday, and a Red Flag
Warning has been issued for the northern portions of the district.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry weather will continue with less wind
and near average temperatures.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST
Sunday FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140.

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WESTERH...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
158 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...To Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and stable airmass will remain across much of the desert
southwest through next week, giving the region a significant break
in the monsoon. Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will
remain near, or a few degrees above normal through the entire period.

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through
at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model
suites and virtually all of their respective ensemble members
continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across
the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same region
under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next week. To the
south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly are expected
to prevail over all the desert southwest through the entire period.
These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off to our south
along the International Border and points south. Thus, convective
activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually non-existent
through at least Friday. There continues to be some indication on the
GFS model output that moisture will begin to spread back northward
into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies begin to retreat
northward, with an increase in moisture levels possible over our CWA
by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our high temperatures in a
tight range through the entire period, with lower desert highs
remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range. Although overnight lows
are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-mid 80 range through all
of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s) will likely make it feel a
bit cooler during the middle part of next week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Clear skies and erratic winds to continue for the afternoon
(especially for KPHX), before settling into slightly elevated west
directions during the evening and lingering into the overnight hours.
Afternoon/early evening gustiness up to 20kts is possible. A weather
system passing through the Great Basin to our north will allow for
winds to take up their typical diurnal headings, with a more
pronounced and sustained easterly drift into the Phoenix area
terminals early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 10/08z.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Weather system passing through the Great Basin to our north will
spread even drier air into the SE CA deserts, allowing for generally
clear skies and zero chances for any storm activity. Winds to favor
S-SW headings for KBLH with another round of afternoon gustiness.
Winds will turn westerly for KIPL with some elevated sundowner
breezes lingering into the overnight hours. No aviation concerns at
the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
An extended break in the Monsoon activity will continue into work
week, with unseasonably strong westerly flow aloft and dewpoints
generally below the typical Monsoonal values of 50 to 60 degrees.
Conditions look to be at their driest Monday as a strong trough
passes through the Great Basin to our north and spreads a drier
airmass into the Southwest region. With temperatures hovering near a
warm seasonal average, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall to
around 10% over lower elevations, and 15-20% in higher terrain.
Overnight recovery will only be fair. Occasionally breezy southwest
afternoon winds will affect the region, however speeds will remain
well below any critical thresholds. Overall, weather conditions will
mirror a typical early/mid June versus mid July.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...Percha
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1235 PM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

Our extended break in the monsoon is still in the forecast through
at least the end of the upcoming workweek. All of the global model
suites, and virtually all of their respective ensemble members
continue to move a very deep upper trof (for July) eastward across
the Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, then keep that same
region under overall long-wave trofing through the rest of next
week. To the south of this upper trof, unseasonably strong westerly
are expected to prevail over all the desert southwest through the
entire period. These westerlies will keep monsoon moisture well off
to our south, along the International Border and points south. Thus,
convective activity/chances for measurable rain will be virtually
non-existent through at least Friday. There continues to be some
indication on the GFS model output that moisture will begin to
spread back northward into SE AZ next Saturday as the westerlies
begin to retreat northward, with an increase in moisture levels
possible over our cwa by next Sunday. Model guidance is keeping our
high temperatures in a tight range through the entire period, with
lower desert highs remaining mainly in the 107-112 degree range.
Although overnight lows are expected to remain mostly in the mid 70-
mid 80 range through all of next week, lower dewpoints (in the 30s)
will likely make it feel a bit cooler during the middle part of next
week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Skies to be generally clear next 24 hours at all sites; there is no
threat of weather of any kind through the weekend including storms or
gusty outflow winds. Otherwise winds will hold onto typical diurnal
tendencies. Again, we may see some afternoon and early evening
gustiness out of the west today but really there are no aviation
concerns for the near future.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with
skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH
next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today.
Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during
the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No
aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...We should see a few thunderstorms again mainly south
and southeast of Tucson this afternoon. Storms will become even
fewer and farther between over the next several days as we see
additional drying. As this occurs, temperatures will climb to
several degrees above average for most of next week.

.DISCUSSION...A drier weather pattern will remain in place this
weekend through the early one-half of next week. Still enough
moisture in place today for a few mountain showers or thunderstorms
well south and east of Tucson. That said, the current forecast
looked on track with above normal day time temperatures on tap this
weekend. Please refer to the additional sections in this product for
more details.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z.
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns
NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind
will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning,
becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind
will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain
driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers or thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon, mainly across the White Mountains and along the
International border from Nogales to Douglas. Dry conditions will
then prevail through next Friday. 20-ft westerly winds may approach
20 mph Sunday and Monday afternoons near the NM and International
border areas. Otherwise, wind will generally follow terrain at 15
mph or less.

.PREV DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the
moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern
today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and
southeast of Tucson.

As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the
region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern periphery
of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will still be
strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures will run
several degrees above average for much of the coming week.

The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across
northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to
southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We
should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but a
lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center.
The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week,
while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high position
early the following week. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive
and both increase our chances of one or more mechanisms bringing the
deeper moisture back.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
932 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
921 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...Models promise that low pressure will remain
centered over the Pacific Northwest with high pressure stretching
across Texas/northern Mexico into next weekend. This pattern will
continue to bring near normal daytime temperatures, breezy daytime
winds and dry weather.

The only real concern weather wise is a heightened fire weather
threat on Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough will brush
Arizona bringing southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to 30 to
40 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward each day. The strongest of
these winds will be on Sunday where a Fire Weather Watch is in
effect.

Looking to the future...A few model runs hinting at the return of
the monsoon by late next weekend but others continue the dry
weather. Keep your fingers crossed.

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and clear
skies for the 24 hour forecast period. SW sfc winds 15-25kts most
areas from 18z-01z today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A trough moving through the northern Great Basin
this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area. The
windiest day will be Sunday, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for the northern portions of the district.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less
wind and near average temperatures.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning
through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140.

PUBLIC...McCollum/Bohlin
AVIATION...KD/Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
830 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another very quiet morning across our cwa as light westerly flow
through the column continues to keep monsoon moisture well off to
our south and east. Very warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere (500mb temp -5.7C on the 12z KPSR sounding) and lingering
low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints near 50 degrees) helped to keep
overnight lows up a bit across south-central AZ this morning, with
Phoenix Sky Harbor reporting a low of 87. A dry forecast is still on
tap for today with highs across the lower deserts still forecast to
end up in the 108-112 degree range. Based on current trends,
inherited forecasts are still looking good, and no updates are
planned at this time.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...

Weather balloon soundings Friday evening continued to detect remnant
monsoon moisture over parts of southeast AZ, with continued moisture
seeps from Mexico into that area this weekend. This moisture would
be enough for more mountain thunderstorms if it weren`t for an
atypically warm mid level atmosphere. Typical 500 mb temps for July
and August run about minus 6-7 degrees C. For our forecast area,
southeast CA to south central AZ, it will remain hot and dry this
weekend.

For next week, low level westerly winds kick in a little stronger
with more airmass drying expected. In fact surface dewpoints over
our southwest and south central AZ desert zones, including Phoenix
will likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Extended range models forecast monsoon moisture to push north again
into southern AZ from Mexico next Saturday, but that`s still a long
way off. Otherwise mostly clear skies with slightly above normal
afternoon temperatures are forecast next week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with
skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH
next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today.
Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during
the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No
aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
435 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry weather expected across the lower deserts next 24 hours with
skies to be clear. Winds should favor the south to southwest at KBLH
next 24 hours with some afternoon gustiness possible again today.
Morning southeast winds at KIPL will shift around to the west during
the early evening hours with a few gusts to 20kt possible. No
aviation concerns at the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system along the west coast and the
high pressure ridge south of Arizona will keep us in a dry
southwesterly flow regime through next Friday. A trough moving
through the western states will bring stronger winds on Sunday
with good chances for critical fire weather conditions. In the
longer term outlook there`s continued early signs the high
pressure ridge to our south may migrate northward possibly opening
up the door to Monsoon moisture by the third week in July.

.DISCUSSION...A long wave trough remains anchored along the west
coast with the subtropical ridge south of Arizona. This pattern
brings dry air into the state lasting through next week Friday.
We continue to have high confidence in this extended dry break in
the Monsoon weather pattern.

On Sunday, a short wave trough will move through the western
states increasing afternoon wind speeds likely exceeding our
critical fire weather thresholds for most areas north of the
interstate 40 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
this time period.

Looking into the extended outlook, the American GFS weather model
continues to show early positive signs that the subtropical ridge
to our south will migrate northward to a position more favorable
for Monsoon moisture advection. This potential pattern shift to
wetter weather may develop in the third week of July. Our confidence
this far out however is only fair and precise timing of the
additional moisture into northern Arizona will have to wait until
the timer period gets closer.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less
wind and near average temperatures.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140.

PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather will continue with less
wind and near average temperatures.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140.

PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
301 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...With weak flow and drier air fighting to keep the
moisture away, we continue in a very low grade monsoon pattern
today. Enough moisture for a few afternoon storms south and
southeast of Tucson.

As the broad troughiness enhances the westerly flow across the
region, we will lose even that by Monday. At the southern
periphery of trough influence, our heights and thicknesses will
still be strong. Combined with the drying trend, our temperatures
will run several degrees above average for much of the coming
week.

The unseasonable pattern will even lower moisture levels across
northwest Mexico, with most organized convection retreating to
southern Sonora and southwest Chihuahua early in the new week. We
should see some moisture return the second half of next week, but
a lot will depend on where we can consolidate a new high center.
The GFS has some hopeful lower level surge signals late next week,
while the ECMWF restarts the monsoon with a favorable high
position early the following week. These scenarios are not
mutually exclusive and both increase our chances of one or more
mechanisms bringing the deeper moisture back.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z.
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies this morning with isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA developing this afternoon, mainly across the White Mtns
NE of KSAD and along the Int`l border from KOLS to KDUG. SFC wind
will generally be terrain driven at less than 10 kts this morning,
becoming wly/nwly at 10-15 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind
will prevail through the Gila Valley near KSAD. Light and terrain
driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

Meyer/French

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
256 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Over the coming week low pressure will remain anchored
along the west coast of the United State while high pressure
wobbles over Texas. The result will be a dry southwest flow and a
continuation of the break in the monsoon across northern Arizona.
Nothing on the forecast horizon in terms of the return of
moisture, stay tuned.

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions.
Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty
winds will develop again late saturday afternoon.

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...The forecast models still show the
pattern of high pressure over Texas/northern Mexico and low
pressure across the Pacific Northwest hanging tough well into next
week. Overall look for breezy afternoons, warm days and dry
conditions across northern Arizona. Some moisture will linger over
the White Mountains on Saturday for a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

The only real concern over the next seven days is an elevated fire
weather threat on Sunday for northern Arizona. Warm and dry
conditions will remain. In addition, a fast moving weather
disturbance and associated strengthening pressure gradient will
move through the western states. For northern Arizona this will
mean sustained west to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range
with gusts to 35 mph. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Sunday.

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday
morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and gusty southwest winds each
afternoon this weekend. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are
possible in the White Mountains Saturday. Critical fire weather
conditions are forecast for some of our northern zones Sunday, and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry
conditions are forecast through the period.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140.

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast under dry quiet conditions.
Temperatures are on track, with winds decreasing overnight. Gusty
winds will develop again late saturday afternoon.

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hours. Expect gusty southwest winds saturday
morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

Monday through Wednesday...Near average temperatures and dry
conditions are forecast through the period.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104>107-109>114-139-140.

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
940 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains
and far southeastern sections Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions will prevail this weekend and next week with above
average temperatures.

.DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening were mainly across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. As of
930 pm activity had ended across the areas with debris cloud cover
across eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. PW values this
evening still holding above 1" from Tucson south and southeast. Will
run out a quick update for overnight trends.

Lowering PW values on Saturday with upper high over SW New Mexico
will limit any thunderstorm activity to along the International
border from Nogales east and across the White mountains. Highs on
Saturday similar or slightly warmer than today.

Check previous discussion below for details on the remainder of the
forecast package through next Friday. Definitely not monsoonal like.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/00Z.
Scattered debris cloud cover from KTUS S and SE will continue to
slowly dissipate. VFR conditions will occur Saturday, except for a
few -TSRA/-SHRA NE of KSAD and across the Chiricahua Mountains NE of
KDUG. SFC wind Saturday afternoon wly/nwly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. The strongest wind will be near KSAD. Surface wind will be
variable in direction at less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A few thunderstorms may occur Saturday afternoon
across the White Mountains northeast of Safford, and across the
Chiricahua Mountains in eastern Cochise County. Dry conditions will
then prevail Saturday night through next Friday. 20-foot winds Sunday
and Monday may approach 20 mph in some locales. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be terrain driven at less than 15 mph.

.PREV DISCUSSION...Increasing westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday
due to a fairly tight mid-level gradient will continue the drying
process. This pattern should also translate into gusty generally
westerly winds during the afternoon hours. However, wind speeds will
remain below wind advisory criteria. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly
identical Tuesday through Friday with depicting a sprawling high
pressure ridge aloft to encompass the southwestern CONUS.

Have noted that the GFS was more robust versus the ECMWF/CMC with
the depiction of light liquid rain amounts to encroach upon far
southeastern sections periodically Wednesday thru Friday. Given
the progged synoptic pattern, have opted for the drier ECMWF/CMC
solutions for this forecast package. Thus, expect dry conditions to
continue across southeast Arizona during the middle and latter part
of next week.

Expect only very minor daily temp changes Saturday through next
Friday, with high temps to generally be at least a few degs below
normal through the period.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
900 PM MST FRI JUL 8 2016

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...

Sunday through next Friday...

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Percha
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/Kuhlman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and
southern plains Today and Tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

VFR ceilings over the area should remain SCT to BKN. Winds from the
southwest will be under 10kts through the period. Any chances for
TSRA are too low to mention at this time.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Heller

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

334 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.Discussion...
Current synopsis shows a broad upper level trough passing across the
northeastern United States and extending southward to the
Appalachian Mountains while ridge is in place over the mid section
of the country. At the surface the Bermuda ridge is extending
westward across the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping moisture and
dewpoints high across the CWA. Intense surface heating and a
slightly sufficient low/mid level moisture has resulted in scattered
convection again this afternoon. These storms shouldn`t produce much
more than brief heavy rainfall and wind gusts to 30 mph but
lightning could be frequent at times. Storms will dissipate with
loss of daytime heating, only to return again Sunday as the cycle
repeats.

There will be a difference Sunday into Monday however as a
weak upper develops and tracks over the lower Mississippi Valley.
This will further weaken subsidence over the region and subsequently
increase sh/ts coverage. Have kept previous forecast pops in the 40
to 60% range for those days which is slightly above guidance. The
upper trough will diminish late in the day Monday and weak high
pressure will try to develop east of the region. This will keep
moisture levels high and in combination with typical summertime
heat, persistent daytime thunderstorms can be expected. Temperatures
will not fluctuate much from day to day.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

Lake, sea and river breezes along with outflow boundaries increased
the chances of convection near KMSY, KHUM, KNEW, KASD and KGPT this
afternoon. However, atmosphere is worked over and convection has
decreased. As a result, the tempo group with TS ending around 22z is
on track. Once again ceilings should clear out for much of the
overnight hours into early Sunday morning. However...scattered cu
field may develop over taf sites by 13z sunday preceding better
coverage of convection after 17z sunday which may affect all of our
taf sites. 18

.MARINE...
Surface pressure over northeast and north central gulf will maintain
a southwest to south flow over the coastal waters through next week.
Will continue to see the typical diurnal wind increase/decrease as
nocturnal winds rise to 10 to 15 knots which will carry over into
the morning hours and then drop down the rest of the day closer to
10 knots or slightly less. Nocturnal sh/ts will also develop during
the late night and early morning hours through the next several
days. 18

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 91 73 92 / 20 50 20 40
BTR 76 93 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
ASD 76 91 76 93 / 20 50 20 40
MSY 80 91 79 90 / 20 50 20 40
GPT 76 90 77 90 / 20 50 20 30
PQL 76 91 75 93 / 30 40 30 30

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
148 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.AVIATION...

...18z Taf Issuance...

Lake, sea and river breezes along with outflow boundaries have increased
the chances of convection near KMSY, KHUM, KNEW, KASD and KGPT
this afternoon. As a result, added tempo group with TS through
22z in taf forecast. Once again ceilings should clear out for
much of the overnight hours into early Sunday morning.
However...scattered cu field may develop over taf sites by 13z
sunday.

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA have been ongoing North of keld since
earlier this morning, but development has shifted South to near the
aforementioned terminal. This has resulted in the insertion of a
TEMPO group for a few hours. A VCTS at ktxk will be maintained as
activity could near that terminal as well. Otherwise, MVFR CIGS
have been slow to scatter out but continues to do so. Conditions
should improve to VFR within the next hour or so. Light South to
Southwest and at times variable wind conditions are expected for
this TAF cycle. Chances for fog appears to be low as BKN-OVC VFR
decks developing overnight /can not rule out a few terminals
experiencing MVFR CIGS/ will discourage adequate radiational
cooling. A few computer models hint at -SHRA/-TSRA developing
overnight particularly near keld and ktxk once again. Will
therefore hold on to VCTS/VCSH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Localized cluster of convection has persisted over a good chunk of
sw AR this morning. Although normally redevelopment would be
expected on a hot summer day, seeing nothing on either observed
12z soundings nor on mos guidance or other data to support this
convection continuing long at least more than isold coverage.
Thus, will maintain low pops with chance coverage for sw AR and Se
Ok and isold further south today. Temps should rise about 10
degrees with mid and a few upper 90s possible this aftn. Temps
just outside convection in sw AR rising into mid and upper 80s at
10 am, leaving only a small data sparse area where rainfall may
prevent temps from reaching well into 90s, but too small an area
to update entire fcst attm. Will keep an eye on trends up that way
but will not make any changes to fcst attm./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection over w TX/nrn AR this morning sending quite a bit of CI
streaming in over the ArkLaTex. Upper ridge fcst to continue to
break down today by disturbances in increasing nw flow aloft,
which will aid additional convection and cloud cover for our
region. This, along with lower afternoon relative humidities, will
keep us out of trouble as far as a Heat Advisory is concerned. A
few sites, particularly over n LA, may briefly see heat index
values reach 105, but most sites will remain below.

Models more aggressive with bringing a pronounced upper trof swd
along the nern/ern periphery of the wwd retreating ridge into our
region by later this afternoon and into Sunday. Consequently, have
increased PoPs during this timeframe from previous fcst packages.
Trof looks to slowly drift ewd through Monday, gradually tapering
our rain chances back down to chicken 20s.

Upper ridge looks to stay w of our region as the upper pattern
remains somewhat unsettled through the work week. Additionally,
the sea breeze appears to be making a comeback as well, which will
keep PoPs in for our srn portions of the region. In other good
news, temps look to hover near guidance in the mid 90s, and
although arguably hot, not expecting to need advisories attm.

/12/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 95 78 96 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 77 92 76 94 / 20 40 20 20
DEQ 74 93 75 95 / 20 30 20 10
TXK 76 93 77 96 / 20 30 20 10
ELD 75 92 76 95 / 20 40 20 20
TYR 77 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 10
GGG 77 95 77 96 / 10 30 10 10
LFK 77 95 77 95 / 10 30 10 10

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

29/07/12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

/12/

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

29/07/12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

/12/

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

29/07/12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1218 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

/12/

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

29/07/12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Localized cluster of convection has persisted over a good chunk of
sw AR this morning. Although normally redevelopment would be
expected on a hot summer day, seeing nothing on either observed
12z soundings nor on mos guidance or other data to support this
convection continuing long at least more than isold coverage.
Thus, will maintain low pops with chance coverage for sw AR and Se
Ok and isold further south today. Temps should rise about 10
degrees with mid and a few upper 90s possible this aftn. Temps
just outside convection in sw AR rising into mid and upper 80s at
10 am, leaving only a small data sparse area where rainfall may
prevent temps from reaching well into 90s, but too small an area
to update entire fcst attm. Will keep an eye on trends up that way
but will not make any changes to fcst attm./VII/.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

AVIATION...
Convection continues to develop well north of our terminal
sites...across Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas along an
elevated thermal boundary. This activity is well elevated but
should produce an outflow boundary that could come south later
today and be the focus for additional convection. The most favored
terminal for this activity would be the TXK/ELD terminals and for
this reason...have inserted VCTS for this afternoon through the
overnight hours tonight. Cannot rule out this possibility at the
MLU terminal either but will allow the next fcstr to try to
identify just how far south this boundary can come south towards
the I-20 corridor later today.

Otherwise we are dealing with some reduced vsbys in the form of
patchy ground fog at the LFK terminal...this despite extensive
cirrus blowoff from last nights convection across western Ok and
the Tx Hill Country. Low level pressure gradient is not as strong
this morning with low level flow more from the southwest. This is
not allowing for the MVFR ceilings to develop much like we have
seen the last several morning. Still should see a developing cu
field areawide later this morning and continue into the evening
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

/12/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 77 95 78 / 20 20 30 10
MLU 96 77 92 76 / 20 20 40 20
DEQ 93 74 93 75 / 40 20 30 20
TXK 95 76 93 77 / 30 20 30 20
ELD 94 75 92 76 / 30 20 40 20
TYR 96 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 10
GGG 97 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 10
LFK 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 10

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18z taf issuance.

.AVIATION...
VFR & SW winds 6-10 kts this afternoon, diminishing to less than
5 kts after sunset. ISO SHRA manly confined to I-10 south late
this morning, but expected to pick up in coverage this afternoon.
Keeping VCSH for AEX and VCTS for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA for this.
Otherwise, VFR expected overnight into SAT morning.

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LCH 93 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 40 20
BPT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
953 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...A few showers and a thunderstorms are ongoing across the
coastal zones and temps are generally in the mid 80s area wide.
This is in line with the previous forecast and no changes are
needed at this time.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
KLCH radar shows some isltd convection developing along the coast,
while satellite images show high clouds spreading in from the
west. High pres aloft will continue to weaken with the approach of
a shortwave over the Red River valley, but overall expect VFR to
prevail through tonight. Some isltd to widely sctd SHRA/TSRA will
develop with daytime heating and kept VC mention at all sites
after 15-16Z. Sfc high pres will remain over the nrn Gulf
resulting in S-SW winds around 10 kt or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure centered around Florida continues to ridge
across the Gulf South and into the forecast area this early
morning. With this, onshore flow off the Gulf of Mexico also
continues and is allowing for ample low level moisture and humid
conditions. Air temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with
relative humidity values over 90 percent. The latest upper air
sounding from KLCH at 09/00z shows a little bit of a more moist
atmospheric profile with higher precipitable water and mid level
relative humidity values. In this humid air mass, a few nocturnal
showers have formed over the Gulf and moving just onshore before
dissipating, and this trend will continue through early morning.

The upper level ridge that has been over the region is expected to
begin retrograding back to the west today, with a short wave
rotating between the upper level ridge and developing upper level
trough over the eastern U.S. will help form and upper level
weakness over the region, that will then persist into middle part
of next week.

Enough upper level ridging to hang around today to keep rain
chances in the isolated category, with the majority of the
activity occurring near the sea breeze during max heating.
Temperatures look to be near values from the past couple of days,
and likewise, afternoon max apparent temperatures will be about
the same, and from 103F to 107F degrees, and below advisory
criteria.

As weakness develop aloft, rain chances will increase beginning on
Sunday, to chance category, and near climo values, as typical
summertime scattered, mainly afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible into next week. With the increase in cloud cover
and convection, temperatures will also be in line with climo
values.

Rua

MARINE...
Mainly southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots occurring across the
coastal waters this early morning...with a few nocturnal showers.
Surface high pressure is centered around Florida and is ridging
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into the coastal
waters. This general weather pattern will continue for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. Therefore, light to
moderate onshore flow will also continue with seas mainly 1 to 3
feet. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be on
the increase as a weakness aloft develops over the region.

Rua

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LCH 93 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 40 20
BPT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...05

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
953 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF Issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

Rua

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LCH 93 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 40 20
BPT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...05

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
837 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
There were not any issues with the upper air release this
morning. The 12z sounding depicted a moist and unstable
atmospheric profile that was similar to what was observed
yesterday. The precipitable water value was 1.88 inches. Winds
were mainly light westerly up to 500 mb, and then north to
northeast above that level. 11

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 74 91 73 / 30 20 50 20
BTR 94 76 93 75 / 30 20 50 20
ASD 94 76 91 76 / 40 20 50 20
MSY 94 79 91 78 / 40 20 50 20
GPT 92 76 90 77 / 40 20 50 20
PQL 93 76 91 75 / 30 30 40 30

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF Issuance.

.AVIATION...
KLCH radar shows some isltd convection developing along the coast,
while satellite images show high clouds spreading in from the
west. High pres aloft will continue to weaken with the approach of
a shortwave over the Red River valley, but overall expect VFR to
prevail through tonight. Some isltd to widely sctd SHRA/TSRA will
develop with daytime heating and kept VC mention at all sites
after 15-16Z. Sfc high pres will remain over the nrn Gulf
resulting in S-SW winds around 10 kt or less.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

Rua

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LCH 93 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 40 20
BPT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...24

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF Issuance.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

Rua

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LCH 93 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 40 20
BPT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...24

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection continues to develop well north of our terminal
sites...across Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas along an
elevated thermal boundary. This activity is well elevated but
should produce an outflow boundary that could come south later
today and be the focus for additional convection. The most favored
terminal for this activity would be the TXK/ELD terminals and for
this reason...have inserted VCTS for this afternoon through the
overnight hours tonight. Cannot rule out this possibility at the
MLU terminal either but will allow the next fcstr to try to
identify just how far south this boundary can come south towards
the I-20 corridor later today.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

/12/

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

/12/

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
349 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure centered around Florida continues to ridge
across the Gulf South and into the forecast area this early
morning. With this, onshore flow off the Gulf of Mexico also
continues and is allowing for ample low level moisture and humid
conditions. Air temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with
relative humidity values over 90 percent. The latest upper air
sounding from KLCH at 09/00z shows a little bit of a more moist
atmospheric profile with higher precipitable water and mid level
relative humidity values. In this humid air mass, a few nocturnal
showers have formed over the Gulf and moving just onshore before
dissipating, and this trend will continue through early morning.

Rua

.MARINE...
Mainly southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots occurring across the
coastal waters this early morning...with a few nocturnal showers.
Surface high pressure is centered around Florida and is ridging
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into the coastal
waters. This general weather pattern will continue for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. Therefore, light to
moderate onshore flow will also continue with seas mainly 1 to 3
feet. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be on
the increase as a weakness aloft develops over the region.

Rua

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LCH 93 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 40 20
BPT 94 79 93 78 / 20 10 30 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...07

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection over w TX/nrn AR this morning sending quite a bit of CI
streaming in over the ArkLaTex. Upper ridge fcst to continue to
break down today by disturbances in increasing nw flow aloft,
which will aid additional convection and cloud cover for our
region. This, along with lower afternoon relative humidities, will
keep us out of trouble as far as a Heat Advisory is concerned. A
few sites, particularly over n LA, may briefly see heat index
values reach 105, but most sites will remain below.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will continue through much of the 09/06Z TAF
period. Still seeing a bit of a sct cu field that has redeveloped
over NE TX/N LA/SW AR...with a dense cirrus shield spilling SE
into the region from convection over Cntrl/Ern OK into Nrn AR.
Could still see low MVFR cigs develop over the wrn sections of E
TX as well as Deep E TX after 10Z...with the potential for
isolated areas of LIFR cigs/patchy FG near LFK around daybreak.
Any cigs should gradually lift and scatter out by 15-16Z over E
TX...with a sct cu field expected to develop elsewhere by/after
18Z. Depending on if the convection over Ncntrl AR is able to send
any mesoscale bndrys SSW into Cntrl AR...additional sct
convection may be focused farther SSW Saturday afternoon as a weak
upper trough axis slides S into extreme NE TX/SW AR late in the
day. For now...have left out mention of VCTS for the SW AR
terminals given some uncertainty although isolated to possibly sct
convection may affect SW AR during the afternoon/evening. S winds
3-7kts tonight will become WSW 6-10kts after 15Z. /15/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 77 95 78 / 20 20 20 10
MLU 96 77 92 76 / 20 20 30 20
DEQ 93 74 93 75 / 40 20 30 20
TXK 95 76 93 77 / 30 20 30 20
ELD 94 75 92 76 / 30 20 30 20
TYR 96 77 95 76 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 97 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 10

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
247 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak upper ridging beginning to build back westward toward the
Rockies with Bermuda surface high continuing to control the
weather across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Airmass has been a
little more conducive to convection over the past 24 hours than in
previous days. Afternoon convection yesterday provided some brief
relief from the oppressive conditions as temperatures fell into
the upper 70s. This morning, there is again isolated convection
over the coastal waters and along the Louisiana coast.
Temperatures at 2 am ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s across
the area.

.SHORT TERM...

Impulse currently over the middle Mississippi River Valley will
drift southward into the area over the next 48 hours. The slightly
cooler mid level temperatures associated with this feature should
allow areal coverage of afternoon convection to increase for the
next few days from what has been seen even on Friday. Will be
carrying 30-40 percent pops today, 40-60 percent on Sunday, and
40-50 percent on Monday. Most convection should dissipate near, or
shortly after, sunset.

The additional convection and associated cloud cover should hold
high temperatures down a few degrees from earlier in the week with
most areas in the 90 to 95 range. Can not rule out one or two
locations nearing the Heat Advisory threshold of a Heat Index of
108 degrees briefly before convection develops, but threat not
large enough to justify an additional Heat Advisory.

.LONG TERM...

If there is going to be a dry day during the extended period, it
might be Tuesday. Overall, expect daily development of scattered
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours, dying
out around sunset over land areas. Should not be much day to day
change in temperatures outside of areas that receive convection
around midday.

.AVIATION...

Ceilings will begin to develop today over much of the area starting
out at around BKN015 during the morning, lifting to BKN040 then to
BKN050. This will be mixed with SCT sky cover as well. A few sh/ts
should also be around. Will set a few TEMPO groups for those that
should see the best chance of getting a TS. This should be terminals
from MCB to MSY eastward. Once again ceilings should clear out for
much of the overnight hours.

.MARINE...

Surface high that has been over the northern gulf will move east
slightly. It will still keep flow onshore throughout the forecast.
But with a more southeasterly flow coupled with the weaker higher
inversion due to the high backing off, sh/ts will begin to develop a
little easier. Will continue to see the typical diurnal wind
increase/decrease as nocturnal winds rise to 10 to 15 knots which
will carry over into the morning hours and then drop down the rest
of the day closer to 10 knots or slightly less. Nocturnal sh/ts will
also develop during the late night and early morning hours through
the next several days.

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Mstly clr skies thru the ovrnght hrs. Otherwise VFR most lctns
although 024 ceilings can be xpcd alng the cst at times.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 937 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on target. Updated ZFP sent to remove first
period temporal wording. No changes to the grids at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

AVIATION...
A few storms remaining ovr srn La this eve. These storms are xpcd
to fall apart ovr the nxt hr or so w/ skies remaining mstly clr
thru the ovrnght. VFR wx.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...The area remains on the edge of an upper level ridge
that is centered over Northern Mexico, however the eastern flank
over the northern gulf coast is gradually weakening. There is a slight
increase in convection today when compared to over the past
couple of days as the ridge has somewhat weakened. This trend will
continue into the weekend. While widespread showers and storms are
not expected by Sunday, a healthy dose of scattered convection
along a sea breeze may occur as a modest upper trough moves across
the eastern sections of the country. As convection and cloud cover
increase high temps will also remain at or near climo values.

Next week the area will remain on the eastern edge of the upper
ridge which will allow for isolated to scattered diurnal
convection. The sub-tropical ridge will also remain anchored over
the Atlantic keeping the humid south flow in place.

MARINE...A ridge will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the
northern gulf into next week. This will keep a light to moderate
onshore flow in place.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 77 96 76 / 20 10 20 10
LCH 93 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 94 78 93 78 / 30 10 30 10
BPT 94 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 10

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will continue through much of the 09/06Z TAF
period. Still seeing a bit of a sct cu field that has redeveloped
over NE TX/N LA/SW AR...with a dense cirrus shield spilling SE
into the region from convection over Cntrl/Ern OK into Nrn AR.
Could still see low MVFR cigs develop over the wrn sections of E
TX as well as Deep E TX after 10Z...with the potential for
isolated areas of LIFR cigs/patchy FG near LFK around daybreak.
Any cigs should gradually lift and scatter out by 15-16Z over E
TX...with a sct cu field expected to develop elsewhere by/after
18Z. Depending on if the convection over Ncntrl AR is able to send
any mesoscale bndrys SSW into Cntrl AR...additional sct
convection may be focused farther SSW Saturday afternoon as a weak
upper trough axis slides S into extreme NE TX/SW AR late in the
day. For now...have left out mention of VCTS for the SW AR
terminals given some uncertainty although isolated to possibly sct
convection may affect SW AR during the afternoon/evening. S winds
3-7kts tonight will become WSW 6-10kts after 15Z. /15/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1017 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Large complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly
advance southward across eastern Oklahoma into extreme western
Arkansas. This convection will likely diminish in coverage and
intensity through the overnight hours so have trimmed back pops
slightly across our northern sections through midnight. However,
additional development cannot be ruled through daybreak with
increasing upper troughing beginning to work southward from the
Ozarks. So slight chance/low chance pops have been adjusted
slightly across our northern zones for the early morning hours.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast was left intact. All
updated text products will be out shortly. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 95 77 96 / 10 10 10 20
MLU 77 94 76 94 / 10 30 20 30
DEQ 76 93 75 93 / 30 30 20 30
TXK 77 95 77 94 / 20 20 20 30
ELD 77 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30
TYR 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 77 95 77 96 / 10 20 0 10

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1156 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue to dominate for the rest of
the night and through Saturday morning. The only exception may be
another round of MVFR to IFR conditions due to BR/light FG at KMCB
early in the morning. CU should begin to develop around 14/15z and
expect scattered TSRA before 18z.

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1017 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Large complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly
advance southward across eastern Oklahoma into extreme western
Arkansas. This convection will likely diminish in coverage and
intensity through the overnight hours so have trimmed back pops
slightly across our northern sections through midnight. However,
additional development cannot be ruled through daybreak with
increasing upper troughing beginning to work southward from the
Ozarks. So slight chance/low chance pops have been adjusted
slightly across our northern zones for the early morning hours.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast was left intact. All
updated text products will be out shortly. /19/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through much of the 09/00Z TAF
period. The cu field will diminish shortly after sunset...with the
cirrus shield expected to gradually increase from the
NW...associated with sct strong convection over NW TX/Cntrl OK.
May see low MVFR/IFR cigs develop just before daybreak Saturday
over portions of the Wrn sections of E TX...with patchy FG/LIFR
cigs developing near LFK. However...these cigs should be more
scarce than what has developed each morning this week. Any low
cigs that develop will scatter out by 15-16Z...with a sct cu field
developing by midday elsewhere beneath cirrus cigs. Sct convection
is expected to develop Saturday afternoon over Cntrl AR and may
backbuild SW into the NE sections of SW AR...but should remain NNE
of the TXK/ELD terminals. S winds 4-8kts tonight will become SSW
after 15Z. /15/

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

19/15

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
937 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on target. Updated ZFP sent to remove first
period temporal wording. No changes to the grids at this time.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

AVIATION...
A few storms remaining ovr srn La this eve. These storms are xpcd
to fall apart ovr the nxt hr or so w/ skies remaining mstly clr
thru the ovrnght. VFR wx.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

MARINE...A ridge will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the
northern gulf into next week. This will keep a light to moderate
onshore flow in place.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 77 96 76 95 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 79 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 30
LFT 78 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 40
BPT 79 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 30

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
No problems with the flight this evening that lasted 103 minutes
and burst 29 miles downrange southwest over western Lake
Ponchartrain, observed pretty close to a narrow crescent moon at
termination.

Pretty unstable looking sounding with -8 lifted index and 3749
J/kg CAPE, precipitable water of 1.85 inches. Very high wet bulb
zero around 15kft, and very high tropopause around 94. Moisture
profile shows about 5-7 degree departures surface to about 450 mb,
then a dry layer to about 375 mb, before constricting aloft at
residual cirrus level from earlier cumulonimbi. Winds were S-SW
10-15 kt surface to about 15kft, then a layer of N 5-10kt to about
26kft, then NE 15-35kt aloft through tropopause. 24/RR

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

Discussion...
Current upper level synopsis shows a ridge centered near the
northern Texas panhandle and a trough over the eastern third of the
country. A surface inflection of the Bermuda ridge does extend
across Florida to the western Gulf of Mexico. Current convection has
already begun to wane and will diminish over the next few hours with
loss of daytime heating. Many locations did get a brief cool down
from showers and storms but that soil moisture may convert back into
higher dewpoints overnight. Even though New Orleans dropped below 80
for the first time in several days after a thunderstorm today (it
has since warmed back into the upper 80s) not sure the temperature
will fall below 80 tonight. Decided to hold off on re-issuing the
heat advisory to allow overnight shift to monitor lows in addition
to thinking that there will be more coverage tomorrow. And speaking
of the forecast Saturday...the upper ridge to the west that extends
over the CWA will begin to weaken locally and retrograde westward.
This decreased subsidence with possibly slightly more column
moisture should result in more numerous showers and thunderstorms.
This will moreso be the case going into Sunday as a weak trough
develops from the Tennessee Valley, extending southwestward towards
the CWA. Thus have increased pops on both days this weekend to 20-
40% Saturday and 50% Sunday.

Not much change expected throughout next week in terms of rain
chances. Daily afternoon pops should be 30-40% each day the local
area will be under a shear zone between Bermuda ridge that moves
into the western Atlantic and a trough moving east across the
northern half of the country.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to dominate for the rest of this
afternoon through Saturday morning. The only exceptions will be
briefly lower conditions due isolated SHRA/TSRA, affecting KMSY,
KNEW, KASD, KGPT and KHUM mainly through 23z. There may also be
another round of MVFR to IFR conditions due to BR/light fog at KMCB
late tonight/early Saturday morning.

MARINE...
Bermuda surface ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico will keep
flow onshore throughout the forecast period. The local coastal
waters will continue to see the typical diurnal wind
increase/decrease as nocturnal winds rise to 10 to 15 knots which
will carry over into the morning hours and then drop down the rest
of the day closer to 10 knots or slightly less. This should continue
into the weekend. Nocturnal sh/ts will also develop during the late
night and early morning hours through the next several days. Winds
will begin to shift to a more SE direction by Sunday as the ridge
shifts northward.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 93 74 94 / 10 20 20 50
BTR 77 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 50
ASD 79 94 76 93 / 10 40 20 50
MSY 81 94 79 92 / 10 40 10 50
GPT 80 92 76 91 / 10 30 20 40
PQL 78 93 76 94 / 10 30 20 40

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through much of the 09/00Z TAF
period. The cu field will diminish shortly after sunset...with the
cirrus shield expected to gradually increase from the
NW...associated with sct strong convection over NW TX/Cntrl OK.
May see low MVFR/IFR cigs develop just before daybreak Saturday
over portions of the Wrn sections of E TX...with patchy FG/LIFR
cigs developing near LFK. However...these cigs should be more
scarce than what has developed each morning this week. Any low
cigs that develop will scatter out by 15-16Z...with a sct cu field
developing by midday elsewhere beneath cirrus cigs. Sct convection
is expected to develop Saturday afternoon over Cntrl AR and may
backbuild SW into the NE sections of SW AR...but should remain NNE
of the TXK/ELD terminals. S winds 4-8kts tonight will become SSW
after 15Z. /15/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper air ridge across the ARKLATEX late this afternoon is
gradually breaking down/shifting East away from the region,
courtesy of upper air troughiness draped from the Great Lakes
Region to across the Central Plains. Although the ridge is doing a
decent job at keeping storm chances at bay, as shown by sea-
breeze convection having been confined to Southern LA, but can not
rule out a few showers making it to central LA later this aftn.
Furthermore, will also need to pay close attention to Eastward
propagating thunderstorm activity that have been plaguing portions
of the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley most of the day,
aided by a nearby cold front. If an outflow boundary shift South
towards the region, it could serve as a focus for CI later this
aftn/early evening as hinted at by the HRRR solution. Tonight
appears to be the slightly better opportunity for precipitation
especially for the Northern zones, as the Southern periphery of
the UA trough swings across the area and provide a bit of large
scale ascent. Otherwise, slightly gusty South to Southwest winds
have prompted temps to warm into the 90s or 2 or so degrees above
normal. Lack of beneficial rainfall within the last few weeks and
a downslope wind component thus keeping temps hot, will lead to
soils continuing its drying effects. This is especially seen
across the Western zones as dewpoints are a few degrees lower
than this time yesterday afternoon. It is still going to take some
time for significant drying to take place but the process is
underway.

As the upper air ridge shifts to the Southeast CONUS this weekend,
Northwest flow aloft will prevail and embedded disturbances within
the flow aloft along with a slowly Southward sagging cold front,
will lead to the return of precipitation chances, particularly
across Northern and Eastern zones. The ridge is anticipated to make
a return early next week thus encouraging the retreat of the nearby
frontal boundary and hence diminishing chances for significant
widespread precipitation. The only precipitation potential will be
diurnally driven sea-breeze convection mid-late week as hinted at
by long term solutions.

Temperatures will remain at/above normal throughout the extended
forecast though humidities will ever so slightly be lowering. So
the question begs as to whether or not to extend the Heat
Advisory beyond today. Highest dewpoints were noted across the
Eastern zones late this aftn, coinciding with the highest heat
indices and where a portion of the Heat Advisory is currently in
effect. Tomorrow, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than
today /albeit still warm/ given the exiting ua ridge corresponding
to lowering 500 mb height fields. The soils will continue to dry
and so will the humidity. Will therefore hold off on extending the
Heat Advisory attm, but can not rule out heat indices still
hovering around/slightly above 100 degrees across the Eastern
zones.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue to dominate the aviation forecast over
the next 24 hrs. Some early morning low clouds ceilings may be
observed in Deep East Texas...but elsewhere they will be scattered.
Widely scattered shra/tsra activity may affect our Arkansas
terminals tomorrow afternoon...but at this time the chances are too
low to mention in the taf. Southerly winds will continue to prevail
through the period. /11/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 95 77 96 / 10 10 10 20
MLU 77 94 76 94 / 10 30 20 30
DEQ 76 93 75 93 / 20 30 20 30
TXK 77 95 77 94 / 20 20 20 30
ELD 77 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30
TYR 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 77 95 77 96 / 0 20 0 10

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ072-073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ151>153-165>167.