Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/16/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
902 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will bring unseasonably cool and unsettled
weather across the region through the end of the week. Showers,
thunderstorms, and high elevation snow will be possible late
Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to warm up
Friday and over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue over Shasta County and areas to the north this
evening. The latest HRRR keeps some activity over Shasta County
through the night but gradually moves the activity eastward. Some
activity will move over the Lassen Park area around midnight but
amounts for the overnight hours look light. snow levels in that
area will may lower to between 5500 and 6500 feet by morning but
in general around an inch or less is expected.
As the trough deepens on Thursday a stronger and wetter wave will
move inland. The models are mixed on where the wave and associated
rain will make rainfall. The NAM moves it through Lake County and
northeast up through Lassen Park/Plumas County. The HRRR brings
the wave in a little further south into the Bay Area during the
morning hours. The GFS is closer to the HRRR in where it will
bring that wave inland but is a little more bullish in bringing
more rain inland into the valley and into the Sierra Nevada from
around I-80 northward. This wave looks to bring the most amount
of snow to the Lassen Park area but as time goes on snow levels
will rise from the afternoon through the night. Higher elevations
in Lassen Park could see some significant snowfall. Further south
snow levels look to be above pass levels and amounts less than 2
inches. Some steady rain looks possible over the valley during the
day where the wave ends up moving onshore.
On Friday the trough remains over the area with some slight
chances of showers or thunderstorms over the north end of the
valley and surrounding mountains continuing. It will take until
Saturday before chances of precipitation over the interior end and
the start of the warming trend begins.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
The extended forecast will be hot and dry weather for interior NorCal
as a large high pressure system strengthens into the western U.S.
Daytime highs will start out a few degrees above normal on Sunday
then climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Significantly strong winds are not expected but may
become locally breezy at times as weak disturbances pivot through
upper level southwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours except possible MVFR/IFR conditions
in showers or thunderstorms northern mountains and northern
Sacramento valley late this evening into Thursday. Breezy
southerly winds with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the delta and over
Sierra Cascades.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Western
Plumas County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
The mid-level ridge axis has become centered over the central U.S.,
with models showing this ridge strengthening and becoming more
amplified on Thursday. Light southerly winds were in place this
afternoon with the region wedged between surface low pressure to the
east and high pressure to the southeast. Observations showed a weak
convergence zone across central and south central Kansas, with
visible satellite showing some scattered cumulus developing along
this area of convergence. A moist airmass was in place over east
central to southeast Kansas with mesoscale analysis showing no cap
in place. These conditions combined with steep lapse rates was
resulting in decent instability of 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based
CAPE in east central Kansas. Additionally, models are showing the
potential for a weak embedded wave to develop within the ridge axis
late this afternoon into early this evening. The weak forcing from
this wave along with the presence of some isentropic lift on the
310K-315K surfaces may potentially result in the development of some
very isolated storms across portions of central and east central
Kansas. Despite the weak shear values, any storms that develop may
have the potential to become strong with the hazards being hail and
wind but storms would likely be short-lived. Due to the low-
confidence in the potential let along location of any storm
development, have only slight chance PoPs in at this time, but will
need to closely monitor the short-term trends. Additional scattered
storms may develop across far eastern Kansas overnight from
additional isentropic lift and may potentially clip extreme
northeast Kansas early Thursday morning. Otherwise expect
predominantly dry conditions through Thursday across the outlook
area.
The main focus for the short-term shifts to the high heat concerns.
With afternoon heat indices in the low 100s this afternoon across
east central Kansas, a heat advisory remains in effect. This heat
advisory has been expanded to include the entire outlook area for
Thursday as high temperatures are expected to soar into the upper
90s to low 100s. Models show a moisture axis extending northward
across the area, with the higher dewpoints (low/mid 70s) focused
across northeast and east central Kansas. The combination of hot
temperatures and moist conditions will likely result in heat indices
surging into the mid/upper 100s Thursday afternoon. We will need to
monitor these temperature/dewpoint conditions for Thursday to
determine whether or not any locations will need to be upgraded to
an Excessive Heat Warning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
Thursday Night through Saturday...
The forecast challenge for the Friday and Saturday time period is
heat and to a lessor extent, thunderstorm chances. A large scale
warm upper ridge is forecast to extend from the southwest U.S.
northeast through the plains during this period. Thermal ridge
remains to our west with continued hot temperatures. Since the
overall airmass is not changing during this period, expect highs
to reach the mid/upper 90s Fri-Sun. Dewpoint temperatures are
tricky. The models suggest that the boundary layer moist axis will
extend across eastern KS Friday and Saturday. The 30mb AGL
dewpoints on the GFS/NAM show an area high dewpoints or moisture
pool, over eastern OK and southeast KS this afternoon. Even with
afternoon mixing, dewpoints were in the upper 70s in this area.
This moist axis is forecast to extend over eastern KS this
weekend. Therefore, forecast of afternoon dewpoints in the
lower/middle 70s seems reasonable with lower values to the west.
The other consideration will be thunderstorm chances. Although the
airmass will be unstable, lack of an identifiable trigger is a
problem. Forecast small POPS Friday night into Sat morning to
account for the small chance of an MCS in the area. Otherwise, will
forecast dry weather.
Given the prolonged nature of the heat event and being early in the
season, elected to go with a excessive heat watch over the weekend.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Sustained southerly flow will allow hot and humid conditions to
continue through the weekend. With heat indicies approaching 105
degrees through Sunday, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued
through 00Z Monday. The only signal for precipitation in the
extended period arrives Monday into Tuesday as a weak cold front
progresses across the CWA. Scattered thunderstorm chances continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough
moves across portions of the central and northern plains. High
temperatures behind the cold front are expected to cool back into
the upper 80s and lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
VFR expected at terminals, although we are monitoring diurnal
driven convection west of KMHK. Short term guidance carries this
eastward by 01Z with possible development ahead of it so have
added VCTS through 05Z with the scattered coverage. IFR will be
likely if a storm passes directly overhead. Thereafter, light
southeast winds and a few high clouds prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
KSZ008>012-020>024-034.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Baerg/Johnson
AVIATION...prieto
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across
the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from
Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region.
There is a weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a
weak ripple in the 500mb height field. Several surface troughs
are in place within the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest
Nebraska and a second orientated near Hays. Near both of these
features Cu fields have develop, but the more impressive updrafts
near the convergence zone near a Hays also correlated with
approximate location of upper level shortwave trough.
This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into
the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east
temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory
criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak
mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as
trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values
with further drops in Td`s expected.
Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far
eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and
decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends
keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept
thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only
model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east,
however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values
holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on
soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution
guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction
I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today
(if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F
once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index
values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief
period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is
low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with
slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next
week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure
throughout the period.
Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and
centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region.
On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert
southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area
Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of
Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this
time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before
advancing again on Saturday.
The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into
Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the
weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions
become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure
over the High Plains.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region
early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold
front sags south towards the area.
The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the
mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100
degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s
early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Winds
will be light through tonight but increase to breezy again by
Thursday afternoon with deep mixing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
Upper shortwave trof over the Central Rockies is moving quickly to
the northeast, while outflows from convection over the panhandles
has made it as far northeast as the RDA at this hour. Forecast area
remains dry at this hour, with warm overnight lows again in the
lower 70s with dewpoints near 70.
For convection today, lack of strong concentrated lift or a discrete
boundary seems to be where models differ, as cap is weak and would
take little to initiate convection. Some models still bring in
morning showers and thunder from ongoing convection out west, though
the lift driving it is on the wane through the morning hours. HiRes
models also suggest isolated to scattered morning convection, before
a break late morning, with redevelopment late afternoon into the
evening and moving through the east central counties. GFS also
driving round of afternoon storms out of Nebraska into east central
counties in the evening. 06ZNAM showing some weak surface
convergence and a dewpoint gradient near the NE border where
synoptic lift is a bit better, and generates a line of storms in the
evening hours, with another round possible late evening over the far
east central counties although the source is a bit harder to
discern.
In any case, CAPE values in the column running 2000j/kg and
directional shear of 25-30kts would make hail the primary hazard,
and more likely so in the northern areas where better ingredients
come together to initiate storms. Couldn`t rule out a tornado if a
storm can get going along a boundary. End result was to spread
precip chances west to east, with a higher focus to the north and in
the east central into the evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
Westerly low-level winds overnight bring a somewhat warmer airmass
into the area for Wednesday, with conditions showing little change
in the mid to late week periods as upper ridge builds over the
central CONUS in modest advections. Models suggesting various ideas
of isolated to scattered convection potential returning as early as
Thursday night as PWs increase to over 1.5 inches again. Hard to
rule this out completely but not worthy of a mention. With 850mb
temps in the lower to middle 20s C, the main forecast challenge
looks to be dewpoint values. Have bumped values up a bit given weak
mixing, with peak heat index values around 105 in some places
through the end of the week, and only slightly cooler this weekend.
Heat headline potential will need to be monitored. There remains
some signal for the ridge breaking down early next week but
confidence in this is not high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
VFR prevails through period with concerns focusing on MVFR stratus
and fog from 10 to 14Z. Thereafter, scattered showers and thunder
may center near KMHK with more uncertainty further east at KTOP
and KFOE. With the main upper wave coming through in the late
afternoon evening, placed a VCTS for a few severe storms in the
area through 02Z before clearing skies.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Remnants of the Mesoscale convective complex (MCS) over SW KS has
moved south into Wrn OK at this time, with just a weak outflow
moving across the area. Lift associated with the main shortwave
currently in the Rockies and increased warm advection ahead of it,
has led to scattered showers/storms increasing across much of ern CO
and wrn KS early this morning. Expect this warm advection and lift
to gradually shift east into wrn sections of the forecast late this
morning, with scattered showers/storms breaking out for most areas
west of I-135 for the morning hours. Expect most of the morning
shower activity to slowly shift to NE into NE KS by midday, as a
hybrid pacific/dryline pushes out of wrn ks into Central KS by this
afternoon. Morning showers and associated cloudiness will make
diagnosing afternoon convective/severe storm chances
messy/difficult.
Lots of uncertainty on how this afternoon will play out as the
morning cloudiness limits afternoon heating. An unstable airmass
will be located across most of Ern KS, even with the cloudiness,
with SBCAPE values expected to climb into the 3500-4000 J/KG range.
As the shortwave over the high plains lifts north across Neb, bulk
shear is also expected to increase to 30-40 kts. Expect the morning
convection to become more surface based to the NE of the forecast
area as the afternoon progresses. But the big question further
south, will be if enough heating can materialize for the late
afternoon hours as the dryline line/front pushes to near I-135.
Latest hi-res models suggest that cloud cover will limit convective
chances for the late afternoon hours, possibly delaying chances the
small chance until this evening. Also with better dynamics further
north, think convective chances across the forecast area (further
south) will be isolated at best, to a few supercells, if heating can
allow atmosphere to erode the weak cap.
Consensus of the short range models places the dryline/front along I-
135 by this afternoon. If a storm can get going, the very unstable
airmass and shear suggests a supercell storm and severe potential,
especially for areas along and east of the Turnpike. Scratching my
head a little on the abrupt shift to the NE of the day 1 SPC
outlook. Would prefer to keep a severe mention for areas east of the
KS Turnpike with tennis ball size hail and damaging winds possible,
But an expected more isolated storm coverage is why the SPC shift to
the NE. Cannot completely rule out a low tornado threat, associated
with any supercell that can develop, possibly rooted along a remnant
outflow boundary which will increase helicity/low level shear. Best
chance for a supercell to develop will be across South Central KS
(if slower front progression materializes) and (more likely) across
the Flint HIlls in southern KS near the KS/OK border.
Expect any supercell that does develop to move east into Wrn MO
during the late evening hours. Thunderstorm chances appear to be
more numerous for areas NE of the forecast area across NE KS where
better dynamics look to be more focused.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting a "hot time in the old town" for the end of
the week, as the mid level ridge builds back across the plains.
Could see locations in South Central KS reach 100-102 degrees for
Wed and near 100 on Thu, as south-SW flow will lead to optimal
downslope conditions. Will have to keep an eye on areas east of the
KS Turnpike for Wed/Thu as the combination of the hot temps in the
upper 90s and humid air with surface dewpoints in the low 70s may
lead to Heat Index values reaching the 105 to 107 range. So a heat
advisory may be needed with later forecast issuance`s across
extreme Southern KS.
Plan on keeping the end of the week into the weekend dry, as the
ridge builds across the area. Could see a few spurious/isolated
storms develop on Wed, Thu or Fri across Srn KS as a weak impulse
drifts underneath the ridge, with temps possibly reaching their
convective temp. But chance is too isolated and low to mention just
yet.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Complicated and difficult forecast regarding thunderstorm chances
and potential low ceilings overnight into Tuesday morning.
Expect gusty/erratic winds for a few hours past midnight over
portions of central and south-central KS in response to decaying
shower/thunderstorm complex approaching from the west, including
Wichita. May see a few showers associated with this feature, but
thinking most areas will remain dry. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight into early
Tuesday morning from western into central and northern KS in
response to increasing warm advection/moisture transport ahead of
Central Rockies upper trough, including Great Bend-Salina-Russell,
and maybe Hutchinson. Meanwhile, locations that remain
undisturbed from convective outflow could see low clouds once
again later tonight into early Tuesday, probably mainly southeast
KS, including Chanute and maybe Wichita-Hutchinson. Furthermore,
additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may form
generally east of I-135 Tuesday afternoon. Some of these may be
severe with large hail/damaging winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 93 72 101 75 / 30 20 10 10
Hutchinson 92 69 101 73 / 30 10 10 10
Newton 91 71 99 73 / 30 20 10 10
ElDorado 91 71 97 73 / 30 30 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 93 73 99 74 / 30 30 10 10
Russell 91 66 101 72 / 40 10 10 10
Great Bend 91 67 101 72 / 40 10 10 10
Salina 92 68 101 74 / 40 10 10 10
McPherson 92 69 100 74 / 30 10 10 10
Coffeyville 90 74 96 74 / 30 40 10 10
Chanute 90 73 98 74 / 30 40 10 10
Iola 91 72 98 74 / 30 40 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 90 74 97 74 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The extended period is expected to be hot and dry!
A upper level ridge will influence the High Plains as an area
of high pressure expands across the southwestern U.S. over the
weekend. A few weak shortwaves looks to be in the flow aloft, but
with the dry airmass in place, don`t expect more than an
isolated thunderstorm or two as they move off the higher terrain
and dissipate over the plains.
This pattern will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures each
day with the daily high temperatures reaching the middle 90s to
the lower 100s range, from west to east, across the Tri- State
area. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s
and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska.
However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern
Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing
storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature.
Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper
level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the
NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus.
Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow
boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed.
Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now,
did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear
tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western
Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon
the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing
skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and
variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon
around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper
ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will
range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge
City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For the period of Wednesday into next Monday, upper level ridging
builds deeply into the Central Plains. This will cause hot
temperatures around 100 to 102 degrees each day with very warm lows
around 70. Heat index values should stay below the 105 degree
thresholds for heat advisory. There also will be very little to no
chance for any precipitation though this period. Winds will be
mainly southerly through the period with clear to mostly clear skies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10
P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western
Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon
the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing
skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and
variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon
around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper
ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will
range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge
City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For the period of Wednesday into next Monday, upper level ridging
builds deeply into the Central Plains. This will cause hot
temperatures around 100 to 102 degrees each day with very warm lows
around 70. Heat index values should stay below the 105 degree
thresholds for heat advisory. There also will be very little to no
chance for any precipitation though this period. Winds will be
mainly southerly through the period with clear to mostly clear skies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10
P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western
Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon
the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing
skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and
variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon
around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper
ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will
range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge
City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas.
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at
least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains
with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific. Winds shift back
to a southerly direction Wednesday as a trough of low pressure
develops across eastern Colorado. This feature is expected to
continue through the remainder of the week with winds meandering
between a southerly and southwesterly direction. As for
temperatures, highs look to hover around 100 degrees each day with
lows ranging from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to
lower 70s across south central Kansas each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10
P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry.
The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the
week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of
high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area
centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high
plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the
plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the
southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry
airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t
expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the
higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains.
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably
hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally
ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east
across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to
recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are
anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further
monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and
south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing
a heat highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska.
However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern
Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing
storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature.
Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper
level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the
NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus.
Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow
boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed.
Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now,
did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear
tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry.
The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the
week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of
high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area
centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high
plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the
plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the
southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry
airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t
expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the
higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains.
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably
hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally
ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east
across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to
recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are
anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further
monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and
south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing
a heat highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska.
However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern
Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing
storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature.
Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper
level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the
NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus.
Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow
boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed.
Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now,
did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear
tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1159 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorm complex currently over southwest KS and OK Panhandle
should continue to maintain its strength over the next few hours
given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment over the
High Plains. Propagation will likely maintain to the
east/southeast along northern fringe of highest theta-e air over
the southern High Plains. Thinking with time the complex may tend
to weaken/diminish some as it approaches south-central KS toward
11pm-midnight, due to lack of appreciable low-level jet, lower
instability and weaker shear. Short-term hi-res guidance supports
this scenario. Beyond midnight, thunderstorm forecast confidence
is low, with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere
along and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest
moisture transport/warm advection, underneath broad large scale
ascent ahead of approaching upper trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Main concern is convective potential throughout the period.
Confidence is low that any of the models have a good handle, but
midday RAP seemed to be the best fit to anticipated evolution.
Current theory is that convection in Southeast KS will continue to
bubble until sunset, with combo of heating and location ahead of
weak mid level boundary evident on morning upper air analysis.
Meanwhile convection appears likely in Western Nebraska and
potentially into Colorado/Western KS this evening. Am not inclined
to believe most models showing due east movement given what
happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although
slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent.
Went slower than previous forecast moving precipitation in
tonight, mostly likely reaching Central KS closer to midnight and
then into South Central KS around daybreak. Whether precipitation
holds together and amount of areal coverage is questionable given
lack of good baroclinic zone or upper wave.
Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday:
Tuesday afternoon is a wild card with much depending on extent
and track of convection Monday night/Tuesday morning. In absence
of extensive precipitation/clouds over the area, conditions would
favor a higher end severe threat. However if models are correct
with extensive precipitation in NE KS in the morning, the outflow
could either enhance or nix thunderstorm chances in Southeast KS,
depending on how far south it goes. Temperatures will be highly
dependent on amount of convective debris. May flirt with heat
advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday along OK border in
Southeast KS. Given high uncertainty in precipitation, opted to
not go with a headline. Maxes on Wednesday should be warmer as
500MB ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures possibly a degree or
two cooler on Thursday. Capping/lack of forcing should shut down
precipitation chances on both Wednesday/Thursday. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Little change to initialization grids. Given anticipated 1000-850
thicknesses, did shave a degree off maxes on Friday and upped
maxes in the Sunday/Monday. Chances for precipitation this period
look to be slim. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Complicated and difficult forecast regarding thunderstorm chances
and potential low ceilings overnight into Tuesday morning.
Expect gusty/erratic winds for a few hours past midnight over
portions of central and south-central KS in response to decaying
shower/thunderstorm complex approaching from the west, including
Wichita. May see a few showers associated with this feature, but
thinking most areas will remain dry. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight into early
Tuesday morning from western into central and northern KS in
response to increasing warm advection/moisture transport ahead of
Central Rockies upper trough, including Great Bend-Salina-Russell,
and maybe Hutchinson. Meanwhile, locations that remain
undisturbed from convective outflow could see low clouds once
again later tonight into early Tuesday, probably mainly southeast
KS, including Chanute and maybe Wichita-Hutchinson. Furthermore,
additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may form
generally east of I-135 Tuesday afternoon. Some of these may be
severe with large hail/damaging winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 72 97 72 99 / 30 20 20 10
Hutchinson 72 95 69 99 / 40 30 10 10
Newton 71 95 71 99 / 30 30 20 10
ElDorado 71 93 71 97 / 20 30 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 72 96 73 98 / 30 20 20 10
Russell 69 92 66 100 / 40 40 10 10
Great Bend 69 93 67 100 / 40 40 10 10
Salina 72 95 68 100 / 40 40 10 10
McPherson 71 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10
Coffeyville 70 95 74 96 / 10 30 30 10
Chanute 70 93 73 96 / 20 30 40 10
Iola 70 92 72 96 / 20 30 40 10
Parsons-KPPF 70 93 74 96 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers have continued to re-generate over north central ND during
the last few hours, and radar suggests that trend may continue for
a while, so we increased PoPs in that area with this update cycle.
Little in the way of change was made to the rest of the forecast,
with the main challenge today determining the northwest extent of
the more solid showers and storms. Recent RAP and HRRR model runs
continue to suggest the James River valley will be favored for
heavier precipitation, with Bismarck/Mandan near the west edge of
the more solid precipitation shield.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Confidence in the forecast for today is not high with respect to
rain and thunderstorms. Great way to start the discussion, right?
Showers across the north are left over from what moved out of
Montana last night. They were pushing north but the parent short
wave was slow to exit, resulting in continued shower formation on
the south side of the activity.
A large area of rain has been over south central South Dakota all
night. The high resolution short term models brought this batch
north with the highest chances of rain from Bismarck through the
James River Valley. Radar trends have been to weaken the area of
rain and push it more east. In turn the latest hourly model runs
have still brought it into North Dakota, but farther east, with
Bismarck just getting a glancing blow. The latest trend, as of
this writing, is that the large rain area was rapidly weakening
while convection was firing on the nose of the short wave and left
front of the jet max, to the east of it. This spells uncertainty
as to just how much rain falls, and where. Looks like the James
River Valley has the highest chances.
Another fly is the dry slot, where it ends up, and the likelihood
that it will lead to thunderstorm development. And, another wave
coming through eastern Montana later with some storms possible
along the state line there.
At any rate, rain ends this evening and dry weather starts
Wednesday off before the next wave in the southwest flow comes in
later in the day.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Storms look possible later Wednesday. Then, on Thursday the ridge
builds back in with sunshine and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. A
southeast surface flow brings increasing dew points that in turn
act to increase instability. The lifting mechanism is a surface
trough coming out of Montana. This looks to bring the chance for
severe storms to the forecast area Thursday evening.
Southwest flow and wave after wave through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely today in the southern
James River valley. We are less confident in the coverage of shower
and thunderstorm activity over the rest of the west and central so
the 12 UTC TAFs mainly used VCSH and VCTS mentions except at KJMS.
Local MVFR conditions are possible when and where showers and
storms occur today. Showers and storms will diminish after 00 UTC.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
924 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and seasonal weather, but with less extensive coastal clouds,
will continue through Friday. A high pressure ridge will strengthen
this weekend to bring very hot weather to the region through early
next week. High temperatures will approach record levels for most if
not all areas of Socal. A slow cooling trend is expected by the
middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
...evening update...
No updates were needed this evening. The 00z sounding shows that the
marine layer continues its very slow decline as a large high
pressure ridge begins to eat into Socal. This feature will dominate
the regions weather this weekend through early to mid next week.
Record breaking temperatures appear likely for many locations with
this heat event. One of our Facebook fans brought up a great
question this evening about the potential for excessive humidity to
sync up during this event. If you look at the medium range placement
of the center of the monster high across the desert SW by early next
week, there could be an ideal setup to rotate some subtropical
moisture around the high into parts of our region. If this happens
it could bring slightly less hot temperatures, but an influx of
higher relative humidity air and thus potential impacts from the
heat index. Something that we would have to fine tune in the
higher forecast as we get closer to the start of the event.
...previous forecast discussion from early afternoon...
It`s a rare day when downtown San Diego clears out four hours
before it does in San Bernardino, but that`s what happened today.
The entire coast has cleared out quite well. Our deep marine
layer will become more shallow and the coastal clouds less
extensive tonight into Thursday as a low pressure trough currently
overhead will gradually retreat as a high pressure ridge expands
over the next few days. The marine layer will respond by retreating
as well, with successively less extensive coastal clouds each
night and morning. A big warming trend across the entire region is
coming and will bring hazardous heat levels by Sunday, except near
the coast. Guidance shows the core of the high pressure ridge over
the Southwest to be as strong as we ever see it during any given
summer in this part of the world. So I guess it`s fitting summer
officially starts on Monday, what should be the hottest day of our
heat wave. The main message of our Excessive Heat Watch is to get
ready for the heat particularly away from the coast Sunday through
Tuesday. Temperatures will exceed 100 in most valleys and all
deserts, even exceeding 115 in the lower deserts. The expansive
high pressure ridge is shown by guidance to back off just a bit
around the middle of next week. If that happens, it will allow the
marine layer to reassert itself a little, but far inland areas
will not cool much.
&&
.AVIATION...
160330Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN013-018 tops 022 at the coast spreading
10-20 miles inland through 14Z. Areas of vis 3-5SM BR HZ in the
western valleys and Inland Empire between 12-17Z including KONT. The
stratus will retreat back to the coast through 17z Thursday.
Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Thursday. Gusty west winds 25-35 KT each afternoon and evening
through Friday on desert mountain slopes, through the San Gorgonio
Pass and into the northern Coachella Valley.
&&
.MARINE...
830 PM...Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 kts over the Outer Waters
tonight, decreasing early Thursday morning. Wind increasing again
Thursday afternoon and evening.
No hazardous marine weather is expected Friday through Sunday.
&&
.BEACHES...
830 PM...A 4-foot, 17-20 second southerly swell will continue
through Thursday, bringing elevated surf to local beaches. A High
Surf Advisory is in effect for Orange County for surf of 5 to 7 ft
with occasional sets to 9 ft. Strong rip currents.
In San Diego County the surf won`t be quite as high, so a Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect for surf of 3 to 6 feet, locally
reaching 7 feet at times. Strong longshore currents at the beaches.
The swell and surf will gradually lower Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange
County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San
Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and
Foothills.
Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for San Diego
County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County
Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JMB/MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Moede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
902 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will bring unseasonably cool and unsettled
weather across the region through the end of the week. Showers,
thunderstorms, and high elevation snow will be possible late
Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to warm up
Friday and over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue over Shasta County and areas to the north this
evening. The latest HRRR keeps some activity over Shasta County
through the night but gradually moves the activity eastward. Some
activity will move over the Lassen Park area around midnight but
amounts for the overnight hours look light. snow levels in that
area will may lower to between 5500 and 6500 feet by morning but
in general around an inch or less is expected.
As the trough deepens on Thursday a stronger and wetter wave will
move inland. The models are mixed on where the wave and associated
rain will make rainfall. The NAM moves it through Lake County and
northeast up through Lassen Park/Plumas County. The HRRR brings
the wave in a little further south into the Bay Area during the
morning hours. The GFS is closer to the HRRR in where it will
bring that wave inland but is a little more bullish in bringing
more rain inland into the valley and into the Sierra Nevada from
around I-80 northward. This wave looks to bring the most amount
of snow to the Lassen Park area but as time goes on snow levels
will rise from the afternoon through the night. Higher elevations
in Lassen Park could see some significant snowfall. Further south
snow levels look to be above pass levels and amounts less than 2
inches. Some steady rain looks possible over the valley during the
day where the wave ends up moving onshore.
On Friday the trough remains over the area with some slight
chances of showers or thunderstorms over the north end of the
valley and surrounding mountains continuing. It will take until
Saturday before chances of precipitation over the interior end and
the start of the warming trend begins.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
The extended forecast will be hot and dry weather for interior NorCal
as a large high pressure system strengthens into the western U.S.
Daytime highs will start out a few degrees above normal on Sunday
then climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Significantly strong winds are not expected but may
become locally breezy at times as weak disturbances pivot through
upper level southwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours except possible MVFR/IFR conditions
in showers or thunderstorms northern mountains and northern
Sacramento valley late this evening into Thursday. Breezy
southerly winds with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the delta and over
Sierra Cascades.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Western
Plumas County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure over the Great lakes will track southeast to
the North Carolina coast by Friday. High pressure builds in from
the north for the weekend and the start of the new week. A cold
front approaches on Tuesday and passes late in the day. High
pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Main area of PCPN over Northern NJ and NE PA trying to work east
towards the NY Metro as of 07Z. Mid level isentropic lift is the
forcing mechanism. Based on the latest HRRR and RAP, along with
the 00Z deterministic model runs, thinking very little in the way
of PCPN. Will thus continue with the sprinkles for the Morning
after 12Z. Until then, light RA likely for 1 or 2 hundredths.
Otherwise, a mostly cloudy day with late clearing from the east to
west.
Temps are close to the GFS MOS (the warmer solution) which appears
to account for the late clearing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NW flow continues with the short wave tracking across VA to Cape
Hatteras by Friday afternoon. Dry through the period with partly
cloudy skies and a light southeast wind on Friday.
Blended MOS was used which had little spread for this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWP models are in good agreement into Sat...then differences with
a potential cutoff low over the Western Atlantic begin to take
shape with lower confidence in the forecast thereafter.
Upper trough axis progged to be east of the area Fri night with
an extension of a strengthening upper level ridge over the
Southwestern US building across the country and into the Northeast
for at least the first half of the weekend...possibly into early
next week. This deep layered ridge will raise H5 heights around
588 dam Sun and Mon with the warmest H85 temps around 17C on Mon.
This should be the warmest day of the week yielding highs in the
mid to upper 80s across inland locations. A SW flow will keep
temps closer to the 80 degree mark at the coast. Heights begin to
fall Tue as the center of the strong high over the Southwest
shifts west and a longwave trough over central Canada drops into
the Great Lakes and Northeast.
The potential fly in the long term forecast ointment is a cutoff
low developing somewhere over the Western Atlantic on Sun. Many of
the 15/12z ECENS members show this development...although there is
very high spread in where. WPC notes that only 7 ECENS members and
2 Canadian members continue to hold on to the closed low soln
between 75-80W lon. Deterministic GFS/EC/GEM/NAM also have large
differences at 84hrs which continue into early next week. Have a
schc pops for sun aftn/sun night associated with this
feature...then a kicker trough approaching from the Great Lakes
will send it on its way out to sea.
A cold front moves across on Tue bringing the chance of
showers/tstms mainly during the aftn/eve. Upper trough axis
passing through on wed may trigger some isold showers on Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure passes south of the region early this
morning. High pressure then starts to build over the area from the
north this afternoon into tonight.
Light to locally moderate rain for nyc/nj metro terminals through
12-14z...with low prob for mvfr cigs between 12z and 16z.
Otherwise...vfr with just sprinkles through late morning.
Light wind this morning with weak s/se sea breezes developing
this afternoon for most terminals. Winds become light and variable
this evening.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low
prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. S seabreeze development
expected between 16z and 18z.
KLGA TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low
prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. S seabreeze development
expected between 17z and 19z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low
prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. SE seabreeze development
expected between 16z and 18z.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low
prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. SSe seabreeze development
expected between 16z and 18z.
KHPN TAF Comments: S/SE seabreeze development expected between
17z and 19z. low prob for rain showers wetting runways this
morning.
KISP TAF Comments: S/SE seabreeze development expected between
16z and 18z. low prob for rain showers wetting runways this
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Friday THROUGH MONDAY...
.Late Tonight-Fri...VFR with light easterly winds.
.Sat-Mon...VFR with light southwest flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Tranquil weather today. light sea breezes develop along the coasts
this afternoon.
Low pressure passes well southwest of the waters on Friday as high
pressure starts to build into the region for the weekend. Thus sub-
SCA conditions through the weekend.
Tranquil conditions on the waters until early next week with the
gradient tightening Tue as SW flow increases ahead of a cold
front. SCA conds are possible...especially on the ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for rain is Tuesday of next week with the
approach and passage of a cold front. No hydrologic concerns at
this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Tongue
NEAR TERM...Tongue
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...24/Tongue
HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
MCV continues to slowly move eastward across the southern portion of
the forecast area. Light showers continue, as do strong winds on
the north side of the low where dissipating/evaporating showers are
likely contributing to the broad area of 30-45mph wind gusts on the
north side of the low. This has also kept temperatures up in the 80s
in areas where the winds are occurring. Expect this to move off to
the east over the next several hours. Will leave some morning cloud
cover and likely some residual surface boundaries over the area, but
with lack of a lifting mechanism to break the cap, and an upper
ridge moving overhead by mid afternoon, will keep forecast dry at
this time. High temperatures expected to reach upper 90s east to
near 102 out west, and the heat advisory continues. Overnight lows
also look to stay warm in the middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Models continue to show at least minor potential for convection to
impact the area Friday into Saturday. Appears overnight convection
tonight along the weak boundary will remain to the northeast, though
can`t rule out outflow pushing southwest into the area late in the
night. More likely scenario for precip is development occurring to
the northwest along inverted trough axis where cap will be the
weakest. This activity could reach the area in the late afternoon --
when peak heating/heat index values would be anticipated. Along with
slight low level cooling and models` rather high afternoon
dewpoint bias in recent days, have decided to keep the Watch going
for Friday. Models are also similar with a weak PV anomaly
swinging southeast around the ridge into eastern Kansas Friday
night and could aid in convection persisting on through the area,
perhaps into Saturday. Bumped up pops a bit based on more
consistent precip signal. Some guidance keeps clouds rather
persistent through the day Saturday and could provide a break in
the excessive heat, but most guidance would push apparent temps
back to near Advisory levels, close enough to keep the Watch
going. South winds should return Sunday as the eastern surface
ridge moves off which brings higher temperature and dewpoint
potential, though just how much of either is uncertain. Monday
could bring another hot day as the weak cold front nears but much
too little confidence to extend the Watch. Most widespread precip
potential still comes Monday night into Tuesday night as the front
settles in.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
VFR prevails through forecast period with light southerly winds.
Will continue to monitor showers and thunder south of KTOP/KFOE.
All guidance keeps this activity away from developing. May peak
near 10 kts in the late afternoon but otherwise some diurnal
cumulus in the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday for
KSZ008>012-020>024-034.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Main concern continues to be hot and humid conditions for the next
few days, as mid level heights increase, as a large ridge builds
across the plains. As this ridge builds into the area, south-
southwest flow will lead to very warm temperatures across the region
for Today-Fri and possibly into Sat. Could see most of Central and
South Central KS make the century mark today, with KSLN and KRSL
possibly breaking record high temps (both 104 degrees). The summer
time temps arent the only issue, as surface dewpoints are expected
to remain in the low-mid 70s for areas east of I-135, this will lead
to heat index values climbing into the 107 to 110 range for this
afternoon (possibly into Fri as well). A Heat advisory has already
been issued for today for this dangerous combination of
heat/humidity for most of the region. Plan on extending the heat
advisory into Fri as well, but think the heat index values will be
slightly lower in the 103-106 range. also plan on keeping the
excessive heat watch in effect for the weekend, as the extended heat
tends to build up, which may lead to an excessive heat warning
needed for the weekend.
Not expecting a repeat of yesterday evenings convection, as mid
level temps will continue to increase across the forecast area, with
700h temps climbing to +15-16. The warm temps aloft will effectively
cap off any convection from developing. Latest NamNest (which
handled convection placement quite well yesterday) shows a weak
convergence area to the northeast of the forecast area, with main
axis of 180-200% precipitable water values located over ern Neb into
NE KS. This looks like the more favorable area for diurnally driven
isolated storms to erupt this afternoon given the max temps
forecast.
Plan on keeping Fri-Sun mostly dry for now as the ridge remains
across the area. Could see a few spurious/isolated storms develop on
Fri afternoon with the hot temperatures and high PWAT values across
the area. So could see an isolated storm mention added with later
forecasts. There is some model indications of some sort of complex
of storms may try to develop across NW MO on Friday night, and
possibly track south into SE KS by Sat morning. So will insert a
slight pop for SE KS for this chance.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
The hot and dry weather pattern will continue through the end of
weekend as models show the upper level ridging remaining quite
pronounced across the region. The upper level ridge looks to flatten
out and tighten the thermal/height gradient aloft across the
northern plains for the beginning of the week (Monday/Tuesday). This
pattern will push a frontal boundary slowly southward across
Nebraska into northern Kansas for early next week, which will bring
some relief from the very warm temperatures. Slow movement of this
front across the area for Mon night into Tue may lead to part of the
extended becoming more active when it comes to convection and
possibly convective storm complexes across the plains, given the
high instability expected to be located along or just south of this
boundary.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move slowly
southeast across the region overnight. Outflow winds from the
northwest will gradually veer around to the east then southeast
overnight. VFR conditions expected during the day on Thursday as
southerly winds increase.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 101 75 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 102 75 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 101 75 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
ElDorado 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 99 76 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 104 71 103 71 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 104 72 102 71 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 104 76 103 74 / 10 10 10 20
McPherson 103 75 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 20
Iola 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ048>053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening
for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Friday for
KSZ033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range
models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward
across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture
will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas
resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier
air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across
southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected
again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air
mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a
little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above
100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and
the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night.
In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of
moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely
pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in
central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward
of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting
the heat advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across central
Kansas late Friday afternoon and evening as medium range models
indicate a weak perturbation cycling east-southeast across the
axis of an upper level ridge building northeast across the
Central Plains. While this occurs, surface low pressure just lee
of the Rockies is projected to become more organized as it shifts
eastward into extreme western Kansas. With surface high pressure
remaining locked in across the Great Lakes, this will set up a
band of increased convergence across the plains of eastern Nebraska
and portions of northern Kansas. Considering the ample amount of
moisture/instability across the region, a few isolated thunderstorms
may develop across central Kansas late Friday afternoon as capping
weakens with chances possible through late Friday evening. However,
the potential for severe weather will remain hindered by a fairly
weak flow aloft. A dry and hot weather pattern is then expected to
persist through the weekend as an upper level high setting up
across the Desert Southwest builds northeast across the Western
High Plains.
High temperatures will likely reach near 100F again Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday with little change expected to the general
air mass across the high plains of western Kansas through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across
eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while
increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side
trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 69 101 69 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 100 63 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 100 62 100 63 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 100 66 102 66 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 102 69 103 70 / 10 10 10 10
P28 102 73 103 73 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range
models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward
across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture
will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas
resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier
air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across
southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected
again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air
mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a
little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above
100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and
the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night.
In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of
moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely
pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in
central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward
of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting
the heat advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The medium range models show the upper level ridge continuing to
build over the CONUS through the weekend into the first part of
next week. This will keep the region in a heat wave with high
temperatures up around 100 degrees through Monday. The 00z and 12z
runs of the GFS as well as the 12z ECMWF are both hinting at a
westward retrogression of the upper ridge around next Tuesday with
west northwest flow aloft developing over the central Plains.
Still a ways out but if this does develop we should see a frontal
boundary pushing perhaps as far south as Oklahoma which would
bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to western Kansas in
the upslope flow regime north of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across
eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while
increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side
trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 66 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 102 69 103 / 10 10 10 0
P28 70 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range
models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward
across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture
will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas
resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier
air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across
southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this
afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected
again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air
mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a
little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above
100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and
the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night.
In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of
moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely
pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in
central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward
of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting
the heat advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The medium range models show the upper level ridge continuing to
build over the CONUS through the weekend into the first part of
next week. This will keep the region in a heat wave with high
temperatures up around 100 degrees through Monday. The 00z and 12z
runs of the GFS as well as the 12z ECMWF are both hinting at a
westward retrogression of the upper ridge around next Tuesday with
west northwest flow aloft developing over the central Plains.
Still a ways out but if this does develop we should see a frontal
boundary pushing perhaps as far south as Oklahoma which would
bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to western Kansas in
the upslope flow regime north of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across
eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while
increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side
trough strengthens.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 66 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 102 69 103 / 10 10 10 0
P28 70 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across
the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from
Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region.
There is a weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a
weak ripple in the 500mb height field. Several surface troughs
are in place within the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest
Nebraska and a second orientated near Hays. Near both of these
features Cu fields have develop, but the more impressive updrafts
near the convergence zone near a Hays also correlated with
approximate location of upper level shortwave trough.
This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into
the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east
temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory
criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak
mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as
trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values
with further drops in Td`s expected.
Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far
eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and
decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends
keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept
thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only
model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east,
however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values
holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on
soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution
guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction
I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today
(if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F
once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index
values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief
period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is
low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with
slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next
week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure
throughout the period.
Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and
centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region.
On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert
southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area
Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of
Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this
time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before
advancing again on Saturday.
The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into
Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the
weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions
become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure
over the High Plains.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region
early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold
front sags south towards the area.
The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the
mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100
degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s
early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
winds will be gusty for a part of the overnight hours...the result
of outflow boundaries originating from thunderstorms in central
and eastern Kansas. They will subside a bit around sunrise before
increasing again from the southwest Thursday morning with deep
mixing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1139 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions and anticipate VFR
conditions for the remainder of the forecast period after 15z. The
only exception could be at KMCB and KHUM where patchy light fog is
possible around sunrise. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in
the afternoon with high probability to the east near KGPT and
less likely to the west around KBTR.
MEFFER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure over
Florida peninsula to northeast and central Gulf of Mexico.
Southwest flow was present across the south half of Louisiana and
Southern Mississippi this afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings
were generally in the mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Warm temperatures along with these dewpoint readings have pushed
heat index values up to 105 area wide...up to 108 heat index value
in the River Parishes this afternoon.
Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Alabama to
north central Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to the Dakotas. In
addition, vigorous wave was noted in the northern stream over
Northern Minnesota. Precipitable water field showed pooling along
the wave axis from central Georgia to Southeast Louisiana coastal
waters with 2 to 2.2 inches...1.8 to 1.6 inches over the forecast
area to southwest Louisiana. 18
discussion...
Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through
Thursday maintaining a weakness across the northeast Gulf through
Friday. This will allow the deep moisture to shift east as well
and rain chances will decrease to below norms through Friday.
Short wave in the northern stream will dive southeast and allow
the ridge to amplify over the Plains and Missouri Valley Thursday
and Friday. Low level moisture will remain intact as increased
heights will support afternoon highs in the mid 90s Thursday and
Friday. Short range models and model blends continue to push
dewpoints down to the lower 70s for both days...resulting in heat
index values approaching 105. If dewpoint readings remain in the
upper 70s tonight, a Heat Advisory will likely be issued for
part of the forecast area Thursday through Friday.
As the short wave in the northern stream moves off the East
Coast...the ridge axis will become west/east and likely develop
into a large anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains.
The associated axis of the short wave will push across the
forecast area around the large upper high Saturday creating an
increase in rain chances for the area Friday night and Saturday.
Some of these storms could by strong with movement from northeast
to southwest and contain strong gusty winds. With the broad anti-
cyclonic circulation expanding east...rain chances will decrease
especially across the north half zones next week but will maintain
higher rain chances south half zones.
MARINE...
Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week
until Saturday when winds shift to the east through Monday.
Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most
of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over
the eastern waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to
develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the
nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi
Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2
foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds
should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the
coast take hold. Convection should be less widespread through
Friday than what has occurred the last few days. Surface high will build
over the Carolinas to the Mid South creating the moderate east
flow over the north gulf late Saturday through Monday. Seas are
expected to build up to 6 well offshore Saturday night and Sunday.
18
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 95 75 97 / 10 20 10 10
BTR 74 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 77 94 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
MSY 78 93 78 95 / 20 20 10 10
GPT 78 93 78 95 / 20 30 20 20
PQL 77 92 77 95 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1137 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold over
the region with clear to mostly clear skies prevailing. Exception
to this will be a possibility of another round of light late night
fog at AEX, along with MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings
developing. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds will continue.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on target tonight, with only minor adjustments to
hourly grids to better fit current obs/trends.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area.
VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more
than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally
remain light from the southwest.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
UPDATE...
Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory
criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer
with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across
a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees.
Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday
afternoon through early evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 77 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1112 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold over
the region with clear to mostly skies prevailing. Exception to
this will be a possibility of another round of light late night
fog at AEX, along with MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings
developing. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds will continue.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on target tonight, with only minor adjustments to
hourly grids to better fit current obs/trends.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area.
VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more
than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally
remain light from the southwest.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
UPDATE...
Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory
criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer
with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across
a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees.
Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday
afternoon through early evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 77 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1015 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on target tonight, with only minor adjustments to
hourly grids to better fit current obs/trends.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area.
VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more
than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally
remain light from the southwest.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
UPDATE...
Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory
criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer
with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across
a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees.
Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday
afternoon through early evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 77 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1006 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
For the 10 PM update made a few minor changes to the sky cover
overnight and placed a range for the afternoon heat index values.
No other significant changes. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout much of the 00Z TAF pd.
MVFR stratus/patchy fog will be possible around sunrise at all
sites, but any restrictions will mix out by mid morning.
Otherwise, light sly winds overnight will increase to between 8
and 12 kts after sunrise. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2
pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70
dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating.
Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire
four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values
near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E
TX. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill
Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu.
As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which
should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow
dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index
values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu
aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to
upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added
another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying
it out until 7 pm Fri evng.
There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level
ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region
of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great
Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The
proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc
front to move into our region late Friday Night from the
northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional
warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat
Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we
should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat
Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our
region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance
pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak
backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps
sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our
Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps.
For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once
again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners
region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and
east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually
no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by
mid week next week.
Prelims to follow...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 73 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 75 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06/12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout much of the 00Z TAF pd.
MVFR stratus/patchy fog will be possible around sunrise at all
sites, but any restrictions will mix out by mid morning.
Otherwise, light sly winds overnight will increase to between 8
and 12 kts after sunrise. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2
pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70
dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating.
Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire
four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values
near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E
TX. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill
Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu.
As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which
should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow
dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index
values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu
aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to
upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added
another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying
it out until 7 pm Fri evng.
There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level
ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region
of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great
Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The
proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc
front to move into our region late Friday Night from the
northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional
warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat
Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we
should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat
Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our
region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance
pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak
backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps
sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our
Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps.
For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once
again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners
region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and
east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually
no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by
mid week next week.
Prelims to follow...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 72 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout much of the 00Z TAF pd.
MVFR stratus/patchy fog will be possible around sunrise at all
sites, but any restrictions will mix out by mid morning.
Otherwise, light sly winds overnight will increase to between 8
and 12 kts after sunrise. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2
pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70
dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating.
Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire
four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values
near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E
TX. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill
Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu.
As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which
should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow
dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index
values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu
aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to
upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added
another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying
it out until 7 pm Fri evng.
There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level
ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region
of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great
Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The
proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc
front to move into our region late Friday Night from the
northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional
warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat
Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we
should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat
Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our
region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance
pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak
backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps
sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our
Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps.
For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once
again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners
region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and
east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually
no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by
mid week next week.
Prelims to follow...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 72 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area.
VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more
than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally
remain light from the southwest.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
UPDATE...
Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory
criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer
with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across
a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees.
Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday
afternoon through early evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory
criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer
with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across
a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees.
Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday
afternoon through early evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...K. KUYPER/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory
criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer
with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across
a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees.
Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday
afternoon through early evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...K. KUYPER/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down
the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last
week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the
lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108.
The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected
to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast.
Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high
pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf.
The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy
conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday
into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will
hold temps back a degree or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 94 74 95 76 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 92 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0
LFT 92 76 94 77 / 10 10 10 0
BPT 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
K. Kuyper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure over
Florida peninsula to northeast and central Gulf of Mexico.
Southwest flow was present across the south half of Louisiana and
Southern Mississippi this afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings
were generally in the mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Warm temperatures along with these dewpoint readings have pushed
heat index values up to 105 area wide...up to 108 heat index value
in the River Parishes this afternoon.
Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Alabama to
north central Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to the Dakotas. In
addition, vigorous wave was noted in the northern stream over
Northern Minnesota. Precipitable water field showed pooling along
the wave axis from central Georgia to Southeast Louisiana coastal
waters with 2 to 2.2 inches...1.8 to 1.6 inches over the forecast
area to southwest Louisiana. 18
&&
.discussion...
Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through
Thursday maintaining a weakness across the northeast Gulf through
Friday. This will allow the deep moisture to shift east as well
and rain chances will decrease to below norms through Friday.
Short wave in the northern stream will dive southeast and allow
the ridge to amplify over the Plains and Missouri Valley Thursday
and Friday. Low level moisture will remain intact as increased
heights will support afternoon highs in the mid 90s Thursday and
Friday. Short range models and model blends continue to push
dewpoints down to the lower 70s for both days...resulting in heat
index values approaching 105. If dewpoint readings remain in the
upper 70s tonight, a Heat Advisory will likely be issued for
part of the forecast area Thursday through Friday.
As the short wave in the northern stream moves off the East
Coast...the ridge axis will become west/east and likely develop
into a large anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains.
The associated axis of the short wave will push across the
forecast area around the large upper high Saturday creating an
increase in rain chances for the area Friday night and Saturday.
Some of these storms could by strong with movement from northeast
to southwest and contain strong gusty winds. With the broad anti-
cyclonic circulation expanding east...rain chances will decrease
especially across the north half zones next week but will maintain
higher rain chances south half zones.
&&
.AVIATION...
Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions and anticipate VFR
conditions for the remainder of the forecast period after 15z.
Threat of convection remains this afternoon through this evening.
A few patches of fog with restriction down 3 miles at times at
KMCB and KHUM Thursday morning around 11z but should be short in
duration.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week
until Saturday when winds shift to the east through Monday.
Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most
of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over
the eastern waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to
develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the
nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi
Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2
foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds
should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the
coast take hold. Convection should be less widespread through
Friday than what has occurred the last few days. Surface high will build
over the Carolinas to the Mid South creating the moderate east
flow over the north gulf late Saturday through Monday. Seas are
expected to build up to 6 well offshore Saturday night and Sunday.
18
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 95 75 97 / 10 20 10 10
BTR 74 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 77 94 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
MSY 78 93 78 95 / 20 20 10 10
GPT 78 93 78 95 / 20 30 20 20
PQL 77 92 77 95 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2
pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70
dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating.
Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire
four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values
near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E
Tx. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the Tx Hill
Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu.
As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which
should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow
dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index
values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu
aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to
upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added
another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying
it out until 7 pm Fri Evng.
There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level
ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region
of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great
Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The
proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc
front to move into our region late Friday Night from the
northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional
warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat
Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we
should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat
Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our
region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance
pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak
backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps
sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our
Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps.
For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once
again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners
region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and
east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually
no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by
mid week next week.
Prelims to follow...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1241 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR conditions across all terminal sites this afternoon with
gusty winds near the deep east Texas terminals. Terminals east of
KLFK will see winds between 5 to 10 kts but higher gusts are possible
with the dissipation of clouds from east to west. We introduced
patchy fog and low clouds around 16/10Z. The fog will lift around
16/15Z on Thursday across all terminal sites. /21/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 72 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
21/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR conditions across all terminal sites this afternoon with
gusty winds near the deep east Texas terminals. Terminals east of
KLFK will see winds between 5 to 10 kts but higher gusts are possible
with the dissipation of clouds from east to west. We introduced
patchy fog and low clouds around 16/10Z. The fog will lift around
16/15Z on Thursday across all terminal sites. /21/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 954 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
UPDATE...
After taking a look at current temps running a degree or two ahead
of temperatures this time on Tuesday...not to mention dewpoints in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees as of 15z this morning across our
southern zones...decided to add our remaining counties and
parishes in Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana to our current
Heat Advisory which is in effect until 00z Fri.
Large cu field across the region this morning will dissipate some
this afternoon...allowing ambient temperatures to reach expected
forecast max temps later in the day. Slight chance pops for the
remainder of the morning were removed as cu field looks pretty
flat on vis imagery this morning across our extreme northern
zones. Latest 12z guidance suggests that any precip should stay to
our north and east and while we cannot rule out a very isolated
shower or storm...it is not worth the merit in the grid package
for the remainder of the day.
Other changes included a slight adjustment to RH/Dewpt grids to
mimic current and expected changes with the expansion of the Heat
Advisory.
Update already sent...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 0
DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1214 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period,
however haze or thin BR may lower vis to around 6sm at sunrise.
Also, a brief period of mvfr ceilings may occur Thursday morning
as the cu field develops. Winds will be South to SW through the
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 958 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
UPDATE...
Upper level ridge has become established with afternoon
temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat
index values from 104 to 108 degrees. This will continue
through the afternoon hours. Temps xcpd the fall below 90
drg the eve hrs. Next few days will just be a repeat of
tdy. Nxt chc for shwrs looks to be ovr the wknd.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF Issuance.
AVIATION...
Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the
region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to
some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect
clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise,
with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High
pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW
sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts
to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to
prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no
nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air
sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place
with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET
data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches.
The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid
levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H
and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and
Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude
any nocturnal development.
Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across
the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of
significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over
the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for
mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity.
Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and
Friday as the ridge aloft builds in.
Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and
thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the
lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very
muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep
values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category.
The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the
weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface
"cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and
linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced
again on Saturday and increased into Sunday.
Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now
centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to
the east.
Rua
MARINE...
A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional
moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface
cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming
easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 10
LCH 78 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 0 10
BPT 77 93 76 93 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
958 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Upper level ridge has become established with afternoon
temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat
index values from 104 to 108 degrees. This will continue
through the afternoon hours. Temps xcpd the fall below 90
drg the eve hrs. Next few days will just be a repeat of
tdy. Nxt chc for shwrs looks to be ovr the wknd.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF Issuance.
AVIATION...
Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the
region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to
some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect
clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise,
with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High
pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW
sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts
to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to
prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset.
24
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no
nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air
sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place
with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET
data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches.
The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid
levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H
and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and
Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude
any nocturnal development.
Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across
the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of
significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over
the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for
mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity.
Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and
Friday as the ridge aloft builds in.
Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and
thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the
lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very
muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep
values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category.
The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the
weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface
"cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and
linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced
again on Saturday and increased into Sunday.
Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now
centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to
the east.
Rua
MARINE...
A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional
moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface
cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming
easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0
LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0
BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
954 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
After taking a look at current temps running a degree or two ahead
of temperatures this time on Tuesday...not to mention dewpoints in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees as of 15z this morning across our
southern zones...decided to add our remaining counties and
parishes in Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana to our current
Heat Advisory which is in effect until 00z Fri.
Large cu field across the region this morning will dissipate some
this afternoon...allowing ambient temperatures to reach expected
forecast max temps later in the day. Slight chance pops for the
remainder of the morning were removed as cu field looks pretty
flat on vis imagery this morning across our extreme northern
zones. Latest 12z guidance suggests that any precip should stay to
our north and east and while we cannot rule out a very isolated
shower or storm...it is not worth the merit in the grid package
for the remainder of the day.
Other changes included a slight adjustment to RH/Dewpt grids to
mimic current and expected changes with the expansion of the Heat
Advisory.
Update already sent...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 752 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex...SCTVBKN IFR/MVFR with some SCT cirrus this
morning for another couple of hours before scattering fully. Our
sfc winds will be S/SW 5-10KTS and SW flow of 10-25KTS extends up
to 10kft before veering to W/NW 15-35KTS. Little change in store
with upper ridge building over E TX and sinking air spreading in
over much of the area. Decreasing moisture through evaporation
will further lessen daybreak issues in the day to come. Outlook
for change with more precip is a fropa this weekend. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
24/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
825 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning has still come in with PW well above
average at 2.15 inches and ample instability with mixed layer
CAPE at 2100 J/KG. Still expect some storms to fire today along
local boundaries and especially to the east. Indications of
subsidence from the building ridge are beginning to show up a bit
with a broad low level warm layer to 750 mb. Winds are westerly
from the sfc to 700 mb then become northerly aloft from the
downstream side of the upper level ridge axis.
Krautmann
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Should see a fairly tight columnal moisture gradient develop today
from west to east. The Pearl River should be the line where sh/ts
will be capable of developing in the deeper moisture to the east.
Dry air through most of the column will keep most activity down
for areas west of the Pearl River. Although a few strongest
buoyant areas capable of breaking the two inversion caps will be
possible which is the reason for the 20% over the western majority
of the area. The caps strengthen as one moves westward. This
should continue to be the case for the most part through Friday.
The problem with this will be heat. Temps will rise appreciably
into the mid 90s. This will couple with the unventilated boundary
layer`s moisture left over from the previous rainfall to cause
heat indices to soar into the 100s. The word stifling comes to
mind.
LONG TERM...
The back door cold front will be moving rapidly toward the area by
Frinight into Saturday. The front should move through the area
Saturday shifting winds from westerly to easterly at about 10-15
mph and dropping dp temps down from the mid 70s to the mid 60s.
This may not sound like much but it will be felt. And it will be a
nice change from the extremely moist hot temps we will be
experiencing. The strong forcing associated with moving the front
through the area will move through the FL panhandle and into the
gulf first. Then the same forcing begins to move west and focuses
more toward this area. The front looks to be almost through the
area by the time the strongest forcing transitions to our area.
This would mean that severe weather would be confined to the gulf
coastal waters instead of over land areas. But it is way too soon
to show that scenario and will keep current thinking of the
possibility of severe thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday
evening moving from east to west. This event will be further
refined as time nears. This synoptic pattern should also keep any
tropical activity in the gulf away from this area for now.
AVIATION...
Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions. Threat of low ceilings
and/or visibilities is somewhat lower this morning. May see a few
spots of MVFR ceilings for a time around sunrise, but the only
terminal that may see IFR conditions would be MCB. Even there,
threat is not high enough to carry as a prevailing condition. Any
terminals experiencing MVFR or IFR conditions this morning should
see improvement to VFR by 15z. Anticipate VFR conditions for the
remainder of the forecast period after 15z. Threat of convection is
lower today than it has been for several days. At present, do not
anticipate carrying mention of thunder in any of the terminals
today. Most likely location for convection would be along the
Mississippi coast at GPT. May consider a VCTS at GPT for a few hours
in the afternoon for the 12z TAF package, but that would likely be
the only terminal. 35
MARINE...
Should see primarily southwesterly flow across the coastal waters
for much of the week until Saturday when winds shift to northwest
briefly before becoming onshore again on Sunday. Prevailing
conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3-
4 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern
waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly
to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf
Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This
could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of
the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after
sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection
should be less widespread through Friday than what has occurred the
last few days. Best timing for convection will be daybreak through
the mid-morning hours before dissipating. Any storms could produce
localized gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 92 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 92 74 93 76 / 20 20 30 20
MSY 90 77 92 78 / 20 20 30 10
GPT 90 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20
PQL 90 74 92 75 / 40 20 30 30
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
752 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex...SCTVBKN IFR/MVFR with some SCT cirrus this
morning for another couple of hours before scattering fully. Our
sfc winds will be S/SW 5-10KTS and SW flow of 10-25KTS extends up
to 10kft before veering to W/NW 15-35KTS. Little change in store
with upper ridge building over E TX and sinking air spreading in
over much of the area. Decreasing moisture through evaporation
will further lessen daybreak issues in the day to come. Outlook
for change with more precip is a fropa this weekend. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days,
courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to
portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS.
However, an isolated thunderstorm has developed in south central
OK and the NAM solution exhibits additional development that could
move across the extreme Northern zones later this morning, in
association with a mid-level theta-e axis. If this precip does
indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the
afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose
into the Four-State region. Model solutions hint at further
amplification extending to near the Great Lakes Region by late
this week. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result
in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently
declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming
trend throughout the remainder of this week. The trend will be
gradual as recent heavy rainfall for some locales still needs to
overcome the moist grounds/soils, but MOS guidance high temps of
middle to upper 90s by weeks end is certainly plausible, given no
additional substantial rainfall is expected in the near term. Warm
days followed by warm nights /70s/ will raise the heat index
to/slightly above 105 F for most of the CWA today through
tomorrow. As such, the Heat Advisory will continue and will be
valid from noon today through 7 pm CDT tomorrow for Southeast OK,
Southwest AR, much of Northeast TX and portions of North LA along
and North of the Interstate 20 corridor. With similar heat indices
on Friday, we may need to reevaluate and perhaps an extension of
the advisory may be needed. Furthermore, Natchitoches may have had
a heat index of 109 F yesterday, but that site is known to run a
little bit warm hence why the Heat Advisory does not include
Natchitoches Parish. Nonetheless, we will remain vigilant and see
how trends go today at the aforementioned location.
By late week/early the weekend the center of the UA ridge will have
retrograded to the Desert SW and a general weakness along the
Eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with a cold frontal passage
still progged to arrive on Saturday, may result in slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances may still linger across
the Southern zones on Sunday thanks to a waning UA low retrograding
to near the region. Thereafter, model solutions differ a bit wrt to
the evolution of the UA ridge as it is shown to either retrograde
farther to the Southwest CONUS by Wednesday of next week, thus
allowing UA disturbances to impinge on the region, or the ridge will
expand back East to the region, which will keep the area dry. This
forecast package will reflect a dry forecast beyond the weekend
until later model solutions show better consistency.
The above normal warmth for this week will cool slightly into the
lower 90s by next week, whilst a drier airmass invades the region
which will allow for lowered heat indices.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
24/29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the
region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to
some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect
clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise,
with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High
pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW
sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts
to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to
prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no
nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air
sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place
with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET
data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches.
The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid
levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H
and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and
Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude
any nocturnal development.
Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across
the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of
significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over
the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for
mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity.
Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and
Friday as the ridge aloft builds in.
Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and
thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the
lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very
muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep
values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category.
The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the
weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface
"cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and
linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced
again on Saturday and increased into Sunday.
Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now
centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to
the east.
Rua
MARINE...
A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional
moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface
cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming
easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0
LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0
BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the
region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to
some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect
clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise,
with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High
pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW
sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts
to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to
prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no
nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air
sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place
with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET
data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches.
The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid
levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H
and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and
Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude
any nocturnal development.
Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across
the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of
significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over
the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for
mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity.
Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and
Friday as the ridge aloft builds in.
Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and
thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the
lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very
muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep
values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category.
The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the
weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface
"cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and
linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced
again on Saturday and increased into Sunday.
Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now
centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to
the east.
Rua
MARINE...
A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional
moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface
cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming
easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0
LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0
BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
350 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
Should see a fairly tight columnal moisture gradient develop today
from west to east. The Pearl River should be the line where sh/ts
will be capable of developing in the deeper moisture to the east.
Dry air through most of the column will keep most activity down
for areas west of the Pearl River. Although a few strongest
buoyant areas capable of breaking the two inversion caps will be
possible which is the reason for the 20% over the western majority
of the area. The caps strengthen as one moves westward. This
should continue to be the case for the most part through Friday.
The problem with this will be heat. Temps will rise appreciably
into the mid 90s. This will couple with the unventilated boundary
layer`s moisture left over from the previous rainfall to cause
heat indices to soar into the 100s. The word stifling comes to
mind.
.LONG TERM...
The back door cold front will be moving rapidly toward the area by
Frinight into Saturday. The front should move through the area
Saturday shifting winds from westerly to easterly at about 10-15
mph and dropping dp temps down from the mid 70s to the mid 60s.
This may not sound like much but it will be felt. And it will be a
nice change from the extremely moist hot temps we will be
experiencing. The strong forcing associated with moving the front
through the area will move through the FL panhandle and into the
gulf first. Then the same forcing begins to move west and focuses
more toward this area. The front looks to be almost through the
area by the time the strongest forcing transitions to our area.
This would mean that severe weather would be confined to the gulf
coastal waters instead of over land areas. But it is way too soon
to show that scenario and will keep current thinking of the
possibility of severe thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday
evening moving from east to west. This event will be further
refined as time nears. This synoptic pattern should also keep any
tropical activity in the gulf away from this area for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions. Threat of low ceilings
and/or visibilities is somewhat lower this morning. May see a few
spots of MVFR ceilings for a time around sunrise, but the only
terminal that may see IFR conditions would be MCB. Even there,
threat is not high enough to carry as a prevailing condition. Any
terminals experiencing MVFR or IFR conditions this morning should
see improvement to VFR by 15z. Anticipate VFR conditions for the
remainder of the forecast period after 15z. Threat of convection is
lower today than it has been for several days. At present, do not
anticipate carrying mention of thunder in any of the terminals
today. Most likely location for convection would be along the
Mississippi coast at GPT. May consider a VCTS at GPT for a few hours
in the afternoon for the 12z TAF package, but that would likely be
the only terminal. 35
&&
.MARINE...
Should see primarily southwesterly flow across the coastal waters
for much of the week until Saturday when winds shift to northwest
briefly before becoming onshore again on Sunday. Prevailing
conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3-
4 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern
waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly
to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf
Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This
could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of
the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after
sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection
should be less widespread through Friday than what has occurred the
last few days. Best timing for convection will be daybreak through
the mid-morning hours before dissipating. Any storms could produce
localized gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 92 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 92 74 93 76 / 20 20 30 20
MSY 90 77 92 78 / 20 20 30 10
GPT 90 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20
PQL 90 74 92 75 / 40 20 30 30
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days,
courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to
portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS.
However, an isolated thunderstorm has developed in south central
OK and the NAM solution exhibits additional development that could
move across the extreme Northern zones later this morning, in
association with a mid-level theta-e axis. If this precip does
indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the
afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose
into the Four-State region. Model solutions hint at further
amplification extending to near the Great Lakes Region by late
this week. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result
in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently
declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming
trend throughout the remainder of this week. The trend will be
gradual as recent heavy rainfall for some locales still needs to
overcome the moist grounds/soils, but MOS guidance high temps of
middle to upper 90s by weeks end is certainly plausible, given no
additional substantial rainfall is expected in the near term. Warm
days followed by warm nights /70s/ will raise the heat index
to/slightly above 105 F for most of the CWA today through
tomorrow. As such, the Heat Advisory will continue and will be
valid from noon today through 7 pm CDT tomorrow for Southeast OK,
Southwest AR, much of Northeast TX and portions of North LA along
and North of the Interstate 20 corridor. With similar heat indices
on Friday, we may need to reevaluate and perhaps an extension of
the advisory may be needed. Furthermore, Natchitoches may have had
a heat index of 109 F yesterday, but that site is known to run a
little bit warm hence why the Heat Advisory does not include
Natchitoches Parish. Nonetheless, we will remain vigilant and see
how trends go today at the aforementioned location.
By late week/early the weekend the center of the UA ridge will have
retrograded to the Desert SW and a general weakness along the
Eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with a cold frontal passage
still progged to arrive on Saturday, may result in slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances may still linger across
the Southern zones on Sunday thanks to a waning UA low retrograding
to near the region. Thereafter, model solutions differ a bit wrt to
the evolution of the UA ridge as it is shown to either retrograde
farther to the Southwest CONUS by Wednesday of next week, thus
allowing UA disturbances to impinge on the region, or the ridge will
expand back East to the region, which will keep the area dry. This
forecast package will reflect a dry forecast beyond the weekend
until later model solutions show better consistency.
The above normal warmth for this week will cool slightly into the
lower 90s by next week, whilst a drier airmass invades the region
which will allow for lowered heat indices.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days,
courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to
portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS.
However, an isolated thunderstorm has developed in south central
OK and the NAM solution exhibits additional development that could
move across the extreme Northern zones later this morning, in
association with a mid-level theta-e axis. If this precip does
indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the
afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose
into the Four-State region. Model solutions hint at further
amplification extending to near the Great Lakes Region by late
this week. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result
in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently
declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming
trend throughout the remainder of this week. The trend will be
gradual as recent heavy rainfall for some locales still needs to
overcome the moist grounds/soils, but MOS guidance high temps of
middle to upper 90s by weeks end is certainly plausible, given no
additional substantial rainfall is expected in the near term. Warm
days followed by warm nights /70s/ will raise the heat index
to/slightly above 105 F for most of the CWA today through
tomorrow. As such, the Heat Advisory will continue and will be
valid from noon today through 7 pm CDT tomorrow for Southeast OK,
Southwest AR, much of Northeast TX and portions of North LA along
and North of the Interstate 20 corridor. With similar heat indices
on Friday, we may need to reevaluate and perhaps an extension of
the advisory may be needed. Furthermore, Natchitoches may have had
a heat index of 109 F yesterday, but that site is known to run a
little bit warm hence why the Heat Advisory does not include
Natchitoches Parish. Nonetheless, we will remain vigilant and see
how trends go today at the aforementioned location.
By late week/early the weekend the center of the UA ridge will have
retrograded to the Desert SW and a general weakness along the
Eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with a cold frontal passage
still progged to arrive on Saturday, may result in slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances may still linger across
the Southern zones on Sunday thanks to a waning UA low retrograding
to near the region. Thereafter, model solutions differ a bit wrt to
the evolution of the UA ridge as it is shown to either retrograde
farther to the Southwest CONUS by Wednesday of next week, thus
allowing UA disturbances to impinge on the region, or the ridge will
expand back East to the region, which will keep the area dry. This
forecast package will reflect a dry forecast beyond the weekend
until later model solutions show better consistency.
The above normal warmth for this week will cool slightly into the
lower 90s by next week, whilst a drier airmass invades the region
which will allow for lowered heat indices.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no
nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air
sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place
with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET
data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches.
The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid
levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H
and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and
Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude
any nocturnal development.
Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across
the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of
significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over
the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for
mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity.
Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and
Friday as the ridge aloft builds in.
Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and
thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the
lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very
muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep
values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category.
The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the
weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface
"cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and
linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced
again on Saturday and increased into Sunday.
Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now
centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to
the east.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional
moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface
cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming
easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0
LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0
BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail into the overnight hours across the
ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early
morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning.
Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts overnight will give way to winds
8-12 kts after sunrise. Wind speeds will diminish once again
after sunset Wednesday. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed
/06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail into the overnight hours across the
ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early
morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning.
Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts overnight will give way to winds
8-12 kts after sunrise. Wind speeds will diminish once again
after sunset Wednesday. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed
/06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1131 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east
of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on target. Updated PFM sent to adjust hourly T to
better fit observations. NO other changes to the grids at this
time.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east
of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some.
Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2
pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days.
Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day
difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our
area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity
was moving east.
Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper
levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will
be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only
isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop
will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing
daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time
to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have
adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs
will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will
sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected.
Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable
temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the
west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday.
Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday
with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly
typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower
levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over
the southeastern United States with that familiar east to
southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more
easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the
middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the
temperatures down...but rain chances will climb.
MARINE...
Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend
as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of
Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the
coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow
strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher
winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
950 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast on target. Updated PFM sent to adjust hourly T to
better fit observations. NO other changes to the grids at this
time.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east
of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some.
Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2
pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days.
Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day
difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our
area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity
was moving east.
Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper
levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will
be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only
isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop
will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing
daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time
to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have
adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs
will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will
sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected.
Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable
temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the
west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday.
Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday
with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly
typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower
levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over
the southeastern United States with that familiar east to
southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more
easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the
middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the
temperatures down...but rain chances will climb.
MARINE...
Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend
as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of
Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the
coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow
strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher
winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed
/06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the evening and into the
overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will
scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts are
expected overnight, increasing to 8-12 kts after sunrise. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
06/12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed
/06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the evening and into the
overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will
scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts are
expected overnight, increasing to 8-12 kts after sunrise. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
06/12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the evening and into the
overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will
scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts are
expected overnight, increasing to 8-12 kts after sunrise. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
As expected...the remnants of the convection over Scntrl AR/Ern
sections of north central LA has exited the region into Srn MS
and SE LA...as the persistent trough axis that has lingered over
our region has finally shifted E of the MS River. Meanwhile...the
sct convection over SE OK has also diminished as they crossed into
SW AR...having moved away from the weak mid level theta-e axis.
Thus...a quiet night is expected over the region...as the upper
ridge centered over Cntrl TX this afternoon will begin to expand
NE into the area tonight. The tropical air mass in
place...characteristic of the unseasonably high mid and upper 70s
dewpoints which persists areawide...will be slow to modify/mix
out over the next couple of days. Coupled with the rainfall much
of the region has received the last few days...evapotranspiration
should remain high and inhibit dry air mixing which will only to
add to the stress conditions as temps climb to the hottest
readings so far this year.
After coordination with adjacent WFO/s...have issued a Heat
Advisory in effect from 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday as heat
indices should reach/exceed 105 degree each day over much of the
advisory area. Dewpoints may mix out a little more Thursday...but
temps should climb into the mid and possibly upper 9os as the
center of the H850-700 ridge becomes centered over E TX/Wrn LA.
The advisory may have to be expanded to encompass the remainder of
the region Wednesday /for Thursday and Friday/ once these hotter
temps/heat stress conditions are reached.
The medium range progs continue to suggest that the upper ridge
will expand farther N into the Plains/Midwest Friday...and
eventually into the OH Valley and Ern Seaboard this weekend. A
weakness associated with a longwave trough that will slide S along
the E Coast back W across the MS Valley this weekend will help
nudge a sfc trough SSW into the area Saturday...as it slowly
back-doors SSW into the area. Compressional warming along/ahead
of the trough should result in the potential for Heat Advisory
criteria even into Saturday...tapping into what available moisture
is in place for isolated convection over much of the area. Have
taken out pops Friday night for SW AR/Ncntrl LA as the sfc trough
will remain off to our NE...but kept slight chance pops going
Saturday areawide and for the Srn zones Saturday night to
accommodate any residual convection. The ECMWF suggests the sfc
trough stalling over E TX/Ncntrl LA Saturday night/Sunday...which
may focus isolated convection along/S of the bndry into Sunday.
Should see some drier air begin to backdoor into portions of the
area late in the weekend...tapering max temps back a few degrees
while also lowering RH/s. However...the H500 ridge looks to
intensify to near 600 dam over the Srn Rockies by Monday...while
amplifying farther E and W across much of the CONUS through much
of next week. Thus...the heat and dry conditions look to persist
throughout the remainder of the extended.
Thank you WFO/s FWD/LZK/JAN for coordination this afternoon.
Prelims to follow below...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east
of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some.
Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2
pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days.
Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day
difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our
area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity
was moving east.
Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper
levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will
be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only
isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop
will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing
daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time
to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have
adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs
will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will
sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected.
Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable
temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the
west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday.
Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday
with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly
typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower
levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over
the southeastern United States with that familiar east to
southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more
easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the
middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the
temperatures down...but rain chances will climb.
MARINE...
Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend
as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of
Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the
coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow
strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher
winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
412 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
As expected...the remnants of the convection over Scntrl AR/Ern
sections of Northcntrl LA has exited the region into Srn MS and SE
LA...as the persistent trough axis that has lingered over our
region has finally shifted E of the MS River. Meanwhile...the sct
convection over SE OK has also diminished as they crossed into SW
AR...having moved away from the weak mid level theta-e axis.
Thus...a quiet night is expected over the region...as the upper
ridge centered over Cntrl TX this afternoon will begin to expand
NE into the area tonight. The tropical air mass in place...characteristic
of the unseasonably high mid and upper 70s dewpoints which
perists areawide...will be slow to modify/mix out over the next
couple of days. Coupled with the rainfall much of the region has
received the last few days...evapotranspiration should remain high
and inhibit dry air mixing which will only to add to the stress
conditions as temps climb to the hottest readings so far this
year.
After coordination with adjacent WFO/s...have issued a Heat
Advisory in effect from 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday as heat
indices should reach/exceed 105 degree each day over much of the
advisory area. Dewpoints may mix out a little more Thursday...but
temps should climb into the mid and possibly upper 9os as the
center of the H850-700 ridge becomes centered over E TX/Wrn LA.
The advisory may have to be expanded to encompass the remainder of
the region Wednesday /for Thursday and Friday/ once these hotter
temps/heat stress conditions are reached.
The medium range progs continue to suggest that the upper ridge
will expand farther N into the Plains/Midwest Friday...and
eventually into the OH Valley and Ern Seaboard this weekend. A
weakness associated with a longwave trough that will slide S along
the E Coast back W across the MS Valley this weekend will help
nudge a sfc trough SSW into the area Saturday...as it slowly
backdoors SSW into the area. Compressional warming along/ahead of
the trough should result in the potential for Heat Advisory
criteria even into Saturday...tapping into what available moisture
is in place for isolated convection over much of the area. Have
taken out pops Friday night for SW AR/Ncntrl LA as the sfc trough
will remain off to our NE...but kept slight chance pops going
Saturday areawide and for the Srn zones Saturday night to
accommodate any residual convection. The ECMWF suggests the sfc
trough stalling over E TX/Ncntrl LA Saturday night/Sunday...which
may focus isolated convection along/S of the bndry into Sunday.
Should see some drier air begin to backdoor into portions of the
area late in the weekend...tapering max temps back a few degrees
while also lowering RH/s. However...the H500 ridge looks to
intensify to near 600 dam over the Srn Rockies by Monday...while
amplifying farther E and W across much of the CONUS through much
of next week. Thus...the heat and dry conditions look to persist
throughout the remainder of the extended.
Thank you WFO/s FWD/LZK/JAN for coordination this afternoon.
Prelims to follow below...
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
AVIATION...
For the 15/18Z TAFs VFR/IRF conditions across all terminal sites
this afternoon with high clouds moving from eastern Texas to
central Louisiana over the next several hours. Expect Southerly
winds of 5 to 10 kts at the surface. Fog is expected during the
overnight hours forming around 15/03Z across most terminal sites
with light southerly winds. The fog will begin to dissipate after
day break and CIGS will lift through the late morning hours. /21/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
&&
$$
15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed ridge of high pressure over Florida
peninsula to central Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow was present
across the south half of Louisiana and Southern Mississippi this
afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings were generally 70s from the
Gulf Coast to Iowa. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave
over Alabama and Mississippi. Because the wave is not very
sharp...Precipitable water field showed pooling along front and
back of the axis from south Arkansas to north central Gulf of
Mexico with values around 2 inches. 18
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through
wednesday maintaining a threat of rain over the forecast
area...higher chances across the east half on Wednesday. Surface
high will remain over the Florida Peninsula to central Gulf of
Mexica. In the meantime...the main upper level ridge will amplify
over the Plains going into Thursday and Friday. A short wave in
the northern stream will dive southeast over the Great Lakes
region and Ohio Valley as the ridge axis builds from West Texas to
Hudson Bay. As the short wave moves off the East Coast...the ridge
axis will become west/east and likely develop into a large
anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains. The
associated axis of the short wave will push across the forecast
area around the large upper high Saturday creating an increase in
rain chances for the area. Some of these storms could by strong
with movement from northeast to southwest and contain strong gusty
winds on Saturday. With the broad anti-cyclonic circulation
expanding east...rain chances will decrease especially across the
north half zones next week.
With the ridge over the plains...heights will increase but no real
changes to low level moisture through the weekend. Afternoon
temps are forecast to approach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday and
possibly Saturday. As a result... afternoon heat index values may
top off around 105 degrees Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Lingering convection through the first part of this evening could
result in a brief drop to MVFR or IFR conditions if any storms move
over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail with
the possible exception of some patchy fog or low stratus near
daybreak. 95/DM
&&
.MARINE...
Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the
week. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for
most of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots
over the eastern waters by about Thursday night or Friday as a low
level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of
the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters,
Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night.
This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen
most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease
after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold.
Convection will be possible through the period with convection
most likely around daybreak through the mid-morning hours before
dissipating. Any storms could produce localized gusty winds and
possibly a few waterspouts.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 73 93 74 / 70 20 20 10
BTR 89 74 92 75 / 70 20 20 10
ASD 91 74 92 74 / 70 20 20 20
MSY 89 78 90 77 / 70 20 20 20
GPT 89 75 90 75 / 70 30 50 20
PQL 89 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 20
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed ridge of high pressure over Florida
peninsula to central Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow was present
across the south half of Louisiana and Southern Mississippi this
afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings were generally 70s from the
Gulf Coast to Iowa. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave
over Alabama and Mississippi. Because the wave is not very
sharp...Precipitable water field showed pooling along front and
back of the axis from south Arkansas to north central Gulf of
Mexico with values around 2 inches. 18
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through
wednesday maintaining a threat of rain over the forecast
area...higher chances across the east half on Wednesday. Surface
high will remain over the Florida Peninsula to central Gulf of
Mexica. In the meantime...the main upper level ridge will amplify
over the Plains going into Thursday and Friday. A short wave in
the northern stream will dive southeast over the Great Lakes
region and Ohio Valley as the ridge axis builds from West Texas to
Hudson Bay. As the short wave moves off the East Coast...the ridge
axis will become west/east and likely develop into a large
anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains. The
associated axis of the short wave will push across the forecast
area around the large upper high Saturday creating an increase in
rain chances for the area. Some of these storms could by strong
with movement from northeast to southwest and contain strong gusty
winds on Saturday. With the broad anti-cyclonic circulation
expanding east...rain chances will decrease especially across the
north half zones next week.
With the ridge over the plains...heights will increase but no real
changes to low level moisture through the weekend. Afternoon
temps are forecast to approach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday and
possibly Saturday. As a result... afternoon heat index values may
top off around 105 degrees Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Lingering convection through the first part of this evening could
result in a brief drop to MVFR or IFR conditions if any storms move
over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail with
the possible exception of some patchy fog or low stratus near
daybreak. 95/DM
&&
.MARINE...
Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the
week. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for
most of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots
over the eastern waters by about Thursday night or Friday as a low
level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of
the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters,
Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night.
This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen
most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease
after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold.
Convection will be possible through the period with convection
most likely around daybreak through the mid-morning hours before
dissipating. Any storms could produce localized gusty winds and
possibly a few waterspouts.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 73 93 74 / 70 20 20 10
BTR 89 74 92 75 / 70 20 20 10
ASD 91 74 92 74 / 70 20 20 20
MSY 89 78 90 77 / 70 20 20 20
GPT 89 75 90 75 / 70 30 50 20
PQL 89 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 20
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some.
Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2
pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days.
Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day
difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our
area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity
was moving east.
Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper
levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will
be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only
isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop
will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing
daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time
to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have
adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs
will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will
sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected.
Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable
temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the
west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday.
Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday
with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly
typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower
levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over
the southeastern United States with that familiar east to
southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more
easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the
middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the
temperatures down...but rain chances will climb.
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend
as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of
Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the
coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow
strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher
winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...06
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.AVIATION...
A few storms noted on radar this aftn down alng the cst of s cntrl
La and n of the I-10 corridor in se Tx and sw La... this is a
large reduction fm the last few days. It looks like ridging aloft
seems to be taking hold of storm dvlpmnt and shutting it down.
Best potential for storm dvlpmnt tdy will be ovr s-cntrl La into
the early eve hours.
Radar is indicating a MCS movg into e-cntrl La attm. This sys
looks to skirt to the e of AEX...LFT and ARA... although storms
lftg out of the Vermilion Bay will have the potential of movg acrs
ARA and LFT into the late aftn hrs. Otherwise acrs se Tx and sw
La... looks to see sctd shwrs or tstms mainly north of the I-10
corridor w/ cld bases fm 020 to 040.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
For the 14/12z TAF issuance.
AVIATION...
Just a few small nocturnal showers have developed in the
overnight and near mainly KARA, and not having much impact. Some
low stratus has developed at KAEX with IFR conditions, and this
will likely continue through about 14/14z. Otherwise, mainly VFR
at other sites. Still plenty of moisture hanging around, along
with a weakness aloft. Therefore, scattered showers and
thunderstorms again possible with daytime heating, and will
mention VCTS at all TAF sites through 15/02z.
Rua
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Short Term...Today through Wednesday.
Main forecast issue in near term will be POPs. Increasing
thunderstorm activity was observed across southern Arkansas and
northern Louisiana. Short range models including HRRR hinting at a
thunderstorm complex overnight over this area with MCS moving SE
into Mississippi. As has been the case in previous
forecast...highest rain chances will be over eastern parts of
forecast area. Broad upper level ridge will shift over the area
tonight and Tuesday. At this time...anticipate less thunderstorm
coverage areawide so now will keep POPs near 20 percent.
Long Term...Wednesday night through Monday
Upper ridge should continue over the forecast area the middle of the
week before slowing shifting west. POPs will remain minimal through
the end of the week...but will increase slightly this weekend as
eastern U.S. upper trough works into region. Will maintain diurnal
chance POPs from the weekend through early next week.
Maximum temperatures will trend above normal late in the week
before returning to near normal early next week. Will need to
monitor heat indices...especially across central Louisiana...
Friday and Saturday. These readings remain forecasted in the
105-107 range during that time.
MARINE...
High pressure over the Central gulf will continue to expand
through the rest of the week. Weak to occasionally moderate
onshore flow is expected. Outside of thunderstorm activity...no
marine hazards are anticipated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
LCH 78 91 77 92 / 10 20 10 10
LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 20 10 20
BPT 78 92 77 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
K. Kuyper
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
353 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm potential very late this afternoon through tonight is
the focus of this forecast release.
As of 08 UTC, storms are ongoing from northeast MT into northwest
ND on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet centered near 850 MB, per
overnight model guidance, including recent RAP runs. The elevated
convection is occurring on the edge of a northeastward-advancing
elevated mixed layer containing steep mid-level lapse rates. Thus
far the storms in northwest ND have been sub-severe, but there is
still a chance of a marginally-severe storm through early morning
as MUCAPE continues to increase and exceeds 1000 J/kg as far east
as Minot by 12 UTC. However, forecast soundings still suggest the
mid-level cap may limit activity further east, a notion supported
by recent experimental (ESRL-run) HRRR simulations.
The better part of today will be warm with increasing humidity in
most areas as a surface low in eastern MT this morning lifts north
into Canada and a trailing surface trough/weak cold front moves to
the east, reaching central ND by 00 UTC. Southerly flow in advance
of that wind shift/frontal zone is expected to tap into the pool
of higher dewpoints in central and eastern NEB early this morning.
The consensus of 00 UTC model guidance, including a bias-corrected
flavor of that output that we run in-house, supports surface dew-
points in the mid to upper 60s F over central ND by 00 UTC. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500
J/kg from mid afternoon into the evening. Convective initiation is
likely to hold off until very late afternoon at the earliest with
significant mid-level capping at the base of the elevated mixed
layer seen on model-forecast soundings, and neutral or even slight
positive tendencies in the 500 MB height fields before 00 UTC. We
thus held off on introducing low-end thunderstorm chances until 22
UTC, and even then only aligned them from Minot toward New Salem
along the most probable location of the surface wind shift. A few
00 UTC convection-allowing model simulations do suggest that area
could have incipient storm development by that time, though again
confidence is not that great in formation before evening. We have
increasing PoPs in the forecast post-00 UTC, especially along and
south of Interstate 94 and along and east of Highway 83, which is
when subtle mid-level height falls begin and in the area where 00
UTC guidance and more contemporary HRRR simulations suggest storm
coverage will be greatest.
We have chosen to explicitly mention the possibility of severe
thunderstorms in the gridded and text forecasts over central ND
from late this afternoon into the evening. The degree of MLCAPE
combined with moderate 0-6-km bulk wind differences (shear) from
30 to 40 kt supports organized, possibly supercellular storms with
a large hail and damaging wind threat. Applying the HAILCAST model
to the 00 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW supports peak hailstone sizes of 1.50
to 1.75 inches (ping pong to golf ball size) with the most intense
storms. Updraft helicity output from the 00 UTC SPC SSEO supports
organized storms, especially from Bismarck toward Jamestown during
the evening, but its peak values are not particularly high. That
may be a reflection of the somewhat modest deep-layer shear values
in place, and may suggest that while severe storms are probable, a
high-end or particularly intense event may not be likely. Finally,
precipitable water values in the pre-convective environment are in
the 1.40 inch range, supporting locally heavy rainfall with storms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend thanks to
a persistent southwest flow aloft on the northern side of a very
strong sub-tropical ridge centered over NM.
Taken at face value, the 00 UTC guidance (including the GFS, NAM,
and ECMWF) suggest that Friday daytime may be relatively dry with
weak height rises aloft in place across the region. However, that
set of models also all suggests that convection forming in MT may
reach western and central ND between 06 and 12 UTC Saturday when
elevated instability rapidly increases. This may pose some risk of
severe weather late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Then,
on Saturday afternoon and evening, the 00 UTC models show strong
instability with MLCAPE potentially reaching 3500 to 4000 J/kg in
parts of southwest and south central ND. The predictability of any
mid-level shortwave troughs embedded in the flow is relatively low
given their lack of amplitude, which suggests the timing and
location of convective development is uncertain. However, if the
00 UTC guidance is correct, the CAPE-shear setting may be one of
the most impressive we`ve seen thus far this year with 0-6-km bulk
wind differences exceeding 50 kt over a wide area. That could mean
a higher-end severe threat is possible, an idea supported by the
00 UTC CIPS analog guidance. Moreover, some guidance suggests that
a well-organized MCS could cross ND Saturday night. Again, there
is considerable uncertainty in any details surrounding this event,
but it will be one to watch in the coming days.
Thereafter, it appears that flow may turn more northwesterly for
a few days early next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and
a somewhat drier pattern Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Aviation concerns continue to be low level wind shear over the west
and central until about 16/13z, and the ongoing thunderstorms
over northwest into north central North Dakota until about 16/16z.
A strong low level jet coming into western / central North Dakota
from low pressure in eastern Montana will result in low level wind
shear until surface speeds increase by mid morning. On the storm
chances at KISN and KMOT, activity looks to be north of KISN and
uncertainty remains as to how far east, toward KMOT, it will
get. VFR at KDIK-KBIS-KJMS.
Storm development at KBIS and KJMS will be possible after 16/23z.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
104 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
There was little overall change with this update, but we did use a
consensus of high-resolution and statistical model guidance to
refresh hourly forecast fields through 18 UTC Thursday. If storms
in northeast MT maintain their current trajectory they will cut
across far northwest ND the next several hours. Forecast soundings
in northwest ND from the RAP and other guidance support some 1500
J/kg of MUCAPE and effective bulk wind shear over 40 KT, which is
consistent with a chance of large hail and possibly strong winds
from organized, elevated thunderstorms. The main uncertainty with
these storms is how far south they may build, especially further
east into north central ND, as mid-level capping will be on the
increase such that parcels will need to be lifted from about 700
MB to freely convect.
UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The trend so far tonight confirms the combination of a persistent
cap and a relatively weak shortwave trough is keeping the threat
of thunderstorms low this evening. The latest HRRR experimental
seems to be the best CAM model and it continues to delay the threat
of thunderstorms over the far northwest until after midnight
then spreading into the far north central by sunrise. Current
forecast has this trend and will not make changes other than to
update current conditions.
UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
While the short term convective allowing models, particularly the
HRRR, continue to show convective initiation across southeast
Montana through northwest South Dakota already by late afternoon
today, the current trends have not verified this. Will continue to
monitor the short term trends but do not see enough information to
add scattered showers/thunderstorms to the forecast this early and
that far south. Current forecast will be allowed to continue with
only current weather conditions updated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Elevated thunderstorm potential in the far northwest is the main
highlight tonight with an isolated severe potential. Late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms central Thursday is the next
concern, with these thunderstorms capable of reaching severe
criteria.
The latest water vapor imagery shows western North Dakota falling
into more of a dominate southwest/active flow, as successive
shortwaves emanating around a closed upper low from Alberta back
into the Pacific northwest.
A shortwave over western Wyoming and an associated surface low is
forecast to lift north overnight, located near Wolf Point Montana
by 12 UTC Thursday. This might possibly affect northwest ND
between 06-12 UTC with a threat for elevated strong to severe
thunderstorms. At least through 06z, the latest CAMs keep the
thunderstorms confined to eastern Montana. Thereafter a couple
high resolution models develop isolated convection into the far
northwest. Soundings show an increasing 850mb southerly low level
jet to 50kt-55kt across western ND. The level of free convection
is up around 10kft in northwest ND, thus any thunderstorms that
develop will be high based in nature capable of large hail and
damaging winds. Chances for thunderstorms advance into north
central ND by 12 UTC Thursday before weakening by mid to late
morning. The rest of western and central ND will remain dry
tonight into most of Thursday afternoon.
On Thursday, the surface low ejects to near Williston by early afternoon
then shifts into southern Saskatchewan. This will drag a cold
front into the northwest ND mid to late Thursday afternoon, then
into central ND Thursday evening. There is increasing potential
for thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front late afternoon
through Thursday evening especially in central ND. NAM/GFS Bufkit
soundings across central ND mid to late Thursday afternoon show
increasing instability as moisture advection/dewpoints rise into
the mid 60s. The elevated mixed layer also shows signs of
shrinking as winds turn from southerly to westerly within the
layer, with a resultant period of cold air advection. For the
Bismarck and Minot forecast NAM/GFS soundings, the mixed layer
cape between 21-00 UTC is advertised at 2500-3500 J/Kg along with
0-6km shear of 35-45kt. 850mb equivalent potential temperature
axis of 352K sets up over south central ND, between Bismarck and
Jamestown, which noses into the Turtle Mountains 21-00 UTC Thursday.
With the surface cold front/wind shift in close proximity to the
theta-e axis, would expect this to be the initiating point for
thunderstorms. SPC currently has all but the west in a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms. With increased low level instability,
and the erosion of the capping layer, the potential for tapping
into the above mentioned high cape/high shear environment with
organized severe thunderstorms will need close monitoring.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Successive shortwaves and periodic rounds of thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, remains possible Friday through Sunday. This is
a result of the aforementioned upper low in the west finally
approaching and ejecting east of North Dakota by Sunday night.
This leaves behind a northwest flow aloft Monday through
Wednesday. Periodic shortwaves advertised within northwest flow
will be conducive to more shower/thunderstorm development. Timing
of shortwaves too difficult at this time. Main message is an
active period continues in the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Aviation concerns to start the TAF valid period include low level
wind shear over the west and central until about 16/13z, and the
threat for convection at KISN and KMOT until about 16/18z. A strong
low level jet coming into western / central North Dakota from low
pressure in eastern Montana will result in low level wind shear
until surface speeds increase during the mid morning hours. On the
convection chances at KISN and KMOT, have not included anything in
the TAFs issued at 16/06z as confidence is not yet high enough that
the TAF sites will be impacted.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
901 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this
morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be
possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is
already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay.
However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now
down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty
widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep
most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and
near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain
chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north
of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly
in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few
isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary
tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but
something to keep an eye on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are
streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the
possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north,
the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today
with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from
2100z into the afternoon hours.
Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds.
Confidence is low for shower activity.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt.
Confidence is high.
&&
.MARINE...as of 08:47 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low
pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the
day along with a few showers. The winds will switch to the
northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. Seas are
expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Bell
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
533 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. A warming trend will
develop through the weekend with dangerous heat possible for
parts of the area early next week. Some relief from the heat is
possible by the middle of next week as high pressure weakens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)
A tight pressure gradient remains across Southern Santa Barbara
early this morning. Gusty northerly winds continue across the
area where the Scherpa Fire is burning, especially west of Goleta
to Gaviota. High-resolution model solutions suggest winds
slacking off some around daybreak this morning. Another round of
gusty Sundowner Winds is forecast for this afternoon and tonight.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect across Southern Santa Barbara
County until 6 AM PDT. A Wind Advisory may need to be reissued by
the next shift to get a better handle on the finer details for
this afternoon and tonight.
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a battle is
waged between an upper-level trough of low pressure off the
Pacific Northwest Coast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure
over South Texas. Some clouds associated with the trough`s
weakening cold front are off the Central Coast this morning, but
the ridge`s influence should start to win out keep most of the
clouds and moisture north of the area in Monterey County.
Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend as the high pressure
system over South Texas expands and builds westward into New
Mexico through Saturday. 500 mb heights rise and 1000-500 mb
thickness values climb through the end of the week as onshore
pressure gradients weaken. The marine layer depth will thin
progressively into Saturday. The best chance of marine layer
stratus clouds will occur through tonight, then it will become
hard-pressed to get any low cloud formation. Temperatures have
been nudged slightly higher for Friday and Saturday as model
solutions are warming the air mass slightly in the lower levels
of the atmosphere.
A northerly surface gradient will remain in place and bring
locally gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across
Southern Santa Barbara County. The latest model solutions suggest
slightly weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but
stronger winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM
BUFR time height sections are falling inline with this idea
suggesting the strongest wind core just off the surface of KSBA on
Saturday evening. While Friday`s winds look marginal, a Wind
Advisory may be needed for Saturday afternoon and night when the
timing and run-to-run consistency issues clear.
.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)
Strong ridging aloft builds into the region on Sunday and Monday.
GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures
across the region. Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous
levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal
cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat
Watch will remain in place for now. Temperatures were nudged
higher from Sunday through Tuesday to bring the forecast a tad
more inline with local temperature studies. If GFS solutions play
out as progged, this will likely be the warmest June heatwave in
almost a decade. There is a chance that this heatwave could the
warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat
occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions
suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and
temperatures across the region.
A little less clarity exists for Tuesday through next Thursday as
model solutions start to develop a southeast flow aloft for
middle portion of next week. A monsoonal surge could develop
after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions
with humidity now added into latter half of next week. To pay
more attention to the short-term impacts with the Scherpa Fire and
the hot conditions through the weekend, the latter half of next
week was broad-brushed for now to allow for better timing and
clarity.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1220Z.
At 12Z, a weak marine inversion at KLAX was around 3500 ft deep.
The top of the inversion was around 4600 ft with a temperature
near 14 degrees Celsius.
moderate confidence with vfr conds this morning in most
areas...but less confidence for cigs tonight. Kept skies mostly
VFR overnight...but should see some mvfr or high IFR cigs late
tonight for LA coastal areas. Less confident for coastal valleys
and Central Coast.
KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions between
09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Any east
winds should remain less than 6 knots.
KBUR...high confidence in 12z taf. 30 percent chance for high
ifr/low mvfr cigs after 10z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...16/500 AM
SCA level winds will continue across the outer waters from Point
Sal to San Nicolas Island through late tonight or early Friday
morning. There will be SCA level wind gusts across the western
portion of the SBA western Channel. There could be some smoke over
the channel as well from the Scherpa Fire. Expect gusty NW winds
across the western portion of the channel each afternoon and
evening hours through this weekend and into early next week. A
long period southerly 3-4 ft swell generated from the Southern
Pacific will continue across the coastal waters today and likely
into Friday. Not anticipating any Small Craft for Hazardous Seas
through this weekend.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning For zones
39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Friday For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
450 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...Satellite imagery is
showing mostly clear skies across the southern half if the CWA
with increasing clouds over the northern zones. These increasing
clouds are with the approaching upper low and associated frontal
system. Latest model guidance mainly brings in the rain a little
later today, and also has less rainfall compared with 12Z run
totals. Although, the North Bay is still expected to get the bulk
of the shower activity, rainfall amounts are now progged at under
1/2 inch. Not much is expected south of the Golden Gate, with a
few hundredths of an inch at the most generally just along the
coast. Showers could hang on a little longer, into Friday, per the
latest Nam12, but all activity will remain over the north bay. The
upper low is then forecast to finally move to the east on
Saturday.
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are
streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the
possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north,
the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today
with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from
2100z into the afternoon hours.
Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds.
Confidence is low for shower activity.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt.
Confidence is high.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:40 AM PDT Thursday...Southerly winds are
expected today as a low pressure system approaches the Central
California coast. This low pressure system will also bring the
possibility of showers to the coastal waters. Winds will become
northwest on Thursday as the low pressure system moves inland.
Seas are expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on Saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry
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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
435 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will bring cooler temperatures and
and scattered showers to northwest California through Saturday.
A building ridge of high pressure will bring a warming trend
beginning Sunday with hot and dry weather across the interior
expected to last through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Shower activity was fairly widespread late last
night but estimated rainfall rates were actually quite low. Areas
north of hwy 299 have range from 0.02 to 0.06 inches while
southern Humboldt saw some higher amounts ranging from 0.10 to
0.20 inches. As of 330am shower activity is diminishing in
coverage and intensity...however the region may see another small
spike in activity later today with some support from added surface
heating. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast
just do to the proximety of the upper low however, as was
mentioned in previous discussions, traditional convective
parameters are not impressive thus confidence remains low. Moving
into the weekend the trough will lift northward allowing a
formidable upper level ridge to build across NW CA from the
southwest. This will cause a warming trend to begin on Sunday with
generally hot temperatures across the interior Monday through at
least Thursday. Heights at H5 should range from 591 to 594DM which
should translate to max temperatures well into the lower 100s for
most of our hotter interior valley spots. At this time any
offshore flow associated with the ridge looks light but will also
contribute to some warm interior nights during the hot spell.
&&
.AVIATION...Instability associated with a trough offshore will
bring scattered shower activity as well as periodic MVFR ceilings
to the aerodromes this morning. The shower activity will spike up
again this afternoon and periodic MVFR conditions in showers may
continue to affect KCEC, KACV and KUKI through this evening. Winds
will remain light and variable through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...A weak low offshore will maintain light wind fields over
the coastal waters through Friday. Light southerly flow with a weak
trough this morning should gradually become light westerly this
afternoon and then light northerly overnight. The models continue to
indicate weak low pressure meandering about offshore on Friday and
suspect winds will remain light and varible before becoming
northerly Friday night. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will
slowly build toward the coast Sat and Sun. Northerly winds offshore
will be on the increase during this frame. The potential for low end
or marginal Gales will enter the picture on Sunday and Monday,
primarily in the outer waters north of Cape Mendocino. Confidence is
slightly above average with both the GFS and ECMWF indicating north
winds in the 20-30 kt range on Sunday. Winds inside 10nm will be a
bit more tricky. Current indications are for winds to be light to
moderate. There is a chance for small scale eddy development by
Monday. Even the ARW and HRRR typically are not able to forecast
development of these localized nearshore wind reversals.
Seas will remain mixed through Friday. A long period SOUTHERLY SWELL
from the southern hemisphere will continue to combine with a short
period NW SWELL from the northeast Pacific. The short period NW
SWELL will continue to gradually subside today through Fri, while
the long period southerly groups hold steady. Short period wave
energy will slowly increase over the weekend in response to the
building northerly flow offshore. Expect seas to become elevated and
hazardous Sun into Mon.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
The going forecast is largely on track, so all we did with this
update was increase wind speeds slightly in western ND and tweak
PoPs in north central ND through 15 UTC, both in respect to trends
in observational data. Storms are quickly exiting north central ND
into Canada, with little back-building due to increasing capping.
The window of opportunity for a strong storm in north central ND
early this morning is therefore starting to close.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm potential very late this afternoon through tonight is
the focus of this forecast release.
As of 08 UTC, storms are ongoing from northeast MT into northwest
ND on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet centered near 850 MB, per
overnight model guidance, including recent RAP runs. The elevated
convection is occurring on the edge of a northeastward-advancing
elevated mixed layer containing steep mid-level lapse rates. Thus
far the storms in northwest ND have been sub-severe, but there is
still a chance of a marginally-severe storm through early morning
as MUCAPE continues to increase and exceeds 1000 J/kg as far east
as Minot by 12 UTC. However, forecast soundings still suggest the
mid-level cap may limit activity further east, a notion supported
by recent experimental (ESRL-run) HRRR simulations.
The better part of today will be warm with increasing humidity in
most areas as a surface low in eastern MT this morning lifts north
into Canada and a trailing surface trough/weak cold front moves to
the east, reaching central ND by 00 UTC. Southerly flow in advance
of that wind shift/frontal zone is expected to tap into the pool
of higher dewpoints in central and eastern NEB early this morning.
The consensus of 00 UTC model guidance, including a bias-corrected
flavor of that output that we run in-house, supports surface dew-
points in the mid to upper 60s F over central ND by 00 UTC. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500
J/kg from mid afternoon into the evening. Convective initiation is
likely to hold off until very late afternoon at the earliest with
significant mid-level capping at the base of the elevated mixed
layer seen on model-forecast soundings, and neutral or even slight
positive tendencies in the 500 MB height fields before 00 UTC. We
thus held off on introducing low-end thunderstorm chances until 22
UTC, and even then only aligned them from Minot toward New Salem
along the most probable location of the surface wind shift. A few
00 UTC convection-allowing model simulations do suggest that area
could have incipient storm development by that time, though again
confidence is not that great in formation before evening. We have
increasing PoPs in the forecast post-00 UTC, especially along and
south of Interstate 94 and along and east of Highway 83, which is
when subtle mid-level height falls begin and in the area where 00
UTC guidance and more contemporary HRRR simulations suggest storm
coverage will be greatest.
We have chosen to explicitly mention the possibility of severe
thunderstorms in the gridded and text forecasts over central ND
from late this afternoon into the evening. The degree of MLCAPE
combined with moderate 0-6-km bulk wind differences (shear) from
30 to 40 kt supports organized, possibly supercellular storms with
a large hail and damaging wind threat. Applying the HAILCAST model
to the 00 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW supports peak hailstone sizes of 1.50
to 1.75 inches (ping pong to golf ball size) with the most intense
storms. Updraft helicity output from the 00 UTC SPC SSEO supports
organized storms, especially from Bismarck toward Jamestown during
the evening, but its peak values are not particularly high. That
may be a reflection of the somewhat modest deep-layer shear values
in place, and may suggest that while severe storms are probable, a
high-end or particularly intense event may not be likely. Finally,
precipitable water values in the pre-convective environment are in
the 1.40 inch range, supporting locally heavy rainfall with storms.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend thanks to
a persistent southwest flow aloft on the northern side of a very
strong sub-tropical ridge centered over NM.
Taken at face value, the 00 UTC guidance (including the GFS, NAM,
and ECMWF) suggest that Friday daytime may be relatively dry with
weak height rises aloft in place across the region. However, that
set of models also all suggests that convection forming in MT may
reach western and central ND between 06 and 12 UTC Saturday when
elevated instability rapidly increases. This may pose some risk of
severe weather late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Then,
on Saturday afternoon and evening, the 00 UTC models show strong
instability with MLCAPE potentially reaching 3500 to 4000 J/kg in
parts of southwest and south central ND. The predictability of any
mid-level shortwave troughs embedded in the flow is relatively low
given their lack of amplitude, which suggests the timing and
location of convective development is uncertain. However, if the
00 UTC guidance is correct, the CAPE-shear setting may be one of
the most impressive we`ve seen thus far this year with 0-6-km bulk
wind differences exceeding 50 kt over a wide area. That could mean
a higher-end severe threat is possible, an idea supported by the
00 UTC CIPS analog guidance. Moreover, some guidance suggests that
a well-organized MCS could cross ND Saturday night. Again, there
is considerable uncertainty in any details surrounding this event,
but it will be one to watch in the coming days.
Thereafter, it appears that flow may turn more northwesterly for
a few days early next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and
a somewhat drier pattern Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016
VFR conditions will generally prevail today and tonight. However,
a cold front moving through central ND may produce thunderstorms
after about 22 UTC. KBIS and KJMS have the highest probability of
impacts from thunderstorms with local MVFR or IFR conditions, so
the 12 UTC TAFs carried a VCTS this evening (and lasting until 09
UTC in the case of KJMS).
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
338 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid-
level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving
slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic
remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this
morning. There was not convection located within this circulation
as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was
easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will
continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide
some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri
and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening.
The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across
southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a
loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes
cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of
northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution
would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found
across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive
with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered
thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of
18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud
tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light
reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for
this activity spreading southeast.
If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of
potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern
Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly
allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR
forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is
the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place
favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the
MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale
analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so
will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late
this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this
environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in
the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS
organizing as the HRRR advertises.
Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough
over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and
eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across
Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold
front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow
late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the
northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary
should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow
afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it
should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop
sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central
and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher
confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that
develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end
hail threat.
The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered
storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms
that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the
southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to
southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing
along this front as it move southwest.
Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas
Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier
air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This
will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100
degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from
the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105
degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air
from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory
in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not
extend it into Saturday with this forecast.
Cavanaugh
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge
stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will
shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an
opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State.
Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side
due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the
frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday,
Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder
of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20
Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20
Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10
Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20
Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20
Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10
Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0
Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10
Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Grant-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-
Lonoke-Monroe-Perry-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-Woodruff.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&
$$
Short Term...66 / Long Term...61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
222 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming
trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat
probable for parts of the area beginning Sunday. Some relief from
the heat is possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)
The two forecast problems of the day are for the weather near the
Scherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County and the heat wave expected
to start this Sunday. High-resolution model solutions continue to
suggest that Sundowner Winds will pick back up later this
afternoon and into the evening. Right now it looks like localized
gusts to 35-kts along Santa Barbara`s South Coast and up to
40-kts in the Santa Barbara mountains. Winds at the Refugio RAWS are
only about half that of yesterday`s as of 1 pm. Will continue to
monitor these winds closely and evaluate the necessity of an advisory
later this afternoon. The latest model solutions suggest weaker
Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but stronger winds
are possible again on Saturday afternoon and evening.
The advertised battle between the upper-level trough of low
pressure near the Pacific Northwest and the upper-level ridge of
high pressure over South Texas seems to have been won by the
ridge in our forecast area as there is little to no cloud cover
anywhere to be seen. This ridge should expand and build westward
into New Mexico through Saturday. As it does the 500-mb heights
will rise and the 1000-500 mb thickness values will climb as
onshore pressure gradients weaken. In light of this, the best
chance of marine layer stratus clouds will occur through tonight
on the San Luis Obispo central coast, then it will become hard-
pressed to get any low cloud formation.
The strong ridging aloft builds into the region even more on
Sunday as the heat wave event begins. GFS model solutions
continue to offer up near record temperatures across the region,
with the exception of the immediate coastal areas.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous levels Monday and
Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal cooling taking place in
the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat Watch for will remain in
place. There is a chance that this heatwave could the warmest
June event in over a decade with widespread record heat occurring
on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest a 30
year return interval for low levels heights and temperatures
across the region.
Model solutions for for Tuesday through next Thursday develop a
southeast flow aloft. A monsoonal-like surge could develop after
Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions with
some elevated moisture now added into latter half of next week. An
isolated afternoon thunderstorm is not impossible beginning
Wednesday, but certainly not likely as it looks to remain dry at
the lower levels.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1800Z.
Mid/upper level trough of low pressure upstream will persist while
a ridge of high pressure centered south of the area shifts north.
Upper level moderate southwest winds will become strong southwest
after 17/00z while mid level moderate west-southwest winds
becoming light south after 17/17z over the area. Weak to moderate
onshore pressure gradient through 17/05z and after 17/20z
otherwise weak northerly gradient. Weak capping marine inversion
at LAX with isolated cloud field south of the area will change
little Friday.
Marine layer at LAX at 1500Z is 2338 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 3523 feet with a temp of 12.8 degrees C.
KLAX...chance current sky/vsby conditions will persist through
period.
KBUR...Very likely current sky/vsby will persist through the
period.
virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...16/200 PM.
Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to
San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa
Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight
and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night
and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds
will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and
small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will
build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below
10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is
expected during the remainder of this week and the swells
generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220
will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next
Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are
not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south
facing shores are likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...JLD
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into
Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of
Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and
Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with
potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place
until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening
into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak
gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain
hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on
the larger lakes could reach 3 feet.
Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and
Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest
simulations push one final wave across northern California and
northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best
chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch
of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow
levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow
impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen
National Park.
Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower
80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra
will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in
the Sierra valleys. Brong
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of
high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb
to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the
Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday
and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100
degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday,
with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning
Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are
expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by
Tuesday afternoon.
For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of
the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance.
These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up
reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would
develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance
favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection),
today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above
average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the
middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east,
limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly
near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look
rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add
any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days
especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the
ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs,
so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through
Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level
winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts
ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence
going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of
erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday
afternoon.
For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief
rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers
are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE
tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and
obscuration of higher peaks. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into
Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of
Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and
Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with
potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place
until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening
into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak
gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain
hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on
the larger lakes could reach 3 feet.
Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and
Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest
simulations push one final wave across northern California and
northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best
chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch
of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow
levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow
impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen
National Park.
Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower
80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra
will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in
the Sierra valleys. Brong
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of
high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb
to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the
Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday
and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100
degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday,
with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning
Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are
expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by
Tuesday afternoon.
For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of
the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance.
These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up
reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would
develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance
favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection),
today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above
average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the
middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east,
limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly
near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look
rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add
any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days
especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the
ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs,
so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through
Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level
winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts
ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence
going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of
erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday
afternoon.
For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief
rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers
are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE
tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and
obscuration of higher peaks. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
156 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will continue
to bring cooler than normal temperatures today through Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern valley this
afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Building high pressure will
bring a return of hot temperatures by mid week.
.DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis
indicated a broad upper level low system just off the coast of the
Pacific northwest, which is providing increased cloud cover and
cooler temperatures across the region. A dry slot moving into the
region kept showers and thunderstorms from developing, including
lower snow amounts in the northern Sierra.
Short term model forecasts had a tough time today with the dry
slot aloft, so nearly every model was erroneous with placement and
timing of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As a
result, the immediate short term forecast was a tough one.
Greatest chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are for
the northern mountains and northern valley locations today. Model
soundings and surface forecasts show dry air aloft that could
translate to surface wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms, if they
develop. Storm chances will continue through Friday and Saturday.
A building high pressure from the south will begin to influence
the NorCal area Sunday, and temperatures will return to near
normal in the low 90s in the valley and 60s and 70s for the higher
elevations.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Model guidance suggests an upper level ridge building across western U.S. early
next week. Daytime highs will likely range 10-15 degrees above
normal. The Tuesday- Thursday period looks to be the warmest of
the week, with widespread low 100s across the Valley. Residents
should remember to stay hydrated next week, given the potential
heat impacts.
IDM/JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours. The exception
will be brief MVFR/IFR periods in showers or thunderstorms,
generally over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains.
Showers will diminish tonight.
IDM/JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
145 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and seasonal weather, with only patchy marine layer clouds
and fog at best, will continue through Friday. A high pressure
ridge will strengthen this weekend and bring very hot weather
Sunday through at least early next week. High temperatures will
be well above normal, possibly breaking several records, with
Monday being the hottest day. A slow cooling trend is expected by
the middle of next week as the upper ridge weakens. Some monsoonal
moisture could bring an afternoon thunderstorm or two to the
mountains late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Visible satellite shows clear skies across Southern California,
while a large plume of smoke coming from a wildfire in Santa
Barbara can be seen moving over the waters and into portions of
the forecast area. A ridge starting to build over the region today
is producing higher temperatures today, with temperatures
currently 5-10 degrees higher than 24 hours ago across much of the
area.
Water vapor satellite currently shows a trough over the
Pacific Northwest and a ridge to our southeast, with upper
level southwest flow over us. Models are in very good agreement
with the ridge building to the northwest over the next several
days, resulting in increasingly warmer days and an increasingly
shallow marine layer. The weather heats up significantly on
Sunday, with highs reaching 10-20 degrees above normal. One
potential forecast difficulty for Sunday relates to the some
high clouds which the models show moving over the area that day.
Whether those potential clouds will be widespread and thick
enough to reduce temperatures remains to be seen. The ridge
axis appears to be peak over the four corners on Monday at 600
DM, with 597 DM 500 mb heights extending possibly to our coastal
areas. Also, Monday is when there could be some weak offshore flow
which would help bring hotter conditions to near the
immediate coast. Just how hot it gets at the immediate coast will
depend on if those offshore winds can make it to the coast early
enough before the sea breeze kicks in during the afternoon
bringing cooler ocean air inland. By Monday, the ridge should be
strong enough over the region to completely squash the marine
layer, but other than that day, some night and morning low
clouds/fog could occur at times at the beaches. Monday looks like
the overall hottest day of the heat wave, when max temperatures
reach 15-20, and almost 25 degrees above normal in some
locations. Looks like several daily high temperature records
could be broken on Sunday, and even more on Monday. In fact, a
couple stations may break all time high temperatures for the
month of June on Monday. Highs on Monday are currently forecast
to be in the mid-80s at the beaches and around 90 a few miles
inland. Further away from the coast in Orange and San Diego
counties, highs will be around 97 to 107, 105 to 115 in the Inland
Empire and high desert, mid 80s to upper 90s in the mountains, and
115 to 120 in the low deserts. The morning lows being higher than
normal will only exacerbate the problems with the heat, especially
in the lower deserts where morning lows may only fall to the
upper 80s/low 90s.
Temperatures are likely to lower a bit Tuesday west of the
mountains due to slight weakening of the ridge and some high level
moisture moving up through the area which could bring some cloud
cover to the region. However, it will still be quite hot for areas
away from the coast. It will remain hot through the rest of next
week, but likely not quite as hot as Sunday-Monday-Tuesday, as
the ridge continues to gradually weaken. This may allow a shallow
marine layer to re-develop, so cooling will mainly take place
along the coast and somewhat in the valleys, while mountain and
desert areas remain hot with 594 mb heights associated with the
ridge lingering over the forecast area through the end of the work
week. The Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to an Excessive
Heat Warning for all areas except the Orange and San Diego county
coasts.
With the ridge axis orienting itself northwest to southeast over
the four corners on Wednesday-Thursday, marginally moist
southeasterly flow aloft could result in afternoon thunderstorms
over the mountains both of those days. For now, have added slight
chance for showers/t-storms for a few high terrain locations for
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
162030Z...Coast/Valleys...Skc conds will continue through this
evening. Sct/Bkn low clouds will redevelop again tonight and push up
to 5 miles inland aft 17/0600z. Bases around 1000 FT MSL and tops
1500 FT MSL. These clouds are expected to be rather disorganized, so
have included a TEMPO group in the KSAN, KSNA,and KOKB TAFS. This
patchy stratus layer will dissipate by 17/1500z.
Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Friday. Gusty west winds 20-30 KT this afternoon again Friday
afternoon on desert mountain slopes, through the San Gorgonio Pass,
and into the northern Coachella Valley.
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM...Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 kts over the Outer Waters
through this evening.
No hazardous marine weather is expected Friday through Sunday.
&&
.BEACHES...
200 PM...A 4-foot, 17 second southerly swell will continue through
this evening, bringing elevated surf to local beaches. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect for Orange County for surf of 5 to 7 ft with
occasional sets to 9 ft and strong rip currents. In San Diego
County, the surf will be lower, so a Beach Hazards Statement will
continue in effect for surf of 3 to 6 feet, locally reaching 7 feet
at times with Strong longshore currents at the beaches as well.
The swell and surf will gradually lower Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys-
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for San
Diego County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Orange
County Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
144 PM MST THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The large Pacific low pressure system along the west coast that had
kept afternoon temperatures below normal for the past six days will
weaken today. As a result, a high pressure system will slowly build
over the region through Friday, then intensify Saturday through next
week. Record high temperatures and dangerous high heat Sunday
through Wednesday has prompted the issuance of an excessive Heat
Warning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONUS satellite imagery this early afternoon depicts a broad area of
high pressure building over the Plains and into the central Canadian
provinces. High pressure will strengthen and expand so much so it
will begin to retrograde and build back towards the
Southwest/Intermountain West states by the late weekend and early
next week. This due to anomalously strong trough heights over the
western Atlantic and East Coast. But for today and Friday, gradually
increasing ML/UL heights will promote a subtle warm-up, with
seasonable temperatures and some afternoon breeziness. With weak
surface pressure gradients, winds will follow fairly typical
terrain-driven diurnal headings. Easterly down drainage winds (in
particular the Salt River drainage) from the higher terrain
northeast/east of Phoenix will allow some smoke from the Cedar Creek
Fire, located southwest of Show Low, to make its way into the Valley.
Included mention of patchy smoke through portions of the East and
North Phx Valleys as well as the valleys of southern Gila county for
Friday and Saturday mornings.
Saturday through Wednesday...
The expanding high pressure system over the region will build to
levels not seen in a while, meaning record heat especially Sunday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will make a very drastic upward
swing, warming 15 to 20 degrees over readings from the last few days.
Athough Saturday will be hot on the south central AZ deserts and
mountains, afternoon temperatures were marginal for a heat warning,
and considerable high cloudiness forecast may result in slightly
lower temperatures readings. In fact, this area of cloudiness will be
some moisture advection through the mid and upper levels from an
area of potential tropical development off the Manzanillo coast
currently. Strong subsident ridge flow will remain over much of the
southern CONUS into next week, maintaining concern for a long
duration heat event for many in the lower desert locations. One
caveat though, models are forecasting increasing low level moisture
from Mexico late Mon through Wed. 850 mb dewpoints are forecast to go
positive this period under increasing south winds. Increasing
humidities may limit the upper end of the diurnal curve, while also
boosting the lower end and making for some warm overnight lows.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968
June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960
Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:
Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on Aug 27 1981
5) 118 on several days 120 on June 24 1957
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry southwesterly flow will keep skies clear through the period.
Winds will follow normal diurnal directional trends, remaining on
the lighter side around 5 to 10 mph, with a few afternoon gusts
up to 20 mph over KBLH.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday...
Very hot temperatures will persist across the region, with the
hottest days on Sunday and Monday, with lower desert temperatures
rising into the 115-120 degrees. Although winds will remain on the
light side on Sunday and Monday, very dry conditions (minimum
humidities in the mid to upper single digits) with fair to poor
overnight recoveries, and Haines Index values between 5 and 6 will
result in elevated fire danger levels. Tuesday through Thursday, a
slight increase in humidities (in the upper single-digit to mid-teen
range) along with slightly cooler temperatures will help to reduce
the fire danger levels.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ020>028.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday
for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/Vasquez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1106 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this
morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be
possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is
already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay.
However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now
down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty
widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep
most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and
near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain
chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north
of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly
in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few
isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary
tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but
something to keep an eye on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 11:00 AM PDT Thursday...Based off of the latest
models plus radar, newest TAF package has shra/VCSH removed from
all spots except STS. Winds still forecast to generally become 230
to 260 after 20Z with speeds under 12 KT. Tonight is a more
difficult call with MVFR possibly returning although not very
confident about the heights. High confidence through 06Z with low
to moderate confidence after that.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the day with possible MVFR
returning after 06Z. Winds generally 230 to 260 today and under 10
KT. High confidence through 05Z. Low to moderate after that.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the day with possible MVFR
returning after 03Z. Winds generally 250 to 280 with speeds up to
10 KT. High confidence through 03Z. Low to moderate confidence
after that.
&&
.MARINE...as of 10:53 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low
pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the
day along with a few showers. the winds will switch to the
northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. seas are
expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
however...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. the surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Bell
MARINE: Bell
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
922 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners
Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming
trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat
probable for parts of the area beginning Sunday. Some relief from
the heat is possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)
Gusty northerly winds continue across the area where the Scherpa
Fire is burning, especially west of Goleta to Gaviota. 8am
observation from Refugio RAWS had northerly winds of 27 mph with
gusts to 38. High-resolution model solutions suggest winds will
continue to weaken throughout the morning but pick back up around
2pm this afternoon. Another round of gusty Sundowner Winds is
forecast for this afternoon and tonight although it looks to be at
least 7 mph weaker than last night`s. Will evaluate another Wind
Advisory for the area as the afternoon approaches.
*** From Previous Discussion ***
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a battle is
waged between an upper-level trough of low pressure off the
Pacific Northwest Coast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure
over South Texas. Some clouds associated with the trough`s
weakening cold front are off the Central Coast this morning, but
the ridge`s influence should start to win out keep most of the
clouds and moisture north of the area in Monterey County.
Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend as the high pressure
system over South Texas expands and builds westward into New
Mexico through Saturday. 500 mb heights rise and 1000-500 mb
thickness values climb through the end of the week as onshore
pressure gradients weaken. The marine layer depth will thin
progressively into Saturday. The best chance of marine layer
stratus clouds will occur through tonight, then it will become
hard-pressed to get any low cloud formation. Temperatures have
been nudged slightly higher for Friday and Saturday as model
solutions are warming the air mass slightly in the lower levels
of the atmosphere.
A northerly surface gradient will remain in place and bring
locally gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across
Southern Santa Barbara County. The latest model solutions suggest
slightly weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but
stronger winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM
BUFR time height sections are falling inline with this idea
suggesting the strongest wind core just off the surface of KSBA on
Saturday evening. While Friday`s winds look marginal, a Wind
Advisory may be needed for Saturday afternoon and night when the
timing and run-to-run consistency issues clear.
.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)
Strong ridging aloft builds into the region on Sunday and Monday.
GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures
across the region. Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous
levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal
cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat
Watch will remain in place for now. Temperatures were nudged
higher from Sunday through Tuesday to bring the forecast a tad
more inline with local temperature studies. If GFS solutions play
out as progged, this will likely be the warmest June heatwave in
almost a decade. There is a chance that this heatwave could the
warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat
occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions
suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and
temperatures across the region.
A little less clarity exists for Tuesday through next Thursday as
model solutions start to develop a southeast flow aloft for
middle portion of next week. A monsoonal surge could develop
after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions
with humidity now added into latter half of next week. To pay
more attention to the short-term impacts with the Scherpa Fire and
the hot conditions through the weekend, the latter half of next
week was broad-brushed for now to allow for better timing and
clarity.
&&
.AVIATION...16/1220Z.
At 12Z, a weak marine inversion at KLAX was around 3500 ft deep.
The top of the inversion was around 4600 ft with a temperature
near 14 degrees Celsius.
moderate confidence with vfr conds this morning in most
areas...but less confidence for cigs tonight. Kept skies mostly
VFR overnight...but should see some mvfr or high IFR cigs late
tonight for LA coastal areas. Less confident for coastal valleys
and Central Coast.
KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions between
09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Any east
winds should remain less than 6 knots.
KBUR...high confidence in 12z taf. 30 percent chance for high
ifr/low mvfr cigs after 10z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...16/900 AM.
Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to
San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa
Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight
and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night
and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds
will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and
small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will
build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below
10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is
expected during the remainder of this week and the swells
generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220
will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next
Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are
not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south
facing shores are likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For
zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Friday For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...JLD
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
901 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will
maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late
season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California
late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this
weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds
westward from the Desert Southwest.
&&
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this
morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be
possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is
already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay.
However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now
down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty
widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep
most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and
near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain
chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north
of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly
in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few
isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary
tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but
something to keep an eye on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...
High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern
California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The
hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far
Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into
inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and
San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high
temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland
areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees
of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas
will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine
influence.
Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest
through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler
across our area by then.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are
streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the
possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north,
the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today
with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from
2100z into the afternoon hours.
Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds.
Confidence is low for shower activity.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt.
Confidence is high.
&&
.MARINE...as of 08:47 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low
pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the
day along with a few showers. The winds will switch to the
northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. Seas are
expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell.
However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near
offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will
strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Bell
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
The mid-level ridge remained anchored across the central U.S., with
southerly surface winds in place as the CWA was wedged between low
pressure to the west and high pressure to the southeast. Some cloud
cover lingered across far east central Kansas due to the
precipitation from the morning MCV. As a result, afternoon
temperatures there were a few degrees cooler than originally
forecast, but readings reached near 100 degrees across north central
Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat
indices ranged from the mid 90s east to 100-105 degrees across north
central and central Kansas. A weak convergence zone was noted in
northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, with visible satellite
showing some shallow cumulus popping up. With some isentropic lift
present on the 310K surface, the HRRR and RAP show the potential for
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up across southeast
Kansas late this afternoon into this evening, and this activity may
extend northward into east central Kansas. As a result, have added
slight chance PoPs. Mesoscale analysis showed little to no cap in
place with 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, so if storms are
able to develop they may be strong. However, wind shear continues to
look weak at 20kts or less so it should be difficult for storms to
sustain themselves for long. The main hazards with any strong storms
would be hail and gusty winds.
With the ridge still in place, expect another hot day tomorrow.
However, models show 850mb temperatures being slightly cooler
compared to today. As a result, have Friday high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler across north central/central Kansas with
readings expected to range from the mid 90s east to the upper 90s
west. Models are still showing dewpoints reaching into the upper
60s to low/mid 70s, which would push afternoon heat indices into the
103 to 108 degree range. As a result, the Excessive Heat Watch for
Friday has been upgraded to a Heat Advisory for the entire outlook
area. A somewhat stationary boundary may be in place across central
Kansas by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This nearby boundary
combined with an embedded shortwave within the mid-level ridge
across north central Kansas may help to produce some scattered
storms by mid to late afternoon. Due to the low confidence in the
timing and location of any storms, only have slight chance PoPs at
this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
Friday Night through Sunday...
Friday evening and overnight provides an interesting low-probability
setup with potential for thunderstorm development across parts of
the area. Expect extreme mid level lapse rates across the entire
region, but the location and extent of instability will depend on
quality of low level moisture. Right now this appears to be better
focused to the southwest, or at least over SW parts of the forecast
area with a pretty good MUCAPE gradient increasing from NE to SW
across the region. There are signs of convergent flow in the low
levels and on a weak low level jet during the evening and overnight
hours from NW into central and SE Kansas and this added moisture
convergence could be sufficient for thunderstorm development in the
evening. Furthermore, there is upslope flow focused into NE Colorado
and SE Nebraska and if this allows convection to grow upscale and
organize a cold pool in this area, could see it propagating along
the convergence zone toward central KS. Again, this is low
probability, but there is a chance for either or both scenarios to
play out through Friday night.
Saturday looks to be slightly cooler with flow from the southeast
being a bit cooler although with neutral or slight moisture
advection. Have also forecast a bit cooler due to potential for some
cloud debris during the day as well. Current forecast is for heat
indices to a bit lower but still have some potential to be quite hot
if staying clear and/or higher dewpoints. With the excessive heat
watch already in effect, will maintain it as-is through Sunday as
things look a bit warmer yet for Sunday and with a much better
chance of being capped off to convection and precipitation and cloud
free.
Sunday Night through Thursday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Monday appears to be the warmest day within the extended period with
high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indicies approaching
100. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, knocking high temperatures back
into the upper 80s to near 90. Thunderstorm chances also return with
the frontal passage. Model guidance suggests slight thunderstorm
chances will be continue through the remainder of the period as an
upper level trough across the Great Lakes region skirts the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with winds prevailing out of the south-southeast. There may be a
few wind gusts near 20kts early this afternoon at KMHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke