Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/05/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Have had to reverse course, as the high res models turned
out to be correct and ISOLD storms have developed along an
outflow boundary moving east across the SE Plains. ISOLD storms
should continue over the next few hours and gradually diminish
as forcing weakens tonight. Could see an ISOLD shower or storm
linger over the far SE Plains tonight. Rose
UPDATE Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Have had to reverse course, as the high res models turned
out to be correct and ISOLD storms have developed along an
outflow boundary moving east across the SE Plains. ISOLD storms
should continue over the next few hours and gradually diminish
as forcing weakens tonight. Could see an ISOLD shower or storm
linger over the far SE Plains tonight. Rose
UPDATE Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
851 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Still a bunch of high based showers with multiple outflow
boundaries over the Urban corridor and plains. Radar data showing
some isolated higher gusts up to 40kt with some of these showers.
Have extended pops for a few more hours as colliding boundaries
will continue to generate showers further into the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.
Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 840 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Terminals will be subject to several outflow boundaries at least
through 05z with erratic and gusty winds possible from 20-40kt.
Probably a similar day on Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Entrekin
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
459 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly across the higher
terrain with some drift into adjacent valleys. KTEX and KASE stand
the best chance of seeing conditions below ILS breakpoints in
brief moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds to 20 mph are also
possible in vicinity of any showers. Otherwise, most TAF sites
should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Most convection will
end shortly after 03Z. Isolated showers will continue across
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado mainly north of I-70 through
the early morning hours with KVEL possibly seeing a brief light
shower. Much drier conditions work in from the west Tuesday with
any afternoon convection limited to the northern Colorado
mountains and adjacent valleys...including KHDN and KSBS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
459 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly across the higher
terrain with some drift into adjacent valleys. KTEX and KASE stand
the best chance of seeing conditions below ILS breakpoints in
brief moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds to 20 mph are also
possible in vicinity of any showers. Otherwise, most TAF sites
should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Most convection will
end shortly after 03Z. Isolated showers will continue across
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado mainly north of I-70 through
the early morning hours with KVEL possibly seeing a brief light
shower. Much drier conditions work in from the west Tuesday with
any afternoon convection limited to the northern Colorado
mountains and adjacent valleys...including KHDN and KSBS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.
Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Isolated thunderstorms will be around through 02z. Biggest threat
will be outflow winds with gusts to 40 knots possible. Just a
20-30 percent chance that the Denver airports will see a
thunderstorm, but gusty outflow winds will likely produce a wind
shift or two between 22z and 02z. Other than outflow winds from
near by convection, southerly winds are expected to prevail
through Tuesday morning. Another round of isolated/scattered
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.
Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Isolated thunderstorms will be around through 02z. Biggest threat
will be outflow winds with gusts to 40 knots possible. Just a
20-30 percent chance that the Denver airports will see a
thunderstorm, but gusty outflow winds will likely produce a wind
shift or two between 22z and 02z. Other than outflow winds from
near by convection, southerly winds are expected to prevail
through Tuesday morning. Another round of isolated/scattered
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
229 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.
The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending on fuel conditions following the
recent precipitation.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.
The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.
Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.
The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending on fuel conditions following the
recent precipitation.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.
The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.
Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
A weak shortwave trof wl be moving acrs srn CO and nrn NM today and
tonight. Residual mstr and the disturbance wl combine to allow for
the development of showers and tstms. The NAM and HRRR show the
first showers/tstms developing ovr the swrn CO mtns near Noon.
Showers/tstm then develop thru the afternoon hours ovr the other mtn
areas with isold to sct coverage. Generally light flow aloft today
wl result in slow moving storms. The NAM keeps the sern plains dry
thru the afternoon, but the HRRR hints at some isold activity
developing nr the KS border in the late afternoon. High temps today
are expected to be a few degree warmer than on Sun.
Some showers/tstms may spread out ovr portions of the sern plains
this evening, but it looks like coverage would be spotty. Most, if
not all pcpn wl likely end by midnight. However then NAM does
continue some light pcpn ovr the sern corner of the state into the
late night hours, associated with the shortwave trof as it moves
thru that area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow aloft is progged across
the region, as an upper trough across the Northern Tier translates
east through the period. Models continue to indicate weak
disturbances embedded within the flow moving across the area,
although models also continue to indicate not much available
moisture to work with. At any rate, should be enough residual
moisture to support generally isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Convection
looks to be generally high based producing more wind than measurable
rainfall, as supported by inverted v sounding profiles. Warm and dry
westerly flow supports good mixing and helps to boost temperatures
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday, though MOS temperatures may
be a tad to warm. Breezy afternoon winds could lead to possible
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area,
though will have to see how recent rainfall has affected fuels
across the area. Passing Northern Tier system looks to send a weak
front across the area on Thursday, supporting slightly cooler
temperatures and slightly better chances of storms across the
eastern plains.
Friday-Sunday...Generally dry west to southwest flow aloft progged
across the area Friday with increasing southwest flow aloft Saturday
and Sunday as models continue to develop a rather strong upper low
across the Great Basin region by Sunday. With that said, should
continue to see temperatures generally above seasonal averages with
breezy afternoon west to southwest winds and chances for mainly high
based convection over and near the higher terrain through the
period. However, the ECMWF still keeps more available moisture and a
dry line across the plains, keeping better chances of diurnal storms
across eastern Colorado both Friday and Saturday. Time will tell.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS
and KCOS this aftn from 20z-01z producing gusty and erratic winds,
but chances are very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Sfc
winds may become breezy at times this aftn, with gusts to 20-25
mph out of the W-SW for KALS, and gusts to 20 mph out of the S for
KCOS. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A stationary front to our south will gradually work north into
southern Indiana on Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along
the front. This may bring a few showers to locations south of the
highway 24 corridor Monday. Otherwise mostly cloudy skies will
persist across the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
upper 50s and 60s. Monday high temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A stationary front was near the Ohio River with a large are of rain
north of the front across Illinois into Indiana and Ohio. Rain
cooled air north of the front had accentuated the thermal boundary
with afternoon temperatures only in low to mid 60s where rain and
storms were occurring from central Illinois to central Indiana.
Surface based CAPEs had risen above 3000 J/Kg per SPC meso analysis
south of the front near the Ohio River where storms should intensify
later this afternoon. The GFS was generating too much precipitation
in the northern portion of the area of rain. Thunderstorms were
limited to the far southern edge of the area of rain where the
airmass was move favorable for convection. Have removed thunder from
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance for thunder will be
when a weak wave tries to lift north along the surface boundary. It
looks like the chance for heavy rain is low, although precipitable
water values should exceed 2.0 inches over far south and southeast
areas including Marion and Lima. Widespread conviction near the Ohio
River will limit north transport of moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
The upper air flow should become west/southwest aloft later this
week and allow short wave energy to move across the area as a
longwave trof amplifies along the west CONUS. This pattern should
allow the front to lift north across the area allowing very warm and
humid conditions Wednesday through Friday. There is a good chance
for thunderstorms during this period as precipitable water values
approach or exceed 2.0 inches. Highs between 85 and 90 degrees will
render heat indices in the 90s Wednesday through Friday. Cooler and
less humid air will return this coming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Poor confidence fcst continues this pd as terminals lie well
north of active stnry fntl bndry through cntrl KY. Wk slab ascent
aloft overhead generating copious cloud cover yet cutoff fm a more
sig swd trailing mstr feed as stg convn conts ewd south of the OH
rvr. Thus as dry erly flw through the bndry lyr persists this
evening xpc vfr conds will cont to manifest.
Lt tonight/Mon am guidance still indicates a more vigorous ll mstr
feed working up invof the terminals w/cross sections indicative of
mvfr cig dvlpmnt which attm is not far away fm cntrl IL - cntrl IN
and of which may indeed bleed nwd overnight and retained prior
idea of a lwr cig grouping Mon am. Will reaccess as new 00Z model
guidance comes in ltr this evening.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A front and areas of low pressure will keep chances for rain, some
of it heavy, across central Indiana through Independence Day. After
a brief break Tuesday, rain chances return Wednesday into next
weekend for most of the area with very warm and humid air in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
An upper level wave is producing widespread rain across much of
central and eastern Illinois into the northern half of central
Indiana at the moment. Some of the storms, across southern Illinois,
had heavy rain. The wave and its associated rain will continue to
push east across central Indiana for the remainder of the afternoon.
Will continue high PoPs through the afternoon over the area.
Focus then shifts to chances for rain overnight. An area of low
pressure will move east into the area along a warm front. The front
will move a little farther north into the area. There will be some
broad forcing with decent isentropic lift and the area will be close
to the right entrance region of an upper jet. In addition, there
will be some frontogenetic forcing as well.
Moisture will continue to be plentiful with precipitable water
values near 2 inches. Thus feel heavy rain is still a threat,
especially with frontogenetical forcing in play.
However, several models have shifted south once again with the heavy
rain axis. Some take this to an extreme. For example, the high-res
short term models hardly have any rain at all across the northern
forecast area after 00Z (with support from the 12Z GFS). While
cannot rule out a quick cutoff of rain somewhere across the forecast
area, am not ready to cut back PoPs north wholesale given the
expected forcing across the area.
Thus went likely PoPs north and categorical PoPs south tonight. Even
though went categorical, cut back the highest PoPs to the far south
where better confidence exists.
Given the above will keep Flash Flood Watch as is for now, although
feel the highest threat will be in the southern part of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Focus remains on chances for rain through the period.
The front remains in the area along with another wave of low
pressure. Best forcing will remain closer to the front in the
southern and eastern forecast area. Will go likely or low
categorical PoPs there with only chance PoPs across the far
northwest. Moisture remains plentiful so the Flash Flood Watch still
looks good during the day Monday.
For Monday night, the system will be pulling off to the east, so
only went slight chance PoPs far northwest to chance PoPs elsewhere.
Gradually diminished PoPs through the night from northwest to
southeast as the system exits.
Brief ridging will build in on Tuesday keeping the area dry. An
upper wave will bring more chances for rain starting overnight
Tuesday night in the west and all areas on Wednesday. Went high
chance PoPs all areas by Wednesday afternoon given plenty of
instability and moisture to work with as the wave moves in.
Generally stayed with a blend of MOS and raw model output for
temperatures through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Model Ensembles indicate a flat upper ridge over the deep south and
a series of upper disturbances riding along the top of the ridge
across our region from Wednesday night through Friday evening.
This will result in a good chance of thunderstorms across our
region.
A weak cold front will push south across Indiana Friday night and
stall across kentucky over the weekend as weak high pressure builds
into the great lakes. The 12Z EURO is mostly dry over the
weekend...while the GFS brings a couple of weak disturbances across
southern Indiana and Ohio valley. Kept a slight chance of
thunderstorms central and south over the weekend due to model
uncertainty...while the north will be mostly dry Saturday night on.
Model Blend indicate it will be humid with slightly above normal
temperatures through Friday and a little less humid with near normal
temperatures over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 04/0000 TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 637 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A quasistationary front lies across southern IN/northern KY this
evening resulting in MVFR and occasional IFR conditions. Due to
the amount of rain and cool temperatures this evening, expect low
clouds/fog across all TAF sites for tonight. The next shortwave
trough/associated low pressure over OK will be moving towards
central and southern IN by tomorrow morning. Expect another day of
MVFR/occasional IFR/LIFR on Monday due to RA/TSRA near the
frontal boundary and ahead of the approaching low. Overcast
conditions expected through Monday evening with skies showing
some clearing for early Tuesday.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 11 PM EDT this evening through Monday
evening for INZ043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...DWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A slow moving warm front to our south will gradually work north
through Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front.
This will bring increasing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region today through Independence day. The
greatest chance for rain will be near and south of the highway 24
corridor with lesser chances to the north. It will be mostly
cloudy across the entire area through Monday evening. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s today, and the mid-
upper 70s Monday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper
50s and 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A stationary front was near the Ohio River with a large are of rain
north of the front across Illinois into Indiana and Ohio. Rain
cooled air north of the front had accentuated the thermal boundary
with afternoon temperatures only in low to mid 60s where rain and
storms were occurring from central Illinois to central Indiana.
Surface based CAPEs had risen above 3000 J/Kg per SPC meso analysis
south of the front near the Ohio River where storms should intensify
later this afternoon. The GFS was generating too much precipitation
in the northern portion of the area of rain. Thunderstorms were
limited to the far southern edge of the area of rain where the
airmass was move favorable for convection. Have removed thunder from
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance for thunder will be
when a weak wave tries to lift north along the surface boundary. It
looks like the chance for heavy rain is low, although precipitable
water values should exceed 2.0 inches over far south and southeast
areas including Marion and Lima. Widespread conviction near the Ohio
River will limit north transport of moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
The upper air flow should become west/southwest aloft later this
week and allow short wave energy to move across the area as a
longwave trof amplifies along the west CONUS. This pattern should
allow the front to lift north across the area allowing very warm and
humid conditions Wednesday through Friday. There is a good chance
for thunderstorms during this period as precipitable water values
approach or exceed 2.0 inches. Highs between 85 and 90 degrees will
render heat indices in the 90s Wednesday through Friday. Cooler and
less humid air will return this coming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Lower confidence in the forecast this afternoon as moderate to
heavy precipitation struggles to lift northward into the region.
Higher resolution models suggest that conditions will remain dry
at both TAF terminals this afternoon and evening. Discrepancies
arrive late tonight into tomorrow with the potential for rain
showers, and as to how far the ceilings will drop tonight into
tomorrow. For now kept SBN dry through the period, and have VCSH
in for FWA tomorrow afternoon. Kept things MVFR for now, but
there is potential for IFR ceilings tonight and Monday-especially
at FWA with moisture advection bringing PWATS up to 2 inches.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, and LONG TERM sections have
been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A front and areas of low pressure will keep chances for rain, some
of it heavy, across central Indiana through Independence Day. After
a brief break Tuesday, rain chances return Wednesday into next
weekend for most of the area with very warm and humid air in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
An upper level wave is producing widespread rain across much of
central and eastern Illinois into the northern half of central
Indiana at the moment. Some of the storms, across southern Illinois,
had heavy rain. The wave and its associated rain will continue to
push east across central Indiana for the remainder of the afternoon.
Will continue high PoPs through the afternoon over the area.
Focus then shifts to chances for rain overnight. An area of low
pressure will move east into the area along a warm front. The front
will move a little farther north into the area. There will be some
broad forcing with decent isentropic lift and the area will be close
to the right entrance region of an upper jet. In addition, there
will be some frontogenetic forcing as well.
Moisture will continue to be plentiful with precipitable water
values near 2 inches. Thus feel heavy rain is still a threat,
especially with frontogenetical forcing in play.
However, several models have shifted south once again with the heavy
rain axis. Some take this to an extreme. For example, the high-res
short term models hardly have any rain at all across the northern
forecast area after 00Z (with support from the 12Z GFS). While
cannot rule out a quick cutoff of rain somewhere across the forecast
area, am not ready to cut back PoPs north wholesale given the
expected forcing across the area.
Thus went likely PoPs north and categorical PoPs south tonight. Even
though went categorical, cut back the highest PoPs to the far south
where better confidence exists.
Given the above will keep Flash Flood Watch as is for now, although
feel the highest threat will be in the southern part of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Focus remains on chances for rain through the period.
The front remains in the area along with another wave of low
pressure. Best forcing will remain closer to the front in the
southern and eastern forecast area. Will go likely or low
categorical PoPs there with only chance PoPs across the far
northwest. Moisture remains plentiful so the Flash Flood Watch still
looks good during the day Monday.
For Monday night, the system will be pulling off to the east, so
only went slight chance PoPs far northwest to chance PoPs elsewhere.
Gradually diminished PoPs through the night from northwest to
southeast as the system exits.
Brief ridging will build in on Tuesday keeping the area dry. An
upper wave will bring more chances for rain starting overnight
Tuesday night in the west and all areas on Wednesday. Went high
chance PoPs all areas by Wednesday afternoon given plenty of
instability and moisture to work with as the wave moves in.
Generally stayed with a blend of MOS and raw model output for
temperatures through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Model Ensembles indicate a flat upper ridge over the deep south and
a series of upper disturbances riding along the top of the ridge
across our region from Wednesday night through Friday evening.
This will result in a good chance of thunderstorms across our
region.
A weak cold front will push south across Indiana Friday night and
stall across kentucky over the weekend as weak high pressure builds
into the great lakes. The 12Z EURO is mostly dry over the
weekend...while the GFS brings a couple of weak disturbances across
southern Indiana and Ohio valley. Kept a slight chance of
thunderstorms central and south over the weekend due to model
uncertainty...while the north will be mostly dry Saturday night on.
Model Blend indicate it will be humid with slightly above normal
temperatures through Friday and a little less humid with near normal
temperatures over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 031800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Widespread rain with ceilings and visibilities mostly IFR through
early Monday morning. There could be a lull in showers and a
few storms late this afternoon over southern and central sections
and will mention a period of MVFR conditions KIND and southward.
Scattered thunderstorms will be the rule especially central and south
from late afternoon on. Low pressure over the southern plains will
move to central Illinois by midday Monday. Model soundings indicate
a gradual improvement to MVFR by midday Monday as a warm front drifts
north across central indiana.
Winds will be east to southwest 6 to 8 knots through tonight becoming
south by midday Monday and southwest after that.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for INZ043>048-051>057-
060>065-067>072.JAS/
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
A slow moving warm front to our south will gradually work north
through Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front.
This will bring increasing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region today through Independence day. The
greatest chance for rain will be near and south of the highway 24
corridor with lesser chances to the north. It will be mostly
cloudy across the entire area through Monday evening. High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s today, and the mid-
upper 70s Monday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper
50s and 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Dilemma in the short term forecast is on pcpn chances today and
tonight and how far north pcpn shield will extend. Large scale zonal
flow extended across the country this morning with embedded short
waves and convectively enhanced meso vorts. Our area remains on the
southern fringe of stronger westerlies. Copious moisture from Gulf
of Mexico was pumping into central Conus with PWATS well over 2
inches and sfc dewpoints in the 70s. Radar mosaic showed widespread
convection from eastern Kansas through north central Missouri into
central Illinois where short waves were interacting with the
moisture feed.
Models were a bit too far north with northern edge of pcpn shield at
06z but not too far off with axis of heavier pcpn from Kansas to
Missouri. General consensus among 00z models and latest CAMs is to
take heaviest pcpn east today and especially tonight near and south
of the interstate 70 corridor. This is where best low level jet will
be focused near warm frontal boundary and greatest moisture flux.
Latest HRRR and RAP are in decent agreement bringing some lighter
pcpn into far south by mid morning into the afternoon so kept pops
in the likely category there but trended to dry in the far
north today.
As sfc wave moves along front tonight...some northward shift in
boundary could allow period of moderate rainfall to move into far
southeast counties late tonight into Monday morning. Generally
relied on consensus of models and WPC QPF for tonight. This brings
between a half and one inch of rain into our area from near Marion
to Kalida and south as warm front inches northward.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Warm front to likely move north into our southeast forecast area
Monday while sfc wave moves along boundary. This will likely keep
showers and a few thunderstorms going near the front. Confined
pops to likely category with uncertainty concerning northward
extent of front and pcpn. This wave to slowly exit the east Monday
evening but some showers may still linger into mid or late evening
over the far southeast near trailing boundary.
Drier air and weak ridge move in for Tuesday and Tuesday night but
this will be short lived as models indicating an active pattern for
the rest of week with numerous short waves riding the relatively
faster flow aloft just to our north. Several rounds of thunderstorms
look possible as these waves interact with an increasingly moist and
unstable atmosphere that builds through the week. Being on southern
periphery of the faster westerlies...we should see a dramatic
increase in low level moisture...heat and instability. Models
indicating sfc dewpoints climbing well into the 70s as
evapotranspiration from maturing corn canopy adds additional
moisture to the lower levels. Details impossible to nail down at
this time frame but signals in models suggest several MCS/s could
develop upstream and dive toward our area. Blanket mid chance pops
continue with refinement coming in later forecasts.
High temps to trend up into the middle and upper 80s by mid week.
Warmer temps possible but given amount of moisture and convective
cloud debris cannot justify going warmer at this time.
However...profiles still support warmer sfc temps if any breaks in
clouds develop for a few hours. Overnight lows to trend into the 70s
with very muggy conditions likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Lower confidence in the forecast this afternoon as moderate to
heavy precipitation struggles to lift northward into the region.
Higher resolution models suggest that conditions will remain dry
at both TAF terminals this afternoon and evening. Discrepancies
arrive late tonight into tomorrow with the potential for rain
showers, and as to how far the ceilings will drop tonight into
tomorrow. For now kept SBN dry through the period, and have VCSH
in for FWA tomorrow afternoon. Kept things MVFR for now, but
there is potential for IFR ceilings tonight and Monday-especially
at FWA with moisture advection bringing PWATS up to 2 inches.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...MCD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016
Water vapor imagery showed the shortwave that tracked over the
region early this morning situated over central and eastern Missouri
by this afternoon. As a result, much of the outlook area has been
mostly dry today, with only some isolated to scattered light showers
across portions of east central Kansas as the warm front remains
stationary just south of the forecast area. Widespread stratus
blanketed the region today, and this insolation resulted in
temperatures fluctuating very little today with afternoon highs only
reaching into the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s from north to south.
Models show the surface high pressure currently centered near the
Great Lakes region sliding southward into the area overnight into
Monday morning. Models show the stratus deck remaining in place
overnight, so this cloud cover should keep low temperatures in the
low/mid 60s. The main concern for overnight is for this stratus deck
to lower further overnight as a result of the approaching surface
high and the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer. Several
short-range models are suggesting that the low ceilings that are
already in place will only lower further, resulting in reduced
visibilities and areas of fog developing from around midnight
through around sunrise Monday morning. As a result, have continued
with the mention of areas of fog for the entire outlook area
overnight. There is some uncertainty with just how low visibilities
will drop, but some guidance suggests that visibilities will be low
enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. However, will allow future
shifts to further evaluate this potential.
While visibilities should improve some by mid morning, the low
stratus deck may persist through the morning hours and should
gradually scatter out some during the afternoon, especially across
central Kansas. As a result, temperatures may be slow to rise during
the morning, but should reach into the low/mid 80s east to mid/upper
80s west during the afternoon across the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016
Monday night through Wednesday, A minor shortwave trough embedded
within the subtropical branch of the the upper level jet will move
from southwest KS and the TX PNHDL, east across KS and northern OK
into southwest MO and northwest AR Tuesday night into Wednesday.
As a lee surface trough deepens through the day Tuesday, southerly
low-level winds will advect deeper moisture northward across the
CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across west central KS
Tuesday afternoon, along the surface trough/dryline and move east
across the CWA Tuesday night. The western counties may see isolated
thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon hours of Tuesday
as weak ascent spreads east across north central and central KS
during peak heating. The thunderstorms that develop across west
central KS may be strong to severe, since MLCAPES will increase to
around 3,000 J/KG, though the 0-6KM effective shear will only be
around 25 KTS. Some of these strong or possibly severe thunderstorms
may move into west central KS during the early and mid evening hours
of Tuesday. The storms should weaken as they move east across
northeast and east central KS over night.
The showers and thunderstorms will move east of the area by 12Z WED.
Skies will clear from west to east across the CWA during the mid to
late morning hours of Wednesday. Expect mostly sunny skies during
the afternoon hours of Wednesday.
Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon will be hot with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Maximum afternoon heat indices will range from 102
to 109 degrees. A heat advisory will most likely be needed for
central, northeast and east central KS both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon.
For Wednesday night through Sunday, there looks to be scattered
precipitation chances for the entire period. This is due to quasi
zonal flow over the CONUS with multiple shortwaves transversing over
the area through the end of the week and weekend. As for
temperatures, Thursday looks to be the hottest day with high
temperatures near the mid 90s. Dewpoints near the mid 70s are
forecast for very eastern Kansas making heat indicies around 105
degrees possible on this day. The rest of the period will see
high temperatures in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016
IFR conditions are expected to continue into the mid-afternoon
hours at all terminals. BL heating/mixing should allow CIGS to
briefly lift to MVFR later this afternoon. IFR CIGS and VSBY are
introduced at 07Z at terminals as plentiful BL moisture should
allow stratus to build down as fog. Short-term guidance is
beginning to hint at the possibility of even lower VSBY near dawn
tomorrow morning, but due to low confidence will defer to the next
outlook for re-evaluation. Fog is expected to lift by 15Z
tomorrow morning back to an IFR stratus deck through midday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan/Heller
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough
beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to
move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease.
Temperatures are in the 70s/80s across the region with variable
winds at less than 10 mph.
The latest model runs of the NAM and HRRR have chances for PoPs this
afternoon over the far southwestern portions (possibly into the
northwestern portions) of the region as a weak shortwave moves over
the CWA. CAPES will get to around 1500 J/kg but bulk shear is not
impressive. The remainder of the night is expected to be dry.
Around midnight MDT, fog is expected to form over areas along and
east of Hwy 83. The SREF and NAM models have the fog lasting until
around 13/14Z Monday morning.
A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting
trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s.
There are slight chances for precipitation in the far western
portion of the region in the late afternoon as an upper level
shortwave moves towards the region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
For KGLD, MVFR conditions will occur 18Z to 19Z. Then clouds will
start to move east of the area as the low pressure moves east. For
the remainder of the TAF period VFR conditions will prevail. High
pressure will move into the region and bring with it clearing
skies.
For KMCK, MVFR conditions will occur 18Z to 21Z until clouds
start to decrease over the region as the low pressure begins to
move east. VFR conditions will prevail after that until 06Z.
Starting at 06Z until 09Z MVFR conditions will return (with 4SM
visibilities) as fog begins to move into the area. Visibilities
will steadily decrease through the night as fog becomes thicker,
bringing with it IFR conditions as visibilities drop below 3SM. At
15Z visibilities will increase to 4SM but IFR conditions will
continue for the remainder of the TAF period due to low ceilings.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...CLT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
401 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016
A weak trough passing over northeast UT and northwest CO will keep
isolate rain showers going until about 8 am then these will push
east of the area. The flat ridge that has been over the area and
southwest U.S. will slide east today through Wednesday as another
weak front drags across the northern and central rockies. Gradient
winds will increase today and more so on Wednesday. It appears
that winds will fall just short of criteria today, but reaching
red flag criteria is more probable on Wednesday. Have issued a
fire weather watch for northwest CO Wed. afternoon and early
evening. See fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures will continue to rise today, but lose a degree or two
over northern areas from more cloud cover associated with the
front.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistent long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday evening into Thursday...a surface front will move south
into northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds
in advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites in eastern UT and
western CO for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north of I-70 will gradually decrease and
move east this morning. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop again after 18z, mainly in NW CO north of
I-70. These should not negatively impact any of the taf sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016
...Fire Weather Watch for NW Colorado for strong winds, low
humidity and dry fuels in fire zones 200 and 202...
A trough will pass north of the area today causing southwest winds
to increase a bit today across much of the area and more so on
Wednesday. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer each day with
dry conditions continuing. Red Flag conditions will be spotty and
short-lived this afternoon, but have a strong possibility of being
more widespread across NW Colorado Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for northwest Colorado
for Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016
A weak shortwave trof wl move out of the sern CO plains early this
morning, and light showers wl end. Another shortwave trof wl move
acrs srn WY and nrn CO thru the day. This system is expected to
help kick off some showers and tstms acrs nrn portions of the
forecast area. The southern portions of the forecast area should see
little chance for pcpn today. Temps today wl be around 5 degrees
above average acrs the sern plains, with readings in the 90s to
around 100. The high valleys should see high temps around average,
with readings in the 80s.
The shortwave trof is expected to exit the area before midnight,
with showers/tstms ending. Overnight lows should mostly be a little
above average.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016
Wednesday-Thursday...Weak to moderate westerly flow aloft continues
across the region, as an upper trough across the Northern Tier
translates east through Thursday night. Models continue to indicate
weak disturbances embedded within the flow moving across the area,
although there is not much available moisture within the dry
westerly flow to work with. At any rate, should be enough residual
moisture to support generally isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Convection
looks to be high based producing more wind than measurable rainfall,
as supported by inverted v sounding profiles. Warm and dry westerly
flow supports good mixing and helps to boost temperatures across the
area Wednesday with only slightly cooler temperatures expected on
Thursday, as models are now a tad slower with the passing northern
systems weak front moving across the plains late Thursday afternoon
and evening. Deep mixing to AOA H5 supports breezy afternoon winds
and will lead to increased fire danger, though will have to see how
recent rainfall has affected fuels across the area.
Friday-Saturday...Weak west to southwest flow aloft on Friday
becomes more southwest and slowly increases through the day
Saturday, as a deep upper trough moves onshore across the Pac NW.
Low level moisture increases across the eastern plains with upslope
flow behind the passing front supporting better chances of diurnal
deep moist convection both Friday and Saturday across the eastern
mts and plains, with high based storms still possible across the
rest of the mountains and high valleys. Temperatures near to
slightly above seasonal averages can be expected, with the coolest
day on Friday.
Sunday-Monday...Moderate southwest flow aloft on Sunday becomes more
westerly Monday as the Pac NW systems translates east across the
Northern Tier. Dry west to southwest flow aloft helps to mix out the
atmosphere once again, with breezy west to southwest winds helping
to keep temperatures bove seasonal averages. Models continue to
indicate monsoonal moisture to be well south of the area, though
cant rule out high based convection over and near the higher terrain
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016
VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites thru the
next 24 hrs. KCOS could see tstms move into the vicinity this
afternoon. breezy westerly winds are expected at KALS in the
afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Have had to reverse course, as the high res models turned
out to be correct and ISOLD storms have developed along an
outflow boundary moving east across the SE Plains. ISOLD storms
should continue over the next few hours and gradually diminish
as forcing weakens tonight. Could see an ISOLD shower or storm
linger over the far SE Plains tonight. Rose
UPDATE Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. West winds will
increase over the area on Tuesday which will bring drying
conditions to the region. This will limit thunderstorm chances to
mainly mountain areas. KCOS could see an isolated thunderstorm
during the late afternoon and evening..but coverage looks too
limited to warrant inclusion in the TAF at this point. -KT
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1107 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly north of I-70
will gradually decrease after midnight. Then scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly
in NW CO north of I-70. VFR conditions are also expected at all
TAF sites in eastern UT and western CO through at least Tuesday
evening.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...JRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1107 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly north of I-70
will gradually decrease after midnight. Then scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly
in NW CO north of I-70. VFR conditions are also expected at all
TAF sites in eastern UT and western CO through at least Tuesday
evening.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...JRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Have had to reverse course, as the high res models turned
out to be correct and ISOLD storms have developed along an
outflow boundary moving east across the SE Plains. ISOLD storms
should continue over the next few hours and gradually diminish
as forcing weakens tonight. Could see an ISOLD shower or storm
linger over the far SE Plains tonight. Rose
UPDATE Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Have had to reverse course, as the high res models turned
out to be correct and ISOLD storms have developed along an
outflow boundary moving east across the SE Plains. ISOLD storms
should continue over the next few hours and gradually diminish
as forcing weakens tonight. Could see an ISOLD shower or storm
linger over the far SE Plains tonight. Rose
UPDATE Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
851 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Still a bunch of high based showers with multiple outflow
boundaries over the Urban corridor and plains. Radar data showing
some isolated higher gusts up to 40kt with some of these showers.
Have extended pops for a few more hours as colliding boundaries
will continue to generate showers further into the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.
Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 840 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Terminals will be subject to several outflow boundaries at least
through 05z with erratic and gusty winds possible from 20-40kt.
Probably a similar day on Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
459 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly across the higher
terrain with some drift into adjacent valleys. KTEX and KASE stand
the best chance of seeing conditions below ILS breakpoints in
brief moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds to 20 mph are also
possible in vicinity of any showers. Otherwise, most TAF sites
should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Most convection will
end shortly after 03Z. Isolated showers will continue across
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado mainly north of I-70 through
the early morning hours with KVEL possibly seeing a brief light
shower. Much drier conditions work in from the west Tuesday with
any afternoon convection limited to the northern Colorado
mountains and adjacent valleys...including KHDN and KSBS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
459 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly across the higher
terrain with some drift into adjacent valleys. KTEX and KASE stand
the best chance of seeing conditions below ILS breakpoints in
brief moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds to 20 mph are also
possible in vicinity of any showers. Otherwise, most TAF sites
should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Most convection will
end shortly after 03Z. Isolated showers will continue across
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado mainly north of I-70 through
the early morning hours with KVEL possibly seeing a brief light
shower. Much drier conditions work in from the west Tuesday with
any afternoon convection limited to the northern Colorado
mountains and adjacent valleys...including KHDN and KSBS.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.
Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.
Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.
Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.
Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Isolated thunderstorms will be around through 02z. Biggest threat
will be outflow winds with gusts to 40 knots possible. Just a
20-30 percent chance that the Denver airports will see a
thunderstorm, but gusty outflow winds will likely produce a wind
shift or two between 22z and 02z. Other than outflow winds from
near by convection, southerly winds are expected to prevail
through Tuesday morning. Another round of isolated/scattered
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.
Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Isolated thunderstorms will be around through 02z. Biggest threat
will be outflow winds with gusts to 40 knots possible. Just a
20-30 percent chance that the Denver airports will see a
thunderstorm, but gusty outflow winds will likely produce a wind
shift or two between 22z and 02z. Other than outflow winds from
near by convection, southerly winds are expected to prevail
through Tuesday morning. Another round of isolated/scattered
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
229 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.
The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.
Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.
The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending on fuel conditions following the
recent precipitation.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.
The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.
Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.
The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending on fuel conditions following the
recent precipitation.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016
Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.
The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.
Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
A weak shortwave trof wl be moving acrs srn CO and nrn NM today and
tonight. Residual mstr and the disturbance wl combine to allow for
the development of showers and tstms. The NAM and HRRR show the
first showers/tstms developing ovr the swrn CO mtns near Noon.
Showers/tstm then develop thru the afternoon hours ovr the other mtn
areas with isold to sct coverage. Generally light flow aloft today
wl result in slow moving storms. The NAM keeps the sern plains dry
thru the afternoon, but the HRRR hints at some isold activity
developing nr the KS border in the late afternoon. High temps today
are expected to be a few degree warmer than on Sun.
Some showers/tstms may spread out ovr portions of the sern plains
this evening, but it looks like coverage would be spotty. Most, if
not all pcpn wl likely end by midnight. However then NAM does
continue some light pcpn ovr the sern corner of the state into the
late night hours, associated with the shortwave trof as it moves
thru that area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
Tuesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow aloft is progged across
the region, as an upper trough across the Northern Tier translates
east through the period. Models continue to indicate weak
disturbances embedded within the flow moving across the area,
although models also continue to indicate not much available
moisture to work with. At any rate, should be enough residual
moisture to support generally isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Convection
looks to be generally high based producing more wind than measurable
rainfall, as supported by inverted v sounding profiles. Warm and dry
westerly flow supports good mixing and helps to boost temperatures
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday, though MOS temperatures may
be a tad to warm. Breezy afternoon winds could lead to possible
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area,
though will have to see how recent rainfall has affected fuels
across the area. Passing Northern Tier system looks to send a weak
front across the area on Thursday, supporting slightly cooler
temperatures and slightly better chances of storms across the
eastern plains.
Friday-Sunday...Generally dry west to southwest flow aloft progged
across the area Friday with increasing southwest flow aloft Saturday
and Sunday as models continue to develop a rather strong upper low
across the Great Basin region by Sunday. With that said, should
continue to see temperatures generally above seasonal averages with
breezy afternoon west to southwest winds and chances for mainly high
based convection over and near the higher terrain through the
period. However, the ECMWF still keeps more available moisture and a
dry line across the plains, keeping better chances of diurnal storms
across eastern Colorado both Friday and Saturday. Time will tell.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016
VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS
and KCOS this aftn from 20z-01z producing gusty and erratic winds,
but chances are very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Sfc
winds may become breezy at times this aftn, with gusts to 20-25
mph out of the W-SW for KALS, and gusts to 20 mph out of the S for
KCOS. Moore
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
904 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably dry air will continue to filter into the region as the
pattern will transition away from a typical summer monsoon
appearance. Temperatures will remain in a near normal range
throughout the week under mostly clear skies. Only a modest chance
of showers will exist through southeast and eastern Arizona during
the midweek period, with virtually no chance of rain at lower
elevations from central Arizona through southern California.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the larger circulation features over western North America
and northeast Pacific include troughing centered over the Canadian
Rockies (extending well into the NW CONUS), a large anticyclone west
of the trough, and a very broad region of high pressure with an axis
extending from west of Baja Mexico to east of Florida (containing
multiple anticyclonic circulations). With troughing to the northwest
and the axis of high pressure just to the south, our forecast area is
largely within southwesterly flow aloft. There is a weak disturbance
within that southwesterly flow which is producing some altocumulus.
However, the 12Z soundings show that this disturbance will not be
able to do much of anything else given how warm aloft we are and the
drying that has taken place in the lower levels. Thus, we will have
another very warm day with storm activity limited to areas well
outside of our territory (near the New Mexico border). For Wed and
Thu, the models depict the westerlies weakening slightly along with a
shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within the high pressure
region over/near us. This allows for a temporary incursion of
deep moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Made some subtle upward adjustments
to the temperatures for today otherwise, forecasts in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 145 am MST/PDT
High pressure remains situated over northern Chihuahua early this
morning while several shortwaves continue to carve out longwave
troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration will
only reinforce southwest/westerly flow throughout the SW Conus with
an overall anti- cyclonic subsident regime. Boundary layer moisture
also continues to be eroded with 00Z KPSR sounding data sampling an
anemic 6 g/kg sfc-H7 mixing ratio, while KTWC data was only slightly
more supportive for convective development at 8 g/kg. However,
unusually warm temperatures aloft have been amplifying with H5
readings spiking at -4C and falling near the climatological 90th
percentile capping any deep convection.
This general pattern will essentially hold for the entire week
keeping all but the southeast portions of Arizona devoid of
thunderstorms (much less for all but afternoon fair weather mountain
cumulus). The operational GFS still maintains a forecast of more
robust Sonoran outflow advecting marginally better moisture profiles
northward towards Pinal and Gila counties Wednesday and Thursday.
However, trends in this operational run have definitely been towards
a lower magnitude and less influential moisture push with only 8
g/kg materializing in the sfc-H7 layer. Thus, other than a brief
shower/virga over far southeast Gila County, saw no justifiable
reason to include any pops through the remainder of the forecast
area into the weekend.
One positive of this scenario is unlike most mid-monsoon season
pattern breakdowns, this convectively inactive period will feature
H5 heights depressed near 592dm and afternoon H8 temperatures only
hovering between +25C and +29C. Typically, breaks in thunderstorm
activity in July would result in near record highs, but model output
emphatically supports temperatures near to only slightly above
average throughout the week. In fact, spread among all post
processed raw and numerical guidance persists in an extremely narrow
range yielding excellent forecast confidence.
Convection will continue to remain thoroughly absent from the
forecast area well into next week as larger negative height
anomalies develop over the Pacific Northwest. This will exacerbate
westerly flow through the intermountain west and SW Conus further
eliminating any sense of quality boundary layer moisture across the
forecast area. There is strong evidence that sfc dewpoints through
the weekend and into early next week fall into the 30s with total
column Pwats descending towards 0.50 inches (climatologically near
the 10th percentile for early/mid July). Thus, instead of entering
deeper into monsoon flow of mid July, the atmosphere is actually
regressing more towards an early June dry pattern. Though ensemble
spread begins to grow towards the middle of next week, it may very
well be until the end of next week at the earliest before sufficient
moisture can return north and storm chances reenter the forecast
picture.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry westerly flow aloft with only few to sct high clouds at all area
terminals. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal trends, with some
afternoon gustiness likely, especially at KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
Dry southwesterly flow aloft will be in place through early next
week. Minimum humidity values will be at or below 10% at most lower
desert locations. Overnight recovery will be only fair. Surface
winds will favor south-southwesterly in the afternoon and evening
with gusts in the teens. Overall, the pattern is more characteristic
of June rather than July.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A relatively dry air mass with westerly flow aloft
will continue to limit thunderstorm coverage today. More moisture
will increase thunderstorm chances the second half of the week.
Another drier and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
depicted clear skies across much of southeast Arizona at this time.
A few mid-level clouds were noted northwest of Tucson in the
vicinity of Picacho Peak, and near the International border adjacent
Cochise County. Dewpoints at lower elevations valid 15Z ranged from
the 50s-lower 60s, and these temps were nearly identical to 24 hours
ago. Surface temps valid 15Z were also essentially unchanged versus
this time Monday.
05/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 1.11 inches
increased only 0.04 inch versus 24 hours ago. The column was nearly
saturated around 600 mb but was quite dry in the surface-700 mb
layer and above 500 mb. 05/12Z upper air plots depicted a 500 mb
ridge axis that extended from west of northern Baja California
eastward to Florida. Meanwhile, a belt of westerlies encompassed the
northern CONUS with a 559 dm low centered over British Columbia.
Light wly/swly flow aloft prevailed across southeast Arizona.
The 12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM was similar to the HRRR in depicting the
initial development for showers/tstms late this morning or early
this afternoon to occur near the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern
Cochise County, or perhaps further west near the Huachuca Mountains
in southwestern Cochise County. The bulk of showers/tstms later this
afternoon and evening is progged to occur generally across the New
Mexico bootheel, but some precip echoes were progged to be further
west into about the southeast one quarter of Cochise County.
Based on these solutions, see no reason to tamper with the official
forecast that depicts isolated showers/tstms this afternoon/evening
to occur from near Nogales eastward to the Chiricahua Mountains, or
generally near the International border adjacent eastern Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere, with high
temps this afternoon virtually identical to temps achieved Monday
afternoon.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening mainly near
the International border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south
few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening followed
by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Surface wind this afternoon will generally be wly
at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be
variable in direction at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Enough moisture will linger for thunderstorms near
the International border again today, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Another brief push of moisture will bring increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from near Tucson south and east Wednesday
into Friday. Drying will then occur once again this weekend. 20-ft
winds will generally favor diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with
some enhancement in areas where afternoon westerly/northwesterly
flow is the norm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /150 AM MST/...Water vapor imagery and 05/00Z upper-
air plots show a sprawling ridge that extends generally west to east
from the central Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico and into west
Texas. This has resulted in a continuation of a dry westerly flow
aloft across the desert southwest as evidenced on the 05/00Z KTWC
sounding. The PW on the sounding was up a bit from 12 to 24 hours
ago, with a value of 1.28 inches, which was about two-tenths of an
inch greater. Both the CIRA LPW Total and the U of A GPS PW show a
value as of 06Z of just a tad over an inch.
Models indicate that the ridge to our south will shift eastward
through early Wednesday to a position over the southern plains with
the ridge axis extending westward across northern Mexico. As this
shift occurs, return flow on the western flank of the ridge will
allow moisture to increase during the middle to latter part of the
week. Therefore, expect thunderstorm chances to increase mainly
Wednesday into Thursday, with the focus for thunderstorms being from
around Nogales to Douglas, with the activity spreading a bit farther
north Thursday. For now it looks like the farthest northwestern
extent of the storms will be around the Tucson area, with very
little threat west and north of the city. Even so, it only looks
like isolated coverage for the Tucson metro. However, this could
change depending on what subsequent model runs indicate, so stay
tuned.
Confidence is not high at this point with the GFS being the most
robust model in wanting to bring in the threat for storms, whereas
the NAM and ECMWF, not so much. Just one example, looking at MOS POP
numbers for Tucson, the NAM shows POPS in the single digits for
Wednesday through Thursday, whereas the GFS has 12-hour POPS of 14,
39 and 21 percent for Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday,
respectively. ECMWF is much closer to the NAM numbers. So, sorta
went with a blend, but not yet close to the GFS values, especially
for Wednesday night. With subsequent model runs, the forecast may
change between now and the middle to latter part of the week.
Confidence is moderate to high at this point that areas along the
international border will see at least scattered convection.
By the weekend a low pressure system will begin to affect the
Pacific northwest as the ridge becomes reestablished to our south
again, resulting in a drying trend for the weekend and into early
next week.
For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs above
normal today and then near normal Wednesday through Friday before
becoming around 2 to 4 degs above normal again for the weekend and
early next week. Low temps will range from 4 to 6 degs above normal
Wednesday morning, then around 2 to 4 degs above normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
08Z water vapor imagery shows the mean westerlies remain to the
north with a closed upper low over British Columbia and a wave
moving through MT. There also appears to be an upper wave moving
into southwest KS that is helping fire convection over the TX
panhandle. At the surface, moist air with dewpoints in the 70s
stretched north through much of central and eastern KS with some obs
sites in central KS show a dewpoint temp near 75. A general trough
of low pressure extended from the southern high plains north through
central NEB and delineated the moist air to the east from the
dryer air over the high plains.
For today and tonight, the general consensus is that the warm air
advecting over the forecast area now is likely to keep the boundary
layer capped until maybe late in the day during peak heating. Then
storms that form out west should congeal into a convective system
and track east. The upper wave over southwest KS poses a wrench in
that it may provide enough forcing along the surface trough for
convection to develop earlier in the day and more across central KS.
This may bring a potential for storms into north central KS a little
sooner in the day rather than waiting for storms to form an MCS
further northwest and move into the area. Unfortunately there is not
a lot of confidence in thunderstorm coverage. The NAM, which has
been consistent in diving an MCS across the forecast area tonight
has little support from the ARW and NMM which tend to keep
convection more isolated through the night. Because there is not a
strong surface feature or convergence to focus convective initiation
over KS and upper flow is relatively week resulting in 0-6km shear
of about 20KT, it is unclear where storms may track this afternoon
and tonight. The forecast stays a little more with the model
consensus of storms to move in from NEB this evening and overnight,
and the higher POPs are across northern KS where there is some
consistent signal for an MCS. There should be no problem from an
instability perspective for strong or severe storms to develop. But
the weak shear is expected to favor a MCS. This would suggest a
damaging wind and hail risk with the storms.
Will expand the heat advisory to include all of the counties in the
forecast area. There seems to be a balancing act this afternoon
regarding temps with how deep the boundary layer mixes and how low
the dewpoints may drop. I suspect eastern KS is as close to a slam
dunk for the heat advisory as there can be with temps in the mid 90s
and dewpoints holding in the lower and middle 70s. If north central
KS mixes as deep as some of the forecast soundings show, highs are
likely to hit triple digits. However models show surface and 850
winds backing during the afternoon to a more southerly direction
suggesting the forecast soundings may be over doing the mixing and
lower dewpoints. In any case, think heat indicates will be close to
105 for Ottawa, Cloud and Republic counties and will put them in the
advisory. As for temps, have a similar forecast to the previous with
mid 90s in eastern KS to near 100 for the Abilene area. Lows tonight
will be completely dependent on where any MCS tracks. Because of
this I`ve stayed close to the model blend which is kind of a middle
of the road forecast. If there are no thunderstorms, lows are
probably going to be more mild across north central KS. If the MCS
moves through the center of the forecast area, lows could be
several degrees cooler than the forecast has.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
For the mid range forecast beginning Wednesday day time frame, it is
still unclear exactly how much influence overnight convection may
have on overall temps and dewpoints. Therefore, have not gone with
issuing a heat advisory for Wednesday at this time and will have to
hold off on that just a bit longer. Expecting that right now we
still warm up with heat indices just below or perhaps just reaching
into criteria but confidence isn`t high enough at this time to
determine where if any outflow boundaries exist and complicate the
daytime mixing. It is possible that some localized higher temps
will be reached over the area and dewpoints are still high enough
to have a few readings into the lower 100s heat index wise.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, do expect that a nocturnal MCS
will form and over the western portions of the Northern Plains as
lead shortwaves lift out ahead of a deeper Pacific trough
advecting into the Northern Rockies. Trends with synoptic models
tend to be suggesting that perhaps the best 850mb theta-e moisture
may reside off into the northern portions of the forecast area
into Nebraska. This along with better deep layer shear would help
maintain any MCS incoming into the region and therefore have kept
slight chance POPs mainly north and along I-70. Into the day and
afternoon on Thursday, as the upper trough advects across the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a weak cold front should
be pushed into the forecast area. Some sounding profiles suggest
that a strong cap will remain in place, but if convergence is
strong enough to degrade the cap, likely along with heating, then
there could be storms form mainly in the afternoon and some could
be severe as effective shear increases to the order of 35-40kts.
Most likely threats would be hail around 1 inch and some strong
gusty winds. Low confidence in how this will actually play out at
this point. Temps again on Thursday could reach into the advisory
range prior to any storm development.
Into the weekend, the previously mentioned cold front stalls out
over central and southern KS and becomes the focus for periods of
showers and thunderstorm chances for the weekend and into the
upcoming week as weak isentropic ascent on the 310K to 315K surface
sets up into the region on the weekend. Mean Westerly flow aloft
remains over the northern tier CONUS, so expecting generally
weaker shear profiles for any storms that do occur. Generally
expect heights to rise again with temps to begin climbing back to
near advisory range by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
VFR conditions are likely to prevail into the evening. The main
question is whether a capping inversion will prevent diurnal
convection during the heat of the day. The HRRR has been showing
the possibility for ISOLD storms. Most other guidance including
the RAP and NAM fail to develop storms near the terminals during
the afternoon. Therefore have no mention of TS until the overnight
hours when an MCS could move across the region. At this point,
confidence in where storms will track is low, so have only
included a PROB30 to reflect the chances in the forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail mainly east to south of Tucson through
Friday. A few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and
far southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions area-wide
Monday into next Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be quite close to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly
near the international border south-to-southeast of Tucson this
evening. These showers/tstms will end by midnight followed by clear
skies or mostly clear skies late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Some increase in showers/tstms is expected Wednesday into Friday,
with the favored period during the afternoon/evening hours. Have
noted that the GFS continued to be fairly more robust to markedly
more robust regarding precip chances versus the NAM/ECMWF/CMC
solutions. For this forecast package, made only minor adjustments to
the inherited gridded data PoP fields. Thus, isolated to scattered
showers/tstms from Tucson eastward/southward Wednesday thru Friday
with dry conditions across western/central Pima County and south-
central Pinal County. Have maintained a slight chance of showers/
tstms Saturday across the White Mountains and far southeastern
sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were nearly identical with depicting a
closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A tighter mid-
level gradient should translate into stronger wly flow aloft, and
shunt deeper moisture well east of this forecast area. Although the
upper flow will weaken considerably by next Tuesday as high pressure
aloft builds over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Thus, have continued with precip-free conditions area-wide Sunday
into next Tuesday. Expect only very minor daily temp changes, and
high temps will generally be within a couple of degs or so of normal
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/00Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this evening mainly near the
international border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs. Somewhat greater
coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA will then occur Wednesday afternoon, with
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly from KTUS vicinity east and
south to the New Mexico/International borders.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south,
a few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening
followed by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Scattered to broken clouds at 10k-15k
ft msl Wednesday afternoon. Surface wind this evening and
Wednesday afternoon will generally be wly at 10-15 kts with gusts to
20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be variable in direction at less
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur from Tucson eastward and southward Wednesday through Friday. A
few thunderstorms may occur across the White Mountains and far
southeastern sections Saturday, then dry conditions will prevail
area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Francis
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...West to southwest flow across the region will bring
warm and mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White
Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry weather with near average early July
temperatures will persist through the 7 day forecast period. A
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will bring elevated
southwest winds to the area Wednesday. Wind speeds will be
slightly higher Wednesday than today, with gusts approaching 35
mph mainly from Flagstaff north. These increased winds combined
with low afternoon humidity will cause near critical fire weather
conditions generally from the I-40 corridor north.
Dry west to southwest flow continues through the week with the
only chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the White Mountains
where enough moisture creeps in from the south.
The active pattern continues to our north as an unseasonably cold
low pressure system moves through the northwestern U.S. For
Arizona, this will continue to bring dry and breezy weather with
perhaps another notable increase in winds on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over the next 24 hrs. Breezy SW winds will diminish after sunset
tonight and redevelop aft 16Z Wed. Wind gusts of 30-35 kts
expected Wed afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry west to southwest flow will continue.
The only chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be over the White
Mountains region Thursday. An increase in southwest winds combined
with low humidity on Wednesday will result in near critical fire
weather conditions generally from Flagstaff north.
.Friday through Sunday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will
continue across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry weather with
breezy afternoons and near average temperatures can be expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the Monsoon pattern will continue into next week. While
there will be a temporary incursion of moisture into portions of
Arizona next week Wednesday and Thursday, storm chances will be
limited to southeast Arizona. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with
near, to slightly above, normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday...
A weak disturbance moving across AZ is producing some altocumulus
plus there is some leftover lower level moisture over the higher
terrain of AZ which has led to some flat cumulus development. Too
stable and too little moisture for our area to see storms today.
Expect they will be confined near the New Mexico border. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the models depict the westerlies weakening
slightly along with a shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within
the broad subtropical high pressure region covering the southern
CONUS/Mexico/Caribbean. This allows for a temporary incursion of deep
moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Hurricane Blas will be a non-factor.
There will be some modest cooling...down to near normal/avg readings.
Friday through Tuesday...
The westerlies strengthen over the western states late in the week
suppressing the axis of high pressure to our south . In the process,
dry advection overspreads the region. This dry pattern stays in
place through Tuesday. A proviso is that the deep moisture never goes
exceedingly far away and remains over northwest Mexico. Thus if the
intrusion of the westerlies winds up not being that strong and if
convection over Sonora is more robust,then we may have more moisture
to work with than anticipated. However, this scenario is really more
relevant for southeast AZ as opposed to our forecast area. An upside
to the influence of the westerlies is that temperatures are not
looking to get out of hand despite the dry air.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will favor a normal diurnal sequence with occasional wind gusts
of 15 to 20 kts. through the early evening--although more frequent
wind gusts are likely for the southeast California terminals.
Otherwise skies will remain mostly clear with few to sct mid and
high clouds throughout the period.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain seasonably hot
high temperatures through Tuesday along with little to no chance of
rain. Minimum humidities will show little change and favor the 7 to
12 percent range. Gusty southwest and upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 20 mph can be expected each afternoon, although higher gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph are in store for Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
recoveries will remain fair.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
911 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring warm and
mostly dry conditions through the week with only a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains.
&&
.UPDATE...Overall the forecast is in good shape, with no updates
planned this morning. Dry southwest flow remains in control with
breezes expected each afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /349 AM MST/...A drying west-southwesterly flow will
persist over the next several days across northern Arizona. This
will lead to fair and generally dry, but somewhat breezy, weather
for much of the coming week. Near normal temperatures are also
anticipated. While intermittent pushes of moisture may produce a
slight chance for thunderstorms over far eastern Arizona, the
pattern looks typical for an extended monsoonal break through the 7-
day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hrs, with breezy south to southwest winds each afternoon. A
slight chance of an afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA over the White Mtns
southeast of KSOW remains possible. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier southwesterly flow regime will limit any
chance for a shower or storm to the White Mountains through
Wednesday. Breezy afternoon winds will develop, with the highest
wind speeds Wednesday as a trough passes north of the state.
Thursday through Saturday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...dry
weather with breezy afternoons expected.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NWS Las Vegas
PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
904 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably dry air will continue to filter into the region as the
pattern will transition away from a typical summer monsoon
appearance. Temperatures will remain in a near normal range
throughout the week under mostly clear skies. Only a modest chance
of showers will exist through southeast and eastern Arizona during
the midweek period, with virtually no chance of rain at lower
elevations from central Arizona through southern California.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the larger circulation features over western North America
and northeast Pacific include troughing centered over the Canadian
Rockies (extending well into the NW CONUS), a large anticyclone west
of the trough, and a very broad region of high pressure with an axis
extending from west of Baja Mexico to east of Florida (containing
multiple anticyclonic circulations). With troughing to the northwest
and the axis of high pressure just to the south, our forecast area is
largely within southwesterly flow aloft. There is a weak disturbance
within that southwesterly flow which is producing some altocumulus.
However, the 12Z soundings show that this disturbance will not be
able to do much of anything else given how warm aloft we are and the
drying that has taken place in the lower levels. Thus, we will have
another very warm day with storm activity limited to areas well
outside of our territory (near the New Mexico border). For Wed and
Thu, the models depict the westerlies weakening slightly along with a
shuffling of the anticyclonic centers within the high pressure
region over/near us. This allows for a temporary incursion of
deep moisture into southeast AZ with only very slight storm chances
brushing our easternmost areas. Made some subtle upward adjustments
to the temperatures for today otherwise, forecasts in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 145 am MST/PDT
High pressure remains situated over northern Chihuahua early this
morning while several shortwaves continue to carve out longwave
troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration will
only reinforce southwest/westerly flow throughout the SW Conus with
an overall anti- cyclonic subsident regime. Boundary layer moisture
also continues to be eroded with 00Z KPSR sounding data sampling an
anemic 6 g/kg sfc-H7 mixing ratio, while KTWC data was only slightly
more supportive for convective development at 8 g/kg. However,
unusually warm temperatures aloft have been amplifying with H5
readings spiking at -4C and falling near the climatological 90th
percentile capping any deep convection.
This general pattern will essentially hold for the entire week
keeping all but the southeast portions of Arizona devoid of
thunderstorms (much less for all but afternoon fair weather mountain
cumulus). The operational GFS still maintains a forecast of more
robust Sonoran outflow advecting marginally better moisture profiles
northward towards Pinal and Gila counties Wednesday and Thursday.
However, trends in this operational run have definitely been towards
a lower magnitude and less influential moisture push with only 8
g/kg materializing in the sfc-H7 layer. Thus, other than a brief
shower/virga over far southeast Gila County, saw no justifiable
reason to include any pops through the remainder of the forecast
area into the weekend.
One positive of this scenario is unlike most mid-monsoon season
pattern breakdowns, this convectively inactive period will feature
H5 heights depressed near 592dm and afternoon H8 temperatures only
hovering between +25C and +29C. Typically, breaks in thunderstorm
activity in July would result in near record highs, but model output
emphatically supports temperatures near to only slightly above
average throughout the week. In fact, spread among all post
processed raw and numerical guidance persists in an extremely narrow
range yielding excellent forecast confidence.
Convection will continue to remain thoroughly absent from the
forecast area well into next week as larger negative height
anomalies develop over the Pacific Northwest. This will exacerbate
westerly flow through the intermountain west and SW Conus further
eliminating any sense of quality boundary layer moisture across the
forecast area. There is strong evidence that sfc dewpoints through
the weekend and into early next week fall into the 30s with total
column Pwats descending towards 0.50 inches (climatologically near
the 10th percentile for early/mid July). Thus, instead of entering
deeper into monsoon flow of mid July, the atmosphere is actually
regressing more towards an early June dry pattern. Though ensemble
spread begins to grow towards the middle of next week, it may very
well be until the end of next week at the earliest before sufficient
moisture can return north and storm chances reenter the forecast
picture.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry westerly flow aloft with only few to sct high clouds at all area
terminals. Winds to mainly follow typical diurnal trends, with some
afternoon gustiness likely, especially at KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
Dry southwesterly flow aloft will be in place through early next
week. Minimum humidity values will be at or below 10% at most lower
desert locations. Overnight recovery will be only fair. Surface
winds will favor south-southwesterly in the afternoon and evening
with gusts in the teens. Overall, the pattern is more characteristic
of June rather than July.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A relatively dry air mass with westerly flow aloft
will continue to limit thunderstorm coverage today. More moisture
will increase thunderstorm chances the second half of the week.
Another drier and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
depicted clear skies across much of southeast Arizona at this time.
A few mid-level clouds were noted northwest of Tucson in the
vicinity of Picacho Peak, and near the International border adjacent
Cochise County. Dewpoints at lower elevations valid 15Z ranged from
the 50s-lower 60s, and these temps were nearly identical to 24 hours
ago. Surface temps valid 15Z were also essentially unchanged versus
this time Monday.
05/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 1.11 inches
increased only 0.04 inch versus 24 hours ago. The column was nearly
saturated around 600 mb but was quite dry in the surface-700 mb
layer and above 500 mb. 05/12Z upper air plots depicted a 500 mb
ridge axis that extended from west of northern Baja California
eastward to Florida. Meanwhile, a belt of westerlies encompassed the
northern CONUS with a 559 dm low centered over British Columbia.
Light wly/swly flow aloft prevailed across southeast Arizona.
The 12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM was similar to the HRRR in depicting the
initial development for showers/tstms late this morning or early
this afternoon to occur near the Chiricahua Mountains in eastern
Cochise County, or perhaps further west near the Huachuca Mountains
in southwestern Cochise County. The bulk of showers/tstms later this
afternoon and evening is progged to occur generally across the New
Mexico bootheel, but some precip echoes were progged to be further
west into about the southeast one quarter of Cochise County.
Based on these solutions, see no reason to tamper with the official
forecast that depicts isolated showers/tstms this afternoon/evening
to occur from near Nogales eastward to the Chiricahua Mountains, or
generally near the International border adjacent eastern Santa Cruz/
Cochise Counties. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere, with high
temps this afternoon virtually identical to temps achieved Monday
afternoon.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
Expect isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and evening mainly near
the International border southeast of KTUS. The best chance of
-TSRA/-SHRA will be near the KDUG terminal, and perhaps further west
and northwest to KFHU and KALK. However, the probability of
occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, west to northwest of KTUS expect clear skies to scattered
clouds above 20k ft msl thru the period. KTUS vicinity east-to-south
few to scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl into this evening followed
by decreasing clouds with mostly clear skies late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Surface wind this afternoon will generally be wly
at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Otherwise, surface wind will be
variable in direction at less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Enough moisture will linger for thunderstorms near
the International border again today, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Another brief push of moisture will bring increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from near Tucson south and east Wednesday
into Friday. Drying will then occur once again this weekend. 20-ft
winds will generally favor diurnal patterns at 15 mph or less, with
some enhancement in areas where afternoon westerly/northwesterly
flow is the norm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /150 AM MST/...Water vapor imagery and 05/00Z upper-
air plots show a sprawling ridge that extends generally west to east
from the central Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico and into west
Texas. This has resulted in a continuation of a dry westerly flow
aloft across the desert southwest as evidenced on the 05/00Z KTWC
sounding. The PW on the sounding was up a bit from 12 to 24 hours
ago, with a value of 1.28 inches, which was about two-tenths of an
inch greater. Both the CIRA LPW Total and the U of A GPS PW show a
value as of 06Z of just a tad over an inch.
Models indicate that the ridge to our south will shift eastward
through early Wednesday to a position over the southern plains with
the ridge axis extending westward across northern Mexico. As this
shift occurs, return flow on the western flank of the ridge will
allow moisture to increase during the middle to latter part of the
week. Therefore, expect thunderstorm chances to increase mainly
Wednesday into Thursday, with the focus for thunderstorms being from
around Nogales to Douglas, with the activity spreading a bit farther
north Thursday. For now it looks like the farthest northwestern
extent of the storms will be around the Tucson area, with very
little threat west and north of the city. Even so, it only looks
like isolated coverage for the Tucson metro. However, this could
change depending on what subsequent model runs indicate, so stay
tuned.
Confidence is not high at this point with the GFS being the most
robust model in wanting to bring in the threat for storms, whereas
the NAM and ECMWF, not so much. Just one example, looking at MOS POP
numbers for Tucson, the NAM shows POPS in the single digits for
Wednesday through Thursday, whereas the GFS has 12-hour POPS of 14,
39 and 21 percent for Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday,
respectively. ECMWF is much closer to the NAM numbers. So, sorta
went with a blend, but not yet close to the GFS values, especially
for Wednesday night. With subsequent model runs, the forecast may
change between now and the middle to latter part of the week.
Confidence is moderate to high at this point that areas along the
international border will see at least scattered convection.
By the weekend a low pressure system will begin to affect the
Pacific northwest as the ridge becomes reestablished to our south
again, resulting in a drying trend for the weekend and into early
next week.
For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs above
normal today and then near normal Wednesday through Friday before
becoming around 2 to 4 degs above normal again for the weekend and
early next week. Low temps will range from 4 to 6 degs above normal
Wednesday morning, then around 2 to 4 degs above normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Late this afternoon temperatures were in the late 90s with dewpoints
int he the mid to upper 70s across east central KS, which has caused
heat indices to be in the 110 to 114 degree range. The mixing was a
bit deeper across the western counties where dewpoints have dropped
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Most numerical models do not show thunderstorms developing across
the CWA this afternoon and evening, though MLCAPE values range from
4,000 to 5,000 J/KG. The HRRR is the only model that shows isolated
thunderstorms developing across the CWA late this afternoon and
evening but based on the lack of vertical CU development, I really
do not see any boundary or minor vortmaxes that could help increase
ascent for any thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Tonight, most models show scattered thunderstorms across northeast
CO and the southern NE Panhandle this afternoon congealing into an
MCS which will track east or southeast across the plains. The HRRR,
NAM, and WRF solutions show the MCS tracking southeast across the
CWA, though it may begin to weaken as it moves into northeast and
east central KS late Tonight. If an MCS develops and maintains its
intensity through the night then there will be a chance for heavy
rainfall and potential damaging wind gusts along with penny to
quarter size hail, with the better chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms across north central KS during the early morning
hours Wednesday. The exact track and the intensity of the MCS will
not be known until it develops and begins to propagate to the
southeast. Therefore, I went with chance pops after 6Z across the
CWA but there will be higher pops wherever the MCS tracks.
Wednesday, The morning thunderstorm complex will exit the eastern
counties of the CWA by 15Z. Skies should clear from west to east
across the CWA during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Highs should warm into the lower and mid 90s across the southern
counties along with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s. If the MCS
remains intense through the morning hours, then an outflow boundary
may shift south of the CWA and the cloud cover may hold through most
of the afternoon hours keeping Highs several degrees cooler. At this
time I think we will clear out by afternoon and heat up into the mid
90s south of I-70. Therefore I have issued a heat advisory for areas
along and south of I-70 from 12 Noon through 8 PM Wednesday where
heat indices around 105 degrees during the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Storms are expected to form in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska Wednesday
evening and move east toward the area overnight. There is a chance
some storms may make it into the northern portion of the CWA by late
evening so low end PoPs are included during this time frame mainly
north of I-70. Thunderstorm chances continue for Thursday as another
shortwave is forecast to move through late afternoon into the
evening. Soundings indicate a cap will be in place most of the
afternoon Thursday, but with a front in the area and sufficient
heating, the cap should degrade allowing a chance for storms to
form. Models show high CAPE values over 3000 J/kg along with 0-6 km
shear ranging between 25-35 knots. This makes organized convection
possible with strong winds and gusty hail being the main hazard.
Friday looks to have the best chance to be dry, although another
shortwave near central Kansas may provide some focus for storms in
east central Kansas during the afternoon Friday. As for
temperatures during this time, the hottest day looks to be Thursday
with heat indicies once again near 105 degrees due to dewpoints in
the low 70s Thursday afternoon. The front finally makes it through
the area this day allowing Friday to cool slightly with highs in the
low 90s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Weak mid-level ridging will be in place at the beginning of the
period. A frontal boundary is expected to stall in southern Kansas
Saturday afternoon. This may be the focal point for thunderstorm
development Saturday afternoon and evening. An amplified trough will
be in place across the Western US late next weekend. EC and GFS
differ on the effects from the trough. GFS much more bullish with
strength of a shortwave trough lifting out from base of the trough.
The unsettled pattern will continue through the remainder of the
period as a potentially unstable atmosphere will be in place. As mid-
level southwesterly flow settles in across the area, weak embedded
waves will have the potential to spark thunderstorm activity for the
remainder of the period. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal
with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dew
points near 70 degrees, heat index values will range from the mid-
90s to near 100 degrees for the entire extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016.
Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours.
Scattered thunderstorms may move across the terminals between 6Z
and 15Z WED, which could potentially provide brief MVFR
visibilities and cloud cover.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ034>039-
054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Baerg
AVIATION...Gargan