Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/20/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.AVIATION...20/00z Taf Cycle
Lingering SHRA/TSRA over the FA wl diminish shortly aft sunset
this evening. VFR conds wl prevail thru much of the pd. The
exception wl be ovr parts of CNTRL and SRN AR where areas of low
clouds (MVFR Cigs) could dvlp arnd daybreak Mon mrng. Wdly sctd
convection expected again Mon aftn...but not enough coverage to
mention in the fcst attm. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1200 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Four Corners region and expand
westward through early next week, resulting in very hot weather
Sunday through Tuesday. The hottest day will likely be Monday
when many areas away from the immediate coast will be well above
100 degrees. Gradual cooling is likely for the remainder of the
week, but temperatures will generally remain above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
Warming trend has commenced today...with most areas up 5 to 10
degrees over yesterday. A large area of high pressure over
northern Mexico has started to expand to the north and west...and
will continue to as the trough to the north moves off to the
northeast. Meanwhile...onshore pressure gradients will weaken each
day through Sunday or Monday...while northerly gradients
strengthen. This all adds up to a very hot next few days.
Temperatures should trend up 5 to 10 degrees each day Saturday
through Monday. Monday still looks the hottest...when maximum
temperatures should generally range from 100 to 110 degrees away
from the immediate coast. Records will be threatened but records
are already high from previous heat waves in 2008 and 1973.
Excessive heat watches will be upgraded to warnings with the
afternoon forecast.
Other things are going on in the weather world besides the heat.
Dense fog will be a concern along the Central Coast tonight into
Saturday...and smoke will affect much of the area south and east
of Santa Barbara from the Sherpa Fire. Gusty Sundowner winds are
likely each night through Monday night...which will not help
firefighting efforts. The strongest winds are expected Saturday
Night and Sunday night when the winds turn more northerly and
Montecito will be in the crosshairs for gusts into the 40 mph
range. This boost may combine with the increasing heat to bring
red flag conditions. Some northerly winds will also affect the
I-5 corridor and areas to the south during this time...though wind
advisories do not look needed.
Convection is also in the picture. Thunderstorms currently over
west-central Mexico should rotate through southern California on
Sunday. This will bring some high clouds...but more importantly a
potential for dry lightning which would create a serious fire
starting source. The best chances are over Los Angeles County.
Confidence is always very low for such scenarios...but this will
have to monitored closely.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
A trough off the northern California coast will nudge the high
pressure center to the east a touch...and help onshore pressure
gradients to return by the afternoon. This should allow coastal
and valley areas to cool some...but it will remain hot and well
above normal. Interior areas will not feel any affects from this
and excessively hot conditions look likely. The one wrinkle to
this is a large batch of high clouds that should fill the sky and
dampen some of the sun`s warming...but probably not too much. The
cooling trend will continue into Thursday and Friday as the trough
asserts itself more and the ridge retreats to the east. Expecting
some low clouds and fog to return as is custom for this time of
the year...and dense fog would be a concern when it does return.
The shift in the high will also allow for a window of southerly
flow aloft sometime from Tuesday through Thursday. Convection will
be possible as a result...though most of the moisture will be well
above the ground. Wednesday has the best shot of something...and a
slight chance was added to the mountains and deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...18/0600Z.
At 06Z, the marine layer depth was around 500 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the marine inversion was around 1400 feet with a
temperature around 24 degrees Celsius.
North of Point Conception...VLIFR to LIFR conditions will become
prevalent through 10Z at coastal terminals. VFR conditions will
redevelop between 15Z and 18Z.
South of Point Conception...There is a chance of IFR to MVFR
conditions in smoke due to the Scherpa Fire through 20Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.
KLAX and KBUR...There is a 40 percent chance of IFR to MVFR
conditions in smoke due to the Scherpa Fire through 20Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.
&&
.MARINE...17/800 PM.
Northwest winds to SCA levels will continue from Point Conception
to San Nicolas Island through late tonight. Northwest winds will
likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and small
craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to San
Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will build
Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below 10
feet. Otherwise an active storm track is expected during the
remainder of this week and the swells generated from the expected
storm force fetch areas from 190-220 will begin to arrive next
week Tuesday and build through next week Thursday. Small craft
advisory for hazardous sea conditions are not expected but extra
currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are likely.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...17/800 PM.
Gusty sundowner winds in effect once again for the western
portions of the SBA South coast and Santa Ynez mountains
this evening, The Refugio Hills RAWS sensor near the Sherpa Fire
was reporting north winds 31 mph gusting to 39 mph as of 8 pm.
Current SBA-Santa Maria gradient as of 8 pm at -3.4 mb and is
expected to further strengthen during the next few hours. As a
result, looking for sundowner winds to increase slightly, with
gusts of 35 to 40 mph along coastal portions west of Goleta, and
locally up to 45 mph in the foothills. Sundowner winds expected to
remain gusty through much of the night.
Elevated fire danger then expected to occur across Southwest
California Saturday through Tuesday due to the extended period of
very hot and dry conditions combined with the already dry fuels.
During this time, humidities in the teens and single digits will
be common for areas away from the coast. In addition, the Santa
Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains will see increasing
fire danger Saturday (late afternoon through nighttime hours) as
Sundowner winds are expected to be slightly stronger and more
widespread, while humidities are expected to lower to around 30
percent or lower. There is the potential for critical fire weather
conditions across the SBA south coast and Santa Ynez mountains
from late Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. During this
time, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued due to the combination
of gusty Sundowner winds, low humidities, and hot
temperatures...bringing the potential for extreme fire danger and
fire behavior. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible for
coastal areas , with gusts of 45 to 55 mph in the foothills and
mountains. Humidities are expected to lower to between 10 and 20
percent, along with poor overnight recoveries. Meanwhile,
temperatures are expected to soar into the 90s during the late
afternoon and evening hours, and could possibly exceed 100
degrees.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning For
zone 39. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT
Monday For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM
PDT Tuesday For zones 51>54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday morning For zones 239-252. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gomberg/Kittell
FIRE...Gomberg
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Sukup
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1050 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Showers in the northern mountains and valley tonight
will end early Saturday morning. Above average temperatures will
return to NorCal Sunday through next week.
.DISCUSSION...
Showers are over the northern valley this evening and will
continue overnight. Rainfall amounts up to 0.50 inches will be
possible. Showers will diminish towards sunrise as disturbance
shifts east. Current forecast is on track and no evening update
will be needed.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis during the early
afternoon indicated an upper level low pressure system off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Moisture was streaming into
NorCal, and satellite imagery showed increasing cloud cover. Radar
returns showed scattered showers developing across the northern
valley and mountains.
Model forecasts are in good agreement with the upper level flow
pattern which keeps the upper low pressure off the Pacific
Northwest coast tonight and Saturday. As a result, shower and a
few thunderstorms are possible in the northern Sacramento Valley
and northern mountains through the early evening tonight. Showers
will continue overnight through Saturday morning.
The upper level low will begin to break down Sunday and showers
will exit the forecast area as a building ridge of high pressure
from the south influences the area. Temperatures will return to
near normal Sunday, while high temperatures Monday are expected to
reach up to 10 degrees above average in the mid to upper 90s. The
warming temperatures will bring a big temperature swing; high
temperatures will warm up by 20 to 25 degrees across the forecast
area.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure from the Desert SW extends towards NorCal early next
week resulting in max temps 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
portions of the Central Valley topping out around the century
mark. Models showing significant amount of higher level cloudiness
streaming into the area from the south Wednesday, which may
provide for a few degrees of cooling. Heights/thickness trend down
beyond midweek as upper ridging progresses, and Interior NorCal
becomes more influenced by offshore upper low/trough. As a result,
high temperatures are expected to lower to near or slightly above
normal by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
SWly flow alf with upr low off S OR cst. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs exc isold MVFR poss in shwrs omtns and N Sac Vly. Lcl S-SW
sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts ovr hyr trrn aftns/eves.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop behind an outflow
boundary moving east across the CWA this morning at 08Z and extended
from Frankfort to Wamego to Emporia. Thunderstorms were continuing
to develop behind the outflow boundary due to isentropic lift.
Mesoanalysis shows 925 mb moisture axis extending from north central
Kansas into southeast Kansas. Expect scattered thunderstorms with
moderate to locally heavy rainfall to persist through sunrise then
gradually decrease through mid morning. Boundary looks to washout
during the morning hours with east to southeast winds prevailing.
Short term models differ with initialization of ongoing
precipitation and with future development, so confidence is not
high. Will hold off on introducing any convection this afternoon at
this time and just dissipate the thunderstorms this morning by mid
morning. Expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Easterly surface
flow off the surface high into eastern Kansas will bring lower dew
points in the 60s today, which will keep the heat indices near or
below 100 this afternoon. Highs today will range from the low to mid
90s. Tonight, high pressure continue to build west across the area.
Expect dry conditions with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Winds veer to the south Sunday and southwest into much of Monday as
the eastern surface high moves of and a southern Canada/northern
tier cold front attempts to work its way south into the Central
Plains. Low level progs continue to show little in the way of
significant temp or dewpoint advection though slightly warmer
temps are likely in a more favorable mixing regime and very little
opportunity for convective remnants/debris cloud. Heat index
values will again near the century mark but should stay below 105.
Front`s progression into the area is still questionable with upper
ridge overhead and little advection behind it but small precip
chances in mainly northern and eastern areas remain reasonable
with only a modest cap and some increase in PW. Front will likely
mix back northeast of the area Wednesday into Thursday for a
warming trend again after likely slightly cooler area Tuesday.
Models do continue to show enough variability in upper ridge
placement and shortwaves topping it to keep confidence on precip
chances and degree and persistence of heat low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Cloud debris will
decrease through the morning hours. Winds will be out of the east
southeast through the period and remain under 10 kts.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Early morning convection crossing western and central Kansas is
expected to be exiting the Pratt and Medicine lodge areas between
7 and 10 am. Once these storms end the skies will clear from west
to east which will allow temperatures to climb back into the 90s
by the early afternoon. At this time based on given the rainfall
that occurred earlier this morning and the 850mb temperatures at
00z Sunday will be staying close to the previous forecast with
highs mainly in the mid 90s. Upper 90s still not out of the
question in south central Kansas. Heat index readings this
afternoon will once again climb into the 100 to 103 degree range
given the expected humidity across south central and north central
Kansas. This is below the criteria for issuing a heat advisory for
today so no headlines expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Weak flow aloft is expected late this weekend as an upper level
high becomes centered over the Central Rockies on Sunday. This
upper high will then shift west slightly Sunday night and Monday
towards the four corners region and by early Tuesday an upper
level ridge axis is forecast will extend from the four corners
region to central Alberta. As the upper level ridge axis amplifies
early next week a northwesterly flow will develop over the Central
and Northern Plains. Both the GFS and ECWMF are in good agreement
with an upper level trough dropping south out of Canada and into
the western Great Lakes Region on Tuesday as a surface cold front
approaches northern Kansas. Models do however differ on how far
south this surface frontal boundary will move late Tuesday into
Wednesday and at this time confidence is not high on which model
is more correct. The location of this frontal boundary mid week
will be key for convection and temperatures. Given low confidence
on which model will end up being more correct will continue to
stay close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation
chances and temperature trends mid to late week. Since the
CRExtendedFcst_Init is favoring the further north solution the
heat is therefore expected to continue with little if any chance
for precipitation mid to late week.
Until this front moves into the Central Plains mid week, if it
does, the unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue
across western Kansas. At this time Based on 850mb temperature
trends from Sunday through Tuesday will keep highs each day in the
mid to upper 90s.
As for precipitation chances late this weekend into early next
week will be focusing the better opportunity for late day
convection along a surface boundary Sunday night and Monday that
is forecast to be located north of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western
Kansas through tonight as surface high pressure remains situated
across the Upper Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 70 96 70 / 40 10 0 0
GCK 95 69 98 70 / 10 10 0 10
EHA 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 96 68 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 95 70 98 71 / 10 10 0 10
P28 98 71 98 71 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Early morning convection crossing western and central Kansas is
expected to be exiting the Pratt and Medicine lodge areas between
7 and 10 am. Once these storms end the skies will clear from west
to east which will allow temperatures to climb back into the 90s
by the early afternoon. At this time based on given the rainfall
that occurred earlier this morning and the 850mb temperatures at
00z Sunday will be staying close to the previous forecast with
highs mainly in the mid 90s. Upper 90s still not out of the
question in south central Kansas. Heat index readings this
afternoon will once again climb into the 100 to 103 degree range
given the expected humidity across south central and north central
Kansas. This is below the criteria for issuing a heat advisory for
today so no headlines expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Weak flow aloft is expected late this weekend as an upper level
high becomes centered over the Central Rockies on Sunday. This
upper high will then shift west slightly Sunday night and Monday
towards the four corners region and by early Tuesday an upper
level ridge axis is forecast will extend from the four corners
region to central Alberta. As the upper level ridge axis amplifies
early next week a northwesterly flow will develop over the Central
and Northern Plains. Both the GFS and ECWMF are in good agreement
with an upper level trough dropping south out of Canada and into
the western Great Lakes Region on Tuesday as a surface cold front
approaches northern Kansas. Models do however differ on how far
south this surface frontal boundary will move late Tuesday into
Wednesday and at this time confidence is not high on which model
is more correct. The location of this frontal boundary mid week
will be key for convection and temperatures. Given low confidence
on which model will end up being more correct will continue to
stay close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation
chances and temperature trends mid to late week. Since the
CRExtendedFcst_Init is favoring the further north solution the
heat is therefore expected to continue with little if any chance
for precipitation mid to late week.
Until this front moves into the Central Plains mid week, if it
does, the unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue
across western Kansas. At this time Based on 850mb temperature
trends from Sunday through Tuesday will keep highs each day in the
mid to upper 90s.
As for precipitation chances late this weekend into early next
week will be focusing the better opportunity for late day
convection along a surface boundary Sunday night and Monday that
is forecast to be located north of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western
Kansas through tonight as surface high pressure remains situated
across the Upper Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 70 96 70 / 40 10 0 0
GCK 95 69 98 70 / 10 10 0 10
EHA 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 96 68 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 95 70 98 71 / 10 10 0 10
P28 98 71 98 71 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 436 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
As a result of the outflow from the eastern Nebraska thunderstorm
complex, upslope winds have developed stratus and fog across the
area. So just completed an update to add patchy fog and increase
sky cover this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and high
temperatures through the period. Satellite showing that the flow has
changed little over the last 24 hours, and still remains amplified
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...initialized fine. At mid levels...the Canadian and
Gfs were starting out the best. The Rap/Sref were starting out the
best on the surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs and Nam were
doing the best on the low level thermal field.
Today/tonight...will be watching for as long as possible to see if
any additional thunderstorms develop before 12z. High resolution and
convective allowing models are showing both scenarios. Currently am
seeing an outflow boundary from eastern Nebraska approach the area.
That could set off more storms. At this it looks like additional
development will be minimal and left slight chance in there for this
morning.
Of additional concern is that outflow will act like a backdoor cold
front and destroy the temperature forecast. Did keep or lowered the
temperatures I inherited.
Question will be if any thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and evening hours. This will be influenced by any
mesoscale influences from ongoing convection. Heights rise through
the day. The ridge is in a couple of pieces with a sheared out area
of vorticity over the eastern portion of the area. Models showing it
moist in the lower levels with 700 mb temperatures below 15C in the
eastern portion of the area where what lift there is will be located.
Models are showing no cap. However am not sure if there will be any
lift above the surface to help this along. Currently have a slight
chance over the eastern portion of the area. At this time will keep
the going forecast but am very unsure. A problem here is if
thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain themselves, they
will be very slow movers and combined with PWATs near 1.5, could
allow for very heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridge aloft strengthens/builds over the area
and accordingly the mid level temperatures warm even more. Believe
afternoon and evening convection will be capped because of the this.
Believe models, especially the Gfs are bringing boundary too far
south during this period. Because of this and little to no lift
during the overnight hours, am going to keep pops/qpf out of the
forecast.
Strengthening ridge and warm air advection will make for warmer
maxes. Considering recent biases and 850 mb temperatures, am going
to raise maxes a little bit.
Monday/Monday night...As with Sunday night, big key is where the
front is going to end up by late in the afternoon through the rest
of the night. The Nam followed by the Canadian/Gfs/Sref have it the
furthest south. Again not sure about this. The Ecmwf has it the
furthest north and barely into the forecast area. Of course this may
get changed if convection is able to develop and push the front
further south. I may be splitting hairs here but thinking the
further north solutions appear to have the best chance to work out.
Also little to no lift aloft through this entire time with a few
weak shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge. However, the
height field changes little. Models show the air mass capped. So
kept this period dry. Considering that the front will be further
north, am going to raise maxes a little.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and high
temperatures through the period. Satellite showing that the flow has
changed little over the last 24 hours, and still remains amplified
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...initialized fine. At mid levels...the Canadian and
Gfs were starting out the best. The Rap/Sref were starting out the
best on the surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs and Nam were
doing the best on the low level thermal field.
Today/tonight...will be watching for as long as possible to see if
any additional thunderstorms develop before 12z. High resolution and
convective allowing models are showing both scenarios. Currently am
seeing an outflow boundary from eastern Nebraska approach the area.
That could set off more storms. At this it looks like additional
development will be minimal and left slight chance in there for this
morning.
Of additional concern is that outflow will act like a backdoor cold
front and destroy the temperature forecast. Did keep or lowered the
temperatures I inherited.
Question will be if any thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and evening hours. This will be influenced by any
mesoscale influences from ongoing convection. Heights rise through
the day. The ridge is in a couple of pieces with a sheared out area
of vorticity over the eastern portion of the area. Models showing it
moist in the lower levels with 700 mb temperatures below 15C in the
eastern portion of the area where what lift there is will be located.
Models are showing no cap. However am not sure if there will be any
lift above the surface to help this along. Currently have a slight
chance over the eastern portion of the area. At this time will keep
the going forecast but am very unsure. A problem here is if
thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain themselves, they
will be very slow movers and combined with PWATs near 1.5, could
allow for very heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridge aloft strengthens/builds over the area
and accordingly the mid level temperatures warm even more. Believe
afternoon and evening convection will be capped because of the this.
Believe models, especially the Gfs are bringing boundary too far
south during this period. Because of this and little to no lift
during the overnight hours, am going to keep pops/qpf out of the
forecast.
Strengthening ridge and warm air advection will make for warmer
maxes. Considering recent biases and 850 mb temperatures, am going
to raise maxes a little bit.
Monday/Monday night...As with Sunday night, big key is where the
front is going to end up by late in the afternoon through the rest
of the night. The Nam followed by the Canadian/Gfs/Sref have it the
furthest south. Again not sure about this. The Ecmwf has it the
furthest north and barely into the forecast area. Of course this may
get changed if convection is able to develop and push the front
further south. I may be splitting hairs here but thinking the
further north solutions appear to have the best chance to work out.
Also little to no lift aloft through this entire time with a few
weak shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge. However, the
height field changes little. Models show the air mass capped. So
kept this period dry. Considering that the front will be further
north, am going to raise maxes a little.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and high
temperatures through the period. Satellite showing that the flow has
changed little over the last 24 hours, and still remains amplified
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...initialized fine. At mid levels...the Canadian and
Gfs were starting out the best. The Rap/Sref were starting out the
best on the surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs and Nam were
doing the best on the low level thermal field.
Today/tonight...will be watching for as long as possible to see if
any additional thunderstorms develop before 12z. High resolution and
convective allowing models are showing both scenarios. Currently am
seeing an outflow boundary from eastern Nebraska approach the area.
That could set off more storms. At this it looks like additional
development will be minimal and left slight chance in there for this
morning.
Of additional concern is that outflow will act like a backdoor cold
front and destroy the temperature forecast. Did keep or lowered the
temperatures I inherited.
Question will be if any thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and evening hours. This will be influenced by any
mesoscale influences from ongoing convection. Heights rise through
the day. The ridge is in a couple of pieces with a sheared out area
of vorticity over the eastern portion of the area. Models showing it
moist in the lower levels with 700 mb temperatures below 15C in the
eastern portion of the area where what lift there is will be located.
Models are showing no cap. However am not sure if there will be any
lift above the surface to help this along. Currently have a slight
chance over the eastern portion of the area. At this time will keep
the going forecast but am very unsure. A problem here is if
thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain themselves, they
will be very slow movers and combined with PWATs near 1.5, could
allow for very heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridge aloft strengthens/builds over the area
and accordingly the mid level temperatures warm even more. Believe
afternoon and evening convection will be capped because of the this.
Believe models, especially the Gfs are bringing boundary too far
south during this period. Because of this and little to no lift
during the overnight hours, am going to keep pops/qpf out of the
forecast.
Strengthening ridge and warm air advection will make for warmer
maxes. Considering recent biases and 850 mb temperatures, am going
to raise maxes a little bit.
Monday/Monday night...As with Sunday night, big key is where the
front is going to end up by late in the afternoon through the rest
of the night. The Nam followed by the Canadian/Gfs/Sref have it the
furthest south. Again not sure about this. The Ecmwf has it the
furthest north and barely into the forecast area. Of course this may
get changed if convection is able to develop and push the front
further south. I may be splitting hairs here but thinking the
further north solutions appear to have the best chance to work out.
Also little to no lift aloft through this entire time with a few
weak shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge. However, the
height field changes little. Models show the air mass capped. So
kept this period dry. Considering that the front will be further
north, am going to raise maxes a little.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Upper ridge currently centered over western KS, which where the
thermal ridge resides. At the surface there is an expensive high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. On the western periphery of
that high is the remnants of a cold front that swept through the
Midwest yesterday and overnight. Ahead of that boundary dew points
have been pooling with values reaching 80 degrees. Day time mixing
has not lowered the dew points much due to the depth of the moisture
in the lowest levels. Therefore with temperatures reaching the mid
to upper 90s the heat indices have reached 110 mainly in northeast
KS. Across central KS the moisture is less deep and therefore dew
points have mixed into the 60s. This has caused the heat indices to
still reach 105 to 110 at those locations. There is still a slight
chance that the cap could break on the western edge of the moisture
although the forcing is fairly weak with the lack of overall
convergence. If that were to occur there would be the possibility of
large hail and damaging wind. Mlcape is over 3000 j/kg and the LCL
heights are rather high.
Tonight storms are expected to develop along a front in far
northwest KS and central NE. These storms will try to reach central
KS late this evening, but the chances are low at this point. As
these storms approach the area instability will decrease, but a few
storms may still be capable of hail and gusty wind mainly across
north central KS during the early morning hours. As of now the
chances for storms tomorrow are low, but what happens overnight will
ultimately determine that. The potential MCS that moves through
western KS could develop an MCV, and or outflow that redevelops
convection in our area. The models are also hinting at another MCS
in northeast NE that moves southward towards KS, and same concept
applies. The nested NAM and WRF solutions were showing showers and
storms trying to form tomorrow during the day, things will be more
clear tonight after things form. forecast soundings show that most
locations will have a strong cap in place tomorrow afternoon, so did
not increase pops much at all. One thing more certain is that the
east to southeast flow in the low levels will lower the temperatures
and dew points across the area. Also, any cloud cover or
precipitation will cause cooler temperatures. Therefore heat indices
are expected to range from 90 to 95 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Saturday night through much of Monday look to have a good chance
of remaining dry as the upper ridge strengthens again while the
boundary layer airmass remains on the drier side by the assistance
of the Great Lakes surface high. This slightly drier low level
air should also keep heat indices below the critical thresholds
for heat advisories but it will be close as temperatures will
likely climb at least into the mid 90s with dewpoints increasing
back closer to 70.
By early next week, a series of short wave troughs riding along
the Canadian border will take a slight southward shift over the
Great Lakes and appear likely to push a cold front into the local
area. The timing of this front will impact our local weather, and
it seems likely to come close enough to northern KS to warrant
slight chances for thunderstorms late Monday. Expect a cap to be
in place but any frontal convergence may be sufficient to overcome
the cap in the immediate vicinity of the front.
It looks like the front will surge a bit farther south on Tuesday,
and thus Tuesday into Tuesday evening may provide the best chance
for storms in the forecast period...although again dependent upon
where the front sets up. Where thunderstorms do develop, expect
sufficient shear and instability for storm organization with a
non-zero severe weather threat.
Beyond Tuesday night through the rest of the week, the forecast
will depend largely on the location of the upper high. Some
guidance builds it more firmly overhead while another suite of
model guidance puts eastern KS in the transition zone which could
be a focus for weak upper disturbances and occasional MCS
activity. Do expect hot conditions through this period, but again
the magnitude of the heat will be greater if the ridge can build
more strongly overhead and confidence is on the low end regarding
this evolution at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
For the 06Z TAFs, confidence remains low that storms actually move
into the terminals over the next few hours, so VCTS is not added
at this time. However, if current trends continue, then showers or
remnant thunderstorms don`t seem to be a very good occurrence.
Have not added morning fog as the expectation is that lower
dewpoints continue to work in from the east making fog or reduced
vis situation harder to occur. This seems to be supported by 00Z
guidance.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Isolated storms are anticipated late this afternoon/evening within
another moist/uncapped pbl. H925-H85 morning map analysis suggested
that limited mixing of the afternoon dewpoint will occur leading to
higher mlcapes as well as higher heat indices across central KS and
a heat advisory was issued for Barton and Russell counties. Other
storms developing over northwest KS ahead of a subtle wave lifting
over the Rockies may propagate toward central/south central KS this
evening and tonight....but slow storm motions may keep much of the
activity west of the area. Any storm that can propagate into the
area cold become severe and maintained a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook. H85 ridging over the Ohio Valley area should allow
drier air to advect over the Central Plains states through the
weekend while H7 temperatures are progged to rise resulting in an
increasing cap strength and decreasing chances for precipitation.
The good news is that afternoon humidities will drop keeping heat
indices a bit lower.
Monday...A shortwave trough moving over Manitoba/Ontario will drive
a cold front south over the Northern/Central Plains states late Mon.
The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF slowing the frontal surge on
Monday keeping it stalled near I-80.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A diffuse front may arrive Tuesday bringing increasing chances
for showers and storms. The next challenge will be how fast the
mid/upper ridge builds back over the Central Conus. The GFS keeps
the ridge southwest of the area allowing a NW flow regime to
impact the region while the ECMWF is much faster building the
ridge back over the area. Maintained low pops in the Tue-Wed
periods while trending warmer and dry toward the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A line of showers/thunderstorms will continue to spread slowly
southeast across the region overnight with gusty northwest winds.
The storms will diminish towards daybreak with winds switching
around to the east/southeast during the day on Saturday. Meanwhile
VFR conditions will prevail as the storms dissipate.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 96 72 97 / 30 10 0 0
Hutchinson 72 97 70 98 / 80 10 10 0
Newton 73 96 69 97 / 30 10 0 0
ElDorado 73 95 69 96 / 20 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 72 95 71 95 / 30 10 0 0
Russell 71 98 71 100 / 80 10 10 0
Great Bend 71 98 71 99 / 80 10 10 0
Salina 71 96 70 99 / 40 10 10 0
McPherson 72 96 70 98 / 70 10 10 0
Coffeyville 74 93 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
Chanute 72 93 68 95 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 72 92 68 95 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 73 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.
Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
324 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...
Some convection developed during the overnight hours over
Powder River, Carter and Fallon Counties. The HRRR did a pretty
good job in framing both the timing and location of this activity.
Only a few reports came in...mainly dime sized hail, gusty
winds, and occasional heavy rain. The rain will be welcome over
this part of the CWA, as things have been looking pretty dry for
a while now.
Southwesterly flow continues to dominate the upper levels, as an
upper level low progresses over the northwest US.
The main severe threat will be over the TFX and GGW CWAs by
Saturday afternoon...where the best shear and unstable air will be
located. Surface low pressure will move to the northeast and drag
a frontal boundary across the BYZ CWA by Saturday night. This will
bring with it cooler and drier air. Due to rising heights and an
abundance of sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the 90s
across much of the lower elevations ahead of the aforementioned
front. Post frontal northwesterly winds will prevail, with
occasional gusts to near 40 mph by Sunday morning.
As far as precipitation is concerned, most of the short range
models keep the main activity well to our north. The best chance
for a pop-up thunderstorm would be over Golden Valley, Wheatland
or Musselshell County, but that may not be until later in the
afternoon.
Father`s Day will be much more comfortable, with highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Singer
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Dry conditions move in during the early part of the week as a
strong ridge builds over the desert southwest. Temperatures will
be on the increase through the week with 90s possible in the
plains from Tuesday onward. Should see some impulses ride north of
the ridge and bring at least a mention of thunderstorms to our
area on Wednesday and Thursday, although global models disagree on
the timing and position of those shortwaves. Regardless of the
timing, the potential will be there for afternoon thunderstorms
after mid-week. Walsh
&&
.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms have pushed south and east of MLS and SHR.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period at all sites.
Winds will gust near 40 kts at LVM after 18Z but are expected to
remain 20 kts or below for all other sites. Walsh
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 058/079 049/080 054/089 058/095 061/092 060/090
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
LVM 089 050/075 040/077 048/085 053/088 054/085 053/084
1/N 21/N 01/U 11/U 01/B 12/T 22/T
HDN 093 056/080 050/081 053/090 058/096 061/095 059/092
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 093 060/079 051/079 056/087 060/095 063/095 064/092
1/U 11/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 097 059/081 051/081 055/090 059/095 063/095 063/092
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 090 058/076 049/077 052/084 056/090 061/090 063/091
3/T 10/N 01/U 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 094 054/079 045/079 051/086 057/092 060/090 060/087
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
This update focused on refining PoPs based on radar trends, with
the focus of elevated showers and storms in the James River valley
early this morning.
Based on recent convection-allowing model guidance, confidence in
the severe weather threat affecting northern ND tonight is still
on the increase. Per collaboration with SPC, the 13 UTC convective
outlook will likely feature a categorical upgrade to an Enhanced
Risk in the northwest part of ND given the potential for a bowing
MCS to impact the state tonight. While that suggests the primary
threat will be damaging winds, we have decided to update our
hazardous weather outlook to mention the risk of an isolated
tornado, as well. That is due to expected wind profiles and in
respect to some guidance that has maintained more discrete
convective modes into west central and northwest ND during the
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The potential for thunderstorms and a related severe weather risk
today and tonight is our focus with this forecast release.
As of 0915 UTC, thunderstorms are gradually intensifying in south
central ND as a weak shortwave trough begins to impinge on an area
of steepening mid-level lapse rates. RAP guidance shows MUCAPE near
1500 J/kg over south central ND and the James River valley through
the morning, with effective bulk wind shear in excess of 50 kt and
700-500 MB lapse rates near 8 degrees C/km. This may support a few
strong storms, and possibly a marginally-severe storm, through the
mid-morning hours. We relied on recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR guidance
to build the PoP forecast through mid morning, with likely PoPs in
much of south central ND and the James River Valley, and at least
high-chance PoPs in many other parts of the west and central given
radar trends early this morning.
Today, a warm front will slowly lift northward while low pressure
deepens in MT. The resultant southeast flow will once again draw
increasing boundary layer moisture content into the area, and we
are rather confident that dewpoints will be deep into the 60s F
this afternoon and evening. That will contribute to MLCAPE from
2500 to 3000 J/kg per the 00 UTC GFS and NAM. Forecast soundings
this afternoon and evening across western and central ND show
strong deep-layer shear (0-6-km bulk wind differences from 50 to
60 kt) with significant veering with height. Indeed, many of the
model-derived soundings are analogs to environments which have
previously produced significant supercells capable of all severe
weather hazards. That being said, weak shortwave ridging may be
the prominent feature aloft this afternoon and evening behind the
morning shortwave trough passage. The associated slight 500 MB
height rises are very often associated with enough subsidence to
prevent convective initiation, especially since low-level wind
fields in association with the northward-advancing warm front are
not very convergent. True to that point, nearly all of the 00 UTC
convection-allowing model guidance is devoid of storms in western
or central ND after the elevated activity from this morning exits
the area after about 19 UTC.
That being said, and after much deliberation, we have chosen to
maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms over almost all of the
west and central this afternoon and evening. These probabilities
reflect a very conditional possibility of a storm developing in
an environment that is favorable for supercell formation. The
decision to do this was based largely on 1) forecast soundings
which reveal rather weak capping during the peak of the diurnal
heating cycle with MLCIN generally -30 J/kg or less, and 2) the
possible presence of weak, meso- or micro-scale boundaries this
afternoon and early evening, which could provide the necessary
low-level ascent to foster isolated convective initiation. That is
a rather low-predictability scenario, but we believe it is within
the realm of possibilities because of early-day showers and storms
which could leave outflow boundaries in their wake, and the chance
for differential heating boundaries to form. The latter potential
is on our minds because both the NAM and GFS soundings display a
cloud layer between 3000 and 5000 ft AGL today in response to
boundary layer moistening. Such a stratus or cumulus deck could
unevenly develop and/or dissipate, resulting in differential
heating over relatively small areas.
Again, we have to stress how low the probability of storms really
is this afternoon, but given the possibility of severe weather if
any do form, we felt it prudent to include a slight chance in the
forecast.
The greater potential for severe storms will occur tonight across
northwest and north central ND as more meaningful height falls
cross the region in advance of a shortwave trough. Those storms
are expected to initially develop over north central MT during
the afternoon and propagate east or northeastward with upscale
growth into a linear, damaging-wind-producing convective complex
based on the CAPE-shear setting and nearly unanimous support of
convection- allowing model guidance. The main uncertainty with
those storms is how far south they will track, as some guidance
(like the 00 UTC NAM) keeps the storm complex north of the border,
across southern Canada. Some convection-allowing model suites do
the same. That being said, the ARW cores of convection-allowing
models (including the NCEP-run WRF-ARW, the NSSL WRF-ARW, and
every single member making up the NSSL WRF-ARW ensemble) carry
that convective complex across northwest and north central ND with
a formidable risk of large hail and damaging winds from late
evening onward. In fact, some members of the ARW group suggest the
storm complex may impact areas as far south as Interstate 94.
Thus, we have maintained at least a slight chance of storms in
most areas tonight, and chose to explicitly mention the risk of
of severe storms in north- west and north central ND`s text and
point and click forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Sunday will feature lower humidity and gusty northwest winds as a
cold front exits stage right, taking the chance of thunderstorms
with it. The consensus of 00 UTC bias-corrected MOS guidance that
was used to construct the wind forecast suggests sustained speeds
near 20 mph across most of western and central ND, and stronger
winds sustained around 30 mph in northwest ND. We may ultimately
need a wind headline in northwest and parts of north central ND
where the low- and mid-level height gradient contributes to the
strongest wind speeds in the well-mixed boundary layer. Forecast
soundings taken at Williston Sunday afternoon show dry adiabatic
lapse rates to 700 MB, where 40+ kt wind speeds will reside.
Otherwise, the region will lie on the northern edge of the rather
intense and sprawling subtropical ridge that will remain anchored
across the southern Rockies and Plains next week. We are carrying
a dry forecast Monday and Tuesday when the guidance consensus is
for relatively stable deep-layer northwest flow across the area.
However, from Wednesday and beyond, the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF and
their respective ensembles suggest lowering predictability with
regard to any shortwave troughs that could roll across the top of
the ridge. The intensity of the ridge suggests the main dynamics
associated with any shortwaves will likely roll through southern
Canada, but the synoptic-scale pattern nonetheless suggests that
ridge-running thunderstorms could impact western and central ND.
The multi-model consensus we relied on to build the forecast did
indeed provide a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday through
Friday. Temperatures next week warm from the 70s Monday to the
80s by mid to late week, per the multi-model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail today and tonight, but there
is at least a slight chance of thunderstorms most of the period.
Any storms that form could produce local MVFR or IFR conditions.
The probability of thunderstorms is greatest around KJMS through
15 UTC, at KISN from 03 to 08 UTC, and at KMOT from 06 to 11 UTC.
The probability of storms at KDIK and KBIS was too low for any
mention in the 12 UTC TAFs. Finally, low-level wind shear is
expected tonight as southerly winds increase aloft.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
422 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The potential for thunderstorms and a related severe weather risk
today and tonight is our focus with this forecast release.
As of 0915 UTC, thunderstorms are gradually intensifying in south
central ND as a weak shortwave trough begins to impinge on an area
of steepening mid-level lapse rates. RAP guidance shows MUCAPE near
1500 J/kg over south central ND and the James River valley through
the morning, with effective bulk wind shear in excess of 50 kt and
700-500 MB lapse rates near 8 degrees C/km. This may support a few
strong storms, and possibly a marginally-severe storm, through the
mid-morning hours. We relied on recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR guidance
to build the PoP forecast through mid morning, with likely PoPs in
much of south central ND and the James River Valley, and at least
high-chance PoPs in many other parts of the west and central given
radar trends early this morning.
Today, a warm front will slowly lift northward while low pressure
deepens in MT. The resultant southeast flow will once again draw
increasing boundary layer moisture content into the area, and we
are rather confident that dewpoints will be deep into the 60s F
this afternoon and evening. That will contribute to MLCAPE from
2500 to 3000 J/kg per the 00 UTC GFS and NAM. Forecast soundings
this afternoon and evening across western and central ND show
strong deep-layer shear (0-6-km bulk wind differences from 50 to
60 kt) with significant veering with height. Indeed, many of the
model-derived soundings are analogs to environments which have
previously produced significant supercells capable of all severe
weather hazards. That being said, weak shortwave ridging may be
the prominent feature aloft this afternoon and evening behind the
morning shortwave trough passage. The associated slight 500 MB
height rises are very often associated with enough subsidence to
prevent convective initiation, especially since low-level wind
fields in association with the northward-advancing warm front are
not very convergent. True to that point, nearly all of the 00 UTC
convection-allowing model guidance is devoid of storms in western
or central ND after the elevated activity from this morning exits
the area after about 19 UTC.
That being said, and after much deliberation, we have chosen to
maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms over almost all of the
west and central this afternoon and evening. These probabilities
reflect a very conditional possibility of a storm developing in
an environment that is favorable for supercell formation. The
decision to do this was based largely on 1) forecast soundings
which reveal rather weak capping during the peak of the diurnal
heating cycle with MLCIN generally -30 J/kg or less, and 2) the
possible presence of weak, meso- or micro-scale boundaries this
afternoon and early evening, which could provide the necessary
low-level ascent to foster isolated convective initiation. That is
a rather low-predictability scenario, but we believe it is within
the realm of possibilities because of early-day showers and storms
which could leave outflow boundaries in their wake, and the chance
for differential heating boundaries to form. The latter potential
is on our minds because both the NAM and GFS soundings display a
cloud layer between 3000 and 5000 ft AGL today in response to
boundary layer moistening. Such a stratus or cumulus deck could
unevenly develop and/or dissipate, resulting in differential
heating over relatively small areas.
Again, we have to stress how low the probability of storms really
is this afternoon, but given the possibility of severe weather if
any do form, we felt it prudent to include a slight chance in the
forecast.
The greater potential for severe storms will occur tonight across
northwest and north central ND as more meaningful height falls
cross the region in advance of a shortwave trough. Those storms
are expected to initially develop over north central MT during
the afternoon and propagate east or northeastward with upscale
growth into a linear, damaging-wind-producing convective complex
based on the CAPE-shear setting and nearly unanimous support of
convection- allowing model guidance. The main uncertainty with
those storms is how far south they will track, as some guidance
(like the 00 UTC NAM) keeps the storm complex north of the border,
across southern Canada. Some convection-allowing model suites do
the same. That being said, the ARW cores of convection-allowing
models (including the NCEP-run WRF-ARW, the NSSL WRF-ARW, and
every single member making up the NSSL WRF-ARW ensemble) carry
that convective complex across northwest and north central ND with
a formidable risk of large hail and damaging winds from late
evening onward. In fact, some members of the ARW group suggest the
storm complex may impact areas as far south as Interstate 94.
Thus, we have maintained at least a slight chance of storms in
most areas tonight, and chose to explicitly mention the risk of
of severe storms in north- west and north central ND`s text and
point and click forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Sunday will feature lower humidity and gusty northwest winds as a
cold front exits stage right, taking the chance of thunderstorms
with it. The consensus of 00 UTC bias-corrected MOS guidance that
was used to construct the wind forecast suggests sustained speeds
near 20 mph across most of western and central ND, and stronger
winds sustained around 30 mph in northwest ND. We may ultimately
need a wind headline in northwest and parts of north central ND
where the low- and mid-level height gradient contributes to the
strongest wind speeds in the well-mixed boundary layer. Forecast
soundings taken at Williston Sunday afternoon show dry adiabatic
lapse rates to 700 MB, where 40+ kt wind speeds will reside.
Otherwise, the region will lie on the northern edge of the rather
intense and sprawling subtropical ridge that will remain anchored
across the southern Rockies and Plains next week. We are carrying
a dry forecast Monday and Tuesday when the guidance consensus is
for relatively stable deep-layer northwest flow across the area.
However, from Wednesday and beyond, the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF and
their respective ensembles suggest lowering predictability with
regard to any shortwave troughs that could roll across the top of
the ridge. The intensity of the ridge suggests the main dynamics
associated with any shortwaves will likely roll through southern
Canada, but the synoptic-scale pattern nonetheless suggests that
ridge-running thunderstorms could impact western and central ND.
The multi-model consensus we relied on to build the forecast did
indeed provide a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday through
Friday. Temperatures next week warm from the 70s Monday to the
80s by mid to late week, per the multi-model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle. However, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected through about 15 UTC Saturday, with
the greatest concentration of activity from KBIS to KJMS south
to the ND/SD state line. Local MVFR or IFR conditions may occur
with any of those storms. During the day Saturday, only a low
probability of a storm exists at any given terminal, but there
may be some low VFR ceilings as low-level moisture increases.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
100 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The going forecast was on track and no substantial changes were
made with this update cycle. The showers and thunderstorms moving
across southwest ND just before 06 UTC are propagating through an
environment presently characterized by MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg,
so their strength is being limited. As the weak shortwave driving
that activity moves further east into south central ND and the
James River valley before daybreak, the convection attendant to
its vertical motion will encounter increasing amounts of elevated
bouyancy. Thus, a few strong storms are possible, as recent HRRR
simulations have implied.
UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Convection over the southern James River Valley is still having
trouble getting organized and has actually been on a downturn over
the past half-hour or so. Further west, the next short wave to
approach the area is now producing thunderstorms over
southeastern Montana into northeast Wyoming. This will continue to
track towards our area which is supported by latest HRRR model
run. Expect convection to push into the area around or not long
after midnight. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A few weak showers/thunderstorms are trying to push into far south
central North Dakota into the southern James River Valley from
South Dakota, though these have been dying off not long after they
cross the border. Expect storms to continue to try and push in
through this evening. If one is able to hold together will have to
keep an eye on it with instability increasing towards the
east. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Main forecast problem in the short term forecast is the chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure continues to build over western and central ND.
20 UTC surface analysis shows cold front has pushed into far
southeast North Dakota. Even though high dwpt air remains over the
southern James river valley, latest RAP fcst soundings for late
afternoon in this area indicate capping remaining with an
unfavorable low level flow pattern for severe weather. Will keep a
mention of a slight chance of thunder southeast tonight but best
chance for severe weather this evening appears to be south and
east of the forecast area.
Late tonight and Saturday morning both short term and medium range
models indicate possible convection developing over the northern
high plains and propagating into the western dakotas. There is also
some indication of possible convection aloft over the James river
valley. Will generally carry slight chance to chance pops across the
south and central. Northern tier counties appear more stable
overnight.
On saturday the front that moved through today lifts back north as a
warm front with warm southeast flow returning to the region. we
become quite unstable Saturday afternoon with good bulk shear.
Directional shear also becomes more favorable. However we could
remain capped, and after Saturday morning we may not have a
trigger to overcome the cap and initiate convection during our
most unstable hours. We will be warm and humid and will keep a
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Cap is too weak to not
have at least a chance of storms. If storms would develop
Saturday, severe convection would certainly be possible. Due to
the uncertainty at this time will not mention severe wording in
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Our kicker shortwave does appear in the beginning of the long term
period. Emanating from the eastern pacific and tracking northeast
into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. This will likely initiate convection
over north central Montana and southern Saskatchewan Saturday
evening, and tracking toward North Dakota late Saturday night.
There are some differences between the deterministic models with
the NAM and some of it`s associated CAM`s keeping convection
mainly north of ND. The EC and moreso the GFS keep the warm front
lifting through ND on Saturday farther south and thus keep the
northern tier counties at risk for thunderstorms late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.
A cold front moves through the area by Sunday morning. Depending on
the eventual timing, we could see some morning thunder. At this time
a consensus blend keeps all but the far north central dry on Sunday.
Northwest flow takes hold early next week, thus we should dry out
and cool down with only slight chances of showers or possible
thunder Monday, then dry through at least mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle. However, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected through about 15 UTC Saturday, with
the greatest concentration of activity from KBIS to KJMS south
to the ND/SD state line. Local MVFR or IFR conditions may occur
with any of those storms. During the day Saturday, only a low
probability of a storm exists at any given terminal, but there
may be some low VFR ceilings as low-level moisture increases.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The going forecast was on track and no substantial changes were
made with this update cycle. The showers and thunderstorms moving
across southwest ND just before 06 UTC are propagating through an
environment presently characterized by MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg,
so their strength is being limited. As the weak shortwave driving
that activity moves further east into south central ND and the
James River valley before daybreak, the convection attendant to
its vertical motion will encounter increasing amounts of elevated
bouyancy. That, a few strong storms are possible, as recent HRRR
simulations have implied.
UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Convection over the southern James River Valley is still having
trouble getting organized and has actually been on a downturn over
the past half-hour or so. Further west, the next short wave to
approach the area is now producing thunderstorms over
southeastern Montana into northeast Wyoming. This will continue to
track towards our area which is supported by latest HRRR model
run. Expect convection to push into the area around or not long
after midnight. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A few weak showers/thunderstorms are trying to push into far south
central North Dakota into the southern James River Valley from
South Dakota, though these have been dying off not long after they
cross the border. Expect storms to continue to try and push in
through this evening. If one is able to hold together will have to
keep an eye on it with instability increasing towards the
east. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Main forecast problem in the short term forecast is the chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure continues to build over western and central ND.
20 UTC surface analysis shows cold front has pushed into far
southeast North Dakota. Even though high dwpt air remains over the
southern James river valley, latest RAP fcst soundings for late
afternoon in this area indicate capping remaining with an
unfavorable low level flow pattern for severe weather. Will keep a
mention of a slight chance of thunder southeast tonight but best
chance for severe weather this evening appears to be south and
east of the forecast area.
Late tonight and Saturday morning both short term and medium range
models indicate possible convection developing over the northern
high plains and propagating into the western dakotas. There is also
some indication of possible convection aloft over the James river
valley. Will generally carry slight chance to chance pops across the
south and central. Northern tier counties appear more stable
overnight.
On saturday the front that moved through today lifts back north as a
warm front with warm southeast flow returning to the region. we
become quite unstable Saturday afternoon with good bulk shear.
Directional shear also becomes more favorable. However we could
remain capped, and after Saturday morning we may not have a
trigger to overcome the cap and initiate convection during our
most unstable hours. We will be warm and humid and will keep a
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Cap is too weak to not
have at least a chance of storms. If storms would develop
Saturday, severe convection would certainly be possible. Due to
the uncertainty at this time will not mention severe wording in
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Our kicker shortwave does appear in the beginning of the long term
period. Emanating from the eastern pacific and tracking northeast
into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. This will likely initiate convection
over north central Montana and southern Saskatchewan Saturday
evening, and tracking toward North Dakota late Saturday night.
There are some differences between the deterministic models with
the NAM and some of it`s associated CAM`s keeping convection
mainly north of ND. The EC and moreso the GFS keep the warm front
lifting through ND on Saturday farther south and thus keep the
northern tier counties at risk for thunderstorms late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.
A cold front moves through the area by Sunday morning. Depending on
the eventual timing, we could see some morning thunder. At this time
a consensus blend keeps all but the far north central dry on Sunday.
Northwest flow takes hold early next week, thus we should dry out
and cool down with only slight chances of showers or possible
thunder Monday, then dry through at least mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle. However, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected through about 15 UTC Saturday, with
the greatest concentration of activity from KBIS to KJMS south
to the ND/SD state line. Local MVFR or IFR conditions may occur
with any of those storms. During the day Saturday, only a low
probability of a storm exists at any given terminal, but there
may be some low VFR ceilings as low-level moisture increases.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad upper
level ridge extending from the Southern Plains back west over the
southwestern CONUS. There was a large upper trough over eastern
Canada with west-northwesterly flow in place over the North Plains
into the Great Lakes region. Here in Arkansas Visible satellite
imagery showed a scattered cumulus field with little discernible
organization or features of note. There were a few isolated
showers across the state...but anything that developed early this
afternoon has dissipated in 30 minutes or less.
With upper level ridging in place...think that the trend of
isolated rain showers developing and dissipating in 10-20 minutes
will continue through sunset. Large scale forcing for subsidence
should support mostly clear skies overnight until sunrise when
weak but persistent southerly flow may bring some low stratus
across parts of southern and central Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging is expected to remain in control of
the weather pattern over Arkansas on Tuesday...so expect a day
much like today across the state. Low rain chances with above
normal temperatures and partly cloud skies.
The upper ridge does begin to nudge to the west on Wednesday as
upper level troughing sinks south a bit over the northeastern
CONUS. This may allow for some breezier southerly winds on
Wednesday...however rain chances are still expected to remain very
low. The ridge is still close enough to provide some forcing for
subsidence over the state and southwesterly winds at the 850 mb
level will only bring some warmer air into the state. As a
result... Wednesday will likely be warmer with afternoon heat
index values approaching 105 degrees while temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 90s. May have to consider a heat advisory if the
warming trend continues as we get closer to Wednesday.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Not a lot to discuss for the extended term, as the upper level ridge
of high pressure will remain in control. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s thru the period, and typical
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could develop on
most days. The central axis of ridge will eventually shift back to
the southwestern US toward the end of the period, and rain chances
will increase just a bit as the ridge weakens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
Camden AR 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
Harrison AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs AR 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock AR 76 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 10
Monticello AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Newport AR 75 93 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10
Russellville AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
Stuttgart AR 75 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
After a few hours of MVFR ceilings across parts of southern and
central Arkansas early this morning...VFR conditions were in place
across the state. VFR conditions are expected to hold throughout
the day today into tonight with high pressure aloft and no
significant advection of moisture into the region.
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may develop within the
ridge axis aloft during the peak heating hours of the day
today...however the chances for an isolated storm to directly
impact a TAF site remains too low to mention in the forecast at
this time. Will monitor radar trends and amend as needed this
afternoon. Any precipitation should dissipate after sunset.
Went ahead with a few hours of MVFR cigs again tomorrow morning
for some of the southern TAF sites as the conditions are expected
to be nearly identical to this morning. MVFR cigs should scatter
out while climbing to VFR levels shortly after sunrise tomorrow
morning as well...so only have MVFR cigs in the forecast from 12
to 15Z at this time.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
)
Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...66
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.Aviation...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be possible
especially at central to southern areas of AR, but overall coverage
will be low and thin through the morning. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east to southeast to start the forecast.
Later winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
each day, mainly during the heat of the afternoon to early
evening. Severe threat will remain isolated and low with mainly a
pulse storm. Temperatures will warm again to above normal values
and elevated heat index values will be a concern.
Surface high pressure was off to the east of AR and a south wind
flow has brought dew point temperatures back to lower 70s. A
small moisture surge was also noted over southeast AR and a few
light showers were seen moving north. Also patchy stratus ceilings
have formed mainly over from the southeast to northwest per
moisture surge. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge was centered
over the western Plains, while an upper northeast flow was into
AR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Today will start partly cloudy and then become partly to mostly
sunny. Have kept and expanded a bit the slight chance of
convection over much of AR based on last two day trends and
expected factors coming together in the heat of the day and some
weak upper short wave energy. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will gradually warm again the first part
of the week as the upper high pressure holds over much of the
plains. It does move a bit more west by mid week and some possible
short wave energy may effect AR. Overall a slight chance of
convection will be kept in the forecast everyday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The gist of the long term...hot and largely dry.
And now, a bit more detail. The northern tier states will remain
beneath a progressive upper level pattern...with a couple of
troughs moving across the US/Canadian border during the period.
Models have backed off the upper pattern becoming highly amplified
by the weekend like they had previously shown, however they do
continue to show the central and southern parts of the lower 48
remaining beneath a fairly strong upper level ridge. This ridge
will keep the forecast area dry through the long term period,
except possibly the northern and northeastern parts of the state
Fri and Sat when one of those aforementioned troughs moves into
the great lakes region and pushes a front towards Arkansas. Have
some slight chances in the far northeast to account for this but
any rain will likely be scattered in nature.
In terms of temperatures...the general trend is upward through the
week. A warm 850mb thermal ridge will extend eastward across the
southern plains and into the AR/MO border region from Wed onward.
With a well mixed boundary layer tapping into those warm temps
aloft, this will push afternoon highs well into the 90s. The ECMWF
has consistently been the warmer model and have trended the forecast
in that direction given slightly higher run-to-run consistency in
the Euro. With that said...mid 90s are in the forecast most places
throughout the long term period...which is still a couple degrees
shy of what the Euro is showing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison AR 89 71 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 90 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 71 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 91 74 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Early Monday morning some patchy MVFR ceilings and fog will be
possible especially at central to southern areas of AR. Winds will
be light and variable or light from the east to southeast to start
the forecast. On Monday, winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Also on Monday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
in the afternoon to early evening. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Storms have had a hard time developing this afternoon in spite of
reasonable convergence along the frontal boundary in northern KS.
Thinking is that unless storms initiate fairly soon, the potential
should diminish with the boundary layer cooling and and a general
lack of large scale or meso scale forcing observed. Will maintain
the watch as is for a little while longer, but may be able to
clear out the counties early.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
Potential for TS in the terminals appears to be to low to mention
in terminal as storms have failed to initiate along the boundary
so far. Therefore a VFR forecast is expected to persist.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
245 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
By 2 PM on Monday, a cold front had become nearly stationary with a
very slow southward movement almost directly on the KS/NE border. As
expected, convergence on this front has been weak but persistent in
a weakly capped atmosphere, and the cumulus field has been expanding
and deepening in the past few hours. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast KS. Deep layer wind fields are
weak up through around 500 hPa but increase into the 30-35 kt range
from the WNW at 400 hPa. This shear profile leaves some question as
to just how organized convection will be, but suggests that the very
strongest storms in the areas of deepest instability may realize an
effective shear on the order of 35 kts, which could result in brief
mid-level mesocyclone generation and increased organization. Any
storms able to achieve this could produce severe hail, but the main
hazard with the stronger storms (with or without mid-level rotation)
is likely to be locally damaging downburst winds given hot
temperatures and relatively steep low level lapse rates resulting in
DCAPE around 1700 J/kg. Finally, we should mention at least a low-
end potential for landspout development given the stationary
boundary with storms developing on the front and a good amount of 0-
3km CAPE. Not a slam dunk day for landspouts but something to keep
in mind.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move toward the southeast
while outflow pushes south and southwest. The outflow may be
sufficient to initiate additional storms as it tracks toward I-70
and east central KS, but the cap is a bit stronger in those areas so
would expect more isolated development, if any. These storms should
also dissipate by mid-evening.
By late evening through early morning, the low level jet stream
intensifies and converges over northern KS just north of the surface
boundary location. RAP runs suggest that this will focus elevated
convection in southeast Nebraska, far northeast KS, MO, and IA.
These storms may again become marginally severe with hail and small
potential for strong winds. The main uncertainty with these storms
is how far southwest they will develop/propagate overnight and this
may depend on the location/strength of the surface outflow among
other factors. For now, have the focus across northeast KS.
Tuesday will be hot and humid once again, but likely dry as early
day thunderstorms will dissipate and/or lift farther northeast of
the area. Expect the max heat index to once again be in the 100-105
degree range through the afternoon and early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
On Wednesday a shortwave moving across the northern US will drag a
cold front into the area. Ahead of this front a thermal axis around
25 C will stretch into northeast KS. The models have slightly better
agreement that the front should enter north central KS around mid
day, and then move to the south-southeast during the afternoon and
evening. With the thermal axis overhead and possibly compressional
heating ahead of the front highs could reach the upper 90s to lower
100s. With dew points generally in the 60s the heat indices will
manage 100-105 across the area. Forecast soundings show a very
strong EML in place during peak heating on Wednesday. This will
likely prevent the cap from breaking despite the deep mixing and
warm temperatures. That front will then stall out across eastern KS
and be the focus for storm development during the day Thursday. As
of now there is very limited moisture behind this front, which
should keep storms confined along and south of the front. Although
the NAM shows that the cap will try to prevent convection again on
Thursday. Overnight storms may be possible Thursday night with the
front in our area and southerly flow increasing ahead of the next
shortwave. Although the stronger isentropic lift may focus to the
north. The forecast area will be back in the warm sector Friday and
Saturday therefore the temperatures will be warm again. The next
front may push through on Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest flow
aloft becomes established early next week as the front stalls out
near the area. This will continue to be an active pattern with each
frontal passage and weak waves embedded within the flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a 2-4
hour window during which TS will be possible over and near all TAF
sites, mainly focused from 23Z-03Z. Downburst and outflow winds
will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop, and expect
these winds even from storms many miles to the north to change
wind direction out of the northeast this evening with gusts
possible. Will amend as needed for TS.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch