Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/21/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Camden AR 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
Harrison AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
Monticello AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Newport AR 75 93 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10
Russellville AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
Stuttgart AR 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
735 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 735 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
The frontal boundary has pushed south out of the severe
thunderstorm watch area. Because of this, think the risk for
severe storms has diminished in the watch area and have cancelled
it. Considered the possibility for a storm to develop along the
front over northeast KS. Think there is still the possibility and
have left some small POPs in the forecast this evening. But with
the boundary layer beginning to cool, inhibition should be on the
increase. Therefore any storm that were to develop should be
isolated in nature. So the prospects for widespread severe storms
doesn`t justify modifying the watch to include counties further
south. Additionally Corfidi vectors from the 18Z NAM12 suggest
that the multi cell convection over MO should continue to
propagate to the south and east, so chances storms back build west
looks to be small as well. In general the expectation is for
precip chances to dwindle this evening.
There remains the possibility for elevated convection forming
overnight as warm air returns over the frontal boundary. There is
some uncertainty in how for southwest this activity may develop
since there has not been a great push to the boundary as earlier
anticipated. Northeast portions of the forecast area would see the
better chances and the current forecast accounts for this so will
not make any changes to the POPs overnight at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Potential for TS in the terminals appears to be to low to mention
in terminal as storms have failed to initiate along the boundary
so far. Therefore a VFR forecast is expected to persist.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
High pressure from the Ohio Valley west into eastern Kansas will
gradually move off to the east today. A shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and northern Plains will push a frontal
boundary southeast across the Dakotas and into northwest Nebraska by
00Z Monday. The above mentioned shortwave will flatten the ridge as
it moves eastward. This will send the cold front further south
tonight slowly into southern Nebraska late tonight. Convection is
expected to remain north of the Kansas border overnight, so will
continue with a dry forecast. Forecast soundings show mixing from
around 800mb in north central Kansas to around 850mb across
northeast and east central Kansas. This will yield highs in the
lower to middle 90s. Dew points in the mid 60s are expected in the
afternoon hours and will combine with the temps in the 90s to
produce heat indices in the 95 to 102 degree range this afternoon.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
Rather fast upper flow over the northern states and upper high over
the south remains to dominate the these periods. This will keep
above normal temps as the rule with some potential for heat
headlines for multiple, though perhaps not consecutive, periods.
Weak, modified fronts looks to impact the area on at least two
occasions, but precipitation chances remain uncertain.
Initial front and perhaps convective outflow looks to sink into
northern areas Monday afternoon. Even with potential downdraft help,
convergence along the boundary looks weak with general subsidence
over the area. Will keep small chances going, with perhaps an
uptick in coverage in the evening and overnight as a modest low
level jet develops. Elevated lapse rates aren`t very impressive
but CAPE over 1000 J/kg and modest shear could present a minor
severe hail and wind risk. Slight warming ahead of the front
Monday should bring a warmer day, with heat index values likely
breaching 100. Am not confident enough in where outflow could be
and dewpoint specifics for an Advisory yet. Front/outflow should
mix back northeast Tuesday with mid level temps rising into
Wednesday as the weak upper low cutting off near the Pacific
Northwest comes east. Southwest winds increasing ahead of it will
likely make Wednesday the hottest temp day for many areas. Low
level moisture quality questions remain, but Advisory apparent
temp values look possible. Associated Pacific cold front passes
Wednesday night, but the warm temps aloft may keep convection in
check. Better chances look to be in subsequent periods along and
behind the front as it stalls not far south, not too dissimilar
from Monday into Tuesday periods though farther southwest. Models
differ with strength of post-frontal high over the Northern
Plains, but any slight cooling Thursday may not last long.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the 06Z TAF period. Winds will
gradually veer to the south by mid morning and increase to just
above 10kts through mid morning into the afternoon. Chances for
airmass thunderstorms remains too low to mention.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
.Today...
Watching low clouds persist east of turnpike, and suspect that
clouds will continue to increase through daybreak. Some fog
possible west of turnpike due to combo of moist ground and
radiational cooling. Anticipating fair amount of cumulus today
given residual low level moisture, but with lack of forcing and no
MCV or outflow boundaries in the area, chances for storms seems
slim. Temperatures should recover a bit today given less
precipitation, but majority of guidance was not that far from
yesterday maxes.
Tonight-Tuesday:
Little change this period other than temperatures edging up a
couple degrees. Precipitation chances look slim given building
upper ridge and cap. -howerton
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Only minor tweaks to initialization grids. Same basic scenerio is
still expected with upper ridge hanging tough across the southern
half of the conus. GFS is a bit more agressive with shortwave
moving across the northern plains on Thursday and this pushes
surface front considerably further south than the ECMWF. Proximity
of front will and model QPF bias will result in small pops
littered throughout much of the period, but suspect only real
chances will be late Wednesday night through late Thursday night
in Central KS where surface boundary/outflow may get close enough
for storms. Precipitation chances over the southern half looks
slim. Maxes appear to be running cool as well. Nudged maxes up a
degree most days, but would not be surprised if maxes are several
degree warmer than currently forecast based on ECMWF 1000-850
millibar thicknesses. -howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Aviation concern will be some light fog west of I-135 early Sun
morning.
Diurnal storms associated with the MCV died off a couple hours
ago. Some light fog will be possible after 09z west of I-135 due
to light upslope flow and rich moisture remaining in place. For
now just ran with a tempo at KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. At this point am
fairly confident we are not looking at widespread dense fog.
Outside of some early morning fog, confidence is high that VFR
conditions will be in place the remainder of Sun.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 92 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 92 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 92 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
ElDorado 91 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 10
Winfield-KWLD 92 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 95 73 97 72 / 0 0 10 10
Great Bend 94 73 96 72 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 95 73 97 72 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 92 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 90 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 10
Chanute 91 70 95 72 / 10 10 0 10
Iola 91 70 95 72 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 90 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
...Updated short term and long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Today a surface cold front will drop south into Nebraska as an
upper level trough quickly moves east across the northern Plains.
Over the Western High Plains a surface trough of low pressure will
remain nearly stationary over eastern Colorado as the center of an
upper high builds into the Central Rockies. By 00z Monday this
upper high will extend from the Four Corners Region to the Central
Plains. Warm mid level temperatures combined with a slow storm
motion late today suggests that any convection that may develop
along either the surface trough in Colorado or the cold front in
southern Nebraska will stay west and north of southwest Kansas.
As for temperatures today...the net 24 hour 850mb temperature
change from 00z Sunday to 00 Monday indicated a +1 to near +3 warm
up. Based on this along with an southeasterly flow in the 0-1km
level and the highs yesterday will favor the cooler guidance for
highs today. These temperatures were also close to what the 775mb
mix down temperatures suggested from the NAM and GFS. Lows around
70 tonight still looks on track.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
On Monday this surface boundary will drop south into northern
Kansas and is forecast to be near or just north of the I 70
corridor by late day. South of this surface boundary it will be
another warm day with highs climbing back into the mid to upper
90s for all of western and south central Kansas.
Late day convection along and north of this surface boundary will
once again be possible late Monday but at this time the main
question is exactly where this boundary will be at 00z Tuesday.
Models differing some on the location but they all seem to agree
in keeping this boundary north of the i-70 corridor so will
continue to favor a dry forecast late Monday and Monday night.
This surface boundary will then lift north as a warm front and
based on the 850mb and 700mb temperature trends Tuesday and
Wednesday it appears that temperatures climbing back to around 100
degrees will be returning. Heat index readings of 100 to 103 also
are beginning to look more and more likely mid week.
From late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday both the GFS and
ECMWF still tries to bring a cold front into portions of western
Kansas. Models however differ on timing and location. South of
this front the summer heat will continue while along and north of
this front there will be more seasonal temperatures along with a
chance for thunderstorms, The general trend late week of improving
chances for convection long with temperatures falling back into
the 90s still appears reasonable so will not deviate too far from
the previous forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Clear skies and a light east to southeast wind will produce a
favorable environment for areas of fog early this morning. Based
on the NAM, NMM, ARW, and HRRR the area favorable for this fog
will be around the DDC and GCK between 09z and 15z Sunday.
Visibilities as low as 1 to 3 miles will be possible. Some IFR
stratus will also be possible at times towards daybreak but
confidence on this is not as high. Once the fog and stratus erodes
the skies will be clear and the southerly winds are expected to
increase to around 15 knots after 18z Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 95 69 96 68 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 94 68 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 95 69 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 94 70 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
P28 94 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1136 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Visible satellite shows an MCV from overnight convection over the
area as it drifts eastward. It is weakening therefore do not think
there will be enough lift for any storm development in eastern KS.
Also, the latest guidance suggests that the mlcin is strong over
northeast KS, and should remain that way through the rest of the
afternoon. In central KS the mlcin is eroding where the cape is
around 1000 j/kg. Radar shows convection building in that area,
which is supported by the high res models. Although the focus for
forcing in that area is limited. These showers and storms could move
into north central KS this afternoon and evening. As of now it does
not appear that the coverage will support a strong cold pool that
would last long and progress far. Most of this activity should
reside more in central KS and decrease in the evening. Not much
change in the overall pattern through tomorrow. The forecast area
continues to stay on the western periphery of the surface high
pressure, with the upper ridge centered over the Rockies. Overnight
lows will dip into the upper 60s. Tomorrow the temperatures will
rise as the surface high pressure gradually progresses eastward.
Highs will manage the lower to mid 90s with dew points in the upper
60s. This will produce heat indices in the upper 90s to lower
100s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
The upper flow pattern will remain active over the far northern
CONUS through the long term while much of the region from KS on
south will continue to be dominated by upper high pressure. Sunday
night into Tuesday will feature a couple of those northern CONUS
waves which will push a combination of cold front and convectively-
driven outflow boundaries south. Any such boundary is likely to hang
near or just north of the area by Monday morning and possibly drift
into northern KS during the day. Low level convergence will be weak
but persistent through the day and into the evening...and will
probably be sufficient to initiate thunderstorms just north of the
boundary. The bulk of this activity late Monday would likely focus
just north of the area although there is some potential for it to
extend south with time especially as it would send out additional
outflow. A similar scenario would continue through the overnight
hours and possibly again on Tuesday/Tuesday night. It appears more
likely that the boundary would be farther north and a bit farther
away from northeast KS late Tuesday...and thus storm chances are
better farther to the northeast.
It seems that the upper flow will become slightly more meridional by
late in the week with the upper high centered just to our west.
Temperatures are likely to become quite hot again for the second
half of the week as 850 hPa temps climb back into the middle to
upper 20s. Dewpoints are also likely to increase toward the low 70s
once again so heat indices will be on the increase as well. However,
expect a pretty good gradient from SW to NE across the region and
two of the main uncertainties lie in how far east the upper ridge
will set up (farther east will result in hotter and drier
conditions), and also any convection and outflow impacting the area
during this time as there are weak waves moving through the flow on
a frequent basis. For now, continue with periods of PoPs during the
periods when the more active flow seems to be close to the local
area. Have also continued the trend of warmer temperatures with
several days of heat indices in the 100+ range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the 06Z TAF period. Winds will
gradually veer to the south by mid morning and increase to just
above 10kts through mid morning into the afternoon. Chances for
airmass thunderstorms remains too low to mention.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Convective trends this evening, then return of near triple digit
heat for Monday and Tuesday are the main concerns. Diurnal heating
in the wake of the early morning MCS debris has resulted in MLCAPE
values around 2500 j/kg along and just east of the low level
convergent boundary across south central Kansas. Recent convective
development has occurred along the I-135 corridor and will hold
on to some chance for convection through early this evening.
Otherwise, the elongated upper ridge axis will reorient itself a
bit across the central CONUS during Sunday an upper trof a top the
ridge moves along the Canadian border. This will eventually lead
to a more pronounced longwave upper trof across eastern Canada and
the northeast CONUS by later Monday into Tuesday. This will result
in more of a weak northwest flow regime aloft across eastern
Kansas by Tuesday as the upper ridge axis shifts into the southern
Plains. The overall theme for the forecast area will be for near
triple digit heat to return with low level thickness values
supporting maximum temperatures a bit higher than MOS guidance the
next few days. The main challenge comes late Monday night and
Tuesday in how far south the back door cold front settles south
across eastern Kansas. In the absence of a significant convective
complex it is doubtful this front will make it into the Wichita
forecast area. So with this caveat in mind, will keep the area on
the warm side of the front for now with temperatures well into the
90s. Current expectations on afternoon temperatures and dew point
values would keep the area just shy of heat advisory criteria.
However it will not take much to get us there and this will have
to be monitored.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Hot and dry through mid-week with another attempt at a cold front
and perhaps better chance for that boundary to make it south
across the area by Thursday night and Friday. So will keep slight
to modest POPs in the forecast with only a subtle tweak down on
the thermometer for now.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Aviation concern will be some light fog west of I-135 early Sun
morning.
Diurnal storms associated with the MCV died off a couple hours
ago. Some light fog will be possible after 09z west of I-135 due
to light upslope flow and rich moisture remaining in place. For
now just ran with a tempo at KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. At this point am
fairly confident we are not looking at widespread dense fog.
Outside of some early morning fog, confidence is high that VFR
conditions will be in place the remainder of Sun.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 71 94 71 97 / 30 0 0 0
Hutchinson 70 95 71 98 / 20 0 0 0
Newton 69 94 71 97 / 20 0 0 0
ElDorado 69 93 70 96 / 20 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 71 93 71 96 / 30 0 0 0
Russell 70 96 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 69 96 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
Salina 71 97 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 70 96 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 69 92 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 68 91 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Convective trends this evening, then return of near triple digit
heat for Monday and Tuesday are the main concerns. Diurnal heating
in the wake of the early morning MCS debris has resulted in MLCAPE
values around 2500 j/kg along and just east of the low level
convergent boundary across south central Kansas. Recent convective
development has occurred along the I-135 corridor and will hold
on to some chance for convection through early this evening.
Otherwise, the elongated upper ridge axis will reorient itself a
bit across the central CONUS during Sunday an upper trof a top the
ridge moves along the Canadian border. This will eventually lead
to a more pronounced longwave upper trof across eastern Canada and
the northeast CONUS by later Monday into Tuesday. This will result
in more of a weak northwest flow regime aloft across eastern
Kansas by Tuesday as the upper ridge axis shifts into the southern
Plains. The overall theme for the forecast area will be for near
triple digit heat to return with low level thickness values
supporting maximum temperatures a bit higher than MOS guidance the
next few days. The main challenge comes late Monday night and
Tuesday in how far south the back door cold front settles south
across eastern Kansas. In the absence of a significant convective
complex it is doubtful this front will make it into the Wichita
forecast area. So with this caveat in mind, will keep the area on
the warm side of the front for now with temperatures well into the
90s. Current expectations on afternoon temperatures and dew point
values would keep the area just shy of heat advisory criteria.
However it will not take much to get us there and this will have
to be monitored.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Hot and dry through mid-week with another attempt at a cold front
and perhaps better chance for that boundary to make it south
across the area by Thursday night and Friday. So will keep slight
to modest POPs in the forecast with only a subtle tweak down on
the thermometer for now.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Aviation concern will be some light fog west of I-135 early Sun
morning.
Diurnal storms associated with the MCV died off a couple hours
ago. Some light fog will be possible after 09z west of I-135 due
to light upslope flow and rich moisture remaining in place. For
now just ran with a tempo at KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. At this point am
fairly confident we are not looking at widespread dense fog.
Outside of some early morning fog, confidence is high that VFR
conditions will be in place the remainder of Sun.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 71 94 71 97 / 30 0 0 0
Hutchinson 70 95 71 98 / 20 0 0 0
Newton 69 94 71 97 / 20 0 0 0
ElDorado 69 93 70 96 / 20 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 71 93 71 96 / 30 0 0 0
Russell 70 96 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 69 96 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
Salina 71 97 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 70 96 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 69 92 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 68 91 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1005 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Have added some fog to areas generally east of a line from McCook
to Hoxie and Gove. Latest 00z models (GFS/NAM) showing boundary
layer rh over 90% moving into the area from the southeast where
thunderstorms and heavy rain occurred earlier in the evening in
the Wichita area. This airmass will linger over our eastern
forecast area through early to mid morning before dissipating. NAM
the most aggressive with dense fog possible while the 03z RUC and
latest HRRR havent caught on to the NAM/GFS boundary layer rh
forecast. Otherwise, no significant changes made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are mainly
sunny with temps well into the 80s. Far eastern zones are seeing
some daytime cumulus popping up. These locales are closest to a
shortwave trough over the central portion of Kansas. Rest of the
CWA under subsidence with surface ridging over the region.
Weak surface cape values in the 400-600 J/kg range in the Hill
City/Norton areas and dewpts in the lower 60s...along with
proximity to the trough could provide enough instability to
trigger a few storms. Effects will diminish with sunset...so have
not put in mention for for the evening hours.
For the overnight hours...clear skies expected with temps falling
mainly into the mid to upper 60s. Southerly gradient does increase
overnight as shortwave moves off the Front Range. Areas could see
gusts nearing 20 mph.
Going into Sunday...H5 ridge fully entrenched over the Central
Plains is going to give the region another day well into the 90s.
850mb temps ranging near +30C to +34C in some locales could have
some spots nearing the 100F mark.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Sunday night-Monday night: A stalled front will remain in place
just north of our CWA acting as focus for possible thunderstorm
development through these periods and cutoff for better
instability. Guidance continues to show weak forcing rotating
around ridge and a light QPF signal in our far north. Based on
position of front I am not particularly confidence in advertised
thunderstorm chances, however keeping slight chance PoPs in our
north is reasonable due to the fronts proximity. Highs Monday
should be slightly lower than Sunday with slightly lower heights
and prefrontal trough to the south...though we should still see
above normal highs in the 90s.
Tuesday-Saturday: H5 ridge continues to dominate the pattern
across the plains with above normal temperatures continuing.
Ridge amplifies enough that we should see predominately dry
conditions Tuesday through Wednesday, with highs back into the
upper 90s to 100F.
By Wednesday night the ridge deamplifies enough to allow quick
moving shortwave troughs to begins rotating back through the
plains, which could bring thunderstorm chances almost each period
from Wed night through next weekend. I am not particularly
confidence in timing/coverage of thunderstorms any day/night as
these fast moving upper level features are not traditionally
handled well at this range, and surface features for initiation
are also in question. This "weakening" of the ridge will also
allow for a slight "drop" in temps back to the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows should generally range from near 60 in the west to
near 70 in the east (as has been the trend the last week). &&
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. May see some
cirrus move in from the west/northwest by mid morning and continue
through the afternoon otherwise skc. Winds begin the period from
the southeast around 10kts then increase toward 16-18kts with
higher gusts during the mid to late morning hours and continue
through the afternoon before falling to around 12kts by 02z and
continuing through the rest of the taf period.
KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. However, will
have to watch the 08z-14z timeframe for the possibility of some
clouds based around 300` or so with some fog move in from the
southeast. Right now models showing higher probability of
IFR/VLIFR conditions happening just east of the terminal.
Otherwise, only some high clouds expected after sunrise. Winds
light southeast and south through 13z then slowly increase with
gusts near 25kts during the late morning through afternoon hours.
Afer 01z winds fall below 12kts from the southeast and continue
through the rest of the taf period.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Only minor changes were made with this update, namely to eliminate
the rest of the low-end shower/storm chances over north central ND
early this morning. The surface cold front extends from near Minot
to Dickinson and Hettinger at 11 UTC and will continue shifting to
the southeast this morning. An area of low clouds has formed just
behind the front over western and north central ND, but we expect
them to lift and erode by about 15 UTC as the boundary layer mixes
thanks to diurnal heating and increasing mechanical turbulence as
winds increase behind the front.
UPDATE Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quick update to cancel the rest of the severe thunderstorm watch
in north central ND and to reduce PoPs there the remainder of the
pre-dawn hours. RAP model soundings show increasing capping aloft
and radar and satellite imagery show no evidence of additional
convective development behind the cluster of intense storms which
is racing eastward around 50 kt and which is in northeast ND as of
0950 UTC. Thus, we are confident that the risk of severe weather
is over with.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North
Dakota with warm front looping through north central into
northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places series of
subtle short waves moving through the northern plains. Robust
convection continues over northern portions of North Dakota where
strong instability (2-3 KJ/KG) along with very impressive deep
layer shear (~60 kts) are noted. Storms will continue their
eastward progression through the early morning hours.
For the rest of today...storms should push to the east by around
or shortly after sunrise. Cold front will swoop through the area
bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations...with
the southern James River Valley being the possible exception as
the front may not approach until early/mid afternoon. Windy
conditions expected behind the front, especially over northwest
and west-central portions of the state where cool air advection
may allow stronger winds aloft to mix down. A wind advisory will
be posted over that area. Winds diminish in the evening with a
quiet night expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quiet weather expected Monday through Tuesday afternoon as upper
ridge passes over the area.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday...a shortwave trough working
through the Pacific Northwest scoots into and through the upper
ridge. In doing so, moisture advection increases with
thunderstorms initiating along and ahead a surface low as it
slides into western and central North Dakota. The shortwave trough
exits Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Occasional thunderstorm chances expected to end the week as a few
weak disturbances push through the area. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
An area of low clouds and mist with IFR and LIFR conditions will
impact parts of western and north central ND early this morning.
Those lower flight categories have formed in the immediate wake
of a cold front, but the ceilings are forecast to lift by about
15 UTC as the lower atmosphere warms and mixes. Until then the
KMOT, KISN, and KDIK TAFs may require amendments. VFR conditions
are otherwise expected today and tonight with gusty northwest
winds. Winds will be strongest in western ND where gusts of 30 to
40 kt are expected.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
454 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quick update to cancel the rest of the severe thunderstorm watch
in north central ND and to reduce PoPs there the remainder of the
pre-dawn hours. RAP model soundings show increasing capping aloft
and radar and satellite imagery show no evidence of additional
convective development behind the cluster of intense storms which
is racing eastward around 50 kt and which is in northeast ND as of
0950 UTC. Thus, we are confident that the risk of severe weather
is over with.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North
Dakota with warm front looping through north central into
northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places series of
subtle short waves moving through the northern plains. Robust
convection continues over northern portions of North Dakota where
strong instability (2-3 KJ/KG) along with very impressive deep
layer shear (~60 kts) are noted. Storms will continue their
eastward progression through the early morning hours.
For the rest of today...storms should push to the east by around
or shortly after sunrise. Cold front will swoop through the area
bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations...with
the southern James River Valley being the possible exception as
the front may not approach until early/mid afternoon. Windy
conditions expected behind the front, especially over northwest
and west-central portions of the state where cool air advection
may allow stronger winds aloft to mix down. A wind advisory will
be posted over that area. Winds diminish in the evening with a
quiet night expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quiet weather expected Monday through Tuesday afternoon as upper
ridge passes over the area.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday...a shortwave trough working
through the Pacific Northwest scoots into and through the upper
ridge. In doing so, moisture advection increases with
thunderstorms initiating along and ahead a surface low as it
slides into western and central North Dakota. The shortwave trough
exits Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Occasional thunderstorm chances expected to end the week as a few
weak disturbances push through the area. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Low-level wind shear over south central ND early this morning will
gradually diminish by 14 UTC as a strong low-level jet with 50 kt
winds as low as 1500 ft AGL subsides. VFR conditions will prevail
today and tonight behind a cold front crossing the area early this
morning. Gusty northwest winds are expected today, with peak gusts
of 30 to 40 kt in parts of western ND, including at KISN and KDIK.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 0
Camden AR 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison AR 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 94 76 96 77 / 10 0 10 0
Monticello AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 92 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
Mountain Home AR 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 0 10
Newport AR 94 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Russellville AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Searcy AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Stuttgart AR 93 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Camden AR 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
Harrison AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
Monticello AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Newport AR 75 93 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10
Russellville AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
Stuttgart AR 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
Thunderstorms have redeveloped from central Nebraska southeast into
northwest Missouri in a region of deep moisture convergence.
Southwesterly low level jet will continue to focus convection near
or to the northeast of the forecast area through mid morning. Short
term high resolution models support keeping precipitation to the
northeast or affecting far northeast Kansas. Have kept precipitation
chances across the far northeast through mid morning. Frontal
boundary across the forecast area is expected to lift to the
northeast this morning as a warm front and by 00Z should extend from
low pressure in northwest Nebraska southeast across northwest
Missouri. With a return of southerly flow and increasing low level
jet from the southwest this evening, isentropic lift over the
frontal boundary should focus additional storm development mainly
across Iowa tonight. Another day of very warm to hot temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid and upper 90s with mixing down
from 825 mb this afternoon. Dew points will be a couple of degrees
lower today which will keep the heat indices in the 97 to 103 degree
range. Temperatures tonight will be mild as boundary layer remains
mixed with a southerly wind through the night. Expect lows in the
mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
By Wednesday, a broad mid-level ridge will be stretched across the
central and southern CONUS. Models show a shortwave trough tracking
eastward across North Dakota into Minnesota through the day, which
should help to push a cold front into north central Kansas by late
morning or early afternoon. This front should slowly shift to the
south-southeast, however much of the forecast area should remain in
the warm sector throughout the day with breezy southerly winds from
the pressure gradient helping to support decent warm-air advection.
As a result, expect the hottest temperatures of the week to occur on
Wednesday with highs reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s. With
dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, heat index values may
soar into the 101 to 107 degree range during the afternoon. Despite
having this boundary in place Wednesday afternoon with decent mid-
level instability, model soundings show a strong enough cap in place
that it should inhibit any thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. The GFS/GEM show the potential for enough lift to be
present near this lingering boundary to produce some elevated storms
Wednesday night. However, the ECMWF/NAM remain with a dry forecast
so have only slight chance PoPs in due to this model discrepancy.
With this boundary lingering across portions of central and east
central Kansas, could see some scattered storms develop through the
day on Thursday and Friday. With decent instability in place and
marginal 0-6km bulk shear values of around 25kts on Thursday, cannot
rule out the potential for a few strong storms to develop with hail
being the primary threat.
Slight model discrepancies start becoming more noticeable by the
weekend, with these discrepancies causing some uncertainty in the
timing and location of precipitation chances. Models show a mid-
level trough moving eastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday
and advancing across the Northern Plains on Sunday. This advancing
trough will help to push another cold front into the region late
Saturday night through Sunday, bringing additional chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Dependent upon where this
boundary ends up tracking by Monday, some lingering scattered storms
may be possible into Monday. As a result, have slight to chance
PoPs across portions of the CWA this weekend into early next week.
As for temperatures, expect relatively consistent conditions late
week through the weekend with high temperatures in the 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Additional TS development for the 06Z TAF period expected to
remain NNE of terminals. LLWS with LLJ tonight near the 09-13Z
time frame too small to mention as well. VFR forecast continued.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016
An upper level trough/low, located just off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest at 00z Tuesday, will move east and approach the
Northern Rockies late today as a trough of low pressure deepens
across the lee of the Rockies. A surface boundary extending from
west to east across northern Kansas earlier this morning will lift
north as a warm front during the day. The net 24 hour change of
the 850mb temperatures from the NAM will warm 2C to 4C. The NAM
also warms the 700mb temperatures +4C to +6C while the GFS was a
little cooler with this warming trend. The 24 hour temperature
change from the GFS was only +3 to +4. Based on these temperatures
and the model soundings mixing depth forecast by late day the
highs today in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees still looks on
track with the warmer temperatures being across west central and
north central Kansas. Precipitation chances should be focused near
the surface lee trough...should something develop.
As an upper level trough crosses the northern Plains tonight the
surface lee trough will move into far western Kansas and a cold
front will drop south towards northwest Kansas. Over southwest
Kansas tonight the winds are expected to be stronger than the past
few nights so will favor the warmer guidance for lows tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016
On Wednesday the cold front will move into southwest Kansas by
the early afternoon. This surface boundary will move under some
warm mid level temperatures. The NAM has 700mb temperatures over
this cold front at 15C to around 18C while the GFS indicated 700mb
temperatures a few degrees cooler. Convection along this boundary
may be difficult given these warm temperatures. Despite these warm
temperatures will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms along
this boundary in far southwestern Kansas given the steep low level
lapse rates and upslope flow developing in eastern Colorado ahead
of an approaching upper level trough. As the upper level trough
crosses southwest Kansas Wednesday night any surface based
convection will end as it tries to spread into western Kansas.
Some elevated convection can not be ruled out ahead of this wave
as 850mb warm air advection improves by early Thursday morning.
This surface boundary will slowly lift northeast through rest of
the work week but exactly how quickly is somewhat unclear given
the the latest GFS and ECMWF. Based where the models place this
surface boundary along with warm air advection north of this front
and an upper wave crossing the plains Thursday night will continue
to favor small chances for convection. Trends from the model
suggest northern Kansas will have the better opportunity.
A better opportunity for convection may occur over the weekend
period given the timing of the next, more significant, upper level
trough crossing western Kansas. As this next upper level trough
crosses the Central Plains Saturday night into early Sunday a
surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Southeast winds at around 10 knots will gradually veer to the
south southwest by 12z Tuesday. These southerly winds will then
increase to near 20 knots by late morning as surface pressures
begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. RAP ,NMM, ARW and
model soundings all indicating VFR conditions through Tuesday
evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 71 99 70 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 98 69 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 96 70 99 68 / 0 0 20 20
LBL 96 71 101 70 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 98 70 95 69 / 0 0 10 10
P28 97 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Additional TS development for the 06Z TAF period expected to
remain NNE of terminals. LLWS with LLJ tonight near the 09-13Z
time frame too small to mention as well. VFR forecast continued.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TERMINALS DUE TO
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE JUST OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KADF THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE EARLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TERMINALS DUE TO
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE JUST OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KADF THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE EARLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 0
Camden AR 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison AR 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 94 76 96 77 / 10 0 10 0
Monticello AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 92 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
Mountain Home AR 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 0 10
Newport AR 94 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Russellville AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Searcy AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Stuttgart AR 93 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Camden AR 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
Harrison AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
Monticello AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Newport AR 75 93 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10
Russellville AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
Stuttgart AR 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
The center of the upper level ridge is in place to the west of the
region over the SRN Rockies...and it`s influence has kept most areas
dry across the CWA this afternoon. Generally only afternoon CU has
been seen...but some areas across the extreme NERN CWA have seen a
few weak SHRA pop up recently...as well as some counties across SWRN
AR outside the CWA. These areas will see the best potential for
precip through early this evening...and have only mentioned some
slight chance pops for isolated SHRA/TSRA. Should see most areas
remain dry however due to the ridge aloft.
Not much difference will be seen for Wed regarding precip as the
upper ridge will remain overhead and to the west of the CWA. As a
result...don`t have mention of any precip at this time...even during
the afternoon hrs. One difference compared to today will be
increased SWRLY winds...which should allow temps to warm an extra
deg or two from today`s highs. These increased temps should
correspond with slightly drier air near the SFC due to increased
mixing...so will likely not need a heat adv again for Wed.
The upper ridge will flatten some for Thu...and winds should not be
as strong as expected on Wed. As a result...afternoon humidity
levels will be a bit higher...and temps will also remain in the 90s
for most areas. Will have to pay close attention to the overall
temp/RH trend this day as heat index values may get close to Heat
Adv criteria. There will be a cold front approaching from the north
late Thu afternoon...but this front should remain in MO. Even
so...have mentioned some slight chance pops for the NRN counties as
that front gets closer to the state. Otherwise...just hot and humid
conditions will be the story for the short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Very little has changed since yesterday`s discussion, as the upper
level ridge of high pressure will remain in control through the
extended term. High temperatures will continue in the 90`s under the
ridge, and with dewpoints generally in the 70`s, heat index values
each afternoon will top out over 100.
I have low POPs in many areas throughout the extended term,
generally to cover afternoon and early evening convection that may
develop.
Toward the end of the extended term things will begin to change just
a bit, as the ridge axis centers over the desert southwest and a
broad trof develops over the eastern US. On the far eastern edge of
the ridge we could see a bit more convection in the afternoon hours,
and the remnants of any nocturnal MCS`s over the plains could drift
into portions of the CWA during the daytime hours. With those
scenarios in mind I have bumpped up POPs just a bit in the latter
forecast groups.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 76 96 77 95 / 10 10 0 20
Camden AR 75 96 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison AR 73 95 74 94 / 10 10 0 20
Hot Springs AR 75 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello AR 75 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida AR 73 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 74 97 75 96 / 10 10 0 20
Newport AR 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 0 20
Pine Bluff AR 75 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville AR 74 97 76 96 / 10 10 0 20
Searcy AR 74 96 76 95 / 10 10 0 20
Stuttgart AR 76 96 77 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect mainly daytime CU with bases at 3-5 kft this afternoon.
Tonight...VFR conditions should continue...with the exception
being some fog at ADF near sunrise. More of the same is expected
for the daylight hrs on Wed...with just some daytime CU with bases
3-5 kft.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect mainly daytime CU with bases at 3-5 kft this afternoon.
Tonight...VFR conditions should continue...with the exception
being some fog at ADF near sunrise. More of the same is expected
for the daylight hrs on Wed...with just some daytime CU with bases
3-5 kft.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TERMINALS DUE TO
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE JUST OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KADF THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE EARLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TERMINALS DUE TO
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE JUST OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KADF THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE EARLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016)
SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM ...Tonight through Wednesday night
Models this morning are not showing any major or significant
differences between solutions and a persistence forecast using a
blend of solutions is preferred this morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a sprawling upper ridge that
encompasses the majority of both the southern plains and the desert
southwest. The ridge is flanked by a large upper trough over the
northeast quadrant of the country and a much smaller trough over the
Pacific northwest. A cluster of thunderstorms over Missouri that is
riding a frontal boundary expected to pass to the northeast of the
forecast area with only some cirrus blow off expected.
Aforementioned front will knock down the ridge somewhat but the
boundary itself will never actually make it into the state. With the
ridge the dominant feature, expect another hot and humid day with
southerly low level flow keeping moisture in place. Only a few late
day showers and thunderstorms will be possible and they will
dissipate, if the develop at all, after sunset.
The upper ridge does flatten out even more on Wednesday as upper level
troffing over the northeast conus sinks a little further south.
However, temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 temps warm up a
touch. Rain chances look to be almost non existent with the biggest
concern being if heat related headlines are needed. Heat indices do
flirt with 105 degrees Wednesday but only at a few spots and only
for an hour or two meaning no heat advisory will be issued at this
time.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
A weak front will approach the state from the north on Thursday but
will wash out near the Missouri border or in northern Arkansas late
thursday. Some rain chances will be in the forecast for the northern
parts of the state late Thursday and into Friday as a result...but
do not expect much beyond some isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
should be dry as high pressure builds back into the region, but
another disturbance moving across the northern plains late Saturday
and Sunday will weaken the high pressure over Arkansas...which will
allow more widespread showers and thunderstorms to affect the state
by Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with afternoon highs in the mid
to possibly upper 90s forecast through the long term for most areas.
The exceptions will be higher elevations where highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s will be more common.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 0
Camden AR 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison AR 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 93 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 94 76 96 77 / 10 0 10 0
Monticello AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 92 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
Mountain Home AR 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 0 10
Newport AR 94 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 93 75 / 20 0 10 10
Russellville AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Searcy AR 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
Stuttgart AR 93 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.AVIATION...
Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to spread SWD acrs much of the area
overnight...assocd with dcrsg convection ovr MO. Some low clouds
still expected to form ovr part of CNTRL/SRN AR toward daybreak...
with brief MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail.
Wdly sctd diurnal convection expected again Tue aftn...but not
enough coverage to mention in the fcst attm.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...21/00z Taf Cycle
Isolated convection wl cont to diminish ovr the next hour or so
and have no impact on fcst sites. Expect to see some low clouds
form toward daybreak acrs the srn half of the FA...with brief
MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. Expect isold
SHRA/TSRA again Tue aftn...but again not enough coverage to
warrant a mention in the fcst. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Camden AR 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
Harrison AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
Monticello AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Newport AR 75 93 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10
Russellville AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
Stuttgart AR 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Fair weather is expected through tonight. A warm front will
return northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the
area. This will result in a renewed threat of showers and
thunderstorms...and a greater threat of widespread severe weather
late Wednesday afternoon and night. In addition, there is a
potential of some heavy rainfall Wednesday night. Low temperatures
tonight will drop from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures
on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Potent ridge runner cresting rockies ridge acrs MT attm of which
will rapidly eject into the wrn Grtlks wed night. Ahd of this
ftr...stalled fntl zone stretching fm ne KS ewd through sw OH will
begin to lift back north lt tonight inadv of this ftr. 12Z tight
consensus holds back precip dvlpmnt lt tonight acrs swrn zones and
in light of decaying upstream convn acrs MO will cut/contract pops
further through 12Z wed. Otrws btr wmfntl push ewd of sfc cyclone
shifting out the plains looks delayed til wed evening sw
and northeast of there overnight. Hwvr proximity of substantial
ll waa wing and vry unstable theta-e plume holding w/low end
likely pops mid morning and tapering thereafter. Combo of cld cvr
and rain will curtail more appreciable warming and stayed close
to prior temp grids.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Sharp wmfntl bndry will focus stg-svr convection wed evening esp
wrn areas in the evening where best overlap of potential
instability/shear parameter space exits. Sig wind damage and
tornado risk appears most present invof of highway 30 south acrs
IN where composite outflw fm morning storms likely to lay out and
interact w/apchg upscale conv line shifting out of IL wed evening.
Aft that rockies ridge expands/shifts east in response to deep nrn
stream sw trough that wraps up ewd through srn Canada by lt weekend.
Given hgt rises aloft...no discernible forcing and warm air aloft
will scrap all pop mention through sat night if not further as this
ftr slows w/ewd extent. Nr seasonal temps through the pd.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet aviation weather to continue through this forecast valid
period, although shower/thunderstorm potential will increase from
west to east across northern Indiana late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Outside of some limited high based VFR cu, only
some increasing high clouds are expected later tonight. A warm
front will shift northward on Wednesday resulting in an increased
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through midday,
particularly at KSBN, where have added VCSH mention after 15Z.
Later TAF issuances will likely need to consider thunder mention
later Wednesday afternoon and especially by Wednesday night. West,
northwest winds gusting into the 15 to 20 knot range this
afternoon will diminish to less than 5 knots this evening, with
south-southwest winds around 10 knots for Wednesday.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Marsili
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, and LONG TERM sections have
been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A frontal system will bring the threat for thunderstorms through
Thursday, with severe storms possible mainly Wednesday. Another
frontal system could bring more rain for the second half of the
weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be near to above
average.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Thunderstorms have formed south of the forecast area this afternoon,
closer to a cold front that is moving slowly away from the area.
Thus plan on going dry for late this afternoon into early evening.
Later this evening into the overnight hours, the front will begin
its trek northward again as a warm front. Most upper support remains
to the northwest of the area, but there will be enough lift to go
chance PoPs southwest and slight chance PoPs central. Even the more
aggressive GFS and Canadian keep the northeast dry, so will continue
a dry forecast there overnight.
Can`t rule out a strong storm overnight, but feel that better
chances for severe storms will hold off until Wednesday.
MAV MOS generally looks good for low temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Focus is on storm chances on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Some upper energy will approach the area from the northwest
Wednesday morning. This will interact with the warm front moving
across the area at the time to increase the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Will go likely PoPs by mid morning most areas.
As the warm front moves north, chances for rain will diminish across
the area during Wednesday afternoon. Lowered PoPs to chance category
all areas by 18Z or so.
Convection will develop well to our northwest late Wednesday
afternoon and then become an MCS that will move across northern
Indiana Wednesday evening. Atmosphere that will be feeding the MCS
will be hot and humid and will provide plenty of instability. Strong
unidirectional flow will allow for a strong damaging wind threat
with the MCS, and the SPC has placed a moderate risk in the extreme
north part of the area with an enhanced risk remainder of the
northern half of the area.
At the moment believe the southern end of the MCS will move across
the northern quarter or so of the forecast area so went likely PoPs
there 00-06Z Wednesday night. Only went slight chance far southwest
with chance PoPs in between. Of course the track of the MCS could
still change so will continue to monitor closely as the situation
develops.
Heavy rain and flooding will also be a threat with the storms
Wednesday with precipitable water values increasing to around 2
inches.
A cold front will then move through the area later Wednesday night
through Thursday. Most of the upper support will be out of the area
so kept PoPs in chance category or lower. Ended PoPs far north
Thursday afternoon with the front south of that area by then. Friday
will be dry with high pressure in control.
Generally stayed with a blend for temperatures through the period,
especially given some uncertainty on exact timing of rain/cloud
cover on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
High pressure early in the extended period will result in dry
conditions from Friday night through Saturday. The pattern will
change by Saturday night, however, as instability increases behind a
warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will form in the warm sector
on Sunday ahead of an associated cold front. This front will
continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
Further out, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the southwestern counties on Tuesday as a trough moves
through the Great Lakes Region, but chances will be low.
Temperatures through the period will be above normal with highs in
the upper 80s/low 90s and lows fluctuating between the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cold front draped along the Ohio Valley will keep any
shower/thunderstorm chances south of TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. However, conditions will start changing overnight as warm
advection fuels widespread convective activity. For now, will
highlight a VCTS start time around Wed 10-12Z with best potential
for strong to severe storms during the Wed 15-19Z time frame.
After that, expect a bit of a lull in activity through the
afternoon hours tomorrow. VFR conditions will be the prevailing
flight category out of any storms, but expect quick fluctuations
in visibilities and ceilings during any thunderstorms. Winds will
start out west/southwesterly and eventually become southeasterly
with sustained speeds of 4 to 11 kts.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, and LONG TERM sections have
been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A frontal system will bring the threat for thunderstorms through
Thursday, with severe storms possible mainly Wednesday. Another
frontal system could bring more rain for the second half of the
weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be near to above
average.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Thunderstorms have formed south of the forecast area this afternoon,
closer to a cold front that is moving slowly away from the area.
Thus plan on going dry for late this afternoon into early evening.
Later this evening into the overnight hours, the front will begin
its trek northward again as a warm front. Most upper support remains
to the northwest of the area, but there will be enough lift to go
chance PoPs southwest and slight chance PoPs central. Even the more
aggressive GFS and Canadian keep the northeast dry, so will continue
a dry forecast there overnight.
Can`t rule out a strong storm overnight, but feel that better
chances for severe storms will hold off until Wednesday.
MAV MOS generally looks good for low temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Focus is on storm chances on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Some upper energy will approach the area from the northwest
Wednesday morning. This will interact with the warm front moving
across the area at the time to increase the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Will go likely PoPs by mid morning most areas.
As the warm front moves north, chances for rain will diminish across
the area during Wednesday afternoon. Lowered PoPs to chance category
all areas by 18Z or so.
Convection will develop well to our northwest late Wednesday
afternoon and then become an MCS that will move across northern
Indiana Wednesday evening. Atmosphere that will be feeding the MCS
will be hot and humid and will provide plenty of instability. Strong
unidirectional flow will allow for a strong damaging wind threat
with the MCS, and the SPC has placed a moderate risk in the extreme
north part of the area with an enhanced risk remainder of the
northern half of the area.
At the moment believe the southern end of the MCS will move across
the northern quarter or so of the forecast area so went likely PoPs
there 00-06Z Wednesday night. Only went slight chance far southwest
with chance PoPs in between. Of course the track of the MCS could
still change so will continue to monitor closely as the situation
develops.
Heavy rain and flooding will also be a threat with the storms
Wednesday with precipitable water values increasing to around 2
inches.
A cold front will then move through the area later Wednesday night
through Thursday. Most of the upper support will be out of the area
so kept PoPs in chance category or lower. Ended PoPs far north
Thursday afternoon with the front south of that area by then. Friday
will be dry with high pressure in control.
Generally stayed with a blend for temperatures through the period,
especially given some uncertainty on exact timing of rain/cloud
cover on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
High pressure early in the extended period will result in dry
conditions from Friday night through Saturday. The pattern will
change by Saturday night, however, as instability increases behind a
warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will form in the warm sector
on Sunday ahead of an associated cold front. This front will
continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
Further out, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the southwestern counties on Tuesday as a trough moves
through the Great Lakes Region, but chances will be low.
Temperatures through the period will be above normal with highs in
the upper 80s/low 90s and lows fluctuating between the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cold front draped along the Ohio Valley will keep any
shower/thunderstorm chances south of TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. However, conditions will start changing overnight as warm
advection fuels widespread convective activity. For now, will
highlight a VCTS start time around Wed 10-12Z with best potential
for strong to severe storms during the Wed 15-19Z time frame.
After that, expect a bit of a lull in activity through the
afternoon hours tomorrow. VFR conditions will be the prevailing
flight category out of any storms, but expect quick fluctuations
in visibilities and ceilings during any thunderstorms. Winds will
start out west/southwesterly and eventually become southeasterly
with sustained speeds of 4 to 11 kts.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Front continues to move slowly south across central Indiana this
morning, with drier air across the northern half of the area.
Delayed PoPs by a couple of hours, but otherwise they look pretty
good with front continuing its slow trek south. Bumped up sky cover
based on latest trends seen on satellite, and may have to increase
more if clouds over Illinois do not thin out more as they come east
into the area.
Tweaked temperatures but no major changes.
Previous discussion follows...
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cold front draped along the Ohio Valley will keep any
shower/thunderstorm chances south of TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. However, conditions will start changing overnight as warm
advection fuels widespread convective activity. For now, will
highlight a VCTS start time around Wed 10-12Z with best potential
for strong to severe storms during the Wed 15-19Z time frame.
After that, expect a bit of a lull in activity through the
afternoon hours tomorrow. VFR conditions will be the prevailing
flight category out of any storms, but expect quick fluctuations
in visibilities and ceilings during any thunderstorms. Winds will
start out west/southwesterly and eventually become southeasterly
with sustained speeds of 4 to 11 kts.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Fair weather is expected through tonight. A warm front will
return northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the
area. This will result in a renewed threat of showers and
thunderstorms...and a greater threat of widespread severe weather
late Wednesday afternoon and night. In addition, there is a
potential of some heavy rainfall Wednesday night. Low temperatures
tonight will drop from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures
on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
...moderate risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening...
Drier and somewhat cooler air mass has settled into the region for
today and tonight.
This will change rapidly wednesday.
A warm front and moisture surge will overspread the area early
Wednesday and this will set the stage for the afternoon and evening
convective development. Westerly flow and a pronounced shortwave
trof will lead to intense and rapid cyclogenesis over Iowa during
the early morning hours Wednesday. Ahead of this expect to see
strong LLJ formation across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valley
and this will help to trigger convective development along the
frontal boundary. While the severe threat with this initial round of
convection is relatively low for our area...this will help to set
the stage for the late afternoon/evening severe threat.
Convective destabilization over IA/IL/WI during the afternoon
coincident with the surface low will likely form in to a well
organized MCC/MCS. This will likely track rapidly along the warm
frontal boundary into the IWX area. Given the shear and instability
the potential for widespread damaging winds. This pattern favors
squall line and bowing segments...which would also support the
development of weak tornado formation along and embedded in these
lines. Additionally there will be an abundance of boundary layer
moisture and expect that rainfall amounts will easily exceed 1 to
1.5 inches in many locations...especially during the evening and
overnight period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Long wave pattern over the CONUS will continue to favor a period of
unsettled weather for the Great Lakes region. With a relatively flat
and persistent ridge over the Southern Rockies a seemingly regular
barrage of short waves will eject across the northern tier states
through the extended period.
In the wake of the MCC/MCS Thursday morning...lingering showers will
shift south and east. A return to cooler and drier airmass in the
cyclonic flow from Friday and Saturday before another system dives
out of the Rockies and affects the Great Lakes Region Sunday.
As this system exits there does appear to be a deepening of the trof
over the Great Lakes region and this should usher in another round
of cooler and drier air for the beginning of next workweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet aviation weather to continue through this forecast valid
period, although shower/thunderstorm potential will increase from
west to east across northern Indiana late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Outside of some limited high based VFR cu, only
some increasing high clouds are expected later tonight. A warm
front will shift northward on Wednesday resulting in an increased
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through midday,
particularly at KSBN, where have added VCSH mention after 15Z.
Later TAF issuances will likely need to consider thunder mention
later Wednesday afternoon and especially by Wednesday night. West,
northwest winds gusting into the 15 to 20 knot range this
afternoon will diminish to less than 5 knots this evening, with
south-southwest winds around 10 knots for Wednesday.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Lewis
LONG TERM...Lewis
AVIATION...Marsili
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Fair weather is expected through tonight. A warm front will
return northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the
area. This will result in a renewed threat of showers and
thunderstorms...and a greater threat of widespread severe weather
late Wednesday afternoon and night. In addition, there is a
potential of some heavy rainfall Wednesday night. Low temperatures
tonight will drop from the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures
on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
...moderate risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening...
Drier and somewhat cooler air mass has settled into the region for
today and tonight.
This will change rapidly wednesday.
A warm front and moisture surge will overspread the area early
Wednesday and this will set the stage for the afternoon and evening
convective development. Westerly flow and a pronounced shortwave
trof will lead to intense and rapid cyclogenesis over Iowa during
the early morning hours Wednesday. Ahead of this expect to see
strong LLJ formation across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valley
and this will help to trigger convective development along the
frontal boundary. While the severe threat with this initial round of
convection is relatively low for our area...this will help to set
the stage for the late afternoon/evening severe threat.
Convective destabilization over IA/IL/WI during the afternoon
coincident with the surface low will likely form in to a well
organized MCC/MCS. This will likely track rapidly along the warm
frontal boundary into the IWX area. Given the shear and instability
the potential for widespread damaging winds. This pattern favors
squall line and bowing segments...which would also support the
development of weak tornado formation along and embedded in these
lines. Additionally there will be an abundance of boundary layer
moisture and expect that rainfall amounts will easily exceed 1 to
1.5 inches in many locations...especially during the evening and
overnight period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Long wave pattern over the CONUS will continue to favor a period of
unsettled weather for the Great Lakes region. With a relatively flat
and persistent ridge over the Southern Rockies a seemingly regular
barrage of short waves will eject across the northern tier states
through the extended period.
In the wake of the MCC/MCS Thursday morning...lingering showers will
shift south and east. A return to cooler and drier airmass in the
cyclonic flow from Friday and Saturday before another system dives
out of the Rockies and affects the Great Lakes Region Sunday.
As this system exits there does appear to be a deepening of the trof
over the Great Lakes region and this should usher in another round
of cooler and drier air for the beginning of next workweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet aviation weather to continue through this forecast valid
period, although shower/thunderstorm potential will increase from
west to east across northern Indiana late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Outside of some limited high based VFR cu, only
some increasing high clouds are expected later tonight. A warm
front will shift northward on Wednesday resulting in an increased
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through midday,
particularly at KSBN, where have added VCSH mention after 15Z.
Later TAF issuances will likely need to consider thunder mention
later Wednesday afternoon and especially by Wednesday night. West,
northwest winds gusting into the 15 to 20 knot range this
afternoon will diminish to less than 5 knots this evening, with
south-southwest winds around 10 knots for Wednesday.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Lewis
LONG TERM...Lewis
AVIATION...Marsili
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Front continues to move slowly south across central Indiana this
morning, with drier air across the northern half of the area.
Delayed PoPs by a couple of hours, but otherwise they look pretty
good with front continuing its slow trek south. Bumped up sky cover
based on latest trends seen on satellite, and may have to increase
more if clouds over Illinois do not thin out more as they come east
into the area.
Tweaked temperatures but no major changes.
Previous discussion follows...
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/15Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
UPDATE...
Winds have shifted to the northwest up to 10 kts, otherwise no
flight category changes. VFR conditions continue.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR likely through the period.
Generally anticipate quiet weather much of this period as frontal
boundary sags south of the area, and thus chances for convective
activity appear to stay south of the sites through much of the
period. May see some showers/storms arrive at IND in the 36 hour TAF
period but this is far from certain.
Winds will generally between 260-300 degrees. Gusts into the 15-17KT
range will be possible at times from late morning through the
afternoon.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Front continues to move slowly south across central Indiana this
morning, with drier air across the northern half of the area.
Delayed PoPs by a couple of hours, but otherwise they look pretty
good with front continuing its slow trek south. Bumped up sky cover
based on latest trends seen on satellite, and may have to increase
more if clouds over Illinois do not thin out more as they come east
into the area.
Tweaked temperatures but no major changes.
Previous discussion follows...
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/12Z TAFs/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
VFR likely through the period.
Generally anticipate quiet weather much of this period as frontal
boundary sags south of the area, and thus chances for convective
activity appear to stay south of the sites through much of the
period. May see some showers/storms arrive at IND in the 36 hour TAF
period but this is far from certain.
Winds will generally between 260-300 degrees. Gusts into the 15-17KT
range will be possible at times from late morning through the
afternoon.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Front continues to move slowly south across central Indiana this
morning, with drier air across the northern half of the area.
Delayed PoPs by a couple of hours, but otherwise they look pretty
good with front continuing its slow trek south. Bumped up sky cover
based on latest trends seen on satellite, and may have to increase
more if clouds over Illinois do not thin out more as they come east
into the area.
Tweaked temperatures but no major changes.
Previous discussion follows...
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/12Z TAFs/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
VFR likely through the period.
Generally anticipate quiet weather much of this period as frontal
boundary sags south of the area, and thus chances for convective
activity appear to stay south of the sites through much of the
period. May see some showers/storms arrive at IND in the 36 hour TAF
period but this is far from certain.
Winds will generally between 260-300 degrees. Gusts into the 15-17KT
range will be possible at times from late morning through the
afternoon.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The Aviation section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/12Z TAFs/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
VFR likely through the period.
Generally anticipate quiet weather much of this period as frontal
boundary sags south of the area, and thus chances for convective
activity appear to stay south of the sites through much of the
period. May see some showers/storms arrive at IND in the 36 hour TAF
period but this is far from certain.
Winds will generally between 260-300 degrees. Gusts into the 15-17KT
range will be possible at times from late morning through the
afternoon.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
639 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Fair weather is expected today and tonight. A warm front will return
northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the area. This
will result in a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms...and
a greater threat of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and night.
High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s today
with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
...moderate risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening...
Drier and somewhat cooler air mass has settled into the region for
today and tonight.
This will change rapidly wednesday.
A warm front and moisture surge will overspread the area early
Wednesday and this will set the stage for the afternoon and evening
convective development. Westerly flow and a pronounced shortwave
trof will lead to intense and rapid cyclogenesis over Iowa during
the early morning hours Wednesday. Ahead of this expect to see
strong LLJ formation across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valley
and this will help to trigger convective development along the
frontal boundary. While the severe threat with this initial round of
convection is relatively low for our area...this will help to set
the stage for the late afternoon/evening severe threat.
Convective destablization over IA/IL/WI during the afternoon
coincident with the surface low will likely form in to a well
organized MCC/MCS. This will likely track rapidly along the warm
frontal boundary into the IWX area. Given the shear and instability
the potential for widespread damaging winds. This pattern favors
squall line and bowing segments...which would also support the
development of weak tornado formation along and embedded in these
lines. Additionally there will be an abundance of boundary layer
moisture and expect that rainfall amounts will easily exceed 1 to
1.5 inches in many locations...especially during the evening and
overnight period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Long wave pattern over the CONUS will continue to favor a period of
unsettled weather for the Great Lakes region. With a relatively flat
and persistent ridge over the Southern Rockies a seemingly regular
barrage of short waves will eject across the northern tier states
through the extended period.
In the wake of the MCC/MCS Thursday morning...lingering showers will
shift south and east. A return to cooler and drier airmass in the
cyclonic flow from Friday and Saturday before another system dives
out of the Rockies and affects the Great Lakes Region Sunday.
As this system exits there does appear to be a deepening of the trof
over the Great Lakes region and this should usher in another round
of cooler and drier air for the beginning of next workweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
cdfnt has moved south of the area with drier nw flow in its wake.
Only a few cu expected today as high pressure approaches. Modest
nwly winds today will become light and variable tngt as the ridge
moves overhead. Increasing high clouds in advance of an
approaching warm front expected overnight.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...Lewis
LONG TERM...Lewis
AVIATION...JT
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
346 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Fair weather is expected today and tonight. A warm front will return
northward on Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the area. This
will result in a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms...and
a greater threat of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and night.
High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s today
with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
...moderate risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening...
Drier and somewhat cooler air mass has settled into the region for
today and tonight.
This will change rapidly wednesday.
A warm front and moisture surge will overspread the area early
Wednesday and this will set the stage for the afternoon and evening
convective development. Westerly flow and a pronounced shortwave
trof will lead to intense and rapid cyclogenesis over Iowa during
the early morning hours Wednesday. Ahead of this expect to see
strong LLJ formation across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valley
and this will help to trigger convective development along the
frontal boundary. While the severe threat with this initial round of
convection is relatively low for our area...this will help to set
the stage for the late afternoon/evening severe threat.
Convective destablization over IA/IL/WI during the afternoon
coincident with the surface low will likely form in to a well
organized MCC/MCS. This will likely track rapidly along the warm
frontal boundary into the IWX area. Given the shear and instability
the potential for widespread damaging winds. This pattern favors
squall line and bowing segments...which would also support the
development of weak tornado formation along and embedded in these
lines. Additionally there will be an abundance of boundary layer
moisture and expect that rainfall amounts will easily exceed 1 to
1.5 inches in many locations...especially during the evening and
overnight period.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Long wave pattern over the CONUS will continue to favor a period of
unsettled weather for the Great Lakes region. With a relatively flat
and persistent ridge over the Southern Rockies a seemingly regular
barrage of short waves will eject across the northern tier states
through the extended period.
In the wake of the MCC/MCS Thursday morning...lingering showers will
shift south and east. A return to cooler and drier airmass in the
cyclonic flow from Friday and Saturday before another system dives
out of the Rockies and affects the Great Lakes Region Sunday.
As this system exits there does appear to be a deepening of the trof
over the Great Lakes region and this should usher in another round
of cooler and drier air for the beginning of next workweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Cdfnt movg through nrn IN attm should pass FWA by 06z. Convection
has mostly waned as airmass stabilized so a dry fcst for the TAFs
overnight. Drier air will move in behind the front resulting in
vfr conditions through the day with only a few cu expected.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...Lewis
LONG TERM...Lewis
AVIATION...JT
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The Long Term section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Westerly flow around 25 kts at 850mb this evening in combination with
an approaching frontal system will probably keep threat of convection
around the KIND terminal going for several more hours. Threat should
gradually shift south with time, ending around 210500Z. Will make
some minor timing adjustments to convection in the forecast. Previous
discussion follows.
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The Long Term section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM
continue to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the
east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Guidance depicts ridging building back across the area early in the
long term period, which may give the area a brief respite from
thunderstorm chances before the ridge again flattens out and allows
one or more upper level disturbances to impact the area.
Thunderstorm chances will be reintroduced Saturday night and will be
required most periods through the end of the forecast.
Temperatures will likely be near to slightly above normal throughout
the period, and blended initialization handled this well.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Westerly flow around 25 kts at 850mb this evening in combination with
an approaching frontal system will probably keep threat of convection
around the KIND terminal going for several more hours. Threat should
gradually shift south with time, ending around 210500Z. Will make
some minor timing adjustments to convection in the forecast. Previous
discussion follows.
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM continue
to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Westerly flow around 25 kts at 850mb this evening in combination with
an approaching frontal system will probably keep threat of convection
around the KIND terminal going for several more hours. Threat should
gradually shift south with time, ending around 210500Z. Will make
some minor timing adjustments to convection in the forecast. Previous
discussion follows.
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
A cool front will sag south of central Indiana today...bringing
dry and slightly cooler weather to central Indiana today and
tonight. However...a warm front and strong upper level weather
disturbance is expected to push to the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Wednesday night...producing more chances for
Thunderstorms...some of which could be severe...particularly
across northern parts of Indiana. More storms will be possible on
Thursday as a Cold front sags south across Indiana.
Cooler weather and High pressure is expected to arrive for
Friday as High pressure arrives in the area. The cooler
temperatures will be short lived...as warm and humid southerly
flow returns for the weekend. Chances for more showers and
thunderstorms return early next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
Central Indiana...mainly south of I-70. High pressure was found
across the northern plains. Thunderstorms ahead of the front were
sagging southward toward the Ohio River in Southern Indiana. Water
vapor shows broad high pressure in place aloft across the American
southwest with northwest flow in place across the upper midwest
and into Indiana.
Forecast soundings and time heights today show a dry column
expected across the area as subsidence builds along with surface
high pressure quickly moving through the area. Forecast soundings
show convective temps in the lower 90s...along with a mid level
level inversion. PLenty of dry air within the column also. Thus
after any lingering debris clouds exit this morning from departing
convection...mostly sunny skies will be expected with only a few
CU this afternoon. Will use a blend on High temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
quiet weather is expected to persist tonight as the GFS and NAM continue
to suggest that the surface high will quickly depart to the east.
Forecast soundings and time heights remain dry...with subsidence.
Thus will trend toward a mostly clear sky overnight. Warm air
advection is expected to begin overnight...and will trend toward
the warmer side of guidance because of this.
Active weather day in store for Wednesday as both the NAM and the
GFS depict a short wave moving across the southern Great Lakes as
a warm front with very warm air behind it surges into the region.
Forecast soundings show plentiful moisture available as these
features pass with CAPE on wednesday afternoon in excess of 2500
j/kg. bulk lower level shear also looking very favorable during
the afternoon and into the evening. the 310K GFS Isentropic
Surface is particularly impressive...showing flow straight up the
surface along with specific humidities in excess of 7 g/kg. Thus
all the required ingredients for storms appear to be coming
together and will trend pops higher across the forecast
area...particularly across the northeast...where dynamics aloft
should be best. Given all of this fuel and shear...severe storm
threat as suggested by SPC seems reasonable...with damaging winds
being the main threat. One caveat...forecast soundings in the
wake of the warm front show very warm 700mb temps in excess of
10C. This may provide capping and lessen convection...particularly
in the southwest where warm air will arrive first. Overall...will
trend pops higher than mavmos...and tend temps warmer
also...particularly across the southwest where warm air will
arrive first.
Forcing will depart on Wednesday night...leading to a brief lull
in convective activity. Indiana will be in the warm sector
overnight with warm s-sw flow in place along with a thermal ridge
at 850mb with values near 21c as suggested by GFS. Thus will try
and trend toward a dry overnight period as capping and warm air
arrives...but as a lingering evening short cannot be ruled out
with the evolution of the departing convection....especially
across the north and northeast. Will trend lows warmer than
mavmos.
GFS and nam suggest the cold front sags across the area on
Thursday. as low pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes.
As the front passes...a decent associated short wave passes
aloft...providing forcing. Decent lower level saturation is seen
with the forecast soundings on Thursday morning ahead of the
front...but those 700mb temps remain pretty warm...near 11c. By
afternoon...dry air and subsidence builds within the column as
high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out showers/storms on
Thursday morning for now...but overall chance for rain will be
decreasing as the day goes on during thursday night.
Finally...dry weather is expected on Thursday night as High
pressure...subsidence and ridging aloft build across Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Westerly flow around 25 kts at 850mb this evening in combination with
an approaching frontal system will probably keep threat of convection
around the KIND terminal going for several more hours. Threat should
gradually shift south with time, ending around 210500Z. Will make
some minor timing adjustments to convection in the forecast. Previous
discussion follows.
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1234 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 am edt Tue Jun 21 2016
A chance of thunderstorms continues south of U.S. Route 24 early
this morning as a cold front moves through the area. Fair weather is
expected Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will
return northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks
out of the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized heavy
rainfall. Lows tonight will range from 60 to 65. High temperatures
on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Cdfnt movg through nrn IN attm should pass FWA by 06z. Convection
has mostly waned as airmass stabilized so a dry fcst for the TAFs
overnight. Drier air will move in behind the front resulting in
vfr conditions through the day with only a few cu expected.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...jt
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...JT
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1234 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 am edt Tue Jun 21 2016
A chance of thunderstorms continues south of U.S. Route 24 early
this morning as a cold front moves through the area. Fair weather is
expected Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will
return northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks
out of the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized heavy
rainfall. Lows tonight will range from 60 to 65. High temperatures
on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Cdfnt movg through nrn IN attm should pass FWA by 06z. Convection
has mostly waned as airmass stabilized so a dry fcst for the TAFs
overnight. Drier air will move in behind the front resulting in
vfr conditions through the day with only a few cu expected.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...jt
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...JT
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
100 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/06Z TAFS/...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Westerly flow around 25 kts at 850mb this evening in combination with
an approaching frontal system and an upper wave pushing through Illinois
is resulting in scattered convective clusters across the area. Activity is
tending in increase in coverage over eastern Illinois, so it appears the
more southern terminals, KIND/KHUF/KBMG, will probably experience direct
impacts from convection through about 210900Z when the upper wave will
pass off to the east. Brief IFR visibility restrictions, along with gusty
shifting winds, can be expected in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, expecting layered cloud cover at or above 050. These layers will
tend to thin out with time after sunrise Tuesday. Surface winds generally
7 kts or less, outside of convective areas, will become 290-310 degrees at
10-13 kts by midday Tuesday.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1234 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A chance of thunderstorms continues south of U.S. Route 24 early
this morning as a cold front moves A cold front moves through the
area. Fair weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night behind
the front. This front will return northward on Wednesday as an
upper level disturbance tracks out of the northern Plains. This
will result in a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms, with
the possibility of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night, along with localized heavy rainfall. Lows tonight will
range from 60 to 65. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Cdfnt movg through nrn IN attm should pass FWA by 06z. Convection
has mostly waned as airmass stabilized so a dry fcst for the TAFs
overnight. Drier air will move in behind the front resulting in
vfr conditions through the day with only a few cu expected.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...jt
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...JT
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1234 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A chance of thunderstorms continues south of U.S. Route 24 early
this morning as a cold front moves A cold front moves through the
area. Fair weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night behind
the front. This front will return northward on Wednesday as an
upper level disturbance tracks out of the northern Plains. This
will result in a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms, with
the possibility of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night, along with localized heavy rainfall. Lows tonight will
range from 60 to 65. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Tue Jun 21 2016
Cdfnt movg through nrn IN attm should pass FWA by 06z. Convection
has mostly waned as airmass stabilized so a dry fcst for the TAFs
overnight. Drier air will move in behind the front resulting in
vfr conditions through the day with only a few cu expected.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...jt
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...JT
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Westerly flow around 25 kts at 850mb this evening in combination with
an approaching frontal system will probably keep threat of convection
around the KIND terminal going for several more hours. Threat should
gradually shift south with time, ending around 210500Z. Will make
some minor timing adjustments to convection in the forecast. Previous
discussion follows.
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A cold front dropping across the area will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to northern Indiana and northwest Ohio this
evening. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and brief torrential rainfall. Quiet conditions are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will return
northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks out of
the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized
heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will range from 60 to 65. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Thunderstorms which initiated along enhanced low level moisture
axis have now slipped south of the terminals. Temps and dew points
have recovered quickly to the north of these storms, with greatest
MUCAPE axis across far northwest Indiana and southwest lower
Michigan. With upper trough gradually sinking south across Great
Lakes and frontal boundary about to push across northern Indiana,
hard to completely discount isolated thunder developing over next
few hours, but will omit from TAFS with low probabilities for
terminal point forecasts. Quiet weather expected for the remainder
of the TAF period, with gusty west-northwest winds on Tuesday
to around 20 knots with mainly clear skies.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Marsili
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A cold front dropping across the area will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to northern Indiana and northwest Ohio this
evening. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and brief torrential rainfall. Quiet conditions are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will return
northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks out of
the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized
heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will range from 60 to 65. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Thunderstorms which initiated along enhanced low level moisture
axis have now slipped south of the terminals. Temps and dew points
have recovered quickly to the north of these storms, with greatest
MUCAPE axis across far northwest Indiana and southwest lower
Michigan. With upper trough gradually sinking south across Great
Lakes and frontal boundary about to push across northern Indiana,
hard to completely discount isolated thunder developing over next
few hours, but will omit from TAFS with low probabilities for
terminal point forecasts. Quiet weather expected for the remainder
of the TAF period, with gusty west-northwest winds on Tuesday
to around 20 knots with mainly clear skies.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Marsili
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
636 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 636 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
636 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 636 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Convective clusters continue to drift southeast through northern
Indiana ahead of a cold front. Model data suggest the local area
is close to being capped off, especially western Indiana. As a
result, confidence is low as to how far west current convection
will get. Appears KLAF, and possibly KIND, stand the best chance
of direct impacts this evening. Westerly 850mb flow 20-25 kts
tonight, combined with the approach of an upper wave currently
over southern Iowa and northern Missouri, should help to keep
some threat of convection most of the night as the front drifts
south. Brief IFR visibility restricitions, and gusty shifting
winds in and near convection. CB bases around 045.
Otherwise, surface winds 230-260 degrees at 10-14 kts early this
evening expected to diminish to 7 kts or less by late tonight,
along with a gradual veering of direction with the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
435 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 202100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 435 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Convective clusters developing currently developing over northern
Indiana into northeast Illinois, ahead of a cold front. Air mass
south of convection is moderately unstable, so additional
development is possible. Appears convective threat at the KIND
terminal will increase after about 210000Z-210100Z.
Previous discussion follows.
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period with the
exception of brief restrictions within thunderstorms.
Increasingly moist unstable airmass over the region with a well
developed cu field now established. Frontal boundary to the north
over the Great Lakes continues to approach. Expect isolated
convection to fire after 19-20Z as convective temps are met across
central Indiana. With limited coverage anticipated...will continue
with a VCTS mention at all terminals through the late afternoon
and early evening. A greater threat for convection associated with
the front could impact the terminals during the evening and early
overnight. Confidence remains lower than desired at this time however
with respect to precip coverage...so will maintain the VCTS
mention through about 06Z for now.
Any convective threat will diminish after 06Z as the front shifts
south of the region. Mostly sunny skies will return for Tuesday
morning as weak high pressure builds into the area. Gusty W/SW
winds through early evening will diminish to less than 10kts and
veer to northwest after midnight.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Updated grids, zones, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Weather
Story due to Severe Thunderstorm Watch #275 in effect for areas near
and north of Farmersburg and Edinburgh until 11 pm EDT.
Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period with the
exception of brief restrictions within thunderstorms.
Increasingly moist unstable airmass over the region with a well
developed cu field now established. Frontal boundary to the north
over the Great Lakes continues to approach. Expect isolated
convection to fire after 19-20Z as convective temps are met across
central Indiana. With limited coverage anticipated...will continue
with a VCTS mention at all terminals through the late afternoon
and early evening. A greater threat for convection associated with
the front could impact the terminals during the evening and early
overnight. Confidence remains lower than desired at this time however
with respect to precip coverage...so will maintain the VCTS
mention through about 06Z for now.
Any convective threat will diminish after 06Z as the front shifts
south of the region. Mostly sunny skies will return for Tuesday
morning as weak high pressure builds into the area. Gusty W/SW
winds through early evening will diminish to less than 10kts and
veer to northwest after midnight.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
416 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A cold front dropping across the area will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to northern Indiana and northwest Ohio this
evening. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and brief torrential rainfall. Quiet conditions are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the front. This front will return
northward on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance tracks out of
the northern Plains. This will result in a renewed threat of
showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, along with localized
heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will range from 60 to 65. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Near term severe threat will continue to be the primary
forecast
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with lead
short wave broad pre-frontal confluence/moisture-pooling zone. This
pooled moisture has led to an axis of 1500-2500 100 mb MLCAPES
from northeast Illinois across far northern Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this afternoon. Deep layer shear has also been on
increase across lower Michigan, northern Indiana this afternoon,
into the 30 to 40 knot range. With very warm low/mid level
profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts have been the main threat
to this point, and would expect occasional more intense precip
loading and core collapses to pose an additional threat of
isolated damaging winds as storms drop southward over the next few
hours, along with a possibility of some isolated large hail. Main
limiting factors for a more widespread severe event continue to be
rather weak convergence across the area and being somewhat
divorced from strong mid/upper level forcing across the Great
Lakes. Still expecting threat of isolated damaging winds/large
hail to persist as front/prefrontal moisture zone drop southward
across the area through around 01Z or 02Z. Cooler and less humid
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night behind this front with a
brief lull in more active weather as main focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts westward across the mid MS Valley.
High should reach around the 80 degree mark for Tuesday with
noticeably less humid conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Active weather still appears to be in store for midweek with
greatest concern period late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night with a potential of an organized higher end severe event. Some
inherent uncertainty still exists regarding convective evolution for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Synoptic pattern does appear to favor an
active period however as low level boundary does not make
significant southward progress, and should begin to lift back
northeastward as westerly flow strengthens in response to next ridge
riding wave across the Plains. This pattern will set up an intense
instability gradient from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Rvr
Valley which could pose a favorable track for any upstream MCS
development into the local area, particularly by Wednesday night.
Biggest uncertainty at this time is the nature of the convection
Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening and whether any discrete
development can occur. There may be a narrow window particularly
across southwest half of the area where some near sfc based discrete
development can occur late Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening.
However, at this time will continue to stress primary hazards as
damaging straight line winds with a potential more organized MCS.
Strong low level moisture convergence associated with stronger
southwest flow nosing into the area with PWATS pooling to 1.75-2.00
inches Wednesday night. With excessive column moisture and a couple
of rounds of convection expected Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Maintained mid range chance/low likely PoPs into Thursday morning,
especially eastern half with gradually drying conditions for
Thursday afternoon. A brief period of quieter weather then in store
for Friday/Saturday before next Pacific wave tops the ridge across
western CONUS on Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures
this weekend with eventual increasing rain/thunder chances for
Saturday night-Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
KIWX radar showing line of SH/TSRA dropping slowly southeast this
afternoon. Airmass beginning to destabilize out ahead of approaching
cold front but coverage of precip remains questionable in such a
weakly forced environment. Therefore will handle KSBN with a TEMPO
group while maintaining VCTS at KFWA. Gusty W/SW winds this
afternoon will shift to the NW this evening as cold front passes
through and diminish to less than 10kts tonight. VFR conditions
following frontal passage as high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Logsdon
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
406 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period with the
exception of brief restrictions within thunderstorms.
Increasingly moist unstable airmass over the region with a well
developed cu field now established. Frontal boundary to the north
over the Great Lakes continues to approach. Expect isolated
convection to fire after 19-20Z as convective temps are met across
central Indiana. With limited coverage anticipated...will continue
with a VCTS mention at all terminals through the late afternoon
and early evening. A greater threat for convection associated with
the front could impact the terminals during the evening and early
overnight. Confidence remains lower than desired at this time however
with respect to precip coverage...so will maintain the VCTS
mention through about 06Z for now.
Any convective threat will diminish after 06Z as the front shifts
south of the region. Mostly sunny skies will return for Tuesday
morning as weak high pressure builds into the area. Gusty W/SW
winds through early evening will diminish to less than 10kts and
veer to northwest after midnight.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
406 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A rather active period is setting up across central Indiana through
mid-week with several chances for severe weather. The first chance
for showers and thunderstorms will come this evening and tonight as
a cold front enters central Indiana from the northwest. The main
severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Activity
will subside a bit by tomorrow, with any severe threat confined to
southern Indiana, closest to the aforementioned front. The highest
chance for a widespread severe event will be on Wednesday/Wednesday
night with the northern two-thirds of the forecast area under an
Enhanced Risk for severe weather and the southern third under a
Slight Risk. An early round of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected on Wednesday morning followed by a much stronger round on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main severe threats will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. After a bit of a reprieve
late in the week, additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the weekend as a warm front wraps around into central
Indiana.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the near term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and into tonight.
Current radar mosaic is showing convective activity spreading
from northeast Illinois to northern Indiana ahead of approaching
cold front. The front will have decent instability to work with
when it enters Central Indiana after Mon 21Z. Current LAPS data is
showing CAPE values near 2400 J/kg in places with temps in the
low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Best chances for
severe potential will be in the Mon 23Z-Tue 02Z time frame,
quickly tapering off after that. Will leave chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the night though acoss central and southern
portions of the forecast area closest to frontal boundary.
Overnight lows are projected to range from the mid 60s across the
northern counties where there will be some clearing to low 70s
across the southern counties where clouds and rain will linger.
Models seem to have a handle on the frontal boundary, so will
stick close to a blend for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday night/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The main focus of the short term will be the threat for widespread
severe development Wednesday/Wednesday night.
First, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southern portions of Central Indiana tomorrow which will be
closest to cold front draped across Kentucky. Elsewhere, trended
toward a dry forecast across the northern and central counties.
After a bit of a lull tomorrow evening, clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will form in the warm advection spreading into
Central Indiana from the southwest early Wednesday morning.
Surface low will exit Nebraska and push convective activity
farther northeast into Central Indiana.
As environment destabilizes further tomorrow afternoon with
MUCAPES near 3000 J/KG, the severe threat will increase late in
the day and continue into the night. Impressive lapse rates in
excess of 7C and a strong 850 mb jet will be conducive to
widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadic development.
Severe threat will taper off by Thursday morning, but residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period with the
exception of brief restrictions within thunderstorms.
Increasingly moist unstable airmass over the region with a well
developed cu field now established. Frontal boundary to the north
over the Great Lakes continues to approach. Expect isolated
convection to fire after 19-20Z as convective temps are met across
central Indiana. With limited coverage anticipated...will continue
with a VCTS mention at all terminals through the late afternoon
and early evening. A greater threat for convection associated with
the front could impact the terminals during the evening and early
overnight. Confidence remains lower than desired at this time however
with respect to precip coverage...so will maintain the VCTS
mention through about 06Z for now.
Any convective threat will diminish after 06Z as the front shifts
south of the region. Mostly sunny skies will return for Tuesday
morning as weak high pressure builds into the area. Gusty W/SW
winds through early evening will diminish to less than 10kts and
veer to northwest after midnight.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
244 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
A cold front will drop slowly into the region late today and
tonight, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which
could be strong to severe. This boundary will sag to our south
tonight into Tuesday as the upper level ridge weakens and
northwest flow sets up across the area. This will set the stage
for what could be several rounds of thunderstorms through mid
week, particularly late Tuesday night into Wednesday night, when
one or more ridge riding mesoscale convective systems push through
the region. The potential will exist in this time frame for
widespread damaging winds.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 947 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
UPDATE...
Increased wind gusts slightly ahead of approaching cold front,
otherwise no major changes to current forecast. Current temps
across the area are generally in the upper 70s/low 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Updated grids have been sent.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase this afternoon across
the northern half of the area as the cold front pushes toward the
area. Ample instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
provide at least a chance for a few severe storms late this
afternoon into the evening as any storms move south/southeast
through the area. Damaging winds are typically the main threat
this time of year but fairly substantial midlevel CAPE profiles
suggest a marginally severe hail threat as well, although freezing
levels around 14kft will limit any significant hail threat.
Consensus numbers appeared reasonable with minor tweaks for maxes
and mins today and tonight. There will be at least some potential
for heat stress today with apparent temperatures topping out in
the mid to upper 90s across the area this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Focus then shifts in the short term to the potential for ridge
riding MCSs, especially late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
and again Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Given the
projected very unstable atmosphere and quite strong kinematic
fields, the potential will exist for one or more widespread
damaging wind/derecho events somewhere in the region, perhaps
impacting portions of central Indiana. SPC day 3 enhanced risk is
quite reasonable given this pattern, and would not be surprised to
see that upgraded by the time Wednesday arrives and much more is
known about the vital mesoscale details. Suffice to say, a
conditional but substantial severe weather threat will exist mid
week across central Indiana.
Consensus numbers were reasonable throughout on max and min temps,
and only minor tweaks were required.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday|/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
After the active weather for midweek...much quieter conditions
will arrive for the beginning of the extended as high pressure
builds south into the region as the frontal boundary shifts south
into the Tennessee Valley. Dry and less humid conditions will
continue through early Saturday as the high passes through the
region.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will return back north over
the weekend in response to low pressure developing over the
northern Plains ahead of a vigorous upper low. The upper low and
surface wave will track east into the northern Great Lakes by
early next week with the front moving back through the region with
chances for thunderstorms. Ridging aloft by late week will support
highs returning into the upper 80s and early 90s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period with the
exception of brief restrictions within thunderstorms.
Increasingly moist unstable airmass over the region with a well
developed cu field now established. Frontal boundary to the north
over the Great Lakes continues to approach. Expect isolated
convection to fire after 19-20Z as convective temps are met across
central Indiana. With limited coverage anticipated...will continue
with a VCTS mention at all terminals through the late afternoon
and early evening. A greater threat for convection associated with
the front could impact the terminals during the evening and early
overnight. Confidence remains lower than desired at this time however
with respect to precip coverage...so will maintain the VCTS
mention through about 06Z for now.
Any convective threat will diminish after 06Z as the front shifts
south of the region. Mostly sunny skies will return for Tuesday
morning as weak high pressure builds into the area. Gusty W/SW
winds through early evening will diminish to less than 10kts and
veer to northwest after midnight.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
South winds will bring increased moisture to the area today in
advance of a cold front. With increased humidity today...afternoon
heat indices will climb into the mid 90s. As the cold front sweeps
through later today there will be an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms. A few of the storms may be strong to severe
across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Cooler and less humid
conditions are expected Tuesday behind the front. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will impact the region late Wednesday
and Wednesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
No major deviations expected from current forecast regarding
convective/severe potential this afternoon early/evening. Lead
short wave working across the western Great Lakes this morning has
had some increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage with it over
past few hours. A modified AMDAR sounding from west central lower
Michigan would suggest that a surface based parcel of mid to upper
80s temp with upper 60s dew points would be enough to start to
overcome weak CIN arising from warmish mid level temps. Once this
CIN is overcome, this modified soundings would suggest close to
2000 J/kg of surface based instability available. The combination
of this instability and deep layer shear maximized across the
north could yield an isolated strong to severe threat through 19Z
across the far north, but progressive nature of forcing with this
lead short wave and narrow window of fully eroding CIN in
association with peak forcing from this wave should limit severe
threat.
Later today, a larger scale upper trough will continue to
overspread the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a
possibility of scattered storms developing along and just ahead of
frontal boundary where narrow corridor of more significant
moisture pooling is expected. Still expecting narrow corridor of
1500-2000 J/kg surface based CAPES to set up later this afternoon
in association with better pooling, with best chance of
isolated/scattered strong to severe storms in the 21Z-01Z period.
Confidence still on the low to medium side in regards to coverage
and strongest forcing remains north/northeast of local area. DCAPES
per short term RUC progs this afternoon on the order of 1500 J/kg
do suggest isolated damaging wind gust potential, with some large
hail also possible.
Updated forecast to be sent shortly to minorly refine PoPs for
near term trends, but otherwise no large changes anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
Severe potential this afternoon and evening will be associated with
the cold frontal passage. Plenty of convective instability...however
the hi-res short-term models have been overly aggressive with the
boundary layer moisture. 00Z soundings had lower PWAT than current
runs and this will need to be monitored closely through the morning
to see if the moisture return can be realized.
70 degree dewpoints were already observed in Southern IL/IN and as
we have seen in the past couple of events...the boundary layer
moisture has surged into the area quite efficiently.
As the trof/front approaches there will be a tightening of the
pressure gradient and the winds will begin increasing after sunrise.
The front/trof axis has continued to enhance convective development
over MN/IA/WI and water vapor imagery suggests another short wave
and associated speed max forming over CO/NE/KS. With afternoon highs
reaching into the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon, the
frontal forcing should be enough to erode the cap quickly.
All of this suggests that continuing POPs from the previous forecast
is on track...with only minor timing changes.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
The most significant concern for the extended is the next round of
convection to affect the Great Lakes region. Longwave trof over
Canada and the broad rather flat ridge over the western 1/2 of the
CONUS sets the stage for another in a series of shortwaves to eject
into the region. All of the models and a majority of the GFS
Ensembles are capturing this feature consistently. The mid-level
flow is more diffluent as the next shortwave dives across wi/mn/il
during the early morning Wednesday and the remnant convection
organizes well across IL/IN/Lake MI during the afternoon and
evening.
The biggest difference between this system is the orientation of the
moisture and thermal boundary. Models are showing a strong
baroclinic boundary extending from near FAR-MSP-DAY putting the
forecast area in a favored location for convective development.
Additionally the mid and upper level flow is diffluent across the
region and this is suggestive of a well sustained convective complex
to form and move southeast across the area. Using the consensus
forecasts and have pushed up the POP/WX and QPF for Wednesday. SPC
has put the area into an Enhance Risk and see no reason to deviate
from this plan. Expect to see damaging winds as the primary threat
with this convection, however during the overnight Wednesday and
into the morning hours Thursday there is a potential to see very
heavy rainfall along the baroclinic boundary. Do not anticipate
widespread river flooding with this given how dry the area has been,
but this will have to be watched closely as these types of systems
often evolve quickly from severe to heavy rain very quickly.
Markedly cooler weather will prevail from Thursday and Friday before
yet another system sweeps through the region late Saturday/Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2016
KIWX radar showing line of SH/TSRA dropping slowly southeast this
afternoon. Airmass beginning to destabilize out ahead of approaching
cold front but coverage of precip remains questionable in such a
weakly forced environment. Therefore will handle KSBN with a TEMPO
group while maintaining VCTS at KFWA. Gusty W/SW winds this
afternoon will shift to the NW this evening as cold front passes
through and diminish to less than 10kts tonight. VFR conditions
following frontal passage as high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...Lewis
LONG TERM...Lewis
AVIATION...Logsdon
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