Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/18/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&
.Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10
Camden AR 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 69 89 68 88 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Little Rock AR 75 92 73 92 / 30 10 0 10
Monticello AR 75 93 74 91 / 30 10 0 10
Mount Ida AR 72 91 70 89 / 30 10 0 10
Mountain Home AR 70 89 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
Newport AR 71 92 72 91 / 20 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Russellville AR 73 92 71 91 / 30 10 0 10
Searcy AR 72 92 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
Stuttgart AR 74 91 73 91 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
814 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Four Corners region and expand
westward through early next week, resulting in very hot weather
Sunday through Tuesday. The hottest day will likely be Monday
when many areas away from the immediate coast will be well above
100 degrees. Gradual cooling is likely for the remainder of the
week, but temperatures will generally remain above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MON)
Warming trend has commenced today...with most areas up 5 to 10
degrees over yesterday. A large area of high pressure over
northern Mexico has started to expand to the north and west...and
will continue to as the trough to the north moves off to the
northeast. Meanwhile...onshore pressure gradients will weaken each
day through Sunday or Monday...while northerly gradients
strengthen. This all adds up to a very hot next few days.
Temperatures should trend up 5 to 10 degrees each day Saturday
through Monday. Monday still looks the hottest...when maximum
temperatures should generally range from 100 to 110 degrees away
from the immediate coast. Records will be threatened but records
are already high from previous heat waves in 2008 and 1973.
Excessive heat watches will be upgraded to warnings with the
afternoon forecast.
Other things are going on in the weather world besides the heat.
Dense fog will be a concern along the Central Coast tonight into
Saturday...and smoke will affect much of the area south and east
of Santa Barbara from the Sherpa Fire. Gusty Sundowner winds are
likely each night through Monday night...which will not help
firefighting efforts. The strongest winds are expected Saturday
Night and Sunday night when the winds turn more northerly and
Montecito will be in the crosshairs for gusts into the 40 mph
range. This boost may combine with the increasing heat to bring
red flag conditions. Some northerly winds will also affect the
I-5 corridor and areas to the south during this time...though wind
advisories do not look needed.
Convection is also in the picture. Thunderstorms currently over
west-central Mexico should rotate through southern California on
Sunday. This will bring some high clouds...but more importantly a
potential for dry lightning which would create a serious fire
starting source. The best chances are over Los Angeles County.
Confidence is always very low for such scenarios...but this will
have to monitored closely.
.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)
A trough off the northern California coast will nudge the high
pressure center to the east a touch...and help onshore pressure
gradients to return by the afternoon. This should allow coastal
and valley areas to cool some...but it will remain hot and well
above normal. Interior areas will not feel any affects from this
and excessively hot conditions look likely. The one wrinkle to
this is a large batch of high clouds that should fill the sky and
dampen some of the sun`s warming...but probably not too much. The
cooling trend will continue into Thursday and Friday as the trough
asserts itself more and the ridge retreats to the east. Expecting
some low clouds and fog to return as is custom for this time of
the year...and dense fog would be a concern when it does return.
The shift in the high will also allow for a window of southerly
flow aloft sometime from Tuesday through Thursday. Convection will
be possible as a result...though most of the moisture will be well
above the ground. Wednesday has the best shot of something...and a
slight chance was added to the mountains and deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...17/2350Z.
Marine layer at LAX at 2350Z is 500 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 1600 feet with a temp of 24.0 degrees C.
Gusty sundowner winds will once again impact portions of southern
SBA county through tonight, with moderate uddfs and llws at KSBA.
Any low clouds/fog expected to be confined to Central coast
tonight, with ifr/lifr cigs likely at KSBP and KSMX due to shallow
marine inversion. Current smoke trajectory from Santa Barbara
county wildfire will differ little through the period, with some
reduced vsbys in smoke across airfields into Santa Barbara,
Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
KLAX...A layer of smoke and haze aloft and near surface may
restrict vsybs into mvfr category at times through period.
KBUR...A layer of smoke and haze aloft and near surface may
restrict vsybs into mvfr category at times through period.
&&
.MARINE...17/800 PM.
Northwest winds to SCA levels will continue from Point Conception
to San Nicolas Island through late tonight. Northwest winds will
likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and small
craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to San
Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will build
Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below 10
feet. Otherwise an active storm track is expected during the
remainder of this week and the swells generated from the expected
storm force fetch areas from 190-220 will begin to arrive next
week Tuesday and build through next week Thursday. Small craft
advisory for hazardous sea conditions are not expected but extra
currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are likely.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
17/800 PM.
Gusty sundowner winds in effect once again for the western
portions of the SBA South coast and Santa Ynez mountains
this evening, The Refugio Hills RAWS sensor near the Sherpa Fire
was reporting north winds 31 mph gusting to 39 mph as of 8 pm.
Current SBA-Santa Maria gradient as of 8 pm at -3.4 mb and is
expected to further strengthen during the next few hours. As a
result, looking for sundowner winds to increase slightly, with
gusts of 35 to 40 mph along coastal portions west of Goleta, and
locally up to 45 mph in the foothills. Sundowner winds expected to
remain gusty through much of the night.
Elevated fire danger then expected to occur across Southwest
California Saturday through Tuesday due to the extended period of
very hot and dry conditions combined with the already dry fuels.
During this time, humidities in the teens and single digits will
be common for areas away from the coast. In addition, the Santa
Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains will see increasing
fire danger Saturday (late afternoon through nighttime hours) as
Sundowner winds are expected to be slightly stronger and more
widespread, while humidities are expected to lower to around 30
percent or lower. There is the potential for critical fire weather
conditions across the SBA south coast and Santa Ynez mountains
from late Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. During this
time, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued due to the combination
of gusty Sundowner winds, low humidities, and hot
temperatures...bringing the potential for extreme fire danger and
fire behavior. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible for
coastal areas , with gusts of 45 to 55 mph in the foothills and
mountains. Humidities are expected to lower to between 10 and 20
percent, along with poor overnight recoveries. Meanwhile,
temperatures are expected to soar into the 90s during the late
afternoon and evening hours, and could possibly exceed 100
degrees.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Saturday For zone 39. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday evening
For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT
Monday For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM
PDT Tuesday For zones 51>54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday morning For zones 239-252. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gomberg/Kittell
FIRE...Gomberg
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Sukup
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
619 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few lingering showers will be possible from Santa
Cruz northward through this evening. A warming and drying trend
is then expected to begin this weekend and persist into early next
week as high pressure builds westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 02:17 PM PDT Friday...Similar to this
morning, a stationary frontal boundary bisecting the Bay Area
continues to produce scattered showers across the Bay Area. Did
have to make an earlier update to bring shower chances to Santa
Cruz northward. Showers developed farther south than previously
thought. Given the constant stream of shower activity not
surprised by some of the 12 hour rainfall totals. A few locations
across the North Bay reported 0.25-0.5 inches over the last 12
hours. Other locations have been generally less than 0.1 inches.
Additionally, the increased cloud cover and scattered showers led
to much cooler temperatures as well. Santa Rosa is struggling to
reach the upper 60s.
Expect showers to continue this afternoon through early tonight,
mainly north of Santa Cruz. Additional rainfall will generally be
light and only a few hundredths.
By early Saturday the upper trough/stationary boundary will lift
northward as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. The
building high pressure will lead to a very noticeable warm up for
the Bay Area, especially after a prolonged period of cool weather.
In short, temperatures will warm Saturday/Sunday peak Monday and
then cool slightly on Tuesday. Overall confidence is moderate as
model guidance and run to run consistency has not been that great.
All of that being said, the hottest temperatures will occur Sun-
Tue over easter portions of the East Bay and interior portions of
Monterey/San Benito counties. Max temps will be in the upper 90s
to lower 100s. Did nudge the forecast down slightly from previous
forecast given slightly lower H5 and 850mb temps. Fortunately,
the hottest weather will be outside of the major urban centers.
More seasonable temps are expected in San Jose, Santa Rosa and SF
Bay shoreline. Much cooler temperatures are expected near the
immediate coast given the onshore flow...highs in the 60s/70s. A
few days of hot and dry conditions across the interior will also
bring heightened fire weather concerns this weekend and early next
weekend.
One change from previous models runs is the moist upper level southerly
flow early next week. At this point thunderstorms are not in the
forecast given the lack of instability. As of now this upper level
moisture will likely be clouds, but something to keep an eye on.
By Wednesday, temperatures begin to moderate across the interior
and return to more seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 6:19 PM PDT Friday...A weak cool front draped
over the area will edge SE to the Central Coast tonight gently and
briefly nudged forward by high pressure over the eastern Pacific.
Recent wind shift to NW direction recently observed at KSFO. The
front then quickly retreats northward Saturday.
For tonight, it`s a mix of patchy marine based clouds and fog
(e.g. Half Moon Bay currently reporting IFR), dissipating
convective clouds, and mid-high level clouds streaming in from the
SW. Even prior to the arrival of tonight`s cool front, low level
temps, per area profilers and Oak upper air sounding, are already
cooled to the point where the marine inversion is absent. Lower
level temps undergo 2C-3C cooling tonight then 925 mb temps
abruptly warm 4C-6C Saturday. Saturday onward through the weekend
is when marine layer inversion redevelopment is increasingly
likely.
00z terminals initially following close to persistence this evening.
Low level cooling tonight into early Saturday morning on a more
moist air mass equates to highly variable cigs and vsbys /lower
forecast confidence/ late tonight. Front retreating northward Saturday
should help with VFR returning to area terminals by late morning.
Vicinity of KSFO...Despite multiple cloud layers, VFR persists with
recent wind shift to NW direction. Coord with CWSU office and agree
pretty good chances (slightly better than moderate confidence) VFR
holds for the next 2-3 hours. As long as the NW-W wind settles lower
this evening the possibility of low clouds and/or fog becoming advected
through the San Bruno gap to the terminal decreases. Lower confidence
cig/vsbys forecast tonight and Saturday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR local IFR redeveloping in moist air
mass ahead of cool frontal boundary gradually sliding SE toward
the area tonight. 00z terminals tempo MVFR cigs this evening then
low to moderate confidence MVFR cigs prevail late tonight into Sat
morning as frontal boundary eventually becomes nearly stationary
south of the area very late tonight. Moderate to high confidence
VFR returns by late Sat morning as frontal boundary retreats
northward as warm front. May need to adjust terminal forecasts
toward IFR cigs a little sooner than presently forecast per recent
obs from KMRY.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:50 AM PDT Friday...A weak front across our
region will lead to fairly light winds and generally tranquil seas
today. northwesterly winds are anticipated to increase on saturday
as the surface pressure gradient strengthens. these strengthening
winds will lead to deteriorating sea surface conditions.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: Bell
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
312 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers over interior mountains will diminish this
evening then building high pressure will bring dry weather for
the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An organized cloud band stretching from Western Oregon into NW
California and the Bay Area into the East Pacific Ocean remains
quasi-stationary. This cloud band is associated with an unseasonably
strong upper level trough that is hanging out just off the Pacific
NW Coast. There will still be some lingering showers this afternoon
into this evening over the interior mountains. The coastal area
should remain fairly dry, while there will be scattered showers over
the mountains. Highest precipitation potential will be over the horn
of Trinity County. Also put in slight chance of thunderstorms for
them. Convective parameters are somewhat marginal. Lifted Index is
slightly negative. The most unstable CAPE is at most 500 J/kg. A
lightning strike or two is possible. But do not expect much other
than that. Thunderstorm potential should diminish overnight tonight.
Showers will push east overnight, and should move out of the CWA by
Saturday morning.
Dry weather will be in store for the area this weekend. However, do
expect daily marine layer intrusion into the coastal area each
night. Starting on Saturday, upper level flow will turn more
southwesterly, as Eureka is stuck in between a trough to the north
and a ridge to the south. This will probably mean more cloud cover
and slightly cooler conditions than previously thought. With this
setup, it is tough for the interior to really heats up, so trim back
the high temperature several degrees for the next few days. At this
point, really low confidence on whether the ridge will rebuild over
the area, or whether the upper trough will get stuck over our area.
Forecast confidence is below average. Numerical weather models have
been struggling with this slow moving high amplitude pattern. In
this kind of situation, ECMWF tends to outperform GFS. Thus, lean
more towards ECMWF in updating this forecast package. However,
northwest California is under southwest flow between the ridge and
the trough. Any slight change in the orientation of this pattern
will mean totally different weather, cloudy with showers versus
warmer and dry conditions. Nudge the temperatures over the interior
down a couple of degrees due to this uncertain weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and cloudy skies will continue for most of
northwest California with the exception of some blue skies along
the north coast. Airfields were reporting mostly VFR to MVFR
conditions across the area which should persist through the
evening as the front makes gradual eastward progression. With
this you will see diminishing cloud cover through tonight. Models,
however, suggest that lower clouds should develop around Humboldt
Bay bringing lower ceilings to KCEC, KACV, and KFOT. Some interior
valleys could see some low clouds develop early Saturday morning.
That said, expect variable conditions through tonight as
diminishing showers periodically lower ceilings with some MVFR stratus
developing across Humboldt Bay and interior valleys. /KML
&&
.MARINE...
Light northerly winds will continue today as low pressure over the
region maintains a weak pressure gradient. North winds will increase
further tonight through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure
builds in from the west. This will bring 15 to 25 kt gusts to the
outer waters Saturday afternoon and 25 to 35 kt gusts for Sunday
afternoon. A small craft advisory was issued for these fresh
northerly winds from Saturday night through Monday evening. It`s
possible that wind gusts will still meet criteria through Tuesday
afternoon but confidence is low because models have been trending
towards a weakening gradient for the middle of next week. Models
contain greater discrepancies for the late half of next week
so confidence is low in the direction and strength of winds
across northwest California waters.
The sea state currently consists of small swell systems out of
the northwest and south with a relatively low sea state today.
Large, steep waves will build in response to the increasing north
winds this weekend with hazardous waves peaking on Sunday and
gradually diminishing through early next week. A long period
southerly swell will build across the waters early next week
bringing minor impacts to south facing beaches and anchorages.
/KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Monday FOR
PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
259 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will take place over central California through at
least the middle of next week. Temperatures will be well above
normal by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough off the N CA coast continues to provide a
cool onshore flow with another day of below normal temperatures
across central California today. Some cumulus clouds developing
along the nearby mountains of the central valley due to a front
with mid and upper level moisture draped over N CA. The high
resolution NAM model shows some of the moisture along the front
pushing south and pooling towards the west side of the south
valley late tonight. Some lower clouds may develop over W Kern
county early saturday morning.
The upper level trough will exit through NE CA late Saturday
allowing for subtle warming to take place. This will allow for a
ridge across the Sonoran desert to start building West bringing a
significant warming during the second half of the weekend into the
first half of next week.
The upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify north over
the four corners region Sunday then expand West over Southern and
Central California Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday may be the warmest
day of next week, with San Joaquin Valley and foothill temperatures
warming to 100 to 106 degrees. A few locations in the desert could
see temperatures in the 110 to 115 degree range. These temperatures
are between 10 and 15 degrees above normal for the middle to end
of June.
NCEPs global ensemble is showing high predictability in the upper
level pattern through Tuesday, with lower predictability starting
Wednesday to the end of next week. In addition, NAEFS is showing
500 mb heights over the desert from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon in the 99 percentile. Concern this may be indicating a
prolonged period of a couple of days of well above normal
temperatures and lead to heat related illnesses. The highest heat
indices are progged over the Kern county desert area early next
week. A heat watch has been posted for the Mojave area and Indians
Wells Valley Monday through Wednesday.
By Wednesday, the operational GFS and ECMWF indicate an upper low
in the Gulf of Alaska moving slowly south along the British
Columbia coastline. This will allow 500 mb heights to slowly fall,
bringing a subtle cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday, with more
noticeable cooling on Friday.
The operational GFS indicates a surge of mid-level tropical
moisture Tuesday night into Thursday, with the possibility of
thunderstorms over the central and southern Sierra Nevada.
However, the ECMWF is keeping the region drier with the low
predictability in the upper level pattern according to NCEPs
global ensemble. Thus do not have a high degree of forecast
confidence with this feature at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the Central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening CAZ098-099.
&&
$$
public...MV
avn/fw...Rowe
prev discussion...Riley
synopsis...Rowe
weather.gov/hanford
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
224 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in
the northern mountains and valley this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Above average temperatures will return to NorCal
Sunday through next week.
.DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis during
the early afternoon indicated an upper level low pressure system
off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Moisture was streaming
into NorCal, and satellite imagery showed increasing cloud cover.
Radar returns showed scattered showers developing across the
northern valley and mountains.
Model forecasts are in good agreement with the upper level flow
pattern which keeps the upper low pressure off the Pacific
Northwest coast tonight and Saturday. As a result, shower and a
few thunderstorms are possible in the northern Sacramento Valley
and northern mountains through the early evening tonight. Showers
will continue overnight through Saturday morning.
The upper level low will begin to break down Sunday and showers
will exit the forecast area as a building ridge of high pressure
from the south influences the area. Temperatures will return to
near normal Sunday, while high temperatures Monday are expected to
reach up to 10 degrees above average in the mid to upper 90s. The
warming temperatures will bring a big temperature swing; high
temperatures will warm up by 20 to 25 degrees across the forecast
area.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure from the Desert SW extends towards NorCal early next
week resulting in max temps 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
portions of the Central Valley topping out around the century
mark. Models showing significant amount of higher level cloudiness
streaming into the area from the south Wednesday, which may
provide for a few degrees of cooling. Heights/thickness trend down
beyond midweek as upper ridging progresses, and Interior NorCal
becomes more influenced by offshore upper low/trough. As a result,
high temperatures are expected to lower to near or slightly above
normal by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
SWly flow alf with upr low off S OR cst. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs exc isold MVFR poss in shwrs omtns and N Sac Vly. Lcl S-SW
sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts ovr hyr trrn aftns/eves.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
222 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming
trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat
probable for parts of the area beginning Sunday. Some relief from
the heat is possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)
The two forecast problems of the day are for the weather near the
Scherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County and the heat wave expected
to start this Sunday. High-resolution model solutions continue to
suggest that Sundowner Winds will pick back up later this
afternoon and into the evening. Right now it looks like localized
gusts to 35-kts along Santa Barbara`s South Coast and up to
40-kts in the Santa Barbara mountains. Winds at the Refugio RAWS are
only about half that of yesterday`s as of 1 pm. Will continue to
monitor these winds closely and evaluate the necessity of an advisory
later this afternoon. The latest model solutions suggest weaker
Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but stronger winds
are possible again on Saturday afternoon and evening.
The advertised battle between the upper-level trough of low
pressure near the Pacific Northwest and the upper-level ridge of
high pressure over South Texas seems to have been won by the
ridge in our forecast area as there is little to no cloud cover
anywhere to be seen. This ridge should expand and build westward
into New Mexico through Saturday. As it does the 500-mb heights
will rise and the 1000-500 mb thickness values will climb as
onshore pressure gradients weaken. In light of this, the best
chance of marine layer stratus clouds will occur through tonight
on the San Luis Obispo central coast, then it will become hard-
pressed to get any low cloud formation.
The strong ridging aloft builds into the region even more on
Sunday as the heat wave event begins. GFS model solutions
continue to offer up near record temperatures across the region,
with the exception of the immediate coastal areas.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous levels Monday and
Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal cooling taking place in
the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat Watch for will remain in
place. There is a chance that this heatwave could the warmest
June event in over a decade with widespread record heat occurring
on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest a 30
year return interval for low levels heights and temperatures
across the region.
Model solutions for for Tuesday through next Thursday develop a
southeast flow aloft. A monsoonal-like surge could develop after
Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions with
some elevated moisture now added into latter half of next week. An
isolated afternoon thunderstorm is not impossible beginning
Wednesday, but certainly not likely as it looks to remain dry at
the lower levels.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1800Z.
Mid/upper level trough of low pressure upstream will persist while
a ridge of high pressure centered south of the area shifts north.
Upper level moderate southwest winds will become strong southwest
after 17/00z while mid level moderate west-southwest winds
becoming light south after 17/17z over the area. Weak to moderate
onshore pressure gradient through 17/05z and after 17/20z
otherwise weak northerly gradient. Weak capping marine inversion
at LAX with isolated cloud field south of the area will change
little Friday.
Marine layer at LAX at 1500Z is 2338 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 3523 feet with a temp of 12.8 degrees C.
KLAX...chance current sky/vsby conditions will persist through
period.
KBUR...Very likely current sky/vsby will persist through the
period.
virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...16/200 PM.
Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to
San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa
Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight
and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night
and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds
will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and
small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will
build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below
10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is
expected during the remainder of this week and the swells
generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220
will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next
Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are
not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south
facing shores are likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...JLD
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into
Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of
Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and
Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with
potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place
until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening
into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak
gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain
hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on
the larger lakes could reach 3 feet.
Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and
Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest
simulations push one final wave across northern California and
northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best
chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch
of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow
levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow
impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen
National Park.
Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower
80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra
will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in
the Sierra valleys. Brong
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of
high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb
to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the
Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday
and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100
degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday,
with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning
Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are
expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by
Tuesday afternoon.
For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of
the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance.
These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up
reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would
develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance
favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection),
today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above
average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the
middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east,
limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly
near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look
rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add
any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days
especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the
ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs,
so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through
Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level
winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts
ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence
going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of
erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday
afternoon.
For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief
rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers
are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE
tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and
obscuration of higher peaks. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into
Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of
Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and
Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with
potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place
until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening
into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak
gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain
hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on
the larger lakes could reach 3 feet.
Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and
Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest
simulations push one final wave across northern California and
northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best
chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch
of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow
levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow
impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen
National Park.
Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower
80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra
will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in
the Sierra valleys. Brong
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of
high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb
to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the
Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday
and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100
degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday,
with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning
Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are
expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by
Tuesday afternoon.
For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of
the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance.
These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up
reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would
develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance
favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection),
today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above
average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the
middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east,
limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly
near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look
rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add
any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days
especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the
ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs,
so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through
Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level
winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts
ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence
going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of
erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday
afternoon.
For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief
rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers
are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE
tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and
obscuration of higher peaks. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
156 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will continue
to bring cooler than normal temperatures today through Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern valley this
afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Building high pressure will
bring a return of hot temperatures by mid week.
.DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis
indicated a broad upper level low system just off the coast of the
Pacific northwest, which is providing increased cloud cover and
cooler temperatures across the region. A dry slot moving into the
region kept showers and thunderstorms from developing, including
lower snow amounts in the northern Sierra.
Short term model forecasts had a tough time today with the dry
slot aloft, so nearly every model was erroneous with placement and
timing of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As a
result, the immediate short term forecast was a tough one.
Greatest chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are for
the northern mountains and northern valley locations today. Model
soundings and surface forecasts show dry air aloft that could
translate to surface wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms, if they
develop. Storm chances will continue through Friday and Saturday.
A building high pressure from the south will begin to influence
the NorCal area Sunday, and temperatures will return to near
normal in the low 90s in the valley and 60s and 70s for the higher
elevations.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Model guidance suggests an upper level ridge building across western U.S. early
next week. Daytime highs will likely range 10-15 degrees above
normal. The Tuesday- Thursday period looks to be the warmest of
the week, with widespread low 100s across the Valley. Residents
should remember to stay hydrated next week, given the potential
heat impacts.
IDM/JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours. The exception
will be brief MVFR/IFR periods in showers or thunderstorms,
generally over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains.
Showers will diminish tonight.
IDM/JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
145 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and seasonal weather, with only patchy marine layer clouds
and fog at best, will continue through Friday. A high pressure
ridge will strengthen this weekend and bring very hot weather
Sunday through at least early next week. High temperatures will
be well above normal, possibly breaking several records, with
Monday being the hottest day. A slow cooling trend is expected by
the middle of next week as the upper ridge weakens. Some monsoonal
moisture could bring an afternoon thunderstorm or two to the
mountains late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Visible satellite shows clear skies across Southern California,
while a large plume of smoke coming from a wildfire in Santa
Barbara can be seen moving over the waters and into portions of
the forecast area. A ridge starting to build over the region today
is producing higher temperatures today, with temperatures
currently 5-10 degrees higher than 24 hours ago across much of the
area.
Water vapor satellite currently shows a trough over the
Pacific Northwest and a ridge to our southeast, with upper
level southwest flow over us. Models are in very good agreement
with the ridge building to the northwest over the next several
days, resulting in increasingly warmer days and an increasingly
shallow marine layer. The weather heats up significantly on
Sunday, with highs reaching 10-20 degrees above normal. One
potential forecast difficulty for Sunday relates to the some
high clouds which the models show moving over the area that day.
Whether those potential clouds will be widespread and thick
enough to reduce temperatures remains to be seen. The ridge
axis appears to be peak over the four corners on Monday at 600
DM, with 597 DM 500 mb heights extending possibly to our coastal
areas. Also, Monday is when there could be some weak offshore flow
which would help bring hotter conditions to near the
immediate coast. Just how hot it gets at the immediate coast will
depend on if those offshore winds can make it to the coast early
enough before the sea breeze kicks in during the afternoon
bringing cooler ocean air inland. By Monday, the ridge should be
strong enough over the region to completely squash the marine
layer, but other than that day, some night and morning low
clouds/fog could occur at times at the beaches. Monday looks like
the overall hottest day of the heat wave, when max temperatures
reach 15-20, and almost 25 degrees above normal in some
locations. Looks like several daily high temperature records
could be broken on Sunday, and even more on Monday. In fact, a
couple stations may break all time high temperatures for the
month of June on Monday. Highs on Monday are currently forecast
to be in the mid-80s at the beaches and around 90 a few miles
inland. Further away from the coast in Orange and San Diego
counties, highs will be around 97 to 107, 105 to 115 in the Inland
Empire and high desert, mid 80s to upper 90s in the mountains, and
115 to 120 in the low deserts. The morning lows being higher than
normal will only exacerbate the problems with the heat, especially
in the lower deserts where morning lows may only fall to the
upper 80s/low 90s.
Temperatures are likely to lower a bit Tuesday west of the
mountains due to slight weakening of the ridge and some high level
moisture moving up through the area which could bring some cloud
cover to the region. However, it will still be quite hot for areas
away from the coast. It will remain hot through the rest of next
week, but likely not quite as hot as Sunday-Monday-Tuesday, as
the ridge continues to gradually weaken. This may allow a shallow
marine layer to re-develop, so cooling will mainly take place
along the coast and somewhat in the valleys, while mountain and
desert areas remain hot with 594 mb heights associated with the
ridge lingering over the forecast area through the end of the work
week. The Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to an Excessive
Heat Warning for all areas except the Orange and San Diego county
coasts.
With the ridge axis orienting itself northwest to southeast over
the four corners on Wednesday-Thursday, marginally moist
southeasterly flow aloft could result in afternoon thunderstorms
over the mountains both of those days. For now, have added slight
chance for showers/t-storms for a few high terrain locations for
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
162030Z...Coast/Valleys...Skc conds will continue through this
evening. Sct/Bkn low clouds will redevelop again tonight and push up
to 5 miles inland aft 17/0600z. Bases around 1000 FT MSL and tops
1500 FT MSL. These clouds are expected to be rather disorganized, so
have included a TEMPO group in the KSAN, KSNA,and KOKB TAFS. This
patchy stratus layer will dissipate by 17/1500z.
Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Friday. Gusty west winds 20-30 KT this afternoon again Friday
afternoon on desert mountain slopes, through the San Gorgonio Pass,
and into the northern Coachella Valley.
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM...Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 kts over the Outer Waters
through this evening.
No hazardous marine weather is expected Friday through Sunday.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 PM...A 4-foot, 17 second southerly swell will continue through
this evening, bringing elevated surf to local beaches. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect for Orange County for surf of 5 to 7 ft with
occasional sets to 9 ft and strong rip currents. In San Diego
County, the surf will be lower, so a Beach Hazards Statement will
continue in effect for surf of 3 to 6 feet, locally reaching 7 feet
at times with Strong longshore currents at the beaches as well.
The swell and surf will gradually lower Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys-
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for San
Diego County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Orange
County Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
144 PM MST THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The large Pacific low pressure system along the west coast that had
kept afternoon temperatures below normal for the past six days will
weaken today. As a result, a high pressure system will slowly build
over the region through Friday, then intensify Saturday through next
week. Record high temperatures and dangerous high heat Sunday
through Wednesday has prompted the issuance of an excessive Heat
Warning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONUS satellite imagery this early afternoon depicts a broad area of
high pressure building over the Plains and into the central Canadian
provinces. High pressure will strengthen and expand so much so it
will begin to retrograde and build back towards the
Southwest/Intermountain West states by the late weekend and early
next week. This due to anomalously strong trough heights over the
western Atlantic and East Coast. But for today and Friday, gradually
increasing ML/UL heights will promote a subtle warm-up, with
seasonable temperatures and some afternoon breeziness. With weak
surface pressure gradients, winds will follow fairly typical
terrain-driven diurnal headings. Easterly down drainage winds (in
particular the Salt River drainage) from the higher terrain
northeast/east of Phoenix will allow some smoke from the Cedar Creek
Fire, located southwest of Show Low, to make its way into the Valley.
Included mention of patchy smoke through portions of the East and
North Phx Valleys as well as the valleys of southern Gila county for
Friday and Saturday mornings.
Saturday through Wednesday...
The expanding high pressure system over the region will build to
levels not seen in a while, meaning record heat especially Sunday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will make a very drastic upward
swing, warming 15 to 20 degrees over readings from the last few days.
Athough Saturday will be hot on the south central AZ deserts and
mountains, afternoon temperatures were marginal for a heat warning,
and considerable high cloudiness forecast may result in slightly
lower temperatures readings. In fact, this area of cloudiness will be
some moisture advection through the mid and upper levels from an
area of potential tropical development off the Manzanillo coast
currently. Strong subsident ridge flow will remain over much of the
southern CONUS into next week, maintaining concern for a long
duration heat event for many in the lower desert locations. One
caveat though, models are forecasting increasing low level moisture
from Mexico late Mon through Wed. 850 mb dewpoints are forecast to go
positive this period under increasing south winds. Increasing
humidities may limit the upper end of the diurnal curve, while also
boosting the lower end and making for some warm overnight lows.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on Aug 27 1981
5) 118 on several days 120 on June 24 1957
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry southwesterly flow will keep skies clear through the period.
Winds will follow normal diurnal directional trends, remaining on
the lighter side around 5 to 10 mph, with a few afternoon gusts
up to 20 mph over KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Very hot temperatures will persist across the region, with the
hottest days on Sunday and Monday, with lower desert temperatures
rising into the 115-120 degrees. Although winds will remain on the
light side on Sunday and Monday, very dry conditions (minimum
humidities in the mid to upper single digits) with fair to poor
overnight recoveries, and Haines Index values between 5 and 6 will
result in elevated fire danger levels. Tuesday through Thursday, a
slight increase in humidities (in the upper single-digit to mid-teen
range) along with slightly cooler temperatures will help to reduce
the fire danger levels.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ020>028.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday
for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/Vasquez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1106 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this
morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be
possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is
already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay.
However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now
down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty
widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep
most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and
near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain
chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north
of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly
in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few
isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary
tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but
something to keep an eye on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 11:00 AM PDT Thursday...Based off of the latest
models plus radar, newest TAF package has shra/VCSH removed from
all spots except STS. Winds still forecast to generally become 230
to 260 after 20Z with speeds under 12 KT. Tonight is a more
difficult call with MVFR possibly returning although not very
confident about the heights. High confidence through 06Z with low
to moderate confidence after that.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the day with possible MVFR
returning after 06Z. Winds generally 230 to 260 today and under 10
KT. High confidence through 05Z. Low to moderate after that.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the day with possible MVFR
returning after 03Z. Winds generally 250 to 280 with speeds up to
10 KT. High confidence through 03Z. Low to moderate confidence
after that.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:53 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low
pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the
day along with a few showers. the winds will switch to the
northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. seas are
expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
however...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. the surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Bell
MARINE: Bell
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
922 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming
trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat
probable for parts of the area beginning Sunday. Some relief from
the heat is possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)
Gusty northerly winds continue across the area where the Scherpa
Fire is burning, especially west of Goleta to Gaviota. 8am
observation from Refugio RAWS had northerly winds of 27 mph with
gusts to 38. High-resolution model solutions suggest winds will
continue to weaken throughout the morning but pick back up around
2pm this afternoon. Another round of gusty Sundowner Winds is
forecast for this afternoon and tonight although it looks to be at
least 7 mph weaker than last night`s. Will evaluate another Wind
Advisory for the area as the afternoon approaches.
*** From Previous Discussion ***
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a battle is
waged between an upper-level trough of low pressure off the
Pacific Northwest Coast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure
over South Texas. Some clouds associated with the trough`s
weakening cold front are off the Central Coast this morning, but
the ridge`s influence should start to win out keep most of the
clouds and moisture north of the area in Monterey County.
Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend as the high pressure
system over South Texas expands and builds westward into New
Mexico through Saturday. 500 mb heights rise and 1000-500 mb
thickness values climb through the end of the week as onshore
pressure gradients weaken. The marine layer depth will thin
progressively into Saturday. The best chance of marine layer
stratus clouds will occur through tonight, then it will become
hard-pressed to get any low cloud formation. Temperatures have
been nudged slightly higher for Friday and Saturday as model
solutions are warming the air mass slightly in the lower levels
of the atmosphere.
A northerly surface gradient will remain in place and bring
locally gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across
Southern Santa Barbara County. The latest model solutions suggest
slightly weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but
stronger winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM
BUFR time height sections are falling inline with this idea
suggesting the strongest wind core just off the surface of KSBA on
Saturday evening. While Friday`s winds look marginal, a Wind
Advisory may be needed for Saturday afternoon and night when the
timing and run-to-run consistency issues clear.
.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)
Strong ridging aloft builds into the region on Sunday and Monday.
GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures
across the region. Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous
levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal
cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat
Watch will remain in place for now. Temperatures were nudged
higher from Sunday through Tuesday to bring the forecast a tad
more inline with local temperature studies. If GFS solutions play
out as progged, this will likely be the warmest June heatwave in
almost a decade. There is a chance that this heatwave could the
warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat
occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions
suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and
temperatures across the region.
A little less clarity exists for Tuesday through next Thursday as
model solutions start to develop a southeast flow aloft for
middle portion of next week. A monsoonal surge could develop
after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions
with humidity now added into latter half of next week. To pay
more attention to the short-term impacts with the Scherpa Fire and
the hot conditions through the weekend, the latter half of next
week was broad-brushed for now to allow for better timing and
clarity.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1220Z.
At 12Z, a weak marine inversion at KLAX was around 3500 ft deep.
The top of the inversion was around 4600 ft with a temperature
near 14 degrees Celsius.
moderate confidence with vfr conds this morning in most
areas...but less confidence for cigs tonight. Kept skies mostly
VFR overnight...but should see some mvfr or high IFR cigs late
tonight for LA coastal areas. Less confident for coastal valleys
and Central Coast.
KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions between
09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Any east
winds should remain less than 6 knots.
KBUR...high confidence in 12z taf. 30 percent chance for high
ifr/low mvfr cigs after 10z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...16/900 AM.
Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to
San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa
Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight
and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night
and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds
will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and
small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will
build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below
10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is
expected during the remainder of this week and the swells
generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220
will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next
Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are
not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south
facing shores are likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Friday For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...JLD
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
901 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this
morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be
possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is
already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay.
However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now
down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty
widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep
most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and
near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain
chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north
of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly
in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few
isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary
tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but
something to keep an eye on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are
streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the
possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north,
the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today
with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from
2100z into the afternoon hours.
Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds.
Confidence is low for shower activity.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt.
Confidence is high.
&&
.MARINE...as of 08:47 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low
pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the
day along with a few showers. The winds will switch to the
northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. Seas are
expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Bell
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
533 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. A warming trend will
develop through the weekend with dangerous heat possible for
parts of the area early next week. Some relief from the heat is
possible by the middle of next week as high pressure weakens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)
A tight pressure gradient remains across Southern Santa Barbara
early this morning. Gusty northerly winds continue across the
area where the Scherpa Fire is burning, especially west of Goleta
to Gaviota. High-resolution model solutions suggest winds
slacking off some around daybreak this morning. Another round of
gusty Sundowner Winds is forecast for this afternoon and tonight.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect across Southern Santa Barbara
County until 6 AM PDT. A Wind Advisory may need to be reissued by
the next shift to get a better handle on the finer details for
this afternoon and tonight.
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a battle is
waged between an upper-level trough of low pressure off the
Pacific Northwest Coast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure
over South Texas. Some clouds associated with the trough`s
weakening cold front are off the Central Coast this morning, but
the ridge`s influence should start to win out keep most of the
clouds and moisture north of the area in Monterey County.
Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend as the high pressure
system over South Texas expands and builds westward into New
Mexico through Saturday. 500 mb heights rise and 1000-500 mb
thickness values climb through the end of the week as onshore
pressure gradients weaken. The marine layer depth will thin
progressively into Saturday. The best chance of marine layer
stratus clouds will occur through tonight, then it will become
hard-pressed to get any low cloud formation. Temperatures have
been nudged slightly higher for Friday and Saturday as model
solutions are warming the air mass slightly in the lower levels
of the atmosphere.
A northerly surface gradient will remain in place and bring
locally gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across
Southern Santa Barbara County. The latest model solutions suggest
slightly weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but
stronger winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM
BUFR time height sections are falling inline with this idea
suggesting the strongest wind core just off the surface of KSBA on
Saturday evening. While Friday`s winds look marginal, a Wind
Advisory may be needed for Saturday afternoon and night when the
timing and run-to-run consistency issues clear.
.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)
Strong ridging aloft builds into the region on Sunday and Monday.
GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures
across the region. Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous
levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal
cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat
Watch will remain in place for now. Temperatures were nudged
higher from Sunday through Tuesday to bring the forecast a tad
more inline with local temperature studies. If GFS solutions play
out as progged, this will likely be the warmest June heatwave in
almost a decade. There is a chance that this heatwave could the
warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat
occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions
suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and
temperatures across the region.
A little less clarity exists for Tuesday through next Thursday as
model solutions start to develop a southeast flow aloft for
middle portion of next week. A monsoonal surge could develop
after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions
with humidity now added into latter half of next week. To pay
more attention to the short-term impacts with the Scherpa Fire and
the hot conditions through the weekend, the latter half of next
week was broad-brushed for now to allow for better timing and
clarity.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1220Z.
At 12Z, a weak marine inversion at KLAX was around 3500 ft deep.
The top of the inversion was around 4600 ft with a temperature
near 14 degrees Celsius.
moderate confidence with vfr conds this morning in most
areas...but less confidence for cigs tonight. Kept skies mostly
VFR overnight...but should see some mvfr or high IFR cigs late
tonight for LA coastal areas. Less confident for coastal valleys
and Central Coast.
KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions between
09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Any east
winds should remain less than 6 knots.
KBUR...high confidence in 12z taf. 30 percent chance for high
ifr/low mvfr cigs after 10z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...16/500 AM
SCA level winds will continue across the outer waters from Point
Sal to San Nicolas Island through late tonight or early Friday
morning. There will be SCA level wind gusts across the western
portion of the SBA western Channel. There could be some smoke over
the channel as well from the Scherpa Fire. Expect gusty NW winds
across the western portion of the channel each afternoon and
evening hours through this weekend and into early next week. A
long period southerly 3-4 ft swell generated from the Southern
Pacific will continue across the coastal waters today and likely
into Friday. Not anticipating any Small Craft for Hazardous Seas
through this weekend.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning For zones
39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Friday For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
450 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...Satellite imagery is
showing mostly clear skies across the southern half if the CWA
with increasing clouds over the northern zones. These increasing
clouds are with the approaching upper low and associated frontal
system. Latest model guidance mainly brings in the rain a little
later today, and also has less rainfall compared with 12Z run
totals. Although, the North Bay is still expected to get the bulk
of the shower activity, rainfall amounts are now progged at under
1/2 inch. Not much is expected south of the Golden Gate, with a
few hundredths of an inch at the most generally just along the
coast. Showers could hang on a little longer, into Friday, per the
latest Nam12, but all activity will remain over the north bay. The
upper low is then forecast to finally move to the east on
Saturday.
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are
streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the
possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north,
the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today
with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from
2100z into the afternoon hours.
Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds.
Confidence is low for shower activity.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt.
Confidence is high.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:40 AM PDT Thursday...Southerly winds are
expected today as a low pressure system approaches the Central
California coast. This low pressure system will also bring the
possibility of showers to the coastal waters. Winds will become
northwest on Thursday as the low pressure system moves inland.
Seas are expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on Saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry
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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
435 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will bring cooler temperatures and
and scattered showers to northwest California through Saturday.
A building ridge of high pressure will bring a warming trend
beginning Sunday with hot and dry weather across the interior
expected to last through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Shower activity was fairly widespread late last
night but estimated rainfall rates were actually quite low. Areas
north of hwy 299 have range from 0.02 to 0.06 inches while
southern Humboldt saw some higher amounts ranging from 0.10 to
0.20 inches. As of 330am shower activity is diminishing in
coverage and intensity...however the region may see another small
spike in activity later today with some support from added surface
heating. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast
just do to the proximety of the upper low however, as was
mentioned in previous discussions, traditional convective
parameters are not impressive thus confidence remains low. Moving
into the weekend the trough will lift northward allowing a
formidable upper level ridge to build across NW CA from the
southwest. This will cause a warming trend to begin on Sunday with
generally hot temperatures across the interior Monday through at
least Thursday. Heights at H5 should range from 591 to 594DM which
should translate to max temperatures well into the lower 100s for
most of our hotter interior valley spots. At this time any
offshore flow associated with the ridge looks light but will also
contribute to some warm interior nights during the hot spell.
&&
.AVIATION...Instability associated with a trough offshore will
bring scattered shower activity as well as periodic MVFR ceilings
to the aerodromes this morning. The shower activity will spike up
again this afternoon and periodic MVFR conditions in showers may
continue to affect KCEC, KACV and KUKI through this evening. Winds
will remain light and variable through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...A weak low offshore will maintain light wind fields over
the coastal waters through Friday. Light southerly flow with a weak
trough this morning should gradually become light westerly this
afternoon and then light northerly overnight. The models continue to
indicate weak low pressure meandering about offshore on Friday and
suspect winds will remain light and varible before becoming
northerly Friday night. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will
slowly build toward the coast Sat and Sun. Northerly winds offshore
will be on the increase during this frame. The potential for low end
or marginal Gales will enter the picture on Sunday and Monday,
primarily in the outer waters north of Cape Mendocino. Confidence is
slightly above average with both the GFS and ECMWF indicating north
winds in the 20-30 kt range on Sunday. Winds inside 10nm will be a
bit more tricky. Current indications are for winds to be light to
moderate. There is a chance for small scale eddy development by
Monday. Even the ARW and HRRR typically are not able to forecast
development of these localized nearshore wind reversals.
Seas will remain mixed through Friday. A long period SOUTHERLY SWELL
from the southern hemisphere will continue to combine with a short
period NW SWELL from the northeast Pacific. The short period NW
SWELL will continue to gradually subside today through Fri, while
the long period southerly groups hold steady. Short period wave
energy will slowly increase over the weekend in response to the
building northerly flow offshore. Expect seas to become elevated and
hazardous Sun into Mon.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Upper ridge currently centered over western KS, which where the
thermal ridge resides. At the surface there is an expensive high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. On the western periphery of
that high is the remnants of a cold front that swept through the
Midwest yesterday and overnight. Ahead of that boundary dew points
have been pooling with values reaching 80 degrees. Day time mixing
has not lowered the dew points much due to the depth of the moisture
in the lowest levels. Therefore with temperatures reaching the mid
to upper 90s the heat indices have reached 110 mainly in northeast
KS. Across central KS the moisture is less deep and therefore dew
points have mixed into the 60s. This has caused the heat indices to
still reach 105 to 110 at those locations. There is still a slight
chance that the cap could break on the western edge of the moisture
although the forcing is fairly weak with the lack of overall
convergence. If that were to occur there would be the possibility of
large hail and damaging wind. Mlcape is over 3000 j/kg and the LCL
heights are rather high.
Tonight storms are expected to develop along a front in far
northwest KS and central NE. These storms will try to reach central
KS late this evening, but the chances are low at this point. As
these storms approach the area instability will decrease, but a few
storms may still be capable of hail and gusty wind mainly across
north central KS during the early morning hours. As of now the
chances for storms tomorrow are low, but what happens overnight will
ultimately determine that. The potential MCS that moves through
western KS could develop an MCV, and or outflow that redevelops
convection in our area. The models are also hinting at another MCS
in northeast NE that moves southward towards KS, and same concept
applies. The nested NAM and WRF solutions were showing showers and
storms trying to form tomorrow during the day, things will be more
clear tonight after things form. forecast soundings show that most
locations will have a strong cap in place tomorrow afternoon, so did
not increase pops much at all. One thing more certain is that the
east to southeast flow in the low levels will lower the temperatures
and dew points across the area. Also, any cloud cover or
precipitation will cause cooler temperatures. Therefore heat indices
are expected to range from 90 to 95 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Saturday night through much of Monday look to have a good chance
of remaining dry as the upper ridge strengthens again while the
boundary layer airmass remains on the drier side by the assistance
of the Great Lakes surface high. This slightly drier low level
air should also keep heat indices below the critical thresholds
for heat advisories but it will be close as temperatures will
likely climb at least into the mid 90s with dewpoints increasing
back closer to 70.
By early next week, a series of short wave troughs riding along
the Canadian border will take a slight southward shift over the
Great Lakes and appear likely to push a cold front into the local
area. The timing of this front will impact our local weather, and
it seems likely to come close enough to northern KS to warrant
slight chances for thunderstorms late Monday. Expect a cap to be
in place but any frontal convergence may be sufficient to overcome
the cap in the immediate vicinity of the front.
It looks like the front will surge a bit farther south on Tuesday,
and thus Tuesday into Tuesday evening may provide the best chance
for storms in the forecast period...although again dependent upon
where the front sets up. Where thunderstorms do develop, expect
sufficient shear and instability for storm organization with a
non-zero severe weather threat.
Beyond Tuesday night through the rest of the week, the forecast
will depend largely on the location of the upper high. Some
guidance builds it more firmly overhead while another suite of
model guidance puts eastern KS in the transition zone which could
be a focus for weak upper disturbances and occasional MCS
activity. Do expect hot conditions through this period, but again
the magnitude of the heat will be greater if the ridge can build
more strongly overhead and confidence is on the low end regarding
this evolution at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
For the 00Z TAFs, have not inserted VCTS at KMHK as confidence is
low that storms work into the forecast area near the terminal. If
storms out west do actually show more development or movement east
then this may be possible but probably between the 6-9Z time frame
if at all before the atmosphere stabilizes more fully. Considering
that some morning fog may be possible for the KTOP/KFOE terminals,
but again confidence too low for now.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Isolated storms are anticipated late this afternoon/evening within
another moist/uncapped pbl. H925-H85 morning map analysis suggested
that limited mixing of the afternoon dewpoint will occur leading to
higher mlcapes as well as higher heat indices across central KS and
a heat advisory was issued for Barton and Russell counties. Other
storms developing over northwest KS ahead of a subtle wave lifting
over the Rockies may propagate toward central/south central KS this
evening and tonight....but slow storm motions may keep much of the
activity west of the area. Any storm that can propagate into the
area cold become severe and maintained a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook. H85 ridging over the Ohio Valley area should allow
drier air to advect over the Central Plains states through the
weekend while H7 temperatures are progged to rise resulting in an
increasing cap strength and decreasing chances for precipitation.
The good news is that afternoon humidities will drop keeping heat
indices a bit lower.
Monday...A shortwave trough moving over Manitoba/Ontario will drive
a cold front south over the Northern/Central Plains states late Mon.
The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF slowing the frontal surge on
Monday keeping it stalled near I-80.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A diffuse front may arrive Tuesday bringing increasing chances
for showers and storms. The next challenge will be how fast the
mid/upper ridge builds back over the Central Conus. The GFS keeps
the ridge southwest of the area allowing a NW flow regime to
impact the region while the ECMWF is much faster building the
ridge back over the area. Maintained low pops in the Tue-Wed
periods while trending warmer and dry toward the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Numerous thunderstorms continue to develop over Northwest Kansas
southeast towards Central Kansas. Some of this activity will
spread into Central Kansas tonight. We could see some light fog
again over Southeast Kansas around daybreak. Otherwise expecting
easterly winds and VFR conditions to prevail for all TAF sites
there after on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 96 72 97 / 20 10 0 0
Hutchinson 72 97 70 98 / 20 10 10 0
Newton 73 96 69 97 / 20 10 0 0
ElDorado 73 95 69 96 / 20 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 72 95 71 95 / 20 10 0 0
Russell 71 98 71 100 / 40 10 10 0
Great Bend 71 98 71 99 / 40 10 10 0
Salina 71 96 70 99 / 20 10 10 0
McPherson 72 96 70 98 / 20 10 10 0
Coffeyville 74 93 69 94 / 20 10 0 0
Chanute 72 93 68 95 / 20 10 0 0
Iola 72 92 68 95 / 20 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 73 93 70 95 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-
048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.
Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
For KGLD, vfr conditions currently expected through the period.
Will have to watch the next several hours as thunderstorm outflow
has just moved south across the area. This may spark thunderstorm
development near or over the terminal. Heavy rain and gusty winds
the primary threats but large hail cant be ruled out. After
midnight or so thunderstorm coverage expected to dissipate with
winds gradually becoming south/southeasterly and increasing in
speed during Saturday afternoon where gusts in the 25 to 30 mph
range possible.
For KMCK, scattered to numerous thunderstorms producing gusty
winds to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall producing ifr
visibilities possible through midnight or so before dissipating in
areal coverage. During the overnight hours into Saturday winds
gradually become east then southeast. Wind gusts in the 20-25kt
range possible at the very end of the taf period.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
The mid-level ridge remained anchored across the central U.S., with
southerly surface winds in place as the CWA was wedged between low
pressure to the west and high pressure to the southeast. Some cloud
cover lingered across far east central Kansas due to the
precipitation from the morning MCV. As a result, afternoon
temperatures there were a few degrees cooler than originally
forecast, but readings reached near 100 degrees across north central
Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat
indices ranged from the mid 90s east to 100-105 degrees across north
central and central Kansas. A weak convergence zone was noted in
northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, with visible satellite
showing some shallow cumulus popping up. With some isentropic lift
present on the 310K surface, the HRRR and RAP show the potential for
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up across southeast
Kansas late this afternoon into this evening, and this activity may
extend northward into east central Kansas. As a result, have added
slight chance PoPs. Mesoscale analysis showed little to no cap in
place with 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, so if storms are
able to develop they may be strong. However, wind shear continues to
look weak at 20kts or less so it should be difficult for storms to
sustain themselves for long. The main hazards with any strong storms
would be hail and gusty winds.
With the ridge still in place, expect another hot day tomorrow.
However, models show 850mb temperatures being slightly cooler
compared to today. As a result, have Friday high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler across north central/central Kansas with
readings expected to range from the mid 90s east to the upper 90s
west. Models are still showing dewpoints reaching into the upper
60s to low/mid 70s, which would push afternoon heat indices into the
103 to 108 degree range. As a result, the Excessive Heat Watch for
Friday has been upgraded to a Heat Advisory for the entire outlook
area. A somewhat stationary boundary may be in place across central
Kansas by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This nearby boundary
combined with an embedded shortwave within the mid-level ridge
across north central Kansas may help to produce some scattered
storms by mid to late afternoon. Due to the low confidence in the
timing and location of any storms, only have slight chance PoPs at
this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Friday Night through Sunday...
Friday evening and overnight provides an interesting low-probability
setup with potential for thunderstorm development across parts of
the area. Expect extreme mid level lapse rates across the entire
region, but the location and extent of instability will depend on
quality of low level moisture. Right now this appears to be better
focused to the southwest, or at least over SW parts of the forecast
area with a pretty good MUCAPE gradient increasing from NE to SW
across the region. There are signs of convergent flow in the low
levels and on a weak low level jet during the evening and overnight
hours from NW into central and SE Kansas and this added moisture
convergence could be sufficient for thunderstorm development in the
evening. Furthermore, there is upslope flow focused into NE Colorado
and SE Nebraska and if this allows convection to grow upscale and
organize a cold pool in this area, could see it propagating along
the convergence zone toward central KS. Again, this is low
probability, but there is a chance for either or both scenarios to
play out through Friday night.
Saturday looks to be slightly cooler with flow from the southeast
being a bit cooler although with neutral or slight moisture
advection. Have also forecast a bit cooler due to potential for some
cloud debris during the day as well. Current forecast is for heat
indices to a bit lower but still have some potential to be quite hot
if staying clear and/or higher dewpoints. With the excessive heat
watch already in effect, will maintain it as-is through Sunday as
things look a bit warmer yet for Sunday and with a much better
chance of being capped off to convection and precipitation and cloud
free.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Monday appears to be the warmest day within the extended period with
high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indicies approaching
100. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, knocking high temperatures back
into the upper 80s to near 90. Thunderstorm chances also return with
the frontal passage. Model guidance suggests slight thunderstorm
chances will be continue through the remainder of the period as an
upper level trough across the Great Lakes region skirts the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with winds prevailing out of the south-southeast. There may be a
few wind gusts near 20kts early this afternoon at KMHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
MCV continues to slowly move eastward across the southern portion of
the forecast area. Light showers continue, as do strong winds on
the north side of the low where dissipating/evaporating showers are
likely contributing to the broad area of 30-45mph wind gusts on the
north side of the low. This has also kept temperatures up in the 80s
in areas where the winds are occurring. Expect this to move off to
the east over the next several hours. Will leave some morning cloud
cover and likely some residual surface boundaries over the area, but
with lack of a lifting mechanism to break the cap, and an upper
ridge moving overhead by mid afternoon, will keep forecast dry at
this time. High temperatures expected to reach upper 90s east to
near 102 out west, and the heat advisory continues. Overnight lows
also look to stay warm in the middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Models continue to show at least minor potential for convection to
impact the area Friday into Saturday. Appears overnight convection
tonight along the weak boundary will remain to the northeast, though
can`t rule out outflow pushing southwest into the area late in the
night. More likely scenario for precip is development occurring to
the northwest along inverted trough axis where cap will be the
weakest. This activity could reach the area in the late afternoon --
when peak heating/heat index values would be anticipated. Along with
slight low level cooling and models` rather high afternoon
dewpoint bias in recent days, have decided to keep the Watch going
for Friday. Models are also similar with a weak PV anomaly
swinging southeast around the ridge into eastern Kansas Friday
night and could aid in convection persisting on through the area,
perhaps into Saturday. Bumped up pops a bit based on more
consistent precip signal. Some guidance keeps clouds rather
persistent through the day Saturday and could provide a break in
the excessive heat, but most guidance would push apparent temps
back to near Advisory levels, close enough to keep the Watch
going. South winds should return Sunday as the eastern surface
ridge moves off which brings higher temperature and dewpoint
potential, though just how much of either is uncertain. Monday
could bring another hot day as the weak cold front nears but much
too little confidence to extend the Watch. Most widespread precip
potential still comes Monday night into Tuesday night as the front
settles in.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
VFR prevails through forecast period with light southerly winds.
Will continue to monitor showers and thunder south of KTOP/KFOE.
All guidance keeps this activity away from developing. May peak
near 10 kts in the late afternoon but otherwise some diurnal
cumulus in the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday for
KSZ008>012-020>024-034.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Main concern continues to be hot and humid conditions for the next
few days, as mid level heights increase, as a large ridge builds
across the plains. As this ridge builds into the area, south-
southwest flow will lead to very warm temperatures across the region
for Today-Fri and possibly into Sat. Could see most of Central and
South Central KS make the century mark today, with KSLN and KRSL
possibly breaking record high temps (both 104 degrees). The summer
time temps arent the only issue, as surface dewpoints are expected
to remain in the low-mid 70s for areas east of I-135, this will lead
to heat index values climbing into the 107 to 110 range for this
afternoon (possibly into Fri as well). A Heat advisory has already
been issued for today for this dangerous combination of
heat/humidity for most of the region. Plan on extending the heat
advisory into Fri as well, but think the heat index values will be
slightly lower in the 103-106 range. also plan on keeping the
excessive heat watch in effect for the weekend, as the extended heat
tends to build up, which may lead to an excessive heat warning
needed for the weekend.
Not expecting a repeat of yesterday evenings convection, as mid
level temps will continue to increase across the forecast area, with
700h temps climbing to +15-16. The warm temps aloft will effectively
cap off any convection from developing. Latest NamNest (which
handled convection placement quite well yesterday) shows a weak
convergence area to the northeast of the forecast area, with main
axis of 180-200% precipitable water values located over ern Neb into
NE KS. This looks like the more favorable area for diurnally driven
isolated storms to erupt this afternoon given the max temps
forecast.
Plan on keeping Fri-Sun mostly dry for now as the ridge remains
across the area. Could see a few spurious/isolated storms develop on
Fri afternoon with the hot temperatures and high PWAT values across
the area. So could see an isolated storm mention added with later
forecasts. There is some model indications of some sort of complex
of storms may try to develop across NW MO on Friday night, and
possibly track south into SE KS by Sat morning. So will insert a
slight pop for SE KS for this chance.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
The hot and dry weather pattern will continue through the end of
weekend as models show the upper level ridging remaining quite
pronounced across the region. The upper level ridge looks to flatten
out and tighten the thermal/height gradient aloft across the
northern plains for the beginning of the week (Monday/Tuesday). This
pattern will push a frontal boundary slowly southward across
Nebraska into northern Kansas for early next week, which will bring
some relief from the very warm temperatures. Slow movement of this
front across the area for Mon night into Tue may lead to part of the
extended becoming more active when it comes to convection and
possibly convective storm complexes across the plains, given the
high instability expected to be located along or just south of this
boundary.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move slowly
southeast across the region overnight. Outflow winds from the
northwest will gradually veer around to the east then southeast
overnight. VFR conditions expected during the day on Thursday as
southerly winds increase.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 101 75 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 102 75 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 101 75 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
ElDorado 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 99 76 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 104 71 103 71 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 104 72 102 71 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 104 76 103 74 / 10 10 10 20
McPherson 103 75 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 20
Iola 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ048>053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening
for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Friday for
KSZ033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range
models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward
across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture
will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas
resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier
air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across
southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected
again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air
mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a
little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above
100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and
the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night.
In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of
moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely
pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in
central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward
of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting
the heat advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across central
Kansas late Friday afternoon and evening as medium range models
indicate a weak perturbation cycling east-southeast across the
axis of an upper level ridge building northeast across the
Central Plains. While this occurs, surface low pressure just lee
of the Rockies is projected to become more organized as it shifts
eastward into extreme western Kansas. With surface high pressure
remaining locked in across the Great Lakes, this will set up a
band of increased convergence across the plains of eastern Nebraska
and portions of northern Kansas. Considering the ample amount of
moisture/instability across the region, a few isolated thunderstorms
may develop across central Kansas late Friday afternoon as capping
weakens with chances possible through late Friday evening. However,
the potential for severe weather will remain hindered by a fairly
weak flow aloft. A dry and hot weather pattern is then expected to
persist through the weekend as an upper level high setting up
across the Desert Southwest builds northeast across the Western
High Plains.
High temperatures will likely reach near 100F again Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday with little change expected to the general
air mass across the high plains of western Kansas through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across
eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while
increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side
trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 69 101 69 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 100 63 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 100 62 100 63 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 100 66 102 66 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 102 69 103 70 / 10 10 10 10
P28 102 73 103 73 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range
models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward
across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture
will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas
resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier
air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across
southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected
again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air
mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a
little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above
100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and
the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night.
In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of
moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely
pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in
central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward
of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting
the heat advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The medium range models show the upper level ridge continuing to
build over the CONUS through the weekend into the first part of
next week. This will keep the region in a heat wave with high
temperatures up around 100 degrees through Monday. The 00z and 12z
runs of the GFS as well as the 12z ECMWF are both hinting at a
westward retrogression of the upper ridge around next Tuesday with
west northwest flow aloft developing over the central Plains.
Still a ways out but if this does develop we should see a frontal
boundary pushing perhaps as far south as Oklahoma which would
bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to western Kansas in
the upslope flow regime north of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across
eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while
increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side
trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 66 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 102 69 103 / 10 10 10 0
P28 70 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range
models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward
across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture
will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas
resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier
air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across
southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected
again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air
mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a
little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above
100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and
the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night.
In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of
moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely
pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in
central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward
of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting
the heat advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The medium range models show the upper level ridge continuing to
build over the CONUS through the weekend into the first part of
next week. This will keep the region in a heat wave with high
temperatures up around 100 degrees through Monday. The 00z and 12z
runs of the GFS as well as the 12z ECMWF are both hinting at a
westward retrogression of the upper ridge around next Tuesday with
west northwest flow aloft developing over the central Plains.
Still a ways out but if this does develop we should see a frontal
boundary pushing perhaps as far south as Oklahoma which would
bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to western Kansas in
the upslope flow regime north of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across
eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while
increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side
trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 66 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 102 69 103 / 10 10 10 0
P28 70 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across
the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from
Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region.
There is a weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a
weak ripple in the 500mb height field. Several surface troughs
are in place within the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest
Nebraska and a second orientated near Hays. Near both of these
features Cu fields have develop, but the more impressive updrafts
near the convergence zone near a Hays also correlated with
approximate location of upper level shortwave trough.
This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into
the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east
temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory
criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak
mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as
trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values
with further drops in Td`s expected.
Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far
eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and
decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends
keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept
thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only
model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east,
however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values
holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on
soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution
guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction
I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today
(if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F
once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index
values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief
period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is
low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with
slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next
week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure
throughout the period.
Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and
centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region.
On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert
southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area
Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of
Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this
time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before
advancing again on Saturday.
The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into
Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the
weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions
become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure
over the High Plains.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region
early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold
front sags south towards the area.
The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the
mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100
degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s
early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
winds will be gusty for a part of the overnight hours...the result
of outflow boundaries originating from thunderstorms in central
and eastern Kansas. They will subside a bit around sunrise before
increasing again from the southwest Thursday morning with deep
mixing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
The going forecast is largely on track, so all we did with this
update was increase wind speeds slightly in western ND and tweak
PoPs in north central ND through 15 UTC, both in respect to trends
in observational data. Storms are quickly exiting north central ND
into Canada, with little back-building due to increasing capping.
The window of opportunity for a strong storm in north central ND
early this morning is therefore starting to close.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm potential very late this afternoon through tonight is
the focus of this forecast release.
As of 08 UTC, storms are ongoing from northeast MT into northwest
ND on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet centered near 850 MB, per
overnight model guidance, including recent RAP runs. The elevated
convection is occurring on the edge of a northeastward-advancing
elevated mixed layer containing steep mid-level lapse rates. Thus
far the storms in northwest ND have been sub-severe, but there is
still a chance of a marginally-severe storm through early morning
as MUCAPE continues to increase and exceeds 1000 J/kg as far east
as Minot by 12 UTC. However, forecast soundings still suggest the
mid-level cap may limit activity further east, a notion supported
by recent experimental (ESRL-run) HRRR simulations.
The better part of today will be warm with increasing humidity in
most areas as a surface low in eastern MT this morning lifts north
into Canada and a trailing surface trough/weak cold front moves to
the east, reaching central ND by 00 UTC. Southerly flow in advance
of that wind shift/frontal zone is expected to tap into the pool
of higher dewpoints in central and eastern NEB early this morning.
The consensus of 00 UTC model guidance, including a bias-corrected
flavor of that output that we run in-house, supports surface dew-
points in the mid to upper 60s F over central ND by 00 UTC. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500
J/kg from mid afternoon into the evening. Convective initiation is
likely to hold off until very late afternoon at the earliest with
significant mid-level capping at the base of the elevated mixed
layer seen on model-forecast soundings, and neutral or even slight
positive tendencies in the 500 MB height fields before 00 UTC. We
thus held off on introducing low-end thunderstorm chances until 22
UTC, and even then only aligned them from Minot toward New Salem
along the most probable location of the surface wind shift. A few
00 UTC convection-allowing model simulations do suggest that area
could have incipient storm development by that time, though again
confidence is not that great in formation before evening. We have
increasing PoPs in the forecast post-00 UTC, especially along and
south of Interstate 94 and along and east of Highway 83, which is
when subtle mid-level height falls begin and in the area where 00
UTC guidance and more contemporary HRRR simulations suggest storm
coverage will be greatest.
We have chosen to explicitly mention the possibility of severe
thunderstorms in the gridded and text forecasts over central ND
from late this afternoon into the evening. The degree of MLCAPE
combined with moderate 0-6-km bulk wind differences (shear) from
30 to 40 kt supports organized, possibly supercellular storms with
a large hail and damaging wind threat. Applying the HAILCAST model
to the 00 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW supports peak hailstone sizes of 1.50
to 1.75 inches (ping pong to golf ball size) with the most intense
storms. Updraft helicity output from the 00 UTC SPC SSEO supports
organized storms, especially from Bismarck toward Jamestown during
the evening, but its peak values are not particularly high. That
may be a reflection of the somewhat modest deep-layer shear values
in place, and may suggest that while severe storms are probable, a
high-end or particularly intense event may not be likely. Finally,
precipitable water values in the pre-convective environment are in
the 1.40 inch range, supporting locally heavy rainfall with storms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend thanks to
a persistent southwest flow aloft on the northern side of a very
strong sub-tropical ridge centered over NM.
Taken at face value, the 00 UTC guidance (including the GFS, NAM,
and ECMWF) suggest that Friday daytime may be relatively dry with
weak height rises aloft in place across the region. However, that
set of models also all suggests that convection forming in MT may
reach western and central ND between 06 and 12 UTC Saturday when
elevated instability rapidly increases. This may pose some risk of
severe weather late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Then,
on Saturday afternoon and evening, the 00 UTC models show strong
instability with MLCAPE potentially reaching 3500 to 4000 J/kg in
parts of southwest and south central ND. The predictability of any
mid-level shortwave troughs embedded in the flow is relatively low
given their lack of amplitude, which suggests the timing and
location of convective development is uncertain. However, if the
00 UTC guidance is correct, the CAPE-shear setting may be one of
the most impressive we`ve seen thus far this year with 0-6-km bulk
wind differences exceeding 50 kt over a wide area. That could mean
a higher-end severe threat is possible, an idea supported by the
00 UTC CIPS analog guidance. Moreover, some guidance suggests that
a well-organized MCS could cross ND Saturday night. Again, there
is considerable uncertainty in any details surrounding this event,
but it will be one to watch in the coming days.
Thereafter, it appears that flow may turn more northwesterly for
a few days early next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and
a somewhat drier pattern Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail today and tonight. However,
a cold front moving through central ND may produce thunderstorms
after about 22 UTC. KBIS and KJMS have the highest probability of
impacts from thunderstorms with local MVFR or IFR conditions, so
the 12 UTC TAFs carried a VCTS this evening (and lasting until 09
UTC in the case of KJMS).
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
353 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm potential very late this afternoon through tonight is
the focus of this forecast release.
As of 08 UTC, storms are ongoing from northeast MT into northwest
ND on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet centered near 850 MB, per
overnight model guidance, including recent RAP runs. The elevated
convection is occurring on the edge of a northeastward-advancing
elevated mixed layer containing steep mid-level lapse rates. Thus
far the storms in northwest ND have been sub-severe, but there is
still a chance of a marginally-severe storm through early morning
as MUCAPE continues to increase and exceeds 1000 J/kg as far east
as Minot by 12 UTC. However, forecast soundings still suggest the
mid-level cap may limit activity further east, a notion supported
by recent experimental (ESRL-run) HRRR simulations.
The better part of today will be warm with increasing humidity in
most areas as a surface low in eastern MT this morning lifts north
into Canada and a trailing surface trough/weak cold front moves to
the east, reaching central ND by 00 UTC. Southerly flow in advance
of that wind shift/frontal zone is expected to tap into the pool
of higher dewpoints in central and eastern NEB early this morning.
The consensus of 00 UTC model guidance, including a bias-corrected
flavor of that output that we run in-house, supports surface dew-
points in the mid to upper 60s F over central ND by 00 UTC. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500
J/kg from mid afternoon into the evening. Convective initiation is
likely to hold off until very late afternoon at the earliest with
significant mid-level capping at the base of the elevated mixed
layer seen on model-forecast soundings, and neutral or even slight
positive tendencies in the 500 MB height fields before 00 UTC. We
thus held off on introducing low-end thunderstorm chances until 22
UTC, and even then only aligned them from Minot toward New Salem
along the most probable location of the surface wind shift. A few
00 UTC convection-allowing model simulations do suggest that area
could have incipient storm development by that time, though again
confidence is not that great in formation before evening. We have
increasing PoPs in the forecast post-00 UTC, especially along and
south of Interstate 94 and along and east of Highway 83, which is
when subtle mid-level height falls begin and in the area where 00
UTC guidance and more contemporary HRRR simulations suggest storm
coverage will be greatest.
We have chosen to explicitly mention the possibility of severe
thunderstorms in the gridded and text forecasts over central ND
from late this afternoon into the evening. The degree of MLCAPE
combined with moderate 0-6-km bulk wind differences (shear) from
30 to 40 kt supports organized, possibly supercellular storms with
a large hail and damaging wind threat. Applying the HAILCAST model
to the 00 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW supports peak hailstone sizes of 1.50
to 1.75 inches (ping pong to golf ball size) with the most intense
storms. Updraft helicity output from the 00 UTC SPC SSEO supports
organized storms, especially from Bismarck toward Jamestown during
the evening, but its peak values are not particularly high. That
may be a reflection of the somewhat modest deep-layer shear values
in place, and may suggest that while severe storms are probable, a
high-end or particularly intense event may not be likely. Finally,
precipitable water values in the pre-convective environment are in
the 1.40 inch range, supporting locally heavy rainfall with storms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend thanks to
a persistent southwest flow aloft on the northern side of a very
strong sub-tropical ridge centered over NM.
Taken at face value, the 00 UTC guidance (including the GFS, NAM,
and ECMWF) suggest that Friday daytime may be relatively dry with
weak height rises aloft in place across the region. However, that
set of models also all suggests that convection forming in MT may
reach western and central ND between 06 and 12 UTC Saturday when
elevated instability rapidly increases. This may pose some risk of
severe weather late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Then,
on Saturday afternoon and evening, the 00 UTC models show strong
instability with MLCAPE potentially reaching 3500 to 4000 J/kg in
parts of southwest and south central ND. The predictability of any
mid-level shortwave troughs embedded in the flow is relatively low
given their lack of amplitude, which suggests the timing and
location of convective development is uncertain. However, if the
00 UTC guidance is correct, the CAPE-shear setting may be one of
the most impressive we`ve seen thus far this year with 0-6-km bulk
wind differences exceeding 50 kt over a wide area. That could mean
a higher-end severe threat is possible, an idea supported by the
00 UTC CIPS analog guidance. Moreover, some guidance suggests that
a well-organized MCS could cross ND Saturday night. Again, there
is considerable uncertainty in any details surrounding this event,
but it will be one to watch in the coming days.
Thereafter, it appears that flow may turn more northwesterly for
a few days early next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and
a somewhat drier pattern Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Aviation concerns continue to be low level wind shear over the west
and central until about 16/13z, and the ongoing thunderstorms
over northwest into north central North Dakota until about 16/16z.
A strong low level jet coming into western / central North Dakota
from low pressure in eastern Montana will result in low level wind
shear until surface speeds increase by mid morning. On the storm
chances at KISN and KMOT, activity looks to be north of KISN and
uncertainty remains as to how far east, toward KMOT, it will
get. VFR at KDIK-KBIS-KJMS.
Storm development at KBIS and KJMS will be possible after 16/23z.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
104 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
There was little overall change with this update, but we did use a
consensus of high-resolution and statistical model guidance to
refresh hourly forecast fields through 18 UTC Thursday. If storms
in northeast MT maintain their current trajectory they will cut
across far northwest ND the next several hours. Forecast soundings
in northwest ND from the RAP and other guidance support some 1500
J/kg of MUCAPE and effective bulk wind shear over 40 KT, which is
consistent with a chance of large hail and possibly strong winds
from organized, elevated thunderstorms. The main uncertainty with
these storms is how far south they may build, especially further
east into north central ND, as mid-level capping will be on the
increase such that parcels will need to be lifted from about 700
MB to freely convect.
UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The trend so far tonight confirms the combination of a persistent
cap and a relatively weak shortwave trough is keeping the threat
of thunderstorms low this evening. The latest HRRR experimental
seems to be the best CAM model and it continues to delay the threat
of thunderstorms over the far northwest until after midnight
then spreading into the far north central by sunrise. Current
forecast has this trend and will not make changes other than to
update current conditions.
UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
While the short term convective allowing models, particularly the
HRRR, continue to show convective initiation across southeast
Montana through northwest South Dakota already by late afternoon
today, the current trends have not verified this. Will continue to
monitor the short term trends but do not see enough information to
add scattered showers/thunderstorms to the forecast this early and
that far south. Current forecast will be allowed to continue with
only current weather conditions updated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Elevated thunderstorm potential in the far northwest is the main
highlight tonight with an isolated severe potential. Late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms central Thursday is the next
concern, with these thunderstorms capable of reaching severe
criteria.
The latest water vapor imagery shows western North Dakota falling
into more of a dominate southwest/active flow, as successive
shortwaves emanating around a closed upper low from Alberta back
into the Pacific northwest.
A shortwave over western Wyoming and an associated surface low is
forecast to lift north overnight, located near Wolf Point Montana
by 12 UTC Thursday. This might possibly affect northwest ND
between 06-12 UTC with a threat for elevated strong to severe
thunderstorms. At least through 06z, the latest CAMs keep the
thunderstorms confined to eastern Montana. Thereafter a couple
high resolution models develop isolated convection into the far
northwest. Soundings show an increasing 850mb southerly low level
jet to 50kt-55kt across western ND. The level of free convection
is up around 10kft in northwest ND, thus any thunderstorms that
develop will be high based in nature capable of large hail and
damaging winds. Chances for thunderstorms advance into north
central ND by 12 UTC Thursday before weakening by mid to late
morning. The rest of western and central ND will remain dry
tonight into most of Thursday afternoon.
On Thursday, the surface low ejects to near Williston by early afternoon
then shifts into southern Saskatchewan. This will drag a cold
front into the northwest ND mid to late Thursday afternoon, then
into central ND Thursday evening. There is increasing potential
for thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front late afternoon
through Thursday evening especially in central ND. NAM/GFS Bufkit
soundings across central ND mid to late Thursday afternoon show
increasing instability as moisture advection/dewpoints rise into
the mid 60s. The elevated mixed layer also shows signs of
shrinking as winds turn from southerly to westerly within the
layer, with a resultant period of cold air advection. For the
Bismarck and Minot forecast NAM/GFS soundings, the mixed layer
cape between 21-00 UTC is advertised at 2500-3500 J/Kg along with
0-6km shear of 35-45kt. 850mb equivalent potential temperature
axis of 352K sets up over south central ND, between Bismarck and
Jamestown, which noses into the Turtle Mountains 21-00 UTC Thursday.
With the surface cold front/wind shift in close proximity to the
theta-e axis, would expect this to be the initiating point for
thunderstorms. SPC currently has all but the west in a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms. With increased low level instability,
and the erosion of the capping layer, the potential for tapping
into the above mentioned high cape/high shear environment with
organized severe thunderstorms will need close monitoring.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Successive shortwaves and periodic rounds of thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, remains possible Friday through Sunday. This is
a result of the aforementioned upper low in the west finally
approaching and ejecting east of North Dakota by Sunday night.
This leaves behind a northwest flow aloft Monday through
Wednesday. Periodic shortwaves advertised within northwest flow
will be conducive to more shower/thunderstorm development. Timing
of shortwaves too difficult at this time. Main message is an
active period continues in the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Aviation concerns to start the TAF valid period include low level
wind shear over the west and central until about 16/13z, and the
threat for convection at KISN and KMOT until about 16/18z. A strong
low level jet coming into western / central North Dakota from low
pressure in eastern Montana will result in low level wind shear
until surface speeds increase during the mid morning hours. On the
convection chances at KISN and KMOT, have not included anything in
the TAFs issued at 16/06z as confidence is not yet high enough that
the TAF sites will be impacted.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&
.Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10
Camden AR 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 69 89 68 88 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Little Rock AR 75 92 73 92 / 30 10 0 10
Monticello AR 75 93 74 91 / 30 10 0 10
Mount Ida AR 72 91 70 89 / 30 10 0 10
Mountain Home AR 70 89 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
Newport AR 71 92 72 91 / 20 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Russellville AR 73 92 71 91 / 30 10 0 10
Searcy AR 72 92 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
Stuttgart AR 74 91 73 91 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1200 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Four Corners region and expand
westward through early next week, resulting in very hot weather
Sunday through Tuesday. The hottest day will likely be Monday
when many areas away from the immediate coast will be well above
100 degrees. Gradual cooling is likely for the remainder of the
week, but temperatures will generally remain above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
Warming trend has commenced today...with most areas up 5 to 10
degrees over yesterday. A large area of high pressure over
northern Mexico has started to expand to the north and west...and
will continue to as the trough to the north moves off to the
northeast. Meanwhile...onshore pressure gradients will weaken each
day through Sunday or Monday...while northerly gradients
strengthen. This all adds up to a very hot next few days.
Temperatures should trend up 5 to 10 degrees each day Saturday
through Monday. Monday still looks the hottest...when maximum
temperatures should generally range from 100 to 110 degrees away
from the immediate coast. Records will be threatened but records
are already high from previous heat waves in 2008 and 1973.
Excessive heat watches will be upgraded to warnings with the
afternoon forecast.
Other things are going on in the weather world besides the heat.
Dense fog will be a concern along the Central Coast tonight into
Saturday...and smoke will affect much of the area south and east
of Santa Barbara from the Sherpa Fire. Gusty Sundowner winds are
likely each night through Monday night...which will not help
firefighting efforts. The strongest winds are expected Saturday
Night and Sunday night when the winds turn more northerly and
Montecito will be in the crosshairs for gusts into the 40 mph
range. This boost may combine with the increasing heat to bring
red flag conditions. Some northerly winds will also affect the
I-5 corridor and areas to the south during this time...though wind
advisories do not look needed.
Convection is also in the picture. Thunderstorms currently over
west-central Mexico should rotate through southern California on
Sunday. This will bring some high clouds...but more importantly a
potential for dry lightning which would create a serious fire
starting source. The best chances are over Los Angeles County.
Confidence is always very low for such scenarios...but this will
have to monitored closely.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
A trough off the northern California coast will nudge the high
pressure center to the east a touch...and help onshore pressure
gradients to return by the afternoon. This should allow coastal
and valley areas to cool some...but it will remain hot and well
above normal. Interior areas will not feel any affects from this
and excessively hot conditions look likely. The one wrinkle to
this is a large batch of high clouds that should fill the sky and
dampen some of the sun`s warming...but probably not too much. The
cooling trend will continue into Thursday and Friday as the trough
asserts itself more and the ridge retreats to the east. Expecting
some low clouds and fog to return as is custom for this time of
the year...and dense fog would be a concern when it does return.
The shift in the high will also allow for a window of southerly
flow aloft sometime from Tuesday through Thursday. Convection will
be possible as a result...though most of the moisture will be well
above the ground. Wednesday has the best shot of something...and a
slight chance was added to the mountains and deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...18/0600Z.
At 06Z, the marine layer depth was around 500 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the marine inversion was around 1400 feet with a
temperature around 24 degrees Celsius.
North of Point Conception...VLIFR to LIFR conditions will become
prevalent through 10Z at coastal terminals. VFR conditions will
redevelop between 15Z and 18Z.
South of Point Conception...There is a chance of IFR to MVFR
conditions in smoke due to the Scherpa Fire through 20Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.
KLAX and KBUR...There is a 40 percent chance of IFR to MVFR
conditions in smoke due to the Scherpa Fire through 20Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.
&&
.MARINE...17/800 PM.
Northwest winds to SCA levels will continue from Point Conception
to San Nicolas Island through late tonight. Northwest winds will
likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and small
craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to San
Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will build
Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below 10
feet. Otherwise an active storm track is expected during the
remainder of this week and the swells generated from the expected
storm force fetch areas from 190-220 will begin to arrive next
week Tuesday and build through next week Thursday. Small craft
advisory for hazardous sea conditions are not expected but extra
currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are likely.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...17/800 PM.
Gusty sundowner winds in effect once again for the western
portions of the SBA South coast and Santa Ynez mountains
this evening, The Refugio Hills RAWS sensor near the Sherpa Fire
was reporting north winds 31 mph gusting to 39 mph as of 8 pm.
Current SBA-Santa Maria gradient as of 8 pm at -3.4 mb and is
expected to further strengthen during the next few hours. As a
result, looking for sundowner winds to increase slightly, with
gusts of 35 to 40 mph along coastal portions west of Goleta, and
locally up to 45 mph in the foothills. Sundowner winds expected to
remain gusty through much of the night.
Elevated fire danger then expected to occur across Southwest
California Saturday through Tuesday due to the extended period of
very hot and dry conditions combined with the already dry fuels.
During this time, humidities in the teens and single digits will
be common for areas away from the coast. In addition, the Santa
Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains will see increasing
fire danger Saturday (late afternoon through nighttime hours) as
Sundowner winds are expected to be slightly stronger and more
widespread, while humidities are expected to lower to around 30
percent or lower. There is the potential for critical fire weather
conditions across the SBA south coast and Santa Ynez mountains
from late Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. During this
time, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued due to the combination
of gusty Sundowner winds, low humidities, and hot
temperatures...bringing the potential for extreme fire danger and
fire behavior. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible for
coastal areas , with gusts of 45 to 55 mph in the foothills and
mountains. Humidities are expected to lower to between 10 and 20
percent, along with poor overnight recoveries. Meanwhile,
temperatures are expected to soar into the 90s during the late
afternoon and evening hours, and could possibly exceed 100
degrees.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning For
zone 39. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT
Monday For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM
PDT Tuesday For zones 51>54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday morning For zones 239-252. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gomberg/Kittell
FIRE...Gomberg
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Sukup
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1050 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Showers in the northern mountains and valley tonight
will end early Saturday morning. Above average temperatures will
return to NorCal Sunday through next week.
.DISCUSSION...
Showers are over the northern valley this evening and will
continue overnight. Rainfall amounts up to 0.50 inches will be
possible. Showers will diminish towards sunrise as disturbance
shifts east. Current forecast is on track and no evening update
will be needed.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis during the early
afternoon indicated an upper level low pressure system off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Moisture was streaming into
NorCal, and satellite imagery showed increasing cloud cover. Radar
returns showed scattered showers developing across the northern
valley and mountains.
Model forecasts are in good agreement with the upper level flow
pattern which keeps the upper low pressure off the Pacific
Northwest coast tonight and Saturday. As a result, shower and a
few thunderstorms are possible in the northern Sacramento Valley
and northern mountains through the early evening tonight. Showers
will continue overnight through Saturday morning.
The upper level low will begin to break down Sunday and showers
will exit the forecast area as a building ridge of high pressure
from the south influences the area. Temperatures will return to
near normal Sunday, while high temperatures Monday are expected to
reach up to 10 degrees above average in the mid to upper 90s. The
warming temperatures will bring a big temperature swing; high
temperatures will warm up by 20 to 25 degrees across the forecast
area.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure from the Desert SW extends towards NorCal early next
week resulting in max temps 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
portions of the Central Valley topping out around the century
mark. Models showing significant amount of higher level cloudiness
streaming into the area from the south Wednesday, which may
provide for a few degrees of cooling. Heights/thickness trend down
beyond midweek as upper ridging progresses, and Interior NorCal
becomes more influenced by offshore upper low/trough. As a result,
high temperatures are expected to lower to near or slightly above
normal by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
SWly flow alf with upr low off S OR cst. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs exc isold MVFR poss in shwrs omtns and N Sac Vly. Lcl S-SW
sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts ovr hyr trrn aftns/eves.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Upper ridge currently centered over western KS, which where the
thermal ridge resides. At the surface there is an expensive high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. On the western periphery of
that high is the remnants of a cold front that swept through the
Midwest yesterday and overnight. Ahead of that boundary dew points
have been pooling with values reaching 80 degrees. Day time mixing
has not lowered the dew points much due to the depth of the moisture
in the lowest levels. Therefore with temperatures reaching the mid
to upper 90s the heat indices have reached 110 mainly in northeast
KS. Across central KS the moisture is less deep and therefore dew
points have mixed into the 60s. This has caused the heat indices to
still reach 105 to 110 at those locations. There is still a slight
chance that the cap could break on the western edge of the moisture
although the forcing is fairly weak with the lack of overall
convergence. If that were to occur there would be the possibility of
large hail and damaging wind. Mlcape is over 3000 j/kg and the LCL
heights are rather high.
Tonight storms are expected to develop along a front in far
northwest KS and central NE. These storms will try to reach central
KS late this evening, but the chances are low at this point. As
these storms approach the area instability will decrease, but a few
storms may still be capable of hail and gusty wind mainly across
north central KS during the early morning hours. As of now the
chances for storms tomorrow are low, but what happens overnight will
ultimately determine that. The potential MCS that moves through
western KS could develop an MCV, and or outflow that redevelops
convection in our area. The models are also hinting at another MCS
in northeast NE that moves southward towards KS, and same concept
applies. The nested NAM and WRF solutions were showing showers and
storms trying to form tomorrow during the day, things will be more
clear tonight after things form. forecast soundings show that most
locations will have a strong cap in place tomorrow afternoon, so did
not increase pops much at all. One thing more certain is that the
east to southeast flow in the low levels will lower the temperatures
and dew points across the area. Also, any cloud cover or
precipitation will cause cooler temperatures. Therefore heat indices
are expected to range from 90 to 95 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Saturday night through much of Monday look to have a good chance
of remaining dry as the upper ridge strengthens again while the
boundary layer airmass remains on the drier side by the assistance
of the Great Lakes surface high. This slightly drier low level
air should also keep heat indices below the critical thresholds
for heat advisories but it will be close as temperatures will
likely climb at least into the mid 90s with dewpoints increasing
back closer to 70.
By early next week, a series of short wave troughs riding along
the Canadian border will take a slight southward shift over the
Great Lakes and appear likely to push a cold front into the local
area. The timing of this front will impact our local weather, and
it seems likely to come close enough to northern KS to warrant
slight chances for thunderstorms late Monday. Expect a cap to be
in place but any frontal convergence may be sufficient to overcome
the cap in the immediate vicinity of the front.
It looks like the front will surge a bit farther south on Tuesday,
and thus Tuesday into Tuesday evening may provide the best chance
for storms in the forecast period...although again dependent upon
where the front sets up. Where thunderstorms do develop, expect
sufficient shear and instability for storm organization with a
non-zero severe weather threat.
Beyond Tuesday night through the rest of the week, the forecast
will depend largely on the location of the upper high. Some
guidance builds it more firmly overhead while another suite of
model guidance puts eastern KS in the transition zone which could
be a focus for weak upper disturbances and occasional MCS
activity. Do expect hot conditions through this period, but again
the magnitude of the heat will be greater if the ridge can build
more strongly overhead and confidence is on the low end regarding
this evolution at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
For the 06Z TAFs, confidence remains low that storms actually move
into the terminals over the next few hours, so VCTS is not added
at this time. However, if current trends continue, then showers or
remnant thunderstorms don`t seem to be a very good occurrence.
Have not added morning fog as the expectation is that lower
dewpoints continue to work in from the east making fog or reduced
vis situation harder to occur. This seems to be supported by 00Z
guidance.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Isolated storms are anticipated late this afternoon/evening within
another moist/uncapped pbl. H925-H85 morning map analysis suggested
that limited mixing of the afternoon dewpoint will occur leading to
higher mlcapes as well as higher heat indices across central KS and
a heat advisory was issued for Barton and Russell counties. Other
storms developing over northwest KS ahead of a subtle wave lifting
over the Rockies may propagate toward central/south central KS this
evening and tonight....but slow storm motions may keep much of the
activity west of the area. Any storm that can propagate into the
area cold become severe and maintained a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook. H85 ridging over the Ohio Valley area should allow
drier air to advect over the Central Plains states through the
weekend while H7 temperatures are progged to rise resulting in an
increasing cap strength and decreasing chances for precipitation.
The good news is that afternoon humidities will drop keeping heat
indices a bit lower.
Monday...A shortwave trough moving over Manitoba/Ontario will drive
a cold front south over the Northern/Central Plains states late Mon.
The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF slowing the frontal surge on
Monday keeping it stalled near I-80.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A diffuse front may arrive Tuesday bringing increasing chances
for showers and storms. The next challenge will be how fast the
mid/upper ridge builds back over the Central Conus. The GFS keeps
the ridge southwest of the area allowing a NW flow regime to
impact the region while the ECMWF is much faster building the
ridge back over the area. Maintained low pops in the Tue-Wed
periods while trending warmer and dry toward the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A line of showers/thunderstorms will continue to spread slowly
southeast across the region overnight with gusty northwest winds.
The storms will diminish towards daybreak with winds switching
around to the east/southeast during the day on Saturday. Meanwhile
VFR conditions will prevail as the storms dissipate.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 96 72 97 / 30 10 0 0
Hutchinson 72 97 70 98 / 80 10 10 0
Newton 73 96 69 97 / 30 10 0 0
ElDorado 73 95 69 96 / 20 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 72 95 71 95 / 30 10 0 0
Russell 71 98 71 100 / 80 10 10 0
Great Bend 71 98 71 99 / 80 10 10 0
Salina 71 96 70 99 / 40 10 10 0
McPherson 72 96 70 98 / 70 10 10 0
Coffeyville 74 93 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
Chanute 72 93 68 95 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 72 92 68 95 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 73 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.
Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
324 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...
Some convection developed during the overnight hours over
Powder River, Carter and Fallon Counties. The HRRR did a pretty
good job in framing both the timing and location of this activity.
Only a few reports came in...mainly dime sized hail, gusty
winds, and occasional heavy rain. The rain will be welcome over
this part of the CWA, as things have been looking pretty dry for
a while now.
Southwesterly flow continues to dominate the upper levels, as an
upper level low progresses over the northwest US.
The main severe threat will be over the TFX and GGW CWAs by
Saturday afternoon...where the best shear and unstable air will be
located. Surface low pressure will move to the northeast and drag
a frontal boundary across the BYZ CWA by Saturday night. This will
bring with it cooler and drier air. Due to rising heights and an
abundance of sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the 90s
across much of the lower elevations ahead of the aforementioned
front. Post frontal northwesterly winds will prevail, with
occasional gusts to near 40 mph by Sunday morning.
As far as precipitation is concerned, most of the short range
models keep the main activity well to our north. The best chance
for a pop-up thunderstorm would be over Golden Valley, Wheatland
or Musselshell County, but that may not be until later in the
afternoon.
Father`s Day will be much more comfortable, with highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Singer
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Dry conditions move in during the early part of the week as a
strong ridge builds over the desert southwest. Temperatures will
be on the increase through the week with 90s possible in the
plains from Tuesday onward. Should see some impulses ride north of
the ridge and bring at least a mention of thunderstorms to our
area on Wednesday and Thursday, although global models disagree on
the timing and position of those shortwaves. Regardless of the
timing, the potential will be there for afternoon thunderstorms
after mid-week. Walsh
&&
.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms have pushed south and east of MLS and SHR.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period at all sites.
Winds will gust near 40 kts at LVM after 18Z but are expected to
remain 20 kts or below for all other sites. Walsh
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 058/079 049/080 054/089 058/095 061/092 060/090
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
LVM 089 050/075 040/077 048/085 053/088 054/085 053/084
1/N 21/N 01/U 11/U 01/B 12/T 22/T
HDN 093 056/080 050/081 053/090 058/096 061/095 059/092
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 093 060/079 051/079 056/087 060/095 063/095 064/092
1/U 11/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 097 059/081 051/081 055/090 059/095 063/095 063/092
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 090 058/076 049/077 052/084 056/090 061/090 063/091
3/T 10/N 01/U 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 094 054/079 045/079 051/086 057/092 060/090 060/087
1/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
422 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The potential for thunderstorms and a related severe weather risk
today and tonight is our focus with this forecast release.
As of 0915 UTC, thunderstorms are gradually intensifying in south
central ND as a weak shortwave trough begins to impinge on an area
of steepening mid-level lapse rates. RAP guidance shows MUCAPE near
1500 J/kg over south central ND and the James River valley through
the morning, with effective bulk wind shear in excess of 50 kt and
700-500 MB lapse rates near 8 degrees C/km. This may support a few
strong storms, and possibly a marginally-severe storm, through the
mid-morning hours. We relied on recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR guidance
to build the PoP forecast through mid morning, with likely PoPs in
much of south central ND and the James River Valley, and at least
high-chance PoPs in many other parts of the west and central given
radar trends early this morning.
Today, a warm front will slowly lift northward while low pressure
deepens in MT. The resultant southeast flow will once again draw
increasing boundary layer moisture content into the area, and we
are rather confident that dewpoints will be deep into the 60s F
this afternoon and evening. That will contribute to MLCAPE from
2500 to 3000 J/kg per the 00 UTC GFS and NAM. Forecast soundings
this afternoon and evening across western and central ND show
strong deep-layer shear (0-6-km bulk wind differences from 50 to
60 kt) with significant veering with height. Indeed, many of the
model-derived soundings are analogs to environments which have
previously produced significant supercells capable of all severe
weather hazards. That being said, weak shortwave ridging may be
the prominent feature aloft this afternoon and evening behind the
morning shortwave trough passage. The associated slight 500 MB
height rises are very often associated with enough subsidence to
prevent convective initiation, especially since low-level wind
fields in association with the northward-advancing warm front are
not very convergent. True to that point, nearly all of the 00 UTC
convection-allowing model guidance is devoid of storms in western
or central ND after the elevated activity from this morning exits
the area after about 19 UTC.
That being said, and after much deliberation, we have chosen to
maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms over almost all of the
west and central this afternoon and evening. These probabilities
reflect a very conditional possibility of a storm developing in
an environment that is favorable for supercell formation. The
decision to do this was based largely on 1) forecast soundings
which reveal rather weak capping during the peak of the diurnal
heating cycle with MLCIN generally -30 J/kg or less, and 2) the
possible presence of weak, meso- or micro-scale boundaries this
afternoon and early evening, which could provide the necessary
low-level ascent to foster isolated convective initiation. That is
a rather low-predictability scenario, but we believe it is within
the realm of possibilities because of early-day showers and storms
which could leave outflow boundaries in their wake, and the chance
for differential heating boundaries to form. The latter potential
is on our minds because both the NAM and GFS soundings display a
cloud layer between 3000 and 5000 ft AGL today in response to
boundary layer moistening. Such a stratus or cumulus deck could
unevenly develop and/or dissipate, resulting in differential
heating over relatively small areas.
Again, we have to stress how low the probability of storms really
is this afternoon, but given the possibility of severe weather if
any do form, we felt it prudent to include a slight chance in the
forecast.
The greater potential for severe storms will occur tonight across
northwest and north central ND as more meaningful height falls
cross the region in advance of a shortwave trough. Those storms
are expected to initially develop over north central MT during
the afternoon and propagate east or northeastward with upscale
growth into a linear, damaging-wind-producing convective complex
based on the CAPE-shear setting and nearly unanimous support of
convection- allowing model guidance. The main uncertainty with
those storms is how far south they will track, as some guidance
(like the 00 UTC NAM) keeps the storm complex north of the border,
across southern Canada. Some convection-allowing model suites do
the same. That being said, the ARW cores of convection-allowing
models (including the NCEP-run WRF-ARW, the NSSL WRF-ARW, and
every single member making up the NSSL WRF-ARW ensemble) carry
that convective complex across northwest and north central ND with
a formidable risk of large hail and damaging winds from late
evening onward. In fact, some members of the ARW group suggest the
storm complex may impact areas as far south as Interstate 94.
Thus, we have maintained at least a slight chance of storms in
most areas tonight, and chose to explicitly mention the risk of
of severe storms in north- west and north central ND`s text and
point and click forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Sunday will feature lower humidity and gusty northwest winds as a
cold front exits stage right, taking the chance of thunderstorms
with it. The consensus of 00 UTC bias-corrected MOS guidance that
was used to construct the wind forecast suggests sustained speeds
near 20 mph across most of western and central ND, and stronger
winds sustained around 30 mph in northwest ND. We may ultimately
need a wind headline in northwest and parts of north central ND
where the low- and mid-level height gradient contributes to the
strongest wind speeds in the well-mixed boundary layer. Forecast
soundings taken at Williston Sunday afternoon show dry adiabatic
lapse rates to 700 MB, where 40+ kt wind speeds will reside.
Otherwise, the region will lie on the northern edge of the rather
intense and sprawling subtropical ridge that will remain anchored
across the southern Rockies and Plains next week. We are carrying
a dry forecast Monday and Tuesday when the guidance consensus is
for relatively stable deep-layer northwest flow across the area.
However, from Wednesday and beyond, the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF and
their respective ensembles suggest lowering predictability with
regard to any shortwave troughs that could roll across the top of
the ridge. The intensity of the ridge suggests the main dynamics
associated with any shortwaves will likely roll through southern
Canada, but the synoptic-scale pattern nonetheless suggests that
ridge-running thunderstorms could impact western and central ND.
The multi-model consensus we relied on to build the forecast did
indeed provide a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday through
Friday. Temperatures next week warm from the 70s Monday to the
80s by mid to late week, per the multi-model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle. However, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected through about 15 UTC Saturday, with
the greatest concentration of activity from KBIS to KJMS south
to the ND/SD state line. Local MVFR or IFR conditions may occur
with any of those storms. During the day Saturday, only a low
probability of a storm exists at any given terminal, but there
may be some low VFR ceilings as low-level moisture increases.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
100 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The going forecast was on track and no substantial changes were
made with this update cycle. The showers and thunderstorms moving
across southwest ND just before 06 UTC are propagating through an
environment presently characterized by MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg,
so their strength is being limited. As the weak shortwave driving
that activity moves further east into south central ND and the
James River valley before daybreak, the convection attendant to
its vertical motion will encounter increasing amounts of elevated
bouyancy. Thus, a few strong storms are possible, as recent HRRR
simulations have implied.
UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Convection over the southern James River Valley is still having
trouble getting organized and has actually been on a downturn over
the past half-hour or so. Further west, the next short wave to
approach the area is now producing thunderstorms over
southeastern Montana into northeast Wyoming. This will continue to
track towards our area which is supported by latest HRRR model
run. Expect convection to push into the area around or not long
after midnight. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A few weak showers/thunderstorms are trying to push into far south
central North Dakota into the southern James River Valley from
South Dakota, though these have been dying off not long after they
cross the border. Expect storms to continue to try and push in
through this evening. If one is able to hold together will have to
keep an eye on it with instability increasing towards the
east. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Main forecast problem in the short term forecast is the chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure continues to build over western and central ND.
20 UTC surface analysis shows cold front has pushed into far
southeast North Dakota. Even though high dwpt air remains over the
southern James river valley, latest RAP fcst soundings for late
afternoon in this area indicate capping remaining with an
unfavorable low level flow pattern for severe weather. Will keep a
mention of a slight chance of thunder southeast tonight but best
chance for severe weather this evening appears to be south and
east of the forecast area.
Late tonight and Saturday morning both short term and medium range
models indicate possible convection developing over the northern
high plains and propagating into the western dakotas. There is also
some indication of possible convection aloft over the James river
valley. Will generally carry slight chance to chance pops across the
south and central. Northern tier counties appear more stable
overnight.
On saturday the front that moved through today lifts back north as a
warm front with warm southeast flow returning to the region. we
become quite unstable Saturday afternoon with good bulk shear.
Directional shear also becomes more favorable. However we could
remain capped, and after Saturday morning we may not have a
trigger to overcome the cap and initiate convection during our
most unstable hours. We will be warm and humid and will keep a
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Cap is too weak to not
have at least a chance of storms. If storms would develop
Saturday, severe convection would certainly be possible. Due to
the uncertainty at this time will not mention severe wording in
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Our kicker shortwave does appear in the beginning of the long term
period. Emanating from the eastern pacific and tracking northeast
into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. This will likely initiate convection
over north central Montana and southern Saskatchewan Saturday
evening, and tracking toward North Dakota late Saturday night.
There are some differences between the deterministic models with
the NAM and some of it`s associated CAM`s keeping convection
mainly north of ND. The EC and moreso the GFS keep the warm front
lifting through ND on Saturday farther south and thus keep the
northern tier counties at risk for thunderstorms late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.
A cold front moves through the area by Sunday morning. Depending on
the eventual timing, we could see some morning thunder. At this time
a consensus blend keeps all but the far north central dry on Sunday.
Northwest flow takes hold early next week, thus we should dry out
and cool down with only slight chances of showers or possible
thunder Monday, then dry through at least mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle. However, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected through about 15 UTC Saturday, with
the greatest concentration of activity from KBIS to KJMS south
to the ND/SD state line. Local MVFR or IFR conditions may occur
with any of those storms. During the day Saturday, only a low
probability of a storm exists at any given terminal, but there
may be some low VFR ceilings as low-level moisture increases.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The going forecast was on track and no substantial changes were
made with this update cycle. The showers and thunderstorms moving
across southwest ND just before 06 UTC are propagating through an
environment presently characterized by MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg,
so their strength is being limited. As the weak shortwave driving
that activity moves further east into south central ND and the
James River valley before daybreak, the convection attendant to
its vertical motion will encounter increasing amounts of elevated
bouyancy. That, a few strong storms are possible, as recent HRRR
simulations have implied.
UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Convection over the southern James River Valley is still having
trouble getting organized and has actually been on a downturn over
the past half-hour or so. Further west, the next short wave to
approach the area is now producing thunderstorms over
southeastern Montana into northeast Wyoming. This will continue to
track towards our area which is supported by latest HRRR model
run. Expect convection to push into the area around or not long
after midnight. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A few weak showers/thunderstorms are trying to push into far south
central North Dakota into the southern James River Valley from
South Dakota, though these have been dying off not long after they
cross the border. Expect storms to continue to try and push in
through this evening. If one is able to hold together will have to
keep an eye on it with instability increasing towards the
east. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Main forecast problem in the short term forecast is the chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure continues to build over western and central ND.
20 UTC surface analysis shows cold front has pushed into far
southeast North Dakota. Even though high dwpt air remains over the
southern James river valley, latest RAP fcst soundings for late
afternoon in this area indicate capping remaining with an
unfavorable low level flow pattern for severe weather. Will keep a
mention of a slight chance of thunder southeast tonight but best
chance for severe weather this evening appears to be south and
east of the forecast area.
Late tonight and Saturday morning both short term and medium range
models indicate possible convection developing over the northern
high plains and propagating into the western dakotas. There is also
some indication of possible convection aloft over the James river
valley. Will generally carry slight chance to chance pops across the
south and central. Northern tier counties appear more stable
overnight.
On saturday the front that moved through today lifts back north as a
warm front with warm southeast flow returning to the region. we
become quite unstable Saturday afternoon with good bulk shear.
Directional shear also becomes more favorable. However we could
remain capped, and after Saturday morning we may not have a
trigger to overcome the cap and initiate convection during our
most unstable hours. We will be warm and humid and will keep a
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Cap is too weak to not
have at least a chance of storms. If storms would develop
Saturday, severe convection would certainly be possible. Due to
the uncertainty at this time will not mention severe wording in
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Our kicker shortwave does appear in the beginning of the long term
period. Emanating from the eastern pacific and tracking northeast
into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. This will likely initiate convection
over north central Montana and southern Saskatchewan Saturday
evening, and tracking toward North Dakota late Saturday night.
There are some differences between the deterministic models with
the NAM and some of it`s associated CAM`s keeping convection
mainly north of ND. The EC and moreso the GFS keep the warm front
lifting through ND on Saturday farther south and thus keep the
northern tier counties at risk for thunderstorms late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.
A cold front moves through the area by Sunday morning. Depending on
the eventual timing, we could see some morning thunder. At this time
a consensus blend keeps all but the far north central dry on Sunday.
Northwest flow takes hold early next week, thus we should dry out
and cool down with only slight chances of showers or possible
thunder Monday, then dry through at least mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle. However, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected through about 15 UTC Saturday, with
the greatest concentration of activity from KBIS to KJMS south
to the ND/SD state line. Local MVFR or IFR conditions may occur
with any of those storms. During the day Saturday, only a low
probability of a storm exists at any given terminal, but there
may be some low VFR ceilings as low-level moisture increases.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1041 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
15z subjective surface streamline analysis indicates drier low
level air continuing to filter in from the northeast. Mid level
temperatures have warmed noticeably during the past 24 hours. Any
convective development this afternoon should affect areas to the
southwest of the forecast area.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&
.Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10
Camden AR 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 69 89 68 88 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Little Rock AR 75 92 73 92 / 30 10 0 10
Monticello AR 75 93 74 91 / 30 10 0 10
Mount Ida AR 72 91 70 89 / 30 10 0 10
Mountain Home AR 70 89 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
Newport AR 71 92 72 91 / 20 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Russellville AR 73 92 71 91 / 30 10 0 10
Searcy AR 72 92 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
Stuttgart AR 74 91 73 91 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop behind an outflow
boundary moving east across the CWA this morning at 08Z and extended
from Frankfort to Wamego to Emporia. Thunderstorms were continuing
to develop behind the outflow boundary due to isentropic lift.
Mesoanalysis shows 925 mb moisture axis extending from north central
Kansas into southeast Kansas. Expect scattered thunderstorms with
moderate to locally heavy rainfall to persist through sunrise then
gradually decrease through mid morning. Boundary looks to washout
during the morning hours with east to southeast winds prevailing.
Short term models differ with initialization of ongoing
precipitation and with future development, so confidence is not
high. Will hold off on introducing any convection this afternoon at
this time and just dissipate the thunderstorms this morning by mid
morning. Expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Easterly surface
flow off the surface high into eastern Kansas will bring lower dew
points in the 60s today, which will keep the heat indices near or
below 100 this afternoon. Highs today will range from the low to mid
90s. Tonight, high pressure continue to build west across the area.
Expect dry conditions with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
Winds veer to the south Sunday and southwest into much of Monday as
the eastern surface high moves of and a southern Canada/northern
tier cold front attempts to work its way south into the Central
Plains. Low level progs continue to show little in the way of
significant temp or dewpoint advection though slightly warmer
temps are likely in a more favorable mixing regime and very little
opportunity for convective remnants/debris cloud. Heat index
values will again near the century mark but should stay below 105.
Front`s progression into the area is still questionable with upper
ridge overhead and little advection behind it but small precip
chances in mainly northern and eastern areas remain reasonable
with only a modest cap and some increase in PW. Front will likely
mix back northeast of the area Wednesday into Thursday for a
warming trend again after likely slightly cooler area Tuesday.
Models do continue to show enough variability in upper ridge
placement and shortwaves topping it to keep confidence on precip
chances and degree and persistence of heat low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Cloud debris will
decrease through the morning hours. Winds will be out of the east
southeast through the period and remain under 10 kts.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Early morning convection crossing western and central Kansas is
expected to be exiting the Pratt and Medicine lodge areas between
7 and 10 am. Once these storms end the skies will clear from west
to east which will allow temperatures to climb back into the 90s
by the early afternoon. At this time based on given the rainfall
that occurred earlier this morning and the 850mb temperatures at
00z Sunday will be staying close to the previous forecast with
highs mainly in the mid 90s. Upper 90s still not out of the
question in south central Kansas. Heat index readings this
afternoon will once again climb into the 100 to 103 degree range
given the expected humidity across south central and north central
Kansas. This is below the criteria for issuing a heat advisory for
today so no headlines expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Weak flow aloft is expected late this weekend as an upper level
high becomes centered over the Central Rockies on Sunday. This
upper high will then shift west slightly Sunday night and Monday
towards the four corners region and by early Tuesday an upper
level ridge axis is forecast will extend from the four corners
region to central Alberta. As the upper level ridge axis amplifies
early next week a northwesterly flow will develop over the Central
and Northern Plains. Both the GFS and ECWMF are in good agreement
with an upper level trough dropping south out of Canada and into
the western Great Lakes Region on Tuesday as a surface cold front
approaches northern Kansas. Models do however differ on how far
south this surface frontal boundary will move late Tuesday into
Wednesday and at this time confidence is not high on which model
is more correct. The location of this frontal boundary mid week
will be key for convection and temperatures. Given low confidence
on which model will end up being more correct will continue to
stay close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation
chances and temperature trends mid to late week. Since the
CRExtendedFcst_Init is favoring the further north solution the
heat is therefore expected to continue with little if any chance
for precipitation mid to late week.
Until this front moves into the Central Plains mid week, if it
does, the unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue
across western Kansas. At this time Based on 850mb temperature
trends from Sunday through Tuesday will keep highs each day in the
mid to upper 90s.
As for precipitation chances late this weekend into early next
week will be focusing the better opportunity for late day
convection along a surface boundary Sunday night and Monday that
is forecast to be located north of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western
Kansas through tonight as surface high pressure remains situated
across the Upper Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 70 96 70 / 40 10 0 0
GCK 95 69 98 70 / 10 10 0 10
EHA 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 96 68 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 95 70 98 71 / 10 10 0 10
P28 98 71 98 71 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Early morning convection crossing western and central Kansas is
expected to be exiting the Pratt and Medicine lodge areas between
7 and 10 am. Once these storms end the skies will clear from west
to east which will allow temperatures to climb back into the 90s
by the early afternoon. At this time based on given the rainfall
that occurred earlier this morning and the 850mb temperatures at
00z Sunday will be staying close to the previous forecast with
highs mainly in the mid 90s. Upper 90s still not out of the
question in south central Kansas. Heat index readings this
afternoon will once again climb into the 100 to 103 degree range
given the expected humidity across south central and north central
Kansas. This is below the criteria for issuing a heat advisory for
today so no headlines expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Weak flow aloft is expected late this weekend as an upper level
high becomes centered over the Central Rockies on Sunday. This
upper high will then shift west slightly Sunday night and Monday
towards the four corners region and by early Tuesday an upper
level ridge axis is forecast will extend from the four corners
region to central Alberta. As the upper level ridge axis amplifies
early next week a northwesterly flow will develop over the Central
and Northern Plains. Both the GFS and ECWMF are in good agreement
with an upper level trough dropping south out of Canada and into
the western Great Lakes Region on Tuesday as a surface cold front
approaches northern Kansas. Models do however differ on how far
south this surface frontal boundary will move late Tuesday into
Wednesday and at this time confidence is not high on which model
is more correct. The location of this frontal boundary mid week
will be key for convection and temperatures. Given low confidence
on which model will end up being more correct will continue to
stay close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation
chances and temperature trends mid to late week. Since the
CRExtendedFcst_Init is favoring the further north solution the
heat is therefore expected to continue with little if any chance
for precipitation mid to late week.
Until this front moves into the Central Plains mid week, if it
does, the unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue
across western Kansas. At this time Based on 850mb temperature
trends from Sunday through Tuesday will keep highs each day in the
mid to upper 90s.
As for precipitation chances late this weekend into early next
week will be focusing the better opportunity for late day
convection along a surface boundary Sunday night and Monday that
is forecast to be located north of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western
Kansas through tonight as surface high pressure remains situated
across the Upper Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 95 70 96 70 / 40 10 0 0
GCK 95 69 98 70 / 10 10 0 10
EHA 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 96 68 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 95 70 98 71 / 10 10 0 10
P28 98 71 98 71 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 436 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
As a result of the outflow from the eastern Nebraska thunderstorm
complex, upslope winds have developed stratus and fog across the
area. So just completed an update to add patchy fog and increase
sky cover this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and high
temperatures through the period. Satellite showing that the flow has
changed little over the last 24 hours, and still remains amplified
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...initialized fine. At mid levels...the Canadian and
Gfs were starting out the best. The Rap/Sref were starting out the
best on the surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs and Nam were
doing the best on the low level thermal field.
Today/tonight...will be watching for as long as possible to see if
any additional thunderstorms develop before 12z. High resolution and
convective allowing models are showing both scenarios. Currently am
seeing an outflow boundary from eastern Nebraska approach the area.
That could set off more storms. At this it looks like additional
development will be minimal and left slight chance in there for this
morning.
Of additional concern is that outflow will act like a backdoor cold
front and destroy the temperature forecast. Did keep or lowered the
temperatures I inherited.
Question will be if any thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and evening hours. This will be influenced by any
mesoscale influences from ongoing convection. Heights rise through
the day. The ridge is in a couple of pieces with a sheared out area
of vorticity over the eastern portion of the area. Models showing it
moist in the lower levels with 700 mb temperatures below 15C in the
eastern portion of the area where what lift there is will be located.
Models are showing no cap. However am not sure if there will be any
lift above the surface to help this along. Currently have a slight
chance over the eastern portion of the area. At this time will keep
the going forecast but am very unsure. A problem here is if
thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain themselves, they
will be very slow movers and combined with PWATs near 1.5, could
allow for very heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridge aloft strengthens/builds over the area
and accordingly the mid level temperatures warm even more. Believe
afternoon and evening convection will be capped because of the this.
Believe models, especially the Gfs are bringing boundary too far
south during this period. Because of this and little to no lift
during the overnight hours, am going to keep pops/qpf out of the
forecast.
Strengthening ridge and warm air advection will make for warmer
maxes. Considering recent biases and 850 mb temperatures, am going
to raise maxes a little bit.
Monday/Monday night...As with Sunday night, big key is where the
front is going to end up by late in the afternoon through the rest
of the night. The Nam followed by the Canadian/Gfs/Sref have it the
furthest south. Again not sure about this. The Ecmwf has it the
furthest north and barely into the forecast area. Of course this may
get changed if convection is able to develop and push the front
further south. I may be splitting hairs here but thinking the
further north solutions appear to have the best chance to work out.
Also little to no lift aloft through this entire time with a few
weak shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge. However, the
height field changes little. Models show the air mass capped. So
kept this period dry. Considering that the front will be further
north, am going to raise maxes a little.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and high
temperatures through the period. Satellite showing that the flow has
changed little over the last 24 hours, and still remains amplified
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...initialized fine. At mid levels...the Canadian and
Gfs were starting out the best. The Rap/Sref were starting out the
best on the surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs and Nam were
doing the best on the low level thermal field.
Today/tonight...will be watching for as long as possible to see if
any additional thunderstorms develop before 12z. High resolution and
convective allowing models are showing both scenarios. Currently am
seeing an outflow boundary from eastern Nebraska approach the area.
That could set off more storms. At this it looks like additional
development will be minimal and left slight chance in there for this
morning.
Of additional concern is that outflow will act like a backdoor cold
front and destroy the temperature forecast. Did keep or lowered the
temperatures I inherited.
Question will be if any thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and evening hours. This will be influenced by any
mesoscale influences from ongoing convection. Heights rise through
the day. The ridge is in a couple of pieces with a sheared out area
of vorticity over the eastern portion of the area. Models showing it
moist in the lower levels with 700 mb temperatures below 15C in the
eastern portion of the area where what lift there is will be located.
Models are showing no cap. However am not sure if there will be any
lift above the surface to help this along. Currently have a slight
chance over the eastern portion of the area. At this time will keep
the going forecast but am very unsure. A problem here is if
thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain themselves, they
will be very slow movers and combined with PWATs near 1.5, could
allow for very heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridge aloft strengthens/builds over the area
and accordingly the mid level temperatures warm even more. Believe
afternoon and evening convection will be capped because of the this.
Believe models, especially the Gfs are bringing boundary too far
south during this period. Because of this and little to no lift
during the overnight hours, am going to keep pops/qpf out of the
forecast.
Strengthening ridge and warm air advection will make for warmer
maxes. Considering recent biases and 850 mb temperatures, am going
to raise maxes a little bit.
Monday/Monday night...As with Sunday night, big key is where the
front is going to end up by late in the afternoon through the rest
of the night. The Nam followed by the Canadian/Gfs/Sref have it the
furthest south. Again not sure about this. The Ecmwf has it the
furthest north and barely into the forecast area. Of course this may
get changed if convection is able to develop and push the front
further south. I may be splitting hairs here but thinking the
further north solutions appear to have the best chance to work out.
Also little to no lift aloft through this entire time with a few
weak shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge. However, the
height field changes little. Models show the air mass capped. So
kept this period dry. Considering that the front will be further
north, am going to raise maxes a little.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and high
temperatures through the period. Satellite showing that the flow has
changed little over the last 24 hours, and still remains amplified
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...initialized fine. At mid levels...the Canadian and
Gfs were starting out the best. The Rap/Sref were starting out the
best on the surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs and Nam were
doing the best on the low level thermal field.
Today/tonight...will be watching for as long as possible to see if
any additional thunderstorms develop before 12z. High resolution and
convective allowing models are showing both scenarios. Currently am
seeing an outflow boundary from eastern Nebraska approach the area.
That could set off more storms. At this it looks like additional
development will be minimal and left slight chance in there for this
morning.
Of additional concern is that outflow will act like a backdoor cold
front and destroy the temperature forecast. Did keep or lowered the
temperatures I inherited.
Question will be if any thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon and evening hours. This will be influenced by any
mesoscale influences from ongoing convection. Heights rise through
the day. The ridge is in a couple of pieces with a sheared out area
of vorticity over the eastern portion of the area. Models showing it
moist in the lower levels with 700 mb temperatures below 15C in the
eastern portion of the area where what lift there is will be located.
Models are showing no cap. However am not sure if there will be any
lift above the surface to help this along. Currently have a slight
chance over the eastern portion of the area. At this time will keep
the going forecast but am very unsure. A problem here is if
thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain themselves, they
will be very slow movers and combined with PWATs near 1.5, could
allow for very heavy rainfall to cause flash flooding.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridge aloft strengthens/builds over the area
and accordingly the mid level temperatures warm even more. Believe
afternoon and evening convection will be capped because of the this.
Believe models, especially the Gfs are bringing boundary too far
south during this period. Because of this and little to no lift
during the overnight hours, am going to keep pops/qpf out of the
forecast.
Strengthening ridge and warm air advection will make for warmer
maxes. Considering recent biases and 850 mb temperatures, am going
to raise maxes a little bit.
Monday/Monday night...As with Sunday night, big key is where the
front is going to end up by late in the afternoon through the rest
of the night. The Nam followed by the Canadian/Gfs/Sref have it the
furthest south. Again not sure about this. The Ecmwf has it the
furthest north and barely into the forecast area. Of course this may
get changed if convection is able to develop and push the front
further south. I may be splitting hairs here but thinking the
further north solutions appear to have the best chance to work out.
Also little to no lift aloft through this entire time with a few
weak shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge. However, the
height field changes little. Models show the air mass capped. So
kept this period dry. Considering that the front will be further
north, am going to raise maxes a little.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016
At the start of the period, an upper ridge is located over the
western CONUS with a trough to the northeast. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front stalls across northern Kansas.
High pressure moves eastward while the upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. The upper ridge axis pushes over the Rockies on
Tuesday, advancing to the Plains by Wednesday. The ridge of high
pressure should dominate the forecast through mid week, with dry
conditions appearing to persist Tuesday through Thursday. However,
with a boundary anticipated to remain nearby, cannot completely rule
out precipitation.
The ridge breaks down on Thursday as a low over Canada rounds the
top of it and a surface trough develops lee of the Rockies. A
disturbance passes through the flow, bringing slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures remain warm throughout the extended period, with highs
in the 90s and lows staying in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light
rain should wind down at KMCK in the next few hours with dry
conditions at KGLD. Winds generally from the east around 10kts
with some higher gusts. For Saturday into Saturday night southeast
winds slowly increase in the morning with gusts to 25kts expected
during the afternoon. Low level moisture increases from the
southeast creating scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5-6k
ft during time of peak heating. With dry air moving in from the
north its doubtful thunderstorms will develop thus a dry forecast.
After 02z-03z winds slowly subside below 12kts at both terminals
with a clear sky expected as cumulus clouds dissipate.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
This update focused on refining PoPs based on radar trends, with
the focus of elevated showers and storms in the James River valley
early this morning.
Based on recent convection-allowing model guidance, confidence in
the severe weather threat affecting northern ND tonight is still
on the increase. Per collaboration with SPC, the 13 UTC convective
outlook will likely feature a categorical upgrade to an Enhanced
Risk in the northwest part of ND given the potential for a bowing
MCS to impact the state tonight. While that suggests the primary
threat will be damaging winds, we have decided to update our
hazardous weather outlook to mention the risk of an isolated
tornado, as well. That is due to expected wind profiles and in
respect to some guidance that has maintained more discrete
convective modes into west central and northwest ND during the
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
The potential for thunderstorms and a related severe weather risk
today and tonight is our focus with this forecast release.
As of 0915 UTC, thunderstorms are gradually intensifying in south
central ND as a weak shortwave trough begins to impinge on an area
of steepening mid-level lapse rates. RAP guidance shows MUCAPE near
1500 J/kg over south central ND and the James River valley through
the morning, with effective bulk wind shear in excess of 50 kt and
700-500 MB lapse rates near 8 degrees C/km. This may support a few
strong storms, and possibly a marginally-severe storm, through the
mid-morning hours. We relied on recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR guidance
to build the PoP forecast through mid morning, with likely PoPs in
much of south central ND and the James River Valley, and at least
high-chance PoPs in many other parts of the west and central given
radar trends early this morning.
Today, a warm front will slowly lift northward while low pressure
deepens in MT. The resultant southeast flow will once again draw
increasing boundary layer moisture content into the area, and we
are rather confident that dewpoints will be deep into the 60s F
this afternoon and evening. That will contribute to MLCAPE from
2500 to 3000 J/kg per the 00 UTC GFS and NAM. Forecast soundings
this afternoon and evening across western and central ND show
strong deep-layer shear (0-6-km bulk wind differences from 50 to
60 kt) with significant veering with height. Indeed, many of the
model-derived soundings are analogs to environments which have
previously produced significant supercells capable of all severe
weather hazards. That being said, weak shortwave ridging may be
the prominent feature aloft this afternoon and evening behind the
morning shortwave trough passage. The associated slight 500 MB
height rises are very often associated with enough subsidence to
prevent convective initiation, especially since low-level wind
fields in association with the northward-advancing warm front are
not very convergent. True to that point, nearly all of the 00 UTC
convection-allowing model guidance is devoid of storms in western
or central ND after the elevated activity from this morning exits
the area after about 19 UTC.
That being said, and after much deliberation, we have chosen to
maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms over almost all of the
west and central this afternoon and evening. These probabilities
reflect a very conditional possibility of a storm developing in
an environment that is favorable for supercell formation. The
decision to do this was based largely on 1) forecast soundings
which reveal rather weak capping during the peak of the diurnal
heating cycle with MLCIN generally -30 J/kg or less, and 2) the
possible presence of weak, meso- or micro-scale boundaries this
afternoon and early evening, which could provide the necessary
low-level ascent to foster isolated convective initiation. That is
a rather low-predictability scenario, but we believe it is within
the realm of possibilities because of early-day showers and storms
which could leave outflow boundaries in their wake, and the chance
for differential heating boundaries to form. The latter potential
is on our minds because both the NAM and GFS soundings display a
cloud layer between 3000 and 5000 ft AGL today in response to
boundary layer moistening. Such a stratus or cumulus deck could
unevenly develop and/or dissipate, resulting in differential
heating over relatively small areas.
Again, we have to stress how low the probability of storms really
is this afternoon, but given the possibility of severe weather if
any do form, we felt it prudent to include a slight chance in the
forecast.
The greater potential for severe storms will occur tonight across
northwest and north central ND as more meaningful height falls
cross the region in advance of a shortwave trough. Those storms
are expected to initially develop over north central MT during
the afternoon and propagate east or northeastward with upscale
growth into a linear, damaging-wind-producing convective complex
based on the CAPE-shear setting and nearly unanimous support of
convection- allowing model guidance. The main uncertainty with
those storms is how far south they will track, as some guidance
(like the 00 UTC NAM) keeps the storm complex north of the border,
across southern Canada. Some convection-allowing model suites do
the same. That being said, the ARW cores of convection-allowing
models (including the NCEP-run WRF-ARW, the NSSL WRF-ARW, and
every single member making up the NSSL WRF-ARW ensemble) carry
that convective complex across northwest and north central ND with
a formidable risk of large hail and damaging winds from late
evening onward. In fact, some members of the ARW group suggest the
storm complex may impact areas as far south as Interstate 94.
Thus, we have maintained at least a slight chance of storms in
most areas tonight, and chose to explicitly mention the risk of
of severe storms in north- west and north central ND`s text and
point and click forecasts.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
Sunday will feature lower humidity and gusty northwest winds as a
cold front exits stage right, taking the chance of thunderstorms
with it. The consensus of 00 UTC bias-corrected MOS guidance that
was used to construct the wind forecast suggests sustained speeds
near 20 mph across most of western and central ND, and stronger
winds sustained around 30 mph in northwest ND. We may ultimately
need a wind headline in northwest and parts of north central ND
where the low- and mid-level height gradient contributes to the
strongest wind speeds in the well-mixed boundary layer. Forecast
soundings taken at Williston Sunday afternoon show dry adiabatic
lapse rates to 700 MB, where 40+ kt wind speeds will reside.
Otherwise, the region will lie on the northern edge of the rather
intense and sprawling subtropical ridge that will remain anchored
across the southern Rockies and Plains next week. We are carrying
a dry forecast Monday and Tuesday when the guidance consensus is
for relatively stable deep-layer northwest flow across the area.
However, from Wednesday and beyond, the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF and
their respective ensembles suggest lowering predictability with
regard to any shortwave troughs that could roll across the top of
the ridge. The intensity of the ridge suggests the main dynamics
associated with any shortwaves will likely roll through southern
Canada, but the synoptic-scale pattern nonetheless suggests that
ridge-running thunderstorms could impact western and central ND.
The multi-model consensus we relied on to build the forecast did
indeed provide a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday through
Friday. Temperatures next week warm from the 70s Monday to the
80s by mid to late week, per the multi-model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail today and tonight, but there
is at least a slight chance of thunderstorms most of the period.
Any storms that form could produce local MVFR or IFR conditions.
The probability of thunderstorms is greatest around KJMS through
15 UTC, at KISN from 03 to 08 UTC, and at KMOT from 06 to 11 UTC.
The probability of storms at KDIK and KBIS was too low for any
mention in the 12 UTC TAFs. Finally, low-level wind shear is
expected tonight as southerly winds increase aloft.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
219 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Data from local radars indicate isolated...weak convective celsls
across extreme western sections of the forecast area. This
activity has occured in a region of slightly cooler mid level
temperatures...which are over extreme west and southwest sections
of the forecast area. Any additional activity will end with the
loss of solar heating.
Dry conditions are expected for Sunday. Widely scattered...weak
convection is possible for Monday afternoon...as slightly
increased instability and low level moisture returns to the
southern half of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Overall the current forecast looks on track with model differences
and similarities not having varied greatly from previous runs. As
such, the model differences will continue to be blended but actual
model differences will not have a large impact on our sensible
weather.
Period initiates with upper ridging over the Rockies and the
southern plains. Feature will remain quasi stationary through the
period, only wobbling around a little bit. Models all bring an upper
trough across the northern tier states early in the period and phase
it with a much deeper trough sitting off the eastern seaboard. This
eastern trough deepens in response and will bring a more pronounced
northwest flow aloft to the region.
As the trough passes to the north, it will drag a cold front towards
Arkansas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Front is not
overly strong or dynamic and there are some indications it may
only get into the northeast corner of the state. As such, only slight
chance to very low end chance pops are justified.
Temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal through the
period. However, the position of the synoptic scale features will
prevent any significant intrusions of deep tropical moisture
smilier to what was just experienced. So even with slightly above
normal temperatures, humidity levels will not be oppressive.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 10
Camden AR 72 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 20
Harrison AR 68 89 67 90 / 0 10 10 0
Hot Springs AR 72 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
Little Rock AR 73 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 10
Monticello AR 74 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 20
Mount Ida AR 70 89 68 90 / 0 10 10 10
Mountain Home AR 68 90 67 91 / 0 10 10 0
Newport AR 72 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 72 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 10
Russellville AR 71 90 68 92 / 0 10 10 10
Searcy AR 71 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
Stuttgart AR 73 91 69 91 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 10 and
15z...especially in terrain favored areas. An east-southeast
surface wind of 3-7 knots will prevail through the period across
all sites.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
UPDATE...
15z subjective surface streamline analysis indicates drier low
level air continuing to filter in from the northeast. Mid level
temperatures have warmed noticeably during the past 24 hours. Any
convective development this afternoon should affect areas to the
southwest of the forecast area.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1041 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.UPDATE...
15z subjective surface streamline analysis indicates drier low
level air continuing to filter in from the northeast. Mid level
temperatures have warmed noticeably during the past 24 hours. Any
convective development this afternoon should affect areas to the
southwest of the forecast area.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CDT SAT 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Scattered VFR ceilings will be seen this morning, with isolated
areas of MVFR with patchy fog mainly over southern areas...but
coverage is expected to be low. An isolated shower of thunderstorm
may also be seen over western to southern Arkansas...but coverage is
expected to be low if any form. A weak cold front will continue to
push south over the area...with light winds becoming north to
northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are small chances of convection
in the first period. Dropping the heat advisory due to lower
temperatures and humidity levels. Then a mostly dry forecast into
next week. Temperatures will moderate and become more near normal
values.
Currently the weak surface front is sagging through Arkansas,
switching winds to the northeast, and bringing lower moisture air
into the region. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s in northeast Arkansas, while lower to mid 70s central to
upper 70s over the south. Convection over Kansas and Oklahoma was
pushing south and should stay west of Arkansas, while spreading
some high clouds into the state. Aloft the upper low pressure
trough was over the eastern U.S while upper ridging over the
western U.S. Hence a weakness was over the central plains allowing
the weak cold front to sag into Arkansas and the shortwave energy
developing convection over Kansas to Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Will start with a slight chance of convection over far western and
southern Arkansas this morning, then moving it a bit more south mainly
out of Arkansas. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower today
and a heat advisory will not be needed. The northeast to east wind
flow will help filter in a drier airmass into Arkansas today and
Sunday. An afternoon isolated storm may be seen during the heat of
the day, but chance will be less than 10 percent and will leave
out of forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in across
the region into Sunday to Monday, keep any convection low. Highs
will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s, while lows mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
A flattened upper ridge will be situated from the four corners
region eastward to the lower Miss River valley early Monday. The
upper trough across southern Canada responsible for flattening the
ridge will shift to the great lakes region by Monday evening,
allowing the upper pattern to amplify quickly heading into the mid
week time frame. With high pressure in place aloft on Monday, do not
expect to see much in the way of rainfall early on. However the
northerly upper flow across the northern plains and upper midwest
will drive a front towards Arkansas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. For Tuesday into Wednesday, at least slight rain
chances will be in the forecast...first in the northeast on Tuesday,
then across much of the area Tue night and Wed to account for the
incoming front.
Temperatures will be around normal during the long term. The effects
from the influx of dry air this weekend will still be felt on Monday
to some extent. Did slightly increase highs for the first half of
next week, but with a lack of prolonged return flow and rich
moisture...pulse a reinforcing shot of dry air Wednesday
evening...heat index values during the long term will be notably
lower than what was seen the last couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Camden AR 94 72 91 69 / 10 0 10 10
Harrison AR 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 91 72 90 68 / 10 0 10 10
Little Rock AR 93 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 74 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
Mountain Home AR 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
Russellville AR 92 71 90 68 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Isolated areas of MVFR may develop with some fog mainly over
southern areas...but coverage is expected to be low. An isolated
shower of thunderstorm may also be seen over western to southern
Arkansas...but coverage is expected to be low if any form. A weak
cold front will continue to push south over the area...with light
winds becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
.None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...18/00z Taf Cycle
Kept VCTS in for a few hrs this evening at the sites acrs SRN AR
for lingering storms. VFR conds are expected thru the pd as drier
air filters into the region on NELY winds later tngt and Sat. Kept
some patchy fog acrs NRN AR late tngt/early Sat mrng. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016)
Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&
.Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10
Camden AR 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 69 89 68 88 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Little Rock AR 75 92 73 92 / 30 10 0 10
Monticello AR 75 93 74 91 / 30 10 0 10
Mount Ida AR 72 91 70 89 / 30 10 0 10
Mountain Home AR 70 89 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
Newport AR 71 92 72 91 / 20 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Russellville AR 73 92 71 91 / 30 10 0 10
Searcy AR 72 92 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
Stuttgart AR 74 91 73 91 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99