Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/22/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...22/00z Taf Cycle
VFR conds wl prevail thru the pd. Expect some fog to dvlp arnd the
KADF area toward sunrise Wed morning. Otherwise...CU field wl
again dvlp on Wed. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
The center of the upper level ridge is in place to the west of the
region over the SRN Rockies...and it`s influence has kept most areas
dry across the CWA this afternoon. Generally only afternoon CU has
been seen...but some areas across the extreme NERN CWA have seen a
few weak SHRA pop up recently...as well as some counties across SWRN
AR outside the CWA. These areas will see the best potential for
precip through early this evening...and have only mentioned some
slight chance pops for isolated SHRA/TSRA. Should see most areas
remain dry however due to the ridge aloft.
Not much difference will be seen for Wed regarding precip as the
upper ridge will remain overhead and to the west of the CWA. As a
result...don`t have mention of any precip at this time...even during
the afternoon hrs. One difference compared to today will be
increased SWRLY winds...which should allow temps to warm an extra
deg or two from today`s highs. These increased temps should
correspond with slightly drier air near the SFC due to increased
mixing...so will likely not need a heat adv again for Wed.
The upper ridge will flatten some for Thu...and winds should not be
as strong as expected on Wed. As a result...afternoon humidity
levels will be a bit higher...and temps will also remain in the 90s
for most areas. Will have to pay close attention to the overall
temp/RH trend this day as heat index values may get close to Heat
Adv criteria. There will be a cold front approaching from the north
late Thu afternoon...but this front should remain in MO. Even
so...have mentioned some slight chance pops for the NRN counties as
that front gets closer to the state. Otherwise...just hot and humid
conditions will be the story for the short term period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Very little has changed since yesterday`s discussion, as the upper
level ridge of high pressure will remain in control through the
extended term. High temperatures will continue in the 90`s under the
ridge, and with dewpoints generally in the 70`s, heat index values
each afternoon will top out over 100.
I have low POPs in many areas throughout the extended term,
generally to cover afternoon and early evening convection that may
develop.
Toward the end of the extended term things will begin to change just
a bit, as the ridge axis centers over the desert southwest and a
broad trof develops over the eastern US. On the far eastern edge of
the ridge we could see a bit more convection in the afternoon hours,
and the remnants of any nocturnal MCS`s over the plains could drift
into portions of the CWA during the daytime hours. With those
scenarios in mind I have bumpped up POPs just a bit in the latter
forecast groups.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
The center of the upper level ridge is in place to the west of the
region over the SRN Rockies...and it`s influence has kept most areas
dry across the CWA this afternoon. Generally only afternoon CU has
been seen...but some areas across the extreme NERN CWA have seen a
few weak SHRA pop up recently...as well as some counties across SWRN
AR outside the CWA. These areas will see the best potential for
precip through early this evening...and have only mentioned some
slight chance pops for isolated SHRA/TSRA. Should see most areas
remain dry however due to the ridge aloft.
Not much difference will be seen for Wed regarding precip as the
upper ridge will remain overhead and to the west of the CWA. As a
result...don`t have mention of any precip at this time...even during
the afternoon hrs. One difference compared to today will be
increased SWRLY winds...which should allow temps to warm an extra
deg or two from today`s highs. These increased temps should
correspond with slightly drier air near the SFC due to increased
mixing...so will likely not need a heat adv again for Wed.
The upper ridge will flatten some for Thu...and winds should not be
as strong as expected on Wed. As a result...afternoon humidity
levels will be a bit higher...and temps will also remain in the 90s
for most areas. Will have to pay close attention to the overall
temp/RH trend this day as heat index values may get close to Heat
Adv criteria. There will be a cold front approaching from the north
late Thu afternoon...but this front should remain in MO. Even
so...have mentioned some slight chance pops for the NRN counties as
that front gets closer to the state. Otherwise...just hot and humid
conditions will be the story for the short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Very little has changed since yesterday`s discussion, as the upper
level ridge of high pressure will remain in control through the
extended term. High temperatures will continue in the 90`s under the
ridge, and with dewpoints generally in the 70`s, heat index values
each afternoon will top out over 100.
I have low POPs in many areas throughout the extended term,
generally to cover afternoon and early evening convection that may
develop.
Toward the end of the extended term things will begin to change just
a bit, as the ridge axis centers over the desert southwest and a
broad trof develops over the eastern US. On the far eastern edge of
the ridge we could see a bit more convection in the afternoon hours,
and the remnants of any nocturnal MCS`s over the plains could drift
into portions of the CWA during the daytime hours. With those
scenarios in mind I have bumpped up POPs just a bit in the latter
forecast groups.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 76 96 77 95 / 10 10 0 20
Camden AR 75 96 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison AR 73 95 74 94 / 10 10 0 20
Hot Springs AR 75 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello AR 75 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida AR 73 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 74 97 75 96 / 10 10 0 20
Newport AR 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 0 20
Pine Bluff AR 75 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville AR 74 97 76 96 / 10 10 0 20
Searcy AR 74 96 76 95 / 10 10 0 20
Stuttgart AR 76 96 77 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect mainly daytime CU with bases at 3-5 kft this afternoon.
Tonight...VFR conditions should continue...with the exception
being some fog at ADF near sunrise. More of the same is expected
for the daylight hrs on Wed...with just some daytime CU with bases
3-5 kft.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect mainly daytime CU with bases at 3-5 kft this afternoon.
Tonight...VFR conditions should continue...with the exception
being some fog at ADF near sunrise. More of the same is expected
for the daylight hrs on Wed...with just some daytime CU with bases
3-5 kft.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TERMINALS DUE TO
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE JUST OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KADF THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE EARLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TERMINALS DUE TO
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE JUST OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KADF THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE EARLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 0
Camden AR 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison AR 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 94 76 96 77 / 10 0 10 0
Monticello AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 92 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
Mountain Home AR 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 0 10
Newport AR 94 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Russellville AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Searcy AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Stuttgart AR 93 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Camden AR 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
Harrison AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
Monticello AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Newport AR 75 93 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10
Russellville AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
Stuttgart AR 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Storms have had a hard time developing this afternoon in spite of
reasonable convergence along the frontal boundary in northern KS.
Thinking is that unless storms initiate fairly soon, the potential
should diminish with the boundary layer cooling and and a general
lack of large scale or meso scale forcing observed. Will maintain
the watch as is for a little while longer, but may be able to
clear out the counties early.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Potential for TS in the terminals appears to be to low to mention
in terminal as storms have failed to initiate along the boundary
so far. Therefore a VFR forecast is expected to persist.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
245 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a 2-4
hour window during which TS will be possible over and near all TAF
sites, mainly focused from 23Z-03Z. Downburst and outflow winds
will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop, and expect
these winds even from storms many miles to the north to change
wind direction out of the northeast this evening with gusts
possible. Will amend as needed for TS.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will remain centered over the
southern Plains the next few days, with a steady south to
southeasterly steering flow in place. This flow pattern will favor
maintaining enough moisture to support daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains east and south of Tucson.
GEFS suggests the upper high will broaden across the southern United
States, with a secondary high cell developing off the southern
California coast by the weekend. Eventually, a low pressure trough
forming over the Midwestern United States forces the upper high to
amplify and become centered over southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona next week. That said, the steering flow pattern will be
under continuous change but remaining favorable for thunderstorm
activity each day, especially this weekend and more so by next
Wednesday. Otherwise, high temperatures will remain above normal
through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z. Remaining debris cloudiness from
convection last night will mostly dissipate by 12z. Thereafter,
mainly clear skies this morning, then Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible again this afternoon. The convection will
generally be to the south and east of KTUS and focused over the
mountains. Normal diurnal wind trends with brief wind gusts of 35-40
kts possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Summer thunderstorm season is upon us, as we get our
toes wet with initially modest amounts of moisture this week. Think
of the Monsoon like an ocean tide that ebbs and flows. We have
multiple moisture sources and mechanisms, and the current typical
early season flow with less defined major features has brought us
precipitable water values around 1 to 1.2 inches and surface dew
points in the 40s to lower 50s. The deeper moisture to our south
will keep Sonora active, with our area on the northern fringes. We
should continue to favor border areas and mountains, with the
occasional outflow pushing a few storms deeper into the area from
time to time. Our current forecast may be a bit underdone near
border areas, and there are hints of a busier weekend than we are
currently advertising based on latest 700mb Theta-E trends.
Please see the previous discussion below for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
Partial clearing overnight from earlier convection near the border.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible again Wednesday
afternoon. Normal diurnal wind trends with brief wind gusts of 35-40
kts possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...The upper high centered near the 4-corners region
today shifts east into southern plains on Wednesday. Additionally
another high center will be forming off the southern California
coast. For our area the remainder of the work week will see south to
southeast flow aloft. This will keep enough moisture, along with
getting daily influxes from Sonora thunderstorm complexes, across
the area for isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms over the higher
terrain. Highs for the remainder of the work week will run 3-6
degrees above normal.
Some differences between GFS and ECMWF models for early next week
with respects to the strength of the upper high, high temperatures
and thunderstorm coverage. Although both models have an upper high
centered over NW Arizona, they differ on the strength of the high
over the state, and show a significant difference in high
temperatures and the amount of available moisture. GFS is the
driest/hottest of the two models with highs potentially back into
the low 110s for the valley locations, while the ECMWF is about 8-10
degrees cooler. This most likely due to have a lot more RH that the
ECMWF has across the area versus the GFS. Due to the uncertainty,
will keep status quo on temps/PoPs during the latter part of the
forecasts. The position of the high opens up the area for the
potential of storms moving off the rim early next week. Ahh, getting
into that monsoon forecasting mode.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
912 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High based showers and thunderstorms are forecast
on Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east central
Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms
each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up over the weekend when
the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing
across northern Arizona this evening. Yavapai County looks to
have the best shot at experiencing a few lingering thunderstorms
as outflows from today`s convection are currently crossing the
area, but the chances remain quite low.
Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for tomorrow, with strong winds again being the
primary threat. Unlike today, storms are expected to have a little
more movement. In general, storms will move from the southwest to
northeast around 10 mph.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...Arizona remains on the southwest
flank of large scale high pressure centered just east of the four
corners region. A slight increase in moisture today has resulted
in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. A
hot and dry boundary layer with substantial dew point depressions
is supportive of strong outflow wind gusts this afternoon and
evening and this will be the main thunderstorm concern. Have
continued low chances for showers overnight as some of the high
resolution models suggest this.
A similar day is expected on Wednesday as the moisture profile
does not change much. Isolated to scattered storms will develop
during the afternoon and evening hours with strong winds again a
threat.
A decreasing trend in afternoon convection is anticipated Thursday
and Friday as a trough moving through the western states pushes
drier air into northern Arizona. High pressure rebuilds over the
southwest late in the weekend into early next week as mostly dry
weather continues and temperatures climb well above average again.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Another round of isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again Wednesday afternoon. Probability of
thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though gusty wind
potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening through Thursday across much of northern
Arizona, especially over the higher terrain. Erratic and gusty winds
are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well
above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
900 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Conditions remain fairly quiet across the forecast area this evening
as 00Z KTWC sounding data sampled well mixed 7 g/kg boundary layer
moisture profiles, and objective analysis suggests even more scant
moisture throughout central AZ this evening. The previous discussion
below provides an excellent assessment of the mesoscale features
impacting the flow regime this evening. However despite the
marginally favorable dynamic fields described, instability has been
extremely limited and/or absent across the vast majority of the
forecast area. Thus, aside from a brief light passing shower
developing over higher terrain, see little impetus for much of any
rainfall mention the rest of tonight. Otherwise, minor changes to
account for recent hourly trends were made though not really
affecting the overall warm and dry forecast already advertised.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/220 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016/
Afternoon water vapor and infrared satellite loops depict a complex
and somewhat chaotic atmosphere south of the border over Sonora, Gulf
of CA and the Baja Peninsula. From west to east, isolated
thundershowers and debris clouds continue along one weakly organized
inverted mid-level wave. Next subtle meso-low circulation from last
evening`s Sierra Madre Occidental convection has transitioned over
the lower coastal Sonora elevations, maintaining some cooler cloud
tops and its visible circulation. Finally, inverted wave at the
700mb level was working northward towards Nogales/Bisbee, spawning
convection right along the International Border this early afternoon.
Mean flow aloft for the rest of the evening will hold out of the
southeast before slowing transitioning southwesterly early Wednesday
as the Monsoon High departs from the Four Corners region further to
our east. In addition, weak troughing over the Pac NW Coast and an
UL cyclonic circulation off the Baja Peninsula will help turn column
flow southwesterly. Before then, the aforementioned inverted Sonoran
wave and some limited mid level moisture fields will gen up some
storm activity over the mountainous/higher terrain locales. Latest
MDCRS soundings from air traffic around/in/out of KPHX today do show
this morning`s inversions from the 12z KPSR balloon are still there,
but only subtly. Moisture still remains a premium, with the few
dewpoint traces available noting some dry slotting at or above
500mb, with mixing occurring up through 600mb. Any development
northward in to the desert locales tonight should be in the form of
outflow winds and some debris clouds with maybe a sprinkle or two
surviving to the ground. Hi-res model output and meso-analysis
parameters support this and as such, most lower AZ desert PoPs for
the evening are less than 10 percent with only slight chances for the
typical mountainous areas of Southern Gila/Zone 24.
NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme percentiles rapidly
receding across the region today onward through the week.
Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will continue, though highs
will be well short of records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue
today and Wednesday, mainly due to the very warm morning conditions
providing little by way of relief from the previous day`s heat.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather,
little day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Timing daily wind shifts will be the primary aviation forecast
challenge through Wednesday afternoon with only scattered mid/high
clouds throughout the region. Confidence is fairly good that a
switch to an easterly wind component will occur later than typical
tonight, and closer to sunrise for KPHX. The change back to a
westerly wind may occur as early as late morning Wednesday.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Sfc wind forecast will be the main forecast problem through
Wednesday afternoon as only scattered mid/high clouds pass through
SE California. While a south wind 10-15kt will be favored at KBLH,
period of light and variable may be favored early Wednesday morning.
Similarly, west winds will be the preferred direction at KIPL though
times of variability will be likely. Forecast confidence in specific
timing of wind shifts and speeds is moderate to low.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
The hot weather pattern will continue to dominate the region
resulting in significantly above normal high temperatures ranging
from 109 to 113F. Otherwise, minimum relative humidities will
generally range in the 7 to 12 percent range. In addition, breezy
afternoons with southwesterly and/or upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 22 mph can also be expected each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
are expected to be mainly fair throughout the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO/Nolte/Hirsch
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions today...about 10 degrees above normal. High
based showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Wednesday.
Enough moisture will linger across east central Arizona Thursday
and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms each afternoon.
Temperatures warming back up over the weekend when the high
pressure ridge begins to strengthen over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains on the southwest flank of large
scale high pressure centered just east of the four corners region.
A slight increase in moisture today has resulted in isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm development. A hot and dry
boundary layer with substantial dew point depressions is
supportiveof strong outflow wind gusts this afternoon and
evening and this will be the main thunderstorm concern. Have
continued low chances for showers overnight as some of the high
resolution models suggest this.
A similar day is expected on Wednesday as the moisture profile
does not change much. Isolated to scattered storms will develop
during the afternoon and evening hours with strong winds again a
threat.
A decreasing trend in afternoon convection is anticipated Thursday
and Friday as a trough moving through the western states pushes
drier air into northern Arizona. High pressure rebuilds over the
southwest late in the weekend into early next week as mostly dry
weather continues and temperatures climb well above average
again.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA through 06Z
Wednesday, then lower chances 06Z-18Z. Another round of isolated
to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again Wednesday afternoon. Probability of
thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though gusty wind
potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening through Thursday across much of northern
Arizona, especially over the higher terrain. Erratic and gusty winds
are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well
above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be just enough moisture for a
slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially east of Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across Santa
Cruz county this afternoon, pushing to the NNW. Latest runs of the
HRRR push some of these storms potentially as far north as the
Tucson airport. Today has been cooler after two extreme temperature
record setting days.
The upper high centered near the 4-corners region today shifts east
into southern plains on Wednesday. Additionally another high center
will be forming off the southern California coast. For our area the
remainder of the work week will see south to southeast flow aloft.
This will keep enough moisture, along with getting daily influxes
from Sonora thunderstorm complexes, across the area for isolated
mainly mountain thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Highs for the
remainder of the work week will run 3-6 degrees above normal.
Some differences between GFS and ECMWF models for early next week
with respects to the strength of the upper high, high temperatures
and thunderstorm coverage. Although both models have an upper high
centered over NW Arizona, they differ on the strength of the high
over the state, and show a significant difference in high
temperatures and the amount of available moisture. GFS is the
driest/hottest of the two models with highs potentially back into
the low 110s for the valley locations, while the ECMWF is about 8-10
degrees cooler. This most likely due to have a lot more RH that the
ECMWF has across the area versus the GFS. Due to the uncertainty,
will keep status quo on temps/PoPs during the latter part of the
forecasts. The position of the high opens up the area for the
potential of storms moving off the rim early next week. Ahh, getting
into that monsoon forecasting mode.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
Sct clouds at 10-15k ft agl with sct-bkn clouds above. Isold-sct
-TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of a KOLS, to KTUS, to KSAD, to KSOW line
thru 22/04z. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany the -TSRA.
Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts thru the forecast
period, with occasional gusts to 20 kts thru 22/03z due to strong
surface heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
220 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon water vapor and infrared satellite loops depict a complex
and somewhat chaotic atmosphere south of the border over Sonora, Gulf
of CA and the Baja Peninsula. From west to east, isolated
thundershowers and debris clouds continue along one weakly organized
inverted mid-level wave. Next subtle meso-low circulation from last
evening`s Sierra Madre Occidental convection has transitioned over
the lower coastal Sonora elevations, maintaining some cooler cloud
tops and its visible circulation. Finally, inverted wave at the
700mb level was working northward towards Nogales/Bisbee, spawning
convection right along the International Border this early afternoon.
Mean flow aloft for the rest of the evening will hold out of the
southeast before slowing transitioning southwesterly early Wednesday
as the Monsoon High departs from the Four Corners region further to
our east. In addition, weak troughing over the Pac NW Coast and an
UL cyclonic circulation off the Baja Peninsula will help turn column
flow southwesterly. Before then, the aforementioned inverted Sonoran
wave and some limited mid level moisture fields will gen up some
storm activity over the mountainous/higher terrain locales. Latest
MDCRS soundings from air traffic around/in/out of KPHX today do show
this morning`s inversions from the 12z KPSR balloon are still there,
but only subtly. Moisture still remains a premium, with the few
dewpoint traces available noting some dry slotting at or above
500mb, with mixing occurring up through 600mb. Any development
northward in to the desert locales tonight should be in the form of
outflow winds and some debris clouds with maybe a sprinkle or two
surviving to the ground. Hi-res model output and meso-analysis
parameters support this and as such, most lower AZ desert PoPs for
the evening are less than 10 percent with only slight chances for the
typical mountainous areas of Southern Gila/Zone 24.
NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme percentiles rapidly
receding across the region today onward through the week.
Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will continue, though highs
will be well short of records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue
today and Wednesday, mainly due to the very warm morning conditions
providing little by way of relief from the previous day`s heat.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather,
little day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Southwesterly to westerly winds near 10 kts with occasional gusts of
15 to 20 kts are expected through the early evening. Tonight
easterly component and/or light and variable winds will begin from
about 07 to 10Z. Otherwise skies will be partly cloudy with periodic
mid to high level clouds and good visibilities.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Southerly to southeasterly winds near 10 kts this afternoon at KIPL
will become westerly and breezy beginning early this evening with
gusts to 20 kts. In addition, skies will be partly to occasionally
mostly cloudy with periodic mid to high level cigs. Expect very
breezy to occasionally windy southerly winds at KBLH with occasional
gusts of 22 to 27 kts during the afternoon. Otherwise skies will be
partly cloudy with scattered mid to high level clouds.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
The hot weather pattern will continue to dominate the region
resulting in significantly above normal high temperatures ranging
from 109 to 113F. Otherwise, minimum relative humidities will
generally range in the 7 to 12 percent range. In addition, breezy
afternoons with southwesterly and/or upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 22 mph can also be expected each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
are expected to be mainly fair throughout the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1007 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions today...about 10 degrees above normal. High
based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain
areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east
central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for a few
thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up over
the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen over
the area.
&&
.UPDATE...Isolated to scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening. They should
initially develop over the high terrain with a few possibly
drifting into the lower elevations. The main concern from the
showers and storms today will be outflow winds. Dew point
depressions are 40+ degrees with a rather dry boundary layer
leading to the threat for 50+ mph wind gusts throughout the day.
Showers will produce little in the way of rainfall. Made some
minor forecast adjustments for precipitation chances and tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /449 AM MST/...Strong high pressure is forecast
over the four corners area again today. At the same time a
subtropical airmass will be moving west underneath the high
pressure ridge. This airmass is cooler and more moist...and this
airmass is forecast to persist through Thursday...and then get
pushed southeast as the next low pressure trough enters the
western U.S. on Friday. The low pressure trough will bring a
drying WSW flow and a reduction in afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through 06Z Wednesday, then lower chances 06Z-18Z.
Probability of thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though
gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms across much of the
higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty winds would
likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Saturday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday and Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/TC
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1007 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions today...about 10 degrees above normal. High
based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain
areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east
central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for a few
thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up over
the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen over
the area.
&&
.UPDATE...Isolated to scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening. They should
initially develop over the high terrain with a few possibly
drifting into the lower elevations. The main concern from the
showers and storms today will be outflow winds. Dew point
depressions are 40+ degrees with a rather dry boundary layer
leading to the threat for 50+ mph wind gusts throughout the day.
Showers will produce little in the way of rainfall. Made some
minor forecast adjustments for precipitation chances and tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /449 AM MST/...Strong high pressure is forecast
over the four corners area again today. At the same time a
subtropical airmass will be moving west underneath the high
pressure ridge. This airmass is cooler and more moist...and this
airmass is forecast to persist through Thursday...and then get
pushed southeast as the next low pressure trough enters the
western U.S. on Friday. The low pressure trough will bring a
drying WSW flow and a reduction in afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through 06Z Wednesday, then lower chances 06Z-18Z.
Probability of thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though
gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms across much of the
higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty winds would
likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Saturday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday and Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/TC
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be just enough moisture for a
slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially east of Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed scattered to
broken cloud cover main west and south of Tucson, with clear
conditions elsewhere. Precipitable water values across the area
ranged from 0.75" to around 1". Streamline analysis and 12z 500 mb
height chart showed inverted trof extending from far w-central
Sonora MX to southeast AZ. This feature will continue to move to the
WNW today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
mountains of southeast AZ. A few of these storms may make it out
into the valleys, especially south of Tucson Gusty winds as usual
with these type storms which will produce little rainfall. After two
extreme temperature record setting days, today will be cooler.
The upper high centered near the 4-corners region today will shift
east into southern plains on Wednesday. This will bring a more south
to southeast flow aloft which will keep enough moisture around for a
slight chance of daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity,
mainly over the mountains, for the rest of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z. Residual debris cloudiness early
this morning across the western deserts, otherwise mostly clear
skies. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will be mainly east of KTUS
this afternoon and evening. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany the -TSRA thru the period. Otherwise, expect few to
scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl with scattered to broken clouds
above 25k ft msl. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts,
although occasional gusts to 20 kts should occur this afternoon due
to strong heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week. Gusty
outflow winds may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise...20-ft winds will be breezy during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime
heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
840 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
First full day of summer (Summer Solstice occurred yesterday
afternoon) starting off with more mild AM temperatures for most lower
desert elevation locales, in spite of the increased dewpoints and
humidities. Dewpoints are up anywhere from 6 to 9 degrees higher this
AM than last. Morning satellite imagery depicts a disorganized
inverted wave transitioning into the Gulf of CA with showers
dissipating. Lightning activity associated with the storms along this
wave has dropped off over the last few hours and along with slightly
warming cloud tops, think storm activity is all but done in the
proximity of this wave. Streamline analysis back over northern Mexico
points to another inverted wave over south-central New
Mexico/Chihuahua that should provide some support to any activity
that develops over the far eastern AZ mountains later in the
afternoon during typical peak heating. KPSR AM sounding does not have
much by way of CAPE, even any elevated pockets, so thinking if any
outflows travel into the lower desert elevations last like evening
from distant convection or along the latest inverted wave, only some
midlevel cloudiness will result. Simulated satellite imagery
maintains a return of mid-level clouds across the area today
capitalizing on the elevated thin moisture layer generally AOA
500mb/approx 17500ft. Only minor grid adjustments to hourly sky
cover and temperatures needed to match current trends, otherwise very
low-grade early Monsoon-like forecast package will continue with the
persistent excessive heat and afternoon showers/thunderstorms over
the Rim/eastern mountains.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Tue, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Tue to 03z Wed, sct-bkn
clouds aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Wed, sct-bkn clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... A strong high pressure system will
continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region providing a
slight chance of afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms mainly
over southern Gila County. Due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 12
percent. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the
10 to 25 mph range are expected each day. Good overnight recovery is
expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions on Tuesday...about 10 degrees above normal. An
increase in moisture is expected across northern Arizona...which
is bringing clouds which keeps the daytime highs a few degrees
cooler. High based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the
mountain areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger
across east central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for
a few thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up
over the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen
over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure is forecast over the four
corners area again today. At the same time a subtropical airmass
will be moving west underneath the high pressure ridge. This
airmass is cooler and more moist...and this airmass is forecast to
persist through Thursday...and then get pushed southeast as the
next low pressure trough enters the western U.S. on Friday. The
low pressure trough will bring a drying WSW flow and a reduction in
afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms from 18Z today through 06Z Wednesday, with the best
chances in the White Mountains. Probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms this afternoon across
much of the higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty
winds would likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...CLM
FIRE WEATHER...CLM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions on Tuesday...about 10 degrees above normal. An
increase in moisture is expected across northern Arizona...which
is bringing clouds which keeps the daytime highs a few degrees
cooler. High based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the
mountain areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger
across east central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for
a few thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up
over the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen
over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure is forecast over the four
corners area again today. At the same time a subtropical airmass
will be moving west underneath the high pressure ridge. This
airmass is cooler and more moist...and this airmass is forecast to
persist through Thursday...and then get pushed southeast as the
next low pressure trough enters the western U.S. on Friday. The
low pressure trough will bring a drying WSW flow and a reduction in
afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms from 18Z today through 06Z Wednesday, with the best
chances in the White Mountains. Probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms this afternoon across
much of the higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty
winds would likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...CLM
FIRE WEATHER...CLM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
325 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Tue, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Tue to 03z Wed, sct-bkn
clouds aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Wed, sct-bkn clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... A strong high pressure system will
continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region providing a
slight chance of afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms mainly
over southern Gila County. Due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 12
percent. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the
10 to 25 mph range are expected each day. Good overnight recovery is
expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
325 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Tue, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Tue to 03z Wed, sct-bkn
clouds aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Wed, sct-bkn clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... A strong high pressure system will
continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region providing a
slight chance of afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms mainly
over southern Gila County. Due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 12
percent. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the
10 to 25 mph range are expected each day. Good overnight recovery is
expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
324 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Increasing moisture across eastern Arizona has led to expansive mid
and high clouds across the area and should stick around to some
degree through the overnight hours. A weakening outflow coming off
the high terrain east of Phoenix will likely affect the KIWA later
this evening and possibly even KPHX, but confidence is not high
enough to add into the KPHX. Any residual shower or thunderstorm
activity this evening will skirt by to the south of the Phoenix area,
but we can`t rule out a few virga showers over the metro area before
midnight. Winds otherwise should mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. Another round of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain east of Phoenix may again bring a shot of outflow winds into
the Phoenix area terminals Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
An increase in moisture from the south will keep high scattered to
broken clouds aoa 15kft through the period. Winds will remain
elevated at both KIPL and KBLH and favor a southerly directional
component through Tuesday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Very warm temperatures will persist through the period. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the region, with slight chances
for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing over the
mountains of southern Gila County each day. Due to the extremely warm
afternoon temperatures minimum relative humidities will still stay
around 5 to 15 percent with good overnight recoveries. Outside of any
gusty erratic storm winds, winds should follow typical diurnal
directional trends and remain primarily around 5 to 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
324 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Increasing moisture across eastern Arizona has led to expansive mid
and high clouds across the area and should stick around to some
degree through the overnight hours. A weakening outflow coming off
the high terrain east of Phoenix will likely affect the KIWA later
this evening and possibly even KPHX, but confidence is not high
enough to add into the KPHX. Any residual shower or thunderstorm
activity this evening will skirt by to the south of the Phoenix area,
but we can`t rule out a few virga showers over the metro area before
midnight. Winds otherwise should mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. Another round of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain east of Phoenix may again bring a shot of outflow winds into
the Phoenix area terminals Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
An increase in moisture from the south will keep high scattered to
broken clouds aoa 15kft through the period. Winds will remain
elevated at both KIPL and KBLH and favor a southerly directional
component through Tuesday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Very warm temperatures will persist through the period. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the region, with slight chances
for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing over the
mountains of southern Gila County each day. Due to the extremely warm
afternoon temperatures minimum relative humidities will still stay
around 5 to 15 percent with good overnight recoveries. Outside of any
gusty erratic storm winds, winds should follow typical diurnal
directional trends and remain primarily around 5 to 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Hot daytime temperatures will continue into early next
week. There will also be just enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery was showing a few lingering
showers near Ajo in western Pima county, and moving west toward the
Colorado River. Otherwise, satellite imagery was showing clearing
skies east of there around Tucson and Safford. An increase in
moisture from yesterday along with daytime heating will result in
more afternoon cloudiness and a few thunderstorms today. This will
help lower daytime temperatures several degrees, but staying above
normal as an upper high remains centered over the four corners.
Model solutions shift the upper high to a position centered over the
southern Plains by Thursday. This will result in a more south to
southeasterly flow which will help maintain enough moisture across
the area for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The best
chance of rainfall will be in the mountains the next several days,
but cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm or two moving into the
valleys. Daytime temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal as high pressure aloft influences the weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z. Residual debris cloudiness early
this morning across the western deserts, otherwise mostly clear
skies. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will be mainly east of KTUS
this afternoon and evening. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany the -TSRA thru the period. Otherwise, expect few to
scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl with scattered to broken clouds
above 25k ft msl. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts,
although occasional gusts to 20 kts should occur this afternoon due
to strong heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week. Gusty
outflow winds may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise...20-ft winds will be breezy during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime
heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
902 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. A combined increase in moisture and cloud cover may
periodically yield slightly cooler temperatures and isolated
thunderstorms over higher terrain through the middle of the week.
Primarily dry weather will return to the region for the latter half
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Very strong upper level high pressure system remains situated across
the region, generally centered over the Four Corners region.
Widespread high temperatures above 115F affected the lower deserts
today which included a high of 124F in Blythe setting the all time
record warmest for the site. A shift in the winds aloft to an
easterly component over the southern 2/3 of Arizona has allowed for a
modest moisture increase across at least much of eastern Arizona and
areas slightly further westward. With the moisture increase (PWAT of
0.81 in via KTWC 00z raob) and the very hot temperatures, scattered
showers and thunderstorms affected higher terrain areas of eastern
Arizona this afternoon and early evening. Though the activity has
diminished considerably since 8 pm we may still see a few light
showers over Pinal County into the late evening. I made some minor
edits to PoPs and sky cover to match current trends, but the rest of
the forecast looks to be on track.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
An expansive and anomalously intense H5 ridge remains stretched
across essentially the entire southern Conus from northeast Arizona
through the Upper Ohio River Valley. The 12Z KTWC sounding once again
sampled daily record H5 heights (597dm) and H7/H8 temperatures
(+18.4C and +30.6C respectively) while KPSR 12Z sounding was even
slightly warmer aloft (+19.2C and +32.2C at H7 and H8). Objective
analysis indicates the core of the thermal ridge aloft shifting from
northern CA through SE CA this morning while a thermal sfc low has
become established near the Lower Colorado River.
These synoptic pressure fields have forced extensive southeast flow
through much of the forecast area (primarily the southern half)
and a modified Gulf surge through the Yuma/El Centro area while
deeper moisture profiles have advected westward across
the continental divide of New Mexico into the White Mountains.
The modest moisture infusion in the H7-H5 layer coincident with
nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates has resulted in MUCape near 500 J/kg
and deeper convection has materialized southeast of Show Low. High
resolution convective models and conceptual thinking suggests semi-
organized thunderstorms rolling into Gila county this afternoon and
evening before outrunning the better moisture and slowly
deteriorating at lower elevations.
Very interesting forecast tonight and Tuesday as upper divergence,
residual H5 moisture, and very steep lapse rates progress westward
across the forecast area. Interrogation of NAM Bufr soundings
indicates weak ascent within a small saturated layer while 9 C/km
lapse rates aloft yield MUCapes near 200 J/kg overnight. Many
global and high resolution models output QPF with a convective
response; and feel this situation is an excellent example of
numerous towering accas towers, very isolated storms, and extensive
virga and cloud cover through much of central and southwest AZ.
Kept pops somewhat muted as compared to numerical output, and would
not be surprised if several lightning strikes are noted around lower
elevations despite a lack of rainfall.
One consequence of this convection will likely be more extensive
cloud cover Tuesday resulting in warmer overnight lows and cooler
afternoon highs. Best performing guidance has started to indicate
Tuesday highs several degrees cooler, and have weighted more raw
guidance into the forecast. While this would bring afternoon
temperatures below what is traditionally considered heat warning
criteria, conditions will warm again Wednesday and Thursday (not to
mention the elevated overnight lows). Models are in very good
agreement with respect to temperatures aloft lowering slightly
Wednesday and Thursday, while the H5 pressure ridge descends
equatorward towards the international border. As a result, flow
aloft becomes more westerly deflecting moisture east of the forecast
area; and despite the lower heights, eventual afternoon highs may
end up exceeding those of Tuesday. As a result, have extended the
heat warning for the Phoenix metro through Thursday with some
likelihood other parts of SW AZ/SE CA will be included in this
extension in future forecast updates.
Friday through Sunday...
A bit more cooling and drying of the airmass is likely during this
period as the flow aloft becomes more westerly as a upper trof moves
inland into the Pac NW. However, temperatures will likely remain
above normal, in the 108-113 range across the lower deserts as 500mb
heights remain mainly in the 592-595dm range.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Increasing moisture across eastern Arizona has led to expansive mid
and high clouds across the area and should stick around to some
degree through the overnight hours. A weakening outflow coming off
the high terrain east of Phoenix will likely affect the KIWA later
this evening and possibly even KPHX, but confidence is not high
enough to add into the KPHX. Any residual shower or thunderstorm
activity this evening will skirt by to the south of the Phoenix area,
but we can`t rule out a few virga showers over the metro area before
midnight. Winds otherwise should mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. Another round of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain east of Phoenix may again bring a shot of outflow winds into
the Phoenix area terminals Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
An increase in moisture from the south will keep high scattered to
broken clouds aoa 15kft through the period. Winds will remain
elevated at both KIPL and KBLH and favor a southerly directional
component through Tuesday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Very warm temperatures will persist through the period. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the region, with slight chances
for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing over the
mountains of southern Gila County each day. Due to the extremely warm
afternoon temperatures minimum relative humidities will still stay
around 5 to 15 percent with good overnight recoveries. Outside of any
gusty erratic storm winds, winds should follow typical diurnal
directional trends and remain primarily around 5 to 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/Percha
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to very hot conditions on Tuesday. An increase in moisture is
expected across northern Arizona. High based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain areas on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east central Arizona
on Thursday and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms mainly
each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Some light shower activity continues this evening,
primarily south of Interstate 40. This shower activity is
expected to decrease through the overnight hours. Of note, around
440 pm mst today, a thunderstorm near Snowflake interacted with an
outflow boundary to briefly spin up a tornado. The tornado was
confirmed by a couple weather spotters in the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...A strong high pressure ridge will
continue to produce hot afternoon temperatures on Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool by several degrees each day as the ridge
moves southeast and lower Pacific air moves into the state. Due to
the lower temperature trends we removed the Excessive Heat Warning
for Tuesday as the afternoon high temperatures will be lower than
our warning impacts guidance permits. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be hot enough for continued plume dominated fires and pyrocumulus
development by the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm motion on Tuesday
will be westward around 5 to 10 mph with outflow driven winds
north of the Mogollon Rim.
An upper level trough located in southwestern New Mexico will
continue to move westward under the ridge axis causing
southeasterly flow to advect higher moisture amounts up into
Arizona. Expect isolated to scattered high based showers and
thunderstorm each day through Wednesday. The main impacts will be
additional lightning strikes initiating new fires and erratic
gusty winds up to 40 mph near thunderstorms.
On Thursday and Friday the ridge retreats southeastward and drier
Pacific southwesterly flow moves into the region. This air moving
into Arizona from the southwest will bring drier trends to the
state as a mid latitude trough moves into the west coast.
By Saturday and Sunday the high pressure ridge builds into the
western states once again. Expect continued dry weather conditions
with a return to hot afternoon temperature trends with light to
breezy winds through the upcoming weekend. Confidence is strong in
the return of hot and dry weather conditions on into the first
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Some light shower activity
continues this evening, primarily south of interstate 40. This
shower activity is expected to decrease through the overnight
hours. In addition, smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact
visibility at times. The chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will spread northwestward on Tuesday, including KGCN
and KFLG terminals though probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...chances for high-based storms will spread
northwest into much of the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Erratic and gusty winds would likely accompany any
showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the
area for a chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to very hot conditions on Tuesday. An increase in moisture is
expected across northern Arizona. High based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain areas on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east central Arizona
on Thursday and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms mainly
each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Some light shower activity continues this evening,
primarily south of Interstate 40. This shower activity is
expected to decrease through the overnight hours. Of note, around
440 pm mst today, a thunderstorm near Snowflake interacted with an
outflow boundary to briefly spin up a tornado. The tornado was
confirmed by a couple weather spotters in the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...A strong high pressure ridge will
continue to produce hot afternoon temperatures on Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool by several degrees each day as the ridge
moves southeast and lower Pacific air moves into the state. Due to
the lower temperature trends we removed the Excessive Heat Warning
for Tuesday as the afternoon high temperatures will be lower than
our warning impacts guidance permits. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be hot enough for continued plume dominated fires and pyrocumulus
development by the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm motion on Tuesday
will be westward around 5 to 10 mph with outflow driven winds
north of the Mogollon Rim.
An upper level trough located in southwestern New Mexico will
continue to move westward under the ridge axis causing
southeasterly flow to advect higher moisture amounts up into
Arizona. Expect isolated to scattered high based showers and
thunderstorm each day through Wednesday. The main impacts will be
additional lightning strikes initiating new fires and erratic
gusty winds up to 40 mph near thunderstorms.
On Thursday and Friday the ridge retreats southeastward and drier
Pacific southwesterly flow moves into the region. This air moving
into Arizona from the southwest will bring drier trends to the
state as a mid latitude trough moves into the west coast.
By Saturday and Sunday the high pressure ridge builds into the
western states once again. Expect continued dry weather conditions
with a return to hot afternoon temperature trends with light to
breezy winds through the upcoming weekend. Confidence is strong in
the return of hot and dry weather conditions on into the first
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Some light shower activity
continues this evening, primarily south of interstate 40. This
shower activity is expected to decrease through the overnight
hours. In addition, smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact
visibility at times. The chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will spread northwestward on Tuesday, including KGCN
and KFLG terminals though probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...chances for high-based storms will spread
northwest into much of the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Erratic and gusty winds would likely accompany any
showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the
area for a chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Hot daytime temperatures will continue into early next
week. There will also be just enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D detected scattered 35-55 dBZ echoes
extending from just north of Tucson northward into southeast Pinal
County. There is mostly virga associated with these echoes, although
a hundredth-or-two may ultimately be measured. Am somewhat surprised
that no wind gusts of significance were reported with the showers
and thunderstorms that developed earlier this afternoon and
continued into early this evening. A wind gust of 35 mph was
recorded via the Black Hills RAWS just prior to 7 pm MST, however.
Based on several HRRR solutions as well as satellite/radar trends,
have updated the official forecast to include a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms the rest of tonight west-to-northwest of
Tucson. Water vapor satellite imagery suggests the presence of a
cyclonic twist representing a vort max over nern Sonora that will
move into far sern sections during the next few hours. Synoptic-
scale ascent and a marginally unstable environment ahead of this
system suggests the potential for a few showers/tstms to continue
during the next several hours. Any rainfall should be quite light,
with just a few hundredths of an inch expected to occur at best. Any
precip should end by daybreak Tuesday.
Please refer to the previous sections for additional detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly west-to-north of KTUS ending around
daybreak Tuesday. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of
KTUS Tuesday afternoon and evening. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts
may accompany the -TSRA thru the period. Otherwise, expect a few to
scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl with scattered to broken clouds
above 25k ft msl. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts,
although occasional gusts to 20 kts should occur Tuesday afternoon
due to strong heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week. Gusty
outflow winds may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise...20-ft winds will be breezy during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime
heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /229 PM MST/...Models depict the high remaining in
the same general location as the inverted trough undercuts the ridge
and moves fromeast to west across Mexico and into the eastern
Pacific throughTuesday. The 12Z U of A WRF/NAM & GFS are depicting
isolatedthunderstorm development along the Mogollon rim and the
Whitemountains, as well as parts of Santa Cruz county this afternoon
andevening. Similar development Tuesday but affecting parts of
Graham, Pinal and Pima counties as well, but still only isolated in
natureand mostly over the mountains.
By Wednesday, the high will generally be located over the southern
plains, with southerly flow on the western flank of the ridge
allowing for a continuation of moisture transport with most of the
thunderstorm develop over the mountains. Through late in the week
and through the weekend the ridge will extend west to east across
parts of the deserts southwest and into the southern plains with
lingering moisture to our south and east, thus keeping a small
threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon
and evening with only slight day to day variations and with the best
potential for storms to occur over the mountains from Tucson
eastward.
For Tucson, high temperatures will generally range from 4 to 6 degs
above normal each day. Low temperatures will be around 8 to 10 degs
above normal Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, then 5 to 7 degs above
normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions
that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was
present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing
eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered
over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward
into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should
help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front
eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the
cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early
afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon
with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to
Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient
is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In
fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending
from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this
afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high
temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend
on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs
expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest
temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher
850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha,
in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105
degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas
this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints
(possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA
during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint
temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast
Kansas.
Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight
across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by
Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as
soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some
low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit
how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds
behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east
central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a
location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central
Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak
upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the
front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms.
Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on
areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a
wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be
ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across
eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the
area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern
Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to
develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS
that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to
remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then
moves southeast across much of the area into east central or
southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the
atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems
in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There
could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on
timing and location so confidence remains on the low side.
Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday
the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in
the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central
Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
A few minor adjustments to timing, mixing out winds around 14z and
added winds decreasing as boundary sags into the area in the
afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions expected.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold
front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM
were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day
than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to
agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around
Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air
is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary
and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS
late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101
degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid
to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will
not stray far from this.
Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal
boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast
to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will
be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms
will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not
high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating
so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small
chances west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the
western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level
trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the
Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there
will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing
across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface
boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the
timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving
chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better
opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the
timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return,
improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor
undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover
and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon.
Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday
night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north
will begin favor the better chances for convection across western
Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off
from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday.
Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level
trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will
favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday,
especially in far western Kansas.
Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the
Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south
into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with
this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains.
At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across
western Kansas will be Saturday night.
For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be
trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a
northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and
northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing
northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains
through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least
a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight
chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it
also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal
levels for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
South to southwest winds will continue overnight into early
Wednesday at around 15 knots. These winds will decrease to around
10 knots by the early afternoon as a surface cold front moves into
southwest Kansas between 18z and 21z Wednesday. This frontal
boundary will then drift slowly south through the remainder of the
day. At this time this frontal boundary will be south of GCK and
HYS and by 21z Wednesday. This boundary will then move south and
east of DDC between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. As this
frontal boundary passes the southwest wind will shift to the
west....and then northwest. These winds will eventually shift to
the north northeast. VFR conditions are expected today. Mid to
high level moisture will start to increase from west to east after
00z Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 71 92 70 / 10 10 30 30
GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 99 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40
LBL 102 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30
HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50
P28 102 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect more showers and thunderstorms today, followed by
a drying trend heading into the weekend. More favorable conditions
will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to
become more numerous. Temperatures will remain above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The amplitude of our record setting ridge will
continue to decrease for the next few days as westerly flow develops
over the northern Great Basin. This will slowly push moisture out of
the area by Thursday and Friday, with most activity over the far
eastern portions of the state after today.
The ridge will then redevelop and move back west by early next week.
This will allow for moisture and convective activity to increase
once again. Daily temperatures will remain on the warm side through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Another round of isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again this afternoon decreasing by sunset.
Best chances for tsra along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
south, strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening across much of northern Arizona today, and
then from the Mogollon Rim south on Thursday, especially over the
higher terrain. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any
showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect more showers and thunderstorms today, followed by
a drying trend heading into the weekend. More favorable conditions
will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to
become more numerous. Temperatures will remain above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The amplitude of our record setting ridge will
continue to decrease for the next few days as westerly flow develops
over the northern Great Basin. This will slowly push moisture out of
the area by Thursday and Friday, with most activity over the far
eastern portions of the state after today.
The ridge will then redevelop and move back west by early next week.
This will allow for moisture and convective activity to increase
once again. Daily temperatures will remain on the warm side through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Another round of isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again this afternoon decreasing by sunset.
Best chances for tsra along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
south, strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening across much of northern Arizona today, and
then from the Mogollon Rim south on Thursday, especially over the
higher terrain. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any
showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
350 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring continued hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
The monsoon high will also bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the desert southwest next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery and streamline analysis show a weak
inverted trough extending from an upper low off the Baja Peninsula.
Models are in good agreement showing the trough lifting northward
today into upper Colorado River Valley. In its wake, mainly sunny
skies will prevail along with a continuation of the above normal
temperatures. Conditions remain quite warm early this morning and the
Excessive Heat Warning will continue through this afternoon for the
lower deserts.
Southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will transport
somewhat drier air into southeastern CA tonight, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures overnight tonight into Thursday morning.
Consequently, the Excessive Heat Warning will expire this evening for
southeastern California and southwestern Arizona.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Wed, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Wed to 03z Thu, sct clouds
aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Thu, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...A strong high pressure system will continue
the unseasonably warm heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region, however due to
the extremely warm afternoon temperatures, minimum relative
humidities will range from 10 to 12 percent. Enhanced afternoon
southwest winds or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are
expected each day, particularly mountains. Good overnight recovery
is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for
AZZ020>022-025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will remain centered over the
southern Plains the next few days, with a steady south to
southeasterly steering flow in place. This flow pattern will favor
maintaining enough moisture to support daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains east and south of Tucson.
GEFS suggests the upper high will broaden across the southern United
States, with a secondary high cell developing off the southern
California coast by the weekend. Eventually, a low pressure trough
forming over the Midwestern United States forces the upper high to
amplify and become centered over southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona next week. That said, the steering flow pattern will be
under continuous change but remaining favorable for thunderstorm
activity each day, especially this weekend and more so by next
Wednesday. Otherwise, high temperatures will remain above normal
through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z. Remaining debris cloudiness from
convection last night will mostly dissipate by 12z. Thereafter,
mainly clear skies this morning, then Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible again this afternoon. The convection will
generally be to the south and east of KTUS and focused over the
mountains. Normal diurnal wind trends with brief wind gusts of 35-40
kts possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect more showers and thunderstorms today, followed by
a drying trend heading into the weekend. More favorable conditions
will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to
become more numerous. Temperatures will remain above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The amplitude of our record setting ridge will
continue to decrease for the next few days as westerly flow develops
over the northern Great Basin. This will slowly push moisture out of
the area by Thursday and Friday, with most activity over the far
eastern portions of the state after today.
The ridge will then redevelop and move back west by early next week.
This will allow for moisture and convective activity to increase
once again. Daily temperatures will remain on the warm side through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Another round of isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again this afternoon decreasing by sunset.
Best chances for tsra along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
south, strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening across much of northern Arizona today, and
then from the Mogollon Rim south on Thursday, especially over the
higher terrain. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any
showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect more showers and thunderstorms today, followed by
a drying trend heading into the weekend. More favorable conditions
will return early next week, allowing showers and thunderstorms to
become more numerous. Temperatures will remain above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The amplitude of our record setting ridge will
continue to decrease for the next few days as westerly flow develops
over the northern Great Basin. This will slowly push moisture out of
the area by Thursday and Friday, with most activity over the far
eastern portions of the state after today.
The ridge will then redevelop and move back west by early next week.
This will allow for moisture and convective activity to increase
once again. Daily temperatures will remain on the warm side through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Another round of isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again this afternoon decreasing by sunset.
Best chances for tsra along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
south, strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening across much of northern Arizona today, and
then from the Mogollon Rim south on Thursday, especially over the
higher terrain. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with any
showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
350 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring continued hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
The monsoon high will also bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the desert southwest next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery and streamline analysis show a weak
inverted trough extending from an upper low off the Baja Peninsula.
Models are in good agreement showing the trough lifting northward
today into upper Colorado River Valley. In its wake, mainly sunny
skies will prevail along with a continuation of the above normal
temperatures. Conditions remain quite warm early this morning and the
Excessive Heat Warning will continue through this afternoon for the
lower deserts.
Southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will transport
somewhat drier air into southeastern CA tonight, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures overnight tonight into Thursday morning.
Consequently, the Excessive Heat Warning will expire this evening for
southeastern California and southwestern Arizona.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Wed, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Wed to 03z Thu, sct clouds
aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Thu, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...A strong high pressure system will continue
the unseasonably warm heat wave through Tuesday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region, however due to
the extremely warm afternoon temperatures, minimum relative
humidities will range from 10 to 12 percent. Enhanced afternoon
southwest winds or upslope winds in the 10 to 25 mph range are
expected each day, particularly mountains. Good overnight recovery
is expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for
AZZ020>022-025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
330 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring continued hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
The monsoon high will also bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the desert southwest next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery and streamline analysis show a weak
inverted trough extending from an upper low off the Baja Peninsula.
Models are in good agreement showing the trough lifting northward
today into upper Colorado River Valley. In its wake, mainly sunny
skies will prevail along with a continuation of the above normal
temperatures. Conditions remain quite warm early this morning and the
Excessive Heat Warning will continue through this afternoon for the
lower deserts.
Southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will transport
somewhat drier air into southeastern CA tonight, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures overnight tonight into Thursday morning.
Consequently, the Excessive Heat Warning will expire this evening for
southeastern California and southwestern Arizona.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Timing daily wind shifts will be the primary aviation forecast
challenge through Wednesday afternoon with only scattered mid/high
clouds throughout the region. Confidence is fairly good that a
switch to an easterly wind component will occur later than typical
tonight, and closer to sunrise for KPHX. The change back to a
westerly wind may occur as early as late morning Wednesday.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Sfc wind forecast will be the main forecast problem through
Wednesday afternoon as only scattered mid/high clouds pass through
SE California. While a south wind 10-15kt will be favored at KBLH,
period of light and variable may be favored early Wednesday morning.
Similarly, west winds will be the preferred direction at KIPL though
times of variability will be likely. Forecast confidence in specific
timing of wind shifts and speeds is moderate to low.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
The hot weather pattern will continue to dominate the region
resulting in significantly above normal high temperatures ranging
from 109 to 113F. Otherwise, minimum relative humidities will
generally range in the 7 to 12 percent range. In addition, breezy
afternoons with southwesterly and/or upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 22 mph can also be expected each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
are expected to be mainly fair throughout the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for
AZZ020>022-025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
330 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring continued hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
The monsoon high will also bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the desert southwest next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery and streamline analysis show a weak
inverted trough extending from an upper low off the Baja Peninsula.
Models are in good agreement showing the trough lifting northward
today into upper Colorado River Valley. In its wake, mainly sunny
skies will prevail along with a continuation of the above normal
temperatures. Conditions remain quite warm early this morning and the
Excessive Heat Warning will continue through this afternoon for the
lower deserts.
Southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will transport
somewhat drier air into southeastern CA tonight, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures overnight tonight into Thursday morning.
Consequently, the Excessive Heat Warning will expire this evening for
southeastern California and southwestern Arizona.
Aforementioned trough and remnants of the upper low will persist
into the weekend in the form of a weakness in the mid-level pressure
field across the Colorado River Valley. This will help to establish a
gradient between drier air off to the west and deeper moisture across
southeastern Arizona.
Latest operational GFS and ECMWF are both showing two separate high
centers consolidating across the desert southwest early next week.
With the ridge to our north, this will induce an increasing
southerly and easterly component to the mean flow. Latest models are
also showing a trend towards deeper moisture and potentially an
increasing influence from easterly waves and PVDs. PoPs were
consequently increased about 10 percent across much of the area. Heat
will also remain a concern with the monsoon high in the vicinity.
Latest NAEFS members are showing low variability, suggesting high
probabilities for above normal temperatures. This is also supported
by the ECMWF ensemble, which continues to show low normalized
standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Timing daily wind shifts will be the primary aviation forecast
challenge through Wednesday afternoon with only scattered mid/high
clouds throughout the region. Confidence is fairly good that a
switch to an easterly wind component will occur later than typical
tonight, and closer to sunrise for KPHX. The change back to a
westerly wind may occur as early as late morning Wednesday.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Sfc wind forecast will be the main forecast problem through
Wednesday afternoon as only scattered mid/high clouds pass through
SE California. While a south wind 10-15kt will be favored at KBLH,
period of light and variable may be favored early Wednesday morning.
Similarly, west winds will be the preferred direction at KIPL though
times of variability will be likely. Forecast confidence in specific
timing of wind shifts and speeds is moderate to low.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
The hot weather pattern will continue to dominate the region
resulting in significantly above normal high temperatures ranging
from 109 to 113F. Otherwise, minimum relative humidities will
generally range in the 7 to 12 percent range. In addition, breezy
afternoons with southwesterly and/or upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 22 mph can also be expected each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
are expected to be mainly fair throughout the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for
AZZ020>022-025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will remain centered over the
southern Plains the next few days, with a steady south to
southeasterly steering flow in place. This flow pattern will favor
maintaining enough moisture to support daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains east and south of Tucson.
GEFS suggests the upper high will broaden across the southern United
States, with a secondary high cell developing off the southern
California coast by the weekend. Eventually, a low pressure trough
forming over the Midwestern United States forces the upper high to
amplify and become centered over southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona next week. That said, the steering flow pattern will be
under continuous change but remaining favorable for thunderstorm
activity each day, especially this weekend and more so by next
Wednesday. Otherwise, high temperatures will remain above normal
through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z. Remaining debris cloudiness from
convection last night will mostly dissipate by 12z. Thereafter,
mainly clear skies this morning, then Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible again this afternoon. The convection will
generally be to the south and east of KTUS and focused over the
mountains. Normal diurnal wind trends with brief wind gusts of 35-40
kts possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Summer thunderstorm season is upon us, as we get our
toes wet with initially modest amounts of moisture this week. Think
of the Monsoon like an ocean tide that ebbs and flows. We have
multiple moisture sources and mechanisms, and the current typical
early season flow with less defined major features has brought us
precipitable water values around 1 to 1.2 inches and surface dew
points in the 40s to lower 50s. The deeper moisture to our south
will keep Sonora active, with our area on the northern fringes. We
should continue to favor border areas and mountains, with the
occasional outflow pushing a few storms deeper into the area from
time to time. Our current forecast may be a bit underdone near
border areas, and there are hints of a busier weekend than we are
currently advertising based on latest 700mb Theta-E trends.
Please see the previous discussion below for additional details.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
Partial clearing overnight from earlier convection near the border.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible again Wednesday
afternoon. Normal diurnal wind trends with brief wind gusts of 35-40
kts possible near storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...The upper high centered near the 4-corners region
today shifts east into southern plains on Wednesday. Additionally
another high center will be forming off the southern California
coast. For our area the remainder of the work week will see south to
southeast flow aloft. This will keep enough moisture, along with
getting daily influxes from Sonora thunderstorm complexes, across
the area for isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms over the higher
terrain. Highs for the remainder of the work week will run 3-6
degrees above normal.
Some differences between GFS and ECMWF models for early next week
with respects to the strength of the upper high, high temperatures
and thunderstorm coverage. Although both models have an upper high
centered over NW Arizona, they differ on the strength of the high
over the state, and show a significant difference in high
temperatures and the amount of available moisture. GFS is the
driest/hottest of the two models with highs potentially back into
the low 110s for the valley locations, while the ECMWF is about 8-10
degrees cooler. This most likely due to have a lot more RH that the
ECMWF has across the area versus the GFS. Due to the uncertainty,
will keep status quo on temps/PoPs during the latter part of the
forecasts. The position of the high opens up the area for the
potential of storms moving off the rim early next week. Ahh, getting
into that monsoon forecasting mode.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
912 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High based showers and thunderstorms are forecast
on Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east central
Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms
each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up over the weekend when
the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing
across northern Arizona this evening. Yavapai County looks to
have the best shot at experiencing a few lingering thunderstorms
as outflows from today`s convection are currently crossing the
area, but the chances remain quite low.
Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast for tomorrow, with strong winds again being the
primary threat. Unlike today, storms are expected to have a little
more movement. In general, storms will move from the southwest to
northeast around 10 mph.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...Arizona remains on the southwest
flank of large scale high pressure centered just east of the four
corners region. A slight increase in moisture today has resulted
in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. A
hot and dry boundary layer with substantial dew point depressions
is supportive of strong outflow wind gusts this afternoon and
evening and this will be the main thunderstorm concern. Have
continued low chances for showers overnight as some of the high
resolution models suggest this.
A similar day is expected on Wednesday as the moisture profile
does not change much. Isolated to scattered storms will develop
during the afternoon and evening hours with strong winds again a
threat.
A decreasing trend in afternoon convection is anticipated Thursday
and Friday as a trough moving through the western states pushes
drier air into northern Arizona. High pressure rebuilds over the
southwest late in the weekend into early next week as mostly dry
weather continues and temperatures climb well above average again.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Another round of isolated to
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again Wednesday afternoon. Probability of
thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though gusty wind
potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening through Thursday across much of northern
Arizona, especially over the higher terrain. Erratic and gusty winds
are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well
above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
900 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Conditions remain fairly quiet across the forecast area this evening
as 00Z KTWC sounding data sampled well mixed 7 g/kg boundary layer
moisture profiles, and objective analysis suggests even more scant
moisture throughout central AZ this evening. The previous discussion
below provides an excellent assessment of the mesoscale features
impacting the flow regime this evening. However despite the
marginally favorable dynamic fields described, instability has been
extremely limited and/or absent across the vast majority of the
forecast area. Thus, aside from a brief light passing shower
developing over higher terrain, see little impetus for much of any
rainfall mention the rest of tonight. Otherwise, minor changes to
account for recent hourly trends were made though not really
affecting the overall warm and dry forecast already advertised.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/220 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016/
Afternoon water vapor and infrared satellite loops depict a complex
and somewhat chaotic atmosphere south of the border over Sonora, Gulf
of CA and the Baja Peninsula. From west to east, isolated
thundershowers and debris clouds continue along one weakly organized
inverted mid-level wave. Next subtle meso-low circulation from last
evening`s Sierra Madre Occidental convection has transitioned over
the lower coastal Sonora elevations, maintaining some cooler cloud
tops and its visible circulation. Finally, inverted wave at the
700mb level was working northward towards Nogales/Bisbee, spawning
convection right along the International Border this early afternoon.
Mean flow aloft for the rest of the evening will hold out of the
southeast before slowing transitioning southwesterly early Wednesday
as the Monsoon High departs from the Four Corners region further to
our east. In addition, weak troughing over the Pac NW Coast and an
UL cyclonic circulation off the Baja Peninsula will help turn column
flow southwesterly. Before then, the aforementioned inverted Sonoran
wave and some limited mid level moisture fields will gen up some
storm activity over the mountainous/higher terrain locales. Latest
MDCRS soundings from air traffic around/in/out of KPHX today do show
this morning`s inversions from the 12z KPSR balloon are still there,
but only subtly. Moisture still remains a premium, with the few
dewpoint traces available noting some dry slotting at or above
500mb, with mixing occurring up through 600mb. Any development
northward in to the desert locales tonight should be in the form of
outflow winds and some debris clouds with maybe a sprinkle or two
surviving to the ground. Hi-res model output and meso-analysis
parameters support this and as such, most lower AZ desert PoPs for
the evening are less than 10 percent with only slight chances for the
typical mountainous areas of Southern Gila/Zone 24.
NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme percentiles rapidly
receding across the region today onward through the week.
Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will continue, though highs
will be well short of records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue
today and Wednesday, mainly due to the very warm morning conditions
providing little by way of relief from the previous day`s heat.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather,
little day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Timing daily wind shifts will be the primary aviation forecast
challenge through Wednesday afternoon with only scattered mid/high
clouds throughout the region. Confidence is fairly good that a
switch to an easterly wind component will occur later than typical
tonight, and closer to sunrise for KPHX. The change back to a
westerly wind may occur as early as late morning Wednesday.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Sfc wind forecast will be the main forecast problem through
Wednesday afternoon as only scattered mid/high clouds pass through
SE California. While a south wind 10-15kt will be favored at KBLH,
period of light and variable may be favored early Wednesday morning.
Similarly, west winds will be the preferred direction at KIPL though
times of variability will be likely. Forecast confidence in specific
timing of wind shifts and speeds is moderate to low.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
The hot weather pattern will continue to dominate the region
resulting in significantly above normal high temperatures ranging
from 109 to 113F. Otherwise, minimum relative humidities will
generally range in the 7 to 12 percent range. In addition, breezy
afternoons with southwesterly and/or upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 22 mph can also be expected each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
are expected to be mainly fair throughout the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...MO/Nolte/Hirsch
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions today...about 10 degrees above normal. High
based showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Wednesday.
Enough moisture will linger across east central Arizona Thursday
and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms each afternoon.
Temperatures warming back up over the weekend when the high
pressure ridge begins to strengthen over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains on the southwest flank of large
scale high pressure centered just east of the four corners region.
A slight increase in moisture today has resulted in isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm development. A hot and dry
boundary layer with substantial dew point depressions is
supportiveof strong outflow wind gusts this afternoon and
evening and this will be the main thunderstorm concern. Have
continued low chances for showers overnight as some of the high
resolution models suggest this.
A similar day is expected on Wednesday as the moisture profile
does not change much. Isolated to scattered storms will develop
during the afternoon and evening hours with strong winds again a
threat.
A decreasing trend in afternoon convection is anticipated Thursday
and Friday as a trough moving through the western states pushes
drier air into northern Arizona. High pressure rebuilds over the
southwest late in the weekend into early next week as mostly dry
weather continues and temperatures climb well above average
again.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA through 06Z
Wednesday, then lower chances 06Z-18Z. Another round of isolated
to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA again Wednesday afternoon. Probability of
thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though gusty wind
potential from storm outflows will be the main threat. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers and storms each
afternoon and evening through Thursday across much of northern
Arizona, especially over the higher terrain. Erratic and gusty winds
are likely with any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well
above normal.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures will remain well above
normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the White
Mountains with otherwise dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be just enough moisture for a
slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially east of Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across Santa
Cruz county this afternoon, pushing to the NNW. Latest runs of the
HRRR push some of these storms potentially as far north as the
Tucson airport. Today has been cooler after two extreme temperature
record setting days.
The upper high centered near the 4-corners region today shifts east
into southern plains on Wednesday. Additionally another high center
will be forming off the southern California coast. For our area the
remainder of the work week will see south to southeast flow aloft.
This will keep enough moisture, along with getting daily influxes
from Sonora thunderstorm complexes, across the area for isolated
mainly mountain thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Highs for the
remainder of the work week will run 3-6 degrees above normal.
Some differences between GFS and ECMWF models for early next week
with respects to the strength of the upper high, high temperatures
and thunderstorm coverage. Although both models have an upper high
centered over NW Arizona, they differ on the strength of the high
over the state, and show a significant difference in high
temperatures and the amount of available moisture. GFS is the
driest/hottest of the two models with highs potentially back into
the low 110s for the valley locations, while the ECMWF is about 8-10
degrees cooler. This most likely due to have a lot more RH that the
ECMWF has across the area versus the GFS. Due to the uncertainty,
will keep status quo on temps/PoPs during the latter part of the
forecasts. The position of the high opens up the area for the
potential of storms moving off the rim early next week. Ahh, getting
into that monsoon forecasting mode.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
Sct clouds at 10-15k ft agl with sct-bkn clouds above. Isold-sct
-TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of a KOLS, to KTUS, to KSAD, to KSOW line
thru 22/04z. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may accompany the -TSRA.
Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts thru the forecast
period, with occasional gusts to 20 kts thru 22/03z due to strong
surface heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds may
accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot winds
will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening hours
each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
220 PM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon water vapor and infrared satellite loops depict a complex
and somewhat chaotic atmosphere south of the border over Sonora, Gulf
of CA and the Baja Peninsula. From west to east, isolated
thundershowers and debris clouds continue along one weakly organized
inverted mid-level wave. Next subtle meso-low circulation from last
evening`s Sierra Madre Occidental convection has transitioned over
the lower coastal Sonora elevations, maintaining some cooler cloud
tops and its visible circulation. Finally, inverted wave at the
700mb level was working northward towards Nogales/Bisbee, spawning
convection right along the International Border this early afternoon.
Mean flow aloft for the rest of the evening will hold out of the
southeast before slowing transitioning southwesterly early Wednesday
as the Monsoon High departs from the Four Corners region further to
our east. In addition, weak troughing over the Pac NW Coast and an
UL cyclonic circulation off the Baja Peninsula will help turn column
flow southwesterly. Before then, the aforementioned inverted Sonoran
wave and some limited mid level moisture fields will gen up some
storm activity over the mountainous/higher terrain locales. Latest
MDCRS soundings from air traffic around/in/out of KPHX today do show
this morning`s inversions from the 12z KPSR balloon are still there,
but only subtly. Moisture still remains a premium, with the few
dewpoint traces available noting some dry slotting at or above
500mb, with mixing occurring up through 600mb. Any development
northward in to the desert locales tonight should be in the form of
outflow winds and some debris clouds with maybe a sprinkle or two
surviving to the ground. Hi-res model output and meso-analysis
parameters support this and as such, most lower AZ desert PoPs for
the evening are less than 10 percent with only slight chances for the
typical mountainous areas of Southern Gila/Zone 24.
NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme percentiles rapidly
receding across the region today onward through the week.
Nevertheless, above normal temperatures will continue, though highs
will be well short of records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue
today and Wednesday, mainly due to the very warm morning conditions
providing little by way of relief from the previous day`s heat.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather,
little day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Southwesterly to westerly winds near 10 kts with occasional gusts of
15 to 20 kts are expected through the early evening. Tonight
easterly component and/or light and variable winds will begin from
about 07 to 10Z. Otherwise skies will be partly cloudy with periodic
mid to high level clouds and good visibilities.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Southerly to southeasterly winds near 10 kts this afternoon at KIPL
will become westerly and breezy beginning early this evening with
gusts to 20 kts. In addition, skies will be partly to occasionally
mostly cloudy with periodic mid to high level cigs. Expect very
breezy to occasionally windy southerly winds at KBLH with occasional
gusts of 22 to 27 kts during the afternoon. Otherwise skies will be
partly cloudy with scattered mid to high level clouds.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...
The hot weather pattern will continue to dominate the region
resulting in significantly above normal high temperatures ranging
from 109 to 113F. Otherwise, minimum relative humidities will
generally range in the 7 to 12 percent range. In addition, breezy
afternoons with southwesterly and/or upslope winds with gusts of 15
to 22 mph can also be expected each afternoon. Overnight recoveries
are expected to be mainly fair throughout the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1007 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions today...about 10 degrees above normal. High
based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain
areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east
central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for a few
thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up over
the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen over
the area.
&&
.UPDATE...Isolated to scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening. They should
initially develop over the high terrain with a few possibly
drifting into the lower elevations. The main concern from the
showers and storms today will be outflow winds. Dew point
depressions are 40+ degrees with a rather dry boundary layer
leading to the threat for 50+ mph wind gusts throughout the day.
Showers will produce little in the way of rainfall. Made some
minor forecast adjustments for precipitation chances and tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /449 AM MST/...Strong high pressure is forecast
over the four corners area again today. At the same time a
subtropical airmass will be moving west underneath the high
pressure ridge. This airmass is cooler and more moist...and this
airmass is forecast to persist through Thursday...and then get
pushed southeast as the next low pressure trough enters the
western U.S. on Friday. The low pressure trough will bring a
drying WSW flow and a reduction in afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through 06Z Wednesday, then lower chances 06Z-18Z.
Probability of thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though
gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms across much of the
higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty winds would
likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Saturday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday and Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/TC
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1007 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions today...about 10 degrees above normal. High
based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain
areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east
central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for a few
thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up over
the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen over
the area.
&&
.UPDATE...Isolated to scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening. They should
initially develop over the high terrain with a few possibly
drifting into the lower elevations. The main concern from the
showers and storms today will be outflow winds. Dew point
depressions are 40+ degrees with a rather dry boundary layer
leading to the threat for 50+ mph wind gusts throughout the day.
Showers will produce little in the way of rainfall. Made some
minor forecast adjustments for precipitation chances and tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /449 AM MST/...Strong high pressure is forecast
over the four corners area again today. At the same time a
subtropical airmass will be moving west underneath the high
pressure ridge. This airmass is cooler and more moist...and this
airmass is forecast to persist through Thursday...and then get
pushed southeast as the next low pressure trough enters the
western U.S. on Friday. The low pressure trough will bring a
drying WSW flow and a reduction in afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through 06Z Wednesday, then lower chances 06Z-18Z.
Probability of thunderstorms is too low to include in TAFs, though
gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the main threat.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms across much of the
higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty winds would
likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Saturday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday and Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCS/TC
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Mottice
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
920 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be just enough moisture for a
slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
especially east of Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed scattered to
broken cloud cover main west and south of Tucson, with clear
conditions elsewhere. Precipitable water values across the area
ranged from 0.75" to around 1". Streamline analysis and 12z 500 mb
height chart showed inverted trof extending from far w-central
Sonora MX to southeast AZ. This feature will continue to move to the
WNW today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
mountains of southeast AZ. A few of these storms may make it out
into the valleys, especially south of Tucson Gusty winds as usual
with these type storms which will produce little rainfall. After two
extreme temperature record setting days, today will be cooler.
The upper high centered near the 4-corners region today will shift
east into southern plains on Wednesday. This will bring a more south
to southeast flow aloft which will keep enough moisture around for a
slight chance of daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity,
mainly over the mountains, for the rest of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z. Residual debris cloudiness early
this morning across the western deserts, otherwise mostly clear
skies. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will be mainly east of KTUS
this afternoon and evening. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany the -TSRA thru the period. Otherwise, expect few to
scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl with scattered to broken clouds
above 25k ft msl. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts,
although occasional gusts to 20 kts should occur this afternoon due
to strong heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week. Gusty
outflow winds may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise...20-ft winds will be breezy during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime
heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
840 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
First full day of summer (Summer Solstice occurred yesterday
afternoon) starting off with more mild AM temperatures for most lower
desert elevation locales, in spite of the increased dewpoints and
humidities. Dewpoints are up anywhere from 6 to 9 degrees higher this
AM than last. Morning satellite imagery depicts a disorganized
inverted wave transitioning into the Gulf of CA with showers
dissipating. Lightning activity associated with the storms along this
wave has dropped off over the last few hours and along with slightly
warming cloud tops, think storm activity is all but done in the
proximity of this wave. Streamline analysis back over northern Mexico
points to another inverted wave over south-central New
Mexico/Chihuahua that should provide some support to any activity
that develops over the far eastern AZ mountains later in the
afternoon during typical peak heating. KPSR AM sounding does not have
much by way of CAPE, even any elevated pockets, so thinking if any
outflows travel into the lower desert elevations last like evening
from distant convection or along the latest inverted wave, only some
midlevel cloudiness will result. Simulated satellite imagery
maintains a return of mid-level clouds across the area today
capitalizing on the elevated thin moisture layer generally AOA
500mb/approx 17500ft. Only minor grid adjustments to hourly sky
cover and temperatures needed to match current trends, otherwise very
low-grade early Monsoon-like forecast package will continue with the
persistent excessive heat and afternoon showers/thunderstorms over
the Rim/eastern mountains.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Tue, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Tue to 03z Wed, sct-bkn
clouds aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Wed, sct-bkn clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... A strong high pressure system will
continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region providing a
slight chance of afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms mainly
over southern Gila County. Due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 12
percent. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the
10 to 25 mph range are expected each day. Good overnight recovery is
expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions on Tuesday...about 10 degrees above normal. An
increase in moisture is expected across northern Arizona...which
is bringing clouds which keeps the daytime highs a few degrees
cooler. High based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the
mountain areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger
across east central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for
a few thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up
over the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen
over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure is forecast over the four
corners area again today. At the same time a subtropical airmass
will be moving west underneath the high pressure ridge. This
airmass is cooler and more moist...and this airmass is forecast to
persist through Thursday...and then get pushed southeast as the
next low pressure trough enters the western U.S. on Friday. The
low pressure trough will bring a drying WSW flow and a reduction in
afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms from 18Z today through 06Z Wednesday, with the best
chances in the White Mountains. Probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms this afternoon across
much of the higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty
winds would likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...CLM
FIRE WEATHER...CLM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to hot conditions on Tuesday...about 10 degrees above normal. An
increase in moisture is expected across northern Arizona...which
is bringing clouds which keeps the daytime highs a few degrees
cooler. High based showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the
mountain areas today and Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger
across east central Arizona Thursday and Friday with chances for
a few thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warming back up
over the weekend when the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen
over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure is forecast over the four
corners area again today. At the same time a subtropical airmass
will be moving west underneath the high pressure ridge. This
airmass is cooler and more moist...and this airmass is forecast to
persist through Thursday...and then get pushed southeast as the
next low pressure trough enters the western U.S. on Friday. The
low pressure trough will bring a drying WSW flow and a reduction in
afternoon thunderstorms.
By Saturday...the low pressure trough will have moved east of
northern Arizona and the high pressure ridge will have re-
established itself along the southern California coast. By Sunday
the high pressure ridge is forecast to expand east over Arizona.
Rising 500 mb heights will bring back the hot daytime temperatures
and dry conditions going into at least Monday of next week. Some
limited amounts of subtropical moisture is forecast to push into
portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties by next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms from 18Z today through 06Z Wednesday, with the best
chances in the White Mountains. Probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of high-based storms this afternoon across
much of the higher terrain today and tomorrow. Erratic and gusty
winds would likely accompany any showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the area
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...CLM
FIRE WEATHER...CLM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
325 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Tue, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Tue to 03z Wed, sct-bkn
clouds aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Wed, sct-bkn clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... A strong high pressure system will
continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region providing a
slight chance of afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms mainly
over southern Gila County. Due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 12
percent. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the
10 to 25 mph range are expected each day. Good overnight recovery is
expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
325 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 19z Tue, sct clds aoa 18 thsd msl. light south to
southeast wind under 7 knots. From 19z Tue to 03z Wed, sct-bkn
clouds aoa 18 thsd msl. Increasing southwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong high pressure system will continue over the region the next
several days, however periods of mid and upper level cloudiness are
expected. Through 03z Wed, sct-bkn clds aoa 18 thsd msl. South to
southwest wind 6 to 12 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... A strong high pressure system will
continue the unseasonably warm heat wave through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Low
level moisture from Mexico will seep into the region providing a
slight chance of afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms mainly
over southern Gila County. Due to the extremely warm afternoon
temperatures minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 12
percent. Enhanced afternoon southwest winds or upslope winds in the
10 to 25 mph range are expected each day. Good overnight recovery is
expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
324 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Increasing moisture across eastern Arizona has led to expansive mid
and high clouds across the area and should stick around to some
degree through the overnight hours. A weakening outflow coming off
the high terrain east of Phoenix will likely affect the KIWA later
this evening and possibly even KPHX, but confidence is not high
enough to add into the KPHX. Any residual shower or thunderstorm
activity this evening will skirt by to the south of the Phoenix area,
but we can`t rule out a few virga showers over the metro area before
midnight. Winds otherwise should mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. Another round of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain east of Phoenix may again bring a shot of outflow winds into
the Phoenix area terminals Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
An increase in moisture from the south will keep high scattered to
broken clouds aoa 15kft through the period. Winds will remain
elevated at both KIPL and KBLH and favor a southerly directional
component through Tuesday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Very warm temperatures will persist through the period. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the region, with slight chances
for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing over the
mountains of southern Gila County each day. Due to the extremely warm
afternoon temperatures minimum relative humidities will still stay
around 5 to 15 percent with good overnight recoveries. Outside of any
gusty erratic storm winds, winds should follow typical diurnal
directional trends and remain primarily around 5 to 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
324 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. The above normal temperatures will persist through next week
as high pressure becomes re-established across the desert southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a disorganized inverted trough
across northern Sonora while the Monsoon high is positioned near the
Four Corners. In response to the extreme heat and instability Monday
afternoon, convection did develop across eastern Arizona during the
early evening. Conditions were generally too dry for rainfall at the
surface, however a few in-cloud lightning flashes were observed in
the Phoenix area during the evening. Showers and thunderstorms
continue at this hour across northern portions of the GOC and debris
clouds are widespread, which is trapping outgoing infrared radiation,
resulting in well-above normal overnight temperatures. Record high
minimum of 89 degrees in Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.
Latest hi-res simulated satellite imagery indicates that mid and
high clouds will persist during the day, cutting down on insolation.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS show a weakening anticyclone with extreme
percentiles rapidly receding across the region. Latest raw and post-
processed guidance continues to trend cooler for today and forecast
temperatures were lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, above normal
temperatures will continue, though highs will be well short of
records. Excessive Heat Warning will continue today, mainly due to
the very warm conditions this morning and Wednesday morning. In terms
of the potential for storms, CAMs are in good agreement that the best
chance will be across eastern Arizona, with only a slight chance
across eastern Gila County this evening.
Increasing southwesterly flow around the southern US anticyclone will
lead to slightly drier and consequently warmer conditions Wednesday,
particularly across southeastern CA. In terms of sensible weather, little
day-to-day change is then expected through early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal with below normal precipitation
chances. Latest NAEFS ensemble members indicate that another
anomalously strong anticyclone will build across Arizona early next
week, likely resulting in a return to well-above normal
temperatures. ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement, while also
exhibiting low normalized standard deviations.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 21115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Increasing moisture across eastern Arizona has led to expansive mid
and high clouds across the area and should stick around to some
degree through the overnight hours. A weakening outflow coming off
the high terrain east of Phoenix will likely affect the KIWA later
this evening and possibly even KPHX, but confidence is not high
enough to add into the KPHX. Any residual shower or thunderstorm
activity this evening will skirt by to the south of the Phoenix area,
but we can`t rule out a few virga showers over the metro area before
midnight. Winds otherwise should mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. Another round of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain east of Phoenix may again bring a shot of outflow winds into
the Phoenix area terminals Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
An increase in moisture from the south will keep high scattered to
broken clouds aoa 15kft through the period. Winds will remain
elevated at both KIPL and KBLH and favor a southerly directional
component through Tuesday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Very warm temperatures will persist through the period. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the region, with slight chances
for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing over the
mountains of southern Gila County each day. Due to the extremely warm
afternoon temperatures minimum relative humidities will still stay
around 5 to 15 percent with good overnight recoveries. Outside of any
gusty erratic storm winds, winds should follow typical diurnal
directional trends and remain primarily around 5 to 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Hot daytime temperatures will continue into early next
week. There will also be just enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery was showing a few lingering
showers near Ajo in western Pima county, and moving west toward the
Colorado River. Otherwise, satellite imagery was showing clearing
skies east of there around Tucson and Safford. An increase in
moisture from yesterday along with daytime heating will result in
more afternoon cloudiness and a few thunderstorms today. This will
help lower daytime temperatures several degrees, but staying above
normal as an upper high remains centered over the four corners.
Model solutions shift the upper high to a position centered over the
southern Plains by Thursday. This will result in a more south to
southeasterly flow which will help maintain enough moisture across
the area for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The best
chance of rainfall will be in the mountains the next several days,
but cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm or two moving into the
valleys. Daytime temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal as high pressure aloft influences the weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z. Residual debris cloudiness early
this morning across the western deserts, otherwise mostly clear
skies. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will be mainly east of KTUS
this afternoon and evening. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany the -TSRA thru the period. Otherwise, expect few to
scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl with scattered to broken clouds
above 25k ft msl. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts,
although occasional gusts to 20 kts should occur this afternoon due
to strong heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week. Gusty
outflow winds may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise...20-ft winds will be breezy during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime
heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
902 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure sprawling across the southern United
States will bring unusually hot weather to the area with lower
elevation locations reaching highs generally between 110 and 115
degrees. A combined increase in moisture and cloud cover may
periodically yield slightly cooler temperatures and isolated
thunderstorms over higher terrain through the middle of the week.
Primarily dry weather will return to the region for the latter half
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Very strong upper level high pressure system remains situated across
the region, generally centered over the Four Corners region.
Widespread high temperatures above 115F affected the lower deserts
today which included a high of 124F in Blythe setting the all time
record warmest for the site. A shift in the winds aloft to an
easterly component over the southern 2/3 of Arizona has allowed for a
modest moisture increase across at least much of eastern Arizona and
areas slightly further westward. With the moisture increase (PWAT of
0.81 in via KTWC 00z raob) and the very hot temperatures, scattered
showers and thunderstorms affected higher terrain areas of eastern
Arizona this afternoon and early evening. Though the activity has
diminished considerably since 8 pm we may still see a few light
showers over Pinal County into the late evening. I made some minor
edits to PoPs and sky cover to match current trends, but the rest of
the forecast looks to be on track.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
An expansive and anomalously intense H5 ridge remains stretched
across essentially the entire southern Conus from northeast Arizona
through the Upper Ohio River Valley. The 12Z KTWC sounding once again
sampled daily record H5 heights (597dm) and H7/H8 temperatures
(+18.4C and +30.6C respectively) while KPSR 12Z sounding was even
slightly warmer aloft (+19.2C and +32.2C at H7 and H8). Objective
analysis indicates the core of the thermal ridge aloft shifting from
northern CA through SE CA this morning while a thermal sfc low has
become established near the Lower Colorado River.
These synoptic pressure fields have forced extensive southeast flow
through much of the forecast area (primarily the southern half)
and a modified Gulf surge through the Yuma/El Centro area while
deeper moisture profiles have advected westward across
the continental divide of New Mexico into the White Mountains.
The modest moisture infusion in the H7-H5 layer coincident with
nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates has resulted in MUCape near 500 J/kg
and deeper convection has materialized southeast of Show Low. High
resolution convective models and conceptual thinking suggests semi-
organized thunderstorms rolling into Gila county this afternoon and
evening before outrunning the better moisture and slowly
deteriorating at lower elevations.
Very interesting forecast tonight and Tuesday as upper divergence,
residual H5 moisture, and very steep lapse rates progress westward
across the forecast area. Interrogation of NAM Bufr soundings
indicates weak ascent within a small saturated layer while 9 C/km
lapse rates aloft yield MUCapes near 200 J/kg overnight. Many
global and high resolution models output QPF with a convective
response; and feel this situation is an excellent example of
numerous towering accas towers, very isolated storms, and extensive
virga and cloud cover through much of central and southwest AZ.
Kept pops somewhat muted as compared to numerical output, and would
not be surprised if several lightning strikes are noted around lower
elevations despite a lack of rainfall.
One consequence of this convection will likely be more extensive
cloud cover Tuesday resulting in warmer overnight lows and cooler
afternoon highs. Best performing guidance has started to indicate
Tuesday highs several degrees cooler, and have weighted more raw
guidance into the forecast. While this would bring afternoon
temperatures below what is traditionally considered heat warning
criteria, conditions will warm again Wednesday and Thursday (not to
mention the elevated overnight lows). Models are in very good
agreement with respect to temperatures aloft lowering slightly
Wednesday and Thursday, while the H5 pressure ridge descends
equatorward towards the international border. As a result, flow
aloft becomes more westerly deflecting moisture east of the forecast
area; and despite the lower heights, eventual afternoon highs may
end up exceeding those of Tuesday. As a result, have extended the
heat warning for the Phoenix metro through Thursday with some
likelihood other parts of SW AZ/SE CA will be included in this
extension in future forecast updates.
Friday through Sunday...
A bit more cooling and drying of the airmass is likely during this
period as the flow aloft becomes more westerly as a upper trof moves
inland into the Pac NW. However, temperatures will likely remain
above normal, in the 108-113 range across the lower deserts as 500mb
heights remain mainly in the 592-595dm range.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on June 19 2016
5) 118 on several days 120 on Aug 27 1981
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Increasing moisture across eastern Arizona has led to expansive mid
and high clouds across the area and should stick around to some
degree through the overnight hours. A weakening outflow coming off
the high terrain east of Phoenix will likely affect the KIWA later
this evening and possibly even KPHX, but confidence is not high
enough to add into the KPHX. Any residual shower or thunderstorm
activity this evening will skirt by to the south of the Phoenix area,
but we can`t rule out a few virga showers over the metro area before
midnight. Winds otherwise should mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. Another round of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain east of Phoenix may again bring a shot of outflow winds into
the Phoenix area terminals Tuesday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
An increase in moisture from the south will keep high scattered to
broken clouds aoa 15kft through the period. Winds will remain
elevated at both KIPL and KBLH and favor a southerly directional
component through Tuesday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Very warm temperatures will persist through the period. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the region, with slight chances
for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing over the
mountains of southern Gila County each day. Due to the extremely warm
afternoon temperatures minimum relative humidities will still stay
around 5 to 15 percent with good overnight recoveries. Outside of any
gusty erratic storm winds, winds should follow typical diurnal
directional trends and remain primarily around 5 to 15 mph with some
afternoon gustiness.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>022-
025>028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ023.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/Percha
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to very hot conditions on Tuesday. An increase in moisture is
expected across northern Arizona. High based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain areas on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east central Arizona
on Thursday and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms mainly
each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Some light shower activity continues this evening,
primarily south of Interstate 40. This shower activity is
expected to decrease through the overnight hours. Of note, around
440 pm mst today, a thunderstorm near Snowflake interacted with an
outflow boundary to briefly spin up a tornado. The tornado was
confirmed by a couple weather spotters in the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...A strong high pressure ridge will
continue to produce hot afternoon temperatures on Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool by several degrees each day as the ridge
moves southeast and lower Pacific air moves into the state. Due to
the lower temperature trends we removed the Excessive Heat Warning
for Tuesday as the afternoon high temperatures will be lower than
our warning impacts guidance permits. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be hot enough for continued plume dominated fires and pyrocumulus
development by the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm motion on Tuesday
will be westward around 5 to 10 mph with outflow driven winds
north of the Mogollon Rim.
An upper level trough located in southwestern New Mexico will
continue to move westward under the ridge axis causing
southeasterly flow to advect higher moisture amounts up into
Arizona. Expect isolated to scattered high based showers and
thunderstorm each day through Wednesday. The main impacts will be
additional lightning strikes initiating new fires and erratic
gusty winds up to 40 mph near thunderstorms.
On Thursday and Friday the ridge retreats southeastward and drier
Pacific southwesterly flow moves into the region. This air moving
into Arizona from the southwest will bring drier trends to the
state as a mid latitude trough moves into the west coast.
By Saturday and Sunday the high pressure ridge builds into the
western states once again. Expect continued dry weather conditions
with a return to hot afternoon temperature trends with light to
breezy winds through the upcoming weekend. Confidence is strong in
the return of hot and dry weather conditions on into the first
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Some light shower activity
continues this evening, primarily south of interstate 40. This
shower activity is expected to decrease through the overnight
hours. In addition, smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact
visibility at times. The chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will spread northwestward on Tuesday, including KGCN
and KFLG terminals though probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...chances for high-based storms will spread
northwest into much of the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Erratic and gusty winds would likely accompany any
showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the
area for a chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across northern Arizona will lead
to very hot conditions on Tuesday. An increase in moisture is
expected across northern Arizona. High based showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over the mountain areas on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Enough moisture will linger across east central Arizona
on Thursday and Friday with chances for a few thunderstorms mainly
each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Some light shower activity continues this evening,
primarily south of Interstate 40. This shower activity is
expected to decrease through the overnight hours. Of note, around
440 pm mst today, a thunderstorm near Snowflake interacted with an
outflow boundary to briefly spin up a tornado. The tornado was
confirmed by a couple weather spotters in the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...A strong high pressure ridge will
continue to produce hot afternoon temperatures on Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool by several degrees each day as the ridge
moves southeast and lower Pacific air moves into the state. Due to
the lower temperature trends we removed the Excessive Heat Warning
for Tuesday as the afternoon high temperatures will be lower than
our warning impacts guidance permits. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be hot enough for continued plume dominated fires and pyrocumulus
development by the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm motion on Tuesday
will be westward around 5 to 10 mph with outflow driven winds
north of the Mogollon Rim.
An upper level trough located in southwestern New Mexico will
continue to move westward under the ridge axis causing
southeasterly flow to advect higher moisture amounts up into
Arizona. Expect isolated to scattered high based showers and
thunderstorm each day through Wednesday. The main impacts will be
additional lightning strikes initiating new fires and erratic
gusty winds up to 40 mph near thunderstorms.
On Thursday and Friday the ridge retreats southeastward and drier
Pacific southwesterly flow moves into the region. This air moving
into Arizona from the southwest will bring drier trends to the
state as a mid latitude trough moves into the west coast.
By Saturday and Sunday the high pressure ridge builds into the
western states once again. Expect continued dry weather conditions
with a return to hot afternoon temperature trends with light to
breezy winds through the upcoming weekend. Confidence is strong in
the return of hot and dry weather conditions on into the first
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Some light shower activity
continues this evening, primarily south of interstate 40. This
shower activity is expected to decrease through the overnight
hours. In addition, smoke downwind of area wildfires may impact
visibility at times. The chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will spread northwestward on Tuesday, including KGCN
and KFLG terminals though probability is too low to include in
TAFs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...chances for high-based storms will spread
northwest into much of the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Erratic and gusty winds would likely accompany any
showers or storms.
Thursday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Enough moisture will continue to creep around the
area for a chance of afternoon/evening storms Thursday, then
mainly along the AZ/NM border Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RR/Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Hot daytime temperatures will continue into early next
week. There will also be just enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D detected scattered 35-55 dBZ echoes
extending from just north of Tucson northward into southeast Pinal
County. There is mostly virga associated with these echoes, although
a hundredth-or-two may ultimately be measured. Am somewhat surprised
that no wind gusts of significance were reported with the showers
and thunderstorms that developed earlier this afternoon and
continued into early this evening. A wind gust of 35 mph was
recorded via the Black Hills RAWS just prior to 7 pm MST, however.
Based on several HRRR solutions as well as satellite/radar trends,
have updated the official forecast to include a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms the rest of tonight west-to-northwest of
Tucson. Water vapor satellite imagery suggests the presence of a
cyclonic twist representing a vort max over nern Sonora that will
move into far sern sections during the next few hours. Synoptic-
scale ascent and a marginally unstable environment ahead of this
system suggests the potential for a few showers/tstms to continue
during the next several hours. Any rainfall should be quite light,
with just a few hundredths of an inch expected to occur at best. Any
precip should end by daybreak Tuesday.
Please refer to the previous sections for additional detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly west-to-north of KTUS ending around
daybreak Tuesday. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of
KTUS Tuesday afternoon and evening. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts
may accompany the -TSRA thru the period. Otherwise, expect a few to
scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft msl with scattered to broken clouds
above 25k ft msl. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts,
although occasional gusts to 20 kts should occur Tuesday afternoon
due to strong heating. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...There will be enough moisture for a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into early next week. Gusty
outflow winds may accompany any convection which develops.
Otherwise...20-ft winds will be breezy during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime
heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /229 PM MST/...Models depict the high remaining in
the same general location as the inverted trough undercuts the ridge
and moves fromeast to west across Mexico and into the eastern
Pacific throughTuesday. The 12Z U of A WRF/NAM & GFS are depicting
isolatedthunderstorm development along the Mogollon rim and the
Whitemountains, as well as parts of Santa Cruz county this afternoon
andevening. Similar development Tuesday but affecting parts of
Graham, Pinal and Pima counties as well, but still only isolated in
natureand mostly over the mountains.
By Wednesday, the high will generally be located over the southern
plains, with southerly flow on the western flank of the ridge
allowing for a continuation of moisture transport with most of the
thunderstorm develop over the mountains. Through late in the week
and through the weekend the ridge will extend west to east across
parts of the deserts southwest and into the southern plains with
lingering moisture to our south and east, thus keeping a small
threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon
and evening with only slight day to day variations and with the best
potential for storms to occur over the mountains from Tucson
eastward.
For Tucson, high temperatures will generally range from 4 to 6 degs
above normal each day. Low temperatures will be around 8 to 10 degs
above normal Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, then 5 to 7 degs above
normal thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions
that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was
present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing
eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered
over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward
into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should
help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front
eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the
cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early
afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon
with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to
Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient
is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In
fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending
from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this
afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high
temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend
on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs
expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest
temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher
850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha,
in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105
degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas
this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints
(possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA
during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint
temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast
Kansas.
Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight
across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by
Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as
soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some
low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit
how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds
behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east
central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a
location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central
Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak
upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the
front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms.
Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on
areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a
wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be
ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across
eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the
area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern
Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to
develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS
that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to
remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then
moves southeast across much of the area into east central or
southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the
atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems
in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There
could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on
timing and location so confidence remains on the low side.
Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday
the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in
the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central
Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
LLWS concerns will diminish this morning as southerly winds
quickly increase with gusts of 25-30kts through this afternoon. As
a cold front sags southward across the area this evening, winds
will shift to the north overnight into Thursday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold
front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM
were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day
than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to
agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around
Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air
is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary
and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS
late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101
degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid
to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will
not stray far from this.
Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal
boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast
to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will
be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms
will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not
high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating
so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small
chances west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the
western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level
trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the
Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there
will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing
across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface
boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the
timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving
chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better
opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the
timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return,
improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor
undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover
and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon.
Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday
night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north
will begin favor the better chances for convection across western
Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off
from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday.
Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level
trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will
favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday,
especially in far western Kansas.
Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the
Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south
into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with
this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains.
At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across
western Kansas will be Saturday night.
For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be
trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a
northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and
northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing
northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains
through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least
a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight
chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it
also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal
levels for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Light southwesterly winds will turn north-northeast 10 to
20kt this afternoon as a weak cold front moves slowly southeast
across western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 71 92 70 / 10 10 30 30
GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 99 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40
LBL 102 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30
HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50
P28 102 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific air moving into Arizona from the west will
produce a drying trend heading into the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish through Sunday with low
chances lingering over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountain regions.
More favorable moisture conditions will return early next week,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to trend higher. Temperatures
will remain above normal for June.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge continues to retreat eastward
and a short wave trough moves onto the west coast. This pattern
change places Arizona in dry westerly flow causing convective
activity to diminish across the state through Sunday. However
there will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and
thunderstorms in the White Mountains and portions of the Mogollon
Rim region each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Another branch of the subtropical
ridge will move up into Arizona by Monday with the high center
setting up near the four corners region on Tuesday. This ridge
orientation will allow moisture to advect northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Expect low chances for high based showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon mainly over mountain areas through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Smoke downwind of area wildfires
may impact visibility at times. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns should decrease after
sunset. Strong gusty wind potential from storm outflows will be the
main threat. Drier air on Thursday will limit the slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA to the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air aloft will limit the slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Erratic and strong gusty winds are likely with
any showers or storms. Temperatures remaining well above normal.
Saturday through Monday...Daytime temperatures will remain well
above normal. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the
White Mountains with otherwise dry conditions through Sunday, then
moisture could start to spread northwestward by Monday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Above average daytime temperatures will continue into
the upcoming weekend. There will also be enough moisture for a daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially south and east of
Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water values holding around 1" across the
area this afternoon with dewpoints mostly in the 40s. Radar pretty
quiet as of 230 pm with only isolated activity across SW Cochise
county. The afternoon HRRR runs are focusing isolated storms this
evening across the southern half of Cochise county. Afternoon
temperatures running at or slightly warmer than Tuesday.
Thursday...not much change in amount of precipitable water being
around so expect isolated storms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson. Highs at or slightly cooler than today.
Friday and Saturday...these days look to be rather active especially
east and south of Tucson. I have increased PoPs for these areas but
still may not be high enough. Daily highs will run several degrees
cooler versus Thursday.
Sunday into next week...the upper high sets up shop around the 4-
corners providing a E-SE flow aloft over the area. Isolated to
scattered As was the case yesterday, the GFS model running hotter
than the ECMWF. At this time will keep highs 2-4 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT clouds around 10-15k ft AGL with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA during the
afternoon/evening today and Thursday, mainly near terrain from
KOLS/KTUS EWD to the NM border. Brief wind gusts of 35-40 kts may
accompany convection. Otherwise, SFC wind WLY/NWLY around 12 kts
with a few higher gusts into this evening, lessening after sunset.
Terrain-driven winds overnight at less than 10 kts increasing late
Thursday morning out of the W/NW at 12-15 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal daytime temperatures will continue
this week. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms into early next week, especially over the
higher terrain east/southeast of Tucson. Gusty outflow winds to 45
mph may accompany any convection which develops. Otherwise, 20-foot
winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon and early evening
hours each day in conjunction with the peak daytime heating. Daytime
relative humidity will hover near 15 percent each day with fair to
good overnight recoveries.
&&
.CLIMATE...A fun climate tidbit. The high at the Tucson airport
hit 105 degrees or greater for the 5th straight day. Since 1895,
this is the 99th time that the official spot in Tucson has recorded
5 consecutive days or more with highs 105 degrees or greater.
Over a third of these streaks have occurred since 2000.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
The main focus for the short term is on the hot and humid conditions
that are expected today. Early this morning a short-wave trough was
present over the Dakotas, with models showing this wave advancing
eastward into Minnesota through the day. A surface low was centered
over the SD/NE border with an associated front extending southward
into far western Kansas. The advancing short-wave trough should
help to move the area of low pressure and associated cold front
eastward through the day. Models are in decent agreement with the
cold front advancing into north central Kansas by late morning/early
afternoon but will not shift much to the east during the afternoon
with models showing the front extending from roughly Abilene to
Manhattan to Hiawatha by early evening. A decent pressure gradient
is expected ahead of this front, resulting in southerly winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph which will aid in warm-air advection. In
fact, models show a nose of 26C to 28C 850mb temperatures extending
from southwest to northeast across the center of the CWA by this
afternoon. These forecast 850mb temperatures combined with how high
temperatures rose yesterday have resulted in us continuing to trend
on the high-end of guidance for temperatures today, with highs
expected to top out in the 96 to 105 degree range. The highest
temperatures are expected to be focused along that nose of higher
850mb temperatures, extending from Abilene to Manhattan to Hiawatha,
in which high temperatures will likely reach into the 100 to 105
degree range. As the cold front advances into north central Kansas
this afternoon, models show some pooling of lower dewpoints
(possibly into the lower 60s across the southwest portion of the CWA
during the afternoon). Elsewhere across the CWA, dewpoint
temperatures will likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
With these conditions in place, expect heat indices to soar into the
100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. As a result, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for portions of north central and northeast
Kansas.
Models show the cold front very slowly shifting southward tonight
across the CWA, becoming centered across east central Kansas by
Thursday morning. Have removed any mention of PoPs for tonight as
soundings show little in the way of moisture. However, expect some
low and mid-level clouds to develop overnight, which should limit
how cool temperatures will fall despite the shift to northerly winds
behind the front. As a result, expect low temperatures to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s from northwest to southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
Thursday a frontal boundary is forecast to be located across east
central or southern Kansas during the day. Models seem to favor a
location across the far southern CWA counties westward into central
Kansas. Models move a wave eastward through the day in the weak
upper flow. This feature combined with some convergence along the
front should be enough to develop some scattered thunderstorms.
Northern extent is a question mark at this time, but will focus on
areas south of I-70. Thursday night the front lifts northward as a
wave moves across the northern Rockies. Friday morning there may be
ongoing convection that will be working it`s way eastward across
eastern Kansas. Friday night the model consensus is for much of the
area to remain dry with the upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, and upper level trough will moves across the Northern
Plains and send a cold front southward. Storms are forecast to
develop along the front, then form a southeastward propagating MCS
that will move across the area Saturday night. The front looks to
remain to the northwest of the forecast area Sunday morning, then
moves southeast across much of the area into east central or
southeast Kansas. Convection will be possible late Sunday if the
atmosphere is able to recover. Models differ with timing of systems
in the northwest flow across the Plains Monday and Tuesday. There
could be another nocturnal MCS Monday night, but models differ on
timing and location so confidence remains on the low side.
Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the period. Saturday
the thermal axis sets up ahead of the front and will see highs in
the mid or upper 90s across parts of north central and central
Kansas as 850 mb temps approach 25C in the afternoon. Lows mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
continue to be gusty at 20-25 knots through the early evening.
Winds will shift to the north and northeast while decreasing to
5-10 knots overnight.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Continued above normal temperatures and periodic thunderstorm
chances will highlight the next 7 days.
Breezy...sunny and hot weather expected today, as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Like yesterday, dewpoints should
remain in check given drier southwesterly low-level flow, so most
heat indices should remain below 105 degrees. However, like
yesterday localized downslope component to wind should allow
Salina`s temperature to reach around 105 degrees, with heat
indices 105-108 degrees, so will hoist a heat advisory today for
Saline county. Additionally, given decent 1000-850mb
frontogenesis, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm
late this afternoon and evening generally along/north of a Great
Bend to Salina line. However, suspect minimal upper forcing and
modest convective inhibition will likely preclude most if not all
thunderstorm activity from forming at all. Same goes for tonight,
as an increasingly veered out low-level jet should prevent
anything more than very isolated activity at best.
Expect a slight increase in thunderstorm chances Thursday
afternoon and night, as low-level moisture pools along the stalled
frontal zone somewhere across central to southern KS. Activity may
also be aided by a convectively induced mid/upper disturbance
approaching from the west...of which both the NAM and GFS have
been forecasting the past few days. Relatively weak shear and
forcing should preclude widespread severe weather. Depending on
how fast the frontal zone washes out, slight chances for storms
could linger into Friday.
Given the potential for decreased mixing and increased clouds,
temperatures should be a tad cooler Thu-Fri, although still above
normal for this time of year.
Kleinsasser
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Expecting thunderstorm chances to re-enter the forecast Saturday
evening/night over central KS, as another cold front emanating
from a strong northern CONUS upper trough approaches the region
from the northwest. Slightly better upper forcing expected with
this feature as it gives Kansas a glancing blow to the north, so
expecting modest thunderstorm chances Saturday evening/night,
persisting into Sunday night. Even though widespread severe
weather is not expected, somewhat stronger 500-250mb flow may
support a slightly more organized severe weather event compared to
Thursday afternoon/night.
GFS ensemble members along with the ECMWF, operational GFS and
GEM support a retrograding mid/upper ridge next week, possibly as
far west as the Great Basin. This will allow the stronger belt of
mid/upper westerlies and associated frontal zone to become
established further south/southwest over the Kansas and Mid-
America region, supporting the potential for periodic thunderstorm
chances from Monday night on, along with somewhat cooler
temperatures through the week, with 80s possible by mid-late week.
Kleinsasser
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
A cold front will continue to move south across central and
into southeast Kansas through this evening and overnight. The
atmosphere is expected to remain capped along the front so will
keep the terminals convection free. This will change as we go
into Thursday as the front stalls out across southern Kansas.
However will only mention VCSH at KRSL for now during the late
morning, with better chances for convection holding off until
after the forecast valid period late Thursday.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 101 76 96 75 / 0 10 20 30
Hutchinson 102 73 93 74 / 10 10 30 40
Newton 101 74 92 74 / 0 10 30 40
ElDorado 100 74 94 73 / 0 10 30 40
Winfield-KWLD 100 76 97 75 / 0 10 20 20
Russell 99 71 90 72 / 10 10 30 40
Great Bend 101 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40
Salina 105 74 92 74 / 10 10 30 40
McPherson 103 73 93 73 / 10 10 30 40
Coffeyville 98 77 96 74 / 0 0 20 20
Chanute 98 76 94 74 / 0 10 20 30
Iola 97 75 93 73 / 0 10 20 30
Parsons-KPPF 98 76 95 74 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Dry and not as hot today with a possibility of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms late each afternoon and overnight hours
through the end of the work week.
The broad high pressure area remains aloft over the southern U.S.
with westerly flow across the northern states expected to bring a
series of weak disturbances east of the Rockies and across the
plains states late each day. These disturbance appear to be
artifacts of the convection that forms on the higher terrain each
afternoon that subsequently moves east over the plains before
dissipating.
A cold front moves across the forecast area today, keeping high
temperatures nearly 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in some
locations across far eastern Colorado. Temperatures across the
western portions of the forecast area will be near normal for this
time of year while the eastern sections, while not as hot as
yesterday, will remain a few degrees above average.
With the cold front expected to be south of the forecast area and
storms expected to move off the Rockies and across the plains
later today, should see isolated thunderstorms move across the
southern extent of the forecast area this evening. Storms should
continue to transition across the southern sections overnight
with a few storms possibly remaining across the southeast
sections early Thursday morning.
The front that moved through the forecast area on Wednesday will
move back north into the the area on Thursday, providing a focus
for thunderstorms development during the afternoon and evening
hours with storms moving off to the east by early Friday morning.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms with isolated severe
hail and wind expected.
Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected
late Friday and Friday night as another trough/front moves into
the area Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Chances for thunderstorms persist through the majority of
the extended period. On Saturday, an upper low deepens as it travels
east over the northern Plains from Montana towards the Dakotas. The
cold front trailing this system looks to move through the region
late Saturday (slower than previous guidance). Thunderstorms are
forecast for the afternoon into Saturday night. At this time, better
potential for severe weather appears to be northeast of the area
where healthier instability and shear are located. Will continue to
monitor in upcoming days.
High pressure pushes into the High Plains behind the front as it
moves south, bringing drier conditions to the region on Sunday. The
upper low continues eastward from the Northern Plains and ridging
builds over the western CONUS. As the upper trough departs and
ridging builds to the west, northwest flow develops aloft early next
week. Passing disturbances generate thunderstorm chances across the
forecast area Monday and Tuesday, with slightly higher chances on
Tuesday when better moisture returns to the region.
The warmest temperatures during the extended appear to be on
Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Slightly "cooler"
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are anticipated Sunday
through Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
winds will continue to be gusty through this afternoon in the wake
of and earlier cold frontal passage. Winds will subside by sunset
at both locations.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Models remain in good agreement for today with moving a cold
front into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The ARW and NMM
were slightly further south with this frontal boundary by late day
than the RAP and NAM. Despite these differences they all tend to
agree with the frontal boundary by 21z extending from around
Elkhart to near or just south of Great Bend. A wedge of warm air
is forecast to be located along and ahead of this frontal boundary
and by using the mixed level height forecast by the NAM and GFS
late today then highs south of this front will climb around 101
degrees. North of this front highs are expected to be in the mid
to upper 90s. The previous shift had a good handle of this so will
not stray far from this.
Convection this evening still appears low along this frontal
boundary given the warm mid level temperatures that are forecast
to be located over southwest Kansas. The better opportunity will
be in eastern Colorado but it does not appear that these storms
will move far into western Kansas early tonight. Confidence is not
high on how far these storms will move tonight before dissipating
so am leaning towards stay with persistence on location of small
chances west of highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
On Thursday as one weak upper level disturbance crosses the
western Kansas early in the day another, strong, upper level
trough will begin to exit the Rockies and start to move into the
Central Plains. As this next upper level system approaches there
will be improving moisture and warm air advection developing
across western Kansas which will be just north of the surface
boundary. As the mid levels cool during the day and given the
timing of this next upper level trough there will be improving
chances for convection during the afternoon, however the better
opportunity for convection will be Thursday night based on the
timing of the upper wave along with the better moisture return,
improving lift, and instability. Will continue to favor
undercutting guidance on Thursday given the expected cloud cover
and 850mb temperatures from the NAM and GFS during the afternoon.
Model do lift the warm front northward late Thursday and Thursday
night as this next upper level trough crosses the central Plains.
Based on timing of the upper wave and warm front lifting north
will begin favor the better chances for convection across western
Kansas early Thursday night and then taper the precipitation off
from southwest to northeast late Thursday night/early Friday.
Given the clearing skies Friday afternoon behind the upper level
trough and warming indicated in the 900mb to 850mb level will
favor highs slightly warm than those expected on Thursday,
especially in far western Kansas.
Over the weekend period an upper level trough will cross the
Northern Plains which will allow a cold front to drop back south
into southwest Kansas. Convection will once again be possible with
this frontal passage as the upper level trough crosses the Plains.
At this time it appears the better opportunity convection across
western Kansas will be Saturday night.
For the first part of next week an upper high appears to be
trying to redevelop over the southwest United States and a
northwest flow will be establishing itself across the central and
northern plains. Multiple upper waves embedded in this developing
northwest flow is then forecast to move across the central plains
through early next week which continues to favor keeping at least
a chance for thunderstorms going each day. In addition to slight
chance or chance for precipitation each day early next week it
also looks like temperatures will fall back to more seasonal
levels for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016
Cold frontal boundary sliding through SW KS this afternoon with a
shift to N/NE surface winds. Although there is instability and
moisture convergence associated with this boundary, 700 mb
temperatures appear to be too warm to support TSRA development.
Kept TAFs dry through this evening with increasing midlayer cloud
and NE winds. -TSRA most likely in SE Colorado and near EHA this
evening, with perhaps an isolated storm near/west of GCK. Limited
impacts if any this evening. Convective impacts to aviation
expected to increase on Thursday, as instability and storm
coverage increase.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101 71 92 70 / 0 10 30 30
GCK 98 71 91 67 / 10 20 30 50
EHA 100 70 91 68 / 10 20 30 40
LBL 103 71 94 71 / 10 20 30 30
HYS 96 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 50
P28 102 74 95 74 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner