Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/15/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
820 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
No updates needed this evening. Ridge of high pressure aloft over
Colorado with dry and stable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 818 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Surface winds shifting Southeast at local terminals and will
gradually shift more South and Southwest towards midnight. Skies
clearing this evening with no impacts expected.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
546 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
448 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 448 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at area forecast terminals over the
next 24 hours. Winds will be the bigger problem by Wednesday
afternoon with gusts over 25 mph from the west to southwest
becoming common after 1300.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through Wednesday.
Westerly winds this afternoon with sustained speeds between 6-12
knots, gusts up to 20knots - stronger gusts expected closer to
the foothills such as at KBJC. Winds should diminish after sunset
and become drainage, then pick up out of the south-southeast
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
203 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions
to be noted over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday
morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1057 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200>203-
207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200>203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1020 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Slightly stronger winds late this morning than forecasted, have
adjusted grids and forecast to show this. Otherwise, forecast is
on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in the 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance
of a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1020 MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down today with speeds
between 10-15 knots, stronger closer to the foothills such as at
KBJC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1005 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Could
see a period of briefly gusty S-SW winds at the terminals in the
afternoon, with a few gusts to 25 kts at KALS from 19z-00z.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to adjust the forecast based on the latest radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the Kansas border and will continue to track east through 2
am. Hail to the size of dimes and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish by, or shortly
after 06z with dry weather persisting through 18Z. A few
thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain after 18Z,
persisting through 02Z/Wednesday. This activity is unlikely to
impact airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah over the
next 24 hours. Consequently, look for VFR conditions with CIGS
remaining above ILS breakpoints through the period. However,
expect winds to become breezy from the southwest during the
afternoon with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH across much of the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
Currently, 20Z WV imagery shows a weak shortwave over extreme
eastern Nebraska with a stationary boundary at the surface near the
highway 81 corridor as a rough location. East of this boundary,
afternoon convective temp has been reached generally along and east
of the I-335 corridor and south of I-70. No lightning has been
occurring with these showers and tops are generally around 20kft.
These multicells should eventually dissipate after 5-6pm tonight.
Longer wave vort lobe is out west over the Desert Southwest with a
lead shortwave over the Central Rockies. These two pieces of energy
will define the next 24 hours.
Expecting the lead wave to pull out of the Central Rockies late this
evening as storms develop along the foothills of the Rockies and
grow upscale eventually into an MCS as the LLJ kicks in later this
evening. Overnight, the LLJ will be the focus to keep the MCS going
along with the upper level support. By morning, mid level lapse
rates seem to be less than conditionally unstable and the LLJ should
weaken, so expecting the remnants of the MCS to work into
northeastern KS. However, there could still be a few stronger
storms capable of hail and gusty winds with this activity.
Depending on where any outflow boundaries set up and linger through
Tuesday will likely be the focus for afternoon development as this
forecast will depend on trailing stratus to clear at least enough to
allow the atmosphere to recover. As the main wave pulls out of the
Rockies and into the Northern Plains, expecting mid level lapse
rates steepen to 7-8C/km, 0-6km shear increases to 40-50kts and will
move overhead the forecast area under mid 70C dewpoints at the
surface. This will allow for surface based CAPE values to be above
probably 3000-3500J/kg. Current hodographs in the afternoon time
frame do appear to be favorable for supercell structures. Again,
previous outflow boundaries could play a role as well, allowing for
surface winds to be backed. Therefore, the main threat is likely to
be very large hail if supercells form, strong gusty winds and also a
tornado risk. However, the 0-1 shear and effective SRH may not be
ideal at least looking 24 hours out. All in all, this will be the
most active weather day in recent time by far. But there are a few
factors that need to come together, so the forecast will likely need
updates after the morning MCS impacts the area. Expecting that
severe storms that do fire would be after the 3PM time frame and
last into the early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
Main concern will be ongoing convection across the area Tuesday
evening. Northeast Kansas will be on the southern end of a shortwave
trough moving across the Missouri Valley tuesday evening. The upper
trough axis moves through eastern Kansas during the evening hours.
Frontal boundary/dryline looks to be across central Kansas into
eastern Nebraska at 00Z Wednesday. Shear and instability look
favorable for a large hail event along with strong winds. Forecast
hodographs show some potential for tornadoes during the evening
hours. An upper level ridge builds into the Central Plains through
Thursday. Dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s along with highs in
the 90s will produce heat indices in the 99 to 106 degree range
Wednesday and again on Thursday.
By Thursday evening, an expansive ridge will be over the central US
keeping the weather relatively quiet Friday through the weekend. The
next likely chance for thunderstorms looks to be Sunday night into
Monday associated with a boundary near the area. Temperatures will
be hot through the weekend with heat indicies over 100 degrees both
Friday and Saturday. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along
Interstate-335 through the afternoon hours. Therefore, have a
mention of VCTS at the Topeka terminals through 22Z. The big
question mark for the period is the evolution of the MCS
overnight into tomorrow morning. Current thinking is the complex
will go north of all the terminals. Although, any deviation to the
south could bring TSRA/VCTS to all terminals near dawn Tuesday
morning.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Heller/53
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Main concern is convective potential throughout the period.
Confidence is low that any of the models have a good handle, but
midday RAP seemed to be the best fit to anticipated evolution.
Current theory is that convection in Southeast KS will continue
to bubble until sunset, with combo of heating and location ahead
of weak mid level boundary evident on morning upper air analysis.
Meanwhile convection appears likely in Western Nebraska and
potentially into Colorado/Western KS this evening. Am not
inclined to believe most models showing due east movement given
what happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient,
although slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit
southern extent. Went slower than previous forecast moving
precipitation in tonight, mostly likely reaching Central KS closer
to midnight and then into South Central KS around daybreak.
Whether precipitation holds together and amount of areal coverage
is questionable given lack of good baroclinic zone or upper wave.
Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday:
Tuesday afternoon is a wild card with much depending on extent
and track of convection Monday night/Tuesday morning. In absence
of extensive precipitation/clouds over the area, conditions would
favor a higher end severe threat. However if models are correct
with extensive precipitation in NE KS in the morning, the outflow
could either enhance or nix thunderstorm chances in Southeast KS,
depending on how far south it goes. Temperatures will be highly
dependent on amount of convective debris. May flirt with heat
advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday along OK border in
Southeast KS. Given high uncertainty in precipitation, opted to
not go with a headline. Maxes on Wednesday should be warmer as
500MB ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures possibly a degree
or two cooler on Thursday. Capping/lack of forcing should shut
down precipitation chances on both Wednesday/Thursday. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Little change to initialization grids. Given anticipated 1000-850
thicknesses, did shave a degree off maxes on Friday and upped
maxes in the Sunday/Monday. Chances for precipitation this period
look to be slim. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Main aviation concern will be overnight storms.
Very moist airmass remains in place across the region. Isolated
storms will be possible this afternoon mainly east of I-135 with
this activity expected to remain too isolated to insert into TAFS.
Storms are expected to develop over western KS late this afternoon
and early this evening and work east overnight. A this point it
still looks like central KS will have the highest chance at storms
generally after 05z, but can`t rule out storms making it as far
south as KICT. Large hail and severe winds will be possible with
overnight storms. Just like this morning, could see some lower
clouds develop, but confidence is fairly low in this occurring so
will just run with some mvfr levels as this time.
Lawson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 73 97 72 99 / 30 30 20 10
Hutchinson 72 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10
Newton 72 95 71 99 / 30 30 20 10
ElDorado 73 93 71 97 / 20 30 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 74 96 73 98 / 20 20 20 10
Russell 67 92 66 100 / 50 30 10 10
Great Bend 69 93 67 100 / 50 30 10 10
Salina 72 95 68 100 / 40 30 10 10
McPherson 71 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10
Coffeyville 71 95 74 96 / 20 30 30 10
Chanute 71 93 73 96 / 20 30 40 10
Iola 70 92 72 96 / 20 30 40 10
Parsons-KPPF 71 93 74 96 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
334 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
Dry pattern of late starts to adjust through the short term as
convection off the high plains and an approaching upper system start
to drive rain chances further eastward into our area. Current
overnight convection out over the high plains is forecast to
continue to dissipate over the next several hours, but will likely
leave shortwave energy behind as it does so. Also can see showers
popping up near the KS/OK border in response to storm outflows to
the SE. Given that atmosphere is weakly capped at best, with these
features making their ways east and north, will carry slight
chances for storms this morning and increase to chances this
afternoon. Could see a break later this evening before the next
round of convection moves in from the west, and have higher
overnight chances for possible MCS for the western counties. Highs
a few degrees cooler today in the middle to upper 80s and overnight
lows again near 70.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
Sunrise on Tuesday morning the low level jet will be centered
over central KS, and nosing into southern NE. This should be the
location for the remnants of the nocturnal MCS that forms in
western KS. The low level jet will be in the weakening phase, and
should no longer provide a focus for moisture and lift. Most of
the models show this precip trying to move into portions of
eastern KS in the late morning hours. In order for this to occur
there would have to be a cold pool strong enough to get parcels to
the LFC, or an MCV that forms overnight. The main issue with any
lingering precip and clouds will be the recovery time for
afternoon convection. This is when the mid level trough lifts out
over the plains and pushes a front/dry line through the area.
If the environment is able to recover things could play out like the
following. There will be plenty of moisture ahead of the
front/dryline with dewpoints in to lower to mid 70s. Although there
has to be enough surface heating to weaken the cap for when the
forcing arrives with the boundary. The southern most extend of the
shortwave energy passes right over the area, which should limit
the forcing somewhat. If storms form along the front/dry line the
weaker forcing should keep the coverage isolated to scattered.
Mlcape in the warm sector should be in excess of 3000 j/kg, and
the wave will provide deep layer shear around 30 to 40 kts. This
combination will support supercells capable of very large hail and
damaging wind. Despite the vertical wind profile showing more of a
straight line hodograph the extreme instability along with shear
will pose the risk for tornadoes as well. That being said any
potential outflow and or dry line bulge could provide localized
backed winds and a more favorable environment for tornadoes. The
best time for storms to develop will be between 4-7 pm, and
location will depend on the frontal position. Again, any leftover
outflows could initiate convection earlier in the day. As of now
the entire northeast KS is at risk for severe storms. Precip
should clear the area by midnight as the main system lifts into
the Midwest.
The upper ridge quickly builds back over the plains and 850 temps
soar to 25-30 C. Surface dew points will remain in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, and temperatures reach the upper 90s to near 100. This
will set the stage for heat indices in 100-107 range Wednesday
through Friday with the hottest day on Thursday. A front may try to
sneak into the area on Monday as a mid level wave over the northern
US suppresses the ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
VFR prevails at terminals. Areas over southeast KS that observed
rainfall earlier may see restricted vis and ceilings lifting
northward aft 09Z, but dont believe this will reach the
terminals, however there could be MVFR fog lingering once again
just prior to sunrise. Storms develop west of sites after 00Z, and
should remain west of sites through 06Z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The only mesoscale model that seems to have a clue is the ARW. This
model is doing fairly well with the current MCS that is traversing across
the forecast district. As a result, heavily biased the POP arrangement
to this model. The general gist is that the current MCS will clear
the area later this morning. Additional development is possible across
southeast Colorado in association with the upslope regime. There are
a few questions though. 1) how will the surface boundaries evolve? This
will determine where the greatest tornado threat will be located. 2)
Will the atmosphere recover? With this large MCS that is moving across
right now, I question if the atmosphere can recover. Typically, the
atmosphere seemed to be "worked over" in situations like this and the
chance of severe goes down the toilet. Despite this, the ARW does show
convection moving into the southwest zones this evening. If the atmosphere
does recover, there should be enough cape and definitely enough shear
for severe. Think the main threats are hail up to 2" (that is probably
being liberal with the hail size) and 60 to 70 mph outflows. Depending
on how boundaries evolve, there may be an isolated tornado threat as
low level winds back along the boundary. In conclusion, put severe
wording along and west of Highway 83. Lastly, with all the more exciting
weather generally occurring in Colorado, there could be another MCS
rolling through across the northern zones late tonight and into Tuesday
morning. Pops have been increased significantly to depict this ARW solution.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Hot and dry. The story with Tuesday onward, is that a strong 590 dm
ridge will build across the Great Plains. By Saturday, that ridge builds
to 599 dm across the southern Rockies. The net result is a dry forecast.
Temperatures will remain hot with 90s to start out on Tuesday and then
low 100s by Wednesday. These hot temperatures will prevail through the
rest of the long term domain. There may be isolated storms and a slight
cool down by the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR expected through TAF pd. Will have to watch and amend for convection
through the overnight, but it is on weakening trend. KGCK could see
renewed convection again tomorrow evening. Winds SE/S 5-15 kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 69 96 66 / 30 50 10 10
GCK 92 66 94 62 / 30 70 10 0
EHA 90 64 94 62 / 40 40 0 0
LBL 92 68 97 65 / 30 30 10 0
HYS 88 68 91 64 / 40 70 30 10
P28 92 72 97 70 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The only mesoscale model that seems to have a clue is the ARW. This
model is doing fairly well with the current MCS that is traversing across
the forecast district. As a result, heavily biased the POP arrangement
to this model. The general gist is that the current MCS will clear
the area later this morning. Additional development is possible across
southeast Colorado in association with the upslope regime. There are
a few questions though. 1) how will the surface boundaries evolve? This
will determine where the greatest tornado threat will be located. 2)
Will the atmosphere recover? With this large MCS that is moving across
right now, I question if the atmosphere can recover. Typically, the
atmosphere seemed to be "worked over" in situations like this and the
chance of severe goes down the toilet. Despite this, the ARW does show
convection moving into the southwest zones this evening. If the atmosphere
does recover, there should be enough cape and definitely enough shear
for severe. Think the main threats are hail up to 2" (that is probably
being liberal with the hail size) and 60 to 70 mph outflows. Depending
on how boundaries evolve, there may be an isolated tornado threat as
low level winds back along the boundary. In conclusion, put severe
wording along and west of Highway 83. Lastly, with all the more exciting
weather generally occurring in Colorado, there could be another MCS
rolling through across the northern zones late tonight and into Tuesday
morning. Pops have been increased significantly to depict this ARW solution.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Hot and dry. The story with Tuesday onward, is that a strong 590 dm
ridge will build across the Great Plains. By Saturday, that ridge builds
to 599 dm across the southern Rockies. The net result is a dry forecast.
Temperatures will remain hot with 90s to start out on Tuesday and then
low 100s by Wednesday. These hot temperatures will prevail through the
rest of the long term domain. There may be isolated storms and a slight
cool down by the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR expected through TAF pd. Will have to watch and amend for convection
through the overnight, but it is on weakening trend. KGCK could see
renewed convection again tomorrow evening. Winds SE/S 5-15 kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 69 96 66 / 30 50 10 10
GCK 92 66 94 62 / 30 70 10 0
EHA 90 64 94 62 / 40 40 0 0
LBL 92 68 97 65 / 30 30 10 0
HYS 88 68 91 64 / 40 70 30 10
P28 92 72 97 70 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
214 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
Just completed an update. Understandably models, even the high
resolution/convective allowing models, are having a hard time
resolving the chaos that is going on at this time. Western portion
of the area is seeing its second round of storms with other
activity still upstream. Very hard to get a good trend on the
coverage and timing of the storms.
Rap/ruc seem to be doing fine at this time. In general models are
showing the main thunderstorms will be in the southern half of the
area this evening. Then looks like a brief break and then roughly
centered around 09z another round of storms erupts. The current
forecast captures this especially after midnight and the
adjustments made were before midnight. Some impressive rates have
been occurring due to the very moist air mass and slow movement.
Have not had any extreme amounts yet but considering the general
trend of the models, kept the Flash Flood Watch going.
Cold pool from ongoing thunderstorms has dropped temperatures to
near the forecast lows in the western portion. So dropped the
temperatures there. Also updated the chaotic wind field with the
best performing high resolution guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
Surface analysis indicates Cold front approximate from northern
Colorado across western Nebraska with prefrontal trough extending
south across eastern Colorado. Radar shows slow moving/back
building thunderstorms ahead of main front in our northwest CWA,
while satellite shows CU field developing into NW Kansas.
This afternoon-tonight: Convection already underway is currently
matching trends in RAP/HRRR along with high resolution convective
allowing models (ARW/NMM). RAP analysis indicated CAP already
weakening across much of our CWA with ML CIN approaching zero.
Main axis of forcing is near frontal zone, and trend should be
towards convection filling in across the west and spreading
eastward. Initially convective environment (with high DCAPE and
10kft dry adiabatic layer) will support elevated microburst
potential, and increasing CAPE associated with Tds in the 60s will
support a few stronger updrafts. Shear is on the weaker end, so
stronger storms will tend to be more pulsy in nature. Front will
transition south, aided by possible cold pool with additional
activity developing with easterly flow north of front and moderate
elevated instability through the night.
Mean flow 5-15kt will support slow storm motions will tend to be
on the slower side. There is a anomalously moist air mass in
place with PWATs already in excess of 1.5" according to RAP
analysis. Strong moist inflow towards the frontal zone will lead
to training and backbuilding of thunderstorms. With thunderstorm
activity expected to increase in coverage and slowly spread across
the region the threat for flooding warranted Flash Flood Watch
issuance through tonight.
Monday: Majority of guidance supports eastward trend in nighttime
convective activity Monday morning with a possible lull through
midday. Stronger large scale forcing associated with approaching
upper level trough will support redevelopment Monday afternoon,
with lull serving to prime atmosphere with increasing
instability through the day. As upper low moves east stalled front
will lift north with increasing veering supporting stronger shear
and potential super cell development. All modes of severe weather
will be possible Monday afternoon, with significant hail and some
tornadoes possible.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The pattern during the extended period will have a large upper level
ridge extending from northern Mexico, northeastward over the High
Plains and into northeastern Canada. This pattern will produce
predominantly sunny skies and above normal temperatures for the
end of the week and for most of the weekend. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with some
areas reaching around 100. Overnight lows will range between the
mid 50s to the mid 60s.
Starting Sunday, the ridge looks to flatten and the upper level flow
will become more zonal north of the High Plains. This will allow a
frontal boundary to move over the Tri-State area Sunday Night/Monday
morning time frame. Producing a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday morning with cooler temperatures in the
afternoon. Highs will reach into the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
Very uncertain forecast due to high resolution/convective
allowing models not handling current situation well and mesoscale
influences are greatly influencing forecast. In general the models
are split. Some redevelop a thunderstorm complex over the area in
the next 6 hours. Others move out the current convection and keep
us dry until later today. At this time am going toward the current
rainfall ending and not redeveloping until the afternoon hours.
For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected until late in the period.
Some very light rain will end shortly. Thunderstorms will once
again redevelop later this afternoon. A prevailing thunderstorm
forecast and mvfr conditions were put in for the last six hours.
For Kmck...am keeping prevailing thunderstorm and mvfr conditions
for the first 3 hours. After that vfr conditions are expected
for the remainder of the period. At this time do not expect
thunderstorms to affect the taf site until near the end. So chose
to only put in vcts.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning
for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
COZ090>092.
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning
for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Air mass over southern Colorado will continue to dry out and warm up
today as upper level ridge builds northward through the central
plains. Deep layered SW flow west of the building ridge will
transport hot/dry air northward out of the desert sw, with 700 mb
temps rising to 16C-18C across the area by late afternoon. Should
thus see max temps deep into the 90s on the plains, with 70s/80s
over interior valleys and across the mountains below 10k feet. Deep
mixing will lead to increasing winds across the area, with gusts in
the 15-25 kt range common at many locations by early afternoon.
Overnight, winds should gradually subside as mixing ends, though
surface pressure gradient may be strong enough to keep at least
light wly flow going through the night, as lee surface trough drifts
eastward across the plains toward the KS border.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
...Heat wave on the way...
No real changes to the extended portion of the forecast. High
pressure over TX will build northward into NM and SRN CO over the
weekend...as dry SW flow continues to build over the Desert
Southwest. This will lead to a string of dry, sunny, hot days from
Wed through Sunday. Hottest days still look to be Sat-Sun as the
H5 Heights build to 600-6001 DM over the area...and dry SW flow is
maximized over the area. Could see temps in the lower 100s for
this period, with some record highs possible for the Plains. POPs
will remain basically zero through the weekend.
Will start to see the upper ridge flatten a bit early next week,
with at least a temporary return to more average high temps Mon-
Tue of next week. This will occur as a couple short wave systems
move through the N Plains and on to the Upper Miss Valley. Should
see ar least some modest moisture return to the Plains as a couple
of fronts drop Southward across the Plains. ALong with an increase
in mid level winds as thew ridge weakens...this may lead to at
least a low end threat for severe storms, especially Mon and Tue
over the Plains. After nearly a week of near-record heat, any
chance of precip will likely be welcome. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight. S-SW winds will
become gusty again for a few hours in the afternoon, with gusts to
around 25 kts at KALS, while KCOS and KPUB reach the 15-20 kt
range.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
302 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Warm and dry air will continue to flow into Colorado from the
south and southwest through tonight. It will not quite be clear as
there will be some high clouds brushing along the northern border
and over the mountains. Shallow surface moisture should mix out
pretty well, especially over and near the mountains, so little or
no convective cloudiness is expected. Forecast temperatures and
guidance match quite well; about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
I did trim lows tonight a little in the mountain valleys with
mostly clear skies and dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday into the weekend...an upper level ridge axis will be
stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Upper Midwest...
with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. The ridge will
become oriented more west to east by early next week...when an
upper level disturbance passes across the Northern Rockies. A weak
cool front associated with this system will drop temperatures back
into the mid and upper 80s by Monday. Overall prospects for
precipitation will be scant with just a slight chance of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in the grids for early next week. Hot
temperatures will allow the snowpack to continue to diminish in
the high country. As a result...rivers and creeks will continue to
run high through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR through tonight.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
302 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Warm and dry air will continue to flow into Colorado from the
south and southwest through tonight. It will not quite be clear as
there will be some high clouds brushing along the northern border
and over the mountains. Shallow surface moisture should mix out
pretty well, especially over and near the mountains, so little or
no convective cloudiness is expected. Forecast temperatures and
guidance match quite well; about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
I did trim lows tonight a little in the mountain valleys with
mostly clear skies and dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday into the weekend...an upper level ridge axis will be
stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Upper Midwest...
with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. The ridge will
become oriented more west to east by early next week...when an
upper level disturbance passes across the Northern Rockies. A weak
cool front associated with this system will drop temperatures back
into the mid and upper 80s by Monday. Overall prospects for
precipitation will be scant with just a slight chance of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in the grids for early next week. Hot
temperatures will allow the snowpack to continue to diminish in
the high country. As a result...rivers and creeks will continue to
run high through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR through tonight.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
300 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Low pressure to our northwest and high pressure building in over
Texas will keep southwesterly flow in the forecast. This flow will
allow temperatures to warm-up a few degrees today but, more
importantly, surface winds will increase for much of the area.
These winds will be in the range of 15 to 25 mph with occasional
gusts to 40 mph. The winds, along with very dry surface
conditions, have increased fire concerns across western Colorado
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for today and a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday. The low and high pressure
don`t move much over the next 48 hours so a repeat performance
can be expected on Thursday: plenty of sunny skies, dry
conditions, and some breezy afternoon winds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Temperatures
will also see quite a significant warmup with temperatures soaring
to well above normal levels. Some lower valley temperatures could
top out in the triple digits by the weekend with continued dry
conditions offering very little in the way of precipitation. As
the high pressure center begins to retrograde to the west towards
the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture will rotate
around the top of the high. Precipitable water values climb to
0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado but due to the dry low
levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern, if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with
the high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions will remain in effect for the next 24 hours. The
main concern will be afternoon winds from the southwest of 15 to
25 mph with occasionally higher gusts expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
300 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Low pressure to our northwest and high pressure building in over
Texas will keep southwesterly flow in the forecast. This flow will
allow temperatures to warm-up a few degrees today but, more
importantly, surface winds will increase for much of the area.
These winds will be in the range of 15 to 25 mph with occasional
gusts to 40 mph. The winds, along with very dry surface
conditions, have increased fire concerns across western Colorado
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for today and a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday. The low and high pressure
don`t move much over the next 48 hours so a repeat performance
can be expected on Thursday: plenty of sunny skies, dry
conditions, and some breezy afternoon winds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Temperatures
will also see quite a significant warmup with temperatures soaring
to well above normal levels. Some lower valley temperatures could
top out in the triple digits by the weekend with continued dry
conditions offering very little in the way of precipitation. As
the high pressure center begins to retrograde to the west towards
the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture will rotate
around the top of the high. Precipitable water values climb to
0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado but due to the dry low
levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern, if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with
the high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions will remain in effect for the next 24 hours. The
main concern will be afternoon winds from the southwest of 15 to
25 mph with occasionally higher gusts expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours with dry
weather across southern CO. Light diurnally driven winds will
increase out of the south at 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon. A few
gusts to near 25 kts will be possible at KALS. Winds will diminish
again towards sunset. -KT
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours with dry
weather across southern CO. Light diurnally driven winds will
increase out of the south at 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon. A few
gusts to near 25 kts will be possible at KALS. Winds will diminish
again towards sunset. -KT
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1052 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will persist at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. Winds will be the
bigger issue from 17Z through 03Z/Thursday with gusts expected to
exceed 25 mph from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1052 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will persist at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. Winds will be the
bigger issue from 17Z through 03Z/Thursday with gusts expected to
exceed 25 mph from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
820 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
No updates needed this evening. Ridge of high pressure aloft over
Colorado with dry and stable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 818 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Surface winds shifting Southeast at local terminals and will
gradually shift more South and Southwest towards midnight. Skies
clearing this evening with no impacts expected.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
546 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
448 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 448 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at area forecast terminals over the
next 24 hours. Winds will be the bigger problem by Wednesday
afternoon with gusts over 25 mph from the west to southwest
becoming common after 1300.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through Wednesday.
Westerly winds this afternoon with sustained speeds between 6-12
knots, gusts up to 20knots - stronger gusts expected closer to
the foothills such as at KBJC. Winds should diminish after sunset
and become drainage, then pick up out of the south-southeast
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
203 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions
to be noted over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday
morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1057 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200>203-
207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200>203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1020 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Slightly stronger winds late this morning than forecasted, have
adjusted grids and forecast to show this. Otherwise, forecast is
on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in the 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance
of a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1020 MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down today with speeds
between 10-15 knots, stronger closer to the foothills such as at
KBJC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1005 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Could
see a period of briefly gusty S-SW winds at the terminals in the
afternoon, with a few gusts to 25 kts at KALS from 19z-00z.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to adjust the forecast based on the latest radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the Kansas border and will continue to track east through 2
am. Hail to the size of dimes and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish by, or shortly
after 06z with dry weather persisting through 18Z. A few
thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain after 18Z,
persisting through 02Z/Wednesday. This activity is unlikely to
impact airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah over the
next 24 hours. Consequently, look for VFR conditions with CIGS
remaining above ILS breakpoints through the period. However,
expect winds to become breezy from the southwest during the
afternoon with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH across much of the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
947 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Current forecast is on track, no updates/changes are needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Warm and dry air will continue to flow into Colorado from the
south and southwest through tonight. It will not quite be clear as
there will be some high clouds brushing along the northern border
and over the mountains. Shallow surface moisture should mix out
pretty well, especially over and near the mountains, so little or
no convective cloudiness is expected. Forecast temperatures and
guidance match quite well; about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
I did trim lows tonight a little in the mountain valleys with
mostly clear skies and dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday into the weekend...an upper level ridge axis will be
stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Upper Midwest...
with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. The ridge will
become oriented more west to east by early next week...when an
upper level disturbance passes across the Northern Rockies. A weak
cool front associated with this system will drop temperatures back
into the mid and upper 80s by Monday. Overall prospects for
precipitation will be scant with just a slight chance of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in the grids for early next week. Hot
temperatures will allow the snowpack to continue to diminish in
the high country. As a result...rivers and creeks will continue to
run high through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 947 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR under clear skies through Thursday morning. South-
southeasterly winds will increase this afternoon, then return to
an enhanced drainage pattern tonight.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kriederman
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Air mass over southern Colorado will continue to dry out and warm up
today as upper level ridge builds northward through the central
plains. Deep layered SW flow west of the building ridge will
transport hot/dry air northward out of the desert sw, with 700 mb
temps rising to 16C-18C across the area by late afternoon. Should
thus see max temps deep into the 90s on the plains, with 70s/80s
over interior valleys and across the mountains below 10k feet. Deep
mixing will lead to increasing winds across the area, with gusts in
the 15-25 kt range common at many locations by early afternoon.
Overnight, winds should gradually subside as mixing ends, though
surface pressure gradient may be strong enough to keep at least
light wly flow going through the night, as lee surface trough drifts
eastward across the plains toward the KS border.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
...Heat wave on the way...
No real changes to the extended portion of the forecast. High
pressure over TX will build northward into NM and SRN CO over the
weekend...as dry SW flow continues to build over the Desert
Southwest. This will lead to a string of dry, sunny, hot days from
Wed through Sunday. Hottest days still look to be Sat-Sun as the
H5 Heights build to 600-6001 DM over the area...and dry SW flow is
maximized over the area. Could see temps in the lower 100s for
this period, with some record highs possible for the Plains. POPs
will remain basically zero through the weekend.
Will start to see the upper ridge flatten a bit early next week,
with at least a temporary return to more average high temps Mon-
Tue of next week. This will occur as a couple short wave systems
move through the N Plains and on to the Upper Miss Valley. Should
see ar least some modest moisture return to the Plains as a couple
of fronts drop Southward across the Plains. ALong with an increase
in mid level winds as thew ridge weakens...this may lead to at
least a low end threat for severe storms, especially Mon and Tue
over the Plains. After nearly a week of near-record heat, any
chance of precip will likely be welcome. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight. S-SW winds will
become gusty again for a few hours in the afternoon, with gusts to
around 25 kts at KALS, while KCOS and KPUB reach the 15-20 kt
range.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
302 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Warm and dry air will continue to flow into Colorado from the
south and southwest through tonight. It will not quite be clear as
there will be some high clouds brushing along the northern border
and over the mountains. Shallow surface moisture should mix out
pretty well, especially over and near the mountains, so little or
no convective cloudiness is expected. Forecast temperatures and
guidance match quite well; about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
I did trim lows tonight a little in the mountain valleys with
mostly clear skies and dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday into the weekend...an upper level ridge axis will be
stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Upper Midwest...
with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. The ridge will
become oriented more west to east by early next week...when an
upper level disturbance passes across the Northern Rockies. A weak
cool front associated with this system will drop temperatures back
into the mid and upper 80s by Monday. Overall prospects for
precipitation will be scant with just a slight chance of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in the grids for early next week. Hot
temperatures will allow the snowpack to continue to diminish in
the high country. As a result...rivers and creeks will continue to
run high through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR through tonight.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
302 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Warm and dry air will continue to flow into Colorado from the
south and southwest through tonight. It will not quite be clear as
there will be some high clouds brushing along the northern border
and over the mountains. Shallow surface moisture should mix out
pretty well, especially over and near the mountains, so little or
no convective cloudiness is expected. Forecast temperatures and
guidance match quite well; about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
I did trim lows tonight a little in the mountain valleys with
mostly clear skies and dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday into the weekend...an upper level ridge axis will be
stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Upper Midwest...
with a dry southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. The ridge will
become oriented more west to east by early next week...when an
upper level disturbance passes across the Northern Rockies. A weak
cool front associated with this system will drop temperatures back
into the mid and upper 80s by Monday. Overall prospects for
precipitation will be scant with just a slight chance of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in the grids for early next week. Hot
temperatures will allow the snowpack to continue to diminish in
the high country. As a result...rivers and creeks will continue to
run high through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR through tonight.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
300 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Low pressure to our northwest and high pressure building in over
Texas will keep southwesterly flow in the forecast. This flow will
allow temperatures to warm-up a few degrees today but, more
importantly, surface winds will increase for much of the area.
These winds will be in the range of 15 to 25 mph with occasional
gusts to 40 mph. The winds, along with very dry surface
conditions, have increased fire concerns across western Colorado
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for today and a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday. The low and high pressure
don`t move much over the next 48 hours so a repeat performance
can be expected on Thursday: plenty of sunny skies, dry
conditions, and some breezy afternoon winds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Temperatures
will also see quite a significant warmup with temperatures soaring
to well above normal levels. Some lower valley temperatures could
top out in the triple digits by the weekend with continued dry
conditions offering very little in the way of precipitation. As
the high pressure center begins to retrograde to the west towards
the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture will rotate
around the top of the high. Precipitable water values climb to
0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado but due to the dry low
levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern, if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with
the high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions will remain in effect for the next 24 hours. The
main concern will be afternoon winds from the southwest of 15 to
25 mph with occasionally higher gusts expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
300 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Low pressure to our northwest and high pressure building in over
Texas will keep southwesterly flow in the forecast. This flow will
allow temperatures to warm-up a few degrees today but, more
importantly, surface winds will increase for much of the area.
These winds will be in the range of 15 to 25 mph with occasional
gusts to 40 mph. The winds, along with very dry surface
conditions, have increased fire concerns across western Colorado
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for today and a Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday. The low and high pressure
don`t move much over the next 48 hours so a repeat performance
can be expected on Thursday: plenty of sunny skies, dry
conditions, and some breezy afternoon winds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Temperatures
will also see quite a significant warmup with temperatures soaring
to well above normal levels. Some lower valley temperatures could
top out in the triple digits by the weekend with continued dry
conditions offering very little in the way of precipitation. As
the high pressure center begins to retrograde to the west towards
the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture will rotate
around the top of the high. Precipitable water values climb to
0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado but due to the dry low
levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern, if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with
the high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions will remain in effect for the next 24 hours. The
main concern will be afternoon winds from the southwest of 15 to
25 mph with occasionally higher gusts expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours with dry
weather across southern CO. Light diurnally driven winds will
increase out of the south at 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon. A few
gusts to near 25 kts will be possible at KALS. Winds will diminish
again towards sunset. -KT
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours with dry
weather across southern CO. Light diurnally driven winds will
increase out of the south at 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon. A few
gusts to near 25 kts will be possible at KALS. Winds will diminish
again towards sunset. -KT
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1052 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will persist at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. Winds will be the
bigger issue from 17Z through 03Z/Thursday with gusts expected to
exceed 25 mph from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1052 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will persist at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. Winds will be the
bigger issue from 17Z through 03Z/Thursday with gusts expected to
exceed 25 mph from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
820 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
No updates needed this evening. Ridge of high pressure aloft over
Colorado with dry and stable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 818 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Surface winds shifting Southeast at local terminals and will
gradually shift more South and Southwest towards midnight. Skies
clearing this evening with no impacts expected.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
546 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Updated to remove isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
forecast for this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
over the higher terrain with little vertical development,
therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
448 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 448 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at area forecast terminals over the
next 24 hours. Winds will be the bigger problem by Wednesday
afternoon with gusts over 25 mph from the west to southwest
becoming common after 1300.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through Wednesday.
Westerly winds this afternoon with sustained speeds between 6-12
knots, gusts up to 20knots - stronger gusts expected closer to
the foothills such as at KBJC. Winds should diminish after sunset
and become drainage, then pick up out of the south-southeast
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
203 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions
to be noted over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday
morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1057 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200>203-
207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200>203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1020 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Slightly stronger winds late this morning than forecasted, have
adjusted grids and forecast to show this. Otherwise, forecast is
on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in the 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance
of a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1020 MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down today with speeds
between 10-15 knots, stronger closer to the foothills such as at
KBJC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1005 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Could
see a period of briefly gusty S-SW winds at the terminals in the
afternoon, with a few gusts to 25 kts at KALS from 19z-00z.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to adjust the forecast based on the latest radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the Kansas border and will continue to track east through 2
am. Hail to the size of dimes and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish by, or shortly
after 06z with dry weather persisting through 18Z. A few
thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain after 18Z,
persisting through 02Z/Wednesday. This activity is unlikely to
impact airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah over the
next 24 hours. Consequently, look for VFR conditions with CIGS
remaining above ILS breakpoints through the period. However,
expect winds to become breezy from the southwest during the
afternoon with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH across much of the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM EASTERN CANADA TODAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. ALSO, A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, OTHERWISE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. NARROW
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN DEEP MARITIME LOW PRESSURE AND
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 615 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OTHERWISE, SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS
EAST FROM THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND H750
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS, AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL START TO DRIFT NORTHEAST, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AFFECT
MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION,
ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE
AREAS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER DUE TO A HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS,
WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH MAY REMAIN
COOLER WHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN CANADA, AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DISTURBANCE, COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SPREADING WEST FROM NEW ENGLAND COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL LEAD TO A
MORE ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND PROVIDING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
JUNE.
AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LATEST 15/00Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN OUR REGION, WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL START ABOVE
AVERAGE AND THEN DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH TODAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SETTLING
BACK SOUTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENDING
12Z/THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, WITH BKN200-250 DEVELOPING. CLOUDS MAY
THICKEN A BIT MORE AT KPOU AFTER 07Z/THURSDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN
VFR.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH MAY
BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AT KGFL DUE TO LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM EASTERN CANADA TODAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. ALSO, A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 30-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RECOVER
TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING SUNDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND MID-HUDSON
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RIVER FLOWS CONTINUING TO HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...JMG/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1002 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain in control through this weekend,
resulting in cool nights and warm afternoons with low humidity.
Warmer and more humid conditions are expected early next week with
a risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...
Clear skies across SNE this morning as batch of clouds have moved
offshore. Upstream soundings are rather dry so lots of sunshine
today, although cross sections show increasing moisture in the
850-700 mb layer this afternoon in eastern New Eng which may bring
some clouds to this area. 850 mb temps 12-13C supports highs in
the low/mid 80s...cooler south coast where winds will turn sw.
Along the east coast, BL winds should be just strong enough to
keep sea breezes at bay. It will remain rather dry, with dewpoints
dropping into the 40s to lower 50s as mixing increases.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Southern New England eventually gets into a col tonight and
Thursday. A low pressure is expected to move from the western
Great Lakes tonight, and move off the mid Atlantic coast toward
daybreak Thursday. Confluence aloft should keep our weather dry,
by steering this low pressure just far enough away from our
region. At this time, only expecting an increase in clouds across
southwest MA and northern CT late tonight into Thursday.
Temperatures should be near seasonable levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mild to warm days & cool nights w/low humidity through Saturday
* Low risk for some showers Sunday, otherwise dry
* Pattern change to more summerlike weather possible early next week
Overview and model preferences...
Blocked pattern remains the dominant into early next week as
cutoffs across the PACNW and Canadian Maritimes meander slowly E
with building ridge across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
This pattern will continue to draw drier CP air from the Canadian
prairies across much of Srn New England into the weekend. The
little movement will maintain the stationary front to the SW,
along with highest moisture-content and destabilized air, so will
maintain the dry forecast which has been advertised over the last
few days. In fact even know, the ECMWF have joined the ECENS/GEFS
members in keeping hybrid-warm core system offshore Sun-Mon. Given
the better agreement now, will use deterministic guidance as a
baseline for the forecast through Sun, but then lean back on the
ECENS/GEFS due to the influence of the hybrid system in the ECMWF.
Details...
Thu night through Sun...
Mainly dry with atmospheric squeeze-play in place. Only caveat
may be Fri as developing trof begins to phase with the Maritime
Cutoff, increasing overall lift and weak warm advection across Srn
New England. However, moisture/unstable air remains well to the
SW, so any shra activity that develops will be widely scattered,
and several locations may remain dry.
H85 temps remain close to +10C most days, so expect highs
reaching upper 70s to mid 80s under full mixing. Sea breezes limit
temps near coast. Overnight mins drop off thanks to radiational
cooling setup, mainly 50s.
Mon and Tue...
Initial warming will lead to H85 temps nearly +15C, thanks to
ingestion of warm air from the subtropics (ECMWF features this
especially with the development of an offshore system). Therefore,
could see a period where highs reach the mid 80s and even into the
90s. Cold frontal passage possible, with timing being the primary
key to how much if any convection occurs, as current timing. The
infusion of subtropical air does lead to more destabilized column.
Still timing to watch this feature.
Mid next week...
Latest trends and ensemble probabilities area bit cooler than
previous runs following the cold frontal passage, featuring the
development of another longwave trof across the northeast. This
may contradict the earlier, warmer thinking unless the subtropical
stream can maintain beyond the cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
VFR. Main issue will be the development of sea breezes, if they do
come onshore, it will be late, mainly in the mid-late afternoon,
but it`s possible they remain offshore.
Tonight and Thursday...High confidence.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Local seabreezes
more likely Thursday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF overall. Sea breeze most likely
remains offshore today, but if it comes in, it would be late
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night through Saturday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light and variable winds.
Sunday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR likely as low pres looks to stay offshore.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday/...High confidence.
Mainly tranquil boating weather through Thursday, with light
winds and seas. Southwest winds may briefly gust to 20 kt over
south coastal waters this afternoon, then diminishing tonight.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
High pressure continues to slowly build over the waters into the
weekend. This will lead to wind gusts and seas generally below
small craft advisory thresholds. Low risk for building seas
reaching near 5 ft on ocean waters due to offshore low pres.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
958 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes tracks southeast towards
the Carolina coast by Friday. High pressure builds in from the
north for the weekend. A cold front approaches early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track. Very minor adjustments needed to t/td early
this morning.
Nice looking vort max comma over central Minnesota with
convection occurring in Indiana and Michigan along a warm front.
System is vertically stacked with 998 hPa SFC low. Large upper low
continues to spin over the Canadian Maritimes. This leave channel
for increasing cirrus to advect across the local are today.
Sky grids contain low values with the thinking that cirrus will
be thin. Thus, a sunny day.
Temps get to the middle 80s...cooler at the shore where classic sea
breeze forms early. Have followed RAP wind fields which forms an
"Ambrose Jet" in the NY Bight by late AFTN. Gusts to 25 MPH in the
Rockaways.
A moderate risk of rip currents for the ocean beaches this
afternoon from mid afternoon into the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Based on available guidance - differential warm advection in the
mid levels will result in sufficient omega for light rain to
brush the western portions of the region Thursday morning. This
PCPN falls from the mid deck clouds and is expected to be "light"
in intensity - though it will likely occur during the morning
rush.
POPs are raised to likely for NE Jersey and NYC. POPs drop off
quickly to the east with no PCPN forecast for Southern CT and
Suffolk County. PCPN is also FCST to end by noon.
Temps close tot he warmer NAM MOS though clouds keep if cooler
than today.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NWP models are in good agreement into Sat...then differences with
a potential cutoff low over the Atlantic begin to take shape with
lower confidence in the forecast thereafter. Long term period
generally starts with troughing over the east...then an extension
of a strengthening upper level ridge over the Southwestern US
builds across the country and into the Northeast for the latter
part of the weekend and into early next week.
Vigorous shortwave tracks from the Ohio Valley to the Mid
Atlantic coast on Fri. Models in good agreement that pcpn should
remain s and w Thu night into Fri. Have kept Fri dry for
now...although a shortwave tracking swd from New England may
trigger a few showers during the aftn N of NYC. Soundings look
capped in the mid levels...so shouldn`t be any thunder.
Deep layered ridging then builds in for the weekend and into early
next week with H5 heights around 592 dam and H85 temps around 17C
on Mon. This would yield highs well into the 80s for most
locations...although a SW flow will keep temps closer to the 80s
degree mark at the coast. Heights begin to fall Tue as the center
of the strong high over the Southwest shifts west and a longwave
trough over central Canada drops into the Great Lakes and
Northeast.
The ECMWF has been less progressive with the upper trough exiting
this weekend thus resulting in a cutoff low developing over the
Atlantic and retrograding back towards the mainland. This soln has
been discounted as it is the only model indicating this worst case
scenario.
A cold front moves across on Tue bringing the chance of
showers/tstms during the aftn/eve although timing of the fropa is
uncertain and may end up stalling over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. A broad area of high pressure remains over the region today.
A low pressure system tracks west and southwest of the terminals
late this evening, into tonight. Conditions are expected to remain
VFR in light rain for the western terminals.
Southwesterly this afternoon. Southern coastal terminals will go
southwest first (between 16z and 18z), followed by the more
western terminals a couple of hours later with moderate confidence
in the timing of wind direction change. A sea breeze is expected
to move across Long Island this afternoon.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Low level wind shear around 300 feet is expected
to develop this afternoon, around 19Z, as a sea breeze sets up. The
sea breeze weakens early this evening with low level wind shear
ending. Moderate confidence in the wind forecast.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. Sea breeze
expected to reach the terminal around 20Z, possibly an hour
later. Moderate confidence in the wind forecast.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. A sea breeze
is not expected to reach the terminal.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. A sea breeze
is expected through the terminal late this afternoon, as late as
22Z, and possibly as early as 20Z. Low to moderate forecast
confidence in the wind forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thu-Sun...VFR. Chance -RA late Wed night and early Thu for the
western terminals. Otherwise, dry.
&&
.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions, Sub-SCA, through Thu. There is an exception
though. This afternoon`s sea breeze circulation will cause near
SCA winds on the ocean and the Great South Bay, but especially in
the Bight. In fact...we might may need a SCA for the Bight. Would
not be surprised in 30 KT gusts occur along the Rockaways.
Long term...
No foreseen hazards on the waters through the weekend with high
pressure and a weak pres gradient mainly dominating.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Light PCPN possible for western zones early Thursday, otherwise,
dry into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Tongue
NEAR TERM...Tongue
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...24/Tongue
HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Showers and thunderstorms in north central ND rapidly dissipated
in the last 90 minutes as they propagated into a more stable air
mass and increasing subsidence aloft in the wake of the stacked
low pressure system centered in west central MN at 11 UTC. Thus,
we drastically reduced PoPs early this morning. Low clouds have
developed over parts of western ND early this morning, as well.
We adjusted sky cover to reflect that, but satellite imagery
suggests the stratus is thin and should dissipate with diurnal
heating and resultant mixing of the boundary layer in the next
few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thunderstorms over northwest North Dakota early this morning were
weakening as they moved east, and developed south. They were
moving into less favorable environment with respect to
instability. Have nowcasted the rain east over the next several
hours before dissipating it. Latest radar trends indicate that I
may have taken that rain too far east before it dries up in the
more stable air.
Mostly sunny today, then the next wave moves into eastern Montana
with convection firing along a lee trough and advancing northeast.
A capped mid level will need to be broken before storms fire and
this could take the entire day, with development / movement into
northwest North Dakota not until closer to sunset. Enough shear
should be present by that time for some supercells and at least
some risk of severe weather in the Williston area this evening
into tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Left over convection from Wednesday night should still be going
along the Saskatchewan and Manitoba borders Thursday morning.
Then, late Thursday, another wrinkle in the southwest flow could
trigger storms over the central and east in the afternoon, but
more likely not until evening.
Southwest mid level flow with short wave after short wave
continues through the weekend with chances for storms. Timing and
location of waves will determine timing and location of storms,
of course. No steady rain washout is expected, but chances for
storms nonetheless, and they should be capable of producing at
least some small hail and gusty winds.
Temperatures will be above normal, very warm and a little humid,
on Thursday, followed by normal to just above through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
MVFR stratus will impact parts of western ND and the James River
valley through about 15 UTC, impacting KDIK, possibly KISN, and
KJMS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail today
and tonight. The probability of fog at KBIS early this morning has
diminished per observational trends, so it was not carried in the
12 UTC TAF release. Finally, there is a chance of thunderstorms in
northwest ND tonight, but confidence in them impacting KISN was
too low for even a VCTS mention in that TAF.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
426 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thunderstorms over northwest North Dakota early this morning were
weakening as they moved east, and developed south. They were
moving into less favorable environment with respect to
instability. Have nowcasted the rain east over the next several
hours before dissipating it. Latest radar trends indicate that I
may have taken that rain too far east before it dries up in the
more stable air.
Mostly sunny today, then the next wave moves into eastern Montana
with convection firing along a lee trough and advancing northeast.
A capped mid level will need to be broken before storms fire and
this could take the entire day, with development / movement into
northwest North Dakota not until closer to sunset. Enough shear
should be present by that time for some supercells and at least
some risk of severe weather in the Williston area this evening
into tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Left over convection from Wednesday night should still be going
along the Saskatchewan and Manitoba borders Thursday morning.
Then, late Thursday, another wrinkle in the southwest flow could
trigger storms over the central and east in the afternoon, but
more likely not until evening.
Southwest mid level flow with short wave after short wave
continues through the weekend with chances for storms. Timing and
location of waves will determine timing and location of storms,
of course. No steady rain washout is expected, but chances for
storms nonetheless, and they should be capable of producing at
least some small hail and gusty winds.
Temperatures will be above normal, very warm and a little humid,
on Thursday, followed by normal to just above through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms in north central ND at 09 UTC
will slowly diminish as they move east, but are on track to impact
KMOT before 12 UTC. MVFR and local IFR ceilings in the James River
Valley at KJMS will lift by mid morning. Finally, patchy fog is
possible through about 14 UTC, mainly at KBIS. VFR conditions will
prevail during the day Wednesday across all of the west and
central.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Heaviest rain with this system fell just northwest of the upper
low in the Valley City/Cooperstown area with 2-3 inches in a
narrow zone. The upper low is now slowly progressing east and
located near fargo. The surface low was located between Fargo and
Detroit Lakes. This too will slowly move east-northeast. Radar
showing a slowly dimishing rain area in the deformation zone nw of
the upper low btwn Grand Forks and Devils Lake. Band of rain as
well over northern MN and this will slowly lift north as drier air
wraps around the low. Overall as upper low moves away expecting a
dimishing precipitation trend but it will be a slow one with
chances for showers in the nrn/cntrl RRV through midday and over
nw MN thru mid aftn. Enough sunshine late today to lift highs in
the 70s RRV and esp westward while clouds hold all day east of the
RRV.
Some mid and high level cloudiness at times tonight but dry. Tstms
confined to NW ND and NE MT as one of many short waves move
northeast in the upper level flow around a trough over the Pac NW
and W Canada and the upper ridge over the south central states.
This wave will likely spread chances for thunderstorms into ern nd
Thursday aftn/evening. SPC has northeastern ND in a marginal risk
for late day/eve svr storms as Capes rise into the 2000 to 3000
range with just enough sfc heating and increase in dew pts as
winds turn south-southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Tstm chances continue into Tuesday night. A bit stronger vort max
comes around the upper ridge to our south and into eastern ND
Friday late aftn/eve. This should set off another round of tstms.
For Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft continues over
the region in the early part of the period with the H5 ridge over
the Great Lakes. Otherwise...a frontal system will cross the area
Saturday night and Sunday bringing another round of measurable
pcpn...with a risk for more thunderstorm activity. Behind the
system...drier conditions will return and temperatures will return
to more seasonal values. Highs are expected to be in the mid to
upper 70s...and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Low pressure system lifting acros the fa from sw to ne through the
forenoon. Expect widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys in rain showers
with isold thunderstorms. Eastern ND will see conds becoming VFR
from 12z to 18z... while northwest MN scatters out from 18z to
00z.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Gust
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1257 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Forecast was updated to refine pops east as showers were ending,
and to refine them northwest where isolated weak storms were
moving through.
UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A surface and upper level low continues to meander over southeast
ND but should begin moving and is expected to be in western MN by
12 UTC. Currently. light rain is nearly steady or building back
west from eastern ND into the JRV. Will see showers and possibly
an occasional rumble of thunder through midnight with precip
slowly moving east thereafter.
To the west, a line of strong thunderstorms continues to move
through northeast Montana. This produced a gust to around 40 mph
at Wolf Point recently. The past 1-2 hours the line has been
producing sub-severe winds and hail. The atmosphere continues to
stabilize ahead of the line, but mid level lapse rates have
steepened in the past few hours over far eastern MT. CAMS are
still showing a variety of solutions, but think the consensus is
indicating more organized convection remaining along and north of
the Missouri in eastern MT and into western MT before dissipating
as it moves into the north central portion of the state. And with
only isolated to scattered convection to the south of the
Missouri, moving into the west central and southwest. Currently
very little convection remains over eastern MT, south of the
Missouri. Will certainly continue to monitor. Used a blend of the
short term models for pops moving into the far west around 5 UTC,
and keeping the favored area north of the Missouri River and Lake
Sakakawea.
Main changes to the forecast with this update were with pops in
the west and lingering precipitation in the east.
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Widespread showers continue over eastern ND from the Turtle
Mountains area through the James River Valley. This activity will
continue to move slowly east. Mostly clear over central and
western ND with only a couple dissipating cells over the far
southwest. A line of strong convection over northeast Montana will
continue to move east. Some of the latest cams show this activity
moving into western north dakota around midnight, but most are
overdone on the current extent of convection. Will have to see
how the line holds up as we move through the evening and
environment become less unfavorable.
Main changes were to update latest sky cover and pops based on
latest satellite and radar imagery.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Rainfall across the James River Valley this evening and
thunderstorm potential Wednesday highlight the short term
forecast.
Wrap around and deformation rainfall associated with the surface
low across northeast South Dakota will continue to be focused
across the James and Red River Valleys the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. One thing to monitor is non-
supercell tornadoes that are occurring with a line of
thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota along the surface warm
front. However, the best instability and surface vorticity does
look to remain just south and east of the James River Valley in
North Dakota.
Otherwise, diurnal isolated convection is possible across the
west where sunshine has been occurring most of the day. Around
1500 j/kg of ML CAPE has developed, however, deep layer shear is
and will remain weak, along with upper level forcing. Thus, severe
thunderstorms are not expected. For tonight given the rainfall, a
patchy fog mention was added to much of the area.
On Wednesday, instability is forecast to build through the
afternoon and evening across western North Dakota into eastern
Montana ahead of cyclogenesis across eastern Wyoming and Montana.
Overall, 500 mb heights are forecast to build through the day,
which is a signal that the synoptic setup may not be overly
supportive of convective initiation. The best chance for
thunderstorms will likely hold off until the late evening and
overnight across the northwest and north central.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Multiple chances for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible for much of the area Wednesday night through at least
Saturday.
From the short term, the best chances for possible severe
convection is late Wednesday evening and night northwest and north
central with a strengthening low level jet and the arrival of
greater upper level forcing. Strong deep layer shear and up to
1000-1500 j/kg of MU CAPE would support the possibility for severe
convection. Thereafter, the Northern Plains remains under
southwest flow aloft through Saturday. This pattern points to the
potential for near daily rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Details in timing and threats each day will become clear when
capping and forcing mechanisms become more certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
IFR ceilings will continue overnight at KJMS, before lifting on
Wednesday morning. Rain over the James River Valley will end by
about 10 UTC, and the showers and thunderstorms moving through
northwest ND are expected to diminish as they move east. We don`t
currently expect that activity to reach KMOT. Finally, patchy fog
is possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning, especially
at KBIS. VFR conditions will prevail during the day Wednesday
across all of the west and central.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1257 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Forecast was updated to refine pops east as showers were ending,
and to refine them northwest where isolated weak storms were
moving through.
UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A surface and upper level low continues to meander over southeast
ND but should begin moving and is expected to be in western MN by
12 UTC. Currently. light rain is nearly steady or building back
west from eastern ND into the JRV. Will see showers and possibly
an occasional rumble of thunder through midnight with precip
slowly moving east thereafter.
To the west, a line of strong thunderstorms continues to move
through northeast Montana. This produced a gust to around 40 mph
at Wolf Point recently. The past 1-2 hours the line has been
producing sub-severe winds and hail. The atmosphere continues to
stabilize ahead of the line, but mid level lapse rates have
steepened in the past few hours over far eastern MT. CAMS are
still showing a variety of solutions, but think the consensus is
indicating more organized convection remaining along and north of
the Missouri in eastern MT and into western MT before dissipating
as it moves into the north central portion of the state. And with
only isolated to scattered convection to the south of the
Missouri, moving into the west central and southwest. Currently
very little convection remains over eastern MT, south of the
Missouri. Will certainly continue to monitor. Used a blend of the
short term models for pops moving into the far west around 5 UTC,
and keeping the favored area north of the Missouri River and Lake
Sakakawea.
Main changes to the forecast with this update were with pops in
the west and lingering precipitation in the east.
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Widespread showers continue over eastern ND from the Turtle
Mountains area through the James River Valley. This activity will
continue to move slowly east. Mostly clear over central and
western ND with only a couple dissipating cells over the far
southwest. A line of strong convection over northeast Montana will
continue to move east. Some of the latest cams show this activity
moving into western north dakota around midnight, but most are
overdone on the current extent of convection. Will have to see
how the line holds up as we move through the evening and
environment become less unfavorable.
Main changes were to update latest sky cover and pops based on
latest satellite and radar imagery.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Rainfall across the James River Valley this evening and
thunderstorm potential Wednesday highlight the short term
forecast.
Wrap around and deformation rainfall associated with the surface
low across northeast South Dakota will continue to be focused
across the James and Red River Valleys the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. One thing to monitor is non-
supercell tornadoes that are occurring with a line of
thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota along the surface warm
front. However, the best instability and surface vorticity does
look to remain just south and east of the James River Valley in
North Dakota.
Otherwise, diurnal isolated convection is possible across the
west where sunshine has been occurring most of the day. Around
1500 j/kg of ML CAPE has developed, however, deep layer shear is
and will remain weak, along with upper level forcing. Thus, severe
thunderstorms are not expected. For tonight given the rainfall, a
patchy fog mention was added to much of the area.
On Wednesday, instability is forecast to build through the
afternoon and evening across western North Dakota into eastern
Montana ahead of cyclogenesis across eastern Wyoming and Montana.
Overall, 500 mb heights are forecast to build through the day,
which is a signal that the synoptic setup may not be overly
supportive of convective initiation. The best chance for
thunderstorms will likely hold off until the late evening and
overnight across the northwest and north central.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Multiple chances for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible for much of the area Wednesday night through at least
Saturday.
From the short term, the best chances for possible severe
convection is late Wednesday evening and night northwest and north
central with a strengthening low level jet and the arrival of
greater upper level forcing. Strong deep layer shear and up to
1000-1500 j/kg of MU CAPE would support the possibility for severe
convection. Thereafter, the Northern Plains remains under
southwest flow aloft through Saturday. This pattern points to the
potential for near daily rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Details in timing and threats each day will become clear when
capping and forcing mechanisms become more certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
IFR ceilings will continue overnight at KJMS, before lifting on
Wednesday morning. Rain over the James River Valley will end by
about 10 UTC, and the showers and thunderstorms moving through
northwest ND are expected to diminish as they move east. We don`t
currently expect that activity to reach KMOT. Finally, patchy fog
is possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning, especially
at KBIS. VFR conditions will prevail during the day Wednesday
across all of the west and central.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Have bumped up pops and QPF a bit through 12z.... especially in
eastern ND and the northern RRV... as wraparound rain bands are
expected to persist.
UPDATE Issued at 908 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The SPC 01z SWODY1 update shifts the convective Slight Risk area
into southeast minnesota and leaves only a band of counties across
the far southern fa in a Marginal Risk through the remainder of
the overnight period. Else widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms are the main threat. At 02z...radar had a broad area
of deformation band rain extending north of a surface low near
Lisbon and across most of eastern ND. So sig fcst updates planned
for this late evening period.
UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Surface low along the North/South dakota border south of JMS.
Associated boundary runs along the border then SE along the
Minnesota River Valley. Tornadic storms which developed along
boundary over NE SD into west central MN have dissipated. Only LTG
strikes currently just SE and SW of the forecast area. Minor
instability and cape continues in these areas (southern quarter of
the fa) with pretty stable air northward. Guidance does not shift
more favored convective parameters northward so based on this and
current radar imagery and lightning detection have trimmed thunder
mention. Also adjusted pops a bit downward as rain not as
widespread and more spotty except across the far west and east. With
low and boundary still along the border am hesitant to drop all
mention of severe potential mainly with social media and graphics etc.
Threat does appear minimal other than brief spin up tornadoes
although non-supercell tornado parameter remains over NE SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Main challenge for tonight is severe weather potential across far
southeast ND into portions of west central MN. The sfc low still
seems to be somewhere west of Watertown SD with a warm front
extending out to the ESE toward southern MN. An area of
deformation rain also extends from west of KABR northward through
KJMS and Carrington. The stronger convection has been firing
across SW MN near the warm front and is tracking ENE. The
extensive cloud cover and rain has limited the instability across
our slight risk area (KBWP to KFFM). Tornadoes are forming along
the warm front and near the sfc low where there are better VGP
values. Up in this FA, things just looking weaker. Latest high
resolution guidance show some development late this afternoon into
the early evening across southeast ND into west central MN, but
they may just be strong storms and not severe ones. Will be
closely watching things however. Models are also showing less pcpn
with the storms. Looking like the deformation rain will not be too
heavy, as less overall convection means less rain overall. This
rain may linger into the night and portions of Wed, especially
over the MN FA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Did not make too many changes to the forecast in this time frame
due to potential severe weather. Did remove any pcpn chances in
the Thursday evening time frame, with most models looking dry. Do
have chances late Thu night into Fri.
Saturday to Tuesday... Southwest flow aloft with a short wave will
bring continued PCPN chances to the area Saturday and through
Saturday night into Sunday. Moist airmass with dewpoints in the 60s
will fuel storms...FROPA Sunday AM will push the storms east and
bring drier...mid 50s dewpoint air into the region. This will limit
convective activity Monday and Tuesday as flow becomes nearly zonal.
As for temperatures upper 70s to upper 80s on Saturday will give way
to cooler air... 70s for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Low pressure system lifting acros the fa from sw to ne through the
forenoon. Expect widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys in rain showers
with isold thunderstorms. Eastern ND will see conds becoming VFR
from 12z to 18z... while northwest MN scatters out from 18z to
00z.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JK
AVIATION...Gust
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A surface and upper level low continues to meander over southeast
ND but should begin moving and is expected to be in western MN by
12 UTC. Currently. light rain is nearly steady or building back
west from eastern ND into the JRV. Will see showers and possibly
an occasional rumble of thunder through midnight with precip
slowly moving east thereafter.
To the west, a line of strong thunderstorms continues to move
through northeast Montana. This produced a gust to around 40 mph
at Wolf Point recently. The past 1-2 hours the line has been
producing sub-severe winds and hail. The atmosphere continues to
stabilize ahead of the line, but mid level lapse rates have
steepened in the past few hours over far eastern MT. CAMS are
still showing a variety of solutions, but think the consensus is
indicating more organized convection remaining along and north of
the Missouri in eastern MT and into western MT before dissipating
as it moves into the north central portion of the state. And with
only isolated to scattered convection to the south of the
Missouri, moving into the west central and southwest. Currently
very little convection remains over eastern MT, south of the
Missouri. Will certainly continue to monitor. Used a blend of the
short term models for pops moving into the far west around 5 UTC,
and keeping the favored area north of the Missouri River and Lake
Sakakawea.
Main changes to the forecast with this update were with pops in
the west and lingering precipitation in the east.
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Widespread showers continue over eastern ND from the Turtle
Mountains area through the James River Valley. This activity will
continue to move slowly east. Mostly clear over central and
western ND with only a couple dissipating cells over the far
southwest. A line of strong convection over northeast Montana will
continue to move east. Some of the latest cams show this activity
moving into western north dakota around midnight, but most are
overdone on the current extent of convection. Will have to see
how the line holds up as we move through the evening and
environment become less unfavorable.
Main changes were to update latest sky cover and pops based on
latest satellite and radar imagery.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Rainfall across the James River Valley this evening and
thunderstorm potential Wednesday highlight the short term
forecast.
Wrap around and deformation rainfall associated with the surface
low across northeast South Dakota will continue to be focused
across the James and Red River Valleys the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. One thing to monitor is non-
supercell tornadoes that are occurring with a line of
thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota along the surface warm
front. However, the best instability and surface vorticity does
look to remain just south and east of the James River Valley in
North Dakota.
Otherwise, diurnal isolated convection is possible across the
west where sunshine has been occurring most of the day. Around
1500 j/kg of ML CAPE has developed, however, deep layer shear is
and will remain weak, along with upper level forcing. Thus, severe
thunderstorms are not expected. For tonight given the rainfall, a
patchy fog mention was added to much of the area.
On Wednesday, instability is forecast to build through the
afternoon and evening across western North Dakota into eastern
Montana ahead of cyclogenesis across eastern Wyoming and Montana.
Overall, 500 mb heights are forecast to build through the day,
which is a signal that the synoptic setup may not be overly
supportive of convective initiation. The best chance for
thunderstorms will likely hold off until the late evening and
overnight across the northwest and north central.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Multiple chances for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible for much of the area Wednesday night through at least
Saturday.
From the short term, the best chances for possible severe
convection is late Wednesday evening and night northwest and north
central with a strengthening low level jet and the arrival of
greater upper level forcing. Strong deep layer shear and up to
1000-1500 j/kg of MU CAPE would support the possibility for severe
convection. Thereafter, the Northern Plains remains under
southwest flow aloft through Saturday. This pattern points to the
potential for near daily rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Details in timing and threats each day will become clear when
capping and forcing mechanisms become more certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings remain at KJMS at 02 UTC.
Updated KJMS to keep a mention of IFR to occasionally LIFR
ceilings and vsbys through mid morning. Added a VCTS at KISN from
05-08 UTC.
Models indicate possible IFR- LIFR developing this evening and
continuing through 12 UTC then lifting through the morning. Leaned
toward this guidance but not as pessimistic, went mainly IFR
through 12 UTC. VFR conditions to begin the taf period elsewhere.
Did keep a mention of fog at KBIS around 10 UTC. Brought some
increasing clouds to the west around midnight will update for
possible convection with the late evening update.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
916 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The SPC 01z SWODY1 update shifts the convective Slight Risk area
into southeast minnesota and leaves only a band of counties across
the far southern fa in a Marginal Risk through the remainder of
the overnight period. Else widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms are the main threat. At 02z...radar had a broad area
of deformation band rain extending north of a surface low near
Lisbon and across most of eastern ND. So sig fcst updates planned
for this late evening period.
UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Surface low along the North/South dakota border south of JMS.
Associated boundary runs along the border then SE along the
Minnesota River Valley. Tornadic storms which developed along
boundary over NE SD into west central MN have dissipated. Only LTG
strikes currently just SE and SW of the forecast area. Minor
instability and cape continues in these areas (southern quarter of
the fa) with pretty stable air northward. Guidance does not shift
more favored convective parameters northward so based on this and
current radar imagery and lightning detection have trimmed thunder
mention. Also adjusted pops a bit downward as rain not as
widespread and more spotty except across the far west and east. With
low and boundary still along the border am hesitant to drop all
mention of severe potential mainly with social media and graphics etc.
Threat does appear minimal other than brief spin up tornadoes
although non-supercell tornado parameter remains over NE SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Main challenge for tonight is severe weather potential across far
southeast ND into portions of west central MN. The sfc low still
seems to be somewhere west of Watertown SD with a warm front
extending out to the ESE toward southern MN. An area of
deformation rain also extends from west of KABR northward through
KJMS and Carrington. The stronger convection has been firing
across SW MN near the warm front and is tracking ENE. The
extensive cloud cover and rain has limited the instability across
our slight risk area (KBWP to KFFM). Tornadoes are forming along
the warm front and near the sfc low where there are better VGP
values. Up in this FA, things just looking weaker. Latest high
resolution guidance show some development late this afternoon into
the early evening across southeast ND into west central MN, but
they may just be strong storms and not severe ones. Will be
closely watching things however. Models are also showing less pcpn
with the storms. Looking like the deformation rain will not be too
heavy, as less overall convection means less rain overall. This
rain may linger into the night and portions of Wed, especially
over the MN FA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Did not make too many changes to the forecast in this time frame
due to potential severe weather. Did remove any pcpn chances in
the Thursday evening time frame, with most models looking dry. Do
have chances late Thu night into Fri.
Saturday to Tuesday... Southwest flow aloft with a short wave will
bring continued PCPN chances to the area Saturday and through
Saturday night into Sunday. Moist airmass with dewpoints in the 60s
will fuel storms...FROPA Sunday AM will push the storms east and
bring drier...mid 50s dewpoint air into the region. This will limit
convective activity Monday and Tuesday as flow becomes nearly zonal.
As for temperatures upper 70s to upper 80s on Saturday will give way
to cooler air... 70s for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Following guidance with CIGS gradually lowering from S-N overnight
as low lifts northward. Currently T treat looks minimal except for
the far south and this will be isold. Expecting MVFR/IFR CIGs
fairly widespread by morning.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JK
AVIATION...Voelker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Widespread showers continue over eastern ND from the Turtle
Mountains area through the James River Valley. This activity will
continue to move slowly east. Mostly clear over central and
western ND with only a couple dissipating cells over the far
southwest. A line of strong convection over northeast Montana will
continue to move east. Some of the latest cams show this activity
moving into western north dakota around midnight, but most are
overdone on the current extent of convection. Will have to see
how the line holds up as we move through the evening and
environment become less unfavorable.
Main changes were to update latest sky cover and pops based on
latest satellite and radar imagery.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Rainfall across the James River Valley this evening and
thunderstorm potential Wednesday highlight the short term
forecast.
Wrap around and deformation rainfall associated with the surface
low across northeast South Dakota will continue to be focused
across the James and Red River Valleys the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. One thing to monitor is non-
supercell tornadoes that are occurring with a line of
thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota along the surface warm
front. However, the best instability and surface vorticity does
look to remain just south and east of the James River Valley in
North Dakota.
Otherwise, diurnal isolated convection is possible across the
west where sunshine has been occurring most of the day. Around
1500 j/kg of ML CAPE has developed, however, deep layer shear is
and will remain weak, along with upper level forcing. Thus, severe
thunderstorms are not expected. For tonight given the rainfall, a
patchy fog mention was added to much of the area.
On Wednesday, instability is forecast to build through the
afternoon and evening across western North Dakota into eastern
Montana ahead of cyclogenesis across eastern Wyoming and Montana.
Overall, 500 mb heights are forecast to build through the day,
which is a signal that the synoptic setup may not be overly
supportive of convective initiation. The best chance for
thunderstorms will likely hold off until the late evening and
overnight across the northwest and north central.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Multiple chances for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible for much of the area Wednesday night through at least
Saturday.
From the short term, the best chances for possible severe
convection is late Wednesday evening and night northwest and north
central with a strengthening low level jet and the arrival of
greater upper level forcing. Strong deep layer shear and up to
1000-1500 j/kg of MU CAPE would support the possibility for severe
convection. Thereafter, the Northern Plains remains under
southwest flow aloft through Saturday. This pattern points to the
potential for near daily rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Details in timing and threats each day will become clear when
capping and forcing mechanisms become more certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
MVFR to IFR conditions at KJMS to begin the taf period with
showers. Models indicate possible IFR-LIFR developing this evening
and continuing through 12 UTC then lifting through the morning.
Leaned toward this guidance but not as pessimistic, went mainly
IFR through 12 UTC. VFR conditions to begin the taf period
elsewhere. Did keep a mention of fog at KBIS around 10 UTC.
Brought some increasing clouds to the west around midnight will
update for possible convection with the late evening update.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Surface low along the North/South dakota border south of JMS.
Associated boundary runs along the border then SE along the
Minnesota River Valley. Tornadic storms which developed along
boundary over NE SD into west central MN have dissipated. Only LTG
strikes currently just SE and SW of the forecast area. Minor
instability and cape continues in these areas (southern quarter of
the fa) with pretty stable air northward. Guidance does not shift
more favored convective parameters northward so based on this and
current radar imagery and lightning detection have trimmed thunder
mention. Also adjusted pops a bit downward as rain not as
widespread and more spotty except across the far west and east. With
low and boundary still along the border am hesitant to drop all
mention of severe potential mainly with social media and graphics etc.
Threat does appear minimal other than brief spin up tornadoes
although non-supercell tornado parameter remains over NE SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Main challenge for tonight is severe weather potential across far
southeast ND into portions of west central MN. The sfc low still
seems to be somewhere west of Watertown SD with a warm front
extending out to the ESE toward southern MN. An area of
deformation rain also extends from west of KABR northward through
KJMS and Carrington. The stronger convection has been firing
across SW MN near the warm front and is tracking ENE. The
extensive cloud cover and rain has limited the instability across
our slight risk area (KBWP to KFFM). Tornadoes are forming along
the warm front and near the sfc low where there are better VGP
values. Up in this FA, things just looking weaker. Latest high
resolution guidance show some development late this afternoon into
the early evening across southeast ND into west central MN, but
they may just be strong storms and not severe ones. Will be
closely watching things however. Models are also showing less pcpn
with the storms. Looking like the deformation rain will not be too
heavy, as less overall convection means less rain overall. This
rain may linger into the night and portions of Wed, especially
over the MN FA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Did not make too many changes to the forecast in this time frame
due to potential severe weather. Did remove any pcpn chances in
the Thursday evening time frame, with most models looking dry. Do
have chances late Thu night into Fri.
Saturday to Tuesday... Southwest flow aloft with a short wave will
bring continued PCPN chances to the area Saturday and through
Saturday night into Sunday. Moist airmass with dewpoints in the 60s
will fuel storms...FROPA Sunday AM will push the storms east and
bring drier...mid 50s dewpoint air into the region. This will limit
convective activity Monday and Tuesday as flow becomes nearly zonal.
As for temperatures upper 70s to upper 80s on Saturday will give way
to cooler air... 70s for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Following guidance with CIGS gradually lowering from S-N overnight
as low lifts northward. Currently T treat looks minimal except for
the far south and this will be isold. Expecting MVFR/IFR CIGs
fairly widespread by morning.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JK
AVIATION...Voelker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Rainfall across the James River Valley this evening and
thunderstorm potential Wednesday highlight the short term
forecast.
Wrap around and deformation rainfall associated with the surface
low across northeast South Dakota will continue to be focused
across the James and Red River Valleys the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. One thing to monitor is non-
supercell tornadoes that are occurring with a line of
thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota along the surface warm
front. However, the best instability and surface vorticity does
look to remain just south and east of the James River Valley in
North Dakota.
Otherwise, diurnal isolated convection is possible across the
west where sunshine has been occurring most of the day. Around
1500 j/kg of ML CAPE has developed, however, deep layer shear is
and will remain weak, along with upper level forcing. Thus, severe
thunderstorms are not expected. For tonight given the rainfall, a
patchy fog mention was added to much of the area.
On Wednesday, instability is forecast to build through the
afternoon and evening across western North Dakota into eastern
Montana ahead of cyclogenesis across eastern Wyoming and Montana.
Overall, 500 mb heights are forecast to build through the day,
which is a signal that the synoptic setup may not be overly
supportive of convective initiation. The best chance for
thunderstorms will likely hold off until the late evening and
overnight across the northwest and north central.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Multiple chances for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible for much of the area Wednesday night through at least
Saturday.
From the short term, the best chances for possible severe
convection is late Wednesday evening and night northwest and north
central with a strengthening low level jet and the arrival of
greater upper level forcing. Strong deep layer shear and up to
1000-1500 j/kg of MU CAPE would support the possibility for severe
convection. Thereafter, the Northern Plains remains under
southwest flow aloft through Saturday. This pattern points to the
potential for near daily rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Details in timing and threats each day will become clear when
capping and forcing mechanisms become more certain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
MVFR/IFR conditions may continue through much of the afternoon
and evening at KJMS in rain and stratus. Patchy fog is possible
across much of the area late tonight into Wednesday morning,
especially at KBIS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible across western North Dakota today, with VFR conditions
expected outside of showers and storms.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Main challenge for tonight is severe weather potential across far
southeast ND into portions of west central MN. The sfc low still
seems to be somewhere west of Watertown SD with a warm front
extending out to the ESE toward southern MN. An area of
deformation rain also extends from west of KABR northward through
KJMS and Carrington. The stronger convection has been firing
across SW MN near the warm front and is tracking ENE. The
extensive cloud cover and rain has limited the instability across
our slight risk area (KBWP to KFFM). Tornadoes are forming along
the warm front and near the sfc low where there are better VGP
values. Up in this FA, things just looking weaker. Latest high
resolution guidance show some development late this afternoon into
the early evening across southeast ND into west central MN, but
they may just be strong storms and not severe ones. Will be
closely watching things however. Models are also showing less pcpn
with the storms. Looking like the deformation rain will not be too
heavy, as less overall convection means less rain overall. This
rain may linger into the night and portions of Wed, especially
over the MN FA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Did not make too many changes to the forecast in this time frame
due to potential severe weather. Did remove any pcpn chances in
the Thursday evening time frame, with most models looking dry. Do
have chances late Thu night into Fri.
Saturday to Tuesday... Southwest flow aloft with a short wave will
bring continued PCPN chances to the area Saturday and through
Saturday night into Sunday. Moist airmass with dewpoints in the 60s
will fuel storms...FROPA Sunday AM will push the storms east and
bring drier...mid 50s dewpoint air into the region. This will limit
convective activity Monday and Tuesday as flow becomes nearly zonal.
As for temperatures upper 70s to upper 80s on Saturday will give way
to cooler air... 70s for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Line of showers with embedded thunder working north to south this
afternoon...will bring TSRA to FAR in the next 2 hours and reach GFK
around 21Z... redevelopment likely south of FAR late afternoon. Area
of rain with possibly embedded thunder to move from SW to NE
possibly impacting all TAF sites at some point in time through the
late afternoon into the overnight. In its wake CIGS expected to be
IFR for a few hours before SCT out tomorrow.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JK
AVIATION...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The sfc low is currently down in South Dakota just west of
Watertown, where skies have cleared a little. SPC meso page is
showing some building sfc based CAPE there with values still in
the 500 to 1000 J/KG range. To the north of this low, there is
still a lot of cloud cover and rain cooled air. SPC kept the
slight risk area across far southeast ND into portions of west
central MN as it was, so they are still thinking there is a
potential there. Models try to bring the sfc low up into southeast
ND by early evening, but there is a lot of uncertainty in this.
However, because of this, some of the high resolution models
still indicate a few stronger storms over far southeast ND into
portions of west central MN...but they are showing them fairly
late or after 00z WED. So will generally be watching and waiting
to see how things progress over east central and northeast SD
through the afternoon. Made a few minor adjustments to the
forecast, but overall it is still looking pretty good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
HRRR/RAP models are a tad west of the operational models in terms
of placement of the 500 mb feature and heaviest rain area.
HRRR/RAP has heaviest rains staying in eastern ND as upper wave
now nr Valentine Nebraska moves north-northeast today. WPC QPF is
a bit east of HRRR/RAP. Used WPC QPF blend so will monitor.
Nonetheless did slow down northeast advance of precip into se nd
just a bit with main rainfall moving into the srn fcst area 15-18
UTC and then spreading north reaching nrn areas by 00z. Rain
exists late tonight and early Wed morning. A solid 0.50 to 1.50
inches seem reasonable with PWATs in the 1.50 to 1.70 inch range
advecting in...though 850 mb inflow isnt all that strong nr 20kts.
Frontogenetic forcing is quite good for a period just north of
the upper wave moving north later this aftn as well. Instability
is quite weak though so only isolated thunderstorms will occur.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A brief dry period Wed night into Thursday as high pressure comes
in. Then its back to a building 500 mb ridge and our area in a
west-southwest flow aloft.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WENT WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA. UPPER WAVE EMBEDS IN THE
RIDGE BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS IT A BIT. CORRESPONDING SFC FEATURE
WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR BY LATE SUN/MON...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER WAVE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MEASURABLE PCPN IN THE FORM OF -SHRA/TSTMS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS START
THE PERIOD ON THE WARM SIDE...BECOMING MORE SEASONAL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Line of showers with embedded thunder working north to south this
afternoon...will bring TSRA to FAR in the next 2 hours and reach GFK
around 21Z... redevelopment likely south of FAR late afternoon. Area
of rain with possibly embedded thunder to move from SW to NE
possibly impacting all TAF sites at some point in time through the
late afternoon into the overnight. In its wake CIGS expected to be
IFR for a few hours before SCT out tomorrow.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Deformation and wrap around precipitation across central and
eastern North Dakota associated with the low across northeast
South Dakota has been well assimilated into the 14-16 UTC rapidly
updating suites, and will utilize their solutions for
precipitation through the evening. Across the west with some
sunshine, around 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE has developed. However, deep
layer shear is and will remain weak, along with upper level
forcing. While diurnal showers and storms are possible across the
west, severe thunderstorms are not expected.
UPDATE Issued at 936 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A line of slowly propagating, regenerative convection has impacted
the Bismarck and Mandan area since approximately 1240 UTC this
morning. This line continues to sustain itself along the
precipitable water axis with slow Corfidi vectors around 10 kts.
Overall, little change is expected over the next one to two hours.
The Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Bismarck and Mandan
areas through 1645 UTC. Thus far, minor street flooding has been
reported across Bismarck. This will continue to be monitored.
UPDATE Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers have continued to re-generate over north central ND during
the last few hours, and radar suggests that trend may continue for
a while, so we increased PoPs in that area with this update cycle.
Little in the way of change was made to the rest of the forecast,
with the main challenge today determining the northwest extent of
the more solid showers and storms. Recent RAP and HRRR model runs
continue to suggest the James River valley will be favored for
heavier precipitation, with Bismarck/Mandan near the west edge of
the more solid precipitation shield.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Confidence in the forecast for today is not high with respect to
rain and thunderstorms. Great way to start the discussion, right?
Showers across the north are left over from what moved out of
Montana last night. They were pushing north but the parent short
wave was slow to exit, resulting in continued shower formation on
the south side of the activity.
A large area of rain has been over south central South Dakota all
night. The high resolution short term models brought this batch
north with the highest chances of rain from Bismarck through the
James River Valley. Radar trends have been to weaken the area of
rain and push it more east. In turn the latest hourly model runs
have still brought it into North Dakota, but farther east, with
Bismarck just getting a glancing blow. The latest trend, as of
this writing, is that the large rain area was rapidly weakening
while convection was firing on the nose of the short wave and left
front of the jet max, to the east of it. This spells uncertainty
as to just how much rain falls, and where. Looks like the James
River Valley has the highest chances.
Another fly is the dry slot, where it ends up, and the likelihood
that it will lead to thunderstorm development. And, another wave
coming through eastern Montana later with some storms possible
along the state line there.
At any rate, rain ends this evening and dry weather starts
Wednesday off before the next wave in the southwest flow comes in
later in the day.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Storms look possible later Wednesday. Then, on Thursday the ridge
builds back in with sunshine and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. A
southeast surface flow brings increasing dew points that in turn
act to increase instability. The lifting mechanism is a surface
trough coming out of Montana. This looks to bring the chance for
severe storms to the forecast area Thursday evening.
Southwest flow and wave after wave through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
MVFR conditions in rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected across
central North Dakota at KJMS/KBIS/KMOT this afternoon. Conditions
will improve to VFR at KBIS/KMOT by early evening. However,
MVFR/IFR conditions may continue through much of the evening at
KJMS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere
across western North Dakota today, with VFR conditions expected
outside of showers and storms once late morning MVFR cumulus
fields lift.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
445 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure ridge to the south and east will bring
southwesterly winds to the region into the weekend, enhancing rain
chances across the east coast metropolitan areas. Thereafter, a
trough of low pressure and weak cold front will keep unsettled
conditions in place through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Leading edge of deeper moisture arrived from the south and west
earlier this afternoon, inducing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This activity will continue to impact the
Everglades and western suburbs of the east coast metropolitan
areas through early evening before diminishing.
For Thursday, southwesterly flow will increase further as a low-
level ridge centers southeast of the region and low pressure
develops in the vicinity of the Carolina coast. Deep tropical
moisture will pour into the region with PWAT values in excess of 2
inches possible. The result will be scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms by afternoon, with the main focus being eastern
sections of South Florida. Models now projecting that Friday may
be a bit drier, but still isolated to scattered activity can be
expected.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Cold front enters northern Florida Saturday and may slowly drag
through South Florida later in the weekend. Models are not in good
agreement with this feature, with ECMWF forecasting a drying
trend/stronger front, and GFS stalling the feature over the region
keeping wetter conditions in place. For now, focused weekend
thunderstorm chances over the northern parts of the CWA, where the
best chance of fropa will be. Winds will turn easterly early next
week, bringing the best chances for diurnal convection to interior
sections of the Florida.
If the cold front can push across South Florida, northeasterly
winds Sunday and Monday could create hazardous rip currents along
Atlantic beaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms so far this afternoon have
been focused near the southeast terminals, with a few surface
gusts of 25 to 35 knots reported near the strongest cells.
Activity may spread a bit farther northward late this afternoon
but will diminish around sunset with VFR conditions and light
winds prevailing overnight. Scattered showers are expected to
again develop midday Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest wind of up to 15 knots can be expected through Saturday.
Winds may transition to the north on Sunday then east early next
week. There is potential for a northerly well to reach Atlantic
waters Sunday into Monday, and this could create hazardous boating
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 77 92 74 91 / 20 60 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 78 91 76 91 / 20 60 20 30
Miami 77 91 77 91 / 20 60 20 30
Naples 77 89 78 86 / 10 40 20 30
&&
.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
347 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
No major changes to the forecast thinking this afternoon as
showers are slowly beginning to develop away from the coast.
Westerly flow has allowed the seabreeze to push fairly far inland
already this afternoon as it`s already well east of the I-75
corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely to
develop over the next few hours with the greatest activity
expected across our far interior and towards the east coast of the
state. Overnight temperatures will again be mild with most areas
bottoming out in the mid/upper 70s with near 80 along the coast.
On Thursday, westerly flow will remain in place as a mid-level
trough sinks down into the area. Diurnal convection will once
again focus on the interior and the east coast. Afternoon highs
will be near seasonal norms with upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
.LONG TERM...
The work week will come to an end on Friday with a highly amplified
upper level pattern for June over North America. Large longwave
ridge will cover the central CONUS up into central Canada before the
downstream flow dives back south into longwave troughing over the
eastern third of the nation/eastern seaboard. This trough (or a
least a loosely aligned piece) will extend all the way down over the
FL peninsula/eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface...the
subtropical ridge axis will be displaced well to the south through
the FL straits.
Friday morning should see a scattering of showers moving ashore from
the eastern Gulf within the favorable low level westerly flow
underneath the support of the weak trough aloft. Honestly...this
pattern looked considerably more wet for Friday several days ago
then it does with current NWP guidance. The forcing is simply so
weak...and the potential for abundant clouds may inhibit diurnal
instability. Certainly worthy of chance pops throughout the day
given the upper level support and westerly flow...but am not ready
to paint likely pops in any location.
The day of the forecast that currently looks the most unsettled will
be Saturday. A strong shortwave will exit the mid-atlantic/Carolina
coast Friday night supporting cyclogenesis off the SE CONUS coast.
Frontogenesis trailing west from this low will then drop south into
the region during the day Saturday. This feature should be strong
enough to support sct-nmrs showers and storms. In this case...feel
much more confident going with likely PoPs over our central and
northern zones. Given the expectation that the front will continue
to make some progress south...may very likely need to bump up PoPs
to likely over the far southern zones (especially the second half
of the day) in future forecasts.
Thereafter...during the second half of the weekend and early portion
of next week...the forecast confidence decreases again. Global
guidance is still not in good agreement with the evolution of this
meridional evolution of this front after Saturday. The GFS has been
consistent stalling the boundary across the peninsula and keeping
our weather more unsettled. At the same time the Ecmwf has been
consistent pushing the boundary south of our zones and drying things
out. The ECMWF has some support now from the GEM and will lean this
forecast toward that drier solution. However...giving the GFS the
respect it deserves...will not completely remove PoPs for Sunday or
Monday.
By later Tuesday and especially Wednesday we are likely to return to
a more typical summer forecast dominated by diurnal sea-breeze
convection and seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will remain generally west to southwest through the TAF
period. Some coastal showers will again be possible in the morning
hours Thursday but they should be isolated in nature and don`t
have mentioned in the forecast at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will remain centered south of the waters, with
light west to southwest winds through Thursday. Friday into Friday
night, an approaching frontal boundary will lead to increasing
winds, especially across the northern waters. Winds may approach
cautionary levels Friday into Friday night. The front looks to
move across the waters over the weekend, with east to northeast
winds prevailing into early next week. Aside from Friday into
Friday night, winds look to remain below 15 knots and seas below 4
feet. However, winds and seas may be locally enhanced around any
marine thunderstorms that occur.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 89 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 91 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 91 76 90 / 20 40 10 40
SRQ 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
BKV 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 30 40
SPG 79 89 79 88 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
347 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
No major changes to the forecast thinking this afternoon as
showers are slowly beginning to develop away from the coast.
Westerly flow has allowed the seabreeze to push fairly far inland
already this afternoon as it`s already well east of the I-75
corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely to
develop over the next few hours with the greatest activity
expected across our far interior and towards the east coast of the
state. Overnight temperatures will again be mild with most areas
bottoming out in the mid/upper 70s with near 80 along the coast.
On Thursday, westerly flow will remain in place as a mid-level
trough sinks down into the area. Diurnal convection will once
again focus on the interior and the east coast. Afternoon highs
will be near seasonal norms with upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
.LONG TERM...
The work week will come to an end on Friday with a highly amplified
upper level pattern for June over North America. Large longwave
ridge will cover the central CONUS up into central Canada before the
downstream flow dives back south into longwave troughing over the
eastern third of the nation/eastern seaboard. This trough (or a
least a loosely aligned piece) will extend all the way down over the
FL peninsula/eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface...the
subtropical ridge axis will be displaced well to the south through
the FL straits.
Friday morning should see a scattering of showers moving ashore from
the eastern Gulf within the favorable low level westerly flow
underneath the support of the weak trough aloft. Honestly...this
pattern looked considerably more wet for Friday several days ago
then it does with current NWP guidance. The forcing is simply so
weak...and the potential for abundant clouds may inhibit diurnal
instability. Certainly worthy of chance pops throughout the day
given the upper level support and westerly flow...but am not ready
to paint likely pops in any location.
The day of the forecast that currently looks the most unsettled will
be Saturday. A strong shortwave will exit the mid-atlantic/Carolina
coast Friday night supporting cyclogenesis off the SE CONUS coast.
Frontogenesis trailing west from this low will then drop south into
the region during the day Saturday. This feature should be strong
enough to support sct-nmrs showers and storms. In this case...feel
much more confident going with likely PoPs over our central and
northern zones. Given the expectation that the front will continue
to make some progress south...may very likely need to bump up PoPs
to likely over the far southern zones (especially the second half
of the day) in future forecasts.
Thereafter...during the second half of the weekend and early portion
of next week...the forecast confidence decreases again. Global
guidance is still not in good agreement with the evolution of this
meridional evolution of this front after Saturday. The GFS has been
consistent stalling the boundary across the peninsula and keeping
our weather more unsettled. At the same time the Ecmwf has been
consistent pushing the boundary south of our zones and drying things
out. The ECMWF has some support now from the GEM and will lean this
forecast toward that drier solution. However...giving the GFS the
respect it deserves...will not completely remove PoPs for Sunday or
Monday.
By later Tuesday and especially Wednesday we are likely to return to
a more typical summer forecast dominated by diurnal sea-breeze
convection and seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will remain generally west to southwest through the TAF
period. Some coastal showers will again be possible in the morning
hours Thursday but they should be isolated in nature and don`t
have mentioned in the forecast at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will remain centered south of the waters, with
light west to southwest winds through Thursday. Friday into Friday
night, an approaching frontal boundary will lead to increasing
winds, especially across the northern waters. Winds may approach
cautionary levels Friday into Friday night. The front looks to
move across the waters over the weekend, with east to northeast
winds prevailing into early next week. Aside from Friday into
Friday night, winds look to remain below 15 knots and seas below 4
feet. However, winds and seas may be locally enhanced around any
marine thunderstorms that occur.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 89 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 91 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 91 76 90 / 20 40 10 40
SRQ 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
BKV 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 30 40
SPG 79 89 79 88 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
344 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Higher coverage of showers and storms is expected from s
Volusia south-southwest into the interior this evening as scattered
storms from the west approach the slowly moving east coast breeze
which is moving just on to mainland at mid afternoon. Southwest mid
level flow will allow some storms to move back toward the coast into
this evening from Brevard south to the Treasure coast. 15z Cape
sounding indicated adequate moisture and favorable parameters for
some wet microbursts with some of the stronger storms. Expect
activity to diminish into late evening with low level southwest flow
continuing ahead of sfc low pressure dropping SE twd the VA coast.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s for the overnight.
Thursday...West to west-southwest low level flow is forecast to
increase to around 20 knots on Thu with PWATS initially from 1.6 to
1.7 inches increasing into the afternoon. Scattered convection
should develop on the west coast sea breeze and move toward the east
coast into the afternoon. Models indicate slightly deeper moisture
across the srn half of the area...will trend POPS 40 pct north to 40-
50 pct srn sections. Offshore flow will allow highs to reach
90/lower 90s in the afternoon.
Modified Previous Discussion...
Friday...A potent shortwave is expected to round the base of a
deepening trough over New England during the day, keeping lower
heights and stout westerly low level flow in place over the central
Peninsula. Scattered diurnal convection expected to once again focus
on the east side of the peninsula with max temps near 90/low 90s
most areas, even along the coast.
Sat-Tue...The aforementioned shortwave will aid in surface
cyclogenesis over the Carolina waters on Saturday as it gradually
dampens out over the southeast. Whereas the GFS continues to insist
on a more strung out area of low pressure (from the Carolina`s into
the NE Gulf of Mexico), the ECMWF consolidates its pressure field
into one low center and shunts it off towards the northeast away
from the area. This leads to a host of forecasting challenges for
the extended in regards to both winds and precipitation chances.
For now appears highest rain chances will still occur Saturday with
pre-frontal convection as frontal boundary slides toward the area
through the day. Model consensus has likely POPs which will be
followed for Saturday. Again larger forecast uncertainty from Sunday
into early next week with model solutions divergent. At this
point...have made only slight adjustments from previous forecast
with rain chances potentially higher if GFS solutions verify with
weak low pressure developing near FL and deeper moisture lingering
over the peninsula. ECMWF solution has drier forecast behind the
front Mon-Wed as front moves south of the area and drier air wraps
into N FL from low pressure off the mid-Atlc. With higher than
normal uncertainty low range scattered POPs for the extended range
is prudent.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA from KDAB-KMCO vcnty in the late afternoon will transition
twd east coast terminals from KTIX-KFPR into the evening. +RA with
IFR VSBYs possible with stronger convection. Convection should
diminish 02z-04z with VFR conds expected overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Southerly flow to 10-15 knots will veer to the SW
overnight with some convection moving twd the near shore waters this
evening. seas 2 ft near shore and around 3 ft offshore expected.
Thu-Fri...Strengthening offshore flow is forecast into late week as
a series of low pressure systems push off the mid Atlantic coast.
Westerly winds may reach cautionary levels (15 -20 knots) Thu night
into Friday. Seas for the near shore waters 2 ft to 3-4 ft offshore
and approaching 5 feet well offshore in the stout offshore flow,
especially by Friday night as offshore flow approaches 20 knots.
Weekend...Forecast uncertainty is higher than normal as models
remain divided on what to do with an area of low pressure to our
north over the weekend. For now, the general consensus is that a
frontal boundary will move through the waters Saturday night. Higher
storm chances are forecast with the approaching front and possibly
continuing across the srn waters into Sunday. Wave models forecast
larger NE swells reaching the waters by Sunday/Sunday night with a
long fetch of stronger NE-ENE winds north of the area behind the
front over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 91 74 90 / 20 40 20 40
MCO 74 92 74 90 / 20 40 20 40
MLB 75 92 73 90 / 30 40 10 40
VRB 74 92 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
LEE 76 90 75 89 / 10 40 20 40
SFB 75 92 75 91 / 20 40 20 40
ORL 75 91 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
FPR 73 92 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
&&
.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Volkmer
AVIATION/RADAR...Bragaw
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
344 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Higher coverage of showers and storms is expected from s
Volusia south-southwest into the interior this evening as scattered
storms from the west approach the slowly moving east coast breeze
which is moving just on to mainland at mid afternoon. Southwest mid
level flow will allow some storms to move back toward the coast into
this evening from Brevard south to the Treasure coast. 15z Cape
sounding indicated adequate moisture and favorable parameters for
some wet microbursts with some of the stronger storms. Expect
activity to diminish into late evening with low level southwest flow
continuing ahead of sfc low pressure dropping SE twd the VA coast.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s for the overnight.
Thursday...West to west-southwest low level flow is forecast to
increase to around 20 knots on Thu with PWATS initially from 1.6 to
1.7 inches increasing into the afternoon. Scattered convection
should develop on the west coast sea breeze and move toward the east
coast into the afternoon. Models indicate slightly deeper moisture
across the srn half of the area...will trend POPS 40 pct north to 40-
50 pct srn sections. Offshore flow will allow highs to reach
90/lower 90s in the afternoon.
Modified Previous Discussion...
Friday...A potent shortwave is expected to round the base of a
deepening trough over New England during the day, keeping lower
heights and stout westerly low level flow in place over the central
Peninsula. Scattered diurnal convection expected to once again focus
on the east side of the peninsula with max temps near 90/low 90s
most areas, even along the coast.
Sat-Tue...The aforementioned shortwave will aid in surface
cyclogenesis over the Carolina waters on Saturday as it gradually
dampens out over the southeast. Whereas the GFS continues to insist
on a more strung out area of low pressure (from the Carolina`s into
the NE Gulf of Mexico), the ECMWF consolidates its pressure field
into one low center and shunts it off towards the northeast away
from the area. This leads to a host of forecasting challenges for
the extended in regards to both winds and precipitation chances.
For now appears highest rain chances will still occur Saturday with
pre-frontal convection as frontal boundary slides toward the area
through the day. Model consensus has likely POPs which will be
followed for Saturday. Again larger forecast uncertainty from Sunday
into early next week with model solutions divergent. At this
point...have made only slight adjustments from previous forecast
with rain chances potentially higher if GFS solutions verify with
weak low pressure developing near FL and deeper moisture lingering
over the peninsula. ECMWF solution has drier forecast behind the
front Mon-Wed as front moves south of the area and drier air wraps
into N FL from low pressure off the mid-Atlc. With higher than
normal uncertainty low range scattered POPs for the extended range
is prudent.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA from KDAB-KMCO vcnty in the late afternoon will transition
twd east coast terminals from KTIX-KFPR into the evening. +RA with
IFR VSBYs possible with stronger convection. Convection should
diminish 02z-04z with VFR conds expected overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Southerly flow to 10-15 knots will veer to the SW
overnight with some convection moving twd the near shore waters this
evening. seas 2 ft near shore and around 3 ft offshore expected.
Thu-Fri...Strengthening offshore flow is forecast into late week as
a series of low pressure systems push off the mid Atlantic coast.
Westerly winds may reach cautionary levels (15 -20 knots) Thu night
into Friday. Seas for the near shore waters 2 ft to 3-4 ft offshore
and approaching 5 feet well offshore in the stout offshore flow,
especially by Friday night as offshore flow approaches 20 knots.
Weekend...Forecast uncertainty is higher than normal as models
remain divided on what to do with an area of low pressure to our
north over the weekend. For now, the general consensus is that a
frontal boundary will move through the waters Saturday night. Higher
storm chances are forecast with the approaching front and possibly
continuing across the srn waters into Sunday. Wave models forecast
larger NE swells reaching the waters by Sunday/Sunday night with a
long fetch of stronger NE-ENE winds north of the area behind the
front over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 91 74 90 / 20 40 20 40
MCO 74 92 74 90 / 20 40 20 40
MLB 75 92 73 90 / 30 40 10 40
VRB 74 92 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
LEE 76 90 75 89 / 10 40 20 40
SFB 75 92 75 91 / 20 40 20 40
ORL 75 91 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
FPR 73 92 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
&&
.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Volkmer
AVIATION/RADAR...Bragaw
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are spread across
the area this afternoon with a few strong storms with gusty winds
possible through the afternoon. In addition, with higher PW values
(around 2.0 inches) the convection this afternoon will continue to
be efficient rain producers. Some minor ponding of water is
possible, however the storms are moving, so main concern would be to
watch for multiple rounds of heavy rain.
Convection should decrease significantly by 00-01z however another
round is expected again overnight. While the timing differs,
multiple hi-res models are depicting an MCS overnight moving into
the area and weakening or a complex developing over the CWA late
tonight. Best thinking in terms of timing is for the second round
after midnight.
With extensive cloud cover tonight, low temperatures will once
again be above normal (mid 70s, except upper 70s along the coast).
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The active convective pattern the area is currently in will continue
through Friday, with a tropical airmass already in place and a broad
mid/upper trough continuing to traverse the area. Convection is
expected to be ongoing across much of the area by Thursday morning
as a result. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the
strongest thunderstorms. The weak upper trough over the area will be
reinforced by energy from another shortwave trough diving
southeastward across the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic region Thursday
afternoon. This will yield some drier mid-level air and a slight
increase in shear aloft (15-20kts) across the forecast area, which
would aid in the redevelopment of convection Thursday afternoon.
However, the recovery of the atmosphere from convection earlier in
the day will determine the coverage and severe potential of any new
convection Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday, the bulk of deep layer moisture will be displaced off to the
southeast by the upper level trough moving across the Mid-Atlantic
states, which will mitigate the coverage of convection across the
area during the day. Operational and ECAM model guidance are in
agreement in best moisture and thunderstorm chances being confined
to the front Friday afternoon/evening. Clearer conditions, hot
temperatures, ample instability, sufficient moisture, forcing along
the front and upper level shear associated with a second impulse on
the order of 20-30kts at 500 mb suggest that some organized storm
structures will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. The severe
potential will need to be monitored in future forecast packages.
Widespread cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures
confined to the mid 80s to lower 90s Thursday, with upper 90s to
near 100F degrees away from coastal areas on Friday. Heat indiceswill
range from 100-105F, with some indices up to 107F degrees in
isolated areas across the area.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Operational model guidance is in agreement in bringing the cold
front through the region Friday night and Saturday, leaving cooler
temperatures and drier conditions in its wake. There remains a fair
amount of disagreement among operational model and ensemble
solutions regarding the evolution of the overall pattern post front.
The latest operational GFS and its ensemble members has trended
toward a somewhat drier solution from late weekend onward, thus will
continue to favor the drier solution with POPs below seasonal levels
inherited from the previous package. Temperatures will run several
degrees below normal before rising to or just above normal by mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing
across the area today. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is possible
tonight, but still uncertain as to the timing and southern extent.
VFR is expected outside of the convection. Potential for MVFR
vsbys and cigs affecting ABY and VLD Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate southwest to west winds will persist until Saturday when
they veer to become northerly in the wake of a cold front. Seas will
generally be 2 to 4 feet during that time. Winds look to shift to
easterly by Saturday evening, with speeds possibly reaching
cautionary levels and persisting through the remainder of the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity will stay above 50 percent for the next several
days. Dispersions may be high on Friday due to high mixing heights
and transport winds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall from scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the next several days could lead to localized flooding of low lying
and poor drainage areas, especially in urban locations.
However, significant rises on the local river system are not
anticipated from this activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 89 76 98 74 / 40 60 20 30 60
Panama City 78 85 80 89 78 / 40 50 20 20 60
Dothan 74 91 74 96 72 / 50 50 20 30 50
Albany 74 92 74 98 71 / 50 50 30 30 50
Valdosta 74 88 73 97 72 / 40 50 30 30 60
Cross City 76 89 76 92 74 / 30 50 40 40 60
Apalachicola 78 87 79 90 77 / 40 50 20 20 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Fieux/Bennett
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Pullin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are spread across
the area this afternoon with a few strong storms with gusty winds
possible through the afternoon. In addition, with higher PW values
(around 2.0 inches) the convection this afternoon will continue to
be efficient rain producers. Some minor ponding of water is
possible, however the storms are moving, so main concern would be to
watch for multiple rounds of heavy rain.
Convection should decrease significantly by 00-01z however another
round is expected again overnight. While the timing differs,
multiple hi-res models are depicting an MCS overnight moving into
the area and weakening or a complex developing over the CWA late
tonight. Best thinking in terms of timing is for the second round
after midnight.
With extensive cloud cover tonight, low temperatures will once
again be above normal (mid 70s, except upper 70s along the coast).
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The active convective pattern the area is currently in will continue
through Friday, with a tropical airmass already in place and a broad
mid/upper trough continuing to traverse the area. Convection is
expected to be ongoing across much of the area by Thursday morning
as a result. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the
strongest thunderstorms. The weak upper trough over the area will be
reinforced by energy from another shortwave trough diving
southeastward across the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic region Thursday
afternoon. This will yield some drier mid-level air and a slight
increase in shear aloft (15-20kts) across the forecast area, which
would aid in the redevelopment of convection Thursday afternoon.
However, the recovery of the atmosphere from convection earlier in
the day will determine the coverage and severe potential of any new
convection Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday, the bulk of deep layer moisture will be displaced off to the
southeast by the upper level trough moving across the Mid-Atlantic
states, which will mitigate the coverage of convection across the
area during the day. Operational and ECAM model guidance are in
agreement in best moisture and thunderstorm chances being confined
to the front Friday afternoon/evening. Clearer conditions, hot
temperatures, ample instability, sufficient moisture, forcing along
the front and upper level shear associated with a second impulse on
the order of 20-30kts at 500 mb suggest that some organized storm
structures will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. The severe
potential will need to be monitored in future forecast packages.
Widespread cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures
confined to the mid 80s to lower 90s Thursday, with upper 90s to
near 100F degrees away from coastal areas on Friday. Heat indiceswill
range from 100-105F, with some indices up to 107F degrees in
isolated areas across the area.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Operational model guidance is in agreement in bringing the cold
front through the region Friday night and Saturday, leaving cooler
temperatures and drier conditions in its wake. There remains a fair
amount of disagreement among operational model and ensemble
solutions regarding the evolution of the overall pattern post front.
The latest operational GFS and its ensemble members has trended
toward a somewhat drier solution from late weekend onward, thus will
continue to favor the drier solution with POPs below seasonal levels
inherited from the previous package. Temperatures will run several
degrees below normal before rising to or just above normal by mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing
across the area today. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is possible
tonight, but still uncertain as to the timing and southern extent.
VFR is expected outside of the convection. Potential for MVFR
vsbys and cigs affecting ABY and VLD Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate southwest to west winds will persist until Saturday when
they veer to become northerly in the wake of a cold front. Seas will
generally be 2 to 4 feet during that time. Winds look to shift to
easterly by Saturday evening, with speeds possibly reaching
cautionary levels and persisting through the remainder of the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity will stay above 50 percent for the next several
days. Dispersions may be high on Friday due to high mixing heights
and transport winds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall from scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the next several days could lead to localized flooding of low lying
and poor drainage areas, especially in urban locations.
However, significant rises on the local river system are not
anticipated from this activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 89 76 98 74 / 40 60 20 30 60
Panama City 78 85 80 89 78 / 40 50 20 20 60
Dothan 74 91 74 96 72 / 50 50 20 30 50
Albany 74 92 74 98 71 / 50 50 30 30 50
Valdosta 74 88 73 97 72 / 40 50 30 30 60
Cross City 76 89 76 92 74 / 30 50 40 40 60
Apalachicola 78 87 79 90 77 / 40 50 20 20 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Fieux/Bennett
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Pullin
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
254 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels...(700-200 MB),Latest
available IR imagery as of 200 pm overlaid with model streamline
analysis depicts the center of a deep and warm middle and upper
anticyclonic ridge oriented from the Georgia coast east
southeastwards into the Western Atlantic to near 25 N 70 W. Closer to
the Florida Keys, A middle and upper level area of low pressure is
migrating west over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 23.5 N 84 W.
At the surface and in the lower to middle levels...(Surface to 700
mb). Latest available marine and land surface observations and
analysis detail a tropical wave analyzed still in the SW Caribbean
Sea but moving into Central America. Locally, A weak pressure pattern
remains at Keys latitude with a surface ridge just to the south of
the Keys and migrating south
.CURRENTLY...As of 200 pm, skies are mostly sunny across the islands
and adjoining waters. Temperatures across the islands are currently
in the Upper 80s to around 90 degrees. A few tiny showers are
developing along boundaries to the immediate north of the Lower Keys
attm. Some light showers impacted the Upper Keys from the Card Sound
Split to Ocean Reef, but the heavier clusters remained over the
Sounds. At present, winds along the C-man stations are south to
southwest at 5 to 10 knots, except variable around the Dry Tortugas.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight thru Saturday, A surface ridge will continue to
slide south of the Keys into the Florida Straits, probably into
International waters and near Cuba by late Thursday night and Friday.
As for tonight, expect boundaries from the south to creep northward
through the evening. This in combination with increasing moisture
will support a low chance for showers and thunderstorms. A 0-6 km
storm motion near 10 knots will support movement of showers and
storms across the Straits towards the Keys by late tonight.
Thereafter, latest available forecast soundings still illustrate
higher PWAT Thursday and Thursday evening. And given the position of
the surface ridging, chances for mesoscale showers and storms
will increase given well developed cumulus/towering cumulus cloud
lines expected Thursday and Thursday evening. The surface ridge will
remain well south of the Keys for the Friday through Saturday
periods, allowing gentle to moderate southwest to westerly flow to
remain across the islands. Given a less favorable orientation across
the islands and drier air in the middle levels, will maintain
isolated, 20 percent for showers and storms for these three periods.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday, Another surface ridge
will return north of the Keys across South Florida, allowing for
winds to return to an easterly component. A less favorable
environment for showers will be in place Saturday thru Sunday night
given southeast winds gentle to moderate southeast winds Saturday and
Saturday Night. Indications are that the gradient will increase for
the Sunday through Wednesday periods given deepening surface ridging
off of the Southeastern United States. In addition, the leading edge
of the SAL, now approaching the Eastern Caribbean Sea, may move
across the Keys Saturday through Sunday night, but Moderate to
possibly fresh breezes are expected during this time.
Thereafter,Some less defined inverted troughs moving across the
Tropical Atlantic are hinted at in the lower level flow for the
Monday through Wednesday period. As such will keep a low chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the grids for now, 30%. More
details to unfold as we get closer.
&&
.MARINE...No watches, warnings, advisories, or headlines through
Saturday night. An increasing gradient develops Sunday through Monday
night, allowing freshening breezes across the waters. SCEC conditions
seem possible across the Florida Straits but will wait for additional
consistency to insert.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals
tonight. Winds will be weak out of a generally southerly direction.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 78 90 80 88 / 40 50 20 20
Marathon 78 93 80 92 / 40 50 20 20
&&
.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........Futterman
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......Chesser
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
229 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.Short term...Tonight and Thursday...Scattered convection moving
across interior se Georgia aided by upper impulse to the west.
Airmass not as unstable as yesterday so storm strength not as
strong. Still may get isolated strong storm this afternoon that
could produce strong gusty winds. An increased sw flow has
prevented the east coast seabreeze formation so expect lesser
activity over ne Fl this evening. Convection may linger or return
to se Ga later tonight/early Thursday night as upper trough
amplifies into the southeast. Trough axis will approach south Ga
with the potential for morning showers and thunderstorms across
mainly se Ga. Convection will advance and increase into ne Fl
during the day as upper trough axis shifts se across the area. SPC
day 2 convective outlook has a marginal risk across se Ga/ne Fl.
Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s tonight with high
temperatures Thursday not quite as hot due to increased clouds and
precip expected.
Thu night...A mid level short wave trough will push southward across
NE Fl then begin to stall across north central Florida. Scattered
evening showers and tstorms across NE Fl will decrease in coverage
through the night with the loss of diurnal heating but a chance of
showers and isolated tstorms will continue through the night across
NE Fl given moist SW flow off of the Gulf and dynamical support
near the lingering mid level trough. Drier mid level NW flow over
SE Ga on the back side of the short wave trough axis will bring
mostly dry conditions after midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies overnight with mild and muggy temperatures in the 70s.
Fri & Fri night...Morning showers and storms expected across NE Fl
due to lingering short wave trough energy with drier conditions
across SE Ga where mid level NVA is expected. A lower chance of
afternoon/evening convection expected across NE Fl as NVA shifts
southward over the area with late afternoon/evening chances of
precipitation expectd to increase across SE Ga ahead of a surface
front pivoting southward down the the SE Atlantic seaboard as a
surface low deepens offshore of the Carolinas. Both the GFS and
NAM12 advertised MCS like structure as the pre-frontal rainfall
edges southward Fri night and will continue to advertise a high
chance of noctural rainfall Fri night with mild temperatues due
to cloudy skies. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
especially late Fri aftn into Fri night as upper level shear
increases over the area. The main convective hazard will be
damaging winds. With subsidence across SE Ga much of the morning
and early afternoon...hot temps in the mid to upper 90s.
Sat & Sat night...Surface trough will push southward across SE Ga
early Sat morning and NE Fl into Sat afternoon with showers and
storms along and ahead of the boundary. A cooler and more stable
onshore flow will trail the front into Saturday afternoon as
surface high pressure noses southward across Ga from the mid-
Atlantic region and low pressure looms offshore of the SE Atlantic
coast. Rain chances increase Sat afternoon into Sat night as
breezy onshore flow develops which will create a local Nor`Easter
scenario. Waves of showers with trainnig bands of heavy rainfall
are expected with isolated tstorm potential due to limitied
instability. Cloudy skies will blanket much of the area by Sat
afternoon with much cooler daytime highs in the low/mid 80s. Mild
overnight low temps Sat night with lower 70s coast to upper 60s
farther inland.
&&
.Long term...Sun through Tue...
Sun & Mon...Cool and breezy onshore flow with waves of coastal
showers and isolated tstorms between high pressure ridge across
the Carolinas and low pressure across south Florida. Below normal
high temperatures in the 80s with mild low temps in the upper 60s
inland/70s coast.
Tue & Wed...A return to more diurnally driving convection as surface
ridge axis shifts southward and extends across the local area
with weak mid/upper level trough axis across the deep south. At
this time indicated a prevailing low level ESE flow with the east
coast sea breeze pushing inland into the afternoon/evening toward
the I-75 corridor with an expansion of diurnally enhanced
showers/tstorms. Temperatures begin to moderate back toward climo
values.
&&
.AVIATION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over
mainly interior se GA and then move ne this afternoon/evening.
Due to low areal coverage and confidence will keep VCTS at TAF
sites for now. An upgrade to tempo may be needed later particulary
at SSI. Expect shower acvitity to decrease around 00Z. Winds will
be from the WSW at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...Surface ridge to the south will keep a southwest flow
pattern over the local waters into Friday night. A cold front
will drop south of the area Friday night with a developing onshore
flow event this weekend as strong high pressure builds down the
east coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution to marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible mainly offshore from late tonight
through Friday...with Advisory conditions more likely Friday night
through the weekend.
Rip Currents: Low risk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 90 75 97 / 40 50 30 40
SSI 76 89 77 93 / 30 40 40 30
JAX 76 91 77 96 / 20 40 40 30
SGJ 75 90 76 92 / 20 40 40 30
GNV 75 89 75 92 / 20 30 40 60
OCF 75 90 75 90 / 20 30 40 60
&&
.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Zibura/Enyedi/Shuler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
229 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.Short term...Tonight and Thursday...Scattered convection moving
across interior se Georgia aided by upper impulse to the west.
Airmass not as unstable as yesterday so storm strength not as
strong. Still may get isolated strong storm this afternoon that
could produce strong gusty winds. An increased sw flow has
prevented the east coast seabreeze formation so expect lesser
activity over ne Fl this evening. Convection may linger or return
to se Ga later tonight/early Thursday night as upper trough
amplifies into the southeast. Trough axis will approach south Ga
with the potential for morning showers and thunderstorms across
mainly se Ga. Convection will advance and increase into ne Fl
during the day as upper trough axis shifts se across the area. SPC
day 2 convective outlook has a marginal risk across se Ga/ne Fl.
Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s tonight with high
temperatures Thursday not quite as hot due to increased clouds and
precip expected.
Thu night...A mid level short wave trough will push southward across
NE Fl then begin to stall across north central Florida. Scattered
evening showers and tstorms across NE Fl will decrease in coverage
through the night with the loss of diurnal heating but a chance of
showers and isolated tstorms will continue through the night across
NE Fl given moist SW flow off of the Gulf and dynamical support
near the lingering mid level trough. Drier mid level NW flow over
SE Ga on the back side of the short wave trough axis will bring
mostly dry conditions after midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies overnight with mild and muggy temperatures in the 70s.
Fri & Fri night...Morning showers and storms expected across NE Fl
due to lingering short wave trough energy with drier conditions
across SE Ga where mid level NVA is expected. A lower chance of
afternoon/evening convection expected across NE Fl as NVA shifts
southward over the area with late afternoon/evening chances of
precipitation expectd to increase across SE Ga ahead of a surface
front pivoting southward down the the SE Atlantic seaboard as a
surface low deepens offshore of the Carolinas. Both the GFS and
NAM12 advertised MCS like structure as the pre-frontal rainfall
edges southward Fri night and will continue to advertise a high
chance of noctural rainfall Fri night with mild temperatues due
to cloudy skies. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
especially late Fri aftn into Fri night as upper level shear
increases over the area. The main convective hazard will be
damaging winds. With subsidence across SE Ga much of the morning
and early afternoon...hot temps in the mid to upper 90s.
Sat & Sat night...Surface trough will push southward across SE Ga
early Sat morning and NE Fl into Sat afternoon with showers and
storms along and ahead of the boundary. A cooler and more stable
onshore flow will trail the front into Saturday afternoon as
surface high pressure noses southward across Ga from the mid-
Atlantic region and low pressure looms offshore of the SE Atlantic
coast. Rain chances increase Sat afternoon into Sat night as
breezy onshore flow develops which will create a local Nor`Easter
scenario. Waves of showers with trainnig bands of heavy rainfall
are expected with isolated tstorm potential due to limitied
instability. Cloudy skies will blanket much of the area by Sat
afternoon with much cooler daytime highs in the low/mid 80s. Mild
overnight low temps Sat night with lower 70s coast to upper 60s
farther inland.
&&
.Long term...Sun through Tue...
Sun & Mon...Cool and breezy onshore flow with waves of coastal
showers and isolated tstorms between high pressure ridge across
the Carolinas and low pressure across south Florida. Below normal
high temperatures in the 80s with mild low temps in the upper 60s
inland/70s coast.
Tue & Wed...A return to more diurnally driving convection as surface
ridge axis shifts southward and extends across the local area
with weak mid/upper level trough axis across the deep south. At
this time indicated a prevailing low level ESE flow with the east
coast sea breeze pushing inland into the afternoon/evening toward
the I-75 corridor with an expansion of diurnally enhanced
showers/tstorms. Temperatures begin to moderate back toward climo
values.
&&
.AVIATION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over
mainly interior se GA and then move ne this afternoon/evening.
Due to low areal coverage and confidence will keep VCTS at TAF
sites for now. An upgrade to tempo may be needed later particulary
at SSI. Expect shower acvitity to decrease around 00Z. Winds will
be from the WSW at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...Surface ridge to the south will keep a southwest flow
pattern over the local waters into Friday night. A cold front
will drop south of the area Friday night with a developing onshore
flow event this weekend as strong high pressure builds down the
east coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution to marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible mainly offshore from late tonight
through Friday...with Advisory conditions more likely Friday night
through the weekend.
Rip Currents: Low risk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 90 75 97 / 40 50 30 40
SSI 76 89 77 93 / 30 40 40 30
JAX 76 91 77 96 / 20 40 40 30
SGJ 75 90 76 92 / 20 40 40 30
GNV 75 89 75 92 / 20 30 40 60
OCF 75 90 75 90 / 20 30 40 60
&&
.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Zibura/Enyedi/Shuler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
204 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will remain generally west to southwest through the TAF
period. Some coastal showers will again be possible in the morning
hours Thursday but they should be isolated in nature and don`t
have mentioned in the forecast at this time.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 89 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 91 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 91 76 90 / 20 40 10 40
SRQ 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
BKV 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 30 40
SPG 79 89 79 88 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
204 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will remain generally west to southwest through the TAF
period. Some coastal showers will again be possible in the morning
hours Thursday but they should be isolated in nature and don`t
have mentioned in the forecast at this time.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 89 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 91 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 91 76 90 / 20 40 10 40
SRQ 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 20 40
BKV 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 30 40
SPG 79 89 79 88 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
152 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms so far this afternoon have
been focused near the southeast terminals, with a few surface
gusts of 25 to 35 knots reported near the strongest cells.
Activity may spread a bit farther northward late this afternoon
but will diminish around sunset with VFR conditions and light
winds prevailing overnight. Scattered showers are expected to
again develop midday Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 78 92 76 91 / 30 60 20 40
Fort Lauderdale 78 92 77 92 / 40 60 20 40
Miami 77 92 78 91 / 40 60 20 40
Naples 78 89 79 87 / 20 50 20 40
&&
.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing
across the area today. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is possible
tonight, but still uncertain as to the timing and southern extent.
VFR is expected outside of the convection. Potential for MVFR
vsbys and cigs affecting ABY and VLD Thursday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [1111 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Weak upper level troughing is in place just west of the area
currently with a very moist airmass over the southeast states. The
satellite derived PWAT values are near or above 2 inches across most
of the area with values as high as 2.4 inches across southern MS.
This is about 130-160% of normal for this time of year, which is a
typically moist time of year anyway. This airmass combined with weak
upper troughing is expected to yield a fairly high coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across the area northwest half of the area
today. Isolated to scattered coverage is expected across the
southeast half. Localized very heavy rainfall rates are expected
with today`s activity with the tropical airmass in place. Increased
cloud cover is expected to keep high temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, although it will still feel quite muggy with
high dewpoints.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Scattered to widespread convection is expected to continue through
the overnight hours tonight due to the presence of an upper trough
accompanied by deep layer moisture and ample upper level energy. The
upper trough will further deepen down the Atlantic seaboard through
the remainder of the work week. As it does, the deep moisture will
be nudged south a bit with some drier air making it into our
northwest zones Thursday/Thursday night. PoPs will be tapered 30%
northwest to 40-50% elsewhere for Thursday. On Friday, a cold
front will approach from the north but locally deep layer moisture
will be lacking. For now, PoPs on Friday will be in the chance
category (30-40%) across the CWA. Daytime temperatures will be
near seasonal levels on Thursday but back into the mid to upper
90s Friday mainly due to a decrease in cloud cover and convection.
With expected dew points in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices are
forecast to range from 105-110 degrees across the Tri-state
region Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Global models show the cold front entering the region Friday night
with the boundary slipping to our south during the day on
Saturday. Beyond that the latest GFS and Euro sharply diverge on
their solutions. The GFS shows a surface low developing off the
north Florida coast on Sunday which slowly moves westward into SW
GA by 12z Tuesday before dissipating. This is followed by a
deepening trough over the eastern CONUS which would maintain near
to above seasonal PoPs through the period. The 00z EURO shows a
much different scenario with a drier airmass and deep layer
ridging in place. At this point, the EURO seems more plausible so
will accept the drier solution with PoPs below seasonal levels.
Temps will be slightly below climo through Monday and then at or
just above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.
.MARINE...
Moderate southwest to west winds will persist until Saturday when
they veer to become northerly in the wake of a cold front. Seas
will generally be 2 to 4 feet during that time. The wind
direction will likely shift to easterly by late Saturday possibly
reaching cautionary levels that may continue through the
remainder of the weekend.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist airmass will preclude any fire weather concerns for the next
several days.
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall from scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the next several days could lead to localized flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, especially in urban locations.
However, significant rises on the local river system are not
anticipated from this activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 76 90 75 97 75 / 50 60 30 40 50
Panama City 79 86 79 90 78 / 50 40 20 40 40
Dothan 75 93 75 98 74 / 60 40 20 40 30
Albany 75 93 74 97 72 / 60 40 20 40 30
Valdosta 75 89 74 97 73 / 50 60 30 40 50
Cross City 76 88 76 94 75 / 30 50 30 40 50
Apalachicola 79 87 78 89 78 / 40 40 20 40 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Fieux/Bennett
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1111 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
The Tallahassee 12Z upper air sounding indicates an unusually moist
atmospheric profile, with a value of 1.96 inches. This is around the
90th percentile for today. Radar is already indicating the
development of scattered thunderstorms across the area. Have nudged
max temps lower, particularly in the western part of the CWA to
reflect the earlier arrival of rainfall and thicker cloud cover.
With the increase in deep layer moisture today, heavy rain is
possible with any storms that develop. Luckily, these storms appear
to be moving along, but will watch for any storm training which
could result in localized flooding concerns.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [727 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Weak upper level troughing is in place just west of the area
currently with a very moist airmass over the southeast states. The
satellite derived PWAT values are near or above 2 inches across most
of the area with values as high as 2.4 inches across southern MS.
This is about 130-160% of normal for this time of year, which is a
typically moist time of year anyway. This airmass combined with weak
upper troughing is expected to yield a fairly high coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across the area northwest half of the area
today. Isolated to scattered coverage is expected across the
southeast half. Localized very heavy rainfall rates are expected
with today`s activity with the tropical airmass in place. Increased
cloud cover is expected to keep high temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, although it will still feel quite muggy with
high dewpoints.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Scattered to widespread convection is expected to continue through
the overnight hours tonight due to the presence of an upper trough
accompanied by deep layer moisture and ample upper level energy. The
upper trough will further deepen down the Atlantic seaboard through
the remainder of the work week. As it does, the deep moisture will
be nudged south a bit with some drier air making it into our
northwest zones Thursday/Thursday night. PoPs will be tapered 30%
northwest to 40-50% elsewhere for Thursday. On Friday, a cold
front will approach from the north but locally deep layer moisture
will be lacking. For now, PoPs on Friday will be in the chance
category (30-40%) across the CWA. Daytime temperatures will be
near seasonal levels on Thursday but back into the mid to upper
90s Friday mainly due to a decrease in cloud cover and convection.
With expected dew points in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices are
forecast to range from 105-110 degrees across the Tri-state
region Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Global models show the cold front entering the region Friday night
with the boundary slipping to our south during the day on
Saturday. Beyond that the latest GFS and Euro sharply diverge on
their solutions. The GFS shows a surface low developing off the
north Florida coast on Sunday which slowly moves westward into SW
GA by 12z Tuesday before dissipating. This is followed by a
deepening trough over the eastern CONUS which would maintain near
to above seasonal PoPs through the period. The 00z EURO shows a
much different scenario with a drier airmass and deep layer
ridging in place. At this point, the EURO seems more plausible so
will accept the drier solution with PoPs below seasonal levels.
Temps will be slightly below climo through Monday and then at or
just above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the area through the day with the best chances at
ECP, DHN, and ABY. VFR is expected outside of the convection.
.MARINE...
Moderate southwest to west winds will persist until Saturday when
they veer to become northerly in the wake of a cold front. Seas
will generally be 2 to 4 feet during that time. The wind
direction will likely shift to easterly by late Saturday possibly
reaching cautionary levels that may continue through the
remainder of the weekend.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist airmass will preclude any fire weather concerns for the next
several days.
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall from scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the next several days could lead to localized flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, especially in urban locations.
However, significant rises on the local river system are not
anticipated from this activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 76 90 75 97 / 50 50 60 30 40
Panama City 85 79 86 79 90 / 60 50 40 20 40
Dothan 86 75 93 75 98 / 90 60 40 20 40
Albany 90 75 93 74 97 / 70 60 40 20 40
Valdosta 91 75 89 74 97 / 50 50 60 30 40
Cross City 91 76 88 76 94 / 20 30 50 30 40
Apalachicola 87 79 87 78 89 / 50 40 40 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Lamers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1043 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
The previous forecast appears to be on track. The 12Z Miami
sounding was still quite dry, but this is deceptiveas the 12Z
Nassau sounding sampled an environment with precipitable water
near 2.0 inches. Water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis indicate
this deeper moisture now moving into South Florida from the
southeast as the northern periphery of a tropical wave skirts the
region. Visible satellite and radar indicate showers beginning to
develop across Mainland Monroe and southern Miami-Dade Counties,
and also the southern offshore Atlantic waters. Expect an upward
trend in shower and thunderstorm development will continue the
next few hours across the southeastern half of the area with
activity spreading west and northwest later in the afternoon.
Modified 12Z Miami sounding indicates the potential for gusty
winds with the strongest storms. A brief period of heavy rainfall
and lightning will be the other primary hazards.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016/
AVIATION...
An increase in moisture today compared to yesterday will allow
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop along the
sea breeze boundary vicinity of east coast terminals starting 16Z
to 18Z today before a return to dry conditions around sunset. VFR
conditions to prevail outside of any heavier showers. Surface winds
mostly near or below 10 knots, except briefly stronger and gusty
near thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Some drier air continues to linger across the northern Bahamas and
into the eastern portions of the South Florida peninsula. But
recent IR and water vapor imagery indicate some moisture and
cloudiness moving westward across the Straits and the central
Bahamas as a tropical wave near Jamaica continues to track
westward and the northern periphery of the moisture and
cloudiness is approaching the region.
Forecast for today and tonight...the global model guidance is in
line with recent satellite imagery trends indicating that deeper
moisture will continue to track westward as the tropical wave
tracks westward and moisture will enter the region as the day
progresses with forecast pwat`s across Miami Dade rising to about
1.7 to 1.9 inches later today. The deepest moisture and associated
cloudiness will likely enter the Atlantic waters east of Biscayne
Bay later today with an increasing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters as it tracks westward.
The regional synoptic winds are expected to be south to south
southwest today. This will likely keep the Atlantic coast sea
breeze from penetrating too far inland. In addition low level
winds are forecast to be southwest. These conditions will favor
chances of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern peninsula
this afternoon and early evening...especially as the moisture
increases later today. For tonight...the tropical wave will
continue to track westward with the main energy of the wave
remaining south of Cuba but it will continue to be a source of
additional deep moisture and the northern periphery could track
across the region tonight and allow for some showers and
thunderstorms over night into Thursday...especially for the local
Gulf and Atlantic waters and the southern peninsula.
Rip Current Potential...Light regional winds and nearly calm seas
will result in little chance of rip currents across the Gulf and
Atlantic beaches today. Chances for rip currents across the Gulf
beaches will increase some late week into the weekend with the
forecast of regional southwesterly to westerly winds.
Forecast for Thursday and Friday...On Thursday there is broad
agreement in the global models that a broad surface low could
develop off the mid-Atlantic to North Carolina coast on Thursday.
This would establish southwesterly surface winds across the
region and a plume of deep tropical moisture across the Yucatan
Peninsula extending northeast across the Straits and South
Florida...with regional pwat`s around two inches possible. In
addition a weak mid-level trough is forecast to build into the
northeast Gulf. There is broad model agreement suggesting that a
secondary surface low could form across the Carolinas on Friday
with southwesterly surface flow and the plume of deep tropical
moisture continuing on Friday. These synoptic conditions will
maintain chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
region...including the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Latest guidance
indicates the greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms across
the eastern peninsula and Atlantic metro areas on Thursday
afternoon.
Forecast for the upcoming weekend...the global model consensus
for the early part of the weekend indicates southwesterly winds
continuing with the possibility of a frontal boundary across the
southeast or north FLorida. This scenario maintains moisture
across the region with diurnal scattered showers/thunderstorms
forecast over the weekend. As usual need to stress the
uncertainties in the extended forecast.
MARINE...
Varying winds from southeasterly to southwesterly winds are
expected across the regional waters today...generally around 10
knots or less. Tonight into Thursday winds are forecast to
transition to southwesterly then forecast to remain southwesterly
to westerly into the early part of the upcoming weekend. However
there remains some uncertainty in the forecast...especially in the
extended portion.
Gulf and Atlantic seas are forecast to be 2 feet or less through
Thursday then a gradual increase on Friday and into Saturday but
generally 3 feet or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 92 78 92 76 / 30 30 60 20
Fort Lauderdale 92 78 92 77 / 40 40 60 20
Miami 92 77 92 78 / 50 40 60 20
Naples 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 50 20
&&
.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22/KS
LONG TERM....60/BD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels...(700-200 MB),Latest
available IR imagery as of 900 am overlaid with model streamline
analysis depicts the center of a deep and warm middle and upper
anticyclonic ridge oriented from near Savannah Georgia east
southeastwards into the Western Atlantic to near 25 N 70 W. Closer to
the Florida Keys, A middle and upper level area of low pressure is
spinning across the Western Florida Straits just south of the Lower
Keys.
At the surface and in the lower to middle levels...(Surface to 700
mb). Latest available marine and land surface observations and
analysis detail a tropical wave analyzed in the SW Caribbean Sea.
Locally, A weak pressure pattern remains at Keys latitude with broad
surface ridging split by the Keys archipelago. As such the 12Z
sounding illustrated a gentle south flow from the surface, backing to
east around 700 mb the gentle up to about 200 mb, with PWAT at 1.79
indicating a typically moist lower to mid troposphere.
.CURRENTLY...As of 900 am, skies are mostly sunny across the islands
and adjoining waters. Key West radar detects a few puny showers
dotting waters north and west of the Keys, but trends continue to
indicate dying activity. A few Brief moderate rain showers went over
the Upper Keys earlier this am. Temperatures across the islands are
already in the middle to upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s.
C-man stations along the reef are indicating South winds near 10
knots, except light and variable in Florida Bay and out near the Dry
Tortugas.
.REST OF TODAY...Weak surface ridging will remain bifurcated east
and west of the Keys island chain through this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings illustrate PWAT will remain around 1 and three
quarters thru the afternoon hours. The upper low and strong heating
over Cuba will generate thunderstorms along the Cordillera. These
storms should move north later this afternoon and then north into the
Straits this evening. Latest available forecast soundings maintain
decent moisture in the lower to middle levels, and given a southerly
storm motion around 10 knots tonight, some of these showers and
storms will swing boundaries northwards. As such we are carrying low
chance pops for the evening hours. As for this afternoon, an minor
update was performed to insert only dime pops for the afternoon hours
and start winds near 10 mph, reducing to 5 to 10 in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...No watches, warnings, advisories, or headlines. As always,
keep the NOAA weather radio on for summertime showers and
thunderstorms which should be increasing in coverage across the
Florida Straits this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals
this afternoon. Winds will be light out of the south, weakening
further and becoming variable to southeast.
&&
.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........Futterman
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......Chesser
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1003 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
Morning soundings indicate moisture levels have increased at the
Cape over the past 24 hours with deeper moisture to around 600 mbs
and a morning PWAT of 1.93 inches. 915 MHZ USAF wind profilers show
WSW low lvl winds to 10-15 knots in the lowest 4 kft which should
keep the sea breeze close to the coast north of the Cape with only
slow inland progress from the Cape south into late afternoon. Higher
resolution short range models have convection moving over from the
west coast breeze across northern areas into mid afternoon and
additional development near the east coast with the developing east
coast sea breeze into mid to late afternoon. Nudged POPs to near 50
pct inland from the coast across srn Volusia/nrn Brevard and
adjacent portions for ern Seminole/ern Orange and NE Osceola
counties where slightly higher coverage expected with late aftn low
level convergence. Isolated strong storms are possible in the late
afternoon and evening with locally heavy, gusty downburst winds,
lightning and frequent lightning. Highs will reach the lower to mid
90s with heat indices from 100 to 105.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA will move ENE toward nrn interior terminals by mid
afternoon with also development along the east coast sea breeze from
near the coast from KDAB-KFPR. Highest late afternoon/early evening
storm coverage should be in the KDED-KSFB-KMCO corridor east to the
coast from KDAB-KMLB. Decreasing shower/storm coverage aft 02z with
VFR conditions expected overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecast on track with offshore winds this morning becoming
south/southeast near the immediate coast by mid to late afternoon
with the development of the east coast breeze. seas 2 ft near shore
to around 3 ft offshore. Higher storm chances in the late afternoon
and evening along the immediate coast and near shore Atlantic
waters mainly for the nrn Brevard and Volusia areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 74 91 74 / 40 30 50 20
MCO 94 74 91 74 / 50 20 40 20
MLB 92 76 91 74 / 40 30 50 20
VRB 92 75 92 73 / 30 30 50 20
LEE 93 76 89 76 / 40 10 40 20
SFB 94 76 91 75 / 50 30 40 20
ORL 94 75 90 76 / 50 20 40 20
FPR 92 74 92 74 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Volkmer/Bragaw
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
904 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...A slight increase in the southwest flow will keep the east
coast seabreeze at the coast today with hot and humid conditions
again. Heat indices will reach near 105 this afternoon. An upper
level impulse along the upper Gulf coast will aid afternoon
convection over the Suwannee Valley and interior se GA along with
the inland moving west coast seabreeze. Convection may linger
tonight as upper troughing to the north amplifies into the se.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions this morning. VCTS at TAF sites after
18z as scattered afternoon storms develop and move ENE. Winds will
be from the sw around 10 knots...becoming se at SSI and SGJ by
late afternoon where the seabreeze will be pinned to the coast.
&&
.MARINE...Southwest winds up to 15 knots offshore...becoming se
near the coast this afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible over the waters by late
afternoon.
Rip Currents: Low risk today and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 75 90 75 / 60 60 40 20
SSI 91 78 90 77 / 40 50 40 20
JAX 95 77 89 76 / 40 50 40 30
SGJ 91 75 88 76 / 40 40 40 30
GNV 92 74 88 75 / 30 40 40 30
OCF 92 76 88 74 / 30 30 40 30
&&
.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Zibura/Shuler
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
859 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.UPDATE...
The area remains in a persistent onshore flow which will lead to
another warm, muggy day across the area. TPA saw a morning "low"
of 81 degrees so we`ve gotten off to a pretty warm start today.
There remains ample moisture in the column below 500mb as seen in
the 12Z KTBW RAOB. Above 500mb, the atmosphere dries out a bit and
this should to once again limit the coverage of showers/storms.
With the seabreeze already beginning to push inland, the coastal
regions will likely remain fairy dry again today aside from a few
showers that will pop up along the seabreeze over the next couple
of hours. The focus area today for showers/storms will once again
be in the interior and over towards the Space Coast. Most areas
will see highs in the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100-105
range. No major changes made to the forecast for the morning
update.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR generally expected to prevail this morning and into the
afternoon. Could see some brief BKN MVFR cigs at terminals as
clouds begin to develop but this should be short lived. Once again
most of the shower/storm activity should be across the interior
sections of the area.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 90 79 89 78 / 20 10 30 20
FMY 92 77 91 76 / 20 20 40 20
GIF 93 75 91 76 / 40 20 40 10
SRQ 89 78 88 78 / 20 10 30 20
BKV 91 74 89 75 / 20 10 30 30
SPG 90 79 89 79 / 20 10 30 20
&&
.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
UPPER AIR...Kryston
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
753 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION...
An increase in moisture today compared to yesterday will allow
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop along the
sea breeze boundary vicinity of east coast terminals starting 16Z
to 18Z today before a return to dry conditions around sunset. VFR
conditions to prevail outside of any heavier showers. Surface winds
mostly near or below 10 knots, except briefly stronger and gusty
near thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Some drier air continues to linger across the northern Bahamas and
into the eastern portions of the South Florida peninsula. But
recent IR and water vapor imagery indicate some moisture and
cloudiness moving westward across the Straits and the central
Bahamas as a tropical wave near Jamaica continues to track
westward and the northern periphery of the moisture and
cloudiness is approaching the region.
Forecast for today and tonight...the global model guidance is in
line with recent satellite imagery trends indicating that deeper
moisture will continue to track westward as the tropical wave
tracks westward and moisture will enter the region as the day
progresses with forecast pwat`s across Miami Dade rising to about
1.7 to 1.9 inches later today. The deepest moisture and associated
cloudiness will likely enter the Atlantic waters east of Biscayne
Bay later today with an increasing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters as it tracks westward.
The regional synoptic winds are expected to be south to south
southwest today. This will likely keep the Atlantic coast sea
breeze from penetrating too far inland. In addition low level
winds are forecast to be southwest. These conditions will favor
chances of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern peninsula
this afternoon and early evening...especially as the moisture
increases later today. For tonight...the tropical wave will
continue to track westward with the main energy of the wave
remaining south of Cuba but it will continue to be a source of
additional deep moisture and the northern periphery could track
across the region tonight and allow for some showers and
thunderstorms over night into Thursday...especially for the local
Gulf and Atlantic waters and the southern peninsula.
Rip Current Potential...Light regional winds and nearly calm seas
will result in little chance of rip currents across the Gulf and
Atlantic beaches today. Chances for rip currents across the Gulf
beaches will increase some late week into the weekend with the
forecast of regional southwesterly to westerly winds.
Forecast for Thursday and Friday...On Thursday there is broad
agreement in the global models that a broad surface low could
develop off the mid-Atlantic to North Carolina coast on Thursday.
This would establish southwesterly surface winds across the
region and a plume of deep tropical moisture across the Yucatan
Peninsula extending northeast across the Straits and South
Florida...with regional pwat`s around two inches possible. In
addition a weak mid-level trough is forecast to build into the
northeast Gulf. There is broad model agreement suggesting that a
secondary surface low could form across the Carolinas on Friday
with southwesterly surface flow and the plume of deep tropical
moisture continuing on Friday. These synoptic conditions will
maintain chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
region...including the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Latest guidance
indicates the greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms across
the eastern peninsula and Atlantic metro areas on Thursday
afternoon.
Forecast for the upcoming weekend...the global model consensus
for the early part of the weekend indicates southwesterly winds
continuing with the possibility of a frontal boundary across the
southeast or north FLorida. This scenario maintains moisture
across the region with diurnal scattered showers/thunderstorms
forecast over the weekend. As usual need to stress the
uncertainties in the extended forecast.
MARINE...
Varying winds from southeasterly to southwesterly winds are
expected across the regional waters today...generally around 10
knots or less. Tonight into Thursday winds are forecast to
transition to southwesterly then forecast to remain southwesterly
to westerly into the early part of the upcoming weekend. However
there remains some uncertainty in the forecast...especially in the
extended portion.
Gulf and Atlantic seas are forecast to be 2 feet or less through
Thursday then a gradual increase on Friday and into Saturday but
generally 3 feet or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 92 78 92 76 / 30 30 60 20
Fort Lauderdale 92 78 92 77 / 40 40 60 20
Miami 92 77 92 78 / 50 40 60 20
Naples 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 50 20
&&
.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...22/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
727 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the area through the day with the best chances at
ECP, DHN, and ABY. VFR is expected outside of the convection.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Weak upper level troughing is in place just west of the area
currently with a very moist airmass over the southeast states. The
satellite derived PWAT values are near or above 2 inches across most
of the area with values as high as 2.4 inches across southern MS.
This is about 130-160% of normal for this time of year, which is a
typically moist time of year anyway. This airmass combined with weak
upper troughing is expected to yield a fairly high coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across the area northwest half of the area
today. Isolated to scattered coverage is expected across the
southeast half. Localized very heavy rainfall rates are expected
with today`s activity with the tropical airmass in place. Increased
cloud cover is expected to keep high temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, although it will still feel quite muggy with
high dewpoints.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Scattered to widespread convection is expected to continue through
the overnight hours tonight due to the presence of an upper trough
accompanied by deep layer moisture and ample upper level energy. The
upper trough will further deepen down the Atlantic seaboard through
the remainder of the work week. As it does, the deep moisture will
be nudged south a bit with some drier air making it into our
northwest zones Thursday/Thursday night. PoPs will be tapered 30%
northwest to 40-50% elsewhere for Thursday. On Friday, a cold
front will approach from the north but locally deep layer moisture
will be lacking. For now, PoPs on Friday will be in the chance
category (30-40%) across the CWA. Daytime temperatures will be
near seasonal levels on Thursday but back into the mid to upper
90s Friday mainly due to a decrease in cloud cover and convection.
With expected dew points in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices are
forecast to range from 105-110 degrees across the Tri-state
region Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Global models show the cold front entering the region Friday night
with the boundary slipping to our south during the day on
Saturday. Beyond that the latest GFS and Euro sharply diverge on
their solutions. The GFS shows a surface low developing off the
north Florida coast on Sunday which slowly moves westward into SW
GA by 12z Tuesday before dissipating. This is followed by a
deepening trough over the eastern CONUS which would maintain near
to above seasonal PoPs through the period. The 00z EURO shows a
much different scenario with a drier airmass and deep layer
ridging in place. At this point, the EURO seems more plausible so
will accept the drier solution with PoPs below seasonal levels.
Temps will be slightly below climo through Monday and then at or
just above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.
.MARINE...
Moderate southwest to west winds will persist until Saturday when
they veer to become northerly in the wake of a cold front. Seas
will generally be 2 to 4 feet during that time. The wind
direction will likely shift to easterly by late Saturday possibly
reaching cautionary levels that may continue through the
remainder of the weekend.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist airmass will preclude any fire weather concerns for the next
several days.
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall from scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the next several days could lead to localized flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, especially in urban locations.
However, significant rises on the local river system are not
anticipated from this activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 76 90 75 97 / 40 50 60 30 40
Panama City 85 79 86 79 90 / 70 50 40 20 40
Dothan 88 75 93 75 98 / 70 60 40 20 40
Albany 91 75 93 74 97 / 60 60 40 20 40
Valdosta 92 75 89 74 97 / 50 50 60 30 40
Cross City 91 76 88 76 94 / 10 30 50 30 40
Apalachicola 88 79 87 78 89 / 30 40 40 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Lamers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
504 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Changes to Forecast -- Rain chances were reduced slightly Thursday
night through Friday night, and increased slightly Monday through
Tuesday. Also, some minor adjustments were made to winds, wave
heights, qpf, sky cover, and temperature elements all periods.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Current Doppler radar scans are
void of precipitation echoes across the service area as a suppressed
convective regime persists. A deep layer mean anticyclone centered
near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands has built slowly westward,
as expected, and a significant low-level trade-wind surge has
developed along its western flank over the Caribbean. A weak, fast-
moving tropical wave was analyzed ahead of this surge over the
western Caribbean as well. A more robust and organized surface
ridge has built westward over the area, with a gentle southerly
breeze prevailing at most stations. The breeze has kept air
temperatures up in the lower 80s for most of the night, while
dewpoint temperatures remain steady in the mid 70s.
Prognostic Overview -- The tropical anticyclone will build farther
westward for about another 12-18 hours, before further progress is
halted by lowering geopotential heights along the Gulf Coast. As
such, the moisture-rich synoptic-scale convergence zone presently
between the Bahamas and the northwestern Caribbean should make
transit northwestward across western Cuba, the Straits and the
Florida Keys, thereby enhancing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Therefore, we have maintained slightly elevated
rain chances for tonight and Thursday. By thursday night, the
drier air (of Saharan origin) should move in quickly behind the
departing moisture surge, with a fairly suppressed convective
regime prevailing through most of Friday. The low-level ridge
then likely will weaken and move southward again as a large-scale
trough of midlatitude origin impinges on the Gulf basin. A few
days of southwesterly breezes are likely before a ridge finally
establishes north of the Keys by Sunday, resulting in a return
of east breezes and near climatological rain and thunder chances.
&&
.MARINE...
No watches, warnings, advisories, or headlines. A high pressure
ridge will remain near the Florida Keys today, then move southward
tonight and Thursday. Gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes
will develop across Florida Keys coastal waters Thursday, and
persist through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals today.
Surface winds will be generally from the south up to around 8 knots
in the morning, turning light and variable in the afternoon.
&&
.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire..........Kasper
Aviation/Nowcasts/Climate...KN
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
439 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Some drier air continues to linger across the northern Bahamas and
into the eastern portions of the South Florida peninsula. But
recent IR and water vapor imagery indicate some moisture and
cloudiness moving westward across the Straits and the central
Bahamas as a tropical wave near Jamaica continues to track
westward and the northern periphery of the moisture and
cloudiness is approaching the region.
Forecast for today and tonight...the global model guidance is in
line with recent satellite imagery trends indicating that deeper
moisture will continue to track westward as the tropical wave
tracks westward and moisture will enter the region as the day
progresses with forecast pwat`s across Miami Dade rising to about
1.7 to 1.9 inches later today. The deepest moisture and associated
cloudiness will likely enter the Atlantic waters east of Biscayne
Bay later today with an increasing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters as it tracks westward.
The regional synoptic winds are expected to be south to south
southwest today. This will likely keep the Atlantic coast sea
breeze from penetrating too far inland. In addition low level
winds are forecast to be southwest. These conditions will favor
chances of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern peninsula
this afternoon and early evening...especially as the moisture
increases later today. For tonight...the tropical wave will
continue to track westward with the main energy of the wave
remaining south of Cuba but it will continue to be a source of
additional deep moisture and the northern periphery could track
across the region tonight and allow for some showers and
thunderstorms over night into Thursday...especially for the local
Gulf and Atlantic waters and the southern peninsula.
Rip Current Potential...Light regional winds and nearly calm seas
will result in little chance of rip currents across the Gulf and
Atlantic beaches today. Chances for rip currents across the Gulf
beaches will increase some late week into the weekend with the
forecast of regional southwesterly to westerly winds.
Forecast for Thursday and Friday...On Thursday there is broad
agreement in the global models that a broad surface low could
develop off the mid-Atlantic to North Carolina coast on Thursday.
This would establish southwesterly surface winds across the
region and a plume of deep tropical moisture across the Yucatan
Peninsula extending northeast across the Straits and South
Florida...with regional pwat`s around two inches possible. In
addition a weak mid-level trough is forecast to build into the
northeast Gulf. There is broad model agreement suggesting that a
secondary surface low could form across the Carolinas on Friday
with southwesterly surface flow and the plume of deep tropical
moisture continuing on Friday. These synoptic conditions will
maintain chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
region...including the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Latest guidance
indicates the greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms across
the eastern peninsula and Atlantic metro areas on Thursday
afternoon.
Forecast for the upcoming weekend...the global model consensus
for the early part of the weekend indicates southwesterly winds
continuing with the possibility of a frontal boundary across the
southeast or north FLorida. This scenario maintains moisture
across the region with diurnal scattered showers/thunderstorms
forecast over the weekend. As usual need to stress the
uncertainties in the extended forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Varying winds from southeasterly to southwesterly winds are
expected across the regional waters today...generally around 10
knots or less. Tonight into Thursday winds are forecast to
transition to southwesterly then forecast to remain southwesterly
to westerly into the early part of the upcoming weekend. However
there remains some uncertainty in the forecast...especially in the
extended portion.
Gulf and Atlantic seas are forecast to be 2 feet or less through
Thursday then a gradual increase on Friday and into Saturday but
generally 3 feet or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 92 78 92 76 / 30 30 60 20
Fort Lauderdale 92 78 92 77 / 40 40 60 20
Miami 92 77 92 78 / 50 40 60 20
Naples 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 50 20
&&
.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
410 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM... Today...the region will be on the western periphery of
the Bermuda High with a weak surface trough extending along the
Pediment. This will maintain a synoptic southwest flow which will
pin the east coast sea breeze front along the Atlantic coast. This
is also a hot pattern with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
all the way to the beaches. Heat Index values will be flirting with
local Heat Advisory guidelines both today and tomorrow with Heat
Indexes between 102 and 107 both days, especially near the Altamaha
River in south Georgia.
An upper level impulse moving along the upper Gulf coast will fire
convection over the Big Bend and the HRRR is suggesting it will send
an outflow boundary down I-10 toward the Suwannee Valley this
afternoon. Scattered convection will fire along the east coast sea
breeze about 2 to 5 p.m. With surface based capes in the 2,000-3,000
J/kg range tomorrow afternoon expect a few strong to severe
thunderstorms to pop along the sea breeze from Cumberland Island
southward.
Tonight...Convection is likely to continue into the evening hours
over land finally dropping off about 11 p.m. to 1 a.m. but likely to
continue into the early morning hours offshore. Minimum temps will
be quite warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s but in many areas it
will feel like the lower to mid 80s for most of the night.
Thursday...A short wave trough drops into the southeastern CONUS
with strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moving southeast out
of central Georgia and into the local area. It will be another hot
day with high temperatures from the upper 80s to lower 90s and Heat
Index values in the 100 to 105 range. Once again there will be some
Heat Index Values flirting with Heat Advisory values near Hazlehurst
and Douglas.
Thursday night...expecting isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the evening which should gradually weaken with loss
of day heating...drier air advecting in on west to northwest flow
aloft...and shortwave trough that shifts southeast of the area.
Still can`t rule out some isolated convection toward early morning
over NE FL where some deeper moisture prevails amidst favorable
dewpoint air off of the GOMEX. Prevailing southwest flow ahead of a
cold front over the Carolinas will maintain warm and muggy overnight
conditions with lows in the mid 70s.
Friday-Friday night...southwest to west flow continues with cold
front advancing southward from GA and SC during the day though
initial conditions look relatively dry air in the 10000-25000 ft
level. Hot conditions look probable in the mid to upper
90s...supported by 850 mb temps of close to 19/20C. The NAM and GFS
indicate low level convergence will increase as the front slides
southward late afternoon and evening which could fuel some strong to
possibly severe storms...with damaging winds the main threat. Model
progs may suggest an MCS by around 21Z Fri to about 06Z Saturday...
moving southward out of south central GA. The front will push
southward into the forecast area overnight Friday night...possibly
moving south of I-10 by 12Z Sat. Based on this regime...convection
is likely to be ongoing through the night...though weakening over SE
GA behind the front late.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...
Surface high pressure will build north of the area as the front
continues to drift southward over north central FL Saturday through
Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely Saturday in
our FL zones....with convection chances diminishing in SE GA. A
northeast flow will set in through the day over most areas due to
high pressure over the mid ATLC area. GFS continues to be an outlier
with development of surface low along the front Monday along the SE
U.S. coast and was discounted at this time. We continued with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over NE FL from Sunday through
Tuesday with lesser chances in SE GA...mainly afternoon hours. Some
morning convection is not out of the question given the NE-E flow
regime. Temps will be below normal over the weekend and early next
week only to rebound closer to normal by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Not much risk of significant fog during the
morning hours with some brief restrictions possible near sunrise at
Cecil and Gainesville. The East Coast sea breeze front will be
pinned along the Atlantic coast with convection firing along it
between 14 and 18 utc. Expect ceilings in the 4 to 5 kft range with
the convection but some storms may be strong with wind gusts in the
30 to 40 knot range. This will be especially true for the fields
from Jacksonville south to Saint Augustine. For now will keep the
storms in the vicinity and let the day shift add tempo groups as
appropriate later today.
&&
.MARINE...The Bermuda-Azores High Pressure System will begin to slide
to our south as a frontal system approaches from the north Thursday
and Friday. This will keep a synoptic southwest flow pattern over
the local waters into Friday night. The front will drop south of the
area on Friday night with a developing wedge / local northeaster for
the weekend. Between the ridge and the developing northeaster expect
Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions from
late Thursday into the weekend.
Rip Currents: Low risk today due to low surf conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 75 90 75 / 60 60 40 20
SSI 91 78 90 77 / 40 50 40 20
JAX 95 77 89 76 / 40 50 40 30
SGJ 91 75 88 76 / 40 40 40 30
GNV 92 74 88 75 / 30 40 40 30
OCF 92 76 88 74 / 30 30 40 30
&&
.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Sandrik/Shashy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
147 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread across
the area from west to east this morning. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon after a brief
break in precipitation later this morning. There is a slight risk
for severe storms today, with damaging winds and large hail the
primary threats. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Showers and scattered storms which affected much of the area have
just about departed NW Ohio counties as of 1445Z. Some low clouds
should linger over the next few hours across eastern portions of
the forecast area, but otherwise a good deal of insolation is
expected for most locations this afternoon. Main forecast question
still centers on severe weather potential this afternoon/early
evening. Should see fairly rapid destabilization in the 18Z-20Z
time period. Water vapor imagery depicts next upstream low
amplitude short wave across central Illinois this afternoon and
would suspect renewed convective development after 19Z as this
wave approaches. Max instability axis should focus across
southeast half/southeast third of forecast area with RAP short
term progs depicting 2000-2500 surface based CAPEs across these
locations. Deep layer shear should remain on the marginal side,
generally in the 20-30 knot range. Residual outflow boundary may
serve as initial convective focus this afternoon, and generally
expecting multicell to be the main convective mode with an
isolated wind/hail threat inline with latest SPC 1230Z Day 1
outlook. Updated zones will be sent shortly mainly to account for
lower PoPs over next few hours, but otherwise previous forecast
left as is.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
The main concern today and tonight will be with severe weather
potential.
Atmosphere is fairly juiced this morning with dewpoints already
creeping up into the upper 60s across the west/southwestern CWA.
PWATS per SPC Mesoanalysis are around 2 inches, with strong
moisture advection in progress. The warm front is lifting northward,
with showers and storms associated with isentropic ascent/shortwave
ejecting out of the low in our west and southwest. This
precipitation is expected to continue to drift north and eastward
across the CWA with the lifting warm front.
As far as severe weather concerns this morning-it appears fairly
marginal. Strong to severe wind gusts are certainly possible this
morning with ample moisture, decent instability, and marginal mid
level lapse rates of 5-6C across the west. Additionally, with
proximity to the warm front, models suggest 0-1 km bulk shear is
enhanced to around 15 to 20 kts. Given the history of damaging winds
with storms overnight and the above factors, I can`t rule severe
wx out despite the poor diurnal timing.
By the early afternoon the CWA will be firmly in the warm sector,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. The developing surface
low is over WI at 15Z and will continue to deepen as it drifts
eastward into SE lower Michigan by Thursday morning. Earlier model
runs had an area of strong subsidence in place over much of the CWA
through late afternoon, which was limiting concerns for severe
weather-and a few still hold with that idea. Some of the latest
higher resolution runs however show a more zonal 500mb flow over the
CWA through the afternoon-with weak disturbances moving through the
flow in the early/mid afternoon. Should we have a less amplified
flow aloft, there will be good potential for at least marginal
severe weather this afternoon. At the surface, models have a
prefrontal trough developing before 00z. Lingering outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection may also serve as another
potential trigger. Depending on how the early morning/afternoon
cloud cover and precip goes, sfc based instability could max out in
the 2-3K J/KG range by peak heating. Even without partial clearing,
instability will remain sufficiently high with the abundant moisture.
Furthermore, mid level lapse rates steepen in the afternoon with the
elevated mixed layer infiltrating the region-approaching 7C/KM by
21Z.
While instability and moisture are definitely in good shape, the
biggest limitation will be the lack of effective shear--which--even
with the more aggressive model solutions--appears to be only 10-20
knots by 00z. However-if we can get the prefrontal trough to develop
or perhaps get development off of any outflow boundaries from the
morning convection-I think we could see some severe weather. Models
disagree on afternoon storm development-but most suggest a SW to NE
oriented line of storms developing roughly between US 31 and I 69 at
some point after 18z, then progressing eastward through 6Z. SPC has
included these areas in a slight risk for their day one outlook-and
have a marginal risk elsewhere. This seems reasonable given the
factors in play for this afternoon. Overall-lower confidence in the
severe weather this afternoon given the conditional nature of things
and model differences.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Thursday the potent vort max/closed low and 60 knot 500mb jet dive
into the Great Lakes, then sink southeastward into West Virginia by
Thursday night. Thursday morning, the low pressure system is
vertically stacked and situated over northern Lower Michigan, with
the cold front situated across the eastern CWA. Synoptic forcing is
strongest over the thumb region at this time, but expands across
much of our cwa through 18Z before strong subsidence arrives. I
boosted pops to likely through early Thursday in the northeast, with
just a chance for thunderstorms. After 18z kept just chance pops in
as moisture begins to dwindle and subsidence from the approaching
high takes over.
The real concern for Thursday is hazardous marine conditions for
small crafts and swimmers. A decent pressure rise/fall couplet and
tightening gradient behind the exiting surface low will lead to
northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots through early afternoon,
becoming more northerly at 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon/evening.
Given the long fetch over Lake Michigan waves will build to 3 to 5
feet before noon, with wave periods lengthening to 5-6 seconds
thereafter. These factors coupled with the nearly shore-normal wave
angle of approach will lead to strong rip current development at
both Berrien and LaPorte County beaches. Strong structural and
longshore currents are also expected, especially once wave direction
becomes more northerly later in the day. Conditions will be life-
threatening to swimmers. As is always a concern on the Great Lakes
in June, nearshore water temperatures are only in the 50s. This can
make it even easier for a swimmer to become exhausted or cramp up.
For Friday and into the weekend, a broad upper level ridge extending
from the desert southwest expands over the Great lakes region,
bringing yet another dry period to the forecast area. With the
building ridge, sunny skies and rising temperatures will once again
return. Afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday will reach into the 80s,
with some locations getting close to 90 again Sunday afternoon.
The upper level ridge is forced southward by low pressure traversing
the canadian prairie by the start of next week, with our area under
relatively zonal flow aloft. The first shortwave/sfc cold front
crosses through late Monday afternoon/evening, bringing our first
chances for showers and storms. As the low deepens over
Ontario/Quebec and sinks southward Tuesday, the long wave trough
expands southward into the Great Lakes, bringing additional forcing
for precipitation to the area. With this set up, kept the reasonable
consensus chance/slight chance pops in the going forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conds xpcd nr term within broad warm sector sewd of
intense bowling ball dropping se out of ern MN. Insolation and wk
rtn flw alg wrn periphery of analyzed outflw bndry fm morning storms
noted acrs ne IL into nw IN and area of focused mass convergent
ongoing within subtle sfc based confluence zone extending ewd acrs
nrn IN. Suspect given fvrbl combo of mass flux within rapidly
destabilizing airmass that storms will initiate by 19Z in nw IN and
then grow upscale as they turn sewd within ll theta-e gradient. Thus
will keep KSBN terminal dry as aggregate lk breeze pushes in yet
mention vcts w/future amendment planned based on eventual dvlpmnt.
Otrws lt evening pd remains quite uncertain tied to swd extent of
convn dvlpg currently acrs wrn WI. Tail end of robust conv line may
yet pose probs invof of KSBN ltr but will defer in fvr of monitoring
upstream evolution.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
The mid-level ridge axis has become centered over the central U.S.,
with models showing this ridge strengthening and becoming more
amplified on Thursday. Light southerly winds were in place this
afternoon with the region wedged between surface low pressure to the
east and high pressure to the southeast. Observations showed a weak
convergence zone across central and south central Kansas, with
visible satellite showing some scattered cumulus developing along
this area of convergence. A moist airmass was in place over east
central to southeast Kansas with mesoscale analysis showing no cap
in place. These conditions combined with steep lapse rates was
resulting in decent instability of 2000-4000 J/kg of surface-based
CAPE in east central Kansas. Additionally, models are showing the
potential for a weak embedded wave to develop within the ridge axis
late this afternoon into early this evening. The weak forcing from
this wave along with the presence of some isentropic lift on the
310K-315K surfaces may potentially result in the development of some
very isolated storms across portions of central and east central
Kansas. Despite the weak shear values, any storms that develop may
have the potential to become strong with the hazards being hail and
wind but storms would likely be short-lived. Due to the low-
confidence in the potential let along location of any storm
development, have only slight chance PoPs in at this time, but will
need to closely monitor the short-term trends. Additional scattered
storms may develop across far eastern Kansas overnight from
additional isentropic lift and may potentially clip extreme
northeast Kansas early Thursday morning. Otherwise expect
predominantly dry conditions through Thursday across the outlook
area.
The main focus for the short-term shifts to the high heat concerns.
With afternoon heat indices in the low 100s this afternoon across
east central Kansas, a heat advisory remains in effect. This heat
advisory has been expanded to include the entire outlook area for
Thursday as high temperatures are expected to soar into the upper
90s to low 100s. Models show a moisture axis extending northward
across the area, with the higher dewpoints (low/mid 70s) focused
across northeast and east central Kansas. The combination of hot
temperatures and moist conditions will likely result in heat indices
surging into the mid/upper 100s Thursday afternoon. We will need to
monitor these temperature/dewpoint conditions for Thursday to
determine whether or not any locations will need to be upgraded to
an Excessive Heat Warning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
Thursday Night through Saturday...
The forecast challenge for the Friday and Saturday time period is
heat and to a lessor extent, thunderstorm chances. A large scale
warm upper ridge is forecast to extend from the southwest U.S.
northeast through the plains during this period. Thermal ridge
remains to our west with continued hot temperatures. Since the
overall airmass is not changing during this period, expect highs
to reach the mid/upper 90s Fri-Sun. Dewpoint temperatures are
tricky. The models suggest that the boundary layer moist axis will
extend across eastern KS Friday and Saturday. The 30mb AGL
dewpoints on the GFS/NAM show an area high dewpoints or moisture
pool, over eastern OK and southeast KS this afternoon. Even with
afternoon mixing, dewpoints were in the upper 70s in this area.
This moist axis is forecast to extend over eastern KS this
weekend. Therefore, forecast of afternoon dewpoints in the
lower/middle 70s seems reasonable with lower values to the west.
The other consideration will be thunderstorm chances. Although the
airmass will be unstable, lack of an identifiable trigger is a
problem. Forecast small POPS Friday night into Sat morning to
account for the small chance of an MCS in the area. Otherwise, will
forecast dry weather.
Given the prolonged nature of the heat event and being early in the
season, elected to go with a excessive heat watch over the weekend.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period.
Sustained southerly flow will allow hot and humid conditions to
continue through the weekend. With heat indicies approaching 105
degrees through Sunday, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued
through 00Z Monday. The only signal for precipitation in the
extended period arrives Monday into Tuesday as a weak cold front
progresses across the CWA. Scattered thunderstorm chances continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough
moves across portions of the central and northern plains. High
temperatures behind the cold front are expected to cool back into
the upper 80s and lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will be light, shifting from west to south this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
KSZ008>012-020>024-034.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Baerg/Johnson
AVIATION...Hennecke
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Excessive heat will linger through at least the weekend as a
mid/upper ridge builds over the Central Conus and an excessive heat
watch will be issued for much of the area from Friday through
Sunday. With limited advection of low level moisture...the PBL
should gradually begin to dry out...especially along and west of I-
35 so the higher heat indices are expected to remain along and east
of I-35 through much of the period. Otherwise...a persistence-type
forecast will be issued with little change anticipated from day-to-
day. Warm mid-lvl temperatures should preclude more widespread deep
moist convection although a rogue storm or two may develop through
the period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Hot and dry weather conditions will linger through the
beginning of the week. As we move toward the middle of the week we
may see a brief break from the heat and the GFS/ECMWF both break
down the mid/upper ridge driving a cold front south bisecting Kansas
Tue/Wed. Maintained low probabilities for storms and trended
temperatures down.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast valid
period. Upper ridge will remain in place over the area with
weak to modest southerly flow at the surface. Strong diurnal
heating may result in isolated showers/storms during the late
afternoon/evening with potential for downburst winds. However
due to the isolated nature will omit from the terminals.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 76 101 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 75 102 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 75 101 75 99 / 20 10 10 10
ElDorado 76 99 74 98 / 20 10 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 77 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 73 104 71 103 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 72 104 72 102 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 76 104 76 103 / 20 10 10 10
McPherson 74 103 75 100 / 20 10 10 10
Coffeyville 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 10
Iola 76 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ048>053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.
Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis shows ridging across
the Central US with a long fetch of drier ad advecting from Mexico
across the Southern Plains into the High Plains region. There is a
weak shortwave just east of our cwa highlighted by a weak ripple in
the 500mb height field. Several Surface troughs are in place within
the vicinity four CWA: one in southwest Nebraska, and a second
orientated near Hays. Near both of these features Cu fields have
develops, but the more impressive updrafts near the convergence zone
near a Hays also correlated with approximate location of upper level
shortwave trough.
This afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures (as expected) have warmed into
the 90`s to around 100F, and the moist air mass in the east
temporarily allowed a few locations to approach Heat Advisory
criteria. Td values have finally started to decrease with peak
mixing with higher Tds shifting east, so I held off on advisory as
trends should hold steady or decrease slightly on heat index values
with further drops in Td`s expected.
Other concern is the potential for a few thunderstorms in our far
eastern CWA. Position of trough axis/convergence zone and
decreasing TD trends in our CWA backs up latest HRRR/RAP trends
keeping initiation and movement away from our CWA. I kept
thunderstorm mention out this afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Another hot and dry day is expected. ECMWF is the only
model consistently showing thunderstorm potential in our east,
however (like today) this would be conditional on higher Td values
holding on in our east and considering the deep dry air mass on
soundings confidence is very low. Consensus and high resolution
guidance continues to favor dry in our CWA, and that`s the direction
I kept the forecast. High temperatures will be very similar to today
(if not slightly warmer) ranging from the upper 90s to around 100F
once again. Depending on Td axis we could once again see heat index
values come close to advisory criteria in our far east for a brief
period of time Thursday afternoon. Confidence on surface pattern is
low, and I decided to hold off on any advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
Dry weather is anticipated to continue through the weekend with
slight chances for thunderstorms entering the forecast early next
week. Temperatures remain warm due to upper level high pressure
throughout the period.
Thursday night, the upper ridge axis has pushed east of the area and
centers over the Plains. A weak surface low passes over the region.
On Friday, high pressure amplifies and moves over the desert
southwest. The dryline to the retreats towards the forecast area
Friday night bringing an increase in cloud cover generally east of
Highway 83. Expect precipitation to stay east of the region at this
time, but this will depend on how far the dryline regresses before
advancing again on Saturday.
The area of high pressure pushes further north Friday night into
Saturday, elongating over the southern half of the CONUS during the
weekend and bringing relatively zonal flow to the north. Conditions
become less favorable for storms this weekend with dry high pressure
over the High Plains.
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the region
early next week when a shortwave passes across Canada and a cold
front sags south towards the area.
The heat wave will continue through the weekend with highs in the
mid 90s to slightly above 100 degrees. Heat indices at or near 100
degrees are anticipated along and east of Highway 83 on Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures decrease into the upper 80s to upper 90s
early next week as the ridge breaks down and the cold front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2016
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. South winds should increase during the early TAF period
with gusts 15-20 kt possible through sunset. Then winds should
remain below 12kt through the remaining TAF period. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop over north central Kansas and south
central Nebraska. At this time this activity is not expected to
impact either terminal, though there is a slight chance at KMCK.
No thunderstorm mention was included due to the last of confidence.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR