Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/14/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1042 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today
along with morning drizzle. There is a slight chance of a
mountain thunderstorm today. The morning low cloud pattern will
slowly diminish through the week. A significant heat wave is
possible later next weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
Main forecast concerns for today will be the deep marine layer
clearing of the stratus (or lack thereof), along with the slight
chance of thunderstorms over the Ventura/SBA County mountains.
The slight chance of thunderstorms for the areas mentioned above
still looks warranted, with the NAM showing around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. The NAM doesn`t spit out any QPF in these areas, but the GFS
and HRRR hint at some convective precip late this afternoon. No
mention of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains in the
official forecast, but it`s not inconceivable for something to
develop there this afternoon, with the NAM showing decent
instability in this area as well. Thinking that the most likely
scenario will be some buildups, with possibly a shower over the
Ventura/SBA mountains, but likely no thunder. No changes were made
to the thunderstorm forecast.
Latest soundings indicated a marine layer close to 5000 ft deep.
With the deep marine layer and a strong eddy in place, updated the
sky forecast for today to keep the coast/valley areas from SBA to
LA mostly cloudy all day, although there could be a few break of
sun later this afternoon. There will also continue to be some
patchy drizzle, but any measurable amounts should remain mostly
confined to the foothills.
No other changes were made to the forecast. There will once again
be some local advisory level wind gusts today in the Antelope
Valley with strong onshore flow. After today, the main forecast
concern will continue to be the possibility of a major heat wave
next weekend into the following week. Also the possibility of a
weak sundowner Tuesday night.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
Still plenty of low clouds on Monday...but the marine inversion
will be weaker as the result of the low passage and this will
allow for better clearing everywhere xcp the beaches. There is a
slight chc that this is the wrong idea and that the marine layer
will be so deep and the upper inversion not strong enough to hold
the clouds together...if this comes true then there will be
reverse clearing which will bring sunny skies to the coasts and
mostly cloudy skies to the vlys.
Broad weakly cyclonic flow assoc with a cool pac NW upper low
moves over the state on Tuesday. This will result in a typical
marine layer pattern with the morning clouds and a sunny
afternoon.
Max temps will be well blo normal today and Monday due to the
onshore flow extensive clouds. Max temps will rebound slightly
Tuesday with the higher hgts and greater sunshine but they will
remain blo normal.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
Not much excitement for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper low
moves down the Oregon coast and tilts the flow over Srn Ca into a
more SW to NE orientation. There will not be much change in the
weather from Tuesday on both days. Look for typical night through
morning low clouds and fog pattern with max temps close to normal.
The real story of the xtnd fcst is the Friday through Sunday
portion. A large upper high will slowly press westward through the
period hgts will rise through the period from 582 DM on Friday to
594 DM on Sunday. The onshore flow will weaken and the marine
layer clouds will diminish. Max temps will rise each day. On
Friday max temps will be 1 to 3 degrees above normal and by
Sunday max temps will 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Next Monday
looks warmer still. This could unfold into a major heat event and
people should monitor the forecast for the latest developments.
&&
.AVIATION...12/18Z...
Mid/upper level trough of low pressure over the area will shift
east. Upper level moderate south winds will become moderate
northwest while mid level light south winds become light north-
northwest after 13/05z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over
the Ventura and Santa Barbara county mountains between
12/20-13/02z with tops 32kft and will move east 10kt or less. Weak
to moderate onshore pressure gradient through the period. Weak
capping marine inversion with organized cloud tops approximately
5kft this morning will continue weak with disorganized cloud tops
between 2-4kft Monday morning.
Marine layer at LAX at 1400Z is 4995 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 5850 feet with a temp of 10.7 degrees C.
KLAX...Chance cigs 035-040 through 13/09z then chance cigs 028
between 13/09-13/20z.
KBUR...Chance cigs 019 through 12/20z then chance cigs 035
12/20-13/04z. Chance cigs 024-030 after 13/04z.
virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...12/200 PM...
Small craft advisory conditions for winds are not expected through
Monday morning. Northwest winds are expected to develop and
increase Monday afternoon and there is a chance small craft
advisory conditions will exist at times from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas island Monday night through Friday. Northwest locally
generated seas will build to around 10 feet from Piedras Blancas
to San Nicolas island Tuesday and subside below 10 feet Wednesday
evening. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-220 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will build near shore through the week. Small
craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions area not expected but
extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are
likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sukup
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...Sweet
weather.gov/losangeles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today
along with morning drizzle. There is a slight chance of a
mountain thunderstorm today. The morning low cloud pattern will
slowly diminish through the week. A significant heat wave is
possible later next weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
Main forecast concerns for today will be the deep marine layer
clearing of the stratus (or lack thereof), along with the slight
chance of thunderstorms over the Ventura/SBA County mountains.
The slight chance of thunderstorms for the areas mentioned above
still looks warranted, with the NAM showing around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. The NAM doesn`t spit out any QPF in these areas, but the GFS
and HRRR hint at some convective precip late this afternoon. No
mention of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains in the
official forecast, but it`s not inconceivable for something to
develop there this afternoon, with the NAM showing decent
instability in this area as well. Thinking that the most likely
scenario will be some buildups, with possibly a shower over the
Ventura/SBA mountains, but likely no thunder. No changes were made
to the thunderstorm forecast.
Latest soundings indicated a marine layer close to 5000 ft deep.
With the deep marine layer and a strong eddy in place, updated the
sky forecast for today to keep the coast/valley areas from SBA to
LA mostly cloudy all day, although there could be a few break of
sun later this afternoon. There will also continue to be some
patchy drizzle, but any measurable amounts should remain mostly
confined to the foothills.
No other changes were made to the forecast. There will once again
be some local advisory level wind gusts today in the Antelope
Valley with strong onshore flow. After today, the main forecast
concern will continue to be the possibility of a major heat wave
next weekend into the following week. Also the possibility of a
weak sundowner Tuesday night.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
Still plenty of low clouds on Monday...but the marine inversion
will be weaker as the result of the low passage and this will
allow for better clearing everywhere xcp the beaches. There is a
slight chc that this is the wrong idea and that the marine layer
will be so deep and the upper inversion not strong enough to hold
the clouds together...if this comes true then there will be
reverse clearing which will bring sunny skies to the coasts and
mostly cloudy skies to the vlys.
Broad weakly cyclonic flow assoc with a cool pac NW upper low
moves over the state on Tuesday. This will result in a typical
marine layer pattern with the morning clouds and a sunny
afternoon.
Max temps will be well blo normal today and Monday due to the
onshore flow extensive clouds. Max temps will rebound slightly
Tuesday with the higher hgts and greater sunshine but they will
remain blo normal.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
Not much excitement for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper low
moves down the Oregon coast and tilts the flow over Srn Ca into a
more SW to NE orientation. There will not be much change in the
weather from Tuesday on both days. Look for typical night through
morning low clouds and fog pattern with max temps close to normal.
The real story of the xtnd fcst is the Friday through Sunday
portion. A large upper high will slowly press westward through the
period hgts will rise through the period from 582 DM on Friday to
594 DM on Sunday. The onshore flow will weaken and the marine
layer clouds will diminish. Max temps will rise each day. On
Friday max temps will be 1 to 3 degrees above normal and by
Sunday max temps will 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Next Monday
looks warmer still. This could unfold into a major heat event and
people should monitor the forecast for the latest developments.
&&
.AVIATION...12/12Z...
Marine layer at LAX at 11Z was 3500 feet deep. The top of the
marine inversion top was at 5400 feet with a temp of 11 degs C.
Skies were cloudy all the way to the coastal slopes. Cigs were
at high MVFR or VFR levels in most areas, with IFR conditions
confined to the foothills and slopes. Expect cigs to linger
through the day in most areas, although conds will rise to VFR
levels in most areas w of the mountains. Expect widespread high
MVFR cigs across the region tonight.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. There is a 20 percent
chance that MVFR cigs will linger through 20z. There is a 20
to 30 percent chance that cigs will be in the MVFR category
tonight/Mon morning. There is a 20 percent chance that se winds
will rise above 10 kt through 18z this morning.
KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 12z TAF. There is a 20
percent chance that MVFR cigs will linger through 21z.
&&
.MARINE...12/900 AM...
Small craft advisory conditions for winds are not expected through
Monday morning. Northwest winds are expected to develop and
increase Monday afternoon and there is a chance small craft
advisory conditions will exist at times from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas island Monday night through Friday. Northwest locally
generated seas will build to around 10 feet from Piedras Blancas
to San Nicolas island Tuesday and subside below 10 feet Wednesday
evening. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-220 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will build near shore through the week. Small
craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions area not expected but
extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are
likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sukup/ASR
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...Sweet
weather.gov/losangeles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
119 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
A cold front will move through the area tonight...bringing cooler
and less humid air for Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will return for much of the upcoming work week as the front
returns north and remains over the region. Lows tonight will range
from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. Highs on Sunday will be
in the upper 70s to middle 80s...with locally cooler conditions
near Lake Michigan.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
Loss of daytime heating and limited forcing has allowed all shower
development to cease across the area with the remainder of the
evening expected to be dry. Well defined cold front noted from
Saginaw Bay west to north of Muskegon with a noticeable drop in
temps and dewpoints (at least 10 degree drop on both elements) behind
the front. Forcing along the front has broke through the cap
immediately ahead of the front with a few showers from Mt Pleasant
MI ENE into Saginaw Bay. Much more capped atmosphere should be in
place further south to keep this activity from surviving too long.
Hi res models have generally backed off on any development with
the front...but given at least limited instability still in place
across the area and slightly increased shear with the
front...can`t rule out a stray shower or storm. Still not quite
worthy of a mention in the grids/zones with the evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
Outflow from overnight MCS to our north effectively squashed
convection this afternoon as we thought was a possibility. RUC point
soundings show high CAPE but little effective shear and rather large
temp/dew point depressions for convective initiation. Weak pre-
frontal trough and convectively enhanced short wave moved through
northeast area earlier today helping bring sfc winds around to west
northwest...further limiting low level convergence. On the plus
side, radar and satellite showing a couple boundaries that were
trying to convect at issuance. Northern boundary appears to be lake
enhanced and lies across northern Indiana. Second boundary located
over south central forecast area and is drifting east.
A couple cells have developed along these boundaries and currently
dropping quick heavy rainfall with some signs of lightning and
outflows. Given very unstable conditions these pulse storms expected
through early evening with heavy rain. Large CAPE and evaporative
cooling could yield brief and isolated strong to severe wind
gusts.
Main synoptic cold front slides south through the area overnight.
Could be a few isolated showers near boundary per a few hires models
but at this point plan on leaving out of forecast. Drier air will
filter in late tonight. Surface high to slide southeast from upper
Midwest across the western Lakes Sunday while mid level ridge builds
to our west. This will provide a comfortable day with north to
northeast winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
High pressure will be over the area at start of period but will be
sliding east as return flow develops. Another upper midwest MCS
looks likely Sunday night as short wave tops plains ridge.
Convectively enhanced short wave then looks to drop southeast Monday
and helps bring a weak front into the north late as heights fall.
This will set the stage for shower and thunderstorm chances through
much of the week as this boundary becomes quasi stationary and
meanders across the region with short wave energy emanating east
from a developing mid level closed low to our west. This low will
then drift towards the area by mid to late week with additional
showers and thunderstorms in its vicinity. Models have shown various
solutions with track and timing of this low. Prefer slower solutions
but its exact southeastward track remains uncertain. Really no
choice but to continue chance pops through much of the upcoming week
though it will be dry for a large part of the time with occasional
convective chances. Details to be refined as the week progresses.
Temperatures to remain seasonably warm in the 80s with clouds and
pcpn chances impacting these numbers day to day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2016
vfr conds xpcd this pd as ridging sfc and aloft rebuilds
acrs the region.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
Currently, 20Z visible and WV imagery show a modified North Pacific
Low over the Eastern Northern Plains into portions of the Upper MS
Valley. A warm boundary stretches from MN to Illinois into the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, a weak cold boundary lags behind the system
through Western Nebraska into Colorado. A lee side low is
positioned over southeast Colorado ahead of a minor lead shortwave.
A fairly well defined upper low continues to spin over the Southern
Plains.
Weak lift is making its way around the low over the Southern Plains
and has continued to support thunderstorms with instability of 2000
J/kg and weak shear of 20-25kts. Some of this energy may work into
southern portions of the forecast area, so have added some POPs
through late afternoon but don`t expect activity to persist as peak
heating subsides. Out west, the previously mentioned wave will be
working into the Northern portions of the Central Plains into
tomorrow morning and afternoon. Have actually reduced POPs near
term a bit as confidence in getting too much precip before late
morning into the afternoon on Monday is not looking as good as it
previously has. Weak forcing over the area with the bulk of
vorticity off to the north of northeastern KS leads to lower
confidence in more than slight POPs over northeast KS. Also,
confidence in MCS development overnight coming in from Nebraska
continues to be the main question as to whether storms hold together
or if any outflow ends up over the forecast area. At this time, it
looks like we could mainly be seeing any thunderstorm and showers
later in the morning into the early afternoon time frame as
additional lift comes from the slowly advancing cold front from
western Nebraska. Not expecting severe storms at this point since
lapse rates are only in the 5.5 C/km range and again shear profiles
look weak. Given the expected cloud cover, have highs less than
recent days mainly in the upper 80s. Expecting lows to be similar
tonight with no significant air mass change taking place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
Main concern for the period will be thunderstorms, some strong to
severe from Monday night through Tuesday night. Monday night models
continue to point toward the development of an MCS over the western
high plains then moving east northeast across Nebraska and Kansas.
The early morning MCS will likely have an effect on where boundaries
will be located and how long clouds and any precipitation hang
around. This will likely have an affect on destabilization ahead of
the approaching cold front across northeast Kansas on Tuesday. Shear
is sufficient as well as forecast instability for storms to be
strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Main hazards
look to be damaging winds and large hail. A tornado is also possible
especially across east central Kansas where helicity is favorable.
A relatively quiet weather period is seen from Wednesday night
through Sunday. Upper level riding over the central US keeps any
chances for storms very slim, although the occasional model brings
slight chances during the afternoon some days. Overall, a pretty dry
and hot period with temperatures topping out in the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
Going with a VFR forecast right now for the terminals. It does
appear that mostly subsidence will remain in control but an
approaching upper wave will eventually help to saturate mid levels
so forecasting mostly a mid level cloud layer overspreading the
terminals by morning. Unsure on actual coverage so only going
with SCT at this time. As winds calm tonight, expecting some HZ or
BR at least around the KTOP/KFOE terminals.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Heller/53
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
Surface analysis indicates Cold front approximate from northern
Colorado across western Nebraska with prefrontal trough extending
south across eastern Colorado. Radar shows slow moving/back
building thunderstorms ahead of main front in our northwest CWA,
while satellite shows CU field developing into NW Kansas.
This afternoon-tonight: Convection already underway is currently
matching trends in RAP/HRRR along with high resolution convective
allowing models (ARW/NMM). RAP analysis indicated CAP already
weakening across much of our CWA with ML CIN approaching zero.
Main axis of forcing is near frontal zone, and trend should be
towards convection filling in across the west and spreading
eastward. Initially convective environment (with high DCAPE and
10kft dry adiabatic layer) will support elevated microburst
potential, and increasing CAPE associated with Tds in the 60s will
support a few stronger updrafts. Shear is on the weaker end, so
stronger storms will tend to be more pulsy in nature. Front will
transition south, aided by possible cold pool with additional
activity developing with easterly flow north of front and moderate
elevated instability through the night.
Mean flow 5-15kt will support slow storm motions will tend to be
on the slower side. There is a anomalously moist air mass in
place with PWATs already in excess of 1.5" according to RAP
analysis. Strong moist inflow towards the frontal zone will lead
to training and backbuilding of thunderstorms. With thunderstorm
activity expected to increase in coverage and slowly spread across
the region the threat for flooding warranted Flash Flood Watch
issuance through tonight.
Monday: Majority of guidance supports eastward trend in nighttime
convective activity Monday morning with a possible lull through
midday. Stronger large scale forcing associated with approaching
upper level trough will support redevelopment Monday afternoon,
with lull serving to prime atmosphere with increasing
instability through the day. As upper low moves east stalled front
will lift north with increasing veering supporting stronger shear
and potential super cell development. All modes of severe weather
will be possible Monday afternoon, with significant hail and some
tornadoes possible.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
During the extended period, expect predominantly sunny skies and
above normal temperatures, as an upper level ridge influence the
High Plains Region. Afternoon highs will reach into the mid to
upper 90s while overnight lows will range between the mid 50s to
the mid 60s. The exception looks to be on Saturday, where models
show a small weather disturbance moving across the area. This
feature will produce slighting cooler temperatures, highs around
90, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in
the northeastern part of the Tri-State Area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the first
6-9hr of the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity is already
developing in NE Colorado (apparent on radar) and this should
increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread eastward
towards both KGLD and KMCK. Confidence has increased enough to
fine tune mention/timing of peak thunderstorm period in the TAFs
at both terminals. A few strong/severe storms will be possible,
but this would mainly be in the evening/overnight, and it is still
too far out to include TEMPO mention.
I have less confidence in cigs/vis, as some guidance is hitting
on the very good moist return late tonight and attempting to
produce IFR cigs/LIFR vis after 09z through late Monday morning.
These lower conditions will be dependent on thunderstorms
clearing, and there is still an indication that thunderstorms may
linger near both terminals after 09z. Due to the low confidence I
kept CIGS 3000kft or higher and vis 6sm or higher. This will need
to be monitored.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>003-013>015-
027>029-041-042.
CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.
NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
A weak MCV was moving across northwest Missouri this afternoon which
formed from an earlier MCS over Iowa this morning. Short term high
resolution models have been showing convection developing through
the morning and afternoon in northeast and east central Kansas.
Latest RUC soundings show a weak cap remaining in place through peak
heating. Cumulus remains rather flat across the area this afternoon
similar to previous afternoons. Upper level ridge remains in place
across the Central Plains. Tonight expect the cumulus clouds to
dissipate with the loss of heating with mostly clear skies expected.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night with low to mid 70s
common. Sunday models continue to show some mid level energy over
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. There may be enough lift in
the afternoon when atmosphere becomes uncapped for isolated
thunderstorms to develop from southeast Kansas into Arkansas and
will leave east central Kansas dry for now with model qpf
clustering to the southeast of the cwa. Highs on Sunday will be
similar to today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will again approach 100 degrees across parts of the area on Sunday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
Sunday night through Tuesday, storm chances increase for much of the
period. Late Sunday evening have gone with slight chance POPs over
southern to western portions of the area as perhaps weak forcing may
provide enough lift in a moist environment to cause a few showers
and thunderstorms. The chance remains small at this point as the
boundary layer will remain mostly capped off and a weak upper
circulation advances into southern Missouri. Late Sunday, a storm
complex develops over west central Nebraska along the nose of a LLJ
and slowly works its way southeast into the forecast area by early
morning into a less favorably sheared environment and an area of
smaller scale shortwave ridging. During the day, remnant
thunderstorm activity and an uncapped environment should lead to
mostly cloudy conditions with a few thunderstorms possible over
eastern portions of the forecast area where weak ridging will still
be influencing the area but continuing to be suppressed as larger
scale forcing advances from the west. Therefore, have left chance
POPs over western portions of the forecast area into the afternoon
on Monday.
Tuesday night, a LLJ will likely aid in the development
of thunderstorms over western KS and as storms grow upscale, another
complex may develop and begin to advance into the north central
Kansas and on into northeastern Kansas over night. Most long term
guidance is generally in better agreement but still details seem to
be in question such as exact positioning of the upper wave and
strength of the upper wave as it moves out of the Central Rockies
into the Central Plains. Previous runs have shown this wave to
actually be a closed off low and more intense but that has been
backed off at this point a bit and now the overall flow of the
southern stream energy may be a bit weaker. Regardless, a more
northerly track of the upper low seems to make sense based on
current positioning just off the SoCal region. Depending on the
actual strength of the upper trough feature, it seems to make sense
that as the overnight MCS organizes out west and moves into western
portions of the forecast area it could be sustained through the
morning into the early afternoon hours as shear profiles increase to
above 35kts, MUCAPE reaches to around 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg and mid-
level lapse rates increase to at least conditional and probably up
to around 7 C/km. Of course, some changes will likely occur between
now and Tuesday as to how much severe potential we end up with, but
at least some needed rain will likely fall over much of the area as
the long term forecast looks mainly dry after this round of precip
with possibly the exception of next Friday time frame as a
frontogenetical response sets up on the backside of the wave
previously mentioned as it transitions into a cut-off low eventually
working back into portions of the Ohio and mid MS Valley regions
before filling and transitioning into a frontal system over the East
coast region. Temps cool back a bit into the mid and upper 80s by
next weekend as more zonal flow sets up over the Northern into
Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
Sfc high pressure to the southeast keeps winds below 10 kts
through the period. Overall VFR conditions with a brief period of
BR or haze near sunrise. Thunder chances are low from 00Z onward
so did not include.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Could
see a period of briefly gusty S-SW winds at the terminals in the
afternoon, with a few gusts to 25 kts at KALS from 19z-00z.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to adjust the forecast based on the latest radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the Kansas border and will continue to track east through 2
am. Hail to the size of dimes and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish by, or shortly
after 06z with dry weather persisting through 18Z. A few
thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain after 18Z,
persisting through 02Z/Wednesday. This activity is unlikely to
impact airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah over the
next 24 hours. Consequently, look for VFR conditions with CIGS
remaining above ILS breakpoints through the period. However,
expect winds to become breezy from the southwest during the
afternoon with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH across much of the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
Upper shortwave trof over the Central Rockies is moving quickly to
the northeast, while outflows from convection over the panhandles
has made it as far northeast as the RDA at this hour. Forecast area
remains dry at this hour, with warm overnight lows again in the
lower 70s with dewpoints near 70.
For convection today, lack of strong concentrated lift or a discrete
boundary seems to be where models differ, as cap is weak and would
take little to initiate convection. Some models still bring in
morning showers and thunder from ongoing convection out west, though
the lift driving it is on the wane through the morning hours. HiRes
models also suggest isolated to scattered morning convection, before
a break late morning, with redevelopment late afternoon into the
evening and moving through the east central counties. GFS also
driving round of afternoon storms out of Nebraska into east central
counties in the evening. 06ZNAM showing some weak surface
convergence and a dewpoint gradient near the NE border where
synoptic lift is a bit better, and generates a line of storms in the
evening hours, with another round possible late evening over the far
east central counties although the source is a bit harder to
discern.
In any case, CAPE values in the column running 2000j/kg and
directional shear of 25-30kts would make hail the primary hazard,
and more likely so in the northern areas where better ingredients
come together to initiate storms. Couldn`t rule out a tornado if a
storm can get going along a boundary. End result was to spread
precip chances west to east, with a higher focus to the north and in
the east central into the evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
Westerly low-level winds overnight bring a somewhat warmer airmass
into the area for Wednesday, with conditions showing little change
in the mid to late week periods as upper ridge builds over the
central CONUS in modest advections. Models suggesting various ideas
of isolated to scattered convection potential returning as early as
Thursday night as PWs increase to over 1.5 inches again. Hard to
rule this out completely but not worthy of a mention. With 850mb
temps in the lower to middle 20s C, the main forecast challenge
looks to be dewpoint values. Have bumped values up a bit given weak
mixing, with peak heat index values around 105 in some places
through the end of the week, and only slightly cooler this weekend.
Heat headline potential will need to be monitored. There remains
some signal for the ridge breaking down early next week but
confidence in this is not high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
VFR prevails through period with concerns focusing on MVFR stratus
and fog from 10 to 14Z. Thereafter, scattered showers and thunder
may center near KMHK with more uncertainty further east at KTOP
and KFOE. With the main upper wave coming through in the late
afternoon evening, placed a VCTS for a few severe storms in the
area through 02Z before clearing skies.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Remnants of the Mesoscale convective complex (MCS) over SW KS has
moved south into Wrn OK at this time, with just a weak outflow
moving across the area. Lift associated with the main shortwave
currently in the Rockies and increased warm advection ahead of it,
has led to scattered showers/storms increasing across much of ern CO
and wrn KS early this morning. Expect this warm advection and lift
to gradually shift east into wrn sections of the forecast late this
morning, with scattered showers/storms breaking out for most areas
west of I-135 for the morning hours. Expect most of the morning
shower activity to slowly shift to NE into NE KS by midday, as a
hybrid pacific/dryline pushes out of wrn ks into Central KS by this
afternoon. Morning showers and associated cloudiness will make
diagnosing afternoon convective/severe storm chances
messy/difficult.
Lots of uncertainty on how this afternoon will play out as the
morning cloudiness limits afternoon heating. An unstable airmass
will be located across most of Ern KS, even with the cloudiness,
with SBCAPE values expected to climb into the 3500-4000 J/KG range.
As the shortwave over the high plains lifts north across Neb, bulk
shear is also expected to increase to 30-40 kts. Expect the morning
convection to become more surface based to the NE of the forecast
area as the afternoon progresses. But the big question further
south, will be if enough heating can materialize for the late
afternoon hours as the dryline line/front pushes to near I-135.
Latest hi-res models suggest that cloud cover will limit convective
chances for the late afternoon hours, possibly delaying chances the
small chance until this evening. Also with better dynamics further
north, think convective chances across the forecast area (further
south) will be isolated at best, to a few supercells, if heating can
allow atmosphere to erode the weak cap.
Consensus of the short range models places the dryline/front along I-
135 by this afternoon. If a storm can get going, the very unstable
airmass and shear suggests a supercell storm and severe potential,
especially for areas along and east of the Turnpike. Scratching my
head a little on the abrupt shift to the NE of the day 1 SPC
outlook. Would prefer to keep a severe mention for areas east of the
KS Turnpike with tennis ball size hail and damaging winds possible,
But an expected more isolated storm coverage is why the SPC shift to
the NE. Cannot completely rule out a low tornado threat, associated
with any supercell that can develop, possibly rooted along a remnant
outflow boundary which will increase helicity/low level shear. Best
chance for a supercell to develop will be across South Central KS
(if slower front progression materializes) and (more likely) across
the Flint HIlls in southern KS near the KS/OK border.
Expect any supercell that does develop to move east into Wrn MO
during the late evening hours. Thunderstorm chances appear to be
more numerous for areas NE of the forecast area across NE KS where
better dynamics look to be more focused.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting a "hot time in the old town" for the end of
the week, as the mid level ridge builds back across the plains.
Could see locations in South Central KS reach 100-102 degrees for
Wed and near 100 on Thu, as south-SW flow will lead to optimal
downslope conditions. Will have to keep an eye on areas east of the
KS Turnpike for Wed/Thu as the combination of the hot temps in the
upper 90s and humid air with surface dewpoints in the low 70s may
lead to Heat Index values reaching the 105 to 107 range. So a heat
advisory may be needed with later forecast issuance`s across
extreme Southern KS.
Plan on keeping the end of the week into the weekend dry, as the
ridge builds across the area. Could see a few spurious/isolated
storms develop on Wed, Thu or Fri across Srn KS as a weak impulse
drifts underneath the ridge, with temps possibly reaching their
convective temp. But chance is too isolated and low to mention just
yet.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Complicated and difficult forecast regarding thunderstorm chances
and potential low ceilings overnight into Tuesday morning.
Expect gusty/erratic winds for a few hours past midnight over
portions of central and south-central KS in response to decaying
shower/thunderstorm complex approaching from the west, including
Wichita. May see a few showers associated with this feature, but
thinking most areas will remain dry. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight into early
Tuesday morning from western into central and northern KS in
response to increasing warm advection/moisture transport ahead of
Central Rockies upper trough, including Great Bend-Salina-Russell,
and maybe Hutchinson. Meanwhile, locations that remain
undisturbed from convective outflow could see low clouds once
again later tonight into early Tuesday, probably mainly southeast
KS, including Chanute and maybe Wichita-Hutchinson. Furthermore,
additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may form
generally east of I-135 Tuesday afternoon. Some of these may be
severe with large hail/damaging winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 93 72 101 75 / 30 20 10 10
Hutchinson 92 69 101 73 / 30 10 10 10
Newton 91 71 99 73 / 30 20 10 10
ElDorado 91 71 97 73 / 30 30 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 93 73 99 74 / 30 30 10 10
Russell 91 66 101 72 / 40 10 10 10
Great Bend 91 67 101 72 / 40 10 10 10
Salina 92 68 101 74 / 40 10 10 10
McPherson 92 69 100 74 / 30 10 10 10
Coffeyville 90 74 96 74 / 30 40 10 10
Chanute 90 73 98 74 / 30 40 10 10
Iola 91 72 98 74 / 30 40 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 90 74 97 74 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The extended period is expected to be hot and dry!
A upper level ridge will influence the High Plains as an area
of high pressure expands across the southwestern U.S. over the
weekend. A few weak shortwaves looks to be in the flow aloft, but
with the dry airmass in place, don`t expect more than an
isolated thunderstorm or two as they move off the higher terrain
and dissipate over the plains.
This pattern will lead to unseasonably hot temperatures each
day with the daily high temperatures reaching the middle 90s to
the lower 100s range, from west to east, across the Tri- State
area. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s
and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska.
However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern
Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing
storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature.
Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper
level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the
NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus.
Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow
boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed.
Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now,
did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear
tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western
Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon
the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing
skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and
variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon
around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper
ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will
range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge
City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For the period of Wednesday into next Monday, upper level ridging
builds deeply into the Central Plains. This will cause hot
temperatures around 100 to 102 degrees each day with very warm lows
around 70. Heat index values should stay below the 105 degree
thresholds for heat advisory. There also will be very little to no
chance for any precipitation though this period. Winds will be
mainly southerly through the period with clear to mostly clear skies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10
P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western
Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon
the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing
skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and
variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon
around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper
ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will
range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge
City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For the period of Wednesday into next Monday, upper level ridging
builds deeply into the Central Plains. This will cause hot
temperatures around 100 to 102 degrees each day with very warm lows
around 70. Heat index values should stay below the 105 degree
thresholds for heat advisory. There also will be very little to no
chance for any precipitation though this period. Winds will be
mainly southerly through the period with clear to mostly clear skies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10
P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
For today, an upper level shortwave trough will move across western
Kansas this morning with areas of non severe showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east with this wave. By afternoon
the upper wave will be moving into central Kansas with clearing
skies across western Kansas in back of the system. Light and
variable winds early become west to southwesterly this afternoon
around 10 mph. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
For tonight, winds become more southerly at 5 to 10 mph as upper
ridging builds into the Plains with clear skies. Lows tonight will
range from around 60 far west to the mid and upper 60s from Dodge
City to Wakeeney and east into south central Kansas.
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at
least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains
with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific. Winds shift back
to a southerly direction Wednesday as a trough of low pressure
develops across eastern Colorado. This feature is expected to
continue through the remainder of the week with winds meandering
between a southerly and southwesterly direction. As for
temperatures, highs look to hover around 100 degrees each day with
lows ranging from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to
lower 70s across south central Kansas each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 66 100 70 / 20 0 0 10
GCK 91 62 100 66 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 92 61 100 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 94 63 100 67 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 90 65 101 69 / 20 10 10 10
P28 95 70 102 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry.
The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the
week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of
high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area
centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high
plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the
plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the
southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry
airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t
expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the
higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains.
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably
hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally
ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east
across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to
recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are
anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further
monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and
south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing
a heat highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska.
However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern
Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing
storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature.
Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper
level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the
NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus.
Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow
boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed.
Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now,
did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear
tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry.
The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the
week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of
high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area
centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high
plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the
plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the
southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry
airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t
expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the
higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains.
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably
hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally
ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east
across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to
recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are
anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further
monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and
south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing
a heat highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Large complex of storms is moving across western Nebraska.
However, this activity should remain north of KMCK. Monitoring
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving in from eastern
Colorado. Felt comfortable eliminating tempo group prevailing
storms at KMCK as any precipitation should be showery in nature.
Precipitation gradually exits the region this morning as upper
level disturbance slides east. Some high-res guidance, notably the
NAM, are forecasting patchy fog and a few areas of MVFR stratus.
Am not sure I want to bite on this as showers and remnant outflow
boundaries should keep the boundary layer a little more mixed.
Also, dry air should spread in behind the precipitation. For now,
did not mention MVFR fog/stratus at TAF sites. Skies clear
tomorrow with light west or northwest winds prevailing.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1159 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorm complex currently over southwest KS and OK Panhandle
should continue to maintain its strength over the next few hours
given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment over the
High Plains. Propagation will likely maintain to the
east/southeast along northern fringe of highest theta-e air over
the southern High Plains. Thinking with time the complex may tend
to weaken/diminish some as it approaches south-central KS toward
11pm-midnight, due to lack of appreciable low-level jet, lower
instability and weaker shear. Short-term hi-res guidance supports
this scenario. Beyond midnight, thunderstorm forecast confidence
is low, with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere
along and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest
moisture transport/warm advection, underneath broad large scale
ascent ahead of approaching upper trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Main concern is convective potential throughout the period.
Confidence is low that any of the models have a good handle, but
midday RAP seemed to be the best fit to anticipated evolution.
Current theory is that convection in Southeast KS will continue to
bubble until sunset, with combo of heating and location ahead of
weak mid level boundary evident on morning upper air analysis.
Meanwhile convection appears likely in Western Nebraska and
potentially into Colorado/Western KS this evening. Am not inclined
to believe most models showing due east movement given what
happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although
slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent.
Went slower than previous forecast moving precipitation in
tonight, mostly likely reaching Central KS closer to midnight and
then into South Central KS around daybreak. Whether precipitation
holds together and amount of areal coverage is questionable given
lack of good baroclinic zone or upper wave.
Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday:
Tuesday afternoon is a wild card with much depending on extent
and track of convection Monday night/Tuesday morning. In absence
of extensive precipitation/clouds over the area, conditions would
favor a higher end severe threat. However if models are correct
with extensive precipitation in NE KS in the morning, the outflow
could either enhance or nix thunderstorm chances in Southeast KS,
depending on how far south it goes. Temperatures will be highly
dependent on amount of convective debris. May flirt with heat
advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday along OK border in
Southeast KS. Given high uncertainty in precipitation, opted to
not go with a headline. Maxes on Wednesday should be warmer as
500MB ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures possibly a degree or
two cooler on Thursday. Capping/lack of forcing should shut down
precipitation chances on both Wednesday/Thursday. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Little change to initialization grids. Given anticipated 1000-850
thicknesses, did shave a degree off maxes on Friday and upped
maxes in the Sunday/Monday. Chances for precipitation this period
look to be slim. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Complicated and difficult forecast regarding thunderstorm chances
and potential low ceilings overnight into Tuesday morning.
Expect gusty/erratic winds for a few hours past midnight over
portions of central and south-central KS in response to decaying
shower/thunderstorm complex approaching from the west, including
Wichita. May see a few showers associated with this feature, but
thinking most areas will remain dry. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight into early
Tuesday morning from western into central and northern KS in
response to increasing warm advection/moisture transport ahead of
Central Rockies upper trough, including Great Bend-Salina-Russell,
and maybe Hutchinson. Meanwhile, locations that remain
undisturbed from convective outflow could see low clouds once
again later tonight into early Tuesday, probably mainly southeast
KS, including Chanute and maybe Wichita-Hutchinson. Furthermore,
additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may form
generally east of I-135 Tuesday afternoon. Some of these may be
severe with large hail/damaging winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 72 97 72 99 / 30 20 20 10
Hutchinson 72 95 69 99 / 40 30 10 10
Newton 71 95 71 99 / 30 30 20 10
ElDorado 71 93 71 97 / 20 30 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 72 96 73 98 / 30 20 20 10
Russell 69 92 66 100 / 40 40 10 10
Great Bend 69 93 67 100 / 40 40 10 10
Salina 72 95 68 100 / 40 40 10 10
McPherson 71 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10
Coffeyville 70 95 74 96 / 10 30 30 10
Chanute 70 93 73 96 / 20 30 40 10
Iola 70 92 72 96 / 20 30 40 10
Parsons-KPPF 70 93 74 96 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
Currently, 20Z WV imagery shows a weak shortwave over extreme
eastern Nebraska with a stationary boundary at the surface near the
highway 81 corridor as a rough location. East of this boundary,
afternoon convective temp has been reached generally along and east
of the I-335 corridor and south of I-70. No lightning has been
occurring with these showers and tops are generally around 20kft.
These multicells should eventually dissipate after 5-6pm tonight.
Longer wave vort lobe is out west over the Desert Southwest with a
lead shortwave over the Central Rockies. These two pieces of energy
will define the next 24 hours.
Expecting the lead wave to pull out of the Central Rockies late this
evening as storms develop along the foothills of the Rockies and
grow upscale eventually into an MCS as the LLJ kicks in later this
evening. Overnight, the LLJ will be the focus to keep the MCS going
along with the upper level support. By morning, mid level lapse
rates seem to be less than conditionally unstable and the LLJ should
weaken, so expecting the remnants of the MCS to work into
northeastern KS. However, there could still be a few stronger
storms capable of hail and gusty winds with this activity.
Depending on where any outflow boundaries set up and linger through
Tuesday will likely be the focus for afternoon development as this
forecast will depend on trailing stratus to clear at least enough to
allow the atmosphere to recover. As the main wave pulls out of the
Rockies and into the Northern Plains, expecting mid level lapse
rates steepen to 7-8C/km, 0-6km shear increases to 40-50kts and will
move overhead the forecast area under mid 70C dewpoints at the
surface. This will allow for surface based CAPE values to be above
probably 3000-3500J/kg. Current hodographs in the afternoon time
frame do appear to be favorable for supercell structures. Again,
previous outflow boundaries could play a role as well, allowing for
surface winds to be backed. Therefore, the main threat is likely to
be very large hail if supercells form, strong gusty winds and also a
tornado risk. However, the 0-1 shear and effective SRH may not be
ideal at least looking 24 hours out. All in all, this will be the
most active weather day in recent time by far. But there are a few
factors that need to come together, so the forecast will likely need
updates after the morning MCS impacts the area. Expecting that
severe storms that do fire would be after the 3PM time frame and
last into the early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
Main concern will be ongoing convection across the area Tuesday
evening. Northeast Kansas will be on the southern end of a shortwave
trough moving across the Missouri Valley tuesday evening. The upper
trough axis moves through eastern Kansas during the evening hours.
Frontal boundary/dryline looks to be across central Kansas into
eastern Nebraska at 00Z Wednesday. Shear and instability look
favorable for a large hail event along with strong winds. Forecast
hodographs show some potential for tornadoes during the evening
hours. An upper level ridge builds into the Central Plains through
Thursday. Dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s along with highs in
the 90s will produce heat indices in the 99 to 106 degree range
Wednesday and again on Thursday.
By Thursday evening, an expansive ridge will be over the central US
keeping the weather relatively quiet Friday through the weekend. The
next likely chance for thunderstorms looks to be Sunday night into
Monday associated with a boundary near the area. Temperatures will
be hot through the weekend with heat indicies over 100 degrees both
Friday and Saturday. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
VFR prevails through period with concerns focusing on MVFR stratus
and fog from 10 to 14Z. Thereafter, scattered showers and thunder
may center near KMHK with more uncertainty further east at KTOP
and KFOE. With the main upper wave coming through in the late
afternoon evening, placed a VCTS for a few severe storms in the
area through 02Z before clearing skies.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Heller/53
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible again as an upper
level shortwave moves out of the Rockies and into the Central High
Plains. Thunderstorms are currently forming across the front range
this afternoon and will move eastward as time progresses. These
storms should stay out of the Dodge City CWA until this evening
with increasing mid level cumulus this afternoon. An area of low
pressure and associated frontal boundary will be positioned across
eastern Colorado this afternoon then push eastward into Kansas
this evening. This will lead to southeasterly winds across the
area. Any storms that do develop and move into western Kansas will
be capable of becoming severe with hail up to 2 inches in diameter
and winds over 60 mph being the main concern. An isolated tornado
will also be possible through 10 PM. A cluster of storms or MCS
will roll through the area overnight with mostly cloudy skies.
These storms should only be confined to central and south central
Kansas by sunrise tomorrow then exit the area by mid morning.
Cloudiness will also decrease from west to east tomorrow morning
with mostly clear skies expected in the afternoon. The frontal
boundary mentioned earlier will move through the area by tomorrow
afternoon shifting winds to the west to northwest. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s across
portions of west central Kansas to lower 70s across portions of
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are forecasted to range from
the lower 90s across west central Kansas to upper 90s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at
least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains
with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific. Winds shift back
to a southerly direction Wednesday as a trough of low pressure
develops across eastern Colorado. This feature is expected to
continue through the remainder of the week with winds meandering
between a southerly and southwesterly direction. As for
temperatures, highs look to hover around 100 degrees each day with
lows ranging from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to
lower 70s across south central Kansas each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 96 66 102 / 90 10 10 0
GCK 64 94 62 100 / 100 10 0 0
EHA 61 94 61 99 / 90 0 0 0
LBL 63 97 64 102 / 90 10 0 0
HYS 67 91 64 100 / 30 30 10 10
P28 71 97 70 105 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible again as an upper
level shortwave moves out of the Rockies and into the Central High
Plains. Thunderstorms are currently forming across the front range
this afternoon and will move eastward as time progresses. These
storms should stay out of the Dodge City CWA until this evening
with increasing mid level cumulus this afternoon. An area of low
pressure and associated frontal boundary will be positioned across
eastern Colorado this afternoon then push eastward into Kansas
this evening. This will lead to southeasterly winds across the
area. Any storms that do develop and move into western Kansas will
be capable of becoming severe with hail up to 2 inches in diameter
and winds over 60 mph being the main concern. An isolated tornado
will also be possible through 10 PM. A cluster of storms or MCS
will roll through the area overnight with mostly cloudy skies.
These storms should only be confined to central and south central
Kansas by sunrise tomorrow then exit the area by mid morning.
Cloudiness will also decrease from west to east tomorrow morning
with mostly clear skies expected in the afternoon. The frontal
boundary mentioned earlier will move through the area by tomorrow
afternoon shifting winds to the west to northwest. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s across
portions of west central Kansas to lower 70s across portions of
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are forecasted to range from
the lower 90s across west central Kansas to upper 90s across south
central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A quiet and dry weather pattern is expected Tuesday through at
least the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Plains
with an upper level low over the eastern Pacific. Winds shift back
to a southerly direction Wednesday as a trough of low pressure
develops across eastern Colorado. This feature is expected to
continue through the remainder of the week with winds meandering
between a southerly and southwesterly direction. As for
temperatures, highs look to hover around 100 degrees each day with
lows ranging from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to
lower 70s across south central Kansas each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Light upslope southeasterly winds are forecast behind an earlier
MCS. Winds may become light and variable later tonight then
southwesterly after 15Z as another upper wave exits the area.
There also could be some scattered thunderstorms moving back into
the area from Colorado after 09Z with another upper wave, but
confidence is too low to add to TAF fcst at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 96 66 102 / 90 10 10 0
GCK 64 94 62 100 / 100 10 0 0
EHA 61 94 61 99 / 90 0 0 0
LBL 63 97 64 102 / 90 10 0 0
HYS 67 91 64 100 / 30 30 10 10
P28 71 97 70 105 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
942 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Allowed Tornado Watch 250 to expire on time at 9 PM MDT. Made some
adjustments to pops and weather. It appears our northern CWA
thunderstorm complex is beginning to take shape over northeast
Colorado. Am a little concerned about storms popping around
Colorado Springs. Not sure if they will make it this far east but
it is something to monitor.
UPDATE Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry.
The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the
week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of
high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area
centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high
plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the
plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the
southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry
airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t
expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the
higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains.
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably
hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally
ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east
across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to
recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are
anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further
monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and
south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing
a heat highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 548 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A lot of uncertainty with this TAF cycle. Am growing concerned
that two separate storm complexes will move across the High
Plains...but potential exists that this convection will miss both
TAF sites. Current trends are increasing pessimism, particularly
for storm chances at KGLD. Maintained a thunderstorm mention for
consistency`s sake. As for KMCK, many members of high-res guidance
show the area of storms over north central Colorado congealing
into a large complex, spreading across western nebraska and
extreme northwestern Kansas through the night. Therefore, felt
more comfortable maintaining thunderstorm mention at KMCK. Also
included a period of gusty winds from the west as a result of an
outflow boundary moving through. Storms will exit the region late
tonight. Dry weather and mostly clear skies can be expected
Tuesday.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
806 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Eliminated portions of Tornado Watch 250. Current trends with the
storms and environment no longer supported a watch for Cheyenne
and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado and Wallace...Sherman and
Cheyenne Counties in Kansas.
In addition, eliminated Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 as storms
that prompted the watch have moved east and weakened.
As for an evening update, decided to lower pops some. Storms
spreading over northeast Colorado may finally be the beginnings of
the expected storm cluster that should move through. Reduced pops
slightly but kept them highest north of Highway 36 where
thunderstorms are still possible/probable.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253.
This watch is for Wichita County Kansas. The new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 250 for Greeley County
Kansas. Tornado Watch 250 remains in effect for the previously
issued counties.
Am growing concerned that a large portion of the forecast area
may not see thunderstorms tonight. Strong/severe storms are moving
into Greeley county right now but these storms should only skirt
the Greeley and Wichita Counties and perhaps Gove and Logan
Counties. Further north, storms seem to be moving more north
instead of east. High-res guidance remain persistent in showing a
large complex moving roughly along and north of Highway 36
tonight. A lot to work over and monitor this evening and will
update when trends become more evident. Made some adjustments to
pops already but may need to be more aggressive if current trends
of thunderstorms weakening over central Colorado continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move
into far eastern Colorado around/shortly after 3 pm mdt
continuing east across the CO/KS border around 5 or 6 pm mdt. As
the line moves east through mid evening some dissipation in
coverage is expected. All modes of severe weather are possible
including large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is
possible along or just ahead of the line. Heavy rainfall also
possible.
Models are advertising a second round of thunderstorms to move
into far eastern Colorado around or shortly before midnight then
east across the remainder of the area through sunrise Tuesday
morning. A few of these storms could be severe but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall.
Areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy
rainfall this afternoon and tonight will have a higher risk of
flash flooding.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s east of the CO/KS border. High
temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The Long Term portion of the forecast is expected to be hot and dry.
The system that brought thunderstorms to the area early in the
week continues to move off to the east Tuesday night. A ridge of
high pressure extending northward from a high pressure area
centered over southwest Texas begins amplifying over the high
plains region on Wednesday. The upper ridge moves east over the
plains states with the area of high pressure expanding across the
southwestern U.S.through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A few weak waves show up in the flow aloft, but with the dry
airmass in place over the central High Plains and Rockies, don`t
expect more than an isolated thunderstorm to two to move off the
higher terrain and dissipate as they move over the plains.
High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to unseasonably
hot temperatures each day with daily high temperatures generally
ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s from west to east
across the forecast area. Overnight temperatures are expected to
recover into the 50s and 60s, so no heat related highlights are
anticipated at this time. However, this will bear further
monitoring as overnight temperatures across central Kansas and
south central Nebraska over the upcoming weekend will remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, increasing the possibility of needing
a heat highlight.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 548 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
A lot of uncertainty with this TAF cycle. Am growing concerned
that two separate storm complexes will move across the High
Plains...but potential exists that this convection will miss both
TAF sites. Current trends are increasing pessimism, particularly
for storm chances at KGLD. Maintained a thunderstorm mention for
consistency`s sake. As for KMCK, many members of high-res guidance
show the area of storms over north central Colorado congealing
into a large complex, spreading across western nebraska and
extreme northwestern Kansas through the night. Therefore, felt
more comfortable maintaining thunderstorm mention at KMCK. Also
included a period of gusty winds from the west as a result of an
outflow boundary moving through. Storms will exit the region late
tonight. Dry weather and mostly clear skies can be expected
Tuesday.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
730 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorm complex currently over southwest KS and OK Panhandle
should continue to maintain its strength over the next few hours
given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment over the
High Plains. Propagation will likely maintain to the
east/southeast along northern fringe of highest theta-e air over
the southern High Plains. Thinking with time the complex may tend
to weaken/diminish some as it approaches south-central KS toward
11pm-midnight, due to lack of appreciable low-level jet, lower
instability and weaker shear. Short-term hi-res guidance supports
this scenario. Beyond midnight, thunderstorm forecast confidence
is low, with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere
along and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest
moisture transport/warm advection, underneath broad large scale
ascent ahead of approaching upper trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Main concern is convective potential throughout the period.
Confidence is low that any of the models have a good handle, but
midday RAP seemed to be the best fit to anticipated evolution.
Current theory is that convection in Southeast KS will continue to
bubble until sunset, with combo of heating and location ahead of
weak mid level boundary evident on morning upper air analysis.
Meanwhile convection appears likely in Western Nebraska and
potentially into Colorado/Western KS this evening. Am not inclined
to believe most models showing due east movement given what
happened this morning, upper flow and thermal gradient, although
slightly warmer mid level temperatures may limit southern extent.
Went slower than previous forecast moving precipitation in
tonight, mostly likely reaching Central KS closer to midnight and
then into South Central KS around daybreak. Whether precipitation
holds together and amount of areal coverage is questionable given
lack of good baroclinic zone or upper wave.
Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday:
Tuesday afternoon is a wild card with much depending on extent
and track of convection Monday night/Tuesday morning. In absence
of extensive precipitation/clouds over the area, conditions would
favor a higher end severe threat. However if models are correct
with extensive precipitation in NE KS in the morning, the outflow
could either enhance or nix thunderstorm chances in Southeast KS,
depending on how far south it goes. Temperatures will be highly
dependent on amount of convective debris. May flirt with heat
advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday along OK border in
Southeast KS. Given high uncertainty in precipitation, opted to
not go with a headline. Maxes on Wednesday should be warmer as
500MB ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures possibly a degree or
two cooler on Thursday. Capping/lack of forcing should shut down
precipitation chances on both Wednesday/Thursday. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Little change to initialization grids. Given anticipated 1000-850
thicknesses, did shave a degree off maxes on Friday and upped
maxes in the Sunday/Monday. Chances for precipitation this period
look to be slim. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Main concern the next 24 hours is thunderstorm potential.
Thunderstorm complex currently over the central and southern High
Plains should continue to propagate east/southeast this evening,
possibly reaching as far east as the I-135 corridor over south-
central KS by around midnight, although thinking the complex may
tend to diminish with time due to lack of appreciable low-level
jet. Low confidence thunderstorm forecast beyond about midnight,
with modest to low chances maintained generally anywhere along
and west of the Flint Hills within zone of weak to modest moisture
transport/warm advection underneath broad large scale ascent.
Thinking isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances will
increase by Tuesday afternoon generally along/east of I-135, in
the vicinity of weak dryline/frontal zone.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 73 97 72 99 / 30 30 20 10
Hutchinson 72 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10
Newton 72 95 71 99 / 30 30 20 10
ElDorado 73 93 71 97 / 20 30 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 74 96 73 98 / 20 20 20 10
Russell 67 92 66 100 / 40 30 10 10
Great Bend 69 93 67 100 / 40 30 10 10
Salina 72 95 68 100 / 30 30 10 10
McPherson 71 95 69 99 / 30 30 10 10
Coffeyville 71 95 74 96 / 20 30 30 10
Chanute 71 93 73 96 / 20 30 40 10
Iola 70 92 72 96 / 20 30 40 10
Parsons-KPPF 71 93 74 96 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Could
see a period of briefly gusty S-SW winds at the terminals in the
afternoon, with a few gusts to 25 kts at KALS from 19z-00z.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to adjust the forecast based on the latest radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the Kansas border and will continue to track east through 2
am. Hail to the size of dimes and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish by, or shortly
after 06z with dry weather persisting through 18Z. A few
thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain after 18Z,
persisting through 02Z/Wednesday. This activity is unlikely to
impact airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah over the
next 24 hours. Consequently, look for VFR conditions with CIGS
remaining above ILS breakpoints through the period. However,
expect winds to become breezy from the southwest during the
afternoon with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH across much of the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers have continued to re-generate over north central ND during
the last few hours, and radar suggests that trend may continue for
a while, so we increased PoPs in that area with this update cycle.
Little in the way of change was made to the rest of the forecast,
with the main challenge today determining the northwest extent of
the more solid showers and storms. Recent RAP and HRRR model runs
continue to suggest the James River valley will be favored for
heavier precipitation, with Bismarck/Mandan near the west edge of
the more solid precipitation shield.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Confidence in the forecast for today is not high with respect to
rain and thunderstorms. Great way to start the discussion, right?
Showers across the north are left over from what moved out of
Montana last night. They were pushing north but the parent short
wave was slow to exit, resulting in continued shower formation on
the south side of the activity.
A large area of rain has been over south central South Dakota all
night. The high resolution short term models brought this batch
north with the highest chances of rain from Bismarck through the
James River Valley. Radar trends have been to weaken the area of
rain and push it more east. In turn the latest hourly model runs
have still brought it into North Dakota, but farther east, with
Bismarck just getting a glancing blow. The latest trend, as of
this writing, is that the large rain area was rapidly weakening
while convection was firing on the nose of the short wave and left
front of the jet max, to the east of it. This spells uncertainty
as to just how much rain falls, and where. Looks like the James
River Valley has the highest chances.
Another fly is the dry slot, where it ends up, and the likelihood
that it will lead to thunderstorm development. And, another wave
coming through eastern Montana later with some storms possible
along the state line there.
At any rate, rain ends this evening and dry weather starts
Wednesday off before the next wave in the southwest flow comes in
later in the day.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Storms look possible later Wednesday. Then, on Thursday the ridge
builds back in with sunshine and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. A
southeast surface flow brings increasing dew points that in turn
act to increase instability. The lifting mechanism is a surface
trough coming out of Montana. This looks to bring the chance for
severe storms to the forecast area Thursday evening.
Southwest flow and wave after wave through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely today in the southern
James River valley. We are less confident in the coverage of shower
and thunderstorm activity over the rest of the west and central so
the 12 UTC TAFs mainly used VCSH and VCTS mentions except at KJMS.
Local MVFR conditions are possible when and where showers and
storms occur today. Showers and storms will diminish after 00 UTC.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
448 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 448 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at area forecast terminals over the
next 24 hours. Winds will be the bigger problem by Wednesday
afternoon with gusts over 25 mph from the west to southwest
becoming common after 1300.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Relatively tranquil conditions anticipated during the short-term
with primary meteorological challenges being temperatures and a low
potential for isolated showers/storms.
Forecast district currently graced by sunny to partly cloudy skies
in combination with afternoon temperatures running within a category
or so of mid-June climatological averages and locally gusty winds.
Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model
soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer
southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast
district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June
climatological average temperatures anticipated...especially over
portions of the southeastern Colorado plains where select locations
may challenge the century mark.
In addition, have continued with a few hours of low grade pops from
into late this afternoon into early this evening over favored higher
terrain locations. Finally, localized wind gusts exceeding 30
knots at times have also been depicted in zones/grids.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...True Summer Heat on the Way...
Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of
high pressure building over the western U.S. and Rockies this week.
Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or
exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you
will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive
ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and
possibly record levels. Many areas of the plains will top 100
degrees Thursday through Sunday, while El Paso County tops 90
degrees and many of the high mountain valleys reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s. You`ll have to climb high into the mountains, above
9,000 feet, to find more comfortable readings in the 70s or lower.
The other big impact of the mega-ridge will be to shut off the water
supply to southern Colorado through the weekend. The airmass
associated with this big, dominant feature looks very dry. While
there could be a stray, high-based, late afternoon storm over the
mountains somewhere, the overall chances for precipitation anywhere
in southern Colorado look pretty close to nil through Sunday.
Starting Sunday evening and continuing Monday and Tuesday, subtle
changes in the pattern occur. A shortwave moving through the
northern U.S. flattens the ridge over Colorado and pushes a weak
frontal boundary south to Palmer Divide region Sunday evening. The
frontal boundary lingers in this area for the next couple of days as
additional shortwaves move across the flat ridge over Colorado. This
could end up being the return of convection to the Pikes Peak
Region, and possibly to areas farther south, depending on how far
south the frontal boundary actually ends up. A tad bit too early to
call yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Generally dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions to
continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper ridging has brought warmer temperatures and drier conditions
to Colorado today with convective stunted in growth. A surface
trough over the plains is helping to bring gusty west winds across
the mountains and western plains. Look for skies to clear and
winds to diminish as the sun sets, with minimum temperatures
tonight a few degrees warmer than last night.
Look for much warmer temperatures Wednesday as 700 mb temps
increase about 4 degrees C. Will see readings in the 90s across
the plains and upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Even drier
air will advect over the area in southwest flow aloft. A surface
low will form and deepen in Wyoming which will increase southerly
winds across the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
We are entering a period of warmer and drier weather Thursday
through the weekend. An upper level ridge builds in on Thursday
bringing increasing SW flow aloft. The ridge continues to deepen
and pull in dry air on Friday and Saturday with WSW flow.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals with highs in the 90s
and upper 90s by Saturday. While snowpack continues to decrease
continued warm temperatures will keep rivers and creeks high
through the middle of the week.
Sunday night into Monday models are indicating a short wave trough
that drops down out of the Great Basin. Currently there is not
much in the way of moisture with this system but could result in
some increasing upper level clouds with a slight chance of
afternoon convection in the higher terrain. With the surface cold
front temperatures will decrease slightly with highs on Monday in
the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through Wednesday.
Westerly winds this afternoon with sustained speeds between 6-12
knots, gusts up to 20knots - stronger gusts expected closer to
the foothills such as at KBJC. Winds should diminish after sunset
and become drainage, then pick up out of the south-southeast
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
203 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Showers are having a tough time forming this afternoon under stable
and dry conditions. Expect warmer temperatures than yesterday, yet
still a few degrees below normal. The southwest gradient increases
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in windy and dry
conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to a combination of windy
conditions and low relative humidity where fuels are dry for
portions of western Colorado. H7 winds of 25 to 30 kts and H5 winds
of 30 to 40 kts will sufficiently mix down to the surface, with
temperatures also warming considerably to a few degrees above
normal. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
The tighter southwest gradient will remain in place through at least
Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains with a
low pressure trough developing over the Pacific NW. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again on Thursday so a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for the same zones of western Colorado.
Temperatures will also see quite a significant warmup with
temperatures soaring to well above normal levels. Some lower valley
temperatures could top out in the triple digits by the weekend, with
continued dry conditions offering very little in the way of
precipitation. As the high pressure center begins to retrograde to
the west towards the Four Corners region on Sunday, some moisture
will rotate around the top of the high. Precipitable water values
climb to 0.75 inches across NE Utah and NW Colorado, but due to the
dry low levels, this may not translate very well to the surface.
Therefore, thinking some high clouds may result with maybe some
isolated storms over the high terrain with gusty winds the primary
concern if anything. Temperatures will continue to be hot with the
high pressure center dominating the weather through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for portions of western Colorado for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for the same
areas for Thursday as conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little
change is expected with this pattern through Saturday. Although
winds will slacken this weekend, temperatures should rise
dramatically during the first part of next week, with highs likely
around 100 degrees F in many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Basically dry southwesterly upper flow will allow VFR conditions
to be noted over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into Wednesday
morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1057 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail over the 24 hours. A few high based
thunderstorms may develop over the high terrain between 18z and
02z today but will not impact any airports in the region.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z. Winds will be much stronger out of the
southwest on Wednesday beginning around 16z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200>203-
207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200>203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1020 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Slightly stronger winds late this morning than forecasted, have
adjusted grids and forecast to show this. Otherwise, forecast is
on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in the 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance
of a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1020 MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down today with speeds
between 10-15 knots, stronger closer to the foothills such as at
KBJC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1005 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and
evening to a Red Flag Warning for western Colorado fire weather
zones. Also, decided to include Fire Zone 292 (Montrose Area) as
soundings show 30 kt winds mixing down to the surface during the
late afternoon. Also, added a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday as
conditions look similar.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Gusty southwest surface winds and warmer temperatures with very
dry air are expected by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of
gusty winds and low relative humidities will produce critical
fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where fuels are
considered critically dry. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for portions of western
Colorado for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, added Fire
Zone 292 (Montrose Area) to the Red Flag Warning as 30 kt winds
look to mix down to the surface by late Wed afternoon. Issued a
Fire Weather Watch as well for the same areas for Thursday as
conditions look similar to Wednesday. Little change is expected
with this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken
this weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the
first part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in
many lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200-202-
203-207-290-292-294.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Upper trough has moved east and much drier air returned to our
CWA overnight. With daytime heating could have enough instability
to produce isolated afternoon-early evening thunderstorms over
mtns mainly near continental divide. H7 temps expected to rise
about 4 degrees C over yesterday, with max sfc temperatures
generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. However, these
temperatures will still be a little below normal in most areas.
With clear skies tonight expect maximum radiational cooling, with
min temperatures mostly in the 40s to mid 50s across our area.
An increasing southwest flow will occur over our area Wednesday as
the pressure gradient gets squeezed between an upper ridge
building over the plains and a Pacific trough dropping down the
west coast. This situation is still expected to generate gusty
southwest surface winds, which combined with low RH values and dry
fuels will potentially result in critical fire weather conditions
mainly at lower elevations.
Additionally, warming trend expected to continue Wednesday with
sunny skies and H7 temperatures likely to rise another 2 degrees C
higher than today.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Similar pattern as Wednesday is expected to continue Thursday and
Friday, with the persistence of potential critical fire weather
conditions. Although the pattern does not change drastically on
Saturday, strong high pressure aloft is expected to build slowly
northward and decrease the pressure gradient some by Saturday for
slightly lower surface wind velocities. Max temps Thursday
through Saturday expected to be similar as Wednesday.
The upper high is then expected to build strongly over the
southwestern states during the first part of next week, with the
high center near or just south of our southern border. This
situation should result in some of the hottest temperatures of the
year so far within our CWA, as well as persistent dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air will prevail across the area through the period, though
a few high-based thunderstorms could develop over higher terrain
after 18Z, persisting through 02Z. With the exception of some
long-traveling outflow winds, this activity is unlikely to impact
airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Surface winds will likely develop in many areas from the
southwest this afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph,
then decreasing after 02z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Still expecting gusty southwest surface winds and warmer
temperatures with very dry air by Wednesday afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low relative humidities may produce
critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado where
fuels are considered critically dry. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Wednesday afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Little change is expected with
this pattern through Saturday. Although winds will slacken this
weekend, temperatures should rise dramatically during the first
part of next week, with highs likely around 100 degrees F in many
lower valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
A warming trend through at least early next week will accelerate
melting of the high elevation snowpack. Therefore, streams and
rivers throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and
cold. Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout
the week. Keep advised on the latest river forecasts by visiting
our website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...JRP
HYDROLOGY...JRP/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Convection has shifted in KS early this morning, as upper trough
is already over eastern CO and moving quickly into the central
plains. With subsidence behind the trough and a dry west wind from
the surface up through 500 mb, expect generally clear skies today
with very sparse convective cloudiness developing over the mountains
in the afternoon. Suppose the higher peaks could see a sprinkle and
a couple lightning strikes late in the day with some shallow
residual moisture, and will keep just some very low pops in place
over a few high mountain zones. Not much cooling expected in the
wake of the upper trough, and wly downslope and building heights
suggest max temps at or a little above seasonal averages. Overnight,
any clouds will clear quickly, and with fairly dry air mass in
place, min temps should fall to seasonably cool values by early Wed
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
...Heat wave begins Wednesday and lasts at least through Sunday...
Significant stretch of hot weather looks on track as a subtropical
ridge builds northward into Texas and New Mexico over the latter
half of this week. Will see H5 heights rise to 600 DM by the weekend,
and this is usually a strong signal for 100 degree temps across the
SE CO Plains. Should see high temps a good 10 degrees above average
for the extended period. Saturday probably the warmest day as dry SW
flow is aligned with greatest thickness values over the Southern
Rockies. With very dry SW flow streaming to the NE from the Desert
Southwest into CO, POPs should also be nonexistent during this
period. Fortunately recent precip should help mitigate what
otherwise would be very high fire danger conditions. By Monday, a
frontal push should move into E CO as a shortwave trough moves
through S Canada and through the Great Lakes region. This should
knock temps down early next week, and bring a return of some showers
and storms for the E Mts and Plains, but temps still look above
average into next week. No significant relief from the heat can be
seen on the horizon, and it may take a kick-off of the SW Monsoon
to cut down this stretch of summer heat. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight. Could
see a period of briefly gusty S-SW winds at the terminals in the
afternoon, with a few gusts to 25 kts at KALS from 19z-00z.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Drier air is moving over Colorado this morning. The precipitable
water at Boulder is already down to half an inch, reflecting
the extent of the drying aloft. There could still be a few fog
patches around sunrise in low spots, but a west to southwest wind
has developed that should provide enough drying/mixing in most
places to prevent fog.
Between the drying and some warming aloft we should see quite
limited convection today. Still expecting some shallow convective
clouds to develop over the mountains, but these will mostly be
capped by warming in th 500-600 mb layer. Still a slight chance of
a few light showers or thunderstorms late in the day over the
mountains. Forecast temperatures are near guidance and look good.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Models have an upper ridge building into the CWA from the
southeast through the period, with pretty weak southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday night. The QG Omega fields show benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Thursday night. The
boundary layer winds look to be east and southeasterly in the day
times and normal drainage patterns during the nights. Models
continue to show very sparse moisture over the forecast area
through Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are in the
20s F west to lower 40s F east all four periods. The dry line is
well east of the Colorado border. The precipitable water values
are in the 0.15 to 0.55 inch range for the CWA through Thursday
night. There is some meager CAPE for late day Wednesday, but
almost none for late day Thursday. There is no measurable rainfall
on the QPF fields all four periods. It is dry, no pops. For
temperatures, Wedensday`s highs are 3-5 C warmer then today`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 0-1 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the
later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge dominating our weather. The center of the upper ridge
does shift westward Saturday through Monday. The flow aloft
becomes west-northwesterly, and there is actually a bit of upper
level moisture progged. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
normals. Even the slightest of pops are a stretch on Sunday and
Monday in the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
VFR through tonight. West winds will mix down during the day with
speeds under 12 knots.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016
Runoff from last evening`s rain in Douglas county has made it into
the downstream reservoirs. A small crest will move down the South
Platte in Weld county, resulting in rises of less than a foot.
High snowmelt streamflow is expected to decrease gradually over
the next few days despite warming temperatures as the available
snow is shrinking. The higher SNOTEL sites have lost more than
half of their snow in the last 5 days, while most of the lower
sites have melted out.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1144 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to adjust the forecast based on the latest radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
near the Kansas border and will continue to track east through 2
am. Hail to the size of dimes and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with the strongest storms. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish by, or shortly
after 06z with dry weather persisting through 18Z. A few
thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain after 18Z,
persisting through 02Z/Wednesday. This activity is unlikely to
impact airports in western Colorado and eastern Utah over the
next 24 hours. Consequently, look for VFR conditions with CIGS
remaining above ILS breakpoints through the period. However,
expect winds to become breezy from the southwest during the
afternoon with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH across much of the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some low
CIGS near 3 kft at KCOS will dissipate through 10z/Tues with VFR
conditions after that. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday
afternoon. Mozley
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
944 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest radar and model trends.
Strong to severe storms are currently moving across El Paso County
and will continue east through midnight. A few light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are developing with the incoming upper
trough and may spread east across the region overnight. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Thunderstorms are now pushing to the east and southeast, with a
quick end along the I-25 corridor as downslope flow is kicking in.
That trend will continue late this evening and overnight with the
drier and more subsident westerly flow aloft. Severe threat even
on the eastern plains decreasing quickly but still some heavy
rainers, small hail, and gusty winds. Minor flooding issues in
northeast Douglas county will abate with most stream levels going
down as rain exits. Some of the larger streams like Plum Creek and
Cherry Creek may remain elevated through morning.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Lingering rain ending through 04Z and then clearing skies expected
overnight as downslope flow develops. Any patchy fog should be
confined to low lying areas like KGXY...as KDEN, KAPA, and KBJC
see enough downslope component. VFR conditions through Tuesday
with no storm threat.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
652 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated to cancel the tornado watch for our zones. The squall line
that was over the eastern plains has cleared well into western
Kansas. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible through
the evening, especially over the Palmer Divide region, with hail
up to the size of dimes, locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Street flooding continues to be reported across Colorado Springs,
remember, turn around, don`t drown! Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
631 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Just enough heating and several boundaries helped spur on storms
across the south central metro areas and out east toward Fort
Morgan late this afternoon and into early this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft is helping train some of these storms
over the same area, creating some flooding issues, such as over
Douglas County. With the upper trough still to our west creating
lift...still expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening, as shown by all the latest model guidance as
well. The strength potential is beginning to decrease for the
storms, however cannot rule out more severe strength storms for
the next couple hours. May start need to pay attention to more
water issues as these storms start heading east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see showers and a few thunderstorms around the metro area airports
over the next few hours with a small chance through 06z. Outflow
winds to 30 knots is the main threat to the urban corridor,
mainly through 03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish
after midnight, with clearing skies through Tuesday as high
pressure pushes in. Light drainage winds overnight will turn to
the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated the forecast based on the latest trends. A squall line is
currently pushing into western Kansas with light rain filling in
behind the line across our far eastern counties. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible across the plains through
sunset with large hail and damaging winds possible. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening as an
upper level low pressure trough moves across the forecast area
from west to east. The stronger storms may produce small hail,
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain until daytime heating
subsides towards sunset, and the trough axis moves east of the
area later this evening. Drier and more stable air will quickly
put an end to any lingering showers and thunderstorms later
tonight. After today`s precipitation, and some clearing overnight,
low temperatures should be noticeably cooler than they have been
running during the previous several mornings.
Much drier air will invade on Tue as high pressure begins to
develop over the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon along the divide. Otherwise dry and warmer
conditions are expected, with highs just topping normal values.
The drier air mass will allow sufficient overnight cooling Tue
night, keeping temperatures near normal for mid June.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The flow will become more southwest on Wed as high pressure
builds over the plains states and a low pressure system
strengthens over the Pacific northwest coast. A warming and drying
trend will already be underway on Wed, and then will persist into
the weekend at least. Gusty southwest winds will mix into the
valleys Wed afternoon, and possibly on Thu afternoon as well. In
combination with the low relative humidities and dry fuels,
critical fire weather conditions may be met. See Fire Weather
Discussion below. The pattern will become less amplified through
the period as low pressure energy moves across southern Canada
and the high pressure ridge becomes southwest-to-northeast
oriented. However the high center will remain over the southern to
central Rockies through the period. As a result very dry
conditions will persist over our forecast area with temperatures
climbing to the warmest so far this year. By the weekend triple
digit highs will be seen in the lower valleys, and Grand Junction
may top 100F on Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon
and into the evening, before diminishing by around 03z. The
biggest aviation threat from thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail will also be possible. A wind
shift from southwesterly to westerly general winds will occur as a
weak cold front passes between 00z and 06z this evening. ILS
breakpoints may be reached within the strongest storms today.
Drier but breezy conditions will return Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Dry and hot southwest flow will develop across the region by
midweek. By Wed afternoon the gusty southwest winds will mix into
the valleys, mainly over eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
The combination of these gusty winds and low relative humidity may
produce critical fire weather conditions over far western Colorado
where fuels are considered critically dry. Therefor a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon and early evening
for portions of western Colorado. Breezy conditions are again
expected to develop Thu afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
increase through the week and into early next week. Highs are
expected to reach 100 plus degrees in many of the lower valleys by
the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Above normal temperatures have accelerated the melting of the high
elevation snowpack. While temperatures will be down a bit early
this week, the rate of melting is still expected to stay high. In
addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through this evening. Any precipitation will add to the
runoff in rivers and streams. Therefore, streams and rivers
throughout the region will continue to run high, fast, and cold.
Increased flows of area waterways will continue throughout the
week. Keep advised on the latest river forecast by visiting our
website at weather.gov/gjt.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-294.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...EH
HYDROLOGY...EH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active/severe
weather. Primary near/short-term meteorological issues include
pops/severe weather potential and temperatures.
Forecast district currently experiencing variable cloudiness, strong
to severe thunderstorms at times(primarily over eastern sections) and
generally below seasonal mid-June afternoon temperatures.
Strong(by mid-June standards) upper disturbance in combination
with a moist and unstable airmass is expected to support strong to
severe thunderstorms to continue over portions of the forecast
district into this evening...with severe thunderstorm potential
favoring eastern sections as projected localized capes, LI`s and
0 to 6 KM bulk shear values exceeding 2000 J/KG, -7C and 50 knots
at times. In addition, a tornado watch is in place for eastern
sections of the forecast district into this evening.
Meteorological conditions then projected to improve from later
tonight into Tuesday as upper disturbance rotates to the north and
northeast of the forecast district.
For Tuesday, anticipate more tranquil meteorological conditions
with the potential for some isolated primarily afternoon higher
terrain shower and thunderstorm activity in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures returning to the forecast
district.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across southeastern Colorado
through the upcoming weekend...
An upper level ridge will amplify across SE Colorado Wednesday with
dry moving into the area. A few weak upper level waves will move
into the region Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and weak SW flow
will only yield a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. By Thursday and Friday afternoon H7 temperatures
will be in the 18-20C range, yielding high temperatures close to
100F across the plains, with temperatures in the mid to high-80s in
high valley areas. The upper level high will remain in place through
the weekend with very warm temperatures continuing through the
weekend. At the surface the airmass will remain very dry only
yielding the potential for a few isolated showers over the highest
peaks during the Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
timeframe. Models begin to diverge towards early next week as a
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest interacts with the upper
level ridge. Lukinbeal
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across KCOS and KPUB through
the late evening until 03Z. Strong winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The first round of storms will move
through KCOS and KPUB during the 2000-2300Z timeframe. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KPUB and KCOS
between 01-03Z. By 03Z, a few showers may continue to linger, but
the threat for severe storms will have diminished. VFR conditions
will prevail at KCOS and KPUB with brief periods of MVFR and IFR
being possible near and around the strongest storms. KALS should see
primarily vfr conditions...although a weak TSRA could impact the TAF
site through the late evening.
High pressure will begin to build across the region tomorrow
afternoon with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected,
primarily across the higher terrain. KCOS could see VCTS in the late
afternoon tomorrow. Lukinbeal&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Initial wave of convection came earlier than modeled, thus did not
have enough heating and energy to have the impacts it was expected
to have. Clearing behind the wave allowed for some heating,
although not as warm as forecasted. Have decreased max
temperatures today, and this may affect how strong storms are able
to grow the rest of the afternoon. Additional convection over the
mountains are having a hard time moving off the higher terrain as
there is still some stability lingering. As the upper trough,
responsible for the lift, moves closer to the state, will continue
to see storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
High resolution models are having a tough time with the convection
this evening, but one trend that is seen is that there will be the
chance for showers and storms to continue over the area until
around midnight. Have increased the chance of precipitation this
evening for this trend. Storms will still be capable of marginal
to large hail this afternoon into this evening, with a tornado or
two possible as well...with the stronger storms still expected to
be east of the metro areas towards the Kansas border and mainly
south of I-76.
Upper ridging will build over the state Tuesday with downward QG
motion expected. Temperatures will be up to a few degrees warmer
than today, with readings near normal for this time of year. Much
drier air expected with only a few isolated showers or weak
thunderstorms expected over the northern and central mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Colorado weather will be drier and warmer through Friday with a
stronger Southwest flow aloft and high pressure aloft over the
Central Plains. Temperatures will climb above normal across the
plains with readings rebounding back into the 90s for Wednesday
through Friday. The ridge will rebuild further West near the Four
Corners by later this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may drift
into the Northeast Plains this weekend which may cool temperatures
a bit for late Saturday night and Sunday and a slight chance of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered to
numerous storms over the higher terrain continue to move northeast
at around 30 mph. Strong to severe thunderstorms are more likely
to occur east of the urban corridor over the eastern plains. The
urban corridor airports will still see a few storms through 00z,
then will still keep a chance of showers going through 06z.
Outflow winds to 30 knots, predominantly from the west or
southwest, and isolated brief mvfr ceilings under the stronger
storms are the main threats to the urban corridor, mainly through
03z. Storm/shower activity should rapidly diminish after midnight,
with clearing skies through Tuesday as high pressure pushes in.
Light drainage winds overnight will turn to the northwest Tuesday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Updated forecast to include tornado watch for eastern sections
as well as adjusted near/short-term grids/zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
...Severe storms likely on the plains today...
Upper trough over the Great Basin this morning will lift eastward
through the central Rockies today and tonight, providing large scale
upward vertical motion and aiding in convective development across
southern Colorado into this evening. At the surface, stationary
front across nern NM and the TX panhandle this morning will begin to
lift northward into Colorado as low pressure gradually spins up
around La Junta by midday. By afternoon, front will lie roughly
along the Arkansas R/Highway 50 corridor, with axis of very unstable
air along and north of the boundary as east winds keep mid 50 to low
60s dewpoints in place. Combination of high CAPE (2000 plus j/kg)
and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts suggests supercells are possible, with
threat of strong winds and very large hail, and even a couple
tornadoes, especially in the area from Pueblo/El Paso counties
eastward to the KS border. In fact, last few runs of the HRRR
suggest one or two supercells developing across ern Fremont County
19z-20z...then spreading eastward over Pueblo/El Paso counties 20z-
22z. Convection will then shift eastward across the plains this
evening, with storms ending most locations by 06z as MCS shifts into
wrn KS. Overall, everyone over the eastern mountains and southeast
plains should pay close attention to the weather today, as severe
weather watches and warnings will be possible beginning around
midday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
The upper level trof moves out of eastern Colorado Tuesday and
into the plains Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge
builds over eastern Colorado. Latest model runs show ridge axis over
the central plains with a few weak impulses moving across southern
Colorado on the southwest flow aloft. The upper level high becomes
the dominant weather feature through at least Sunday. GFS shows a
trof moving through the northern Rockies Saturday into Sunday which
would cause the ridge to flatten slightly and may allow for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms and maybe slightly cooler
temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the trof father north in Canada.
This solution would keep the hot and dry conditions going right
through the weekend.
At the surface, much drier air moves into southern Colorado on
Tuesday, with just a few showers or thunderstorms expected over the
higher elevations. The airmass remains very dry Wednesday and
Thursday, so not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with weak
upper level disturbances moving through the flow. Temperatures warm
into the 90s to around 100 and remain that warm into the weekend.
Stark
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across kcos and kpub this
afternoon. Strong winds and large hail may occur with the
strongest storms. Additional weaker storms may affect the kcos
region this evening. VFR conditions will prevail during the rest
of the time period.
Kals should see primarily vfr conditions...although a weak tsra
may affect the taf site this afternoon.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1159 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave pushing over the metro area right now. Gusty winds to
47 mph were observed earlier. This wave is expected to increase in
strength over the eastern plains. Quick clearing behind the wave will
occur after this wave passes, allowing for heating over the metro
areas to likely prep for another round of storms early in the
afternoon. The additional heating should allow for the potential
for stronger storms.
Latest hires models are keeping some activity going over the
foothills and into the metro areas tonight around 9p-midnight.
Will likely increase pops during this time to account for this.
UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
First wave of convection is pushing northeast over Park and Summit
counties this morning with a good amount of lightning observed.
Over the plains, soundings show a substantial inversion still over
the area, with some low stratus which is keeping temperatures from
warming much. The Denver area will need to get into the upper 70s
for convection to pop. Forecast thinking is for the current
convection over the high terrain to push down and help scour out
the low clouds and inversion, allowing for a quick warm-up. Still
expecting an early show over the metro areas, but the amount of
heating will determine the strength these storms are able to gain.
The threat of the larger hail and stronger winds may wait for
better heating and be found further east of the urban corridor. Best
shear and CAPE combo still looks to lie south of line from the
Palmer Divide out to Sterling. PW values will climb to over an
inch today, with values of 1.2 - 1.4 inches over the eastern
plains. Marginal hail, heavy rain and strong winds possible are
expected north of the aforementioned line, with large hail,
damaging winds and possible tornadoes to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Looking like an active day as the shortwave already producing some
storms on the Utah-Colorado border moves east into a moist and
unstable airmass. Timing is rather early, maybe a bit faster than
optimal for the Front Range cities as temperatures will be a bit
shy of convective temperature. However the jet-related lift will
already be generating storms and the resulting convergence in the
moist airmass should be sufficient for thunderstorms to develop by
midday. HRRR has been quite consistent at developing a line of
storms around noon over the mountains that passes through Denver
during the early afternoon and exits the eastern border by 7 pm.
The line is shaped by the combination of the jet streak with
faster winds further north, the ENE upslope into the Front Range,
and the shape of the mountains into an NW-SE segment from Denver
north, curving back toward the SW further south. This puts the
northern part of the line into more of a jet-and-outflow related
event where wind would be the main threat, although there is
certainly enough CAPE and shear to produce some hail as well. The
southern portion of the line would have better inflow, a better
ratio between the shear and CAPE, and a tendency toward more
easterly flow up the Arkansas valley will also give better low
level helicity. This means the threat of supercells and/or squall
line bow echo-type tornadoes is higher toward the south end of the
line, mainly south of the Palmer Divide. The operational HRRR has
been remarkable consistent for the last several runs in
generating a long-lived supercell around Canon City that tracks
into southern Lincoln county. It must be noted that the experimental
HRRR has been a bit further north with this favored area, more
toward the Palmer Divide area.
So there is certainly a damaging wind/large hail threat from the
foothills all the way across the plains, but more likely
wind/marginal hail north of Interstate 70, with a better chance of
tornadoes and very large hail further south.
There may still be enough instability for a few storms behind the
line, although the temperatures may be too cool. Shouldn`t be much
intensity left though. I sped up the end of the storms from west
to east tonight. Severe threat should be over on the western part
of the plains by late afternoon and in the northeast corner by
early evening.
At this point expect that rainfall will not create more than minor
flooding since the storms should be moving fairly quickly.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Models have weak west-southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
Tuesday through Wednesday night with an upper ridge axis to our
southeast and east. There is weak downward motion progged on the
QG Omega fields Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is weak
upward motion by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer winds look
to be downsloping/westerly on Tuesday with more normal diurnal
patterns, but weak, Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For
moisture, it is limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, certainly drier
than today will be. Dew point proggs have lower 30s F to mid 40s F
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with upper 20s F west to lower 50s F
far east on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitable water
values are mainly 0.30 inch west to 0.60 east Tuesday through
Wednesday night. CAPE is quite limited through the four periods,
with most areas having none. The QPF fields have a tiny bit of
rainfall progged late day Tuesday over the mountains, with even a
smaller area late day Wednesday. So will go with meager pops for
the mountains late day Tuesday and that`s it for the four periods.
For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs are 1-3 C warmer than today`s
highs. Wednesday`s highs are 3-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s highs.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models continue to
show an upper ridge ruling the forecast areas weather. The air
mass is dry and temperatures are above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016
Storms currently pushing northeast over the metro areas, at about
30 mph. This area of storms will likely increase in strength over
the northeast plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to move through the Denver area between 19z and 21z.
Strong winds with gusts to 50 knots, predominantly from the west
or southwest, are the main threat. A short period of IFR
visibilities in heavy rain and hail is also possible. There is
some threat of large hail. After 21z there is just a low chance of
less intense thunderstorms, with all storm activity ending by 02z.
Then, several hires model runs have been showing additional
development around 03Z to 06Z. Will add vcsh to the TAFs but may
need to look into VCTS.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad/Kriederman