Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/06/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Still looking at a few showers and thunderstorms near
the International Border around KDUG. Otherwise, skies were mostly
clear late this evening. The current forecast calls for a little
more thunderstorm activity tomorrow and the next few days. This
looks reasonable based on the latest model solutions. Thus, no
updates necessary this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/06Z.
Somewhat greater coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday
afternoon, with isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS
vicinity east and south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered to
broken clouds at 10k-15k ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at
less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Some increase in showers/tstms is
expected Wednesday into Friday, with the favored period during the
afternoon/evening hours. Have noted that the GFS continued to
befairly more robust to markedly more robust regarding precip
chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC solutions. For this forecast
package, made only minor adjustments to the inherited gridded data
PoP fields.Thus, isolated to scattered showers/tstms from Tucson
eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday with dry conditions across
western/central Pima County and south-central Pinal County.
Have maintained a slight chance of showers/ tstms Saturday across
the White Mountains and far southeastern sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
835 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Another very quiet evening across our cwa, with westerly flow all
the way through the column keeping monsoon moisture and thunderstorms
well off to our south, mainly over extreme se AZ and northern
Mexico. The combination of clear skies and a dry airmass (the 00z
PSR sounding showing a pwat of only 0.81 inch) allowed temperatures
to rise to near or slightly above 110F at the warmer lower desert
locations again this afternoon. Tonight`s low appear that they will be
very close to last night`s, in the upper-70 to mid-80 range across
the lower deserts. Given current trends, other than some slight
adjustments to the hourly temp/dewpoint grids, inherited forecasts
are still looking good, and no updates are planned.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong high pressure aloft and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep
skies mainly clear through the taf period. Winds to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the
Phx area terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and
stronger westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Percha/AJ
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly
near the international border south-to-southeast of Tucson this
evening. These showers/tstms will end by midnight followed by clear
skies or mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Some increase in showers/tstms is expected Wednesday into Friday,
with the favored period during the afternoon/evening hours. Have
noted that the GFS continued to be fairly more robust to markedly
more robust regarding precip chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC
solutions. For this forecast package, made only minor adjustments to
the inherited gridded data PoP fields. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers/tstms from Tucson eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday
with dry conditions across western/central Pima County and south-
central Pinal County. Have maintained a slight chance of showers/
tstms Saturday across the White Mountains and far southeastern
sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/00Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this evening mainly near the
international border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs. Somewhat greater
coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday afternoon, with
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS vicinity east and
south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south,
a few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening
followed by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Scattered to broken clouds at 10k-15k
ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind this evening and
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at less
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Francis
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry weather with near average early July
temperatures will persist through the 7 day forecast period. A
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will bring elevated
southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind speeds will be
slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts approaching 35
mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased winds combined
with low afternoon humidity will cause near critical fire weather
conditions generally from the I-40 corridor north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will diminish after sunset
tonight and redevelop aft 16Z Wed. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts
expected Wed afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will favor a normal diurnal sequence with occasional wind gusts
of 15 to 20 kts. through the early evening--although more frequent
wind gusts are likely for the southeast California terminals.
Otherwise skies will remain mostly clear with few to sct mid and
high clouds throughout the period.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
911 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring warm and
mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains.
&&
.UPDATE...Overall the forecast is in good shape, with no updates
planned this morning. Dry southwest flow remains in control with
breezes expected each afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /349 AM MST/...A drying west-southwesterly flow will
persist over the next several days across northern Arizona. This
will lead to fair and generally dry, but somewhat breezy, weather
for much of the coming week. Near normal temperatures are also
anticipated. While intermittent pushes of moisture may produce a
slight chance for thunderstorms over far eastern Arizona, the
pattern looks typical for an extended monsoonal break through the 7-
day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hrs, with breezy south to southwest winds each afternoon. A
slight chance of an afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA over the White Mtns
southeast of KSOW remains possible. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier southwesterly flow regime will limit any
chance for a shower or storm to the White Mountains through
Wednesday. Breezy afternoon winds will develop, with the highest
wind speeds Wednesday as a trough passes north of the state.
Thursday through Saturday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...dry
weather with breezy afternoons expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NWS Las Vegas
PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
904 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably dry air will continue to filter into the region as the
pattern will transition away from a typical summer monsoon
appearance. Temperatures will remain in a near normal range
throughout the week under mostly clear skies. Only a modest chance
of showers will exist through southeast and eastern Arizona during
the midweek period, with virtually no chance of rain at lower
elevations from central Arizona through southern California.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the larger circulation features over western North America
and northeast Pacific include troughing centered over the Canadian
Rockies (extending well into the NW CONUS), a large anticyclone west
of the trough, and a very broad region of high pressure with an axis
extending from west of Baja Mexico to east of Florida (containing
multiple anticyclonic circulations). With troughing to the northwest
and the axis of high pressure just to the south, our forecast area is
largely within southwesterly flow aloft. There is a weak disturbance
within that southwesterly flow which is producing some altocumulus.
However, the 12Z soundings show that this disturbance will not be
able to do much of anything else given how warm aloft we are and the
drying that has taken place in the lower levels. Thus, we will have
another very warm day with storm activity limited to areas well
outside of our territory (near the New Mexico border). For Wed and
Thu, the models depict the westerlies weakening slightly along with a
shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within the high pressure
region over/near us. This allows for a temporary incursion of
deep moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Made some subtle upward adjustments
to the temperatures for today otherwise, forecasts in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 145 am MST/PDT
High pressure remains situated over northern Chihuahua early this
morning while several shortwaves continue to carve out longwave
troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration will
only reinforce southwest/westerly flow throughout the SW Conus with
an overall anti- cyclonic subsident regime. Boundary layer moisture
also continues to be eroded with 00Z KPSR sounding data sampling an
anemic 6 g/kg sfc-H7 mixing ratio, while KTWC data was only slightly
more supportive for convective development at 8 g/kg. However,
unusually warm temperatures aloft have been amplifying with H5
readings spiking at -4C and falling near the climatological 90th
percentile capping any deep convection.
This general pattern will essentially hold for the entire week
keeping all but the southeast portions of Arizona devoid of
thunderstorms (much less for all but afternoon fair weather mountain
cumulus). The operational GFS still maintains a forecast of more
robust Sonoran outflow advecting marginally better moisture profiles
northward towards Pinal and Gila counties Wednesday and Thursday.
However, trends in this operational run have definitely been towards
a lower magnitude and less influential moisture push with only 8
g/kg materializing in the sfc-H7 layer. Thus, other than a brief
shower/virga over far southeast Gila County, saw no justifiable
reason to include any pops through the remainder of the forecast
area into the weekend.
One positive of this scenario is unlike most mid-monsoon season
pattern breakdowns, this convectively inactive period will feature
H5 heights depressed near 592dm and afternoon H8 temperatures only
hovering between +25C and +29C. Typically, breaks in thunderstorm
activity in July would result in near record highs, but model output
emphatically supports temperatures near to only slightly above
average throughout the week. In fact, spread among all post
processed raw and numerical guidance persists in an extremely narrow
range yielding excellent forecast confidence.
Convection will continue to remain thoroughly absent from the
forecast area well into next week as larger negative height
anomalies develop over the Pacific Northwest. This will exacerbate
westerly flow through the intermountain west and SW Conus further
eliminating any sense of quality boundary layer moisture across the
forecast area. There is strong evidence that sfc dewpoints through
the weekend and into early next week fall into the 30s with total
column Pwats descending towards 0.50 inches (climatologically near
the 10th percentile for early/mid July). Thus, instead of entering
deeper into monsoon flow of mid July, the atmosphere is actually
regressing more towards an early June dry pattern. Though ensemble
spread begins to grow towards the middle of next week, it may very
well be until the end of next week at the earliest before sufficient
moisture can return north and storm chances reenter the forecast
picture.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry westerly flow aloft with only few to sct high clouds at all area
terminals. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal trends, with some
afternoon gustiness likely, especially at KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
Dry southwesterly flow aloft will be in place through early next
week. Minimum humidity values will be at or below 10% at most lower
desert locations. Overnight recovery will be only fair. Surface
winds will favor south-southwesterly in the afternoon and evening
with gusts in the teens. Overall, the pattern is more characteristic
of June rather than July.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A relatively dry air mass with westerly flow aloft
will continue to limit thunderstorm coverage today. More moisture
will increase thunderstorm chances the second half of the week.
Another drier and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
depicted clear skies across much of southeast Arizona at this time.
A few mid-level clouds were noted northwest of Tucson in the
vicinity of Picacho Peak, and near the International border adjacent
Cochise County. Dewpoints at lower elevations valid 15Z ranged from
the 50s-lower 60s, and these temps were nearly identical to 24 hours
ago. Surface temps valid 15Z were also essentially unchanged versus
this time Monday.
05/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 1.11 inches
increased only 0.04 inch versus 24 hours ago. The column was nearly
saturated around 600 mb but was quite dry in the surface-700 mb
layer and above 500 mb. 05/12Z upper air plots depicted a 500 mb
ridge axis that extended from west of northern Baja California
eastward to Florida. Meanwhile, a belt of westerlies encompassed the
northern CONUS with a 559 dm low centered over British Columbia.
Light wly/swly flow aloft prevailed across southeast Arizona.
The 12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM was similar to the HRRR in depicting the
initial development for showers/tstms late this morning or early
this afternoon to occur near the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern
Cochise County, or perhaps further west near the Huachuca Mountains
in southwestern Cochise County. The bulk of showers/tstms later this
afternoon and evening is progged to occur generally across the New
Mexico bootheel, but some precip echoes were progged to be further
west into about the southeast one quarter of Cochise County.
Based on these solutions, see no reason to tamper with the official
forecast that depicts isolated showers/tstms this afternoon/evening
to occur from near Nogales eastward to the Chiricahua Mountains, or
generally near the International border adjacent eastern Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere, with high
temps this afternoon virtually identical to temps achieved Monday
afternoon.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening mainly near
the International border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south
few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening followed
by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Surface wind this afternoon will generally be wly
at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be
variable in direction at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Enough moisture will linger for thunderstorms near
the International border again today, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Another brief push of moisture will bring increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from near Tucson south and east Wednesday
into Friday. Drying will then occur once again this weekend. 20-ft
winds will generally favor diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with
some enhancement in areas where afternoon westerly/northwesterly
flow is the norm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /150 AM MST/...Water vapor imagery and 05/00Z upper-
air plots show a sprawling ridge that extends generally west to east
from the central Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico and into west
Texas. This has resulted in a continuation of a dry westerly flow
aloft across the desert southwest as evidenced on the 05/00Z KTWC
sounding. The PW on the sounding was up a bit from 12 to 24 hours
ago, with a value of 1.28 inches, which was about two-tenths of an
inch greater. Both the CIRA LPW Total and the U of A GPS PW show a
value as of 06Z of just a tad over an inch.
Models indicate that the ridge to our south will shift eastward
through early Wednesday to a position over the southern plains with
the ridge axis extending westward across northern Mexico. As this
shift occurs, return flow on the western flank of the ridge will
allow moisture to increase during the middle to latter part of the
week. Therefore, expect thunderstorm chances to increase mainly
Wednesday into Thursday, with the focus for thunderstorms being from
around Nogales to Douglas, with the activity spreading a bit farther
north Thursday. For now it looks like the farthest northwestern
extent of the storms will be around the Tucson area, with very
little threat west and north of the city. Even so, it only looks
like isolated coverage for the Tucson metro. However, this could
change depending on what subsequent model runs indicate, so stay
tuned.
Confidence is not high at this point with the GFS being the most
robust model in wanting to bring in the threat for storms, whereas
the NAM and ECMWF, not so much. Just one example, looking at MOS POP
numbers for Tucson, the NAM shows POPS in the single digits for
Wednesday through Thursday, whereas the GFS has 12-hour POPS of 14,
39 and 21 percent for Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday,
respectively. ECMWF is much closer to the NAM numbers. So, sorta
went with a blend, but not yet close to the GFS values, especially
for Wednesday night. With subsequent model runs, the forecast may
change between now and the middle to latter part of the week.
Confidence is moderate to high at this point that areas along the
international border will see at least scattered convection.
By the weekend a low pressure system will begin to affect the
Pacific northwest as the ridge becomes reestablished to our south
again, resulting in a drying trend for the weekend and into early
next week.
For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs above
normal today and then near normal Wednesday through Friday before
becoming around 2 to 4 degs above normal again for the weekend and
early next week. Low temps will range from 4 to 6 degs above normal
Wednesday morning, then around 2 to 4 degs above normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
Continued gradual clearing is expected through the evening hours.
Highs should reach into the lower to middle 80s. Low clouds and
fog may redevelop later tonight. A frontal boundary will then
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast
Wednesday through Friday. Humidity levels will also increase
during this time with highs well into the 80s each day. Next
weekend will then feature drier and cooler conditions as high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
quiet evening with continued gradual mixout of cu field. with
convective focus well upstream have sided a bit more optimistic
with only slight chance in far wrn/nwrn cwa mention needed only
near daybreak. thereafter...uncertainty increases with outflow
boundaries/convective debris canopy to potentially afford
differential heating boundary for wed aftn/eve initiation in
decidedly deeper high level theta-e regime.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
little substantive changes. persistent shra/tsra chances into at
least friday amid cwa along southern base of peripheral zonal flow
and lack of specfic timing of shortwaves precludes much
detail...though concede diurnal trend...espcly friday aftn with
potential favorable frontal timing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
General vfr conds xpcd this pd although pd of mvfr vsby restriction
psbl overnight similar to last night given contd proxy of sfc ridge
axis and clrg skies. Otrws upstream convn dvlpg acrs srn MN xpcd to
pass well west acrs IL lt tonight. Waa wing downstream of this could
potentially fire an isold-sct shra/tsra wed am but ltl confidence in
this scenario and will defer for now.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...T
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
A warmer...more humid and unsettled weather pattern is expected
to continue for the rest of the week. High pressure is expected to
settle across the southeastern states...allowing a warmer and more
humid southerly flow of air to preside across the Ohio Valley. As
upper level weather disturbances push across this air
mass...showers and thunderstorms will be expected from time to
time.
Typical summertime temperatures are expected into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /tonight/...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad ridge of high
pressure in place across the eastern United States. Low Pressure
was found across the upper midwest. Warmer and more humid
southerly flow was developing across the Indiana. Dew point
temperatures have climbed back into the sticky upper 60s and lower
70s.
Main forecast challenge tonight will be temps.
12Z 850mb analysis shows a thermal ridge in place ahead of low
pressure over Minnesota and Lake Superior. This feature is
expected to sag southward tonight amid the slight nw to zonal flow
in place aloft across the northern CONUS. Water vapor continues to
shows plenty of dry air in place across Indiana...Illinois and
Missouri. Rapid refresh fails to develop much in the way of
diurnal precip today as convective temps remain high. Furthermore
with dry air in place aloft as seen by the water vapor
imagery...will try to trend toward a dry forecast tonight. Given
the expected warm air advection...southerly flow and very high dew
points...will trend overnight lows at or above a model blend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
Relatively little chance is expected in the overall weather
pattern through the period as the warm and humid air mass along
with southerly surface flow remains in place across Indiana.
Forecast Sounding suggest convective temps in the reachable upper
80s each day...thus afternoon diurnal convection cannot be ruled
out.
best chances for rain and storms will be on Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night as a warm front approaches from the west. Time
Heights show deep saturation and good lift. 310K GFS Isentropic
surfaces show good upglide and high specific humidities in excess
of 7 g/kg. Thus will trend highs pops during this time. Otherwise
will stick close to a blend of pops...focusing chcs diurnally
during the afternoons on Thursday...although confidence in this
is not high as little support aloft is available.
GFS suggest and upper low and short wave arriving in the Great
lakes on Friday. This could provide a better triggering effect for
showers/storms then as convective temps and moisture remain
favorable.
A blend on temps will suffice...may trend warmer in urban areas on
lows for heat island effects.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
A cold front will move through Indiana late Friday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes. Models have trended in ending the
chance of thunderstorms a little quicker and now only expect a slight
chance of thunderstorms south half Friday evening.
The front will stall over southern Kentucky and Tennessee over the weekend
as weak high pressure moves into the great lakes. Went slightly cooler
and dry over the weekend...although there may be a slight chance of
thunderstorms south Sunday as the front starts to drift back to the north.
Will mention a slight chance of thunderstorms all areas by Monday night as
the front continues to drift north. Confidence for any storms next week is
low as models also build an upper ridge across our region late in the
long term period.
Temperatures will be a degree or two below normal over the weekend and a couple
of degrees above by day 7. Raised superblend temperatures slightly some period...
but no significant changes were made.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 060000Z TAF issuance/...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2016
VFR through at least 6z with mostly clear skies and light variable
winds. Models are still disagreeing over development of fog/low
stratus during the overnight, but think potential looks greatest
at KHUF and KBMG based on model soundings and forecast dewpoint
depressions. Even so will keep them no lower than MVFR for now.
Will start to develop after 6z at those sites, and after 8-9z at
KIND. HRRR/NAM still showing potential for convection to reach
KLAF after 9-10z but RAP is not on board. Went with a PROB30 there
during the most likely time of convection. Any fog/low clouds
should burn off around 13-14z Wednesday and then will start to see
more convective potential arrive during the afternoon and evening.
Should be more scattered during the late afternoon/evening and
more widespread after 0z so will continue to leave out of
surrounding sites for now. Winds will pick up to around 10-12 kts
out of the southwest by late Wednesday morning after remaining
less than 5 kts during the overnight.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Late this afternoon temperatures were in the late 90s with dewpoints
int he the mid to upper 70s across east central KS, which has caused
heat indices to be in the 110 to 114 degree range. The mixing was a
bit deeper across the western counties where dewpoints have dropped
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Most numerical models do not show thunderstorms developing across
the CWA this afternoon and evening, though MLCAPE values range from
4,000 to 5,000 J/KG. The HRRR is the only model that shows isolated
thunderstorms developing across the CWA late this afternoon and
evening but based on the lack of vertical CU development, I really
do not see any boundary or minor vortmaxes that could help increase
ascent for any thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Tonight, most models show scattered thunderstorms across northeast
CO and the southern NE Panhandle this afternoon congealing into an
MCS which will track east or southeast across the plains. The HRRR,
NAM, and WRF solutions show the MCS tracking southeast across the
CWA, though it may begin to weaken as it moves into northeast and
east central KS late Tonight. If an MCS develops and maintains its
intensity through the night then there will be a chance for heavy
rainfall and potential damaging wind gusts along with penny to
quarter size hail, with the better chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms across north central KS during the early morning
hours Wednesday. The exact track and the intensity of the MCS will
not be known until it develops and begins to propagate to the
southeast. Therefore, I went with chance pops after 6Z across the
CWA but there will be higher pops wherever the MCS tracks.
Wednesday, The morning thunderstorm complex will exit the eastern
counties of the CWA by 15Z. Skies should clear from west to east
across the CWA during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Highs should warm into the lower and mid 90s across the southern
counties along with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s. If the MCS
remains intense through the morning hours, then an outflow boundary
may shift south of the CWA and the cloud cover may hold through most
of the afternoon hours keeping Highs several degrees cooler. At this
time I think we will clear out by afternoon and heat up into the mid
90s south of I-70. Therefore I have issued a heat advisory for areas
along and south of I-70 from 12 Noon through 8 PM Wednesday where
heat indices around 105 degrees during the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Storms are expected to form in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska Wednesday
evening and move east toward the area overnight. There is a chance
some storms may make it into the northern portion of the CWA by late
evening so low end PoPs are included during this time frame mainly
north of I-70. Thunderstorm chances continue for Thursday as another
shortwave is forecast to move through late afternoon into the
evening. Soundings indicate a cap will be in place most of the
afternoon Thursday, but with a front in the area and sufficient
heating, the cap should degrade allowing a chance for storms to
form. Models show high CAPE values over 3000 J/kg along with 0-6 km
shear ranging between 25-35 knots. This makes organized convection
possible with strong winds and gusty hail being the main hazard.
Friday looks to have the best chance to be dry, although another
shortwave near central Kansas may provide some focus for storms in
east central Kansas during the afternoon Friday. As for
temperatures during this time, the hottest day looks to be Thursday
with heat indicies once again near 105 degrees due to dewpoints in
the low 70s Thursday afternoon. The front finally makes it through
the area this day allowing Friday to cool slightly with highs in the
low 90s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Weak mid-level ridging will be in place at the beginning of the
period. A frontal boundary is expected to stall in southern Kansas
Saturday afternoon. This may be the focal point for thunderstorm
development Saturday afternoon and evening. An amplified trough will
be in place across the Western US late next weekend. EC and GFS
differ on the effects from the trough. GFS much more bullish with
strength of a shortwave trough lifting out from base of the trough.
The unsettled pattern will continue through the remainder of the
period as a potentially unstable atmosphere will be in place. As mid-
level southwesterly flow settles in across the area, weak embedded
waves will have the potential to spark thunderstorm activity for the
remainder of the period. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal
with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dew
points near 70 degrees, heat index values will range from the mid-
90s to near 100 degrees for the entire extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Have kept VCTS around 7-10Z for potential convective complex
moving through. Confidence in its timing and occurrence are too
low for prevailing TS. Minor wind shear potential exists around
10Z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ034>039-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Baerg
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
Sfc high pressure this morning was centered over southeast Nebraska.
With the light winds and ample moisture near the sfc,
widespread low stratus with some patchy light drizzle has developed
and will linger through the morning. Patchy dense fog is likely
in low lying areas where winds have become calm, otherwise all high
resolution guidance keeps the boundary layer just mixed enough at
around 5 to 8 mph to preclude widespread dense fog. Will continue to
monitor trends in the winds, but do not plan to issue a fog advisory
with this forecast.
Sfc high pressure gradually slides southeast, keeping the area under
mostly cloudy skies through the first half of the afternoon.
Temporary ridging aloft behind the departing shortwave trough will
preclude any precipitation through the period while a lee trough to
the west veers winds to the south during the afternoon at 5 to 10
mph. Increasing warm advection with clearing skies over
north central KS warms temps back to near normal in the
upper 80s. Elsewhere, skies begin to clear in the mid to late
afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.
For this evening`s festivities, southerly winds weaken to near 5 mph
as temperatures gradually fall into the low 70s Tuesday morning. Dry
air advects southward within the boundary layer overnight, therefore
chances for widespread stratus/fog are minimal.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
There remains signs from the model solutions for a wave to move
across the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mid level lapse
rates are forecast to be plenty steep enough for elevated
instability but 0-6km shear is not all that impressive. So the
expectation is for a possible MCS to impact the region mainly
Tuesday night. However the models differ on where the possible
MCS may track. Because of the poor consensus among the operational
solutions, have kept POPs in the chance range. A similar set up is
anticipated for Wednesday night in terms of airmass. But the
forcing for storms is a little less obvious and still the models
show different paths for any MCS. So the forecast keeps things dry
for Wednesday with no real forcing or low level convergence.
Additionally if there is an MCS Tuesday night, there would likely
be decent subsidence in the wave of the system. Then the forecast
has some small POPs for Wednesday night thinking better chances
may be north of the forecast area. For Thursday night the GFS and
ECMWF show a weak boundary moving into the area that could act as
a focus for convection. Therefore have some chance POPs there as
well. Temps for Tuesday through Thursday continue to look hot with
mid and upper 90s forecast. The heat index continues to be the
main concern as models continue to support values around 105
degrees. With the recent rains and evapotranspiration becoming a
greater factor, dewpoints may have a difficult time mixing out
during the heat of the day. Considered issuing an advisory for
Tuesday but after collaborating with neighboring offices, will opt
to let the day shift take a look at the 12Z model runs before
issuing the advisory.
For Friday through Sunday, it is difficult to pick a period where
there shouldn`t be any precip chances. The GFS shows a decent
elevated mixed layer capping the boundary layer and as such
generates much less QPF across the area while the ECMWF shows
various reasons for precip which are not entirely implausible.
With this in mind and taking into account climatology a 20 to 30
percent chance on any given day, have stayed with a blend of the
models with small chances for precip through the weekend. Temps
are expected to be a bit cooler through the weekend with highs in
the lower 90s as the thermal ridge moves to the west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016
Weak high pressure will slowly move southeastward across eastern
Kansas tonight and Monday morning. Moist atmosphere, wet ground
and light winds will results in LIFR stratus and fog tonight,
especially at TOP and FOE. High moving off to the southeast and
winds switching around to the southeast by late Monday morning
will results in gradually improving conditions with VFR expected
by mid afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Happy 4th of July!
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...GDP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
318 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
A return to more seasonable temperatures can be expected across the
area this afternoon but morning clouds & fog may linger over
southeast Kansas dampening the diurnal climb once again. Shortwave
ridging should result in dry weather conditions across the area as
the low/mid lvl thermal ridge begins to expand eastward toward the
Central Plains.
A shortwave trough will approach on Tuesday bringing isolated storms
to the area Tuesday afternoon & evening. 0-6km bulk shear of 30+
knots and mlcape exceeding 3000 j/kg may result in a severe storm or
two but coverage is expected to remain limited given warm mid-lvl
temperatures. As temperatures rise into the mid and upper
90s...heat indices will climb above the century mark with the
highest values anticipated across southeast Kansas where dewpoint
temperatures are expected to remain in the mid & upper 70s. A heat
advisory may become necessary across portions of the area on
Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday-Thursday...hot and dry weather is anticipated through the
period with the potential for triple digits returning to some areas.
Confidence in widespread 100+ degree temperatures remains low at
this time given recent widespread precipitation & saturated soil
conditions but areas that received less rain may rise above 100
degrees both days while much of the area will see heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Another shortwave trough is progged to move over the
Central Plains states on Friday bringing additional chances for
showers and storms. Rising heights/increasing thickness will support
rising temperatures as we move into the weekend with mostly dry
weather conditions expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A combination of stratus build-down and radiational affects
will promote IFR/LIFR CIGS and IFR VSBYS in fog overnight across
much of central and eventually southeast Kansas. Surface ridge
will gradually shift east from central into southeast Kansas early
Monday morning with a return southerly flow developing across
central Kansas by late morning into Monday afternoon. The fog and
stratus CIGS will lift steadily from LIFR/IFR to MVFR by late
Monday morning with VFR returning by the afternoon. A few showers
will linger in the southeast corner of Kansas tonight, though
expected to remain south of the KCNU terminal.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 90 73 94 76 / 10 10 20 20
Hutchinson 89 72 95 75 / 10 10 20 20
Newton 88 72 94 75 / 10 10 20 20
ElDorado 87 72 94 76 / 0 10 20 20
Winfield-KWLD 91 73 95 78 / 0 10 20 20
Russell 92 70 97 72 / 10 10 20 20
Great Bend 92 70 96 72 / 10 10 20 20
Salina 88 71 97 75 / 10 10 20 30
McPherson 89 72 95 75 / 10 10 20 20
Coffeyville 89 74 94 77 / 10 10 10 20
Chanute 86 74 94 76 / 10 10 10 30
Iola 85 73 94 76 / 10 10 10 30
Parsons-KPPF 88 74 94 77 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
in the 60s w/ a mix of clear and cloudy skies. A low level cloud
deck has blanketed the eastern half of the area this morning due to
surface high pressure to our east creating a ESE surface gradient.
Trend is for areal coverage of cloud cover to slowly shift east thru
the morning hours as the surface ridge shifts in tandem.
For the beginning of the week right into the midweek(Wed/Wed night)
timeframe...the forecast area will see a return of hot conditions.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set
up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies. This in
turn with lee-side troughing over the Front Range and surface high
pressure remaining to the east...will aid in strong WAA into the
region. Models do carry a few shortwave troughs across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday in tandem with the lee-side trough exiting
east into the Plains Region. Bulk of dynamics do remain north of the
CWA closest to the main system...but do expect rw/trw activity to
occur as these systems push east. Deep dry layer over the region
will be hard to overcome as these systems approach...but enough
instability expected to trigger convection nonetheless. Model
parameters enough to warrant mention of Marginal Risk for severe wx
by SPC for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances look to occur on
Tuesday as remnants of lee-side trough linger over the Central
Plains providing focus for convection to fire up.
For temps...with model 850 mb temps in the +28C to +32C range during
the day for the next 72-hour period...looking for daytime highs to
range in the 90s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could be tempered a
few degrees by expected clouds/precip. Overnight lows will range in
the 60s to almost 70F in the eastern zones.
Record highs for the Mon-Wed timeframe will range 103F to 111F...so
not expecting any ties/records.
Precip/Wx...areas of fog this morning for eastern zones expected to
burn off/shift east in tandem with cloud cover movement and a shift
to more SSW winds. Timing for convection Tues/Wed will focus on
afternoon/early evening hrs especially for central/eastern zones.
PW values are going to range from 0.75" to almost 1.25" during
expected precip. Higher numbers east where closest to tapping into
deeper Gulf moisture. Some storms that could develop might carry
heavy rainfall.
Other concern to follow going into midweek should no moisture
fall...especially for western areas...will be the low RH values
creeping into the upper teens and lower 20s...and thus potential
Fire Wx issues. Winds will be tempered below criteria during this
time...but should be monitored nonetheless.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
In the extended period the models are showing a upper level longwave
trough with a tail end of a surface front moving through the region
Thursday and Friday. This will produce a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at the start of the period. Saturday, as the trough
continues to move towards the east, a ridge will move over the
region from the west. Saturday night will be another chance of
showers and thunderstorms as the models show a shortwave trough moving
within the upper level southwest flow and a surface boundary over
the Kansas/Colorado border. Sunday is expected to dry out as the
ridge continues to influence the region for the rest of the
extended. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s for
most of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.
At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
in the 60s w/ a mix of clear and cloudy skies. A low level cloud
deck has blanketed the eastern half of the area this morning due to
surface high pressure to our east creating a ESE surface gradient.
Trend is for areal coverage of cloud cover to slowly shift east thru
the morning hours as the surface ridge shifts in tandem.
For the beginning of the week right into the midweek(Wed/Wed night)
timeframe...the forecast area will see a return of hot conditions.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set
up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies. This in
turn with lee-side troughing over the Front Range and surface high
pressure remaining to the east...will aid in strong WAA into the
region. Models do carry a few shortwave troughs across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday in tandem with the lee-side trough exiting
east into the Plains Region. Bulk of dynamics do remain north of the
CWA closest to the main system...but do expect rw/trw activity to
occur as these systems push east. Deep dry layer over the region
will be hard to overcome as these systems approach...but enough
instability expected to trigger convection nonetheless. Model
parameters enough to warrant mention of Marginal Risk for severe wx
by SPC for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances look to occur on
Tuesday as remnants of lee-side trough linger over the Central
Plains providing focus for convection to fire up.
For temps...with model 850 mb temps in the +28C to +32C range during
the day for the next 72-hour period...looking for daytime highs to
range in the 90s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could be tempered a
few degrees by expected clouds/precip. Overnight lows will range in
the 60s to almost 70F in the eastern zones.
Record highs for the Mon-Wed timeframe will range 103F to 111F...so
not expecting any ties/records.
Precip/Wx...areas of fog this morning for eastern zones expected to
burn off/shift east in tandem with cloud cover movement and a shift
to more SSW winds. Timing for convection Tues/Wed will focus on
afternoon/early evening hrs especially for central/eastern zones.
PW values are going to range from 0.75" to almost 1.25" during
expected precip. Higher numbers east where closest to tapping into
deeper Gulf moisture. Some storms that could develop might carry
heavy rainfall.
Other concern to follow going into midweek should no moisture
fall...especially for western areas...will be the low RH values
creeping into the upper teens and lower 20s...and thus potential
Fire Wx issues. Winds will be tempered below criteria during this
time...but should be monitored nonetheless.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.
At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
in the 60s w/ a mix of clear and cloudy skies. A low level cloud
deck has blanketed the eastern half of the area this morning due to
surface high pressure to our east creating a ESE surface gradient.
Trend is for areal coverage of cloud cover to slowly shift east thru
the morning hours as the surface ridge shifts in tandem.
For the beginning of the week right into the midweek(Wed/Wed night)
timeframe...the forecast area will see a return of hot conditions.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set
up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies. This in
turn with lee-side troughing over the Front Range and surface high
pressure remaining to the east...will aid in strong WAA into the
region. Models do carry a few shortwave troughs across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday in tandem with the lee-side trough exiting
east into the Plains Region. Bulk of dynamics do remain north of the
CWA closest to the main system...but do expect rw/trw activity to
occur as these systems push east. Deep dry layer over the region
will be hard to overcome as these systems approach...but enough
instability expected to trigger convection nonetheless. Model
parameters enough to warrant mention of Marginal Risk for severe wx
by SPC for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances look to occur on
Tuesday as remnants of lee-side trough linger over the Central
Plains providing focus for convection to fire up.
For temps...with model 850 mb temps in the +28C to +32C range during
the day for the next 72-hour period...looking for daytime highs to
range in the 90s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could be tempered a
few degrees by expected clouds/precip. Overnight lows will range in
the 60s to almost 70F in the eastern zones.
Record highs for the Mon-Wed timeframe will range 103F to 111F...so
not expecting any ties/records.
Precip/Wx...areas of fog this morning for eastern zones expected to
burn off/shift east in tandem with cloud cover movement and a shift
to more SSW winds. Timing for convection Tues/Wed will focus on
afternoon/early evening hrs especially for central/eastern zones.
PW values are going to range from 0.75" to almost 1.25" during
expected precip. Higher numbers east where closest to tapping into
deeper Gulf moisture. Some storms that could develop might carry
heavy rainfall.
Other concern to follow going into midweek should no moisture
fall...especially for western areas...will be the low RH values
creeping into the upper teens and lower 20s...and thus potential
Fire Wx issues. Winds will be tempered below criteria during this
time...but should be monitored nonetheless.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.
At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
...Updated short and long term sections...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Low clouds or patchy fog is expected east of Highway 283 this
morning as winds remain light with ample moisture in the lower
levels. Any low clouds or fog that do develop should burn off by
the afternoon with mostly clear skies expected through the
remainder of the day. A weak shortwave will approach western
Kansas this evening into the overnight period but only a slight
increase in cloud cover is anticipated. Lee troughing will develop
today and continue through tonight leading to southerly winds felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs today are
progged to reach into the lower 90s with lows tonight around 70
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will be found above the southern United
States and northern Mexico through the extended period. Flow above
western Kansas will generally be zonal (west to east) through
Wednesday then more southwest towards the end of the week as an
upper level low moves through the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains. Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure will
continue to be located west of the area through at least Wednesday
bringing southerly winds to western Kansas. A weak shortwave is
progged to move through the area Tuesday which will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms to central Kansas. Otherwise expect partly
cloudy skies. A better chance of thunderstorms exists late this
week into the weekend as the aforementioned disturbance affects
western Kansas. This feature will also help push a cold front
through the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction
Thursday. This will be short lived as troughing returns Friday
into the weekend shifting winds back to a southerly direction. As
for temperatures, highs Tuesday through Thursday look to reach
into the mid to upper 90s then down slightly into the lower to mid
90s Friday into this weekend. Lows will generally range from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Areas of fog or low level clouds are expected to form before
sunrise this morning, mainly east of highway 83. This will bring
MVFR to LIFR conditions to the DDC and HYS terminals. Visibilities
and ceilings at GCK may remain higher and range from VFR to MVFR.
Any fog or low clouds that do form should burn off by late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be light overnight but
from a southerly direction. Wind speeds then increase to around 10
knots by this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 70 95 70 / 10 10 20 10
GCK 92 68 95 67 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 92 67 97 68 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 94 69 98 69 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 91 70 97 69 / 10 10 20 20
P28 92 72 98 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Westerly flow across the Rockies will improve today as an upper
level disturbance moves across eastern Kansas. Lingering low
clouds this afternoon are expected to continue to erode through
early tonight as light north winds begin to gradually veer to the
east southeast. Some areas of fog will be possible late tonight
across portions of western Kansas given the improving easterly up
slope flow. At this time how dense the fog will be is somewhat
unclear so am leaning away from issuing a dense fog advisory but
will continue to look at this and adjust if needed later this
afternoon.
Late day convection that will be possible over southeast Colorado
will spread southeast early this evening towards extreme southwest
Kansas. The chance for convection this evening does not appear
high but will keep small chances going west of highway 83 in
extreme southwest Kansas.
On Monday the latest guidance for highs stills appear to be a
little too warm given the recent rainfall, despite the afternoon
sunshine expected along with the warming 850mb temperatures
between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday. Will continue to follow the
previous forecast and trend temperatures down several degrees
Monday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Warm air advection develops Monday night north of a surface
boundary that will be located across the Panhandle of Texas and
Oklahoma. A few models hinted at a subtle upper wave rippling
across western Kansas early Monday night also. Given this will
keep small chance in far south southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma
border.
On Tuesday an upper level trough, located over southern
California at 12z Sunday, will exit the Rockies and begin to cross
the Central Plains during the afternoon. This may give rise to a
few afternoon or evening thunderstorms as it crosses western
Kansas late day. Main limiting factor for storms Tuesday afternoon
will be the warming forecast in the mid levels. Despite the warm
mid level temperatures expected Tuesday afternoon am currently
unable to completely rule out an isolated storm late day so will
leave the slight chance for afternoon and evening storms ahead of
this upper wave and east of the 10C to 14C 700mb temperature
gradient.
850mb and 700mb temperatures continue to warm through Thursday so
the chance for convection will continue to decrease for southwest
Kansas. Temperatures are also expected to warm but unsure if
temperatures will be as warm is what the 00z 850mb temperatures
mixed down would suggest. Highs mainly in the mid 90s still appear
to be reasonable.
On Friday a surface cold front will drop south into western
Kansas as an upper level disturbance will cross the northern
plains. Another warm day with highs in the 90s can still be
expected along and south of this front Friday afternoon while
highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler will be possible north of this
boundary. Exactly where this front will be late Friday however is
somewhat unclear at this time so will follow the general trend of
the CRExtendedFcst_Init for temperatures and precipitation chances
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Areas of fog or low level clouds are expected to form before
sunrise this morning, mainly east of highway 83. This will bring
MVFR to LIFR conditions to the DDC and HYS terminals. Visibilities
and ceilings at GCK may remain higher and range from VFR to MVFR.
Any fog or low clouds that do form should burn off by late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be light overnight but
from a southerly direction. Wind speeds then increase to around 10
knots by this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 92 70 96 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 63 92 68 96 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 64 92 67 98 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 65 94 69 98 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 62 91 70 96 / 10 10 10 20
P28 65 92 72 97 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Westerly flow across the Rockies will improve today as an upper
level disturbance moves across eastern Kansas. Lingering low
clouds this afternoon are expected to continue to erode through
early tonight as light north winds begin to gradually veer to the
east southeast. Some areas of fog will be possible late tonight
across portions of western Kansas given the improving easterly up
slope flow. At this time how dense the fog will be is somewhat
unclear so am leaning away from issuing a dense fog advisory but
will continue to look at this and adjust if needed later this
afternoon.
Late day convection that will be possible over southeast Colorado
will spread southeast early this evening towards extreme southwest
Kansas. The chance for convection this evening does not appear
high but will keep small chances going west of highway 83 in
extreme southwest Kansas.
On Monday the latest guidance for highs stills appear to be a
little too warm given the recent rainfall, despite the afternoon
sunshine expected along with the warming 850mb temperatures
between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday. Will continue to follow the
previous forecast and trend temperatures down several degrees
Monday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Warm air advection develops Monday night north of a surface
boundary that will be located across the Panhandle of Texas and
Oklahoma. A few models hinted at a subtle upper wave rippling
across western Kansas early Monday night also. Given this will
keep small chance in far south southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma
border.
On Tuesday an upper level trough, located over southern
California at 12z Sunday, will exit the Rockies and begin to cross
the Central Plains during the afternoon. This may give rise to a
few afternoon or evening thunderstorms as it crosses western
Kansas late day. Main limiting factor for storms Tuesday afternoon
will be the warming forecast in the mid levels. Despite the warm
mid level temperatures expected Tuesday afternoon am currently
unable to completely rule out an isolated storm late day so will
leave the slight chance for afternoon and evening storms ahead of
this upper wave and east of the 10C to 14C 700mb temperature
gradient.
850mb and 700mb temperatures continue to warm through Thursday so
the chance for convection will continue to decrease for southwest
Kansas. Temperatures are also expected to warm but unsure if
temperatures will be as warm is what the 00z 850mb temperatures
mixed down would suggest. Highs mainly in the mid 90s still appear
to be reasonable.
On Friday a surface cold front will drop south into western
Kansas as an upper level disturbance will cross the northern
plains. Another warm day with highs in the 90s can still be
expected along and south of this front Friday afternoon while
highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler will be possible north of this
boundary. Exactly where this front will be late Friday however is
somewhat unclear at this time so will follow the general trend of
the CRExtendedFcst_Init for temperatures and precipitation chances
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Areas of fog or low level clouds are expected to form before
sunrise this morning, mainly east of highway 83. This will bring
MVFR to LIFR conditions to the DDC and HYS terminals. Visibilities
and ceilings at GCK may remain higher and range from VFR to MVFR.
Any fog or low clouds that do form should burn off by late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be light overnight but
from a southerly direction. Wind speeds then increase to around 10
knots by this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 92 70 96 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 63 92 68 96 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 64 92 67 98 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 65 94 69 98 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 62 91 70 96 / 10 10 10 20
P28 65 92 72 97 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1122 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough
beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to
move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease.
Temperatures are in the 70s/80s across the region with variable
winds at less than 10 mph.
The latest model runs of the NAM and HRRR have chances for PoPs this
afternoon over the far southwestern portions (possibly into the
northwestern portions) of the region as a weak shortwave moves over
the CWA. CAPES will get to around 1500 J/kg but bulk shear is not
impressive. The remainder of the night is expected to be dry.
Around midnight MDT, fog is expected to form over areas along and
east of Hwy 83. The SREF and NAM models have the fog lasting until
around 13/14Z Monday morning.
A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting
trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s.
There are slight chances for precipitation in the far western
portion of the region in the late afternoon as an upper level
shortwave moves towards the region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.
At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
130 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
.AVIATION...
Biggest impact over the next few hours will be showers and
thunderstorms. The bulk of activity is currently moving across an
area along a line northwest of a KBTR to KMCB line. These storms
are moving quite briskly at 30+ knots and likely have wind gusts
around that speed as well. Some storms could spread southeast of
the current location but not expecting as much coverage there.
Otherwise...vfr conditions will prevail through the overnight
period with light to calm winds.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 93 74 93 / 20 20 10 20
BTR 77 95 77 94 / 10 10 10 20
ASD 78 93 77 93 / 10 10 10 20
MSY 79 93 79 94 / 10 10 10 20
GPT 80 93 79 92 / 10 10 10 20
PQL 76 91 77 92 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1231 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016
.AVIATION...
Heating today combined with precip wtr around 1.9 inches and the
approach of an upr lvl shrtwv fm the nw will support storm dvlpmntin
se Tx and srn La thru the late aftn hrs. ATTM... AEX appears to be
the Taf lctn w/ the highest potential for storm actvty. This will
shift down into s-cntrl La drg the late aftn hrs...LFT and ARA.
Storms ending around or just aftr ss... all TAF sites going VFR
thereafter.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1141 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
UPDATE...
Cluster of storms now moving into e cntl TX has been showing signs
of weakening the past few volume scans. This cluster is associated
with an impulse aloft that will cross the area today. Additional
sctd convection beginning to develop ahead of this complex, and
this should continue through the aftn. Recent ARW has backed off
on convective coverage fm its previous run while latest HRRR runs
still indicate at least sctd coverage through the aftn. Adjusted
POPs with a blend of recent HRRR guidance for the remainder of the
day, and may need to fine tune further as things evolve.
The good news is that these showers and storms should help
moderate temperatures for some of the Independence Day
celebrations today. Tweaked hourly temps and dewpoints to bring in
line with recent obs, with minor adjustments through the aftn.
This still keeps heat index values below advisory criteria except
for an isltd spot or two.
Convection expected to decrease by evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Things should be fairly clear for evening
fireworks displays although warm and muggy conditions will
continue.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through most if not all the period. Two
main issues may aid in precipitation development.
First...slightly enhanced southerly flow had increased shower
activity offshore early this morning. This activity has dissipated
but believe isolated coverage of showers and storms will continue
today. This will affect mainly BPT and LCH through the morning and
over LFT and ARA later today. Also...MCS across north Texas will
move southeast through the morning hours and may aid in bringing
scattered thunderstorm activity to central Louisiana. There is
some uncertainty on the impact of this system so for now will have
VCTS for AEX this afternoon. Activity should dissipate by early
evening.
KLCH VWP is showing winds near 30 knots just above the surface.
Winds will be somewhat higher than the past few days...potentially
gusting to near 20 mph this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Additional information for the coastal waters below.
MARINE...
Will be extending the small craft exercise caution headline for
the coastal waters from High Island to Cameron through Tuesday
morning. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 knot range throughout the
period. The exercise caution headline will be dropped at 7 am this
morning for the Cameron to Intracoastal City coastal waters.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Seeing a few showers developing off the Texas coast this early
morning. Some of them are moving onshore and dissipating along or
south of the I-10 corridor of SE TX and SW LA. Meanwhile...a MCS
is seen in north central TX. All of this means there is a better
chance of seeing some rain today...albeit only a 20 to 30 percent
expectation at this point. Typically these nocturnal offshore
showers dont last too far past daybreak...but models all show a
mid-level shortwave coming down to our region this afternoon...so
there may be better coverage than currently advertised...so stay
tuned.
As for todays high temperatures...expecting them to top out in the
mid to upper 90s...unless there is a better rain coverage and it
will be a little bit lower. Based on afternoon dew point
forecast...max afternoon heat indices are in the 104 to 107
range...so just below heat advisory criteria.
For the remainder of the week...it looks like there will be a
small chance for showers and thunderstorms each day...with similar
temperatures each day...highs in the 90s...lows in the 70s. Max
heat indices holding right below heat advisory criteria...but
irregardless...people should take precautions during the hottest
time of the day...drink plenty of water...and minimize the length
of time outdoors in the afternoons.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 77 96 77 96 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 81 93 80 93 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 80 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 20
BPT 80 93 80 93 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for GMZ450-
470.
&&
$$
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
150 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in thunderstorm activity with near average temperatures will
continue into next week. While there will be a temporary incursion
of moisture into portions of Arizona today and Thursday,
thunderstorm chances will be limited to southeast Arizona. Unusually
quiet weather may persist through all of next week before any
storms can move north once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak
inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however
has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure
center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains
situated over far SE Arizona. Deep westerly flow throughout the vast
majority of Arizona over the past 48 hours has progressively eroded
moisture with both 00Z KPSR and KTWC sounding data sampling only 5
g/kg within the boundary layer and total column pwats falling near
0.75 inches. However, the degenerated Sonoran convective complex has
created a pool of more substantial moisture which will partially
bleed north across the international border in weak southwest flow
today and Thursday.
The first signs of this moisture intrusion can be seen in overnight
KOLS observations with enhanced south winds and sfc dewpoints
jumping over 60F. Forecast BUFR soundings resoundingly show some of
this shallow moisture advecting north into the Phoenix area later
this morning, and eventually deeper 8-9 g/kg sfc-H7 profiles
enveloping much of the eastern third of the forecast area this
afternoon. However, temperatures in the H7-H5 layer remain
unseasonably warm under a general anti-cyclonic subsident flow
regime leaving minimal instability and notable Cinh. While a stray
shower could conceivably clip through higher terrain areas of
southern Gila county, ensemble probabilities barely breach single
digits through Thursday before dropping off completely heading into
the weekend.
The most notable weather feature locally through the weekend and
into early next week is actually the complete lack of weather and
thunderstorm activity. Deep negative height anomalies (around 2
normalized standard deviations below average) will propagate from
the Pacific NW into the Great Basin with intense jet energy punching
over the Sierra chain towards the central Rockies. Essentially every
NAEFS member shows this scenario where the mid and upper
tropospheric u-wind component becomes anomalously strong and within
a climatologically rare threshold for mid July. Unlike much of the
summer season, forecast confidence is exceedingly high and so much
so as to assign absolutely no chance of rainfall for the entire Sat-
Wed time frame as aggressive drying spreads through the atmospheric
column. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed
troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm
yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong high pressure aloft and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep
skies mainly clear through the taf period. Winds to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the
Phx area terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and
stronger westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow will maintain seasonable
temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of rain.
Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to 12
percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds peaking at 15 to 20
mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up to 20
to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight recoveries
will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions nearly area-
wide Sunday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite
close to seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 06/00Z upper-air plots
continue to show an east to west oriented ridge axis that extends
from west Texas across northern Chihuahua Mexico and into south
central Sonora and across central Baja. IR satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies across Arizona with a decaying storm complex to
our south over eastern and southern portions of Sonora and
northwestern parts of Chihuahua.
The current synoptic setup continues to result in a dry westerly
flow aloft across the Desert Southwest. The PW from the 06/00Z KTWC
sounding was only 0.76 inches, compared to 1.28 inches from 24 hours
ago. The U of A GPS PW for Tucson as of 05Z was just a tad above
0.75 inches, while the 06Z CIRA LPW Total was 0.8 inches. However,
this is about to change as the CIRA LPW Total shows values of over
1.5 inches just to the south of the Cochise county border. In
addition, values of 2.0+ inches can be seen near and to the east of
MMHO (Hermosillo, Mexico) and values approaching 3 inches over
southern Sonora.
That said, the GFS has been advertising a fairly significant
increase in moisture and thus POPS for today through Thursday as
return flow along the western portion of the ridge ushers in
moisture. The latest model runs are beginning to show better
agreement than the past few days. The 06/00Z run of the NAM shows a
very significant increase in the POP numbers from just the 05/12Z
run, going from 3 percent for Tucson this afternoon to 34 percent.
The GFS POP numbers have maintained consistency with values of
around 20-30 percent for this afternoon and evening and continuing a
solid chance category POPs through Thursday. ECMWF shows a slight
increase from single digits to the slight chance category through
Friday.
At any rate, the 06/00Z run of the U of A WRF/NAM shows development
over southwestern Cochise county by around Noon today and spreading
into eastern Santa Cruz county and eastern Pima by late in the
afternoon and/or early evening. The WRF/GFS shows initial
development in the same general location, but more intense and
spreading farther north into the Tucson metro and perhaps into
central parts of Pima county. Based on all of this recent
information, I did increase POPs for today through Thursday.
Confidence is moderate to high that at least scattered storms will
develop from around the Nogales area toward Douglas and eastward.
The tricky part is just how far to the north/northwest will the
convection develop. There will be a fairly tight POP gradient across
my forecast area into the Phoenix area where they are showing
virtually no chance of precipitation. I did adjust the forecast to
show isolated activity today for Tucson, but depending on just how
quickly the moisture moves in and what the 06/12Z KTWC sounding
reveals will help determine if that category of POP is too low, or
not. Day shift will have to see how things evolve and may have to
make adjustments to increase POPs farther north and west than what I
currently have in the forecast.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday, with
most of the threat along the border with New Mexico and between
Nogales and Douglas, but even then only isolated activity expected.
Virtually no threat of storms Saturday through early next week as
the ridge sets up to our south again, resulting in a dry south to
westerly flow aloft.
For Tucson, high and low temperatures will generally be at or
slightly above normal through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL with BKN conditions mainly S and E of
KTUS this afternoon/evening. Isolated-scattered -SHRA/-TSRA this
afternoon mainly E of a KTUS-KOLS line, with some producing gusty
winds and brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, sfc winds will generally
be terrain driven at 12 kts or less this morning, becoming wly/swly
at 10-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon. Light and
terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect better coverage of showers and storms today
through Friday, with some developing as far north as the I-10
corridor including Tucson. Storms will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds to 40 mph. Drying will then occur once again this
weekend. Outside of convection, 20-ft winds will generally favor
diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with some enhancement in areas
where afternoon westerly/northwesterly flow is the norm.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions nearly area-
wide Sunday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite
close to seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 06/00Z upper-air plots
continue to show an east to west oriented ridge axis that extends
from west Texas across northern Chihuahua Mexico and into south
central Sonora and across central Baja. IR satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies across Arizona with a decaying storm complex to
our south over eastern and southern portions of Sonora and
northwestern parts of Chihuahua.
The current synoptic setup continues to result in a dry westerly
flow aloft across the Desert Southwest. The PW from the 06/00Z KTWC
sounding was only 0.76 inches, compared to 1.28 inches from 24 hours
ago. The U of A GPS PW for Tucson as of 05Z was just a tad above
0.75 inches, while the 06Z CIRA LPW Total was 0.8 inches. However,
this is about to change as the CIRA LPW Total shows values of over
1.5 inches just to the south of the Cochise county border. In
addition, values of 2.0+ inches can be seen near and to the east of
MMHO (Hermosillo, Mexico) and values approaching 3 inches over
southern Sonora.
That said, the GFS has been advertising a fairly significant
increase in moisture and thus POPS for today through Thursday as
return flow along the western portion of the ridge ushers in
moisture. The latest model runs are beginning to show better
agreement than the past few days. The 06/00Z run of the NAM shows a
very significant increase in the POP numbers from just the 05/12Z
run, going from 3 percent for Tucson this afternoon to 34 percent.
The GFS POP numbers have maintained consistency with values of
around 20-30 percent for this afternoon and evening and continuing a
solid chance category POPs through Thursday. ECMWF shows a slight
increase from single digits to the slight chance category through
Friday.
At any rate, the 06/00Z run of the U of A WRF/NAM shows development
over southwestern Cochise county by around Noon today and spreading
into eastern Santa Cruz county and eastern Pima by late in the
afternoon and/or early evening. The WRF/GFS shows initial
development in the same general location, but more intense and
spreading farther north into the Tucson metro and perhaps into
central parts of Pima county. Based on all of this recent
information, I did increase POPs for today through Thursday.
Confidence is moderate to high that at least scattered storms will
develop from around the Nogales area toward Douglas and eastward.
The tricky part is just how far to the north/northwest will the
convection develop. There will be a fairly tight POP gradient across
my forecast area into the Phoenix area where they are showing
virtually no chance of precipitation. I did adjust the forecast to
show isolated activity today for Tucson, but depending on just how
quickly the moisture moves in and what the 06/12Z KTWC sounding
reveals will help determine if that category of POP is too low, or
not. Day shift will have to see how things evolve and may have to
make adjustments to increase POPs farther north and west than what I
currently have in the forecast.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday, with
most of the threat along the border with New Mexico and between
Nogales and Douglas, but even then only isolated activity expected.
Virtually no threat of storms Saturday through early next week as
the ridge sets up to our south again, resulting in a dry south to
westerly flow aloft.
For Tucson, high and low temperatures will generally be at or
slightly above normal through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL with BKN conditions mainly S and E of
KTUS this afternoon/evening. Isolated-scattered -SHRA/-TSRA this
afternoon mainly E of a KTUS-KOLS line, with some producing gusty
winds and brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, sfc winds will generally
be terrain driven at 12 kts or less this morning, becoming wly/swly
at 10-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon. Light and
terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect better coverage of showers and storms today
through Friday, with some developing as far north as the I-10
corridor including Tucson. Storms will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds to 40 mph. Drying will then occur once again this
weekend. Outside of convection, 20-ft winds will generally favor
diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with some enhancement in areas
where afternoon westerly/northwesterly flow is the norm.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains and portions of northern Gila county Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Winds have dropped off this evening, and updates
were made to reduce the winds. Cloud cover was also reduced for
the overnight time period.
Breezy to windy conditions develop on Wednesday as a trough goes
by to the north. Near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible along and west northwest of a line from Prescott to
Winslow to Kayenta.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...Mostly dry weather with near
average early July temperatures will persist through the 7 day
forecast period. A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
will bring elevated southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind
speeds will be slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts
approaching 35 mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased
winds combined with low afternoon humidity will cause near
critical fire weather conditions generally from the I-40 corridor
north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will redevelop aft 16Z Wed and
then dcrs aft sun set Wed evening. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts expected
Wed afternoon thru early evening before sunset. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains and portions of northern Gila county Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Winds have dropped off this evening, and updates
were made to reduce the winds. Cloud cover was also reduced for
the overnight time period.
Breezy to windy conditions develop on Wednesday as a trough goes
by to the north. Near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible along and west northwest of a line from Prescott to
Winslow to Kayenta.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...Mostly dry weather with near
average early July temperatures will persist through the 7 day
forecast period. A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
will bring elevated southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind
speeds will be slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts
approaching 35 mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased
winds combined with low afternoon humidity will cause near
critical fire weather conditions generally from the I-40 corridor
north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will redevelop aft 16Z Wed and
then dcrs aft sun set Wed evening. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts expected
Wed afternoon thru early evening before sunset. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Still looking at a few showers and thunderstorms near
the International Border around KDUG. Otherwise, skies were mostly
clear late this evening. The current forecast calls for a little
more thunderstorm activity tomorrow and the next few days. This
looks reasonable based on the latest model solutions. Thus, no
updates necessary this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/06Z.
Somewhat greater coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday
afternoon, with isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS
vicinity east and south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered to
broken clouds at 10k-15k ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at
less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Some increase in showers/tstms is
expected Wednesday into Friday, with the favored period during the
afternoon/evening hours. Have noted that the GFS continued to
befairly more robust to markedly more robust regarding precip
chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC solutions. For this forecast
package, made only minor adjustments to the inherited gridded data
PoP fields.Thus, isolated to scattered showers/tstms from Tucson
eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday with dry conditions across
western/central Pima County and south-central Pinal County.
Have maintained a slight chance of showers/ tstms Saturday across
the White Mountains and far southeastern sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
835 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Another very quiet evening across our cwa, with westerly flow all
the way through the column keeping monsoon moisture and thunderstorms
well off to our south, mainly over extreme se AZ and northern
Mexico. The combination of clear skies and a dry airmass (the 00z
PSR sounding showing a pwat of only 0.81 inch) allowed temperatures
to rise to near or slightly above 110F at the warmer lower desert
locations again this afternoon. Tonight`s low appear that they will be
very close to last night`s, in the upper-70 to mid-80 range across
the lower deserts. Given current trends, other than some slight
adjustments to the hourly temp/dewpoint grids, inherited forecasts
are still looking good, and no updates are planned.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong high pressure aloft and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep
skies mainly clear through the taf period. Winds to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the
Phx area terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and
stronger westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Percha/AJ
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly
near the international border south-to-southeast of Tucson this
evening. These showers/tstms will end by midnight followed by clear
skies or mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Some increase in showers/tstms is expected Wednesday into Friday,
with the favored period during the afternoon/evening hours. Have
noted that the GFS continued to be fairly more robust to markedly
more robust regarding precip chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC
solutions. For this forecast package, made only minor adjustments to
the inherited gridded data PoP fields. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers/tstms from Tucson eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday
with dry conditions across western/central Pima County and south-
central Pinal County. Have maintained a slight chance of showers/
tstms Saturday across the White Mountains and far southeastern
sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/00Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this evening mainly near the
international border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs. Somewhat greater
coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday afternoon, with
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS vicinity east and
south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south,
a few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening
followed by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Scattered to broken clouds at 10k-15k
ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind this evening and
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at less
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Francis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry weather with near average early July
temperatures will persist through the 7 day forecast period. A
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will bring elevated
southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind speeds will be
slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts approaching 35
mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased winds combined
with low afternoon humidity will cause near critical fire weather
conditions generally from the I-40 corridor north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will diminish after sunset
tonight and redevelop aft 16Z Wed. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts
expected Wed afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will favor a normal diurnal sequence with occasional wind gusts
of 15 to 20 kts. through the early evening--although more frequent
wind gusts are likely for the southeast California terminals.
Otherwise skies will remain mostly clear with few to sct mid and
high clouds throughout the period.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
911 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring warm and
mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains.
&&
.UPDATE...Overall the forecast is in good shape, with no updates
planned this morning. Dry southwest flow remains in control with
breezes expected each afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /349 AM MST/...A drying west-southwesterly flow will
persist over the next several days across northern Arizona. This
will lead to fair and generally dry, but somewhat breezy, weather
for much of the coming week. Near normal temperatures are also
anticipated. While intermittent pushes of moisture may produce a
slight chance for thunderstorms over far eastern Arizona, the
pattern looks typical for an extended monsoonal break through the 7-
day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hrs, with breezy south to southwest winds each afternoon. A
slight chance of an afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA over the White Mtns
southeast of KSOW remains possible. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier southwesterly flow regime will limit any
chance for a shower or storm to the White Mountains through
Wednesday. Breezy afternoon winds will develop, with the highest
wind speeds Wednesday as a trough passes north of the state.
Thursday through Saturday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...dry
weather with breezy afternoons expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NWS Las Vegas
PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
904 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably dry air will continue to filter into the region as the
pattern will transition away from a typical summer monsoon
appearance. Temperatures will remain in a near normal range
throughout the week under mostly clear skies. Only a modest chance
of showers will exist through southeast and eastern Arizona during
the midweek period, with virtually no chance of rain at lower
elevations from central Arizona through southern California.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the larger circulation features over western North America
and northeast Pacific include troughing centered over the Canadian
Rockies (extending well into the NW CONUS), a large anticyclone west
of the trough, and a very broad region of high pressure with an axis
extending from west of Baja Mexico to east of Florida (containing
multiple anticyclonic circulations). With troughing to the northwest
and the axis of high pressure just to the south, our forecast area is
largely within southwesterly flow aloft. There is a weak disturbance
within that southwesterly flow which is producing some altocumulus.
However, the 12Z soundings show that this disturbance will not be
able to do much of anything else given how warm aloft we are and the
drying that has taken place in the lower levels. Thus, we will have
another very warm day with storm activity limited to areas well
outside of our territory (near the New Mexico border). For Wed and
Thu, the models depict the westerlies weakening slightly along with a
shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within the high pressure
region over/near us. This allows for a temporary incursion of
deep moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Made some subtle upward adjustments
to the temperatures for today otherwise, forecasts in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 145 am MST/PDT
High pressure remains situated over northern Chihuahua early this
morning while several shortwaves continue to carve out longwave
troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration will
only reinforce southwest/westerly flow throughout the SW Conus with
an overall anti- cyclonic subsident regime. Boundary layer moisture
also continues to be eroded with 00Z KPSR sounding data sampling an
anemic 6 g/kg sfc-H7 mixing ratio, while KTWC data was only slightly
more supportive for convective development at 8 g/kg. However,
unusually warm temperatures aloft have been amplifying with H5
readings spiking at -4C and falling near the climatological 90th
percentile capping any deep convection.
This general pattern will essentially hold for the entire week
keeping all but the southeast portions of Arizona devoid of
thunderstorms (much less for all but afternoon fair weather mountain
cumulus). The operational GFS still maintains a forecast of more
robust Sonoran outflow advecting marginally better moisture profiles
northward towards Pinal and Gila counties Wednesday and Thursday.
However, trends in this operational run have definitely been towards
a lower magnitude and less influential moisture push with only 8
g/kg materializing in the sfc-H7 layer. Thus, other than a brief
shower/virga over far southeast Gila County, saw no justifiable
reason to include any pops through the remainder of the forecast
area into the weekend.
One positive of this scenario is unlike most mid-monsoon season
pattern breakdowns, this convectively inactive period will feature
H5 heights depressed near 592dm and afternoon H8 temperatures only
hovering between +25C and +29C. Typically, breaks in thunderstorm
activity in July would result in near record highs, but model output
emphatically supports temperatures near to only slightly above
average throughout the week. In fact, spread among all post
processed raw and numerical guidance persists in an extremely narrow
range yielding excellent forecast confidence.
Convection will continue to remain thoroughly absent from the
forecast area well into next week as larger negative height
anomalies develop over the Pacific Northwest. This will exacerbate
westerly flow through the intermountain west and SW Conus further
eliminating any sense of quality boundary layer moisture across the
forecast area. There is strong evidence that sfc dewpoints through
the weekend and into early next week fall into the 30s with total
column Pwats descending towards 0.50 inches (climatologically near
the 10th percentile for early/mid July). Thus, instead of entering
deeper into monsoon flow of mid July, the atmosphere is actually
regressing more towards an early June dry pattern. Though ensemble
spread begins to grow towards the middle of next week, it may very
well be until the end of next week at the earliest before sufficient
moisture can return north and storm chances reenter the forecast
picture.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry westerly flow aloft with only few to sct high clouds at all area
terminals. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal trends, with some
afternoon gustiness likely, especially at KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
Dry southwesterly flow aloft will be in place through early next
week. Minimum humidity values will be at or below 10% at most lower
desert locations. Overnight recovery will be only fair. Surface
winds will favor south-southwesterly in the afternoon and evening
with gusts in the teens. Overall, the pattern is more characteristic
of June rather than July.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A relatively dry air mass with westerly flow aloft
will continue to limit thunderstorm coverage today. More moisture
will increase thunderstorm chances the second half of the week.
Another drier and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
depicted clear skies across much of southeast Arizona at this time.
A few mid-level clouds were noted northwest of Tucson in the
vicinity of Picacho Peak, and near the International border adjacent
Cochise County. Dewpoints at lower elevations valid 15Z ranged from
the 50s-lower 60s, and these temps were nearly identical to 24 hours
ago. Surface temps valid 15Z were also essentially unchanged versus
this time Monday.
05/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 1.11 inches
increased only 0.04 inch versus 24 hours ago. The column was nearly
saturated around 600 mb but was quite dry in the surface-700 mb
layer and above 500 mb. 05/12Z upper air plots depicted a 500 mb
ridge axis that extended from west of northern Baja California
eastward to Florida. Meanwhile, a belt of westerlies encompassed the
northern CONUS with a 559 dm low centered over British Columbia.
Light wly/swly flow aloft prevailed across southeast Arizona.
The 12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM was similar to the HRRR in depicting the
initial development for showers/tstms late this morning or early
this afternoon to occur near the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern
Cochise County, or perhaps further west near the Huachuca Mountains
in southwestern Cochise County. The bulk of showers/tstms later this
afternoon and evening is progged to occur generally across the New
Mexico bootheel, but some precip echoes were progged to be further
west into about the southeast one quarter of Cochise County.
Based on these solutions, see no reason to tamper with the official
forecast that depicts isolated showers/tstms this afternoon/evening
to occur from near Nogales eastward to the Chiricahua Mountains, or
generally near the International border adjacent eastern Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere, with high
temps this afternoon virtually identical to temps achieved Monday
afternoon.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening mainly near
the International border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south
few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening followed
by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Surface wind this afternoon will generally be wly
at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be
variable in direction at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Enough moisture will linger for thunderstorms near
the International border again today, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Another brief push of moisture will bring increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from near Tucson south and east Wednesday
into Friday. Drying will then occur once again this weekend. 20-ft
winds will generally favor diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with
some enhancement in areas where afternoon westerly/northwesterly
flow is the norm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /150 AM MST/...Water vapor imagery and 05/00Z upper-
air plots show a sprawling ridge that extends generally west to east
from the central Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico and into west
Texas. This has resulted in a continuation of a dry westerly flow
aloft across the desert southwest as evidenced on the 05/00Z KTWC
sounding. The PW on the sounding was up a bit from 12 to 24 hours
ago, with a value of 1.28 inches, which was about two-tenths of an
inch greater. Both the CIRA LPW Total and the U of A GPS PW show a
value as of 06Z of just a tad over an inch.
Models indicate that the ridge to our south will shift eastward
through early Wednesday to a position over the southern plains with
the ridge axis extending westward across northern Mexico. As this
shift occurs, return flow on the western flank of the ridge will
allow moisture to increase during the middle to latter part of the
week. Therefore, expect thunderstorm chances to increase mainly
Wednesday into Thursday, with the focus for thunderstorms being from
around Nogales to Douglas, with the activity spreading a bit farther
north Thursday. For now it looks like the farthest northwestern
extent of the storms will be around the Tucson area, with very
little threat west and north of the city. Even so, it only looks
like isolated coverage for the Tucson metro. However, this could
change depending on what subsequent model runs indicate, so stay
tuned.
Confidence is not high at this point with the GFS being the most
robust model in wanting to bring in the threat for storms, whereas
the NAM and ECMWF, not so much. Just one example, looking at MOS POP
numbers for Tucson, the NAM shows POPS in the single digits for
Wednesday through Thursday, whereas the GFS has 12-hour POPS of 14,
39 and 21 percent for Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday,
respectively. ECMWF is much closer to the NAM numbers. So, sorta
went with a blend, but not yet close to the GFS values, especially
for Wednesday night. With subsequent model runs, the forecast may
change between now and the middle to latter part of the week.
Confidence is moderate to high at this point that areas along the
international border will see at least scattered convection.
By the weekend a low pressure system will begin to affect the
Pacific northwest as the ridge becomes reestablished to our south
again, resulting in a drying trend for the weekend and into early
next week.
For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs above
normal today and then near normal Wednesday through Friday before
becoming around 2 to 4 degs above normal again for the weekend and
early next week. Low temps will range from 4 to 6 degs above normal
Wednesday morning, then around 2 to 4 degs above normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Late this afternoon temperatures were in the late 90s with dewpoints
int he the mid to upper 70s across east central KS, which has caused
heat indices to be in the 110 to 114 degree range. The mixing was a
bit deeper across the western counties where dewpoints have dropped
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Most numerical models do not show thunderstorms developing across
the CWA this afternoon and evening, though MLCAPE values range from
4,000 to 5,000 J/KG. The HRRR is the only model that shows isolated
thunderstorms developing across the CWA late this afternoon and
evening but based on the lack of vertical CU development, I really
do not see any boundary or minor vortmaxes that could help increase
ascent for any thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Tonight, most models show scattered thunderstorms across northeast
CO and the southern NE Panhandle this afternoon congealing into an
MCS which will track east or southeast across the plains. The HRRR,
NAM, and WRF solutions show the MCS tracking southeast across the
CWA, though it may begin to weaken as it moves into northeast and
east central KS late Tonight. If an MCS develops and maintains its
intensity through the night then there will be a chance for heavy
rainfall and potential damaging wind gusts along with penny to
quarter size hail, with the better chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms across north central KS during the early morning
hours Wednesday. The exact track and the intensity of the MCS will
not be known until it develops and begins to propagate to the
southeast. Therefore, I went with chance pops after 6Z across the
CWA but there will be higher pops wherever the MCS tracks.
Wednesday, The morning thunderstorm complex will exit the eastern
counties of the CWA by 15Z. Skies should clear from west to east
across the CWA during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Highs should warm into the lower and mid 90s across the southern
counties along with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s. If the MCS
remains intense through the morning hours, then an outflow boundary
may shift south of the CWA and the cloud cover may hold through most
of the afternoon hours keeping Highs several degrees cooler. At this
time I think we will clear out by afternoon and heat up into the mid
90s south of I-70. Therefore I have issued a heat advisory for areas
along and south of I-70 from 12 Noon through 8 PM Wednesday where
heat indices around 105 degrees during the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Storms are expected to form in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska Wednesday
evening and move east toward the area overnight. There is a chance
some storms may make it into the northern portion of the CWA by late
evening so low end PoPs are included during this time frame mainly
north of I-70. Thunderstorm chances continue for Thursday as another
shortwave is forecast to move through late afternoon into the
evening. Soundings indicate a cap will be in place most of the
afternoon Thursday, but with a front in the area and sufficient
heating, the cap should degrade allowing a chance for storms to
form. Models show high CAPE values over 3000 J/kg along with 0-6 km
shear ranging between 25-35 knots. This makes organized convection
possible with strong winds and gusty hail being the main hazard.
Friday looks to have the best chance to be dry, although another
shortwave near central Kansas may provide some focus for storms in
east central Kansas during the afternoon Friday. As for
temperatures during this time, the hottest day looks to be Thursday
with heat indicies once again near 105 degrees due to dewpoints in
the low 70s Thursday afternoon. The front finally makes it through
the area this day allowing Friday to cool slightly with highs in the
low 90s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Weak mid-level ridging will be in place at the beginning of the
period. A frontal boundary is expected to stall in southern Kansas
Saturday afternoon. This may be the focal point for thunderstorm
development Saturday afternoon and evening. An amplified trough will
be in place across the Western US late next weekend. EC and GFS
differ on the effects from the trough. GFS much more bullish with
strength of a shortwave trough lifting out from base of the trough.
The unsettled pattern will continue through the remainder of the
period as a potentially unstable atmosphere will be in place. As mid-
level southwesterly flow settles in across the area, weak embedded
waves will have the potential to spark thunderstorm activity for the
remainder of the period. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal
with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dew
points near 70 degrees, heat index values will range from the mid-
90s to near 100 degrees for the entire extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Have narrowed down VCTS a bit, with some uncertainty remaining on
coverage and timing even in the next few hours. Wind shear
continues to look to weak and short lived for a mention. VFR
conditions otherwise anticipated.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ034>039-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Baerg
AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
859 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure trough anchored along the west coast
will bring dry southwesterly winds into Arizona through next week.
The only exception will be low chances for a few thunderstorms in
the White Mountains region through Saturday. There remains a fair
chance this dry spell may last through the first half of July.
&&
.DISCUSSION...June weather ahead. What is known as a fair weather
pattern is upon us. Gusty winds will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns. Otherwise, many of us impatiently wait for the
return of the monsoon.
A long wave trough anchored along the west coast will
keep the subtropical ridge pinned down over northern Mexico. The
position of the trough/ridge couplet will keep Arizona locked into
a long term dry southwesterly flow pattern into next week. The
only exception to this extended dry spell will be slight chances
for thunderstorms across the White Mountains region each day
through Saturday.
Our confidence in this dry pattern remains high into the first
half of next week. There is a fair chance this dry break in the
otherwise wet Monsoon pattern will last through at least mid July.
Surface winds will become breezy as short wave troughs move
through the long wave pattern increasing the pressure gradient. A
few days this week may approach critical fire weather thresholds
with very dry humidity levels and stronger wind speeds.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hours. A weak weather system will bring
southwest winds of 10-25 kts gusting 35 kts into the early
evening. Light winds overnight with another round of locally
gusty winds set for Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An increase in southwest winds combined with low
humidity this afternoon will result in near critical fire weather
conditions from Flagstaff north and west. There will be a slight
chance for afternoon and evening high based thunderstorms over
portions of the White Mountains Thursday afternoon.
.Friday through Sunday...Near average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions are forecast through the period, except for a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms over portions of the White
Mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday
afternoon.
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum/TC
AVIATION...McCollum/TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.UPDATE...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in thunderstorm activity with near average temperatures will
continue into next week. While there will be a temporary incursion
of moisture into portions of Arizona today and Thursday,
thunderstorm chances will be limited to southeast Arizona. Unusually
quiet weather may persist through all of next week before any
storms can move north once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies are over the forecast office region although we are
starting to see some moisture and clouds pushing into far southeast
Arizona. In fact, dew points are significantly higher...especially
along the Colorado River valley and southwest Arizona. This was not
well represented in the models and so reflects a bit of a change for
the short-term outlook. Primarily for the lower deserts this means
there is a chance for some low-end monsoon activity for areas such as
southern Gila County and parts of Pinal County this afternoon. This
would primarily be in the form outflow activities such as blowing
dust and maybe a few showers. Accordingly will make slight tweak to
the PoPs for this afternoon and may have to take another look at
tomorrow as well.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak
inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however
has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure
center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains
situated over far SE Arizona. Deep westerly flow throughout the vast
majority of Arizona over the past 48 hours has progressively eroded
moisture with both 00Z KPSR and KTWC sounding data sampling only 5
g/kg within the boundary layer and total column pwats falling near
0.75 inches. However, the degenerated Sonoran convective complex has
created a pool of more substantial moisture which will partially
bleed north across the international border in weak southwest flow
today and Thursday.
The first signs of this moisture intrusion can be seen in overnight
KOLS observations with enhanced south winds and sfc dewpoints
jumping over 60F. Forecast BUFR soundings resoundingly show some of
this shallow moisture advecting north into the Phoenix area later
this morning, and eventually deeper 8-9 g/kg sfc-H7 profiles
enveloping much of the eastern third of the forecast area this
afternoon. However, temperatures in the H7-H5 layer remain
unseasonably warm under a general anti-cyclonic subsident flow
regime leaving minimal instability and notable Cinh. While a stray
shower could conceivably clip through higher terrain areas of
southern Gila county, ensemble probabilities barely breach single
digits through Thursday before dropping off completely heading into
the weekend.
The most notable weather feature locally through the weekend and
into early next week is actually the complete lack of weather and
thunderstorm activity. Deep negative height anomalies (around 2
normalized standard deviations below average) will propagate from
the Pacific NW into the Great Basin with intense jet energy punching
over the Sierra chain towards the central Rockies. Essentially every
NAEFS member shows this scenario where the mid and upper
tropospheric u-wind component becomes anomalously strong and within
a climatologically rare threshold for mid July. Unlike much of the
summer season, forecast confidence is exceedingly high and so much
so as to assign absolutely no chance of rainfall for the entire Sat-
Wed time frame as aggressive drying spreads through the atmospheric
column. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed
troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm
yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The persistent dry westerly flow aloft continues, but a brief
resurgence of low level moisture will make its way northward into
southeast Arizona today. However, any thunderstorm activity today
will stay well to our southeast with only minimal chance of any
cirrus blowoff this evening. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal
trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the Phx area
terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and stronger
westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow will maintain seasonable
temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of rain.
Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to 12
percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds peaking at 15 to 20
mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up to 20
to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight recoveries
will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Waters/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
513 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in thunderstorm activity with near average temperatures will
continue into next week. While there will be a temporary incursion
of moisture into portions of Arizona today and Thursday,
thunderstorm chances will be limited to southeast Arizona. Unusually
quiet weather may persist through all of next week before any
storms can move north once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak
inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however
has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure
center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains
situated over far SE Arizona. Deep westerly flow throughout the vast
majority of Arizona over the past 48 hours has progressively eroded
moisture with both 00Z KPSR and KTWC sounding data sampling only 5
g/kg within the boundary layer and total column pwats falling near
0.75 inches. However, the degenerated Sonoran convective complex has
created a pool of more substantial moisture which will partially
bleed north across the international border in weak southwest flow
today and Thursday.
The first signs of this moisture intrusion can be seen in overnight
KOLS observations with enhanced south winds and sfc dewpoints
jumping over 60F. Forecast BUFR soundings resoundingly show some of
this shallow moisture advecting north into the Phoenix area later
this morning, and eventually deeper 8-9 g/kg sfc-H7 profiles
enveloping much of the eastern third of the forecast area this
afternoon. However, temperatures in the H7-H5 layer remain
unseasonably warm under a general anti-cyclonic subsident flow
regime leaving minimal instability and notable Cinh. While a stray
shower could conceivably clip through higher terrain areas of
southern Gila county, ensemble probabilities barely breach single
digits through Thursday before dropping off completely heading into
the weekend.
The most notable weather feature locally through the weekend and
into early next week is actually the complete lack of weather and
thunderstorm activity. Deep negative height anomalies (around 2
normalized standard deviations below average) will propagate from
the Pacific NW into the Great Basin with intense jet energy punching
over the Sierra chain towards the central Rockies. Essentially every
NAEFS member shows this scenario where the mid and upper
tropospheric u-wind component becomes anomalously strong and within
a climatologically rare threshold for mid July. Unlike much of the
summer season, forecast confidence is exceedingly high and so much
so as to assign absolutely no chance of rainfall for the entire Sat-
Wed time frame as aggressive drying spreads through the atmospheric
column. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed
troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm
yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The persistent dry westerly flow aloft continues, but a brief
resurgence of low level moisture will make its way northward into
southeast Arizona today. However, any thunderstorm activity today
will stay well to our southeast with only minimal chance of any
cirrus blowoff this evening. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal
trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the Phx area
terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and stronger
westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow will maintain seasonable
temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of rain.
Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to 12
percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds peaking at 15 to 20
mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up to 20
to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight recoveries
will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
513 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in thunderstorm activity with near average temperatures will
continue into next week. While there will be a temporary incursion
of moisture into portions of Arizona today and Thursday,
thunderstorm chances will be limited to southeast Arizona. Unusually
quiet weather may persist through all of next week before any
storms can move north once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak
inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however
has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure
center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains
situated over far SE Arizona. Deep westerly flow throughout the vast
majority of Arizona over the past 48 hours has progressively eroded
moisture with both 00Z KPSR and KTWC sounding data sampling only 5
g/kg within the boundary layer and total column pwats falling near
0.75 inches. However, the degenerated Sonoran convective complex has
created a pool of more substantial moisture which will partially
bleed north across the international border in weak southwest flow
today and Thursday.
The first signs of this moisture intrusion can be seen in overnight
KOLS observations with enhanced south winds and sfc dewpoints
jumping over 60F. Forecast BUFR soundings resoundingly show some of
this shallow moisture advecting north into the Phoenix area later
this morning, and eventually deeper 8-9 g/kg sfc-H7 profiles
enveloping much of the eastern third of the forecast area this
afternoon. However, temperatures in the H7-H5 layer remain
unseasonably warm under a general anti-cyclonic subsident flow
regime leaving minimal instability and notable Cinh. While a stray
shower could conceivably clip through higher terrain areas of
southern Gila county, ensemble probabilities barely breach single
digits through Thursday before dropping off completely heading into
the weekend.
The most notable weather feature locally through the weekend and
into early next week is actually the complete lack of weather and
thunderstorm activity. Deep negative height anomalies (around 2
normalized standard deviations below average) will propagate from
the Pacific NW into the Great Basin with intense jet energy punching
over the Sierra chain towards the central Rockies. Essentially every
NAEFS member shows this scenario where the mid and upper
tropospheric u-wind component becomes anomalously strong and within
a climatologically rare threshold for mid July. Unlike much of the
summer season, forecast confidence is exceedingly high and so much
so as to assign absolutely no chance of rainfall for the entire Sat-
Wed time frame as aggressive drying spreads through the atmospheric
column. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed
troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm
yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The persistent dry westerly flow aloft continues, but a brief
resurgence of low level moisture will make its way northward into
southeast Arizona today. However, any thunderstorm activity today
will stay well to our southeast with only minimal chance of any
cirrus blowoff this evening. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal
trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the Phx area
terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and stronger
westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow will maintain seasonable
temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of rain.
Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to 12
percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds peaking at 15 to 20
mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up to 20
to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight recoveries
will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure trough anchored along the west coast
will bring dry southwesterly winds into Arizona through next week.
The only exception will be low chances for a few thunderstorms in
the White Mountains region through Saturday. There remains a fair
chance this dry spell may last through the first half of July.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A long wave trough anchored along the west coast
will keep the subtropical ridge pinned down over northern Mexico.
The position of the trough ridge couplet will keep Arizona locked
into a long term dry southwesterly flow pattern into next week.
The only exception to this extended dry spell will be slight
chances for thunderstorms across the White Mountains region each
day through Saturday.
Our confidence in this dry pattern remains high into the first
half of next week. There is a fair chance this dry break in the
otherwise wet Monsoon pattern will last through at least mid July.
Surface winds will become breezy as short wave troughs move
through the long wave pattern increasing the pressure gradient.
A few days this week may approach critical fire weather
thresholds with very dry humidity levels and stronger wind speeds.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will develop aft 15Z Wed and then
dcrs aft sun set Wed evening. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts expected Wed
afternoon thru early evening before sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An increase in southwest winds combined with low
humidity this afternoon will result in near critical fire weather
conditions from Flagstaff north and west. There will be a slight
chance for afternoon and evening high based thunderstorms over
portions of the White Mountains Thursday afternoon.
.Friday through Sunday...Near average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions are forecast through the period, except for a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms over portions of the White
Mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure trough anchored along the west coast
will bring dry southwesterly winds into Arizona through next week.
The only exception will be low chances for a few thunderstorms in
the White Mountains region through Saturday. There remains a fair
chance this dry spell may last through the first half of July.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A long wave trough anchored along the west coast
will keep the subtropical ridge pinned down over northern Mexico.
The position of the trough ridge couplet will keep Arizona locked
into a long term dry southwesterly flow pattern into next week.
The only exception to this extended dry spell will be slight
chances for thunderstorms across the White Mountains region each
day through Saturday.
Our confidence in this dry pattern remains high into the first
half of next week. There is a fair chance this dry break in the
otherwise wet Monsoon pattern will last through at least mid July.
Surface winds will become breezy as short wave troughs move
through the long wave pattern increasing the pressure gradient.
A few days this week may approach critical fire weather
thresholds with very dry humidity levels and stronger wind speeds.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will develop aft 15Z Wed and then
dcrs aft sun set Wed evening. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts expected Wed
afternoon thru early evening before sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An increase in southwest winds combined with low
humidity this afternoon will result in near critical fire weather
conditions from Flagstaff north and west. There will be a slight
chance for afternoon and evening high based thunderstorms over
portions of the White Mountains Thursday afternoon.
.Friday through Sunday...Near average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions are forecast through the period, except for a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms over portions of the White
Mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
150 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in thunderstorm activity with near average temperatures will
continue into next week. While there will be a temporary incursion
of moisture into portions of Arizona today and Thursday,
thunderstorm chances will be limited to southeast Arizona. Unusually
quiet weather may persist through all of next week before any
storms can move north once again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak
inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however
has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure
center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains
situated over far SE Arizona. Deep westerly flow throughout the vast
majority of Arizona over the past 48 hours has progressively eroded
moisture with both 00Z KPSR and KTWC sounding data sampling only 5
g/kg within the boundary layer and total column pwats falling near
0.75 inches. However, the degenerated Sonoran convective complex has
created a pool of more substantial moisture which will partially
bleed north across the international border in weak southwest flow
today and Thursday.
The first signs of this moisture intrusion can be seen in overnight
KOLS observations with enhanced south winds and sfc dewpoints
jumping over 60F. Forecast BUFR soundings resoundingly show some of
this shallow moisture advecting north into the Phoenix area later
this morning, and eventually deeper 8-9 g/kg sfc-H7 profiles
enveloping much of the eastern third of the forecast area this
afternoon. However, temperatures in the H7-H5 layer remain
unseasonably warm under a general anti-cyclonic subsident flow
regime leaving minimal instability and notable Cinh. While a stray
shower could conceivably clip through higher terrain areas of
southern Gila county, ensemble probabilities barely breach single
digits through Thursday before dropping off completely heading into
the weekend.
The most notable weather feature locally through the weekend and
into early next week is actually the complete lack of weather and
thunderstorm activity. Deep negative height anomalies (around 2
normalized standard deviations below average) will propagate from
the Pacific NW into the Great Basin with intense jet energy punching
over the Sierra chain towards the central Rockies. Essentially every
NAEFS member shows this scenario where the mid and upper
tropospheric u-wind component becomes anomalously strong and within
a climatologically rare threshold for mid July. Unlike much of the
summer season, forecast confidence is exceedingly high and so much
so as to assign absolutely no chance of rainfall for the entire Sat-
Wed time frame as aggressive drying spreads through the atmospheric
column. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed
troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm
yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong high pressure aloft and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep
skies mainly clear through the taf period. Winds to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the
Phx area terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and
stronger westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow will maintain seasonable
temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of rain.
Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to 12
percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds peaking at 15 to 20
mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up to 20
to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight recoveries
will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions nearly area-
wide Sunday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite
close to seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 06/00Z upper-air plots
continue to show an east to west oriented ridge axis that extends
from west Texas across northern Chihuahua Mexico and into south
central Sonora and across central Baja. IR satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies across Arizona with a decaying storm complex to
our south over eastern and southern portions of Sonora and
northwestern parts of Chihuahua.
The current synoptic setup continues to result in a dry westerly
flow aloft across the Desert Southwest. The PW from the 06/00Z KTWC
sounding was only 0.76 inches, compared to 1.28 inches from 24 hours
ago. The U of A GPS PW for Tucson as of 05Z was just a tad above
0.75 inches, while the 06Z CIRA LPW Total was 0.8 inches. However,
this is about to change as the CIRA LPW Total shows values of over
1.5 inches just to the south of the Cochise county border. In
addition, values of 2.0+ inches can be seen near and to the east of
MMHO (Hermosillo, Mexico) and values approaching 3 inches over
southern Sonora.
That said, the GFS has been advertising a fairly significant
increase in moisture and thus POPS for today through Thursday as
return flow along the western portion of the ridge ushers in
moisture. The latest model runs are beginning to show better
agreement than the past few days. The 06/00Z run of the NAM shows a
very significant increase in the POP numbers from just the 05/12Z
run, going from 3 percent for Tucson this afternoon to 34 percent.
The GFS POP numbers have maintained consistency with values of
around 20-30 percent for this afternoon and evening and continuing a
solid chance category POPs through Thursday. ECMWF shows a slight
increase from single digits to the slight chance category through
Friday.
At any rate, the 06/00Z run of the U of A WRF/NAM shows development
over southwestern Cochise county by around Noon today and spreading
into eastern Santa Cruz county and eastern Pima by late in the
afternoon and/or early evening. The WRF/GFS shows initial
development in the same general location, but more intense and
spreading farther north into the Tucson metro and perhaps into
central parts of Pima county. Based on all of this recent
information, I did increase POPs for today through Thursday.
Confidence is moderate to high that at least scattered storms will
develop from around the Nogales area toward Douglas and eastward.
The tricky part is just how far to the north/northwest will the
convection develop. There will be a fairly tight POP gradient across
my forecast area into the Phoenix area where they are showing
virtually no chance of precipitation. I did adjust the forecast to
show isolated activity today for Tucson, but depending on just how
quickly the moisture moves in and what the 06/12Z KTWC sounding
reveals will help determine if that category of POP is too low, or
not. Day shift will have to see how things evolve and may have to
make adjustments to increase POPs farther north and west than what I
currently have in the forecast.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday, with
most of the threat along the border with New Mexico and between
Nogales and Douglas, but even then only isolated activity expected.
Virtually no threat of storms Saturday through early next week as
the ridge sets up to our south again, resulting in a dry south to
westerly flow aloft.
For Tucson, high and low temperatures will generally be at or
slightly above normal through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL with BKN conditions mainly S and E of
KTUS this afternoon/evening. Isolated-scattered -SHRA/-TSRA this
afternoon mainly E of a KTUS-KOLS line, with some producing gusty
winds and brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, sfc winds will generally
be terrain driven at 12 kts or less this morning, becoming wly/swly
at 10-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon. Light and
terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect better coverage of showers and storms today
through Friday, with some developing as far north as the I-10
corridor including Tucson. Storms will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds to 40 mph. Drying will then occur once again this
weekend. Outside of convection, 20-ft winds will generally favor
diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with some enhancement in areas
where afternoon westerly/northwesterly flow is the norm.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 AM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions nearly area-
wide Sunday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite
close to seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 06/00Z upper-air plots
continue to show an east to west oriented ridge axis that extends
from west Texas across northern Chihuahua Mexico and into south
central Sonora and across central Baja. IR satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies across Arizona with a decaying storm complex to
our south over eastern and southern portions of Sonora and
northwestern parts of Chihuahua.
The current synoptic setup continues to result in a dry westerly
flow aloft across the Desert Southwest. The PW from the 06/00Z KTWC
sounding was only 0.76 inches, compared to 1.28 inches from 24 hours
ago. The U of A GPS PW for Tucson as of 05Z was just a tad above
0.75 inches, while the 06Z CIRA LPW Total was 0.8 inches. However,
this is about to change as the CIRA LPW Total shows values of over
1.5 inches just to the south of the Cochise county border. In
addition, values of 2.0+ inches can be seen near and to the east of
MMHO (Hermosillo, Mexico) and values approaching 3 inches over
southern Sonora.
That said, the GFS has been advertising a fairly significant
increase in moisture and thus POPS for today through Thursday as
return flow along the western portion of the ridge ushers in
moisture. The latest model runs are beginning to show better
agreement than the past few days. The 06/00Z run of the NAM shows a
very significant increase in the POP numbers from just the 05/12Z
run, going from 3 percent for Tucson this afternoon to 34 percent.
The GFS POP numbers have maintained consistency with values of
around 20-30 percent for this afternoon and evening and continuing a
solid chance category POPs through Thursday. ECMWF shows a slight
increase from single digits to the slight chance category through
Friday.
At any rate, the 06/00Z run of the U of A WRF/NAM shows development
over southwestern Cochise county by around Noon today and spreading
into eastern Santa Cruz county and eastern Pima by late in the
afternoon and/or early evening. The WRF/GFS shows initial
development in the same general location, but more intense and
spreading farther north into the Tucson metro and perhaps into
central parts of Pima county. Based on all of this recent
information, I did increase POPs for today through Thursday.
Confidence is moderate to high that at least scattered storms will
develop from around the Nogales area toward Douglas and eastward.
The tricky part is just how far to the north/northwest will the
convection develop. There will be a fairly tight POP gradient across
my forecast area into the Phoenix area where they are showing
virtually no chance of precipitation. I did adjust the forecast to
show isolated activity today for Tucson, but depending on just how
quickly the moisture moves in and what the 06/12Z KTWC sounding
reveals will help determine if that category of POP is too low, or
not. Day shift will have to see how things evolve and may have to
make adjustments to increase POPs farther north and west than what I
currently have in the forecast.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday, with
most of the threat along the border with New Mexico and between
Nogales and Douglas, but even then only isolated activity expected.
Virtually no threat of storms Saturday through early next week as
the ridge sets up to our south again, resulting in a dry south to
westerly flow aloft.
For Tucson, high and low temperatures will generally be at or
slightly above normal through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL with BKN conditions mainly S and E of
KTUS this afternoon/evening. Isolated-scattered -SHRA/-TSRA this
afternoon mainly E of a KTUS-KOLS line, with some producing gusty
winds and brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, sfc winds will generally
be terrain driven at 12 kts or less this morning, becoming wly/swly
at 10-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon. Light and
terrain driven winds will then resume during the overnight hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect better coverage of showers and storms today
through Friday, with some developing as far north as the I-10
corridor including Tucson. Storms will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds to 40 mph. Drying will then occur once again this
weekend. Outside of convection, 20-ft winds will generally favor
diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with some enhancement in areas
where afternoon westerly/northwesterly flow is the norm.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains and portions of northern Gila county Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Winds have dropped off this evening, and updates
were made to reduce the winds. Cloud cover was also reduced for
the overnight time period.
Breezy to windy conditions develop on Wednesday as a trough goes
by to the north. Near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible along and west northwest of a line from Prescott to
Winslow to Kayenta.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...Mostly dry weather with near
average early July temperatures will persist through the 7 day
forecast period. A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
will bring elevated southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind
speeds will be slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts
approaching 35 mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased
winds combined with low afternoon humidity will cause near
critical fire weather conditions generally from the I-40 corridor
north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will redevelop aft 16Z Wed and
then dcrs aft sun set Wed evening. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts expected
Wed afternoon thru early evening before sunset. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains and portions of northern Gila county Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Winds have dropped off this evening, and updates
were made to reduce the winds. Cloud cover was also reduced for
the overnight time period.
Breezy to windy conditions develop on Wednesday as a trough goes
by to the north. Near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible along and west northwest of a line from Prescott to
Winslow to Kayenta.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...Mostly dry weather with near
average early July temperatures will persist through the 7 day
forecast period. A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
will bring elevated southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind
speeds will be slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts
approaching 35 mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased
winds combined with low afternoon humidity will cause near
critical fire weather conditions generally from the I-40 corridor
north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will redevelop aft 16Z Wed and
then dcrs aft sun set Wed evening. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts expected
Wed afternoon thru early evening before sunset. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Still looking at a few showers and thunderstorms near
the International Border around KDUG. Otherwise, skies were mostly
clear late this evening. The current forecast calls for a little
more thunderstorm activity tomorrow and the next few days. This
looks reasonable based on the latest model solutions. Thus, no
updates necessary this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/06Z.
Somewhat greater coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday
afternoon, with isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS
vicinity east and south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered to
broken clouds at 10k-15k ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at
less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Some increase in showers/tstms is
expected Wednesday into Friday, with the favored period during the
afternoon/evening hours. Have noted that the GFS continued to
befairly more robust to markedly more robust regarding precip
chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC solutions. For this forecast
package, made only minor adjustments to the inherited gridded data
PoP fields.Thus, isolated to scattered showers/tstms from Tucson
eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday with dry conditions across
western/central Pima County and south-central Pinal County.
Have maintained a slight chance of showers/ tstms Saturday across
the White Mountains and far southeastern sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
835 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Another very quiet evening across our cwa, with westerly flow all
the way through the column keeping monsoon moisture and thunderstorms
well off to our south, mainly over extreme se AZ and northern
Mexico. The combination of clear skies and a dry airmass (the 00z
PSR sounding showing a pwat of only 0.81 inch) allowed temperatures
to rise to near or slightly above 110F at the warmer lower desert
locations again this afternoon. Tonight`s low appear that they will be
very close to last night`s, in the upper-70 to mid-80 range across
the lower deserts. Given current trends, other than some slight
adjustments to the hourly temp/dewpoint grids, inherited forecasts
are still looking good, and no updates are planned.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong high pressure aloft and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep
skies mainly clear through the taf period. Winds to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends, with gusty afternoon westerly breezes at the
Phx area terminals, gusty southerly afternoon winds at KBLH, and
stronger westerly sundowner winds at KIPL again Wed evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Percha/AJ
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly
near the international border south-to-southeast of Tucson this
evening. These showers/tstms will end by midnight followed by clear
skies or mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Some increase in showers/tstms is expected Wednesday into Friday,
with the favored period during the afternoon/evening hours. Have
noted that the GFS continued to be fairly more robust to markedly
more robust regarding precip chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC
solutions. For this forecast package, made only minor adjustments to
the inherited gridded data PoP fields. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers/tstms from Tucson eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday
with dry conditions across western/central Pima County and south-
central Pinal County. Have maintained a slight chance of showers/
tstms Saturday across the White Mountains and far southeastern
sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/00Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this evening mainly near the
international border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs. Somewhat greater
coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday afternoon, with
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS vicinity east and
south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south,
a few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening
followed by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Scattered to broken clouds at 10k-15k
ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind this evening and
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at less
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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Francis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry weather with near average early July
temperatures will persist through the 7 day forecast period. A
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will bring elevated
southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind speeds will be
slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts approaching 35
mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased winds combined
with low afternoon humidity will cause near critical fire weather
conditions generally from the I-40 corridor north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will diminish after sunset
tonight and redevelop aft 16Z Wed. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts
expected Wed afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will favor a normal diurnal sequence with occasional wind gusts
of 15 to 20 kts. through the early evening--although more frequent
wind gusts are likely for the southeast California terminals.
Otherwise skies will remain mostly clear with few to sct mid and
high clouds throughout the period.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
911 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring warm and
mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains.
&&
.UPDATE...Overall the forecast is in good shape, with no updates
planned this morning. Dry southwest flow remains in control with
breezes expected each afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /349 AM MST/...A drying west-southwesterly flow will
persist over the next several days across northern Arizona. This
will lead to fair and generally dry, but somewhat breezy, weather
for much of the coming week. Near normal temperatures are also
anticipated. While intermittent pushes of moisture may produce a
slight chance for thunderstorms over far eastern Arizona, the
pattern looks typical for an extended monsoonal break through the 7-
day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hrs, with breezy south to southwest winds each afternoon. A
slight chance of an afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA over the White Mtns
southeast of KSOW remains possible. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier southwesterly flow regime will limit any
chance for a shower or storm to the White Mountains through
Wednesday. Breezy afternoon winds will develop, with the highest
wind speeds Wednesday as a trough passes north of the state.
Thursday through Saturday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...dry
weather with breezy afternoons expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NWS Las Vegas
PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
904 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably dry air will continue to filter into the region as the
pattern will transition away from a typical summer monsoon
appearance. Temperatures will remain in a near normal range
throughout the week under mostly clear skies. Only a modest chance
of showers will exist through southeast and eastern Arizona during
the midweek period, with virtually no chance of rain at lower
elevations from central Arizona through southern California.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the larger circulation features over western North America
and northeast Pacific include troughing centered over the Canadian
Rockies (extending well into the NW CONUS), a large anticyclone west
of the trough, and a very broad region of high pressure with an axis
extending from west of Baja Mexico to east of Florida (containing
multiple anticyclonic circulations). With troughing to the northwest
and the axis of high pressure just to the south, our forecast area is
largely within southwesterly flow aloft. There is a weak disturbance
within that southwesterly flow which is producing some altocumulus.
However, the 12Z soundings show that this disturbance will not be
able to do much of anything else given how warm aloft we are and the
drying that has taken place in the lower levels. Thus, we will have
another very warm day with storm activity limited to areas well
outside of our territory (near the New Mexico border). For Wed and
Thu, the models depict the westerlies weakening slightly along with a
shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within the high pressure
region over/near us. This allows for a temporary incursion of
deep moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Made some subtle upward adjustments
to the temperatures for today otherwise, forecasts in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 145 am MST/PDT
High pressure remains situated over northern Chihuahua early this
morning while several shortwaves continue to carve out longwave
troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration will
only reinforce southwest/westerly flow throughout the SW Conus with
an overall anti- cyclonic subsident regime. Boundary layer moisture
also continues to be eroded with 00Z KPSR sounding data sampling an
anemic 6 g/kg sfc-H7 mixing ratio, while KTWC data was only slightly
more supportive for convective development at 8 g/kg. However,
unusually warm temperatures aloft have been amplifying with H5
readings spiking at -4C and falling near the climatological 90th
percentile capping any deep convection.
This general pattern will essentially hold for the entire week
keeping all but the southeast portions of Arizona devoid of
thunderstorms (much less for all but afternoon fair weather mountain
cumulus). The operational GFS still maintains a forecast of more
robust Sonoran outflow advecting marginally better moisture profiles
northward towards Pinal and Gila counties Wednesday and Thursday.
However, trends in this operational run have definitely been towards
a lower magnitude and less influential moisture push with only 8
g/kg materializing in the sfc-H7 layer. Thus, other than a brief
shower/virga over far southeast Gila County, saw no justifiable
reason to include any pops through the remainder of the forecast
area into the weekend.
One positive of this scenario is unlike most mid-monsoon season
pattern breakdowns, this convectively inactive period will feature
H5 heights depressed near 592dm and afternoon H8 temperatures only
hovering between +25C and +29C. Typically, breaks in thunderstorm
activity in July would result in near record highs, but model output
emphatically supports temperatures near to only slightly above
average throughout the week. In fact, spread among all post
processed raw and numerical guidance persists in an extremely narrow
range yielding excellent forecast confidence.
Convection will continue to remain thoroughly absent from the
forecast area well into next week as larger negative height
anomalies develop over the Pacific Northwest. This will exacerbate
westerly flow through the intermountain west and SW Conus further
eliminating any sense of quality boundary layer moisture across the
forecast area. There is strong evidence that sfc dewpoints through
the weekend and into early next week fall into the 30s with total
column Pwats descending towards 0.50 inches (climatologically near
the 10th percentile for early/mid July). Thus, instead of entering
deeper into monsoon flow of mid July, the atmosphere is actually
regressing more towards an early June dry pattern. Though ensemble
spread begins to grow towards the middle of next week, it may very
well be until the end of next week at the earliest before sufficient
moisture can return north and storm chances reenter the forecast
picture.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry westerly flow aloft with only few to sct high clouds at all area
terminals. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal trends, with some
afternoon gustiness likely, especially at KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
Dry southwesterly flow aloft will be in place through early next
week. Minimum humidity values will be at or below 10% at most lower
desert locations. Overnight recovery will be only fair. Surface
winds will favor south-southwesterly in the afternoon and evening
with gusts in the teens. Overall, the pattern is more characteristic
of June rather than July.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A relatively dry air mass with westerly flow aloft
will continue to limit thunderstorm coverage today. More moisture
will increase thunderstorm chances the second half of the week.
Another drier and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
depicted clear skies across much of southeast Arizona at this time.
A few mid-level clouds were noted northwest of Tucson in the
vicinity of Picacho Peak, and near the International border adjacent
Cochise County. Dewpoints at lower elevations valid 15Z ranged from
the 50s-lower 60s, and these temps were nearly identical to 24 hours
ago. Surface temps valid 15Z were also essentially unchanged versus
this time Monday.
05/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 1.11 inches
increased only 0.04 inch versus 24 hours ago. The column was nearly
saturated around 600 mb but was quite dry in the surface-700 mb
layer and above 500 mb. 05/12Z upper air plots depicted a 500 mb
ridge axis that extended from west of northern Baja California
eastward to Florida. Meanwhile, a belt of westerlies encompassed the
northern CONUS with a 559 dm low centered over British Columbia.
Light wly/swly flow aloft prevailed across southeast Arizona.
The 12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM was similar to the HRRR in depicting the
initial development for showers/tstms late this morning or early
this afternoon to occur near the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern
Cochise County, or perhaps further west near the Huachuca Mountains
in southwestern Cochise County. The bulk of showers/tstms later this
afternoon and evening is progged to occur generally across the New
Mexico bootheel, but some precip echoes were progged to be further
west into about the southeast one quarter of Cochise County.
Based on these solutions, see no reason to tamper with the official
forecast that depicts isolated showers/tstms this afternoon/evening
to occur from near Nogales eastward to the Chiricahua Mountains, or
generally near the International border adjacent eastern Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere, with high
temps this afternoon virtually identical to temps achieved Monday
afternoon.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening mainly near
the International border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south
few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening followed
by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Surface wind this afternoon will generally be wly
at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be
variable in direction at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Enough moisture will linger for thunderstorms near
the International border again today, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Another brief push of moisture will bring increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from near Tucson south and east Wednesday
into Friday. Drying will then occur once again this weekend. 20-ft
winds will generally favor diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with
some enhancement in areas where afternoon westerly/northwesterly
flow is the norm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /150 AM MST/...Water vapor imagery and 05/00Z upper-
air plots show a sprawling ridge that extends generally west to east
from the central Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico and into west
Texas. This has resulted in a continuation of a dry westerly flow
aloft across the desert southwest as evidenced on the 05/00Z KTWC
sounding. The PW on the sounding was up a bit from 12 to 24 hours
ago, with a value of 1.28 inches, which was about two-tenths of an
inch greater. Both the CIRA LPW Total and the U of A GPS PW show a
value as of 06Z of just a tad over an inch.
Models indicate that the ridge to our south will shift eastward
through early Wednesday to a position over the southern plains with
the ridge axis extending westward across northern Mexico. As this
shift occurs, return flow on the western flank of the ridge will
allow moisture to increase during the middle to latter part of the
week. Therefore, expect thunderstorm chances to increase mainly
Wednesday into Thursday, with the focus for thunderstorms being from
around Nogales to Douglas, with the activity spreading a bit farther
north Thursday. For now it looks like the farthest northwestern
extent of the storms will be around the Tucson area, with very
little threat west and north of the city. Even so, it only looks
like isolated coverage for the Tucson metro. However, this could
change depending on what subsequent model runs indicate, so stay
tuned.
Confidence is not high at this point with the GFS being the most
robust model in wanting to bring in the threat for storms, whereas
the NAM and ECMWF, not so much. Just one example, looking at MOS POP
numbers for Tucson, the NAM shows POPS in the single digits for
Wednesday through Thursday, whereas the GFS has 12-hour POPS of 14,
39 and 21 percent for Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday,
respectively. ECMWF is much closer to the NAM numbers. So, sorta
went with a blend, but not yet close to the GFS values, especially
for Wednesday night. With subsequent model runs, the forecast may
change between now and the middle to latter part of the week.
Confidence is moderate to high at this point that areas along the
international border will see at least scattered convection.
By the weekend a low pressure system will begin to affect the
Pacific northwest as the ridge becomes reestablished to our south
again, resulting in a drying trend for the weekend and into early
next week.
For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs above
normal today and then near normal Wednesday through Friday before
becoming around 2 to 4 degs above normal again for the weekend and
early next week. Low temps will range from 4 to 6 degs above normal
Wednesday morning, then around 2 to 4 degs above normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 PM MST WED JUL 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Sunday into next Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring from
the far southern portion of the Tucson metro area eastward and
southward to the New Mexico/international borders at this time.
Rainfall amounts have generally been around one quarter of an inch,
though a few amounts to around one half of an inch have occurred.
Brief wind gusts to near 30 mph have also been observed.
Have noted that several HRRR solutions since 18Z have gradually
trended downward in coverage and intensity of showers/tstms for the
rest of this afternoon and evening versus HRRR solutions prior to
18Z. Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis suggests some
stabilization has occurred during the past 1-2 hours, with MUCAPES
of around 1000 J/kg versus values approaching 1500 J/kg near the
international border earlier this afternoon.
For this forecast issuance, have continued with scattered showers/
tstms from Tucson southward this evening, then a slight chance of
showers/tstms mainly from Tucson east and south late tonight. Am
somewhat concerned about any showers/tstms to occur late tonight,
since the GFS was the only model to depict measurable precip to
potentially occur. Expect isolated to scattered showers/tstms
Thursday afternoon/evening from Tucson east and south, then a slight
chance of showers/tstms east of Tucson late Thursday night into
Friday evening. Have maintained a slight chance of showers/tstms
Saturday across the White Mountains and far southeastern
sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over Oregon Sunday. A tighter mid-level gradient
will translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and shunt deeper
moisture well east of this forecast area. High pressure aloft is
progged to build over the southwestern CONUS Tue-Wed, and the upper
flow will weaken in response. However, the GFS/ECMWF depicted a very
dry regime across southeast Arizona, and precip-free conditions are
expected area-wide into the middle of next week. Only minor daily
temp changes will prevail into the middle of next week as well.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will occur from KTUS vicinity east and south
to the New Mexico/international borders this evening and again
Thursday afternoon. A slight chance of -TSRA/-SHRA exists late
tonight into Thursday morning, mainly east to south of KTUS.
Otherwise, clear skies to scattered clouds above 20k ft msl will
prevail west to northwest of KTUS thru Thursday afternoon. Surface
wind this evening and Thursday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-
15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable
in direction at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Sunday through next Wednesday. Apart from brief gusty
thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven
at less than 15 mph into the middle of next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
331 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016
Effects of northeast and southern KS convection this morning has
left airmass over the forecast area drier and not as hot as
previously forecast. Thus, have struggled to have HI values
approach 100 degrees across most of the area and have cancelled Heat
Advisory.
Main questions for the forecast for tonight and Thursday are: What
will be the mechanism for potential thunderstorms affecting us
tonight and Thursday, and whether temps and dewpoints will reach
high enough to meet heat index criteria Thursday afternoon?
For the latter question, currently forecasting temps in the mid 90s
in the north and east with upper 90s possible over portions of
central KS. Dewpoints are forecast to range from the lower to
possibly middle 70s in the east, while upper 60s to near 70 is more
realistic over central KS. This would lead to max HI values from 100
to 105 nearing advisory criteria. However, there is enough
uncertainty in reaching these values if we have our airmass once
again modified by convective outflows and some cloudiness from
overnight/morning thunderstorms near our area. Thus, have not
issued an advisory for Thursday and will let midnight forecast crew
decide on that as potential convective effects become less uncertain.
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over extreme western
KS, and possibly another one to the northwest in northern CO.
Most short and medium range models do not develop persistent
convection with these features. However a few runs of the HRRR and
experimental HRRR have been developing a cluster of storms over
eastern CO or southwest KS and bringing the associated convection
across eastern KS after midnight. Given inconsistency of these
HRRR runs, have not included any significant POPs from this
forecast convection. Possibly more likely scenario would be closer
to going forecast, and perhaps best depicted by 12Z NAM, where an
MCS is forecast to affect primarily Nebraska, with tail end
affecting far nothern and northeastern KS late tonight and
Thursday morning. This is what has been put in forecast grids, but
developments over western KS will obviously have to be monitored
for HRRR scenarios.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016
Strong upper wave will move across the Upper Midwest pushing a cold
front across the area Thu night. Capping and stronger lift
associated with the wave should keep the bulk of the precip NE of
the area but will keep low chcs in the northeast given strength of
wave. The front will sag into southern KS on Friday and will keep
low chcs across the southern counties near the front. By Friday
night into the weekend confidence in location and timing of precip
is low since recent performance of models has been poor with
placement of nocturnal convection. That said chcs would appear to
increase at least across central KS Fri night as the thetaE
advection increases atop the boundary. The area will remain within
the weak upper ridge with overnight storm chcs through the weekend
before a unusually strong upper trough moves into the Rockies by
early next week. This trough will push a front into the region by
later Monday into Tues so it would appear best chcs for organized
storms would occur around that time frame. The front will hang up
across the area toward mid week and with zonal flow wouldn`t be
surprised to see storm chcs persist through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016
Very little change expected through mid day Thursday. Expect
southerly winds 5 to 15 kts and VFR conditions. Very low
probabilities of late night/early morning thunderstorms, most
likely staying well to north of TAF sites.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...GDP