Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/19/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
709 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...19/00z Taf Cycle
VFR conds wl prevail thru the fcst pd. Lingering CU acrs the area
this evening wl quickly dissipate shortly aft sunset. CU wl again
dvlp on Sun...with low end VFR cigs possible acrs CNTRL and SRN
AR Sun aftn. E/SELY winds wl prevail at 5 to 10 kts on Sun. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Data from local radars indicate isolated...weak convective cells
across extreme western sections of the forecast area. This
activity has occurred in a region of slightly cooler mid level
temperatures...which are over extreme west and southwest sections
of the forecast area. Any additional activity will end with the
loss of solar heating.
Dry conditions are expected for Sunday. Widely scattered...weak
convection is possible for Monday afternoon...as slightly
increased instability and low level moisture returns to the
southern half of the forecast area.
LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Overall the current forecast looks on track with model differences
and similarities not having varied greatly from previous runs. As
such, the model differences will continue to be blended but actual
model differences will not have a large impact on our sensible
weather.
Period initiates with upper ridging over the Rockies and the
southern plains. Feature will remain quasi stationary through the
period, only wobbling around a little bit. Models all bring an upper
trough across the northern tier states early in the period and phase
it with a much deeper trough sitting off the eastern seaboard. This
eastern trough deepens in response and will bring a more pronounced
northwest flow aloft to the region.
As the trough passes to the north, it will drag a cold front towards
Arkansas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Front is not
overly strong or dynamic and there are some indications it may
only get into the northeast corner of the state. As such, only slight
chance to very low end chance pops are justified.
Temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal through the
period. However, the position of the synoptic scale features will
prevent any significant intrusions of deep tropical moisture
smilier to what was just experienced. So even with slightly above
normal temperatures, humidity levels will not be oppressive.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
709 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...19/00z Taf Cycle
VFR conds wl prevail thru the fcst pd. Lingering CU acrs the area
this evening wl quickly dissipate shortly aft sunset. CU wl again
dvlp on Sun...with low end VFR cigs possible acrs CNTRL and SRN
AR Sun aftn. E/SELY winds wl prevail at 5 to 10 kts on Sun. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Data from local radars indicate isolated...weak convective cells
across extreme western sections of the forecast area. This
activity has occurred in a region of slightly cooler mid level
temperatures...which are over extreme west and southwest sections
of the forecast area. Any additional activity will end with the
loss of solar heating.
Dry conditions are expected for Sunday. Widely scattered...weak
convection is possible for Monday afternoon...as slightly
increased instability and low level moisture returns to the
southern half of the forecast area.
LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Overall the current forecast looks on track with model differences
and similarities not having varied greatly from previous runs. As
such, the model differences will continue to be blended but actual
model differences will not have a large impact on our sensible
weather.
Period initiates with upper ridging over the Rockies and the
southern plains. Feature will remain quasi stationary through the
period, only wobbling around a little bit. Models all bring an upper
trough across the northern tier states early in the period and phase
it with a much deeper trough sitting off the eastern seaboard. This
eastern trough deepens in response and will bring a more pronounced
northwest flow aloft to the region.
As the trough passes to the north, it will drag a cold front towards
Arkansas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Front is not
overly strong or dynamic and there are some indications it may
only get into the northeast corner of the state. As such, only slight
chance to very low end chance pops are justified.
Temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal through the
period. However, the position of the synoptic scale features will
prevent any significant intrusions of deep tropical moisture
smilier to what was just experienced. So even with slightly above
normal temperatures, humidity levels will not be oppressive.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
219 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Data from local radars indicate isolated...weak convective celsls
across extreme western sections of the forecast area. This
activity has occured in a region of slightly cooler mid level
temperatures...which are over extreme west and southwest sections
of the forecast area. Any additional activity will end with the
loss of solar heating.
Dry conditions are expected for Sunday. Widely scattered...weak
convection is possible for Monday afternoon...as slightly
increased instability and low level moisture returns to the
southern half of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Overall the current forecast looks on track with model differences
and similarities not having varied greatly from previous runs. As
such, the model differences will continue to be blended but actual
model differences will not have a large impact on our sensible
weather.
Period initiates with upper ridging over the Rockies and the
southern plains. Feature will remain quasi stationary through the
period, only wobbling around a little bit. Models all bring an upper
trough across the northern tier states early in the period and phase
it with a much deeper trough sitting off the eastern seaboard. This
eastern trough deepens in response and will bring a more pronounced
northwest flow aloft to the region.
As the trough passes to the north, it will drag a cold front towards
Arkansas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Front is not
overly strong or dynamic and there are some indications it may
only get into the northeast corner of the state. As such, only slight
chance to very low end chance pops are justified.
Temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal through the
period. However, the position of the synoptic scale features will
prevent any significant intrusions of deep tropical moisture
smilier to what was just experienced. So even with slightly above
normal temperatures, humidity levels will not be oppressive.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10
Camden AR 72 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 20
Harrison AR 68 89 67 90 / 0 10 10 0
Hot Springs AR 72 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 73 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 10
Monticello AR 74 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 20
Mount Ida AR 70 89 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 68 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 0
Newport AR 72 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 72 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 10
Russellville AR 71 90 68 92 / 0 10 10 10
Searcy AR 71 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
Stuttgart AR 73 91 69 91 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 10 and
15z...especially in terrain favored areas. An east-southeast
surface wind of 3-7 knots will prevail through the period across
all sites.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
UPDATE...
15z subjective surface streamline analysis indicates drier low
level air continuing to filter in from the northeast. Mid level
temperatures have warmed noticeably during the past 24 hours. Any
convective development this afternoon should affect areas to the
southwest of the forecast area.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1041 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
15z subjective surface streamline analysis indicates drier low
level air continuing to filter in from the northeast. Mid level
temperatures have warmed noticeably during the past 24 hours. Any
convective development this afternoon should affect areas to the
southwest of the forecast area.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&
.Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10
Camden AR 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 69 89 68 88 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Little Rock AR 75 92 73 92 / 30 10 0 10
Monticello AR 75 93 74 91 / 30 10 0 10
Mount Ida AR 72 91 70 89 / 30 10 0 10
Mountain Home AR 70 89 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
Newport AR 71 92 72 91 / 20 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Russellville AR 73 92 71 91 / 30 10 0 10
Searcy AR 72 92 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
Stuttgart AR 74 91 73 91 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
249 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft over northern Mexico will strengthen and
expand northward bringing a strong warming trend for inland areas
through Monday. A coastal eddy may develop on Monday night
bringing a return of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog
and a cooling trend for Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
High pressure aloft over northern Mexico will strengthen and
expand northward bringing a strong warming trend for inland areas
through Monday. High temperatures will warm to near average
today...to 4 to 8 degrees above average Saturday...12 to 18
degrees above average on Sunday...and 15 to 20 degrees above
average on Monday. This could push the hottest high temperatures
on Monday to around 120 in the lower deserts...112 in the upper
deserts...and near 110 in the inland valleys.
The GFS continues to show a coastal eddy developing Monday night
and has been doing so since last weekend. High pressure aloft will
also weaken slightly for Tuesday through Thursday. This would
bring several degrees of cooling for valley and inland coastal
areas Tuesday with lesser cooling farther inland followed by
lesser cooling on Wednesday and little change on Thursday.
The return and slow deepening of the marine layer would bring a
return of night and morning low clouds and fog to areas near the
coast as early as late Monday night and early Tuesday...with the
low clouds spreading farther inland the following nights.
The GFS does bring some mid and high level moisture northward
across the area Saturday into early Sunday...and again Tuesday
into early Wednesday. This moisture is mostly above 600
mb...sufficient for afternoon convective clouds near the
mountains...but marginal for thunderstorm development.
&&
.AVIATION...
170900Z...Coast/Valleys...Mostly clear skies will continue across
the region through Friday. Patchy coastal low clouds could develop
late tonight between 10-14Z, but confidence is low for cigs at
coastal airports for any appreciable amount of time. If cigs occur,
they would be around 900 feet MSL.
Mtns/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted visibility.
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM...Breezy conditions will develop over the outer coastal
waters each afternoon and evening through Sunday with gusts 15-20 kt
at times. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected through
Tuesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 AM...Elevated surf conditions will continue in similar fashion
today, so the High Surf Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement have
been extended through this evening. Check those hazard messages,
LAXCFWSGX, for the details. Swell and surf will gradually subside
this weekend.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys-
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for San Diego
County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Orange County
Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
232 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers north of about Marysville today and
this evening shifting eastward out of the forecast area on
Saturday. A slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Below
normal temperatures today and Saturday warming to above normal
Sunday. Dry next week with daytime highs well above normal through
mid week then cooling back to near normal by the end of the week.
.DISCUSSION...
Upper low pressure system that has brought cooler temperatures and
Norcal showers over the last couple days has shifted southward
with its center now located a few hundred miles off the northern
California coast. Weak disturbance rotating around this low and
through northern California bringing scattered light showers to
the far north state this morning. Scattered light showers are
likely to continue across the northern portions of the CWA today
as the low remains parked offshore. Stability proggs are showing
some instability in this region this afternoon so kept a threat of
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast today. Upper low finally
begins its movement eastward tonight moving inland into the
Pacific northwest on Saturday. A week upper trough rotating around
the south end of the low will bring a continued threat of showers
across the north state during the day Saturday but by the end of
the day, High pressure building back over the region should be
enough to end any shower threat. Continued below normal
temperatures today will warm on Saturday but still remain below
normal for this time of year. Ridging continues to strengthen on
Sunday as a high pressure system over the four corners U.S
retrogrades westward. Daytime temperatures warm back up to near or
a little above normal Sunday on their way upwards towards well
above normal temperatures early next week. By Monday...Daytime
highs warm to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with
subsidence under the increasing ridging bringing mainly fair
skies.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure remains in control for Tuesday and Wednesday with
above normal temperatures and Valley highs near 100 degrees.
Latest run of the GFS depicts some monsoon moisture being drawn up
on western edge of the ridge on Wednesday with a chance for
showers across higher elevations. Other model solutions not as
aggressive with dry forecast continuing. For now, have kept with
dry forecast but something to monitor as we head toward next week.
Ridge begins to shift to the east on Thursday with a trough likely
meandering across the area into the weekend. This would allow for
cooler temperatures and perhaps a shower or two but differences
remain this far out. Main change to going forecast was to cool off
temperatures by a few degrees on Thursday as all the latest
guidance is substantially cooler than advertised forecast.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
The exception will be brief MVFR conditions in showers or
thunderstorms over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains.
Southerly winds generally 8-15kts with a few gusts to 20kts
through the Delta and surrounding areas.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
232 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers north of about Marysville today and
this evening shifting eastward out of the forecast area on
Saturday. A slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Below
normal temperatures today and Saturday warming to above normal
Sunday. Dry next week with daytime highs well above normal through
mid week then cooling back to near normal by the end of the week.
.DISCUSSION...
Upper low pressure system that has brought cooler temperatures and
Norcal showers over the last couple days has shifted southward
with its center now located a few hundred miles off the northern
California coast. Weak disturbance rotating around this low and
through northern California bringing scattered light showers to
the far north state this morning. Scattered light showers are
likely to continue across the northern portions of the CWA today
as the low remains parked offshore. Stability proggs are showing
some instability in this region this afternoon so kept a threat of
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast today. Upper low finally
begins its movement eastward tonight moving inland into the
Pacific northwest on Saturday. A week upper trough rotating around
the south end of the low will bring a continued threat of showers
across the north state during the day Saturday but by the end of
the day, High pressure building back over the region should be
enough to end any shower threat. Continued below normal
temperatures today will warm on Saturday but still remain below
normal for this time of year. Ridging continues to strengthen on
Sunday as a high pressure system over the four corners U.S
retrogrades westward. Daytime temperatures warm back up to near or
a little above normal Sunday on their way upwards towards well
above normal temperatures early next week. By Monday...Daytime
highs warm to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with
subsidence under the increasing ridging bringing mainly fair
skies.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure remains in control for Tuesday and Wednesday with
above normal temperatures and Valley highs near 100 degrees.
Latest run of the GFS depicts some monsoon moisture being drawn up
on western edge of the ridge on Wednesday with a chance for
showers across higher elevations. Other model solutions not as
aggressive with dry forecast continuing. For now, have kept with
dry forecast but something to monitor as we head toward next week.
Ridge begins to shift to the east on Thursday with a trough likely
meandering across the area into the weekend. This would allow for
cooler temperatures and perhaps a shower or two but differences
remain this far out. Main change to going forecast was to cool off
temperatures by a few degrees on Thursday as all the latest
guidance is substantially cooler than advertised forecast.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
The exception will be brief MVFR conditions in showers or
thunderstorms over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains.
Southerly winds generally 8-15kts with a few gusts to 20kts
through the Delta and surrounding areas.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring breezy winds and cool temperatures through
this evening. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north
of Interstate 80 again later tonight and Saturday morning. Summer
conditions will return Sunday with potential for afternoon highs
to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Low pressure will remain off the Oregon coast keeping afternoon
winds a little breezy. Gusts on area lakes will approach 30 mph
today and tomorrow resulting in choppy conditions. While a Lake
Wind Advisory is not in effect, one may be issued later if
late morning winds are slightly higher than currently forecast. It
is best to plan for the lakes to be hazardous especially to those
that are visiting and unfamiliar with the region`s typical
afternoon wind patterns. Gusts along the Sierra Front will
approach 35 mph as well.
Otherwise, low chances of showers linger for northern California
and extreme northwestern Nevada. Chances of thunderstorms are
around 10%, so some afternoon rumbles are not out of the question
for Lassen, Modoc, and northern Washoe Counties. Elsewhere,
conditions will remain dry as low pressure lifts out of the region
Saturday and Sunday. As a result of the resurgent ridging,
temperatures will rapidly climb each afternoon. The thermal trough
will shift over the Sierra by Sunday resulting in light winds and
temperatures in the upper 80s for Western Nevada and upper 70s in
the Sierra. Boyd
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
Minor changes were made to the extended forecast this cycle. The
upper ridge is showing signs of drifting east in the model data but
the ECMWF keeps it in place for a little longer as an upper trough
starts to drop southeast along the Pac NW coast. This would support
increased winds in southwest flow but less chance of pcpn as
moisture return is cut off.
On the other hand...the GFS is leaning more toward the ridge
drifting east and developing southerly flow in the mid levels that
would support an influx of mid level moisture along with instability
leading to a better chance of convection each afternoon starting
Tuesday.
The GEFS ensemble members support both of the above solutions but
show a little more support for the GFS. Thus...we have increased
pops slightly each day...but will not go up to 15 percent as yet.
This will keep mention of convection out of the forecast for now. We
have also increased cloud cover in the afternoon each day.
High temperatures will remain above average through the extended
period with near 100 for the Western Nevada Basin and Range Monday
through Wednesday. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
Presence of an upper level low off the west coast will keep the
possibility of showers over the far northwest part of the forecast
area through Saturday. Surface winds today will be a little lighter
than yesterday as this low starts to fill and the gradient weakens.
Gusts of 25-30 knots are possible for the primary terminals with
gusts over the Sierra approaching 45-50 kts. This will result in
continued area of turbulence aloft.
Winds decrease a little more for Saturday with gusts of 20-25 kts
for the terminals. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1050 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend
and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward
from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:40 PM PDT Thursday...Light rain showers
have diminished a bit in coverage over the North Bay during the
past few hours, yet satellite and radar imagery shows what appears
to be another around of showers approaching the North Bay
coastline at this hour. Do expect isolated to scattered showers to
persist through the evening over this region while most locations
south of the Golden Gate remain dry. However, cannot rule out a
shower or two around San Francisco or as far south as Pescadero
through the night. With region-wide temperatures generally in the
60s this evening, should see most areas cool down into the mid 50s
overnight. Also expecting some coastal clouds to develop late in
the night into early Friday morning ahead of the nearly stationary
boundary to the north. With that said, the ongoing forecast
remains on track for tonight and no updates are needed at this
time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 02:50 PM PDT Thursday... Afternoon KMUX
radar imagery continues to show scattered showers moving across
the North Bay this afternoon. Spotter reports and automated gauges
have verified that some of the showers are actually reaching the
ground. A sampling of reports over the last six hours indicates
that places reporting rain received a few hundredths with the two
highest reports at a tenth near Monte Rio. For the rest of this
afternoon and tonight expect scattered showers to continue with
the greatest likelihood north of the Golden Gate. Where it becomes
more uncertain is southward toward the South Bay. Given the latest
guidance and radar trend, will continue to advertise a few showers
possible around San Francisco and the East Bay.
For Friday, the cold front will finally move through the Bay Area.
As this happens, a few lingering showers will be possible, but
once again mainly over the North Bay. Therefore, added a slight
chance for showers north of the Golden Gate on Friday.
By this weekend, high pressure currently over Texas will
gradually build westward and engulf much of the Desert Southwest.
In fact, some of the latest model guidance is forecasting record
850mb temps and 500mb heights for portions of the Desert
Southwest. As a result, a warming and dry trend will occur for
much of the region Saturday/Sunday and peak Monday/Tuesday. So
what does this mean for the Bay Area? After a period of below
normal temperatures there will be a huge shift in daytime max
temps, especially Monday and Tuesday. There will even be rather
warm overnight lows as well providing little relief. As always
with these setups, one major forecasting challenge is near the
coast and the marine influence. Latest guidance does show some
onshore flow both Monday and Tuesday, which will keep temperatures
in check. Away from the coast, temperatures will soar into the 90s
and even low 100s far interior. Overnight lows both nights will
be in the 50s/60s valleys/coast with 70s to near 80 in the hills.
This will likely be the warmest temperatures observed in roughly
two months. The airmass bringing this hot weather looks impressive
with 850mb temps in the mid 20C range...35C over the Four Corners.
That being said, there is huge bust potential along the coast.
Take away the marine influence and the temps will be 10-15 degs
warmer than the current forecast.
Medium range models keep the high press over the Desert Southwest
through next week. However, onshore does increase next Wednesday
and Thursday leading to slightly cooler temperatures around the
Bay Area.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 10:45 PM PDT Thursday...Cloud band of light rain
is still hung up over the North Bay but stratus has formed rapidly
along the San Mateo coast and northern Mry Bay Area in the past 2
hours as nighttime cooling of the airmass takes place. Thus
confidence is growing that mvfr cigs will spread into the MRY and
SFO Bay Area after 08z.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR after 08z clearing after 17z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs by 08z clearing after 17z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:50 PM PDT Thursday...A weak frontal system will
keep light winds through Friday. Winds will become northwest
Friday night as high pressure builds off the California coast.
Stronger winds are expected over the northern waters this weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1050 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend
and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward
from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:40 PM PDT Thursday...Light rain showers
have diminished a bit in coverage over the North Bay during the
past few hours, yet satellite and radar imagery shows what appears
to be another around of showers approaching the North Bay
coastline at this hour. Do expect isolated to scattered showers to
persist through the evening over this region while most locations
south of the Golden Gate remain dry. However, cannot rule out a
shower or two around San Francisco or as far south as Pescadero
through the night. With region-wide temperatures generally in the
60s this evening, should see most areas cool down into the mid 50s
overnight. Also expecting some coastal clouds to develop late in
the night into early Friday morning ahead of the nearly stationary
boundary to the north. With that said, the ongoing forecast
remains on track for tonight and no updates are needed at this
time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 02:50 PM PDT Thursday... Afternoon KMUX
radar imagery continues to show scattered showers moving across
the North Bay this afternoon. Spotter reports and automated gauges
have verified that some of the showers are actually reaching the
ground. A sampling of reports over the last six hours indicates
that places reporting rain received a few hundredths with the two
highest reports at a tenth near Monte Rio. For the rest of this
afternoon and tonight expect scattered showers to continue with
the greatest likelihood north of the Golden Gate. Where it becomes
more uncertain is southward toward the South Bay. Given the latest
guidance and radar trend, will continue to advertise a few showers
possible around San Francisco and the East Bay.
For Friday, the cold front will finally move through the Bay Area.
As this happens, a few lingering showers will be possible, but
once again mainly over the North Bay. Therefore, added a slight
chance for showers north of the Golden Gate on Friday.
By this weekend, high pressure currently over Texas will
gradually build westward and engulf much of the Desert Southwest.
In fact, some of the latest model guidance is forecasting record
850mb temps and 500mb heights for portions of the Desert
Southwest. As a result, a warming and dry trend will occur for
much of the region Saturday/Sunday and peak Monday/Tuesday. So
what does this mean for the Bay Area? After a period of below
normal temperatures there will be a huge shift in daytime max
temps, especially Monday and Tuesday. There will even be rather
warm overnight lows as well providing little relief. As always
with these setups, one major forecasting challenge is near the
coast and the marine influence. Latest guidance does show some
onshore flow both Monday and Tuesday, which will keep temperatures
in check. Away from the coast, temperatures will soar into the 90s
and even low 100s far interior. Overnight lows both nights will
be in the 50s/60s valleys/coast with 70s to near 80 in the hills.
This will likely be the warmest temperatures observed in roughly
two months. The airmass bringing this hot weather looks impressive
with 850mb temps in the mid 20C range...35C over the Four Corners.
That being said, there is huge bust potential along the coast.
Take away the marine influence and the temps will be 10-15 degs
warmer than the current forecast.
Medium range models keep the high press over the Desert Southwest
through next week. However, onshore does increase next Wednesday
and Thursday leading to slightly cooler temperatures around the
Bay Area.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 10:45 PM PDT Thursday...Cloud band of light rain
is still hung up over the North Bay but stratus has formed rapidly
along the San Mateo coast and northern Mry Bay Area in the past 2
hours as nighttime cooling of the airmass takes place. Thus
confidence is growing that mvfr cigs will spread into the MRY and
SFO Bay Area after 08z.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR after 08z clearing after 17z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs by 08z clearing after 17z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:50 PM PDT Thursday...A weak frontal system will
keep light winds through Friday. Winds will become northwest
Friday night as high pressure builds off the California coast.
Stronger winds are expected over the northern waters this weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1048 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will continue
to bring cooler than normal temperatures through Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern valley through
Saturday afternoon. Building high pressure will bring a return of
hot temperatures by mid week.
.DISCUSSION...
Very light showers over the northern valley this evening and will
continue overnight. Only very light amounts generally less than
0.10 inches. Current forecast is on track and no evening update
will be needed.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated a broad
upper level low system just off the coast of the Pacific
northwest, which is providing increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures across the region. A dry slot moving into the region
kept showers and thunderstorms from developing, including lower
snow amounts in the northern Sierra.
Short term model forecasts had a tough time today with the dry
slot aloft, so nearly every model was erroneous with placement and
timing of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As a
result, the immediate short term forecast was a tough one.
Greatest chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are for
the northern mountains and northern valley locations today. Model
soundings and surface forecasts show dry air aloft that could
translate to surface wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms, if they
develop. Storm chances will continue through Friday and Saturday.
A building high pressure from the south will begin to influence
the NorCal area Sunday, and temperatures will return to near
normal in the low 90s in the valley and 60s and 70s for the higher
elevations.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Model guidance suggests an upper level ridge building across
western U.S. early next week. Daytime highs will likely range
10-15 degrees above normal. The Tuesday- Thursday period looks to
be the warmest of the week, with widespread low 100s across the
Valley. Residents should remember to stay hydrated next week,
given the potential heat impacts.
IDM/JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
303 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Upper ridge currently centered over western KS, which where the
thermal ridge resides. At the surface there is an expensive high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. On the western periphery of
that high is the remnants of a cold front that swept through the
Midwest yesterday and overnight. Ahead of that boundary dew points
have been pooling with values reaching 80 degrees. Day time mixing
has not lowered the dew points much due to the depth of the moisture
in the lowest levels. Therefore with temperatures reaching the mid
to upper 90s the heat indices have reached 110 mainly in northeast
KS. Across central KS the moisture is less deep and therefore dew
points have mixed into the 60s. This has caused the heat indices to
still reach 105 to 110 at those locations. There is still a slight
chance that the cap could break on the western edge of the moisture
although the forcing is fairly weak with the lack of overall
convergence. If that were to occur there would be the possibility of
large hail and damaging wind. Mlcape is over 3000 j/kg and the LCL
heights are rather high.
Tonight storms are expected to develop along a front in far
northwest KS and central NE. These storms will try to reach central
KS late this evening, but the chances are low at this point. As
these storms approach the area instability will decrease, but a few
storms may still be capable of hail and gusty wind mainly across
north central KS during the early morning hours. As of now the
chances for storms tomorrow are low, but what happens overnight will
ultimately determine that. The potential MCS that moves through
western KS could develop an MCV, and or outflow that redevelops
convection in our area. The models are also hinting at another MCS
in northeast NE that moves southward towards KS, and same concept
applies. The nested NAM and WRF solutions were showing showers and
storms trying to form tomorrow during the day, things will be more
clear tonight after things form. forecast soundings show that most
locations will have a strong cap in place tomorrow afternoon, so did
not increase pops much at all. One thing more certain is that the
east to southeast flow in the low levels will lower the temperatures
and dew points across the area. Also, any cloud cover or
precipitation will cause cooler temperatures. Therefore heat indices
are expected to range from 90 to 95 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Saturday night through much of Monday look to have a good chance
of remaining dry as the upper ridge strengthens again while the
boundary layer airmass remains on the drier side by the assistance
of the Great Lakes surface high. This slightly drier low level
air should also keep heat indices below the critical thresholds
for heat advisories but it will be close as temperatures will
likely climb at least into the mid 90s with dewpoints increasing
back closer to 70.
By early next week, a series of short wave troughs riding along
the Canadian border will take a slight southward shift over the
Great Lakes and appear likely to push a cold front into the local
area. The timing of this front will impact our local weather, and
it seems likely to come close enough to northern KS to warrant
slight chances for thunderstorms late Monday. Expect a cap to be
in place but any frontal convergence may be sufficient to overcome
the cap in the immediate vicinity of the front.
It looks like the front will surge a bit farther south on Tuesday,
and thus Tuesday into Tuesday evening may provide the best chance
for storms in the forecast period...although again dependent upon
where the front sets up. Where thunderstorms do develop, expect
sufficient shear and instability for storm organization with a
non-zero severe weather threat.
Beyond Tuesday night through the rest of the week, the forecast
will depend largely on the location of the upper high. Some
guidance builds it more firmly overhead while another suite of
model guidance puts eastern KS in the transition zone which could
be a focus for weak upper disturbances and occasional MCS
activity. Do expect hot conditions through this period, but again
the magnitude of the heat will be greater if the ridge can build
more strongly overhead and confidence is on the low end regarding
this evolution at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
VFR is expected throughout the period. There is a chance for
thunderstorms mainly after 06Z, but model disagreement leaves too
much uncertainty to mention in the TAF at this time.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Heller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.
Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main issue today will be the
thunderstorms expected this afternoon for KMCK. Anticipate storms
to start a bit earlier in the afternoon than is typical, shortly
after 18z. Storms will steadily increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with a very slow movement to the north. By early
evening the storm coverage will be greatest. Any storms that
develop will be capable of producing damaging winds during the
afternoon. The storms will move east of the site during the
evening, with storm activity expected to end after 6z. KGLD should
be west of most of the storm activity.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
The upper ridge was in place this morning over the Central Plains.
Water vapor loop shows a weak mid level wave moving slowly eastward
into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Models suggest frontal boundary over
Iowa will slide southwest and reside somewhere over the CWA this
afternoon. A weak mid level wave is also forecast to drift over
central Kansas during the afternoon hours. There is little in the
way of upper level lift over the eastern half of the area this
afternoon. Will continue to focus small chances of thunderstorms
across the southwest parts of the forecast area this afternoon. Main
concern continues to be heat indices around 105 degrees again today
with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s thus afternoon with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Will continue with the heat
advisory until 9 PM this evening.
Tonight, there is some weak convergence across central Kansas within
the low level jet and near a surface front. Presence of weak
upper level wave drifting across the area will aid in developing
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Main hazards would be strong
winds and hail up to the size of quarters with the strongest
cells.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Will need to watch convective chances Saturday, but trends continue
to bring chances farther west as drier air pushes in on more
easterly low-mid level winds than earlier guidance suggested.
Morning cloud cover from any convection should dissipate by the
afternoon and provide another hot day. The more easterly winds do
however bring a slightly cooler as well as drier airmass in and the
potential for extreme heat index values continues to wane. Sunday
continues to veer winds to the south with slightly warmer air
returning, but moisture values look rather steady. This keeps Sunday
apparent temps more in check as well and confidence in anything more
than brief and local heat index values around 105 is low enough over
the weekend to cancel the Excessive Heat Watch. Monday could bring
another near Advisory level day with the front a bit slower though
an increase in low-level moisture is not apparent. Precip chances
still ramp up over the next few periods with front sinking in. At
this point Tuesday night looks the wettest with deeper moisture
pooling along the front. Upper ridge builds back in Thursday for
likely dry conditions and warming temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
VFR prevailing at terminals. Light winds and ample moisture underneath
the sharp sfc inversion layer will likely develop MVFR haze and
fog in the 10Z to 12Z time frame. High clouds with a slight chance
for an isolated thunderstorm aft 00Z at KMHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Latest upper air analysis indicates a ridge over the Central Plains
with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a dry line
was located near the KS/CO border.
This morning the dry line will remain nearly stationary then
gradually move north and east this afternoon near the north and east
borders of the Tri-State Area as the surface low over Southwest
Kansas deepens. During the early morning there may be a narrow
corridor of dense fog along the dry line. Anticipate the fog to be
very shallow, more of a ground fog, and dissipate by mid morning if
not before. During the early afternoon an upper level short wave
trough will move over the dry line and deepen, and the low level jet
will develop with the nose of the jet over the east half of the area.
Based on mixed layer CAPE/CINH storms may begin to fire along the
dry line during the early afternoon. Northwest of the area storms
will also develop along the the weak front that was over part of the
area yesterday. Mean storm motion will be north at 5 mph or less,
so once these storms develop they will not move very much. As the
afternoon progresses anticipate storm coverage to increase north of
Highway 36 then spread southeast as the short wave trough over the
dry line moves southeast around the retrograding ridge.
Due to the slow movement of these storms heavy rainfall will be
likely. Deep layer shear will be around 20kts, mainly due to
directional shear, so a brief severe thunderstorm is certainly
possible. Large hail is not anticipated to be much of a threat due
to the low deep layer shear. However cannot rule out quarter size
hail from occurring. The primary threat today will be damaging
winds during the afternoon.
Tonight storm coverage will peak during the early evening before
moving east of the area. Not entirely sure how far west the storms
will extend by the early evening. Best estimate is the storm
activity will be east of a Yuma to Goodland and Russell Springs
line. Deep layer shear increases to 30 kts on the west edge of the
departing storms, so the furthest west storms could produce hail up
to hen egg size. However this will depend on how quickly the storms
exit the area. If storms are slower the potential for larger hail
will increase, if faster the hail will be smaller. Storms should be
east of the area a few hours after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Saturday through Sunday the weather turns dry again as the upper
level ridge continues to build onto the plains. Trended highs on
both of these days a few degrees cooler given the cooler air mass
that follows the MCS over the Northern Plains south around the upper
level ridge.
Forecast issues are high temperatures and chances of precipitation
Monday through Thursday. Satellite showing an amplified pattern
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. In general, a trough
ridge and trough position is in place from the west coast of North
America to the east coast of North America. The flow along the
west coast is moving toward a split flow.
There are still model differences in regards to the amplitude and
position of the ridging aloft. However, those differences are less
than than yesterday, and are more pronounced toward the end of the
period. Again the ECMWF, especially with time, is more amplified
and further east than the GFS and Canadian. However, the GFS
tended to be a little further east than yesterday.
As a result, the region is more under the influence of the ridging.
The lift from passing shortwave troughs is less than before. There
is now less of the area covered by pops. At this time the best
chances for rainfall will be on Monday afternoon/night and Thursday
afternoon/night. On Monday despite the weak lift aloft, there is
more agreement in a front moving through. Feel better about this day
rather than on Thursday due to more model differences on Thursday.
What the extended blend gave me was reasonable and did not make any
major adjustments to it.
Because of higher heights/stronger ridging, the newer high
temperatures the init gave me were more warmer than the previous
forecast. Saw no reason to deviate from what it gave me.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Have made changes to the 06Z TAF from the 00Z TAF at GLD and MCK.
GLD will be mainly VFR through the TAF period with a brief window
of IFR to LIFR conditions between 11Z-15Z. Lower conditions are
expected mainly due to fog that models are now showing a higher
probability of occurring in the convergent area along the dry linethat
will be positioned over western Kansas. Moisture is being fed
northward into the area ahead of the dry line with dew points
currently in the middle to upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures
in the lower to middle 60s are expected around 12Z, so saturation
of the boundary layer is possible briefly around sunrise. Expect
any fog that develops to quickly erode as temperatures rise
rapidly in a cloud-free sky. Between 18-00Z, ample mixing will
help winds become gusty out of the east to east southeast.
MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period, but will have a chance
of seeing a late afternoon thunderstorm or two roll through the
area mainly between 22-00Z as the dry line moves further east
across the central high plains. Gusty east southeast winds are
also expected between 18-00Z as the atmosphere becomes well mixed.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER/JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Latest upper air analysis indicates a ridge over the Central Plains
with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a dry line
was located near the KS/CO border.
This morning the dry line will remain nearly stationary then
gradually move north and east this afternoon near the north and east
borders of the Tri-State Area as the surface low over Southwest
Kansas deepens. During the early morning there may be a narrow
corridor of dense fog along the dry line. Anticipate the fog to be
very shallow, more of a ground fog, and dissipate by mid morning if
not before. During the early afternoon an upper level short wave
trough will move over the dry line and deepen, and the low level jet
will develop with the nose of the jet over the east half of the area.
Based on mixed layer CAPE/CINH storms may begin to fire along the
dry line during the early afternoon. Northwest of the area storms
will also develop along the the weak front that was over part of the
area yesterday. Mean storm motion will be north at 5 mph or less,
so once these storms develop they will not move very much. As the
afternoon progresses anticipate storm coverage to increase north of
Highway 36 then spread southeast as the short wave trough over the
dry line moves southeast around the retrograding ridge.
Due to the slow movement of these storms heavy rainfall will be
likely. Deep layer shear will be around 20kts, mainly due to
directional shear, so a brief severe thunderstorm is certainly
possible. Large hail is not anticipated to be much of a threat due
to the low deep layer shear. However cannot rule out quarter size
hail from occurring. The primary threat today will be damaging
winds during the afternoon.
Tonight storm coverage will peak during the early evening before
moving east of the area. Not entirely sure how far west the storms
will extend by the early evening. Best estimate is the storm
activity will be east of a Yuma to Goodland and Russell Springs
line. Deep layer shear increases to 30 kts on the west edge of the
departing storms, so the furthest west storms could produce hail up
to hen egg size. However this will depend on how quickly the storms
exit the area. If storms are slower the potential for larger hail
will increase, if faster the hail will be smaller. Storms should be
east of the area a few hours after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Saturday through Sunday the weather turns dry again as the upper
level ridge continues to build onto the plains. Trended highs on
both of these days a few degrees cooler given the cooler air mass
that follows the MCS over the Northern Plains south around the upper
level ridge.
Forecast issues are high temperatures and chances of precipitation
Monday through Thursday. Satellite showing an amplified pattern
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. In general, a trough
ridge and trough position is in place from the west coast of North
America to the east coast of North America. The flow along the
west coast is moving toward a split flow.
There are still model differences in regards to the amplitude and
position of the ridging aloft. However, those differences are less
than than yesterday, and are more pronounced toward the end of the
period. Again the ECMWF, especially with time, is more amplified
and further east than the GFS and Canadian. However, the GFS
tended to be a little further east than yesterday.
As a result, the region is more under the influence of the ridging.
The lift from passing shortwave troughs is less than before. There
is now less of the area covered by pops. At this time the best
chances for rainfall will be on Monday afternoon/night and Thursday
afternoon/night. On Monday despite the weak lift aloft, there is
more agreement in a front moving through. Feel better about this day
rather than on Thursday due to more model differences on Thursday.
What the extended blend gave me was reasonable and did not make any
major adjustments to it.
Because of higher heights/stronger ridging, the newer high
temperatures the init gave me were more warmer than the previous
forecast. Saw no reason to deviate from what it gave me.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Have made changes to the 06Z TAF from the 00Z TAF at GLD and MCK.
GLD will be mainly VFR through the TAF period with a brief window
of IFR to LIFR conditions between 11Z-15Z. Lower conditions are
expected mainly due to fog that models are now showing a higher
probability of occurring in the convergent area along the dry linethat
will be positioned over western Kansas. Moisture is being fed
northward into the area ahead of the dry line with dew points
currently in the middle to upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures
in the lower to middle 60s are expected around 12Z, so saturation
of the boundary layer is possible briefly around sunrise. Expect
any fog that develops to quickly erode as temperatures rise
rapidly in a cloud-free sky. Between 18-00Z, ample mixing will
help winds become gusty out of the east to east southeast.
MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period, but will have a chance
of seeing a late afternoon thunderstorm or two roll through the
area mainly between 22-00Z as the dry line moves further east
across the central high plains. Gusty east southeast winds are
also expected between 18-00Z as the atmosphere becomes well mixed.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER/JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
228 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Precip chances return to central and portions of western Kansas late
today as short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave
cresting the ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
and northeast Colorado late this afternoon, then dropping southeast
into western Kansas tonight. As this feature approaches, a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will continue to reinforce an already fairly
moist air mass across the region...with surface dewpoints well up into
the 60s(F)...providing an ample amount of instability. Meanwhile, a
surface low will become more organized as it moves southeast into the
Texas Panhandle while a broad surface high remains settled across the
Great Lakes, creating a band of increased convergence across the
Central Plains. As H5 vort maxima and an associated upper level jet
max begin to exit the ridge axis late this afternoon, thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front pushing slowly
southeast across the high plains of western Nebraska, then spread
southward into central and portions of western Kansas overnight.
Although MLCAPE values will be in excess of 3000 J/KG based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, 0-6km shear profiles will be less than
favorable lessening the potential for widespread severe storms.
Another concern will be periods of heavy rainfall with indicated
PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, resulting in possible localized
flooding.
High temperatures near 100F can be expected again this afternoon
with little change to the general air mass across western and
central Kansas. For tonight, look for lows down into the 60s(F)
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas with the lower
70s(F) across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Drier conditions and above normal temperatures are likely through
the weekend into the early part of next week as medium range models
indicate the building upper level high across the Desert Southwest
extending northeast into the Western High Plains. Although moisture
will be abundant, an extremely weak flow aloft and subsidence will
hinder precip chances through early Monday. Will see highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F each day through Monday with little
change expected to the general air mass across the high plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through Friday evening as a surface low in
southeast Colorado moves slowly southeast into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles during the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 69 100 71 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 100 66 100 69 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 100 63 100 67 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 100 66 101 69 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 99 69 100 71 / 20 30 10 0
P28 102 73 100 72 / 10 20 20 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Precip chances return to central and portions of western Kansas late
today as short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave
cresting the ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
and northeast Colorado late this afternoon, then dropping southeast
into western Kansas tonight. As this feature approaches, a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will continue to reinforce an already fairly
moist air mass across the region...with surface dewpoints well up into
the 60s(F)...providing an ample amount of instability. Meanwhile, a
surface low will become more organized as it moves southeast into the
Texas Panhandle while a broad surface high remains settled across the
Great Lakes, creating a band of increased convergence across the
Central Plains. As H5 vort maxima and an associated upper level jet
max begin to exit the ridge axis late this afternoon, thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front pushing slowly
southeast across the high plains of western Nebraska, then spread
southward into central and portions of western Kansas overnight.
Although MLCAPE values will be in excess of 3000 J/KG based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, 0-6km shear profiles will be less than
favorable lessening the potential for widespread severe storms.
Another concern will be periods of heavy rainfall with indicated
PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, resulting in possible localized
flooding.
High temperatures near 100F can be expected again this afternoon
with little change to the general air mass across western and
central Kansas. For tonight, look for lows down into the 60s(F)
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas with the lower
70s(F) across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over
the Rockies through this weekend and into next week. A few weak
shortwaves are progged to move up and over this ridge and into the
Central High Plains. These shortwaves will create enough lift for
thunderstorms to form, generally in the afternoon and early
evening hours. In between these shortwaves, moisture and lift will
be limited leading to mostly clear skies and dry conditions. A
trough of low pressure at the surface will be present across
eastern Colorado through at least the early part of next week
bringing a southerly breeze to western Kansas. As for
temperatures, highs through the weekend look to top out around 100
degrees then slightly cool down into the mid to upper 90s early
next week. Lows are expected to generally fall to around 70
degrees with the exception of along the KS/CO border where highs
in the mid to upper 60s will be found.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through Friday evening as a surface low in
southeast Colorado moves slowly southeast into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles during the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 100 / 0 10 20 10
GCK 65 100 66 100 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 62 100 63 100 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 71 99 69 100 / 0 20 30 10
P28 73 102 73 100 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Precip chances return to central and portions of western Kansas late
today as short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave
cresting the ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
and northeast Colorado late this afternoon, then dropping southeast
into western Kansas tonight. As this feature approaches, a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will continue to reinforce an already fairly
moist air mass across the region...with surface dewpoints well up into
the 60s(F)...providing an ample amount of instability. Meanwhile, a
surface low will become more organized as it moves southeast into the
Texas Panhandle while a broad surface high remains settled across the
Great Lakes, creating a band of increased convergence across the
Central Plains. As H5 vort maxima and an associated upper level jet
max begin to exit the ridge axis late this afternoon, thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front pushing slowly
southeast across the high plains of western Nebraska, then spread
southward into central and portions of western Kansas overnight.
Although MLCAPE values will be in excess of 3000 J/KG based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, 0-6km shear profiles will be less than
favorable lessening the potential for widespread severe storms.
Another concern will be periods of heavy rainfall with indicated
PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, resulting in possible localized
flooding.
High temperatures near 100F can be expected again this afternoon
with little change to the general air mass across western and
central Kansas. For tonight, look for lows down into the 60s(F)
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas with the lower
70s(F) across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over
the Rockies through this weekend and into next week. A few weak
shortwaves are progged to move up and over this ridge and into the
Central High Plains. These shortwaves will create enough lift for
thunderstorms to form, generally in the afternoon and early
evening hours. In between these shortwaves, moisture and lift will
be limited leading to mostly clear skies and dry conditions. A
trough of low pressure at the surface will be present across
eastern Colorado through at least the early part of next week
bringing a southerly breeze to western Kansas. As for
temperatures, highs through the weekend look to top out around 100
degrees then slightly cool down into the mid to upper 90s early
next week. Lows are expected to generally fall to around 70
degrees with the exception of along the KS/CO border where highs
in the mid to upper 60s will be found.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through Friday evening as a surface low in
southeast Colorado moves slowly southeast into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles during the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 100 / 0 10 20 10
GCK 65 100 66 100 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 62 100 63 100 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 71 99 69 100 / 0 20 30 10
P28 73 102 73 100 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows larges scale
ridging extending from the Southern Plains, across the Great Lakes
region, and into Canada. Gulf and Pacific moisture are completely
cutoff from the high plains with very dry mid levels and subsidence
apparent on WV. At the surface a dry line is along the Colorado
state line, beginning to mix eastward, as Tds are already beginning
to drop in NW Kansas. Smoke from the
This afternoon-evening: Despite decent convergence along dry line, a
complete lack of upper level forcing and strong cap currently in
place lowers confidence in thunderstorm initiation. There should be
some weakening of the cap as temperatures continue to rise and dry
line mixes east, however without any large scale ascent and the very
dry air mass in place activity would be very isolated. Latest HRRR
and RAP do show an isolated signal in the 21z period, but so far
there is no initiation on satellite of a Cu field developing. I left
mention out for now, considering the lack of positive trends or
consistency. Under the condition that a thunderstorm does develop:
ML CAPE is in the 1500 J/KG, however more impressive is the 2000+
J/KG of DCAPE. Considering the dry mid levels and high DCAPE, if a
thunderstorm were to develop micorobursts would be a concern.
Tonight-Friday: A trough building in the southeast US and the ridge
center retrograding westward allows for the subtropical jet to
reestablish itself into the southern plains and the southern
Rockies. Despite this only weak forcing is advertised across our
CWA, however there should be a better plume of Gulf moisture work it
way around the ridge. In the mean time a trough in the northern
plains and it`s associated front should lead to better thunderstorm
coverage which is advertised to form into complex diving south along
the mean CAPE axis across the plains towards late Friday afternoon.
Local convective initiation may also occur along surface trough over
our CWA, or along Cheyenne ridge and spread southeast. There are
multiple scenarios depicted in guidance that all lead to better
shower/thunderstorm coverage over our northeastern CWA, and I felt
comfortable with 20/30 pops despite lower confidence in evolution.
Return flow should support moderate to high CAPE values across
eastern parts of our CWA, with unidirectional shear beginning to
increase towards 00z (Bulk shear 35 kt). Severe thunderstorms will
be possible, with shear profiles and soundings supporting large
hail/damaging wind threats.
Regarding temperatures: Highs today (as expected) have warmed to
near 100F already for eastern locations and the mid-upper 90s
elsewhere. Temperatures tonight through Friday are a little less
certain due to variances in model depictions of possible weak cold
front coming near our CWA possibly aided by outflow from convective
activity. With surface pattern in question and possibility for falling
heights I have less confidence overall. We should see another hot
day at the very least, its just we could see a greater spread in
possible highs. Another day like today, or possibly 5-8F "cooler". I
leaned forecast towards mean approach, which only shaves a few
degrees from highs today.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
After chances for precipitation Friday night, a warm and dry weekend
is ahead followed by potentially more active weather. For this
period, temperatures appear to peak on Sunday before cooling
slightly through midweek.
Friday night, showers and thunderstorms continue to be possible
as a front impacts the High Plains. There is still a lot of
disagreement among guidance regarding how this will unfold, so
kept slight/low chance pops limited to the northeastern half of
the area. If storms do develop, severe thunderstorms will be
possible with decent CAPE and increasing shear.
Dry conditions and warm temperatures persist through the weekend as
the upper ridge builds over the CONUS. High pressure advances over
the region Saturday and Sunday from the southwest and elongates over
the southern half of the country. Meanwhile, an upper low pushes
over the Pacific Northwest. This disturbance tracks eastward near
the Canadian border Sunday into Sunday night.
Sunday night and Monday, the upper low is absorbed into a developing
trough over central Canada as a cold front advances south towards
the High Plains. The front brings a slight chance of thunderstorms
to the forecast for Monday and Monday night before sliding off to
the south. As the trough from Canada edges south over the eastern
CONUS, the ridge starts to retrograde to the desert southwest. More
of a northwest flow establishes itself across the High Plains for
the rest of the longterm. Kept Tuesday through Thursday dry, but
cannot rule out precip as disturbances pass through the
northwest flow.
Expect temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees again
through the weekend before cooling occurs during the first part of
the week with the cold front passing through and ridge breaking down.
Highs appear to rise again by Thursday as ridging builds to the
west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Have made changes to the 06Z TAF from the 00Z TAF at GLD and MCK.
GLD will be mainly VFR through the TAF period with a brief window
of IFR to LIFR conditions between 11Z-15Z. Lower conditions are
expected mainly due to fog that models are now showing a higher
probability of occurring in the convergent area along the dryline
that will be positioned over western Kansas. Moisture is being fed
northward into the area ahead of the dryline with dewpoints
currently in the middle to upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures
in the lower to middle 60s are expected around 12Z, so saturation
of the boundary layer is possible briefly around sunrise. Expect
any fog that develops to quickly erode as temperatures rise
rapidly in a cloud-free sky. Between 18-00Z, ample mixing will
help winds become gusty out of the east to east southeast.
MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period, but will have a chance
of seeing a late afternoon thunderstorm or two roll through the
area mainly between 22-00Z as the dryline moves further east
across the central high plains. Gusty east southeast winds are
also expected between 18-00Z as the atmosphere becomes well mixed.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
The mid-level ridge remained anchored across the central U.S., with
southerly surface winds in place as the CWA was wedged between low
pressure to the west and high pressure to the southeast. Some cloud
cover lingered across far east central Kansas due to the
precipitation from the morning MCV. As a result, afternoon
temperatures there were a few degrees cooler than originally
forecast, but readings reached near 100 degrees across north central
Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat
indices ranged from the mid 90s east to 100-105 degrees across north
central and central Kansas. A weak convergence zone was noted in
northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, with visible satellite
showing some shallow cumulus popping up. With some isentropic lift
present on the 310K surface, the HRRR and RAP show the potential for
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up across southeast
Kansas late this afternoon into this evening, and this activity may
extend northward into east central Kansas. As a result, have added
slight chance PoPs. Mesoscale analysis showed little to no cap in
place with 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, so if storms are
able to develop they may be strong. However, wind shear continues to
look weak at 20kts or less so it should be difficult for storms to
sustain themselves for long. The main hazards with any strong storms
would be hail and gusty winds.
With the ridge still in place, expect another hot day tomorrow.
However, models show 850mb temperatures being slightly cooler
compared to today. As a result, have Friday high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler across north central/central Kansas with
readings expected to range from the mid 90s east to the upper 90s
west. Models are still showing dewpoints reaching into the upper
60s to low/mid 70s, which would push afternoon heat indices into the
103 to 108 degree range. As a result, the Excessive Heat Watch for
Friday has been upgraded to a Heat Advisory for the entire outlook
area. A somewhat stationary boundary may be in place across central
Kansas by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This nearby boundary
combined with an embedded shortwave within the mid-level ridge
across north central Kansas may help to produce some scattered
storms by mid to late afternoon. Due to the low confidence in the
timing and location of any storms, only have slight chance PoPs at
this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Friday Night through Sunday...
Friday evening and overnight provides an interesting low-probability
setup with potential for thunderstorm development across parts of
the area. Expect extreme mid level lapse rates across the entire
region, but the location and extent of instability will depend on
quality of low level moisture. Right now this appears to be better
focused to the southwest, or at least over SW parts of the forecast
area with a pretty good MUCAPE gradient increasing from NE to SW
across the region. There are signs of convergent flow in the low
levels and on a weak low level jet during the evening and overnight
hours from NW into central and SE Kansas and this added moisture
convergence could be sufficient for thunderstorm development in the
evening. Furthermore, there is upslope flow focused into NE Colorado
and SE Nebraska and if this allows convection to grow upscale and
organize a cold pool in this area, could see it propagating along
the convergence zone toward central KS. Again, this is low
probability, but there is a chance for either or both scenarios to
play out through Friday night.
Saturday looks to be slightly cooler with flow from the southeast
being a bit cooler although with neutral or slight moisture
advection. Have also forecast a bit cooler due to potential for some
cloud debris during the day as well. Current forecast is for heat
indices to a bit lower but still have some potential to be quite hot
if staying clear and/or higher dewpoints. With the excessive heat
watch already in effect, will maintain it as-is through Sunday as
things look a bit warmer yet for Sunday and with a much better
chance of being capped off to convection and precipitation and cloud
free.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Monday appears to be the warmest day within the extended period with
high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indicies approaching
100. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, knocking high temperatures back
into the upper 80s to near 90. Thunderstorm chances also return with
the frontal passage. Model guidance suggests slight thunderstorm
chances will be continue through the remainder of the period as an
upper level trough across the Great Lakes region skirts the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
VFR prevailing at terminals. Light winds and ample moisture underneath
the sharp sfc inversion layer will likely develop MVFR haze and
fog in the 10Z to 12Z time frame. High clouds with a slight chance
for an isolated thunderstorm aft 00Z at KMHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg
AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
202 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
The severe weather threat will continue through the early morning
hours, but the better part of today will be thunderstorm-free.
As of 07 UTC, a couple of discrete storms have intensified over
Morton and Grant Counties, and have displayed transient supercell
characteristics in response to increasingly favorable deep-layer
wind fields. Meanwhile, another intense thunderstorm is affecting
southwest ND. That cell is expected to propagate northeast into
and across a reservoir of stronger MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. We
expect a severe weather threat to persist through 12 UTC as these
cells cross that instability axis while deep-layer wind shear only
increases further into the 50+ kt range. Steep mid-level lapse
rates favor large hail, and any bowing segments such as those that
have been suggested by the HRRR (and as observed in recent radar
data with the storms in southwest ND) may produce damaging winds.
The early-day convection and eastward progression of a weak short-
wave trough aloft will push the surface boundary across central ND
at 07 UTC southeast into SD and MN later today. Mid-level heights
will slowly rise this afternoon, as well, suggesting that the odds
of thunderstorm development in western and central ND will be low.
Convection-allowing model guidance supports that notion, as well.
However, we are still carrying a chance of storms in the southern
James River valley this afternoon and evening in respect to MLCAPE
on the order of 2000 J/kg seen there on forecast soundings.
The chance of thunderstorms will increase tonight, mainly after 06
UTC as modest Theta-E advection occurs aloft with the frontal zone
also shifting northward. However, the 00 UTC GFS and NAM suggest
that mid-level capping late tonight may be stronger than modeled
earlier, and the low-level jet upstream in SD is modest at 25 kt.
Both suggest that the probability of late-night severe weather may
be lower than thought at this time yesterday, and it is too low
for us to make any explicit mention in the forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
The potential for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night
is the focus of the long term forecast.
The 00 UTC guidance calls for boundary layer dewpoints in the mid
and upper 60s F across most of western and central ND Saturday on
south-southeast flow as a surface low develops in MT. Steep mid-
level lapse rates will yield widespread MLCAPE of 2500 to 3500
J/kg across western and central ND, while deep-layer wind fields
will strengthen, producing an impressive CAPE-shear setting with
0-6-km bulk wind shear of 55 to 65 kt. Moreover, model-forecast
soundings display substantial veering with height, favorable for
supercellular storm modes capable of all severe hazards. Capping
is not modeled to be particularly strong by mid to late day per
the 00 UTC GFS and NAM, but forcing for ascent is questionable
without a well-defined surface boundary in place and mid-level
height rises. True to that point, most 00 UTC guidance fails to
generate any storms during the diurnal heating cycle. We still
carried a chance of storms, though, both due to the possibility
of early-day elevated convection and to cover the potential for
isolated surface-based storm development late in the day. Either
way, it appears that an MCS may cross northern ND Saturday night
after emanating from storms in MT Saturday afternoon and evening.
Such an MCS would have the potential to produce higher-order wind
damage if it occurs.
Note that the parameter space Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night remains one of the most impressive we`ve seen this season.
CIPS analog guidance also points to the relatively high threat
of all severe hazards, if storms actually develop.
Thereafter, the 00 UTC guidance agrees that the flow aloft shifts
to the northwest as the intense subtropical ridge sprawling from
the southwest US into the central Plains is flattened a bit. That
should reduce the storm chances in our region for a few days from
Monday through Thursday, before flow aloft turns southwest again
by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A complex of thunderstorms may move across southwest and central
ND overnight with local IFR/MVFR conditions, heavy rainfall, and
possibly large hail and damaging winds. KDIK will be impacted
between 07 and 09 UTC, KBIS between 09 and 11 UTC, and KJMS may be
impacted between 11 and 13 UTC. In addition, MVFR ceilings in
stratus will likely impact KJMS late tonight and early Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail during the day
Friday with a much lower thunderstorm risk.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1222 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
We have overhauled the overnight forecast to 1) generally decrease
the chance of thunderstorms in the James River valley until late
tonight, and 2) focus the chance of thunderstorms from southwest
into central ND from 06 to 11 UTC. Capping held on for most of the
length of the surface wind shift over central ND this evening, and
the earlier slow-moving supercell in southeast Morton County has
diminished. A few cells continue west/southwest of Bismarck and
around Rolla as of 0515 UTC, but radar trends suggest most of them
are not particularly robust. Meanwhile, convection in southeastern
MT appears associated with a more well-defined shortwave trough
and its related ascent. That convection may intensify quickly once
it enters southwest and central ND the next few hours, where there
is an axis of MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg along and east of a line
from Dickinson to Hettinger. Guidance also calls for effective
bulk wind shear to steadily increase from west to east the next
few hours. The result is that the storms coming out of MT may
become severe in southwest ND and maintain their intensity as they
propagate into central ND late tonight. Recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR
runs support this idea, especially with their updraft helicity
fields, which exceed 50 m2/s2 with their simulated storms moving
from Slope and Adams Counties northeast toward Bismarck by 10 UTC.
UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Strong thunderstorms continue south central. Heavy rain possible.
UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Latest satellite images show cu field beginning to erode the cap.
Expect thunderstorm development shortly across south central
North Dakota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
At the surface, an upper level low is located over northern
Alberta, ejecting a shortwave north into Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This wave was responsible for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Canadian border earlier this morning that
have since moved north out of the state. Over on the west coast
of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this
afternoon`s showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and
central North Dakota. A visible short wave on water vapor located
over the southern Black Hills of South Dakota will begin to nudge
into southwestern North Dakota, where a surface low and a plethora
of boundaries are present.
While most models show ample bulk and low level shear coupled with
plenty of CAPE over the forecast area, an elevated mixed layer is
currently providing high temperatures in the H8 and H7 levels,
keeping a stout cap in place. This cap should remain strong
through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of
mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level
temperatures slightly. The global models and the NAM hold off
widespread convection until well after 00-03z but the latest
iterations of the HRRR and other CAMs have been a bit more
aggressive, initiating isolated supercells just west of the
Missouri river by the 23-01z time frame. So, at this point we are
in a holding pattern and enjoying the waiting game. If storms can
realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap
suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief
tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low
level jet kicks in around sunset. This is a very conditional
forecast with quite a bit on uncertainty, and one we will have to
keep monitoring through the night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
As the pattern keeps the region in a southwest flow regime, nearly
daily chances of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
weekend, starting with a potential MCS overnight Friday into
Saturday morning.
Saturday is looking potentially like the most interesting severe
setup of the period thus far, with some of the most impressive
parameter space we`ve seen forecast this season by all the major
models. Still lots off questions with strong capping, timing, and
small scale details. However, we will have to closely monitor this
one as if models remain constant, all severe weather hazards could
be possible during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours.
More details should be nailed down in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A complex of showers and thunderstorms may move across southwest
and central ND overnight with local IFR/MVFR conditions, heavy
rainfall, and possibly large hail and damaging winds. KDIK could
be impacted between 07 and 09 UTC, KBIS between 09 and 11 UTC, and
KJMS between 11 and 13 UTC. In addition, MVFR ceilings in stratus
will likely impact KJMS late tonight and early Friday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will generally prevail during the day Friday with a
much lower thunderstorm risk.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing warmth and humidity will be the theme for the remainder
of this weekend into Monday. A cold front will move across Monday
night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less
humid conditions with a shower or two are in the forecast for the
middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pesky CI/CS across the region continues to slide southward and
dissipate as more prominent mid and upper level ridge builds into
the region today. This should result in a good deal of June
sunshine as we approach the longest day of the year with respect
to sunshine minutes as highs should top out near 90F for valley
locations with mainly 80s elsewhere. Some clouds may move across
later this afternoon along with diurnal terrain based cumulus
which may limit highs to near 80F across the higher terrain.
The aforementioned ridge axis is expected to slip southward
tonight as low and mid level synoptic flow becomes increasingly
from the southwest. Overnight lows will generally fall into the
middle 50s to lower 60s as surface dewpoints begin their slow
climb.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer solstice arrives Monday June 20th at 634 PM EDT as warm
and muggy conditions will precede a cold front Monday into Monday
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...we continue the trend with an increasing southwesterly
flow regime which will assist with additional moisture transport.
With this added moisture, so are the diurnal cumulus clouds.
Temperatures should be close to slightly below to Sunday`s values
but with higher dewpoints will make the heat index (apparent
temperature) around 90F for valley locations. This all ahead of a
cold front that will be marching across the western and central
Great Lakes through the day.
Latest NCEP model suite along with the ECMWF differ a bit with
respect to timing of frontal passage Monday night with the NAM the
slowest of the guidance. Regardless, the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms are Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has placed the slight risk across western New York with
marginal risk across the remainder of our region. As this frontal
passage will be occurring during the nocturnal time frame, little
to no surface based instability is seen in the latest guidance
with most the instability aloft. Showalters remain below 0C along
with decent wind shear magnitudes of 30-40kts. So with a good
focus for convergence along with these parameters aloft, we will
continue with the likely pops across portions of the Dacks where
the front will be the closest to what is left of the surface based
instability then transition to chance-scattered pops for the
remainder of the overnight. Lows will range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s.
In the wake of the frontal passage by early Tuesday morning, a
period of subsidence and anti-cyclonic surface ridge should
result in a dry and more comfortable day. While cyclonic flow
remains in place aloft, mid level moisture remains quite dry so a
partly-mostly sunny day is expected for first full day of Summer
2016. Dewpoints fall back through the 50s as afternoon high
temperatures will average 75-85F for valley locations to low-mid
70s for the higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With a cold front now well to the east and an upper level trough
moving over the Northeast, cooler and less humid air will continue
to filter into the region from the northwest for Tuesday night. Much
of Tuesday night should be dry across the region, with temperatures
falling into the 50s in most areas. There still may be some passing
clouds thanks to the approaching upper level trough.
During the day on Wednesday, some showers may develop, esp for
northern and high terrain areas, thanks to the cooler temps aloft
from the upper level trough overhead. Will go with a slight chc for
most areas, with chc pops across the far northwestern Adirondacks.
Temps will be below normal for late June with highs only in the 70s
across much of the region. Dewpoints will be comfortable in the
40s. Dry weather should continue right into Wed night with lows in
the 50s and a partly to mostly clear sky.
The next feature to watch will be an area of sfc low pressure moving
from the Midwest/Ohio Valley towards the mid-Atlantic states on
Thursday into Friday. The models and ensembles are still unclear on
the exact track of this system, but some members do show it tracking
far enough to the north to bring some showers into the southern half
of the region. Will go with slight to low chc pops, mainly for
southern areas, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temps will
continue to be the cooler side for the late week period with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The exact temps will ultimately
depend on the track of the sfc low pressure area.
The surface wave will depart off the coast and the upper level
trough will finally start to move away for the weekend, allowing for
heights to build. This should allow temps to return to near normal
or perhaps even above normal depending on how quickly warmer air
returns to the region. Will go with a mainly dry forecast for the
weekend due to nearby sfc high pressure and upper level ridging with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum relative humidity values fall to between 30 and 40
percent this afternoon...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night with
another chance for scattered showers on Wednesday. Otherwise,
dry conditions should prevail through the mid-week period.
Minimum relative humidity values will fall back to between 30 and
40 percent today, recover to between 75 and 95 percent tonight,
then remain generally between 40 and 50 percent Monday afternoon.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 mph through Monday with
a direction mainly southerly.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the upcoming week.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome and have minimal
impact to rivers and streams.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
www.weather.gov/albany
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region today...with high
pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Some early morning mid-deck associated with a shortwave rounding
the ne edge of ridging. Otherwise...subsidence and westerly flow
aloft will allow for sunny and dry conditions today outside of
some thin cirrus.
With developing s/se gradient flow between offshore high and
thermal trough in the lee of the Appalachians...a well developed
seabreeze is expected to work well inland today. Developing
onshore flow should max out temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s for
south coastal areas...with mid to upper 80s most
elsewhere...before seabreeze works inland. Areas a bit west of the
Hudson could hit the lower 90s...with seabreeze likely not making
it there until late today if at all.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today due to the combination
of 2-3 ft 9 sec period swells with s/se winds increasing to 10 to
15 kt this afternoon. Higher confidence of moderate threat is for
Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon with wind and swells
expected to be on higher end of range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Upper ridging gradually breaks down over the region as a northern
stream longwave trough...centered around a Hudson`s Bay upper low...
begins to dig through the Great lakes. Meanwhile...a cutoff upper
low off the southeast coast today will drift northward. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions continue to keep associated surface
low well south and east of the region on Monday.
Radiational cooling conds once again for far outlying
areas...with lows in the 50s. Patchy fog development possible in
these areas late tonight with radiational cooling and increased
moisture levels from onshore flow.
Surface high pressure will continue to reside se of the region
tonight and then gradually get squeezed east on Monday. Dry
conditions will continue with not much more than some cirrus. Warm
advection continues ahead of an approaching cold from with some
increase in humidity levels as well. Once again a sse gradient
and seabreezes working well inland should cap temps in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees for south coastal areas...mid to upper
80s working inland...and around 90 degrees working well west of
the Hudson.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large northern stream trough continues to press east towards
the Northeast US Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly
southward. Timing of associated frontal system continues to be
faster...tied to lead shortwave energy pivoting through Se Canada
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front/pre-frontal trough
approach looks to be Monday night with passage Tue morning,
bringing associated potential for an sct-bkn line of showers and
tstms. With marginal to moderate instability (mainly
elevated)...and gradually increasing shear...cant rule out a
strong thunderstorm or two. Limiting factor for severe will be
weak surface instability and activity outpacing better forcing
well to the NW of the area.
Surface troughing lingers through Tuesday as upper troughing
builds in...but theta-e axis slides east with pre-frontal
trough...limiting any additional shower/tstm activity to isolated.
Offshore flow...lagging caa...and afternoon sunshine should allow
for a very warm day with highs likely well into the 80s areawide.
Mean troughing continues to build into the NE U.S. Tue night into
Wed, however, with dry low levels and mid level capping not
expecting much if any diurnal shower activity.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds just offshore.
A light and variable flow inland early this morning, and light
southerly at the coastal terminals. Generally light WSW to SE
flow around 5 kt after sunrise becomes SE with sea breeze
enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon, strongest at city terminals and KISP. Winds at
KLGA should become NE around 5 kt after 14z before sea breeze
passage around 17z.
SE winds become light overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. MVFR fog possible at KGON, KSWF, and
KHPN late.
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt
at south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at
night outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will keep
winds to 15 kt or less Monday night-Thursday. Persistent s/se winds
ahead of the approaching cold front and southerly swells could
bring seas to near 5 ft late Mon Night into Tue over the coastal
ocean waters...which could linger into midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. At this time expect generally less
than 1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
possible. No hydrologic impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Maloit/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
349 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure shifts farther east over the Gulf of Maine,
resulting in a southeast to south flow. Decent mixing should also
mean gust winds up to 20 mph at times, particularly toward the
coasts. Abundant sunshine and south winds will mean above normal
temperatures, especially away from the immediate south coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...Quiet weather continues. Increasing dew points from
persistent south winds, especially late tonight, could lead to
patchy fog. Low temperatures will remain seasonable.
Monday...Expecting a coastal low pressure to stay far enough
offshore to not be a major player in our weather. Dry weather
should prevail. High temperatures similar to today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Broad synoptic ridge-trof pattern defines most of the long term
period. High pres and ridging holding fast across the S and SW
CONUS while downstream across the northeast trof resides blocked
further downstream by blocking ridge south of Greenland. This trof
will relieve the region of the heat-humid connection early in the
week and allow for a tendency back toward seasonal normal
temperatures and dwpts toward the latter half of the week. The
largest discrepancies begin late in the week with the development
of yet another offshore low pres along a stalled frontal boundary
to the S. Deterministic guidance continues to be on the northern
side of the envelope with more of a potential for impact on Srn
New England. However, ensembles are quite spread and if anything,
actually tend toward the south in the face of high pres building
across Nrn New England. Will begin using a blend of the available
deterministic guidance, bet then taper toward a blend of
ECENS/GEFS ensemble means later in the week.
Details...
Mon night into Tue night...
Cold front approaches and crosses the region as previously
advertised connected to low pres moving through QC. At odds is the
timing, while previous runs were much slower, allowing for full
destabilization to occur, latest runs are faster, pushing the
front through during the AM hours. This limits potential
destabilization and even ensemble probabilities are lower now for
+1000j/kg of CAPE. Will maintain some mention of TS as afternoon
SLIs and Showalters remain below 0 through the afternoon as the
front slows offshore and the upper trof lags. However, the earlier
passage will limit the risk for strong-severe storms. Something to
continue to watch as we approach as shear values remain elevated.
Otherwise, humid as dwpts increase to the mid 60s. With enough
sun, temps should still make a run into the low-mid 80s.
Wed through Thu...
Trof settles across the region with cyclonic flow and cooling H5
temps to near or below -15C. This should be enough for diurnally
driven clouds each day, along with a risk for shra or even an
isolated TS, however far from a washout as moisture will be
limited with stacked NW flow. Temps back down to seasonal normals,
mainly mid-upper 70s thanks to H85 temps dropping back closer to
+8C.
Fri and Fri night...
Stalled frontal boundary remains to the S and will allow for
enhanced cyclogenesis. The resultant low pres will pass somewhere
S of New England, but how close is the question. Should it pass
near or even just S of the 40/70 benchmark it could lead to a
period of wet wx as it carries with it a subtropical moisture
source. However, ensembles are well spread and even tend S, so at
this time, will lean closer on this solution until there is better
agreement. The initiating shortwave is currently locked within the
vortex across the PACNW.
Next weekend...
Dependent on the speed with which the offshore low pres passes,
but high pres looks to regain control as the base of the longwave
trof begins a shift to the E.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds become S/SE today. Breezy at times during the
day, with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR patchy fog late
tonight. Scattered mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Mon night into Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE today, with
the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get a bit
choppy with waves up to near 5 feet over portions of the
northeastern outer Massachusetts coastal waters. Not enough
confidence to issue a small craft advisory, at this time.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday night into Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to
6 feet on the outer waters.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
258 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure shifts farther east over the Gulf of Maine,
resulting in a southeast to south flow. Decent mixing should also
mean gust winds up to 20 mph at times, particularly toward the
coasts. Abundant sunshine and south winds will mean above normal
temperatures, especially away from the immediate south coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...Quiet weather continues. Increasing dew points from
persistent south winds, especially late tonight, could lead to
patchy fog. Low temperatures will remain seasonable.
Monday...Expecting a coastal low pressure to stay far enough
offshore to not be a major player in our weather. Dry weather
should prevail. High temperatures similar to today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Two main concerns during this long
term period: showers and thunderstorms with a cold front Tuesday,
and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold
front through southern New England. There are still some
uncertainties regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF
quickest and the GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the
front regardless of the timing, if the front comes through during
the peak heating hours of the afternoon we could see some
thunderstorms. At this point, the 12Z models are not indicating
much, if any, instability, so will not have any mention of thunder
in the forecast at this time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have
a low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and
passing over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday.
The EPS ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure
over the northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a
bit more of an indication that there`s some support for the
operational model. All that to say, confidence is low for this
period of the forecast. Should the operational models verify,
we`re looking at a cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far
from certain. Just something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds become S/SE today. Breezy at times during the
day, with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR patchy fog late
tonight. Scattered mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE today, with
the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get a bit
choppy with waves up to 5 feet over portions of the northeastern
outer Massachusetts coastal waters. Still thinking about the need
for a small craft advisory later tonight into Monday.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RLG
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Belk/RLG
MARINE...Belk/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds just offshore.
A light and variable flow inland early this morning, and light
southerly at the coastal terminals. Generally light WSW to SE
flow around 5 kt after sunrise becomes SE with sea breeze
enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon, strongest at city terminals and KISP. Winds at
KLGA should become NE around 5 kt after 14z before sea breeze
passage around 17z.
SE winds become light overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. MVFR fog possible at KGON, KSWF, and
KHPN late.
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt
at south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at
night outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds just offshore.
A light and variable flow inland early this morning, and light
southerly at the coastal terminals. Generally light WSW to SE
flow around 5 kt after sunrise becomes SE with sea breeze
enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon, strongest at city terminals and KISP. Winds at
KLGA should become NE around 5 kt after 14z before sea breeze
passage around 17z.
SE winds become light overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. MVFR fog possible at KGON, KSWF, and
KHPN late.
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt
at south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at
night outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and light southerly
at the coastal terminals. SE-S winds Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements. KLGA may for a time
Sunday morning be out of the NE with a wind off the East River.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and light southerly
at the coastal terminals. SE-S winds Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements. KLGA may for a time
Sunday morning be out of the NE with a wind off the East River.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1031 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast. Made minor updates to temperatures
and dewpoints for latest trends.
Previous discussion...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Cannot
rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/RLG/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1031 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast. Made minor updates to temperatures
and dewpoints for latest trends.
Previous discussion...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Cannot
rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/RLG/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck sliding across the region tonight. These
clouds will be south and east of the area by sunrise. Forecast
really only needs some minor changes to cloud and temperature
trends overnight...although min temps remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at all levels of that atmosphere will be in place
across the region through the forecast period.
Thus VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the
period.
There were some differences noted in MOS forecast guidance
between GFS and NAM at KPOU and KPSF tonight. GFS MOS argues for
MVFR conditions at KPOU and IFR at KPSF in BR. However, current
Temp/Dew Point spreads at all terminals 30-40F. With very dry
atmosphere in place, will side with drier NAM forecast thus
yielding the VFR forecast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and southerly at the
coastal terminals. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and southerly at the
coastal terminals. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
739 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main update this evening is to allow for a few more clouds,
albeit of the high variety. IR satellite showing a pretty good
swath of higher level clouds dropping south in northerly flow
aloft. Thus forecast adjusted for a period of partly cloudy skies
tonight. Minor updates to reflect current temp/dew point trends as
well.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at all levels of that atmosphere will be in place
across the region through the forecast period.
Thus VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the
period.
There were some differences noted in MOS forecast guidance
between GFS and NAM at KPOU and KPSF tonight. GFS MOS argues for
MVFR conditions at KPOU and IFR at KPSF in BR. However, current
Temp/Dew Point spreads at all terminals 30-40F. With very dry
atmosphere in place, will side with drier NAM forecast thus
yielding the VFR forecast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
739 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main update this evening is to allow for a few more clouds,
albeit of the high variety. IR satellite showing a pretty good
swath of higher level clouds dropping south in northerly flow
aloft. Thus forecast adjusted for a period of partly cloudy skies
tonight. Minor updates to reflect current temp/dew point trends as
well.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at all levels of that atmosphere will be in place
across the region through the forecast period.
Thus VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the
period.
There were some differences noted in MOS forecast guidance
between GFS and NAM at KPOU and KPSF tonight. GFS MOS argues for
MVFR conditions at KPOU and IFR at KPSF in BR. However, current
Temp/Dew Point spreads at all terminals 30-40F. With very dry
atmosphere in place, will side with drier NAM forecast thus
yielding the VFR forecast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
658 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...No major changes to the forecast. Made minor updates
to temperatures and dewpoints for latest trends.
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Cannot
rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...RLG/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains over the area.
With clear skies and light winds, conditions will be good for
radiational cooling. Across the far outlying areas...lows will fall
into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj metro...but
relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere.
There is a chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson River Valley,
however confidence is low at this time and will leave out of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s most
elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreeze can be expected once again
during the afternoon. Areas well N and W of the NYC metro could hit
lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected. A southerly wind of near 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight. JFK winds will
be closer to 15 kt this afternoon with a few occasional gusts up
to 20 kt. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few kts higher
than Saturday afternoon winds with some gusts up to near 20 kt
developing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals for afternoon both days.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 pm EDT...High pressure over NY and New England late
this afternoon and early this evening will move offshore tonight.
The diurnal cumulus over the mountains will quickly dissipate
early this evening. A few thin cirrus will be around. The winds
will be light to calm with near ideal radiational cooling.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s.Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Can
not rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s.Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Can
not rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 pm EDT...High pressure over NY and New England late
this afternoon and early this evening will move offshore tonight.
The diurnal cumulus over the mountains will quickly dissipate
early this evening. A few thin cirrus will be around. The winds
will be light to calm with near ideal radiational cooling.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 pm EDT...High pressure over NY and New England late
this afternoon and early this evening will move offshore tonight.
The diurnal cumulus over the mountains will quickly dissipate
early this evening. A few thin cirrus will be around. The winds
will be light to calm with near ideal radiational cooling.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
There is a low risk of rip currents this afternoon at the
Atlantic ocean beaches. As a southerly coastal jet develops late
this afternoon into evening, the rip current risk would
correspondingly increase to moderate for the NYC and Nassau County
ocean beaches. Confidence in wind speed getting that strong is not
high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected. A southerly wind of near 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight. JFK winds will
be closer to 15 kt this afternoon with a few occasional gusts up
to 20 kt. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few kts higher
than Saturday afternoon winds with some gusts up to near 20 kt
developing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals for afternoon both days.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
There is a low risk of rip currents this afternoon at the
Atlantic ocean beaches. As a southerly coastal jet develops late
this afternoon into evening, the rip current risk would
correspondingly increase to moderate for the NYC and Nassau County
ocean beaches. Confidence in wind speed getting that strong is not
high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected. A southerly wind of near 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight. JFK winds will
be closer to 15 kt this afternoon with a few occasional gusts up
to 20 kt. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few kts higher
than Saturday afternoon winds with some gusts up to near 20 kt
developing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals for afternoon both days.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1225 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in from
southeast Canada and northern New England with fair and dry
weather today. Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of
the last few days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding
has a low-level radiative inversion which continues to erode
quickly. Mixing to H750-800 should allow highs in the lower to
mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills
and mountains. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone should
yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions most of the day with a few-
sct cumulus over the mountains...and south of the Capital Region
as a few disturbance moves through this morning.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1225 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in from
southeast Canada and northern New England with fair and dry
weather today. Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of
the last few days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding
has a low-level radiative inversion which continues to erode
quickly. Mixing to H750-800 should allow highs in the lower to
mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills
and mountains. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone should
yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions most of the day with a few-
sct cumulus over the mountains...and south of the Capital Region
as a few disturbance moves through this morning.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a mostly sunny
day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above seasonable
levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper 70s/lower
80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds will give way to southerly sea breezes developing
into the early afternoon. However, BDR and JFK already have sea
breezes developing under 10 kt. Sea breeze timing could be an hour
off from forecast for the rest of the terminals. Winds may become
NE around 5 kt at LGA into early afternoon before sea breeze
passage. Wind speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or
less. JFK will be a few kts above the other terminals with
southerly winds near 12 kt mid to late this afternoon.
Winds become light and variable again tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a mostly sunny
day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above seasonable
levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper 70s/lower
80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds will give way to southerly sea breezes developing
into the early afternoon. However, BDR and JFK already have sea
breezes developing under 10 kt. Sea breeze timing could be an hour
off from forecast for the rest of the terminals. Winds may become
NE around 5 kt at LGA into early afternoon before sea breeze
passage. Wind speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or
less. JFK will be a few kts above the other terminals with
southerly winds near 12 kt mid to late this afternoon.
Winds become light and variable again tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in from
southeast Canada and northern New England with fair and dry
weather today. Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of
the last few days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding
has a low-level radiative inversion which continues to erode
quickly. Mixing to H750-800 should allow highs in the lower to
mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills
and mountains. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone should
yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions most of the day with a few-
sct cumulus over the mountains...and south of the Capital Region
as a few disturbance moves through this morning.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1002 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Trough and attendant vortmax energy discerned from latest water
vapor satellite that brought us the bout of wet weather overnight
slipping east out to sea behind which heights are rising with the
influx of warmer air immediately aloft brought on by an increasing
westerly component of wind.
High pressure dominates allowing for clear conditions along with
light winds. Already seeing sea-breezes along the coastlines,
quite brisk in spots with 10 to 15 mph winds. Trends prevailing,
will see highs into the upper-80s across the interior, namely the
low-lying areas of the CT and Merrimack River Valleys, while
cooler along the shores with onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry conditions.
Light winds will mean good radiational cooling tonight, so favored
to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2 meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short-Term /Through Sunday/...High confidence.
14z update...no major changes to the forecast.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today along the coasts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
10 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1002 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Trough and attendant vortmax energy discerned from latest water
vapor satellite that brought us the bout of wet weather overnight
slipping east out to sea behind which heights are rising with the
influx of warmer air immediately aloft brought on by an increasing
westerly component of wind.
High pressure dominates allowing for clear conditions along with
light winds. Already seeing sea-breezes along the coastlines,
quite brisk in spots with 10 to 15 mph winds. Trends prevailing,
will see highs into the upper-80s across the interior, namely the
low-lying areas of the CT and Merrimack River Valleys, while
cooler along the shores with onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry conditions.
Light winds will mean good radiational cooling tonight, so favored
to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2 meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short-Term /Through Sunday/...High confidence.
14z update...no major changes to the forecast.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today along the coasts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
10 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds this morning with southerly sea breezes developing
late morning into the early afternoon. Sea breeze timing could be
an hour off from forecast. Winds may become NE around 5 kt at LGA
this morning/early afternoon before sea breeze passage. Wind
speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds this morning with southerly sea breezes developing
late morning into the early afternoon. Sea breeze timing could be
an hour off from forecast. Winds may become NE around 5 kt at LGA
this morning/early afternoon before sea breeze passage. Wind
speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
722 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM Update...
Since clearing behind the brief convective activity last night,
temps have actually dropped into the low 50s in many places
outside of the heat-islands. However, SKC conditions should allow
temps to rebound quite nicely. Raised inland temps a bit as this
is likely a scenario where we over-achieve a bit. Near shore
locations start warming, but then become restricted by sea breezes
mid day.
Previous discussion...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
722 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM Update...
Since clearing behind the brief convective activity last night,
temps have actually dropped into the low 50s in many places
outside of the heat-islands. However, SKC conditions should allow
temps to rebound quite nicely. Raised inland temps a bit as this
is likely a scenario where we over-achieve a bit. Near shore
locations start warming, but then become restricted by sea breezes
mid day.
Previous discussion...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Mainly virga this morning with residual
showers across our western New England counties into the Taconics.
H2O vapor loop reveals a due northerly flow across New England
with a weak/subtle wave passing across the region at the time of
this writing. In its wake should be increasing subsidence and
rising heights as surface and upper level ridges build and move
across the CWFA today into the evening hours. Later tonight, NCEP
model suite and international guidance suggest a piece of the
stretched out vorticity extending from James/Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes approaches overnight. Like the case from
this morning, there could be a shower but unlike this morning, the
heights aloft are forecast to be higher. So for now, we will keep
the forecast dry under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
Under plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should easily climb
into the 80s for majority of the region as H850 temperatures are
in the middle teens with dewpoints at or below 50F which should
result in relative comfortable June conditions. Tonight, lows
mainly into the 50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of
the year are generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight
lows mainly into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Mainly virga this morning with residual
showers across our western New England counties into the Taconics.
H2O vapor loop reveals a due northerly flow across New England
with a weak/subtle wave passing across the region at the time of
this writing. In its wake should be increasing subsidence and
rising heights as surface and upper level ridges build and move
across the CWFA today into the evening hours. Later tonight, NCEP
model suite and international guidance suggest a piece of the
stretched out vorticity extending from James/Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes approaches overnight. Like the case from
this morning, there could be a shower but unlike this morning, the
heights aloft are forecast to be higher. So for now, we will keep
the forecast dry under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
Under plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should easily climb
into the 80s for majority of the region as H850 temperatures are
in the middle teens with dewpoints at or below 50F which should
result in relative comfortable June conditions. Tonight, lows
mainly into the 50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of
the year are generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight
lows mainly into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light SW-W winds early this morning at city terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Southerly sea breezes will develop late
morning into the early afternoon. Observed timing could be off by
an hour compared to forecast. Speeds generally around 10 kt or
less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light SW-W winds early this morning at city terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Southerly sea breezes will develop late
morning into the early afternoon. Observed timing could be off by
an hour compared to forecast. Speeds generally around 10 kt or
less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
351 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR this period along with dry weather. Low risk of brief MVFR in
patchy late night/early morning fog. Light winds with afternoon
seabreezes for coastal terminals. Winds become light southerly on
Sunday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook...Sun night through Wednesday...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
333 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT...Recent radar scans reveal a diminishing trend
from the convection earlier this morning with residual showers
across our western New England counties. H2O vapor loop reveals a
due northerly flow across New England with a weak/subtle wave
passing across the region at the time of this writing. In its wake
should be increasing subsidence and rising heights as surface and
upper level ridges build and move across the CWFA today into the
evening hours. Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international
guidance suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending
from James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
Under plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should easily climb
into the 80s for majority of the region as H850 temperatures are
in the middle teens with dewpoints at or below 50F which should
result in relative comfortable June conditions. Tonight, lows
mainly into the 50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of
the year are generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight
lows mainly into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave rotating through the northern flow around an upper
level trough near Nova Scotia has allowed for some showers over
the North Country this evening. Although these showers are
weakening, the leftover clouds will pass over our area through the
remainder of the overnight hours from north to south. A few hour
period of sct- bkn cigs around 9-12 kft will occur early this
morning, but flying conditions will remain vfr with mainly light
or calm winds. Cannot totally rule out a brief showers/sprinkle
near KGFL over the next hour or two, but it should stay dry
everywhere else. Even if a shower does occur, flying conditions
should generally remain vfr.
During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, flying
conditions will remain vfr with mainly clear skies. There could
be few-sct diurnal cu over the high terrain during the day on
Saturday and some passing cirrus by evening, otherwise flying
conditions will remain vfr. Winds will should be light, generally
5 kts or less, and most sites look to have completely calm winds
for Sat night. The short night and relatively low dewpoints should
help prevent any radiational fog from forming on Sat night.
Outlook...
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light SW-W winds early this morning at city terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Southerly sea breezes will develop late
morning into the early afternoon. Observed timing could be off by
an hour compared to forecast. Speeds generally around 10 kt or
less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
306 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Mild to warm days & cool nights through Monday
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Quite the quiet weather period for southern New England
into next week. While there remains some uncertainty in the models
with regards to the low pressure system developing south of the area
over the ocean, the models are more consistent in keeping this
system weaker and farther south of New England. The ECMWF and it`s
ensemble mean are the strongest/farthest to the north, while the GFS
and it`s ensemble mean are the weakest/farthest to the south so
aiming for a blend of solutions that will keep it far enough south
of New England to limit any impact on our weather, at least over
land. High pressure dominates our forecast Monday. The one weather-
maker for us will be a frontal system that moves through late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely produce at least some
light precip, and depending on the timing of the front with peak
heating, etc could result in showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures...High confidence.
Mild to even hot temperatures continue Monday, with the first day
of summer the warmest day of the forecast with highs in the mid
80s to even 90 possible. Tuesday will be a tad cooler but with
higher humidity, then more seasonable weather returns mid-week
onwards.
Precipitation...High confidence, except Tuesday-Wednesday. Moderate
confidence for that period.
Expect a fairly dry forecast for much of the period. Only real
chance for any precipitation is with the cold frontal passage on
Tuesday. There`s some indication in the ECMWF that a secondary front
will bring a few more showers on Wednesday, but confidence is not
high.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR this period along with dry weather. Low risk of brief MVFR in
patchy late night/early morning fog. Light winds with afternoon
seabreezes for coastal terminals. Winds become light southerly on
Sunday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Monday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and variable
winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions and dry
weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
night may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...High Confidence.
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence. Mainly quiet boating
weather is expected. Winds and seas gradually increase Monday but
should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RLG
NEAR TERM...Belk/RLG
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Belk/RLG
MARINE...Belk/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will be fair through the weekend with temperatures
gradually warming to above normal as high pressure dominates.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...Radar trends continue to increase in coverage
across portions of the Dacks into the Lake George Saratoga Region
and southern VT. This was along and ahead of a weak surface trough
and upper wave seen in the H2O vapor imagery cross the St
Lawrence Valley. HRRR wants to expand these showers into the
Capital Region overnight but may mainly be a terrain based
showers. For now, we will expand the PoPs a bit westward and
southward and continue to watch trends as these showers should
dissipate over the next few hours.
Ridging should finally build in at the surface and aloft towards
morning and will aid in subsidence late tonight...along with light
to calm winds. May see some patchy fog where rain falls overnight. Lows
will range from the mid to upper 40s in the higher terrain with
lower to mid 50s in the valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging builds into the region from the west while an upper
low spins around off the Carolinas. As the low level ridging
slowly settles south and east of our region by later Sunday and
Monday...temperatures will warm each day through Monday and many
areas should get around 90 by Monday. There may be some onshore
low level flow in southern areas...with some weak influence from
the far northern periphery of the flow around the upper low off
the Carolinas but still warming each day in southern areas.
Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s...near 80 northern areas.
Highs Sunday in the 80s to near 90...and around 90 to lower 90s
Monday...but mid 80s in higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out Monday night with our region in a warm sector
ahead of a cold front positioned near the Great Lakes and St.
Lawrence Valley, so it will be a mild and somewhat muggy night.
Models trending slightly faster with timing of the cold front, so
will mention chance pops for some showers and thunderstorms for
areas north and west of the Capital District late Monday night as
the front approaches.
Otherwise, the cold front should push southeastward through the
region on Tuesday, bringing the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms. There appears to be a conditional threat for some
severe storms on Tuesday. Deep layer shear forecast to be rather
impressive at 40-50 kt, but the magnitude of instability is in
question at this time and will be highly dependent on timing of the
front and degree of cloud cover. Should sufficient instability
develop, strong to severe storms will be possible with the potential
for gusty winds.
Lingering chances for some showers and storms Tuesday evening,
mainly for areas south and east of Albany as the cold front
continues to move through. Otherwise mainly dry conditions are
expected overnight. There will be a noticeable drop in humidity
levels by Wednesday in wake of the cold front, with cooler
temperatures as well. A few showers cannot be ruled out due to a
cyclonic flow in place within a broad upper level trough over the
region. This trough should exit into far northern New England and
the Canadian maritimes by Thursday, as surface high pressure builds
in to our area from the west.
High pressure then looks to build eastward and take residence across
the northeast U.S. into Friday with slightly below normal
temperatures and comfortably low humidity levels.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave rotating through the northern flow around an upper
level trough near Nova Scotia has allowed for some showers over
the North Country this evening. Although these showers are
weakening, the leftover clouds will pass over our area through the
remainder of the overnight hours from north to south. A few hour
period of sct-bkn cigs around 9-12 kft will occur early this
morning, but flying conditions will remain vfr with mainly light
or calm winds. Cannot totally rule out a brief showers/sprinkle
near KGFL over the next hour or two, but it should stay dry
everywhere else. Even if a shower does occur, flying conditions
should generally remain vfr.
During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, flying
conditions will remain vfr with mainly clear skies. There could
be few-sct diurnal cu over the high terrain during the day on
Saturday and some passing cirrus by evening, otherwise flying
conditions will remain vfr. Winds will should be light, generally
5 kts or less, and most sites look to have completely calm winds
for Sat night. The short night and relatively low dewpoints should
help prevent any radiational fog from forming on Sat night.
Outlook...
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather will be fair through the weekend with temperatures
gradually warming to above normal as high pressure dominates.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent tonight.
Winds through the period will be north to northeast at 15 mph or
less through Saturday night...then trending to southwest at 15 mph
or less Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend with fair
weather as high pressure dominates.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
High pressure from the Ohio Valley west into eastern Kansas will
gradually move off to the east today. A shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and northern Plains will push a frontal
boundary southeast across the Dakotas and into northwest Nebraska by
00Z Monday. The above mentioned shortwave will flatten the ridge as
it moves eastward. This will send the cold front further south
tonight slowly into southern Nebraska late tonight. Convection is
expected to remain north of the Kansas border overnight, so will
continue with a dry forecast. Forecast soundings show mixing from
around 800mb in north central Kansas to around 850mb across
northeast and east central Kansas. This will yield highs in the
lower to middle 90s. Dew points in the mid 60s are expected in the
afternoon hours and will combine with the temps in the 90s to
produce heat indices in the 95 to 102 degree range this afternoon.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
Rather fast upper flow over the northern states and upper high over
the south remains to dominate the these periods. This will keep
above normal temps as the rule with some potential for heat
headlines for multiple, though perhaps not consecutive, periods.
Weak, modified fronts looks to impact the area on at least two
occasions, but precipitation chances remain uncertain.
Initial front and perhaps convective outflow looks to sink into
northern areas Monday afternoon. Even with potential downdraft help,
convergence along the boundary looks weak with general subsidence
over the area. Will keep small chances going, with perhaps an
uptick in coverage in the evening and overnight as a modest low
level jet develops. Elevated lapse rates aren`t very impressive
but CAPE over 1000 J/kg and modest shear could present a minor
severe hail and wind risk. Slight warming ahead of the front
Monday should bring a warmer day, with heat index values likely
breaching 100. Am not confident enough in where outflow could be
and dewpoint specifics for an Advisory yet. Front/outflow should
mix back northeast Tuesday with mid level temps rising into
Wednesday as the weak upper low cutting off near the Pacific
Northwest comes east. Southwest winds increasing ahead of it will
likely make Wednesday the hottest temp day for many areas. Low
level moisture quality questions remain, but Advisory apparent
temp values look possible. Associated Pacific cold front passes
Wednesday night, but the warm temps aloft may keep convection in
check. Better chances look to be in subsequent periods along and
behind the front as it stalls not far south, not too dissimilar
from Monday into Tuesday periods though farther southwest. Models
differ with strength of post-frontal high over the Northern
Plains, but any slight cooling Thursday may not last long.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the 06Z TAF period. Winds will
gradually veer to the south by mid morning and increase to just
above 10kts through mid morning into the afternoon. Chances for
airmass thunderstorms remains too low to mention.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
.Today...
Watching low clouds persist east of turnpike, and suspect that
clouds will continue to increase through daybreak. Some fog
possible west of turnpike due to combo of moist ground and
radiational cooling. Anticipating fair amount of cumulus today
given residual low level moisture, but with lack of forcing and no
MCV or outflow boundaries in the area, chances for storms seems
slim. Temperatures should recover a bit today given less
precipitation, but majority of guidance was not that far from
yesterday maxes.
Tonight-Tuesday:
Little change this period other than temperatures edging up a
couple degrees. Precipitation chances look slim given building
upper ridge and cap. -howerton
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Only minor tweaks to initialization grids. Same basic scenerio is
still expected with upper ridge hanging tough across the southern
half of the conus. GFS is a bit more agressive with shortwave
moving across the northern plains on Thursday and this pushes
surface front considerably further south than the ECMWF. Proximity
of front will and model QPF bias will result in small pops
littered throughout much of the period, but suspect only real
chances will be late Wednesday night through late Thursday night
in Central KS where surface boundary/outflow may get close enough
for storms. Precipitation chances over the southern half looks
slim. Maxes appear to be running cool as well. Nudged maxes up a
degree most days, but would not be surprised if maxes are several
degree warmer than currently forecast based on ECMWF 1000-850
millibar thicknesses. -howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Aviation concern will be some light fog west of I-135 early Sun
morning.
Diurnal storms associated with the MCV died off a couple hours
ago. Some light fog will be possible after 09z west of I-135 due
to light upslope flow and rich moisture remaining in place. For
now just ran with a tempo at KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. At this point am
fairly confident we are not looking at widespread dense fog.
Outside of some early morning fog, confidence is high that VFR
conditions will be in place the remainder of Sun.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 92 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 92 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 92 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
ElDorado 91 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 10
Winfield-KWLD 92 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 95 73 97 72 / 0 0 10 10
Great Bend 94 73 96 72 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 95 73 97 72 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 92 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 90 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 10
Chanute 91 70 95 72 / 10 10 0 10
Iola 91 70 95 72 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 90 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
...Updated short term and long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Today a surface cold front will drop south into Nebraska as an
upper level trough quickly moves east across the northern Plains.
Over the Western High Plains a surface trough of low pressure will
remain nearly stationary over eastern Colorado as the center of an
upper high builds into the Central Rockies. By 00z Monday this
upper high will extend from the Four Corners Region to the Central
Plains. Warm mid level temperatures combined with a slow storm
motion late today suggests that any convection that may develop
along either the surface trough in Colorado or the cold front in
southern Nebraska will stay west and north of southwest Kansas.
As for temperatures today...the net 24 hour 850mb temperature
change from 00z Sunday to 00 Monday indicated a +1 to near +3 warm
up. Based on this along with an southeasterly flow in the 0-1km
level and the highs yesterday will favor the cooler guidance for
highs today. These temperatures were also close to what the 775mb
mix down temperatures suggested from the NAM and GFS. Lows around
70 tonight still looks on track.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
On Monday this surface boundary will drop south into northern
Kansas and is forecast to be near or just north of the I 70
corridor by late day. South of this surface boundary it will be
another warm day with highs climbing back into the mid to upper
90s for all of western and south central Kansas.
Late day convection along and north of this surface boundary will
once again be possible late Monday but at this time the main
question is exactly where this boundary will be at 00z Tuesday.
Models differing some on the location but they all seem to agree
in keeping this boundary north of the i-70 corridor so will
continue to favor a dry forecast late Monday and Monday night.
This surface boundary will then lift north as a warm front and
based on the 850mb and 700mb temperature trends Tuesday and
Wednesday it appears that temperatures climbing back to around 100
degrees will be returning. Heat index readings of 100 to 103 also
are beginning to look more and more likely mid week.
From late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday both the GFS and
ECMWF still tries to bring a cold front into portions of western
Kansas. Models however differ on timing and location. South of
this front the summer heat will continue while along and north of
this front there will be more seasonal temperatures along with a
chance for thunderstorms, The general trend late week of improving
chances for convection long with temperatures falling back into
the 90s still appears reasonable so will not deviate too far from
the previous forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Clear skies and a light east to southeast wind will produce a
favorable environment for areas of fog early this morning. Based
on the NAM, NMM, ARW, and HRRR the area favorable for this fog
will be around the DDC and GCK between 09z and 15z Sunday.
Visibilities as low as 1 to 3 miles will be possible. Some IFR
stratus will also be possible at times towards daybreak but
confidence on this is not as high. Once the fog and stratus erodes
the skies will be clear and the southerly winds are expected to
increase to around 15 knots after 18z Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 95 69 96 68 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 94 68 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 95 69 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 94 70 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
P28 94 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1136 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Visible satellite shows an MCV from overnight convection over the
area as it drifts eastward. It is weakening therefore do not think
there will be enough lift for any storm development in eastern KS.
Also, the latest guidance suggests that the mlcin is strong over
northeast KS, and should remain that way through the rest of the
afternoon. In central KS the mlcin is eroding where the cape is
around 1000 j/kg. Radar shows convection building in that area,
which is supported by the high res models. Although the focus for
forcing in that area is limited. These showers and storms could move
into north central KS this afternoon and evening. As of now it does
not appear that the coverage will support a strong cold pool that
would last long and progress far. Most of this activity should
reside more in central KS and decrease in the evening. Not much
change in the overall pattern through tomorrow. The forecast area
continues to stay on the western periphery of the surface high
pressure, with the upper ridge centered over the Rockies. Overnight
lows will dip into the upper 60s. Tomorrow the temperatures will
rise as the surface high pressure gradually progresses eastward.
Highs will manage the lower to mid 90s with dew points in the upper
60s. This will produce heat indices in the upper 90s to lower
100s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
The upper flow pattern will remain active over the far northern
CONUS through the long term while much of the region from KS on
south will continue to be dominated by upper high pressure. Sunday
night into Tuesday will feature a couple of those northern CONUS
waves which will push a combination of cold front and convectively-
driven outflow boundaries south. Any such boundary is likely to hang
near or just north of the area by Monday morning and possibly drift
into northern KS during the day. Low level convergence will be weak
but persistent through the day and into the evening...and will
probably be sufficient to initiate thunderstorms just north of the
boundary. The bulk of this activity late Monday would likely focus
just north of the area although there is some potential for it to
extend south with time especially as it would send out additional
outflow. A similar scenario would continue through the overnight
hours and possibly again on Tuesday/Tuesday night. It appears more
likely that the boundary would be farther north and a bit farther
away from northeast KS late Tuesday...and thus storm chances are
better farther to the northeast.
It seems that the upper flow will become slightly more meridional by
late in the week with the upper high centered just to our west.
Temperatures are likely to become quite hot again for the second
half of the week as 850 hPa temps climb back into the middle to
upper 20s. Dewpoints are also likely to increase toward the low 70s
once again so heat indices will be on the increase as well. However,
expect a pretty good gradient from SW to NE across the region and
two of the main uncertainties lie in how far east the upper ridge
will set up (farther east will result in hotter and drier
conditions), and also any convection and outflow impacting the area
during this time as there are weak waves moving through the flow on
a frequent basis. For now, continue with periods of PoPs during the
periods when the more active flow seems to be close to the local
area. Have also continued the trend of warmer temperatures with
several days of heat indices in the 100+ range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the 06Z TAF period. Winds will
gradually veer to the south by mid morning and increase to just
above 10kts through mid morning into the afternoon. Chances for
airmass thunderstorms remains too low to mention.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Convective trends this evening, then return of near triple digit
heat for Monday and Tuesday are the main concerns. Diurnal heating
in the wake of the early morning MCS debris has resulted in MLCAPE
values around 2500 j/kg along and just east of the low level
convergent boundary across south central Kansas. Recent convective
development has occurred along the I-135 corridor and will hold
on to some chance for convection through early this evening.
Otherwise, the elongated upper ridge axis will reorient itself a
bit across the central CONUS during Sunday an upper trof a top the
ridge moves along the Canadian border. This will eventually lead
to a more pronounced longwave upper trof across eastern Canada and
the northeast CONUS by later Monday into Tuesday. This will result
in more of a weak northwest flow regime aloft across eastern
Kansas by Tuesday as the upper ridge axis shifts into the southern
Plains. The overall theme for the forecast area will be for near
triple digit heat to return with low level thickness values
supporting maximum temperatures a bit higher than MOS guidance the
next few days. The main challenge comes late Monday night and
Tuesday in how far south the back door cold front settles south
across eastern Kansas. In the absence of a significant convective
complex it is doubtful this front will make it into the Wichita
forecast area. So with this caveat in mind, will keep the area on
the warm side of the front for now with temperatures well into the
90s. Current expectations on afternoon temperatures and dew point
values would keep the area just shy of heat advisory criteria.
However it will not take much to get us there and this will have
to be monitored.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Hot and dry through mid-week with another attempt at a cold front
and perhaps better chance for that boundary to make it south
across the area by Thursday night and Friday. So will keep slight
to modest POPs in the forecast with only a subtle tweak down on
the thermometer for now.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Aviation concern will be some light fog west of I-135 early Sun
morning.
Diurnal storms associated with the MCV died off a couple hours
ago. Some light fog will be possible after 09z west of I-135 due
to light upslope flow and rich moisture remaining in place. For
now just ran with a tempo at KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. At this point am
fairly confident we are not looking at widespread dense fog.
Outside of some early morning fog, confidence is high that VFR
conditions will be in place the remainder of Sun.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 71 94 71 97 / 30 0 0 0
Hutchinson 70 95 71 98 / 20 0 0 0
Newton 69 94 71 97 / 20 0 0 0
ElDorado 69 93 70 96 / 20 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 71 93 71 96 / 30 0 0 0
Russell 70 96 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 69 96 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
Salina 71 97 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 70 96 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 69 92 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 68 91 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Convective trends this evening, then return of near triple digit
heat for Monday and Tuesday are the main concerns. Diurnal heating
in the wake of the early morning MCS debris has resulted in MLCAPE
values around 2500 j/kg along and just east of the low level
convergent boundary across south central Kansas. Recent convective
development has occurred along the I-135 corridor and will hold
on to some chance for convection through early this evening.
Otherwise, the elongated upper ridge axis will reorient itself a
bit across the central CONUS during Sunday an upper trof a top the
ridge moves along the Canadian border. This will eventually lead
to a more pronounced longwave upper trof across eastern Canada and
the northeast CONUS by later Monday into Tuesday. This will result
in more of a weak northwest flow regime aloft across eastern
Kansas by Tuesday as the upper ridge axis shifts into the southern
Plains. The overall theme for the forecast area will be for near
triple digit heat to return with low level thickness values
supporting maximum temperatures a bit higher than MOS guidance the
next few days. The main challenge comes late Monday night and
Tuesday in how far south the back door cold front settles south
across eastern Kansas. In the absence of a significant convective
complex it is doubtful this front will make it into the Wichita
forecast area. So with this caveat in mind, will keep the area on
the warm side of the front for now with temperatures well into the
90s. Current expectations on afternoon temperatures and dew point
values would keep the area just shy of heat advisory criteria.
However it will not take much to get us there and this will have
to be monitored.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Hot and dry through mid-week with another attempt at a cold front
and perhaps better chance for that boundary to make it south
across the area by Thursday night and Friday. So will keep slight
to modest POPs in the forecast with only a subtle tweak down on
the thermometer for now.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Aviation concern will be some light fog west of I-135 early Sun
morning.
Diurnal storms associated with the MCV died off a couple hours
ago. Some light fog will be possible after 09z west of I-135 due
to light upslope flow and rich moisture remaining in place. For
now just ran with a tempo at KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. At this point am
fairly confident we are not looking at widespread dense fog.
Outside of some early morning fog, confidence is high that VFR
conditions will be in place the remainder of Sun.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 71 94 71 97 / 30 0 0 0
Hutchinson 70 95 71 98 / 20 0 0 0
Newton 69 94 71 97 / 20 0 0 0
ElDorado 69 93 70 96 / 20 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 71 93 71 96 / 30 0 0 0
Russell 70 96 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 69 96 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
Salina 71 97 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 70 96 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 69 92 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 68 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 68 91 71 94 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1005 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Have added some fog to areas generally east of a line from McCook
to Hoxie and Gove. Latest 00z models (GFS/NAM) showing boundary
layer rh over 90% moving into the area from the southeast where
thunderstorms and heavy rain occurred earlier in the evening in
the Wichita area. This airmass will linger over our eastern
forecast area through early to mid morning before dissipating. NAM
the most aggressive with dense fog possible while the 03z RUC and
latest HRRR havent caught on to the NAM/GFS boundary layer rh
forecast. Otherwise, no significant changes made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are mainly
sunny with temps well into the 80s. Far eastern zones are seeing
some daytime cumulus popping up. These locales are closest to a
shortwave trough over the central portion of Kansas. Rest of the
CWA under subsidence with surface ridging over the region.
Weak surface cape values in the 400-600 J/kg range in the Hill
City/Norton areas and dewpts in the lower 60s...along with
proximity to the trough could provide enough instability to
trigger a few storms. Effects will diminish with sunset...so have
not put in mention for for the evening hours.
For the overnight hours...clear skies expected with temps falling
mainly into the mid to upper 60s. Southerly gradient does increase
overnight as shortwave moves off the Front Range. Areas could see
gusts nearing 20 mph.
Going into Sunday...H5 ridge fully entrenched over the Central
Plains is going to give the region another day well into the 90s.
850mb temps ranging near +30C to +34C in some locales could have
some spots nearing the 100F mark.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Sunday night-Monday night: A stalled front will remain in place
just north of our CWA acting as focus for possible thunderstorm
development through these periods and cutoff for better
instability. Guidance continues to show weak forcing rotating
around ridge and a light QPF signal in our far north. Based on
position of front I am not particularly confidence in advertised
thunderstorm chances, however keeping slight chance PoPs in our
north is reasonable due to the fronts proximity. Highs Monday
should be slightly lower than Sunday with slightly lower heights
and prefrontal trough to the south...though we should still see
above normal highs in the 90s.
Tuesday-Saturday: H5 ridge continues to dominate the pattern
across the plains with above normal temperatures continuing.
Ridge amplifies enough that we should see predominately dry
conditions Tuesday through Wednesday, with highs back into the
upper 90s to 100F.
By Wednesday night the ridge deamplifies enough to allow quick
moving shortwave troughs to begins rotating back through the
plains, which could bring thunderstorm chances almost each period
from Wed night through next weekend. I am not particularly
confidence in timing/coverage of thunderstorms any day/night as
these fast moving upper level features are not traditionally
handled well at this range, and surface features for initiation
are also in question. This "weakening" of the ridge will also
allow for a slight "drop" in temps back to the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows should generally range from near 60 in the west to
near 70 in the east (as has been the trend the last week). &&
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. May see some
cirrus move in from the west/northwest by mid morning and continue
through the afternoon otherwise skc. Winds begin the period from
the southeast around 10kts then increase toward 16-18kts with
higher gusts during the mid to late morning hours and continue
through the afternoon before falling to around 12kts by 02z and
continuing through the rest of the taf period.
KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. However, will
have to watch the 08z-14z timeframe for the possibility of some
clouds based around 300` or so with some fog move in from the
southeast. Right now models showing higher probability of
IFR/VLIFR conditions happening just east of the terminal.
Otherwise, only some high clouds expected after sunrise. Winds
light southeast and south through 13z then slowly increase with
gusts near 25kts during the late morning through afternoon hours.
Afer 01z winds fall below 12kts from the southeast and continue
through the rest of the taf period.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
454 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quick update to cancel the rest of the severe thunderstorm watch
in north central ND and to reduce PoPs there the remainder of the
pre-dawn hours. RAP model soundings show increasing capping aloft
and radar and satellite imagery show no evidence of additional
convective development behind the cluster of intense storms which
is racing eastward around 50 kt and which is in northeast ND as of
0950 UTC. Thus, we are confident that the risk of severe weather
is over with.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North
Dakota with warm front looping through north central into
northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places series of
subtle short waves moving through the northern plains. Robust
convection continues over northern portions of North Dakota where
strong instability (2-3 KJ/KG) along with very impressive deep
layer shear (~60 kts) are noted. Storms will continue their
eastward progression through the early morning hours.
For the rest of today...storms should push to the east by around
or shortly after sunrise. Cold front will swoop through the area
bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations...with
the southern James River Valley being the possible exception as
the front may not approach until early/mid afternoon. Windy
conditions expected behind the front, especially over northwest
and west-central portions of the state where cool air advection
may allow stronger winds aloft to mix down. A wind advisory will
be posted over that area. Winds diminish in the evening with a
quiet night expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quiet weather expected Monday through Tuesday afternoon as upper
ridge passes over the area.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday...a shortwave trough working
through the Pacific Northwest scoots into and through the upper
ridge. In doing so, moisture advection increases with
thunderstorms initiating along and ahead a surface low as it
slides into western and central North Dakota. The shortwave trough
exits Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Occasional thunderstorm chances expected to end the week as a few
weak disturbances push through the area. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Low-level wind shear over south central ND early this morning will
gradually diminish by 14 UTC as a strong low-level jet with 50 kt
winds as low as 1500 ft AGL subsides. VFR conditions will prevail
today and tonight behind a cold front crossing the area early this
morning. Gusty northwest winds are expected today, with peak gusts
of 30 to 40 kt in parts of western ND, including at KISN and KDIK.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Just minor adjustments to account for for latest conditions. Highs
today across the coast may need to be nudged a few degrees down
with a strengthening SE flow this afternoon. Temps may actually
reach there high in the next hour or two at the coast before
falling.
Upper ridging continues to build into the region today...with
surface high pressure remaining S and E of the region.
Subsidence and westerly flow aloft will allow for sunny and dry
conditions today outside of some thin cirrus.
With developing S/SE gradient flow between offshore high and
strengthening thermal trough in the lee of the Appalachians...a
well developed seabreeze is expected to work well inland today.
Developing onshore flow should max out temps in the upper
70s/lower 80s for south coastal areas...with mid to upper 80s
working inland...as seabreeze works inland this afternoon. Areas
farther west of the Hudson could hit the lower 90s...with
seabreeze likely not making it there until late today if at all.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today due to the combination
of 2-3 ft 9 sec period swells with S/SE winds increasing to 10 to
15 kt this afternoon. Higher confidence of moderate threat is for
Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon with wind and swells
expected to be on higher end of range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Upper ridging gradually breaks down over the region as a northern
stream longwave trough...centered around a Hudson`s Bay upper low...
begins to dig through the Great lakes. Meanwhile...a cutoff upper
low off the southeast coast today will drift northward. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions continue to keep associated surface
low well south and east of the region on Monday.
Radiational cooling conds once again for far outlying
areas...with lows in the 50s. Patchy fog development possible in
these areas late tonight with radiational cooling and increased
moisture levels from onshore flow.
Surface high pressure will continue to reside se of the region
tonight and then gradually get squeezed east on Monday. Dry
conditions will continue with not much more than some cirrus. Warm
advection continues ahead of an approaching cold from with some
increase in humidity levels as well. Once again a sse gradient
and seabreezes working well inland should cap temps in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees for south coastal areas...mid to upper
80s working inland...and around 90 degrees working well west of
the Hudson.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large northern stream trough continues to press east towards
the Northeast US Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly
southward. Timing of associated frontal system continues to be
faster...tied to lead shortwave energy pivoting through Se Canada
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front/pre-frontal trough
approach looks to be Monday night with passage Tue morning,
bringing associated potential for an sct-bkn line of showers and
tstms. With marginal to moderate instability (mainly
elevated)...and gradually increasing shear...cant rule out a
strong thunderstorm or two. Limiting factor for severe will be
weak surface instability and activity outpacing better forcing
well to the NW of the area.
Surface troughing lingers through Tuesday as upper troughing
builds in...but theta-e axis slides east with pre-frontal
trough...limiting any additional shower/tstm activity to isolated.
Offshore flow...lagging caa...and afternoon sunshine should allow
for a very warm day with highs likely well into the 80s areawide.
Mean troughing continues to build into the NE U.S. Tue night into
Wed, however, with dry low levels and mid level capping not
expecting much if any diurnal shower activity.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions as high pressure builds just offshore.
Generally light WSW to SE flow around 5 kt this morning becomes SE
with sea breeze enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Wind
speeds increase to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, strongest at city
terminals and KISP. Winds at KLGA have become NE around 5 to 7 kt
this morning, then afternoon sea breeze expected. Winds become
light overnight.
MVFR fog possible at outlying terminals around daybreak
Monday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt at
south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at night
outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters. There is a low prob of winds gusts reaching 25 kt across
the NY bight and adjacent nearshore waters with late
afternoon/early eve coastal jet development.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will keep
winds to 15 kt or less Monday night-Thursday. Persistent s/se winds
ahead of the approaching cold front and southerly swells could
bring seas to near 5 ft late Mon Night into Tue over the coastal
ocean waters...which could linger into midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. At this time expect generally less
than 1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
possible. No hydrologic impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/NV
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Maloit/NV
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...Maloit/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/NV
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
957 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Marine stratus over the CT / RI border has disintegrated with
diurnal heating and boundary layer mixing. Expecting a return as
we go into the overnight period.
Otherwise a fantastic Father`s Day. Abundant sunshine with perhaps
some scattered mid to high level clouds. Buckled beneath a mid to
upper level ridge with an abundance of dry air per the 12z Chatham
sounding. Should be a warm day with highs close to if not exceeding
90 degrees over the low lying interior of the CT and Merrimack
River Valleys. But closer to the coast and more S and E with onshore
flow it`ll be slightly cooler with highs around the upper 70s to low
80s. With the S/SE onshore flow could see some gusts up to 20 mph
especially over the E waters, so small-boat mariners should be aware.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...Quiet weather continues. Increasing dew points from
persistent south winds, especially late tonight, could lead to
patchy fog. Low temperatures will remain seasonable.
Monday...Expecting a coastal low pressure to stay far enough
offshore to not be a major player in our weather. Dry weather
should prevail. High temperatures similar to today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Broad synoptic ridge-trof pattern defines most of the long term
period. High pres and ridging holding fast across the S and SW
CONUS while downstream across the northeast trof resides blocked
further downstream by blocking ridge south of Greenland. This trof
will relieve the region of the heat-humid connection early in the
week and allow for a tendency back toward seasonal normal
temperatures and dwpts toward the latter half of the week. The
largest discrepancies begin late in the week with the development
of yet another offshore low pres along a stalled frontal boundary
to the S. Deterministic guidance continues to be on the northern
side of the envelope with more of a potential for impact on Srn
New England. However, ensembles are quite spread and if anything,
actually tend toward the south in the face of high pres building
across Nrn New England. Will begin using a blend of the available
deterministic guidance, bet then taper toward a blend of
ECENS/GEFS ensemble means later in the week.
Details...
Mon night into Tue night...
Cold front approaches and crosses the region as previously
advertised connected to low pres moving through QC. At odds is the
timing, while previous runs were much slower, allowing for full
destabilization to occur, latest runs are faster, pushing the
front through during the AM hours. This limits potential
destabilization and even ensemble probabilities are lower now for
+1000j/kg of CAPE. Will maintain some mention of TS as afternoon
SLIs and Showalters remain below 0 through the afternoon as the
front slows offshore and the upper trof lags. However, the earlier
passage will limit the risk for strong-severe storms. Something to
continue to watch as we approach as shear values remain elevated.
Otherwise, humid as dwpts increase to the mid 60s. With enough
sun, temps should still make a run into the low-mid 80s.
Wed through Thu...
Trof settles across the region with cyclonic flow and cooling H5
temps to near or below -15C. This should be enough for diurnally
driven clouds each day, along with a risk for shra or even an
isolated TS, however far from a washout as moisture will be
limited with stacked NW flow. Temps back down to seasonal normals,
mainly mid-upper 70s thanks to H85 temps dropping back closer to
+8C.
Fri and Fri night...
Stalled frontal boundary remains to the S and will allow for
enhanced cyclogenesis. The resultant low pres will pass somewhere
S of New England, but how close is the question. Should it pass
near or even just S of the 40/70 benchmark it could lead to a
period of wet wx as it carries with it a subtropical moisture
source. However, ensembles are well spread and even tend S, so at
this time, will lean closer on this solution until there is better
agreement. The initiating shortwave is currently locked within the
vortex across the PACNW.
Next weekend...
Dependent on the speed with which the offshore low pres passes,
but high pres looks to regain control as the base of the longwave
trof begins a shift to the E.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...
Today...High confidence.
VFR. Winds mainly S with the potential for gusts up to 20 kts
over the E terminals.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR but low risk for another round of stratus developing
mainly across CT/RI late. Timing/extent a low confidence forecast.
Tomorrow...High confidence.
Mainly VFR after any fog/stratus burns off.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Mon night into Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE today, with
the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Small-boat mariners
should be especially aware. Seas could get a bit choppy with
waves up to near 5 feet over portions of the E Massachusetts
coastal waters. Not enough confidence to issue a small craft
advisory, at this time.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday night into Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to
6 feet on the outer waters.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
723 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM Update...
Interesting to note that a very localized and shallow band of
stratus has formed just inland of LI sound this morning, and only
within the last couple of hours. Some models hinting at this again
tonight, but with a larger aerial extent. This may be a forecast
challenge for the overnight. Otherwise, forecast remains on track
this morning, lowered early temps a bit, but otherwise all is on
track.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure shifts farther east over the Gulf of Maine,
resulting in a southeast to south flow. Decent mixing should also
mean gust winds up to 20 mph at times, particularly toward the
coasts. Abundant sunshine and south winds will mean above normal
temperatures, especially away from the immediate south coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...Quiet weather continues. Increasing dew points from
persistent south winds, especially late tonight, could lead to
patchy fog. Low temperatures will remain seasonable.
Monday...Expecting a coastal low pressure to stay far enough
offshore to not be a major player in our weather. Dry weather
should prevail. High temperatures similar to today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Broad synoptic ridge-trof pattern defines most of the long term
period. High pres and ridging holding fast across the S and SW
CONUS while downstream across the northeast trof resides blocked
further downstream by blocking ridge south of Greenland. This trof
will relieve the region of the heat-humid connection early in the
week and allow for a tendency back toward seasonal normal
temperatures and dwpts toward the latter half of the week. The
largest discrepancies begin late in the week with the development
of yet another offshore low pres along a stalled frontal boundary
to the S. Deterministic guidance continues to be on the northern
side of the envelope with more of a potential for impact on Srn
New England. However, ensembles are quite spread and if anything,
actually tend toward the south in the face of high pres building
across Nrn New England. Will begin using a blend of the available
deterministic guidance, bet then taper toward a blend of
ECENS/GEFS ensemble means later in the week.
Details...
Mon night into Tue night...
Cold front approaches and crosses the region as previously
advertised connected to low pres moving through QC. At odds is the
timing, while previous runs were much slower, allowing for full
destabilization to occur, latest runs are faster, pushing the
front through during the AM hours. This limits potential
destabilization and even ensemble probabilities are lower now for
+1000j/kg of CAPE. Will maintain some mention of TS as afternoon
SLIs and Showalters remain below 0 through the afternoon as the
front slows offshore and the upper trof lags. However, the earlier
passage will limit the risk for strong-severe storms. Something to
continue to watch as we approach as shear values remain elevated.
Otherwise, humid as dwpts increase to the mid 60s. With enough
sun, temps should still make a run into the low-mid 80s.
Wed through Thu...
Trof settles across the region with cyclonic flow and cooling H5
temps to near or below -15C. This should be enough for diurnally
driven clouds each day, along with a risk for shra or even an
isolated TS, however far from a washout as moisture will be
limited with stacked NW flow. Temps back down to seasonal normals,
mainly mid-upper 70s thanks to H85 temps dropping back closer to
+8C.
Fri and Fri night...
Stalled frontal boundary remains to the S and will allow for
enhanced cyclogenesis. The resultant low pres will pass somewhere
S of New England, but how close is the question. Should it pass
near or even just S of the 40/70 benchmark it could lead to a
period of wet wx as it carries with it a subtropical moisture
source. However, ensembles are well spread and even tend S, so at
this time, will lean closer on this solution until there is better
agreement. The initiating shortwave is currently locked within the
vortex across the PACNW.
Next weekend...
Dependent on the speed with which the offshore low pres passes,
but high pres looks to regain control as the base of the longwave
trof begins a shift to the E.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...
Today...High confidence.
VFR after a few low clouds break up across CT/RI. Winds mainly S.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR but low risk for another round of stratus/fog
developing mainly across CT/RI late. Timing/extent a low
confidence forecast.
Tomorrow...High confidence.
Mainly VFR after any fog/stratus burns off.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Mon night into Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE today, with
the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get a bit
choppy with waves up to near 5 feet over portions of the
northeastern outer Massachusetts coastal waters. Not enough
confidence to issue a small craft advisory, at this time.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday night into Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to
6 feet on the outer waters.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region today...with
surface high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
A narrow mid-deck will slide se through CT/Li this morning...associated
with a shortwave rounding the ne edge of ridging.
Thereafter...subsidence and westerly flow aloft will allow for
sunny and dry conditions today outside of some thin cirrus.
With developing s/se gradient flow between offshore high and
strengthening thermal trough in the lee of the Appalachians...a
well developed seabreeze is expected to work well inland today.
Developing onshore flow should max out temps in the upper
70s/lower 80s for south coastal areas...with mid to upper 80s
working inland...as seabreeze works inland this afternoon. Areas
farther west of the Hudson could hit the lower 90s...with
seabreeze likely not making it there until late today if at all.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today due to the combination
of 2-3 ft 9 sec period swells with s/se winds increasing to 10 to
15 kt this afternoon. Higher confidence of moderate threat is for
Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon with wind and swells
expected to be on higher end of range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Upper ridging gradually breaks down over the region as a northern
stream longwave trough...centered around a Hudson`s Bay upper low...
begins to dig through the Great lakes. Meanwhile...a cutoff upper
low off the southeast coast today will drift northward. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions continue to keep associated surface
low well south and east of the region on Monday.
Radiational cooling conds once again for far outlying
areas...with lows in the 50s. Patchy fog development possible in
these areas late tonight with radiational cooling and increased
moisture levels from onshore flow.
Surface high pressure will continue to reside se of the region
tonight and then gradually get squeezed east on Monday. Dry
conditions will continue with not much more than some cirrus. Warm
advection continues ahead of an approaching cold from with some
increase in humidity levels as well. Once again a sse gradient
and seabreezes working well inland should cap temps in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees for south coastal areas...mid to upper
80s working inland...and around 90 degrees working well west of
the Hudson.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large northern stream trough continues to press east towards
the Northeast US Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly
southward. Timing of associated frontal system continues to be
faster...tied to lead shortwave energy pivoting through Se Canada
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front/pre-frontal trough
approach looks to be Monday night with passage Tue morning,
bringing associated potential for an sct-bkn line of showers and
tstms. With marginal to moderate instability (mainly
elevated)...and gradually increasing shear...cant rule out a
strong thunderstorm or two. Limiting factor for severe will be
weak surface instability and activity outpacing better forcing
well to the NW of the area.
Surface troughing lingers through Tuesday as upper troughing
builds in...but theta-e axis slides east with pre-frontal
trough...limiting any additional shower/tstm activity to isolated.
Offshore flow...lagging caa...and afternoon sunshine should allow
for a very warm day with highs likely well into the 80s areawide.
Mean troughing continues to build into the NE U.S. Tue night into
Wed, however, with dry low levels and mid level capping not
expecting much if any diurnal shower activity.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through much of tonight as high pressure builds just
offshore.
Generally light WSW to SE flow around 5 kt this morning becomes SE
with sea breeze enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Wind
speeds increase to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, strongest at city
terminals and KISP. Winds at KLGA will become NE around 5 to 7 kt
around 14z before sea breeze moves through early afternoon. Winds
become light overnight.
MVFR fog possible at outlying terminals around daybreak
Monday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt at
south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at night
outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters. There is a low prob of winds gusts reaching 25 kt across
the NY bight and adjacent nearshore waters with late
afternoon/early eve coastal jet development.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will keep
winds to 15 kt or less Monday night-Thursday. Persistent s/se winds
ahead of the approaching cold front and southerly swells could
bring seas to near 5 ft late Mon Night into Tue over the coastal
ocean waters...which could linger into midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. At this time expect generally less
than 1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
possible. No hydrologic impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Maloit/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/NV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region today...with
surface high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
A narrow mid-deck will slide se through CT/Li this morning...associated
with a shortwave rounding the ne edge of ridging.
Thereafter...subsidence and westerly flow aloft will allow for
sunny and dry conditions today outside of some thin cirrus.
With developing s/se gradient flow between offshore high and
strengthening thermal trough in the lee of the Appalachians...a
well developed seabreeze is expected to work well inland today.
Developing onshore flow should max out temps in the upper
70s/lower 80s for south coastal areas...with mid to upper 80s
working inland...as seabreeze works inland this afternoon. Areas
farther west of the Hudson could hit the lower 90s...with
seabreeze likely not making it there until late today if at all.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today due to the combination
of 2-3 ft 9 sec period swells with s/se winds increasing to 10 to
15 kt this afternoon. Higher confidence of moderate threat is for
Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon with wind and swells
expected to be on higher end of range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Upper ridging gradually breaks down over the region as a northern
stream longwave trough...centered around a Hudson`s Bay upper low...
begins to dig through the Great lakes. Meanwhile...a cutoff upper
low off the southeast coast today will drift northward. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions continue to keep associated surface
low well south and east of the region on Monday.
Radiational cooling conds once again for far outlying
areas...with lows in the 50s. Patchy fog development possible in
these areas late tonight with radiational cooling and increased
moisture levels from onshore flow.
Surface high pressure will continue to reside se of the region
tonight and then gradually get squeezed east on Monday. Dry
conditions will continue with not much more than some cirrus. Warm
advection continues ahead of an approaching cold from with some
increase in humidity levels as well. Once again a sse gradient
and seabreezes working well inland should cap temps in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees for south coastal areas...mid to upper
80s working inland...and around 90 degrees working well west of
the Hudson.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large northern stream trough continues to press east towards
the Northeast US Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly
southward. Timing of associated frontal system continues to be
faster...tied to lead shortwave energy pivoting through Se Canada
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front/pre-frontal trough
approach looks to be Monday night with passage Tue morning,
bringing associated potential for an sct-bkn line of showers and
tstms. With marginal to moderate instability (mainly
elevated)...and gradually increasing shear...cant rule out a
strong thunderstorm or two. Limiting factor for severe will be
weak surface instability and activity outpacing better forcing
well to the NW of the area.
Surface troughing lingers through Tuesday as upper troughing
builds in...but theta-e axis slides east with pre-frontal
trough...limiting any additional shower/tstm activity to isolated.
Offshore flow...lagging caa...and afternoon sunshine should allow
for a very warm day with highs likely well into the 80s areawide.
Mean troughing continues to build into the NE U.S. Tue night into
Wed, however, with dry low levels and mid level capping not
expecting much if any diurnal shower activity.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through much of tonight as high pressure builds just
offshore.
Generally light WSW to SE flow around 5 kt this morning becomes SE
with sea breeze enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Wind
speeds increase to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, strongest at city
terminals and KISP. Winds at KLGA will become NE around 5 to 7 kt
around 14z before sea breeze moves through early afternoon. Winds
become light overnight.
MVFR fog possible at outlying terminals around daybreak
Monday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt at
south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at night
outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters. There is a low prob of winds gusts reaching 25 kt across
the NY bight and adjacent nearshore waters with late
afternoon/early eve coastal jet development.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will keep
winds to 15 kt or less Monday night-Thursday. Persistent s/se winds
ahead of the approaching cold front and southerly swells could
bring seas to near 5 ft late Mon Night into Tue over the coastal
ocean waters...which could linger into midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. At this time expect generally less
than 1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
possible. No hydrologic impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Maloit/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/NV
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
626 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing warmth and humidity will be the theme for the remainder
of this weekend into Monday. A cold front will move across Monday
night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less
humid conditions with a shower or two are in the forecast for the
middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM...A mainly sunny start to one of our longest day of
sunshine for the year as temperatures are already responding to
strong June sunshine. The pesky CI/CS south and east of Albany continues
to slide southward and dissipate as more prominent mid and upper
level ridge builds into the region today. This should result in highs
topping out near 90F for valley locations with mainly 80s
elsewhere. Some clouds may move across later this afternoon along
with diurnal terrain based cumulus which may limit highs to near
80F across the higher terrain.
The aforementioned ridge axis is expected to slip southward
tonight as low and mid level synoptic flow becomes increasingly
from the southwest. Overnight lows will generally fall into the
middle 50s to lower 60s as surface dewpoints begin their slow
climb.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer solstice arrives Monday June 20th at 634 PM EDT as warm
and muggy conditions will precede a cold front Monday into Monday
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...we continue the trend with an increasing southwesterly
flow regime which will assist with additional moisture transport.
With this added moisture, so are the diurnal cumulus clouds.
Temperatures should be close to slightly below to Sunday`s values
but with higher dewpoints will make the heat index (apparent
temperature) around 90F for valley locations. This all ahead of a
cold front that will be marching across the western and central
Great Lakes through the day.
Latest NCEP model suite along with the ECMWF differ a bit with
respect to timing of frontal passage Monday night with the NAM the
slowest of the guidance. Regardless, the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms are Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has placed the slight risk across western New York with
marginal risk across the remainder of our region. As this frontal
passage will be occurring during the nocturnal time frame, little
to no surface based instability is seen in the latest guidance
with most the instability aloft. Showalters remain below 0C along
with decent wind shear magnitudes of 30-40kts. So with a good
focus for convergence along with these parameters aloft, we will
continue with the likely pops across portions of the Dacks where
the front will be the closest to what is left of the surface based
instability then transition to chance-scattered pops for the
remainder of the overnight. Lows will range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s.
In the wake of the frontal passage by early Tuesday morning, a
period of subsidence and anti-cyclonic surface ridge should
result in a dry and more comfortable day. While cyclonic flow
remains in place aloft, mid level moisture remains quite dry so a
partly-mostly sunny day is expected for first full day of Summer
2016. Dewpoints fall back through the 50s as afternoon high
temperatures will average 75-85F for valley locations to low-mid
70s for the higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With a cold front now well to the east and an upper level trough
moving over the Northeast, cooler and less humid air will continue
to filter into the region from the northwest for Tuesday night. Much
of Tuesday night should be dry across the region, with temperatures
falling into the 50s in most areas. There still may be some passing
clouds thanks to the approaching upper level trough.
During the day on Wednesday, some showers may develop, esp for
northern and high terrain areas, thanks to the cooler temps aloft
from the upper level trough overhead. Will go with a slight chc for
most areas, with chc pops across the far northwestern Adirondacks.
Temps will be below normal for late June with highs only in the 70s
across much of the region. Dewpoints will be comfortable in the
40s. Dry weather should continue right into Wed night with lows in
the 50s and a partly to mostly clear sky.
The next feature to watch will be an area of sfc low pressure moving
from the Midwest/Ohio Valley towards the mid-Atlantic states on
Thursday into Friday. The models and ensembles are still unclear on
the exact track of this system, but some members do show it tracking
far enough to the north to bring some showers into the southern half
of the region. Will go with slight to low chc pops, mainly for
southern areas, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temps will
continue to be the cooler side for the late week period with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The exact temps will ultimately
depend on the track of the sfc low pressure area.
The surface wave will depart off the coast and the upper level
trough will finally start to move away for the weekend, allowing for
heights to build. This should allow temps to return to near normal
or perhaps even above normal depending on how quickly warmer air
returns to the region. Will go with a mainly dry forecast for the
weekend due to nearby sfc high pressure and upper level ridging with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some thin cirrus clouds are moving southward across the mid-Hudson
Valley and Berkshires this morning, otherwise skies are clear with
light or calm winds. During the day today, there may be few-sct
patches of cirrus clouds that move in from the northwest, otherwise
skies will be mainly clear with vfr conditions. Light southerly
winds will be around 5 kts.
By this evening, winds will become calm and skies look to be clear
for tonight with continued vfr conditions. Low dewpoints and the
short duration of the overnight hours should prevent widespread
radiational fog from developing overnight. Cannot totally rule out
a very brief period of fog/mist just prior to daybreak at kpsf,
otherwise no weather-related aviation impacts are expected through
the taf period ending at 12z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: No operational impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Scattered
SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum relative humidity values fall to between 30 and 40
percent this afternoon...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night with
another chance for scattered showers on Wednesday. Otherwise,
dry conditions should prevail through the mid-week period.
Minimum relative humidity values will fall back to between 30 and
40 percent today, recover to between 75 and 95 percent tonight,
then remain generally between 40 and 50 percent Monday afternoon.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 mph through Monday with
a direction mainly southerly.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the upcoming week.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome and have minimal
impact to rivers and streams.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing warmth and humidity will be the theme for the remainder
of this weekend into Monday. A cold front will move across Monday
night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and less
humid conditions with a shower or two are in the forecast for the
middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pesky CI/CS across the region continues to slide southward and
dissipate as more prominent mid and upper level ridge builds into
the region today. This should result in a good deal of June
sunshine as we approach the longest day of the year with respect
to sunshine minutes as highs should top out near 90F for valley
locations with mainly 80s elsewhere. Some clouds may move across
later this afternoon along with diurnal terrain based cumulus
which may limit highs to near 80F across the higher terrain.
The aforementioned ridge axis is expected to slip southward
tonight as low and mid level synoptic flow becomes increasingly
from the southwest. Overnight lows will generally fall into the
middle 50s to lower 60s as surface dewpoints begin their slow
climb.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer solstice arrives Monday June 20th at 634 PM EDT as warm
and muggy conditions will precede a cold front Monday into Monday
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...we continue the trend with an increasing southwesterly
flow regime which will assist with additional moisture transport.
With this added moisture, so are the diurnal cumulus clouds.
Temperatures should be close to slightly below to Sunday`s values
but with higher dewpoints will make the heat index (apparent
temperature) around 90F for valley locations. This all ahead of a
cold front that will be marching across the western and central
Great Lakes through the day.
Latest NCEP model suite along with the ECMWF differ a bit with
respect to timing of frontal passage Monday night with the NAM the
slowest of the guidance. Regardless, the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms are Monday night. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has placed the slight risk across western New York with
marginal risk across the remainder of our region. As this frontal
passage will be occurring during the nocturnal time frame, little
to no surface based instability is seen in the latest guidance
with most the instability aloft. Showalters remain below 0C along
with decent wind shear magnitudes of 30-40kts. So with a good
focus for convergence along with these parameters aloft, we will
continue with the likely pops across portions of the Dacks where
the front will be the closest to what is left of the surface based
instability then transition to chance-scattered pops for the
remainder of the overnight. Lows will range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s.
In the wake of the frontal passage by early Tuesday morning, a
period of subsidence and anti-cyclonic surface ridge should
result in a dry and more comfortable day. While cyclonic flow
remains in place aloft, mid level moisture remains quite dry so a
partly-mostly sunny day is expected for first full day of Summer
2016. Dewpoints fall back through the 50s as afternoon high
temperatures will average 75-85F for valley locations to low-mid
70s for the higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With a cold front now well to the east and an upper level trough
moving over the Northeast, cooler and less humid air will continue
to filter into the region from the northwest for Tuesday night. Much
of Tuesday night should be dry across the region, with temperatures
falling into the 50s in most areas. There still may be some passing
clouds thanks to the approaching upper level trough.
During the day on Wednesday, some showers may develop, esp for
northern and high terrain areas, thanks to the cooler temps aloft
from the upper level trough overhead. Will go with a slight chc for
most areas, with chc pops across the far northwestern Adirondacks.
Temps will be below normal for late June with highs only in the 70s
across much of the region. Dewpoints will be comfortable in the
40s. Dry weather should continue right into Wed night with lows in
the 50s and a partly to mostly clear sky.
The next feature to watch will be an area of sfc low pressure moving
from the Midwest/Ohio Valley towards the mid-Atlantic states on
Thursday into Friday. The models and ensembles are still unclear on
the exact track of this system, but some members do show it tracking
far enough to the north to bring some showers into the southern half
of the region. Will go with slight to low chc pops, mainly for
southern areas, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temps will
continue to be the cooler side for the late week period with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The exact temps will ultimately
depend on the track of the sfc low pressure area.
The surface wave will depart off the coast and the upper level
trough will finally start to move away for the weekend, allowing for
heights to build. This should allow temps to return to near normal
or perhaps even above normal depending on how quickly warmer air
returns to the region. Will go with a mainly dry forecast for the
weekend due to nearby sfc high pressure and upper level ridging with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum relative humidity values fall to between 30 and 40
percent this afternoon...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night with
another chance for scattered showers on Wednesday. Otherwise,
dry conditions should prevail through the mid-week period.
Minimum relative humidity values will fall back to between 30 and
40 percent today, recover to between 75 and 95 percent tonight,
then remain generally between 40 and 50 percent Monday afternoon.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 mph through Monday with
a direction mainly southerly.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the upcoming week.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome and have minimal
impact to rivers and streams.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region today...with high
pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Some early morning mid-deck associated with a shortwave rounding
the ne edge of ridging. Otherwise...subsidence and westerly flow
aloft will allow for sunny and dry conditions today outside of
some thin cirrus.
With developing s/se gradient flow between offshore high and
thermal trough in the lee of the Appalachians...a well developed
seabreeze is expected to work well inland today. Developing
onshore flow should max out temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s for
south coastal areas...with mid to upper 80s most
elsewhere...before seabreeze works inland. Areas a bit west of the
Hudson could hit the lower 90s...with seabreeze likely not making
it there until late today if at all.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today due to the combination
of 2-3 ft 9 sec period swells with s/se winds increasing to 10 to
15 kt this afternoon. Higher confidence of moderate threat is for
Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon with wind and swells
expected to be on higher end of range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Upper ridging gradually breaks down over the region as a northern
stream longwave trough...centered around a Hudson`s Bay upper low...
begins to dig through the Great lakes. Meanwhile...a cutoff upper
low off the southeast coast today will drift northward. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions continue to keep associated surface
low well south and east of the region on Monday.
Radiational cooling conds once again for far outlying
areas...with lows in the 50s. Patchy fog development possible in
these areas late tonight with radiational cooling and increased
moisture levels from onshore flow.
Surface high pressure will continue to reside se of the region
tonight and then gradually get squeezed east on Monday. Dry
conditions will continue with not much more than some cirrus. Warm
advection continues ahead of an approaching cold from with some
increase in humidity levels as well. Once again a sse gradient
and seabreezes working well inland should cap temps in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees for south coastal areas...mid to upper
80s working inland...and around 90 degrees working well west of
the Hudson.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large northern stream trough continues to press east towards
the Northeast US Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly
southward. Timing of associated frontal system continues to be
faster...tied to lead shortwave energy pivoting through Se Canada
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front/pre-frontal trough
approach looks to be Monday night with passage Tue morning,
bringing associated potential for an sct-bkn line of showers and
tstms. With marginal to moderate instability (mainly
elevated)...and gradually increasing shear...cant rule out a
strong thunderstorm or two. Limiting factor for severe will be
weak surface instability and activity outpacing better forcing
well to the NW of the area.
Surface troughing lingers through Tuesday as upper troughing
builds in...but theta-e axis slides east with pre-frontal
trough...limiting any additional shower/tstm activity to isolated.
Offshore flow...lagging caa...and afternoon sunshine should allow
for a very warm day with highs likely well into the 80s areawide.
Mean troughing continues to build into the NE U.S. Tue night into
Wed, however, with dry low levels and mid level capping not
expecting much if any diurnal shower activity.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds just offshore.
A light and variable flow inland early this morning, and light
southerly at the coastal terminals. Generally light WSW to SE
flow around 5 kt after sunrise becomes SE with sea breeze
enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon, strongest at city terminals and KISP. Winds at
KLGA should become NE around 5 kt after 14z before sea breeze
passage around 17z.
SE winds become light overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. MVFR fog possible at KGON, KSWF, and
KHPN late.
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt
at south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at
night outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will keep
winds to 15 kt or less Monday night-Thursday. Persistent s/se winds
ahead of the approaching cold front and southerly swells could
bring seas to near 5 ft late Mon Night into Tue over the coastal
ocean waters...which could linger into midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. At this time expect generally less
than 1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
possible. No hydrologic impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Maloit/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
349 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure shifts farther east over the Gulf of Maine,
resulting in a southeast to south flow. Decent mixing should also
mean gust winds up to 20 mph at times, particularly toward the
coasts. Abundant sunshine and south winds will mean above normal
temperatures, especially away from the immediate south coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...Quiet weather continues. Increasing dew points from
persistent south winds, especially late tonight, could lead to
patchy fog. Low temperatures will remain seasonable.
Monday...Expecting a coastal low pressure to stay far enough
offshore to not be a major player in our weather. Dry weather
should prevail. High temperatures similar to today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Broad synoptic ridge-trof pattern defines most of the long term
period. High pres and ridging holding fast across the S and SW
CONUS while downstream across the northeast trof resides blocked
further downstream by blocking ridge south of Greenland. This trof
will relieve the region of the heat-humid connection early in the
week and allow for a tendency back toward seasonal normal
temperatures and dwpts toward the latter half of the week. The
largest discrepancies begin late in the week with the development
of yet another offshore low pres along a stalled frontal boundary
to the S. Deterministic guidance continues to be on the northern
side of the envelope with more of a potential for impact on Srn
New England. However, ensembles are quite spread and if anything,
actually tend toward the south in the face of high pres building
across Nrn New England. Will begin using a blend of the available
deterministic guidance, bet then taper toward a blend of
ECENS/GEFS ensemble means later in the week.
Details...
Mon night into Tue night...
Cold front approaches and crosses the region as previously
advertised connected to low pres moving through QC. At odds is the
timing, while previous runs were much slower, allowing for full
destabilization to occur, latest runs are faster, pushing the
front through during the AM hours. This limits potential
destabilization and even ensemble probabilities are lower now for
+1000j/kg of CAPE. Will maintain some mention of TS as afternoon
SLIs and Showalters remain below 0 through the afternoon as the
front slows offshore and the upper trof lags. However, the earlier
passage will limit the risk for strong-severe storms. Something to
continue to watch as we approach as shear values remain elevated.
Otherwise, humid as dwpts increase to the mid 60s. With enough
sun, temps should still make a run into the low-mid 80s.
Wed through Thu...
Trof settles across the region with cyclonic flow and cooling H5
temps to near or below -15C. This should be enough for diurnally
driven clouds each day, along with a risk for shra or even an
isolated TS, however far from a washout as moisture will be
limited with stacked NW flow. Temps back down to seasonal normals,
mainly mid-upper 70s thanks to H85 temps dropping back closer to
+8C.
Fri and Fri night...
Stalled frontal boundary remains to the S and will allow for
enhanced cyclogenesis. The resultant low pres will pass somewhere
S of New England, but how close is the question. Should it pass
near or even just S of the 40/70 benchmark it could lead to a
period of wet wx as it carries with it a subtropical moisture
source. However, ensembles are well spread and even tend S, so at
this time, will lean closer on this solution until there is better
agreement. The initiating shortwave is currently locked within the
vortex across the PACNW.
Next weekend...
Dependent on the speed with which the offshore low pres passes,
but high pres looks to regain control as the base of the longwave
trof begins a shift to the E.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds become S/SE today. Breezy at times during the
day, with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR patchy fog late
tonight. Scattered mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Mon night into Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE today, with
the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get a bit
choppy with waves up to near 5 feet over portions of the
northeastern outer Massachusetts coastal waters. Not enough
confidence to issue a small craft advisory, at this time.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday night into Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to
6 feet on the outer waters.
Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
258 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure shifts farther east over the Gulf of Maine,
resulting in a southeast to south flow. Decent mixing should also
mean gust winds up to 20 mph at times, particularly toward the
coasts. Abundant sunshine and south winds will mean above normal
temperatures, especially away from the immediate south coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...Quiet weather continues. Increasing dew points from
persistent south winds, especially late tonight, could lead to
patchy fog. Low temperatures will remain seasonable.
Monday...Expecting a coastal low pressure to stay far enough
offshore to not be a major player in our weather. Dry weather
should prevail. High temperatures similar to today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Two main concerns during this long
term period: showers and thunderstorms with a cold front Tuesday,
and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold
front through southern New England. There are still some
uncertainties regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF
quickest and the GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the
front regardless of the timing, if the front comes through during
the peak heating hours of the afternoon we could see some
thunderstorms. At this point, the 12Z models are not indicating
much, if any, instability, so will not have any mention of thunder
in the forecast at this time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have
a low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and
passing over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday.
The EPS ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure
over the northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a
bit more of an indication that there`s some support for the
operational model. All that to say, confidence is low for this
period of the forecast. Should the operational models verify,
we`re looking at a cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far
from certain. Just something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds become S/SE today. Breezy at times during the
day, with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR patchy fog late
tonight. Scattered mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE today, with
the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get a bit
choppy with waves up to 5 feet over portions of the northeastern
outer Massachusetts coastal waters. Still thinking about the need
for a small craft advisory later tonight into Monday.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RLG
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Belk/RLG
MARINE...Belk/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck continues to slide across the region from
north to south. These clouds are expected to be south and east of
the area by sunrise. Forecast really only needs some minor changes
to cloud and temperature trends overnight...although min temps
remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although upper level heights are building over the area, northerly
flow on the backside of a departing upper level trough is allowing
for some thin high cirrus clouds early this morning. Will continue
to allow for sct-bkn cirrus clouds through about 12z or so. Because
of these thin clouds in place and the limited low level moisture in
place, no radiational fog is expected early this morning, keeping
VFR conditions in place with light or calm winds.
During the day on Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with nearly
clear skies for all sites. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts. Winds will become calm at all sites after sunset, with
continued clear skies and VFR conditions for Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds just offshore.
A light and variable flow inland early this morning, and light
southerly at the coastal terminals. Generally light WSW to SE
flow around 5 kt after sunrise becomes SE with sea breeze
enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon, strongest at city terminals and KISP. Winds at
KLGA should become NE around 5 kt after 14z before sea breeze
passage around 17z.
SE winds become light overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. MVFR fog possible at KGON, KSWF, and
KHPN late.
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt
at south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at
night outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds just offshore.
A light and variable flow inland early this morning, and light
southerly at the coastal terminals. Generally light WSW to SE
flow around 5 kt after sunrise becomes SE with sea breeze
enhancement late morning through the afternoon. Speeds 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon, strongest at city terminals and KISP. Winds at
KLGA should become NE around 5 kt after 14z before sea breeze
passage around 17z.
SE winds become light overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. MVFR fog possible at KGON, KSWF, and
KHPN late.
.Monday-Monday Night...Mainly VFR during the day. Gusts to 20 kt
at south coast terminals Monday afternoon. MVFR fog possible at
night outlying terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and light southerly
at the coastal terminals. SE-S winds Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements. KLGA may for a time
Sunday morning be out of the NE with a wind off the East River.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and light southerly
at the coastal terminals. SE-S winds Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements. KLGA may for a time
Sunday morning be out of the NE with a wind off the East River.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1031 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast. Made minor updates to temperatures
and dewpoints for latest trends.
Previous discussion...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Cannot
rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/RLG/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1031 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast. Made minor updates to temperatures
and dewpoints for latest trends.
Previous discussion...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Cannot
rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/RLG/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT/BKN cirrus deck sliding across the region tonight. These
clouds will be south and east of the area by sunrise. Forecast
really only needs some minor changes to cloud and temperature
trends overnight...although min temps remain unchanged.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at all levels of that atmosphere will be in place
across the region through the forecast period.
Thus VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the
period.
There were some differences noted in MOS forecast guidance
between GFS and NAM at KPOU and KPSF tonight. GFS MOS argues for
MVFR conditions at KPOU and IFR at KPSF in BR. However, current
Temp/Dew Point spreads at all terminals 30-40F. With very dry
atmosphere in place, will side with drier NAM forecast thus
yielding the VFR forecast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and southerly at the
coastal terminals. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight.
With a mainly clear sky and light winds, conditions will be good
for radiational cooling. Lows mainly from the mid 50s to lower
60s across the Tri-state, except upper 40s-lower 50s in normally
cooler locations, and mid to upper 60s in NYC proper.
There is a very low chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson
River Valley, however confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for southern coastal areas, with mainly mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreezes can be
expected once again. Areas well N/W of the NYC metro could hit
reach the lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling mainly to within a few
degrees of either side of normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected.
A light and variable flow inland overnight, and southerly at the
coastal terminals. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few
kts higher than Saturday afternoon with perhaps some gusts to near
20 kt with local seabreeze enhancements.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals Monday afternoon.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
739 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main update this evening is to allow for a few more clouds,
albeit of the high variety. IR satellite showing a pretty good
swath of higher level clouds dropping south in northerly flow
aloft. Thus forecast adjusted for a period of partly cloudy skies
tonight. Minor updates to reflect current temp/dew point trends as
well.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at all levels of that atmosphere will be in place
across the region through the forecast period.
Thus VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the
period.
There were some differences noted in MOS forecast guidance
between GFS and NAM at KPOU and KPSF tonight. GFS MOS argues for
MVFR conditions at KPOU and IFR at KPSF in BR. However, current
Temp/Dew Point spreads at all terminals 30-40F. With very dry
atmosphere in place, will side with drier NAM forecast thus
yielding the VFR forecast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
739 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main update this evening is to allow for a few more clouds,
albeit of the high variety. IR satellite showing a pretty good
swath of higher level clouds dropping south in northerly flow
aloft. Thus forecast adjusted for a period of partly cloudy skies
tonight. Minor updates to reflect current temp/dew point trends as
well.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at all levels of that atmosphere will be in place
across the region through the forecast period.
Thus VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the
period.
There were some differences noted in MOS forecast guidance
between GFS and NAM at KPOU and KPSF tonight. GFS MOS argues for
MVFR conditions at KPOU and IFR at KPSF in BR. However, current
Temp/Dew Point spreads at all terminals 30-40F. With very dry
atmosphere in place, will side with drier NAM forecast thus
yielding the VFR forecast.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
658 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...No major changes to the forecast. Made minor updates
to temperatures and dewpoints for latest trends.
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Cannot
rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...RLG/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through Monday. A cold
front approaches from the west Monday night, then crosses the
Tri- State on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in from
the west for the middle of next week. An area of low pressure
passes to the south on Friday, with high pressure then building
back in for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper level ridging continues to build into the region
tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains over the area.
With clear skies and light winds, conditions will be good for
radiational cooling. Across the far outlying areas...lows will fall
into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj metro...but
relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere.
There is a chance of some patchy fog across the Hudson River Valley,
however confidence is low at this time and will leave out of the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region Sunday and Sunday night. Sunny
and dry conditions continue Sunday with temperatures maxing out in
the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s most
elsewhere. Another afternoon of seabreeze can be expected once again
during the afternoon. Areas well N and W of the NYC metro could hit
lower 90s with seabreezes likely not making it there.
Sunday night remains dry with lows falling into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging gets suppressed to the southwest on Monday,
as a cutoff low moves well to the east, and a northern stream
trough moves into southeastern Canada. There should be enough
residual subsidence as the ridge retreats, to keep things dry on
Monday. For highs on Monday, a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures, and a mix down from 975-900 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal from NYC
on N/W and near normal elsewhere.
The northern stream trough continues to press east across SE
Canada Monday night and Tuesday, as it digs slightly southward.
There should be sufficient forcing ahead of the trough, and its
associated cold front at the surface, to warrant chance pops,
initially over far NW portions of the CWA Monday night, then
everywhere on Tuesday. For now have limited pops to chance, as
there is disagreement among the various solutions as to how well
any convection holds together as it heads east across the cwa on
Tuesday.
Noting Showalter indices forecast to be generally -2 to 2 from
late Monday night into Tuesday and forecast CAPES of 1000-2000
J/kg, 30-35 kt of 0-6km Bulk Shear on Tuesday, have a slight
chance of thunder on Monday night and a chance of thunder on
Tuesday. Bulk Richardson numbers on Tuesday increase from 25-50 to
50-100 as the day progresses on Tuesday, so have the potential for
isolated supercells ahead of any multi-cellular line(s) that
develop. A 25-35 kt low level jet passes to the S/SE Tuesday
afternoon, so given this and the aforementioned shear and CAPE,
along with wet-bulb zero heights around 8,000 feet, have the
potential for strong to possibly isolated severe storms on Tuesday.
For lows Monday night, a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures was used, with values forecast to be near to
slightly above normal. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of mixing
down from 875 to 850 hPa per Bufkit soundings, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and all available MOS guidance was used. Highs should
be around 5 degrees above normal.
The main trough axis of the aforementioned northern stream trough
crosses on Tuesday night. The low levels should have dried
sufficiently to keep the roughly NW 1/2 of the CWA dry. However,
do have slight chance to chance pops (S Fork of Long Island)
Tuesday evening over the SE 1/2 of the CWA as the low levels are
slower to dry out there.
Mean troughing remains over the NE U.S. Wednesday through
Thursday, however, with low levels forecast to be relatively dry,
have gone with a dry forecast during this time frame.
The models then differ on how an initial 700-500 hPa shortwave,
then northern stream trough interact with a quasi-stationary front
draped from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday night-Friday
night. While all models develop a coastal low that passes to the
S/SE, they differ on whether it will be close enough to produce
any precipitation over the region. For now, have increased cloud
cover, and gone with mainly slight chance pops Thursday night-
Friday night, except chance pops over far southeastern zones
Friday and Friday night.
NW flow aloft is currently forecast for Saturday, and with no
discernible shortwave of note embedded in it, have gone with a
dry forecast at this time.
Temperatures Tuesday night-Saturday were based on the Superblend
and should be near to slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected. A southerly wind of near 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight. JFK winds will
be closer to 15 kt this afternoon with a few occasional gusts up
to 20 kt. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few kts higher
than Saturday afternoon winds with some gusts up to near 20 kt
developing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals for afternoon both days.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region, strongest
Monday night-Tuesday night, will keep winds to 15 kt or less
Monday night-Thursday. Southerly swells could bring seas to around
5 ft over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Tuesday
through Wednesday, otherwise sub-small craft seas/waves are
expected Monday night-Thursday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is from late Monday
night into Tuesday night. At this time expect generally less than
1/4 of an inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible.
At this time, outside of possible ponding of water on roadways in
areas experiencing strong convection on Tuesday, no hydrologic
impact is expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Maloit
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...BC/Maloit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 pm EDT...High pressure over NY and New England late
this afternoon and early this evening will move offshore tonight.
The diurnal cumulus over the mountains will quickly dissipate
early this evening. A few thin cirrus will be around. The winds
will be light to calm with near ideal radiational cooling.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be over rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in WNW 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night-Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
Monday. A cold front will cross the region late Monday night with
the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 40 percent Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Overnight values will increase to 70 to 100
percent.
Winds will generally be Southwest during the day around 10 mph
into Monday...becoming light overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s.Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Can
not rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More
humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for
patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged
around the 40s.Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Can
not rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting
upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for
any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior,
but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall.
Sunday Night...
Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during
the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still
thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S
will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over
the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern
towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this
long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New
England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week.
Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the
development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However,
in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having
much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell
on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the
warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the
80s.
Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front
through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the
GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of
the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this
point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability,
so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this
time.
Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a
low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing
over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS
ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the
northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more
of an indication that there`s some support for the operational
model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the
forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a
cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just
something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at
times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR
patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday
with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get
a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas
gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then
crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will
increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell
MARINE...RLG/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 pm EDT...High pressure over NY and New England late
this afternoon and early this evening will move offshore tonight.
The diurnal cumulus over the mountains will quickly dissipate
early this evening. A few thin cirrus will be around. The winds
will be light to calm with near ideal radiational cooling.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 pm EDT...High pressure over NY and New England late
this afternoon and early this evening will move offshore tonight.
The diurnal cumulus over the mountains will quickly dissipate
early this evening. A few thin cirrus will be around. The winds
will be light to calm with near ideal radiational cooling.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower
elevations. Some the mountains and sheltered valleys will fall
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tomorrow...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more
humid...as high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the
anticylone nudges in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast.
H850 temps according to the EC/GFS will be in the +15C to +18C
range with mixing to H800 or so. The H850 temps are 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal. High temps will get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and upper 70s to
mid 80s over the hills and mountains. Sunny to Mostly sunny
conditions are anticipated a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus over
eastern NY and western New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
There is a low risk of rip currents this afternoon at the
Atlantic ocean beaches. As a southerly coastal jet develops late
this afternoon into evening, the rip current risk would
correspondingly increase to moderate for the NYC and Nassau County
ocean beaches. Confidence in wind speed getting that strong is not
high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected. A southerly wind of near 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight. JFK winds will
be closer to 15 kt this afternoon with a few occasional gusts up
to 20 kt. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few kts higher
than Saturday afternoon winds with some gusts up to near 20 kt
developing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals for afternoon both days.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
There is a low risk of rip currents this afternoon at the
Atlantic ocean beaches. As a southerly coastal jet develops late
this afternoon into evening, the rip current risk would
correspondingly increase to moderate for the NYC and Nassau County
ocean beaches. Confidence in wind speed getting that strong is not
high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure prevails across the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected. A southerly wind of near 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight. JFK winds will
be closer to 15 kt this afternoon with a few occasional gusts up
to 20 kt. Winds become SE-S Sunday but generally a few kts higher
than Saturday afternoon winds with some gusts up to near 20 kt
developing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt at south coast
terminals for afternoon both days.
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. SW winds 10-15
kt gusting to near 20 kt in the afternoon.
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in lingering -SHRA. Some
-TSRA possible in the evening.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
into this evening...and will drift offshore overnight into
tomorrow.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/SUN for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A few-sct cumulus neat the higher terrain and
few-sct cirrus will be over parts of the fcst area this afternoon
and tonight. Thin cirrus will persist through the morning hours.
The winds will be light to calm this afternoon into tonight. A
light southeast breeze of 3-6 kts will persist at ALY overnight
due to the funneling up the Hudson River Valley. Light and
variable direction will continue late tomorrow morning.
A dry boundary layer with large T/TD spreads will preclude any
fog or mist formation tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During this period a 500 hpa trof sets up over the NE USA...with
an initial surge of CAA...and passing short wvs which will
enhance aftn clouds...and sct -shra mainly n and over elevated
trrn. But at sfc high pressure will be ovr rgn...and by thu trof
axis is e of fca. And while rgn remains in wnw 500 hpa
flow...upstream air is actually warmer by periods end. Generally
a fair dry period other than some aftn -shra Wed. Temps will
start slightly blo normal...and trend twrd normals by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected for the next week. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night...but after
recent dryness this rainfall will be welcome.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Snyder/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1253 pm EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with fair and dry weather this afternoon.
Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of the last few
days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding has a well
mixed low to mid level layer...and mixing to H750-800 should allow
highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to
around 80F over the hills and mountains. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone should yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions
most of the day with a few-sct cumulus over the forecast area. Sfc
dewpts will continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
Sunday...the air mass becomes hotter and slightly more humid...as
high pressure moves offshore...and an extension of the anticylone nudges
in from the mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. High temps will
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations...and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1225 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in from
southeast Canada and northern New England with fair and dry
weather today. Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of
the last few days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding
has a low-level radiative inversion which continues to erode
quickly. Mixing to H750-800 should allow highs in the lower to
mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills
and mountains. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone should
yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions most of the day with a few-
sct cumulus over the mountains...and south of the Capital Region
as a few disturbance moves through this morning.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1225 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will pump very warm and
increasingly humid air into the region through into Monday.
Monday night and early Tuesday a cold front will push through the
region with showers and thunderstorms. More seasonal fair weather
will follow midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in from
southeast Canada and northern New England with fair and dry
weather today. Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of
the last few days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding
has a low-level radiative inversion which continues to erode
quickly. Mixing to H750-800 should allow highs in the lower to
mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills
and mountains. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone should
yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions most of the day with a few-
sct cumulus over the mountains...and south of the Capital Region
as a few disturbance moves through this morning.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500hpa ridge over region...and large surface high along the
Atlantic seaboard Sunday night...gradually break down and shift
south. Heat and humidity remain over the region into Monday
evening. The westerlies at 500hpa push into the northern tier of
states Monday night...and push a cold front across the region late
Monday night. All model suite is in agreement here except the NAM
which is 6-9 hours slower with the fropa..and clearing Tuesday
morning. Max temps Monday will be nr 90F...lows Tues mrng only
60s.
With CFP late Mon night...conditions are not optimal for
convective development and models are not producing much in the
way of cape with this system. Hwvr statistical guid showing chc
tstm pops...so will go with chc shra/tstms. Cdfnt quickly exits
region Tuesday morning with cooler drier air filtering in as Td
falls from 60s into the 40s. 8-10 mb pressure gradient across NYS
will result in breezy conditions Tues. Hwvr temps will still make
the upper 70s and low 80s many areas. Fair conditions/CAA will
allow lows to fall to the 50s Tues nt with clear fair conds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid
for Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest. Highs on
Wednesday in the 70s. There still may be a few more rain showers
around on Wednesday, esp for northern areas, thanks to the
cyclonic flow around the passing upper level trough. Any
additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a mostly sunny
day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above seasonable
levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper 70s/lower
80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds will give way to southerly sea breezes developing
into the early afternoon. However, BDR and JFK already have sea
breezes developing under 10 kt. Sea breeze timing could be an hour
off from forecast for the rest of the terminals. Winds may become
NE around 5 kt at LGA into early afternoon before sea breeze
passage. Wind speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or
less. JFK will be a few kts above the other terminals with
southerly winds near 12 kt mid to late this afternoon.
Winds become light and variable again tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes today.
Northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a mostly sunny
day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above seasonable
levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper 70s/lower
80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds will give way to southerly sea breezes developing
into the early afternoon. However, BDR and JFK already have sea
breezes developing under 10 kt. Sea breeze timing could be an hour
off from forecast for the rest of the terminals. Winds may become
NE around 5 kt at LGA into early afternoon before sea breeze
passage. Wind speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or
less. JFK will be a few kts above the other terminals with
southerly winds near 12 kt mid to late this afternoon.
Winds become light and variable again tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in from
southeast Canada and northern New England with fair and dry
weather today. Comfortable humidity levels are expected for one of
the last few days of astronomical spring. The 12Z KALB sounding
has a low-level radiative inversion which continues to erode
quickly. Mixing to H750-800 should allow highs in the lower to
mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills
and mountains. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone should
yield sunny or mostly sunny conditions most of the day with a few-
sct cumulus over the mountains...and south of the Capital Region
as a few disturbance moves through this morning.
Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international guidance
suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending from
James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Tonight, lows mainly into the
50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of the year are
generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1002 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Trough and attendant vortmax energy discerned from latest water
vapor satellite that brought us the bout of wet weather overnight
slipping east out to sea behind which heights are rising with the
influx of warmer air immediately aloft brought on by an increasing
westerly component of wind.
High pressure dominates allowing for clear conditions along with
light winds. Already seeing sea-breezes along the coastlines,
quite brisk in spots with 10 to 15 mph winds. Trends prevailing,
will see highs into the upper-80s across the interior, namely the
low-lying areas of the CT and Merrimack River Valleys, while
cooler along the shores with onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry conditions.
Light winds will mean good radiational cooling tonight, so favored
to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2 meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short-Term /Through Sunday/...High confidence.
14z update...no major changes to the forecast.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today along the coasts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
10 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1002 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Trough and attendant vortmax energy discerned from latest water
vapor satellite that brought us the bout of wet weather overnight
slipping east out to sea behind which heights are rising with the
influx of warmer air immediately aloft brought on by an increasing
westerly component of wind.
High pressure dominates allowing for clear conditions along with
light winds. Already seeing sea-breezes along the coastlines,
quite brisk in spots with 10 to 15 mph winds. Trends prevailing,
will see highs into the upper-80s across the interior, namely the
low-lying areas of the CT and Merrimack River Valleys, while
cooler along the shores with onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry conditions.
Light winds will mean good radiational cooling tonight, so favored
to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2 meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short-Term /Through Sunday/...High confidence.
14z update...no major changes to the forecast.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today along the coasts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
10 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds this morning with southerly sea breezes developing
late morning into the early afternoon. Sea breeze timing could be
an hour off from forecast. Winds may become NE around 5 kt at LGA
this morning/early afternoon before sea breeze passage. Wind
speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light winds this morning with southerly sea breezes developing
late morning into the early afternoon. Sea breeze timing could be
an hour off from forecast. Winds may become NE around 5 kt at LGA
this morning/early afternoon before sea breeze passage. Wind
speeds this afternoon generally around 10 kt or less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR. Gusts to 20 kt possible at south coast
terminals.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
722 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM Update...
Since clearing behind the brief convective activity last night,
temps have actually dropped into the low 50s in many places
outside of the heat-islands. However, SKC conditions should allow
temps to rebound quite nicely. Raised inland temps a bit as this
is likely a scenario where we over-achieve a bit. Near shore
locations start warming, but then become restricted by sea breezes
mid day.
Previous discussion...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
722 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM Update...
Since clearing behind the brief convective activity last night,
temps have actually dropped into the low 50s in many places
outside of the heat-islands. However, SKC conditions should allow
temps to rebound quite nicely. Raised inland temps a bit as this
is likely a scenario where we over-achieve a bit. Near shore
locations start warming, but then become restricted by sea breezes
mid day.
Previous discussion...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR. Low risk for localized ground fog tonight, but likely only at
typically prone airports. Otherwise, light winds. Sea breezes
begin 14-16Z today.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Mainly virga this morning with residual
showers across our western New England counties into the Taconics.
H2O vapor loop reveals a due northerly flow across New England
with a weak/subtle wave passing across the region at the time of
this writing. In its wake should be increasing subsidence and
rising heights as surface and upper level ridges build and move
across the CWFA today into the evening hours. Later tonight, NCEP
model suite and international guidance suggest a piece of the
stretched out vorticity extending from James/Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes approaches overnight. Like the case from
this morning, there could be a shower but unlike this morning, the
heights aloft are forecast to be higher. So for now, we will keep
the forecast dry under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
Under plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should easily climb
into the 80s for majority of the region as H850 temperatures are
in the middle teens with dewpoints at or below 50F which should
result in relative comfortable June conditions. Tonight, lows
mainly into the 50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of
the year are generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight
lows mainly into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Mainly virga this morning with residual
showers across our western New England counties into the Taconics.
H2O vapor loop reveals a due northerly flow across New England
with a weak/subtle wave passing across the region at the time of
this writing. In its wake should be increasing subsidence and
rising heights as surface and upper level ridges build and move
across the CWFA today into the evening hours. Later tonight, NCEP
model suite and international guidance suggest a piece of the
stretched out vorticity extending from James/Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes approaches overnight. Like the case from
this morning, there could be a shower but unlike this morning, the
heights aloft are forecast to be higher. So for now, we will keep
the forecast dry under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
Under plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should easily climb
into the 80s for majority of the region as H850 temperatures are
in the middle teens with dewpoints at or below 50F which should
result in relative comfortable June conditions. Tonight, lows
mainly into the 50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of
the year are generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight
lows mainly into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some moisture rotating around an upper level trough off the coast of
Atlantic Canada has allowed for some patches of mid level clouds
near KPOU and KPSF this morning. These clouds will continue to move
away from the region, and all sites look to have sunny skies by the
mid morning hours.
During the day today and into tonight, flying conditions will remain
vfr with mainly clear skies. There could be few-sct diurnal cu over
the high terrain by this afternoon and some passing cirrus by this
evening into tonight. Otherwise, it will remain clear with flying
conditions staying vfr.
Winds should be light today, generally 5 kts or less, and most sites
look to have completely calm winds for tonight. The short duration
of the night and relatively low dewpoints should help prevent any
radiational fog from forming tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight
Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light SW-W winds early this morning at city terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Southerly sea breezes will develop late
morning into the early afternoon. Observed timing could be off by
an hour compared to forecast. Speeds generally around 10 kt or
less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
If 15-20 kt southerly coastal jet develops late this afternoon into
evening, the rip current risk would correspondingly increase to
moderate for the NYC and Nassau County ocean beaches. Confidence
in wind speed getting that strong is not high, but dayshift will
monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light SW-W winds early this morning at city terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Southerly sea breezes will develop late
morning into the early afternoon. Observed timing could be off by
an hour compared to forecast. Speeds generally around 10 kt or
less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
351 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview and model preferences...
Ridging connected to central CONUS heat and humidity will peak
Mon-Tue, allowing a taste of that heat and humidity before a cold
frontal arrival late Tue. Deterministic models continue to follow
their ensemble counterparts, keeping coastal low pres offshore for
minimal impact on Srn New England. Meanwhile, Hudson Bay vortex
will begin slow phasing process with the cutoff attendant to the
low pres offshore, this will limit the time connected to the warm-
humid airmass and a allow for a transition back to more seasonable
levels. Deterministic guidance blend should still be a good
starting point for this forecast.
Details...
Sun night into Mon...
Warmest period expected thanks to warm advection beginning and
H85 temps increasing to near +18C. This suggests highs reaching
the mid-upper 80s with even a few 90s possible. Bulk of the dwpts
in the 60s will be slow to arrive, so thankfully the peak RH
values will hold until the cooler temps arrive for Tue.
Tue and Tue night...
With low pres offshore, warm advection and increasing dwpts,
atmosphere looks primed for convective activity to be ignited
along cold front and pre frontal trof. Ensemble probabilities
already suggest reasonably high probs of +1000j/kg sfc CAPE by
afternoon along with SLIs and showalter indices below 0. Combine
this with moderate shear (about 35 kt 0-3 km) and could see a few
strong-severe thunderstorms develop late day and evening. Timing
of cold front will be critical, but this will be a period to watch
as we approach. Right now, based on normalized CAPE/downdraft CAPE
progged, winds/heavy rains look to be the primary risks.
Otherwise, a bit cooler than Mon due to increased cloud cover and
onshore flow from the S. Expect mainly upper 70s to low 80s.
Humidity will be a bigger factor thanks to dwpts in the mid 60s.
Wed and Thu...
Unsettled WX expected thanks to cyclonic flow under deepening
trof and cooling upper lvl temps. In fact, H5 temps drop to nearly
-18C by late Thu. With the lower lvl temps slower to respond,
highs each day could still make it into the upper 70s and low 80s
until the core of the cooler air reaches near the sfc. The
unsettled pattern may allow for shra development in NW flow during
peak diurnal heating.
Fri into Sat...
Although there is generally good agreement (even between
ensembles) that trof will be slow to shift east, after seasonable
wx Fri next weekend remains in flux, mainly due to blocking high
pres south of Greenland and connected to the Bermuda high.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR this period along with dry weather. Low risk of brief MVFR in
patchy late night/early morning fog. Light winds with afternoon
seabreezes for coastal terminals. Winds become light southerly on
Sunday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook...Sun night through Wednesday...
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief
periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...High confidence. High pres builds
over, then passes east of the waters. Quiet boating water is
expected.
Tue int Wed...Moderate confidence.
Small craft advisories may be needed at times, due to 25 kt gusts
out of the S near shore on Tue, then out of the W-NW on Wed. This
will also help build seas to 5-6 ft mainly on the ocean waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
333 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the region this weekend. This will
result with increasing mild temperatures and humidity. The humidity
increases into early next week in advance of a cold front with
muggy conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT...Recent radar scans reveal a diminishing trend
from the convection earlier this morning with residual showers
across our western New England counties. H2O vapor loop reveals a
due northerly flow across New England with a weak/subtle wave
passing across the region at the time of this writing. In its wake
should be increasing subsidence and rising heights as surface and
upper level ridges build and move across the CWFA today into the
evening hours. Later tonight, NCEP model suite and international
guidance suggest a piece of the stretched out vorticity extending
from James/Hudson Bay through the western Great Lakes approaches
overnight. Like the case from this morning, there could be a
shower but unlike this morning, the heights aloft are forecast to
be higher. So for now, we will keep the forecast dry under a
partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.
Under plenty of sunshine today, temperatures should easily climb
into the 80s for majority of the region as H850 temperatures are
in the middle teens with dewpoints at or below 50F which should
result in relative comfortable June conditions. Tonight, lows
mainly into the 50s to around 60F. Normal values for this time of
the year are generally 75-80F for afternoon highs and overnight
lows mainly into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft maximizes during the short term as the surface
reflection slides southeast of the region. This will result in
even warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints. H850 temperatures moderate through the mid-
teens to the upper teens and near 20C on Monday. This will bring
another round of 90F+ for valley locations with otherwise 80s.
Overnight lows moderate through the 50s to some lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be making its way towards the region for the start
of the extended period. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a warm and
muggy air mass will be in place across the region with temps only
falling into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night. Dewpoints will
stay in the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will certainly feel a little
on the humid side.
Although still far from certain, it appears that the frontal
boundary will be crossing at some point on Tuesday morning. Some
showers/t-storms could begin as early as Monday night, but the best
chance looks Tuesday morning just along and ahead of the boundary.
The timing of the boundary will ultimately help determine just how
much instability is present for t-storms to have as fuel. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are 35-50 knots, so there is the potential for
some storms to obtain gusty winds if enough instability is present,
esp for areas south and east of Albany. Temps still look to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the area on Tuesday.
Behind this front, it will start to become cooler and less humid for
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wind switches to the northwest.
Lows will be in the 50s and highs on Wednesday in the 70s. There
still may be a few more rain showers around on Wednesday, esp for
northern areas, thanks to the cyclonic flow around the passing upper
level trough. Any additional showers look light.
Dry weather looks to return for the late week period (Thursday into
Friday) as the upper level shortwave trough moves away. However, it
will remain rather cool, so temps will continue to be below normal.
Highs will continue to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave rotating through the northern flow around an upper
level trough near Nova Scotia has allowed for some showers over
the North Country this evening. Although these showers are
weakening, the leftover clouds will pass over our area through the
remainder of the overnight hours from north to south. A few hour
period of sct- bkn cigs around 9-12 kft will occur early this
morning, but flying conditions will remain vfr with mainly light
or calm winds. Cannot totally rule out a brief showers/sprinkle
near KGFL over the next hour or two, but it should stay dry
everywhere else. Even if a shower does occur, flying conditions
should generally remain vfr.
During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, flying
conditions will remain vfr with mainly clear skies. There could
be few-sct diurnal cu over the high terrain during the day on
Saturday and some passing cirrus by evening, otherwise flying
conditions will remain vfr. Winds will should be light, generally
5 kts or less, and most sites look to have completely calm winds
for Sat night. The short night and relatively low dewpoints should
help prevent any radiational fog from forming on Sat night.
Outlook...
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into early
next week before a cold front approaches Monday night into Tuesday
with the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent at night.
Wind speeds will generally be less than 10 MPH through the weekend
with variable directions through today, gradually becoming south-
southwest through Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall arrives Monday
night into Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control this weekend...and likely into
Monday. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday slowly tracks
northeast into Tuesday, followed by a cold front moving through late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The front stalls east of the area as high
pressure builds in Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Canadian maritimes shortwave energy slides south of the region
through this afternoon...with high pressure sinking just south and
east of the region.
An isolated shower possible to drift south across western ct/li
early this morning as shortwave approaches.
Otherwise...northerly flow aloft and subsidence will allow for a
mostly sunny day...with temperatures moderating to slightly above
seasonable levels with rising heights and waa. Highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s south coastal areas with afternoon sea breeze
development...lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging continues to build into the region tonight into
Sunday...with high pressure remaining s and e of the region.
Good radiational cooling conds tonight across far outlying areas
resulting in lows into the upper 40s/lower 50s. 60s in the nyc/nj
metro...but relatively comfortable mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog
development possible in the Hudson River Valley.
Sunny and dry conditions Sunday...with deep mixing and waa
resulting in a continued moderation of temps. Temps should max out
in the lower 80s for south coastal seas...with mid to upper 80s
most elsewhere...before a well developed seabreeze works inland.
Areas well N and W of NYC metro could hit lower 90s with seabreeze
likely not making it there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large ridge extending over a good portion of the CONUS early in
the period transitions to falling heights across the northeastern
CONUS by mid week as longwave northern stream trough amplifies
southward through late week.
Models in good agreement that a cutoff upper low off the southeast
coast Sunday will drift northward and shear into the approaching
northern stream trough early next week. Majority of
operational/ensemble solutions keep associated surface low well south
and east of the region Monday...before getting absorbed into a
passing cold front on Tue/Tue night. This should allow for mostly
sunny and very warm conditions on Monday.
The cold front approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday.
This front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, but may not move too far offshore as the trough
amplifies, with it`s axis remaining to the west. Steering flow
becomes nearly parallel to the front, slowing it`s movement. As
for sensible weather, best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday night with the front/upper
shortwave.
Thereafter...cannot rule out pop up diurnally driven showers
Wednesday and Thursday under deep troughing.
Temperatures will be several degrees above seasonable Mon/Tue ahead
of cold front. Then as heights fall with the changing pattern,
temperatures will fall back closer to normal for the mid to late
week period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight.
Light SW-W winds early this morning at city terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Southerly sea breezes will develop late
morning into the early afternoon. Observed timing could be off by
an hour compared to forecast. Speeds generally around 10 kt or
less.
Winds become light and variable tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
.Wednesday...VFR. Slight chance of -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will remain over the region through
Monday, with relatively tranquil conditions continuing over the
waters.
Southerly winds will increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Seas
will build in response...with potential for sca ocean seas late
Tue/Tue night. The front will slow down just east of the waters
Wednesday...with offshore flow and subsiding seas likely for mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is Tuesday into
Tuesday night. No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
306 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier
weather will follow mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure remains in control today. Another mostly sunny and
dry day today. Light winds will mean seabreezes along the coasts.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves offshore through Sunday. However, it
should remain close enough to our region to maintain dry
conditions. Light winds will mean good radiational cooling
tonight, so favored to lower MOS guidance compared to the model 2
meter temperatures.
Sustained south winds develop Sunday as a high pressure moves
farther offshore. Thus anticipate slightly higher max
temperatures, except along the south coast. There should be more
mid and high level clouds, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Mild to warm days & cool nights through Monday
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday
Overview...Quite the quiet weather period for southern New England
into next week. While there remains some uncertainty in the models
with regards to the low pressure system developing south of the area
over the ocean, the models are more consistent in keeping this
system weaker and farther south of New England. The ECMWF and it`s
ensemble mean are the strongest/farthest to the north, while the GFS
and it`s ensemble mean are the weakest/farthest to the south so
aiming for a blend of solutions that will keep it far enough south
of New England to limit any impact on our weather, at least over
land. High pressure dominates our forecast Monday. The one weather-
maker for us will be a frontal system that moves through late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely produce at least some
light precip, and depending on the timing of the front with peak
heating, etc could result in showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures...High confidence.
Mild to even hot temperatures continue Monday, with the first day
of summer the warmest day of the forecast with highs in the mid
80s to even 90 possible. Tuesday will be a tad cooler but with
higher humidity, then more seasonable weather returns mid-week
onwards.
Precipitation...High confidence, except Tuesday-Wednesday. Moderate
confidence for that period.
Expect a fairly dry forecast for much of the period. Only real
chance for any precipitation is with the cold frontal passage on
Tuesday. There`s some indication in the ECMWF that a secondary front
will bring a few more showers on Wednesday, but confidence is not
high.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
VFR this period along with dry weather. Low risk of brief MVFR in
patchy late night/early morning fog. Light winds with afternoon
seabreezes for coastal terminals. Winds become light southerly on
Sunday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Monday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and variable
winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions and dry
weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
night may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.
Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. Dry weather and good visibility, too.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...High Confidence.
Sunday night and Monday...High confidence. Mainly quiet boating
weather is expected. Winds and seas gradually increase Monday but
should remain below SCA criteria.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RLG
NEAR TERM...Belk/RLG
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Belk/RLG
MARINE...Belk/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will be fair through the weekend with temperatures
gradually warming to above normal as high pressure dominates.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...Radar trends continue to increase in coverage
across portions of the Dacks into the Lake George Saratoga Region
and southern VT. This was along and ahead of a weak surface trough
and upper wave seen in the H2O vapor imagery cross the St
Lawrence Valley. HRRR wants to expand these showers into the
Capital Region overnight but may mainly be a terrain based
showers. For now, we will expand the PoPs a bit westward and
southward and continue to watch trends as these showers should
dissipate over the next few hours.
Ridging should finally build in at the surface and aloft towards
morning and will aid in subsidence late tonight...along with light
to calm winds. May see some patchy fog where rain falls overnight. Lows
will range from the mid to upper 40s in the higher terrain with
lower to mid 50s in the valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging builds into the region from the west while an upper
low spins around off the Carolinas. As the low level ridging
slowly settles south and east of our region by later Sunday and
Monday...temperatures will warm each day through Monday and many
areas should get around 90 by Monday. There may be some onshore
low level flow in southern areas...with some weak influence from
the far northern periphery of the flow around the upper low off
the Carolinas but still warming each day in southern areas.
Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s...near 80 northern areas.
Highs Sunday in the 80s to near 90...and around 90 to lower 90s
Monday...but mid 80s in higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out Monday night with our region in a warm sector
ahead of a cold front positioned near the Great Lakes and St.
Lawrence Valley, so it will be a mild and somewhat muggy night.
Models trending slightly faster with timing of the cold front, so
will mention chance pops for some showers and thunderstorms for
areas north and west of the Capital District late Monday night as
the front approaches.
Otherwise, the cold front should push southeastward through the
region on Tuesday, bringing the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms. There appears to be a conditional threat for some
severe storms on Tuesday. Deep layer shear forecast to be rather
impressive at 40-50 kt, but the magnitude of instability is in
question at this time and will be highly dependent on timing of the
front and degree of cloud cover. Should sufficient instability
develop, strong to severe storms will be possible with the potential
for gusty winds.
Lingering chances for some showers and storms Tuesday evening,
mainly for areas south and east of Albany as the cold front
continues to move through. Otherwise mainly dry conditions are
expected overnight. There will be a noticeable drop in humidity
levels by Wednesday in wake of the cold front, with cooler
temperatures as well. A few showers cannot be ruled out due to a
cyclonic flow in place within a broad upper level trough over the
region. This trough should exit into far northern New England and
the Canadian maritimes by Thursday, as surface high pressure builds
in to our area from the west.
High pressure then looks to build eastward and take residence across
the northeast U.S. into Friday with slightly below normal
temperatures and comfortably low humidity levels.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave rotating through the northern flow around an upper
level trough near Nova Scotia has allowed for some showers over
the North Country this evening. Although these showers are
weakening, the leftover clouds will pass over our area through the
remainder of the overnight hours from north to south. A few hour
period of sct-bkn cigs around 9-12 kft will occur early this
morning, but flying conditions will remain vfr with mainly light
or calm winds. Cannot totally rule out a brief showers/sprinkle
near KGFL over the next hour or two, but it should stay dry
everywhere else. Even if a shower does occur, flying conditions
should generally remain vfr.
During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, flying
conditions will remain vfr with mainly clear skies. There could
be few-sct diurnal cu over the high terrain during the day on
Saturday and some passing cirrus by evening, otherwise flying
conditions will remain vfr. Winds will should be light, generally
5 kts or less, and most sites look to have completely calm winds
for Sat night. The short night and relatively low dewpoints should
help prevent any radiational fog from forming on Sat night.
Outlook...
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather will be fair through the weekend with temperatures
gradually warming to above normal as high pressure dominates.
Relative humidities will drop to 30 to 50 percent Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, with 70 to 100 percent tonight.
Winds through the period will be north to northeast at 15 mph or
less through Saturday night...then trending to southwest at 15 mph
or less Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected through the weekend with fair
weather as high pressure dominates.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
407 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...
The major weather activity stayed well to the north of the BYZ CWA during the
overnight hours. However, some of the convection left a few
surface boundaries behind that moved southward across the central
zones. With the air mass being so dry, though, no shower activity
was triggered because of it.
The main story for Sunday will be the potential impacts for fire
conditions across the region. Temperatures will be cooler with
limited moisture due to a cold front that made its way across SE
Montana during the overnight hours.
Low pressure at the surface has slowly moved into SW North
Dakota, shifting winds to the west northwest. The strongest
surface winds will remain well to the north, but it is not out of
the question to see some gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range across
the CWA this afternoon and evening. Winds will be the strongest,
with gusts to near 30 mph, over the eastern zones.
Fire weather concerns will be prevalent with the windy and dry
conditions. As mentioned in previous AFDs, many small fires popped
up in Rosebud and Powder River counties in the past 24 hours.
Frequent overnight wind shifts due to gust fronts and synoptic
scale frontal zones may have played havoc with the fire growth
both in intensity and areal coverage. This will need to be watched
closely today, with potential spot forecasts.
By Monday, temperatures will start to rebound, maxing out in the
low to mid 80s. Conditions will remain dry with little or no
precipitation through Monday. Singer
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Dry and warm conditions expected through the majority of the
extended. Upper-level pattern shows a highly amplified ridge
extending from the SW CONUS northward into Canada. This position
is a bit ahead of the previous forecast, expecting the warmest
day now on Tuesday with mid 90s or higher possible in the Plains.
Shortwave energy pushes north of our area on Tuesday afternoon.
This will develop a surface low over southeast MT which will push
east on Wednesday. Winds will switch to the northwest behind the
front but temperatures will still reach into the upper 80s during
the afternoon. Flow switches back to southwest by the end of the
week as another shortwave pushes into northern MT. This will bring
our next significant chance of precip, which for now looks like
Fri aftn/evening with pockets of convection firing off the
mountains and moving over the central portions of MT and WY.
Another bit of energy moves in from the southwest between Sat and
Sun. GFS depicts this further south and thus a bigger rain/tstorm
maker for our area while the Euro keeps this north of the area
much like the previous two waves. For now kept PoPs low in that
time frame until models come into better agreement. Walsh
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds mainly west/northwest behind the frontal passage for MLS
and SHR while winds in BIL will be more north/northeast this
morning. High pressure slides in from the west increasing the
winds through Livingston after 14Z expecting gusts could reach
above 30 kts. Gusty northwest winds will be possible after 21Z at
BIL and MLS with good afternoon mixing. Walsh
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 051/084 056/092 056/087 056/091 060/090 058/085
0/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
LVM 077 044/083 049/089 048/087 049/088 052/087 050/081
0/N 00/U 10/U 11/U 11/B 13/T 32/T
HDN 083 049/086 054/094 056/088 056/092 058/092 056/086
0/N 00/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 080 052/083 059/091 059/086 057/090 061/090 060/085
0/N 00/U 01/U 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 082 050/086 058/095 059/087 056/092 062/093 060/088
0/N 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 078 048/081 053/089 057/082 052/087 057/089 058/084
0/N 00/U 11/U 31/B 11/U 12/T 33/T
SHR 081 047/085 054/093 053/087 052/090 056/091 056/086
0/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
334 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...An upper level jet is exiting Central MT
this morning, but light showers are following it in its wake. Most
of the showers are falling east of a line from Wise River to Loma.
These showers should diminish by mid morning. It should then
become mostly sunny in most areas by afternoon. An upper level
disturbance will slide across Southern Canada this afternoon
though, and there is a very small chance for a passing shower near
the US/Canadian border around mid afternoon. Otherwise, afternoon
temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday. Gusty west
winds will continue to affect much of North Central MT today, but
wind speeds should remain below warning criteria. On Monday, an
upper level ridge builds over the region for mostly dry and warm
temperatures over the region. On Tuesday, the models prog an upper
level disturbance to move southeastward through North Central MT
during the afternoon areas. There will be a small chance for a
passing thunderstorm, mainly north of a Great Falls to Lewistown
line. Afternoon temperatures will continue the warming trend on
Tuesday, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Brusda
Tuesday Night through Sunday...Latest model runs have shifted back
to generally drier forecast for much of this period (except for GFS
next Sat/Sun). Period begins with a minor shortwave trof tracking
along the US/Can border that will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the Hiline counties before heading into
southern Saskatchewan late Tues night. High pressure ridging
rebuilds over the Northern Rockies as the shortwave exits, with dry
conditions and warming temps on the way for Wed (highs in the upper
70s to low 80s) and Thur (mid 80s). On Fri, another weak trof will
make its way across southwest Canada, with the ECMWF moving this
system eastward notably quicker than the GFS. Neither model depicts
much precip during the trof`s passage along the Hiline, so the main
effect looks to be just cooler temps (mid-upper 70s) on Sat. At this
point, our forecast follows the ECMWF solution for its handling of a
third Pacific shortwave on Sat/Sun. The EC takes this system
through WA and into BC/ALB over the weekend with the only weather
being some showers over Glacier NP Sun aftn. Meanwhile the GFS
brings the shortwave straight east to ID and then into central MT on
Sun, with a broad area of moderate rainfall (0.5 to 1.0 inch)
covering all but the northwest corner of our forecast area. At this
time, it`s hard to see where the GFS is finding sufficient moisture
for such high rainfall totals, so have set that solution aside for
now to favor the more consistent ECMWF.
Waranauskas
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
A few light showers will move northeastward through the region
through 12z or Sunday before gradually diminishing. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. Surface winds will be strong at times
Sunday morning through late afternoon...before gradually diminishing
Sunday evening. Drier air moves in aloft Sunday evening...as skies
begin to clear out. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 70 42 79 51 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 66 41 75 48 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 71 45 83 54 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 73 42 85 50 / 20 0 0 0
WEY 65 38 76 44 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 73 43 85 50 / 20 0 0 0
HVR 71 45 79 52 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 69 44 78 51 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
332 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2016
...Warm-up expected today but chilly morning Monday...
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure continues to build into the region today with plenty
of sunshine. It will be a pleasant day across the Northern Rockies
as temperatures will max out into the 60s and 70s, generally 3 to
5 degrees below normal for this time of year.
For tonight with high pressure and clear skies anticipated, temperatures
will be able to cool down into the 30s and 40s. This could impact
those who have sensitive plants and mitigation may be needed.
The warming trend continues on Monday as highs will generally be
10 degrees warmer than they were on Sunday. Highs will be in the
80s for most valley locations while the Riggins area in Idaho
could crack 90.
For Tuesday, weather models have trended more to allow a shortwave
trough to influence conditions. The forecast temperatures have
been cooled by several degrees. Also this system will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms from Monday night through
Tuesday afternoon mainly from Clearwater County Idaho to northwest
Montana. With marginal instability the biggest impact by the
thunderstorms would be lightning. Also expect breezy conditions
for much of the day which would impact those recreating on area
lakes.
A relatively hot, dry ridge returns Wednesday and is expected to
remain the dominate weather pattern through the end of the week.
Currently, Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest days of
the week where some valleys could approach upper 80s. Models are
in disagreement on timing and strength of next disturbances, but a
few showers and thunderstorms may return by the end of the
week/next weekend with slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...As a frontal system propagates eastward this
morning, a westerly pressure gradient will slowly start to weaken
over the area throughout the day. In the meantime, turbulence may
be encountered over the Continental Divide through at least mid-
day due to strong west winds aloft, which can be detected by
mountain wave clouds and strong subsidence east of the Divide in
current satellite imagery. Occasional breezy westerly winds will
occur through Sunday afternoon for the TAF sites. Otherwise,
anticipate drier and clearer weather today.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
315 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue...
Cold front and low pressure system has moved into North Dakota
overnight. Thunderstorms have also moved to the east early this
morning. A few showers will linger over the area early this
morning. an upper level trough will move across Southern
Saskatchewan today. Moisture associated with this system will stay
to the north of the forecast area so expect dry weather today.
Tight surface gradient will result in strong west winds over
Eastern Montana today. 850 mb winds will be around 40 knots so the
winds will likely stay below warning criteria. Could see winds
gusts as high as 50 mph today. Will keep Lake Wind Advisory in
effect for Fort Peck Lake until this evening.
Canadian high pressure moves into Montana tonight which will
diminish the winds. An upper ridge moves through Montana Monday
and Monday Night with dry weather continuing.
A shortwave trough moves through West and Central Montana on
Tuesday with a cold front. This approaching system could bring a
slight chance of thunderstorms to the northwest half of the
forecast in the afternoon. Forrester
.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...
The extended forecast gets underway with a departing shortwave
on Tuesday night and a building ridge on Wednesday and Thursday.
This will favor a warmer and drier weather regime.
A shortwave trough will flatten the ridge late this week and over
the weekend, though models differ on specific details with timing
and placement of any moisture. For now, will introduce slight
chance pops and lower temperatures with this feature and future
shifts can add more specificity to the weather grids and related
forecast elements with time. Maliawco
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected today. The main impact will be gusty west
winds that develop late morning and continue into the afternoon.
Winds of 20 to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts are a possibility,
especially during the afternoon. Maliawco
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
1146 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...
1130PM Update...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. However, an
isolated stronger storm may still be possible in a few locations
overnight, especially near the North Dakota Border. Nevertheless,
the threat for large hail and/or damaging winds is diminishing and
trends are expected to continue. Maliawco
930PM Update...
Severe Thunderstorm watch is now in effect until midnight and
includes Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. Phillips and
Petroleum were removed. Damaging winds and Large hail continue to
be the primary threat as storms push east over the next few hours.
Brief heavy rain is also a potential. Maliawco
Previous Discussion...
Strong shortwave lifting out of the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon with convection developing in central Montana. Severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of northern Montana
for late this afternoon and evening. May need to extend it late
tonight for the northeast zones as storms will be later arriving.
Convection developing along a cold front that will sweep across
the state overnight. Along with the severe thunderstorm potential,
strong post frontal winds are also possible with 700mb winds of
40-50 knots. These winds continue through Sunday afternoon so have
issued a lake wind advisory for late tonight through Sunday
evening.
Shortwave trof moves quickly through southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba on Sunday with upper ridge beginning to develop into the
northern Rockies. Canadian high pressure slides into the northern
plains Sunday night for diminished winds into Monday. Ebert
.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
General forecast thinking remains roughly the same, with a little
bit less confidence as models have now begun to introduce a few
rain showers and thunderstorms under the ridge of high pressure.
In fact, new model data today brings through a quick low pressure
trough to interrupt the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday. I chose to
increase PoPs accordingly, following the best model consensus for
precip I could find. Thursday and Friday remains in much better
confidence for dry and hot conditions under the ridge. After
Friday, the normal model discrepancies show up regarding the next
storm system from the west. BMickelson
Previous long term discussion: The overall pattern aloft over
CONUS will be a broad high across the Southwest and ridge axis up
through the spine of the Northern Rockies, a trough nudged up
against the Northwest Coast, and a larger trough centered across
Hudson Bay. The pattern will create a northwest flow for Northeast
Montana Monday night. Nemont will initially be located near the
boundary between the cool air mass to the northeast and the warm
air mass to the southwest. The ridge axis will shift east over the
local region allowing the hot air mass to surge north into
Montana. Temperatures will quickly rise from the 70s Monday into
the 80s Tuesday. A rise to summer temperatures will coincide with
the solstice. Wednesday temperatures will rise higher, into the
upper 80s.
Beyond the middle of the week the forecast become a bit more
murky. This uncertainty is based on the location of the western
trough. The EC sends it north into BC, while the GFS lingers
longer before moving into BC. By the beginning of the weekend the
models are out of phase. The effect will be to make it difficult
to determine when the associated front moves into Northeast
Montana. The fluctuating boundary, along with the instability in
place, will likely be able to produce periods of showers with
thunder.
Templer
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the night.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms however may
still temporarily reduce VSBYS. Maliawco
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday For Fort Peck Lake for
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
1146 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...
1130PM Update...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. However, an
isolated stronger storm may still be possible in a few locations
overnight, especially near the North Dakota Border. Nevertheless,
the threat for large hail and/or damaging winds is diminishing and
trends are expected to continue. Maliawco
930PM Update...
Severe Thunderstorm watch is now in effect until midnight and
includes Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. Phillips and
Petroleum were removed. Damaging winds and Large hail continue to
be the primary threat as storms push east over the next few hours.
Brief heavy rain is also a potential. Maliawco
Previous Discussion...
Strong shortwave lifting out of the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon with convection developing in central Montana. Severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of northern Montana
for late this afternoon and evening. May need to extend it late
tonight for the northeast zones as storms will be later arriving.
Convection developing along a cold front that will sweep across
the state overnight. Along with the severe thunderstorm potential,
strong post frontal winds are also possible with 700mb winds of
40-50 knots. These winds continue through Sunday afternoon so have
issued a lake wind advisory for late tonight through Sunday
evening.
Shortwave trof moves quickly through southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba on Sunday with upper ridge beginning to develop into the
northern Rockies. Canadian high pressure slides into the northern
plains Sunday night for diminished winds into Monday. Ebert
.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
General forecast thinking remains roughly the same, with a little
bit less confidence as models have now begun to introduce a few
rain showers and thunderstorms under the ridge of high pressure.
In fact, new model data today brings through a quick low pressure
trough to interrupt the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday. I chose to
increase PoPs accordingly, following the best model consensus for
precip I could find. Thursday and Friday remains in much better
confidence for dry and hot conditions under the ridge. After
Friday, the normal model discrepancies show up regarding the next
storm system from the west. BMickelson
Previous long term discussion: The overall pattern aloft over
CONUS will be a broad high across the Southwest and ridge axis up
through the spine of the Northern Rockies, a trough nudged up
against the Northwest Coast, and a larger trough centered across
Hudson Bay. The pattern will create a northwest flow for Northeast
Montana Monday night. Nemont will initially be located near the
boundary between the cool air mass to the northeast and the warm
air mass to the southwest. The ridge axis will shift east over the
local region allowing the hot air mass to surge north into
Montana. Temperatures will quickly rise from the 70s Monday into
the 80s Tuesday. A rise to summer temperatures will coincide with
the solstice. Wednesday temperatures will rise higher, into the
upper 80s.
Beyond the middle of the week the forecast become a bit more
murky. This uncertainty is based on the location of the western
trough. The EC sends it north into BC, while the GFS lingers
longer before moving into BC. By the beginning of the weekend the
models are out of phase. The effect will be to make it difficult
to determine when the associated front moves into Northeast
Montana. The fluctuating boundary, along with the instability in
place, will likely be able to produce periods of showers with
thunder.
Templer
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the night.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms however may
still temporarily reduce VSBYS. Maliawco
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday For Fort Peck Lake for
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Aviation section updated
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled. A
few scattered showers and/or thunderstorms remain across the area as
the cold front progresses east but are lacking severe intensity.
Convective activity should end by midnight with clearing skies.
Closed upper low moves to southwest Alberta early Sunday morning.
Strong westerly flow aloft and a strong pressure gradient across the
Rockies will result in increasing winds which will become quite
gusty by early Sunday morning. Temperatures look good.
$$
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
A few light showers will move northeastward through the region
through 12z or Sunday before gradually diminishing. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. Surface winds will be strong at times
Sunday morning through late afternoon...before gradually diminishing
Sunday evening. Drier air moves in aloft Sunday evening...as skies
begin to clear out. Brusda
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 237 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 50 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Aviation section updated
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled. A
few scattered showers and/or thunderstorms remain across the area as
the cold front progresses east but are lacking severe intensity.
Convective activity should end by midnight with clearing skies.
Closed upper low moves to southwest Alberta early Sunday morning.
Strong westerly flow aloft and a strong pressure gradient across the
Rockies will result in increasing winds which will become quite
gusty by early Sunday morning. Temperatures look good.
$$
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
A few light showers will move northeastward through the region
through 12z or Sunday before gradually diminishing. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. Surface winds will be strong at times
Sunday morning through late afternoon...before gradually diminishing
Sunday evening. Drier air moves in aloft Sunday evening...as skies
begin to clear out. Brusda
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 237 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 50 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
937 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...
Update...
Severe Thunderstorm watch is now in effect until midnight and
includes Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. Phillips and
Petroleum were removed. Damaging winds and Large hail continue to
be the primary threat as storms push east over the next few hours.
Brief heavy rain is also a potential. Maliawco
Previous Discussion...
Strong shortwave lifting out of the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon with convection developing in central Montana. Severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of northern Montana
for late this afternoon and evening. May need to extend it late
tonight for the northeast zones as storms will be later arriving.
Convection developing along a cold front that will sweep across
the state overnight. Along with the severe thunderstorm potential,
strong post frontal winds are also possible with 700mb winds of
40-50 knots. These winds continue through Sunday afternoon so have
issued a lake wind advisory for late tonight through Sunday
evening.
Shortwave trof moves quickly through southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba on Sunday with upper ridge beginning to develop into the
northern Rockies. Canadian high pressure slides into the northern
plains Sunday night for diminished winds into Monday. Ebert
.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
General forecast thinking remains roughly the same, with a little
bit less confidence as models have now begun to introduce a few
rain showers and thunderstorms under the ridge of high pressure.
In fact, new model data today brings through a quick low pressure
trough to interrupt the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday. I chose to
increase PoPs accordingly, following the best model consensus for
precip I could find. Thursday and Friday remains in much better
confidence for dry and hot conditions under the ridge. After
Friday, the normal model discrepancies show up regarding the next
storm system from the west. BMickelson
Previous long term discussion: The overall pattern aloft over
CONUS will be a broad high across the Southwest and ridge axis up
through the spine of the Northern Rockies, a trough nudged up
against the Northwest Coast, and a larger trough centered across
Hudson Bay. The pattern will create a northwest flow for Northeast
Montana Monday night. Nemont will initially be located near the
boundary between the cool air mass to the northeast and the warm
air mass to the southwest. The ridge axis will shift east over the
local region allowing the hot air mass to surge north into
Montana. Temperatures will quickly rise from the 70s Monday into
the 80s Tuesday. A rise to summer temperatures will coincide with
the solstice. Wednesday temperatures will rise higher, into the
upper 80s.
Beyond the middle of the week the forecast become a bit more
murky. This uncertainty is based on the location of the western
trough. The EC sends it north into BC, while the GFS lingers
longer before moving into BC. By the beginning of the weekend the
models are out of phase. The effect will be to make it difficult
to determine when the associated front moves into Northeast
Montana. The fluctuating boundary, along with the instability in
place, will likely be able to produce periods of showers with
thunder.
Templer
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface low pressure is now deepening over central Montana and
thunderstorms have begun to develop and mature over those higher
elevations. Latest model guidance brings these storms through
northeast Montana later this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center continues its Convective Outlook for
slight and enhanced chances for severe thunderstorms across
portions of the area. When supercell thunderstorms develop, they
would mainly threaten KGGW, KOLF and KSDY and locations north with
very large hail and very damaging winds.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon, then lowering
ceilings with storms by this evening. Severe thunderstorms with
very damaging winds and large hail are possible after 23Z
especially for KGGW and KOLF. TAF amendments are likely amid
possible temporary VLIFR conditions due to these severe
thunderstorms.
Winds from the east and southeast today ahead of the front will
bring ample warm moist air into the storm environment. A sudden
wind shift and cold front from the northwest later this afternoon will
be the main focus for storm development. Highly erratic and gusty
winds of 40 to 60 mph are expected near the stronger storms.
Templer/Mickelson
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday For Fort Peck Lake for
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
937 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...
Update...
Severe Thunderstorm watch is now in effect until midnight and
includes Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties. Phillips and
Petroleum were removed. Damaging winds and Large hail continue to
be the primary threat as storms push east over the next few hours.
Brief heavy rain is also a potential. Maliawco
Previous Discussion...
Strong shortwave lifting out of the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon with convection developing in central Montana. Severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of northern Montana
for late this afternoon and evening. May need to extend it late
tonight for the northeast zones as storms will be later arriving.
Convection developing along a cold front that will sweep across
the state overnight. Along with the severe thunderstorm potential,
strong post frontal winds are also possible with 700mb winds of
40-50 knots. These winds continue through Sunday afternoon so have
issued a lake wind advisory for late tonight through Sunday
evening.
Shortwave trof moves quickly through southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba on Sunday with upper ridge beginning to develop into the
northern Rockies. Canadian high pressure slides into the northern
plains Sunday night for diminished winds into Monday. Ebert
.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
General forecast thinking remains roughly the same, with a little
bit less confidence as models have now begun to introduce a few
rain showers and thunderstorms under the ridge of high pressure.
In fact, new model data today brings through a quick low pressure
trough to interrupt the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday. I chose to
increase PoPs accordingly, following the best model consensus for
precip I could find. Thursday and Friday remains in much better
confidence for dry and hot conditions under the ridge. After
Friday, the normal model discrepancies show up regarding the next
storm system from the west. BMickelson
Previous long term discussion: The overall pattern aloft over
CONUS will be a broad high across the Southwest and ridge axis up
through the spine of the Northern Rockies, a trough nudged up
against the Northwest Coast, and a larger trough centered across
Hudson Bay. The pattern will create a northwest flow for Northeast
Montana Monday night. Nemont will initially be located near the
boundary between the cool air mass to the northeast and the warm
air mass to the southwest. The ridge axis will shift east over the
local region allowing the hot air mass to surge north into
Montana. Temperatures will quickly rise from the 70s Monday into
the 80s Tuesday. A rise to summer temperatures will coincide with
the solstice. Wednesday temperatures will rise higher, into the
upper 80s.
Beyond the middle of the week the forecast become a bit more
murky. This uncertainty is based on the location of the western
trough. The EC sends it north into BC, while the GFS lingers
longer before moving into BC. By the beginning of the weekend the
models are out of phase. The effect will be to make it difficult
to determine when the associated front moves into Northeast
Montana. The fluctuating boundary, along with the instability in
place, will likely be able to produce periods of showers with
thunder.
Templer
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface low pressure is now deepening over central Montana and
thunderstorms have begun to develop and mature over those higher
elevations. Latest model guidance brings these storms through
northeast Montana later this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center continues its Convective Outlook for
slight and enhanced chances for severe thunderstorms across
portions of the area. When supercell thunderstorms develop, they
would mainly threaten KGGW, KOLF and KSDY and locations north with
very large hail and very damaging winds.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon, then lowering
ceilings with storms by this evening. Severe thunderstorms with
very damaging winds and large hail are possible after 23Z
especially for KGGW and KOLF. TAF amendments are likely amid
possible temporary VLIFR conditions due to these severe
thunderstorms.
Winds from the east and southeast today ahead of the front will
bring ample warm moist air into the storm environment. A sudden
wind shift and cold front from the northwest later this afternoon will
be the main focus for storm development. Highly erratic and gusty
winds of 40 to 60 mph are expected near the stronger storms.
Templer/Mickelson
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday For Fort Peck Lake for
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
910 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled. A
few scattered showers and/or thunderstorms remain across the area as
the cold front progresses east but are lacking severe intensity.
Convective activity should end by midnight with clearing skies.
Closed upper low moves to southwest Alberta early Sunday morning.
Strong westerly flow aloft and a strong pressure gradient across the
Rockies will result in increasing winds which will become quite
gusty by early Sunday morning. Temperatures look good.
$$
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
Moist south to southwest flow aloft will continue. A cold front will
continue to move across the area from west to east through the
evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually end by
07z. Some thunderstorms could be severe during the evening. Skies
will clear after 07z with west winds increasing and becoming gusty
by 15z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 237 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 50 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
828 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Fairly quiet weather in our CWA this evening. Drier air has
invaded the southwestern half of our area with a dry line
basically extending from Judith Gap to Alzada. Low level axis of
moisture extends from northern Montana to the southeast through
the Dakotas. Severe Weather over northern Montana this evening
being driven by strong low level convergence and upper jet stream
support. Models keep the strong convection to the north overnight.
We do have a wind shift to the southwest as that drier air mixes
down. However, I believe the main cold front is still over central
Montana and will push through Billings late this evening, and then
through Broadus around 1-2 am.
Main concern this evening is a group of fires popping up in
southern Rosebud and western Powder River Counties. This area had
some decent lightning occur last night. The hot and dry air mass
taking over has had several wildfires develop in this area today.
We will update the fire weather forecast and keep an eye on wind
shift timing etc for this area. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
An upper low over the Pacific northwest coast will continue to
move inland into northern Idaho this afternoon into this evening.
Several disturbances and a strong jet will move across north
central Montana this afternoon into this evening. At the same
time, a surface low will develop and move across this area and
become more organized across the northeast portions of the state.
Models continue to show the best locations for severe
thunderstorms through this evening across the northern half of the
state. As this low moves east it will swing a strong cold front
across our western areas early evening and the remaining portions
of our forecast late this evening into the early morning hours
Sunday. Winds will gust around 40 mph along and behind the front
and become west to northwest.
Drier air aloft has mixed down this afternoon from Livingston to
Sheridan resulting in temperatures climbing into the 90s with
humidities into the lower teens. We will keep a slight
thunderstorm chance in the forecast through this evening across or
far western areas from Park County to Golden Valley County given
the better dynamics and moisture will be across north central
Montana. The best potential for severe weather will be north and
west of our forecast area across the northern half of the state.
Sunday & Monday...Sunday will see partly to mostly sunny skies
behind this evenings front with breezy west to northwest winds.
Afternoon temperatures Sunday will be much cooler with readings in
the 70s to around 80 degrees...with highs Monday slightly warmer
in the lower 80s. Hooley
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Mainly dry conditions still in the forecast for the middle the
week as high pressure moves over the region. A weak shortwave to
our north could generate an isolated shower on Tuesday afternoon
but coverage will be limited. Ridge axis re-establishes itself
Wednesday and that will likely be the hottest day of the week with
temperatures in the mid 90s. Ridge slowly slides east through the
end of the week and isolated showers and thunderstorms, along with
upper 80s, returns to the forecast. Better chances for
thunderstorms on Saturday of next week but timing of the upper
level disturbance differs so leaned towards climo POPs on Friday
and Saturday. Dobbs
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front is pushing east through the area this evening. Winds
gusting to as high as 40 kts at KLVM will decrease some overnight.
The cold front had passed through KBIL around 01Z and should make
it to KMLS by around 06Z. Westerly winds behind the cold front of
20 to 30 kts will eventually shift out of the northwest and remain
gusty into Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail across the area
through the period. STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 050/082 058/092 059/092 058/090 059/090 059/087
10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
LVM 053/076 040/084 050/090 051/089 050/086 052/086 052/083
20/N 00/U 10/U 11/B 11/B 23/T 32/T
HDN 056/080 049/084 053/093 056/093 057/091 057/094 057/088
10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 061/079 050/082 058/091 061/092 060/090 061/091 061/087
10/N 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 061/082 050/083 055/094 062/093 060/092 060/094 062/089
10/U 00/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 059/076 046/080 053/087 058/090 056/088 056/088 060/085
10/N 00/U 10/U 22/W 11/U 12/T 33/T
SHR 058/079 046/083 054/091 056/091 055/089 055/090 058/086
10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/B 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
605 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Updated Aviation Section
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
Moist south to southwest flow aloft will continue. A cold front will
continue to move across the area from west to east through the
evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually end by
07z. Some thunderstorms could be severe during the evening. Skies
will clear after 07z with west winds increasing and becoming gusty
by 15z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 50 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 60 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 40 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
605 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Updated Aviation Section
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
Moist south to southwest flow aloft will continue. A cold front will
continue to move across the area from west to east through the
evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually end by
07z. Some thunderstorms could be severe during the evening. Skies
will clear after 07z with west winds increasing and becoming gusty
by 15z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 50 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 60 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 40 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
336 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...
Strong shortwave lifting out of the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon with convection developing in central Montana. Severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of northern Montana
for late this afternoon and evening. May need to extend it late
tonight for the northeast zones as storms will be later arriving.
Convection developing along a cold front that will sweep across
the state overnight. Along with the severe thunderstorm potential,
strong post frontal winds are also possible with 700mb winds of
40-50 knots. These winds continue through Sunday afternoon so have
issued a lake wind advisory for late tonight through Sunday
evening.
Shortwave trof moves quickly through southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba on Sunday with upper ridge beginning to develop into the
northern Rockies. Canadian high pressure slides into the northern
plains Sunday night for diminished winds into Monday. Ebert
.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
General forecast thinking remains roughly the same, with a little
bit less confidence as models have now begun to introduce a few
rain showers and thunderstorms under the ridge of high pressure.
In fact, new model data today brings through a quick low pressure
trough to interrupt the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday. I chose to
increase PoPs accordingly, following the best model consensus for
precip I could find. Thursday and Friday remains in much better
confidence for dry and hot conditions under the ridge. After
Friday, the normal model discrepancies show up regarding the next
storm system from the west. BMickelson
Previous long term discussion: The overall pattern aloft over
CONUS will be a broad high across the Southwest and ridge axis up
through the spine of the Northern Rockies, a trough nudged up
against the Northwest Coast, and a larger trough centered across
Hudson Bay. The pattern will create a northwest flow for Northeast
Montana Monday night. Nemont will initially be located near the
boundary between the cool air mass to the northeast and the warm
air mass to the southwest. The ridge axis will shift east over the
local region allowing the hot air mass to surge north into
Montana. Temperatures will quickly rise from the 70s Monday into
the 80s Tuesday. A rise to summer temperatures will coincide with
the solstice. Wednesday temperatures will rise higher, into the
upper 80s.
Beyond the middle of the week the forecast become a bit more
murky. This uncertainty is based on the location of the western
trough. The EC sends it north into BC, while the GFS lingers
longer before moving into BC. By the beginning of the weekend the
models are out of phase. The effect will be to make it difficult
to determine when the associated front moves into Northeast
Montana. The fluctuating boundary, along with the instability in
place, will likely be able to produce periods of showers with
thunder.
Templer
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface low pressure is now deepening over central Montana and
thunderstorms have begun to develop and mature over those higher
elevations. Latest model guidance brings these storms through
northeast Montana later this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center continues its Convective Outlook for
slight and enhanced chances for severe thunderstorms across
portions of the area. When supercell thunderstorms develop, they
would mainly threaten KGGW, KOLF and KSDY and locations north with
very large hail and very damaging winds.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon, then lowering
ceilings with storms by this evening. Severe thunderstorms with
very damaging winds and large hail are possible after 23Z
especially for KGGW and KOLF. TAF amendments are likely amid
possible temporary VLIFR conditions due to these severe
thunderstorms.
Winds from the east and southeast today ahead of the front will
bring ample warm moist air into the storm environment. A sudden
wind shift and cold front from the northwest later this afternoon will
be the main focus for storm development. Highly erratic and gusty
winds of 40 to 60 mph are expected near the stronger storms.
Templer/Mickelson
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM MDT Sunday For
Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and
Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
328 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
An upper low over the Pacific northwest coast will continue to
move inland into northern Idaho this afternoon into this evening.
Several disturbances and a strong jet will move across north
central Montana this afternoon into this evening. At the same
time, a surface low will develop and move across this area and
become more organized across the northeast portions of the state.
Models continue to show the best locations for severe
thunderstorms through this evening across the northern half of the
state. As this low moves east it will swing a strong cold front
across our western areas early evening and the remaining portions
of our forecast area late this evening into the early morning
hours Sunday. Winds will gust around 40 mph along and behind the
front and become west to northwest.
Drier air aloft has mixed down this afternoon from Livingston to
Sheridan resulting in temperatures climbing into the 90s with
humidities into the lower teens. We will keep a slight
thunderstorm chance in the forecast through this evening across
our far western areas from Park County to Golden Valley County
given the better dynamics and moisture will be across north
central Montana. The best potential for severe weather will be
north and west of our forecast area across the northern half of
the state.
Sunday & Monday...Sunday will see partly to mostly sunny skies
behind this evenings front with breezy west to northwest winds.
Afternoon temperatures Sunday will be much cooler with readings in
the 70s to around 80 degrees...with highs Monday slightly warmer
in the lower 80s. Hooley
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Mainly dry conditions still in the forecast for the middle the
week as high pressure moves over the region. A weak shortwave to
our north could generate an isolated shower on Tuesday afternoon
but coverage will be limited. Ridge axis re-establishes itself
Wednesday and that will likely be the hottest day of the week with
temperatures in the mid 90s. Ridge slowly slides east through the
end of the week and isolated showers and thunderstorms, along with
upper 80s, returns to the forecast. Better chances for
thunderstorms on Saturday of next week but timing of the upper
level disturbance differs so leaned towards climo POPs on Friday
and Saturday. Dobbs
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front passed KLVM at 20Z and winds will remain gusty from the
southwest around 30 to 40 kts through the rest of the afternoon
and evening. This front will reach KBIL around 00Z with a wind
shift to the west at around 25 to 30 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF area wide. Further east, front will
weaken approaching KSHR and KMLS overnight and contain a less
pronounced wind shift to west and northwest. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible near KMLS after 00z, but not enough
confidence to mention VCTS in TAF. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 050/082 058/092 059/092 058/090 059/090 059/087
11/N 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
LVM 053/076 040/084 050/090 051/089 050/086 052/086 052/083
21/N 00/U 10/U 11/B 11/B 23/T 32/T
HDN 056/080 049/084 053/093 056/093 057/091 057/094 057/088
11/N 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 061/079 050/082 058/091 061/092 060/090 061/091 061/087
10/N 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 061/082 050/083 055/094 062/093 060/092 060/094 062/089
11/U 00/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 059/076 046/080 053/087 058/090 056/088 056/088 060/085
10/N 00/U 10/U 22/W 11/U 12/T 33/T
SHR 058/079 046/083 054/091 056/091 055/089 055/090 058/086
11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/B 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
237 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1707Z.
Mid level cloud deck with a few embedded showers over areas near
the Canadian border will lift north early this afternoon with clear
skies to the south giving way to cumulus development with possible
thunderstorms along areas near the Continental Divide early this
afternoon. Storms will track NE across mainly central/N-central MT
late this afternoon and evening with increasing coverage and
intensity across NE portions of N-Central MT. Some storms in these
areas could be severe with gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail.
KHVR terminal is most likely to impacted by this activity between 23-
02Z. Clearing skies follow from the west later tonight with winds
increasing from the west and becoming quite windy across much of the
region by Sunday morning. Hoenisch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 50 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 60 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 40 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
237 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...Upper level low centered off the WA coast
with shortwave trough entering ID this afternoon will push inland
and along the US/Canadian border tonight with shortwave and
associated Pacific Cold front at the surface sweeping east across
the forecast area this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over
the western MT Mtns this afternoon will increase in coverage and
intensity as they track NE across central/N-central MT late this
afternoon and evening and encounter increasingly favorable
moisture/instability and shear. Threat for severe thunderstorms
through this evening still looks be be concentrated across areas N
and E of Great Falls, with highest risk for organized supercell
thunderstorms across Hill/Blaine/NE Choteau counties. Upper low
center will reach southern Alberta Sunday morning with strong west
flow aloft to its south along with a decent pressure gradient
across the Rockies for very windy conditions over NW portions of
N-central MT developing late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. At this point conditions look marginal for high wind
conditions due to the timing of the wind max during the Sunday AM
period but a few gusts in excess of 45 kts cannot be ruled out,
particularly in areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and across
Glacier and Toole counties. Cooler but dry airmass remains over
the region Sunday afternoon with decreasing winds late Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then rebuilds across the
Northern Rockies and MT Sunday night through Monday for continued
dry and warming conditions. Hoenisch
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1707Z.
Mid level cloud deck with a few embedded showers over areas near
the Canadian border will lift north early this afternoon with clear
skies to the south giving way to cumulus development with possible
thunderstorms along areas near the Continental Divide early this
afternoon. Storms will track NE across mainly central/N-central MT
late this afternoon and evening with increasing coverage and
intensity across NE portions of N-Central MT. Some storms in these
areas could be severe with gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail.
KHVR terminal is most likely to impacted by this activity between 23-
02Z. Clearing skies follow from the west later tonight with winds
increasing from the west and becoming quite windy across much of the
region by Sunday morning. Hoenisch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 45 70 42 78 / 50 0 0 0
CTB 45 66 41 74 / 60 10 0 0
HLN 48 73 46 82 / 40 0 0 0
BZN 46 74 42 84 / 20 10 0 0
WEY 44 67 38 75 / 10 10 0 0
DLN 43 74 43 84 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 70 45 78 / 60 10 0 0
LWT 47 70 45 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
221 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...A cold front moving through the region this
afternoon and evening will cause showers, thunderstorms, and
strong winds. The strongest winds are expected from Salmon, ID to
Anaconda and Butte, MT and along the Continental Divide, where
gusts will exceed 40 mph. The instability with the front is rather
weak, so we expect more showers with isolated thunderstorms.
Showers and storms will be moving quickly. Model soundings and
hodographs indicate storm speeds near 40 knots. With such a
strongly sheared environment and weak instability, thunderstorms
will be sheared apart quickly, and the only area they will be able
to persist is right along the cold front, where frontal lifting
will help sustain the updrafts. Recreational impacts will be
plentiful through tonight until conditions calm down after sunset.
With the system exiting to the north and east, high pressure will
develop over western Montana and central Idaho by the end of
Sunday, allowing for temperatures to once again return to
seasonal normals (or slightly warmer than that) through the middle
of the week. By Tuesday, values will climb into the 80s to low
90s. A quick-moving shortwave will increase clouds and perhaps a
few rain showers to spread across the Montana/Canada border
Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds becoming gusty area-wide. This
will likely cause a recreational inconvenience to those planning
on being outdoors and/or on area lakes.
Beyond Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to continue
with mainly warm and dry weather through the remainder of the week.
A few showers and thunderstorms could be possible by the end of
the week, with global models showing a trough approaching the
Northern Rockies by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...A cold front moving through the region this afternoon
and evening will cause showers, thunderstorms, and strong winds.
Strong winds will affect all terminals, though KBTM and KSMN are
expected to have the strongest winds this evening. The instability
with the front is rather weak, so we expect more showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Showers and storms will be moving quickly.
Model soundings and hodographs indicate storm speeds near 40
knots. With such a strongly sheared environment and weak
instability, thunderstorms will be sheared apart quickly. The
only area we expect significant storms to persist is right along
the front this afternoon and evening, from 19/2000Z through
20/0300Z.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot/Sapphire
Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening Missoula/Bitterroot
Valleys.
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Flathead Lake
in the Flathead/Mission Valleys.
ID...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening Eastern Lemhi County.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1107 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery this morning shows upper level low centered
just off the WA coast with energy located in the base of the
trough to its south having already moved onshore into central OR
and poised to lift NE across Northern ID/NW MT this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of this feature is a SW to NE oriented upper level
jet with front exit region already initiating some widely scattered
showers across northern portions of the forecast area which should
continue north into Canada by around noon. Have adjusted pops
somewhat this morning to better reflect this activity. Pacific
cool front associated with the incoming upper system is still
expected to reach the continental divide early this afternoon then
sweep east across N-Central and SW MT late this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms will initiate over West-central MT early
this afternoon and track NE into an increasingly favorable
environment for strong to severe thunderstorms across N-central MT
late this afternoon through early evening. SE low level flow has
brought dewpoint values to near 50 at HVR and LWT already this
morning and some additional westward expansion is likely by early
this afternoon. Instability and shear beneath the upper level jet
will support the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms for
areas east of I-15 and north of Hwy 87(from Great Falls to
Lewistown) with lesser storm coverage and intensity for areas to
the south. Storm organization should continue to increase late
this afternoon as storms move NE into Hill/Blaine counties where
low level shear/helicity will be somewhat better for a small risk
of tornadoes. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1707Z.
Mid level cloud deck with a few embedded showers over areas near
the Canadian border will lift north early this afternoon with clear
skies to the south giving way to cumulus development with possible
thunderstorms along areas near the Continental Divide early this
afternoon. Storms will track NE across mainly central/N-central MT
late this afternoon and evening with increasing coverage and
intensity across NE portions of N-Central MT. Some storms in these
areas could be severe with gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail.
KHVR terminal is most likely to impacted by this activity between 23-
02Z. Clearing skies follow from the west later tonight with winds
increasing from the west and becoming quite windy across much of the
region by Sunday morning. Hoenisch
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
Today through Monday...A semi quiet start to the morning will give
way to a more active afternoon/evening over the region. A few
light showers will continue to move northeastward through the area
this morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves through. A
Pacific cool front moves through the region late this
afternoon/evening allowing for the potential for storms to develop
over much of Central/North Central MT. Some storms could be
severe, especially over North Central MT...mainly east of a line
from Chester to Great Falls. SPC has an enhanced risk in
Hill/Blaine counties where hail bigger than golf balls and a
tornado is possible. Most of the severe weather should diminish by
late evening with just a few passing showers after Midnight. The
other concern overnight will be the potential for strong winds
over the Rocky Mountain front. Latest NAM has winds near 70knots
along the divide...right near warning criteria. For now I will
hold off on a highlight...but the potential for a wind highlight
later today or tonight is possible. On Sunday...drier and slightly
cooler air will move into the region behind the Pacific cool
front. There will be just a small chance for a passing shower
Sunday afternoon...mainly north of Highway 2 as they will be close
enough to the upper level low going across southern Canada. On
Monday...an upper level ridge starts to build over the
region...allowing for sunny...dry and warm conditions to develop
over the region.
Key Points for todays severe weather.
1. Main threat area is over North Central MT.
2. Best time for severe storms is from 4 PM to 9 PM.
3. Large hail/damaging winds the main impact.
4. Hail larger than golf balls and possible tornadoes mainly in
Hill and Blaine counties.
Brusda
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 80 45 69 42 / 40 50 10 0
CTB 75 43 65 41 / 50 60 10 0
HLN 81 48 72 45 / 40 30 10 0
BZN 86 45 73 41 / 10 20 10 0
WEY 74 40 66 37 / 10 10 10 0
DLN 80 43 73 42 / 30 20 10 0
HVR 82 47 69 45 / 40 70 10 0
LWT 84 47 69 44 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1107 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery this morning shows upper level low centered
just off the WA coast with energy located in the base of the
trough to its south having already moved onshore into central OR
and poised to lift NE across Northern ID/NW MT this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of this feature is a SW to NE oriented upper level
jet with front exit region already initiating some widely scattered
showers across northern portions of the forecast area which should
continue north into Canada by around noon. Have adjusted pops
somewhat this morning to better reflect this activity. Pacific
cool front associated with the incoming upper system is still
expected to reach the continental divide early this afternoon then
sweep east across N-Central and SW MT late this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms will initiate over West-central MT early
this afternoon and track NE into an increasingly favorable
environment for strong to severe thunderstorms across N-central MT
late this afternoon through early evening. SE low level flow has
brought dewpoint values to near 50 at HVR and LWT already this
morning and some additional westward expansion is likely by early
this afternoon. Instability and shear beneath the upper level jet
will support the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms for
areas east of I-15 and north of Hwy 87(from Great Falls to
Lewistown) with lesser storm coverage and intensity for areas to
the south. Storm organization should continue to increase late
this afternoon as storms move NE into Hill/Blaine counties where
low level shear/helicity will be somewhat better for a small risk
of tornadoes. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1707Z.
Mid level cloud deck with a few embedded showers over areas near
the Canadian border will lift north early this afternoon with clear
skies to the south giving way to cumulus development with possible
thunderstorms along areas near the Continental Divide early this
afternoon. Storms will track NE across mainly central/N-central MT
late this afternoon and evening with increasing coverage and
intensity across NE portions of N-Central MT. Some storms in these
areas could be severe with gusts in excess of 50kts and large hail.
KHVR terminal is most likely to impacted by this activity between 23-
02Z. Clearing skies follow from the west later tonight with winds
increasing from the west and becoming quite windy across much of the
region by Sunday morning. Hoenisch
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
Today through Monday...A semi quiet start to the morning will give
way to a more active afternoon/evening over the region. A few
light showers will continue to move northeastward through the area
this morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves through. A
Pacific cool front moves through the region late this
afternoon/evening allowing for the potential for storms to develop
over much of Central/North Central MT. Some storms could be
severe, especially over North Central MT...mainly east of a line
from Chester to Great Falls. SPC has an enhanced risk in
Hill/Blaine counties where hail bigger than golf balls and a
tornado is possible. Most of the severe weather should diminish by
late evening with just a few passing showers after Midnight. The
other concern overnight will be the potential for strong winds
over the Rocky Mountain front. Latest NAM has winds near 70knots
along the divide...right near warning criteria. For now I will
hold off on a highlight...but the potential for a wind highlight
later today or tonight is possible. On Sunday...drier and slightly
cooler air will move into the region behind the Pacific cool
front. There will be just a small chance for a passing shower
Sunday afternoon...mainly north of Highway 2 as they will be close
enough to the upper level low going across southern Canada. On
Monday...an upper level ridge starts to build over the
region...allowing for sunny...dry and warm conditions to develop
over the region.
Key Points for todays severe weather.
1. Main threat area is over North Central MT.
2. Best time for severe storms is from 4 PM to 9 PM.
3. Large hail/damaging winds the main impact.
4. Hail larger than golf balls and possible tornadoes mainly in
Hill and Blaine counties.
Brusda
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 80 45 69 42 / 40 50 10 0
CTB 75 43 65 41 / 50 60 10 0
HLN 81 48 72 45 / 40 30 10 0
BZN 86 45 73 41 / 10 20 10 0
WEY 74 40 66 37 / 10 10 10 0
DLN 80 43 73 42 / 30 20 10 0
HVR 82 47 69 45 / 40 70 10 0
LWT 84 47 69 44 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1006 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery this morning shows upper level low centered
just off the WA coast with energy located in the base of the
trough to its south having already moved onshore into central OR
and poised to lift NE across Northern ID/NW MT this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of this feature is a SW to NE oriented upper level
jet with front exit region already initiating some widely scattered
showers across northern portions of the forecast area which should
continue north into Canada by around noon. Have adjusted pops
somewhat this morning to better reflect this activity. Pacific
cool front associated with the incoming upper system is still
expected to reach the continental divide early this afternoon then
sweep east across N-Central and SW MT late this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms will initiate over West-central MT early
this afternoon and track NE into an increasingly favorable
environment for strong to severe thunderstorms across N-central MT
late this afternoon through early evening. SE low level flow has
brought dewpoint values to near 50 at HVR and LWT already this
morning and some additional westward expansion is likely by early
this afternoon. Instability and shear beneath the upper level jet
will support the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms for
areas east of I-15 and north of Hwy 87(from Great Falls to
Lewistown) with lesser storm coverage and intensity for areas to
the south. Storm organization should continue to increase late
this afternoon as storms move NE into Hill/Blaine counties where
low level shear/helicity will be somewhat better for a small risk
of tornadoes. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
Patches of moisture moving through southwest flow aloft are creating
areas of SCT-BKN mid-level clouds and some isolated -SHRA across
central MT this morning. Expect mix of clear skies and passing mid-
level clouds through mid-aftn, followed by scattered thunderstorms
from about 20Z to 03Z, mainly along and north of line from KHLN to
KLWT as a cold front moves through the region. Some of these storms
vcnty KGTF and especially KHVR could be strong to severe with large
hail and wind gusts near 60 kts. Convective activity will move east
with the front through this evening with skies clearing from west to
east tonight.
Waranauskas
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
Today through Monday...A semi quiet start to the morning will give
way to a more active afternoon/evening over the region. A few
light showers will continue to move northeastward through the area
this morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves through. A
Pacific cool front moves through the region late this
afternoon/evening allowing for the potential for storms to develop
over much of Central/North Central MT. Some storms could be
severe, especially over North Central MT...mainly east of a line
from Chester to Great Falls. SPC has an enhanced risk in
Hill/Blaine counties where hail bigger than golf balls and a
tornado is possible. Most of the severe weather should diminish by
late evening with just a few passing showers after Midnight. The
other concern overnight will be the potential for strong winds
over the Rocky Mountain front. Latest NAM has winds near 70knots
along the divide...right near warning criteria. For now I will
hold off on a highlight...but the potential for a wind highlight
later today or tonight is possible. On Sunday...drier and slightly
cooler air will move into the region behind the Pacific cool
front. There will be just a small chance for a passing shower
Sunday afternoon...mainly north of Highway 2 as they will be close
enough to the upper level low going across southern Canada. On
Monday...an upper level ridge starts to build over the
region...allowing for sunny...dry and warm conditions to develop
over the region.
Key Points for todays severe weather.
1. Main threat area is over North Central MT.
2. Best time for severe storms is from 4 PM to 9 PM.
3. Large hail/damaging winds the main impact.
4. Hail larger than golf balls and possible tornadoes mainly in
Hill and Blaine counties.
Brusda
Monday Night through Saturday...What looked to be a relatively easy
forecast with little weather for much of next week now looking less
so, as model solutions show fair amount of variance from yesterday.
Period starts out well enough with both the GFS and ECMWF models
placing the axis of the warm, dry high pressure ridge over the
center of the Treasure State. By Tues night, the axis moves to the
MT/Dakotas border (similar to yesterday`s ECMWF solution), but
that`s where many of the model similarities end. On Wed, the GFS
puts the region under southwest flow aloft with monsoonal moisture
coming north through the Great Basin to generate scattered
thunderstorms, while the ECMWF rebuilds the ridge a bit with no
precip anywhere in our forecast area. There`s a few hours of
agreement on Thurs as the GFS does amplify the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies, but solution differences move to the PacNW coast
where the next weather system arrives late Thurs, mainly in that the
GFS is notably slower and wetter with this system. The primary
effect of the the current variances on our forecast is that
temperatures, though warming into the 80s through mid-week, seem
less likely to reach unseasonably hot values (low 90s) that the
models were suggesting in earlier runs. As for precip, the forecast
tends toward drier conditions, with generally only 20-25% chances
for showers and thunderstorms each aftn/eve from Wed to Fri.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 80 45 69 42 / 40 50 10 0
CTB 75 43 65 41 / 50 60 10 0
HLN 81 48 72 45 / 40 30 10 0
BZN 86 45 73 41 / 10 20 10 0
WEY 74 40 66 37 / 10 10 10 0
DLN 80 43 73 42 / 30 20 10 0
HVR 82 47 69 45 / 40 70 10 0
LWT 84 47 69 44 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
939 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
A mostly sunny and hot day is in store as a ridge of high
pressure will be over the forecast area. A strong cold front will
move across the forecast area this evening bringing gusty winds
with it. We are not expecting much thunderstorm activity ahead of
or along the front as the activity looks to stay to our north and
northwest this afternoon and evening across the northern half of
the state. However, our far western and northwest areas from Park
to Wheatland Counties may see a thunderstorm. In addition, short
range models are developing a few thunderstorms out across Fallon
County by late this morning into early this afternoon as a weak
boundary remains across that area. However, this area also looks
to be capped so we will be monitoring this area as well. Hooley
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...
Some convection developed during the overnight hours over
Powder River, Carter and Fallon Counties. The HRRR did a pretty
good job in framing both the timing and location of this activity.
Only a few reports came in...mainly dime sized hail, gusty
winds, and occasional heavy rain. The rain will be welcome over
this part of the CWA, as things have been looking pretty dry for
a while now.
Southwesterly flow continues to dominate the upper levels, as an
upper level low progresses over the northwest US.
The main severe threat will be over the TFX and GGW CWAs by
Saturday afternoon...where the best shear and unstable air will be
located. Surface low pressure will move to the northeast and drag
a frontal boundary across the BYZ CWA by Saturday night. This will
bring with it cooler and drier air. Due to rising heights and an
abundance of sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the 90s
across much of the lower elevations ahead of the aforementioned
front. Post frontal northwesterly winds will prevail, with
occasional gusts to near 40 mph by Sunday morning.
As far as precipitation is concerned, most of the short range
models keep the main activity well to our north. The best chance
for a pop-up thunderstorm would be over Golden Valley, Wheatland
or Musselshell County, but that may not be until later in the
afternoon.
Father`s Day will be much more comfortable, with highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Singer
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Dry conditions move in during the early part of the week as a
strong ridge builds over the desert southwest. Temperatures will
be on the increase through the week with 90s possible in the
plains from Tuesday onward. Should see some impulses ride north of
the ridge and bring at least a mention of thunderstorms to our
area on Wednesday and Thursday, although global models disagree on
the timing and position of those shortwaves. Regardless of the
timing, the potential will be there for afternoon thunderstorms
after mid-week. Walsh
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through period as winds will pick up from the
south and southeast this afternoon as a cold front nears. Winds
will occasionally gust to 20 or 25 kts prior to frontal
passage...especially in and west of KBIL. Winds turn west and
northwesterly behind front with 30 to 35 kt gusts possible for
about 2-3 hours at KBIL. Higher gusts near 40 or 45 kts also
possible at KLVM behind front. Rough frontal timing is KLVM at 21z
and 00Z at KBIL. Front becomes weaker near KMLS and KSHR after 03z
with only 25 to 30 kt gusts behind front. Dobbs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 056/079 050/082 055/089 059/093 061/090 059/090
1/U 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
LVM 088 048/076 042/081 048/089 053/091 054/086 052/086
1/N 21/N 00/U 10/U 01/B 12/T 22/T
HDN 094 056/081 049/084 053/091 058/094 060/091 059/091
1/U 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 092 061/079 052/081 056/089 061/094 064/091 062/091
1/U 11/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 32/T
4BQ 097 061/082 050/083 055/092 061/096 062/094 061/092
1/U 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 089 059/076 048/079 052/085 056/092 061/090 060/089
2/T 10/N 00/U 10/U 11/U 13/T 32/T
SHR 094 054/080 046/082 052/090 056/093 059/090 058/090
1/U 11/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 11/B 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Only minor changes were made with this update, namely to eliminate
the rest of the low-end shower/storm chances over north central ND
early this morning. The surface cold front extends from near Minot
to Dickinson and Hettinger at 11 UTC and will continue shifting to
the southeast this morning. An area of low clouds has formed just
behind the front over western and north central ND, but we expect
them to lift and erode by about 15 UTC as the boundary layer mixes
thanks to diurnal heating and increasing mechanical turbulence as
winds increase behind the front.
UPDATE Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quick update to cancel the rest of the severe thunderstorm watch
in north central ND and to reduce PoPs there the remainder of the
pre-dawn hours. RAP model soundings show increasing capping aloft
and radar and satellite imagery show no evidence of additional
convective development behind the cluster of intense storms which
is racing eastward around 50 kt and which is in northeast ND as of
0950 UTC. Thus, we are confident that the risk of severe weather
is over with.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North
Dakota with warm front looping through north central into
northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places series of
subtle short waves moving through the northern plains. Robust
convection continues over northern portions of North Dakota where
strong instability (2-3 KJ/KG) along with very impressive deep
layer shear (~60 kts) are noted. Storms will continue their
eastward progression through the early morning hours.
For the rest of today...storms should push to the east by around
or shortly after sunrise. Cold front will swoop through the area
bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations...with
the southern James River Valley being the possible exception as
the front may not approach until early/mid afternoon. Windy
conditions expected behind the front, especially over northwest
and west-central portions of the state where cool air advection
may allow stronger winds aloft to mix down. A wind advisory will
be posted over that area. Winds diminish in the evening with a
quiet night expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
Quiet weather expected Monday through Tuesday afternoon as upper
ridge passes over the area.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday...a shortwave trough working
through the Pacific Northwest scoots into and through the upper
ridge. In doing so, moisture advection increases with
thunderstorms initiating along and ahead a surface low as it
slides into western and central North Dakota. The shortwave trough
exits Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Occasional thunderstorm chances expected to end the week as a few
weak disturbances push through the area. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016
An area of low clouds and mist with IFR and LIFR conditions will
impact parts of western and north central ND early this morning.
Those lower flight categories have formed in the immediate wake
of a cold front, but the ceilings are forecast to lift by about
15 UTC as the lower atmosphere warms and mixes. Until then the
KMOT, KISN, and KDIK TAFs may require amendments. VFR conditions
are otherwise expected today and tonight with gusty northwest
winds. Winds will be strongest in western ND where gusts of 30 to
40 kt are expected.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
246 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night
Widely scattered showers have developed in the heat of the day
across mainly west central sections. HRRR solution and to a lesser
extent the NAM keep the showers going through sunset. As such, the
forecast will include a first period at issuance. Overall the models
are in decent agreement with the GFS a touch faster in the overall
picture. A compromise of solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Forecast starts out with an upper pattern characterized bu upper
troughs/lows off both coasts and upper ridging centered over the
Rockies and the western high plains. Moisture moving around the
bottom of the ridge helping to sustain the shower activity through
the evening. An upper trough moving through the northern tier states
suppressing the amplitude of the ridge to a certain extent.
The northern trough phases with the eastern seaboard trough with a
cold front approaching the state from the northeast in response. The
boundary makes slow progress and never really makes it into the
state during the short term period but the center of the upper high
will be suppressed a bit to the west.
Short wave energy and the approaching front will still help trigger
light, mainly diurnally driven convection through the period. Most
areas will remain dry and even where it does rain, amounts will be
minimal. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal but
northwest flow aloft will keep humidity low enough to avoid and
heat related headlines.
&&
.Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure aloft is expected over the mid south through the
period. No changes in the overall pattern are expected. This will
result in a mostly dry forecast with very warm temperatures. Another
cold front is expected to move into northeast Arkansas Friday and
slowly dip into central parts of the state Sunday. Any rain chances
will be in the northeast Friday and Saturday...and then included
slight chances in all areas for Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s
are expected through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 72 90 73 93 / 10 20 10 20
Camden AR 72 91 73 94 / 20 20 10 20
Harrison AR 69 89 71 90 / 10 10 10 20
Hot Springs AR 73 90 74 93 / 10 20 10 20
Little Rock AR 74 92 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
Monticello AR 73 91 74 93 / 20 20 10 20
Mount Ida AR 71 90 71 92 / 10 20 10 20
Mountain Home AR 70 91 72 92 / 10 10 10 20
Newport AR 73 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 20
Pine Bluff AR 73 91 74 93 / 10 20 10 20
Russellville AR 72 91 73 94 / 10 20 10 20
Searcy AR 72 91 73 93 / 10 20 10 20
Stuttgart AR 74 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...51