Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/16/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
902 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016



.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will bring unseasonably cool and unsettled
weather across the region through the end of the week. Showers,
thunderstorms, and high elevation snow will be possible late
Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to warm up
Friday and over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue over Shasta County and areas to the north this
evening. The latest HRRR keeps some activity over Shasta County
through the night but gradually moves the activity eastward. Some
activity will move over the Lassen Park area around midnight but
amounts for the overnight hours look light. snow levels in that
area will may lower to between 5500 and 6500 feet by morning but
in general around an inch or less is expected.

As the trough deepens on Thursday a stronger and wetter wave will
move inland. The models are mixed on where the wave and associated
rain will make rainfall. The NAM moves it through Lake County and
northeast up through Lassen Park/Plumas County. The HRRR brings
the wave in a little further south into the Bay Area during the
morning hours. The GFS is closer to the HRRR in where it will
bring that wave inland but is a little more bullish in bringing
more rain inland into the valley and into the Sierra Nevada from
around I-80 northward. This wave looks to bring the most amount
of snow to the Lassen Park area but as time goes on snow levels
will rise from the afternoon through the night. Higher elevations
in Lassen Park could see some significant snowfall. Further south
snow levels look to be above pass levels and amounts less than 2
inches. Some steady rain looks possible over the valley during the
day where the wave ends up moving onshore.

On Friday the trough remains over the area with some slight
chances of showers or thunderstorms over the north end of the
valley and surrounding mountains continuing. It will take until
Saturday before chances of precipitation over the interior end and
the start of the warming trend begins.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

The extended forecast will be hot and dry weather for interior NorCal
as a large high pressure system strengthens into the western U.S.
Daytime highs will start out a few degrees above normal on Sunday
then climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Significantly strong winds are not expected but may
become locally breezy at times as weak disturbances pivot through
upper level southwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours except possible MVFR/IFR conditions
in showers or thunderstorms northern mountains and northern
Sacramento valley late this evening into Thursday. Breezy
southerly winds with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the delta and over
Sierra Cascades.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Western
Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The mid-level ridge axis has become centered over the central U.S., with models showing this ridge strengthening and becoming more amplified on Thursday. Light southerly winds were in place this afternoon with the region wedged between surface low pressure to the east and high pressure to the southeast. Observations showed a weak convergence zone across central and south central Kansas, with visible satellite showing some scattered cumulus developing along this area of convergence. A moist airmass was in place over east central to southeast Kansas with mesoscale analysis showing no cap in place. These conditions combined with steep lapse rates was resulting in decent instability of 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE in east central Kansas. Additionally, models are showing the potential for a weak embedded wave to develop within the ridge axis late this afternoon into early this evening. The weak forcing from this wave along with the presence of some isentropic lift on the 310K-315K surfaces may potentially result in the development of some very isolated storms across portions of central and east central Kansas. Despite the weak shear values, any storms that develop may have the potential to become strong with the hazards being hail and wind but storms would likely be short-lived. Due to the low- confidence in the potential let along location of any storm development, have only slight chance PoPs in at this time, but will need to closely monitor the short-term trends. Additional scattered storms may develop across far eastern Kansas overnight from additional isentropic lift and may potentially clip extreme northeast Kansas early Thursday morning. Otherwise expect predominantly dry conditions through Thursday across the outlook area. The main focus for the short-term shifts to the high heat concerns. With afternoon heat indices in the low 100s this afternoon across east central Kansas, a heat advisory remains in effect. This heat advisory has been expanded to include the entire outlook area for Thursday as high temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Models show a moisture axis extending northward across the area, with the higher dewpoints (low/mid 70s) focused across northeast and east central Kansas. The combination of hot temperatures and moist conditions will likely result in heat indices surging into the mid/upper 100s Thursday afternoon. We will need to monitor these temperature/dewpoint conditions for Thursday to determine whether or not any locations will need to be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Thursday Night through Saturday... The forecast challenge for the Friday and Saturday time period is heat and to a lessor extent, thunderstorm chances. A large scale warm upper ridge is forecast to extend from the southwest U.S. northeast through the plains during this period. Thermal ridge remains to our west with continued hot temperatures. Since the overall airmass is not changing during this period, expect highs to reach the mid/upper 90s Fri-Sun. Dewpoint temperatures are tricky. The models suggest that the boundary layer moist axis will extend across eastern KS Friday and Saturday. The 30mb AGL dewpoints on the GFS/NAM show an area high dewpoints or moisture pool, over eastern OK and southeast KS this afternoon. Even with afternoon mixing, dewpoints were in the upper 70s in this area. This moist axis is forecast to extend over eastern KS this weekend. Therefore, forecast of afternoon dewpoints in the lower/middle 70s seems reasonable with lower values to the west. The other consideration will be thunderstorm chances. Although the airmass will be unstable, lack of an identifiable trigger is a problem. Forecast small POPS Friday night into Sat morning to account for the small chance of an MCS in the area. Otherwise, will forecast dry weather. Given the prolonged nature of the heat event and being early in the season, elected to go with a excessive heat watch over the weekend. Saturday Night through Wednesday... Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period. Sustained southerly flow will allow hot and humid conditions to continue through the weekend. With heat indicies approaching 105 degrees through Sunday, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued through 00Z Monday. The only signal for precipitation in the extended period arrives Monday into Tuesday as a weak cold front progresses across the CWA. Scattered thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough moves across portions of the central and northern plains. High temperatures behind the cold front are expected to cool back into the upper 80s and lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 VFR expected at terminals, although we are monitoring diurnal driven convection west of KMHK. Short term guidance carries this eastward by 01Z with possible development ahead of it so have added VCTS through 05Z with the scattered coverage. IFR will be likely if a storm passes directly overhead. Thereafter, light southeast winds and a few high clouds prevail. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ008>012-020>024-034. Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056- 058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Baerg/Johnson AVIATION...prieto
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 515 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. There is a weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a weak ripple in the 500mb height field. Several surface troughs are in place within the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest Nebraska and a second orientated near Hays. Near both of these features Cu fields have develop, but the more impressive updrafts near the convergence zone near a Hays also correlated with approximate location of upper level shortwave trough. This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values with further drops in Td`s expected. Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening. Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east, however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today (if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure throughout the period. Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region. On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before advancing again on Saturday. The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure over the High Plains. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold front sags south towards the area. The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100 degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front approaches the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 514 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016 VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Winds will be light through tonight but increase to breezy again by Thursday afternoon with deep mixing. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Upper shortwave trof over the Central Rockies is moving quickly to the northeast, while outflows from convection over the panhandles has made it as far northeast as the RDA at this hour. Forecast area remains dry at this hour, with warm overnight lows again in the lower 70s with dewpoints near 70. For convection today, lack of strong concentrated lift or a discrete boundary seems to be where models differ, as cap is weak and would take little to initiate convection. Some models still bring in morning showers and thunder from ongoing convection out west, though the lift driving it is on the wane through the morning hours. HiRes models also suggest isolated to scattered morning convection, before a break late morning, with redevelopment late afternoon into the evening and moving through the east central counties. GFS also driving round of afternoon storms out of Nebraska into east central counties in the evening. 06ZNAM showing some weak surface convergence and a dewpoint gradient near the NE border where synoptic lift is a bit better, and generates a line of storms in the evening hours, with another round possible late evening over the far east central counties although the source is a bit harder to discern. In any case, CAPE values in the column running 2000j/kg and directional shear of 25-30kts would make hail the primary hazard, and more likely so in the northern areas where better ingredients come together to initiate storms. Couldn`t rule out a tornado if a storm can get going along a boundary. End result was to spread precip chances west to east, with a higher focus to the north and in the east central into the evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Westerly low-level winds overnight bring a somewhat warmer airmass into the area for Wednesday, with conditions showing little change in the mid to late week periods as upper ridge builds over the central CONUS in modest advections. Models suggesting various ideas of isolated to scattered convection potential returning as early as Thursday night as PWs increase to over 1.5 inches again. Hard to rule this out completely but not worthy of a mention. With 850mb temps in the lower to middle 20s C, the main forecast challenge looks to be dewpoint values. Have bumped values up a bit given weak mixing, with peak heat index values around 105 in some places through the end of the week, and only slightly cooler this weekend. Heat headline potential will need to be monitored. There remains some signal for the ridge breaking down early next week but confidence in this is not high. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 VFR prevails through period with concerns focusing on MVFR stratus and fog from 10 to 14Z. Thereafter, scattered showers and thunder may center near KMHK with more uncertainty further east at KTOP and KFOE. With the main upper wave coming through in the late afternoon evening, placed a VCTS for a few severe storms in the area through 02Z before clearing skies. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 314 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 Remnants of the Mesoscale convective complex (MCS) over SW KS has moved south into Wrn OK at this time, with just a weak outflow moving across the area. Lift associated with the main shortwave currently in the Rockies and increased warm advection ahead of it, has led to scattered showers/storms increasing across much of ern CO and wrn KS early this morning. Expect this warm advection and lift to gradually shift east into wrn sections of the forecast late this morning, with scattered showers/storms breaking out for most areas west of I-135 for the morning hours. Expect most of the morning shower activity to slowly shift to NE into NE KS by midday, as a hybrid pacific/dryline pushes out of wrn ks into Central KS by this afternoon. Morning showers and associated cloudiness will make diagnosing afternoon convective/severe storm chances messy/difficult. Lots of uncertainty on how this afternoon will play out as the morning cloudiness limits afternoon heating. An unstable airmass will be located across most of Ern KS, even with the cloudiness, with SBCAPE values expected to climb into the 3500-4000 J/KG range. As the shortwave over the high plains lifts north across Neb, bulk shear is also expected to increase to 30-40 kts. Expect the morning convection to become more surface based to the NE of the forecast area as the afternoon progresses. But the big question further south, will be if enough heating can materialize for the late afternoon hours as the dryline line/front pushes to near I-135. Latest hi-res models suggest that cloud cover will limit convective chances for the late afternoon hours, possibly delaying chances the small chance until this evening. Also with better dynamics further north, think convective chances across the forecast area (further south) will be isolated at best, to a few supercells, if heating can allow atmosphere to erode the weak cap. Consensus of the short range models places the dryline/front along I- 135 by this afternoon. If a storm can get going, the very unstable airmass and shear suggests a supercell storm and severe potential, especially for areas along and east of the Turnpike. Scratching my head a little on the abrupt shift to the NE of the day 1 SPC outlook. Would prefer to keep a severe mention for areas east of the KS Turnpike with tennis ball size hail and damaging winds possible, But an expected more isolated storm coverage is why the SPC shift to the NE. Cannot completely rule out a low tornado threat, associated with any supercell that can develop, possibly rooted along a remnant outflow boundary which will increase helicity/low level shear. Best chance for a supercell to develop will be across South Central KS (if slower front progression materializes) and (more likely) across the Flint HIlls in southern KS near the KS/OK border. Expect any supercell that does develop to move east into Wrn MO during the late evening hours. Thunderstorm chances appear to be more numerous for areas NE of the forecast area across NE KS where better dynamics look to be more focused. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 Still expecting a "hot time in the old town" for the end of the week, as the mid level ridge builds back across the plains. Could see locations in South Central KS reach 100-102 degrees for Wed and near 100 on Thu, as south-SW flow will lead to optimal downslope conditions. Will have to keep an eye on areas east of the KS Turnpike for Wed/Thu as the combination of the hot temps in the upper 90s and humid air with surface dewpoints in the low 70s may lead to Heat Index values reaching the 105 to 107 range. So a heat advisory may be needed with later forecast issuance`s across extreme Southern KS. Plan on keeping the end of the week into the weekend dry, as the ridge builds across the area. Could see a few spurious/isolated storms develop on Wed, Thu or Fri across Srn KS as a weak impulse drifts underneath the ridge, with temps possibly reaching their convective temp. But chance is too isolated and low to mention just yet. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Complicated and difficult forecast regarding thunderstorm chances and potential low ceilings overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect gusty/erratic winds for a few hours past midnight over portions of central and south-central KS in response to decaying shower/thunderstorm complex approaching from the west, including Wichita. May see a few showers associated with this feature, but thinking most areas will remain dry. Scattered showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight into early Tuesday morning from western into central and northern KS in response to increasing warm advection/moisture transport ahead of Central Rockies upper trough, including Great Bend-Salina-Russell, and maybe Hutchinson. Meanwhile, locations that remain undisturbed from convective outflow could see low clouds once again later tonight into early Tuesday, probably mainly southeast KS, including Chanute and maybe Wichita-Hutchinson. Furthermore, additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may form generally east of I-135 Tuesday afternoon. Some of these may be severe with large hail/damaging winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 93 72 101 75 / 30 20 10 10 Hutchinson 92 69 101 73 / 30 10 10 10 Newton 91 71 99 73 / 30 20 10 10 ElDorado 91 71 97 73 / 30 30 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 93 73 99 74 / 30 30 10 10 Russell 91 66 101 72 / 40 10 10 10 Great Bend 91 67 101 72 / 40 10 10 10 Salina 92 68 101 74 / 40 10 10 10 McPherson 92 69 100 74 / 30 10 10 10 Coffeyville 90 74 96 74 / 30 40 10 10 Chanute 90 73 98 74 / 30 40 10 10 Iola 91 72 98 74 / 30 40 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 90 74 97 74 / 30 40 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDK LONG TERM...BDK AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 205 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but it is something to monitor. UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and Cheyenne Counties in Kansas. In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened. As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where thunderstorms are still possible/probable. UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253. This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously issued counties. Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36 tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also possible. Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of flash flooding. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016 The extended period is expected to be hot and dry! A upper level ridge will influence the High Plains as an area of high pressure expands across the southwestern U.S. over the weekend. A few weak shortwaves looks to be in the flow aloft, but with the dry airmass in place, don`t expect more than an isolated thunderstorm or two as they move off the higher terrain and dissipate over the plains. This pattern will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures each day with the daily high temperatures reaching the middle 90s to the lower 100s range, from west to east, across the Tri- State area. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska. However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature. Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus. Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed. Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now, did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RRH SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 ...Updated for Long Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 For the period of Wednesday into next Monday, upper level ridging builds deeply into the Central Plains. This will cause hot temperatures around 100 to 102 degrees each day with very warm lows around 70. Heat index values should stay below the 105 degree thresholds for heat advisory. There also will be very little to no chance for any precipitation though this period. Winds will be mainly southerly through the period with clear to mostly clear skies. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area. There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10 GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10 EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10 HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10 P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kruse LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 ...Updated for Long Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 For the period of Wednesday into next Monday, upper level ridging builds deeply into the Central Plains. This will cause hot temperatures around 100 to 102 degrees each day with very warm lows around 70. Heat index values should stay below the 105 degree thresholds for heat advisory. There also will be very little to no chance for any precipitation though this period. Winds will be mainly southerly through the period with clear to mostly clear skies. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area. There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10 GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10 EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10 HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10 P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kruse LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 231 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 ...Updated for Short Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas. Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific. Winds shift back to a southerly direction Wednesday as a trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. This feature is expected to continue through the remainder of the week with winds meandering between a southerly and southwesterly direction. As for temperatures, highs look to hover around 100 degrees each day with lows ranging from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas each night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area. There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10 GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10 EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10 HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10 P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kruse LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1149 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but it is something to monitor. UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and Cheyenne Counties in Kansas. In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened. As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where thunderstorms are still possible/probable. UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253. This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously issued counties. Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36 tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also possible. Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of flash flooding. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry. The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend. A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains. High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing a heat highlight. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska. However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature. Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus. Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed. Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now, did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RRH SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1149 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but it is something to monitor. UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and Cheyenne Counties in Kansas. In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened. As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where thunderstorms are still possible/probable. UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253. This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously issued counties. Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36 tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also possible. Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of flash flooding. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry. The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend. A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains. High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing a heat highlight. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska. However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature. Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus. Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed. Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now, did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RRH SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1159 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Thunderstorm complex currently over southwest KS and OK Panhandle should continue to maintain its strength over the next few hours given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment over the High Plains. Propagation will likely maintain to the east/southeast along northern fringe of highest theta-e air over the southern High Plains. Thinking with time the complex may tend to weaken/diminish some as it approaches south-central KS toward 11pm-midnight, due to lack of appreciable low-level jet, lower instability and weaker shear. Short-term hi-res guidance supports this scenario. Beyond midnight, thunderstorm forecast confidence is low, with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere along and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest moisture transport/warm advection, underneath broad large scale ascent ahead of approaching upper trough. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Main concern is convective potential throughout the period. Confidence is low that any of the models have a good handle, but midday RAP seemed to be the best fit to anticipated evolution. Current theory is that convection in Southeast KS will continue to bubble until sunset, with combo of heating and location ahead of weak mid level boundary evident on morning upper air analysis. Meanwhile convection appears likely in Western Nebraska and potentially into Colorado/Western KS this evening. Am not inclined to believe most models showing due east movement given what happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent. Went slower than previous forecast moving precipitation in tonight, mostly likely reaching Central KS closer to midnight and then into South Central KS around daybreak. Whether precipitation holds together and amount of areal coverage is questionable given lack of good baroclinic zone or upper wave. Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday: Tuesday afternoon is a wild card with much depending on extent and track of convection Monday night/Tuesday morning. In absence of extensive precipitation/clouds over the area, conditions would favor a higher end severe threat. However if models are correct with extensive precipitation in NE KS in the morning, the outflow could either enhance or nix thunderstorm chances in Southeast KS, depending on how far south it goes. Temperatures will be highly dependent on amount of convective debris. May flirt with heat advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday along OK border in Southeast KS. Given high uncertainty in precipitation, opted to not go with a headline. Maxes on Wednesday should be warmer as 500MB ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures possibly a degree or two cooler on Thursday. Capping/lack of forcing should shut down precipitation chances on both Wednesday/Thursday. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Little change to initialization grids. Given anticipated 1000-850 thicknesses, did shave a degree off maxes on Friday and upped maxes in the Sunday/Monday. Chances for precipitation this period look to be slim. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016 Complicated and difficult forecast regarding thunderstorm chances and potential low ceilings overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect gusty/erratic winds for a few hours past midnight over portions of central and south-central KS in response to decaying shower/thunderstorm complex approaching from the west, including Wichita. May see a few showers associated with this feature, but thinking most areas will remain dry. Scattered showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight into early Tuesday morning from western into central and northern KS in response to increasing warm advection/moisture transport ahead of Central Rockies upper trough, including Great Bend-Salina-Russell, and maybe Hutchinson. Meanwhile, locations that remain undisturbed from convective outflow could see low clouds once again later tonight into early Tuesday, probably mainly southeast KS, including Chanute and maybe Wichita-Hutchinson. Furthermore, additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may form generally east of I-135 Tuesday afternoon. Some of these may be severe with large hail/damaging winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 72 97 72 99 / 30 20 20 10 Hutchinson 72 95 69 99 / 40 30 10 10 Newton 71 95 71 99 / 30 30 20 10 ElDorado 71 93 71 97 / 20 30 30 10 Winfield-KWLD 72 96 73 98 / 30 20 20 10 Russell 69 92 66 100 / 40 40 10 10 Great Bend 69 93 67 100 / 40 40 10 10 Salina 72 95 68 100 / 40 40 10 10 McPherson 71 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10 Coffeyville 70 95 74 96 / 10 30 30 10 Chanute 70 93 73 96 / 20 30 40 10 Iola 70 92 72 96 / 20 30 40 10 Parsons-KPPF 70 93 74 96 / 10 30 30 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ UPDATE...ADK SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...ADK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 Showers have continued to re-generate over north central ND during the last few hours, and radar suggests that trend may continue for a while, so we increased PoPs in that area with this update cycle. Little in the way of change was made to the rest of the forecast, with the main challenge today determining the northwest extent of the more solid showers and storms. Recent RAP and HRRR model runs continue to suggest the James River valley will be favored for heavier precipitation, with Bismarck/Mandan near the west edge of the more solid precipitation shield. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 Confidence in the forecast for today is not high with respect to rain and thunderstorms. Great way to start the discussion, right? Showers across the north are left over from what moved out of Montana last night. They were pushing north but the parent short wave was slow to exit, resulting in continued shower formation on the south side of the activity. A large area of rain has been over south central South Dakota all night. The high resolution short term models brought this batch north with the highest chances of rain from Bismarck through the James River Valley. Radar trends have been to weaken the area of rain and push it more east. In turn the latest hourly model runs have still brought it into North Dakota, but farther east, with Bismarck just getting a glancing blow. The latest trend, as of this writing, is that the large rain area was rapidly weakening while convection was firing on the nose of the short wave and left front of the jet max, to the east of it. This spells uncertainty as to just how much rain falls, and where. Looks like the James River Valley has the highest chances. Another fly is the dry slot, where it ends up, and the likelihood that it will lead to thunderstorm development. And, another wave coming through eastern Montana later with some storms possible along the state line there. At any rate, rain ends this evening and dry weather starts Wednesday off before the next wave in the southwest flow comes in later in the day. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 Storms look possible later Wednesday. Then, on Thursday the ridge builds back in with sunshine and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. A southeast surface flow brings increasing dew points that in turn act to increase instability. The lifting mechanism is a surface trough coming out of Montana. This looks to bring the chance for severe storms to the forecast area Thursday evening. Southwest flow and wave after wave through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016 Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely today in the southern James River valley. We are less confident in the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity over the rest of the west and central so the 12 UTC TAFs mainly used VCSH and VCTS mentions except at KJMS. Local MVFR conditions are possible when and where showers and storms occur today. Showers and storms will diminish after 00 UTC. && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...JPM LONG TERM...JPM AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
924 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonal weather, but with less extensive coastal clouds, will continue through Friday. A high pressure ridge will strengthen this weekend to bring very hot weather to the region through early next week. High temperatures will approach record levels for most if not all areas of Socal. A slow cooling trend is expected by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...evening update... No updates were needed this evening. The 00z sounding shows that the marine layer continues its very slow decline as a large high pressure ridge begins to eat into Socal. This feature will dominate the regions weather this weekend through early to mid next week. Record breaking temperatures appear likely for many locations with this heat event. One of our Facebook fans brought up a great question this evening about the potential for excessive humidity to sync up during this event. If you look at the medium range placement of the center of the monster high across the desert SW by early next week, there could be an ideal setup to rotate some subtropical moisture around the high into parts of our region. If this happens it could bring slightly less hot temperatures, but an influx of higher relative humidity air and thus potential impacts from the heat index. Something that we would have to fine tune in the higher forecast as we get closer to the start of the event. ...previous forecast discussion from early afternoon... It`s a rare day when downtown San Diego clears out four hours before it does in San Bernardino, but that`s what happened today. The entire coast has cleared out quite well. Our deep marine layer will become more shallow and the coastal clouds less extensive tonight into Thursday as a low pressure trough currently overhead will gradually retreat as a high pressure ridge expands over the next few days. The marine layer will respond by retreating as well, with successively less extensive coastal clouds each night and morning. A big warming trend across the entire region is coming and will bring hazardous heat levels by Sunday, except near the coast. Guidance shows the core of the high pressure ridge over the Southwest to be as strong as we ever see it during any given summer in this part of the world. So I guess it`s fitting summer officially starts on Monday, what should be the hottest day of our heat wave. The main message of our Excessive Heat Watch is to get ready for the heat particularly away from the coast Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will exceed 100 in most valleys and all deserts, even exceeding 115 in the lower deserts. The expansive high pressure ridge is shown by guidance to back off just a bit around the middle of next week. If that happens, it will allow the marine layer to reassert itself a little, but far inland areas will not cool much. && .AVIATION... 160330Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN013-018 tops 022 at the coast spreading 10-20 miles inland through 14Z. Areas of vis 3-5SM BR HZ in the western valleys and Inland Empire between 12-17Z including KONT. The stratus will retreat back to the coast through 17z Thursday. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Thursday. Gusty west winds 25-35 KT each afternoon and evening through Friday on desert mountain slopes, through the San Gorgonio Pass and into the northern Coachella Valley. && .MARINE... 830 PM...Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 kts over the Outer Waters tonight, decreasing early Thursday morning. Wind increasing again Thursday afternoon and evening. No hazardous marine weather is expected Friday through Sunday. && .BEACHES... 830 PM...A 4-foot, 17-20 second southerly swell will continue through Thursday, bringing elevated surf to local beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Orange County for surf of 5 to 7 ft with occasional sets to 9 ft. Strong rip currents. In San Diego County the surf won`t be quite as high, so a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for surf of 3 to 6 feet, locally reaching 7 feet at times. Strong longshore currents at the beaches. The swell and surf will gradually lower Friday through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts- San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JMB/MM AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Moede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 902 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will bring unseasonably cool and unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week. Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow will be possible late Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to warm up Friday and over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Showers continue over Shasta County and areas to the north this evening. The latest HRRR keeps some activity over Shasta County through the night but gradually moves the activity eastward. Some activity will move over the Lassen Park area around midnight but amounts for the overnight hours look light. snow levels in that area will may lower to between 5500 and 6500 feet by morning but in general around an inch or less is expected. As the trough deepens on Thursday a stronger and wetter wave will move inland. The models are mixed on where the wave and associated rain will make rainfall. The NAM moves it through Lake County and northeast up through Lassen Park/Plumas County. The HRRR brings the wave in a little further south into the Bay Area during the morning hours. The GFS is closer to the HRRR in where it will bring that wave inland but is a little more bullish in bringing more rain inland into the valley and into the Sierra Nevada from around I-80 northward. This wave looks to bring the most amount of snow to the Lassen Park area but as time goes on snow levels will rise from the afternoon through the night. Higher elevations in Lassen Park could see some significant snowfall. Further south snow levels look to be above pass levels and amounts less than 2 inches. Some steady rain looks possible over the valley during the day where the wave ends up moving onshore. On Friday the trough remains over the area with some slight chances of showers or thunderstorms over the north end of the valley and surrounding mountains continuing. It will take until Saturday before chances of precipitation over the interior end and the start of the warming trend begins. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday) The extended forecast will be hot and dry weather for interior NorCal as a large high pressure system strengthens into the western U.S. Daytime highs will start out a few degrees above normal on Sunday then climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Significantly strong winds are not expected but may become locally breezy at times as weak disturbances pivot through upper level southwest flow. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours except possible MVFR/IFR conditions in showers or thunderstorms northern mountains and northern Sacramento valley late this evening into Thursday. Breezy southerly winds with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the delta and over Sierra Cascades. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 401 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure over the Great lakes will track southeast to the North Carolina coast by Friday. High pressure builds in from the north for the weekend and the start of the new week. A cold front approaches on Tuesday and passes late in the day. High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Main area of PCPN over Northern NJ and NE PA trying to work east towards the NY Metro as of 07Z. Mid level isentropic lift is the forcing mechanism. Based on the latest HRRR and RAP, along with the 00Z deterministic model runs, thinking very little in the way of PCPN. Will thus continue with the sprinkles for the Morning after 12Z. Until then, light RA likely for 1 or 2 hundredths. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy day with late clearing from the east to west. Temps are close to the GFS MOS (the warmer solution) which appears to account for the late clearing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... NW flow continues with the short wave tracking across VA to Cape Hatteras by Friday afternoon. Dry through the period with partly cloudy skies and a light southeast wind on Friday. Blended MOS was used which had little spread for this period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NWP models are in good agreement into Sat...then differences with a potential cutoff low over the Western Atlantic begin to take shape with lower confidence in the forecast thereafter. Upper trough axis progged to be east of the area Fri night with an extension of a strengthening upper level ridge over the Southwestern US building across the country and into the Northeast for at least the first half of the weekend...possibly into early next week. This deep layered ridge will raise H5 heights around 588 dam Sun and Mon with the warmest H85 temps around 17C on Mon. This should be the warmest day of the week yielding highs in the mid to upper 80s across inland locations. A SW flow will keep temps closer to the 80 degree mark at the coast. Heights begin to fall Tue as the center of the strong high over the Southwest shifts west and a longwave trough over central Canada drops into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The potential fly in the long term forecast ointment is a cutoff low developing somewhere over the Western Atlantic on Sun. Many of the 15/12z ECENS members show this development...although there is very high spread in where. WPC notes that only 7 ECENS members and 2 Canadian members continue to hold on to the closed low soln between 75-80W lon. Deterministic GFS/EC/GEM/NAM also have large differences at 84hrs which continue into early next week. Have a schc pops for sun aftn/sun night associated with this feature...then a kicker trough approaching from the Great Lakes will send it on its way out to sea. A cold front moves across on Tue bringing the chance of showers/tstms mainly during the aftn/eve. Upper trough axis passing through on wed may trigger some isold showers on Wed. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak area of low pressure passes south of the region early this morning. High pressure then starts to build over the area from the north this afternoon into tonight. Light to locally moderate rain for nyc/nj metro terminals through 12-14z...with low prob for mvfr cigs between 12z and 16z. Otherwise...vfr with just sprinkles through late morning. Light wind this morning with weak s/se sea breezes developing this afternoon for most terminals. Winds become light and variable this evening. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. S seabreeze development expected between 16z and 18z. KLGA TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. S seabreeze development expected between 17z and 19z. KEWR TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. SE seabreeze development expected between 16z and 18z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Rain showers could linger till 15z...with low prob of mvfr cigs btwn 12 and 16z. SSe seabreeze development expected between 16z and 18z. KHPN TAF Comments: S/SE seabreeze development expected between 17z and 19z. low prob for rain showers wetting runways this morning. KISP TAF Comments: S/SE seabreeze development expected between 16z and 18z. low prob for rain showers wetting runways this morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Friday THROUGH MONDAY... .Late Tonight-Fri...VFR with light easterly winds. .Sat-Mon...VFR with light southwest flow. && .MARINE... Tranquil weather today. light sea breezes develop along the coasts this afternoon. Low pressure passes well southwest of the waters on Friday as high pressure starts to build into the region for the weekend. Thus sub- SCA conditions through the weekend. Tranquil conditions on the waters until early next week with the gradient tightening Tue as SW flow increases ahead of a cold front. SCA conds are possible...especially on the ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... The next chance for rain is Tuesday of next week with the approach and passage of a cold front. No hydrologic concerns at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...NV MARINE...24/Tongue HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 MCV continues to slowly move eastward across the southern portion of the forecast area. Light showers continue, as do strong winds on the north side of the low where dissipating/evaporating showers are likely contributing to the broad area of 30-45mph wind gusts on the north side of the low. This has also kept temperatures up in the 80s in areas where the winds are occurring. Expect this to move off to the east over the next several hours. Will leave some morning cloud cover and likely some residual surface boundaries over the area, but with lack of a lifting mechanism to break the cap, and an upper ridge moving overhead by mid afternoon, will keep forecast dry at this time. High temperatures expected to reach upper 90s east to near 102 out west, and the heat advisory continues. Overnight lows also look to stay warm in the middle 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 Models continue to show at least minor potential for convection to impact the area Friday into Saturday. Appears overnight convection tonight along the weak boundary will remain to the northeast, though can`t rule out outflow pushing southwest into the area late in the night. More likely scenario for precip is development occurring to the northwest along inverted trough axis where cap will be the weakest. This activity could reach the area in the late afternoon -- when peak heating/heat index values would be anticipated. Along with slight low level cooling and models` rather high afternoon dewpoint bias in recent days, have decided to keep the Watch going for Friday. Models are also similar with a weak PV anomaly swinging southeast around the ridge into eastern Kansas Friday night and could aid in convection persisting on through the area, perhaps into Saturday. Bumped up pops a bit based on more consistent precip signal. Some guidance keeps clouds rather persistent through the day Saturday and could provide a break in the excessive heat, but most guidance would push apparent temps back to near Advisory levels, close enough to keep the Watch going. South winds should return Sunday as the eastern surface ridge moves off which brings higher temperature and dewpoint potential, though just how much of either is uncertain. Monday could bring another hot day as the weak cold front nears but much too little confidence to extend the Watch. Most widespread precip potential still comes Monday night into Tuesday night as the front settles in. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 VFR prevails through forecast period with light southerly winds. Will continue to monitor showers and thunder south of KTOP/KFOE. All guidance keeps this activity away from developing. May peak near 10 kts in the late afternoon but otherwise some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ008>012-020>024-034. Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056- 058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Prieto
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 308 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Main concern continues to be hot and humid conditions for the next few days, as mid level heights increase, as a large ridge builds across the plains. As this ridge builds into the area, south- southwest flow will lead to very warm temperatures across the region for Today-Fri and possibly into Sat. Could see most of Central and South Central KS make the century mark today, with KSLN and KRSL possibly breaking record high temps (both 104 degrees). The summer time temps arent the only issue, as surface dewpoints are expected to remain in the low-mid 70s for areas east of I-135, this will lead to heat index values climbing into the 107 to 110 range for this afternoon (possibly into Fri as well). A Heat advisory has already been issued for today for this dangerous combination of heat/humidity for most of the region. Plan on extending the heat advisory into Fri as well, but think the heat index values will be slightly lower in the 103-106 range. also plan on keeping the excessive heat watch in effect for the weekend, as the extended heat tends to build up, which may lead to an excessive heat warning needed for the weekend. Not expecting a repeat of yesterday evenings convection, as mid level temps will continue to increase across the forecast area, with 700h temps climbing to +15-16. The warm temps aloft will effectively cap off any convection from developing. Latest NamNest (which handled convection placement quite well yesterday) shows a weak convergence area to the northeast of the forecast area, with main axis of 180-200% precipitable water values located over ern Neb into NE KS. This looks like the more favorable area for diurnally driven isolated storms to erupt this afternoon given the max temps forecast. Plan on keeping Fri-Sun mostly dry for now as the ridge remains across the area. Could see a few spurious/isolated storms develop on Fri afternoon with the hot temperatures and high PWAT values across the area. So could see an isolated storm mention added with later forecasts. There is some model indications of some sort of complex of storms may try to develop across NW MO on Friday night, and possibly track south into SE KS by Sat morning. So will insert a slight pop for SE KS for this chance. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 The hot and dry weather pattern will continue through the end of weekend as models show the upper level ridging remaining quite pronounced across the region. The upper level ridge looks to flatten out and tighten the thermal/height gradient aloft across the northern plains for the beginning of the week (Monday/Tuesday). This pattern will push a frontal boundary slowly southward across Nebraska into northern Kansas for early next week, which will bring some relief from the very warm temperatures. Slow movement of this front across the area for Mon night into Tue may lead to part of the extended becoming more active when it comes to convection and possibly convective storm complexes across the plains, given the high instability expected to be located along or just south of this boundary. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move slowly southeast across the region overnight. Outflow winds from the northwest will gradually veer around to the east then southeast overnight. VFR conditions expected during the day on Thursday as southerly winds increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 101 75 100 74 / 10 10 10 10 Hutchinson 102 75 100 73 / 10 10 10 10 Newton 101 75 99 74 / 10 10 10 10 ElDorado 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 99 76 99 74 / 10 10 10 10 Russell 104 71 103 71 / 10 10 10 10 Great Bend 104 72 102 71 / 10 10 10 10 Salina 104 76 103 74 / 10 10 10 20 McPherson 103 75 100 74 / 10 10 10 10 Coffeyville 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 Chanute 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 20 Iola 96 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 20 Parsons-KPPF 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ048>053-067>072-082- 083-091>096-098>100. Excessive Heat Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ033. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...CDJ
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 300 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...UPDATE TO LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above 100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night. In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting the heat advisory. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms across central Kansas late Friday afternoon and evening as medium range models indicate a weak perturbation cycling east-southeast across the axis of an upper level ridge building northeast across the Central Plains. While this occurs, surface low pressure just lee of the Rockies is projected to become more organized as it shifts eastward into extreme western Kansas. With surface high pressure remaining locked in across the Great Lakes, this will set up a band of increased convergence across the plains of eastern Nebraska and portions of northern Kansas. Considering the ample amount of moisture/instability across the region, a few isolated thunderstorms may develop across central Kansas late Friday afternoon as capping weakens with chances possible through late Friday evening. However, the potential for severe weather will remain hindered by a fairly weak flow aloft. A dry and hot weather pattern is then expected to persist through the weekend as an upper level high setting up across the Desert Southwest builds northeast across the Western High Plains. High temperatures will likely reach near 100F again Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with little change expected to the general air mass across the high plains of western Kansas through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side trough strengthens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 100 69 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 100 63 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 100 62 100 63 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 100 66 102 66 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 102 69 103 70 / 10 10 10 10 P28 102 73 103 73 / 10 10 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1250 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above 100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night. In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting the heat advisory. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The medium range models show the upper level ridge continuing to build over the CONUS through the weekend into the first part of next week. This will keep the region in a heat wave with high temperatures up around 100 degrees through Monday. The 00z and 12z runs of the GFS as well as the 12z ECMWF are both hinting at a westward retrogression of the upper ridge around next Tuesday with west northwest flow aloft developing over the central Plains. Still a ways out but if this does develop we should see a frontal boundary pushing perhaps as far south as Oklahoma which would bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to western Kansas in the upslope flow regime north of the front. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side trough strengthens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 69 100 69 101 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 66 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 65 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 67 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 69 102 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 P28 70 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1250 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 ...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Fairly dry and hot conditions can be expected today as short range models indicate an amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward across the Central Plains during the period. Although ample moisture will be present across central and portions of southwest Kansas resulting in significant instability, a weak flow aloft and drier air moving into western Kansas behind an advancing dryline across southwest Kansas will hinder thunderstorm chances late this afternoon as capping weakens. Hot temperatures can be expected again today as low level southerlies reinforce the much warmer air mass across western Kansas with H85 temperatures around to a little above 30C. Look for highs to reach near to a little above 100F this afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 60s(F) and the lower 70s(F) for lows Thursday night. In regards to the heat advisory for south central Kansas, plenty of moisture will pool ahead of the aforementioned dryline, likely pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 60s(F) to near 70F in central Kansas. As temperatures climb near 100F, heat indices upward of 105F will be possible across the area in question warranting the heat advisory. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The medium range models show the upper level ridge continuing to build over the CONUS through the weekend into the first part of next week. This will keep the region in a heat wave with high temperatures up around 100 degrees through Monday. The 00z and 12z runs of the GFS as well as the 12z ECMWF are both hinting at a westward retrogression of the upper ridge around next Tuesday with west northwest flow aloft developing over the central Plains. Still a ways out but if this does develop we should see a frontal boundary pushing perhaps as far south as Oklahoma which would bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to western Kansas in the upslope flow regime north of the front. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Winds will then become more southerly while increasing 15 to 25kt late Thursday afternoon as the lee side trough strengthens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 69 100 69 101 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 66 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 65 100 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 67 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 69 102 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 P28 70 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1121 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across the Central US with a long fetch of drier air advecting from Mexico across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. There is a weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a weak ripple in the 500mb height field. Several surface troughs are in place within the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest Nebraska and a second orientated near Hays. Near both of these features Cu fields have develop, but the more impressive updrafts near the convergence zone near a Hays also correlated with approximate location of upper level shortwave trough. This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values with further drops in Td`s expected. Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening. Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east, however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today (if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure throughout the period. Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region. On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before advancing again on Saturday. The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure over the High Plains. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold front sags south towards the area. The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100 degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front approaches the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1118 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016 VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will be gusty for a part of the overnight hours...the result of outflow boundaries originating from thunderstorms in central and eastern Kansas. They will subside a bit around sunrise before increasing again from the southwest Thursday morning with deep mixing. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1139 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION... Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions and anticipate VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period after 15z. The only exception could be at KMCB and KHUM where patchy light fog is possible around sunrise. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon with high probability to the east near KGPT and less likely to the west around KBTR. MEFFER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ SYNOPSIS... Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to northeast and central Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow was present across the south half of Louisiana and Southern Mississippi this afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings were generally in the mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Warm temperatures along with these dewpoint readings have pushed heat index values up to 105 area wide...up to 108 heat index value in the River Parishes this afternoon. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Alabama to north central Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to the Dakotas. In addition, vigorous wave was noted in the northern stream over Northern Minnesota. Precipitable water field showed pooling along the wave axis from central Georgia to Southeast Louisiana coastal waters with 2 to 2.2 inches...1.8 to 1.6 inches over the forecast area to southwest Louisiana. 18 discussion... Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through Thursday maintaining a weakness across the northeast Gulf through Friday. This will allow the deep moisture to shift east as well and rain chances will decrease to below norms through Friday. Short wave in the northern stream will dive southeast and allow the ridge to amplify over the Plains and Missouri Valley Thursday and Friday. Low level moisture will remain intact as increased heights will support afternoon highs in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Short range models and model blends continue to push dewpoints down to the lower 70s for both days...resulting in heat index values approaching 105. If dewpoint readings remain in the upper 70s tonight, a Heat Advisory will likely be issued for part of the forecast area Thursday through Friday. As the short wave in the northern stream moves off the East Coast...the ridge axis will become west/east and likely develop into a large anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains. The associated axis of the short wave will push across the forecast area around the large upper high Saturday creating an increase in rain chances for the area Friday night and Saturday. Some of these storms could by strong with movement from northeast to southwest and contain strong gusty winds. With the broad anti- cyclonic circulation expanding east...rain chances will decrease especially across the north half zones next week but will maintain higher rain chances south half zones. MARINE... Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week until Saturday when winds shift to the east through Monday. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection should be less widespread through Friday than what has occurred the last few days. Surface high will build over the Carolinas to the Mid South creating the moderate east flow over the north gulf late Saturday through Monday. Seas are expected to build up to 6 well offshore Saturday night and Sunday. 18 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 95 75 97 / 10 20 10 10 BTR 74 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 ASD 77 94 77 97 / 20 30 20 10 MSY 78 93 78 95 / 20 20 10 10 GPT 78 93 78 95 / 20 30 20 20 PQL 77 92 77 95 / 20 30 30 10 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1137 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION...Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold over the region with clear to mostly clear skies prevailing. Exception to this will be a possibility of another round of light late night fog at AEX, along with MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings developing. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds will continue. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... Current forecast on target tonight, with only minor adjustments to hourly grids to better fit current obs/trends. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area. VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally remain light from the southwest. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ UPDATE... Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon through early evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 77 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1112 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION...Fair weather high pressure will continue to hold over the region with clear to mostly skies prevailing. Exception to this will be a possibility of another round of light late night fog at AEX, along with MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings developing. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds will continue. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... Current forecast on target tonight, with only minor adjustments to hourly grids to better fit current obs/trends. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area. VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally remain light from the southwest. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ UPDATE... Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon through early evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 77 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1015 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Current forecast on target tonight, with only minor adjustments to hourly grids to better fit current obs/trends. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area. VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally remain light from the southwest. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ UPDATE... Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon through early evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 78 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 77 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... For the 10 PM update made a few minor changes to the sky cover overnight and placed a range for the afternoon heat index values. No other significant changes. /06/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail throughout much of the 00Z TAF pd. MVFR stratus/patchy fog will be possible around sunrise at all sites, but any restrictions will mix out by mid morning. Otherwise, light sly winds overnight will increase to between 8 and 12 kts after sunrise. /12/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2 pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70 dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating. Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E TX. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu. As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying it out until 7 pm Fri evng. There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc front to move into our region late Friday Night from the northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps. For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by mid week next week. Prelims to follow...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 73 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10 TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 75 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 06/12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 655 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail throughout much of the 00Z TAF pd. MVFR stratus/patchy fog will be possible around sunrise at all sites, but any restrictions will mix out by mid morning. Otherwise, light sly winds overnight will increase to between 8 and 12 kts after sunrise. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2 pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70 dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating. Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E TX. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu. As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying it out until 7 pm Fri evng. There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc front to move into our region late Friday Night from the northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps. For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by mid week next week. Prelims to follow...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 72 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10 TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 655 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail throughout much of the 00Z TAF pd. MVFR stratus/patchy fog will be possible around sunrise at all sites, but any restrictions will mix out by mid morning. Otherwise, light sly winds overnight will increase to between 8 and 12 kts after sunrise. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2 pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70 dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating. Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E TX. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the TX Hill Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu. As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying it out until 7 pm Fri evng. There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc front to move into our region late Friday Night from the northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps. For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by mid week next week. Prelims to follow...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 72 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10 TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 558 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION...Dry high pressure now well established over the area. VFR with clear skies can be expected overnight, and nothing more than some scattered fair weather cu Thursday. Winds will generally remain light from the southwest. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ UPDATE... Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon through early evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .UPDATE... Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon through early evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...K. KUYPER/26
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 523 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .UPDATE... Locations across the CWA approached or briefly met Heat Advisory criteria today. Daytime highs tomorrow look to be slightly warmer with similar dewpoints which should result in heat indices across a larger portion of the area approaching 108-110 degrees. Therefore, went ahead and issued Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon through early evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033- 041>045-052>055-073-074. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...K. KUYPER/26
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 422 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... The ridge aloft has built over the region and this has shut down the precip that the region has been experiencing over the last week or so. With mostly sunny skies today temps to climb into the lwr 90s most lctns w/ the heat index hovering from 103 to 108. The heat is expected to gradually break through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows tonight expected to range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 down along the coast. Winds will be from the southeast around the backside of the high pressure that is ridging across the northern gulf. The same weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days and into the weekend. Which will see hot and muggy conditions continuing. May begin to see a slight break on Saturday into Sunday and Monday as showers will be developing. This will hold temps back a degree or two. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 74 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 92 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 92 76 94 77 / 10 10 10 0 BPT 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ K. Kuyper
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 403 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Latest surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to northeast and central Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow was present across the south half of Louisiana and Southern Mississippi this afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings were generally in the mid 70s over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Warm temperatures along with these dewpoint readings have pushed heat index values up to 105 area wide...up to 108 heat index value in the River Parishes this afternoon. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave from Alabama to north central Gulf and ridge axis from Texas to the Dakotas. In addition, vigorous wave was noted in the northern stream over Northern Minnesota. Precipitable water field showed pooling along the wave axis from central Georgia to Southeast Louisiana coastal waters with 2 to 2.2 inches...1.8 to 1.6 inches over the forecast area to southwest Louisiana. 18 && .discussion... Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through Thursday maintaining a weakness across the northeast Gulf through Friday. This will allow the deep moisture to shift east as well and rain chances will decrease to below norms through Friday. Short wave in the northern stream will dive southeast and allow the ridge to amplify over the Plains and Missouri Valley Thursday and Friday. Low level moisture will remain intact as increased heights will support afternoon highs in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Short range models and model blends continue to push dewpoints down to the lower 70s for both days...resulting in heat index values approaching 105. If dewpoint readings remain in the upper 70s tonight, a Heat Advisory will likely be issued for part of the forecast area Thursday through Friday. As the short wave in the northern stream moves off the East Coast...the ridge axis will become west/east and likely develop into a large anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains. The associated axis of the short wave will push across the forecast area around the large upper high Saturday creating an increase in rain chances for the area Friday night and Saturday. Some of these storms could by strong with movement from northeast to southwest and contain strong gusty winds. With the broad anti- cyclonic circulation expanding east...rain chances will decrease especially across the north half zones next week but will maintain higher rain chances south half zones. && .AVIATION... Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions and anticipate VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period after 15z. Threat of convection remains this afternoon through this evening. A few patches of fog with restriction down 3 miles at times at KMCB and KHUM Thursday morning around 11z but should be short in duration. && .MARINE... Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week until Saturday when winds shift to the east through Monday. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection should be less widespread through Friday than what has occurred the last few days. Surface high will build over the Carolinas to the Mid South creating the moderate east flow over the north gulf late Saturday through Monday. Seas are expected to build up to 6 well offshore Saturday night and Sunday. 18 && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 95 75 97 / 10 20 10 10 BTR 74 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 ASD 77 94 77 97 / 20 30 20 10 MSY 78 93 78 95 / 20 20 10 10 GPT 78 93 78 95 / 20 30 20 20 PQL 77 92 77 95 / 20 30 30 10 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 235 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... While cu field has held back sfc temps somewhat today through 2 pm...humidity values have remained rather impressive with mid 70 dewpoints across our entire region at the time of peak heating. Heat index temps are currently near 100 degrees across the entire four state region attm with 105 reached earlier in SHV and values near 105 across several areas in N La and S Ar as well as Deep E Tx. The massive upper ridge axis centered across the Tx Hill Country this aftn will expand north and east during the day Thu. As a result...we should see less of a cu field around on Thu which should result in even warmer sfc temps but that may allow dewpoints to fall slightly for Thu. Nevertheless...heat index values will again top out near 105 degrees during peak heating Thu aftn with perhaps our warmest day coming on Friday with mid to upper 90 ambient temps expected. For this reason...have added another day to the Heat Advisory with this package...now carrying it out until 7 pm Fri Evng. There is some hope by the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge retrogrades back to the west across the Four Corners region of the country as an upper level trough drops out of the Great Lakes into the Tenn Valley late Friday Night through Saturday. The proximity of the trough axis will result in a weak backdoor sfc front to move into our region late Friday Night from the northeast. Ahead of the front...we will see good compressional warming across our western zones for Sat such that additional Heat Advisories may become necessary across our western zones but we should get a break from the humidity across our ne zones Sat Aftn. Have also introduced a slight chance of tstms into our region for Sat given the forcing of the front. Kept slight chance pops going for Father`s Day across our southern half as the weak backdoor front will begin to return back northward perhaps sparking a stray thunderstorm but Sunday should be the end of our Advisories given the cooler fcst 8h temps. For the middle part of next week...temperatures begin to rise once again as a 600dam ridge remains centered across the Four Corners region of the country with a strong ridge axis extending south and east across the heart of our region. This will result in virtually no rain chances and perhaps a return to heat advisory criteria by mid week next week. Prelims to follow...13. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1241 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ AVIATION... MVFR/VFR conditions across all terminal sites this afternoon with gusty winds near the deep east Texas terminals. Terminals east of KLFK will see winds between 5 to 10 kts but higher gusts are possible with the dissipation of clouds from east to west. We introduced patchy fog and low clouds around 16/10Z. The fog will lift around 16/15Z on Thursday across all terminal sites. /21/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 72 94 72 96 / 10 0 0 10 TXK 74 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 ELD 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 10 TYR 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 21/13
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1241 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION... MVFR/VFR conditions across all terminal sites this afternoon with gusty winds near the deep east Texas terminals. Terminals east of KLFK will see winds between 5 to 10 kts but higher gusts are possible with the dissipation of clouds from east to west. We introduced patchy fog and low clouds around 16/10Z. The fog will lift around 16/15Z on Thursday across all terminal sites. /21/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 954 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ UPDATE... After taking a look at current temps running a degree or two ahead of temperatures this time on Tuesday...not to mention dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees as of 15z this morning across our southern zones...decided to add our remaining counties and parishes in Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana to our current Heat Advisory which is in effect until 00z Fri. Large cu field across the region this morning will dissipate some this afternoon...allowing ambient temperatures to reach expected forecast max temps later in the day. Slight chance pops for the remainder of the morning were removed as cu field looks pretty flat on vis imagery this morning across our extreme northern zones. Latest 12z guidance suggests that any precip should stay to our north and east and while we cannot rule out a very isolated shower or storm...it is not worth the merit in the grid package for the remainder of the day. Other changes included a slight adjustment to RH/Dewpt grids to mimic current and expected changes with the expansion of the Heat Advisory. Update already sent...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 0 DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 10 10 0 0 TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 13/21
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period, however haze or thin BR may lower vis to around 6sm at sunrise. Also, a brief period of mvfr ceilings may occur Thursday morning as the cu field develops. Winds will be South to SW through the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 958 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ UPDATE... Upper level ridge has become established with afternoon temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 104 to 108 degrees. This will continue through the afternoon hours. Temps xcpd the fall below 90 drg the eve hrs. Next few days will just be a repeat of tdy. Nxt chc for shwrs looks to be ovr the wknd. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... 15/12Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise, with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches. The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity. Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and Friday as the ridge aloft builds in. Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category. The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface "cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced again on Saturday and increased into Sunday. Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to the east. Rua MARINE... A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 78 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 LFT 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 77 93 76 93 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...05
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 958 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .UPDATE... Upper level ridge has become established with afternoon temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 104 to 108 degrees. This will continue through the afternoon hours. Temps xcpd the fall below 90 drg the eve hrs. Next few days will just be a repeat of tdy. Nxt chc for shwrs looks to be ovr the wknd. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... 15/12Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise, with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches. The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity. Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and Friday as the ridge aloft builds in. Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category. The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface "cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced again on Saturday and increased into Sunday. Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to the east. Rua MARINE... A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0 BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...19
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 954 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .UPDATE... After taking a look at current temps running a degree or two ahead of temperatures this time on Tuesday...not to mention dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees as of 15z this morning across our southern zones...decided to add our remaining counties and parishes in Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana to our current Heat Advisory which is in effect until 00z Fri. Large cu field across the region this morning will dissipate some this afternoon...allowing ambient temperatures to reach expected forecast max temps later in the day. Slight chance pops for the remainder of the morning were removed as cu field looks pretty flat on vis imagery this morning across our extreme northern zones. Latest 12z guidance suggests that any precip should stay to our north and east and while we cannot rule out a very isolated shower or storm...it is not worth the merit in the grid package for the remainder of the day. Other changes included a slight adjustment to RH/Dewpt grids to mimic current and expected changes with the expansion of the Heat Advisory. Update already sent...13. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 752 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex...SCTVBKN IFR/MVFR with some SCT cirrus this morning for another couple of hours before scattering fully. Our sfc winds will be S/SW 5-10KTS and SW flow of 10-25KTS extends up to 10kft before veering to W/NW 15-35KTS. Little change in store with upper ridge building over E TX and sinking air spreading in over much of the area. Decreasing moisture through evaporation will further lessen daybreak issues in the day to come. Outlook for change with more precip is a fropa this weekend. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 24/13
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 825 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... The sounding this morning has still come in with PW well above average at 2.15 inches and ample instability with mixed layer CAPE at 2100 J/KG. Still expect some storms to fire today along local boundaries and especially to the east. Indications of subsidence from the building ridge are beginning to show up a bit with a broad low level warm layer to 750 mb. Winds are westerly from the sfc to 700 mb then become northerly aloft from the downstream side of the upper level ridge axis. Krautmann && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ SHORT TERM... Should see a fairly tight columnal moisture gradient develop today from west to east. The Pearl River should be the line where sh/ts will be capable of developing in the deeper moisture to the east. Dry air through most of the column will keep most activity down for areas west of the Pearl River. Although a few strongest buoyant areas capable of breaking the two inversion caps will be possible which is the reason for the 20% over the western majority of the area. The caps strengthen as one moves westward. This should continue to be the case for the most part through Friday. The problem with this will be heat. Temps will rise appreciably into the mid 90s. This will couple with the unventilated boundary layer`s moisture left over from the previous rainfall to cause heat indices to soar into the 100s. The word stifling comes to mind. LONG TERM... The back door cold front will be moving rapidly toward the area by Frinight into Saturday. The front should move through the area Saturday shifting winds from westerly to easterly at about 10-15 mph and dropping dp temps down from the mid 70s to the mid 60s. This may not sound like much but it will be felt. And it will be a nice change from the extremely moist hot temps we will be experiencing. The strong forcing associated with moving the front through the area will move through the FL panhandle and into the gulf first. Then the same forcing begins to move west and focuses more toward this area. The front looks to be almost through the area by the time the strongest forcing transitions to our area. This would mean that severe weather would be confined to the gulf coastal waters instead of over land areas. But it is way too soon to show that scenario and will keep current thinking of the possibility of severe thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday evening moving from east to west. This event will be further refined as time nears. This synoptic pattern should also keep any tropical activity in the gulf away from this area for now. AVIATION... Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions. Threat of low ceilings and/or visibilities is somewhat lower this morning. May see a few spots of MVFR ceilings for a time around sunrise, but the only terminal that may see IFR conditions would be MCB. Even there, threat is not high enough to carry as a prevailing condition. Any terminals experiencing MVFR or IFR conditions this morning should see improvement to VFR by 15z. Anticipate VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period after 15z. Threat of convection is lower today than it has been for several days. At present, do not anticipate carrying mention of thunder in any of the terminals today. Most likely location for convection would be along the Mississippi coast at GPT. May consider a VCTS at GPT for a few hours in the afternoon for the 12z TAF package, but that would likely be the only terminal. 35 MARINE... Should see primarily southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week until Saturday when winds shift to northwest briefly before becoming onshore again on Sunday. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3- 4 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection should be less widespread through Friday than what has occurred the last few days. Best timing for convection will be daybreak through the mid-morning hours before dissipating. Any storms could produce localized gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts. 35 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 BTR 92 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 ASD 92 74 93 76 / 20 20 30 20 MSY 90 77 92 78 / 20 20 30 10 GPT 90 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20 PQL 90 74 92 75 / 40 20 30 30 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 752 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex...SCTVBKN IFR/MVFR with some SCT cirrus this morning for another couple of hours before scattering fully. Our sfc winds will be S/SW 5-10KTS and SW flow of 10-25KTS extends up to 10kft before veering to W/NW 15-35KTS. Little change in store with upper ridge building over E TX and sinking air spreading in over much of the area. Decreasing moisture through evaporation will further lessen daybreak issues in the day to come. Outlook for change with more precip is a fropa this weekend. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days, courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS. However, an isolated thunderstorm has developed in south central OK and the NAM solution exhibits additional development that could move across the extreme Northern zones later this morning, in association with a mid-level theta-e axis. If this precip does indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose into the Four-State region. Model solutions hint at further amplification extending to near the Great Lakes Region by late this week. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming trend throughout the remainder of this week. The trend will be gradual as recent heavy rainfall for some locales still needs to overcome the moist grounds/soils, but MOS guidance high temps of middle to upper 90s by weeks end is certainly plausible, given no additional substantial rainfall is expected in the near term. Warm days followed by warm nights /70s/ will raise the heat index to/slightly above 105 F for most of the CWA today through tomorrow. As such, the Heat Advisory will continue and will be valid from noon today through 7 pm CDT tomorrow for Southeast OK, Southwest AR, much of Northeast TX and portions of North LA along and North of the Interstate 20 corridor. With similar heat indices on Friday, we may need to reevaluate and perhaps an extension of the advisory may be needed. Furthermore, Natchitoches may have had a heat index of 109 F yesterday, but that site is known to run a little bit warm hence why the Heat Advisory does not include Natchitoches Parish. Nonetheless, we will remain vigilant and see how trends go today at the aforementioned location. By late week/early the weekend the center of the UA ridge will have retrograded to the Desert SW and a general weakness along the Eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with a cold frontal passage still progged to arrive on Saturday, may result in slight chances of showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances may still linger across the Southern zones on Sunday thanks to a waning UA low retrograding to near the region. Thereafter, model solutions differ a bit wrt to the evolution of the UA ridge as it is shown to either retrograde farther to the Southwest CONUS by Wednesday of next week, thus allowing UA disturbances to impinge on the region, or the ridge will expand back East to the region, which will keep the area dry. This forecast package will reflect a dry forecast beyond the weekend until later model solutions show better consistency. The above normal warmth for this week will cool slightly into the lower 90s by next week, whilst a drier airmass invades the region which will allow for lowered heat indices. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10 TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 24/29
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... 15/12Z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION... Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise, with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches. The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity. Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and Friday as the ridge aloft builds in. Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category. The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface "cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced again on Saturday and increased into Sunday. Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to the east. Rua MARINE... A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0 BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 651 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... 15/12Z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION... Latest stlt images show a mix of low and high clouds over the region with some BKN/OVC MVFR cigs acrs cntl LA, in addition to some fog-related vsby restrictions as low as IFR at times. Expect clouds to scatter out and fog to lift acrs cntl LA after sunrise, with sctd CU/CI areawide through the remainder of the day. High pres building aloft will limit shower development today. S to SW sfc winds will strengthen to around 10 kt this morning with gusts to near 20 kt at times during the aftn. VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight with winds diminishing after sunset. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches. The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity. Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and Friday as the ridge aloft builds in. Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category. The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface "cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced again on Saturday and increased into Sunday. Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to the east. Rua MARINE... A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0 BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 350 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .SHORT TERM... Should see a fairly tight columnal moisture gradient develop today from west to east. The Pearl River should be the line where sh/ts will be capable of developing in the deeper moisture to the east. Dry air through most of the column will keep most activity down for areas west of the Pearl River. Although a few strongest buoyant areas capable of breaking the two inversion caps will be possible which is the reason for the 20% over the western majority of the area. The caps strengthen as one moves westward. This should continue to be the case for the most part through Friday. The problem with this will be heat. Temps will rise appreciably into the mid 90s. This will couple with the unventilated boundary layer`s moisture left over from the previous rainfall to cause heat indices to soar into the 100s. The word stifling comes to mind. .LONG TERM... The back door cold front will be moving rapidly toward the area by Frinight into Saturday. The front should move through the area Saturday shifting winds from westerly to easterly at about 10-15 mph and dropping dp temps down from the mid 70s to the mid 60s. This may not sound like much but it will be felt. And it will be a nice change from the extremely moist hot temps we will be experiencing. The strong forcing associated with moving the front through the area will move through the FL panhandle and into the gulf first. Then the same forcing begins to move west and focuses more toward this area. The front looks to be almost through the area by the time the strongest forcing transitions to our area. This would mean that severe weather would be confined to the gulf coastal waters instead of over land areas. But it is way too soon to show that scenario and will keep current thinking of the possibility of severe thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday evening moving from east to west. This event will be further refined as time nears. This synoptic pattern should also keep any tropical activity in the gulf away from this area for now. && .AVIATION... Currently, all terminals with VFR conditions. Threat of low ceilings and/or visibilities is somewhat lower this morning. May see a few spots of MVFR ceilings for a time around sunrise, but the only terminal that may see IFR conditions would be MCB. Even there, threat is not high enough to carry as a prevailing condition. Any terminals experiencing MVFR or IFR conditions this morning should see improvement to VFR by 15z. Anticipate VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period after 15z. Threat of convection is lower today than it has been for several days. At present, do not anticipate carrying mention of thunder in any of the terminals today. Most likely location for convection would be along the Mississippi coast at GPT. May consider a VCTS at GPT for a few hours in the afternoon for the 12z TAF package, but that would likely be the only terminal. 35 && .MARINE... Should see primarily southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week until Saturday when winds shift to northwest briefly before becoming onshore again on Sunday. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3- 4 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern waters, as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection should be less widespread through Friday than what has occurred the last few days. Best timing for convection will be daybreak through the mid-morning hours before dissipating. Any storms could produce localized gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts. 35 && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 BTR 92 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 ASD 92 74 93 76 / 20 20 30 20 MSY 90 77 92 78 / 20 20 30 10 GPT 90 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20 PQL 90 74 92 75 / 40 20 30 30 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days, courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS. However, an isolated thunderstorm has developed in south central OK and the NAM solution exhibits additional development that could move across the extreme Northern zones later this morning, in association with a mid-level theta-e axis. If this precip does indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose into the Four-State region. Model solutions hint at further amplification extending to near the Great Lakes Region by late this week. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming trend throughout the remainder of this week. The trend will be gradual as recent heavy rainfall for some locales still needs to overcome the moist grounds/soils, but MOS guidance high temps of middle to upper 90s by weeks end is certainly plausible, given no additional substantial rainfall is expected in the near term. Warm days followed by warm nights /70s/ will raise the heat index to/slightly above 105 F for most of the CWA today through tomorrow. As such, the Heat Advisory will continue and will be valid from noon today through 7 pm CDT tomorrow for Southeast OK, Southwest AR, much of Northeast TX and portions of North LA along and North of the Interstate 20 corridor. With similar heat indices on Friday, we may need to reevaluate and perhaps an extension of the advisory may be needed. Furthermore, Natchitoches may have had a heat index of 109 F yesterday, but that site is known to run a little bit warm hence why the Heat Advisory does not include Natchitoches Parish. Nonetheless, we will remain vigilant and see how trends go today at the aforementioned location. By late week/early the weekend the center of the UA ridge will have retrograded to the Desert SW and a general weakness along the Eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with a cold frontal passage still progged to arrive on Saturday, may result in slight chances of showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances may still linger across the Southern zones on Sunday thanks to a waning UA low retrograding to near the region. Thereafter, model solutions differ a bit wrt to the evolution of the UA ridge as it is shown to either retrograde farther to the Southwest CONUS by Wednesday of next week, thus allowing UA disturbances to impinge on the region, or the ridge will expand back East to the region, which will keep the area dry. This forecast package will reflect a dry forecast beyond the weekend until later model solutions show better consistency. The above normal warmth for this week will cool slightly into the lower 90s by next week, whilst a drier airmass invades the region which will allow for lowered heat indices. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10 TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 29
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days, courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS. However, an isolated thunderstorm has developed in south central OK and the NAM solution exhibits additional development that could move across the extreme Northern zones later this morning, in association with a mid-level theta-e axis. If this precip does indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose into the Four-State region. Model solutions hint at further amplification extending to near the Great Lakes Region by late this week. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming trend throughout the remainder of this week. The trend will be gradual as recent heavy rainfall for some locales still needs to overcome the moist grounds/soils, but MOS guidance high temps of middle to upper 90s by weeks end is certainly plausible, given no additional substantial rainfall is expected in the near term. Warm days followed by warm nights /70s/ will raise the heat index to/slightly above 105 F for most of the CWA today through tomorrow. As such, the Heat Advisory will continue and will be valid from noon today through 7 pm CDT tomorrow for Southeast OK, Southwest AR, much of Northeast TX and portions of North LA along and North of the Interstate 20 corridor. With similar heat indices on Friday, we may need to reevaluate and perhaps an extension of the advisory may be needed. Furthermore, Natchitoches may have had a heat index of 109 F yesterday, but that site is known to run a little bit warm hence why the Heat Advisory does not include Natchitoches Parish. Nonetheless, we will remain vigilant and see how trends go today at the aforementioned location. By late week/early the weekend the center of the UA ridge will have retrograded to the Desert SW and a general weakness along the Eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with a cold frontal passage still progged to arrive on Saturday, may result in slight chances of showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances may still linger across the Southern zones on Sunday thanks to a waning UA low retrograding to near the region. Thereafter, model solutions differ a bit wrt to the evolution of the UA ridge as it is shown to either retrograde farther to the Southwest CONUS by Wednesday of next week, thus allowing UA disturbances to impinge on the region, or the ridge will expand back East to the region, which will keep the area dry. This forecast package will reflect a dry forecast beyond the weekend until later model solutions show better consistency. The above normal warmth for this week will cool slightly into the lower 90s by next week, whilst a drier airmass invades the region which will allow for lowered heat indices. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10 TXK 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 94 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 29
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 309 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Despite a very muggy air mass, the radar is quiet with so far no nocturnal shower activity developing. The 15/00z upper air sounding from KLCH still showed a rather moist air mass in place with precipitable water values over 1.8 inches, and latest GPS-MET data as of 15/06z still showed values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches. The sounding also showed a larger dewpoint depression in the mid levels, and upper air analysis showed decent height rises at 50H and 70H. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area. Therefore, not looking for much in the way of significant convection through Friday. Will keep minimal pops over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and Vermilion Bay region today, for mainly daytime heating seabreeze convergence isolated activity. Then remove pops for the entire forecast area for Thursday and Friday as the ridge aloft builds in. Winds at the surface will continue off the Gulf of Mexico, and thus low level moisture and high humidity will remain. With the lack of convection, surface temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s easily. This combined with the humidity will make for very muggy conditions. Max Apparent Temperature tool however, keep values from 103F to 107F and just below heat advisory category. The mid/upper level ridge retrogrades to the west over the weekend, allowing enough of a weakness that a backdoor surface "cool" front will move into the forecast area late Saturday and linger into Sunday. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced again on Saturday and increased into Sunday. Rain chances will linger into Monday, before upper level ridge now centered over the southwest U.S. strengthens and builds toward to the east. Rua && .MARINE... A surface ridge centered off the east Florida coast, will build across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will allow a light to occasional moderate onshore flow to prevail. Over the weekend, a weak surface cold front will move into the coastal waters...with winds becoming easterly. This front will also bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 92 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 0 LFT 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 10 0 BPT 92 77 93 76 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...07
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail into the overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts overnight will give way to winds 8-12 kts after sunrise. Wind speeds will diminish once again after sunset Wednesday. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed /06/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail into the overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts overnight will give way to winds 8-12 kts after sunrise. Wind speeds will diminish once again after sunset Wednesday. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed /06/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1131 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... Current forecast on target. Updated PFM sent to adjust hourly T to better fit observations. NO other changes to the grids at this time. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some. Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2 pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days. Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity was moving east. Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected. Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday. Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over the southeastern United States with that familiar east to southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the temperatures down...but rain chances will climb. MARINE... Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20 BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... Current forecast on target. Updated PFM sent to adjust hourly T to better fit observations. NO other changes to the grids at this time. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some. Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2 pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days. Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity was moving east. Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected. Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday. Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over the southeastern United States with that familiar east to southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the temperatures down...but rain chances will climb. MARINE... Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20 BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed /06/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail through the evening and into the overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts are expected overnight, increasing to 8-12 kts after sunrise. /12/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 06/12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... No changes to the ongoing forecast and no updates needed /06/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail through the evening and into the overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts are expected overnight, increasing to 8-12 kts after sunrise. /12/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 06/12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail through the evening and into the overnight hours across the ArkLaTex. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible during the early morning hours Wednesday, but will scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, sly winds around 5 kts are expected overnight, increasing to 8-12 kts after sunrise. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... As expected...the remnants of the convection over Scntrl AR/Ern sections of north central LA has exited the region into Srn MS and SE LA...as the persistent trough axis that has lingered over our region has finally shifted E of the MS River. Meanwhile...the sct convection over SE OK has also diminished as they crossed into SW AR...having moved away from the weak mid level theta-e axis. Thus...a quiet night is expected over the region...as the upper ridge centered over Cntrl TX this afternoon will begin to expand NE into the area tonight. The tropical air mass in place...characteristic of the unseasonably high mid and upper 70s dewpoints which persists areawide...will be slow to modify/mix out over the next couple of days. Coupled with the rainfall much of the region has received the last few days...evapotranspiration should remain high and inhibit dry air mixing which will only to add to the stress conditions as temps climb to the hottest readings so far this year. After coordination with adjacent WFO/s...have issued a Heat Advisory in effect from 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday as heat indices should reach/exceed 105 degree each day over much of the advisory area. Dewpoints may mix out a little more Thursday...but temps should climb into the mid and possibly upper 9os as the center of the H850-700 ridge becomes centered over E TX/Wrn LA. The advisory may have to be expanded to encompass the remainder of the region Wednesday /for Thursday and Friday/ once these hotter temps/heat stress conditions are reached. The medium range progs continue to suggest that the upper ridge will expand farther N into the Plains/Midwest Friday...and eventually into the OH Valley and Ern Seaboard this weekend. A weakness associated with a longwave trough that will slide S along the E Coast back W across the MS Valley this weekend will help nudge a sfc trough SSW into the area Saturday...as it slowly back-doors SSW into the area. Compressional warming along/ahead of the trough should result in the potential for Heat Advisory criteria even into Saturday...tapping into what available moisture is in place for isolated convection over much of the area. Have taken out pops Friday night for SW AR/Ncntrl LA as the sfc trough will remain off to our NE...but kept slight chance pops going Saturday areawide and for the Srn zones Saturday night to accommodate any residual convection. The ECMWF suggests the sfc trough stalling over E TX/Ncntrl LA Saturday night/Sunday...which may focus isolated convection along/S of the bndry into Sunday. Should see some drier air begin to backdoor into portions of the area late in the weekend...tapering max temps back a few degrees while also lowering RH/s. However...the H500 ridge looks to intensify to near 600 dam over the Srn Rockies by Monday...while amplifying farther E and W across much of the CONUS through much of next week. Thus...the heat and dry conditions look to persist throughout the remainder of the extended. Thank you WFO/s FWD/LZK/JAN for coordination this afternoon. Prelims to follow below... 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 12
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .AVIATION...Low pressure aloft continues to advance over and east of the region with dry high pressure following. VFR ahead. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some. Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2 pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days. Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity was moving east. Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected. Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday. Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over the southeastern United States with that familiar east to southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the temperatures down...but rain chances will climb. MARINE... Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20 BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...23
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 412 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... As expected...the remnants of the convection over Scntrl AR/Ern sections of Northcntrl LA has exited the region into Srn MS and SE LA...as the persistent trough axis that has lingered over our region has finally shifted E of the MS River. Meanwhile...the sct convection over SE OK has also diminished as they crossed into SW AR...having moved away from the weak mid level theta-e axis. Thus...a quiet night is expected over the region...as the upper ridge centered over Cntrl TX this afternoon will begin to expand NE into the area tonight. The tropical air mass in place...characteristic of the unseasonably high mid and upper 70s dewpoints which perists areawide...will be slow to modify/mix out over the next couple of days. Coupled with the rainfall much of the region has received the last few days...evapotranspiration should remain high and inhibit dry air mixing which will only to add to the stress conditions as temps climb to the hottest readings so far this year. After coordination with adjacent WFO/s...have issued a Heat Advisory in effect from 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday as heat indices should reach/exceed 105 degree each day over much of the advisory area. Dewpoints may mix out a little more Thursday...but temps should climb into the mid and possibly upper 9os as the center of the H850-700 ridge becomes centered over E TX/Wrn LA. The advisory may have to be expanded to encompass the remainder of the region Wednesday /for Thursday and Friday/ once these hotter temps/heat stress conditions are reached. The medium range progs continue to suggest that the upper ridge will expand farther N into the Plains/Midwest Friday...and eventually into the OH Valley and Ern Seaboard this weekend. A weakness associated with a longwave trough that will slide S along the E Coast back W across the MS Valley this weekend will help nudge a sfc trough SSW into the area Saturday...as it slowly backdoors SSW into the area. Compressional warming along/ahead of the trough should result in the potential for Heat Advisory criteria even into Saturday...tapping into what available moisture is in place for isolated convection over much of the area. Have taken out pops Friday night for SW AR/Ncntrl LA as the sfc trough will remain off to our NE...but kept slight chance pops going Saturday areawide and for the Srn zones Saturday night to accommodate any residual convection. The ECMWF suggests the sfc trough stalling over E TX/Ncntrl LA Saturday night/Sunday...which may focus isolated convection along/S of the bndry into Sunday. Should see some drier air begin to backdoor into portions of the area late in the weekend...tapering max temps back a few degrees while also lowering RH/s. However...the H500 ridge looks to intensify to near 600 dam over the Srn Rockies by Monday...while amplifying farther E and W across much of the CONUS through much of next week. Thus...the heat and dry conditions look to persist throughout the remainder of the extended. Thank you WFO/s FWD/LZK/JAN for coordination this afternoon. Prelims to follow below... 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ AVIATION... For the 15/18Z TAFs VFR/IRF conditions across all terminal sites this afternoon with high clouds moving from eastern Texas to central Louisiana over the next several hours. Expect Southerly winds of 5 to 10 kts at the surface. Fog is expected during the overnight hours forming around 15/03Z across most terminal sites with light southerly winds. The fog will begin to dissipate after day break and CIGS will lift through the late morning hours. /21/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 74 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 75 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 77 93 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 75 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 76 93 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 76 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014. OK...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 15
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Latest surface analysis showed ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to central Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow was present across the south half of Louisiana and Southern Mississippi this afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings were generally 70s from the Gulf Coast to Iowa. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave over Alabama and Mississippi. Because the wave is not very sharp...Precipitable water field showed pooling along front and back of the axis from south Arkansas to north central Gulf of Mexico with values around 2 inches. 18 && .DISCUSSION... Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through wednesday maintaining a threat of rain over the forecast area...higher chances across the east half on Wednesday. Surface high will remain over the Florida Peninsula to central Gulf of Mexica. In the meantime...the main upper level ridge will amplify over the Plains going into Thursday and Friday. A short wave in the northern stream will dive southeast over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley as the ridge axis builds from West Texas to Hudson Bay. As the short wave moves off the East Coast...the ridge axis will become west/east and likely develop into a large anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains. The associated axis of the short wave will push across the forecast area around the large upper high Saturday creating an increase in rain chances for the area. Some of these storms could by strong with movement from northeast to southwest and contain strong gusty winds on Saturday. With the broad anti-cyclonic circulation expanding east...rain chances will decrease especially across the north half zones next week. With the ridge over the plains...heights will increase but no real changes to low level moisture through the weekend. Afternoon temps are forecast to approach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday. As a result... afternoon heat index values may top off around 105 degrees Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... Lingering convection through the first part of this evening could result in a brief drop to MVFR or IFR conditions if any storms move over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail with the possible exception of some patchy fog or low stratus near daybreak. 95/DM && .MARINE... Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern waters by about Thursday night or Friday as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection will be possible through the period with convection most likely around daybreak through the mid-morning hours before dissipating. Any storms could produce localized gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 73 93 74 / 70 20 20 10 BTR 89 74 92 75 / 70 20 20 10 ASD 91 74 92 74 / 70 20 20 20 MSY 89 78 90 77 / 70 20 20 20 GPT 89 75 90 75 / 70 30 50 20 PQL 89 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 20 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Latest surface analysis showed ridge of high pressure over Florida peninsula to central Gulf of Mexico. Southwest flow was present across the south half of Louisiana and Southern Mississippi this afternoon. Surface dewpoint readings were generally 70s from the Gulf Coast to Iowa. Latest upper air analysis showed a short wave over Alabama and Mississippi. Because the wave is not very sharp...Precipitable water field showed pooling along front and back of the axis from south Arkansas to north central Gulf of Mexico with values around 2 inches. 18 && .DISCUSSION... Upper level short wave will weaken and slowly push east through wednesday maintaining a threat of rain over the forecast area...higher chances across the east half on Wednesday. Surface high will remain over the Florida Peninsula to central Gulf of Mexica. In the meantime...the main upper level ridge will amplify over the Plains going into Thursday and Friday. A short wave in the northern stream will dive southeast over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley as the ridge axis builds from West Texas to Hudson Bay. As the short wave moves off the East Coast...the ridge axis will become west/east and likely develop into a large anticyclonic circulation centered the Central Plains. The associated axis of the short wave will push across the forecast area around the large upper high Saturday creating an increase in rain chances for the area. Some of these storms could by strong with movement from northeast to southwest and contain strong gusty winds on Saturday. With the broad anti-cyclonic circulation expanding east...rain chances will decrease especially across the north half zones next week. With the ridge over the plains...heights will increase but no real changes to low level moisture through the weekend. Afternoon temps are forecast to approach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday. As a result... afternoon heat index values may top off around 105 degrees Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... Lingering convection through the first part of this evening could result in a brief drop to MVFR or IFR conditions if any storms move over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail with the possible exception of some patchy fog or low stratus near daybreak. 95/DM && .MARINE... Southwesterly flow across the coastal waters for much of the week. Prevailing conditions should be in the 10-12 knot range for most of the next 3 days. Could see an increase to around 15 knots over the eastern waters by about Thursday night or Friday as a low level nocturnal jet is expected to develop mainly to the east of the Mississippi River across the nearshore open Gulf Waters, Chandeleur Sound, and Mississippi Sound each night. This could increase seas of the general 1 to 2 foot range seen most of the day to around 3 feet. These winds should quickly ease after sunrise, as seabreeze processes near the coast take hold. Convection will be possible through the period with convection most likely around daybreak through the mid-morning hours before dissipating. Any storms could produce localized gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 73 93 74 / 70 20 20 10 BTR 89 74 92 75 / 70 20 20 10 ASD 91 74 92 74 / 70 20 20 20 MSY 89 78 90 77 / 70 20 20 20 GPT 89 75 90 75 / 70 30 50 20 PQL 89 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 20 && .LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... Afternoon highs already hitting their marks and then some. Beaumont currently takes the checkered flag for reaching 92 by 2 pm. This is a sign of hot times to come over the next few days. Radar this afternoon compared to yesterday like night and day difference. Isolated...possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly across the eastern 1/2 of our area along and east of a Pitkin...Jennings line. This activity was moving east. Shortterm...High pressure will will be building into the upper levels thru Friday with hot days and warm nights. Convection will be dampened by sinking air aloft and therefore expect only isolated activity during the daytime hours which if any develop will move south with the mid level flow. Unfortunately I`m seeing daytime heat indices in the 100 to 107 area through Friday. Time to begin checking up on family members to be sure they have adequate cooling and can get through the rest of the week. Highs will be a few degrees above normal but it is the lows that will sure be tough with mid to upper 70s expected. Longterm...Saturday will see some slight easing of uncomfortable temperatures as the upper level high begins to retrogrades to the west. This trend will continue up all the way into next Tuesday. Therefore...we begin increasing the rain chances beginning Saturday with scattered to chance category rains through Tuesday...fairly typical leading into summer. One thing to note...at the lower levels...next week...surface high pressure will be dominant over the southeastern United States with that familiar east to southeasterly flow over our area. We should begin seeing more easterly type upper level disturbances heading into our area by the middle of next week. This generally will bode well for keeping the temperatures down...but rain chances will climb. && .MARINE... Light to moderately onshore flow will continue through the weekend as high pressure ridges westward across the northwest Gulf Of Mexico. Winds and see may be high over the eastern half of the coastal waters Sunday into early Monday as easterly flow strengthens and showers and thunderstorms result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 78 91 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 20 BPT 78 92 77 93 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...06
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 .AVIATION... A few storms noted on radar this aftn down alng the cst of s cntrl La and n of the I-10 corridor in se Tx and sw La... this is a large reduction fm the last few days. It looks like ridging aloft seems to be taking hold of storm dvlpmnt and shutting it down. Best potential for storm dvlpmnt tdy will be ovr s-cntrl La into the early eve hours. Radar is indicating a MCS movg into e-cntrl La attm. This sys looks to skirt to the e of AEX...LFT and ARA... although storms lftg out of the Vermilion Bay will have the potential of movg acrs ARA and LFT into the late aftn hrs. Otherwise acrs se Tx and sw La... looks to see sctd shwrs or tstms mainly north of the I-10 corridor w/ cld bases fm 020 to 040. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... For the 14/12z TAF issuance. AVIATION... Just a few small nocturnal showers have developed in the overnight and near mainly KARA, and not having much impact. Some low stratus has developed at KAEX with IFR conditions, and this will likely continue through about 14/14z. Otherwise, mainly VFR at other sites. Still plenty of moisture hanging around, along with a weakness aloft. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible with daytime heating, and will mention VCTS at all TAF sites through 15/02z. Rua PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... Short Term...Today through Wednesday. Main forecast issue in near term will be POPs. Increasing thunderstorm activity was observed across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Short range models including HRRR hinting at a thunderstorm complex overnight over this area with MCS moving SE into Mississippi. As has been the case in previous forecast...highest rain chances will be over eastern parts of forecast area. Broad upper level ridge will shift over the area tonight and Tuesday. At this time...anticipate less thunderstorm coverage areawide so now will keep POPs near 20 percent. Long Term...Wednesday night through Monday Upper ridge should continue over the forecast area the middle of the week before slowing shifting west. POPs will remain minimal through the end of the week...but will increase slightly this weekend as eastern U.S. upper trough works into region. Will maintain diurnal chance POPs from the weekend through early next week. Maximum temperatures will trend above normal late in the week before returning to near normal early next week. Will need to monitor heat indices...especially across central Louisiana... Friday and Saturday. These readings remain forecasted in the 105-107 range during that time. MARINE... High pressure over the Central gulf will continue to expand through the rest of the week. Weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected. Outside of thunderstorm activity...no marine hazards are anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 10 LCH 78 91 77 92 / 10 20 10 10 LFT 78 92 77 93 / 10 20 10 20 BPT 78 92 77 92 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ K. Kuyper
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
353 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Thunderstorm potential very late this afternoon through tonight is the focus of this forecast release. As of 08 UTC, storms are ongoing from northeast MT into northwest ND on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet centered near 850 MB, per overnight model guidance, including recent RAP runs. The elevated convection is occurring on the edge of a northeastward-advancing elevated mixed layer containing steep mid-level lapse rates. Thus far the storms in northwest ND have been sub-severe, but there is still a chance of a marginally-severe storm through early morning as MUCAPE continues to increase and exceeds 1000 J/kg as far east as Minot by 12 UTC. However, forecast soundings still suggest the mid-level cap may limit activity further east, a notion supported by recent experimental (ESRL-run) HRRR simulations. The better part of today will be warm with increasing humidity in most areas as a surface low in eastern MT this morning lifts north into Canada and a trailing surface trough/weak cold front moves to the east, reaching central ND by 00 UTC. Southerly flow in advance of that wind shift/frontal zone is expected to tap into the pool of higher dewpoints in central and eastern NEB early this morning. The consensus of 00 UTC model guidance, including a bias-corrected flavor of that output that we run in-house, supports surface dew- points in the mid to upper 60s F over central ND by 00 UTC. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500 J/kg from mid afternoon into the evening. Convective initiation is likely to hold off until very late afternoon at the earliest with significant mid-level capping at the base of the elevated mixed layer seen on model-forecast soundings, and neutral or even slight positive tendencies in the 500 MB height fields before 00 UTC. We thus held off on introducing low-end thunderstorm chances until 22 UTC, and even then only aligned them from Minot toward New Salem along the most probable location of the surface wind shift. A few 00 UTC convection-allowing model simulations do suggest that area could have incipient storm development by that time, though again confidence is not that great in formation before evening. We have increasing PoPs in the forecast post-00 UTC, especially along and south of Interstate 94 and along and east of Highway 83, which is when subtle mid-level height falls begin and in the area where 00 UTC guidance and more contemporary HRRR simulations suggest storm coverage will be greatest. We have chosen to explicitly mention the possibility of severe thunderstorms in the gridded and text forecasts over central ND from late this afternoon into the evening. The degree of MLCAPE combined with moderate 0-6-km bulk wind differences (shear) from 30 to 40 kt supports organized, possibly supercellular storms with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Applying the HAILCAST model to the 00 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW supports peak hailstone sizes of 1.50 to 1.75 inches (ping pong to golf ball size) with the most intense storms. Updraft helicity output from the 00 UTC SPC SSEO supports organized storms, especially from Bismarck toward Jamestown during the evening, but its peak values are not particularly high. That may be a reflection of the somewhat modest deep-layer shear values in place, and may suggest that while severe storms are probable, a high-end or particularly intense event may not be likely. Finally, precipitable water values in the pre-convective environment are in the 1.40 inch range, supporting locally heavy rainfall with storms. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend thanks to a persistent southwest flow aloft on the northern side of a very strong sub-tropical ridge centered over NM. Taken at face value, the 00 UTC guidance (including the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF) suggest that Friday daytime may be relatively dry with weak height rises aloft in place across the region. However, that set of models also all suggests that convection forming in MT may reach western and central ND between 06 and 12 UTC Saturday when elevated instability rapidly increases. This may pose some risk of severe weather late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Then, on Saturday afternoon and evening, the 00 UTC models show strong instability with MLCAPE potentially reaching 3500 to 4000 J/kg in parts of southwest and south central ND. The predictability of any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded in the flow is relatively low given their lack of amplitude, which suggests the timing and location of convective development is uncertain. However, if the 00 UTC guidance is correct, the CAPE-shear setting may be one of the most impressive we`ve seen thus far this year with 0-6-km bulk wind differences exceeding 50 kt over a wide area. That could mean a higher-end severe threat is possible, an idea supported by the 00 UTC CIPS analog guidance. Moreover, some guidance suggests that a well-organized MCS could cross ND Saturday night. Again, there is considerable uncertainty in any details surrounding this event, but it will be one to watch in the coming days. Thereafter, it appears that flow may turn more northwesterly for a few days early next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and a somewhat drier pattern Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Aviation concerns continue to be low level wind shear over the west and central until about 16/13z, and the ongoing thunderstorms over northwest into north central North Dakota until about 16/16z. A strong low level jet coming into western / central North Dakota from low pressure in eastern Montana will result in low level wind shear until surface speeds increase by mid morning. On the storm chances at KISN and KMOT, activity looks to be north of KISN and uncertainty remains as to how far east, toward KMOT, it will get. VFR at KDIK-KBIS-KJMS. Storm development at KBIS and KJMS will be possible after 16/23z. && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
104 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 There was little overall change with this update, but we did use a consensus of high-resolution and statistical model guidance to refresh hourly forecast fields through 18 UTC Thursday. If storms in northeast MT maintain their current trajectory they will cut across far northwest ND the next several hours. Forecast soundings in northwest ND from the RAP and other guidance support some 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and effective bulk wind shear over 40 KT, which is consistent with a chance of large hail and possibly strong winds from organized, elevated thunderstorms. The main uncertainty with these storms is how far south they may build, especially further east into north central ND, as mid-level capping will be on the increase such that parcels will need to be lifted from about 700 MB to freely convect. UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 The trend so far tonight confirms the combination of a persistent cap and a relatively weak shortwave trough is keeping the threat of thunderstorms low this evening. The latest HRRR experimental seems to be the best CAM model and it continues to delay the threat of thunderstorms over the far northwest until after midnight then spreading into the far north central by sunrise. Current forecast has this trend and will not make changes other than to update current conditions. UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 While the short term convective allowing models, particularly the HRRR, continue to show convective initiation across southeast Montana through northwest South Dakota already by late afternoon today, the current trends have not verified this. Will continue to monitor the short term trends but do not see enough information to add scattered showers/thunderstorms to the forecast this early and that far south. Current forecast will be allowed to continue with only current weather conditions updated. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Elevated thunderstorm potential in the far northwest is the main highlight tonight with an isolated severe potential. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms central Thursday is the next concern, with these thunderstorms capable of reaching severe criteria. The latest water vapor imagery shows western North Dakota falling into more of a dominate southwest/active flow, as successive shortwaves emanating around a closed upper low from Alberta back into the Pacific northwest. A shortwave over western Wyoming and an associated surface low is forecast to lift north overnight, located near Wolf Point Montana by 12 UTC Thursday. This might possibly affect northwest ND between 06-12 UTC with a threat for elevated strong to severe thunderstorms. At least through 06z, the latest CAMs keep the thunderstorms confined to eastern Montana. Thereafter a couple high resolution models develop isolated convection into the far northwest. Soundings show an increasing 850mb southerly low level jet to 50kt-55kt across western ND. The level of free convection is up around 10kft in northwest ND, thus any thunderstorms that develop will be high based in nature capable of large hail and damaging winds. Chances for thunderstorms advance into north central ND by 12 UTC Thursday before weakening by mid to late morning. The rest of western and central ND will remain dry tonight into most of Thursday afternoon. On Thursday, the surface low ejects to near Williston by early afternoon then shifts into southern Saskatchewan. This will drag a cold front into the northwest ND mid to late Thursday afternoon, then into central ND Thursday evening. There is increasing potential for thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front late afternoon through Thursday evening especially in central ND. NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings across central ND mid to late Thursday afternoon show increasing instability as moisture advection/dewpoints rise into the mid 60s. The elevated mixed layer also shows signs of shrinking as winds turn from southerly to westerly within the layer, with a resultant period of cold air advection. For the Bismarck and Minot forecast NAM/GFS soundings, the mixed layer cape between 21-00 UTC is advertised at 2500-3500 J/Kg along with 0-6km shear of 35-45kt. 850mb equivalent potential temperature axis of 352K sets up over south central ND, between Bismarck and Jamestown, which noses into the Turtle Mountains 21-00 UTC Thursday. With the surface cold front/wind shift in close proximity to the theta-e axis, would expect this to be the initiating point for thunderstorms. SPC currently has all but the west in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. With increased low level instability, and the erosion of the capping layer, the potential for tapping into the above mentioned high cape/high shear environment with organized severe thunderstorms will need close monitoring. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016 Successive shortwaves and periodic rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe, remains possible Friday through Sunday. This is a result of the aforementioned upper low in the west finally approaching and ejecting east of North Dakota by Sunday night. This leaves behind a northwest flow aloft Monday through Wednesday. Periodic shortwaves advertised within northwest flow will be conducive to more shower/thunderstorm development. Timing of shortwaves too difficult at this time. Main message is an active period continues in the long term. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Aviation concerns to start the TAF valid period include low level wind shear over the west and central until about 16/13z, and the threat for convection at KISN and KMOT until about 16/18z. A strong low level jet coming into western / central North Dakota from low pressure in eastern Montana will result in low level wind shear until surface speeds increase during the mid morning hours. On the convection chances at KISN and KMOT, have not included anything in the TAFs issued at 16/06z as confidence is not yet high enough that the TAF sites will be impacted. && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...JPM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 901 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward from the Desert Southwest. && && .DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay. However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but something to keep an eye on. && .PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday... High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine influence. Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler across our area by then. && .AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north, the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from 2100z into the afternoon hours. Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds. Confidence is low for shower activity. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt. Confidence is high. && .MARINE...as of 08:47 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the day along with a few showers. The winds will switch to the northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. Seas are expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell. However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: Larry MARINE: Bell Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
533 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners Region this weekend and expand westward. A warming trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat possible for parts of the area early next week. Some relief from the heat is possible by the middle of next week as high pressure weakens. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT) A tight pressure gradient remains across Southern Santa Barbara early this morning. Gusty northerly winds continue across the area where the Scherpa Fire is burning, especially west of Goleta to Gaviota. High-resolution model solutions suggest winds slacking off some around daybreak this morning. Another round of gusty Sundowner Winds is forecast for this afternoon and tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect across Southern Santa Barbara County until 6 AM PDT. A Wind Advisory may need to be reissued by the next shift to get a better handle on the finer details for this afternoon and tonight. Southwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a battle is waged between an upper-level trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest Coast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure over South Texas. Some clouds associated with the trough`s weakening cold front are off the Central Coast this morning, but the ridge`s influence should start to win out keep most of the clouds and moisture north of the area in Monterey County. Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend as the high pressure system over South Texas expands and builds westward into New Mexico through Saturday. 500 mb heights rise and 1000-500 mb thickness values climb through the end of the week as onshore pressure gradients weaken. The marine layer depth will thin progressively into Saturday. The best chance of marine layer stratus clouds will occur through tonight, then it will become hard-pressed to get any low cloud formation. Temperatures have been nudged slightly higher for Friday and Saturday as model solutions are warming the air mass slightly in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A northerly surface gradient will remain in place and bring locally gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across Southern Santa Barbara County. The latest model solutions suggest slightly weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but stronger winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM BUFR time height sections are falling inline with this idea suggesting the strongest wind core just off the surface of KSBA on Saturday evening. While Friday`s winds look marginal, a Wind Advisory may be needed for Saturday afternoon and night when the timing and run-to-run consistency issues clear. .LONG TERM...(SUN-WED) Strong ridging aloft builds into the region on Sunday and Monday. GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures across the region. Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat Watch will remain in place for now. Temperatures were nudged higher from Sunday through Tuesday to bring the forecast a tad more inline with local temperature studies. If GFS solutions play out as progged, this will likely be the warmest June heatwave in almost a decade. There is a chance that this heatwave could the warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and temperatures across the region. A little less clarity exists for Tuesday through next Thursday as model solutions start to develop a southeast flow aloft for middle portion of next week. A monsoonal surge could develop after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions with humidity now added into latter half of next week. To pay more attention to the short-term impacts with the Scherpa Fire and the hot conditions through the weekend, the latter half of next week was broad-brushed for now to allow for better timing and clarity. && .AVIATION...16/1220Z. At 12Z, a weak marine inversion at KLAX was around 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4600 ft with a temperature near 14 degrees Celsius. moderate confidence with vfr conds this morning in most areas...but less confidence for cigs tonight. Kept skies mostly VFR overnight...but should see some mvfr or high IFR cigs late tonight for LA coastal areas. Less confident for coastal valleys and Central Coast. KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions between 09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Any east winds should remain less than 6 knots. KBUR...high confidence in 12z taf. 30 percent chance for high ifr/low mvfr cigs after 10z tonight. && .MARINE...16/500 AM SCA level winds will continue across the outer waters from Point Sal to San Nicolas Island through late tonight or early Friday morning. There will be SCA level wind gusts across the western portion of the SBA western Channel. There could be some smoke over the channel as well from the Scherpa Fire. Expect gusty NW winds across the western portion of the channel each afternoon and evening hours through this weekend and into early next week. A long period southerly 3-4 ft swell generated from the Southern Pacific will continue across the coastal waters today and likely into Friday. Not anticipating any Small Craft for Hazardous Seas through this weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning For zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...CK MARINE...CK SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 450 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward from the Desert Southwest. && .DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday...Satellite imagery is showing mostly clear skies across the southern half if the CWA with increasing clouds over the northern zones. These increasing clouds are with the approaching upper low and associated frontal system. Latest model guidance mainly brings in the rain a little later today, and also has less rainfall compared with 12Z run totals. Although, the North Bay is still expected to get the bulk of the shower activity, rainfall amounts are now progged at under 1/2 inch. Not much is expected south of the Golden Gate, with a few hundredths of an inch at the most generally just along the coast. Showers could hang on a little longer, into Friday, per the latest Nam12, but all activity will remain over the north bay. The upper low is then forecast to finally move to the east on Saturday. High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine influence. Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler across our area by then. && .AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north, the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from 2100z into the afternoon hours. Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds. Confidence is low for shower activity. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt. Confidence is high. && .MARINE...as of 04:40 AM PDT Thursday...Southerly winds are expected today as a low pressure system approaches the Central California coast. This low pressure system will also bring the possibility of showers to the coastal waters. Winds will become northwest on Thursday as the low pressure system moves inland. Seas are expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell. However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen on Saturday resulting in increasing winds for the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims AVIATION: Larry MARINE: Larry Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Eureka CA 435 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will bring cooler temperatures and and scattered showers to northwest California through Saturday. A building ridge of high pressure will bring a warming trend beginning Sunday with hot and dry weather across the interior expected to last through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Shower activity was fairly widespread late last night but estimated rainfall rates were actually quite low. Areas north of hwy 299 have range from 0.02 to 0.06 inches while southern Humboldt saw some higher amounts ranging from 0.10 to 0.20 inches. As of 330am shower activity is diminishing in coverage and intensity...however the region may see another small spike in activity later today with some support from added surface heating. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast just do to the proximety of the upper low however, as was mentioned in previous discussions, traditional convective parameters are not impressive thus confidence remains low. Moving into the weekend the trough will lift northward allowing a formidable upper level ridge to build across NW CA from the southwest. This will cause a warming trend to begin on Sunday with generally hot temperatures across the interior Monday through at least Thursday. Heights at H5 should range from 591 to 594DM which should translate to max temperatures well into the lower 100s for most of our hotter interior valley spots. At this time any offshore flow associated with the ridge looks light but will also contribute to some warm interior nights during the hot spell. && .AVIATION...Instability associated with a trough offshore will bring scattered shower activity as well as periodic MVFR ceilings to the aerodromes this morning. The shower activity will spike up again this afternoon and periodic MVFR conditions in showers may continue to affect KCEC, KACV and KUKI through this evening. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight. && .MARINE...A weak low offshore will maintain light wind fields over the coastal waters through Friday. Light southerly flow with a weak trough this morning should gradually become light westerly this afternoon and then light northerly overnight. The models continue to indicate weak low pressure meandering about offshore on Friday and suspect winds will remain light and varible before becoming northerly Friday night. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will slowly build toward the coast Sat and Sun. Northerly winds offshore will be on the increase during this frame. The potential for low end or marginal Gales will enter the picture on Sunday and Monday, primarily in the outer waters north of Cape Mendocino. Confidence is slightly above average with both the GFS and ECMWF indicating north winds in the 20-30 kt range on Sunday. Winds inside 10nm will be a bit more tricky. Current indications are for winds to be light to moderate. There is a chance for small scale eddy development by Monday. Even the ARW and HRRR typically are not able to forecast development of these localized nearshore wind reversals. Seas will remain mixed through Friday. A long period SOUTHERLY SWELL from the southern hemisphere will continue to combine with a short period NW SWELL from the northeast Pacific. The short period NW SWELL will continue to gradually subside today through Fri, while the long period southerly groups hold steady. Short period wave energy will slowly increase over the weekend in response to the building northerly flow offshore. Expect seas to become elevated and hazardous Sun into Mon. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA Follow us on facebook and twitter at: http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 The going forecast is largely on track, so all we did with this update was increase wind speeds slightly in western ND and tweak PoPs in north central ND through 15 UTC, both in respect to trends in observational data. Storms are quickly exiting north central ND into Canada, with little back-building due to increasing capping. The window of opportunity for a strong storm in north central ND early this morning is therefore starting to close. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Thunderstorm potential very late this afternoon through tonight is the focus of this forecast release. As of 08 UTC, storms are ongoing from northeast MT into northwest ND on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet centered near 850 MB, per overnight model guidance, including recent RAP runs. The elevated convection is occurring on the edge of a northeastward-advancing elevated mixed layer containing steep mid-level lapse rates. Thus far the storms in northwest ND have been sub-severe, but there is still a chance of a marginally-severe storm through early morning as MUCAPE continues to increase and exceeds 1000 J/kg as far east as Minot by 12 UTC. However, forecast soundings still suggest the mid-level cap may limit activity further east, a notion supported by recent experimental (ESRL-run) HRRR simulations. The better part of today will be warm with increasing humidity in most areas as a surface low in eastern MT this morning lifts north into Canada and a trailing surface trough/weak cold front moves to the east, reaching central ND by 00 UTC. Southerly flow in advance of that wind shift/frontal zone is expected to tap into the pool of higher dewpoints in central and eastern NEB early this morning. The consensus of 00 UTC model guidance, including a bias-corrected flavor of that output that we run in-house, supports surface dew- points in the mid to upper 60s F over central ND by 00 UTC. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500 J/kg from mid afternoon into the evening. Convective initiation is likely to hold off until very late afternoon at the earliest with significant mid-level capping at the base of the elevated mixed layer seen on model-forecast soundings, and neutral or even slight positive tendencies in the 500 MB height fields before 00 UTC. We thus held off on introducing low-end thunderstorm chances until 22 UTC, and even then only aligned them from Minot toward New Salem along the most probable location of the surface wind shift. A few 00 UTC convection-allowing model simulations do suggest that area could have incipient storm development by that time, though again confidence is not that great in formation before evening. We have increasing PoPs in the forecast post-00 UTC, especially along and south of Interstate 94 and along and east of Highway 83, which is when subtle mid-level height falls begin and in the area where 00 UTC guidance and more contemporary HRRR simulations suggest storm coverage will be greatest. We have chosen to explicitly mention the possibility of severe thunderstorms in the gridded and text forecasts over central ND from late this afternoon into the evening. The degree of MLCAPE combined with moderate 0-6-km bulk wind differences (shear) from 30 to 40 kt supports organized, possibly supercellular storms with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Applying the HAILCAST model to the 00 UTC NSSL WRF-ARW supports peak hailstone sizes of 1.50 to 1.75 inches (ping pong to golf ball size) with the most intense storms. Updraft helicity output from the 00 UTC SPC SSEO supports organized storms, especially from Bismarck toward Jamestown during the evening, but its peak values are not particularly high. That may be a reflection of the somewhat modest deep-layer shear values in place, and may suggest that while severe storms are probable, a high-end or particularly intense event may not be likely. Finally, precipitable water values in the pre-convective environment are in the 1.40 inch range, supporting locally heavy rainfall with storms. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend thanks to a persistent southwest flow aloft on the northern side of a very strong sub-tropical ridge centered over NM. Taken at face value, the 00 UTC guidance (including the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF) suggest that Friday daytime may be relatively dry with weak height rises aloft in place across the region. However, that set of models also all suggests that convection forming in MT may reach western and central ND between 06 and 12 UTC Saturday when elevated instability rapidly increases. This may pose some risk of severe weather late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Then, on Saturday afternoon and evening, the 00 UTC models show strong instability with MLCAPE potentially reaching 3500 to 4000 J/kg in parts of southwest and south central ND. The predictability of any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded in the flow is relatively low given their lack of amplitude, which suggests the timing and location of convective development is uncertain. However, if the 00 UTC guidance is correct, the CAPE-shear setting may be one of the most impressive we`ve seen thus far this year with 0-6-km bulk wind differences exceeding 50 kt over a wide area. That could mean a higher-end severe threat is possible, an idea supported by the 00 UTC CIPS analog guidance. Moreover, some guidance suggests that a well-organized MCS could cross ND Saturday night. Again, there is considerable uncertainty in any details surrounding this event, but it will be one to watch in the coming days. Thereafter, it appears that flow may turn more northwesterly for a few days early next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and a somewhat drier pattern Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016 VFR conditions will generally prevail today and tonight. However, a cold front moving through central ND may produce thunderstorms after about 22 UTC. KBIS and KJMS have the highest probability of impacts from thunderstorms with local MVFR or IFR conditions, so the 12 UTC TAFs carried a VCTS this evening (and lasting until 09 UTC in the case of KJMS). && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...CJS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 338 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a distinct mid- level circulation located over west central Missouri...moving slowly to the southeast. This circulation represents the dynamic remnants of an area of convection from overnight through this morning. There was not convection located within this circulation as of 20z...however the circulation and remnant cloud cover was easy to identify. This mesoscale convective vortex /MCV/ will continue to move southeast through this evening and will provide some weak forcing for ascent downstream across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas late this afternoon through this evening. The HRRR is fairly aggressive with initiating convection across southern Missouri...allowing the convection to grow upscale into a loosely organized mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that becomes cold pool driven and dives quickly southeast across much of northern and eastern Arkansas through 00z. While this solution would bring some welcome relief to the 110 plus heat indices found across that region as of 20z...the HRRR seems overly aggressive with convection initiation at this time. The HRRR had scattered thunderstorms developing across much of southern Missouri as of 18z which has not taken place as of 20z. There were cooling cloud tops over southwest Missouri though...with some light reflectivities showing up on radar...so kept a 20-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the northwest third of the CWA through this evening to account for this activity spreading southeast. If a vigorous cold pool does develop...there is plenty of potential convective instability /CAPE/ present across northern Arkansas to keep updrafts developing on the leading edge possibly allow the system to group upscale and move southeast the HRRR forecasts. The main limiting factor to organized upscale growth is the lack of low-level shear. There`s not much shear in place favoring the cold pool outpacing convective initiation causing the MCS to break down before getting organized. 20Z SPC mesoscale analysis page indicates around 4000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE... so will not completely rule out an MCS across the northern CWA late this afternoon. The primary hazards associated with storms in this environment will be damaging winds and large hail. Kept pops in the 20-30 percent range due to limited confidence in an MCS organizing as the HRRR advertises. Tonight through Friday...A strong upper level shortwave trough over northern Ohio will move southeast tonight over central and eastern Virginia. This will send a cold front southwest across Arkansas beginning tomorrow morning. This back door type cold front will slow down quite a bit once we get some heating tomorrow late morning. This may cause the boundary to stall out just to the northeast of the Little Rock metro area...but the stalled boundary should still remain oriented northwest to southeast early tomorrow afternoon. Assuming this boundary stalls out as expected...it should provide enough lift to cause scattered storms to develop sometime after 18z. Went ahead with 30 to 40 pops across central and northern Arkansas tomorrow afternoon to account for a higher confidence in this coverage/scenario. Once again any storms that develop should primarily be a wind threat...followed by a low-end hail threat. The boundary should move to the southwest again once scattered storms develop along the stalled out boundary. The more storms that develop along the boundary...the faster it will move to the southwest. Kept 20 to 30 pops in the forecast from central to southern Arkansas Friday evening to account for storms developing along this front as it move southwest. Saturday...Assuming the boundary moves southwest of Arkansas Saturday morning slightly cooler...but more importantly drier air...will filter in across the state from the northeast. This will finally bring afternoon heat index values down below 100 degrees for most locations...offering some temporary relief from the late week heat. Heat index values are likely to climb to 105 degrees on Friday for most of Arkansas before storms and drier air from the northeast arrives. Therefore will keep the heat advisory in place across the CWA through tomorrow evening and will not extend it into Saturday with this forecast. Cavanaugh && .LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday Up until Tuesday the weather will be quiet thanks to a broad ridge stretched over the Central CONUS. By Tuesday this upper ridge will shift west providing Northwest flow across the midsouth and an opportunity for a boundary to drift into the Natural State. Updated POPS to reflect the timing but kept them on the low side due to the limited amount of moisture available. Even after the frontal boundary pushes south into the Gulf states on Wednesday, Arkansas will remain under northwest flow...with at least some chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Kept temperatures near seasonal normals with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 77 94 70 89 / 20 40 20 10 Camden AR 75 96 73 93 / 10 20 30 20 Harrison AR 74 91 69 88 / 20 40 20 10 Hot Springs AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 20 30 20 Little Rock AR 78 96 75 92 / 10 30 30 10 Monticello AR 77 96 75 92 / 10 20 30 20 Mount Ida AR 75 95 72 90 / 10 30 30 20 Mountain Home AR 75 93 70 89 / 20 40 20 10 Newport AR 77 94 71 91 / 20 30 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 77 95 74 90 / 10 20 30 10 Russellville AR 76 95 73 91 / 10 40 30 10 Searcy AR 76 95 72 91 / 10 40 20 10 Stuttgart AR 77 95 74 91 / 10 30 30 10 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas- Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Grant-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson- Lonoke-Monroe-Perry-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-Woodruff. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone- Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha- Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard- Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe- Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski- Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell. && $$ Short Term...66 / Long Term...61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
222 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat probable for parts of the area beginning Sunday. Some relief from the heat is possible by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN) The two forecast problems of the day are for the weather near the Scherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County and the heat wave expected to start this Sunday. High-resolution model solutions continue to suggest that Sundowner Winds will pick back up later this afternoon and into the evening. Right now it looks like localized gusts to 35-kts along Santa Barbara`s South Coast and up to 40-kts in the Santa Barbara mountains. Winds at the Refugio RAWS are only about half that of yesterday`s as of 1 pm. Will continue to monitor these winds closely and evaluate the necessity of an advisory later this afternoon. The latest model solutions suggest weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but stronger winds are possible again on Saturday afternoon and evening. The advertised battle between the upper-level trough of low pressure near the Pacific Northwest and the upper-level ridge of high pressure over South Texas seems to have been won by the ridge in our forecast area as there is little to no cloud cover anywhere to be seen. This ridge should expand and build westward into New Mexico through Saturday. As it does the 500-mb heights will rise and the 1000-500 mb thickness values will climb as onshore pressure gradients weaken. In light of this, the best chance of marine layer stratus clouds will occur through tonight on the San Luis Obispo central coast, then it will become hard- pressed to get any low cloud formation. The strong ridging aloft builds into the region even more on Sunday as the heat wave event begins. GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures across the region, with the exception of the immediate coastal areas. .LONG TERM...(MON-THU) Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat Watch for will remain in place. There is a chance that this heatwave could the warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and temperatures across the region. Model solutions for for Tuesday through next Thursday develop a southeast flow aloft. A monsoonal-like surge could develop after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions with some elevated moisture now added into latter half of next week. An isolated afternoon thunderstorm is not impossible beginning Wednesday, but certainly not likely as it looks to remain dry at the lower levels. && .AVIATION...16/1800Z. Mid/upper level trough of low pressure upstream will persist while a ridge of high pressure centered south of the area shifts north. Upper level moderate southwest winds will become strong southwest after 17/00z while mid level moderate west-southwest winds becoming light south after 17/17z over the area. Weak to moderate onshore pressure gradient through 17/05z and after 17/20z otherwise weak northerly gradient. Weak capping marine inversion at LAX with isolated cloud field south of the area will change little Friday. Marine layer at LAX at 1500Z is 2338 feet deep and the inversion top is at 3523 feet with a temp of 12.8 degrees C. KLAX...chance current sky/vsby conditions will persist through period. KBUR...Very likely current sky/vsby will persist through the period. virtually certain - 95-100% very likely - 80-95% likely - 60-80% chance - 30-60% very unlikely - 20% OR LESS && .MARINE...16/200 PM. Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below 10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is expected during the remainder of this week and the swells generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220 will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are likely. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...JLD AVIATION...30 MARINE...30 SYNOPSIS...JLD weather.gov/losangeles
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on the larger lakes could reach 3 feet. Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest simulations push one final wave across northern California and northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen National Park. Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower 80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in the Sierra valleys. Brong .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100 degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday, with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by Tuesday afternoon. For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance. These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection), today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east, limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs, so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD && .AVIATION... Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday afternoon. For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and obscuration of higher peaks. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 203 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into Friday. Rain and mountain snow showers are possible north of Interstate 80 this evening and again late Friday night and Saturday morning. Summer conditions will return Sunday with potential for afternoon highs to reach 100 degrees by Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Persistent low off the Pacific northwest coast may remain in place until Saturday based on latest simulations. Winds for this evening into Saturday will be lighter than the last couple days with peak gusts up to 35 mph. Boating conditions on area lakes will remain hazardous, always check conditions before heading out as waves on the larger lakes could reach 3 feet. Precipitation chances for Friday will be confined to Lassen and Plumas counties as the flow aloft turns toward the south. Latest simulations push one final wave across northern California and northwest Nevada late Friday night and Saturday morning. Best chances for precipitation is north of I-80, with another 0.25 inch of liquid possible. The southerly flow will help increase snow levels to above 7500-8000 feet, so not looking at any snow impacts except on mountain peaks and those heading into Lassen National Park. Afternoon highs will slowly warm each day and may reach the lower 80s across the Nevada valleys by Saturday. Highs in the Sierra will slowly climb into the 70s, with sub-freezing lows possible in the Sierra valleys. Brong .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... Significant warming trend is still on tap for Sunday as ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb to near 90 degrees in lower elevations, and 75-80 degrees for the Sierra valleys. The warming trend will continue through Monday and Tuesday, with some of the warmer valleys possibly reaching 100 degrees by Tuesday. Generally light winds are expected Sunday, with weak late day zephyr-type breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) returning Monday-Tuesday. Dry conditions with minimal cloud cover are expected each day, with some flat cumulus development possible by Tuesday afternoon. For next Wednesday-Thursday, some differences in the strength of the ridge over western NV show up on the medium range guidance. These uncertainties would affect how many locations end up reaching 100 degrees, and also whether isolated convection would develop each afternoon and evening. While the previous guidance favored the hotter scenario (also more favorable for convection), today`s guidance trended a little cooler but still well above average. Another trough approaching the Pacific Northwest by the middle of next week may keep the ridge a bit farther to the east, limiting the 100 degree temperatures to west central NV, mainly near and east of US-95. As for thunder chances, they still look rather slim (unless the hottest scenario occurs) so we did not add any mention of thunder, but we did increase cumulus both days especially south of Us-50. This back and forth positioning of the ridge and trough is likely to continue with upcoming model runs, so forecast confidence is a bit lower for later next week. MJD && .AVIATION... Gusty sfc winds of 25-30 kt will continue each afternoon through Friday, then decrease slightly Saturday. Stronger ridge level winds will continue at times through early Saturday, with gusts ranging from 50-65 kt. This will keep mountain wave turbulence going with associated rotor activity possibly producing periods of erratic wind directions around KRNO-KCXP-KMMH through late Friday afternoon. For the main terminals, VFR conditions are expected through Saturday, although there is about a 10-20 percent chance of brief rain showers moving across KTRK this evening. Light rain showers are possible into northeast CA-northwest NV including KSVE tonight through early Saturday, possibly producing MVFR cigs and obscuration of higher peaks. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 156 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to bring cooler than normal temperatures today through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern valley this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Building high pressure will bring a return of hot temperatures by mid week. .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated a broad upper level low system just off the coast of the Pacific northwest, which is providing increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures across the region. A dry slot moving into the region kept showers and thunderstorms from developing, including lower snow amounts in the northern Sierra. Short term model forecasts had a tough time today with the dry slot aloft, so nearly every model was erroneous with placement and timing of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As a result, the immediate short term forecast was a tough one. Greatest chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms are for the northern mountains and northern valley locations today. Model soundings and surface forecasts show dry air aloft that could translate to surface wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms, if they develop. Storm chances will continue through Friday and Saturday. A building high pressure from the south will begin to influence the NorCal area Sunday, and temperatures will return to near normal in the low 90s in the valley and 60s and 70s for the higher elevations. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday) Model guidance suggests an upper level ridge building across western U.S. early next week. Daytime highs will likely range 10-15 degrees above normal. The Tuesday- Thursday period looks to be the warmest of the week, with widespread low 100s across the Valley. Residents should remember to stay hydrated next week, given the potential heat impacts. IDM/JBB && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions across TAF sites over the next 24 hours. The exception will be brief MVFR/IFR periods in showers or thunderstorms, generally over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains. Showers will diminish tonight. IDM/JBB && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
145 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonal weather, with only patchy marine layer clouds and fog at best, will continue through Friday. A high pressure ridge will strengthen this weekend and bring very hot weather Sunday through at least early next week. High temperatures will be well above normal, possibly breaking several records, with Monday being the hottest day. A slow cooling trend is expected by the middle of next week as the upper ridge weakens. Some monsoonal moisture could bring an afternoon thunderstorm or two to the mountains late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Visible satellite shows clear skies across Southern California, while a large plume of smoke coming from a wildfire in Santa Barbara can be seen moving over the waters and into portions of the forecast area. A ridge starting to build over the region today is producing higher temperatures today, with temperatures currently 5-10 degrees higher than 24 hours ago across much of the area. Water vapor satellite currently shows a trough over the Pacific Northwest and a ridge to our southeast, with upper level southwest flow over us. Models are in very good agreement with the ridge building to the northwest over the next several days, resulting in increasingly warmer days and an increasingly shallow marine layer. The weather heats up significantly on Sunday, with highs reaching 10-20 degrees above normal. One potential forecast difficulty for Sunday relates to the some high clouds which the models show moving over the area that day. Whether those potential clouds will be widespread and thick enough to reduce temperatures remains to be seen. The ridge axis appears to be peak over the four corners on Monday at 600 DM, with 597 DM 500 mb heights extending possibly to our coastal areas. Also, Monday is when there could be some weak offshore flow which would help bring hotter conditions to near the immediate coast. Just how hot it gets at the immediate coast will depend on if those offshore winds can make it to the coast early enough before the sea breeze kicks in during the afternoon bringing cooler ocean air inland. By Monday, the ridge should be strong enough over the region to completely squash the marine layer, but other than that day, some night and morning low clouds/fog could occur at times at the beaches. Monday looks like the overall hottest day of the heat wave, when max temperatures reach 15-20, and almost 25 degrees above normal in some locations. Looks like several daily high temperature records could be broken on Sunday, and even more on Monday. In fact, a couple stations may break all time high temperatures for the month of June on Monday. Highs on Monday are currently forecast to be in the mid-80s at the beaches and around 90 a few miles inland. Further away from the coast in Orange and San Diego counties, highs will be around 97 to 107, 105 to 115 in the Inland Empire and high desert, mid 80s to upper 90s in the mountains, and 115 to 120 in the low deserts. The morning lows being higher than normal will only exacerbate the problems with the heat, especially in the lower deserts where morning lows may only fall to the upper 80s/low 90s. Temperatures are likely to lower a bit Tuesday west of the mountains due to slight weakening of the ridge and some high level moisture moving up through the area which could bring some cloud cover to the region. However, it will still be quite hot for areas away from the coast. It will remain hot through the rest of next week, but likely not quite as hot as Sunday-Monday-Tuesday, as the ridge continues to gradually weaken. This may allow a shallow marine layer to re-develop, so cooling will mainly take place along the coast and somewhat in the valleys, while mountain and desert areas remain hot with 594 mb heights associated with the ridge lingering over the forecast area through the end of the work week. The Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for all areas except the Orange and San Diego county coasts. With the ridge axis orienting itself northwest to southeast over the four corners on Wednesday-Thursday, marginally moist southeasterly flow aloft could result in afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains both of those days. For now, have added slight chance for showers/t-storms for a few high terrain locations for Wednesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... 162030Z...Coast/Valleys...Skc conds will continue through this evening. Sct/Bkn low clouds will redevelop again tonight and push up to 5 miles inland aft 17/0600z. Bases around 1000 FT MSL and tops 1500 FT MSL. These clouds are expected to be rather disorganized, so have included a TEMPO group in the KSAN, KSNA,and KOKB TAFS. This patchy stratus layer will dissipate by 17/1500z. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Friday. Gusty west winds 20-30 KT this afternoon again Friday afternoon on desert mountain slopes, through the San Gorgonio Pass, and into the northern Coachella Valley. && .MARINE... 200 PM...Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 kts over the Outer Waters through this evening. No hazardous marine weather is expected Friday through Sunday. && .BEACHES... 200 PM...A 4-foot, 17 second southerly swell will continue through this evening, bringing elevated surf to local beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Orange County for surf of 5 to 7 ft with occasional sets to 9 ft and strong rip currents. In San Diego County, the surf will be lower, so a Beach Hazards Statement will continue in effect for surf of 3 to 6 feet, locally reaching 7 feet at times with Strong longshore currents at the beaches as well. The swell and surf will gradually lower Friday through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation will not be needed today. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Harrison AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 144 PM MST THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The large Pacific low pressure system along the west coast that had kept afternoon temperatures below normal for the past six days will weaken today. As a result, a high pressure system will slowly build over the region through Friday, then intensify Saturday through next week. Record high temperatures and dangerous high heat Sunday through Wednesday has prompted the issuance of an excessive Heat Warning. && .DISCUSSION... CONUS satellite imagery this early afternoon depicts a broad area of high pressure building over the Plains and into the central Canadian provinces. High pressure will strengthen and expand so much so it will begin to retrograde and build back towards the Southwest/Intermountain West states by the late weekend and early next week. This due to anomalously strong trough heights over the western Atlantic and East Coast. But for today and Friday, gradually increasing ML/UL heights will promote a subtle warm-up, with seasonable temperatures and some afternoon breeziness. With weak surface pressure gradients, winds will follow fairly typical terrain-driven diurnal headings. Easterly down drainage winds (in particular the Salt River drainage) from the higher terrain northeast/east of Phoenix will allow some smoke from the Cedar Creek Fire, located southwest of Show Low, to make its way into the Valley. Included mention of patchy smoke through portions of the East and North Phx Valleys as well as the valleys of southern Gila county for Friday and Saturday mornings. Saturday through Wednesday... The expanding high pressure system over the region will build to levels not seen in a while, meaning record heat especially Sunday through Wednesday. Temperatures will make a very drastic upward swing, warming 15 to 20 degrees over readings from the last few days. Athough Saturday will be hot on the south central AZ deserts and mountains, afternoon temperatures were marginal for a heat warning, and considerable high cloudiness forecast may result in slightly lower temperatures readings. In fact, this area of cloudiness will be some moisture advection through the mid and upper levels from an area of potential tropical development off the Manzanillo coast currently. Strong subsident ridge flow will remain over much of the southern CONUS into next week, maintaining concern for a long duration heat event for many in the lower desert locations. One caveat though, models are forecasting increasing low level moisture from Mexico late Mon through Wed. 850 mb dewpoints are forecast to go positive this period under increasing south winds. Increasing humidities may limit the upper end of the diurnal curve, while also boosting the lower end and making for some warm overnight lows. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures late this week through early next week: Date Phoenix Yuma ---- ------- ---- June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015 June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960 June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008 June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968 June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960 Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time: Rank Phoenix Yuma ---- ------- ---- 1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995 2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950 3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990 4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on Aug 27 1981 5) 118 on several days 120 on June 24 1957 && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Dry southwesterly flow will keep skies clear through the period. Winds will follow normal diurnal directional trends, remaining on the lighter side around 5 to 10 mph, with a few afternoon gusts up to 20 mph over KBLH. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday... Very hot temperatures will persist across the region, with the hottest days on Sunday and Monday, with lower desert temperatures rising into the 115-120 degrees. Although winds will remain on the light side on Sunday and Monday, very dry conditions (minimum humidities in the mid to upper single digits) with fair to poor overnight recoveries, and Haines Index values between 5 and 6 will result in elevated fire danger levels. Tuesday through Thursday, a slight increase in humidities (in the upper single-digit to mid-teen range) along with slightly cooler temperatures will help to reduce the fire danger levels. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ020>028. CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ031>033. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...Nolte/Vasquez CLIMATE...MO AVIATION...Hernandez FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1106 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward from the Desert Southwest. && && .DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay. However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but something to keep an eye on. && .PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday... High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine influence. Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler across our area by then. && .AVIATION...as of 11:00 AM PDT Thursday...Based off of the latest models plus radar, newest TAF package has shra/VCSH removed from all spots except STS. Winds still forecast to generally become 230 to 260 after 20Z with speeds under 12 KT. Tonight is a more difficult call with MVFR possibly returning although not very confident about the heights. High confidence through 06Z with low to moderate confidence after that. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the day with possible MVFR returning after 06Z. Winds generally 230 to 260 today and under 10 KT. High confidence through 05Z. Low to moderate after that. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the day with possible MVFR returning after 03Z. Winds generally 250 to 280 with speeds up to 10 KT. High confidence through 03Z. Low to moderate confidence after that. && .MARINE...as of 10:53 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the day along with a few showers. the winds will switch to the northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. seas are expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell. however...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near offshore reefs and sand bars. the surface pressure gradient will strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: Bell MARINE: Bell Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
922 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Four Corners Region this weekend and expand westward. An associated warming trend will develop through the weekend with dangerous heat probable for parts of the area beginning Sunday. Some relief from the heat is possible by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT) Gusty northerly winds continue across the area where the Scherpa Fire is burning, especially west of Goleta to Gaviota. 8am observation from Refugio RAWS had northerly winds of 27 mph with gusts to 38. High-resolution model solutions suggest winds will continue to weaken throughout the morning but pick back up around 2pm this afternoon. Another round of gusty Sundowner Winds is forecast for this afternoon and tonight although it looks to be at least 7 mph weaker than last night`s. Will evaluate another Wind Advisory for the area as the afternoon approaches. *** From Previous Discussion *** Southwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a battle is waged between an upper-level trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest Coast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure over South Texas. Some clouds associated with the trough`s weakening cold front are off the Central Coast this morning, but the ridge`s influence should start to win out keep most of the clouds and moisture north of the area in Monterey County. Onshore flow will weaken through the weekend as the high pressure system over South Texas expands and builds westward into New Mexico through Saturday. 500 mb heights rise and 1000-500 mb thickness values climb through the end of the week as onshore pressure gradients weaken. The marine layer depth will thin progressively into Saturday. The best chance of marine layer stratus clouds will occur through tonight, then it will become hard-pressed to get any low cloud formation. Temperatures have been nudged slightly higher for Friday and Saturday as model solutions are warming the air mass slightly in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A northerly surface gradient will remain in place and bring locally gusty winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across Southern Santa Barbara County. The latest model solutions suggest slightly weaker Sundowner winds Friday afternoon and evening, but stronger winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM BUFR time height sections are falling inline with this idea suggesting the strongest wind core just off the surface of KSBA on Saturday evening. While Friday`s winds look marginal, a Wind Advisory may be needed for Saturday afternoon and night when the timing and run-to-run consistency issues clear. .LONG TERM...(SUN-WED) Strong ridging aloft builds into the region on Sunday and Monday. GFS model solutions continue to offer up near record temperatures across the region. Afternoon high temperatures approach dangerous levels Monday and Tuesday across the area with poor diurnal cooling taking place in the overnight hours. An Excessive Heat Watch will remain in place for now. Temperatures were nudged higher from Sunday through Tuesday to bring the forecast a tad more inline with local temperature studies. If GFS solutions play out as progged, this will likely be the warmest June heatwave in almost a decade. There is a chance that this heatwave could the warmest June event in over a decade with widespread record heat occurring on Monday and maybe Tuesday. GEFS/NAEFS solutions suggest a 30 year return interval for low levels heights and temperatures across the region. A little less clarity exists for Tuesday through next Thursday as model solutions start to develop a southeast flow aloft for middle portion of next week. A monsoonal surge could develop after Tuesday with the possibility of continuing hot conditions with humidity now added into latter half of next week. To pay more attention to the short-term impacts with the Scherpa Fire and the hot conditions through the weekend, the latter half of next week was broad-brushed for now to allow for better timing and clarity. && .AVIATION...16/1220Z. At 12Z, a weak marine inversion at KLAX was around 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4600 ft with a temperature near 14 degrees Celsius. moderate confidence with vfr conds this morning in most areas...but less confidence for cigs tonight. Kept skies mostly VFR overnight...but should see some mvfr or high IFR cigs late tonight for LA coastal areas. Less confident for coastal valleys and Central Coast. KLAX...There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conditions between 09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Any east winds should remain less than 6 knots. KBUR...high confidence in 12z taf. 30 percent chance for high ifr/low mvfr cigs after 10z tonight. && .MARINE...16/900 AM. Northwest winds will likely increase from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island as well as over the west portion of the Santa Barbara channel this afternoon and prevail through late tonight and again Friday afternoon and prevail through late Friday night and small craft advisory conditions will exist. Northwest winds will likely increase Saturday and prevail through Tuesday and small craft advisory conditions will exist from Piedras Blancas to San Nicolas Island. Northwest locally generated steep seas will build Saturday night and persist through Tuesday but remain below 10 feet. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean last week had generated seas within 190-210 degrees relative to Ventura. The swells will peak today. An active storm track is expected during the remainder of this week and the swells generated from the expected storm force fetch areas from 190-220 will begin to arrive next week Tuesday and build through next Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions are not expected but extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are likely. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening For zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening For zones 41-44>46-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday evening For zones 51>54. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday For zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...JLD AVIATION...30 MARINE...30 SYNOPSIS...JLD weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 901 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough along the West Coast will maintain cooler than normal temperatures through Friday. A late season cold front will also bring showers to Northern California late today. A warming trend is then expected to begin this weekend and persist into early next week as high pressure builds westward from the Desert Southwest. && && .DISCUSSION...as of 08:59 AM PDT Thursday...Main focus this morning will be on the first 12-18 hours as precip will be possible over portions of the Bay Area. KMUX radar imagery is already showing a few radar returns moving into the North Bay. However, compared to 24 hours ago the latest model guidance is now down playing rain chances today. Yesterday`s models had pretty widespread showers and the current HRRR, WRF and RAP models keep most of the precip north of KSFO. Based on latest radar trends and near term models have updated the forecast to fine tune rain chances. The morning update will keep rain chances mainly north of KSFO and removed any mention of rain to the south. The only fly in the ointment so to speak is the WRF model does show a few isolated showers south of KSFO as the tail end of the boundary tonight. Confidence is to low to include it in the forecast, but something to keep an eye on. && .PREV DISCUSSION...as of 3:05 AM PDT Thursday... High pressure is forecast to build westward into Southern California from the Desert Southwest late in the weekend. The hottest temperatures associated with this ridge will be over far Southern California, hot temperatures will work their way into inland areas of our CWA as well, especially interior Monterey and San Benito counties by Monday and Tuesday. By Monday high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s across inland areas, with warmest areas soaring over 100 degrees. A few degrees of additional warming is expected on Tuesday. Near-coastal areas will stay cooler thanks to sea breeze winds and a marine influence. Medium range models keep the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest through next week although temperatures will be slightly cooler across our area by then. && .AVIATION...as of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Mid and high clouds are streaming into the area this morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This low pressure system will bring the possibility of showers to the San Francisco bay area and north, the best chance of showers will be in the Santa Rosa area. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with sct030 bases and bkn050 cigs. Showers will be possible from 2100z into the afternoon hours. Confidence is moderate for cigs and winds. Confidence is low for shower activity. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today with westerly winds reaching 8 to 12 kt. Confidence is high. && .MARINE...as of 08:47 AM PDT Thursday...A weak area of low pressure will keep southerly winds through the waters most of the day along with a few showers. The winds will switch to the northwest by this evening as the low moves inland. Seas are expected to be gentle featuring a mixed swell. However...occasional breakers to 10 feet will be possible near offshore reefs and sand bars. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen on saturday resulting in increasing winds for the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: Larry MARINE: Bell Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 The mid-level ridge remained anchored across the central U.S., with southerly surface winds in place as the CWA was wedged between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the southeast. Some cloud cover lingered across far east central Kansas due to the precipitation from the morning MCV. As a result, afternoon temperatures there were a few degrees cooler than originally forecast, but readings reached near 100 degrees across north central Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat indices ranged from the mid 90s east to 100-105 degrees across north central and central Kansas. A weak convergence zone was noted in northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, with visible satellite showing some shallow cumulus popping up. With some isentropic lift present on the 310K surface, the HRRR and RAP show the potential for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms popping up across southeast Kansas late this afternoon into this evening, and this activity may extend northward into east central Kansas. As a result, have added slight chance PoPs. Mesoscale analysis showed little to no cap in place with 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, so if storms are able to develop they may be strong. However, wind shear continues to look weak at 20kts or less so it should be difficult for storms to sustain themselves for long. The main hazards with any strong storms would be hail and gusty winds. With the ridge still in place, expect another hot day tomorrow. However, models show 850mb temperatures being slightly cooler compared to today. As a result, have Friday high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler across north central/central Kansas with readings expected to range from the mid 90s east to the upper 90s west. Models are still showing dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s to low/mid 70s, which would push afternoon heat indices into the 103 to 108 degree range. As a result, the Excessive Heat Watch for Friday has been upgraded to a Heat Advisory for the entire outlook area. A somewhat stationary boundary may be in place across central Kansas by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This nearby boundary combined with an embedded shortwave within the mid-level ridge across north central Kansas may help to produce some scattered storms by mid to late afternoon. Due to the low confidence in the timing and location of any storms, only have slight chance PoPs at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 Friday Night through Sunday... Friday evening and overnight provides an interesting low-probability setup with potential for thunderstorm development across parts of the area. Expect extreme mid level lapse rates across the entire region, but the location and extent of instability will depend on quality of low level moisture. Right now this appears to be better focused to the southwest, or at least over SW parts of the forecast area with a pretty good MUCAPE gradient increasing from NE to SW across the region. There are signs of convergent flow in the low levels and on a weak low level jet during the evening and overnight hours from NW into central and SE Kansas and this added moisture convergence could be sufficient for thunderstorm development in the evening. Furthermore, there is upslope flow focused into NE Colorado and SE Nebraska and if this allows convection to grow upscale and organize a cold pool in this area, could see it propagating along the convergence zone toward central KS. Again, this is low probability, but there is a chance for either or both scenarios to play out through Friday night. Saturday looks to be slightly cooler with flow from the southeast being a bit cooler although with neutral or slight moisture advection. Have also forecast a bit cooler due to potential for some cloud debris during the day as well. Current forecast is for heat indices to a bit lower but still have some potential to be quite hot if staying clear and/or higher dewpoints. With the excessive heat watch already in effect, will maintain it as-is through Sunday as things look a bit warmer yet for Sunday and with a much better chance of being capped off to convection and precipitation and cloud free. Sunday Night through Thursday... Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period. Monday appears to be the warmest day within the extended period with high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indicies approaching 100. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning, knocking high temperatures back into the upper 80s to near 90. Thunderstorm chances also return with the frontal passage. Model guidance suggests slight thunderstorm chances will be continue through the remainder of the period as an upper level trough across the Great Lakes region skirts the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds prevailing out of the south-southeast. There may be a few wind gusts near 20kts early this afternoon at KMHK. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026- 034>040-054>056-058-059. Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Baerg AVIATION...Hennecke