Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/23/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
Thunderstorms have redeveloped from central Nebraska southeast into
northwest Missouri in a region of deep moisture convergence.
Southwesterly low level jet will continue to focus convection near
or to the northeast of the forecast area through mid morning. Short
term high resolution models support keeping precipitation to the
northeast or affecting far northeast Kansas. Have kept precipitation
chances across the far northeast through mid morning. Frontal
boundary across the forecast area is expected to lift to the
northeast this morning as a warm front and by 00Z should extend from
low pressure in northwest Nebraska southeast across northwest
Missouri. With a return of southerly flow and increasing low level
jet from the southwest this evening, isentropic lift over the
frontal boundary should focus additional storm development mainly
across Iowa tonight. Another day of very warm to hot temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid and upper 90s with mixing down
from 825 mb this afternoon. Dew points will be a couple of degrees
lower today which will keep the heat indices in the 97 to 103 degree
range. Temperatures tonight will be mild as boundary layer remains
mixed with a southerly wind through the night. Expect lows in the
mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
By Wednesday, a broad mid-level ridge will be stretched across the
central and southern CONUS. Models show a shortwave trough tracking
eastward across North Dakota into Minnesota through the day, which
should help to push a cold front into north central Kansas by late
morning or early afternoon. This front should slowly shift to the
south-southeast, however much of the forecast area should remain in
the warm sector throughout the day with breezy southerly winds from
the pressure gradient helping to support decent warm-air advection.
As a result, expect the hottest temperatures of the week to occur on
Wednesday with highs reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s. With
dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, heat index values may
soar into the 101 to 107 degree range during the afternoon. Despite
having this boundary in place Wednesday afternoon with decent mid-
level instability, model soundings show a strong enough cap in place
that it should inhibit any thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. The GFS/GEM show the potential for enough lift to be
present near this lingering boundary to produce some elevated storms
Wednesday night. However, the ECMWF/NAM remain with a dry forecast
so have only slight chance PoPs in due to this model discrepancy.
With this boundary lingering across portions of central and east
central Kansas, could see some scattered storms develop through the
day on Thursday and Friday. With decent instability in place and
marginal 0-6km bulk shear values of around 25kts on Thursday, cannot
rule out the potential for a few strong storms to develop with hail
being the primary threat.
Slight model discrepancies start becoming more noticeable by the
weekend, with these discrepancies causing some uncertainty in the
timing and location of precipitation chances. Models show a mid-
level trough moving eastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday
and advancing across the Northern Plains on Sunday. This advancing
trough will help to push another cold front into the region late
Saturday night through Sunday, bringing additional chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Dependent upon where this
boundary ends up tracking by Monday, some lingering scattered storms
may be possible into Monday. As a result, have slight to chance
PoPs across portions of the CWA this weekend into early next week.
As for temperatures, expect relatively consistent conditions late
week through the weekend with high temperatures in the 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Additional TS development for the 06Z TAF period expected to
remain NNE of terminals. LLWS with LLJ tonight near the 09-13Z
time frame too small to mention as well. VFR forecast continued.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016
An upper level trough/low, located just off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest at 00z Tuesday, will move east and approach the
Northern Rockies late today as a trough of low pressure deepens
across the lee of the Rockies. A surface boundary extending from
west to east across northern Kansas earlier this morning will lift
north as a warm front during the day. The net 24 hour change of
the 850mb temperatures from the NAM will warm 2C to 4C. The NAM
also warms the 700mb temperatures +4C to +6C while the GFS was a
little cooler with this warming trend. The 24 hour temperature
change from the GFS was only +3 to +4. Based on these temperatures
and the model soundings mixing depth forecast by late day the
highs today in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees still looks on
track with the warmer temperatures being across west central and
north central Kansas. Precipitation chances should be focused near
the surface lee trough...should something develop.
As an upper level trough crosses the northern Plains tonight the
surface lee trough will move into far western Kansas and a cold
front will drop south towards northwest Kansas. Over southwest
Kansas tonight the winds are expected to be stronger than the past
few nights so will favor the warmer guidance for lows tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016
On Wednesday the cold front will move into southwest Kansas by
the early afternoon. This surface boundary will move under some
warm mid level temperatures. The NAM has 700mb temperatures over
this cold front at 15C to around 18C while the GFS indicated 700mb
temperatures a few degrees cooler. Convection along this boundary
may be difficult given these warm temperatures. Despite these warm
temperatures will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms along
this boundary in far southwestern Kansas given the steep low level
lapse rates and upslope flow developing in eastern Colorado ahead
of an approaching upper level trough. As the upper level trough
crosses southwest Kansas Wednesday night any surface based
convection will end as it tries to spread into western Kansas.
Some elevated convection can not be ruled out ahead of this wave
as 850mb warm air advection improves by early Thursday morning.
This surface boundary will slowly lift northeast through rest of
the work week but exactly how quickly is somewhat unclear given
the the latest GFS and ECMWF. Based where the models place this
surface boundary along with warm air advection north of this front
and an upper wave crossing the plains Thursday night will continue
to favor small chances for convection. Trends from the model
suggest northern Kansas will have the better opportunity.
A better opportunity for convection may occur over the weekend
period given the timing of the next, more significant, upper level
trough crossing western Kansas. As this next upper level trough
crosses the Central Plains Saturday night into early Sunday a
surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Southeast winds at around 10 knots will gradually veer to the
south southwest by 12z Tuesday. These southerly winds will then
increase to near 20 knots by late morning as surface pressures
begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. RAP ,NMM, ARW and
model soundings all indicating VFR conditions through Tuesday
evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 71 99 70 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 98 69 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 96 70 99 68 / 0 0 20 20
LBL 96 71 101 70 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 98 70 95 69 / 0 0 10 10
P28 97 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Additional TS development for the 06Z TAF period expected to
remain NNE of terminals. LLWS with LLJ tonight near the 09-13Z
time frame too small to mention as well. VFR forecast continued.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain
regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next
week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher.
Temperatures will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with
a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County.
For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and
thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no
updates are anticipated this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to
retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west
coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow
causing convective activity to diminish across the state through
Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few
showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of
the Mogollon Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge
will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting
up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation
will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico.
Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air
will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower
elevations next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow
aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related
movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did
develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted
waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in
Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for
southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south-
central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow-
off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With
shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning
has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which
it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps
and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave
heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner
westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph
possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current
satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to
current trends.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers
over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is
an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over
the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered
near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the
latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also
lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus,
Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area).
For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the
weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in
moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight
chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps
nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for
Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall,
temps remain above normal.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited
convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across
northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back
into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few
degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still
holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and
portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right
trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow
afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as
deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z
analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas
and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the
forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below
for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of
precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the
higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than
today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
730 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.UPDATE...Just ran out a quick update to increase cloud cover to
mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy this morning. Kept sprinkles in
the forecast this morning, although could see some measurable rain
near the International border as an area of showers just south of
the border pushes north. Didn`t touch the high temperatures but will
evaluate. Another update likely later this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
520 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal
circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Light westerly flow aloft will keep most moisture to
the west and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to
our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns
and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially
over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible. SFC winds
light til 17z then btwn 17z-02z Fri, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain
regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next
week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher.
Temperatures will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with
a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County.
For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and
thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no
updates are anticipated this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to
retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west
coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow
causing convective activity to diminish across the state through
Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few
showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of
the Mogollon Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge
will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting
up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation
will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico.
Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air
will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower
elevations next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow
aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related
movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did
develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted
waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in
Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for
southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south-
central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow-
off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With
shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning
has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which
it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps
and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave
heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner
westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph
possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current
satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to
current trends.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers
over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is
an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over
the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered
near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the
latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also
lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus,
Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area).
For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the
weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in
moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight
chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps
nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for
Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall,
temps remain above normal.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited
convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across
northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back
into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few
degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still
holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and
portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right
trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow
afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as
deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z
analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas
and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the
forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below
for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of
precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the
higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than
today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will be around through the weekend into
early next week for daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Tucson. Daytime high
temperatures will run a few degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...If you think about it, after such an extremely hot
and record setting start to the week, today has been rather pleasant
thanks to the extensive cloud cover and areas of virga or sprinkles
or light showers. Check out the climate section for a Tucson
climatic tidbit. Western Pima county has had plenty of sun and the
highs likely will top out in the 105 to 110 range. The activity
today possibly associated with the combination of a weakening upper
level low that was off the Baja coast yesterday and has weakened as
it moved NE toward northern Baja and a weak disturbance aloft that
moved in from Sonora. For tonight, except for western Pima county,
will maintain isolated sprinkles/light showers into the evening
hours. Expect partly cloudy conditions overnight as debris clouds
from storms along the Sonora/Chihuahua state line spread north under
the southerly flow aloft.
Friday...models suggesting that there will be a residual upper level
feature around that may help focus storm development with best
chance for storms south and east of Tucson. Increased PoPs for these
areas. Highs will obviously be warmer for areas that were under
extensive cloud cover today.
Saturday...Areal coverage of storms expands west under E-SE flow
aloft. Highs will run several degrees above normal.
Sunday into early next week...A little more active as the upper high
settles in around the 4-corners area providing a deeper E-SE flow
aloft. May eventually see an inverted trof pass by to our south, but
timing of such a feature at this time is difficult. Just for
reference there is a nice one that moved inland over eastern Mexico
from the Gulf of Mexico. Will keep daily highs several degrees above
normal with the prospects that any day could end up cooler due to
area being gunked over with debris clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
An area of layered SCT-BKN clouds around 8-15k ft AGL with embedded
virga/-SHRA will gradually push northward into this evening. SFC
wind generally WLY/NWLY around 10-15 kts this afternoon with a few
higher gusts, lessening after sunset. Expect terrain-driven winds
overnight into Friday at less than 10 kts. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA are
expected again Friday afternoon mainly near terrain E of KTUS to the
NM border, with NWLY SFC winds around 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. Expect isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week, especially
over the higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow
winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction with the
peak daytime heating. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15 to 20
percent will occur each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...Here is another climate tidbit. As 3 pm, the high
temperature at the airport has been 93 degrees. This would be the
6th coolest high temperature for June 23rd on record and the coolest
since 89 degrees in 2000. Additionally the low temperature thus far
today has been 82 degrees. This would, if it holds through midnight,
be the warmest June 23rd low temperature on record. Current record
is 80 degrees from 1936 and 2015.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to daily shower and
thunderstorm activity and more typical late June temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A west to southwest flow aloft will be over Arizona
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will
keep the moisture pushed further east into New Mexico with
generally drier conditions for northern Arizona. The exception
will be eastern Arizona and particularly the White Mountains which
will see enough moisture to continue the chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Gusty winds and light to moderate
rainfall can be expected with storms through the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to run above average for late June
through the weekend.
By Sunday, subtropical high pressure builds into the four corners
region allowing an easterly flow to develop and open the door for
moisture to return to the state. This is a much more typical
monsoonal circulation that develops and looks to persist over the
area through much of next week. Have increased precipitation
chances for next week and kept temperatures cooler and closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains through 02z, with erratic gusty outflow winds possible
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will continue to move in from the west
over the next several days. The coverage for showers and
thunderstorms will be limited to the White Mountains region each
day. These high based thunderstorms may produce erratic gusty winds.
Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions lasting through Sunday.
Additional moisture moves in with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning from Monday onward.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
239 PM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An MCV was centered between Tucson and Nogales early this afternoon
and was producing spotty showers. Cloud cover has kept lower levels
from destabilizing over southeast AZ. Hi-res models have been
keeping convection out of our area for today/tonight. However, as the
MCV drifts northward, there will be a slight chance of a weak
convective shower over our easternmost areas. For Friday, a short
wave on the southern periphery of the large trough affecting the
northwest CONUS and Great Basin is advertised to move across the
forecast area and advect some moisture and CAPE into southern AZ.
However, it`s mainly just affecting southeast AZ...but enough to
mention slight chance of storms for our higher terrain areas. For
Saturday, we may have another similar situation. The GFS actually
depicts an inverted trough as an extension of an upper low off Baja.
Like Friday though, the moist advection looks to be limited due to
dry air from the west. Temps will be slightly cooler Friday and again
Saturday thus we don`t have any Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. On
Sunday, an anticyclone becomes centered near the 4 corners and temps
nudge up a bit - flirting with Heat Warning criteria. Will hold off
for now on a Watch - especially in light of the X-factors associated
with convection (clouds, dew points, etc.).
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Left-over debris cloudiness from thunderstorms over northern Mexico
and extreme southeastern AZ will continue to keep mid-high level sct-
bkn cloud layers over the PHX area terminals through this evening.
then slowly clear later tonight and Friday. Westerly breezes, with
gusts as high as 20 kts to continue into this evening, then become
easterly later tonight, a little later than usual. Westerly breezes
will then return on Friday afternoon, with wind speeds similar to
what we are seeing today.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Mainly clear skies to prevail through the taf period. Winds to
remain mainly out of the south at KBLH, with sustained speeds as
high as 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts possible during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Winds at KIPL to mainly follow
typical diurnal trends.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Strong high pressure over the desert southwest to bring another
period of well-above normal temperatures to the region on Sunday and
Monday, with lower desert highs rising into the 110-115 degree range
each day. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible each
afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing
fires. Somewhat cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting
rains is expected from Tuesday into next Thursday as increasing
southeasterly flow aloft begins to increase monsoon moisture levels
over the region, with the best chances for rainfall being over the
higher terrain of south-central AZ. Minimum humidities during the
Tue-Thu period to rise into the 15-25 percent range, with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more
monsoonal circulation develops, leading to increased shower and
thunderstorm activity.
&&
.UPDATE...Drier air has spread into western Arizona today which
will limit shower/thunderstorm activity to far eastern Arizona.
Any showers/storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds.
Elsewhere dry and warm weather continues. No major forecast
updates this morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /520 AM MST/...Light west to southwesterly flow
aloft will keep most moisture to the east and south of our area.
Some circulation around the high to our east will keep a slight
chance going mainly over the White Mtns and portions of the
eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and
White Mtns btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible
near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/Peterson
AVIATION...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast a little over an hour ago to
increase cloud cover to mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy for the
remainder of the morning hours. Radar showed isolated areas of
mainly virga/sprinkles from Tucson east and south. Haven`t seen any
gauges yet to pick up anything measurable. However the area of
slightly stronger showers south of Santa Cruz county likely
producing measurable rainfall. This area of showers was pushing to
the north. Precipitable water values are up slightly versus 24 hours
ago with various sources showing values generally in the 1.0" to
1.2" range with higher values SW of Tucson per blended imagery.
Again most of this is above 600 mb. At the surface, dewpoint values
were in the 40s to lower 50s. Water vapor imagery this morning
showed that the upper low that was west of the Baja Spur yesterday,
and which some models yesterday wanted to move to the south today,
has lifted NE toward northern Baja. This feature bringing the upper
dynamics to produce the virga/sprinkles/light showers across
portions of SE AZ and northern Sonora MX.
The cloud cover will gradually erode as the day progresses with
partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. Still will see isolated
areas of virga/sprinkles/light showers into the afternoon hours.
Can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two in areas that will have more
sunshine. The highs today may also be a touch too warm. Will
continue to watch trends over the next several hours before running
out another forecast update.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL will gradually decrease in
coverage through the afternoon. Isolated -SHRA thru this evening.
SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher
gusts, lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds
during the morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
854 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds from Sonora convection spreading over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning. There appears to be an MCV (also
from that same convection) moving northward into southeast AZ. This
will keep very weak showers/sprinkles going over SE AZ this morning
with some of those echoes drifting over our area (near and east of
Phoenix). Latest hi-res models depict only low intensity convection
for today and limit it to southeast AZ. This makes sense since the
moisture is primarily limited to the mid levels with drier air over
northern and western portions of the state per 12Z soundings. While
surface dew points at IPL and YUM have gone up this morning, this
looks to be rather shallow and will mix out quickly. With clouds in
the mix, Phoenix area max temp today may need to be nudged down. But
thicker cloudiness will be to the east and we got off to a warm
start. So, will not drop the EHW just yet. More later.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 249 am MST/PDT...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
730 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.UPDATE...Just ran out a quick update to increase cloud cover to
mostly cloudy versus partly cloudy this morning. Kept sprinkles in
the forecast this morning, although could see some measurable rain
near the International border as an area of showers just south of
the border pushes north. Didn`t touch the high temperatures but will
evaluate. Another update likely later this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
520 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions heading into the
weekend. Moisture will return by early next week as a more monsoonal
circulation develops, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Light westerly flow aloft will keep most moisture to
the west and south of our area. Some circulation around the high to
our east will keep a slight chance going mainly over the White Mtns
and portions of the eastern Rim through the weekend.
By next week, the high will push back westward and amplify. This
will lead to a more favorable circulation. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase as a result.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, especially
over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. Smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact visibility at
times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns
btwn 17z-02z, with strong gusty outflow winds possible. SFC winds
light til 17z then btwn 17z-02z Fri, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft is moving into western Arizona
today. This will limit the slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through
Friday. Erratic and gusty winds are likely with any showers or
storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with otherwise dry
conditions through Sunday. Mid level moisture could start to spread
northwestward by Monday, expanding the threat of high based
convection.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
357 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Thunderstorms will mainly be relegated to southeastern Arizona today
and well outside of the Phoenix vicinity. Otherwise, diurnal wind
patterns are expected with some afternoon westerly breezes
occasionally reaching 20 kt.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will generally retain a southerly component through at least
Friday morning. At KBLH, occasionally gusts may reach 20 kt this
afternoon. At KIPL, southeasterly winds less than 10 kt will
generally prevail, except for a period of downslope westerly winds
this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure across the southern states will gradually become re-
established across the desert southwest through early next week. In
addition to the above normal temperatures, the monsoon high will also
bring an increase in moisture and perhaps increased chances for thunderstorm
activity as well. Given that conditions will remain dry in the lower
levels with min RHs generally between 10 and 20 percent, the
thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and lightning strikes,
which could ignite new fires or promote the spread of existing fires.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will maintain above normal temperatures through
the first half of next week. A gradual increase in moisture is likely
to affect portions of Arizona leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms initially to high terrain areas and then finally to the
lower deserts starting Sunday or Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions will continue at least through the weekend, but some
modest relief may be on the way as monsoon moisture looks to increase
starting early next week. Current southerly flow aloft will last
through tonight while moisture levels remain marginal. Any storms
that do develop this afternoon over the high terrain should mostly
stay out of our CWA. High temperatures over the next couple days
should drop a degree or so each day and the Excessive Heat Warning
over the Phoenix metro through this evening will likely be allowed to
expire.
A very weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through central
Arizona early Friday and then become nearly stationary over east-
central Arizona later in the day before dissipating. This little
feature will likely be enough to bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to mainly our Gila County area, but PoPs are still less
than 25% as moisture remains fairly marginal.
Subtle shifting of the upper level pattern this weekend will allow
for easterly flow to develop by later Saturday and there are
indications a weak inverted trough could brush by to our south. Still
looks like Saturday should mainly be a dry day as moisture levels
remain insufficient for much monsoon activity. However, by Sunday
afternoon increasing moisture should be enough to bring a few showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain and maybe some outflow
potential over the south-central Arizona deserts. Heights aloft get a
boost starting Sunday and highs again will be nearing Excessive Heat
levels. These temperatures will likely persist into Monday before
higher moisture levels bring down temperatures for the middle of next
week. Will hold off on any Excessive Heat headlines as this looks to
be a marginal event. There is enough uncertainty with moisture
levels and cloud cover which could end up keeping temperatures
slightly lower than currently forecast.
Monsoon thunderstorm season looks to pick up starting next week if
forecast moisture levels hold true. The easterly flow looks to
persist through much of the week as the high center shifts over the
Four Corners area. Seems very plausible we will see moisture levels
increase sufficiently at least by next Tuesday to see a threat for
thunderstorms over the Arizona lower deserts. PoPs for now are still
mainly in the slight chance category, but will likely need to be
adjusted upward over the coming days. The challenge will be picking
the subtle inverted troughs out of the flow to see which days will be
more active next week. Winds aloft should be fairly weak with a
steering flow of only 5-15 kts, but moisture levels won`t be high
enough for any widespread heavy rainfall producing storms.
Atmospheric moisture profiles show a likely dry sub-cloud layer so we
should see potential for strong gusty winds with any storm activity
along with some dust storm potential. Temperatures by the middle of
next week should drop below 110F over the Arizona deserts in response
to the increased moisture and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 AM MST THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture will linger across the area to support
a few showers and thunderstorms the next few days. The best chance
of rainfall will be east and south of Tucson. GEFS showed an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week as the
upper high becomes centered over the four corners region. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
Layered SCT-BKN clouds around 10-20k ft AGL mainly south and east
KTUS will gradually decrease in coverage through the early morning
hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA expected during the afternoon/evening
today, mainly near terrain from KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border.
Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany convection. SFC wind
WLY/NWLY around 10-20 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts,
lessening after sunset. Otherwise, terrain-driven winds during the
morning and overnight hours 12 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
will continue into early next week. There will be enough moisture
for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle
of next week, especially over the higher terrain east/southeast of
Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph may accompany any convection
which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be breezy at times
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in conjunction
with the peak daytime heating. Daytime relative humidity will hover
near 15 percent each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain
regions. More favorable moisture conditions will return early next
week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher.
Temperatures will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening, with
a few lingering showers remaining across central Apache County.
For Thursday, drier air aloft is forecast to keep showers and
thunderstorms largely confined to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. The current forecast captures these trends well and no
updates are anticipated this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...The subtropical ridge continues to
retreat eastward and a short wave trough moves onto the west
coast. This pattern change places Arizona in dry westerly flow
causing convective activity to diminish across the state through
Sunday. However there will be enough lingering moisture for a few
showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of
the Mogollon Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical ridge
will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center setting
up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge orientation
will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona from Mexico.
Expect low chances for high based showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon mainly over mountain areas through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Smoke downwind of area
wildfires may impact visibility at times. On Thursday, drier air
will limit chances for -SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White
Mtns. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
913 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure will maintain above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. The monsoon high will also
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the lower
elevations next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Even more quiet conditions this evening as compared to last as flow
aloft has begun to transition southwesterly keeping storm related
movement and motion well to our east today. As usual, storms did
develop and persist along a few embedded vort maxes and inverted
waves along and east of the southern Rockies in NM, Sierra Madre in
Mexico and even into the OK panhandle. Clear skies will remain for
southwestern AZ and southeast CA this evening while the south-
central AZ deserts will see building mid level cloud fields...blow-
off and debris from early convective activity to our south. With
shortwave troughing heights to our west, the Excessive Heat Warning
has been allowed to expire for all but the Phoenix Metro, of which
it will stay out for one more day due to the warm overnight temps
and associated heat impacts from lack of overnight relief. Shortwave
heights to our west will also allow for enhanced sundowner
westerlies for KIPL and KBLH overnight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph
possible at times. Grid updates this evening were to match current
satellite/sky cover observations and dial in winds a bit closer to
current trends.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Looking at the larger scale, there are about 3 anticyclonic centers
over/near the southwest and south-central CONUS. Meanwhile, there is
an upper low centered just west of the Baja spur and another one over
the southern Gulf of Mexico. A larger low/upper trough is centered
near the coast of B.C. Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the
latter feature will help spread drier air from the west. It will also
lead to weakening of the Baja low and move it northeastward. Thus,
Thursday looks quiet storm-wise (even outside of our forecast area).
For Friday, the GFS develops QPF over our area as it brings the
weakened upper low/short wave across along with an increase in
moisture. Other models are not as aggressive. Thus have only slight
chances going over our higher terrain zone east of Phoenix. Temps
nudge down a bit on Thursday and Heat Warning drops off except for
Phoenix area. Some slight additional cooling Friday. But overall,
temps remain above normal.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to persist later into the overnight hours than what is
typical, but with lighter speeds gnly 6 kts or less. Easterly switch
will occur later for KPHX, closer towards sunrise 23/11z window.
Mid-level clouds AOA 15kft will transition in from the south from
earlier storm activity south of the border. Sfc conditions to stay
dry and clouds will remain into Thursday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak weather system moving in from the west will enhance westerly to
southwesterly winds. Gusts will eventually subside for KIPL but
sustained speeds will remain elevated towards Thursday AM. Skies to
remain mostly clear through the AM with some increasing SCT cloud
coverage from the southeast possible into the AM.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
A strong high pressure system will continue the unseasonably warm
heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
6 to 8 degrees above normal. Some low level moisture will seep into
the region Friday, however due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures, minimum relative humidities will still range from 10 to
20 percent. The moisture could generate some afternoon mountain-top
showers and thunderstorms Friday. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds
or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are expected each day,
particularly mountains. Modest overnight recovery is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/Hirsch
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As expected with marginal conditions, we saw limited
convection across our area this afternoon, with most activity across
northwest Mexico to our south. A nice outflow pushed dew points back
into the 50s in Douglas, otherwise most locations were down a few
degrees compared to yesterday. Precipitable water values still
holding around 1.1 inches with much higher values in Sonora and
portions of Chihuahua. Our current forecast has all the right
trends, with stronger convection closer to border areas tomorrow
afternoon and a better chance of storms Friday and Saturday as
deeper moisture is pushed into the area. A quick look at 00Z
analysis and model output suggests we can start to hit border areas
and focus on the Friday / Saturday period even more, but the
forecast trends are good. Please see the previous discussion below
for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Thursday...not much change in amount of
precipitable water being around so expect isolated storms over the
higher terrain east of Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than
today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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