Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/04/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST SUN JUL 03 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring
drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few storms formed today near the Utah border
where moisture and instability profiles are a bit more favorable.
This will be short-lived as drier and more stable air continues to
move into the Southwest. After today, a regime of dry westerly flow
will develop over the region. Chances for showers will be near zero
through at least the next seven days, after today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible Monday from 18Z-
02Z over the White Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as dry
westerly flow takes over across the area. Only a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms exists across the White Mountains Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...Dry weather
can be expected with afternoon relative humidity values generally
around 15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mottice
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST SUN JUL 03 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring
drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few storms formed today near the Utah border
where moisture and instability profiles are a bit more favorable.
This will be short-lived as drier and more stable air continues to
move into the Southwest. After today, a regime of dry westerly flow
will develop over the region. Chances for showers will be near zero
through at least the next seven days, after today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible Monday from 18Z-
02Z over the White Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as dry
westerly flow takes over across the area. Only a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms exists across the White Mountains Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...Dry weather
can be expected with afternoon relative humidity values generally
around 15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mottice
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
236 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather sections.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday to the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
and this next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of the week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return. Further
drying from the west is possible into the weekend with near average
temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although the atmosphere over southern Arizona and far southeast
California is far from bone dry, the large-scale weather pattern
over the western states has shifted and we are now looking at a
respite from our typical daily monsoon thunderstorm activity.
Stronger westerly flow aloft has been setting up into the Pacific
northwest, shunting the upper high far to the south resulting in a
drying west to southwest flow aloft across Arizona. 12z 500mb plot
showed anticyclonic flow across the state while the area soundings
displayed deep general west flow aloft through the column. PWAT
values have fallen quite a bit with Phoenix reporting just 1.19
inches this morning. At 1 pm the surface dewpoints over the central
AZ deserts were mostly in the mid 50s but had fallen 3 to 9 degrees
over the past 24 hours. Early afternoon satellite imagery showed
some cumulus developing over south central AZ with pretty much sunny
skies west of Maricopa county, and there was little deep convection
developing over higher terrain areas over central or southeast
Arizona. Based on the morning Phoenix sounding, CAPE was minimal and
skinny and further drying in the low levels would pretty much
eliminate what CAPE was present. It is thus interesting to look at
the current SPC mesoanalysis graphic which showed 500-1000 j/kg of
MLCAPE over south-central AZ; this seems overdone and in any case
this CAPE was forecast to drop markedly as the afternoon wears on.
Based on the extremely unfavorable westerly steering flow and
anticyclonic flow aloft, there is little if any chance for desert
storms today and only a slight chance over higher terrain areas east
of Phoenix - mainly east of Globe.

During the early part of the week this pattern will continue as
troffing strengthens over the Pacific northwest and west/southwest
flow aloft over Arizona keeps thinning the moisture profile
resulting in mostly clear skies and little if any chance for storms -
even over southern Gila County. Due to the gradual drying of the air
mass and the considerable sunshine expected, high temp Monday and
Tuesday will climb slightly with hottest deserts reaching around 110
degrees both days.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Some cumulus and altocumulus can be expected the rest of the
afternoon into the evening...towering cumulus over the higher terrain
north and east of Phoenix metro. Westerly surface winds will
predominate through at least 06Z over Phoenix metro...lingering past
07Z at PHX. Expect a repeat Monday with a bit stronger speeds in the
afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Clear skies through Monday. Surface winds will favor southerly
directions through Monday. An exception will be downvalley winds at
night east of the Lower Colorado River Valley. This will be
especially true west of the Imperial Valley near the mountains with
local gusts in the evening of 25-30 kts.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday: Stronger than usual early July southwest
flow across the region will result in slightly above normal
temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture
Wednesday and Thursday could lead to a few thunderstorms over higher
terrain of southern Gila and far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with
little to no chance of wetting rains elsewhere. Moisture declines
again Friday through Sunday with storm chances going away. With this
drier overall pattern, afternoon minimum humidity levels will fall
back into a 10 to 20 percent range...lower west of the Lower Colorado
River Valley...with fair to good overnight recovery. Afternoon wind
speeds will be somewhat stronger than typical for early July...most
noticeably on Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/MO




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
140 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday to the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
and this next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of the week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return. Further
drying from the west is possible into the weekend with near average
temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although the atmosphere over southern Arizona and far southeast
California is far from bone dry, the large-scale weather pattern
over the western states has shifted and we are now looking at a
respite from our typical daily monsoon thunderstorm activity.
Stronger westerly flow aloft has been setting up into the Pacific
northwest, shunting the upper high far to the south resulting in a
drying west to southwest flow aloft across Arizona. 12z 500mb plot
showed anticyclonic flow across the state while the area soundings
displayed deep general west flow aloft through the column. PWAT
values have fallen quite a bit with Phoenix reporting just 1.19
inches this morning. At 1 pm the surface dewpoints over the central
AZ deserts were mostly in the mid 50s but had fallen 3 to 9 degrees
over the past 24 hours. Early afternoon satellite imagery showed
some cumulus developing over south central AZ with pretty much sunny
skies west of Maricopa county, and there was little deep convection
developing over higher terrain areas over central or southeast
Arizona. Based on the morning Phoenix sounding, CAPE was minimal and
skinny and further drying in the low levels would pretty much
eliminate what CAPE was present. It is thus interesting to look at
the current SPC mesoanalysis graphic which showed 500-1000 j/kg of
MLCAPE over south-central AZ; this seems overdone and in any case
this CAPE was forecast to drop markedly as the afternoon wears on.
Based on the extremely unfavorable westerly steering flow and
anticyclonic flow aloft, there is little if any chance for desert
storms today and only a slight chance over higher terrain areas east
of Phoenix - mainly east of Globe.

During the early part of the week this pattern will continue as
troffing strengthens over the Pacific northwest and west/southwest
flow aloft over Arizona keeps thinning the moisture profile
resulting in mostly clear skies and little if any chance for storms -
even over southern Gila County. Due to the gradual drying of the air
mass and the considerable sunshine expected, high temp Monday and
Tuesday will climb slightly with hottest deserts reaching around 110
degrees both days.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is good that wind shifts/transition to an easterly
component overnight will occur later than typical, and similarly the
afternoon switch back to a westerly direction will occur earlier
than usual.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under clear skies. Sfc
winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction, though
some periods yielding a light and variable direction will be
possible towards sunrise.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. With this drier pattern, afternoon minimum
humidity levels will fall back into a 10 to 20 percent range with
fair to good overnight recovery. Wind speeds will be somewhat
stronger than typical for early July with more frequent afternoon
gusts especially around higher terrain features.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Hirsch



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will
significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday.
The lack of showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon
temperatures as well. A modest increase in moisture for the middle
of this week will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
and Thursday mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Another drier
and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very quiet early July afternoon compared to what
we`ve seen over the past week or so as cumulus cloud build-ups are
generally near the higher terrain. This is due to ridging aloft just
south of the region and a drier airmass as surface dewpoints have
now dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s.  A couple of
thunderstorms have formed off the Chiricahua mountains in the past
hour or so and we`ll have a few more storms form off the mountains
of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties this afternoon then drifting
briefly into the adjacent lower elevations. Any storms should
quickly fade around sunset with skies becoming mostly clear
overnight.  It will be even more of a struggle Monday and Tuesday to
get much more than some cumulus build-ups in these same higher
terrain areas as high pressure aloft remains centered just to our
south east. With the drier air, temperatures will be near seasonal
normals the next few days.

By Wednesday and Thursday a return flow of moisture around the high
pressure which will then be located near the Big Bend of Texas will
try to bring some increased moisture to the area. Latest
NAM/SREF/GEFS have backed off a bit with the moisture and thus
northward push of the moisture as the flow remains a bit more
southwesterly. The deterministic GFS is the most aggressive with the
moisture push north and west. Have made some minor tweaks to the
PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday with the best chance of storms being
south and east of Tucson. The moisture increase Wednesday and
Thursday will be short lived as westerly flow aloft returns by
Friday as any remaining chances of storms on Friday will be in the
southeast portions of the forecast area. Dry weather is expected
next weekend. Expect a few degrees of cooling Wednesday and Thursday
with temperatures starting to warm back up Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
High pressure aloft will result in drier conditions with mostly
clear skies for the terminals and partly cloudy skies for the
mountains through sunset. A slight chc of SHRA/TSRA is possible
mainly for the mountains through about 04/03Z, then skies becoming
mostly clear overnight. A few mountain cloud build-ups are expected
again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with little convection through
Tuesday. A brief push of moisture will bring some scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once
again. Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some
enhancement in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm.
Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20
mph in valley locations through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST SUN JUL 03 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring
drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly fair weather cumulus expected today as drier
and more stable air begins to move into the southwest. Just enough
remnant moisture and instability remains today for a few showers to
develop. After today, a long loved regime of dry westerly flow will
develop over the region. Chances for showers will be near zero
through at least the next seven days, after today.

Zones/grids look good, no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z mainly
over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns northward.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mottice
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
832 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday. The lack of
showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures
as well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest wv imagery and upper air plots indicate mid and
upper level ridging just to our south with generally westerly flow
aloft. Still some decent moisture in the boundary layer below about
650 mb and very dry above. Precipitable water off the 12z KTWC
sounding came in at 1.26 inches. As boundary layer moisture
continues to decrease, moisture will be very limited to generate
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but can`t rule out slight
chances in the higher terrain over Cochise and Santa Cruz counties
along with the White Mountains. It will be even more of a struggle
Monday and Tuesday to get much more than some cumulus build-ups in
these same higher terrain areas with high pressure aloft centered
just to our south east. With the drier air, temperatures will be
near seasonal normals the next few days.

By Wednesday and Thursday a return flow of moisture around the high
pressure which will then be located near the Big Bend of Texas will
bring chances of showers and thunderstorms back to much of Southeast
Arizona. However, this will be short lived as westerly flow aloft
returns by Friday and continues next weekend with a drier pattern
returning. Expect a few degrees of cooling Wednesday through Friday
then warming back up next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
High pressure building in from west to east will bring more stable
conditions and mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be less than
10 kts through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected to start the new
week with little if any convection today through Tuesday. A brief
surge of moisture will bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once again.
Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some enhancement
in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm. Portions of
zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley
locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
815 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities
return. Further drying from the west is possible into next weekend
with near average temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning plot data as well as sounding data showed upper
ridging in place across Arizona with a deep profile of westerly flow
aloft through most of the atmosphere. PWAT values at Phoenix had
dropped to 1.19 inches and there was little if any CAPE present in
the sounding; additional drying in the profile will eliminate what
skinny CAPE is currently present. Surface dewpoints over the central
deserts were down 6-12 degrees from 24 hours ago and were mostly in
the mid to upper 50s at 8 am. IR imagery this morning showed
basically clear skies area-wide with just a few patches of mid cloud
forming to the southwest of Phoenix. Current SPC mesoanalysis
graphics showed just a few hundred j/kg of MLCAPE over the central
deserts and forecast over 1000 j/kg by early afternoon which seems a
bit excessive as latest NAM run only calls for aorund 300-400 j/kg
this afternoon. Given the persistent strong westerly flow aloft that
will be present this afternoon and tendency to mix down drier air to
the surface, expect that if any storms develop they will be over the
mountains to the east of Phoenix and only some aternoon cumulus will
develop over the deserts. Current forecasts have this covered and
look to be in good shape. No updates are planned attm.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Building anticyclonic heights noted over the region both in the
evening RAOBs as well as long-framed regional radar loops, with
returns almost oriented on a northward moving concave arc from
Barstow, CA through the AZ White Mountains. Westerly mean and UL
flow has returned, with storm tops quickly being lofted
northeastward on this evening`s stronger storms. The SE CA and AZ
Lower Deserts will be in for several quiet days as several strong
Pacific troughs transition through the West Coast and Intermountain
West. Water vapor imagery overnight depicts three such trough
circulations landfalling or moving towards the West Coast. The
southern most is significantly dry through the mid and upper levels
over the L.A. Basin. Unseasonably strong westerly flow noted 500mb
and above, with a 50-55kt 300mb jet skirting across northern AZ later
tonight and into Monday, tied to the southern most shortwave. Loss of
our moisture advecting wind profile will allow for some thinning of
PWATs and LL dewpoints with daytime mixing, drawing them out of the
MMB richness. Resulting PoP forecasts save for some lingering PoPs on
the Rim for today, are well below climo and have nil chances for the
lower deserts and non-zero but still non-weather mentionable values
for the Zone 24/Southern Gila mountains. Under clear skies and fairly
typical winds, temperatures will settle out within range of early
July normals, 107F for Phoenix and Yuma both today and Monday. Subtle
variances in 1000-500mb thicknesses and a peak of 850mb temperatures
on Tuesday could support temperatures near 110F for the warmer
deserts, likely the warmest day but staying below excessive heat
thresholds.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is good that wind shifts/transition to an easterly
component overnight will occur later than typical, and similarly the
afternoon switch back to a westerly direction will occur earlier
than usual.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under clear skies. Sfc
winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction, though
some periods yielding a light and variable direction will be
possible towards sunrise.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. With this drier pattern, afternoon minimum
humidity levels will fall back into a 10 to 20 percent range with
fair to good overnight recovery. Wind speeds will be somewhat
stronger than typical for early July with more frequent afternoon
gusts especially around higher terrain features.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities
return. Further drying from the west is possible into next weekend
with near average temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Building anticyclonic heights noted over the region both in the
evening RAOBs as well as long-framed regional radar loops, with
returns almost oriented on a northward moving concave arc from
Barstow, CA through the AZ White Mountains. Westerly mean and UL
flow has returned, with storm tops quickly being lofted
northeastward on this evening`s stronger storms. The SE CA and AZ
Lower Deserts will be in for several quiet days as several strong
Pacific troughs transition through the West Coast and Intermountain
West. Water vapor imagery overnight depicts three such trough
circulations landfalling or moving towards the West Coast. The
southern most is significantly dry through the mid and upper levels
over the L.A. Basin. Unseasonably strong westerly flow noted 500mb
and above, with a 50-55kt 300mb jet skirting across northern AZ later
tonight and into Monday, tied to the southern most shortwave. Loss of
our moisture advecting wind profile will allow for some thinning of
PWATs and LL dewpoints with daytime mixing, drawing them out of the
MMB richness. Resulting PoP forecasts save for some lingering PoPs on
the Rim for today, are well below climo and have nil chances for the
lower deserts and non-zero but still non-weather mentionable values
for the Zone 24/Southern Gila mountains. Under clear skies and fairly
typical winds, temperatures will settle out within range of early
July normals, 107F for Phoenix and Yuma both today and Monday. Subtle
variances in 1000-500mb thicknesses and a peak of 850mb temperatures
on Tuesday could support temperatures near 110F for the warmer
deserts, likely the warmest day but staying below excessive heat
thresholds.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is good that wind shifts/transition to an easterly
component overnight will occur later than typical, and similarly the
afternoon switch back to a westerly direction will occur earlier
than usual.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under clear skies. Sfc
winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction, though
some periods yielding a light and variable direction will be
possible towards sunrise.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. With this drier pattern, afternoon minimum
humidity levels will fall back into a 10 to 20 percent range with
fair to good overnight recovery. Wind speeds will be somewhat
stronger than typical for early July with more frequent afternoon
gusts especially around higher terrain features.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
206 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities
return. Further drying from the west is possible into next weekend
with near average temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Building anticyclonic heights noted over the region both in the
evening RAOBs as well as long-framed regional radar loops, with
returns almost oriented on a northward moving concave arc from
Barstow, CA through the AZ White Mountains. Westerly mean and UL
flow has returned, with storm tops quickly being lofted
northeastward on this evening`s stronger storms. The SE CA and AZ
Lower Deserts will be in for several quiet days as several strong
Pacific troughs transition through the West Coast and Intermountain
West. Water vapor imagery overnight depicts three such trough
circulations landfalling or moving towards the West Coast. The
southern most is significantly dry through the mid and upper levels
over the L.A. Basin. Unseasonably strong westerly flow noted 500mb
and above, with a 50-55kt 300mb jet skirting across northern AZ later
tonight and into Monday, tied to the southern most shortwave. Loss of
our moisture advecting wind profile will allow for some thinning of
PWATs and LL dewpoints with daytime mixing, drawing them out of the
MMB richness. Resulting PoP forecasts save for some lingering PoPs on
the Rim for today, are well below climo and have nil chances for the
lower deserts and non-zero but still non-weather mentionable values
for the Zone 24/Southern Gila mountains. Under clear skies and fairly
typical winds, temperatures will settle out within range of early
July normals, 107F for Phoenix and Yuma both today and Monday. Subtle
variances in 1000-500mb thicknesses and a peak of 850mb temperatures
on Tuesday could support temperatures near 110F for the warmer
deserts, likely the warmest day but staying below excessive heat
thresholds.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out...ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into the
greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Therefore mostly clear
skies are forecast. Surface winds will be light easterly, becoming
west during the afternoons and evening generally under 10 knots.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into
the greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies
are forecast, with steady south winds 8 to 15 knots.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday. The lack of
showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures
as well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 03/00Z upper-air plots show
nearly zonal flow across the Desert Southwest as Arizona lies
between high pressure over southern Chihuahua Mexico and a low
pressure system over central California. Plenty of dry mid level air
across the eastern Pacific waters and extending across northern
Baja, northwest Sonora Mexico and the southern two thirds of Arizona
and into New Mexico. The 03/00Z KTWC sounding showed significant
drying in the past 48 hours or so, with a PW of 1.2 inches compared
to 1.77 inches from Thursday afternoon. The 06Z GPS PW values from
the U of A indicate around 1.2 inches and the CIRA LPW total
indicates 1.1 inches. IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across much of Arizona at this time, with the exception being some
mid level clouds over eastern Sonora and northwest Chihuahua that
have spilled over into extreme southern Cochise county and parts
of Santa Cruz county.

As of 08Z (1 AM MST), temperatures ranged from the lower 70s to the
lower 80s which are generally around 5 to 8 degs warmer than 24
hours ago. Dewpoint temperatures range from the lower 50s to the mid
60s and these values range from 1 to 5 degs cooler/drier than 24
hours ago. As a result, relative humidity values range from 15 to 30
percent drier than this time yesterday.

Models indicate that the ridge to our south and west will build a
bit farther north and east today, becoming nearly overhead. This
will result in warmer afternoon temperatures through Tuesday as the
high remains in the same general area through that time. In
addition, expect a reduction in the threat for showers and
thunderstorms as well. Limited activity may occur today and Monday,
mostly over the White mountains and perhaps isolated activity over
southern parts of Cochise county on Tuesday. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday models indicate that return flow on the western flank of
the ridge will allow for an increase in moisture with PW`s generally
ranging from around 0.75-1.0 inches through Tuesday before climbing
back up to around 1.0-1.3 inches through early Thursday. Values will
then decrease again late in the week and into the weekend as drier
air gets ushered in from the west in response to an approaching
trough well to our northwest and north. This will once again result
in increasing daytime temperatures after a brief respite on
Wednesday and Thursday due to increasing moisture and the threat of
convection moderating temperatures a bit.

For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs below
normal today, then will hover within a degree or two either side of
normal for Monday through Friday. For next weekend, highs a few
degrees above normal. Low temperatures will range from 2 to 5 degs
above normal each morning, although the warmest mornings will occur
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
High pressure building in from west to east will bring more stable
conditions and mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be less than
10 kts through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected to start the new
week with little if any convection today through Tuesday. A brief
surge of moisture will bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once again.
Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some enhancement
in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm. Portions of
zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley
locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
921 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will
bring drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next
week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...The forecast was updated for the overnight time
period. The chance of precipitation was lowered to only isolated
showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties
through midnight...then mainly dry after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM MST/...A somewhat linear convective
feature formed this afternoon along a convergence zone formed in
the wake of last nights outflow and a developing s/wv ridge to our
west. This feature is nearly aligned along the I-40 corridor,
which is problematic for travelers this afternoon.

After this evening, drier mid-level air and anticyclonic flow is
evident to our west on water vapor imagery. Additionally, warmer
temperatures aloft will develop through at least Monday with this
s/wv ridge.

At the same time, long wave troughing develops over the northwest
United States, providing a prolonged period of drier and stable
flow over the southwest. A brief intrusion of monsoon moisture may
return Wednesday or Thursday, but then right back to dry
westerlies heading into next weekend.

The net result is a period of mainly dry and warmer conditions
after today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions with a few
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday after 18Z mainly over the
mountain areas of the Mogollon Rim and Chuska Mountains. Shower
activity will diminish around 02Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona.
Storm motion on Sunday will be from the west to the east.

Tuesday through thursday...Only daytime and isolated storms are
expected across ponderosa forests through the period as dry westerly
flow increases across the area. Elsewhere very dry with afternoon
minimum humidities belwo 15 percent.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/Peterson
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
830 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying, transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes
drier. Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week,
save for a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in
humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Anti-cyclonic mid/upper level flow, following the passing trof
yesterday/overnight stabilized the airmass in our forecast area
today. There were no aftn tstms, only stable cumulus clouds.
Additionally, upper air data showed the airmass had dried noticeably
from the west today, with the monsoon moisture boundary now
pushed into southeast AZ.

Anti-cyclonic winds aloft tomorrow and Monday, with unseasonably
warm mid level temperatures and additional moisture loss, should
provide dry and warmer weather over most of the forecast area.
Current dry and warmer forecasts look good. no updates planned.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...135 PM MST...

Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread
into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake
of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints at 1 PM were still elevated and mostly ranged from
the mid 50s to low 60s, although they were trending downward and
were running 2 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Despite
elevated moisture, the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon will
pretty much be confined to higher terrain areas east of Phoenix;
upper streamlines this afternoon will be slightly anticyclonic and
laminar with no significant deformation/difluence. With minimal upper
support we can expect some cumulus over the deserts - and we can see
that developing already on visible imagery - but that will be about
it convectively speaking. Early afternoon SPC mesoanalysis graphics
depicted CAPE over 1000 j/kg over the central deserts, but there was
a marked drying trend forecast with CAPE dropping noticeably from the
west as the afternoon progresses.

More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop as the ML/UL high
centers remain to our southeast over Mexico on Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to normal
through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and
a return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into the
greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Therefore mostly clear
skies are forecast. Surface winds will be light easterly, becoming
west during the afternoons and evening generally under 10 knots.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into
the greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies
are forecast, with steady south winds 8 to 15 knots.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez/CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
821 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of convection through Monday. The lack of showers
and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures as
well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will increase
the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.


&&

.DISCUSSION...We have dried quite a bit in the past 36 hours,
with precipitable water values down to around 1 to 1.2 inches
across the area, and surface dew points generally in the 50s
(down 6 to 12 degrees over the past 24 hours). Even with the
drying trend, good instability allowed for several strong
thunderstorms southwest through southeast of Tucson over the past
few hours. With sunset things are quieting down.

The current forecast looks good with the downward trend in storms
to start the week. As this happens, we will heat back up to near
or above typical early July averages. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
High pressure building in from west to east on the back side of a
mid-level trough will bring more stable conditions to start the
new week. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts with VFR
conditions throughout. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected to start the new
week. Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some
enhancement in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm.
Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20
mph in valley locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The drying trend will continue Sunday and
Monday as the ridge of high pressure aloft over Sonora and
Chihuahua shunts the deep moisture to our south and east with most
areas remaining dry. About the best we can hope for is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the White
Mountains both days with the rest of the forecast area remaining
dry. Given the drier atmosphere, temperatures will will warm back
up to normal values by Monday and Tuesday. The ridge axis will be
far enough east on Tuesday to start a southerly flow of moisture
into far southeast Arizona. Thus, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the higher terrain and
international border area across Cochise County. The northward
push of moisture over the rest of the region is expected Wednesday
and Thursday with a more typical early July monsoon pattern then
before drier westerly flow returns for the end of the work week
and into next weekend as the mid/upper high pushes south of the
area again.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Lader/Cantin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 PM MST SAT JUL 02 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather into this evening. By
Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A somewhat linear convective feature formed this
afternoon along a convergence zone formed in the wake of last nights
outflow and a developing s/wv ridge to our west. This feature is
nearly aligned along the I-40 corridor, which is problematic for
travelers this afternoon.

After this evening, drier mid-level air and anticyclonic flow is
evident to our west on water vapor imagery. Additionally, warmer
temperatures aloft will develop through at least Monday with this
s/wv ridge.

At the same time, long wave troughing develops over the northwest
United States, providing a prolonged period of drier and stable flow
over the southwest. A brief intrusion of monsoon moisture may return
Wednesday or Thursday, but then right back to dry westerlies
heading into next weekend.

The net result is a period of mainly dry and warmer conditions after
today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...until 03z Sun expect scattered
shra/tsra and isold +tsra along and north of the Mogollon Rim and
isolated coverage elsewhere. Strongest storms will contain mvfr/ifr
conditions and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms ending aft 03z
Sun. Aft 18z Sun isolated thunderstorm coverage for areas above 6500
feet with fair wx elsewhere. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For Sunday and Monday, a drier and more stable
westerly flow will bring decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage
to northern Arizona. Storm motion on Sunday will be from the west to
the east.

Tuesday through thursday...Only daytime and isolated storms are
expected across ponderosa forests through the period as dry westerly
flow increases across the area. Elsewhere very dry with afternoon
minimum humidities below 15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of convection through Monday. The lack of showers
and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures as
well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will increase
the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The atmosphere is starting to dry out with GPS pwat
values down to 1 inch to 1.25 inches across southeast Arizona as
ridging builds in and drier air aloft is mixing down. There were a
few showers and thunderstorms briefly this morning that formed along
the higher terrain southeast of Tucson but those quickly faded away
as they moved off the mountains with just a few light showers
redeveloping in the last half hour. One shower did pass over Sierra
Vista with one gauge recorded a half inch this morning. Have trended
pops downward this afternoon but will still depict a slight chance
of a shower or thunderstorm south and east of Tucson into early this
evening.

The drying trend will continue Sunday and Monday as the ridge of
high pressure aloft over Sonora and Chihuahua shunts the deep
moisture to our south and east with most areas remaining dry. About
the best we can hope for is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the White Mountains both days with the
rest of the forecast area remaining dry. Given the drier atmosphere,
temperatures will will warm back up to normal values by Monday and
Tuesday. The ridge axis will be far enough east on Tuesday to start
a southerly flow of moisture into far southeast Arizona. Thus,
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible for the
higher terrain and international border area across Cochise County.
The northward push of moisture over the rest of the region is
expected Wednesday and Thursday with a more typical early July
monsoon pattern then before drier westerly flow returns for the end
of the work week and into next weekend as the mid/upper high pushes
south of the area again.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
High pressure building in from west to east on the back side of a
mid-level trough will bring stable conditions this afternoon into
early next week. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts with VFR
conditions throughout. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected through early next week.
Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some enhancement
in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm. Portions of
zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley
locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

Public...GL
Aviation/Fire Weather...Cantin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
135 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms through this evening over higher terrain
areas east of Phoenix. Subtle drying transitioning in from the west
will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms
Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, mainly east of
Globe. High temperatures will steadily climb into the weekend and
early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of next week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread
into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake
of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints at 1 PM were still elevated and mostly ranged from
the mid 50s to low 60s, although they were trending downward and
were running 2 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Despite
elevated moisture, the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon will
pretty much be confined to higher terrain areas east of Phoenix;
upper streamlines this afternoon will be slightly anticyclonic and
laminar with no significant deformation/difluence. With minimal upper
support we can expect some cumulus over the deserts - and we can see
that developing already on visible imagery - but that will be about
it convectively speaking. Early afternoon SPC mesoanalysis graphics
depicted CAPE over 1000 j/kg over the central deserts, but there was
a marked drying trend forecast with CAPE dropping noticeably from the
west as the afternoon progresses.

More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop as the ML/UL high
centers remain to our southeast over Mexico on Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to normal
through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and
a return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
135 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms through this evening over higher terrain
areas east of Phoenix. Subtle drying transitioning in from the west
will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms
Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, mainly east of
Globe. High temperatures will steadily climb into the weekend and
early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of next week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread
into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake
of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints at 1 PM were still elevated and mostly ranged from
the mid 50s to low 60s, although they were trending downward and
were running 2 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Despite
elevated moisture, the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon will
pretty much be confined to higher terrain areas east of Phoenix;
upper streamlines this afternoon will be slightly anticyclonic and
laminar with no significant deformation/difluence. With minimal upper
support we can expect some cumulus over the deserts - and we can see
that developing already on visible imagery - but that will be about
it convectively speaking. Early afternoon SPC mesoanalysis graphics
depicted CAPE over 1000 j/kg over the central deserts, but there was
a marked drying trend forecast with CAPE dropping noticeably from the
west as the afternoon progresses.

More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop as the ML/UL high
centers remain to our southeast over Mexico on Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to normal
through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and
a return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1249 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.UPDATE...Updated Fire Weather Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms early today from Phoenix eastward. Subtle
drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances
for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9 am this morning, MCS associated with a passing short wave
continued to dissipate as it passed by to the northeast of Phoenix,
mostly grazing the border of our far eastern CWA as a few
showers/storms moved past Roosevelt and to the north of Globe. IR
imagery showed sunny skies from Phoenix west, and the 12z 500mb plot
indicated pronounced anticyclonic curvature over western AZ/SERN CA
behind the exiting trof. Of course, low level moisture over south
central AZ remains elevated this morning, with 1.57 inches of PWAT
at Phoenix and central desert dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, we look to be moving into a drying phase of the monsoon
starting today and heading into the first part of next week as
westerly flow aloft and deeper westerly steering flow looks to
dominate the weather pattern for Arizona. For the rest of today we
should see mostly sunny skies west of Phoenix with some afternoon
cumulus in the area, and we will see a continued chance of afternoon
storms over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix, although any
storm that forms will head off quickly towards the east/northeast.
Rain chances in the Phoenix area will be slim this afternoon, around
10 percent at best and most areas mostly likely will not see any
convection. West/southwest steering flow is always very detrimental
to storm chances in the greater Phoenix area and with ridging moving
in from the west, chances are even slimmer than normal. Current
forecasts look to be in good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Monsoon 2016 is off to an interesting start. Outside of our
exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which
themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales),
an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion,
record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more
typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen
as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off!

Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still
noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few
ACARS soundings. Satellite derived winds and ACARS soundings indicate
anticyclonic flow is beginning to transition further up through the
atmo profile over portions of the southern CO River Valley. UL
divergence and still rich Monsoonal moisture surface (PWAT axis of
values 1.5 inches or greater extends from Vegas southeastward through
portions of Maricopa County) remains, where thunderstorm activity
continues overnight and is lighting up area radar scopes. Until the
weak troughing and PVU fully exit the CWA later today, enough CAPE
lingers within the turbulent mean flow to support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon from Phoenix
eastward (also in locations that mainly missed out on Friday
afternoon`s excitement and atmo turning over). Southeast CA
observation sites have observed a steady decrease in moisture values
beginning Friday afternoon, with dewpoints running 3 to 5 degrees
drier over the last few hours compared to this time early Friday.

Upper troughing along with the cooler 500mb temperatures and storm-
supportive ML lapse rates will exit to our northeast as a more stable
upper air pattern builds in from west-southwest by this evening. LL
mixing ratios do not complete dry out and remain deep enough to
support evening precip activity over the eastern AZ mountains
Saturday and Sunday. More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop
as the ML/UL high centers remain to our southeast over Mexico through
early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to
normal through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and a
return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
955 AM MST SAT JUL 02 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather again today. Starting
Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring a downturn
in activity heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Long lived gravity wave/outflow/decaying MCS from
Nevada last night has finally exited our eastern border. Behind
this wave, subsidence and building hghts will limit convective
development today, despite decent moisture profiles. Our current
POPs may be a little high, but they are in the ballpark.

After today, drier and stable westerly flow will take over for the
remainder of the holiday weekend and into next week. Expect fair and
seasonably warm conditions as a result.

Zones/grids look good, no updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...until 03z Sun expect scattered
shra/tsra and isold +tsra across northern Arizona, then decreasing
coverage. Strongest storms will contain mvfr/ifr conditions and
gusty winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
persist again today, with only a few isolated storms on Sunday as
drier air filters into the area. Storm motion will be from the west
to the east.

Monday through Wednesday...Only a few isolated storms are expected
through the period over the higher terrain as dry westerly flow
develops across the area.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
925 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms early today from Phoenix eastward. Subtle
drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances
for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9 am this morning, MCS associated with a passing short wave
continued to dissipate as it passed by to the northeast of Phoenix,
mostly grazing the border of our far eastern CWA as a few
showers/storms moved past Roosevelt and to the north of Globe. IR
imagery showed sunny skies from Phoenix west, and the 12z 500mb plot
indicated pronounced anticyclonic curvature over western AZ/SERN CA
behind the exiting trof. Of course, low level moisture over south
central AZ remains elevated this morning, with 1.57 inches of PWAT
at Phoenix and central desert dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, we look to be moving into a drying phase of the monsoon
starting today and heading into the first part of next week as
westerly flow aloft and deeper westerly steering flow looks to
dominate the weather pattern for Arizona. For the rest of today we
should see mostly sunny skies west of Phoenix with some afternoon
cumulus in the area, and we will see a continued chance of afternoon
storms over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix, although any
storm that forms will head off quickly towards the east/northeast.
Rain chances in the Phoenix area will be slim this afternoon, around
10 percent at best and most areas mostly likely will not see any
convection. West/southwest steering flow is always very detrimental
to storm chances in the greater Phoenix area and with ridging moving
in from the west, chances are even slimmer than normal. Current
forecasts look to be in good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Monsoon 2016 is off to an interesting start. Outside of our
exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which
themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales),
an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion,
record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more
typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen
as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off!

Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still
noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few
ACARS soundings. Satellite derived winds and ACARS soundings indicate
anticyclonic flow is beginning to transition further up through the
atmo profile over portions of the southern CO River Valley. UL
divergence and still rich Monsoonal moisture surface (PWAT axis of
values 1.5 inches or greater extends from Vegas southeastward through
portions of Maricopa County) remains, where thunderstorm activity
continues overnight and is lighting up area radar scopes. Until the
weak troughing and PVU fully exit the CWA later today, enough CAPE
lingers within the turbulent mean flow to support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon from Phoenix
eastward (also in locations that mainly missed out on Friday
afternoon`s excitement and atmo turning over). Southeast CA
observation sites have observed a steady decrease in moisture values
beginning Friday afternoon, with dewpoints running 3 to 5 degrees
drier over the last few hours compared to this time early Friday.

Upper troughing along with the cooler 500mb temperatures and storm-
supportive ML lapse rates will exit to our northeast as a more stable
upper air pattern builds in from west-southwest by this evening. LL
mixing ratios do not complete dry out and remain deep enough to
support evening precip activity over the eastern AZ mountains
Saturday and Sunday. More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop
as the ML/UL high centers remain to our southeast over Mexico through
early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to
normal through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and a
return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday: The monsoon high will rebuild across
southeastern Arizona Monday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture is expected
Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier westerly flow across
southeastern California will battle deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the week, with showers
and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and eastern Arizona.
Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
925 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms early today from Phoenix eastward. Subtle
drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances
for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9 am this morning, MCS associated with a passing short wave
continued to dissipate as it passed by to the northeast of Phoenix,
mostly grazing the border of our far eastern CWA as a few
showers/storms moved past Roosevelt and to the north of Globe. IR
imagery showed sunny skies from Phoenix west, and the 12z 500mb plot
indicated pronounced anticyclonic curvature over western AZ/SERN CA
behind the exiting trof. Of course, low level moisture over south
central AZ remains elevated this morning, with 1.57 inches of PWAT
at Phoenix and central desert dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, we look to be moving into a drying phase of the monsoon
starting today and heading into the first part of next week as
westerly flow aloft and deeper westerly steering flow looks to
dominate the weather pattern for Arizona. For the rest of today we
should see mostly sunny skies west of Phoenix with some afternoon
cumulus in the area, and we will see a continued chance of afternoon
storms over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix, although any
storm that forms will head off quickly towards the east/northeast.
Rain chances in the Phoenix area will be slim this afternoon, around
10 percent at best and most areas mostly likely will not see any
convection. West/southwest steering flow is always very detrimental
to storm chances in the greater Phoenix area and with ridging moving
in from the west, chances are even slimmer than normal. Current
forecasts look to be in good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Monsoon 2016 is off to an interesting start. Outside of our
exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which
themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales),
an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion,
record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more
typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen
as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off!

Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still
noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few
ACARS soundings. Satellite derived winds and ACARS soundings indicate
anticyclonic flow is beginning to transition further up through the
atmo profile over portions of the southern CO River Valley. UL
divergence and still rich Monsoonal moisture surface (PWAT axis of
values 1.5 inches or greater extends from Vegas southeastward through
portions of Maricopa County) remains, where thunderstorm activity
continues overnight and is lighting up area radar scopes. Until the
weak troughing and PVU fully exit the CWA later today, enough CAPE
lingers within the turbulent mean flow to support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon from Phoenix
eastward (also in locations that mainly missed out on Friday
afternoon`s excitement and atmo turning over). Southeast CA
observation sites have observed a steady decrease in moisture values
beginning Friday afternoon, with dewpoints running 3 to 5 degrees
drier over the last few hours compared to this time early Friday.

Upper troughing along with the cooler 500mb temperatures and storm-
supportive ML lapse rates will exit to our northeast as a more stable
upper air pattern builds in from west-southwest by this evening. LL
mixing ratios do not complete dry out and remain deep enough to
support evening precip activity over the eastern AZ mountains
Saturday and Sunday. More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop
as the ML/UL high centers remain to our southeast over Mexico through
early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to
normal through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and a
return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday: The monsoon high will rebuild across
southeastern Arizona Monday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture is expected
Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier westerly flow across
southeastern California will battle deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the week, with showers
and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and eastern Arizona.
Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
817 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of convection expected today with little if any
expected Sunday and Monday. The lack of showers and cloud cover will
allow for higher afternoon temperatures as well. An increase in
moisture the middle of next week will increase the chances of showers
and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV imagery shows mostly clear skies from
Tucson south and westward with partly to mostly cloudy skies north
and east of Tucson. A few showers and thunderstorms are now
occurring over the Upper Gila River Valley near Safford but these
are gradually weakening. Meanwhile, a weakening forward propagating
MCS over north/central Arizona continues to move towards the White
Mountains this morning which may result in a few thunderstorms
across northern Graham and Greenlee counties later this morning. For
the rest of the area, the mid and upper levels have dried out
considerably but boundary layer moisture remains adequate with PWAT
values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Latest HRRR runs and UofA WRF NAM/GFS
show just enough boundary layer moisture for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms from the Tucson area south and eastward today. With
ridging building in, the storms should generally struggle so we
aren`t expecting significant impacts, but brief heavy rain is
possible.

The drying trend will continue Sunday and Monday as the ridge of
high pressure aloft over Sonora shunts the deep moisture to our
south and east with most areas remaining dry and otherwise just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the White
Mountains. With ridging building in, temperatures will warm back up
to near normal values by Monday and Tuesday. The ridge axis will be
far enough east on Tuesday to start a southerly flow of moisture
into southeast Arizona. Thus, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the higher terrain and international
border then. The northward push of moisture over the rest of the
region is expected Wednesday and Thursday with a more typical early
July monsoon pattern then before drier westerly flow returns for the
end of the work week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
Considerably fewer showers and thunderstorms today, mainly for areas
south and east of Tucson. Mostly clear skies this morning for the
terminals, but during the afternoon hours, ceilings generally 10-15K
ft. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions in heavy rainfall are
likely near storms where wind gusts could exceed 30 kts. Otherwise
surface winds generally 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will begin to diminish across the region
beginning today and continuing through Tuesday, resulting in a
decrease in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a slight
bump up in afternoon temperatures. Some moisture will begin to
return to the area Wednesday for a general increase in showers and
thunderstorms once again.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Water vapor imagery showed the shortwave that tracked over the
region early this morning situated over central and eastern Missouri
by this afternoon. As a result, much of the outlook area has been
mostly dry today, with only some isolated to scattered light showers
across portions of east central Kansas as the warm front remains
stationary just south of the forecast area. Widespread stratus
blanketed the region today, and this insolation resulted in
temperatures fluctuating very little today with afternoon highs only
reaching into the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s from north to south.

Models show the surface high pressure currently centered near the
Great Lakes region sliding southward into the area overnight into
Monday morning. Models show the stratus deck remaining in place
overnight, so this cloud cover should keep low temperatures in the
low/mid 60s. The main concern for overnight is for this stratus deck
to lower further overnight as a result of the approaching surface
high and the abundance of moisture in the boundary layer. Several
short-range models are suggesting that the low ceilings that are
already in place will only lower further, resulting in reduced
visibilities and areas of fog developing from around midnight
through around sunrise Monday morning. As a result, have continued
with the mention of areas of fog for the entire outlook area
overnight. There is some uncertainty with just how low visibilities
will drop, but some guidance suggests that visibilities will be low
enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. However, will allow future
shifts to further evaluate this potential.

While visibilities should improve some by mid morning, the low
stratus deck may persist through the morning hours and should
gradually scatter out some during the afternoon, especially across
central Kansas. As a result, temperatures may be slow to rise during
the morning, but should reach into the low/mid 80s east to mid/upper
80s west during the afternoon across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Monday night through Wednesday, A minor shortwave trough embedded
within the subtropical branch of the the upper level jet will move
from southwest KS and the TX PNHDL, east across KS and northern OK
into southwest MO and northwest AR Tuesday night into Wednesday.

As a lee surface trough deepens through the day Tuesday, southerly
low-level winds will advect deeper moisture northward across the
CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across west central KS
Tuesday afternoon, along the surface trough/dryline and move east
across the CWA Tuesday night. The western counties may see isolated
thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon hours of Tuesday
as weak ascent spreads east across north central and central KS
during peak heating. The thunderstorms that develop across west
central KS may be strong to severe, since MLCAPES will increase to
around 3,000 J/KG, though the 0-6KM effective shear will only be
around 25 KTS. Some of these strong or possibly severe thunderstorms
may move into west central KS during the early and mid evening hours
of Tuesday. The storms should weaken as they move east across
northeast and east central KS over night.

The showers and thunderstorms will move east of the area by 12Z WED.
Skies will clear from west to east across the CWA during the mid to
late morning hours of Wednesday. Expect mostly sunny skies during
the afternoon hours of Wednesday.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon will be hot with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Maximum afternoon heat indices will range from 102
to 109 degrees. A heat advisory will most likely be needed for
central, northeast and east central KS both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon.

For Wednesday night through Sunday, there looks to be scattered
precipitation chances for the entire period.  This is due to quasi
zonal flow over the CONUS with multiple shortwaves transversing over
the area through the end of the week and weekend.  As for
temperatures, Thursday looks to be the hottest day with high
temperatures near the mid 90s.  Dewpoints near the mid 70s are
forecast for very eastern Kansas making heat indicies around 105
degrees possible on this day.  The rest of the period will see
high temperatures in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Challenging forecast with ceilings hovering near IFR/MVFR category
boundary and some sites already having MVFR visibilities. With
moist airmass and light northeast winds, expect conditions to
fluctuate some this evening but then drop well down into the
LIFR/IFR range overnight. As weak high pressure ridge moves off to
the east on the 4th, conditions should gradually improve through
the morning hours with VFR returning by early to mid afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan/Heller
AVIATION...GDP



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough
beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to
move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease.
Temperatures are in the 70s/80s across the region with variable
winds at less than 10 mph.

The latest model runs of the NAM and HRRR have chances for PoPs this
afternoon over the far southwestern portions (possibly into the
northwestern portions) of the region as a weak shortwave moves over
the CWA. CAPES will get to around 1500 J/kg but bulk shear is not
impressive. The remainder of the night is expected to be dry.
Around midnight MDT, fog is expected to form over areas along and
east of Hwy 83. The SREF and NAM models have the fog lasting until
around 13/14Z Monday morning.

A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting
trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s.
There are slight chances for precipitation in the far western
portion of the region in the late afternoon as an upper level
shortwave moves towards the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 511 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

At KGLD...VFR expected through the TAF period. Uncertain that fog
will be able to develop overnight with light downslope winds
forecast at the surface. Nonetheless...with dew points in the
lower 60s could briefly saturate with radiational cooling so won`t
completely rule it out at this time around sunrise Monday morning.

At KMCK...low clouds and fog likely overnight tonight and into
Monday morning. Surface winds will be light southeast which will
help with saturation. SREF probabilities relatively high for
visibility reductions of less than 1 mile so will carry a tempo
group around sunrise for VLIFR conditions.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 304 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

Upper trough axis this morning per water vapor imagery centers over
central CO with several embedded waves ejecting eastward across the
central plains. Closer to the sfc, a warm front stretched southwest
to northeast across central KS, with a stout low level jet from the
southwest maintaining an MCS across western and central Kansas.
High precipitable water values and effective shear values to 40 kts
from the west look to maintain this complex into the day Saturday.
Radar analysis suggest high rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour
within the heavier bands, progged to enter Dickinson, Morris, and
Lyon counties within the next few hours. Radar estimates at this time
towards Great Bend are between 3 and 4 inches thus far and are
likely to climb.

Short term guidance confirms the forecast analysis for this MCS to
gradually lift northeast across our CWA through the early afternoon
today as the inverted trough axis shifts eastward,lifting the warm
front into the CWA. Dewpoints increase back into the 70s while PWAT
values average over 2 inches. Warm precipitation processes will
create healthy precip rates on average between 1 and 2 inches per
hour through the morning hours. Localized flooding will be possible
with this complex as Flash Flood Guidance values average around 2-3
inches for 1 hour.

There may be a lull in precipitation in the afternoon, especially
from the Interstate 70 corridor and locations southward as temporary
subsidence fills in behind the departing MCS. Some clearing of cloud
cover over far east central areas may help raise highs to the middle
80s with 70s likely for much of the forecast area.

Next upper shortwave trough ejects east over northern KS this
evening, reinforcing showers and thunderstorms along the front
initially centered north of Interstate 70 in the early evening
period. Any convection that develops during the late afternoon may
reach severe limits as MUCAPE values exceed 2000 J/KG while shear
values increase to near 40 kts. Main hazards would be the damaging
winds and small hail in addition to the heavy rainfall. The severe
threat should begin to wane overnight as the focus turns to the heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding threat.

The frontal boundary and MCS drops southward overnight with another
round of heavy precipitation likely. Much of northeast Kansas should
expect to see decent rainfall with totals ranging from an additional
1 to 3 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

For Sunday, models are a little more similar in timing the
inverted surface trough`s movement to the southeast, generally
taking it out of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. The GFS
remains the slower solution and shows some potential for precip to
linger across Anderson CO Sunday evening. Otherwise the overall
trend is for precip chances to be winding down as the deeper
moisture axis shifts southeast and the low amplitude shortwave
propagates east. Have held onto some small POPs Sunday night
across east central KS, but think there may be a better chance
precip comes to an end by the evening hours. Highs Sunday should
remain well below normal due to cloud cover and morning precip.
Think highs will range from the lower 70s near the NEB state line
to near 80 over Anderson CO.

Forecast soundings keep the low levels saturated through Monday
morning and think there could be some low stratus through a good
part of the morning until the boundary layer mixes out. Because of
this, have not gone quite as cool for Lows Monday keeping temps in
the lower 60s. Aside from the morning clouds, Independence Day
looks to be nice due to subsidence in the wake of the upper
shortwave allowing skies to become partly sunny by the afternoon.
Weak surface ridging and no real warm air advection is expected to
keep highs in the lower and mid 80s.

For Tuesday through Friday, the biggest change to the weather will
be a return to summer heat. Models continue to show hot air
advecting into the central plains from the southwest, and the GFS
still suggests some triple digit readings are possible by
Thursday. Think that the expected rainfall saturating the soil may
help to moderate the magnitude of the warm up so the forecast
keeps highs in the 90s through the end of the work week. The
soil moisture may also add to the low level humidity and as a
result the forecast is showing heat indices around 105 for the
last half of the work week. There are some small precip chances
Tuesday and Tuesday night with models showing a weak shortwave
moving across the region. After Tuesday night, precip chances are
a little more questionable as the GFS advects in a decent elevated
mixed layer to cap the boundary layer. The ECMWF has taken to
showing the potential for nocturnal MCS development somewhere over
the central plains by the end of the week. Because of this have
some small POPs for Thursday night. We`ll have to monitor the
potential for nightly MCS development as it would have an impact
on temperatures as well as area rivers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Main concern for this forecast will be convection timing and
duration at the terminals. Complex of tsra in western and central
KS should move into the MHK area around 08Z and TOP and FOE in the
09Z-10Z period. Expect tsra to continue in local area through 17Z
then diminish before increasing chances once again after 01Z Sun.
Cigs vfr and vsbys will vary from vfr to mvfr or ifr at times
through the period. Expect brief cigs of mvfr with some of the
storms. WInds east around 10 kts or less through the period.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ024-026-038>040-
054>056-058-059.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ008>012-020>023-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...53




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
220 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will move east out of the area this
morning leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies across western
Kansas through this afternoon. Winds will be shifting from an
easterly direction this morning to more of a southerly direction
by this afternoon. This is due to a warm front being pushed
northward into northern Kansas. These southerly winds will be
short lived as models suggest a shortwave moving out of the
Central Rockies into the Plains by this evening helping push this
frontal boundary back south through the CWA tonight. This will
allow winds to shift to more of a northerly direction behind the
front starting across west central Kansas this evening then
through the remainder of the CWA tonight. Another cluster of
thunderstorms are anticipated to form along and ahead of this
frontal boundary starting in the late afternoon and continuing
into the overnight hours. However, thunderstorm chances end from
northwest to southeast tonight and should be confined to south
central Kansas by sunrise Sunday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from
the upper 70s across central Kansas to around 90 degrees along the
KS/OK border. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower
60s across west central Kansas to upper 60 across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into
central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.

Then for Sunday into next Friday, a mainly dry period is forecast
with a warming trend. Highs warm from the 80s Sunday and around 90
for Monday, the 4th of July, into the mid to upper 90s from
Tuesday into next Friday, as warmer upper level ridging builds
into the Central Plains. Overnight lows will gradually warm also
from 60s into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Another cluster of thunderstorms will move across western Kansas
early this morning bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the TAF
sites. These storms should move away from the TAF sites by sunrise
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the morning into the
early afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms is possible again
tomorrow evening into the overnight period. Winds will generally
start out from the southeast at less than 10 knots shifting to
more of a southerly direction after sunrise into the afternoon
hours. The only exception to this will be around the thunderstorms
this morning where gusty winds will be found.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  81  62 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  84  61  83  63 /  70  70  10  10
EHA  86  64  87  64 /  60  70  10  10
LBL  88  64  85  64 /  50  70  20  10
HYS  81  61  78  60 /  70  70  10  10
P28  90  69  84  64 /  40  90  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
220 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will move east out of the area this
morning leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies across western
Kansas through this afternoon. Winds will be shifting from an
easterly direction this morning to more of a southerly direction
by this afternoon. This is due to a warm front being pushed
northward into northern Kansas. These southerly winds will be
short lived as models suggest a shortwave moving out of the
Central Rockies into the Plains by this evening helping push this
frontal boundary back south through the CWA tonight. This will
allow winds to shift to more of a northerly direction behind the
front starting across west central Kansas this evening then
through the remainder of the CWA tonight. Another cluster of
thunderstorms are anticipated to form along and ahead of this
frontal boundary starting in the late afternoon and continuing
into the overnight hours. However, thunderstorm chances end from
northwest to southeast tonight and should be confined to south
central Kansas by sunrise Sunday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies tonight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from
the upper 70s across central Kansas to around 90 degrees along the
KS/OK border. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower
60s across west central Kansas to upper 60 across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into
central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.

Then for Sunday into next Friday, a mainly dry period is forecast
with a warming trend. Highs warm from the 80s Sunday and around 90
for Monday, the 4th of July, into the mid to upper 90s from
Tuesday into next Friday, as warmer upper level ridging builds
into the Central Plains. Overnight lows will gradually warm also
from 60s into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Another cluster of thunderstorms will move across western Kansas
early this morning bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the TAF
sites. These storms should move away from the TAF sites by sunrise
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the morning into the
early afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms is possible again
tomorrow evening into the overnight period. Winds will generally
start out from the southeast at less than 10 knots shifting to
more of a southerly direction after sunrise into the afternoon
hours. The only exception to this will be around the thunderstorms
this morning where gusty winds will be found.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  81  62 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  84  61  83  63 /  70  70  10  10
EHA  86  64  87  64 /  60  70  10  10
LBL  88  64  85  64 /  50  70  20  10
HYS  81  61  78  60 /  70  70  10  10
P28  90  69  84  64 /  40  90  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1158 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Update to cancel flash flood watch. Flash flood threat has
diminished as only showers and a few weaker thunderstorms remain
in our CWA (with watch area thunderstorm- free). I can rule out
additional showers or thunderstorms, but heavy rain threat has
ended for the night in our area.

UPDATE Issued at 822 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Continued Flash Flood Watch as potential for slow moving
thunderstorms continues over the watch area. With 1hr and 3hr FFG
in the 1.5 to 2 inch range in the watch area any slow moving
thunderstorm would potentially lead to flash flooding.

Better instability is in the south at this time, however there is
still enough instability to still support isolated to scattered
stronger storms along the Colorado/Kansas state line, with short
range guidance still showing several clusters moving across our
CWA. If activity ends up merging into larger moderate rain area
with stronger storms in the south (where more favorable
environment is) we may see decreased flash flood potential. No
changes were planned as current trends haven`t lowered confidence
yet in flood potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As of 2 PM CDT, 1 PM MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast. Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
The warmest temperatures have been observed east of highway 25 where
low clouds were slower to arrive. Winds are southeast at 5-15 mph,
gusting to 25 mph in a few spots. At the surface, a low pressure was
centered over northern New Mexico. In addition, a stalled front is
located over eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Aloft, a
substantial plume of moisture with an associated shortwave trough
are moving northeast across southwest Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, a very moist
atmosphere will combine with a passing upper level disturbance
moving across the region, leading to widespread thunderstorm
development. Precipitable water readings, already at least 2
standard deviations above normal, are expected to increase further
this evening with low level flow from the southeast and upper level
monsoonal flow. As an upper level disturbance moves out into the
High Plains, thunderstorms will develop along the Rockies and spread
east. The development phase is already underway. Further, the
surface low over New Mexico will spread northeast through the night.
Frontogenetic lift on the northwest side of the low should help
sustain a large area of thunderstorms over northwest Kansas as they
move through this evening or tonight.

As for timing, expecting the heavy rain producing thunderstorms to
move into east Colorado this evening around 6 PM MDT. The storms
will continue spreading east, reaching SW Nebraska and NW Kansas by
9 PM MDT. Thunderstorms may not completely exit the region until
early tomorrow morning. Also, a few showers and storms may develop
in an increasingly unstable atmosphere this afternoon east of
highway 25. This new development over Kansas and Nebraska shouldn`t
amount to much. The complex of storms moving in this evening is the
one to watch.

As for severe weather potential, overall feel that the severe
potential is fairly low. Would not anticipate widespread severe
weather with this event. Instability and shear parameters indicate
that a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The main
threats with these storms would be marginally severe hail and
damaging downburst winds.

The primary threat with thunderstorms tonight will be heavy rainfall
and flash flooding. Couldn`t find a reason to get rid of the flash
flood watch due to slow storm movement, heavy rainfall observed over
the watch area last night, highly anomalous precipitable water
readings and multiple forcing mechanisms. Locations south of a line
from Norton, Kansas to Flagler, Colorado stand the best chance for
heavy rainfall this evening/tonight and possibly multiple rounds as
well.

For tomorrow, a lull in precipitation chances is forecast during the
morning hours as most thunderstorm activity should have exited to
the east. Another shortwave trough slides over the High Plains by
tomorrow afternoon. Do expect shower/thunderstorm development as
this occurs, primarily over SW Nebraska and NW Kansas. The threat
for heavy rainfall should remain with precipitable water readings
still expected to be around 2 standard deviations above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The recent wet and cool weather will transition to a hotter and
dryer pattern from Sunday through the middle of next week.

Saturday night the upper trough that was moving through the
region during on Saturday is expected to move east of the region
overnight. Short wave ridging is expected through Monday with a
dirty westerly flow turning more southwesterly by late in the
week. As a result, other than a very isolated late day
thunderstorm or two, mostly dry conditions are expected from
Sunday through Wednesday morning. Then as the flow becomes more
southwesterly aloft later in the week, a more "monsoonal" pattern
develops with disturbances and elevated moisture moving out of the
west southwest, east of the Rockies, and across the high plains.
This will produce mainly isolated thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening.

The moist upslope return flow moves out of the region Sunday
night as a surface lee trough develops along the Rocky Mountain
front range. This turns the near surface flow more southwesterly
and keeps the near surface environment mostly dry. Superblend is
giving high temperatures in the 90s through next week, but could
definitely see a return of the lower 100 degree temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday as has been indicated by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers/thunderstorms continue to impact both KGLD and KMCK early
in the TAF period with decreasing chances through the night.
Redevelopment may occur Saturday afternoon after a lull Saturday
morning, however trends have been towards lower coverage than
originally indicated. A very moist air mass remains in place,
however the convection earlier disrupted low level flow and now
short range guidance is not as pessimistic as earlier this
evening. I trended current TAFs towards consensus which still
favors IFR cigs at KMCK, however now it appears that CIGS should
remain MVFR at KGLD through Saturday morning.

Another round of low stratus will be possible Saturday evening and
Saturday night with progression from the north to the south,
meaning KMCK is in line for lowest conditions and impacts
earlier. IFR was introduced at KMCK during the evening in line
with all current guidance. Lowest cigs and possible fog would be
after the current valid TAF period.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1158 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Update to cancel flash flood watch. Flash flood threat has
diminished as only showers and a few weaker thunderstorms remain
in our CWA (with watch area thunderstorm- free). I can rule out
additional showers or thunderstorms, but heavy rain threat has
ended for the night in our area.

UPDATE Issued at 822 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Continued Flash Flood Watch as potential for slow moving
thunderstorms continues over the watch area. With 1hr and 3hr FFG
in the 1.5 to 2 inch range in the watch area any slow moving
thunderstorm would potentially lead to flash flooding.

Better instability is in the south at this time, however there is
still enough instability to still support isolated to scattered
stronger storms along the Colorado/Kansas state line, with short
range guidance still showing several clusters moving across our
CWA. If activity ends up merging into larger moderate rain area
with stronger storms in the south (where more favorable
environment is) we may see decreased flash flood potential. No
changes were planned as current trends haven`t lowered confidence
yet in flood potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As of 2 PM CDT, 1 PM MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast. Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
The warmest temperatures have been observed east of highway 25 where
low clouds were slower to arrive. Winds are southeast at 5-15 mph,
gusting to 25 mph in a few spots. At the surface, a low pressure was
centered over northern New Mexico. In addition, a stalled front is
located over eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Aloft, a
substantial plume of moisture with an associated shortwave trough
are moving northeast across southwest Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, a very moist
atmosphere will combine with a passing upper level disturbance
moving across the region, leading to widespread thunderstorm
development. Precipitable water readings, already at least 2
standard deviations above normal, are expected to increase further
this evening with low level flow from the southeast and upper level
monsoonal flow. As an upper level disturbance moves out into the
High Plains, thunderstorms will develop along the Rockies and spread
east. The development phase is already underway. Further, the
surface low over New Mexico will spread northeast through the night.
Frontogenetic lift on the northwest side of the low should help
sustain a large area of thunderstorms over northwest Kansas as they
move through this evening or tonight.

As for timing, expecting the heavy rain producing thunderstorms to
move into east Colorado this evening around 6 PM MDT. The storms
will continue spreading east, reaching SW Nebraska and NW Kansas by
9 PM MDT. Thunderstorms may not completely exit the region until
early tomorrow morning. Also, a few showers and storms may develop
in an increasingly unstable atmosphere this afternoon east of
highway 25. This new development over Kansas and Nebraska shouldn`t
amount to much. The complex of storms moving in this evening is the
one to watch.

As for severe weather potential, overall feel that the severe
potential is fairly low. Would not anticipate widespread severe
weather with this event. Instability and shear parameters indicate
that a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The main
threats with these storms would be marginally severe hail and
damaging downburst winds.

The primary threat with thunderstorms tonight will be heavy rainfall
and flash flooding. Couldn`t find a reason to get rid of the flash
flood watch due to slow storm movement, heavy rainfall observed over
the watch area last night, highly anomalous precipitable water
readings and multiple forcing mechanisms. Locations south of a line
from Norton, Kansas to Flagler, Colorado stand the best chance for
heavy rainfall this evening/tonight and possibly multiple rounds as
well.

For tomorrow, a lull in precipitation chances is forecast during the
morning hours as most thunderstorm activity should have exited to
the east. Another shortwave trough slides over the High Plains by
tomorrow afternoon. Do expect shower/thunderstorm development as
this occurs, primarily over SW Nebraska and NW Kansas. The threat
for heavy rainfall should remain with precipitable water readings
still expected to be around 2 standard deviations above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The recent wet and cool weather will transition to a hotter and
dryer pattern from Sunday through the middle of next week.

Saturday night the upper trough that was moving through the
region during on Saturday is expected to move east of the region
overnight. Short wave ridging is expected through Monday with a
dirty westerly flow turning more southwesterly by late in the
week. As a result, other than a very isolated late day
thunderstorm or two, mostly dry conditions are expected from
Sunday through Wednesday morning. Then as the flow becomes more
southwesterly aloft later in the week, a more "monsoonal" pattern
develops with disturbances and elevated moisture moving out of the
west southwest, east of the Rockies, and across the high plains.
This will produce mainly isolated thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening.

The moist upslope return flow moves out of the region Sunday
night as a surface lee trough develops along the Rocky Mountain
front range. This turns the near surface flow more southwesterly
and keeps the near surface environment mostly dry. Superblend is
giving high temperatures in the 90s through next week, but could
definitely see a return of the lower 100 degree temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday as has been indicated by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers/thunderstorms continue to impact both KGLD and KMCK early
in the TAF period with decreasing chances through the night.
Redevelopment may occur Saturday afternoon after a lull Saturday
morning, however trends have been towards lower coverage than
originally indicated. A very moist air mass remains in place,
however the convection earlier disrupted low level flow and now
short range guidance is not as pessimistic as earlier this
evening. I trended current TAFs towards consensus which still
favors IFR cigs at KMCK, however now it appears that CIGS should
remain MVFR at KGLD through Saturday morning.

Another round of low stratus will be possible Saturday evening and
Saturday night with progression from the north to the south,
meaning KMCK is in line for lowest conditions and impacts
earlier. IFR was introduced at KMCK during the evening in line
with all current guidance. Lowest cigs and possible fog would be
after the current valid TAF period.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Continued Flash Flood Watch as potential for slow moving
thunderstorms continues over the watch area. With 1hr and 3hr FFG
in the 1.5 to 2 inch range in the watch area any slow moving
thunderstorm would potentially lead to flash flooding.

Better instability is in the south at this time, however there is
still enough instability to still support isolated to scattered
stronger storms along the Colorado/Kansas state line, with short
range guidance still showing several clusters moving across our
CWA. If activity ends up merging into larger moderate rain area
with stronger storms in the south (where more favorable
environment is) we may see decreased flash flood potential. No
changes were planned as current trends haven`t lowered confidence
yet in flood potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As of 2 PM CDT, 1 PM MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast. Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
The warmest temperatures have been observed east of highway 25 where
low clouds were slower to arrive. Winds are southeast at 5-15 mph,
gusting to 25 mph in a few spots. At the surface, a low pressure was
centered over northern New Mexico. In addition, a stalled front is
located over eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Aloft, a
substantial plume of moisture with an associated shortwave trough
are moving northeast across southwest Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, a very moist
atmosphere will combine with a passing upper level disturbance
moving across the region, leading to widespread thunderstorm
development. Precipitable water readings, already at least 2
standard deviations above normal, are expected to increase further
this evening with low level flow from the southeast and upper level
monsoonal flow. As an upper level disturbance moves out into the
High Plains, thunderstorms will develop along the Rockies and spread
east. The development phase is already underway. Further, the
surface low over New Mexico will spread northeast through the night.
Frontogenetic lift on the northwest side of the low should help
sustain a large area of thunderstorms over northwest Kansas as they
move through this evening or tonight.

As for timing, expecting the heavy rain producing thunderstorms to
move into east Colorado this evening around 6 PM MDT. The storms
will continue spreading east, reaching SW Nebraska and NW Kansas by
9 PM MDT. Thunderstorms may not completely exit the region until
early tomorrow morning. Also, a few showers and storms may develop
in an increasingly unstable atmosphere this afternoon east of
highway 25. This new development over Kansas and Nebraska shouldn`t
amount to much. The complex of storms moving in this evening is the
one to watch.

As for severe weather potential, overall feel that the severe
potential is fairly low. Would not anticipate widespread severe
weather with this event. Instability and shear parameters indicate
that a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The main
threats with these storms would be marginally severe hail and
damaging downburst winds.

The primary threat with thunderstorms tonight will be heavy rainfall
and flash flooding. Couldn`t find a reason to get rid of the flash
flood watch due to slow storm movement, heavy rainfall observed over
the watch area last night, highly anomalous precipitable water
readings and multiple forcing mechanisms. Locations south of a line
from Norton, Kansas to Flagler, Colorado stand the best chance for
heavy rainfall this evening/tonight and possibly multiple rounds as
well.

For tomorrow, a lull in precipitation chances is forecast during the
morning hours as most thunderstorm activity should have exited to
the east. Another shortwave trough slides over the High Plains by
tomorrow afternoon. Do expect shower/thunderstorm development as
this occurs, primarily over SW Nebraska and NW Kansas. The threat
for heavy rainfall should remain with precipitable water readings
still expected to be around 2 standard deviations above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The recent wet and cool weather will transition to a hotter and
dryer pattern from Sunday through the middle of next week.

Saturday night the upper trough that was moving through the
region during on Saturday is expected to move east of the region
overnight. Short wave ridging is expected through Monday with a
dirty westerly flow turning more southwesterly by late in the
week. As a result, other than a very isolated late day
thunderstorm or two, mostly dry conditions are expected from
Sunday through Wednesday morning. Then as the flow becomes more
southwesterly aloft later in the week, a more "monsoonal" pattern
develops with disturbances and elevated moisture moving out of the
west southwest, east of the Rockies, and across the high plains.
This will produce mainly isolated thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening.

The moist upslope return flow moves out of the region Sunday
night as a surface lee trough develops along the Rocky Mountain
front range. This turns the near surface flow more southwesterly
and keeps the near surface environment mostly dry. Superblend is
giving high temperatures in the 90s through next week, but could
definitely see a return of the lower 100 degree temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday as has been indicated by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers/thunderstorms continue to impact both KGLD and KMCK early
in the TAF period with decreasing chances through the night.
Redevelopment may occur Saturday afternoon after a lull Saturday
morning, however trends have been towards lower coverage than
originally indicated. A very moist air mass remains in place,
however the convection earlier disrupted low level flow and now
short range guidance is not as pessimistic as earlier this
evening. I trended current TAFs towards consensus which still
favors IFR cigs at KMCK, however now it appears that CIGS should
remain MVFR at KGLD through Saturday morning.

Another round of low stratus will be possible Saturday evening and
Saturday night with progression from the north to the south,
meaning KMCK is in line for lowest conditions and impacts
earlier. IFR was introduced at KMCK during the evening in line
with all current guidance. Lowest cigs and possible fog would be
after the current valid TAF period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM MDT /5 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ013-
     027-028-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM MDT Saturday for COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Given radar trends of a strengthening QLCS complex entering the
western zones, and an extremely moist airmass (dewpoints
approaching 70 and PW near 1.5 inch), decided to post a flash
flood watch for the NW zones through 7 AM Saturday. Latest HRRR
drives a large MCS across the CWA overnight, as such, some
flooding is possible south of this watch area. Storms are also
intensifying in SE Colorado, so some severe weather is possible
for the next several hours.

UPDATE Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Updated rainfall/thunderstorm coverage in the grids, along with
QPF/wx/sky grids, to align with radar/satellite trends, the
neighboring WFOs, and the HRRR forecasts through tonight. Radar
trends show strong to severe convection west of Lamar and
approaching Elkhart. In the short term, there will be a limited
threat of severe weather across far SW Kansas, where the
instability axis resides, with ML CAPE near 2000 J/kg. Later
tonight, agree with previous forecaster that another MCS will
track mainly across the northern zones. 18z GFS and HRRR strongly
suggest this evolution, as such increased pops into the
likely/definite category north of Dodge City. Primary threat
through tonight will be excessive rainfall and localized flooding,
with an exceptionally moist atmosphere with precipitable water
ranging from 1.6 inches NW to 1.8 inches SE as of 5 pm mesoanalysis.
Will need to consider a flash flood watch over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A stronger upper level shortwave trough will move from Four Corners
region and into western Kansas tonight. Another MCS (Mesoscale
Convective Complex) will likely move out of Colorado and and across
much of western Kansas tonight with several upper level waves.
Current models however forecast the best QPF and best heavy rain
chances north of Dodge City with the area from around Syracuse to
near Garden City and LaCrosse and north. Will graduate rainfall
chances with that in mind. Severe chances look minimal tonight with
maybe some small hail and strong winds to 40 to 50 mph. Very heavy
rainfall is expected wherever the MCS tracks with precipitable water
values from 1.5 to near 2 inches. Lows tonight will range in the mid
to upper 60s.

For Saturday, the strong shortwave will continue to move across
western Kansas with an attendant cold front. The cold front is
forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by mid afternoon
with the best chances for storms near and east of the front.
Strong to severe storms are possible mainly along and east of the
cold front with 2000 to 3000 J/kg CAPE and strong mid level
shear. Highs will be around 90 east of the front and low to mid
80s west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into
central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.

Then for Sunday into next Friday, a mainly dry period is forecast
with a warming trend. Highs warm from the 80s Sunday and around 90
for Monday, the 4th of July, into the mid to upper 90s from
Tuesday into next Friday, as warmer upper level ridging builds
into the Central Plains. Overnight lows will gradually warm also
from 60s into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2016

Another cluster of thunderstorms will move across western Kansas
early this morning bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the TAF
sites. These storms should move away from the TAF sites by sunrise
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the morning into the
early afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms is possible again
tomorrow evening into the overnight period. Winds will generally
start out from the southeast at less than 10 knots shifting to
more of a southerly direction after sunrise into the afternoon
hours. The only exception to this will be around the thunderstorms
this morning where gusty winds will be found.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  85  63  82 /  60  60  70  20
GCK  67  84  61  83 /  80  70  70  10
EHA  65  86  64  87 /  80  60  70  10
LBL  70  88  64  85 /  60  50  70  20
HYS  64  81  61  78 /  90  70  70  20
P28  70  90  69  84 /  40  40  90  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

This afternoon a deep mid-level trough was stretched across the
eastern U.S. with surface high pressure situated west of the trough
across the Northern and Central Plains. This west-northwesterly flow
aloft combined with low/mid cloud cover supported cooler conditions
this afternoon with highs topping out in the low/mid 80s. Drier
conditions from the surface high were noted across northeast Kansas
where dewpoint temperatures dropped into the 40s with dewpoints in
the 50s to near 60 degrees elsewhere.  With these drier conditions
in place, the onset of precipitation will be slower than originally
expected as it will take longer to overcome the drier air and for
the atmospheric profile to become more deeply saturated. As a
result, have lowered PoPs for eastern Kansas late afternoon into
this evening. There actually is still model uncertainty with the
eastward progression of precipitation tonight into Saturday morning
as some models are showing the better lift holding off until
overnight across north central to east central Kansas as the low-
level jet begins to increase over the area. The larger-scale models
still show showers and thunderstorms overspreading the entire
forecast area overnight, while the early afternoon model runs of the
HRRR and RAP suggest that precipitation may not even advance into
northeast Kansas overnight. If this slower solution pans out, then
PoPs are too high across eastern Kansas for overnight tonight.
However, expect moderate to heavy rainfall rates overnight into
Saturday morning with any precipitation that develops as an embedded
shortwave lifts northeastward over the area. Model soundings show a
deep saturation layer developing with PWAT values upwards of around
2 inches. As a result, rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches will be
possible across portions of north central, central, and east central
Kansas by Saturday morning. While instability will be limited
through tonight, 0-6km bulk shear values may be upwards of 40-50kts
across north central Kansas, so cannot rule out the potential for a
few strong storms tonight with gusty winds and hail being the
primary hazards.

Morning showers and thunderstorms will lift to the northeast as the
first embedded shortwave exits the area and a surface warm front and
inverted surface trough lift into east central Kansas by early
afternoon. Models show the inverted surface trough becoming more
north-south oriented during the afternoon hours, and this boundary
should provide sufficient lift to support additional widespread
showers and storms across north central and far northeast Kansas by
mid to late afternoon. Model soundings show a deep saturation layer
in place with this second round of storms, with PWAT values rising
into the 2 to 2.5 inch range so expect increasing rainfall rates
over north central Kansas during the mid/late afternoon hours. If we
are able to see some breaks in the cloud cover between the morning
and afternoon rounds of precipitation, conditions may destabilize
enough to increase the concerns for strong to severe storms as 40-
50kts of 0-6km shear should still be in place. With a few rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall possible, a Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect beginning tonight across the entire outlook area.

As for temperatures, with the warm front lifting into east central
Kansas Saturday afternoon, a decent spread in afternoon temperatures
is likely. There is still some uncertainty with where across east
central Kansas this temperature gradient will be, but the current
forecast has high temperatures ranging from near 70 degrees in far
northeast Kansas to the mid/upper 80s across central and east
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

The upper trough over the southwest US is forecast to slowly move
east into the Central Plains on Saturday and then into the
Missouri Valley Saturday night. The upper trough should be strong
enough to produce a surface wave along the stalled frontal
boundary across southern Kansas Saturday afternoon. The upper
trough and associated surface wave moves through the area by
Sunday morning. The 12z NAM was faster with the system compared to
the 12z GFS/ECMWF. The slower movement appears to be associated
with a piece of shortwave energy moving into southern plains
Sunday. In all cases, there is a high probability of a heavy
rainfall event over northeast Kansas Saturday night. Low-level
warm advection over surface boundary, synoptic scale UVV which
should have a very moist airmass in place by that point to work with
with PWAT values around 2 inches. The convective resolving models
(ARW and NMM)produce thunderstorms over the forecast area Saturday
night. The 12z NAM/GFS/ECMWF all produce significant pcpn over the
area, although their maximum amounts are north of the area closer to
the apparent 850 mb warm front. This decreases overall confidence
somewhat, but enough confidence remains for high pops and heavy rain
over the forecast area. The lingering shortwave energy on Sunday
supports keep pops in over the east. Will end the flash flood watch
at 12z Sunday morning over the western counties which by then will
have very low chances of heavy precipitation.

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Independence
Day which should result in dry weather and below normal
temperatures.

The 12z GFS is more bullish on building the upper ridge into the
Central Plains compared to the 12z ECMWF. The GFS certainly looks
drier and hotter Tue-Fri next week. Will go with a compromise at
this point with very warm temperatures returning with a chance of
thunderstorms due to warm advection Tuesday night. Thunderstorm
chances return late in the forecast as a weak boundary moves into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Main concern for this forecast will be convection timing and
duration at the terminals. Complex of tsra in western and central
KS should move into the MHK area around 08Z and TOP and FOE in the
09Z-10Z period. Expect tsra to continue in local area through 17Z
then diminish before increasing chances once again after 01Z Sun.
Cigs vfr and vsbys will vary from vfr to mvfr or ifr at times
through the period. Expect brief cigs of mvfr with some of the
storms. WInds east around 10 kts or less through the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ024-026-038>040-
054>056-058-059.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ008>012-020>023-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...53




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
215 AM MST MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably dry air will continue to filter into the region as the
pattern will transition away from a typical summer monsoon
appearance. Temperatures will remain in a near normal range
throughout the week under mostly clear skies. Only a modest chance
of storms will exist through southeast and eastern Arizona during
the midweek period, with virtually no chance of rain at lower
elevations from central Arizona through southern California.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The North American flow pattern has become more reminiscent of mid
June rather than early July with stronger zonal flow through the
northern states and the equatorward suppression of subtropical high
pressure. In fact, current objective analysis and 00Z regional
sounding data depicts the center of an anti-cyclone now depressed
into northern Chihuahua with large scale subsidence and distinct
warming in the H7-H5 layer enveloping much of the SW Conus.
Corresponding southwest flow aloft has eroded much of the better
quality moisture through the upper portions of the boundary layer.
KPSR sounding data sampled only 8 g/kg mixing ratios in the sfc-H8
layer and notably less than 5 g/kg in the critical H7 layer. KTWC
sounding was somewhat more moist, however even 9 g/kg through the
sfc-H7 layer is insufficient for organized deep convection given the
warmer temperatures aloft (yielding nearly 50 J/kg Cinh even at peak
heating).

Very little pattern change will be experienced over the next 48-60
hours as southwesterly flow will only be reinforced throughout the
region, further eradicating higher quality moisture. Models are in
excellent agreement showing boundary layer mixing ratios falling to
near 6 g/kg through central Arizona and a paltry 2 g/kg in southeast
California - neither of which are anywhere close to supporting deep
convection much less fair weather afternoon cumulus. Fortunately
with the stronger zonal flow to the north, H5 heights will remain
somewhat dampened near 592dm yielding temperatures near to just a
few degrees above average. Model spread is unusually small for early
July providing well above average forecast confidence.

Some minor forecast uncertainty enters the picture Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday as recent operational GFS iterations
suggest a modest seep of moisture (presumably a result of outflow
from more robust Sonoran convection) advecting into eastern Arizona.
00Z ECMWF and GEM output are less bullish with respect to moisture
advection; and even the operational GFS mixing ratio forecasts
barely eclipse 9 g/kg (hardly resounding for persistent storm
activity). While SREF probabilities hardly touch above zero, GFS
ensemble data does suggest outside chances for decaying storms to
clip far southeast Gila county. Otherwise, see little to no other
realistic chance of convective impacts affecting lower elevations to
the west.

The absence of convection will continue in earnest well into the
weekend as larger negative height anomalies develop over the Pacific
Northwest exacerbating westerly flow through the intermountain west
and SW Conus. Ensemble output is resoundingly in agreement showing a
much stronger than usual mid and upper tropospheric u-wind component
into the weekend. In fact, operational model output actually
indicates a trough passage and weak frontal boundary through the
region early next week. Thus, instead of entering deeper into
monsoon flow of mid July, the atmosphere is actually regressing more
towards an early June dry pattern. Saw no reason to indicate any
chance of rain much less clouds during the end of the forecast
period, and it may very well be until the middle of next week at the
earliest before sufficient moisture can return north and storm
chances reenter the forecast picture.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A very stable airmass will continue to develop over the forecast
area through Monday. Surface winds will follow typical diurnal
patterns, light easterly in the morning, shifting to westerly about 8
to 12 knots during the afternoon and evening hours.  West winds are
still expected between 8 and 10 knots at Sky Harbor airport between
830 pm and 9 pm local time, the most probable time for firework
displays in Phoenix.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A dry and stable airmass will continue over the forecast area
through Monday evening. South to southwest winds will continue in
the 6 to 8 knot range, become 10 to 12 knots during the afternoon
along the Colorado River.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. Moisture declines again Friday through
Sunday with storm chances going away. With this drier overall
pattern, afternoon minimum humidity levels will fall back into a 10
to 20 percent range, lower west of the Lower Colorado River Valley
with fair to good overnight recovery. Afternoon wind speeds will be
somewhat stronger than typical for early July, most noticeably on
Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/MO



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 AM MST MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will
significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday.
The lack of showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon
temperatures as well. A modest increase in moisture for the middle
of this week will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
and Thursday mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Another drier
and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 04/00Z upper-air plots show a
ridge parked over the general vicinity of northern Mexico,
specifically northern Chihuahua. On the northern flank of this
ridge, dry mid level air can be seen covering a large part of the
eastern Pacific waters, the southern half of California and into
parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

The 04/00Z KTWC sounding revealed a precipitable water value of 1.08
inches, which continues the downward trend in moisture from the past
few days. The U of A GPS Precipitable water value as of 0645Z was
just under 1 inch for Tucson. The CIRA LPW Total PW showed a value
of 0.8 inches as of 06Z. The bulk of the moisture is in a shallow
layer from around 625-700MB, with significantly drier air both above
and below this layer. In fact, surface dewpoints as of 09Z (2 AM
MST), ranged from the lower to upper 50s for most desert/valley
locations and these readings range from 1 to 9 degs cooler/drier
than 24 hours ago.

We saw very little convective activity yesterday, mostly over the
Chiricahua mountains of east central Cochise county, with some
sparks also over parts of northern Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest and west central New Mexico. Today should see even lesser
activity based on the continued drying of the airmass with models
indicating surface dewpoints expected to drop into the mid to upper
40s during the afternoon hours.

This trend will continue into Tuesday, although will continue to see
activity develop over the Sierra Madres of northern Mexico just to
the south of our border.

By Wednesday the ridge will have shifted to a position over the
southern plains and the return flow on the western flank of the
ridge will allow some moisture intrusion back into the area. That
said, looking at mostly mountains storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening and especially near the international border. This will
continue into Thursday before another drying trend commences late in
the week and into the weekend in response to the ridge becoming
re-established to our south with a dry westerly flow in place.

For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 1 to 3 degs above
normal today and Tuesday, then near normal for Wednesday through
Friday. Thereafter, highs generally 2 to 4 degs above normal. Low
temps will be several degs above normal each morning, but the
warmest mornings will occur Wednesday and Thursday when they will
range from 4 to 6 degs above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
High pressure aloft will result in drier conditions with mostly
clear skies. A few mountain cloud build-ups are expected this
afternoon as well as a few passing cirrus clouds. Winds will
generally be 10 kts or less and follow typical directional trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with little convection through
Tuesday. A brief push of moisture will bring some scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once
again into the foreseeable future. Winds will generally favor
diurnal patterns, with some enhancement in areas where afternoon
northwest flow is the norm. Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon
gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley locations through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 AM MST MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will
significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday.
The lack of showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon
temperatures as well. A modest increase in moisture for the middle
of this week will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
and Thursday mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Another drier
and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 04/00Z upper-air plots show a
ridge parked over the general vicinity of northern Mexico,
specifically northern Chihuahua. On the northern flank of this
ridge, dry mid level air can be seen covering a large part of the
eastern Pacific waters, the southern half of California and into
parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

The 04/00Z KTWC sounding revealed a precipitable water value of 1.08
inches, which continues the downward trend in moisture from the past
few days. The U of A GPS Precipitable water value as of 0645Z was
just under 1 inch for Tucson. The CIRA LPW Total PW showed a value
of 0.8 inches as of 06Z. The bulk of the moisture is in a shallow
layer from around 625-700MB, with significantly drier air both above
and below this layer. In fact, surface dewpoints as of 09Z (2 AM
MST), ranged from the lower to upper 50s for most desert/valley
locations and these readings range from 1 to 9 degs cooler/drier
than 24 hours ago.

We saw very little convective activity yesterday, mostly over the
Chiricahua mountains of east central Cochise county, with some
sparks also over parts of northern Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest and west central New Mexico. Today should see even lesser
activity based on the continued drying of the airmass with models
indicating surface dewpoints expected to drop into the mid to upper
40s during the afternoon hours.

This trend will continue into Tuesday, although will continue to see
activity develop over the Sierra Madres of northern Mexico just to
the south of our border.

By Wednesday the ridge will have shifted to a position over the
southern plains and the return flow on the western flank of the
ridge will allow some moisture intrusion back into the area. That
said, looking at mostly mountains storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening and especially near the international border. This will
continue into Thursday before another drying trend commences late in
the week and into the weekend in response to the ridge becoming
re-established to our south with a dry westerly flow in place.

For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 1 to 3 degs above
normal today and Tuesday, then near normal for Wednesday through
Friday. Thereafter, highs generally 2 to 4 degs above normal. Low
temps will be several degs above normal each morning, but the
warmest mornings will occur Wednesday and Thursday when they will
range from 4 to 6 degs above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
High pressure aloft will result in drier conditions with mostly
clear skies. A few mountain cloud build-ups are expected this
afternoon as well as a few passing cirrus clouds. Winds will
generally be 10 kts or less and follow typical directional trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with little convection through
Tuesday. A brief push of moisture will bring some scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once
again into the foreseeable future. Winds will generally favor
diurnal patterns, with some enhancement in areas where afternoon
northwest flow is the norm. Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon
gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley locations through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring drier
and warmer conditions through the week with only a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity has ended
across northeast Arizona tonight as a drier and more stable
airmass settles into the region. Only change to the forecast was
to remove the chance of precipitation for the remainder of the
overnight period.

Nice night in store with 50s to low 60s in the mountains with 60s
to upper 70s near 80 in the lower valley locations.

A drier and more stable airmass across northern Arizona will take
us through the remainder of the week.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...A few storms formed today near the
Utah border where moisture and instability profiles are a bit more
favorable. This will be short-lived as drier and more stable air
continues to move into the Southwest. After today, a regime of dry
westerly flow will develop over the region. Chances for showers
will be near zero through at least the next seven days, after
today.
&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isold SHRA/TSRA possible Monday from 18Z-02Z
over the White Mountains and Black Mesa. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as dry
westerly flow takes over across the area. Only a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms exists across the White Mountains Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...Dry weather
can be expected with afternoon relative humidity values generally
around 15 percent.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/Peterson
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...CLM


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring drier
and warmer conditions through the week with only a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity has ended
across northeast Arizona tonight as a drier and more stable
airmass settles into the region. Only change to the forecast was
to remove the chance of precipitation for the remainder of the
overnight period.

Nice night in store with 50s to low 60s in the mountains with 60s
to upper 70s near 80 in the lower valley locations.

A drier and more stable airmass across northern Arizona will take
us through the remainder of the week.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...A few storms formed today near the
Utah border where moisture and instability profiles are a bit more
favorable. This will be short-lived as drier and more stable air
continues to move into the Southwest. After today, a regime of dry
westerly flow will develop over the region. Chances for showers
will be near zero through at least the next seven days, after
today.
&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isold SHRA/TSRA possible Monday from 18Z-02Z
over the White Mountains and Black Mesa. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as dry
westerly flow takes over across the area. Only a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms exists across the White Mountains Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...Dry weather
can be expected with afternoon relative humidity values generally
around 15 percent.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/Peterson
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...CLM


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
915 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday to the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
and this next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of the week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return. Further
drying from the west is possible into the weekend with near average
temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It was another convectively down day on Sunday even though monsoon
moisture was detected across a large swath of central and southern
AZ, generally east of the Colorado River. Moisture was deepest from
Phoenix southward to just west of Tucson. It was not dry despite
what you saw on visible satellite imagery Sunday afternoon. It was
very stable aloft. Anticyclonic winds aloft, with significant
warming between the 11k and 14k foot level put a cap on the
convective potential. Not even one CB developed over the Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains, just lots of flat cumulus.

Modeled soundings for central and southern AZ on Monday show the
same profiles but even warmer at 500 mb.  Therefore another
convectively down day is expected Monday. Otherwise no weather
problems are expected tonight and Monday. Current forecasts were
written this way. No updates planned.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...236 PM MST...

Although the atmosphere over southern Arizona and far southeast
California is far from bone dry, the large-scale weather pattern
over the western states has shifted and we are now looking at a
respite from our typical daily monsoon thunderstorm activity.
Stronger westerly flow aloft has been setting up into the Pacific
northwest, shunting the upper high far to the south resulting in a
drying west to southwest flow aloft across Arizona. 12z 500mb plot
showed anticyclonic flow across the state while the area soundings
displayed deep general west flow aloft through the column. PWAT
values have fallen quite a bit with Phoenix reporting just 1.19
inches this morning. At 1 pm the surface dewpoints over the central
AZ deserts were mostly in the mid 50s but had fallen 3 to 9 degrees
over the past 24 hours. Early afternoon satellite imagery showed
some cumulus developing over south central AZ with pretty much sunny
skies west of Maricopa county, and there was little deep convection
developing over higher terrain areas over central or southeast
Arizona. Based on the morning Phoenix sounding, CAPE was minimal and
skinny and further drying in the low levels would pretty much
eliminate what CAPE was present. It is thus interesting to look at
the current SPC mesoanalysis graphic which showed 500-1000 j/kg of
MLCAPE over south-central AZ; this seems overdone and in any case
this CAPE was forecast to drop markedly as the afternoon wears on.
Based on the extremely unfavorable westerly steering flow and
anticyclonic flow aloft, there is little if any chance for desert
storms today and only a slight chance over higher terrain areas east
of Phoenix - mainly east of Globe.

During the early part of the week this pattern will continue as
troffing strengthens over the Pacific northwest and west/southwest
flow aloft over Arizona keeps thinning the moisture profile
resulting in mostly clear skies and little if any chance for storms -
even over southern Gila County. Due to the gradual drying of the air
mass and the considerable sunshine expected, high temp Monday and
Tuesday will climb slightly with hottest deserts reaching around 110
degrees both days.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A very stable airmass will continue to develop over the forecast
area through Monday. Surface winds will follow typical diurnal
patterns, light easterly in the morning, shifting to westerly about 8
to 12 knots during the afternoon and evening hours.  West winds are
still expected between 8 and 10 knots at Sky Harbor airport between
830 pm and 9 pm local time, the most probable time for firework
displays in Phoenix.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A dry and stable airmass will continue over the forecast area
through Monday evening. South to southwest winds will continue in
the 6 to 8 knot range, become 10 to 12 knots during the afternoon
along the Colorado River.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday: Stronger than usual early July southwest
flow across the region will result in slightly above normal
temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture
Wednesday and Thursday could lead to a few thunderstorms over higher
terrain of southern Gila and far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with
little to no chance of wetting rains elsewhere. Moisture declines
again Friday through Sunday with storm chances going away. With this
drier overall pattern, afternoon minimum humidity levels will fall
back into a 10 to 20 percent range...lower west of the Lower Colorado
River Valley...with fair to good overnight recovery. Afternoon wind
speeds will be somewhat stronger than typical for early July...most
noticeably on Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez/CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/MO




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will
significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday.
The lack of showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon
temperatures as well. A modest increase in moisture for the middle
of this week will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
and Thursday mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Another drier
and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We continue to lose moisture with the earlier mid
level drying now evident in lower levels of the atmosphere as
represented on the 00Z KTWC sounding. Precipitable water down to
around 1 inch. Surface dew points continue to fall as well, as
boundary layer moisture mixes out and is not replaced. Our current
lower to middle 50s will have room to mix down into the 40s
tomorrow.

Our current forecast has good trends as we pick up some moisture
from the south again around mid week with the ridge shifting from
a blocking position to nominally east of the area. It won`t be a
strong and deep flow, but probably better than our current
convection forecast is advertising. Otherwise, please see the
previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z. High pressure aloft will result in
drier conditions with mostly clear skies. A few mountain cloud
build-ups are expected again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with little convection through
Tuesday. A brief push of moisture will bring some scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once
again. Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some
enhancement in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm.
Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20
mph in valley locations through Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Any storms should quickly fade around sunset
with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. It will be even more
of a struggle Monday and Tuesday to get much more than some
cumulus build-ups in these same higher terrain areas as high
pressure aloft remains centered just to our south east. With the
drier air, temperatures will be near seasonal normals the next few
days.

By Wednesday and Thursday a return flow of moisture around the high
pressure which will then be located near the Big Bend of Texas will
try to bring some increased moisture to the area. Latest
NAM/SREF/GEFS have backed off a bit with the moisture and thus
northward push of the moisture as the flow remains a bit more
southwesterly. The deterministic GFS is the most aggressive with the
moisture push north and west. Have made some minor tweaks to the
PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday with the best chance of storms being
south and east of Tucson. The moisture increase Wednesday and
Thursday will be short lived as westerly flow aloft returns by
Friday as any remaining chances of storms on Friday will be in the
southeast portions of the forecast area. Dry weather is expected
next weekend. Expect a few degrees of cooling Wednesday and Thursday
with temperatures starting to warm back up Friday and next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Meyer/GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will
significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday.
The lack of showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon
temperatures as well. A modest increase in moisture for the middle
of this week will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
and Thursday mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Another drier
and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We continue to lose moisture with the earlier mid
level drying now evident in lower levels of the atmosphere as
represented on the 00Z KTWC sounding. Precipitable water down to
around 1 inch. Surface dew points continue to fall as well, as
boundary layer moisture mixes out and is not replaced. Our current
lower to middle 50s will have room to mix down into the 40s
tomorrow.

Our current forecast has good trends as we pick up some moisture
from the south again around mid week with the ridge shifting from
a blocking position to nominally east of the area. It won`t be a
strong and deep flow, but probably better than our current
convection forecast is advertising. Otherwise, please see the
previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z. High pressure aloft will result in
drier conditions with mostly clear skies. A few mountain cloud
build-ups are expected again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with little convection through
Tuesday. A brief push of moisture will bring some scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once
again. Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some
enhancement in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm.
Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20
mph in valley locations through Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Any storms should quickly fade around sunset
with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. It will be even more
of a struggle Monday and Tuesday to get much more than some
cumulus build-ups in these same higher terrain areas as high
pressure aloft remains centered just to our south east. With the
drier air, temperatures will be near seasonal normals the next few
days.

By Wednesday and Thursday a return flow of moisture around the high
pressure which will then be located near the Big Bend of Texas will
try to bring some increased moisture to the area. Latest
NAM/SREF/GEFS have backed off a bit with the moisture and thus
northward push of the moisture as the flow remains a bit more
southwesterly. The deterministic GFS is the most aggressive with the
moisture push north and west. Have made some minor tweaks to the
PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday with the best chance of storms being
south and east of Tucson. The moisture increase Wednesday and
Thursday will be short lived as westerly flow aloft returns by
Friday as any remaining chances of storms on Friday will be in the
southeast portions of the forecast area. Dry weather is expected
next weekend. Expect a few degrees of cooling Wednesday and Thursday
with temperatures starting to warm back up Friday and next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Meyer/GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST SUN JUL 03 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring
drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few storms formed today near the Utah border
where moisture and instability profiles are a bit more favorable.
This will be short-lived as drier and more stable air continues to
move into the Southwest. After today, a regime of dry westerly flow
will develop over the region. Chances for showers will be near zero
through at least the next seven days, after today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible Monday from 18Z-
02Z over the White Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as dry
westerly flow takes over across the area. Only a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms exists across the White Mountains Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...Dry weather
can be expected with afternoon relative humidity values generally
around 15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mottice
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST SUN JUL 03 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring
drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few storms formed today near the Utah border
where moisture and instability profiles are a bit more favorable.
This will be short-lived as drier and more stable air continues to
move into the Southwest. After today, a regime of dry westerly flow
will develop over the region. Chances for showers will be near zero
through at least the next seven days, after today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible Monday from 18Z-
02Z over the White Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as dry
westerly flow takes over across the area. Only a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms exists across the White Mountains Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms
exists each day across the White Mountains. Elsewhere...Dry weather
can be expected with afternoon relative humidity values generally
around 15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mottice
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
236 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather sections.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday to the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
and this next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of the week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return. Further
drying from the west is possible into the weekend with near average
temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although the atmosphere over southern Arizona and far southeast
California is far from bone dry, the large-scale weather pattern
over the western states has shifted and we are now looking at a
respite from our typical daily monsoon thunderstorm activity.
Stronger westerly flow aloft has been setting up into the Pacific
northwest, shunting the upper high far to the south resulting in a
drying west to southwest flow aloft across Arizona. 12z 500mb plot
showed anticyclonic flow across the state while the area soundings
displayed deep general west flow aloft through the column. PWAT
values have fallen quite a bit with Phoenix reporting just 1.19
inches this morning. At 1 pm the surface dewpoints over the central
AZ deserts were mostly in the mid 50s but had fallen 3 to 9 degrees
over the past 24 hours. Early afternoon satellite imagery showed
some cumulus developing over south central AZ with pretty much sunny
skies west of Maricopa county, and there was little deep convection
developing over higher terrain areas over central or southeast
Arizona. Based on the morning Phoenix sounding, CAPE was minimal and
skinny and further drying in the low levels would pretty much
eliminate what CAPE was present. It is thus interesting to look at
the current SPC mesoanalysis graphic which showed 500-1000 j/kg of
MLCAPE over south-central AZ; this seems overdone and in any case
this CAPE was forecast to drop markedly as the afternoon wears on.
Based on the extremely unfavorable westerly steering flow and
anticyclonic flow aloft, there is little if any chance for desert
storms today and only a slight chance over higher terrain areas east
of Phoenix - mainly east of Globe.

During the early part of the week this pattern will continue as
troffing strengthens over the Pacific northwest and west/southwest
flow aloft over Arizona keeps thinning the moisture profile
resulting in mostly clear skies and little if any chance for storms -
even over southern Gila County. Due to the gradual drying of the air
mass and the considerable sunshine expected, high temp Monday and
Tuesday will climb slightly with hottest deserts reaching around 110
degrees both days.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Some cumulus and altocumulus can be expected the rest of the
afternoon into the evening...towering cumulus over the higher terrain
north and east of Phoenix metro. Westerly surface winds will
predominate through at least 06Z over Phoenix metro...lingering past
07Z at PHX. Expect a repeat Monday with a bit stronger speeds in the
afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Clear skies through Monday. Surface winds will favor southerly
directions through Monday. An exception will be downvalley winds at
night east of the Lower Colorado River Valley. This will be
especially true west of the Imperial Valley near the mountains with
local gusts in the evening of 25-30 kts.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday: Stronger than usual early July southwest
flow across the region will result in slightly above normal
temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture
Wednesday and Thursday could lead to a few thunderstorms over higher
terrain of southern Gila and far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with
little to no chance of wetting rains elsewhere. Moisture declines
again Friday through Sunday with storm chances going away. With this
drier overall pattern, afternoon minimum humidity levels will fall
back into a 10 to 20 percent range...lower west of the Lower Colorado
River Valley...with fair to good overnight recovery. Afternoon wind
speeds will be somewhat stronger than typical for early July...most
noticeably on Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/MO




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
140 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday to the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
and this next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of the week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return. Further
drying from the west is possible into the weekend with near average
temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Although the atmosphere over southern Arizona and far southeast
California is far from bone dry, the large-scale weather pattern
over the western states has shifted and we are now looking at a
respite from our typical daily monsoon thunderstorm activity.
Stronger westerly flow aloft has been setting up into the Pacific
northwest, shunting the upper high far to the south resulting in a
drying west to southwest flow aloft across Arizona. 12z 500mb plot
showed anticyclonic flow across the state while the area soundings
displayed deep general west flow aloft through the column. PWAT
values have fallen quite a bit with Phoenix reporting just 1.19
inches this morning. At 1 pm the surface dewpoints over the central
AZ deserts were mostly in the mid 50s but had fallen 3 to 9 degrees
over the past 24 hours. Early afternoon satellite imagery showed
some cumulus developing over south central AZ with pretty much sunny
skies west of Maricopa county, and there was little deep convection
developing over higher terrain areas over central or southeast
Arizona. Based on the morning Phoenix sounding, CAPE was minimal and
skinny and further drying in the low levels would pretty much
eliminate what CAPE was present. It is thus interesting to look at
the current SPC mesoanalysis graphic which showed 500-1000 j/kg of
MLCAPE over south-central AZ; this seems overdone and in any case
this CAPE was forecast to drop markedly as the afternoon wears on.
Based on the extremely unfavorable westerly steering flow and
anticyclonic flow aloft, there is little if any chance for desert
storms today and only a slight chance over higher terrain areas east
of Phoenix - mainly east of Globe.

During the early part of the week this pattern will continue as
troffing strengthens over the Pacific northwest and west/southwest
flow aloft over Arizona keeps thinning the moisture profile
resulting in mostly clear skies and little if any chance for storms -
even over southern Gila County. Due to the gradual drying of the air
mass and the considerable sunshine expected, high temp Monday and
Tuesday will climb slightly with hottest deserts reaching around 110
degrees both days.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is good that wind shifts/transition to an easterly
component overnight will occur later than typical, and similarly the
afternoon switch back to a westerly direction will occur earlier
than usual.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under clear skies. Sfc
winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction, though
some periods yielding a light and variable direction will be
possible towards sunrise.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. With this drier pattern, afternoon minimum
humidity levels will fall back into a 10 to 20 percent range with
fair to good overnight recovery. Wind speeds will be somewhat
stronger than typical for early July with more frequent afternoon
gusts especially around higher terrain features.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry air mass with westerly flow aloft will
significantly limit the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday.
The lack of showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon
temperatures as well. A modest increase in moisture for the middle
of this week will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
and Thursday mainly from Tucson south and eastward. Another drier
and warmer pattern moves in for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very quiet early July afternoon compared to what
we`ve seen over the past week or so as cumulus cloud build-ups are
generally near the higher terrain. This is due to ridging aloft just
south of the region and a drier airmass as surface dewpoints have
now dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s.  A couple of
thunderstorms have formed off the Chiricahua mountains in the past
hour or so and we`ll have a few more storms form off the mountains
of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties this afternoon then drifting
briefly into the adjacent lower elevations. Any storms should
quickly fade around sunset with skies becoming mostly clear
overnight.  It will be even more of a struggle Monday and Tuesday to
get much more than some cumulus build-ups in these same higher
terrain areas as high pressure aloft remains centered just to our
south east. With the drier air, temperatures will be near seasonal
normals the next few days.

By Wednesday and Thursday a return flow of moisture around the high
pressure which will then be located near the Big Bend of Texas will
try to bring some increased moisture to the area. Latest
NAM/SREF/GEFS have backed off a bit with the moisture and thus
northward push of the moisture as the flow remains a bit more
southwesterly. The deterministic GFS is the most aggressive with the
moisture push north and west. Have made some minor tweaks to the
PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday with the best chance of storms being
south and east of Tucson. The moisture increase Wednesday and
Thursday will be short lived as westerly flow aloft returns by
Friday as any remaining chances of storms on Friday will be in the
southeast portions of the forecast area. Dry weather is expected
next weekend. Expect a few degrees of cooling Wednesday and Thursday
with temperatures starting to warm back up Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
High pressure aloft will result in drier conditions with mostly
clear skies for the terminals and partly cloudy skies for the
mountains through sunset. A slight chc of SHRA/TSRA is possible
mainly for the mountains through about 04/03Z, then skies becoming
mostly clear overnight. A few mountain cloud build-ups are expected
again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with little convection through
Tuesday. A brief push of moisture will bring some scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once
again. Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some
enhancement in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm.
Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20
mph in valley locations through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST SUN JUL 03 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across the southwest will bring
drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly fair weather cumulus expected today as drier
and more stable air begins to move into the southwest. Just enough
remnant moisture and instability remains today for a few showers to
develop. After today, a long loved regime of dry westerly flow will
develop over the region. Chances for showers will be near zero
through at least the next seven days, after today.

Zones/grids look good, no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z mainly
over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns northward.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mottice
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
832 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday. The lack of
showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures
as well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest wv imagery and upper air plots indicate mid and
upper level ridging just to our south with generally westerly flow
aloft. Still some decent moisture in the boundary layer below about
650 mb and very dry above. Precipitable water off the 12z KTWC
sounding came in at 1.26 inches. As boundary layer moisture
continues to decrease, moisture will be very limited to generate
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but can`t rule out slight
chances in the higher terrain over Cochise and Santa Cruz counties
along with the White Mountains. It will be even more of a struggle
Monday and Tuesday to get much more than some cumulus build-ups in
these same higher terrain areas with high pressure aloft centered
just to our south east. With the drier air, temperatures will be
near seasonal normals the next few days.

By Wednesday and Thursday a return flow of moisture around the high
pressure which will then be located near the Big Bend of Texas will
bring chances of showers and thunderstorms back to much of Southeast
Arizona. However, this will be short lived as westerly flow aloft
returns by Friday and continues next weekend with a drier pattern
returning. Expect a few degrees of cooling Wednesday through Friday
then warming back up next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
High pressure building in from west to east will bring more stable
conditions and mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be less than
10 kts through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected to start the new
week with little if any convection today through Tuesday. A brief
surge of moisture will bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once again.
Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some enhancement
in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm. Portions of
zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley
locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
815 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities
return. Further drying from the west is possible into next weekend
with near average temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning plot data as well as sounding data showed upper
ridging in place across Arizona with a deep profile of westerly flow
aloft through most of the atmosphere. PWAT values at Phoenix had
dropped to 1.19 inches and there was little if any CAPE present in
the sounding; additional drying in the profile will eliminate what
skinny CAPE is currently present. Surface dewpoints over the central
deserts were down 6-12 degrees from 24 hours ago and were mostly in
the mid to upper 50s at 8 am. IR imagery this morning showed
basically clear skies area-wide with just a few patches of mid cloud
forming to the southwest of Phoenix. Current SPC mesoanalysis
graphics showed just a few hundred j/kg of MLCAPE over the central
deserts and forecast over 1000 j/kg by early afternoon which seems a
bit excessive as latest NAM run only calls for aorund 300-400 j/kg
this afternoon. Given the persistent strong westerly flow aloft that
will be present this afternoon and tendency to mix down drier air to
the surface, expect that if any storms develop they will be over the
mountains to the east of Phoenix and only some aternoon cumulus will
develop over the deserts. Current forecasts have this covered and
look to be in good shape. No updates are planned attm.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Building anticyclonic heights noted over the region both in the
evening RAOBs as well as long-framed regional radar loops, with
returns almost oriented on a northward moving concave arc from
Barstow, CA through the AZ White Mountains. Westerly mean and UL
flow has returned, with storm tops quickly being lofted
northeastward on this evening`s stronger storms. The SE CA and AZ
Lower Deserts will be in for several quiet days as several strong
Pacific troughs transition through the West Coast and Intermountain
West. Water vapor imagery overnight depicts three such trough
circulations landfalling or moving towards the West Coast. The
southern most is significantly dry through the mid and upper levels
over the L.A. Basin. Unseasonably strong westerly flow noted 500mb
and above, with a 50-55kt 300mb jet skirting across northern AZ later
tonight and into Monday, tied to the southern most shortwave. Loss of
our moisture advecting wind profile will allow for some thinning of
PWATs and LL dewpoints with daytime mixing, drawing them out of the
MMB richness. Resulting PoP forecasts save for some lingering PoPs on
the Rim for today, are well below climo and have nil chances for the
lower deserts and non-zero but still non-weather mentionable values
for the Zone 24/Southern Gila mountains. Under clear skies and fairly
typical winds, temperatures will settle out within range of early
July normals, 107F for Phoenix and Yuma both today and Monday. Subtle
variances in 1000-500mb thicknesses and a peak of 850mb temperatures
on Tuesday could support temperatures near 110F for the warmer
deserts, likely the warmest day but staying below excessive heat
thresholds.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is good that wind shifts/transition to an easterly
component overnight will occur later than typical, and similarly the
afternoon switch back to a westerly direction will occur earlier
than usual.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under clear skies. Sfc
winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction, though
some periods yielding a light and variable direction will be
possible towards sunrise.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. With this drier pattern, afternoon minimum
humidity levels will fall back into a 10 to 20 percent range with
fair to good overnight recovery. Wind speeds will be somewhat
stronger than typical for early July with more frequent afternoon
gusts especially around higher terrain features.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities
return. Further drying from the west is possible into next weekend
with near average temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Building anticyclonic heights noted over the region both in the
evening RAOBs as well as long-framed regional radar loops, with
returns almost oriented on a northward moving concave arc from
Barstow, CA through the AZ White Mountains. Westerly mean and UL
flow has returned, with storm tops quickly being lofted
northeastward on this evening`s stronger storms. The SE CA and AZ
Lower Deserts will be in for several quiet days as several strong
Pacific troughs transition through the West Coast and Intermountain
West. Water vapor imagery overnight depicts three such trough
circulations landfalling or moving towards the West Coast. The
southern most is significantly dry through the mid and upper levels
over the L.A. Basin. Unseasonably strong westerly flow noted 500mb
and above, with a 50-55kt 300mb jet skirting across northern AZ later
tonight and into Monday, tied to the southern most shortwave. Loss of
our moisture advecting wind profile will allow for some thinning of
PWATs and LL dewpoints with daytime mixing, drawing them out of the
MMB richness. Resulting PoP forecasts save for some lingering PoPs on
the Rim for today, are well below climo and have nil chances for the
lower deserts and non-zero but still non-weather mentionable values
for the Zone 24/Southern Gila mountains. Under clear skies and fairly
typical winds, temperatures will settle out within range of early
July normals, 107F for Phoenix and Yuma both today and Monday. Subtle
variances in 1000-500mb thicknesses and a peak of 850mb temperatures
on Tuesday could support temperatures near 110F for the warmer
deserts, likely the warmest day but staying below excessive heat
thresholds.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out, ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under mostly clear skies.
Confidence is good that wind shifts/transition to an easterly
component overnight will occur later than typical, and similarly the
afternoon switch back to a westerly direction will occur earlier
than usual.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through Monday morning under clear skies. Sfc
winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction, though
some periods yielding a light and variable direction will be
possible towards sunrise.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Stronger than usual early July southwest flow across the region will
result in slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. An increase in moisture Wednesday and Thursday could
lead to a few thunderstorms over higher terrain of southern Gila and
far eastern Maricopa/Pinal counties with little to no chance of
wetting rains elsewhere. With this drier pattern, afternoon minimum
humidity levels will fall back into a 10 to 20 percent range with
fair to good overnight recovery. Wind speeds will be somewhat
stronger than typical for early July with more frequent afternoon
gusts especially around higher terrain features.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drying westerly flow is going to take shape over the next
several days across northern Arizona. Precipitation chances will
generally be reduced to `slight` today, with chances confined to
the higher terrain of eastern AZ for Independence Day. Breezy
afternoons will take shape mid-week as well, with winds out of the
west-southwest. Warmer daytime temps can also be anticipated.
While slight chances for showers may return at times during the
coming week, the pattern looks typical for an extended monsoon
break through much of the 7-day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible 18Z-02Z
mainly over the higher terrain from Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona
today and Monday. Any isolated storms that develop today will move
from west to east.

Tuesday through Thursday...Westerly flow brings mainly dry
conditions with breezy afternoons. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
206 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities
return. Further drying from the west is possible into next weekend
with near average temperatures and mostly clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Building anticyclonic heights noted over the region both in the
evening RAOBs as well as long-framed regional radar loops, with
returns almost oriented on a northward moving concave arc from
Barstow, CA through the AZ White Mountains. Westerly mean and UL
flow has returned, with storm tops quickly being lofted
northeastward on this evening`s stronger storms. The SE CA and AZ
Lower Deserts will be in for several quiet days as several strong
Pacific troughs transition through the West Coast and Intermountain
West. Water vapor imagery overnight depicts three such trough
circulations landfalling or moving towards the West Coast. The
southern most is significantly dry through the mid and upper levels
over the L.A. Basin. Unseasonably strong westerly flow noted 500mb
and above, with a 50-55kt 300mb jet skirting across northern AZ later
tonight and into Monday, tied to the southern most shortwave. Loss of
our moisture advecting wind profile will allow for some thinning of
PWATs and LL dewpoints with daytime mixing, drawing them out of the
MMB richness. Resulting PoP forecasts save for some lingering PoPs on
the Rim for today, are well below climo and have nil chances for the
lower deserts and non-zero but still non-weather mentionable values
for the Zone 24/Southern Gila mountains. Under clear skies and fairly
typical winds, temperatures will settle out within range of early
July normals, 107F for Phoenix and Yuma both today and Monday. Subtle
variances in 1000-500mb thicknesses and a peak of 850mb temperatures
on Tuesday could support temperatures near 110F for the warmer
deserts, likely the warmest day but staying below excessive heat
thresholds.

More noticeable spread enters the temperature forecasts for Wednesday
and beyond, especially the morning lows, tied to the depth and
persistence of a mid-week moisture intrusion from the south. Up until
this point, the ML/UL high centers remained to our southeast over
Mexico. GFS model trends with the intrusion have been a bit drier the
last few nights, while the ECMWF remains a higher on the 850mb Td
fields for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast streamlines through the
column struggle to take up anything with an easterly influence, with
850-700mb winds turning southerly for 24 hr window or so. While it`s
still a ways out...ample moisture over the Sierra Madre and inverted
wave movement along the Mexican Riviera and Baja Peninsula could
trigger some larger storm complexes that send outflow intrusions
northward, rather than our depending on easterly to southeasterly
advection flow. Resulting temperatures forecasts are rather steady
state and near seasonal normals, but any moisture insulation could
shave a few degrees off the limits on the diurnal range, more likely
for locations east of the CO River Valley. Slight storm chances enter
into SE AZ, the White Mtns and the Rim for Wednesday and some of the
mountainous locations of southern Gila county for Thursday afternoon.
With still modest westerly flow progged through the majority of the
column, conditions are not looking favorable for outflow intrusions
to make their way onto the desert floors at this time. Longwave
troughing remains over the West Coast for late this week and the
coming weekend with the potential for further dry advection from the
west. Zonal heights aloft over the Southwest should result in near
average temperatures, dry conditions for nearly all forecast locales
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into the
greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Therefore mostly clear
skies are forecast. Surface winds will be light easterly, becoming
west during the afternoons and evening generally under 10 knots.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into
the greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies
are forecast, with steady south winds 8 to 15 knots.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of thunderstorms through Tuesday. The lack of
showers and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures
as well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 03/00Z upper-air plots show
nearly zonal flow across the Desert Southwest as Arizona lies
between high pressure over southern Chihuahua Mexico and a low
pressure system over central California. Plenty of dry mid level air
across the eastern Pacific waters and extending across northern
Baja, northwest Sonora Mexico and the southern two thirds of Arizona
and into New Mexico. The 03/00Z KTWC sounding showed significant
drying in the past 48 hours or so, with a PW of 1.2 inches compared
to 1.77 inches from Thursday afternoon. The 06Z GPS PW values from
the U of A indicate around 1.2 inches and the CIRA LPW total
indicates 1.1 inches. IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across much of Arizona at this time, with the exception being some
mid level clouds over eastern Sonora and northwest Chihuahua that
have spilled over into extreme southern Cochise county and parts
of Santa Cruz county.

As of 08Z (1 AM MST), temperatures ranged from the lower 70s to the
lower 80s which are generally around 5 to 8 degs warmer than 24
hours ago. Dewpoint temperatures range from the lower 50s to the mid
60s and these values range from 1 to 5 degs cooler/drier than 24
hours ago. As a result, relative humidity values range from 15 to 30
percent drier than this time yesterday.

Models indicate that the ridge to our south and west will build a
bit farther north and east today, becoming nearly overhead. This
will result in warmer afternoon temperatures through Tuesday as the
high remains in the same general area through that time. In
addition, expect a reduction in the threat for showers and
thunderstorms as well. Limited activity may occur today and Monday,
mostly over the White mountains and perhaps isolated activity over
southern parts of Cochise county on Tuesday. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday models indicate that return flow on the western flank of
the ridge will allow for an increase in moisture with PW`s generally
ranging from around 0.75-1.0 inches through Tuesday before climbing
back up to around 1.0-1.3 inches through early Thursday. Values will
then decrease again late in the week and into the weekend as drier
air gets ushered in from the west in response to an approaching
trough well to our northwest and north. This will once again result
in increasing daytime temperatures after a brief respite on
Wednesday and Thursday due to increasing moisture and the threat of
convection moderating temperatures a bit.

For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degs below
normal today, then will hover within a degree or two either side of
normal for Monday through Friday. For next weekend, highs a few
degrees above normal. Low temperatures will range from 2 to 5 degs
above normal each morning, although the warmest mornings will occur
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
High pressure building in from west to east will bring more stable
conditions and mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be less than
10 kts through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected to start the new
week with little if any convection today through Tuesday. A brief
surge of moisture will bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday then we will dry out once again.
Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some enhancement
in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm. Portions of
zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley
locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
921 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will
bring drier and warmer conditions to the area heading into next
week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...The forecast was updated for the overnight time
period. The chance of precipitation was lowered to only isolated
showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties
through midnight...then mainly dry after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM MST/...A somewhat linear convective
feature formed this afternoon along a convergence zone formed in
the wake of last nights outflow and a developing s/wv ridge to our
west. This feature is nearly aligned along the I-40 corridor,
which is problematic for travelers this afternoon.

After this evening, drier mid-level air and anticyclonic flow is
evident to our west on water vapor imagery. Additionally, warmer
temperatures aloft will develop through at least Monday with this
s/wv ridge.

At the same time, long wave troughing develops over the northwest
United States, providing a prolonged period of drier and stable
flow over the southwest. A brief intrusion of monsoon moisture may
return Wednesday or Thursday, but then right back to dry
westerlies heading into next weekend.

The net result is a period of mainly dry and warmer conditions
after today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions with a few
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday after 18Z mainly over the
mountain areas of the Mogollon Rim and Chuska Mountains. Shower
activity will diminish around 02Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier and more stable westerly flow will bring
decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to northern Arizona.
Storm motion on Sunday will be from the west to the east.

Tuesday through thursday...Only daytime and isolated storms are
expected across ponderosa forests through the period as dry westerly
flow increases across the area. Elsewhere very dry with afternoon
minimum humidities belwo 15 percent.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/Peterson
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
830 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtle drying, transitioning in from the west will relegate the best
chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes
drier. Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week,
save for a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in
humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Anti-cyclonic mid/upper level flow, following the passing trof
yesterday/overnight stabilized the airmass in our forecast area
today. There were no aftn tstms, only stable cumulus clouds.
Additionally, upper air data showed the airmass had dried noticeably
from the west today, with the monsoon moisture boundary now
pushed into southeast AZ.

Anti-cyclonic winds aloft tomorrow and Monday, with unseasonably
warm mid level temperatures and additional moisture loss, should
provide dry and warmer weather over most of the forecast area.
Current dry and warmer forecasts look good. no updates planned.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...135 PM MST...

Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread
into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake
of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints at 1 PM were still elevated and mostly ranged from
the mid 50s to low 60s, although they were trending downward and
were running 2 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Despite
elevated moisture, the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon will
pretty much be confined to higher terrain areas east of Phoenix;
upper streamlines this afternoon will be slightly anticyclonic and
laminar with no significant deformation/difluence. With minimal upper
support we can expect some cumulus over the deserts - and we can see
that developing already on visible imagery - but that will be about
it convectively speaking. Early afternoon SPC mesoanalysis graphics
depicted CAPE over 1000 j/kg over the central deserts, but there was
a marked drying trend forecast with CAPE dropping noticeably from the
west as the afternoon progresses.

More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop as the ML/UL high
centers remain to our southeast over Mexico on Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to normal
through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and
a return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into the
greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Therefore mostly clear
skies are forecast. Surface winds will be light easterly, becoming
west during the afternoons and evening generally under 10 knots.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A drier and more stable atmosphere is forecast to move into
the greater Phoenix area through Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies
are forecast, with steady south winds 8 to 15 knots.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez/CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
821 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of convection through Monday. The lack of showers
and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures as
well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will increase
the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.


&&

.DISCUSSION...We have dried quite a bit in the past 36 hours,
with precipitable water values down to around 1 to 1.2 inches
across the area, and surface dew points generally in the 50s
(down 6 to 12 degrees over the past 24 hours). Even with the
drying trend, good instability allowed for several strong
thunderstorms southwest through southeast of Tucson over the past
few hours. With sunset things are quieting down.

The current forecast looks good with the downward trend in storms
to start the week. As this happens, we will heat back up to near
or above typical early July averages. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
High pressure building in from west to east on the back side of a
mid-level trough will bring more stable conditions to start the
new week. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts with VFR
conditions throughout. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected to start the new
week. Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some
enhancement in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm.
Portions of zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20
mph in valley locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The drying trend will continue Sunday and
Monday as the ridge of high pressure aloft over Sonora and
Chihuahua shunts the deep moisture to our south and east with most
areas remaining dry. About the best we can hope for is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the White
Mountains both days with the rest of the forecast area remaining
dry. Given the drier atmosphere, temperatures will will warm back
up to normal values by Monday and Tuesday. The ridge axis will be
far enough east on Tuesday to start a southerly flow of moisture
into far southeast Arizona. Thus, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the higher terrain and
international border area across Cochise County. The northward
push of moisture over the rest of the region is expected Wednesday
and Thursday with a more typical early July monsoon pattern then
before drier westerly flow returns for the end of the work week
and into next weekend as the mid/upper high pushes south of the
area again.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Lader/Cantin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 PM MST SAT JUL 02 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather into this evening. By
Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring drier and
warmer conditions to the area heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A somewhat linear convective feature formed this
afternoon along a convergence zone formed in the wake of last nights
outflow and a developing s/wv ridge to our west. This feature is
nearly aligned along the I-40 corridor, which is problematic for
travelers this afternoon.

After this evening, drier mid-level air and anticyclonic flow is
evident to our west on water vapor imagery. Additionally, warmer
temperatures aloft will develop through at least Monday with this
s/wv ridge.

At the same time, long wave troughing develops over the northwest
United States, providing a prolonged period of drier and stable flow
over the southwest. A brief intrusion of monsoon moisture may return
Wednesday or Thursday, but then right back to dry westerlies
heading into next weekend.

The net result is a period of mainly dry and warmer conditions after
today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...until 03z Sun expect scattered
shra/tsra and isold +tsra along and north of the Mogollon Rim and
isolated coverage elsewhere. Strongest storms will contain mvfr/ifr
conditions and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms ending aft 03z
Sun. Aft 18z Sun isolated thunderstorm coverage for areas above 6500
feet with fair wx elsewhere. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For Sunday and Monday, a drier and more stable
westerly flow will bring decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage
to northern Arizona. Storm motion on Sunday will be from the west to
the east.

Tuesday through thursday...Only daytime and isolated storms are
expected across ponderosa forests through the period as dry westerly
flow increases across the area. Elsewhere very dry with afternoon
minimum humidities below 15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of convection through Monday. The lack of showers
and cloud cover will allow for higher afternoon temperatures as
well. An increase in moisture the middle of next week will increase
the chances of showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The atmosphere is starting to dry out with GPS pwat
values down to 1 inch to 1.25 inches across southeast Arizona as
ridging builds in and drier air aloft is mixing down. There were a
few showers and thunderstorms briefly this morning that formed along
the higher terrain southeast of Tucson but those quickly faded away
as they moved off the mountains with just a few light showers
redeveloping in the last half hour. One shower did pass over Sierra
Vista with one gauge recorded a half inch this morning. Have trended
pops downward this afternoon but will still depict a slight chance
of a shower or thunderstorm south and east of Tucson into early this
evening.

The drying trend will continue Sunday and Monday as the ridge of
high pressure aloft over Sonora and Chihuahua shunts the deep
moisture to our south and east with most areas remaining dry. About
the best we can hope for is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the White Mountains both days with the
rest of the forecast area remaining dry. Given the drier atmosphere,
temperatures will will warm back up to normal values by Monday and
Tuesday. The ridge axis will be far enough east on Tuesday to start
a southerly flow of moisture into far southeast Arizona. Thus,
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible for the
higher terrain and international border area across Cochise County.
The northward push of moisture over the rest of the region is
expected Wednesday and Thursday with a more typical early July
monsoon pattern then before drier westerly flow returns for the end
of the work week and into next weekend as the mid/upper high pushes
south of the area again.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
High pressure building in from west to east on the back side of a
mid-level trough will bring stable conditions this afternoon into
early next week. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts with VFR
conditions throughout. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drying trend is expected through early next week.
Winds will generally favor diurnal patterns, with some enhancement
in areas where afternoon northwest flow is the norm. Portions of
zone 152 could see afternoon gustiness greater than 20 mph in valley
locations Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

Public...GL
Aviation/Fire Weather...Cantin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
135 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms through this evening over higher terrain
areas east of Phoenix. Subtle drying transitioning in from the west
will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms
Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, mainly east of
Globe. High temperatures will steadily climb into the weekend and
early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of next week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread
into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake
of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints at 1 PM were still elevated and mostly ranged from
the mid 50s to low 60s, although they were trending downward and
were running 2 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Despite
elevated moisture, the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon will
pretty much be confined to higher terrain areas east of Phoenix;
upper streamlines this afternoon will be slightly anticyclonic and
laminar with no significant deformation/difluence. With minimal upper
support we can expect some cumulus over the deserts - and we can see
that developing already on visible imagery - but that will be about
it convectively speaking. Early afternoon SPC mesoanalysis graphics
depicted CAPE over 1000 j/kg over the central deserts, but there was
a marked drying trend forecast with CAPE dropping noticeably from the
west as the afternoon progresses.

More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop as the ML/UL high
centers remain to our southeast over Mexico on Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to normal
through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and
a return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
135 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms through this evening over higher terrain
areas east of Phoenix. Subtle drying transitioning in from the west
will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms
Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, mainly east of
Globe. High temperatures will steadily climb into the weekend and
early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier. Dry and warm
conditions will last through much of next week, save for a period in
the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread
into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake
of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Surface dewpoints at 1 PM were still elevated and mostly ranged from
the mid 50s to low 60s, although they were trending downward and
were running 2 to 9 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Despite
elevated moisture, the threat for thunderstorms this afternoon will
pretty much be confined to higher terrain areas east of Phoenix;
upper streamlines this afternoon will be slightly anticyclonic and
laminar with no significant deformation/difluence. With minimal upper
support we can expect some cumulus over the deserts - and we can see
that developing already on visible imagery - but that will be about
it convectively speaking. Early afternoon SPC mesoanalysis graphics
depicted CAPE over 1000 j/kg over the central deserts, but there was
a marked drying trend forecast with CAPE dropping noticeably from the
west as the afternoon progresses.

More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop as the ML/UL high
centers remain to our southeast over Mexico on Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to normal
through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and
a return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB/Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1249 PM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.UPDATE...Updated Fire Weather Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms early today from Phoenix eastward. Subtle
drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances
for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9 am this morning, MCS associated with a passing short wave
continued to dissipate as it passed by to the northeast of Phoenix,
mostly grazing the border of our far eastern CWA as a few
showers/storms moved past Roosevelt and to the north of Globe. IR
imagery showed sunny skies from Phoenix west, and the 12z 500mb plot
indicated pronounced anticyclonic curvature over western AZ/SERN CA
behind the exiting trof. Of course, low level moisture over south
central AZ remains elevated this morning, with 1.57 inches of PWAT
at Phoenix and central desert dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, we look to be moving into a drying phase of the monsoon
starting today and heading into the first part of next week as
westerly flow aloft and deeper westerly steering flow looks to
dominate the weather pattern for Arizona. For the rest of today we
should see mostly sunny skies west of Phoenix with some afternoon
cumulus in the area, and we will see a continued chance of afternoon
storms over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix, although any
storm that forms will head off quickly towards the east/northeast.
Rain chances in the Phoenix area will be slim this afternoon, around
10 percent at best and most areas mostly likely will not see any
convection. West/southwest steering flow is always very detrimental
to storm chances in the greater Phoenix area and with ridging moving
in from the west, chances are even slimmer than normal. Current
forecasts look to be in good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Monsoon 2016 is off to an interesting start. Outside of our
exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which
themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales),
an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion,
record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more
typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen
as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off!

Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still
noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few
ACARS soundings. Satellite derived winds and ACARS soundings indicate
anticyclonic flow is beginning to transition further up through the
atmo profile over portions of the southern CO River Valley. UL
divergence and still rich Monsoonal moisture surface (PWAT axis of
values 1.5 inches or greater extends from Vegas southeastward through
portions of Maricopa County) remains, where thunderstorm activity
continues overnight and is lighting up area radar scopes. Until the
weak troughing and PVU fully exit the CWA later today, enough CAPE
lingers within the turbulent mean flow to support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon from Phoenix
eastward (also in locations that mainly missed out on Friday
afternoon`s excitement and atmo turning over). Southeast CA
observation sites have observed a steady decrease in moisture values
beginning Friday afternoon, with dewpoints running 3 to 5 degrees
drier over the last few hours compared to this time early Friday.

Upper troughing along with the cooler 500mb temperatures and storm-
supportive ML lapse rates will exit to our northeast as a more stable
upper air pattern builds in from west-southwest by this evening. LL
mixing ratios do not complete dry out and remain deep enough to
support evening precip activity over the eastern AZ mountains
Saturday and Sunday. More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop
as the ML/UL high centers remain to our southeast over Mexico through
early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to
normal through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and a
return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Southwesterly flow between the monsoon high across northern Mexico
and low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will result in above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An increase in
moisture is expected Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier
westerly flow across southeastern California will then battle deeper
moisture across southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the
week, with showers and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and
eastern Arizona. Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
955 AM MST SAT JUL 02 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather again today. Starting
Sunday, drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring a downturn
in activity heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Long lived gravity wave/outflow/decaying MCS from
Nevada last night has finally exited our eastern border. Behind
this wave, subsidence and building hghts will limit convective
development today, despite decent moisture profiles. Our current
POPs may be a little high, but they are in the ballpark.

After today, drier and stable westerly flow will take over for the
remainder of the holiday weekend and into next week. Expect fair and
seasonably warm conditions as a result.

Zones/grids look good, no updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...until 03z Sun expect scattered
shra/tsra and isold +tsra across northern Arizona, then decreasing
coverage. Strongest storms will contain mvfr/ifr conditions and
gusty winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
persist again today, with only a few isolated storms on Sunday as
drier air filters into the area. Storm motion will be from the west
to the east.

Monday through Wednesday...Only a few isolated storms are expected
through the period over the higher terrain as dry westerly flow
develops across the area.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
925 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms early today from Phoenix eastward. Subtle
drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances
for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9 am this morning, MCS associated with a passing short wave
continued to dissipate as it passed by to the northeast of Phoenix,
mostly grazing the border of our far eastern CWA as a few
showers/storms moved past Roosevelt and to the north of Globe. IR
imagery showed sunny skies from Phoenix west, and the 12z 500mb plot
indicated pronounced anticyclonic curvature over western AZ/SERN CA
behind the exiting trof. Of course, low level moisture over south
central AZ remains elevated this morning, with 1.57 inches of PWAT
at Phoenix and central desert dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, we look to be moving into a drying phase of the monsoon
starting today and heading into the first part of next week as
westerly flow aloft and deeper westerly steering flow looks to
dominate the weather pattern for Arizona. For the rest of today we
should see mostly sunny skies west of Phoenix with some afternoon
cumulus in the area, and we will see a continued chance of afternoon
storms over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix, although any
storm that forms will head off quickly towards the east/northeast.
Rain chances in the Phoenix area will be slim this afternoon, around
10 percent at best and most areas mostly likely will not see any
convection. West/southwest steering flow is always very detrimental
to storm chances in the greater Phoenix area and with ridging moving
in from the west, chances are even slimmer than normal. Current
forecasts look to be in good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Monsoon 2016 is off to an interesting start. Outside of our
exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which
themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales),
an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion,
record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more
typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen
as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off!

Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still
noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few
ACARS soundings. Satellite derived winds and ACARS soundings indicate
anticyclonic flow is beginning to transition further up through the
atmo profile over portions of the southern CO River Valley. UL
divergence and still rich Monsoonal moisture surface (PWAT axis of
values 1.5 inches or greater extends from Vegas southeastward through
portions of Maricopa County) remains, where thunderstorm activity
continues overnight and is lighting up area radar scopes. Until the
weak troughing and PVU fully exit the CWA later today, enough CAPE
lingers within the turbulent mean flow to support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon from Phoenix
eastward (also in locations that mainly missed out on Friday
afternoon`s excitement and atmo turning over). Southeast CA
observation sites have observed a steady decrease in moisture values
beginning Friday afternoon, with dewpoints running 3 to 5 degrees
drier over the last few hours compared to this time early Friday.

Upper troughing along with the cooler 500mb temperatures and storm-
supportive ML lapse rates will exit to our northeast as a more stable
upper air pattern builds in from west-southwest by this evening. LL
mixing ratios do not complete dry out and remain deep enough to
support evening precip activity over the eastern AZ mountains
Saturday and Sunday. More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop
as the ML/UL high centers remain to our southeast over Mexico through
early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to
normal through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and a
return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday: The monsoon high will rebuild across
southeastern Arizona Monday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture is expected
Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier westerly flow across
southeastern California will battle deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the week, with showers
and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and eastern Arizona.
Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
925 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weather disturbances
moving eastward across the Desert Southwest will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms early today from Phoenix eastward. Subtle
drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances
for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher
terrain of eastern Arizona. High temperatures will steadily climb
into the weekend and early next week as the atmosphere becomes drier.
Dry and warm conditions will last through much of next week, save for
a period in the mid-week where a slight increase in humidities return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9 am this morning, MCS associated with a passing short wave
continued to dissipate as it passed by to the northeast of Phoenix,
mostly grazing the border of our far eastern CWA as a few
showers/storms moved past Roosevelt and to the north of Globe. IR
imagery showed sunny skies from Phoenix west, and the 12z 500mb plot
indicated pronounced anticyclonic curvature over western AZ/SERN CA
behind the exiting trof. Of course, low level moisture over south
central AZ remains elevated this morning, with 1.57 inches of PWAT
at Phoenix and central desert dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, we look to be moving into a drying phase of the monsoon
starting today and heading into the first part of next week as
westerly flow aloft and deeper westerly steering flow looks to
dominate the weather pattern for Arizona. For the rest of today we
should see mostly sunny skies west of Phoenix with some afternoon
cumulus in the area, and we will see a continued chance of afternoon
storms over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix, although any
storm that forms will head off quickly towards the east/northeast.
Rain chances in the Phoenix area will be slim this afternoon, around
10 percent at best and most areas mostly likely will not see any
convection. West/southwest steering flow is always very detrimental
to storm chances in the greater Phoenix area and with ridging moving
in from the west, chances are even slimmer than normal. Current
forecasts look to be in good shape.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Monsoon 2016 is off to an interesting start. Outside of our
exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which
themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales),
an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion,
record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more
typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen
as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off!

Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still
noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few
ACARS soundings. Satellite derived winds and ACARS soundings indicate
anticyclonic flow is beginning to transition further up through the
atmo profile over portions of the southern CO River Valley. UL
divergence and still rich Monsoonal moisture surface (PWAT axis of
values 1.5 inches or greater extends from Vegas southeastward through
portions of Maricopa County) remains, where thunderstorm activity
continues overnight and is lighting up area radar scopes. Until the
weak troughing and PVU fully exit the CWA later today, enough CAPE
lingers within the turbulent mean flow to support isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon from Phoenix
eastward (also in locations that mainly missed out on Friday
afternoon`s excitement and atmo turning over). Southeast CA
observation sites have observed a steady decrease in moisture values
beginning Friday afternoon, with dewpoints running 3 to 5 degrees
drier over the last few hours compared to this time early Friday.

Upper troughing along with the cooler 500mb temperatures and storm-
supportive ML lapse rates will exit to our northeast as a more stable
upper air pattern builds in from west-southwest by this evening. LL
mixing ratios do not complete dry out and remain deep enough to
support evening precip activity over the eastern AZ mountains
Saturday and Sunday. More prominent westerly flow aloft will develop
as the ML/UL high centers remain to our southeast over Mexico through
early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm and return to
normal through the weekend under mostly clear skies. Shortwave 500mb
ridging will peak temperatures Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to
flirt with 110F readings in the warmer desert locales, including
Phoenix, El Centro and Tacna. Migration of the 700-500mb high center
back towards New Mexico for Wednesday allows for southerly flow and a
return of monsoonal moisture into the area late Wednesday and
Thursday. This intrusion still looks to be a glancing shot of
moisture, as further drying is progged to advect in from the West
possibly by next weekend. Some slight chance coverage was maintained
for the mountainous locations, with the lower desert locales with
PoPs sub-10 or even sub-5 percent for the end of next week/early
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

No thunderstorms are forecast for the greater Phoenix area today,
but mountain thunderstorms to the east are still expected, especially
this afternoon. Wind speeds of 12 kts or less and fairly typical diurnal
switches are likely. Very slim chance of any outflows from mountain
storms to affect area terminals.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Generally clear skies through Sunday. Winds will be breezy during the
afternoon at KBLH following consistent southerly directions. Wind
speeds at KIPL will mostly fall between 8-12 kts with southeasterly
directions until early this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday: The monsoon high will rebuild across
southeastern Arizona Monday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions. An increase in moisture is expected
Wednesday as the high shifts eastward. Drier westerly flow across
southeastern California will battle deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona through the remainder of the week, with showers
and thunderstorms mainly relegated to southern and eastern Arizona.
Near normal temperatures are expected mid to late week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
817 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air moving into the region will significantly
reduce the amount of convection expected today with little if any
expected Sunday and Monday. The lack of showers and cloud cover will
allow for higher afternoon temperatures as well. An increase in
moisture the middle of next week will increase the chances of showers
and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV imagery shows mostly clear skies from
Tucson south and westward with partly to mostly cloudy skies north
and east of Tucson. A few showers and thunderstorms are now
occurring over the Upper Gila River Valley near Safford but these
are gradually weakening. Meanwhile, a weakening forward propagating
MCS over north/central Arizona continues to move towards the White
Mountains this morning which may result in a few thunderstorms
across northern Graham and Greenlee counties later this morning. For
the rest of the area, the mid and upper levels have dried out
considerably but boundary layer moisture remains adequate with PWAT
values of 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Latest HRRR runs and UofA WRF NAM/GFS
show just enough boundary layer moisture for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms from the Tucson area south and eastward today. With
ridging building in, the storms should generally struggle so we
aren`t expecting significant impacts, but brief heavy rain is
possible.

The drying trend will continue Sunday and Monday as the ridge of
high pressure aloft over Sonora shunts the deep moisture to our
south and east with most areas remaining dry and otherwise just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the White
Mountains. With ridging building in, temperatures will warm back up
to near normal values by Monday and Tuesday. The ridge axis will be
far enough east on Tuesday to start a southerly flow of moisture
into southeast Arizona. Thus, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the higher terrain and international
border then. The northward push of moisture over the rest of the
region is expected Wednesday and Thursday with a more typical early
July monsoon pattern then before drier westerly flow returns for the
end of the work week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
Considerably fewer showers and thunderstorms today, mainly for areas
south and east of Tucson. Mostly clear skies this morning for the
terminals, but during the afternoon hours, ceilings generally 10-15K
ft. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions in heavy rainfall are
likely near storms where wind gusts could exceed 30 kts. Otherwise
surface winds generally 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will begin to diminish across the region
beginning today and continuing through Tuesday, resulting in a
decrease in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a slight
bump up in afternoon temperatures. Some moisture will begin to
return to the area Wednesday for a general increase in showers and
thunderstorms once again.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

GL

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 324 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

Sfc high pressure this morning was centered over southeast Nebraska.
With the light winds and ample moisture near the sfc,
widespread low stratus with some patchy light drizzle has developed
and will linger through the morning. Patchy dense fog is likely
in low lying areas where winds have become calm, otherwise all high
resolution guidance keeps the boundary layer just mixed enough at
around 5 to 8 mph to preclude widespread dense fog. Will continue to
monitor trends in the winds, but do not plan to issue a fog advisory
with this forecast.

Sfc high pressure gradually slides southeast, keeping the area under
mostly cloudy skies through the first half of the afternoon.
Temporary ridging aloft behind the departing shortwave trough will
preclude any precipitation through the period while a lee trough to
the west veers winds to the south during the afternoon at 5 to 10
mph. Increasing warm advection with clearing skies over
north central KS warms temps back to near normal in the
upper 80s. Elsewhere, skies begin to clear in the mid to late
afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.

For this evening`s festivities, southerly winds weaken to near 5 mph
as temperatures gradually fall into the low 70s Tuesday morning. Dry
air advects southward within the boundary layer overnight, therefore
chances for widespread stratus/fog are minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

There remains signs from the model solutions for a wave to move
across the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mid level lapse
rates are forecast to be plenty steep enough for elevated
instability but 0-6km shear is not all that impressive. So the
expectation is for a possible MCS to impact the region mainly
Tuesday night. However the models differ on where the possible
MCS may track. Because of the poor consensus among the operational
solutions, have kept POPs in the chance range. A similar set up is
anticipated for Wednesday night in terms of airmass. But the
forcing for storms is a little less obvious and still the models
show different paths for any MCS. So the forecast keeps things dry
for Wednesday with no real forcing or low level convergence.
Additionally if there is an MCS Tuesday night, there would likely
be decent subsidence in the wave of the system. Then the forecast
has some small POPs for Wednesday night thinking better chances
may be north of the forecast area. For Thursday night the GFS and
ECMWF show a weak boundary moving into the area that could act as
a focus for convection. Therefore have some chance POPs there as
well. Temps for Tuesday through Thursday continue to look hot with
mid and upper 90s forecast. The heat index continues to be the
main concern as models continue to support values around 105
degrees. With the recent rains and evapotranspiration becoming a
greater factor, dewpoints may have a difficult time mixing out
during the heat of the day. Considered issuing an advisory for
Tuesday but after collaborating with neighboring offices, will opt
to let the day shift take a look at the 12Z model runs before
issuing the advisory.

For Friday through Sunday, it is difficult to pick a period where
there shouldn`t be any precip chances. The GFS shows a decent
elevated mixed layer capping the boundary layer and as such
generates much less QPF across the area while the ECMWF shows
various reasons for precip which are not entirely implausible.
With this in mind and taking into account climatology a 20 to 30
percent chance on any given day, have stayed with a blend of the
models with small chances for precip through the weekend. Temps
are expected to be a bit cooler through the weekend with highs in
the lower 90s as the thermal ridge moves to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

Weak high pressure will slowly move southeastward across eastern
Kansas tonight and Monday morning. Moist atmosphere, wet ground
and light winds will results in LIFR stratus and fog tonight,
especially at TOP and FOE. High moving off to the southeast and
winds switching around to the southeast by late Monday morning
will results in gradually improving conditions with VFR expected
by mid afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

Happy 4th of July!

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...GDP



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
318 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

A return to more seasonable temperatures can be expected across the
area this afternoon but morning clouds & fog may linger over
southeast Kansas dampening the diurnal climb once again. Shortwave
ridging should result in dry weather conditions across the area as
the low/mid lvl thermal ridge begins to expand eastward toward the
Central Plains.

A shortwave trough will approach on Tuesday bringing isolated storms
to the area Tuesday afternoon & evening. 0-6km bulk shear of 30+
knots and mlcape exceeding 3000 j/kg may result in a severe storm or
two but coverage is expected to remain limited given warm mid-lvl
temperatures. As temperatures rise into the mid and upper
90s...heat indices will climb above the century mark with the
highest values anticipated across southeast Kansas where dewpoint
temperatures are expected to remain in the mid & upper 70s. A heat
advisory may become necessary across portions of the area on
Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday-Thursday...hot and dry weather is anticipated through the
period with the potential for triple digits returning to some areas.
Confidence in widespread 100+ degree temperatures remains low at
this time given recent widespread precipitation & saturated soil
conditions but areas that received less rain may rise above 100
degrees both days while much of the area will see heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Another shortwave trough is progged to move over the
Central Plains states on Friday bringing additional chances for
showers and storms. Rising heights/increasing thickness will support
rising temperatures as we move into the weekend with mostly dry
weather conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

A combination of stratus build-down and radiational affects
will promote IFR/LIFR CIGS and IFR VSBYS in fog overnight across
much of central and eventually southeast Kansas. Surface ridge
will gradually shift east from central into southeast Kansas early
Monday morning with a return southerly flow developing across
central Kansas by late morning into Monday afternoon. The fog and
stratus CIGS will lift steadily from LIFR/IFR to MVFR by late
Monday morning with VFR returning by the afternoon. A few showers
will linger in the southeast corner of Kansas tonight, though
expected to remain south of the KCNU terminal.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  73  94  76 /  10  10  20  20
Hutchinson      89  72  95  75 /  10  10  20  20
Newton          88  72  94  75 /  10  10  20  20
ElDorado        87  72  94  76 /   0  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   91  73  95  78 /   0  10  20  20
Russell         92  70  97  72 /  10  10  20  20
Great Bend      92  70  96  72 /  10  10  20  20
Salina          88  71  97  75 /  10  10  20  30
McPherson       89  72  95  75 /  10  10  20  20
Coffeyville     89  74  94  77 /  10  10  10  20
Chanute         86  74  94  76 /  10  10  10  30
Iola            85  73  94  76 /  10  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    88  74  94  77 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
in the 60s w/ a mix of clear and cloudy skies. A low level cloud
deck has blanketed the eastern half of the area this morning due to
surface high pressure to our east creating a ESE surface gradient.
Trend is for areal coverage of cloud cover to slowly shift east thru
the morning hours as the surface ridge shifts in tandem.

For the beginning of the week right into the midweek(Wed/Wed night)
timeframe...the forecast area will see a return of hot conditions.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set
up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies. This in
turn with lee-side troughing over the Front Range and surface high
pressure remaining to the east...will aid in strong WAA into the
region. Models do carry a few shortwave troughs across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday in tandem with the lee-side trough exiting
east into the Plains Region. Bulk of dynamics do remain north of the
CWA closest to the main system...but do expect rw/trw activity to
occur as these systems push east. Deep dry layer over the region
will be hard to overcome as these systems approach...but enough
instability expected to trigger convection nonetheless. Model
parameters enough to warrant mention of Marginal Risk for severe wx
by SPC for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances look to occur on
Tuesday as remnants of lee-side trough linger over the Central
Plains providing focus for convection to fire up.

For temps...with model 850 mb temps in the +28C to +32C range during
the day for the next 72-hour period...looking for daytime highs to
range in the 90s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could be tempered a
few degrees by expected clouds/precip. Overnight lows will range in
the 60s to almost 70F in the eastern zones.

Record highs for the Mon-Wed timeframe will range 103F to 111F...so
not expecting any ties/records.

Precip/Wx...areas of fog this morning for eastern zones expected to
burn off/shift east in tandem with cloud cover movement and a shift
to more SSW winds. Timing for convection Tues/Wed will focus on
afternoon/early evening hrs especially for central/eastern zones.

PW values are going to range from 0.75" to almost 1.25" during
expected precip. Higher numbers east where closest to tapping into
deeper Gulf moisture. Some storms that could develop might carry
heavy rainfall.

Other concern to follow going into midweek should no moisture
fall...especially for western areas...will be the low RH values
creeping into the upper teens and lower 20s...and thus potential
Fire Wx issues. Winds will be tempered below criteria during this
time...but should be monitored nonetheless.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

In the extended period the models are showing a upper level longwave
trough with a tail end of a surface front moving through the region
Thursday and Friday. This will produce a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at the start of the period. Saturday, as the trough
continues to move towards the east, a ridge will move over the
region from the west. Saturday night will be another chance of
showers and thunderstorms as the models show a shortwave trough moving
within the upper level southwest flow and a surface boundary over
the Kansas/Colorado border. Sunday is expected to dry out as the
ridge continues to influence the region for the rest of the
extended. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s for
most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.

At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
in the 60s w/ a mix of clear and cloudy skies. A low level cloud
deck has blanketed the eastern half of the area this morning due to
surface high pressure to our east creating a ESE surface gradient.
Trend is for areal coverage of cloud cover to slowly shift east thru
the morning hours as the surface ridge shifts in tandem.

For the beginning of the week right into the midweek(Wed/Wed night)
timeframe...the forecast area will see a return of hot conditions.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set
up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies. This in
turn with lee-side troughing over the Front Range and surface high
pressure remaining to the east...will aid in strong WAA into the
region. Models do carry a few shortwave troughs across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday in tandem with the lee-side trough exiting
east into the Plains Region. Bulk of dynamics do remain north of the
CWA closest to the main system...but do expect rw/trw activity to
occur as these systems push east. Deep dry layer over the region
will be hard to overcome as these systems approach...but enough
instability expected to trigger convection nonetheless. Model
parameters enough to warrant mention of Marginal Risk for severe wx
by SPC for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances look to occur on
Tuesday as remnants of lee-side trough linger over the Central
Plains providing focus for convection to fire up.

For temps...with model 850 mb temps in the +28C to +32C range during
the day for the next 72-hour period...looking for daytime highs to
range in the 90s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could be tempered a
few degrees by expected clouds/precip. Overnight lows will range in
the 60s to almost 70F in the eastern zones.

Record highs for the Mon-Wed timeframe will range 103F to 111F...so
not expecting any ties/records.

Precip/Wx...areas of fog this morning for eastern zones expected to
burn off/shift east in tandem with cloud cover movement and a shift
to more SSW winds. Timing for convection Tues/Wed will focus on
afternoon/early evening hrs especially for central/eastern zones.

PW values are going to range from 0.75" to almost 1.25" during
expected precip. Higher numbers east where closest to tapping into
deeper Gulf moisture. Some storms that could develop might carry
heavy rainfall.

Other concern to follow going into midweek should no moisture
fall...especially for western areas...will be the low RH values
creeping into the upper teens and lower 20s...and thus potential
Fire Wx issues. Winds will be tempered below criteria during this
time...but should be monitored nonetheless.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.

At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
in the 60s w/ a mix of clear and cloudy skies. A low level cloud
deck has blanketed the eastern half of the area this morning due to
surface high pressure to our east creating a ESE surface gradient.
Trend is for areal coverage of cloud cover to slowly shift east thru
the morning hours as the surface ridge shifts in tandem.

For the beginning of the week right into the midweek(Wed/Wed night)
timeframe...the forecast area will see a return of hot conditions.
H5/H7 ridging over the southern half of the country is going to set
up a general zonal/westerly downslope flow from the Rockies. This in
turn with lee-side troughing over the Front Range and surface high
pressure remaining to the east...will aid in strong WAA into the
region. Models do carry a few shortwave troughs across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday in tandem with the lee-side trough exiting
east into the Plains Region. Bulk of dynamics do remain north of the
CWA closest to the main system...but do expect rw/trw activity to
occur as these systems push east. Deep dry layer over the region
will be hard to overcome as these systems approach...but enough
instability expected to trigger convection nonetheless. Model
parameters enough to warrant mention of Marginal Risk for severe wx
by SPC for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chances look to occur on
Tuesday as remnants of lee-side trough linger over the Central
Plains providing focus for convection to fire up.

For temps...with model 850 mb temps in the +28C to +32C range during
the day for the next 72-hour period...looking for daytime highs to
range in the 90s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday could be tempered a
few degrees by expected clouds/precip. Overnight lows will range in
the 60s to almost 70F in the eastern zones.

Record highs for the Mon-Wed timeframe will range 103F to 111F...so
not expecting any ties/records.

Precip/Wx...areas of fog this morning for eastern zones expected to
burn off/shift east in tandem with cloud cover movement and a shift
to more SSW winds. Timing for convection Tues/Wed will focus on
afternoon/early evening hrs especially for central/eastern zones.

PW values are going to range from 0.75" to almost 1.25" during
expected precip. Higher numbers east where closest to tapping into
deeper Gulf moisture. Some storms that could develop might carry
heavy rainfall.

Other concern to follow going into midweek should no moisture
fall...especially for western areas...will be the low RH values
creeping into the upper teens and lower 20s...and thus potential
Fire Wx issues. Winds will be tempered below criteria during this
time...but should be monitored nonetheless.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.

At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...Updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Low clouds or patchy fog is expected east of Highway 283 this
morning as winds remain light with ample moisture in the lower
levels. Any low clouds or fog that do develop should burn off by
the afternoon with mostly clear skies expected through the
remainder of the day. A weak shortwave will approach western
Kansas this evening into the overnight period but only a slight
increase in cloud cover is anticipated. Lee troughing will develop
today and continue through tonight leading to southerly winds felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs today are
progged to reach into the lower 90s with lows tonight around 70
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

An upper level ridge will be found above the southern United
States and northern Mexico through the extended period. Flow above
western Kansas will generally be zonal (west to east) through
Wednesday then more southwest towards the end of the week as an
upper level low moves through the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains. Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure will
continue to be located west of the area through at least Wednesday
bringing southerly winds to western Kansas. A weak shortwave is
progged to move through the area Tuesday which will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms to central Kansas. Otherwise expect partly
cloudy skies. A better chance of thunderstorms exists late this
week into the weekend as the aforementioned disturbance affects
western Kansas. This feature will also help push a cold front
through the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction
Thursday. This will be short lived as troughing returns Friday
into the weekend shifting winds back to a southerly direction. As
for temperatures, highs Tuesday through Thursday look to reach
into the mid to upper 90s then down slightly into the lower to mid
90s Friday into this weekend. Lows will generally range from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Areas of fog or low level clouds are expected to form before
sunrise this morning, mainly east of highway 83. This will bring
MVFR to LIFR conditions to the DDC and HYS terminals. Visibilities
and ceilings at GCK may remain higher and range from VFR to MVFR.
Any fog or low clouds that do form should burn off by late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be light overnight but
from a southerly direction. Wind speeds then increase to around 10
knots by this afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  70  95  70 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  92  68  95  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  92  67  97  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  94  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  91  70  97  69 /  10  10  20  20
P28  92  72  98  74 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Westerly flow across the Rockies will improve today as an upper
level disturbance moves across eastern Kansas. Lingering low
clouds this afternoon are expected to continue to erode through
early tonight as light north winds begin to gradually veer to the
east southeast. Some areas of fog will be possible late tonight
across portions of western Kansas given the improving easterly up
slope flow. At this time how dense the fog will be is somewhat
unclear so am leaning away from issuing a dense fog advisory but
will continue to look at this and adjust if needed later this
afternoon.

Late day convection that will be possible over southeast Colorado
will spread southeast early this evening towards extreme southwest
Kansas. The chance for convection this evening does not appear
high but will keep small chances going west of highway 83 in
extreme southwest Kansas.

On Monday the latest guidance for highs stills appear to be a
little too warm given the recent rainfall, despite the afternoon
sunshine expected along with the warming 850mb temperatures
between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday. Will continue to follow the
previous forecast and trend temperatures down several degrees
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Warm air advection develops Monday night north of a surface
boundary that will be located across the Panhandle of Texas and
Oklahoma. A few models hinted at a subtle upper wave rippling
across western Kansas early Monday night also. Given this will
keep small chance in far south southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma
border.

On Tuesday an upper level trough, located over southern
California at 12z Sunday, will exit the Rockies and begin to cross
the Central Plains during the afternoon. This may give rise to a
few afternoon or evening thunderstorms as it crosses western
Kansas late day. Main limiting factor for storms Tuesday afternoon
will be the warming forecast in the mid levels. Despite the warm
mid level temperatures expected Tuesday afternoon am currently
unable to completely rule out an isolated storm late day so will
leave the slight chance for afternoon and evening storms ahead of
this upper wave and east of the 10C to 14C 700mb temperature
gradient.

850mb and 700mb temperatures continue to warm through Thursday so
the chance for convection will continue to decrease for southwest
Kansas. Temperatures are also expected to warm but unsure if
temperatures will be as warm is what the 00z 850mb temperatures
mixed down would suggest. Highs mainly in the mid 90s still appear
to be reasonable.

On Friday a surface cold front will drop south into western
Kansas as an upper level disturbance will cross the northern
plains. Another warm day with highs in the 90s can still be
expected along and south of this front Friday afternoon while
highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler will be possible north of this
boundary. Exactly where this front will be late Friday however is
somewhat unclear at this time so will follow the general trend of
the CRExtendedFcst_Init for temperatures and precipitation chances
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Areas of fog or low level clouds are expected to form before
sunrise this morning, mainly east of highway 83. This will bring
MVFR to LIFR conditions to the DDC and HYS terminals. Visibilities
and ceilings at GCK may remain higher and range from VFR to MVFR.
Any fog or low clouds that do form should burn off by late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be light overnight but
from a southerly direction. Wind speeds then increase to around 10
knots by this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  63  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  64  92  67  98 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  65  94  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  62  91  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
P28  65  92  72  97 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Westerly flow across the Rockies will improve today as an upper
level disturbance moves across eastern Kansas. Lingering low
clouds this afternoon are expected to continue to erode through
early tonight as light north winds begin to gradually veer to the
east southeast. Some areas of fog will be possible late tonight
across portions of western Kansas given the improving easterly up
slope flow. At this time how dense the fog will be is somewhat
unclear so am leaning away from issuing a dense fog advisory but
will continue to look at this and adjust if needed later this
afternoon.

Late day convection that will be possible over southeast Colorado
will spread southeast early this evening towards extreme southwest
Kansas. The chance for convection this evening does not appear
high but will keep small chances going west of highway 83 in
extreme southwest Kansas.

On Monday the latest guidance for highs stills appear to be a
little too warm given the recent rainfall, despite the afternoon
sunshine expected along with the warming 850mb temperatures
between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday. Will continue to follow the
previous forecast and trend temperatures down several degrees
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Warm air advection develops Monday night north of a surface
boundary that will be located across the Panhandle of Texas and
Oklahoma. A few models hinted at a subtle upper wave rippling
across western Kansas early Monday night also. Given this will
keep small chance in far south southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma
border.

On Tuesday an upper level trough, located over southern
California at 12z Sunday, will exit the Rockies and begin to cross
the Central Plains during the afternoon. This may give rise to a
few afternoon or evening thunderstorms as it crosses western
Kansas late day. Main limiting factor for storms Tuesday afternoon
will be the warming forecast in the mid levels. Despite the warm
mid level temperatures expected Tuesday afternoon am currently
unable to completely rule out an isolated storm late day so will
leave the slight chance for afternoon and evening storms ahead of
this upper wave and east of the 10C to 14C 700mb temperature
gradient.

850mb and 700mb temperatures continue to warm through Thursday so
the chance for convection will continue to decrease for southwest
Kansas. Temperatures are also expected to warm but unsure if
temperatures will be as warm is what the 00z 850mb temperatures
mixed down would suggest. Highs mainly in the mid 90s still appear
to be reasonable.

On Friday a surface cold front will drop south into western
Kansas as an upper level disturbance will cross the northern
plains. Another warm day with highs in the 90s can still be
expected along and south of this front Friday afternoon while
highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler will be possible north of this
boundary. Exactly where this front will be late Friday however is
somewhat unclear at this time so will follow the general trend of
the CRExtendedFcst_Init for temperatures and precipitation chances
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Areas of fog or low level clouds are expected to form before
sunrise this morning, mainly east of highway 83. This will bring
MVFR to LIFR conditions to the DDC and HYS terminals. Visibilities
and ceilings at GCK may remain higher and range from VFR to MVFR.
Any fog or low clouds that do form should burn off by late morning
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be light overnight but
from a southerly direction. Wind speeds then increase to around 10
knots by this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  63  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  64  92  67  98 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  65  94  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  62  91  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
P28  65  92  72  97 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1122 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough
beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to
move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease.
Temperatures are in the 70s/80s across the region with variable
winds at less than 10 mph.

The latest model runs of the NAM and HRRR have chances for PoPs this
afternoon over the far southwestern portions (possibly into the
northwestern portions) of the region as a weak shortwave moves over
the CWA. CAPES will get to around 1500 J/kg but bulk shear is not
impressive. The remainder of the night is expected to be dry.
Around midnight MDT, fog is expected to form over areas along and
east of Hwy 83. The SREF and NAM models have the fog lasting until
around 13/14Z Monday morning.

A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting
trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s.
There are slight chances for precipitation in the far western
portion of the region in the late afternoon as an upper level
shortwave moves towards the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

The extended period will be fairly active with precipitation chances
possible everyday. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to
the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the
west. Precipitation chances continue into the evening and overnight
hours over the western portions of the region due to the shortwave
moving into the area. The upper level shortwave is slow moving, so
Tuesday is looking to be impacted by the same one and PoPs are
possible primarily in the eastern portions of the region. As the day
continues another 700 mb shortwave moves into the western portions
of the region bringing slight chances for precipitation during the
evening hours. CAPEs reach the 1200-1500 J/kg range so some stronger
storms are possible. Moving into Wednesday, a large portion of the
region could see precipitation as yet another shortwave moves
through the region on the east side of the trough. Thursday, as of
current model runs, looks the most impressive for storm chances due
to there being a cold front dipping down into the CWA from the north
as the trough moves into the northern portion of the region. CAPEs
get up to 1300 J/kg in area and bulk shear is in the 50-60 kt range.
Once that trough passes us another ridge moves into the region and
stays over the CWA through Saturday before another trough begins to
push into the west. Friday and Saturday look similar, but Saturday
night looks more impressive with a boundary along the Kansas,
Colorado border and a shortwave moving over the area. Sunday is
expected to dry out, for the most part, as a ridge moves into the
region. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s the entire period
with a small drop on Thursday and Friday as the trough impacts the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

At KGLD...VFR expected with light downslope winds veering from
southwest overnight to northwest Monday morning.

At KMCK...low clouds already developing in moist southeasterly
flow. Expect ceilings to gradually lower overnight with LIFR or
perhaps VLIFR around sunrise if fog manages to reduce visibilities
as well. Conditions will improve by mid to late Monday morning
with VFR thereafter.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
434 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Weak upper level ridging will continue over Colorado today with
light westerly flow aloft. Showers are expected to develop over
the mountains during the afternoon and drift out over the adjacent
plains during the evening. Surface pressure gradients across the
state are expected to remain weak with a little bit of lee
troughing evident over the northeast plains. This mean that
surface heating over the mountains will be the primary driver of
afternoon convection. That...and any embedded, weak upper level
short wave that reveals itself through the afternoon hours. Storms
will tend to be more high-based, making the primary threat gusty
winds, rather than hail or rainfall. After the rounds of afternoon
and evening showers, skies should return to a mostly clear state
by about midnight.

Ahead of the afternoon shower activity, high temperatures across
the plains should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the
lower and mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

The flat upper ridge remains in control of the forecast area into
Wednesday`s night, then a weak upper trough begins moving into
Colorado from the west. Models have 40-50 knot westerly jet level
flow for the CWA Tuesday, then 35-50 knot west-southwesterly flow
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The QG Omega fields have
benign synoptic scale energy for the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, then weak upward motion is progged into Thursday morning.
The boundary layer winds look to adhere to normal diurnal patterns
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Downsloping prevails on Wednesday with
normal drainage flow Wednesday night. There is pretty decent
moisture on Tuesday, more than previous model runs indicated.
There is not much down low however. There is bit Tuesday night,
then Wednesday is pretty dry. It increases again Wednesday night.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.40 to 1.00 inch range on
Tuesday into the evening. The dry out a bit into the 0.20 to 0.80
inch range for Wednesday, but increase slightly Wednesday night.
The CAPE values are progged to be over a 1000 J/kg for the
mountains and up to 1000 J/kg for the plains late day Tuesday.
CAPE is considerably lower for all the CWA late day Wednesday. The
QPF fields have minor measurable rainfall amounts for the forecast
area late day Tuesday and less for late day Wednesday. For pops,
will go with "chance"s in the mountains late day Tuesday, with
"slight chance"s for the plains. On Wednesday will have 0-10%s for
all areas. Tuesday`s high temperatures will be 0-1.5 C warmer than
this afternoon`s highs, Wednesday`s reading swill be 1-2 C warmer
than Tuesday`s. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday,
models have a weak upper trough move across Colorado on Thursday.
There is upper ridging Friday into Saturday, then southwesterly
flow aloft on SUnday with an upper trough to the west of Colorado.
Temperatures will cool off a little bit on Thursday, then warm
back above normals for the last three days. It looks to be pretty
dry with 0-10% pops.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 434 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Mostly clear skies and unlimited visibilities are expected through
the early afternoon when clouds will begin developing over the
foothills. From 4 PM through about 10 PM, isolated thunderstorms
with ceilings between 5000 and 8000 feet AGL will be possible.
Storms are expected to be moving from west to east through the
late afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and light to moderate rain
will be the main threat from thunderstorms. No other aviation
impacts are expected.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
356 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today, with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.

The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending of fuel conditions following the recent
precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.

The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.

Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop after
about 17z today. Storms will initiate over higher terrain with
a few storms drifting into valleys late in the afternoon. Most
activity will end by 03z. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds will
be possible with the stronger storms on Monday with brief MVFR
ceilings and visibilities below ILS breakpoints mainly at the
higher elevation TAF sites of KTEX, KEGE and KASE.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...TGR/CC
AVIATION...CC



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
349 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

A weak shortwave trof wl be moving acrs srn CO and nrn NM today and
tonight.  Residual mstr and the disturbance wl combine to allow for
the development of showers and tstms.  The NAM and HRRR show the
first showers/tstms developing ovr the swrn CO mtns near Noon.
Showers/tstm then develop thru the afternoon hours ovr the other mtn
areas with isold to sct coverage. Generally light flow aloft today
wl result in slow moving storms. The NAM keeps the sern plains dry
thru the afternoon, but the HRRR hints at some isold activity
developing nr the KS border in the late afternoon. High temps today
are expected to be a few degree warmer than on Sun.

Some showers/tstms may spread out ovr portions of the sern plains
this evening, but it looks like coverage would be spotty.  Most, if
not all pcpn wl likely end by midnight.  However then NAM does
continue some light pcpn ovr the sern corner of the state into the
late night hours, associated with the shortwave trof as it moves
thru that area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Tuesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow aloft is progged across
the region, as an upper trough across the Northern Tier translates
east through the period. Models continue to indicate weak
disturbances embedded within the flow moving across the area,
although models also continue to indicate not much available
moisture to work with. At any rate, should be enough residual
moisture to support generally isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Convection
looks to be generally high based producing more wind than measurable
rainfall, as supported by inverted v sounding profiles. Warm and dry
westerly flow supports good mixing and helps to boost temperatures
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday, though MOS temperatures may
be a tad to warm. Breezy afternoon winds could lead to possible
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area,
though will have to see how recent rainfall has affected fuels
across the area. Passing Northern Tier system looks to send a weak
front across the area on Thursday, supporting slightly cooler
temperatures and slightly better chances of storms across the
eastern plains.

Friday-Sunday...Generally dry west to southwest flow aloft progged
across the area Friday with increasing southwest flow aloft Saturday
and Sunday as models continue to develop a rather strong upper low
across the Great Basin region by Sunday. With that said, should
continue to see temperatures generally above seasonal averages with
breezy afternoon west to southwest winds and chances for mainly high
based convection over and near the higher terrain through the
period. However, the ECMWF still keeps more available moisture and a
dry line across the plains, keeping better chances of diurnal storms
across eastern Colorado both Friday and Saturday. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites.  It is
possible for storms to move into the vcnty of the forecast sites
late this afternoon or early this evening, but chances are too low
at this time to include in the forecast.  KALS should have breezy
westerly winds this afternoon with gusts around 20kts.  KCOS should
see breezy southerly winds in the afternoon with gusts around 20kts
possible.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
459 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.

The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.

Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly across the higher
terrain with some drift into adjacent valleys. KTEX and KASE stand
the best chance of seeing conditions below ILS breakpoints in
brief moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds to 20 mph are also
possible in vicinity of any showers. Otherwise, most TAF sites
should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Most convection will
end shortly after 03Z. Isolated showers will continue across
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado mainly north of I-70 through
the early morning hours with KVEL possibly seeing a brief light
shower. Much drier conditions work in from the west Tuesday with
any afternoon convection limited to the northern Colorado
mountains and adjacent valleys...including KHDN and KSBS.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...MDA



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.

Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.

Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.

Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Updated to remove/reduce POPs over most of the CWA. High res
models still showing SCT convection this eve over part of the
Plains this eve...but based on obs and look-out-the-window this
scenario seems increasingly unlikely, so will keep Plains dry
this evening. ISOLD storms most likely where current convection
has developed, mainly over the Mts and high valleys. Rose

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.

Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.

Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.

Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Currently...Lighter west winds aloft across the state today, with
very isolated convection over the mts as of 230 pm. Hot and dry for
much of the forecast area, with temps climbing into the 90s and RH
levels in the teens for most of the e plains.

Tonight and tomorrow...Light zonal flow aloft will continue through
tomorrow, with dry and warmer air spreading across the CWA. Isolated
convection over the mts this aftn has been very hesitant to move off
the higher terrain, and short range models indicate that much of the
activity will be done by midnight. However, a weak disturbance aloft
is crossing Colorado tonight, and models have been steady on showing
some shower activity over the SE corner overnight. Therefore, kept
isolated pops over the SE corners until around 08z.

Hot and essentially dry tomorrow, with isolated convection firing
over the mts by midday but more focused on the northern mts. Once
again the threat from any storms that do develop will be lightning
and gusty winds. Temps will climb into the 90s to near 100 F for the
e plains, and into the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Tuesday night - Thursday...westerly flow aloft picks up across
the central Rockies...especially Wednesday into Thursday...due to
an upper trough moving north of Colorado through the period. Hints
at subtle minor shortwaves rippling through the pattern, but there
is not much available moisture. As a result, generally isolated
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. With the drier
conditions near the surface, expect to see more wind with storms
rather than any measurable rainfall. The hottest day looks to be
Wednesday with good mixing and mid level temperatures in the 15C
to 18C range. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday expected in
the upper 80s to 90s plains, 80s across most of the high valleys,
and 60s and 70s mountains. Near critical fire weather conditions
will occur Wednesday.

Thursday night - Monday...as the northern trough moves into the
northern Great Plains later Thursday, some slightly cooler air may
works its way into the plains, and provide a touch of relief on
Friday. With little available moisture, only isolated showers and
storms will occur. Over the upcoming weekend, a strong, for the
season, upper low with develop across the Pacific NW and into the
Great Basin. This will strengthen the west-southwesterly flow
across the central Rockies. There is forecast to be some residual
moisture Saturday, so isolated showers and storms will be
possible. On Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough move east,
well to the north of Colorado, drier air will prevail across the
CWA, which will result in very warm to hot conditions. -TLM

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS and
KCOS this eve producing gusty and erratic winds, but chances are
very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Looks like
thunderstorm chances tomorrow will be even more sparse. Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...MOORE



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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.

Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will be around through 02z. Biggest threat
will be outflow winds with gusts to 40 knots possible. Just a
20-30 percent chance that the Denver airports will see a
thunderstorm, but gusty outflow winds will likely produce a wind
shift or two between 22z and 02z. Other than outflow winds from
near by convection, southerly winds are expected to prevail
through Tuesday morning. Another round of isolated/scattered
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
305 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and Tuesday. This will
keep warm and semi-dry air over north central and northeast
Colorado. Little change to the airmass in the next 24 hours.
Precipitable water values will be 0.70-0.90 of an inch over
northeast Colorado this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Over the higher terrain precipitable water value will be around a
half inch to a little higher. CAPE will be on the low side,
generally less than 500 J/kg. So not expecting any severe weather
today or Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the dew point depression reaching 40-50 degrees. Brief heavy
rain will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass temperatures do not change much, so expect highs Tuesday
to be similar to today with readings reaching the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Storm track has shifted well north of Colorado as per normal for
this time of year. Consequently less convection...more sunshine...
typical very warm temperatures and low humidity. Models show
little sign of the seasonal monsoon pattern developing over the
Desert Southwest during the next 7 days with a persistent nearly
zonal mean layer flow over the western CONUS. That said...a weak
mid-level shortwave translating eastward within this flow may
glance the forecast area on Thursday...providing just enough
moisture...instability and lift to warrant a low chance for late
day t-storms in the mtns. Models show the tail end of a weak cold
front swinging across the plains during the day, and except for
the NAM all the other models do not show any precip/convection on
the plains associated with this system. Just a 2-3 deg f cool down
from the day with about a 1 deg c cool down aloft with passage of
the shortwave.

Friday and beyond...temperatures will creep upward with shortwave
ridging and drying. Don`t see any temperature records...but plenty of
90 deg temperatures at lower elevations and 70s/lower 80s in the
high country. Any t-storm formation should be largely confined to
the high country and even that will be scanty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will be around through 02z. Biggest threat
will be outflow winds with gusts to 40 knots possible. Just a
20-30 percent chance that the Denver airports will see a
thunderstorm, but gusty outflow winds will likely produce a wind
shift or two between 22z and 02z. Other than outflow winds from
near by convection, southerly winds are expected to prevail
through Tuesday morning. Another round of isolated/scattered
thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
229 PM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

An upper level ridge will remain centered to our south while
stronger westerlies will remain to our north through Tuesday
night. Our region is still dealing with the tail end of the
monsoonal moisture that advected over the area late last week.
Precip water values generally 0.50 to 0.75 inch will continue
through tonight before decreasing further from the southwest
Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms today developing over the high
ridges will be steered slowly to the east. Greatest coverage will
remain over the mountains through this evening with potential for
locally heavy rainfall...gusty winds and of course lightning.
Weak perturbations in the west/southwesterly flow aloft will
provide enough lift overnight to raise the concern for at least
isolated storms/showers continuing through the early morning
hours...especially near and north of I-70.

The main support for afternoon storms Tuesday will be toward the
continental divide and from the Flat Tops northeast due to the
drier air working in from the southwest. Will see max temps bump
up a couple of degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Our region will remain in the southwesterly flow aloft between
high pressure over Texas and a persistant long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest. As one shortwave moves east across MT/WY
Wednesday into Thursday...a surface front will move south into
northern CO. As a result...will have increased surface winds in
advance of the front...especially for the valleys of eastern UT
and northwest CO. The front washes out late this week and with
available moisture pretty scant...not expecting much in the way of
showers or thunderstorms. Isolated at best. By late in the
weekend, models agree on a more robust upper level low pressure
system with higher amplitude moving across the Pac NW and sending
a stronger front and higher winds aloft through our region Sunday
into Monday. Still very little moisture to work with but this
could once again raise concerns for extreme wildfire behavior.

Temperatures near to slightly above normal can be expected through
Saturday...then fall below normal behind the cold front passage
late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.

The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending on fuel conditions following the
recent precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.

The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.

Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Skies cleared rapidly overnight across eastern UT and western CO
except over extreme NE UT and NW CO where a weak front continued
to drag mid and hi level clouds along the CO, WY and UT borders.
Surface dew points are projected to slowly lower today though
precipitable water in the nam12 forecast sounding only drops from
.87 at 12Z to .81 inch at 00Z. CAPE is projected to peak out over
GJT at 898 this afternoon. Believe isolated to scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
again today with a slight chance that a few storms will survive
moving off the hills and over the valleys.

The weak ridging over the area will slide a bit south and east
Tuesday as a broad trough strengthens a bit over the northwestern
U.S. This pushes the weak front just north of the area and the
associated tighter gradient further south and over the northern
half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will increase and
surface humidity will continue to lower. This may raise fire
weather concerns depending on fuel conditions following the
recent precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Moisture continues decreasing Tuesday night and beyond and this
will be reflected in convective coverage. A few afternoon and
evening showers and storms may form along the Continental Divide,
maybe the San Juans, but these will be more of the pulse- type
storms that we generally see during the summer months.

The long term period will see our CWA sandwiched between a closed
low and broad area of high pressure. The closed low will drop
down from Canada and then shift eastward along the US/Canadian
border while a broad area of high pressure sets up over the
southern states. Moisture will stream up from the south but does
not look to reach our CWA so as said, isolated showers and storms
will be common over favored higher terrain.

Temperatures through the period will ramp up to near normal values
for this time of year as opposed to the rather cool temperatures
we`ve seen over the last few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Clear skies will become FEW to SCT over the next hours as
convection starts firing across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again this afternoon and evening but look to be
favored over higher terrain though some cells may drift into
adjacent valleys. As far as TAF sites are concerned, KASE may see
a passing shower or storm later this afternoon but not confident
enough yet to put TEMPO group so will leave vcsh for now.
Remaining TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

A weak shortwave trof wl be moving acrs srn CO and nrn NM today and
tonight.  Residual mstr and the disturbance wl combine to allow for
the development of showers and tstms.  The NAM and HRRR show the
first showers/tstms developing ovr the swrn CO mtns near Noon.
Showers/tstm then develop thru the afternoon hours ovr the other mtn
areas with isold to sct coverage. Generally light flow aloft today
wl result in slow moving storms. The NAM keeps the sern plains dry
thru the afternoon, but the HRRR hints at some isold activity
developing nr the KS border in the late afternoon. High temps today
are expected to be a few degree warmer than on Sun.

Some showers/tstms may spread out ovr portions of the sern plains
this evening, but it looks like coverage would be spotty.  Most, if
not all pcpn wl likely end by midnight.  However then NAM does
continue some light pcpn ovr the sern corner of the state into the
late night hours, associated with the shortwave trof as it moves
thru that area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Tuesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow aloft is progged across
the region, as an upper trough across the Northern Tier translates
east through the period. Models continue to indicate weak
disturbances embedded within the flow moving across the area,
although models also continue to indicate not much available
moisture to work with. At any rate, should be enough residual
moisture to support generally isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Convection
looks to be generally high based producing more wind than measurable
rainfall, as supported by inverted v sounding profiles. Warm and dry
westerly flow supports good mixing and helps to boost temperatures
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday, though MOS temperatures may
be a tad to warm. Breezy afternoon winds could lead to possible
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area,
though will have to see how recent rainfall has affected fuels
across the area. Passing Northern Tier system looks to send a weak
front across the area on Thursday, supporting slightly cooler
temperatures and slightly better chances of storms across the
eastern plains.

Friday-Sunday...Generally dry west to southwest flow aloft progged
across the area Friday with increasing southwest flow aloft Saturday
and Sunday as models continue to develop a rather strong upper low
across the Great Basin region by Sunday. With that said, should
continue to see temperatures generally above seasonal averages with
breezy afternoon west to southwest winds and chances for mainly high
based convection over and near the higher terrain through the
period. However, the ECMWF still keeps more available moisture and a
dry line across the plains, keeping better chances of diurnal storms
across eastern Colorado both Friday and Saturday. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2016

VFR conditions forecast for much of the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain may roll across KALS
and KCOS this aftn from 20z-01z producing gusty and erratic winds,
but chances are very low so will not mention in the TAFS. Sfc
winds may become breezy at times this aftn, with gusts to 20-25
mph out of the W-SW for KALS, and gusts to 20 mph out of the S for
KCOS. Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

 130 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.AVIATION...
Biggest impact over the next few hours will be showers and
thunderstorms. The bulk of activity is currently moving across an
area along a line northwest of a KBTR to KMCB line. These storms
are moving quite briskly at 30+ knots and likely have wind gusts
around that speed as well. Some storms could spread southeast of
the current location but not expecting as much coverage there.
Otherwise...vfr conditions will prevail through the overnight
period with light to calm winds.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  77  95  77  94 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  78  93  77  93 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  79  93  79  94 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  80  93  79  92 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  76  91  77  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1231 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.AVIATION...
Heating today combined with precip wtr around 1.9 inches and the
approach of an upr lvl shrtwv fm the nw will support storm dvlpmntin
se Tx and srn La thru the late aftn hrs. ATTM... AEX appears to be
the Taf lctn w/ the highest potential for storm actvty. This will
shift down into s-cntrl La drg the late aftn hrs...LFT and ARA.
Storms ending around or just aftr ss... all TAF sites going VFR
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1141 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/

UPDATE...
Cluster of storms now moving into e cntl TX has been showing signs
of weakening the past few volume scans. This cluster is associated
with an impulse aloft that will cross the area today. Additional
sctd convection beginning to develop ahead of this complex, and
this should continue through the aftn. Recent ARW has backed off
on convective coverage fm its previous run while latest HRRR runs
still indicate at least sctd coverage through the aftn. Adjusted
POPs with a blend of recent HRRR guidance for the remainder of the
day, and may need to fine tune further as things evolve.

The good news is that these showers and storms should help
moderate temperatures for some of the Independence Day
celebrations today. Tweaked hourly temps and dewpoints to bring in
line with recent obs, with minor adjustments through the aftn.
This still keeps heat index values below advisory criteria except
for an isltd spot or two.

Convection expected to decrease by evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Things should be fairly clear for evening
fireworks displays although warm and muggy conditions will
continue.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through most if not all the period. Two
main issues may aid in precipitation development.
First...slightly enhanced southerly flow had increased shower
activity offshore early this morning. This activity has dissipated
but believe isolated coverage of showers and storms will continue
today. This will affect mainly BPT and LCH through the morning and
over LFT and ARA later today. Also...MCS across north Texas will
move southeast through the morning hours and may aid in bringing
scattered thunderstorm activity to central Louisiana. There is
some uncertainty on the impact of this system so for now will have
VCTS for AEX this afternoon. Activity should dissipate by early
evening.

KLCH VWP is showing winds near 30 knots just above the surface.
Winds will be somewhat higher than the past few days...potentially
gusting to near 20 mph this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Additional information for the coastal waters below.

MARINE...
Will be extending the small craft exercise caution headline for
the coastal waters from High Island to Cameron through Tuesday
morning. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 knot range throughout the
period. The exercise caution headline will be dropped at 7 am this
morning for the Cameron to Intracoastal City coastal waters.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Seeing a few showers developing off the Texas coast this early
morning. Some of them are moving onshore and dissipating along or
south of the I-10 corridor of SE TX and SW LA. Meanwhile...a MCS
is seen in north central TX. All of this means there is a better
chance of seeing some rain today...albeit only a 20 to 30 percent
expectation at this point. Typically these nocturnal offshore
showers dont last too far past daybreak...but models all show a
mid-level shortwave coming down to our region this afternoon...so
there may be better coverage than currently advertised...so stay
tuned.

As for todays high temperatures...expecting them to top out in the
mid to upper 90s...unless there is a better rain coverage and it
will be a little bit lower. Based on afternoon dew point
forecast...max afternoon heat indices are in the 104 to 107
range...so just below heat advisory criteria.

For the remainder of the week...it looks like there will be a
small chance for showers and thunderstorms each day...with similar
temperatures each day...highs in the 90s...lows in the 70s. Max
heat indices holding right below heat advisory criteria...but
irregardless...people should take precautions during the hottest
time of the day...drink plenty of water...and minimize the length
of time outdoors in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  80  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  80  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for GMZ450-
     470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19