Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/24/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
805 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at
least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture
will seep into portions of Arizona next week leading to a threat for
showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will initially be limited to
high terrain areas, then finally move towards lower desert
communities later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The first semi-organized outflow event of the monsoon season has
essentially dissipated this evening with light dust settling and
winds subsiding. 00z KTWC and KPSR sounding data sampled more robust
moisture towards the top of the boundary layer (near 500-600 mb),
though a substantial dry subcloud layer with only 6-7 g/kg through
the mixing depth. Overall instability was limited to nearly absent,
and normally this type of profile would not support organized
outflows. However, a better defined MCV originating along the
international border was absorbed in the southerly H5 flow allowing
a measure of dynamic support and consolidating evaporative cooling
and downdrafts from virga towards the sfc.
Although the event has ended, resultant conditions have necessitated
rather large adjustments to many salient forecast parameters this
evening throughout central Arizona. Conditions should clear and
stabilize towards the previous forecast later tonight and no major
changes were made beyond that. Otherwise, have allowed the excessive
heat warning to expire understanding temperatures will remain
slightly above average, but nowhere near records or excessive levels
for late June.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016/
For Friday, a short wave on the southern periphery of the large
trough affecting the northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised
to move across the forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE
into southern AZ. However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ,
but enough to mention a slight chance of storms for our higher
terrain areas. For Saturday, we may have another similar situation
as the GFS actually depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an
upper low off the Baja. Like Friday though, the moist advection
looks to be limited due to dry air from the west. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler Friday and Saturday, thus we don`t have any
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On Sunday, an anticyclone becomes
centered near the 4 corners and temps nudge up a bit - flirting with
Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off for now on a Watch especially
in light of potential negating factors associated with convection
(clouds, dew points, etc.).
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. It seems very plausible we will see moisture
levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a
threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for
now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely
need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will
be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which
days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly
weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels
won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing
storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud
layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any
storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by
the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona
deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Forecasting sfc winds and wind shifts will be the largest problem
for Phoenix area sites through Friday afternoon. Outflow late
Thursday afternoon caused sfc winds to become S/SE, however radar
data suggests some chance of a switch back to a SW direction or
becoming variable later this evening. Overall confidence in timing
wind directions through tonight is low. After becoming predominately
easterly late tonight, timing back to a SW component Friday looks to
similar to Thursday during late morning/early afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Timing wind shifts and determining potential for stronger gusts will
be the primary forecast challenge for SE CA aerodromes through
Friday afternoon. Some measure of a southerly component will be
preferred over the area, however variability will still be a concern
and typical wind shifts may not follow the usual pattern. Confidence
in forecasting specific wind shift times is only low to moderate.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest will bring another
period of well above normal temperatures to the region Sunday and
Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree
range. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing
fires.
Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rains
are expected Tuesday into Thursday as increasing southeasterly flow
aloft begins to increase moisture levels over the region. The best
chances for rainfall will occur over the higher terrain of south-
central AZ. Minimum humidities during the Tue-Thu period will rise
into the 15-25 percent range with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO/AJ/Kuhlman
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into
early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high
temperatures will run a few degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...If you think about it, after such an extremely hot
and record setting start to the week, today has been rather pleasant
thanks to the extensive cloud cover and areas of virga or sprinkles
or light showers. Check out the climate section for a Tucson
climatic tidbit. Western Pima county has had plenty of sun and the
highs likely will top out in the 105 to 110 range. The activity
today possibly associated with the combination of a weakening upper
level low that was off the Baja coast yesterday and has weakened as
it moved NE toward northern Baja and a weak disturbance aloft that
moved in from Sonora. For tonight, except for western Pima county,
will maintain isolated sprinkles/light showers into the evening
hours. Expect partly cloudy conditions overnight as debris clouds
from storms along the Sonora/Chihuahua state line spread north under
the southerly flow aloft.
Friday...models suggesting that there will be a residual upper level
feature around that may help focus storm development with best
chance for storms south and east of Tucson. Increased PoPs for these
areas. Highs will obviously be warmer for areas that were under
extensive cloud cover today.
Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow
aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal.
Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high
settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow
aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but
timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for
reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico
from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above
normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to
area being gunked over with debris clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
An area of layered SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded
virga/-SHRA will gradually push northward into this evening. SFC
wind generally WLY/NWLY around 10-15 kts this afternoon with a few
higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Expect terrain-driven winds
overnight into Friday at less than 10 kts. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are
expected again Friday afternoon mainly near terrain E of KTUS to the
NM border, with NWLY SFC winds around 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially
over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow
winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the
peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20
percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...Here is another climate tidbit. As 3 pm, the high
temperature at the airport has been 93 degrees. This would be the
6th coolest high temperature for June 23rd on record and the coolest
since 89 degrees in 2000. Additionally the low temperature thus far
today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight,
be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record
is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and
thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A west to southwest flow aloft will be over Arizona
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will
keep the moisture pushed further east into New Mexico with
generally drier conditions for northern Arizona. The exception
will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White Mountains which
will see enough moisture to continue the chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to moderate
rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June
through the weekend.
By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners
region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for
moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical
monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the
area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation
chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains through 02z, with erratic gusty outflow winds possible
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west
over the next several days. The coverage for showers and
thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each
day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds.
Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday.
Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning from Monday onward.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An MCV was centered between Tucson and Nogales early this afternoon
and was producing spotty showers. Cloud cover has kept lower levels
from destabilizing over southeast AZ. Hi-res models have been
keeping convection out of our area for today/tonight. However, as the
MCV drifts northward, there will be a slight chance of a weak
convective shower over our easternmost areas. For Friday, a short
wave on the southern periphery of the large trough affecting the
northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised to move across the
forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE into southern AZ.
However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ...but enough to
mention slight chance of storms for our higher terrain areas. For
Saturday, we may have another similar situation. The GFS actually
depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an upper low off Baja.
Like Friday though, the moist advection looks to be limited due to
dry air from the west. Temps will be slightly cooler Friday and again
Saturday thus we don`t have any Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On
Sunday, an anticyclone becomes centered near the 4 corners and temps
nudge up a bit - flirting with Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off
for now on a Watch - especially in light of the X-factors associated
with convection (clouds, dew points, etc.).
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Left-over debris cloudiness from thunderstorms over northern Mexico
and extreme southeastern AZ will continue to keep mid-high level sct-
bkn cloud layers over the PHX area terminals through this evening.
then slowly clear later tonight and Friday. Westerly breezes, with
gusts as high as 20 kts to continue into this evening, then become
easterly later tonight, a little later than usual. Westerly breezes
will then return on Friday afternoon, with wind speeds similar to
what we are seeing today.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to
remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as
high as 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts possible during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest to bring another
period of well-above normal temperatures to the region on Sunday and
Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree range
each day. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing
fires. Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting
rains is expected from Tuesday into next Thursday as increasing
southeasterly flow aloft begins to increase monsoon moisture levels
over the region, with the best chances for rainfall being over the
higher terrain of south-central AZ. Minimum humidities during the
Tue-Thu period to rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and
thunderstorm activity.
&&
.UPDATE...Drier air has spread into western Arizona today which
will limit shower/thunderstorm activity to far eastern Arizona.
Any showers/storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds.
Elsewhere dry and warm weather continues. No major forecast
updates this morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /520 AM MST/...Light west to southwesterly flow
aloft will keep most moisture to the east and south of our area.
Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight
chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the
eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/Peterson
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast a little over an hour ago to
increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy for the
remainder of the morning hours. Radar showed isolated areas of
mainly virga/sprinkles from Tucson east and south. Haven`t seen any
gauges yet to pick up anything measurable. However the area of
slightly stronger showers south of Santa Cruz county likely
producing measurable rainfall. This area of showers was pushing to
the north. Precipitable water values are up slightly versus 24 hours
ago with various sources showing values generally in the 1.0" to
1.2" range with higher values SW of Tucson per blended imagery.
Again most of this is above 600 mb. At the surface, dewpoint values
were in the 40s to lower 50s. Water vapor imagery this morning
showed that the upper low that was west of the Baja Spur yesterday,
and which some models yesterday wanted to move to the south today,
has lifted NE toward northern Baja. This feature bringing the upper
dynamics to produce the virga/sprinkles/light showers across
portions of SE AZ and northern Sonora MX.
The cloud cover will gradually erode as the day progresses with
partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. Still will see isolated
areas of virga/sprinkles/light showers into the afternoon hours.
Can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two in areas that will have more
sunshine. The highs today may also be a touch too warm. Will
continue to watch trends over the next several hours before running
out another forecast update.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL will gradually decrease in
coverage through the afternoon. Isolated -SHRA thru this evening.
SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher
gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds
during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
730 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.UPDATE...Just ran out a quick update to increase cloud cover to
mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy this morning. Kept sprinkles in
the forecast this morning, although could see some measurable rain
near the International border as an area of showers just south of
the border pushes north. Didn`t touch the high temperatures but will
evaluate. Another update likely later this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
520 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal
circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Light westerly flow aloft will keep most moisture to
the west and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to
our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns
and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially
over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible. SFC winds
light til 17z then btwn 17z-02z Fri, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain
regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next
week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher.
Temperatures will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with
a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County.
For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and
thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no
updates are anticipated this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to
retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west
coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow
causing convective activity to diminish across the state through
Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few
showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of
the Mogollon Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge
will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting
up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation
will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico.
Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air
will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower
elevations next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow
aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related
movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did
develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted
waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in
Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for
southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south-
central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow-
off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With
shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning
has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which
it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps
and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave
heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner
westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph
possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current
satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to
current trends.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers
over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is
an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over
the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered
near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the
latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also
lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus,
Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area).
For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the
weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in
moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight
chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps
nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for
Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall,
temps remain above normal.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited
convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across
northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back
into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few
degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still
holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and
portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right
trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow
afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as
deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z
analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas
and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the
forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below
for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of
precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the
higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than
today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions
that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was
present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing
eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered
over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward
into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should
help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front
eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the
cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early
afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon
with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to
Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient
is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In
fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending
from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this
afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high
temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend
on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs
expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest
temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher
850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha,
in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105
degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas
this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints
(possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA
during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint
temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast
Kansas.
Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight
across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by
Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as
soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some
low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit
how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds
behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east
central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a
location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central
Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak
upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the
front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms.
Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on
areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a
wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be
ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across
eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the
area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern
Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to
develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS
that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to
remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then
moves southeast across much of the area into east central or
southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the
atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems
in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There
could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on
timing and location so confidence remains on the low side.
Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday
the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in
the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central
Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
continue to be gusty at 20-25 knots through the early evening.
Winds will shift to the north and northeast while decreasing to
5-10 knots overnight.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Continued above normal temperatures and periodic thunderstorm
chances will highlight the next 7 days.
Breezy...sunny and hot weather expected today, as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Like yesterday, dewpoints should
remain in check given drier southwesterly low-level flow, so most
heat indices should remain below 105 degrees. However, like
yesterday localized downslope component to wind should allow
Salina`s temperature to reach around 105 degrees, with heat
indices 105-108 degrees, so will hoist a heat advisory today for
Saline county. Additionally, given decent 1000-850mb
frontogenesis, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm
late this afternoon and evening generally along/north of a Great
Bend to Salina line. However, suspect minimal upper forcing and
modest convective inhibition will likely preclude most if not all
thunderstorm activity from forming at all. Same goes for tonight,
as an increasingly veered out low-level jet should prevent
anything more than very isolated activity at best.
Expect a slight increase in thunderstorm chances Thursday
afternoon and night, as low-level moisture pools along the stalled
frontal zone somewhere across central to southern KS. Activity may
also be aided by a convectively induced mid/upper disturbance
approaching from the west...of which both the NAM and GFS have
been forecasting the past few days. Relatively weak shear and
forcing should preclude widespread severe weather. Depending on
how fast the frontal zone washes out, slight chances for storms
could linger into Friday.
Given the potential for decreased mixing and increased clouds,
temperatures should be a tad cooler Thu-Fri, although still above
normal for this time of year.
Kleinsasser
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Expecting thunderstorm chances to re-enter the forecast Saturday
evening/night over central KS, as another cold front emanating
from a strong northern CONUS upper trough approaches the region
from the northwest. Slightly better upper forcing expected with
this feature as it gives Kansas a glancing blow to the north, so
expecting modest thunderstorm chances Saturday evening/night,
persisting into Sunday night. Even though widespread severe
weather is not expected, somewhat stronger 500-250mb flow may
support a slightly more organized severe weather event compared to
Thursday afternoon/night.
GFS ensemble members along with the ECMWF, operational GFS and
GEM support a retrograding mid/upper ridge next week, possibly as
far west as the Great Basin. This will allow the stronger belt of
mid/upper westerlies and associated frontal zone to become
established further south/southwest over the Kansas and Mid-
America region, supporting the potential for periodic thunderstorm
chances from Monday night on, along with somewhat cooler
temperatures through the week, with 80s possible by mid-late week.
Kleinsasser
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
A cold front will continue to move south across central and
into southeast Kansas through this evening and overnight. The
atmosphere is expected to remain capped along the front so will
keep the terminals convection free. This will change as we go
into Thursday as the front stalls out across southern Kansas.
However will only mention VCSH at KRSL for now during the late
morning, with better chances for convection holding off until
after the forecast valid period late Thursday.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 101 76 96 75 / 0 10 20 30
Hutchinson 102 73 93 74 / 10 10 30 40
Newton 101 74 92 74 / 0 10 30 40
ElDorado 100 74 94 73 / 0 10 30 40
Winfield-KWLD 100 76 97 75 / 0 10 20 20
Russell 99 71 90 72 / 10 10 30 40
Great Bend 101 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40
Salina 105 74 92 74 / 10 10 30 40
McPherson 103 73 93 73 / 10 10 30 40
Coffeyville 98 77 96 74 / 0 0 20 20
Chanute 98 76 94 74 / 0 10 20 30
Iola 97 75 93 73 / 0 10 20 30
Parsons-KPPF 98 76 95 74 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Dry and not as hot today with a possibility of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms late each afternoon and overnight hours
through the end of the work week.
The broad high pressure area remains aloft over the southern U.S.
with westerly flow across the northern states expected to bring a
series of weak disturbances east of the Rockies and across the
plains states late each day. These disturbance appear to be
artifacts of the convection that forms on the higher terrain each
afternoon that subsequently moves east over the plains before
dissipating.
A cold front moves across the forecast area today, keeping high
temperatures nearly 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in some
locations across far eastern Colorado. Temperatures across the
western portions of the forecast area will be near normal for this
time of year while the eastern sections, while not as hot as
yesterday, will remain a few degrees above average.
With the cold front expected to be south of the forecast area and
storms expected to move off the Rockies and across the plains
later today, should see isolated thunderstorms move across the
southern extent of the forecast area this evening. Storms should
continue to transition across the southern sections overnight
with a few storms possibly remaining across the southeast
sections early Thursday morning.
The front that moved through the forecast area on Wednesday will
move back north into the the area on Thursday, providing a focus
for thunderstorms development during the afternoon and evening
hours with storms moving off to the east by early Friday morning.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms with isolated severe
hail and wind expected.
Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected
late Friday and Friday night as another trough/front moves into
the area Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Chances for thunderstorms persist through the majority of
the extended period. On Saturday, an upper low deepens as it travels
east over the northern Plains from Montana towards the Dakotas. The
cold front trailing this system looks to move through the region
late Saturday (slower than previous guidance). Thunderstorms are
forecast for the afternoon into Saturday night. At this time, better
potential for severe weather appears to be northeast of the area
where healthier instability and shear are located. Will continue to
monitor in upcoming days.
High pressure pushes into the High Plains behind the front as it
moves south, bringing drier conditions to the region on Sunday. The
upper low continues eastward from the Northern Plains and ridging
builds over the western CONUS. As the upper trough departs and
ridging builds to the west, northwest flow develops aloft early next
week. Passing disturbances generate thunderstorm chances across the
forecast area Monday and Tuesday, with slightly higher chances on
Tuesday when better moisture returns to the region.
The warmest temperatures during the extended appear to be on
Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Slightly "cooler"
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are anticipated Sunday
through Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
winds will continue to be gusty through this afternoon in the wake
of and earlier cold frontal passage. Winds will subside by sunset
at both locations.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold
front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM
were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day
than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to
agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around
Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air
is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary
and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS
late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101
degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid
to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will
not stray far from this.
Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal
boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast
to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will
be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms
will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not
high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating
so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small
chances west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the
western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level
trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the
Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there
will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing
across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface
boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the
timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving
chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better
opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the
timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return,
improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor
undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover
and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon.
Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday
night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north
will begin favor the better chances for convection across western
Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off
from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday.
Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level
trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will
favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday,
especially in far western Kansas.
Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the
Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south
into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with
this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains.
At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across
western Kansas will be Saturday night.
For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be
trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a
northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and
northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing
northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains
through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least
a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight
chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it
also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal
levels for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Cold frontal boundary sliding through SW KS this afternoon with a
shift to N/NE surface winds. Although there is instability and
moisture convergence associated with this boundary, 700 mb
temperatures appear to be too warm to support TSRA development.
Kept TAFs dry through this evening with increasing midlayer cloud
and NE winds. -TSRA most likely in SE Colorado and near EHA this
evening, with perhaps an isolated storm near/west of GCK. Limited
impacts if any this evening. Convective impacts to aviation
expected to increase on Thursday, as instability and storm
coverage increase.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101 71 92 70 / 0 10 30 30
GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 100 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40
LBL 103 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30
HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50
P28 102 74 95 74 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions
that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was
present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing
eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered
over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward
into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should
help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front
eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the
cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early
afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon
with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to
Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient
is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In
fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending
from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this
afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high
temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend
on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs
expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest
temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher
850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha,
in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105
degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas
this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints
(possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA
during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint
temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast
Kansas.
Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight
across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by
Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as
soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some
low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit
how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds
behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east
central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a
location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central
Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak
upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the
front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms.
Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on
areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a
wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be
ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across
eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the
area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern
Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to
develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS
that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to
remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then
moves southeast across much of the area into east central or
southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the
atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems
in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There
could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on
timing and location so confidence remains on the low side.
Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday
the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in
the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central
Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
LLWS concerns will diminish this morning as southerly winds
quickly increase with gusts of 25-30kts through this afternoon. As
a cold front sags southward across the area this evening, winds
will shift to the north overnight into Thursday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold
front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM
were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day
than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to
agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around
Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air
is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary
and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS
late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101
degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid
to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will
not stray far from this.
Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal
boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast
to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will
be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms
will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not
high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating
so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small
chances west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the
western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level
trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the
Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there
will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing
across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface
boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the
timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving
chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better
opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the
timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return,
improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor
undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover
and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon.
Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday
night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north
will begin favor the better chances for convection across western
Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off
from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday.
Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level
trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will
favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday,
especially in far western Kansas.
Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the
Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south
into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with
this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains.
At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across
western Kansas will be Saturday night.
For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be
trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a
northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and
northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing
northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains
through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least
a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight
chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it
also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal
levels for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Light southwesterly winds will turn north-northeast 10 to
20kt this afternoon as a weak cold front moves slowly southeast
across western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 71 92 70 / 10 10 30 30
GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 99 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40
LBL 102 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30
HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50
P28 102 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions
that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was
present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing
eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered
over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward
into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should
help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front
eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the
cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early
afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon
with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to
Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient
is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In
fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending
from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this
afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high
temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend
on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs
expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest
temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher
850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha,
in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105
degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas
this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints
(possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA
during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint
temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast
Kansas.
Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight
across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by
Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as
soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some
low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit
how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds
behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east
central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a
location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central
Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak
upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the
front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms.
Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on
areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a
wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be
ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across
eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the
area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern
Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to
develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS
that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to
remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then
moves southeast across much of the area into east central or
southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the
atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems
in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There
could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on
timing and location so confidence remains on the low side.
Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday
the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in
the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central
Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
A few minor adjustments to timing, mixing out winds around 14z and
added winds decreasing as boundary sags into the area in the
afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions expected.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold
front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM
were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day
than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to
agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around
Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air
is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary
and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS
late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101
degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid
to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will
not stray far from this.
Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal
boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast
to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will
be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms
will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not
high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating
so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small
chances west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the
western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level
trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the
Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there
will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing
across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface
boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the
timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving
chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better
opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the
timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return,
improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor
undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover
and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon.
Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday
night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north
will begin favor the better chances for convection across western
Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off
from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday.
Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level
trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will
favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday,
especially in far western Kansas.
Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the
Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south
into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with
this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains.
At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across
western Kansas will be Saturday night.
For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be
trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a
northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and
northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing
northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains
through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least
a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight
chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it
also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal
levels for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
South to southwest winds will continue overnight into early
Wednesday at around 15 knots. These winds will decrease to around
10 knots by the early afternoon as a surface cold front moves into
southwest Kansas between 18z and 21z Wednesday. This frontal
boundary will then drift slowly south through the remainder of the
day. At this time this frontal boundary will be south of GCK and
HYS and by 21z Wednesday. This boundary will then move south and
east of DDC between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. As this
frontal boundary passes the southwest wind will shift to the
west....and then northwest. These winds will eventually shift to
the north northeast. VFR conditions are expected today. Mid to
high level moisture will start to increase from west to east after
00z Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 71 92 70 / 10 10 30 30
GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 99 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40
LBL 102 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30
HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50
P28 102 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
211 AM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will be around through the weekend into
next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will
run near normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor satellite imagery and upper
level observations depict mid/upper level high pressure centers over
north/central Texas and near 30N/120W with Arizona in weak troughing
between these two highs. Remnant convection across Sonora is
weakening this morning but with broad mid to upper level southerly
flow, skies are partly to mostly cloudy at this time from Sells
eastward. These clouds are expected to gradually diminish as the
morning progresses although they could persist a bit longer
especially over Cochise County. Meanwhile, the greatest moisture and
instability is expected to be along the international border this
afternoon and have focused the higher pops along these areas in
Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. We`ll just need to keep an eye on
the lingering clouds perhaps persisting longer than anticipated and
keeping instability down, especially in Cochise County. With the
bulk of the moisture above 600 mb and high dewpoint depressions, any
convection may produce gusty outflow winds.
Thereafter, a complex of storms may form tonight across Sonora and
push outflow northward into southeast Arizona with perhaps a bit of
increased low level moisture. In addition, a weak mid level
disturbance will perhaps aid in convective initiation with shower
and thunderstorms coverage in areas a bit farther northward on
Saturday though still favoring areas from Tucson eastward and
southward. Gusty outflow winds and perhaps localized blowing dust
might be an issue but due to low confidence have left out of the
forecast.
Looking out from Sunday and into next week, the mid to upper level
high is expected to setup in a favorable position near the four
corners through about Wednesday with some differences beyond. Expect
perhaps an uptick in storm coverage in the Tuesday/Wednesday time
frame as southeast Arizona is on the northern periphery of an
inverted trough. Bottom line is a general ramp up in coverage
through the weekend which will persist next week. It will then just
become more of the typical diurnal difficulties of determining which
days are the more active ones. Temperatures will generally remain
near normal though the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will develop around 17Z-19Z today
mainly east-to-south of KTUS, and continue into this evening.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur late tonight into early Saturday
morning, again mainly east-to-south of KTUS. Otherwise, cloud decks
will generally range from 10k-15k ft msl. Surface wind this
afternoon will be wly/nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts.
Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 10 kts at
other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur across southeast Arizona through next Thursday. The best
chance of wetting rains during much of the period will be east-to-
south of Tucson. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will
generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent with fair to
good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds through Sunday as well as
next Wednesday and Thursday will generally be terrain driven at less
than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Monday and Tuesday will generally be from
the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest speeds
Monday and Tuesday should prevail from shortly after sunrise into
the early afternoon hours.
&&
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Public...GL
Aviation/Fire Weather...Francis
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
943 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and
thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Light shower activity continues in the White
Mountains, and along and south of the eastern Mogollon Rim. These
showers are associated with the remnants of an MCS that developed
in southern Arizona during the day. Much of our shorter term model
guidance suggests these light showers will continue through the
overnight hours while spreading northward into central Navajo and
Apache Counties. Have expanded the coverage of slight chances for
showers to account for this. Otherwise, the current forecast looks
good and no further updates are anticipated at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /302 PM MST/...A west to southwest flow aloft
will be over Arizona through the remainder of the week and into
the weekend. This will keep the moisture pushed further east into
New Mexico with generally drier conditions for northern Arizona.
The exception will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White
Mountains which will see enough moisture to continue the chance
for showers and thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to
moderate rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June
through the weekend.
By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners
region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for
moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical
monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the
area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation
chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chances for thunderstorms are
forecast from 17Z Fri to 03Z Sat, primarily within the White
Mountains region. Strong and erratic winds are possible near
storms. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west
over the next several days. The coverage for showers and
thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each
day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds.
Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday.
Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning from Monday onward.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into
early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high
temperatures will run a few degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...It has been a very quiet afternoon and evening as a
remnant weak mid-level disturbance slowly tracked from south to north
across Southeast Arizona most of the day. The 24/00z KTWC sounding
indicated that there was plenty of mid-level moisture around, but
little lower-level moisture. For this reason, the majority of the
forecast area experienced a relatively cool and cloudy day with only
a few sprinkles here and there. The Tucson International Airport
managed to get up to 98 degs F this afternoon...only because the sun
came out toward the late afternoon. Otherwise, temps remained in the
90s for most of the day.
The upper-level pattern is defined by an mid-to-upper high over New
Mexico and northern Chihuahua Mexico, and a weak upper trough
extended across Southern California and the Northern Baja. May see
another weak mid-level disturbance move north along the Arizona/New
Mexico border tonight resulting in cloudy skies and a few
sprinkles. The upper trough begins to slowly drift east over
the next 24 hours, enhancing the mid-upper level lift across south
central Arizona. Since the eastern zones may be negatively influenced
by a departing weak disturbance, the favored area for storms tomorrow
looks to be mainly south of Tucson. Given the dry-lower levels,
strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow
aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal.
Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high
settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow
aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but
timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for
reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico
from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above
normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to
area being gunked over with debris clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
Generally SCT mid-level clouds around 12-15k ft with BKN-OVC
high clouds above 20k ft across the majority of Southeast Arizona
into Friday. SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded virga/-
SHRA will gradually push northward into locations mainly east of
Tucson overnight tonight through Friday afternoon. Expect generally
terrain-driven winds overnight into Friday morning less than 10
kts...becoming west to southwest 10-15 kts Friday afternoon.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are expected again Friday afternoon mainly
south Tucson with strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows to 40
kts associated with storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially
over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow
winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the
peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20
percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...The low temperature at KTUS thus far today has been 82
degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight, be the warmest
June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record is 80 degrees
from 1936 and 2015.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into
early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high
temperatures will run a few degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...It has been a very quiet afternoon and evening as a
remnant weak mid-level disturbance slowly tracked from south to north
across Southeast Arizona most of the day. The 24/00z KTWC sounding
indicated that there was plenty of mid-level moisture around, but
little lower-level moisture. For this reason, the majority of the
forecast area experienced a relatively cool and cloudy day with only
a few sprinkles here and there. The Tucson International Airport
managed to get up to 98 degs F this afternoon...only because the sun
came out toward the late afternoon. Otherwise, temps remained in the
90s for most of the day.
The upper-level pattern is defined by an mid-to-upper high over New
Mexico and northern Chihuahua Mexico, and a weak upper trough
extended across Southern California and the Northern Baja. May see
another weak mid-level disturbance move north along the Arizona/New
Mexico border tonight resulting in cloudy skies and a few
sprinkles. The upper trough begins to slowly drift east over
the next 24 hours, enhancing the mid-upper level lift across south
central Arizona. Since the eastern zones may be negatively influenced
by a departing weak disturbance, the favored area for storms tomorrow
looks to be mainly south of Tucson. Given the dry-lower levels,
strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow
aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal.
Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high
settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow
aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but
timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for
reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico
from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above
normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to
area being gunked over with debris clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
Generally SCT mid-level clouds around 12-15k ft with BKN-OVC
high clouds above 20k ft across the majority of Southeast Arizona
into Friday. SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded virga/-
SHRA will gradually push northward into locations mainly east of
Tucson overnight tonight through Friday afternoon. Expect generally
terrain-driven winds overnight into Friday morning less than 10
kts...becoming west to southwest 10-15 kts Friday afternoon.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are expected again Friday afternoon mainly
south Tucson with strong and gusty thunderstorm outflows to 40
kts associated with storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially
over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow
winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the
peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20
percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...The low temperature at KTUS thus far today has been 82
degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight, be the warmest
June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record is 80 degrees
from 1936 and 2015.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
805 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at
least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture
will seep into portions of Arizona next week leading to a threat for
showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will initially be limited to
high terrain areas, then finally move towards lower desert
communities later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The first semi-organized outflow event of the monsoon season has
essentially dissipated this evening with light dust settling and
winds subsiding. 00z KTWC and KPSR sounding data sampled more robust
moisture towards the top of the boundary layer (near 500-600 mb),
though a substantial dry subcloud layer with only 6-7 g/kg through
the mixing depth. Overall instability was limited to nearly absent,
and normally this type of profile would not support organized
outflows. However, a better defined MCV originating along the
international border was absorbed in the southerly H5 flow allowing
a measure of dynamic support and consolidating evaporative cooling
and downdrafts from virga towards the sfc.
Although the event has ended, resultant conditions have necessitated
rather large adjustments to many salient forecast parameters this
evening throughout central Arizona. Conditions should clear and
stabilize towards the previous forecast later tonight and no major
changes were made beyond that. Otherwise, have allowed the excessive
heat warning to expire understanding temperatures will remain
slightly above average, but nowhere near records or excessive levels
for late June.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016/
For Friday, a short wave on the southern periphery of the large
trough affecting the northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised
to move across the forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE
into southern AZ. However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ,
but enough to mention a slight chance of storms for our higher
terrain areas. For Saturday, we may have another similar situation
as the GFS actually depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an
upper low off the Baja. Like Friday though, the moist advection
looks to be limited due to dry air from the west. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler Friday and Saturday, thus we don`t have any
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On Sunday, an anticyclone becomes
centered near the 4 corners and temps nudge up a bit - flirting with
Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off for now on a Watch especially
in light of potential negating factors associated with convection
(clouds, dew points, etc.).
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. It seems very plausible we will see moisture
levels increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a
threat for thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for
now are still mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely
need to be adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will
be picking the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which
days will be more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly
weak with a steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels
won`t be high enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing
storms. Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud
layer so we should see potential for strong gusty winds with any
storm activity along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by
the middle of next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona
deserts in response to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Forecasting sfc winds and wind shifts will be the largest problem
for Phoenix area sites through Friday afternoon. Outflow late
Thursday afternoon caused sfc winds to become S/SE, however radar
data suggests some chance of a switch back to a SW direction or
becoming variable later this evening. Overall confidence in timing
wind directions through tonight is low. After becoming predominately
easterly late tonight, timing back to a SW component Friday looks to
similar to Thursday during late morning/early afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Timing wind shifts and determining potential for stronger gusts will
be the primary forecast challenge for SE CA aerodromes through
Friday afternoon. Some measure of a southerly component will be
preferred over the area, however variability will still be a concern
and typical wind shifts may not follow the usual pattern. Confidence
in forecasting specific wind shift times is only low to moderate.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest will bring another
period of well above normal temperatures to the region Sunday and
Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree
range. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing
fires.
Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rains
are expected Tuesday into Thursday as increasing southeasterly flow
aloft begins to increase moisture levels over the region. The best
chances for rainfall will occur over the higher terrain of south-
central AZ. Minimum humidities during the Tue-Thu period will rise
into the 15-25 percent range with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO/AJ/Kuhlman
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into
early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high
temperatures will run a few degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...If you think about it, after such an extremely hot
and record setting start to the week, today has been rather pleasant
thanks to the extensive cloud cover and areas of virga or sprinkles
or light showers. Check out the climate section for a Tucson
climatic tidbit. Western Pima county has had plenty of sun and the
highs likely will top out in the 105 to 110 range. The activity
today possibly associated with the combination of a weakening upper
level low that was off the Baja coast yesterday and has weakened as
it moved NE toward northern Baja and a weak disturbance aloft that
moved in from Sonora. For tonight, except for western Pima county,
will maintain isolated sprinkles/light showers into the evening
hours. Expect partly cloudy conditions overnight as debris clouds
from storms along the Sonora/Chihuahua state line spread north under
the southerly flow aloft.
Friday...models suggesting that there will be a residual upper level
feature around that may help focus storm development with best
chance for storms south and east of Tucson. Increased PoPs for these
areas. Highs will obviously be warmer for areas that were under
extensive cloud cover today.
Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow
aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal.
Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high
settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow
aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but
timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for
reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico
from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above
normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to
area being gunked over with debris clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
An area of layered SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded
virga/-SHRA will gradually push northward into this evening. SFC
wind generally WLY/NWLY around 10-15 kts this afternoon with a few
higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Expect terrain-driven winds
overnight into Friday at less than 10 kts. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are
expected again Friday afternoon mainly near terrain E of KTUS to the
NM border, with NWLY SFC winds around 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially
over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow
winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the
peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20
percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...Here is another climate tidbit. As 3 pm, the high
temperature at the airport has been 93 degrees. This would be the
6th coolest high temperature for June 23rd on record and the coolest
since 89 degrees in 2000. Additionally the low temperature thus far
today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight,
be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record
is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and
thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A west to southwest flow aloft will be over Arizona
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will
keep the moisture pushed further east into New Mexico with
generally drier conditions for northern Arizona. The exception
will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White Mountains which
will see enough moisture to continue the chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to moderate
rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June
through the weekend.
By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners
region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for
moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical
monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the
area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation
chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains through 02z, with erratic gusty outflow winds possible
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west
over the next several days. The coverage for showers and
thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each
day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds.
Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday.
Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning from Monday onward.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An MCV was centered between Tucson and Nogales early this afternoon
and was producing spotty showers. Cloud cover has kept lower levels
from destabilizing over southeast AZ. Hi-res models have been
keeping convection out of our area for today/tonight. However, as the
MCV drifts northward, there will be a slight chance of a weak
convective shower over our easternmost areas. For Friday, a short
wave on the southern periphery of the large trough affecting the
northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised to move across the
forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE into southern AZ.
However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ...but enough to
mention slight chance of storms for our higher terrain areas. For
Saturday, we may have another similar situation. The GFS actually
depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an upper low off Baja.
Like Friday though, the moist advection looks to be limited due to
dry air from the west. Temps will be slightly cooler Friday and again
Saturday thus we don`t have any Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On
Sunday, an anticyclone becomes centered near the 4 corners and temps
nudge up a bit - flirting with Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off
for now on a Watch - especially in light of the X-factors associated
with convection (clouds, dew points, etc.).
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Left-over debris cloudiness from thunderstorms over northern Mexico
and extreme southeastern AZ will continue to keep mid-high level sct-
bkn cloud layers over the PHX area terminals through this evening.
then slowly clear later tonight and Friday. Westerly breezes, with
gusts as high as 20 kts to continue into this evening, then become
easterly later tonight, a little later than usual. Westerly breezes
will then return on Friday afternoon, with wind speeds similar to
what we are seeing today.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to
remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as
high as 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts possible during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest to bring another
period of well-above normal temperatures to the region on Sunday and
Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree range
each day. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing
fires. Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting
rains is expected from Tuesday into next Thursday as increasing
southeasterly flow aloft begins to increase monsoon moisture levels
over the region, with the best chances for rainfall being over the
higher terrain of south-central AZ. Minimum humidities during the
Tue-Thu period to rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and
thunderstorm activity.
&&
.UPDATE...Drier air has spread into western Arizona today which
will limit shower/thunderstorm activity to far eastern Arizona.
Any showers/storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds.
Elsewhere dry and warm weather continues. No major forecast
updates this morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /520 AM MST/...Light west to southwesterly flow
aloft will keep most moisture to the east and south of our area.
Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight
chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the
eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/Peterson
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast a little over an hour ago to
increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy for the
remainder of the morning hours. Radar showed isolated areas of
mainly virga/sprinkles from Tucson east and south. Haven`t seen any
gauges yet to pick up anything measurable. However the area of
slightly stronger showers south of Santa Cruz county likely
producing measurable rainfall. This area of showers was pushing to
the north. Precipitable water values are up slightly versus 24 hours
ago with various sources showing values generally in the 1.0" to
1.2" range with higher values SW of Tucson per blended imagery.
Again most of this is above 600 mb. At the surface, dewpoint values
were in the 40s to lower 50s. Water vapor imagery this morning
showed that the upper low that was west of the Baja Spur yesterday,
and which some models yesterday wanted to move to the south today,
has lifted NE toward northern Baja. This feature bringing the upper
dynamics to produce the virga/sprinkles/light showers across
portions of SE AZ and northern Sonora MX.
The cloud cover will gradually erode as the day progresses with
partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. Still will see isolated
areas of virga/sprinkles/light showers into the afternoon hours.
Can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two in areas that will have more
sunshine. The highs today may also be a touch too warm. Will
continue to watch trends over the next several hours before running
out another forecast update.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL will gradually decrease in
coverage through the afternoon. Isolated -SHRA thru this evening.
SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher
gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds
during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
730 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.UPDATE...Just ran out a quick update to increase cloud cover to
mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy this morning. Kept sprinkles in
the forecast this morning, although could see some measurable rain
near the International border as an area of showers just south of
the border pushes north. Didn`t touch the high temperatures but will
evaluate. Another update likely later this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
520 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal
circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Light westerly flow aloft will keep most moisture to
the west and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to
our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns
and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially
over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible. SFC winds
light til 17z then btwn 17z-02z Fri, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain
regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next
week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher.
Temperatures will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with
a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County.
For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and
thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no
updates are anticipated this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to
retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west
coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow
causing convective activity to diminish across the state through
Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few
showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of
the Mogollon Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge
will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting
up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation
will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico.
Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air
will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower
elevations next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow
aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related
movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did
develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted
waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in
Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for
southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south-
central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow-
off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With
shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning
has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which
it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps
and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave
heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner
westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph
possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current
satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to
current trends.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers
over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is
an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over
the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered
near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the
latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also
lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus,
Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area).
For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the
weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in
moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight
chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps
nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for
Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall,
temps remain above normal.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited
convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across
northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back
into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few
degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still
holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and
portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right
trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow
afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as
deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z
analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas
and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the
forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below
for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of
precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the
higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than
today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
404 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
Early this morning a broad mid-level ridge remained in place across
the central and southern U.S. with water vapor imagery showing an
embedded shortwave over western Kansas that was helping to support a
cluster of early morning storms across southwest and south central
Kansas. At the surface, a warm front was stretched across east
central Kansas with a few scattered showers and storms noted south
of this boundary across southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri.
Models show this warm front slowly lifting northward across the CWA
today. As the shortwave over western Kansas advances into eastern
Kansas this morning with the warm front nearby, short-range models
show the potential for some scattered storms to develop across
central and east central Kansas this morning and lift northward into
north central and northeast Kansas through the day. Forcing looks to
be fairly weak with barely 20kts of 0-6km bulk shear through the
day. While 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE may be present, the weak forcing
and weak shear should keep storms sub-severe today. Due to the
uncertainty in the coverage of thunderstorm development amongst the
short-range models, have only slight to chance PoPs in for today.
With the warm front lifting into extreme northeast Kansas by early
this evening, any lingering isolated to scattered storms should be
focused near the NE/KS border. As a result, have PoPs diminishing
from south to north this evening and expect that much of the CWA
should remain predominantly dry. Another embedded shortwave is
expected to develop overnight across northwest and north central
Kansas with some isentropic lift noted across north central Kansas.
While there may not be much moisture present yet over north central
Kansas overnight into Saturday morning, felt that with the
isentropic lift in place it was worth keeping some slight chance
PoPs over far north central Kansas.
Despite some scattered low/mid-level clouds today, expect the breezy
southerly winds to aid in warm-air advection enough to support
afternoon high temperatures in the low/mid 90s with heat indices in
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. The persistent southerly winds
and scattered cloud cover should keep overnight low temperatures a
bit warmer with lows only dropping into the low/mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will move along the Canadian
border, and will be strong enough to push a cold front into the
forecast area. Saturday will be hot as the thermal axis
immediately in advance of the cold front builds from SW into NE
Kansas. Models are in strong agreement with the timing of the
front entering the area after peak heating, but there is also an
expectation for storms and clouds to develop along the front and
possibly cool temperatures just slightly by late day. Regardless,
expect highs in the upper 90s in central KS to the middle 90s in
eastern KS. Dewpoints will probably mix out a bit in this
environment as well so expect max heat indices in the 98-104
range.
Strong convergence along the front will likely lead to
thunderstorm development, and those storms are likely to continue
as the front pushes southeast into the area although it is
uncertain just how widespread the coverage will remain overnight.
Moderate instability is expected with weak and disorganized shear
profiles. For the most part, will probably be looking for non-
severe storms although in the expected hot environment, there is
always that chance for sporadic severe downbursts with the
strongest storms, and also some low end potential for organized
bowing segments to develop with attendant wind threat. For now
though, the severe risk appears marginal and is reflected as such
in the SPC outlook.
The cold front is likely to stall over southern parts of the area
on Sunday with a rather unstable airmass expected to linger
through Sunday evening. There are model suggestions of a weak
short wave trough moving along the front on Sunday which could
trigger another round of thunderstorm development...again in the
moderate CAPE/low shear environment. A very similar scenario seems
likely to play out for Monday. So, while the chances for
widespread thunderstorms are not outstanding each day, the low
level focus exists with some potential for upper support and have
kept precip chances in the area through the period.
The flow pattern becomes more northwesterly by Tuesday with cooler
air filtering into northeast KS and highs finally expected to drop
back into the 80s. A well-organized short wave trough is expected
to move across the area from NW to SE Wednesday into Thursday and
will provide the area with several chances for thunderstorms. Wind
shear will be much better with this system so will want to watch
the period for severe potential. Otherwise expect generally cooler
temperatures through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
Will keep VFR forecast at this time but note thunderstorms may be
near terminals periodically Friday. Enough time for next issuance
to take a look but at this time confidence too low to add to
forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016
As the upper ridge over the plains shifts east ahead of the upper
low moving east through Montana along the U.S./Canada border, a
short wave trough embedded in the upper flow moves off the central
Rockies and across the central high plains region during the
evening and overnight hours tonight. During this time a
prefrontal trough deepens along the front range ahead of a cold
front that is expected to move across the forecast area early
Saturday. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop
over the higher terrain to the west and move over a more favorable
instability environment with more available moisture east of the
deepening surface trough this evening with a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms.High temperatures today with southerly flow
ahead of the surface trough will be well into the 90s.
High temperatures on Saturday following the cold front will be in
the 80s to lower 90s. On Saturday there may be a few lingering
early morning showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of
the forecast area. Isolated storms are expected to redevelop and
become scattered over the far eastern sections of the forecast
area by afternoon along and ahead of the cold front where there is
a more favorable shear profile and greater instability and
available moisture. There is still only a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms across the southeast portion of the forecast area in
the vicinity of the front.
Expect highs to be back into the lower 90s on Sunday with weak
westerly flow aloft and high pressure at the surface in the wake
of the cold front. A few thunderstorms are being hinted at mainly
along the southern extent of the forecast area in closer proximity
to the stationary boundary, but have gone mostly dry across the
forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016
The extended period has a very dominate ridge sitting over the
western CONUS with a closed low over the far northeastern states.
There is also a closed low that is sitting over the North Pacific
that tries to push east, but the ridge is very strong and it doesn`t
make much of a dent until Friday. As for the CWA, there are chances
for precipitation everyday; with best chances on Monday and
Wednesday; but still favorable chances Tuesday and Thursday. MUCAPE
values get up to 2300 J/kg Monday with bulk shear around 30 kts.
Wednesday has MUCAPE values of around 3500 J/kg and bulk shear up to
50 kts. In addition, Tuesday and Wednesday show to have 700 mb
shortwaves that push over the region crating better lift. Overall,
precipitation chances are expected next week but exact timing and
intensity will become more clear as the days get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms may still be possible, however confidence
that this would impact KGLD has greatly diminished and trends on
radar have been towards current activity weakening before reaching
KMCK. Fog/stratus may be possible in eastern Colorado by 12z, but
confidence is low that this would reach KGLD and VFR conditions
were prevailed. Winds should increase during the afternoon Friday
before decreasing again around sunset.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
Another MCV may be developing across the area early this morning,
however, it should be exiting the forecast area by sunrise. As the
leftover outflow boundary will be likely well off to the east of our
area and subsidence settles in across the area, a dry forecast is
in place for the rest of the day. The models once again develop
higher terrain surface based storms late in the day, that with
weak steering flow remain in eastern Colorado and as far east as
northwest Kansas by the late evening. The outflow may not modify
the highs as much today as the cloud cover seemed to on Thursday,
as it is more likely longer duration insolation should be seen
today.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
The next chance for focused thunderstorm development appears in the
late Saturday timeframe, along a surface boundary that straddles
the forecast area. These storms would likely not have significant
shear or steering also and might be tied to the boundary unless they
can develop a cold pool. At the same time, a closed low is shown by
the models to be moving through the northern Plains, maintaining a
nearly zonal flow aloft across the central Plains. Beyond that,
mesoscale features become increasingly difficult to infer from the
larger pattern, however the upper ridge does begin to redevelop
into mid week, supporting the warmer temperatures in the 90s
we`ve seen so far.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this evening with the possibility of a
squall line moving through the area overnight. If this squall
line comes to fruition, periods of MVFR conditions will be
observed. Winds will generally be from the east southeast at less
than 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 MMM 95 68 / 20 10 20 40
GCK 95 MMM 95 67 / 20 20 20 20
EHA 95 MMM 95 67 / 20 20 20 30
LBL 96 MMM 97 68 / 20 10 20 30
HYS 94 MMM 94 66 / 20 20 30 30
P28 95 MMM 97 73 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
Forecast Highlight:
Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru
next Thu.
Today:
A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border
throughout the night. Along & north of the front, thunderstorms
havebeen ongoing, the majority of which are the remnants of a
weakening MCS moving slowly east over SW KS. However, a north/south
oriented cluster of thunderstorms is slowly expanding from Kay
County OK to Butler County very close to a weak low-level jet. With
a strong mid-upper ridge situated from the Srn Plains to Nebraska &
IA, mid-level flow has been weak. As such locally heavy rains have
occurred, most notably Kay County OK but rainfall rates are also
increasing in Sumner & Butler counties. As a lower-deck trof slowly
strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850 mb moisture axis would shift
slowly east across Ern KS. As such thunderstorms should be confined
to primarily SE KS this afternoon.
Tonight:
As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK
Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early
this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would be
the nwrn-most counties (Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead mid-
level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS border
will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As such a
few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties very early
Sat Morning.
Rest of the Weekend:
An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA
& OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn
Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS
late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would
likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast
toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with
the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear
remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal
at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across
the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms
would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn
segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner
across KS interacting with a very moist airmass, thunderstorms would
be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited forecast
addresses this situaton and was therefore kept intact.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations
overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at
this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the
high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK
panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this
convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into
early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest
convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of
this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD
TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time
frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping
South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be,
but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs
may be possible.
After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the
area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back
north as a warm front.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 94 74 98 76 / 30 10 10 30
Hutchinson 95 74 99 74 / 30 10 10 40
Newton 93 73 97 75 / 30 10 10 30
ElDorado 93 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 30
Winfield-KWLD 94 74 96 77 / 30 10 10 20
Russell 95 74 99 70 / 20 20 40 60
Great Bend 96 74 99 70 / 20 20 30 60
Salina 95 75 100 73 / 20 10 20 50
McPherson 95 74 99 74 / 20 10 20 40
Coffeyville 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
Chanute 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 20
Iola 91 72 94 74 / 40 10 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 92 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
Forecast Highlight:
Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru
next Thu.
Today:
A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border
throughout the night. Along & north of the front, thunderstorms
havebeen ongoing, the majority of which are the remnants of a
weakening MCS moving slowly east over SW KS. However, a north/south
oriented cluster of thunderstorms is slowly expanding from Kay
County OK to Butler County very close to a weak low-level jet. With
a strong mid-upper ridge situated from the Srn Plains to Nebraska &
IA, mid-level flow has been weak. As such locally heavy rains have
occurred, most notably Kay County OK but rainfall rates are also
increasing in Sumner & Butler counties. As a lower-deck trof slowly
strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850 mb moisture axis would shift
slowly east across Ern KS. As such thunderstorms should be confined
to primarily SE KS this afternoon.
Tonight:
As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK
Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early
this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would be
the nwrn-most counties (Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead mid-
level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS border
will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As such a
few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties very early
Sat Morning.
Rest of the Weekend:
An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA
& OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn
Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS
late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would
likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast
toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with
the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear
remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal
at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across
the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms
would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn
segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner
across KS interacting with a very moist airmass, thunderstorms would
be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited forecast
addresses this situaton and was therefore kept intact.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations
overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at
this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the
high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK
panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this
convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into
early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest
convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of
this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD
TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time
frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping
South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be,
but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs
may be possible.
After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the
area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back
north as a warm front.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 94 74 98 76 / 30 10 10 30
Hutchinson 95 74 99 74 / 30 10 10 40
Newton 93 73 97 75 / 30 10 10 30
ElDorado 93 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 30
Winfield-KWLD 94 74 96 77 / 30 10 10 20
Russell 95 74 99 70 / 20 20 40 60
Great Bend 96 74 99 70 / 20 20 30 60
Salina 95 75 100 73 / 20 10 20 50
McPherson 95 74 99 74 / 20 10 20 40
Coffeyville 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
Chanute 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 20
Iola 91 72 94 74 / 40 10 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 92 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
Forecast Highlight:
Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru
next Thu.
Today:
A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border
throughout the night. Along & north of the front, the majority of
which are the remnants of a weakening MCS moving slowly east over
SW KS. However, a north/south oriented cluster of thunderstorms is
slowly expanding from Kay County OK to Butler County very close to
a weak low-level jet. With a strong mid- upper ridge situated from
the Srn Plains to Nebraska & IA mid-level flow has been weak. As
such locally heavy rains have occurred, most notably Kay County OK
but rainfall rates are also increasing in Sumner & Butler counties.
As a lower-deck trof slowly strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850
mb moisture axis would shift slowly east across Ern KS. As such
the rain should be confined to SE KS this afternoon.
Tonight:
As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK
Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early
this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would
be the nwrn-most counties, Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead
mid-level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS
border will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As
such a few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties
very early Sat Morning.
Rest of the Weekend:
An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA
& OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn
Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS
late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would
likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast
toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with
the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear
remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal
at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across
the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms
would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn
segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016
With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner
across KS interacting with a very moist airmass thunderstorms
would be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited
forecast was kept intact.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations
overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at
this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the
high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK
panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this
convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into
early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest
convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of
this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD
TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time
frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping
South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be,
but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs
may be possible.
After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the
area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back
north as a warm front.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 94 74 98 76 / 30 10 10 30
Hutchinson 95 74 99 74 / 30 10 10 40
Newton 93 73 97 75 / 30 10 10 30
ElDorado 93 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 30
Winfield-KWLD 94 74 96 77 / 30 10 10 20
Russell 95 74 99 70 / 20 20 40 60
Great Bend 96 74 99 70 / 20 20 30 60
Salina 95 75 100 73 / 20 10 20 50
McPherson 95 74 99 74 / 20 10 20 40
Coffeyville 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
Chanute 92 72 94 75 / 30 10 10 20
Iola 91 72 94 74 / 40 10 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 92 73 94 75 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1144 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Ongoing early morning convective activity continues eastward
across southwest KS today along a frontal boundary that extends
eastward into western Missouri and is laid up along the front
range on the western side. Convective activity is expected to
reinitiates later today along the front range and frontal
boundary where moisture has pooled and the instability axis is
located. Scattered storms will move east across the region
overnight. The is currently a slight risk of severe storms over
east central Colorado extending into west central Kansas. The main
threat will be winds and large hail with some localized heavy
rainfall possibly producing some flash flooding during the evening
hours.
The stronger westerly flow aloft remains well north of the
forecast area, but several weaker short wave trough move east of
the Rockies and across the central high plains through the short
term period. These short waves are appearing as diurnally driven
convective feedback features in the models as each of them seem to
appear over the higher terrain late each afternoon and move east
over the plains states during the afternoon and overnight hours
as they weaken downstream. As a result, expect isolated to
scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms to move across
the forecast area again Friday and Saturday. Additionally a cold
front will move across the central high plains region during the
day on Saturday in advance of the upper low moving east of the
northern Rockies and across the northern high plains in the
vicinity of U.S./Canada border. This will provide a good focus for
afternoon storms on Saturday.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs rising
well into the 90s again on Friday, and backing off somewhat into
the 80s and lower 90s again on Saturday with the passage of the
cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of precipitation through the period
and high temperatures. Satellite showing an amplified flow across
the Pacific to along the west coast of North America. The flow
flattens out over the country with a broad ridge across the southern
portion and lesser ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northern
portion.
Models differ with details on shortwave troughs through the Friday
night through Sunday period. Models are suffering a lot from
convective feedback and am thinking that they are overdoing the
convection/qpf, especially from the end of Saturday night into
Sunday. In cases would like to have made some specific periods dry
but collaboration is keeping some kind of mention of thunderstorms
in the forecast through the entire period.
Friday night...Shortwave trough is near the western end of the later
at beginning of the period with surface convergence near or just
west. Problem is that 700 mb are plus 16 to 17. At this time will
confine a slight chance to the far west initially. Expect
thunderstorms to work their way east across the area as shortwave
moves across.
After midnight another shortwave trough moves at the same time the
front moves through. This looks to either redevelop precipitation or
keep it going through the rest of the night.
Saturday/Saturday night...There looks to be ongoing thunderstorms in
at the start of the morning. Question then becomes how much
thunderstorm activity will be around in afternoon and night. Right
rear quadrant of upper jet begins to affect the area in the
afternoon and continues into the evening hours. However, you would
think that the front and second shortwave should be pushing the
moisture and thunderstorms out of the area by mid to late afternoon.
At this time will keep something in the southeast half but am
thinking the models are overdoing the qpf.
Front will cool temperatures off about 5 to 10 degrees. Tended to
go toward the slightly cooler guidance.
Sunday...Was briefed that this period would be dry. However, a
number of minor waves, some convectively induced, look to
sporadically produce precipitation. Uncertainty and collaboration
have kept some kind of pops in here. My gut feeling this day will be
dry.
Sunday night through Thursday...Model disagreement starts at the
beginning of this period and gets worse with time. It involves the
system moving from south central into eastern Canada and the
resulting troughing over the eastern portion of the country. It also
involves how the models handle the troughiness along the west coast.
The handling or mishandling of these features affects the amplitude
and the position of the western ridge. This ridge moves west with
time and models typically have difficulty in retrogressing patterns.
Models last week also had trouble with a similar setup. No matter
which model you choose there looks to be numerous, hard time,
shortwave troughs moving through in this flow.
There looks to be waffling stationary boundary across the area
during this time and because of the differences aloft, they differ
on where they put this boundary. As a result the extended gave me
slight chance to chance pops. Give the pattern, the uncertainty, and
near impossibility of getting the details right at this time scale,
have no problem in keeping those pops with only cosmetic changes.
This period does have the potential to be active and wet. Also a
result of the uncertainty, left the temperatures alone as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms may still be possible, however confidence
that this would impact KGLD has greatly diminished and trends on
radar have been towards current activity weakening before reaching
KMCK. Fog/stratus may be possible in eastern Colorado by 12z, but
confidence is low that this would reach KGLD and VFR conditions
were prevailed. Winds should increase during the afternoon Friday
before decreasing again around sunset.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1144 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Ongoing early morning convective activity continues eastward
across southwest KS today along a frontal boundary that extends
eastward into western Missouri and is laid up along the front
range on the western side. Convective activity is expected to
reinitiates later today along the front range and frontal
boundary where moisture has pooled and the instability axis is
located. Scattered storms will move east across the region
overnight. The is currently a slight risk of severe storms over
east central Colorado extending into west central Kansas. The main
threat will be winds and large hail with some localized heavy
rainfall possibly producing some flash flooding during the evening
hours.
The stronger westerly flow aloft remains well north of the
forecast area, but several weaker short wave trough move east of
the Rockies and across the central high plains through the short
term period. These short waves are appearing as diurnally driven
convective feedback features in the models as each of them seem to
appear over the higher terrain late each afternoon and move east
over the plains states during the afternoon and overnight hours
as they weaken downstream. As a result, expect isolated to
scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms to move across
the forecast area again Friday and Saturday. Additionally a cold
front will move across the central high plains region during the
day on Saturday in advance of the upper low moving east of the
northern Rockies and across the northern high plains in the
vicinity of U.S./Canada border. This will provide a good focus for
afternoon storms on Saturday.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs rising
well into the 90s again on Friday, and backing off somewhat into
the 80s and lower 90s again on Saturday with the passage of the
cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of precipitation through the period
and high temperatures. Satellite showing an amplified flow across
the Pacific to along the west coast of North America. The flow
flattens out over the country with a broad ridge across the southern
portion and lesser ridging/nearly zonal flow over the northern
portion.
Models differ with details on shortwave troughs through the Friday
night through Sunday period. Models are suffering a lot from
convective feedback and am thinking that they are overdoing the
convection/qpf, especially from the end of Saturday night into
Sunday. In cases would like to have made some specific periods dry
but collaboration is keeping some kind of mention of thunderstorms
in the forecast through the entire period.
Friday night...Shortwave trough is near the western end of the later
at beginning of the period with surface convergence near or just
west. Problem is that 700 mb are plus 16 to 17. At this time will
confine a slight chance to the far west initially. Expect
thunderstorms to work their way east across the area as shortwave
moves across.
After midnight another shortwave trough moves at the same time the
front moves through. This looks to either redevelop precipitation or
keep it going through the rest of the night.
Saturday/Saturday night...There looks to be ongoing thunderstorms in
at the start of the morning. Question then becomes how much
thunderstorm activity will be around in afternoon and night. Right
rear quadrant of upper jet begins to affect the area in the
afternoon and continues into the evening hours. However, you would
think that the front and second shortwave should be pushing the
moisture and thunderstorms out of the area by mid to late afternoon.
At this time will keep something in the southeast half but am
thinking the models are overdoing the qpf.
Front will cool temperatures off about 5 to 10 degrees. Tended to
go toward the slightly cooler guidance.
Sunday...Was briefed that this period would be dry. However, a
number of minor waves, some convectively induced, look to
sporadically produce precipitation. Uncertainty and collaboration
have kept some kind of pops in here. My gut feeling this day will be
dry.
Sunday night through Thursday...Model disagreement starts at the
beginning of this period and gets worse with time. It involves the
system moving from south central into eastern Canada and the
resulting troughing over the eastern portion of the country. It also
involves how the models handle the troughiness along the west coast.
The handling or mishandling of these features affects the amplitude
and the position of the western ridge. This ridge moves west with
time and models typically have difficulty in retrogressing patterns.
Models last week also had trouble with a similar setup. No matter
which model you choose there looks to be numerous, hard time,
shortwave troughs moving through in this flow.
There looks to be waffling stationary boundary across the area
during this time and because of the differences aloft, they differ
on where they put this boundary. As a result the extended gave me
slight chance to chance pops. Give the pattern, the uncertainty, and
near impossibility of getting the details right at this time scale,
have no problem in keeping those pops with only cosmetic changes.
This period does have the potential to be active and wet. Also a
result of the uncertainty, left the temperatures alone as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms may still be possible, however confidence
that this would impact KGLD has greatly diminished and trends on
radar have been towards current activity weakening before reaching
KMCK. Fog/stratus may be possible in eastern Colorado by 12z, but
confidence is low that this would reach KGLD and VFR conditions
were prevailed. Winds should increase during the afternoon Friday
before decreasing again around sunset.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Afternoon complex of storms is continuing to move to the east, with
just some stratiform showers on the western edge still lingering
across SE KS. Atmosphere in its wake across most of the forecast
area, has stabilized. So expecting a lull in the convective chances
for the rest of the evening hours. Still some concern for elevated
convection to redevelop late tonight or storms currently over the
high plains to drop east-southeast into western areas of the
forecast area early Fri morning. Current hi-res solutions differ on
how things will evolve early Fri morning. But latest RAP suggests
low level moisture will increase from the OK panhandle into South
Central KS after midnight. This moisture will overrun the stationary
frontal boundary that remains draped across SRN KS. Highly
conditional on if this moisture transport will be enough for storms
to redevelop over South Central KS, or will it keep the high plains
convection going east. Lots of uncertainty with either chance, but
with the stationary front draped across the area will keep some low
pops into Fri morning, in case either scenario leads to convection.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Tonight into Friday:
Residual frontal boundary, contaminated largely by outflow effects
from the ongoing mcv-induced storm complex over south-central
Kansas, extends eastward from southern Kansas into southern
Missouri. Highest thunderstorm probabilities into early this
evening, should exist underneath and just east of this eastward
tracking mcv, with renewed convective development along the
attendant outflow boundaries. Very strong instability, anomalously
high precipitable water, steep low-level lapse rates exist in a
west-east axis underneath the above features, with modest deep
layer shear. Therefore, some of the stronger storm cores within
multi-cell clusters will produce strong-severe wet downburst winds
and torrential rainfall. Isolated diurnally-tied, nickel-quarter
size hail is also a threat. There should be a brief lull this
evening northwest of the KS Turnpike, with temporarily stabilized
air behind the mcv storm complex. However, additional convection
emanating from the higher terrain to the west within the monsoonal
plume, should propagate eastward overnight into a weak southerly
low-level jet. Storm chances should therefore increase again late
tonight into the early morning hours in central and south-central
Kansas. This activity would still be capable of strong downburst
winds and torrential rainfall under the strongest cores or multi-
cell clusters.
Will maintain at least low chances of lingering convection in
eastern Kansas Friday (mainly through midday), otherwise, return
southerly flow and some sunshine will lead to a return to the heat
and humidity for much of the area.
It is possible that the heat advisory for extreme southeast KS near
the Oklahoma border may be cancelled early, depending on how far
east convective outlfow effects reach in the next few hours.
Saturday through Sunday:
A strong, somewhat compact upper trough will sweep eastward from the
Northern Intermountain region, across the Northern Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley during this period. The associated cold
front will slide southward into the Kansas region late Saturday,
while weakening and stalling somehere across the state by Sunday,
most likely in the south, while retaining its identity a bit more
than the models suggest. Well-mixed breezy south-southwesterly
boundary layer winds will allow very warm to hot conditions
Saturday ahead of the front, with highs in the mid-upper 90s.
Depending on how much the boundary layer dewpoints can lower,
highs around 100 will be possible northwest of the Kansas
Turnpike. With the upper ridge flattened, the monsoonal moist
plume will stretch from the southern rockies eastward over Kansas
near the front. Therefore, chances for at least scattered
thunderstorms appear reasonable initially in Central Kansas late
Saturday, potentially spreading into southern Kansas by Sunday.
Although highs may trim back a few degrees Sunday with the front
and storms in the region, readings will likely remain slightly
above normal with rather humid air.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
The medium range models have been consistent in showing the upper
ridge retrograding to the western states early next week, with
longwave upper troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern
will result in increased northwesterly flow aloft over the Central
Plains. A lingering frontal zone across the Central Plains will
serve as a focus for periodic thunderstorm chances, with upslope
flow over the high plains and embedded upper disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft serving as triggers for storms as well. The
front is progged to meander slowly southward by Thursday, in part
due to the embedded disturbances traversing the northwest flow
aloft, and also from the outflow effects of storm complexes. As a
result, slightly warmer than normal temperatures early in the
week, are projected to fall back to slightly below normal by
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations
overnight into Fri. SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at
this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the
high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK
panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this
convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into
early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest
convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of
this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD
TAFS. Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time
frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping
South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be,
but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs
may be possible.
After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the
area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back
north as a warm front.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10
Hutchinson 70 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10
Newton 71 94 74 96 / 50 30 10 10
ElDorado 73 94 74 95 / 50 30 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 74 95 74 96 / 40 20 10 10
Russell 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 40
Great Bend 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 30
Salina 71 96 75 97 / 40 30 10 20
McPherson 72 95 74 97 / 50 30 10 10
Coffeyville 72 93 73 94 / 80 20 10 10
Chanute 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10
Iola 70 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1145 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
The MCV from this morning continues to develop a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon across south central Kansas.
Meanwhile the stationary front is oriented west to east from central
Morris through Osage and Franklin counties. South of the front, sfc
inhibition continues to weaken while sfc based CAPE is up to near
3000 J/KG in this area. Effective shear remains weak and focuses
above 6 KM at 25 to 30 kts. This should provide ample support for
convection to develop ahead of the MCV and along the boundary after
4 PM through early evening. A few of the stronger updrafts may
produce hail up to an inch in diameter and downburst winds in excess
of 60 mph. Given the slower motion of the midlevel winds and the
possibility for training near the boundary, locally heavy rainfall
is possible, even though flash flood guidance is still pretty high
at around 3 inches for one hour.
Later this evening is more uncertain for precipitation chances as
latest short term and mid term guidance is cuing on the better
forcing north and well south of the CWA. The low level jet at 850 mb
increases to 25 kts from the southwest, with southeasterly winds at
the sfc creating some enhancement in lift for perhaps isolated
thunderstorms to occur over north central areas. Have trended back
precip chances over northeast and far eastern areas through Friday
morning with a good possibility for much of the area to stay dry.
On Friday afternoon, remnants of the MCV are expected to lift
northeast with aid from the secondary upper trough across southern
Nebraska. Shear is once again pretty weak at or below 20 kts while
ample elevated instability resides, especially eastern areas by the
peak heating of the day in excess of 3000 J/KG. Have focused the
highest pops in this area where the cap will be weak enough for
thunderstorm development. A few storms may become marginally severe,
producing large hail and damaging winds. Despite the mid level
clouds, have trended temps a few degrees warmer in the lower to
middle 90s given the increased warm advection from the south.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
For Friday night, there does not appear to be much in the way of
large scale forcing for convection. Although there are signs in the
model solutions of some vorticity persisting within the weak
westerlies just north of the mean upper ridge. Because of this it is
hard to go with a dry forecast and think there could be some evening
storms over eastern KS before the vort maximum drifts east into MO.
The GFS and NAM also develop a warm air advection (WAA) pattern
across central KS after midnight. Confidence in this potential is on
the low side because the more aggressive GFS with widespread QPF
shows a less favorable forecast sounding, while the NAM has a clear
WAA pattern in the forecast sounding but much more limited coverage
of storms. Therefore have only kept a slight chance POP across north
central KS for the overnight hours due to the mixed signals.
For Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, there is good agreement
among the models in a closed low moving across the northern plains.
This is expected to bring a cold front into the forecast area by the
afternoon hours and potentially move it south through the night.
There should be reasonable instability ahead of the front as
dewpoints around 70 degrees. Since the better dynamics with the
upper low remain well to the north, the main question for POPs is
whether the lift from the front will be enough to overcome a weak
cap. Have chance POPs in the forecast for the frontal boundary and
decided not to go likely just yet as forecast soundings show a
deeply mixed boundary layer with still some CIN to a surface parcel.
So if the frontal circulation isn`t deep enough, the cap could hold.
With the forecast area within the warm sector for much of the day,
lows should be mild with readings expected to be in the lower and
mid 70s. Have continued with highs in the mid and upper 90s
expecting the boundary layer to mix close to 800MB.
For Sunday, there is some question as to how far the frontal
boundary will go south with the GFS holding it up across the area
for Sunday. Convergence along this boundary along with daytime
heating could be enough for scattered showers and storms so have a
low chance POP through the day. The boundary layer is not expected
to mix quite as deeply for Sunday with models showing some cooler
850 MB temps and lower thicknesses. Because of this, highs are
forecast a little cooler in the lower and mid 90s.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
The extended period is expected to see a break down the persistent
upper level ridging over the Central Plains. A strong upper level
trough is expected to be centered over the Great Lakes region early
next week. This trough will help focus the ridge axis further west
across the Rockies, allowing temperatures to cool and rain chances
to increase. Along with the cooler temperatures, the Great Lakes
trough will bring a weak cold front through the area on Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it
traverses the CWA. With northwest flow and multiple embedded
shortwaves within the flow, I have at least slight chance PoPs
through the remainder of the period. However, the best chance for
precip looks to come Wednesday into Thursday as a strong vort max
rides down the eastern fringe of the ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
Will keep VFR forecast at this time but note thunderstorms may be
near terminals periodically Friday. Enough time for next issuance
to take a look but at this time confidence too low to add to
forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters/Baerg
AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
919 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Afternoon complex of storms is continuing to move to the east, with
just some stratiform showers on the western edge still lingering
across SE KS. Atmosphere in its wake across most of the forecast
area, has stabilized. So expecting a lull in the convective chances
for the rest of the evening hours. Still some concern for elevated
convection to redevelop late tonight or storms currently over the
high plains to drop east-southeast into western areas of the
forecast area early Fri morning. Current hi-res solutions differ on
how things will evolve early Fri morning. But latest RAP suggests
low level moisture will increase from the OK panhandle into South
Central KS after midnight. This moisture will overrun the stationary
frontal boundary that remains draped across SRN KS. Highly
conditional on if this moisture transport will be enough for storms
to redevelop over South Central KS, or will it keep the high plains
convection going east. Lots of uncertainty with either chance, but
with the stationary front draped across the area will keep some low
pops into Fri morning, in case either scenario leads to convection.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Tonight into Friday:
Residual frontal boundary, contaminated largely by outflow effects
from the ongoing mcv-induced storm complex over south-central
Kansas, extends eastward from southern Kansas into southern
Missouri. Highest thunderstorm probabilities into early this
evening, should exist underneath and just east of this eastward
tracking mcv, with renewed convective development along the
attendant outflow boundaries. Very strong instability, anomalously
high precipitable water, steep low-level lapse rates exist in a
west-east axis underneath the above features, with modest deep
layer shear. Therefore, some of the stronger storm cores within
multi-cell clusters will produce strong-severe wet downburst winds
and torrential rainfall. Isolated diurnally-tied, nickel-quarter
size hail is also a threat. There should be a brief lull this
evening northwest of the KS Turnpike, with temporarily stabilized
air behind the mcv storm complex. However, additional convection
emanating from the higher terrain to the west within the monsoonal
plume, should propagate eastward overnight into a weak southerly
low-level jet. Storm chances should therefore increase again late
tonight into the early morning hours in central and south-central
Kansas. This activity would still be capable of strong downburst
winds and torrential rainfall under the strongest cores or multi-
cell clusters.
Will maintain at least low chances of lingering convection in
eastern Kansas Friday (mainly through midday), otherwise, return
southerly flow and some sunshine will lead to a return to the heat
and humidity for much of the area.
It is possible that the heat advisory for extreme southeast KS near
the Oklahoma border may be cancelled early, depending on how far
east convective outlfow effects reach in the next few hours.
Saturday through Sunday:
A strong, somewhat compact upper trough will sweep eastward from the
Northern Intermountain region, across the Northern Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley during this period. The associated cold
front will slide southward into the Kansas region late Saturday,
while weakening and stalling somehere across the state by Sunday,
most likely in the south, while retaining its identity a bit more
than the models suggest. Well-mixed breezy south-southwesterly
boundary layer winds will allow very warm to hot conditions
Saturday ahead of the front, with highs in the mid-upper 90s.
Depending on how much the boundary layer dewpoints can lower,
highs around 100 will be possible northwest of the Kansas
Turnpike. With the upper ridge flattened, the monsoonal moist
plume will stretch from the southern rockies eastward over Kansas
near the front. Therefore, chances for at least scattered
thunderstorms appear reasonable initially in Central Kansas late
Saturday, potentially spreading into southern Kansas by Sunday.
Although highs may trim back a few degrees Sunday with the front
and storms in the region, readings will likely remain slightly
above normal with rather humid air.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
The medium range models have been consistent in showing the upper
ridge retrograding to the western states early next week, with
longwave upper troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern
will result in increased northwesterly flow aloft over the Central
Plains. A lingering frontal zone across the Central Plains will
serve as a focus for periodic thunderstorm chances, with upslope
flow over the high plains and embedded upper disturbances in the
northwest flow aloft serving as triggers for storms as well. The
front is progged to meander slowly southward by Thursday, in part
due to the embedded disturbances traversing the northwest flow
aloft, and also from the outflow effects of storm complexes. As a
result, slightly warmer than normal temperatures early in the
week, are projected to fall back to slightly below normal by
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016
Complex of storms situated just to the north of the stalled frontal
boundary across SE KS will continue to make progress to the east
into SW MO this evening. Will go with prevailing TSRA and MVFR vsbys
with this convection for KCNU for a few hours. Otherwise expect a
lull in the convection for the rest of the evening hours for the
rest of the forecast area, with VFR conditions expected. Stationary
frontal boundary will remain over the area overnight, with possible
convective redevelopment just to the north of stalled boundary over
SRN KS late tonight or early Fri morning. Some uncertainty on
whether this convection will develop, but think chances are high
enough to add a VCTS for KICT/KHUT/KGBD and KCNU into early Fri
morning, but chances are highly conditional. A little more uncertain
whether CEN KS will see this redevelopment, but will add some VCSH
for KSLN as well.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10
Hutchinson 72 95 74 97 / 50 20 10 10
Newton 72 94 74 96 / 50 30 10 10
ElDorado 73 94 74 95 / 50 30 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 74 95 74 96 / 40 20 10 10
Russell 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 40
Great Bend 70 96 74 97 / 50 20 20 30
Salina 71 96 75 97 / 40 30 10 20
McPherson 72 95 74 97 / 50 30 10 10
Coffeyville 73 93 73 94 / 80 20 10 10
Chanute 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10
Iola 70 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 71 92 73 94 / 80 30 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will be around through the weekend into
next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will
run near normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery showed clear skies across
western Pima County this morning, with scattered clouds eastward to
the NM border. Lingering shower activity from overnight was
continuing to diminish along with the cloud cover. Area sfc
temperatures as of 24/15z ranged from the low 80s to low 90s in the
valleys with cooler temperatures in the mountains. Sfc dewpoints
were showing an increase of anywhere from 1 to 7 degrees compared to
24 hours ago. The 24/12z KTWC RAOB indicated 1.4 inches of PWAT
along with almost 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE and a LI of -4. With
ingredients in place, the majority of moisture located above 600 mb,
and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, we will have to watch for strong and
gusty outflows with any storms that develop this afternoon.
That said, latest runs of the hi-res models (including the
HRRR/WRFEMS/UA-WRFNAM/UA-WRFGFS) were consistent in developing the
bulk of precip mainly east of a Tucson to Nogales line. Subtle
differences were in timing, with the HRRR initiating convection late
this morning, while the UA-WRFNAM/UA-WRFGFS hold off until later
this afternoon into this evening. With the clearing occurring across
eastern zones (including Cochise County), am tending to lean toward
an earlier start. All in all, the current forecast is handling the
current trends well, and no updates are needed. Please see the
additional sections for further details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will develop late this morning
mainly east-to-south of KTUS, and continue into this evening.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur late tonight into early Saturday
morning, again mainly east-to-south of KTUS. Otherwise, cloud decks
will generally range from 10k-15k ft AGL. Sfc wind this afternoon
will be wly/nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts.
Surface wind will be variable in direction at less than 10 kts at
other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur across southeast Arizona through next Thursday. The best
chance of wetting rains during much of the period will be east-to-
south of Tucson. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will
generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent with fair to
good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds through Sunday as well as
next Wednesday and Thursday will generally be terrain driven at less
than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Monday and Tuesday will generally be from
the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest speeds
Monday and Tuesday should prevail from shortly after sunrise into
the early afternoon hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor satellite imagery and upper
level observations depict mid/upper level high pressure centers over
north/central Texas and near 30N/120W with Arizona in weak troughing
between these two highs. Remnant convection across Sonora is
weakening this morning but with broad mid to upper level southerly
flow, skies are partly to mostly cloudy at this time from Sells
eastward. These clouds are expected to gradually diminish as the
morning progresses although they could persist a bit longer
especially over Cochise County. Meanwhile, the greatest moisture and
instability is expected to be along the international border this
afternoon and have focused the higher pops along these areas in
Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. We`ll just need to keep an eye on
the lingering clouds perhaps persisting longer than anticipated and
keeping instability down, especially in Cochise County. With the
bulk of the moisture above 600 mb and high dewpoint depressions, any
convection may produce gusty outflow winds.
Thereafter, a complex of storms may form tonight across Sonora and
push outflow northward into southeast Arizona with perhaps a bit of
increased low level moisture. In addition, a weak mid level
disturbance will perhaps aid in convective initiation with shower
and thunderstorms coverage in areas a bit farther northward on
Saturday though still favoring areas from Tucson eastward and
southward. Gusty outflow winds and perhaps localized blowing dust
might be an issue but due to low confidence have left out of the
forecast.
Looking out from Sunday and into next week, the mid to upper level
high is expected to setup in a favorable position near the four
corners through about Wednesday with some differences beyond. Expect
perhaps an uptick in storm coverage in the Tuesday/Wednesday time
frame as southeast Arizona is on the northern periphery of an
inverted trough. Bottom line is a general ramp up in coverage
through the weekend which will persist next week. It will then just
become more of the typical diurnal difficulties of determining which
days are the more active ones. Temperatures will generally remain
near normal though the forecast period.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
French
Prev Discussion...GL/Francis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend, with a few showers east of Flagstaff. Moisture will
return by early next week as a more monsoonal type of circulation
develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity
and more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow in response to a trough moving
through the northern states will continue to gradually push
eastward today and tonight. Any shower and thunderstorm activity
will be confined to eastern Arizona, primarily Apache County. The
moisture plume will remain mostly east of Arizona through the
weekend with the exception of the White Mountains and far eastern
Arizona which will carry a chance for thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than average in
most locations.
Models are in good agreement with high pressure establishing over
the four corners area by Sunday afternoon with an easterly flow
developing over Arizona. This will bring a healthy increase in
moisture resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms. The
weather next week will be more typical of monsoon season with
daily rainfall chances and closer to average temperatures. With
the general position of the high pressure not moving much through
the week, it`s likely this monsoonal circulation will continue
through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA G30-40kts
CIGS BKN040 east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 03Z...and again 18Z-
00Z Sat. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will continue to move in from the
west over the next several days. This will limit shower and
thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county through
Sunday. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty
winds.
Monday through Wednesday...Additional moisture begins to move in
from the south and southeast with chances for showers and
thunderstorms expanding westward.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend, with a few showers east of Flagstaff. Moisture will
return by early next week as a more monsoonal type of circulation
develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity
and more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow in response to a trough moving
through the northern states will continue to gradually push
eastward today and tonight. Any shower and thunderstorm activity
will be confined to eastern Arizona, primarily Apache County. The
moisture plume will remain mostly east of Arizona through the
weekend with the exception of the White Mountains and far eastern
Arizona which will carry a chance for thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than average in
most locations.
Models are in good agreement with high pressure establishing over
the four corners area by Sunday afternoon with an easterly flow
developing over Arizona. This will bring a healthy increase in
moisture resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms. The
weather next week will be more typical of monsoon season with
daily rainfall chances and closer to average temperatures. With
the general position of the high pressure not moving much through
the week, it`s likely this monsoonal circulation will continue
through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA G30-40kts
CIGS BKN040 east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 03Z...and again 18Z-
00Z Sat. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will continue to move in from the
west over the next several days. This will limit shower and
thunderstorm coverage to the higher terrain in Apache county
through Saturday. These high based thunderstorms may produce
erratic gusty winds.
Monday through Wednesday...Additional moisture begins to move in
from the south and southeast with chances for showers and
thunderstorms expanding westward.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
254 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at
least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture
will seep into portions of Arizona later this week and into next
week leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall
will initially be limited to high terrain areas, then finally move
towards lower desert communities as we move into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Monday...
Water vapor imagery indicates a vort max now over central AZ but
getting sheared out. It hasn`t been enough to produce much in the way
of convection. A larger short wave with an axis over southern CA is
moving in from the west. It is part of a much larger trough centered
over the Pacific northwest. Meanwhile and broad region of high
pressure is centered over the south-central CONUS but there is a
large inverted trough centered south of the Big Bend. Thus, flow
aloft with a westerly component is encountering flow aloft with an
easterly component over Arizona. Thus there is also a moisture
gradient over Arizona with decreasing values from east to west.
Isolated storms are now beginning to develop in southeast AZ where
destabilization from surface heating is getting underway. Anticipate
additional development there where CAPE is best. But with
southwesterly steering flow, storms will tend to move away from the
lower deserts of south-central AZ (including Phoenix). Outflow winds
are a possibility though. However, CAPE not looking good for those
lower deserts and thus outflows will struggle to produce new storms. Hi-
res models reflect this as well and keep deep convection pretty much
outside of our forecast area. But with a disturbance in the mix, and
proximity to southeast AZ, kept slight chance PoPs over portions of
Gila and Pinal counties for late this afternoon and evening.
Over the weekend, steering flow takes on an easterly component as
anticyclonic flow slowly builds over the the 4 corners. Deep moisture
doesn`t flood in but that is a better direction (climatologically) for
storms on the south-central AZ deserts. Thus PoPs subtly increase
from east to west. There are also indications of at least one
perturbation in the mix ahead of the large inverted trough which
stalls out near the Big Bend. Not much change in temps, though if
skies are clear and dew points decline, then highs will be a bit
warmer than forecast.
By Monday afternoon, the upper high is forecast to build to a 597dm
center located over far north central AZ near the Utah border. with
500mb heights in excess of 595dm over the central deserts, it will
turn even hotter, but the potential heat will be balanced by a
continued moisture feed from the east with pwat values climbing to
1.4 inches near the greater Phoenix area, and values over 1 inch
into southeast CA. Central desert surface dewpoints will rise into
the 50s and cloud cover will also increase from the east. As such
high temperatures will climb a degree or two with hottest western
deserts staying under 115, and most central deserts at or below 111.
With the increase in moisture and instability comes an increase in
CAPE and by Monday afternoon/evening we may see values in excess of
500 j/kg east of Phoenix. As such POPs have climbed a bit with
slight chances added to much of the south central deserts including
the greater Phoenix area, and POPs above 20 percent over southern
Gila County.
Tuesday through Thursday...Model guidance including NAEFS and GEFS
ensemble guidance is suggesting that our flow pattern is setting up
in a standard monsoonal fashion, with the upper high migrating
towards the vicinity of the four corners, and a much deeper and
widespread southeast steering flow working its way over the AZ
deserts and even into southeast CA. Moisture continues to work
across the lower deserts and rainfall chances will increase with
slight chances developing to the lower Colorado River valley and
potentially into the deserts of southeast CA. We have raised POPs
over much of the CWA correspondingly, with chance numbers over the
higher terrain of southern Gila County and slight chances over much
of the southcentral deserts westward. High temperatures take a slow
decline day to day as humidity values rise.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Gusty erratic winds and blowing dust from distant SE AZ storms will
be possible this afternoon/ early evening , with a wind shift to the
south/southeast behind any outflows that make their way to Phoenix
terminals (after 23Z). However, low confidence in exact timing and
location precludes mention in 18Z TAF at this time. Outside of
potential storm outflows, winds will be out of the west with a few
gusts up to 20 kts before shifting to the east tomorrow morning. In
addition, skies will remain mostly clear with a few clouds aoa
10kft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to
remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as
high as 15 kts and a few gusts up to 20 kts possible during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends with speeds around 10 to 15 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday...
Temperatures will start a gradual "cooling" trend, with highs on
Monday around 110-115F dropping into the 100-110F range by Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening,
primarily over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix on
Monday, and then over much of the desert southwest Tuesday through
Friday.
On Monday, given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels
with minimum humidities generally between 10 and 20 percent, there
will be very little if any measurable rain. Mostly gusty erratic
winds and dry lightning will accompany storms potentially igniting
new fires or promoting the spread of existing fires.
Better chances for wetting rains is expected from Tuesday into
Friday as monsoon moisture levels increase over the region, with the
highest chances for rainfall still remaining over the higher terrain
of south-central AZ. Also accompanying the storms will be gusty
erratic winds and lightning. Minimum humidities during the Tuesday
through Friday period will rise into the 15-25 percent range, with
fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
254 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through at
least the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture
will seep into portions of Arizona later this week and into next
week leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall
will initially be limited to high terrain areas, then finally move
towards lower desert communities as we move into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Monday...
Water vapor imagery indicates a vort max now over central AZ but
getting sheared out. It hasn`t been enough to produce much in the way
of convection. A larger short wave with an axis over southern CA is
moving in from the west. It is part of a much larger trough centered
over the Pacific northwest. Meanwhile and broad region of high
pressure is centered over the south-central CONUS but there is a
large inverted trough centered south of the Big Bend. Thus, flow
aloft with a westerly component is encountering flow aloft with an
easterly component over Arizona. Thus there is also a moisture
gradient over Arizona with decreasing values from east to west.
Isolated storms are now beginning to develop in southeast AZ where
destabilization from surface heating is getting underway. Anticipate
additional development there where CAPE is best. But with
southwesterly steering flow, storms will tend to move away from the
lower deserts of south-central AZ (including Phoenix). Outflow winds
are a possibility though. However, CAPE not looking good for those
lower deserts and thus outflows will struggle to produce new storms. Hi-
res models reflect this as well and keep deep convection pretty much
outside of our forecast area. But with a disturbance in the mix, and
proximity to southeast AZ, kept slight chance PoPs over portions of
Gila and Pinal counties for late this afternoon and evening.
Over the weekend, steering flow takes on an easterly component as
anticyclonic flow slowly builds over the the 4 corners. Deep moisture
doesn`t flood in but that is a better direction (climatologically) for
storms on the south-central AZ deserts. Thus PoPs subtly increase
from east to west. There are also indications of at least one
perturbation in the mix ahead of the large inverted trough which
stalls out near the Big Bend. Not much change in temps, though if
skies are clear and dew points decline, then highs will be a bit
warmer than forecast.
By Monday afternoon, the upper high is forecast to build to a 597dm
center located over far north central AZ near the Utah border. with
500mb heights in excess of 595dm over the central deserts, it will
turn even hotter, but the potential heat will be balanced by a
continued moisture feed from the east with pwat values climbing to
1.4 inches near the greater Phoenix area, and values over 1 inch
into southeast CA. Central desert surface dewpoints will rise into
the 50s and cloud cover will also increase from the east. As such
high temperatures will climb a degree or two with hottest western
deserts staying under 115, and most central deserts at or below 111.
With the increase in moisture and instability comes an increase in
CAPE and by Monday afternoon/evening we may see values in excess of
500 j/kg east of Phoenix. As such POPs have climbed a bit with
slight chances added to much of the south central deserts including
the greater Phoenix area, and POPs above 20 percent over southern
Gila County.
Tuesday through Thursday...Model guidance including NAEFS and GEFS
ensemble guidance is suggesting that our flow pattern is setting up
in a standard monsoonal fashion, with the upper high migrating
towards the vicinity of the four corners, and a much deeper and
widespread southeast steering flow working its way over the AZ
deserts and even into southeast CA. Moisture continues to work
across the lower deserts and rainfall chances will increase with
slight chances developing to the lower Colorado River valley and
potentially into the deserts of southeast CA. We have raised POPs
over much of the CWA correspondingly, with chance numbers over the
higher terrain of southern Gila County and slight chances over much
of the southcentral deserts westward. High temperatures take a slow
decline day to day as humidity values rise.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Gusty erratic winds and blowing dust from distant SE AZ storms will
be possible this afternoon/ early evening , with a wind shift to the
south/southeast behind any outflows that make their way to Phoenix
terminals (after 23Z). However, low confidence in exact timing and
location precludes mention in 18Z TAF at this time. Outside of
potential storm outflows, winds will be out of the west with a few
gusts up to 20 kts before shifting to the east tomorrow morning. In
addition, skies will remain mostly clear with a few clouds aoa
10kft.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to
remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as
high as 15 kts and a few gusts up to 20 kts possible during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends with speeds around 10 to 15 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday...
Temperatures will start a gradual "cooling" trend, with highs on
Monday around 110-115F dropping into the 100-110F range by Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening,
primarily over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix on
Monday, and then over much of the desert southwest Tuesday through
Friday.
On Monday, given that conditions will remain dry in the lower levels
with minimum humidities generally between 10 and 20 percent, there
will be very little if any measurable rain. Mostly gusty erratic
winds and dry lightning will accompany storms potentially igniting
new fires or promoting the spread of existing fires.
Better chances for wetting rains is expected from Tuesday into
Friday as monsoon moisture levels increase over the region, with the
highest chances for rainfall still remaining over the higher terrain
of south-central AZ. Also accompanying the storms will be gusty
erratic winds and lightning. Minimum humidities during the Tuesday
through Friday period will rise into the 15-25 percent range, with
fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will be around through the weekend into
next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high temperatures will
run near normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were confined to
areas mainly east of a Tucson to Nogales line this afternoon. Alert
gages indicate rainfall amounts have generally remained less than a
third of an inch. Both the HRRR and the 24/12z UA-WRFNAM seem to be
handling this convection well. In addition, the last several runs of
the HRRR have depicted an outflow boundary originating from near
Tucson propagating northwest toward the Phoenix area between 24/23z
and 25/02z. As such, have included a mention of patchy blowing dust
in the forecast for a few hours this evening for portions of Pinal
County near I-10. At this point...expect convection to continue
across eastern zones into the evening and begin to diminish sometime
around or just after sunset.
Otherwise...the synoptic scale pattern was defined by longwave
ridging over much of the CONUS with low pressure moving into
northwestern Montana, as well as another disturbance pushing
northwestward along the Mexico/Texas border. Over the next several
days, it looks as though this Mexican low will stall before slowly
starting to move eastward through Texas, rather than move in our
direction. This will allow high pressure take hold of the desert
southwest early next week, with the center of high pressure setting
up near the favorable four corners region (for daily convection) by
Tuesday/Wednesday. Thereafter, high pressure seems to wobble around
the southwestern states a little bit, but overall remain in a good
position to ensure daily chances for monsoon activity. Showers and
storms this weekend will do well to moisten up the lower levels of
the atmosphere, so we will probably be looking at better coverage of
measurable precip and some higher QPF`s by the middle to end of
next week.
Bottom line is a general ramp up in shower and storm coverage
through the weekend which will persist into next week. The forecast
challenge will then shift to determining which days will be "up" or
"down" in terms of coverage and storm severity. Temperatures will
generally remain near normal though the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
Isold to sctd -TSRA/-SHRA thru 25/03z mainly E and S of KTUS. Sctd
debris cloud cover overnight with slgt chc of -SHRA. Isold -TSRA
dvlpg Sat after 25/19z mainly E and S of KTUS. Sfc wind until this
evening W-NW at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts. Sfc wind will be
vrbl in direction at less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur across southeast Arizona through next Thursday. The best
chance of wetting rains during much of the period will be east-to-
south of Tucson. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will
generally range from the mid teens to around 30 percent with fair to
good nighttime recovery. 20-foot winds through Sunday as well as
next Wednesday and Thursday will generally be terrain driven at less
than 15 mph. 20-foot winds Monday and Tuesday will generally be from
the east at 5-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest speeds
Monday and Tuesday should prevail from shortly after sunrise into
the early afternoon hours.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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Discussion...French
Aviation/Fire Weather...Glueck