Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/17/16
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
730 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.Aviation...
VFR conditions continue across Arkansas as the region sits in, or
just south of, a fairly well defined COL. As such, winds will
decrease fairly quickly after sunset. Calm winds tonight will create
the chance for some patchy fog, leading to MVFR/IFR conditions by
morning. The chance for thunderstorms tonight north/east of KLIT is
quite low, but not non-existent.
For tomorrow, a back door cold front will approach the state from
the northeast. The front is expected to stall out in a line
approximately from the Memphis area through north central Arkansas.
Winds behind the front will be out of the northeast, while easterly
or southeasterly winds will prevail ahead of the front. After noon,
scattered cumulus around 4000 to 5000 feet should develop...with the
chances for thunderstorms near this frontal boundary to be at 40
percent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Grant-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-
Lonoke-Monroe-Perry-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-Woodruff.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...Brown
Short Term...66 / Long Term...61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
804 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming
trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat
probable for parts of the area Sunday through Tuesday. Some
relief from the heat is possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUN)
The main short term weather concern this evening will continue to be
the gusty sundowner winds near the Scherpa Fire in Santa Barbara
county. The northwest-north winds have increased during the past
couple of hours and will continue to remain gusty in that area
through the evening hours. Current SBA-Sex gradient as of 7 pm is
-2.8 mb, compared to -3.9 mb at this time last night. Wind gusts
locally up to 35 mph can be expected along the coast, and up to 40
mph in the foothills...mainly west of Goleta. Some localized
sundowner winds are expected once again late Friday afternoon into
Friday night, but most likely a notch weaker than tonight. For
more information on the Sundowner winds and associated fire danger
through Monday, please refer to the fire weather discussion below.
Otherwise satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies across the
forecast area this evening except for the smokey conditions
occurring across portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties
due to the Scherpa Fire. Some low clouds and fog could redevelop
tonight across the Central Coast. As pressure gradients begin to
trend more offshore to the north on Friday, looking for some warm
up to begin on Friday, which will become more pronounced through
the weekend. Current heatwave temperature projections for Sunday
through Tuesday look on target, as do current excessive heat watch
products.
*** From previous discussion ***
The advertised battle between the upper-level trough of low
pressure near the Pacific Northwest and the upper-level ridge of
high pressure over South Texas seems to have been won by the ridge
in our forecast area as there is little to no cloud cover anywhere
to be seen. This ridge should expand and build westward into New
Mexico through Saturday. As it does the 500-mb heights will rise
and the 1000-500 mb thickness values will climb as onshore
pressure gradients weaken. In light of this, the best chance of
marine layer stratus clouds will occur through tonight on the San
Luis Obispo central coast, then it will become hard- pressed to
get any low cloud formation.
The strong ridging aloft builds into the region even more on
Sunday as the heat wave event begins. Gas model solutions
continue to offer up near record temperatures across the region,
with the exception of the immediate coastal areas.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous levels Monday and
Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal cooling taking place in
the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat Watch for will remain in
place. There is a chance that this heatwave could the warmest
June event in over a decade with widespread record heat occurring
on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest a 30
year return interval for low levels heights and temperatures
across the region.
Model solutions for for Tuesday through next Thursday develop a
southeast flow aloft. A monsoonal-like surge could develop after
Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions with
some elevated moisture now added into latter half of next week. An
isolated afternoon thunderstorm is not impossible beginning
Wednesday, but certainly not likely as it looks to remain dry at
the lower levels.
&&
.AVIATION...17/0020Z.
At LAX, at 2300Z, there was a marine layer at 700 feet deep with a
weak inversion to 2600 feet with a temp of 18 degrees C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal TAFs with, good confidence
elsewhere. There is 40 percent chance that vfr conds will persist
through the TAF period at KSMX and KSBP. There is a 20 percent
chance of low mvfr to ifr cigs/vsbys at koxr mainly between 10 and
16Z. Otherwise, mvfr haze is expected at times at coastal TAF
sites from KSBA and south in part due to smoke from the Scherpa
fire.
KLAX...Light east winds between 10 and 18Z are expected to remain
below 7 kts. MVFR haze is possible at times through the TAF period
in part due to the Scherpa fire. However, there is a 30 percent
chance that vfr conds will persist through the TAF period.
KBUR...vfr conds are expected to persist through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...16/200 PM.
Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to
San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa
Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight
and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night
and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds
will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and
small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will
build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below
10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is
expected during the remainder of this week and the swells
generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220
will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next
Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are
not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south
facing shores are likely.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
16/800 PM.
Gusty sundowner winds in effect once again for the western
portions of the SBA South coast and Santa Ynez mountains
this evening, although winds are slightly weaker so far than
this time last night. The Refugio RAWS sensor near the
Sherpa Fire was reporting NW winds 23 mph gusting to 34 mph
as of 6 pm, compared to 32 mph gusting to 43 mph at 6 pm last
night. This due to slightly weaker SBA-Santa Maria gradient
this evening, currently at -2.2 mb as compared to -3.9 mb
at this time last evening. The Sundowner winds are expected to
continue increasing for areas west of Goleta during the next
few hours, then slowly diminish after midnight.
Elevated fire danger then expected to occur across Southwest
California Sunday through Tuesday due to the extended period of
very hot and dry conditions combined with already dry fuels.
During this time, humidities in the teens and single digits will
be common for areas away from the coast. In addition, the
Santa Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains will see
increasing fire danger Saturday through Monday during the late
afternoon and nighttime hours as Sundowner winds locally gust
over 40 mph at times in favored areas. By Saturday, temperatures
will likely climb into the 80s, and then 90s on Sunday and Monday
for areas exposed to the downslope winds. Meanwhile humidities
could lower to below 30 percent by Saturday evening, then
likely falling into the teens by Sunday and Monday (possibly
even single digits in the foothills). The combination of
gusty Sundowner winds, hot temperatures, and low humidities
could bring brief critical fire weather conditions to the
Santa Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez mountains on Sunday
and Monday (mainly late afternoon and evening hours).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Friday For zones
40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gomberg/JD
FIRE...Gomberg
AVIATION...Munroe/Gomberg
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
612 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Gradients and ridge winds have decreased early this evening with
surface winds backing off many areas. As a result web cams and
observations indicate less wind and chop on area lakes and we have
dropped the lake wind advisory early. Also, latest HRRR and model
data indicate showers will remain north of Lake Tahoe and we
trimmed them back there for tonight. Hohmann
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into
Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of
Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and
Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with
potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
SHORT TERM...
Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place
until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening
into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak
gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain
hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on
the larger lakes could reach 3 feet.
Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and
Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest
simulations push one final wave across northern California and
northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best
chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch
of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow
levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow
impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen
National Park.
Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower
80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra
will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in
the Sierra valleys. Brong
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of
high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb
to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the
Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday
and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100
degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday,
with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning
Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are
expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by
Tuesday afternoon.
For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of
the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance.
These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up
reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would
develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance
favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection),
today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above
average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the
middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east,
limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly
near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look
rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add
any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days
especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the
ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs,
so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD
AVIATION...
Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through
Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level
winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts
ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence
going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of
erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday
afternoon.
For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief
rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers
are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE
tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and
obscuration of higher peaks. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION, OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROW NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION...SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP MARITIME LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LATTER
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCES EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IT WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN DEEPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND TEND TO BECOME SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. THIS
WILL TEND TO KEEP ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND THREAT OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A MATTER OF COURSE I`VE
OFFERED ONLY A NOMINAL THREAT OF A SHOWER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THURSDAY UNDER VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUD COVER...THICKEST SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE OFFERING LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN
AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE 77 TO 84 RANGE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER
(UPPER 70S) SOUTH AND WEST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER CLOUD
COVER. WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL THEN BE
OFFERED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS
REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH MAINLY FAIR/DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PASSAGE OF A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES AND SOME LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A STRAY SHOWER
OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES BY THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE SOME ENHANCED PBL THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
I`VE MAINTAINED THIS IDEA FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH
LINES UP NICELY WITH MODELLED INSTABILITY FIELDS AND LATEST LOW-
END SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER PROGS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WHOLE SHOULD BY AND LARGE REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER BY 1-3 DEGREES
OR SO BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PER PROXIMITY OF WEAKENING
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING LIGHT EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
A MORE ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE.
AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LATEST 15/00Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN OUR REGION, WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL START ABOVE
AVERAGE AND THEN DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z, THEN SCT TO OCCNLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE FL200 AGL THEREAFTER. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS, GOVERNED HEAVILY BY TERRAIN/VALLEY INFLUENCES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 32 TO 38 PERCENT RANGE BOTH TOMORROW AND ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES SOUTH. NOCTURNAL HUMIDITIES SHOULD AMPLY RECOVER
INTO THE 85 TO 100 PERCENT BOTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING SUNDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND MID-
HUDSON VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH RIVER FLOWS CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/WFO BTV
NEAR TERM...JMG/WFO BTV
SHORT TERM...JMG/WFO BTV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JMG/WFO BTV
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/WFO BTV
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
328 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes us to our west and south tonight into
Thursday, reaching the Carolina Coast by Friday. High pressure
otherwise builds in from the north for the weekend and into the
start of the new week. A cold front approaches for the middle of
the new week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Isentropic lift associated with a weak warm front to our SW and lift
from an approaching 850-700mb shortwave combine with enough moisture
for the likelihood of rainfall over the SW zones late tonight. With
a relatively dry layer around 900-800mb, rainfall will be generally
on the light side. For areas north and east of the city, rain
chances drop off somewhat sharply as the CWA will be near the edge
of the precipitation shield. Will go with a dry forecast for eastern
Long Island and most of the CT zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Best combination of moisture and lift will reside over the SW
portion of the CWA Thursday morning with lingering chances of light
rain. All spots should be dry by noon. The amount of sunshine we
eventually get is a lower confidence forecast, but the better
chances of partly or mostly sunny conditions will be weighted
towards the NE half of the CWA. Used a blend of MET mos and
superblend guidance for high temps. Weak surface ridging from the
north then keeps us dry Thursday night
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper trough along the East Coast on Friday flattens out and moves
offshore as closed H5 high strengthens over the SW U.S. over the
weekend.
Surface low pres passes SW of the region on Friday. Some showers are
possible over far western zones Friday morning. A vigorous H5
shortwave will move in from the north Friday afternoon, possibly
touching off some showers over the Lower Hudson Valley. Will keep
POPs capped at slight chance, in line with latest guidance.
Thereafter, H5 high over the SW U.S. will strengthen, and upper
level ridging ahead of that high will build into the East Coast.
Surface high pressure will build in from the north, and this will
keep conditions warm and dry through the weekend and into the start
of the new week.
Temps will top off in the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday and
Sunday, but temps along and west of the Hudson River will climb into
the mid 80s on Sunday.
Models diverge on Monday. H5 trough remains offshore, and wave of
surface low pressure develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 12Z GFS
keeps the trough/low well offshore, but the 12Z ECMWF has the upper
trough closer to the Mainland, and this allows the surface low to
lift closer to the Northeast U.S., and spreads rain into the region.
For now, will follow Superblend guidance and WPC guidance and keep
the area warm and dry. This solution yields H8 temps close to 15C
and 1000-500 MB thicknesses of 570-572 dam. Max temps on Monday
would then climb into the low to mid 80s for coastal areas and in
the mid to upper 80s most elsewhere. Warmest temps will be along and
west of the Hudson River.
Cold front approaches on Tuesday and slowly works its way across the
region through Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible starting Monday night, and then will expect showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday as the front passes through
the region. Temps stay above normal during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pres will pass s of the region tngt. High pres
will build over the area on Thu.
Generally vfr thru the taf period. A few shwrs possible aft
8z...ending Thu mrng. Low potential for mvfr with these.
Flow thru 00z lgt most areas...tending towards the sw. Some
variability in direction can be expected. Along the immediate
coasts...there will be a sea breeze component to the flow. Mainly
vrb direction tngt into Thu...then sea breeze flow develops aft
16z.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: An ocnl gust up to 20kt possible til 01z.
KLGA TAF Comments: Significant variability in wind direction
likely til the sea breeze comes thru. Timing of the sea breeze may
be earlier than 20z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Prevailing direction thru 20z most likely
around 250 true.
KTEB TAF Comments: Winds may be vrb in direction thru 20z.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Rest of Thu...Vfr with lgt sely winds.
.Fri...Vfr with ely winds.
.Sat...Vfr with se flow.
.Sun-Mon...Vfr with sw flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will ramp up from the south late this afternoon into early
this evening as a stronger belt of lower-level winds develops along
the Jersey Shore and heads toward New York Harbor and the western
end of Long Island. This should result in a period of sustained
winds of around 20 kts with pockets of gusts of 25-30 kts mainly in
Jamaica Bay, the lower part of New York Harbor and offshore of The
Rockaways and Long Beach. Seas on the ocean waters may reach up to 3
feet offshore. The thought is either the criteria will reach Small
Craft Advisory conditions for 2-3 hours as well as in small areal
pockets so a headline will not be issued at this time. Winds should
subside later this evening. Winds should shift more to an easterly
component overnight and hold that way through Thursday night at
speeds largely under 10 kts.
Low pressure passes west of the waters on Friday, and then high
pressure builds into the region for the weekend. Will expect sub-SCA
conditions through the weekend.
Early in the new week, the pressure gradient tightens between high
pressure to the west and low pressure over the open Atlantic waters.
Seas will build to 4-6 feet on the ocean. Remains to be seen if the
gradient tightens up enough for 25+ KT wind gusts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall late tonight into Friday morning will be light, up to
around a tenth of an inch.
The next chance for significant widespread rainfall will then be
Tuesday through Wednesday of next week with the approach and
passage of a cold front. It is too soon to tell how much rain will
fall.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...99/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
300 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain in control through this weekend,
resulting in cool nights and warm afternoons with low humidity.
A sub-tropical low pressure will be south of New Eng early next
week and will need to be monitored. Otherwise, warmer and more
humid conditions are expected early next week with a risk of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another quiet night with weak high pres in control and upper level
confluence keeping deeper moisture confined sw of New Eng. Just a
few clouds around tonight. With dry airmass in place, temps will
fall sharply tonight with lows ranging through the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Robust mid level trof/shortwave moves southeast from the Gt Lakes
Thu reaching Mid Atlc region by daybreak Fri. The assocd low pres
will move off mid atlc coast but remain well south of New Eng.
Persistent nw flow aloft will keep deeper moisture to the south
so a continuation of mosunny skies expected Thu and pt-cloudy Thu
night.
Slight cooling noted at 925/850 mb and weak BL flow will result in
seabreezes along both coasts so temps will be a bit cooler Thu.
Highs ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s with some mid 80s
possible interior valleys and continuation of low dewpoints. Lows
in the 50s again Thu night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mild to warm days & cool nights through Sunday
* Hot and humid weather expected early next week
Overview...Quite the quiet weather period for southern New England
into early next week. There remains some uncertainty in the models
with regards to a low pressure system developing south of the area.
The ECMWF has been very consistent in developing this low, while the
GFS has been quite inconsistent. The EPS mean and its members are
coming more in line with the operational ECMWF with developing this
system and bringing it back towards southern New England on Monday.
The only inconsistency here is it has slowed this process way down,
previously bringing it towards southern New England on Saturday. The
GEFS means/members do develop a low but keep it well east of the
region.
Therefore, there is quite a bit of uncertainty for the beginning of
next week, namely Sunday and Monday when this low may affect the
area. Aside from this forecast challenge, high pressure dominates
our forecast through the weekend. Early next week, low pressure will
move through Quebec, bringing a cold front and showers through
southern New England. The timing is a bit uncertain at this point,
with the low south and/or east of southern New England affecting the
model solutions.
Temperatures...Relatively mild temperatures are expected through the
period with highs generally warming into next week. Exception will
be Friday when a shortwave moves through the region, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures with it. Summer will arrive Monday
very appropriately with highs into the 80s and even 90s forecast at
this time. Low temperatures will also be right around normal for
mid June with a few variations about 5 degrees below normal to 5
degrees above normal.
Precipitation...Expect a fairly dry forecast for much of the period.
Expecting dry weather for the weekend at this point with the ECMWF
keeping the low from affecting our area until Monday. This and/or a
cold frontal passage late Monday or Tuesday will be the next chance
of rain for the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Seabreezes likely
on both coasts Thursday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze likely developing by
midday Thursday.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday through Sunday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and
variable winds.
Monday...Moderate confidence. Likely VFR conditions and dry
weather. Low probability of scattered showers and brief periods of
MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence.
Mainly tranquil boating weather through Thursday night, with
light winds and seas.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High Confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas increase
Monday with seas reaching 5 to 6 feet on the southern waters and
winds remaining below SCA criteria. This occurs as a combination
of a low pressure system and a cold front move over the waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
300 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain in control through this weekend,
resulting in cool nights and warm afternoons with low humidity.
A sub-tropical low pressure will be south of New Eng early next
week and will need to be monitored. Otherwise, warmer and more
humid conditions are expected early next week with a risk of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another quiet night with weak high pres in control and upper level
confluence keeping deeper moisture confined sw of New Eng. Just a
few clouds around tonight. With dry airmass in place, temps will
fall sharply tonight with lows ranging through the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Robust mid level trof/shortwave moves southeast from the Gt Lakes
Thu reaching Mid Atlc region by daybreak Fri. The assocd low pres
will move off mid atlc coast but remain well south of New Eng.
Persistent nw flow aloft will keep deeper moisture to the south
so a continuation of mosunny skies expected Thu and pt-cloudy Thu
night.
Slight cooling noted at 925/850 mb and weak BL flow will result in
seabreezes along both coasts so temps will be a bit cooler Thu.
Highs ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s with some mid 80s
possible interior valleys and continuation of low dewpoints. Lows
in the 50s again Thu night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mild to warm days & cool nights through Sunday
* Hot and humid weather expected early next week
Overview...Quite the quiet weather period for southern New England
into early next week. There remains some uncertainty in the models
with regards to a low pressure system developing south of the area.
The ECMWF has been very consistent in developing this low, while the
GFS has been quite inconsistent. The EPS mean and its members are
coming more in line with the operational ECMWF with developing this
system and bringing it back towards southern New England on Monday.
The only inconsistency here is it has slowed this process way down,
previously bringing it towards southern New England on Saturday. The
GEFS means/members do develop a low but keep it well east of the
region.
Therefore, there is quite a bit of uncertainty for the beginning of
next week, namely Sunday and Monday when this low may affect the
area. Aside from this forecast challenge, high pressure dominates
our forecast through the weekend. Early next week, low pressure will
move through Quebec, bringing a cold front and showers through
southern New England. The timing is a bit uncertain at this point,
with the low south and/or east of southern New England affecting the
model solutions.
Temperatures...Relatively mild temperatures are expected through the
period with highs generally warming into next week. Exception will
be Friday when a shortwave moves through the region, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures with it. Summer will arrive Monday
very appropriately with highs into the 80s and even 90s forecast at
this time. Low temperatures will also be right around normal for
mid June with a few variations about 5 degrees below normal to 5
degrees above normal.
Precipitation...Expect a fairly dry forecast for much of the period.
Expecting dry weather for the weekend at this point with the ECMWF
keeping the low from affecting our area until Monday. This and/or a
cold frontal passage late Monday or Tuesday will be the next chance
of rain for the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Seabreezes likely
on both coasts Thursday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze likely developing by
midday Thursday.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday through Sunday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and
variable winds.
Monday...Moderate confidence. Likely VFR conditions and dry
weather. Low probability of scattered showers and brief periods of
MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence.
Mainly tranquil boating weather through Thursday night, with
light winds and seas.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High Confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas increase
Monday with seas reaching 5 to 6 feet on the southern waters and
winds remaining below SCA criteria. This occurs as a combination
of a low pressure system and a cold front move over the waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
140 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes will track southeast toward
the Carolina coast by Friday. High pressure will build in from the
north this weekend. A cold front will approach early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Adjusted high temp forecast for some spots, mainly over the
coastal areas to account for the sea breeze progress.
Temps get to the middle 80s, but cooler at the shore where classic
sea breeze has formed. Have continued to follow RAP wind fields
which form an "Ambrose Jet" just off the NJ coast and up into the
Rockaways by late afternoon, with gusts to 25 mph.
Sunny for the most part, but some cirrus will be moving in from
the west late in the day.
There will be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches
from mid afternoon into the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Based on available guidance, differential mid level WAA should
product enough lift for light rain to fall from a mid level cloud
deck and brush the western portions of the region Thursday
morning. This will likely occur during the morning rush.
PoP raised to likely for NE NJ and NYC, and drop off quickly to
the east with no rain forecast for Southern CT and Suffolk County.
An rain is also forecast to end by noon.
Temps are closer to he warmer NAM MOS, though clouds should keep
it cooler than today.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period generally starts with troughing over the East,
then an extension of a strengthening upper level ridge over the
Southwestern US builds across the country and into the Northeast
for the latter part of the weekend and into early next week.
Vigorous shortwave tracks from the Ohio Valley to the Mid
Atlantic coast on Fri. Have kept Fri dry for now, though a mid
level shortwave tracking swd from New England may trigger a few
showers during the aftn N of NYC. Soundings look capped in the mid
levels, so there shouldn`t be any thunder.
Deep layered ridging should then build in for the weekend and into
early next week, with H5 heights around 592 dm and H8 temps around
17C on Mon. This would yield highs well into the 80s for most
locations, although a SW flow will keep temps closer to the 80
degree mark at the coast. Heights begin to fall Tue as the
center of the strong high over the Southwest shifts west and a
longwave trough over central Canada drops into the Great Lakes and
Northeast.
The ECMWF had been less progressive with the upper trough exiting
this weekend thus resulting in a cutoff low developing over the
Atlantic and retrograding back toward the mainland. This soln has
been discounted for now as an outlier solution.
A cold front moves across on Tue bringing the chance of
showers/tstms during the aftn/eve. Timing of the fropa is
uncertain, and the front may even end up stalling over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pres will pass s of the region tngt. High pres
will build over the area on Thu.
Generally vfr thru the taf period. A few shwrs possible aft
8z...ending Thu mrng. Low potential for mvfr with these.
Flow thru 00z lgt most areas...tending towards the sw. Some
variability in direction can be expected. Along the immediate
coasts...there will be a sea breeze component to the flow. Mainly
vrb direction tngt into Thu...then sea breeze flow develops aft
16z.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: An ocnl gust up to 20kt possible til 01z.
KLGA TAF Comments: Significant variability in wind direction
likely til the sea breeze comes thru. Timing of the sea breeze may
be earlier than 20z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Prevailing direction thru 20z most likely
around 250 true.
KTEB TAF Comments: Winds may be vrb in direction thru 20z.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Rest of Thu...Vfr with lgt sely winds.
.Fri...Vfr with ely winds.
.Sat...Vfr with se flow.
.Sun-Mon...Vfr with sw flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Afternoon sea breeze circulation could produce onshore winds to
near SCA levels on the ocean and the Great South Bay, but
especially in the NY Bight where an SCA may eventually be needed.
Would not be surprised to see sustained winds approaching 25 kt
and/or gusts close to 30 kt south of the Rockaways.
Otherwise, quiet conditions expected through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Tongue
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...Goodman/24/Tongue
HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
147 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the area from west to east this morning. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon after a brief
break in precipitation later this morning. There is a slight risk
for severe storms today, with damaging winds and large hail the
primary threats. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Showers and scattered storms which affected much of the area have
just about departed NW Ohio counties as of 1445Z. Some low clouds
should linger over the next few hours across eastern portions of
the forecast area, but otherwise a good deal of insolation is
expected for most locations this afternoon. Main forecast question
still centers on severe weather potential this afternoon/early
evening. Should see fairly rapid destabilization in the 18Z-20Z
time period. Water vapor imagery depicts next upstream low
amplitude short wave across central Illinois this afternoon and
would suspect renewed convective development after 19Z as this
wave approaches. Max instability axis should focus across
southeast half/southeast third of forecast area with RAP short
term progs depicting 2000-2500 surface based CAPEs across these
locations. Deep layer shear should remain on the marginal side,
generally in the 20-30 knot range. Residual outflow boundary may
serve as initial convective focus this afternoon, and generally
expecting multicell to be the main convective mode with an
isolated wind/hail threat inline with latest SPC 1230Z Day 1
outlook. Updated zones will be sent shortly mainly to account for
lower PoPs over next few hours, but otherwise previous forecast
left as is.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The main concern today and tonight will be with severe weather
potential.
Atmosphere is fairly juiced this morning with dewpoints already
creeping up into the upper 60s across the west/southwestern CWA.
PWATS per SPC Mesoanalysis are around 2 inches, with strong
moisture advection in progress. The warm front is lifting northward,
with showers and storms associated with isentropic ascent/shortwave
ejecting out of the low in our west and southwest. This
precipitation is expected to continue to drift north and eastward
across the CWA with the lifting warm front.
As far as severe weather concerns this morning-it appears fairly
marginal. Strong to severe wind gusts are certainly possible this
morning with ample moisture, decent instability, and marginal mid
level lapse rates of 5-6C across the west. Additionally, with
proximity to the warm front, models suggest 0-1 km bulk shear is
enhanced to around 15 to 20 kts. Given the history of damaging winds
with storms overnight and the above factors, I can`t rule severe
wx out despite the poor diurnal timing.
By the early afternoon the CWA will be firmly in the warm sector,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. The developing surface
low is over WI at 15Z and will continue to deepen as it drifts
eastward into SE lower Michigan by Thursday morning. Earlier model
runs had an area of strong subsidence in place over much of the CWA
through late afternoon, which was limiting concerns for severe
weather-and a few still hold with that idea. Some of the latest
higher resolution runs however show a more zonal 500mb flow over the
CWA through the afternoon-with weak disturbances moving through the
flow in the early/mid afternoon. Should we have a less amplified
flow aloft, there will be good potential for at least marginal
severe weather this afternoon. At the surface, models have a
prefrontal trough developing before 00z. Lingering outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection may also serve as another
potential trigger. Depending on how the early morning/afternoon
cloud cover and precip goes, sfc based instability could max out in
the 2-3K J/KG range by peak heating. Even without partial clearing,
instability will remain sufficiently high with the abundant moisture.
Furthermore, mid level lapse rates steepen in the afternoon with the
elevated mixed layer infiltrating the region-approaching 7C/KM by
21Z.
While instability and moisture are definitely in good shape, the
biggest limitation will be the lack of effective shear--which--even
with the more aggressive model solutions--appears to be only 10-20
knots by 00z. However-if we can get the prefrontal trough to develop
or perhaps get development off of any outflow boundaries from the
morning convection-I think we could see some severe weather. Models
disagree on afternoon storm development-but most suggest a SW to NE
oriented line of storms developing roughly between US 31 and I 69 at
some point after 18z, then progressing eastward through 6Z. SPC has
included these areas in a slight risk for their day one outlook-and
have a marginal risk elsewhere. This seems reasonable given the
factors in play for this afternoon. Overall-lower confidence in the
severe weather this afternoon given the conditional nature of things
and model differences.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday the potent vort max/closed low and 60 knot 500mb jet dive
into the Great Lakes, then sink southeastward into West Virginia by
Thursday night. Thursday morning, the low pressure system is
vertically stacked and situated over northern Lower Michigan, with
the cold front situated across the eastern CWA. Synoptic forcing is
strongest over the thumb region at this time, but expands across
much of our cwa through 18Z before strong subsidence arrives. I
boosted pops to likely through early Thursday in the northeast, with
just a chance for thunderstorms. After 18z kept just chance pops in
as moisture begins to dwindle and subsidence from the approaching
high takes over.
The real concern for Thursday is hazardous marine conditions for
small crafts and swimmers. A decent pressure rise/fall couplet and
tightening gradient behind the exiting surface low will lead to
northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots through early afternoon,
becoming more northerly at 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon/evening.
Given the long fetch over Lake Michigan waves will build to 3 to 5
feet before noon, with wave periods lengthening to 5-6 seconds
thereafter. These factors coupled with the nearly shore-normal wave
angle of approach will lead to strong rip current development at
both Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong structural and
longshore currents are also expected, especially once wave direction
becomes more northerly later in the day. Conditions will be life-
threatening to swimmers. As is always a concern on the Great Lakes
in June, nearshore water temperatures are only in the 50s. This can
make it even easier for a swimmer to become exhausted or cramp up.
For Friday and into the weekend, a broad upper level ridge extending
from the desert southwest expands over the Great lakes region,
bringing yet another dry period to the forecast area. With the
building ridge, sunny skies and rising temperatures will once again
return. Afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday will reach into the 80s,
with some locations getting close to 90 again Sunday afternoon.
The upper level ridge is forced southward by low pressure traversing
the canadian prairie by the start of next week, with our area under
relatively zonal flow aloft. The first shortwave/sfc cold front
crosses through late Monday afternoon/evening, bringing our first
chances for showers and storms. As the low deepens over
Ontario/Quebec and sinks southward Tuesday, the long wave trough
expands southward into the Great Lakes, bringing additional forcing
for precipitation to the area. With this set up, kept the reasonable
consensus chance/slight chance pops in the going forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conds xpcd nr term within broad warm sector sewd of
intense bowling ball dropping se out of ern MN. Insolation and wk
rtn flw alg wrn periphery of analyzed outflw bndry fm morning storms
noted acrs ne IL into nw IN and area of focused mass convergent
ongoing within subtle sfc based confluence zone extending ewd acrs
nrn IN. Suspect given fvrbl combo of mass flux within rapidly
destabilizing airmass that storms will initiate by 19Z in nw IN and
then grow upscale as they turn sewd within ll theta-e gradient. Thus
will keep KSBN terminal dry as aggregate lk breeze pushes in yet
mention vcts w/future amendment planned based on eventual dvlpmnt.
Otrws lt evening pd remains quite uncertain tied to swd extent of
convn dvlpg currently acrs wrn WI. Tail end of robust conv line may
yet pose probs invof of KSBN ltr but will defer in fvr of monitoring
upstream evolution.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
The mid-level ridge remained anchored across the central U.S., with
southerly surface winds in place as the CWA was wedged between low
pressure to the west and high pressure to the southeast. Some cloud
cover lingered across far east central Kansas due to the
precipitation from the morning MCV. As a result, afternoon
temperatures there were a few degrees cooler than originally
forecast, but readings reached near 100 degrees across north central
Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat
indices ranged from the mid 90s east to 100-105 degrees across north
central and central Kansas. A weak convergence zone was noted in
northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, with visible satellite
showing some shallow cumulus popping up. With some isentropic lift
present on the 310K surface, the HRRR and RAP show the potential for
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up across southeast
Kansas late this afternoon into this evening, and this activity may
extend northward into east central Kansas. As a result, have added
slight chance PoPs. Mesoscale analysis showed little to no cap in
place with 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, so if storms are
able to develop they may be strong. However, wind shear continues to
look weak at 20kts or less so it should be difficult for storms to
sustain themselves for long. The main hazards with any strong storms
would be hail and gusty winds.
With the ridge still in place, expect another hot day tomorrow.
However, models show 850mb temperatures being slightly cooler
compared to today. As a result, have Friday high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler across north central/central Kansas with
readings expected to range from the mid 90s east to the upper 90s
west. Models are still showing dewpoints reaching into the upper
60s to low/mid 70s, which would push afternoon heat indices into the
103 to 108 degree range. As a result, the Excessive Heat Watch for
Friday has been upgraded to a Heat Advisory for the entire outlook
area. A somewhat stationary boundary may be in place across central
Kansas by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This nearby boundary
combined with an embedded shortwave within the mid-level ridge
across north central Kansas may help to produce some scattered
storms by mid to late afternoon. Due to the low confidence in the
timing and location of any storms, only have slight chance PoPs at
this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Friday Night through Sunday...
Friday evening and overnight provides an interesting low-probability
setup with potential for thunderstorm development across parts of
the area. Expect extreme mid level lapse rates across the entire
region, but the location and extent of instability will depend on
quality of low level moisture. Right now this appears to be better
focused to the southwest, or at least over SW parts of the forecast
area with a pretty good MUCAPE gradient increasing from NE to SW
across the region. There are signs of convergent flow in the low
levels and on a weak low level jet during the evening and overnight
hours from NW into central and SE Kansas and this added moisture
convergence could be sufficient for thunderstorm development in the
evening. Furthermore, there is upslope flow focused into NE Colorado
and SE Nebraska and if this allows convection to grow upscale and
organize a cold pool in this area, could see it propagating along
the convergence zone toward central KS. Again, this is low
probability, but there is a chance for either or both scenarios to
play out through Friday night.
Saturday looks to be slightly cooler with flow from the southeast
being a bit cooler although with neutral or slight moisture
advection. Have also forecast a bit cooler due to potential for some
cloud debris during the day as well. Current forecast is for heat
indices to a bit lower but still have some potential to be quite hot
if staying clear and/or higher dewpoints. With the excessive heat
watch already in effect, will maintain it as-is through Sunday as
things look a bit warmer yet for Sunday and with a much better
chance of being capped off to convection and precipitation and cloud
free.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Monday appears to be the warmest day within the extended period with
high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indicies approaching
100. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, knocking high temperatures back
into the upper 80s to near 90. Thunderstorm chances also return with
the frontal passage. Model guidance suggests slight thunderstorm
chances will be continue through the remainder of the period as an
upper level trough across the Great Lakes region skirts the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
VFR expected through the majority of the forecast period. Moist
airmass with clear skies and light winds may saturate KTOP at the
sfc with temporary MVFR conditions just before sunrise.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg
AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
The mid-level ridge axis has become centered over the central U.S.,
with models showing this ridge strengthening and becoming more
amplified on Thursday. Light southerly winds were in place this
afternoon with the region wedged between surface low pressure to the
east and high pressure to the southeast. Observations showed a weak
convergence zone across central and south central Kansas, with
visible satellite showing some scattered cumulus developing along
this area of convergence. A moist airmass was in place over east
central to southeast Kansas with mesoscale analysis showing no cap
in place. These conditions combined with steep lapse rates was
resulting in decent instability of 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based
CAPE in east central Kansas. Additionally, models are showing the
potential for a weak embedded wave to develop within the ridge axis
late this afternoon into early this evening. The weak forcing from
this wave along with the presence of some isentropic lift on the
310K-315K surfaces may potentially result in the development of some
very isolated storms across portions of central and east central
Kansas. Despite the weak shear values, any storms that develop may
have the potential to become strong with the hazards being hail and
wind but storms would likely be short-lived. Due to the low-
confidence in the potential let along location of any storm
development, have only slight chance PoPs in at this time, but will
need to closely monitor the short-term trends. Additional scattered
storms may develop across far eastern Kansas overnight from
additional isentropic lift and may potentially clip extreme
northeast Kansas early Thursday morning. Otherwise expect
predominantly dry conditions through Thursday across the outlook
area.
The main focus for the short-term shifts to the high heat concerns.
With afternoon heat indices in the low 100s this afternoon across
east central Kansas, a heat advisory remains in effect. This heat
advisory has been expanded to include the entire outlook area for
Thursday as high temperatures are expected to soar into the upper
90s to low 100s. Models show a moisture axis extending northward
across the area, with the higher dewpoints (low/mid 70s) focused
across northeast and east central Kansas. The combination of hot
temperatures and moist conditions will likely result in heat indices
surging into the mid/upper 100s Thursday afternoon. We will need to
monitor these temperature/dewpoint conditions for Thursday to
determine whether or not any locations will need to be upgraded to
an Excessive Heat Warning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
Thursday Night through Saturday...
The forecast challenge for the Friday and Saturday time period is
heat and to a lessor extent, thunderstorm chances. A large scale
warm upper ridge is forecast to extend from the southwest U.S.
northeast through the plains during this period. Thermal ridge
remains to our west with continued hot temperatures. Since the
overall airmass is not changing during this period, expect highs
to reach the mid/upper 90s Fri-Sun. Dewpoint temperatures are
tricky. The models suggest that the boundary layer moist axis will
extend across eastern KS Friday and Saturday. The 30mb AGL
dewpoints on the GFS/NAM show an area high dewpoints or moisture
pool, over eastern OK and southeast KS this afternoon. Even with
afternoon mixing, dewpoints were in the upper 70s in this area.
This moist axis is forecast to extend over eastern KS this
weekend. Therefore, forecast of afternoon dewpoints in the
lower/middle 70s seems reasonable with lower values to the west.
The other consideration will be thunderstorm chances. Although the
airmass will be unstable, lack of an identifiable trigger is a
problem. Forecast small POPS Friday night into Sat morning to
account for the small chance of an MCS in the area. Otherwise, will
forecast dry weather.
Given the prolonged nature of the heat event and being early in the
season, elected to go with a excessive heat watch over the weekend.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Sustained southerly flow will allow hot and humid conditions to
continue through the weekend. With heat indicies approaching 105
degrees through Sunday, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued
through 00Z Monday. The only signal for precipitation in the
extended period arrives Monday into Tuesday as a weak cold front
progresses across the CWA. Scattered thunderstorm chances continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough
moves across portions of the central and northern plains. High
temperatures behind the cold front are expected to cool back into
the upper 80s and lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will be light, shifting from west to south this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
KSZ008>012-020>024-034.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Baerg/Johnson
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Excessive heat will linger through at least the weekend as a
mid/upper ridge builds over the Central Conus and an excessive heat
watch will be issued for much of the area from Friday through
Sunday. With limited advection of low level moisture...the PBL
should gradually begin to dry out...especially along and west of I-
35 so the higher heat indices are expected to remain along and east
of I-35 through much of the period. Otherwise...a persistence-type
forecast will be issued with little change anticipated from day-to-
day. Warm mid-lvl temperatures should preclude more widespread deep
moist convection although a rogue storm or two may develop through
the period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Hot and dry weather conditions will linger through the
beginning of the week. As we move toward the middle of the week we
may see a brief break from the heat and the GFS/ECMWF both break
down the mid/upper ridge driving a cold front south bisecting Kansas
Tue/Wed. Maintained low probabilities for storms and trended
temperatures down.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast valid
period. Upper ridge will remain in place over the area with
weak to modest southerly flow at the surface. Strong diurnal
heating may result in isolated showers/storms during the late
afternoon/evening with potential for downburst winds. However
due to the isolated nature will omit from the terminals.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 76 101 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 75 102 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 75 101 75 99 / 20 10 10 10
ElDorado 76 99 74 98 / 20 10 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 77 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 73 104 71 103 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 72 104 72 102 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 76 104 76 103 / 20 10 10 10
McPherson 74 103 75 100 / 20 10 10 10
Coffeyville 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 10
Iola 76 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ048>053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across
the Central US with a long fetch of drier ad advecting from Mexico
across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. There is a
weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a weak ripple in
the 500mb height field. Several Surface troughs are in place within
the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest Nebraska, and a second
orientated near Hays. Near both of these features Cu fields have
develops, but the more impressive updrafts near the convergence zone
near a Hays also correlated with approximate location of upper level
shortwave trough.
This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into
the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east
temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory
criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak
mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as
trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values
with further drops in Td`s expected.
Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far
eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and
decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends
keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept
thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only
model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east,
however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values
holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on
soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution
guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction
I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today
(if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F
once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index
values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief
period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is
low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with
slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next
week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure
throughout the period.
Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and
centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region.
On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert
southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area
Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of
Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this
time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before
advancing again on Saturday.
The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into
Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the
weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions
become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure
over the High Plains.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region
early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold
front sags south towards the area.
The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the
mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100
degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s
early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. South winds should increase during the early TAF period
with gusts 15-20 kt possible through sunset. Then winds should
remain below 12kt through the remaining TAF period. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop over north central Kansas and south
central Nebraska. At this time this activity is not expected to
impact either terminal, though there is a slight chance at KMCK.
No thunderstorm mention was included due to the last of confidence.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
249 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft over northern Mexico will strengthen and
expand northward bringing a strong warming trend for inland areas
through Monday. A coastal eddy may develop on Monday night
bringing a return of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog
and a cooling trend for Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
High pressure aloft over northern Mexico will strengthen and
expand northward bringing a strong warming trend for inland areas
through Monday. High temperatures will warm to near average
today...to 4 to 8 degrees above average Saturday...12 to 18
degrees above average on Sunday...and 15 to 20 degrees above
average on Monday. This could push the hottest high temperatures
on Monday to around 120 in the lower deserts...112 in the upper
deserts...and near 110 in the inland valleys.
The GFS continues to show a coastal eddy developing Monday night
and has been doing so since last weekend. High pressure aloft will
also weaken slightly for Tuesday through Thursday. This would
bring several degrees of cooling for valley and inland coastal
areas Tuesday with lesser cooling farther inland followed by
lesser cooling on Wednesday and little change on Thursday.
The return and slow deepening of the marine layer would bring a
return of night and morning low clouds and fog to areas near the
coast as early as late Monday night and early Tuesday...with the
low clouds spreading farther inland the following nights.
The GFS does bring some mid and high level moisture northward
across the area Saturday into early Sunday...and again Tuesday
into early Wednesday. This moisture is mostly above 600
mb...sufficient for afternoon convective clouds near the
mountains...but marginal for thunderstorm development.
&&
.AVIATION...
170900Z...Coast/Valleys...Mostly clear skies will continue across
the region through Friday. Patchy coastal low clouds could develop
late tonight between 10-14Z, but confidence is low for cigs at
coastal airports for any appreciable amount of time. If cigs occur,
they would be around 900 feet MSL.
Mtns/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted visibility.
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM...Breezy conditions will develop over the outer coastal
waters each afternoon and evening through Sunday with gusts 15-20 kt
at times. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected through
Tuesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 AM...Elevated surf conditions will continue in similar fashion
today, so the High Surf Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement have
been extended through this evening. Check those hazard messages,
LAXCFWSGX, for the details. Swell and surf will gradually subside
this weekend.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys-
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for San Diego
County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Orange County
Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
232 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers north of about Marysville today and
this evening shifting eastward out of the forecast area on
Saturday. A slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Below
normal temperatures today and Saturday warming to above normal
Sunday. Dry next week with daytime highs well above normal through
mid week then cooling back to near normal by the end of the week.
.DISCUSSION...
Upper low pressure system that has brought cooler temperatures and
Norcal showers over the last couple days has shifted southward
with its center now located a few hundred miles off the northern
California coast. Weak disturbance rotating around this low and
through northern California bringing scattered light showers to
the far north state this morning. Scattered light showers are
likely to continue across the northern portions of the CWA today
as the low remains parked offshore. Stability proggs are showing
some instability in this region this afternoon so kept a threat of
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast today. Upper low finally
begins its movement eastward tonight moving inland into the
Pacific northwest on Saturday. A week upper trough rotating around
the south end of the low will bring a continued threat of showers
across the north state during the day Saturday but by the end of
the day, High pressure building back over the region should be
enough to end any shower threat. Continued below normal
temperatures today will warm on Saturday but still remain below
normal for this time of year. Ridging continues to strengthen on
Sunday as a high pressure system over the four corners U.S
retrogrades westward. Daytime temperatures warm back up to near or
a little above normal Sunday on their way upwards towards well
above normal temperatures early next week. By Monday...Daytime
highs warm to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with
subsidence under the increasing ridging bringing mainly fair
skies.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure remains in control for Tuesday and Wednesday with
above normal temperatures and Valley highs near 100 degrees.
Latest run of the GFS depicts some monsoon moisture being drawn up
on western edge of the ridge on Wednesday with a chance for
showers across higher elevations. Other model solutions not as
aggressive with dry forecast continuing. For now, have kept with
dry forecast but something to monitor as we head toward next week.
Ridge begins to shift to the east on Thursday with a trough likely
meandering across the area into the weekend. This would allow for
cooler temperatures and perhaps a shower or two but differences
remain this far out. Main change to going forecast was to cool off
temperatures by a few degrees on Thursday as all the latest
guidance is substantially cooler than advertised forecast.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
The exception will be brief MVFR conditions in showers or
thunderstorms over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains.
Southerly winds generally 8-15kts with a few gusts to 20kts
through the Delta and surrounding areas.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
232 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers north of about Marysville today and
this evening shifting eastward out of the forecast area on
Saturday. A slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Below
normal temperatures today and Saturday warming to above normal
Sunday. Dry next week with daytime highs well above normal through
mid week then cooling back to near normal by the end of the week.
.DISCUSSION...
Upper low pressure system that has brought cooler temperatures and
Norcal showers over the last couple days has shifted southward
with its center now located a few hundred miles off the northern
California coast. Weak disturbance rotating around this low and
through northern California bringing scattered light showers to
the far north state this morning. Scattered light showers are
likely to continue across the northern portions of the CWA today
as the low remains parked offshore. Stability proggs are showing
some instability in this region this afternoon so kept a threat of
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast today. Upper low finally
begins its movement eastward tonight moving inland into the
Pacific northwest on Saturday. A week upper trough rotating around
the south end of the low will bring a continued threat of showers
across the north state during the day Saturday but by the end of
the day, High pressure building back over the region should be
enough to end any shower threat. Continued below normal
temperatures today will warm on Saturday but still remain below
normal for this time of year. Ridging continues to strengthen on
Sunday as a high pressure system over the four corners U.S
retrogrades westward. Daytime temperatures warm back up to near or
a little above normal Sunday on their way upwards towards well
above normal temperatures early next week. By Monday...Daytime
highs warm to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with
subsidence under the increasing ridging bringing mainly fair
skies.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure remains in control for Tuesday and Wednesday with
above normal temperatures and Valley highs near 100 degrees.
Latest run of the GFS depicts some monsoon moisture being drawn up
on western edge of the ridge on Wednesday with a chance for
showers across higher elevations. Other model solutions not as
aggressive with dry forecast continuing. For now, have kept with
dry forecast but something to monitor as we head toward next week.
Ridge begins to shift to the east on Thursday with a trough likely
meandering across the area into the weekend. This would allow for
cooler temperatures and perhaps a shower or two but differences
remain this far out. Main change to going forecast was to cool off
temperatures by a few degrees on Thursday as all the latest
guidance is substantially cooler than advertised forecast.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
The exception will be brief MVFR conditions in showers or
thunderstorms over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains.
Southerly winds generally 8-15kts with a few gusts to 20kts
through the Delta and surrounding areas.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring breezy winds and cool temperatures through
this evening. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north
of Interstate 80 again later tonight and Saturday morning. Summer
conditions will return Sunday with potential for afternoon highs
to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Low pressure will remain off the Oregon coast keeping afternoon
winds a little breezy. Gusts on area lakes will approach 30 mph
today and tomorrow resulting in choppy conditions. While a Lake
Wind Advisory is not in effect, one may be issued later if
late morning winds are slightly higher than currently forecast. It
is best to plan for the lakes to be hazardous especially to those
that are visiting and unfamiliar with the region`s typical
afternoon wind patterns. Gusts along the Sierra Front will
approach 35 mph as well.
Otherwise, low chances of showers linger for northern California
and extreme northwestern Nevada. Chances of thunderstorms are
around 10%, so some afternoon rumbles are not out of the question
for Lassen, Modoc, and northern Washoe Counties. Elsewhere,
conditions will remain dry as low pressure lifts out of the region
Saturday and Sunday. As a result of the resurgent ridging,
temperatures will rapidly climb each afternoon. The thermal trough
will shift over the Sierra by Sunday resulting in light winds and
temperatures in the upper 80s for Western Nevada and upper 70s in
the Sierra. Boyd
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
Minor changes were made to the extended forecast this cycle. The
upper ridge is showing signs of drifting east in the model data but
the ECMWF keeps it in place for a little longer as an upper trough
starts to drop southeast along the Pac NW coast. This would support
increased winds in southwest flow but less chance of pcpn as
moisture return is cut off.
On the other hand...the GFS is leaning more toward the ridge
drifting east and developing southerly flow in the mid levels that
would support an influx of mid level moisture along with instability
leading to a better chance of convection each afternoon starting
Tuesday.
The GEFS ensemble members support both of the above solutions but
show a little more support for the GFS. Thus...we have increased
pops slightly each day...but will not go up to 15 percent as yet.
This will keep mention of convection out of the forecast for now. We
have also increased cloud cover in the afternoon each day.
High temperatures will remain above average through the extended
period with near 100 for the Western Nevada Basin and Range Monday
through Wednesday. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
Presence of an upper level low off the west coast will keep the
possibility of showers over the far northwest part of the forecast
area through Saturday. Surface winds today will be a little lighter
than yesterday as this low starts to fill and the gradient weakens.
Gusts of 25-30 knots are possible for the primary terminals with
gusts over the Sierra approaching 45-50 kts. This will result in
continued area of turbulence aloft.
Winds decrease a little more for Saturday with gusts of 20-25 kts
for the terminals. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1050 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend
and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward
from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:40 PM PDT Thursday...Light rain showers
have diminished a bit in coverage over the North Bay during the
past few hours, yet satellite and radar imagery shows what appears
to be another around of showers approaching the North Bay
coastline at this hour. Do expect isolated to scattered showers to
persist through the evening over this region while most locations
south of the Golden Gate remain dry. However, cannot rule out a
shower or two around San Francisco or as far south as Pescadero
through the night. With region-wide temperatures generally in the
60s this evening, should see most areas cool down into the mid 50s
overnight. Also expecting some coastal clouds to develop late in
the night into early Friday morning ahead of the nearly stationary
boundary to the north. With that said, the ongoing forecast
remains on track for tonight and no updates are needed at this
time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 02:50 PM PDT Thursday... Afternoon KMUX
radar imagery continues to show scattered showers moving across
the North Bay this afternoon. Spotter reports and automated gauges
have verified that some of the showers are actually reaching the
ground. A sampling of reports over the last six hours indicates
that places reporting rain received a few hundredths with the two
highest reports at a tenth near Monte Rio. For the rest of this
afternoon and tonight expect scattered showers to continue with
the greatest likelihood north of the Golden Gate. Where it becomes
more uncertain is southward toward the South Bay. Given the latest
guidance and radar trend, will continue to advertise a few showers
possible around San Francisco and the East Bay.
For Friday, the cold front will finally move through the Bay Area.
As this happens, a few lingering showers will be possible, but
once again mainly over the North Bay. Therefore, added a slight
chance for showers north of the Golden Gate on Friday.
By this weekend, high pressure currently over Texas will
gradually build westward and engulf much of the Desert Southwest.
In fact, some of the latest model guidance is forecasting record
850mb temps and 500mb heights for portions of the Desert
Southwest. As a result, a warming and dry trend will occur for
much of the region Saturday/Sunday and peak Monday/Tuesday. So
what does this mean for the Bay Area? After a period of below
normal temperatures there will be a huge shift in daytime max
temps, especially Monday and Tuesday. There will even be rather
warm overnight lows as well providing little relief. As always
with these setups, one major forecasting challenge is near the
coast and the marine influence. Latest guidance does show some
onshore flow both Monday and Tuesday, which will keep temperatures
in check. Away from the coast, temperatures will soar into the 90s
and even low 100s far interior. Overnight lows both nights will
be in the 50s/60s valleys/coast with 70s to near 80 in the hills.
This will likely be the warmest temperatures observed in roughly
two months. The airmass bringing this hot weather looks impressive
with 850mb temps in the mid 20C range...35C over the Four Corners.
That being said, there is huge bust potential along the coast.
Take away the marine influence and the temps will be 10-15 degs
warmer than the current forecast.
Medium range models keep the high press over the Desert Southwest
through next week. However, onshore does increase next Wednesday
and Thursday leading to slightly cooler temperatures around the
Bay Area.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 10:45 PM PDT Thursday...Cloud band of light rain
is still hung up over the North Bay but stratus has formed rapidly
along the San Mateo coast and northern Mry Bay Area in the past 2
hours as nighttime cooling of the airmass takes place. Thus
confidence is growing that mvfr cigs will spread into the MRY and
SFO Bay Area after 08z.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR after 08z clearing after 17z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs by 08z clearing after 17z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:50 PM PDT Thursday...A weak frontal system will
keep light winds through Friday. Winds will become northwest
Friday night as high pressure builds off the California coast.
Stronger winds are expected over the northern waters this weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
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www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1050 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend
and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward
from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:40 PM PDT Thursday...Light rain showers
have diminished a bit in coverage over the North Bay during the
past few hours, yet satellite and radar imagery shows what appears
to be another around of showers approaching the North Bay
coastline at this hour. Do expect isolated to scattered showers to
persist through the evening over this region while most locations
south of the Golden Gate remain dry. However, cannot rule out a
shower or two around San Francisco or as far south as Pescadero
through the night. With region-wide temperatures generally in the
60s this evening, should see most areas cool down into the mid 50s
overnight. Also expecting some coastal clouds to develop late in
the night into early Friday morning ahead of the nearly stationary
boundary to the north. With that said, the ongoing forecast
remains on track for tonight and no updates are needed at this
time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 02:50 PM PDT Thursday... Afternoon KMUX
radar imagery continues to show scattered showers moving across
the North Bay this afternoon. Spotter reports and automated gauges
have verified that some of the showers are actually reaching the
ground. A sampling of reports over the last six hours indicates
that places reporting rain received a few hundredths with the two
highest reports at a tenth near Monte Rio. For the rest of this
afternoon and tonight expect scattered showers to continue with
the greatest likelihood north of the Golden Gate. Where it becomes
more uncertain is southward toward the South Bay. Given the latest
guidance and radar trend, will continue to advertise a few showers
possible around San Francisco and the East Bay.
For Friday, the cold front will finally move through the Bay Area.
As this happens, a few lingering showers will be possible, but
once again mainly over the North Bay. Therefore, added a slight
chance for showers north of the Golden Gate on Friday.
By this weekend, high pressure currently over Texas will
gradually build westward and engulf much of the Desert Southwest.
In fact, some of the latest model guidance is forecasting record
850mb temps and 500mb heights for portions of the Desert
Southwest. As a result, a warming and dry trend will occur for
much of the region Saturday/Sunday and peak Monday/Tuesday. So
what does this mean for the Bay Area? After a period of below
normal temperatures there will be a huge shift in daytime max
temps, especially Monday and Tuesday. There will even be rather
warm overnight lows as well providing little relief. As always
with these setups, one major forecasting challenge is near the
coast and the marine influence. Latest guidance does show some
onshore flow both Monday and Tuesday, which will keep temperatures
in check. Away from the coast, temperatures will soar into the 90s
and even low 100s far interior. Overnight lows both nights will
be in the 50s/60s valleys/coast with 70s to near 80 in the hills.
This will likely be the warmest temperatures observed in roughly
two months. The airmass bringing this hot weather looks impressive
with 850mb temps in the mid 20C range...35C over the Four Corners.
That being said, there is huge bust potential along the coast.
Take away the marine influence and the temps will be 10-15 degs
warmer than the current forecast.
Medium range models keep the high press over the Desert Southwest
through next week. However, onshore does increase next Wednesday
and Thursday leading to slightly cooler temperatures around the
Bay Area.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 10:45 PM PDT Thursday...Cloud band of light rain
is still hung up over the North Bay but stratus has formed rapidly
along the San Mateo coast and northern Mry Bay Area in the past 2
hours as nighttime cooling of the airmass takes place. Thus
confidence is growing that mvfr cigs will spread into the MRY and
SFO Bay Area after 08z.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR after 08z clearing after 17z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs by 08z clearing after 17z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:50 PM PDT Thursday...A weak frontal system will
keep light winds through Friday. Winds will become northwest
Friday night as high pressure builds off the California coast.
Stronger winds are expected over the northern waters this weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1048 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will continue
to bring cooler than normal temperatures through Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern valley through
Saturday afternoon. Building high pressure will bring a return of
hot temperatures by mid week.
.DISCUSSION...
Very light showers over the northern valley this evening and will
continue overnight. Only very light amounts generally less than
0.10 inches. Current forecast is on track and no evening update
will be needed.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated a broad
upper level low system just off the coast of the Pacific
northwest, which is providing increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures across the region. A dry slot moving into the region
kept showers and thunderstorms from developing, including lower
snow amounts in the northern Sierra.
Short term model forecasts had a tough time today with the dry
slot aloft, so nearly every model was erroneous with placement and
timing of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As a
result, the immediate short term forecast was a tough one.
Greatest chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are for
the northern mountains and northern valley locations today. Model
soundings and surface forecasts show dry air aloft that could
translate to surface wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms, if they
develop. Storm chances will continue through Friday and Saturday.
A building high pressure from the south will begin to influence
the NorCal area Sunday, and temperatures will return to near
normal in the low 90s in the valley and 60s and 70s for the higher
elevations.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Model guidance suggests an upper level ridge building across
western U.S. early next week. Daytime highs will likely range
10-15 degrees above normal. The Tuesday- Thursday period looks to
be the warmest of the week, with widespread low 100s across the
Valley. Residents should remember to stay hydrated next week,
given the potential heat impacts.
IDM/JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
The upper ridge was in place this morning over the Central Plains.
Water vapor loop shows a weak mid level wave moving slowly eastward
into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Models suggest frontal boundary over
Iowa will slide southwest and reside somewhere over the CWA this
afternoon. A weak mid level wave is also forecast to drift over
central Kansas during the afternoon hours. There is little in the
way of upper level lift over the eastern half of the area this
afternoon. Will continue to focus small chances of thunderstorms
across the southwest parts of the forecast area this afternoon. Main
concern continues to be heat indices around 105 degrees again today
with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s thus afternoon with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Will continue with the heat
advisory until 9 PM this evening.
Tonight, there is some weak convergence across central Kansas within
the low level jet and near a surface front. Presence of weak
upper level wave drifting across the area will aid in developing
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Main hazards would be strong
winds and hail up to the size of quarters with the strongest
cells.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Will need to watch convective chances Saturday, but trends continue
to bring chances farther west as drier air pushes in on more
easterly low-mid level winds than earlier guidance suggested.
Morning cloud cover from any convection should dissipate by the
afternoon and provide another hot day. The more easterly winds do
however bring a slightly cooler as well as drier airmass in and the
potential for extreme heat index values continues to wane. Sunday
continues to veer winds to the south with slightly warmer air
returning, but moisture values look rather steady. This keeps Sunday
apparent temps more in check as well and confidence in anything more
than brief and local heat index values around 105 is low enough over
the weekend to cancel the Excessive Heat Watch. Monday could bring
another near Advisory level day with the front a bit slower though
an increase in low-level moisture is not apparent. Precip chances
still ramp up over the next few periods with front sinking in. At
this point Tuesday night looks the wettest with deeper moisture
pooling along the front. Upper ridge builds back in Thursday for
likely dry conditions and warming temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
VFR prevailing at terminals. Light winds and ample moisture underneath
the sharp sfc inversion layer will likely develop MVFR haze and
fog in the 10Z to 12Z time frame. High clouds with a slight chance
for an isolated thunderstorm aft 00Z at KMHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Latest upper air analysis indicates a ridge over the Central Plains
with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a dry line
was located near the KS/CO border.
This morning the dry line will remain nearly stationary then
gradually move north and east this afternoon near the north and east
borders of the Tri-State Area as the surface low over Southwest
Kansas deepens. During the early morning there may be a narrow
corridor of dense fog along the dry line. Anticipate the fog to be
very shallow, more of a ground fog, and dissipate by mid morning if
not before. During the early afternoon an upper level short wave
trough will move over the dry line and deepen, and the low level jet
will develop with the nose of the jet over the east half of the area.
Based on mixed layer CAPE/CINH storms may begin to fire along the
dry line during the early afternoon. Northwest of the area storms
will also develop along the the weak front that was over part of the
area yesterday. Mean storm motion will be north at 5 mph or less,
so once these storms develop they will not move very much. As the
afternoon progresses anticipate storm coverage to increase north of
Highway 36 then spread southeast as the short wave trough over the
dry line moves southeast around the retrograding ridge.
Due to the slow movement of these storms heavy rainfall will be
likely. Deep layer shear will be around 20kts, mainly due to
directional shear, so a brief severe thunderstorm is certainly
possible. Large hail is not anticipated to be much of a threat due
to the low deep layer shear. However cannot rule out quarter size
hail from occurring. The primary threat today will be damaging
winds during the afternoon.
Tonight storm coverage will peak during the early evening before
moving east of the area. Not entirely sure how far west the storms
will extend by the early evening. Best estimate is the storm
activity will be east of a Yuma to Goodland and Russell Springs
line. Deep layer shear increases to 30 kts on the west edge of the
departing storms, so the furthest west storms could produce hail up
to hen egg size. However this will depend on how quickly the storms
exit the area. If storms are slower the potential for larger hail
will increase, if faster the hail will be smaller. Storms should be
east of the area a few hours after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Saturday through Sunday the weather turns dry again as the upper
level ridge continues to build onto the plains. Trended highs on
both of these days a few degrees cooler given the cooler air mass
that follows the MCS over the Northern Plains south around the upper
level ridge.
Forecast issues are high temperatures and chances of precipitation
Monday through Thursday. Satellite showing an amplified pattern
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. In general, a trough
ridge and trough position is in place from the west coast of North
America to the east coast of North America. The flow along the
west coast is moving toward a split flow.
There are still model differences in regards to the amplitude and
position of the ridging aloft. However, those differences are less
than than yesterday, and are more pronounced toward the end of the
period. Again the ECMWF, especially with time, is more amplified
and further east than the GFS and Canadian. However, the GFS
tended to be a little further east than yesterday.
As a result, the region is more under the influence of the ridging.
The lift from passing shortwave troughs is less than before. There
is now less of the area covered by pops. At this time the best
chances for rainfall will be on Monday afternoon/night and Thursday
afternoon/night. On Monday despite the weak lift aloft, there is
more agreement in a front moving through. Feel better about this day
rather than on Thursday due to more model differences on Thursday.
What the extended blend gave me was reasonable and did not make any
major adjustments to it.
Because of higher heights/stronger ridging, the newer high
temperatures the init gave me were more warmer than the previous
forecast. Saw no reason to deviate from what it gave me.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Have made changes to the 06Z TAF from the 00Z TAF at GLD and MCK.
GLD will be mainly VFR through the TAF period with a brief window
of IFR to LIFR conditions between 11Z-15Z. Lower conditions are
expected mainly due to fog that models are now showing a higher
probability of occurring in the convergent area along the dry linethat
will be positioned over western Kansas. Moisture is being fed
northward into the area ahead of the dry line with dew points
currently in the middle to upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures
in the lower to middle 60s are expected around 12Z, so saturation
of the boundary layer is possible briefly around sunrise. Expect
any fog that develops to quickly erode as temperatures rise
rapidly in a cloud-free sky. Between 18-00Z, ample mixing will
help winds become gusty out of the east to east southeast.
MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period, but will have a chance
of seeing a late afternoon thunderstorm or two roll through the
area mainly between 22-00Z as the dry line moves further east
across the central high plains. Gusty east southeast winds are
also expected between 18-00Z as the atmosphere becomes well mixed.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER/JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Latest upper air analysis indicates a ridge over the Central Plains
with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a dry line
was located near the KS/CO border.
This morning the dry line will remain nearly stationary then
gradually move north and east this afternoon near the north and east
borders of the Tri-State Area as the surface low over Southwest
Kansas deepens. During the early morning there may be a narrow
corridor of dense fog along the dry line. Anticipate the fog to be
very shallow, more of a ground fog, and dissipate by mid morning if
not before. During the early afternoon an upper level short wave
trough will move over the dry line and deepen, and the low level jet
will develop with the nose of the jet over the east half of the area.
Based on mixed layer CAPE/CINH storms may begin to fire along the
dry line during the early afternoon. Northwest of the area storms
will also develop along the the weak front that was over part of the
area yesterday. Mean storm motion will be north at 5 mph or less,
so once these storms develop they will not move very much. As the
afternoon progresses anticipate storm coverage to increase north of
Highway 36 then spread southeast as the short wave trough over the
dry line moves southeast around the retrograding ridge.
Due to the slow movement of these storms heavy rainfall will be
likely. Deep layer shear will be around 20kts, mainly due to
directional shear, so a brief severe thunderstorm is certainly
possible. Large hail is not anticipated to be much of a threat due
to the low deep layer shear. However cannot rule out quarter size
hail from occurring. The primary threat today will be damaging
winds during the afternoon.
Tonight storm coverage will peak during the early evening before
moving east of the area. Not entirely sure how far west the storms
will extend by the early evening. Best estimate is the storm
activity will be east of a Yuma to Goodland and Russell Springs
line. Deep layer shear increases to 30 kts on the west edge of the
departing storms, so the furthest west storms could produce hail up
to hen egg size. However this will depend on how quickly the storms
exit the area. If storms are slower the potential for larger hail
will increase, if faster the hail will be smaller. Storms should be
east of the area a few hours after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Saturday through Sunday the weather turns dry again as the upper
level ridge continues to build onto the plains. Trended highs on
both of these days a few degrees cooler given the cooler air mass
that follows the MCS over the Northern Plains south around the upper
level ridge.
Forecast issues are high temperatures and chances of precipitation
Monday through Thursday. Satellite showing an amplified pattern
from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. In general, a trough
ridge and trough position is in place from the west coast of North
America to the east coast of North America. The flow along the
west coast is moving toward a split flow.
There are still model differences in regards to the amplitude and
position of the ridging aloft. However, those differences are less
than than yesterday, and are more pronounced toward the end of the
period. Again the ECMWF, especially with time, is more amplified
and further east than the GFS and Canadian. However, the GFS
tended to be a little further east than yesterday.
As a result, the region is more under the influence of the ridging.
The lift from passing shortwave troughs is less than before. There
is now less of the area covered by pops. At this time the best
chances for rainfall will be on Monday afternoon/night and Thursday
afternoon/night. On Monday despite the weak lift aloft, there is
more agreement in a front moving through. Feel better about this day
rather than on Thursday due to more model differences on Thursday.
What the extended blend gave me was reasonable and did not make any
major adjustments to it.
Because of higher heights/stronger ridging, the newer high
temperatures the init gave me were more warmer than the previous
forecast. Saw no reason to deviate from what it gave me.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Have made changes to the 06Z TAF from the 00Z TAF at GLD and MCK.
GLD will be mainly VFR through the TAF period with a brief window
of IFR to LIFR conditions between 11Z-15Z. Lower conditions are
expected mainly due to fog that models are now showing a higher
probability of occurring in the convergent area along the dry linethat
will be positioned over western Kansas. Moisture is being fed
northward into the area ahead of the dry line with dew points
currently in the middle to upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures
in the lower to middle 60s are expected around 12Z, so saturation
of the boundary layer is possible briefly around sunrise. Expect
any fog that develops to quickly erode as temperatures rise
rapidly in a cloud-free sky. Between 18-00Z, ample mixing will
help winds become gusty out of the east to east southeast.
MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period, but will have a chance
of seeing a late afternoon thunderstorm or two roll through the
area mainly between 22-00Z as the dry line moves further east
across the central high plains. Gusty east southeast winds are
also expected between 18-00Z as the atmosphere becomes well mixed.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER/JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
228 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Precip chances return to central and portions of western Kansas late
today as short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave
cresting the ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
and northeast Colorado late this afternoon, then dropping southeast
into western Kansas tonight. As this feature approaches, a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will continue to reinforce an already fairly
moist air mass across the region...with surface dewpoints well up into
the 60s(F)...providing an ample amount of instability. Meanwhile, a
surface low will become more organized as it moves southeast into the
Texas Panhandle while a broad surface high remains settled across the
Great Lakes, creating a band of increased convergence across the
Central Plains. As H5 vort maxima and an associated upper level jet
max begin to exit the ridge axis late this afternoon, thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front pushing slowly
southeast across the high plains of western Nebraska, then spread
southward into central and portions of western Kansas overnight.
Although MLCAPE values will be in excess of 3000 J/KG based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, 0-6km shear profiles will be less than
favorable lessening the potential for widespread severe storms.
Another concern will be periods of heavy rainfall with indicated
PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, resulting in possible localized
flooding.
High temperatures near 100F can be expected again this afternoon
with little change to the general air mass across western and
central Kansas. For tonight, look for lows down into the 60s(F)
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas with the lower
70s(F) across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Drier conditions and above normal temperatures are likely through
the weekend into the early part of next week as medium range models
indicate the building upper level high across the Desert Southwest
extending northeast into the Western High Plains. Although moisture
will be abundant, an extremely weak flow aloft and subsidence will
hinder precip chances through early Monday. Will see highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F each day through Monday with little
change expected to the general air mass across the high plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through Friday evening as a surface low in
southeast Colorado moves slowly southeast into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles during the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 69 100 71 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 100 66 100 69 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 100 63 100 67 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 100 66 101 69 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 99 69 100 71 / 20 30 10 0
P28 102 73 100 72 / 10 20 20 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Precip chances return to central and portions of western Kansas late
today as short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave
cresting the ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
and northeast Colorado late this afternoon, then dropping southeast
into western Kansas tonight. As this feature approaches, a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will continue to reinforce an already fairly
moist air mass across the region...with surface dewpoints well up into
the 60s(F)...providing an ample amount of instability. Meanwhile, a
surface low will become more organized as it moves southeast into the
Texas Panhandle while a broad surface high remains settled across the
Great Lakes, creating a band of increased convergence across the
Central Plains. As H5 vort maxima and an associated upper level jet
max begin to exit the ridge axis late this afternoon, thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front pushing slowly
southeast across the high plains of western Nebraska, then spread
southward into central and portions of western Kansas overnight.
Although MLCAPE values will be in excess of 3000 J/KG based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, 0-6km shear profiles will be less than
favorable lessening the potential for widespread severe storms.
Another concern will be periods of heavy rainfall with indicated
PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, resulting in possible localized
flooding.
High temperatures near 100F can be expected again this afternoon
with little change to the general air mass across western and
central Kansas. For tonight, look for lows down into the 60s(F)
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas with the lower
70s(F) across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over
the Rockies through this weekend and into next week. A few weak
shortwaves are progged to move up and over this ridge and into the
Central High Plains. These shortwaves will create enough lift for
thunderstorms to form, generally in the afternoon and early
evening hours. In between these shortwaves, moisture and lift will
be limited leading to mostly clear skies and dry conditions. A
trough of low pressure at the surface will be present across
eastern Colorado through at least the early part of next week
bringing a southerly breeze to western Kansas. As for
temperatures, highs through the weekend look to top out around 100
degrees then slightly cool down into the mid to upper 90s early
next week. Lows are expected to generally fall to around 70
degrees with the exception of along the KS/CO border where highs
in the mid to upper 60s will be found.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through Friday evening as a surface low in
southeast Colorado moves slowly southeast into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles during the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 100 / 0 10 20 10
GCK 65 100 66 100 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 62 100 63 100 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 71 99 69 100 / 0 20 30 10
P28 73 102 73 100 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
147 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Precip chances return to central and portions of western Kansas late
today as short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave
cresting the ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
and northeast Colorado late this afternoon, then dropping southeast
into western Kansas tonight. As this feature approaches, a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will continue to reinforce an already fairly
moist air mass across the region...with surface dewpoints well up into
the 60s(F)...providing an ample amount of instability. Meanwhile, a
surface low will become more organized as it moves southeast into the
Texas Panhandle while a broad surface high remains settled across the
Great Lakes, creating a band of increased convergence across the
Central Plains. As H5 vort maxima and an associated upper level jet
max begin to exit the ridge axis late this afternoon, thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front pushing slowly
southeast across the high plains of western Nebraska, then spread
southward into central and portions of western Kansas overnight.
Although MLCAPE values will be in excess of 3000 J/KG based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, 0-6km shear profiles will be less than
favorable lessening the potential for widespread severe storms.
Another concern will be periods of heavy rainfall with indicated
PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, resulting in possible localized
flooding.
High temperatures near 100F can be expected again this afternoon
with little change to the general air mass across western and
central Kansas. For tonight, look for lows down into the 60s(F)
across west central and extreme southwest Kansas with the lower
70s(F) across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over
the Rockies through this weekend and into next week. A few weak
shortwaves are progged to move up and over this ridge and into the
Central High Plains. These shortwaves will create enough lift for
thunderstorms to form, generally in the afternoon and early
evening hours. In between these shortwaves, moisture and lift will
be limited leading to mostly clear skies and dry conditions. A
trough of low pressure at the surface will be present across
eastern Colorado through at least the early part of next week
bringing a southerly breeze to western Kansas. As for
temperatures, highs through the weekend look to top out around 100
degrees then slightly cool down into the mid to upper 90s early
next week. Lows are expected to generally fall to around 70
degrees with the exception of along the KS/CO border where highs
in the mid to upper 60s will be found.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through Friday evening as a surface low in
southeast Colorado moves slowly southeast into the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles during the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 100 / 0 10 20 10
GCK 65 100 66 100 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 62 100 63 100 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 10 0
HYS 71 99 69 100 / 0 20 30 10
P28 73 102 73 100 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows larges scale
ridging extending from the Southern Plains, across the Great Lakes
region, and into Canada. Gulf and Pacific moisture are completely
cutoff from the high plains with very dry mid levels and subsidence
apparent on WV. At the surface a dry line is along the Colorado
state line, beginning to mix eastward, as Tds are already beginning
to drop in NW Kansas. Smoke from the
This afternoon-evening: Despite decent convergence along dry line, a
complete lack of upper level forcing and strong cap currently in
place lowers confidence in thunderstorm initiation. There should be
some weakening of the cap as temperatures continue to rise and dry
line mixes east, however without any large scale ascent and the very
dry air mass in place activity would be very isolated. Latest HRRR
and RAP do show an isolated signal in the 21z period, but so far
there is no initiation on satellite of a Cu field developing. I left
mention out for now, considering the lack of positive trends or
consistency. Under the condition that a thunderstorm does develop:
ML CAPE is in the 1500 J/KG, however more impressive is the 2000+
J/KG of DCAPE. Considering the dry mid levels and high DCAPE, if a
thunderstorm were to develop micorobursts would be a concern.
Tonight-Friday: A trough building in the southeast US and the ridge
center retrograding westward allows for the subtropical jet to
reestablish itself into the southern plains and the southern
Rockies. Despite this only weak forcing is advertised across our
CWA, however there should be a better plume of Gulf moisture work it
way around the ridge. In the mean time a trough in the northern
plains and it`s associated front should lead to better thunderstorm
coverage which is advertised to form into complex diving south along
the mean CAPE axis across the plains towards late Friday afternoon.
Local convective initiation may also occur along surface trough over
our CWA, or along Cheyenne ridge and spread southeast. There are
multiple scenarios depicted in guidance that all lead to better
shower/thunderstorm coverage over our northeastern CWA, and I felt
comfortable with 20/30 pops despite lower confidence in evolution.
Return flow should support moderate to high CAPE values across
eastern parts of our CWA, with unidirectional shear beginning to
increase towards 00z (Bulk shear 35 kt). Severe thunderstorms will
be possible, with shear profiles and soundings supporting large
hail/damaging wind threats.
Regarding temperatures: Highs today (as expected) have warmed to
near 100F already for eastern locations and the mid-upper 90s
elsewhere. Temperatures tonight through Friday are a little less
certain due to variances in model depictions of possible weak cold
front coming near our CWA possibly aided by outflow from convective
activity. With surface pattern in question and possibility for falling
heights I have less confidence overall. We should see another hot
day at the very least, its just we could see a greater spread in
possible highs. Another day like today, or possibly 5-8F "cooler". I
leaned forecast towards mean approach, which only shaves a few
degrees from highs today.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
After chances for precipitation Friday night, a warm and dry weekend
is ahead followed by potentially more active weather. For this
period, temperatures appear to peak on Sunday before cooling
slightly through midweek.
Friday night, showers and thunderstorms continue to be possible
as a front impacts the High Plains. There is still a lot of
disagreement among guidance regarding how this will unfold, so
kept slight/low chance pops limited to the northeastern half of
the area. If storms do develop, severe thunderstorms will be
possible with decent CAPE and increasing shear.
Dry conditions and warm temperatures persist through the weekend as
the upper ridge builds over the CONUS. High pressure advances over
the region Saturday and Sunday from the southwest and elongates over
the southern half of the country. Meanwhile, an upper low pushes
over the Pacific Northwest. This disturbance tracks eastward near
the Canadian border Sunday into Sunday night.
Sunday night and Monday, the upper low is absorbed into a developing
trough over central Canada as a cold front advances south towards
the High Plains. The front brings a slight chance of thunderstorms
to the forecast for Monday and Monday night before sliding off to
the south. As the trough from Canada edges south over the eastern
CONUS, the ridge starts to retrograde to the desert southwest. More
of a northwest flow establishes itself across the High Plains for
the rest of the longterm. Kept Tuesday through Thursday dry, but
cannot rule out precip as disturbances pass through the
northwest flow.
Expect temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees again
through the weekend before cooling occurs during the first part of
the week with the cold front passing through and ridge breaking down.
Highs appear to rise again by Thursday as ridging builds to the
west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Have made changes to the 06Z TAF from the 00Z TAF at GLD and MCK.
GLD will be mainly VFR through the TAF period with a brief window
of IFR to LIFR conditions between 11Z-15Z. Lower conditions are
expected mainly due to fog that models are now showing a higher
probability of occurring in the convergent area along the dryline
that will be positioned over western Kansas. Moisture is being fed
northward into the area ahead of the dryline with dewpoints
currently in the middle to upper 60s. Overnight low temperatures
in the lower to middle 60s are expected around 12Z, so saturation
of the boundary layer is possible briefly around sunrise. Expect
any fog that develops to quickly erode as temperatures rise
rapidly in a cloud-free sky. Between 18-00Z, ample mixing will
help winds become gusty out of the east to east southeast.
MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period, but will have a chance
of seeing a late afternoon thunderstorm or two roll through the
area mainly between 22-00Z as the dryline moves further east
across the central high plains. Gusty east southeast winds are
also expected between 18-00Z as the atmosphere becomes well mixed.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
The mid-level ridge remained anchored across the central U.S., with
southerly surface winds in place as the CWA was wedged between low
pressure to the west and high pressure to the southeast. Some cloud
cover lingered across far east central Kansas due to the
precipitation from the morning MCV. As a result, afternoon
temperatures there were a few degrees cooler than originally
forecast, but readings reached near 100 degrees across north central
Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat
indices ranged from the mid 90s east to 100-105 degrees across north
central and central Kansas. A weak convergence zone was noted in
northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, with visible satellite
showing some shallow cumulus popping up. With some isentropic lift
present on the 310K surface, the HRRR and RAP show the potential for
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up across southeast
Kansas late this afternoon into this evening, and this activity may
extend northward into east central Kansas. As a result, have added
slight chance PoPs. Mesoscale analysis showed little to no cap in
place with 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, so if storms are
able to develop they may be strong. However, wind shear continues to
look weak at 20kts or less so it should be difficult for storms to
sustain themselves for long. The main hazards with any strong storms
would be hail and gusty winds.
With the ridge still in place, expect another hot day tomorrow.
However, models show 850mb temperatures being slightly cooler
compared to today. As a result, have Friday high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler across north central/central Kansas with
readings expected to range from the mid 90s east to the upper 90s
west. Models are still showing dewpoints reaching into the upper
60s to low/mid 70s, which would push afternoon heat indices into the
103 to 108 degree range. As a result, the Excessive Heat Watch for
Friday has been upgraded to a Heat Advisory for the entire outlook
area. A somewhat stationary boundary may be in place across central
Kansas by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This nearby boundary
combined with an embedded shortwave within the mid-level ridge
across north central Kansas may help to produce some scattered
storms by mid to late afternoon. Due to the low confidence in the
timing and location of any storms, only have slight chance PoPs at
this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Friday Night through Sunday...
Friday evening and overnight provides an interesting low-probability
setup with potential for thunderstorm development across parts of
the area. Expect extreme mid level lapse rates across the entire
region, but the location and extent of instability will depend on
quality of low level moisture. Right now this appears to be better
focused to the southwest, or at least over SW parts of the forecast
area with a pretty good MUCAPE gradient increasing from NE to SW
across the region. There are signs of convergent flow in the low
levels and on a weak low level jet during the evening and overnight
hours from NW into central and SE Kansas and this added moisture
convergence could be sufficient for thunderstorm development in the
evening. Furthermore, there is upslope flow focused into NE Colorado
and SE Nebraska and if this allows convection to grow upscale and
organize a cold pool in this area, could see it propagating along
the convergence zone toward central KS. Again, this is low
probability, but there is a chance for either or both scenarios to
play out through Friday night.
Saturday looks to be slightly cooler with flow from the southeast
being a bit cooler although with neutral or slight moisture
advection. Have also forecast a bit cooler due to potential for some
cloud debris during the day as well. Current forecast is for heat
indices to a bit lower but still have some potential to be quite hot
if staying clear and/or higher dewpoints. With the excessive heat
watch already in effect, will maintain it as-is through Sunday as
things look a bit warmer yet for Sunday and with a much better
chance of being capped off to convection and precipitation and cloud
free.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Monday appears to be the warmest day within the extended period with
high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indicies approaching
100. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, knocking high temperatures back
into the upper 80s to near 90. Thunderstorm chances also return with
the frontal passage. Model guidance suggests slight thunderstorm
chances will be continue through the remainder of the period as an
upper level trough across the Great Lakes region skirts the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
VFR prevailing at terminals. Light winds and ample moisture underneath
the sharp sfc inversion layer will likely develop MVFR haze and
fog in the 10Z to 12Z time frame. High clouds with a slight chance
for an isolated thunderstorm aft 00Z at KMHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg
AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
202 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
The severe weather threat will continue through the early morning
hours, but the better part of today will be thunderstorm-free.
As of 07 UTC, a couple of discrete storms have intensified over
Morton and Grant Counties, and have displayed transient supercell
characteristics in response to increasingly favorable deep-layer
wind fields. Meanwhile, another intense thunderstorm is affecting
southwest ND. That cell is expected to propagate northeast into
and across a reservoir of stronger MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. We
expect a severe weather threat to persist through 12 UTC as these
cells cross that instability axis while deep-layer wind shear only
increases further into the 50+ kt range. Steep mid-level lapse
rates favor large hail, and any bowing segments such as those that
have been suggested by the HRRR (and as observed in recent radar
data with the storms in southwest ND) may produce damaging winds.
The early-day convection and eastward progression of a weak short-
wave trough aloft will push the surface boundary across central ND
at 07 UTC southeast into SD and MN later today. Mid-level heights
will slowly rise this afternoon, as well, suggesting that the odds
of thunderstorm development in western and central ND will be low.
Convection-allowing model guidance supports that notion, as well.
However, we are still carrying a chance of storms in the southern
James River valley this afternoon and evening in respect to MLCAPE
on the order of 2000 J/kg seen there on forecast soundings.
The chance of thunderstorms will increase tonight, mainly after 06
UTC as modest Theta-E advection occurs aloft with the frontal zone
also shifting northward. However, the 00 UTC GFS and NAM suggest
that mid-level capping late tonight may be stronger than modeled
earlier, and the low-level jet upstream in SD is modest at 25 kt.
Both suggest that the probability of late-night severe weather may
be lower than thought at this time yesterday, and it is too low
for us to make any explicit mention in the forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
The potential for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night
is the focus of the long term forecast.
The 00 UTC guidance calls for boundary layer dewpoints in the mid
and upper 60s F across most of western and central ND Saturday on
south-southeast flow as a surface low develops in MT. Steep mid-
level lapse rates will yield widespread MLCAPE of 2500 to 3500
J/kg across western and central ND, while deep-layer wind fields
will strengthen, producing an impressive CAPE-shear setting with
0-6-km bulk wind shear of 55 to 65 kt. Moreover, model-forecast
soundings display substantial veering with height, favorable for
supercellular storm modes capable of all severe hazards. Capping
is not modeled to be particularly strong by mid to late day per
the 00 UTC GFS and NAM, but forcing for ascent is questionable
without a well-defined surface boundary in place and mid-level
height rises. True to that point, most 00 UTC guidance fails to
generate any storms during the diurnal heating cycle. We still
carried a chance of storms, though, both due to the possibility
of early-day elevated convection and to cover the potential for
isolated surface-based storm development late in the day. Either
way, it appears that an MCS may cross northern ND Saturday night
after emanating from storms in MT Saturday afternoon and evening.
Such an MCS would have the potential to produce higher-order wind
damage if it occurs.
Note that the parameter space Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night remains one of the most impressive we`ve seen this season.
CIPS analog guidance also points to the relatively high threat
of all severe hazards, if storms actually develop.
Thereafter, the 00 UTC guidance agrees that the flow aloft shifts
to the northwest as the intense subtropical ridge sprawling from
the southwest US into the central Plains is flattened a bit. That
should reduce the storm chances in our region for a few days from
Monday through Thursday, before flow aloft turns southwest again
by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A complex of thunderstorms may move across southwest and central
ND overnight with local IFR/MVFR conditions, heavy rainfall, and
possibly large hail and damaging winds. KDIK will be impacted
between 07 and 09 UTC, KBIS between 09 and 11 UTC, and KJMS may be
impacted between 11 and 13 UTC. In addition, MVFR ceilings in
stratus will likely impact KJMS late tonight and early Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail during the day
Friday with a much lower thunderstorm risk.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1222 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
We have overhauled the overnight forecast to 1) generally decrease
the chance of thunderstorms in the James River valley until late
tonight, and 2) focus the chance of thunderstorms from southwest
into central ND from 06 to 11 UTC. Capping held on for most of the
length of the surface wind shift over central ND this evening, and
the earlier slow-moving supercell in southeast Morton County has
diminished. A few cells continue west/southwest of Bismarck and
around Rolla as of 0515 UTC, but radar trends suggest most of them
are not particularly robust. Meanwhile, convection in southeastern
MT appears associated with a more well-defined shortwave trough
and its related ascent. That convection may intensify quickly once
it enters southwest and central ND the next few hours, where there
is an axis of MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg along and east of a line
from Dickinson to Hettinger. Guidance also calls for effective
bulk wind shear to steadily increase from west to east the next
few hours. The result is that the storms coming out of MT may
become severe in southwest ND and maintain their intensity as they
propagate into central ND late tonight. Recent HRRR and ESRL-HRRR
runs support this idea, especially with their updraft helicity
fields, which exceed 50 m2/s2 with their simulated storms moving
from Slope and Adams Counties northeast toward Bismarck by 10 UTC.
UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Strong thunderstorms continue south central. Heavy rain possible.
UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Latest satellite images show cu field beginning to erode the cap.
Expect thunderstorm development shortly across south central
North Dakota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
At the surface, an upper level low is located over northern
Alberta, ejecting a shortwave north into Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This wave was responsible for the scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Canadian border earlier this morning that
have since moved north out of the state. Over on the west coast
of the CONUS, a deepening trough will be the focus of this
afternoon`s showers and thunderstorms over parts of western and
central North Dakota. A visible short wave on water vapor located
over the southern Black Hills of South Dakota will begin to nudge
into southwestern North Dakota, where a surface low and a plethora
of boundaries are present.
While most models show ample bulk and low level shear coupled with
plenty of CAPE over the forecast area, an elevated mixed layer is
currently providing high temperatures in the H8 and H7 levels,
keeping a stout cap in place. This cap should remain strong
through the afternoon until a cold front approaches with a push of
mid level western air that will aid in cooling the mid-level
temperatures slightly. The global models and the NAM hold off
widespread convection until well after 00-03z but the latest
iterations of the HRRR and other CAMs have been a bit more
aggressive, initiating isolated supercells just west of the
Missouri river by the 23-01z time frame. So, at this point we are
in a holding pattern and enjoying the waiting game. If storms can
realize the impressive environment without suffering from the cap
suppression, storms will have the potential to produce some large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a condition threat of a brief
tornado given some elevated low level shear eventually as the low
level jet kicks in around sunset. This is a very conditional
forecast with quite a bit on uncertainty, and one we will have to
keep monitoring through the night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
As the pattern keeps the region in a southwest flow regime, nearly
daily chances of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
weekend, starting with a potential MCS overnight Friday into
Saturday morning.
Saturday is looking potentially like the most interesting severe
setup of the period thus far, with some of the most impressive
parameter space we`ve seen forecast this season by all the major
models. Still lots off questions with strong capping, timing, and
small scale details. However, we will have to closely monitor this
one as if models remain constant, all severe weather hazards could
be possible during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours.
More details should be nailed down in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016
A complex of showers and thunderstorms may move across southwest
and central ND overnight with local IFR/MVFR conditions, heavy
rainfall, and possibly large hail and damaging winds. KDIK could
be impacted between 07 and 09 UTC, KBIS between 09 and 11 UTC, and
KJMS between 11 and 13 UTC. In addition, MVFR ceilings in stratus
will likely impact KJMS late tonight and early Friday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will generally prevail during the day Friday with a
much lower thunderstorm risk.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night
Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.
Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.
However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.
Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&
.Long term...Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.
On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.
Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10
Camden AR 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 69 89 68 88 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Little Rock AR 75 92 73 92 / 30 10 0 10
Monticello AR 75 93 74 91 / 30 10 0 10
Mount Ida AR 72 91 70 89 / 30 10 0 10
Mountain Home AR 70 89 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
Newport AR 71 92 72 91 / 20 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 72 90 / 30 10 0 10
Russellville AR 73 92 71 91 / 30 10 0 10
Searcy AR 72 92 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
Stuttgart AR 74 91 73 91 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.AVIATION...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MCV FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH REPORTS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RECEIVED. Please refer to the local storm report
product for more information.
Remnants on the MVC are sinking slowly to the south and pops have
been adjusted accordingly. The remainder of the forecast looks to
be in good shape with another steamy day on tap with a back door
cold front still coming in later today and tonight for some
relief.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions with
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon at most TAF sites. Have added tempo groups for best
timing of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 12z
TAF period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around
sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon. Have added tempo groups for best timing of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A cold front currently stretching from Mid-Atlantic Coast, through
Southern Kentucky and up into the Plains, continues to approach
the the Natural State. So far, isolated storms have formed ahead
of this boundary, with one moving into the northern sections of
the LZK warning area. Scattered storms will continue to be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves through Arkansas
today. The main threat with any storms will be severe winds with
a secondary threat of large hail. The Heat Advisory was continued
through the day due to heat indices expected to be between105-110
degrees ahead of the frontal passage. However, temperatures will
be dependent on the timing of the front. Cloud cover, storms, and
drier air filtering in from the north could also keep a few
counties in Northern Arkansas from reaching advisory criteria. A
drier, less humid, slightly cooler air mass will settle over the
region for the weekend as a broad upper high centered over the
plains increases upper level heights in our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper level ridging will result in quiet weather for the start of
next week. A disturbance embedded in NW flow around the stagnant
high in the southern plains will result in increased rain and
storm chances for the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
center of the upper high should begin to shift east across the
plains by mid-week. Long term models fall out of agreement later
in the forecast package but they do agree on slightly above
normal temperatures and possible diurnal thunderstorms later next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 92 71 86 69 / 30 10 10 0
Camden AR 96 79 93 73 / 40 30 10 0
Harrison AR 94 72 88 61 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 97 77 90 71 / 40 30 10 0
Little Rock AR 97 77 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
Monticello AR 95 77 88 72 / 40 30 10 0
Mount Ida AR 97 77 90 70 / 40 30 10 0
Mountain Home AR 94 73 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
Newport AR 93 69 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 96 76 89 73 / 40 20 10 0
Russellville AR 98 74 91 68 / 40 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 72 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 94 73 88 72 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.Aviation...
Flight categories are expected to be largely VFR during the 06z TAF
period...save some brief MVFR visibility reductions around sunrise.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon.
Given uncertainty in coverage and proximity to terminals, decided
to stick with mention of VCTS in most favored locations for now.
&&
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
303 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Upper ridge currently centered over western KS, which where the
thermal ridge resides. At the surface there is an expensive high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. On the western periphery of
that high is the remnants of a cold front that swept through the
Midwest yesterday and overnight. Ahead of that boundary dew points
have been pooling with values reaching 80 degrees. Day time mixing
has not lowered the dew points much due to the depth of the moisture
in the lowest levels. Therefore with temperatures reaching the mid
to upper 90s the heat indices have reached 110 mainly in northeast
KS. Across central KS the moisture is less deep and therefore dew
points have mixed into the 60s. This has caused the heat indices to
still reach 105 to 110 at those locations. There is still a slight
chance that the cap could break on the western edge of the moisture
although the forcing is fairly weak with the lack of overall
convergence. If that were to occur there would be the possibility of
large hail and damaging wind. Mlcape is over 3000 j/kg and the LCL
heights are rather high.
Tonight storms are expected to develop along a front in far
northwest KS and central NE. These storms will try to reach central
KS late this evening, but the chances are low at this point. As
these storms approach the area instability will decrease, but a few
storms may still be capable of hail and gusty wind mainly across
north central KS during the early morning hours. As of now the
chances for storms tomorrow are low, but what happens overnight will
ultimately determine that. The potential MCS that moves through
western KS could develop an MCV, and or outflow that redevelops
convection in our area. The models are also hinting at another MCS
in northeast NE that moves southward towards KS, and same concept
applies. The nested NAM and WRF solutions were showing showers and
storms trying to form tomorrow during the day, things will be more
clear tonight after things form. forecast soundings show that most
locations will have a strong cap in place tomorrow afternoon, so did
not increase pops much at all. One thing more certain is that the
east to southeast flow in the low levels will lower the temperatures
and dew points across the area. Also, any cloud cover or
precipitation will cause cooler temperatures. Therefore heat indices
are expected to range from 90 to 95 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
Saturday night through much of Monday look to have a good chance
of remaining dry as the upper ridge strengthens again while the
boundary layer airmass remains on the drier side by the assistance
of the Great Lakes surface high. This slightly drier low level
air should also keep heat indices below the critical thresholds
for heat advisories but it will be close as temperatures will
likely climb at least into the mid 90s with dewpoints increasing
back closer to 70.
By early next week, a series of short wave troughs riding along
the Canadian border will take a slight southward shift over the
Great Lakes and appear likely to push a cold front into the local
area. The timing of this front will impact our local weather, and
it seems likely to come close enough to northern KS to warrant
slight chances for thunderstorms late Monday. Expect a cap to be
in place but any frontal convergence may be sufficient to overcome
the cap in the immediate vicinity of the front.
It looks like the front will surge a bit farther south on Tuesday,
and thus Tuesday into Tuesday evening may provide the best chance
for storms in the forecast period...although again dependent upon
where the front sets up. Where thunderstorms do develop, expect
sufficient shear and instability for storm organization with a
non-zero severe weather threat.
Beyond Tuesday night through the rest of the week, the forecast
will depend largely on the location of the upper high. Some
guidance builds it more firmly overhead while another suite of
model guidance puts eastern KS in the transition zone which could
be a focus for weak upper disturbances and occasional MCS
activity. Do expect hot conditions through this period, but again
the magnitude of the heat will be greater if the ridge can build
more strongly overhead and confidence is on the low end regarding
this evolution at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
VFR is expected throughout the period. There is a chance for
thunderstorms mainly after 06Z, but model disagreement leaves too
much uncertainty to mention in the TAF at this time.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Heller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by large scale ridge
across the central US. A weak upper level shortwave trough is in
place across western Kansas. Surface low pressure is in place
across southern Colorado and southern Kansas, with several surface
troughs over our CWA. A cold front is moving into northeast
Colorado and is just now moving into NW Yuma county. Moist east to
southeast flow is also in place across our CWA advecting 60F to
70F Td values. These high Td values have combined with
temperatures in the upper 90s to produce heat index values around
105 across our eastern CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: The combination of convergence along surface
troughs and upper level shortwave trough should help with
thunderstorm initiation in a very unstable air mass. RAP analysis
shows SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across our CWA, with
values in excess of 5000 J/KG in our east. Shear profiles are very
weak, though by 00z effective bulk shear should increase to the 30-
35kt range from the west with development of LLJ. As cold front sags
south and LLJ kicks in we should see an increase in thunderstorm
coverage, with activity possibly lingering into the night. Guidance
shows a strong signal particularly in our east where I raised PoPs to
likely/numerous category.
Regarding Severe Impacts: While this type pattern generally favors
pulse type thunderstorms, the high CAPE profiles and higher ELs
raises the possibility for taller updrafts and larger hail potential.
Complications arises on hail size due to thunderstorms possibly
seeding each other lowering confidence in larger hail with the pulse
storms. In any case there is a increased chance for severe
thunderstorms and at least quarter size hail/60+ winds would be
concerns. Mean flow is nearly stationary in the west with storm
motion further east 5-15KT. The combination of moist inflow leading
to backbuilding/training and slow storm motion raises flash flood
potential.
Saturday: We will be post frontal with a slightly "cooler" air mass
in place. We will continue to see east-southeasterly surface flow
bring higher Tds into our CWA and this could lead to more fog
formation (though surface pattern may be disrupted by nighttime
convection). This could also lead to at least marginal to moderate
CAPE across our CWA and soundings show CIN weakening by the
afternoon. Complicating things will be position of ridge center and
how soon it moves into our CWA. If ridge remains just west as
GFS/ECMWF indicate then we may remain in a favorable region for
positive vorticity/weak shortwaves. A consensus of models show
activity initiating across our east either through midday or by the
afternoon, with NAM favoring subsidence and dry conditions. I
introduced slight chance PoPs to cover potential, however confidence
in the surface pattern and any upper level forcing are low.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
H5 ridge in place on Saturday afternoon moderates slightly, allowing
weak shortwaves to develop on the lee side of the central Rockies.
Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast for Sat and Sun afternoon in the
presence of decent instability; however, the forcing will be very
weak so initiation will be the main deciding factor with regards to
coverage. Another round of mainly scattered thunderstorms is
possible on Monday and Tuesday before the ridge builds back into the
central High Plains. A large area of low pressure will be situated
just off the Pacific Northwest coast at this time.
Temperatures will be above normal especially on Sunday as
temperatures soar once more into the upper 90s, otherwise low to mid-
90s will be the expected afternoon high temperature through Friday.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main issue today will be the
thunderstorms expected this afternoon for KMCK. Anticipate storms
to start a bit earlier in the afternoon than is typical, shortly
after 18z. Storms will steadily increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with a very slow movement to the north. By early
evening the storm coverage will be greatest. Any storms that
develop will be capable of producing damaging winds during the
afternoon. The storms will move east of the site during the
evening, with storm activity expected to end after 6z. KGLD should
be west of most of the storm activity.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL