Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/24/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
805 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at
least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture
will seep into portions of Arizona next week leading to a threat for
showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will initially be limited to
high terrain areas, then finally move towards lower desert
communities later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first semi-organized outflow event of the monsoon season has
essentially dissipated this evening with light dust settling and
winds subsiding. 00z KTWC and KPSR sounding data sampled more robust
moisture towards the top of the boundary layer (near 500-600 mb),
though a substantial dry subcloud layer with only 6-7 g/kg through
the mixing depth. Overall instability was limited to nearly absent,
and normally this type of profile would not support organized
outflows. However, a better defined MCV originating along the
international border was absorbed in the southerly H5 flow allowing
a measure of dynamic support and consolidating evaporative cooling
and downdrafts from virga towards the sfc.

Although the event has ended, resultant conditions have necessitated
rather large adjustments to many salient forecast parameters this
evening throughout central Arizona. Conditions should clear and
stabilize towards the previous forecast later tonight and no major
changes were made beyond that. Otherwise, have allowed the excessive
heat warning to expire understanding temperatures will remain
slightly above average, but nowhere near records or excessive levels
for late June.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016/
For Friday, a short wave on the southern periphery of the large
trough affecting the northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised
to move across the forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE
into southern AZ. However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ,
but enough to mention a slight chance of storms for our higher
terrain areas. For Saturday, we may have another similar situation
as the GFS actually depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an
upper low off the Baja. Like Friday though, the moist advection
looks to be limited due to dry air from the west. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler Friday and Saturday, thus we don`t have any
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On Sunday, an anticyclone becomes
centered near the 4 corners and temps nudge up a bit - flirting with
Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off for now on a Watch especially
in light of potential negating factors associated with convection
(clouds, dew points, etc.).

Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. It seems very plausible we will see moisture
levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a
threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for
now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely
need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will
be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which
days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly
weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels
won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing
storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud
layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any
storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by
the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona
deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Forecasting sfc winds and wind shifts will be the largest problem
for Phoenix area sites through Friday afternoon. Outflow late
Thursday afternoon caused sfc winds to become S/SE, however radar
data suggests some chance of a switch back to a SW direction or
becoming variable later this evening. Overall confidence in timing
wind directions through tonight is low. After becoming predominately
easterly late tonight, timing back to a SW component Friday looks to
similar to Thursday during late morning/early afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Timing wind shifts and determining potential for stronger gusts will
be the primary forecast challenge for SE CA aerodromes through
Friday afternoon. Some measure of a southerly component will be
preferred over the area, however variability will still be a concern
and typical wind shifts may not follow the usual pattern. Confidence
in forecasting specific wind shift times is only low to moderate.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest will bring another
period of well above normal temperatures to the region Sunday and
Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree
range. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing
fires.

Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rains
are expected Tuesday into Thursday as increasing southeasterly flow
aloft begins to increase moisture levels over the region. The best
chances for rainfall will occur over the higher terrain of south-
central AZ. Minimum humidities during the Tue-Thu period will rise
into the 15-25 percent range with fair to good overnight recoveries.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ/Kuhlman
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Percha



  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 310 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION...If you think about it, after such an extremely hot and record setting start to the week, today has been rather pleasant thanks to the extensive cloud cover and areas of virga or sprinkles or light showers. Check out the climate section for a Tucson climatic tidbit. Western Pima county has had plenty of sun and the highs likely will top out in the 105 to 110 range. The activity today possibly associated with the combination of a weakening upper level low that was off the Baja coast yesterday and has weakened as it moved NE toward northern Baja and a weak disturbance aloft that moved in from Sonora. For tonight, except for western Pima county, will maintain isolated sprinkles/light showers into the evening hours. Expect partly cloudy conditions overnight as debris clouds from storms along the Sonora/Chihuahua state line spread north under the southerly flow aloft. Friday...models suggesting that there will be a residual upper level feature around that may help focus storm development with best chance for storms south and east of Tucson. Increased PoPs for these areas. Highs will obviously be warmer for areas that were under extensive cloud cover today. Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal. Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to area being gunked over with debris clouds. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z. An area of layered SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded virga/-SHRA will gradually push northward into this evening. SFC wind generally WLY/NWLY around 10-15 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Expect terrain-driven winds overnight into Friday at less than 10 kts. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are expected again Friday afternoon mainly near terrain E of KTUS to the NM border, with NWLY SFC winds around 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...Here is another climate tidbit. As 3 pm, the high temperature at the airport has been 93 degrees. This would be the 6th coolest high temperature for June 23rd on record and the coolest since 89 degrees in 2000. Additionally the low temperature thus far today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight, be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 302 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...A west to southwest flow aloft will be over Arizona through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will keep the moisture pushed further east into New Mexico with generally drier conditions for northern Arizona. The exception will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White Mountains which will see enough moisture to continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June through the weekend. By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to normal. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through 02z, with erratic gusty outflow winds possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west over the next several days. The coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds. Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday. Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning from Monday onward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MCS AVIATION...Bohlin FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting next week. && .DISCUSSION... An MCV was centered between Tucson and Nogales early this afternoon and was producing spotty showers. Cloud cover has kept lower levels from destabilizing over southeast AZ. Hi-res models have been keeping convection out of our area for today/tonight. However, as the MCV drifts northward, there will be a slight chance of a weak convective shower over our easternmost areas. For Friday, a short wave on the southern periphery of the large trough affecting the northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised to move across the forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE into southern AZ. However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ...but enough to mention slight chance of storms for our higher terrain areas. For Saturday, we may have another similar situation. The GFS actually depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an upper low off Baja. Like Friday though, the moist advection looks to be limited due to dry air from the west. Temps will be slightly cooler Friday and again Saturday thus we don`t have any Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On Sunday, an anticyclone becomes centered near the 4 corners and temps nudge up a bit - flirting with Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off for now on a Watch - especially in light of the X-factors associated with convection (clouds, dew points, etc.). Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Left-over debris cloudiness from thunderstorms over northern Mexico and extreme southeastern AZ will continue to keep mid-high level sct- bkn cloud layers over the PHX area terminals through this evening. then slowly clear later tonight and Friday. Westerly breezes, with gusts as high as 20 kts to continue into this evening, then become easterly later tonight, a little later than usual. Westerly breezes will then return on Friday afternoon, with wind speeds similar to what we are seeing today. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as high as 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts possible during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow typical diurnal trends. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday... Strong high pressure over the desert southwest to bring another period of well-above normal temperatures to the region on Sunday and Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree range each day. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rains is expected from Tuesday into next Thursday as increasing southeasterly flow aloft begins to increase monsoon moisture levels over the region, with the best chances for rainfall being over the higher terrain of south-central AZ. Minimum humidities during the Tue-Thu period to rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ/Kuhlman AVIATION...Percha FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity. && .UPDATE...Drier air has spread into western Arizona today which will limit shower/thunderstorm activity to far eastern Arizona. Any showers/storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds. Elsewhere dry and warm weather continues. No major forecast updates this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /520 AM MST/...Light west to southwesterly flow aloft will keep most moisture to the east and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend. By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity should increase as a result. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based convection. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MCS/Peterson AVIATION...Bohlin FIRE WEATHER...DL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast a little over an hour ago to increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy for the remainder of the morning hours. Radar showed isolated areas of mainly virga/sprinkles from Tucson east and south. Haven`t seen any gauges yet to pick up anything measurable. However the area of slightly stronger showers south of Santa Cruz county likely producing measurable rainfall. This area of showers was pushing to the north. Precipitable water values are up slightly versus 24 hours ago with various sources showing values generally in the 1.0" to 1.2" range with higher values SW of Tucson per blended imagery. Again most of this is above 600 mb. At the surface, dewpoint values were in the 40s to lower 50s. Water vapor imagery this morning showed that the upper low that was west of the Baja Spur yesterday, and which some models yesterday wanted to move to the south today, has lifted NE toward northern Baja. This feature bringing the upper dynamics to produce the virga/sprinkles/light showers across portions of SE AZ and northern Sonora MX. The cloud cover will gradually erode as the day progresses with partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. Still will see isolated areas of virga/sprinkles/light showers into the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two in areas that will have more sunshine. The highs today may also be a touch too warm. Will continue to watch trends over the next several hours before running out another forecast update. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. Layered BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL will gradually decrease in coverage through the afternoon. Isolated -SHRA thru this evening. SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 730 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .UPDATE...Just ran out a quick update to increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy this morning. Kept sprinkles in the forecast this morning, although could see some measurable rain near the International border as an area of showers just south of the border pushes north. Didn`t touch the high temperatures but will evaluate. Another update likely later this morning. && .DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 520 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION...Light westerly flow aloft will keep most moisture to the west and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend. By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity should increase as a result. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible. SFC winds light til 17z then btwn 17z-02z Fri, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based convection. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...DL FIRE WEATHER...DL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions. && .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions. && .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window. Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud coverage from the southeast possible into the AM. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Friday through Tuesday... A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to 20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day, particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures will remain above normal for June. && .DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County. For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no updates are anticipated this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim region each day. Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower elevations next week. && .DISCUSSION... Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south- central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow- off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to current trends. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus, Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area). For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall, temps remain above normal. Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across southeastern Arizona. Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week. With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity. Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized standard deviations. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window. Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud coverage from the southeast possible into the AM. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Friday through Tuesday... A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to 20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day, particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Nolte PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z. SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset. Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895, this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded 5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater. Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today. Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees cooler versus Thursday. Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4- corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above normal. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Meyer Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures will remain above normal for June. && .DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim region each day. Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures will remain above normal for June. && .DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim region each day. Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday. Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today. Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees cooler versus Thursday. Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4- corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z. SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset. Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895, this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded 5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater. Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher 850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha, in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105 degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints (possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the 100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms. Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead. On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then moves southeast across much of the area into east central or southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on timing and location so confidence remains on the low side. Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will continue to be gusty at 20-25 knots through the early evening. Winds will shift to the north and northeast while decreasing to 5-10 knots overnight. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024- 026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Continued above normal temperatures and periodic thunderstorm chances will highlight the next 7 days. Breezy...sunny and hot weather expected today, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Like yesterday, dewpoints should remain in check given drier southwesterly low-level flow, so most heat indices should remain below 105 degrees. However, like yesterday localized downslope component to wind should allow Salina`s temperature to reach around 105 degrees, with heat indices 105-108 degrees, so will hoist a heat advisory today for Saline county. Additionally, given decent 1000-850mb frontogenesis, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening generally along/north of a Great Bend to Salina line. However, suspect minimal upper forcing and modest convective inhibition will likely preclude most if not all thunderstorm activity from forming at all. Same goes for tonight, as an increasingly veered out low-level jet should prevent anything more than very isolated activity at best. Expect a slight increase in thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon and night, as low-level moisture pools along the stalled frontal zone somewhere across central to southern KS. Activity may also be aided by a convectively induced mid/upper disturbance approaching from the west...of which both the NAM and GFS have been forecasting the past few days. Relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread severe weather. Depending on how fast the frontal zone washes out, slight chances for storms could linger into Friday. Given the potential for decreased mixing and increased clouds, temperatures should be a tad cooler Thu-Fri, although still above normal for this time of year. Kleinsasser .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Expecting thunderstorm chances to re-enter the forecast Saturday evening/night over central KS, as another cold front emanating from a strong northern CONUS upper trough approaches the region from the northwest. Slightly better upper forcing expected with this feature as it gives Kansas a glancing blow to the north, so expecting modest thunderstorm chances Saturday evening/night, persisting into Sunday night. Even though widespread severe weather is not expected, somewhat stronger 500-250mb flow may support a slightly more organized severe weather event compared to Thursday afternoon/night. GFS ensemble members along with the ECMWF, operational GFS and GEM support a retrograding mid/upper ridge next week, possibly as far west as the Great Basin. This will allow the stronger belt of mid/upper westerlies and associated frontal zone to become established further south/southwest over the Kansas and Mid- America region, supporting the potential for periodic thunderstorm chances from Monday night on, along with somewhat cooler temperatures through the week, with 80s possible by mid-late week. Kleinsasser && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 A cold front will continue to move south across central and into southeast Kansas through this evening and overnight. The atmosphere is expected to remain capped along the front so will keep the terminals convection free. This will change as we go into Thursday as the front stalls out across southern Kansas. However will only mention VCSH at KRSL for now during the late morning, with better chances for convection holding off until after the forecast valid period late Thursday. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 101 76 96 75 / 0 10 20 30 Hutchinson 102 73 93 74 / 10 10 30 40 Newton 101 74 92 74 / 0 10 30 40 ElDorado 100 74 94 73 / 0 10 30 40 Winfield-KWLD 100 76 97 75 / 0 10 20 20 Russell 99 71 90 72 / 10 10 30 40 Great Bend 101 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40 Salina 105 74 92 74 / 10 10 30 40 McPherson 103 73 93 73 / 10 10 30 40 Coffeyville 98 77 96 74 / 0 0 20 20 Chanute 98 76 94 74 / 0 10 20 30 Iola 97 75 93 73 / 0 10 20 30 Parsons-KPPF 98 76 95 74 / 0 10 20 30 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1116 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Dry and not as hot today with a possibility of isolated to scattered thunderstorms late each afternoon and overnight hours through the end of the work week. The broad high pressure area remains aloft over the southern U.S. with westerly flow across the northern states expected to bring a series of weak disturbances east of the Rockies and across the plains states late each day. These disturbance appear to be artifacts of the convection that forms on the higher terrain each afternoon that subsequently moves east over the plains before dissipating. A cold front moves across the forecast area today, keeping high temperatures nearly 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in some locations across far eastern Colorado. Temperatures across the western portions of the forecast area will be near normal for this time of year while the eastern sections, while not as hot as yesterday, will remain a few degrees above average. With the cold front expected to be south of the forecast area and storms expected to move off the Rockies and across the plains later today, should see isolated thunderstorms move across the southern extent of the forecast area this evening. Storms should continue to transition across the southern sections overnight with a few storms possibly remaining across the southeast sections early Thursday morning. The front that moved through the forecast area on Wednesday will move back north into the the area on Thursday, providing a focus for thunderstorms development during the afternoon and evening hours with storms moving off to the east by early Friday morning. There is a marginal risk of severe storms with isolated severe hail and wind expected. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected late Friday and Friday night as another trough/front moves into the area Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Chances for thunderstorms persist through the majority of the extended period. On Saturday, an upper low deepens as it travels east over the northern Plains from Montana towards the Dakotas. The cold front trailing this system looks to move through the region late Saturday (slower than previous guidance). Thunderstorms are forecast for the afternoon into Saturday night. At this time, better potential for severe weather appears to be northeast of the area where healthier instability and shear are located. Will continue to monitor in upcoming days. High pressure pushes into the High Plains behind the front as it moves south, bringing drier conditions to the region on Sunday. The upper low continues eastward from the Northern Plains and ridging builds over the western CONUS. As the upper trough departs and ridging builds to the west, northwest flow develops aloft early next week. Passing disturbances generate thunderstorm chances across the forecast area Monday and Tuesday, with slightly higher chances on Tuesday when better moisture returns to the region. The warmest temperatures during the extended appear to be on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Slightly "cooler" temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016 VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will continue to be gusty through this afternoon in the wake of and earlier cold frontal passage. Winds will subside by sunset at both locations. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101 degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will not stray far from this. Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small chances west of highway 283. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return, improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon. Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains. Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north will begin favor the better chances for convection across western Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday. Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday, especially in far western Kansas. Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains. At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across western Kansas will be Saturday night. For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal levels for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Cold frontal boundary sliding through SW KS this afternoon with a shift to N/NE surface winds. Although there is instability and moisture convergence associated with this boundary, 700 mb temperatures appear to be too warm to support TSRA development. Kept TAFs dry through this evening with increasing midlayer cloud and NE winds. -TSRA most likely in SE Colorado and near EHA this evening, with perhaps an isolated storm near/west of GCK. Limited impacts if any this evening. Convective impacts to aviation expected to increase on Thursday, as instability and storm coverage increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 101 71 92 70 / 0 10 30 30 GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50 EHA 100 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40 LBL 103 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30 HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50 P28 102 74 95 74 / 0 10 20 20 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher 850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha, in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105 degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints (possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the 100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms. Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead. On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then moves southeast across much of the area into east central or southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on timing and location so confidence remains on the low side. Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. LLWS concerns will diminish this morning as southerly winds quickly increase with gusts of 25-30kts through this afternoon. As a cold front sags southward across the area this evening, winds will shift to the north overnight into Thursday. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 607 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101 degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will not stray far from this. Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small chances west of highway 283. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return, improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon. Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains. Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north will begin favor the better chances for convection across western Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday. Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday, especially in far western Kansas. Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains. At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across western Kansas will be Saturday night. For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal levels for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this evening. Light southwesterly winds will turn north-northeast 10 to 20kt this afternoon as a weak cold front moves slowly southeast across western Kansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 100 71 92 70 / 10 10 30 30 GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50 EHA 99 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40 LBL 102 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30 HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50 P28 102 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher 850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha, in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105 degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints (possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the 100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms. Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead. On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then moves southeast across much of the area into east central or southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on timing and location so confidence remains on the low side. Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 A few minor adjustments to timing, mixing out winds around 14z and added winds decreasing as boundary sags into the area in the afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions expected. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 253 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...Updated Short term and Long term discussions... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101 degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will not stray far from this. Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small chances west of highway 283. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return, improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon. Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains. Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north will begin favor the better chances for convection across western Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday. Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday, especially in far western Kansas. Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains. At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across western Kansas will be Saturday night. For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal levels for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016 South to southwest winds will continue overnight into early Wednesday at around 15 knots. These winds will decrease to around 10 knots by the early afternoon as a surface cold front moves into southwest Kansas between 18z and 21z Wednesday. This frontal boundary will then drift slowly south through the remainder of the day. At this time this frontal boundary will be south of GCK and HYS and by 21z Wednesday. This boundary will then move south and east of DDC between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. As this frontal boundary passes the southwest wind will shift to the west....and then northwest. These winds will eventually shift to the north northeast. VFR conditions are expected today. Mid to high level moisture will start to increase from west to east after 00z Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 100 71 92 70 / 10 10 30 30 GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50 EHA 99 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40 LBL 102 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30 HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50 P28 102 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 211 AM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will be around through the weekend into next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run near normal. && .DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor satellite imagery and upper level observations depict mid/upper level high pressure centers over north/central Texas and near 30N/120W with Arizona in weak troughing between these two highs. Remnant convection across Sonora is weakening this morning but with broad mid to upper level southerly flow, skies are partly to mostly cloudy at this time from Sells eastward. These clouds are expected to gradually diminish as the morning progresses although they could persist a bit longer especially over Cochise County. Meanwhile, the greatest moisture and instability is expected to be along the international border this afternoon and have focused the higher pops along these areas in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. We`ll just need to keep an eye on the lingering clouds perhaps persisting longer than anticipated and keeping instability down, especially in Cochise County. With the bulk of the moisture above 600 mb and high dewpoint depressions, any convection may produce gusty outflow winds. Thereafter, a complex of storms may form tonight across Sonora and push outflow northward into southeast Arizona with perhaps a bit of increased low level moisture. In addition, a weak mid level disturbance will perhaps aid in convective initiation with shower and thunderstorms coverage in areas a bit farther northward on Saturday though still favoring areas from Tucson eastward and southward. Gusty outflow winds and perhaps localized blowing dust might be an issue but due to low confidence have left out of the forecast. Looking out from Sunday and into next week, the mid to upper level high is expected to setup in a favorable position near the four corners through about Wednesday with some differences beyond. Expect perhaps an uptick in storm coverage in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as southeast Arizona is on the northern periphery of an inverted trough. Bottom line is a general ramp up in coverage through the weekend which will persist next week. It will then just become more of the typical diurnal difficulties of determining which days are the more active ones. Temperatures will generally remain near normal though the forecast period. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will develop around 17Z-19Z today mainly east-to-south of KTUS, and continue into this evening. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur late tonight into early Saturday morning, again mainly east-to-south of KTUS. Otherwise, cloud decks will generally range from 10k-15k ft msl. Surface wind this afternoon will be wly/nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts. Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across southeast Arizona through next Thursday. The best chance of wetting rains during much of the period will be east-to- south of Tucson. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent with fair to good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds through Sunday as well as next Wednesday and Thursday will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Monday and Tuesday will generally be from the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest speeds Monday and Tuesday should prevail from shortly after sunrise into the early afternoon hours. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Public...GL Aviation/Fire Weather...Francis Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 943 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Light shower activity continues in the White Mountains, and along and south of the eastern Mogollon Rim. These showers are associated with the remnants of an MCS that developed in southern Arizona during the day. Much of our shorter term model guidance suggests these light showers will continue through the overnight hours while spreading northward into central Navajo and Apache Counties. Have expanded the coverage of slight chances for showers to account for this. Otherwise, the current forecast looks good and no further updates are anticipated at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /302 PM MST/...A west to southwest flow aloft will be over Arizona through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will keep the moisture pushed further east into New Mexico with generally drier conditions for northern Arizona. The exception will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White Mountains which will see enough moisture to continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June through the weekend. By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to normal. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Chances for thunderstorms are forecast from 17Z Fri to 03Z Sat, primarily within the White Mountains region. Strong and erratic winds are possible near storms. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west over the next several days. The coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds. Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday. Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning from Monday onward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/MCS AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 920 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION...It has been a very quiet afternoon and evening as a remnant weak mid-level disturbance slowly tracked from south to north across Southeast Arizona most of the day. The 24/00z KTWC sounding indicated that there was plenty of mid-level moisture around, but little lower-level moisture. For this reason, the majority of the forecast area experienced a relatively cool and cloudy day with only a few sprinkles here and there. The Tucson International Airport managed to get up to 98 degs F this afternoon...only because the sun came out toward the late afternoon. Otherwise, temps remained in the 90s for most of the day. The upper-level pattern is defined by an mid-to-upper high over New Mexico and northern Chihuahua Mexico, and a weak upper trough extended across Southern California and the Northern Baja. May see another weak mid-level disturbance move north along the Arizona/New Mexico border tonight resulting in cloudy skies and a few sprinkles. The upper trough begins to slowly drift east over the next 24 hours, enhancing the mid-upper level lift across south central Arizona. Since the eastern zones may be negatively influenced by a departing weak disturbance, the favored area for storms tomorrow looks to be mainly south of Tucson. Given the dry-lower levels, strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal. Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to area being gunked over with debris clouds. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z. Generally SCT mid-level clouds around 12-15k ft with BKN-OVC high clouds above 20k ft across the majority of Southeast Arizona into Friday. SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded virga/- SHRA will gradually push northward into locations mainly east of Tucson overnight tonight through Friday afternoon. Expect generally terrain-driven winds overnight into Friday morning less than 10 kts...becoming west to southwest 10-15 kts Friday afternoon. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are expected again Friday afternoon mainly south Tucson with strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows to 40 kts associated with storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...The low temperature at KTUS thus far today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight, be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 920 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION...It has been a very quiet afternoon and evening as a remnant weak mid-level disturbance slowly tracked from south to north across Southeast Arizona most of the day. The 24/00z KTWC sounding indicated that there was plenty of mid-level moisture around, but little lower-level moisture. For this reason, the majority of the forecast area experienced a relatively cool and cloudy day with only a few sprinkles here and there. The Tucson International Airport managed to get up to 98 degs F this afternoon...only because the sun came out toward the late afternoon. Otherwise, temps remained in the 90s for most of the day. The upper-level pattern is defined by an mid-to-upper high over New Mexico and northern Chihuahua Mexico, and a weak upper trough extended across Southern California and the Northern Baja. May see another weak mid-level disturbance move north along the Arizona/New Mexico border tonight resulting in cloudy skies and a few sprinkles. The upper trough begins to slowly drift east over the next 24 hours, enhancing the mid-upper level lift across south central Arizona. Since the eastern zones may be negatively influenced by a departing weak disturbance, the favored area for storms tomorrow looks to be mainly south of Tucson. Given the dry-lower levels, strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal. Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to area being gunked over with debris clouds. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z. Generally SCT mid-level clouds around 12-15k ft with BKN-OVC high clouds above 20k ft across the majority of Southeast Arizona into Friday. SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded virga/- SHRA will gradually push northward into locations mainly east of Tucson overnight tonight through Friday afternoon. Expect generally terrain-driven winds overnight into Friday morning less than 10 kts...becoming west to southwest 10-15 kts Friday afternoon. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are expected again Friday afternoon mainly south Tucson with strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows to 40 kts associated with storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...The low temperature at KTUS thus far today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight, be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 805 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture will seep into portions of Arizona next week leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will initially be limited to high terrain areas, then finally move towards lower desert communities later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... The first semi-organized outflow event of the monsoon season has essentially dissipated this evening with light dust settling and winds subsiding. 00z KTWC and KPSR sounding data sampled more robust moisture towards the top of the boundary layer (near 500-600 mb), though a substantial dry subcloud layer with only 6-7 g/kg through the mixing depth. Overall instability was limited to nearly absent, and normally this type of profile would not support organized outflows. However, a better defined MCV originating along the international border was absorbed in the southerly H5 flow allowing a measure of dynamic support and consolidating evaporative cooling and downdrafts from virga towards the sfc. Although the event has ended, resultant conditions have necessitated rather large adjustments to many salient forecast parameters this evening throughout central Arizona. Conditions should clear and stabilize towards the previous forecast later tonight and no major changes were made beyond that. Otherwise, have allowed the excessive heat warning to expire understanding temperatures will remain slightly above average, but nowhere near records or excessive levels for late June. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016/ For Friday, a short wave on the southern periphery of the large trough affecting the northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised to move across the forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE into southern AZ. However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ, but enough to mention a slight chance of storms for our higher terrain areas. For Saturday, we may have another similar situation as the GFS actually depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an upper low off the Baja. Like Friday though, the moist advection looks to be limited due to dry air from the west. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Friday and Saturday, thus we don`t have any Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On Sunday, an anticyclone becomes centered near the 4 corners and temps nudge up a bit - flirting with Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off for now on a Watch especially in light of potential negating factors associated with convection (clouds, dew points, etc.). Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. It seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Forecasting sfc winds and wind shifts will be the largest problem for Phoenix area sites through Friday afternoon. Outflow late Thursday afternoon caused sfc winds to become S/SE, however radar data suggests some chance of a switch back to a SW direction or becoming variable later this evening. Overall confidence in timing wind directions through tonight is low. After becoming predominately easterly late tonight, timing back to a SW component Friday looks to similar to Thursday during late morning/early afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Timing wind shifts and determining potential for stronger gusts will be the primary forecast challenge for SE CA aerodromes through Friday afternoon. Some measure of a southerly component will be preferred over the area, however variability will still be a concern and typical wind shifts may not follow the usual pattern. Confidence in forecasting specific wind shift times is only low to moderate. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday... Strong high pressure over the desert southwest will bring another period of well above normal temperatures to the region Sunday and Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree range. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rains are expected Tuesday into Thursday as increasing southeasterly flow aloft begins to increase moisture levels over the region. The best chances for rainfall will occur over the higher terrain of south- central AZ. Minimum humidities during the Tue-Thu period will rise into the 15-25 percent range with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...MO/AJ/Kuhlman AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 310 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION...If you think about it, after such an extremely hot and record setting start to the week, today has been rather pleasant thanks to the extensive cloud cover and areas of virga or sprinkles or light showers. Check out the climate section for a Tucson climatic tidbit. Western Pima county has had plenty of sun and the highs likely will top out in the 105 to 110 range. The activity today possibly associated with the combination of a weakening upper level low that was off the Baja coast yesterday and has weakened as it moved NE toward northern Baja and a weak disturbance aloft that moved in from Sonora. For tonight, except for western Pima county, will maintain isolated sprinkles/light showers into the evening hours. Expect partly cloudy conditions overnight as debris clouds from storms along the Sonora/Chihuahua state line spread north under the southerly flow aloft. Friday...models suggesting that there will be a residual upper level feature around that may help focus storm development with best chance for storms south and east of Tucson. Increased PoPs for these areas. Highs will obviously be warmer for areas that were under extensive cloud cover today. Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal. Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to area being gunked over with debris clouds. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z. An area of layered SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded virga/-SHRA will gradually push northward into this evening. SFC wind generally WLY/NWLY around 10-15 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Expect terrain-driven winds overnight into Friday at less than 10 kts. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are expected again Friday afternoon mainly near terrain E of KTUS to the NM border, with NWLY SFC winds around 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...Here is another climate tidbit. As 3 pm, the high temperature at the airport has been 93 degrees. This would be the 6th coolest high temperature for June 23rd on record and the coolest since 89 degrees in 2000. Additionally the low temperature thus far today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight, be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 302 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...A west to southwest flow aloft will be over Arizona through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will keep the moisture pushed further east into New Mexico with generally drier conditions for northern Arizona. The exception will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White Mountains which will see enough moisture to continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June through the weekend. By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to normal. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through 02z, with erratic gusty outflow winds possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west over the next several days. The coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds. Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday. Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning from Monday onward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MCS AVIATION...Bohlin FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting next week. && .DISCUSSION... An MCV was centered between Tucson and Nogales early this afternoon and was producing spotty showers. Cloud cover has kept lower levels from destabilizing over southeast AZ. Hi-res models have been keeping convection out of our area for today/tonight. However, as the MCV drifts northward, there will be a slight chance of a weak convective shower over our easternmost areas. For Friday, a short wave on the southern periphery of the large trough affecting the northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised to move across the forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE into southern AZ. However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ...but enough to mention slight chance of storms for our higher terrain areas. For Saturday, we may have another similar situation. The GFS actually depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an upper low off Baja. Like Friday though, the moist advection looks to be limited due to dry air from the west. Temps will be slightly cooler Friday and again Saturday thus we don`t have any Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On Sunday, an anticyclone becomes centered near the 4 corners and temps nudge up a bit - flirting with Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off for now on a Watch - especially in light of the X-factors associated with convection (clouds, dew points, etc.). Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Left-over debris cloudiness from thunderstorms over northern Mexico and extreme southeastern AZ will continue to keep mid-high level sct- bkn cloud layers over the PHX area terminals through this evening. then slowly clear later tonight and Friday. Westerly breezes, with gusts as high as 20 kts to continue into this evening, then become easterly later tonight, a little later than usual. Westerly breezes will then return on Friday afternoon, with wind speeds similar to what we are seeing today. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as high as 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts possible during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow typical diurnal trends. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday... Strong high pressure over the desert southwest to bring another period of well-above normal temperatures to the region on Sunday and Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree range each day. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rains is expected from Tuesday into next Thursday as increasing southeasterly flow aloft begins to increase monsoon moisture levels over the region, with the best chances for rainfall being over the higher terrain of south-central AZ. Minimum humidities during the Tue-Thu period to rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ/Kuhlman AVIATION...Percha FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity. && .UPDATE...Drier air has spread into western Arizona today which will limit shower/thunderstorm activity to far eastern Arizona. Any showers/storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds. Elsewhere dry and warm weather continues. No major forecast updates this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /520 AM MST/...Light west to southwesterly flow aloft will keep most moisture to the east and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend. By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity should increase as a result. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based convection. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MCS/Peterson AVIATION...Bohlin FIRE WEATHER...DL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast a little over an hour ago to increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy for the remainder of the morning hours. Radar showed isolated areas of mainly virga/sprinkles from Tucson east and south. Haven`t seen any gauges yet to pick up anything measurable. However the area of slightly stronger showers south of Santa Cruz county likely producing measurable rainfall. This area of showers was pushing to the north. Precipitable water values are up slightly versus 24 hours ago with various sources showing values generally in the 1.0" to 1.2" range with higher values SW of Tucson per blended imagery. Again most of this is above 600 mb. At the surface, dewpoint values were in the 40s to lower 50s. Water vapor imagery this morning showed that the upper low that was west of the Baja Spur yesterday, and which some models yesterday wanted to move to the south today, has lifted NE toward northern Baja. This feature bringing the upper dynamics to produce the virga/sprinkles/light showers across portions of SE AZ and northern Sonora MX. The cloud cover will gradually erode as the day progresses with partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. Still will see isolated areas of virga/sprinkles/light showers into the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two in areas that will have more sunshine. The highs today may also be a touch too warm. Will continue to watch trends over the next several hours before running out another forecast update. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. Layered BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL will gradually decrease in coverage through the afternoon. Isolated -SHRA thru this evening. SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 730 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .UPDATE...Just ran out a quick update to increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy this morning. Kept sprinkles in the forecast this morning, although could see some measurable rain near the International border as an area of showers just south of the border pushes north. Didn`t touch the high temperatures but will evaluate. Another update likely later this morning. && .DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 520 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION...Light westerly flow aloft will keep most moisture to the west and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend. By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity should increase as a result. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible. SFC winds light til 17z then btwn 17z-02z Fri, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based convection. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...DL FIRE WEATHER...DL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions. && .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions. && .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes occasionally reaching 20 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re- established across the desert southwest through early next week. In addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes, which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Hirsch FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to expire. A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east- central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal. Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures slightly lower than currently forecast. Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window. Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud coverage from the southeast possible into the AM. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Friday through Tuesday... A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to 20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day, particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures will remain above normal for June. && .DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County. For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no updates are anticipated this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim region each day. Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower elevations next week. && .DISCUSSION... Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south- central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow- off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to current trends. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus, Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area). For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall, temps remain above normal. Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across southeastern Arizona. Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week. With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity. Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized standard deviations. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window. Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud coverage from the southeast possible into the AM. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Friday through Tuesday... A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to 20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day, particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Nolte PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch AVIATION...Nolte FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z. SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset. Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895, this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded 5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater. Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today. Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees cooler versus Thursday. Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4- corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above normal. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Meyer Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures will remain above normal for June. && .DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim region each day. Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures will remain above normal for June. && .DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon Rim region each day. Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal. Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday. Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today. Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees cooler versus Thursday. Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4- corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z. SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset. Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895, this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded 5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater. Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
404 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Early this morning a broad mid-level ridge remained in place across the central and southern U.S. with water vapor imagery showing an embedded shortwave over western Kansas that was helping to support a cluster of early morning storms across southwest and south central Kansas. At the surface, a warm front was stretched across east central Kansas with a few scattered showers and storms noted south of this boundary across southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri. Models show this warm front slowly lifting northward across the CWA today. As the shortwave over western Kansas advances into eastern Kansas this morning with the warm front nearby, short-range models show the potential for some scattered storms to develop across central and east central Kansas this morning and lift northward into north central and northeast Kansas through the day. Forcing looks to be fairly weak with barely 20kts of 0-6km bulk shear through the day. While 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE may be present, the weak forcing and weak shear should keep storms sub-severe today. Due to the uncertainty in the coverage of thunderstorm development amongst the short-range models, have only slight to chance PoPs in for today. With the warm front lifting into extreme northeast Kansas by early this evening, any lingering isolated to scattered storms should be focused near the NE/KS border. As a result, have PoPs diminishing from south to north this evening and expect that much of the CWA should remain predominantly dry. Another embedded shortwave is expected to develop overnight across northwest and north central Kansas with some isentropic lift noted across north central Kansas. While there may not be much moisture present yet over north central Kansas overnight into Saturday morning, felt that with the isentropic lift in place it was worth keeping some slight chance PoPs over far north central Kansas. Despite some scattered low/mid-level clouds today, expect the breezy southerly winds to aid in warm-air advection enough to support afternoon high temperatures in the low/mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. The persistent southerly winds and scattered cloud cover should keep overnight low temperatures a bit warmer with lows only dropping into the low/mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 On Saturday, a strong upper trough will move along the Canadian border, and will be strong enough to push a cold front into the forecast area. Saturday will be hot as the thermal axis immediately in advance of the cold front builds from SW into NE Kansas. Models are in strong agreement with the timing of the front entering the area after peak heating, but there is also an expectation for storms and clouds to develop along the front and possibly cool temperatures just slightly by late day. Regardless, expect highs in the upper 90s in central KS to the middle 90s in eastern KS. Dewpoints will probably mix out a bit in this environment as well so expect max heat indices in the 98-104 range. Strong convergence along the front will likely lead to thunderstorm development, and those storms are likely to continue as the front pushes southeast into the area although it is uncertain just how widespread the coverage will remain overnight. Moderate instability is expected with weak and disorganized shear profiles. For the most part, will probably be looking for non- severe storms although in the expected hot environment, there is always that chance for sporadic severe downbursts with the strongest storms, and also some low end potential for organized bowing segments to develop with attendant wind threat. For now though, the severe risk appears marginal and is reflected as such in the SPC outlook. The cold front is likely to stall over southern parts of the area on Sunday with a rather unstable airmass expected to linger through Sunday evening. There are model suggestions of a weak short wave trough moving along the front on Sunday which could trigger another round of thunderstorm development...again in the moderate CAPE/low shear environment. A very similar scenario seems likely to play out for Monday. So, while the chances for widespread thunderstorms are not outstanding each day, the low level focus exists with some potential for upper support and have kept precip chances in the area through the period. The flow pattern becomes more northwesterly by Tuesday with cooler air filtering into northeast KS and highs finally expected to drop back into the 80s. A well-organized short wave trough is expected to move across the area from NW to SE Wednesday into Thursday and will provide the area with several chances for thunderstorms. Wind shear will be much better with this system so will want to watch the period for severe potential. Otherwise expect generally cooler temperatures through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Will keep VFR forecast at this time but note thunderstorms may be near terminals periodically Friday. Enough time for next issuance to take a look but at this time confidence too low to add to forecast. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...67
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 300 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 222 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016 As the upper ridge over the plains shifts east ahead of the upper low moving east through Montana along the U.S./Canada border, a short wave trough embedded in the upper flow moves off the central Rockies and across the central high plains region during the evening and overnight hours tonight. During this time a prefrontal trough deepens along the front range ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the forecast area early Saturday. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain to the west and move over a more favorable instability environment with more available moisture east of the deepening surface trough this evening with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.High temperatures today with southerly flow ahead of the surface trough will be well into the 90s. High temperatures on Saturday following the cold front will be in the 80s to lower 90s. On Saturday there may be a few lingering early morning showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of the forecast area. Isolated storms are expected to redevelop and become scattered over the far eastern sections of the forecast area by afternoon along and ahead of the cold front where there is a more favorable shear profile and greater instability and available moisture. There is still only a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the southeast portion of the forecast area in the vicinity of the front. Expect highs to be back into the lower 90s on Sunday with weak westerly flow aloft and high pressure at the surface in the wake of the cold front. A few thunderstorms are being hinted at mainly along the southern extent of the forecast area in closer proximity to the stationary boundary, but have gone mostly dry across the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016 The extended period has a very dominate ridge sitting over the western CONUS with a closed low over the far northeastern states. There is also a closed low that is sitting over the North Pacific that tries to push east, but the ridge is very strong and it doesn`t make much of a dent until Friday. As for the CWA, there are chances for precipitation everyday; with best chances on Monday and Wednesday; but still favorable chances Tuesday and Thursday. MUCAPE values get up to 2300 J/kg Monday with bulk shear around 30 kts. Wednesday has MUCAPE values of around 3500 J/kg and bulk shear up to 50 kts. In addition, Tuesday and Wednesday show to have 700 mb shortwaves that push over the region crating better lift. Overall, precipitation chances are expected next week but exact timing and intensity will become more clear as the days get closer. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1144 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may still be possible, however confidence that this would impact KGLD has greatly diminished and trends on radar have been towards current activity weakening before reaching KMCK. Fog/stratus may be possible in eastern Colorado by 12z, but confidence is low that this would reach KGLD and VFR conditions were prevailed. Winds should increase during the afternoon Friday before decreasing again around sunset. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...CLT AVIATION...DR
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 346 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Another MCV may be developing across the area early this morning, however, it should be exiting the forecast area by sunrise. As the leftover outflow boundary will be likely well off to the east of our area and subsidence settles in across the area, a dry forecast is in place for the rest of the day. The models once again develop higher terrain surface based storms late in the day, that with weak steering flow remain in eastern Colorado and as far east as northwest Kansas by the late evening. The outflow may not modify the highs as much today as the cloud cover seemed to on Thursday, as it is more likely longer duration insolation should be seen today. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 The next chance for focused thunderstorm development appears in the late Saturday timeframe, along a surface boundary that straddles the forecast area. These storms would likely not have significant shear or steering also and might be tied to the boundary unless they can develop a cold pool. At the same time, a closed low is shown by the models to be moving through the northern Plains, maintaining a nearly zonal flow aloft across the central Plains. Beyond that, mesoscale features become increasingly difficult to infer from the larger pattern, however the upper ridge does begin to redevelop into mid week, supporting the warmer temperatures in the 90s we`ve seen so far. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions will prevail this evening with the possibility of a squall line moving through the area overnight. If this squall line comes to fruition, periods of MVFR conditions will be observed. Winds will generally be from the east southeast at less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 94 MMM 95 68 / 20 10 20 40 GCK 95 MMM 95 67 / 20 20 20 20 EHA 95 MMM 95 67 / 20 20 20 30 LBL 96 MMM 97 68 / 20 10 20 30 HYS 94 MMM 94 66 / 20 20 30 30 P28 95 MMM 97 73 / 20 0 10 20 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Hovorka_42
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Wichita KS 345 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Forecast Highlight: Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru next Thu. Today: A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border throughout the night. Along & north of the front, thunderstorms havebeen ongoing, the majority of which are the remnants of a weakening MCS moving slowly east over SW KS. However, a north/south oriented cluster of thunderstorms is slowly expanding from Kay County OK to Butler County very close to a weak low-level jet. With a strong mid-upper ridge situated from the Srn Plains to Nebraska & IA, mid-level flow has been weak. As such locally heavy rains have occurred, most notably Kay County OK but rainfall rates are also increasing in Sumner & Butler counties. As a lower-deck trof slowly strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850 mb moisture axis would shift slowly east across Ern KS. As such thunderstorms should be confined to primarily SE KS this afternoon. Tonight: As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would be the nwrn-most counties (Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead mid- level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS border will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As such a few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties very early Sat Morning. Rest of the Weekend: An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA & OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner across KS interacting with a very moist airmass, thunderstorms would be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited forecast addresses this situaton and was therefore kept intact. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be, but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs may be possible. After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm front. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 94 74 98 76 / 30 10 10 30 Hutchinson 95 74 99 74 / 30 10 10 40 Newton 93 73 97 75 / 30 10 10 30 ElDorado 93 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 30 Winfield-KWLD 94 74 96 77 / 30 10 10 20 Russell 95 74 99 70 / 20 20 40 60 Great Bend 96 74 99 70 / 20 20 30 60 Salina 95 75 100 73 / 20 10 20 50 McPherson 95 74 99 74 / 20 10 20 40 Coffeyville 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 Chanute 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 20 Iola 91 72 94 74 / 40 10 10 20 Parsons-KPPF 92 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Wichita KS 345 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Forecast Highlight: Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru next Thu. Today: A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border throughout the night. Along & north of the front, thunderstorms havebeen ongoing, the majority of which are the remnants of a weakening MCS moving slowly east over SW KS. However, a north/south oriented cluster of thunderstorms is slowly expanding from Kay County OK to Butler County very close to a weak low-level jet. With a strong mid-upper ridge situated from the Srn Plains to Nebraska & IA, mid-level flow has been weak. As such locally heavy rains have occurred, most notably Kay County OK but rainfall rates are also increasing in Sumner & Butler counties. As a lower-deck trof slowly strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850 mb moisture axis would shift slowly east across Ern KS. As such thunderstorms should be confined to primarily SE KS this afternoon. Tonight: As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would be the nwrn-most counties (Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead mid- level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS border will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As such a few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties very early Sat Morning. Rest of the Weekend: An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA & OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner across KS interacting with a very moist airmass, thunderstorms would be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited forecast addresses this situaton and was therefore kept intact. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be, but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs may be possible. After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm front. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 94 74 98 76 / 30 10 10 30 Hutchinson 95 74 99 74 / 30 10 10 40 Newton 93 73 97 75 / 30 10 10 30 ElDorado 93 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 30 Winfield-KWLD 94 74 96 77 / 30 10 10 20 Russell 95 74 99 70 / 20 20 40 60 Great Bend 96 74 99 70 / 20 20 30 60 Salina 95 75 100 73 / 20 10 20 50 McPherson 95 74 99 74 / 20 10 20 40 Coffeyville 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 Chanute 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 20 Iola 91 72 94 74 / 40 10 10 20 Parsons-KPPF 92 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Forecast Highlight: Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru next Thu. Today: A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border throughout the night. Along & north of the front, the majority of which are the remnants of a weakening MCS moving slowly east over SW KS. However, a north/south oriented cluster of thunderstorms is slowly expanding from Kay County OK to Butler County very close to a weak low-level jet. With a strong mid- upper ridge situated from the Srn Plains to Nebraska & IA mid-level flow has been weak. As such locally heavy rains have occurred, most notably Kay County OK but rainfall rates are also increasing in Sumner & Butler counties. As a lower-deck trof slowly strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850 mb moisture axis would shift slowly east across Ern KS. As such the rain should be confined to SE KS this afternoon. Tonight: As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would be the nwrn-most counties, Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead mid-level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS border will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As such a few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties very early Sat Morning. Rest of the Weekend: An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA & OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner across KS interacting with a very moist airmass thunderstorms would be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited forecast was kept intact. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be, but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs may be possible. After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm front. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 94 74 98 76 / 30 10 10 30 Hutchinson 95 74 99 74 / 30 10 10 40 Newton 93 73 97 75 / 30 10 10 30 ElDorado 93 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 30 Winfield-KWLD 94 74 96 77 / 30 10 10 20 Russell 95 74 99 70 / 20 20 40 60 Great Bend 96 74 99 70 / 20 20 30 60 Salina 95 75 100 73 / 20 10 20 50 McPherson 95 74 99 74 / 20 10 20 40 Coffeyville 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 Chanute 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 20 Iola 91 72 94 74 / 40 10 10 20 Parsons-KPPF 92 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1144 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Ongoing early morning convective activity continues eastward across southwest KS today along a frontal boundary that extends eastward into western Missouri and is laid up along the front range on the western side. Convective activity is expected to reinitiates later today along the front range and frontal boundary where moisture has pooled and the instability axis is located. Scattered storms will move east across the region overnight. The is currently a slight risk of severe storms over east central Colorado extending into west central Kansas. The main threat will be winds and large hail with some localized heavy rainfall possibly producing some flash flooding during the evening hours. The stronger westerly flow aloft remains well north of the forecast area, but several weaker short wave trough move east of the Rockies and across the central high plains through the short term period. These short waves are appearing as diurnally driven convective feedback features in the models as each of them seem to appear over the higher terrain late each afternoon and move east over the plains states during the afternoon and overnight hours as they weaken downstream. As a result, expect isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms to move across the forecast area again Friday and Saturday. Additionally a cold front will move across the central high plains region during the day on Saturday in advance of the upper low moving east of the northern Rockies and across the northern high plains in the vicinity of U.S./Canada border. This will provide a good focus for afternoon storms on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs rising well into the 90s again on Friday, and backing off somewhat into the 80s and lower 90s again on Saturday with the passage of the cold front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Forecast issues will be chances of precipitation through the period and high temperatures. Satellite showing an amplified flow across the Pacific to along the west coast of North America. The flow flattens out over the country with a broad ridge across the southern portion and lesser ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northern portion. Models differ with details on shortwave troughs through the Friday night through Sunday period. Models are suffering a lot from convective feedback and am thinking that they are overdoing the convection/qpf, especially from the end of Saturday night into Sunday. In cases would like to have made some specific periods dry but collaboration is keeping some kind of mention of thunderstorms in the forecast through the entire period. Friday night...Shortwave trough is near the western end of the later at beginning of the period with surface convergence near or just west. Problem is that 700 mb are plus 16 to 17. At this time will confine a slight chance to the far west initially. Expect thunderstorms to work their way east across the area as shortwave moves across. After midnight another shortwave trough moves at the same time the front moves through. This looks to either redevelop precipitation or keep it going through the rest of the night. Saturday/Saturday night...There looks to be ongoing thunderstorms in at the start of the morning. Question then becomes how much thunderstorm activity will be around in afternoon and night. Right rear quadrant of upper jet begins to affect the area in the afternoon and continues into the evening hours. However, you would think that the front and second shortwave should be pushing the moisture and thunderstorms out of the area by mid to late afternoon. At this time will keep something in the southeast half but am thinking the models are overdoing the qpf. Front will cool temperatures off about 5 to 10 degrees. Tended to go toward the slightly cooler guidance. Sunday...Was briefed that this period would be dry. However, a number of minor waves, some convectively induced, look to sporadically produce precipitation. Uncertainty and collaboration have kept some kind of pops in here. My gut feeling this day will be dry. Sunday night through Thursday...Model disagreement starts at the beginning of this period and gets worse with time. It involves the system moving from south central into eastern Canada and the resulting troughing over the eastern portion of the country. It also involves how the models handle the troughiness along the west coast. The handling or mishandling of these features affects the amplitude and the position of the western ridge. This ridge moves west with time and models typically have difficulty in retrogressing patterns. Models last week also had trouble with a similar setup. No matter which model you choose there looks to be numerous, hard time, shortwave troughs moving through in this flow. There looks to be waffling stationary boundary across the area during this time and because of the differences aloft, they differ on where they put this boundary. As a result the extended gave me slight chance to chance pops. Give the pattern, the uncertainty, and near impossibility of getting the details right at this time scale, have no problem in keeping those pops with only cosmetic changes. This period does have the potential to be active and wet. Also a result of the uncertainty, left the temperatures alone as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1144 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may still be possible, however confidence that this would impact KGLD has greatly diminished and trends on radar have been towards current activity weakening before reaching KMCK. Fog/stratus may be possible in eastern Colorado by 12z, but confidence is low that this would reach KGLD and VFR conditions were prevailed. Winds should increase during the afternoon Friday before decreasing again around sunset. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1144 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Ongoing early morning convective activity continues eastward across southwest KS today along a frontal boundary that extends eastward into western Missouri and is laid up along the front range on the western side. Convective activity is expected to reinitiates later today along the front range and frontal boundary where moisture has pooled and the instability axis is located. Scattered storms will move east across the region overnight. The is currently a slight risk of severe storms over east central Colorado extending into west central Kansas. The main threat will be winds and large hail with some localized heavy rainfall possibly producing some flash flooding during the evening hours. The stronger westerly flow aloft remains well north of the forecast area, but several weaker short wave trough move east of the Rockies and across the central high plains through the short term period. These short waves are appearing as diurnally driven convective feedback features in the models as each of them seem to appear over the higher terrain late each afternoon and move east over the plains states during the afternoon and overnight hours as they weaken downstream. As a result, expect isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms to move across the forecast area again Friday and Saturday. Additionally a cold front will move across the central high plains region during the day on Saturday in advance of the upper low moving east of the northern Rockies and across the northern high plains in the vicinity of U.S./Canada border. This will provide a good focus for afternoon storms on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs rising well into the 90s again on Friday, and backing off somewhat into the 80s and lower 90s again on Saturday with the passage of the cold front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Forecast issues will be chances of precipitation through the period and high temperatures. Satellite showing an amplified flow across the Pacific to along the west coast of North America. The flow flattens out over the country with a broad ridge across the southern portion and lesser ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northern portion. Models differ with details on shortwave troughs through the Friday night through Sunday period. Models are suffering a lot from convective feedback and am thinking that they are overdoing the convection/qpf, especially from the end of Saturday night into Sunday. In cases would like to have made some specific periods dry but collaboration is keeping some kind of mention of thunderstorms in the forecast through the entire period. Friday night...Shortwave trough is near the western end of the later at beginning of the period with surface convergence near or just west. Problem is that 700 mb are plus 16 to 17. At this time will confine a slight chance to the far west initially. Expect thunderstorms to work their way east across the area as shortwave moves across. After midnight another shortwave trough moves at the same time the front moves through. This looks to either redevelop precipitation or keep it going through the rest of the night. Saturday/Saturday night...There looks to be ongoing thunderstorms in at the start of the morning. Question then becomes how much thunderstorm activity will be around in afternoon and night. Right rear quadrant of upper jet begins to affect the area in the afternoon and continues into the evening hours. However, you would think that the front and second shortwave should be pushing the moisture and thunderstorms out of the area by mid to late afternoon. At this time will keep something in the southeast half but am thinking the models are overdoing the qpf. Front will cool temperatures off about 5 to 10 degrees. Tended to go toward the slightly cooler guidance. Sunday...Was briefed that this period would be dry. However, a number of minor waves, some convectively induced, look to sporadically produce precipitation. Uncertainty and collaboration have kept some kind of pops in here. My gut feeling this day will be dry. Sunday night through Thursday...Model disagreement starts at the beginning of this period and gets worse with time. It involves the system moving from south central into eastern Canada and the resulting troughing over the eastern portion of the country. It also involves how the models handle the troughiness along the west coast. The handling or mishandling of these features affects the amplitude and the position of the western ridge. This ridge moves west with time and models typically have difficulty in retrogressing patterns. Models last week also had trouble with a similar setup. No matter which model you choose there looks to be numerous, hard time, shortwave troughs moving through in this flow. There looks to be waffling stationary boundary across the area during this time and because of the differences aloft, they differ on where they put this boundary. As a result the extended gave me slight chance to chance pops. Give the pattern, the uncertainty, and near impossibility of getting the details right at this time scale, have no problem in keeping those pops with only cosmetic changes. This period does have the potential to be active and wet. Also a result of the uncertainty, left the temperatures alone as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1144 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may still be possible, however confidence that this would impact KGLD has greatly diminished and trends on radar have been towards current activity weakening before reaching KMCK. Fog/stratus may be possible in eastern Colorado by 12z, but confidence is low that this would reach KGLD and VFR conditions were prevailed. Winds should increase during the afternoon Friday before decreasing again around sunset. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Afternoon complex of storms is continuing to move to the east, with just some stratiform showers on the western edge still lingering across SE KS. Atmosphere in its wake across most of the forecast area, has stabilized. So expecting a lull in the convective chances for the rest of the evening hours. Still some concern for elevated convection to redevelop late tonight or storms currently over the high plains to drop east-southeast into western areas of the forecast area early Fri morning. Current hi-res solutions differ on how things will evolve early Fri morning. But latest RAP suggests low level moisture will increase from the OK panhandle into South Central KS after midnight. This moisture will overrun the stationary frontal boundary that remains draped across SRN KS. Highly conditional on if this moisture transport will be enough for storms to redevelop over South Central KS, or will it keep the high plains convection going east. Lots of uncertainty with either chance, but with the stationary front draped across the area will keep some low pops into Fri morning, in case either scenario leads to convection. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Tonight into Friday: Residual frontal boundary, contaminated largely by outflow effects from the ongoing mcv-induced storm complex over south-central Kansas, extends eastward from southern Kansas into southern Missouri. Highest thunderstorm probabilities into early this evening, should exist underneath and just east of this eastward tracking mcv, with renewed convective development along the attendant outflow boundaries. Very strong instability, anomalously high precipitable water, steep low-level lapse rates exist in a west-east axis underneath the above features, with modest deep layer shear. Therefore, some of the stronger storm cores within multi-cell clusters will produce strong-severe wet downburst winds and torrential rainfall. Isolated diurnally-tied, nickel-quarter size hail is also a threat. There should be a brief lull this evening northwest of the KS Turnpike, with temporarily stabilized air behind the mcv storm complex. However, additional convection emanating from the higher terrain to the west within the monsoonal plume, should propagate eastward overnight into a weak southerly low-level jet. Storm chances should therefore increase again late tonight into the early morning hours in central and south-central Kansas. This activity would still be capable of strong downburst winds and torrential rainfall under the strongest cores or multi- cell clusters. Will maintain at least low chances of lingering convection in eastern Kansas Friday (mainly through midday), otherwise, return southerly flow and some sunshine will lead to a return to the heat and humidity for much of the area. It is possible that the heat advisory for extreme southeast KS near the Oklahoma border may be cancelled early, depending on how far east convective outlfow effects reach in the next few hours. Saturday through Sunday: A strong, somewhat compact upper trough will sweep eastward from the Northern Intermountain region, across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley during this period. The associated cold front will slide southward into the Kansas region late Saturday, while weakening and stalling somehere across the state by Sunday, most likely in the south, while retaining its identity a bit more than the models suggest. Well-mixed breezy south-southwesterly boundary layer winds will allow very warm to hot conditions Saturday ahead of the front, with highs in the mid-upper 90s. Depending on how much the boundary layer dewpoints can lower, highs around 100 will be possible northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. With the upper ridge flattened, the monsoonal moist plume will stretch from the southern rockies eastward over Kansas near the front. Therefore, chances for at least scattered thunderstorms appear reasonable initially in Central Kansas late Saturday, potentially spreading into southern Kansas by Sunday. Although highs may trim back a few degrees Sunday with the front and storms in the region, readings will likely remain slightly above normal with rather humid air. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 The medium range models have been consistent in showing the upper ridge retrograding to the western states early next week, with longwave upper troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern will result in increased northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains. A lingering frontal zone across the Central Plains will serve as a focus for periodic thunderstorm chances, with upslope flow over the high plains and embedded upper disturbances in the northwest flow aloft serving as triggers for storms as well. The front is progged to meander slowly southward by Thursday, in part due to the embedded disturbances traversing the northwest flow aloft, and also from the outflow effects of storm complexes. As a result, slightly warmer than normal temperatures early in the week, are projected to fall back to slightly below normal by Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be, but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs may be possible. After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm front. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 74 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10 Hutchinson 70 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10 Newton 71 94 74 96 / 50 30 10 10 ElDorado 73 94 74 95 / 50 30 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 74 95 74 96 / 40 20 10 10 Russell 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 40 Great Bend 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 30 Salina 71 96 75 97 / 40 30 10 20 McPherson 72 95 74 97 / 50 30 10 10 Coffeyville 72 93 73 94 / 80 20 10 10 Chanute 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10 Iola 70 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1145 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 The MCV from this morning continues to develop a cluster of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across south central Kansas. Meanwhile the stationary front is oriented west to east from central Morris through Osage and Franklin counties. South of the front, sfc inhibition continues to weaken while sfc based CAPE is up to near 3000 J/KG in this area. Effective shear remains weak and focuses above 6 KM at 25 to 30 kts. This should provide ample support for convection to develop ahead of the MCV and along the boundary after 4 PM through early evening. A few of the stronger updrafts may produce hail up to an inch in diameter and downburst winds in excess of 60 mph. Given the slower motion of the midlevel winds and the possibility for training near the boundary, locally heavy rainfall is possible, even though flash flood guidance is still pretty high at around 3 inches for one hour. Later this evening is more uncertain for precipitation chances as latest short term and mid term guidance is cuing on the better forcing north and well south of the CWA. The low level jet at 850 mb increases to 25 kts from the southwest, with southeasterly winds at the sfc creating some enhancement in lift for perhaps isolated thunderstorms to occur over north central areas. Have trended back precip chances over northeast and far eastern areas through Friday morning with a good possibility for much of the area to stay dry. On Friday afternoon, remnants of the MCV are expected to lift northeast with aid from the secondary upper trough across southern Nebraska. Shear is once again pretty weak at or below 20 kts while ample elevated instability resides, especially eastern areas by the peak heating of the day in excess of 3000 J/KG. Have focused the highest pops in this area where the cap will be weak enough for thunderstorm development. A few storms may become marginally severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Despite the mid level clouds, have trended temps a few degrees warmer in the lower to middle 90s given the increased warm advection from the south. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 For Friday night, there does not appear to be much in the way of large scale forcing for convection. Although there are signs in the model solutions of some vorticity persisting within the weak westerlies just north of the mean upper ridge. Because of this it is hard to go with a dry forecast and think there could be some evening storms over eastern KS before the vort maximum drifts east into MO. The GFS and NAM also develop a warm air advection (WAA) pattern across central KS after midnight. Confidence in this potential is on the low side because the more aggressive GFS with widespread QPF shows a less favorable forecast sounding, while the NAM has a clear WAA pattern in the forecast sounding but much more limited coverage of storms. Therefore have only kept a slight chance POP across north central KS for the overnight hours due to the mixed signals. For Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, there is good agreement among the models in a closed low moving across the northern plains. This is expected to bring a cold front into the forecast area by the afternoon hours and potentially move it south through the night. There should be reasonable instability ahead of the front as dewpoints around 70 degrees. Since the better dynamics with the upper low remain well to the north, the main question for POPs is whether the lift from the front will be enough to overcome a weak cap. Have chance POPs in the forecast for the frontal boundary and decided not to go likely just yet as forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer with still some CIN to a surface parcel. So if the frontal circulation isn`t deep enough, the cap could hold. With the forecast area within the warm sector for much of the day, lows should be mild with readings expected to be in the lower and mid 70s. Have continued with highs in the mid and upper 90s expecting the boundary layer to mix close to 800MB. For Sunday, there is some question as to how far the frontal boundary will go south with the GFS holding it up across the area for Sunday. Convergence along this boundary along with daytime heating could be enough for scattered showers and storms so have a low chance POP through the day. The boundary layer is not expected to mix quite as deeply for Sunday with models showing some cooler 850 MB temps and lower thicknesses. Because of this, highs are forecast a little cooler in the lower and mid 90s. Sunday Night through Thursday... The extended period is expected to see a break down the persistent upper level ridging over the Central Plains. A strong upper level trough is expected to be centered over the Great Lakes region early next week. This trough will help focus the ridge axis further west across the Rockies, allowing temperatures to cool and rain chances to increase. Along with the cooler temperatures, the Great Lakes trough will bring a weak cold front through the area on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it traverses the CWA. With northwest flow and multiple embedded shortwaves within the flow, I have at least slight chance PoPs through the remainder of the period. However, the best chance for precip looks to come Wednesday into Thursday as a strong vort max rides down the eastern fringe of the ridge. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Will keep VFR forecast at this time but note thunderstorms may be near terminals periodically Friday. Enough time for next issuance to take a look but at this time confidence too low to add to forecast. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prieto LONG TERM...Wolters/Baerg AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 919 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Afternoon complex of storms is continuing to move to the east, with just some stratiform showers on the western edge still lingering across SE KS. Atmosphere in its wake across most of the forecast area, has stabilized. So expecting a lull in the convective chances for the rest of the evening hours. Still some concern for elevated convection to redevelop late tonight or storms currently over the high plains to drop east-southeast into western areas of the forecast area early Fri morning. Current hi-res solutions differ on how things will evolve early Fri morning. But latest RAP suggests low level moisture will increase from the OK panhandle into South Central KS after midnight. This moisture will overrun the stationary frontal boundary that remains draped across SRN KS. Highly conditional on if this moisture transport will be enough for storms to redevelop over South Central KS, or will it keep the high plains convection going east. Lots of uncertainty with either chance, but with the stationary front draped across the area will keep some low pops into Fri morning, in case either scenario leads to convection. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Tonight into Friday: Residual frontal boundary, contaminated largely by outflow effects from the ongoing mcv-induced storm complex over south-central Kansas, extends eastward from southern Kansas into southern Missouri. Highest thunderstorm probabilities into early this evening, should exist underneath and just east of this eastward tracking mcv, with renewed convective development along the attendant outflow boundaries. Very strong instability, anomalously high precipitable water, steep low-level lapse rates exist in a west-east axis underneath the above features, with modest deep layer shear. Therefore, some of the stronger storm cores within multi-cell clusters will produce strong-severe wet downburst winds and torrential rainfall. Isolated diurnally-tied, nickel-quarter size hail is also a threat. There should be a brief lull this evening northwest of the KS Turnpike, with temporarily stabilized air behind the mcv storm complex. However, additional convection emanating from the higher terrain to the west within the monsoonal plume, should propagate eastward overnight into a weak southerly low-level jet. Storm chances should therefore increase again late tonight into the early morning hours in central and south-central Kansas. This activity would still be capable of strong downburst winds and torrential rainfall under the strongest cores or multi- cell clusters. Will maintain at least low chances of lingering convection in eastern Kansas Friday (mainly through midday), otherwise, return southerly flow and some sunshine will lead to a return to the heat and humidity for much of the area. It is possible that the heat advisory for extreme southeast KS near the Oklahoma border may be cancelled early, depending on how far east convective outlfow effects reach in the next few hours. Saturday through Sunday: A strong, somewhat compact upper trough will sweep eastward from the Northern Intermountain region, across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley during this period. The associated cold front will slide southward into the Kansas region late Saturday, while weakening and stalling somehere across the state by Sunday, most likely in the south, while retaining its identity a bit more than the models suggest. Well-mixed breezy south-southwesterly boundary layer winds will allow very warm to hot conditions Saturday ahead of the front, with highs in the mid-upper 90s. Depending on how much the boundary layer dewpoints can lower, highs around 100 will be possible northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. With the upper ridge flattened, the monsoonal moist plume will stretch from the southern rockies eastward over Kansas near the front. Therefore, chances for at least scattered thunderstorms appear reasonable initially in Central Kansas late Saturday, potentially spreading into southern Kansas by Sunday. Although highs may trim back a few degrees Sunday with the front and storms in the region, readings will likely remain slightly above normal with rather humid air. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 The medium range models have been consistent in showing the upper ridge retrograding to the western states early next week, with longwave upper troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern will result in increased northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains. A lingering frontal zone across the Central Plains will serve as a focus for periodic thunderstorm chances, with upslope flow over the high plains and embedded upper disturbances in the northwest flow aloft serving as triggers for storms as well. The front is progged to meander slowly southward by Thursday, in part due to the embedded disturbances traversing the northwest flow aloft, and also from the outflow effects of storm complexes. As a result, slightly warmer than normal temperatures early in the week, are projected to fall back to slightly below normal by Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016 Complex of storms situated just to the north of the stalled frontal boundary across SE KS will continue to make progress to the east into SW MO this evening. Will go with prevailing TSRA and MVFR vsbys with this convection for KCNU for a few hours. Otherwise expect a lull in the convection for the rest of the evening hours for the rest of the forecast area, with VFR conditions expected. Stationary frontal boundary will remain over the area overnight, with possible convective redevelopment just to the north of stalled boundary over SRN KS late tonight or early Fri morning. Some uncertainty on whether this convection will develop, but think chances are high enough to add a VCTS for KICT/KHUT/KGBD and KCNU into early Fri morning, but chances are highly conditional. A little more uncertain whether CEN KS will see this redevelopment, but will add some VCSH for KSLN as well. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 74 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10 Hutchinson 72 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10 Newton 72 94 74 96 / 50 30 10 10 ElDorado 73 94 74 95 / 50 30 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 74 95 74 96 / 40 20 10 10 Russell 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 40 Great Bend 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 30 Salina 71 96 75 97 / 40 30 10 20 McPherson 72 95 74 97 / 50 30 10 10 Coffeyville 73 93 73 94 / 80 20 10 10 Chanute 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10 Iola 70 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...Ketcham Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 900 AM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will be around through the weekend into next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run near normal. && .DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery showed clear skies across western Pima County this morning, with scattered clouds eastward to the NM border. Lingering shower activity from overnight was continuing to diminish along with the cloud cover. Area sfc temperatures as of 24/15z ranged from the low 80s to low 90s in the valleys with cooler temperatures in the mountains. Sfc dewpoints were showing an increase of anywhere from 1 to 7 degrees compared to 24 hours ago. The 24/12z KTWC RAOB indicated 1.4 inches of PWAT along with almost 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE and a LI of -4. With ingredients in place, the majority of moisture located above 600 mb, and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, we will have to watch for strong and gusty outflows with any storms that develop this afternoon. That said, latest runs of the hi-res models (including the HRRR/WRFEMS/UA-WRFNAM/UA-WRFGFS) were consistent in developing the bulk of precip mainly east of a Tucson to Nogales line. Subtle differences were in timing, with the HRRR initiating convection late this morning, while the UA-WRFNAM/UA-WRFGFS hold off until later this afternoon into this evening. With the clearing occurring across eastern zones (including Cochise County), am tending to lean toward an earlier start. All in all, the current forecast is handling the current trends well, and no updates are needed. Please see the additional sections for further details. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will develop late this morning mainly east-to-south of KTUS, and continue into this evening. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur late tonight into early Saturday morning, again mainly east-to-south of KTUS. Otherwise, cloud decks will generally range from 10k-15k ft AGL. Sfc wind this afternoon will be wly/nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts. Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across southeast Arizona through next Thursday. The best chance of wetting rains during much of the period will be east-to- south of Tucson. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent with fair to good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds through Sunday as well as next Wednesday and Thursday will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Monday and Tuesday will generally be from the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest speeds Monday and Tuesday should prevail from shortly after sunrise into the early afternoon hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor satellite imagery and upper level observations depict mid/upper level high pressure centers over north/central Texas and near 30N/120W with Arizona in weak troughing between these two highs. Remnant convection across Sonora is weakening this morning but with broad mid to upper level southerly flow, skies are partly to mostly cloudy at this time from Sells eastward. These clouds are expected to gradually diminish as the morning progresses although they could persist a bit longer especially over Cochise County. Meanwhile, the greatest moisture and instability is expected to be along the international border this afternoon and have focused the higher pops along these areas in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. We`ll just need to keep an eye on the lingering clouds perhaps persisting longer than anticipated and keeping instability down, especially in Cochise County. With the bulk of the moisture above 600 mb and high dewpoint depressions, any convection may produce gusty outflow winds. Thereafter, a complex of storms may form tonight across Sonora and push outflow northward into southeast Arizona with perhaps a bit of increased low level moisture. In addition, a weak mid level disturbance will perhaps aid in convective initiation with shower and thunderstorms coverage in areas a bit farther northward on Saturday though still favoring areas from Tucson eastward and southward. Gusty outflow winds and perhaps localized blowing dust might be an issue but due to low confidence have left out of the forecast. Looking out from Sunday and into next week, the mid to upper level high is expected to setup in a favorable position near the four corners through about Wednesday with some differences beyond. Expect perhaps an uptick in storm coverage in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as southeast Arizona is on the northern periphery of an inverted trough. Bottom line is a general ramp up in coverage through the weekend which will persist next week. It will then just become more of the typical diurnal difficulties of determining which days are the more active ones. Temperatures will generally remain near normal though the forecast period. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson French Prev Discussion...GL/Francis Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 301 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend, with a few showers east of Flagstaff. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal type of circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity and more seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow in response to a trough moving through the northern states will continue to gradually push eastward today and tonight. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will be confined to eastern Arizona, primarily Apache County. The moisture plume will remain mostly east of Arizona through the weekend with the exception of the White Mountains and far eastern Arizona which will carry a chance for thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than average in most locations. Models are in good agreement with high pressure establishing over the four corners area by Sunday afternoon with an easterly flow developing over Arizona. This will bring a healthy increase in moisture resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms. The weather next week will be more typical of monsoon season with daily rainfall chances and closer to average temperatures. With the general position of the high pressure not moving much through the week, it`s likely this monsoonal circulation will continue through the week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA G30-40kts CIGS BKN040 east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 03Z...and again 18Z- 00Z Sat. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will continue to move in from the west over the next several days. This will limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county through Sunday. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds. Monday through Wednesday...Additional moisture begins to move in from the south and southeast with chances for showers and thunderstorms expanding westward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MCS AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 301 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the weekend, with a few showers east of Flagstaff. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal type of circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity and more seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow in response to a trough moving through the northern states will continue to gradually push eastward today and tonight. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will be confined to eastern Arizona, primarily Apache County. The moisture plume will remain mostly east of Arizona through the weekend with the exception of the White Mountains and far eastern Arizona which will carry a chance for thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than average in most locations. Models are in good agreement with high pressure establishing over the four corners area by Sunday afternoon with an easterly flow developing over Arizona. This will bring a healthy increase in moisture resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms. The weather next week will be more typical of monsoon season with daily rainfall chances and closer to average temperatures. With the general position of the high pressure not moving much through the week, it`s likely this monsoonal circulation will continue through the week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA G30-40kts CIGS BKN040 east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 03Z...and again 18Z- 00Z Sat. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will continue to move in from the west over the next several days. This will limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county through Saturday. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds. Monday through Wednesday...Additional moisture begins to move in from the south and southeast with chances for showers and thunderstorms expanding westward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MCS AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 254 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture will seep into portions of Arizona later this week and into next week leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will initially be limited to high terrain areas, then finally move towards lower desert communities as we move into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Monday... Water vapor imagery indicates a vort max now over central AZ but getting sheared out. It hasn`t been enough to produce much in the way of convection. A larger short wave with an axis over southern CA is moving in from the west. It is part of a much larger trough centered over the Pacific northwest. Meanwhile and broad region of high pressure is centered over the south-central CONUS but there is a large inverted trough centered south of the Big Bend. Thus, flow aloft with a westerly component is encountering flow aloft with an easterly component over Arizona. Thus there is also a moisture gradient over Arizona with decreasing values from east to west. Isolated storms are now beginning to develop in southeast AZ where destabilization from surface heating is getting underway. Anticipate additional development there where CAPE is best. But with southwesterly steering flow, storms will tend to move away from the lower deserts of south-central AZ (including Phoenix). Outflow winds are a possibility though. However, CAPE not looking good for those lower deserts and thus outflows will struggle to produce new storms. Hi- res models reflect this as well and keep deep convection pretty much outside of our forecast area. But with a disturbance in the mix, and proximity to southeast AZ, kept slight chance PoPs over portions of Gila and Pinal counties for late this afternoon and evening. Over the weekend, steering flow takes on an easterly component as anticyclonic flow slowly builds over the the 4 corners. Deep moisture doesn`t flood in but that is a better direction (climatologically) for storms on the south-central AZ deserts. Thus PoPs subtly increase from east to west. There are also indications of at least one perturbation in the mix ahead of the large inverted trough which stalls out near the Big Bend. Not much change in temps, though if skies are clear and dew points decline, then highs will be a bit warmer than forecast. By Monday afternoon, the upper high is forecast to build to a 597dm center located over far north central AZ near the Utah border. with 500mb heights in excess of 595dm over the central deserts, it will turn even hotter, but the potential heat will be balanced by a continued moisture feed from the east with pwat values climbing to 1.4 inches near the greater Phoenix area, and values over 1 inch into southeast CA. Central desert surface dewpoints will rise into the 50s and cloud cover will also increase from the east. As such high temperatures will climb a degree or two with hottest western deserts staying under 115, and most central deserts at or below 111. With the increase in moisture and instability comes an increase in CAPE and by Monday afternoon/evening we may see values in excess of 500 j/kg east of Phoenix. As such POPs have climbed a bit with slight chances added to much of the south central deserts including the greater Phoenix area, and POPs above 20 percent over southern Gila County. Tuesday through Thursday...Model guidance including NAEFS and GEFS ensemble guidance is suggesting that our flow pattern is setting up in a standard monsoonal fashion, with the upper high migrating towards the vicinity of the four corners, and a much deeper and widespread southeast steering flow working its way over the AZ deserts and even into southeast CA. Moisture continues to work across the lower deserts and rainfall chances will increase with slight chances developing to the lower Colorado River valley and potentially into the deserts of southeast CA. We have raised POPs over much of the CWA correspondingly, with chance numbers over the higher terrain of southern Gila County and slight chances over much of the southcentral deserts westward. High temperatures take a slow decline day to day as humidity values rise. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Gusty erratic winds and blowing dust from distant SE AZ storms will be possible this afternoon/ early evening , with a wind shift to the south/southeast behind any outflows that make their way to Phoenix terminals (after 23Z). However, low confidence in exact timing and location precludes mention in 18Z TAF at this time. Outside of potential storm outflows, winds will be out of the west with a few gusts up to 20 kts before shifting to the east tomorrow morning. In addition, skies will remain mostly clear with a few clouds aoa 10kft. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as high as 15 kts and a few gusts up to 20 kts possible during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow typical diurnal trends with speeds around 10 to 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... Temperatures will start a gradual "cooling" trend, with highs on Monday around 110-115F dropping into the 100-110F range by Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening, primarily over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix on Monday, and then over much of the desert southwest Tuesday through Friday. On Monday, given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with minimum humidities generally between 10 and 20 percent, there will be very little if any measurable rain. Mostly gusty erratic winds and dry lightning will accompany storms potentially igniting new fires or promoting the spread of existing fires. Better chances for wetting rains is expected from Tuesday into Friday as monsoon moisture levels increase over the region, with the highest chances for rainfall still remaining over the higher terrain of south-central AZ. Also accompanying the storms will be gusty erratic winds and lightning. Minimum humidities during the Tuesday through Friday period will rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ/CB AVIATION...Hernandez FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 254 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture will seep into portions of Arizona later this week and into next week leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will initially be limited to high terrain areas, then finally move towards lower desert communities as we move into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Monday... Water vapor imagery indicates a vort max now over central AZ but getting sheared out. It hasn`t been enough to produce much in the way of convection. A larger short wave with an axis over southern CA is moving in from the west. It is part of a much larger trough centered over the Pacific northwest. Meanwhile and broad region of high pressure is centered over the south-central CONUS but there is a large inverted trough centered south of the Big Bend. Thus, flow aloft with a westerly component is encountering flow aloft with an easterly component over Arizona. Thus there is also a moisture gradient over Arizona with decreasing values from east to west. Isolated storms are now beginning to develop in southeast AZ where destabilization from surface heating is getting underway. Anticipate additional development there where CAPE is best. But with southwesterly steering flow, storms will tend to move away from the lower deserts of south-central AZ (including Phoenix). Outflow winds are a possibility though. However, CAPE not looking good for those lower deserts and thus outflows will struggle to produce new storms. Hi- res models reflect this as well and keep deep convection pretty much outside of our forecast area. But with a disturbance in the mix, and proximity to southeast AZ, kept slight chance PoPs over portions of Gila and Pinal counties for late this afternoon and evening. Over the weekend, steering flow takes on an easterly component as anticyclonic flow slowly builds over the the 4 corners. Deep moisture doesn`t flood in but that is a better direction (climatologically) for storms on the south-central AZ deserts. Thus PoPs subtly increase from east to west. There are also indications of at least one perturbation in the mix ahead of the large inverted trough which stalls out near the Big Bend. Not much change in temps, though if skies are clear and dew points decline, then highs will be a bit warmer than forecast. By Monday afternoon, the upper high is forecast to build to a 597dm center located over far north central AZ near the Utah border. with 500mb heights in excess of 595dm over the central deserts, it will turn even hotter, but the potential heat will be balanced by a continued moisture feed from the east with pwat values climbing to 1.4 inches near the greater Phoenix area, and values over 1 inch into southeast CA. Central desert surface dewpoints will rise into the 50s and cloud cover will also increase from the east. As such high temperatures will climb a degree or two with hottest western deserts staying under 115, and most central deserts at or below 111. With the increase in moisture and instability comes an increase in CAPE and by Monday afternoon/evening we may see values in excess of 500 j/kg east of Phoenix. As such POPs have climbed a bit with slight chances added to much of the south central deserts including the greater Phoenix area, and POPs above 20 percent over southern Gila County. Tuesday through Thursday...Model guidance including NAEFS and GEFS ensemble guidance is suggesting that our flow pattern is setting up in a standard monsoonal fashion, with the upper high migrating towards the vicinity of the four corners, and a much deeper and widespread southeast steering flow working its way over the AZ deserts and even into southeast CA. Moisture continues to work across the lower deserts and rainfall chances will increase with slight chances developing to the lower Colorado River valley and potentially into the deserts of southeast CA. We have raised POPs over much of the CWA correspondingly, with chance numbers over the higher terrain of southern Gila County and slight chances over much of the southcentral deserts westward. High temperatures take a slow decline day to day as humidity values rise. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Gusty erratic winds and blowing dust from distant SE AZ storms will be possible this afternoon/ early evening , with a wind shift to the south/southeast behind any outflows that make their way to Phoenix terminals (after 23Z). However, low confidence in exact timing and location precludes mention in 18Z TAF at this time. Outside of potential storm outflows, winds will be out of the west with a few gusts up to 20 kts before shifting to the east tomorrow morning. In addition, skies will remain mostly clear with a few clouds aoa 10kft. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as high as 15 kts and a few gusts up to 20 kts possible during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow typical diurnal trends with speeds around 10 to 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday... Temperatures will start a gradual "cooling" trend, with highs on Monday around 110-115F dropping into the 100-110F range by Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening, primarily over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix on Monday, and then over much of the desert southwest Tuesday through Friday. On Monday, given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels with minimum humidities generally between 10 and 20 percent, there will be very little if any measurable rain. Mostly gusty erratic winds and dry lightning will accompany storms potentially igniting new fires or promoting the spread of existing fires. Better chances for wetting rains is expected from Tuesday into Friday as monsoon moisture levels increase over the region, with the highest chances for rainfall still remaining over the higher terrain of south-central AZ. Also accompanying the storms will be gusty erratic winds and lightning. Minimum humidities during the Tuesday through Friday period will rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...AJ/CB AVIATION...Hernandez FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 240 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will be around through the weekend into next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will run near normal. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were confined to areas mainly east of a Tucson to Nogales line this afternoon. Alert gages indicate rainfall amounts have generally remained less than a third of an inch. Both the HRRR and the 24/12z UA-WRFNAM seem to be handling this convection well. In addition, the last several runs of the HRRR have depicted an outflow boundary originating from near Tucson propagating northwest toward the Phoenix area between 24/23z and 25/02z. As such, have included a mention of patchy blowing dust in the forecast for a few hours this evening for portions of Pinal County near I-10. At this point...expect convection to continue across eastern zones into the evening and begin to diminish sometime around or just after sunset. Otherwise...the synoptic scale pattern was defined by longwave ridging over much of the CONUS with low pressure moving into northwestern Montana, as well as another disturbance pushing northwestward along the Mexico/Texas border. Over the next several days, it looks as though this Mexican low will stall before slowly starting to move eastward through Texas, rather than move in our direction. This will allow high pressure take hold of the desert southwest early next week, with the center of high pressure setting up near the favorable four corners region (for daily convection) by Tuesday/Wednesday. Thereafter, high pressure seems to wobble around the southwestern states a little bit, but overall remain in a good position to ensure daily chances for monsoon activity. Showers and storms this weekend will do well to moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere, so we will probably be looking at better coverage of measurable precip and some higher QPF`s by the middle to end of next week. Bottom line is a general ramp up in shower and storm coverage through the weekend which will persist into next week. The forecast challenge will then shift to determining which days will be "up" or "down" in terms of coverage and storm severity. Temperatures will generally remain near normal though the forecast period. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. Isold to sctd -TSRA/-SHRA thru 25/03z mainly E and S of KTUS. Sctd debris cloud cover overnight with slgt chc of -SHRA. Isold -TSRA dvlpg Sat after 25/19z mainly E and S of KTUS. Sfc wind until this evening W-NW at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts. Sfc wind will be vrbl in direction at less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across southeast Arizona through next Thursday. The best chance of wetting rains during much of the period will be east-to- south of Tucson. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent with fair to good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds through Sunday as well as next Wednesday and Thursday will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Monday and Tuesday will generally be from the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest speeds Monday and Tuesday should prevail from shortly after sunrise into the early afternoon hours. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson Discussion...French Aviation/Fire Weather...Glueck