Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/13/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cool conditions for mid-June are forecast for Monday
with a chance of thunderstorms mainly near/north of I-40. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of this coming weekend. Record high temperatures
look to make a return by this coming weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite shows an extensive cumulus field across most of
northern Arizona. Radar shows that storm/shower activity is
limited to western New Mexico, and has moved somewhat eastward
with time as forecast. Other shower activity is located northwest
of Las Vegas. Expect a dry remainder of the afternoon/evening
across the CWA with breezy southwest winds continuing through
sunset.

Mainly isolated thunderstorms are forecast near and north of
Interstate 40 from the early morning hours Monday through Monday
afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage possible on the Kaibab
Plateau and Black Mesa/areas near the Utah state line. This is in
association with some moisture being brought northward ahead of
the trough axis as it swings through northern Arizona late
tomorrow afternoon. A cool day for mid-June is expected tomorrow
along with breezy afternoon winds, especially in eastern Arizona.

A pronounced warming trend starts on Tuesday and continues through
the week as a strong ridge begins to build over the southwest U.S.
A trough passing well to the northwest of Arizona may still allow
for winds to become quite breezy on Wednesday afternoon along with
the warm temperatures and very dry air.

By this weekend, NAEFS climatological percentiles indicate that we
will be at least into the 90-95th percentile range for 700mb
temps/500mb heights, even higher in a few locations. This lasts
into Monday- Tuesday. Forecast temperatures have led us to issue
an Excessive Heat Watch for elevations below 4000 feet in
Yavapai/northern Gila Counties and the Grand Canyon. The watch is
valid through Monday for now, but may eventually need to be
extended in time. We`d best enjoy the cool temperatures tomorrow,
because this coming weekend will be a cooker.

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Mainly VFR conds over the next 24
hrs. A low pressure trough is forecast to swing across the region
producing Isold-Sct shra/tsra mainly N of a line from KPRC-KFGZ-KRQE
starting aft 06z tonight. Afternoon SW winds 10-20 kts G30 kts dcrsg
aft sunset tonight then SW winds 10-20 kts G30kts incrsg again aft
16z Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will taper off overnight tonight before
becoming breezy again Monday afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are also possible north of Interstate 40 Monday
afternoon and evening as a weak trough passes through the area. The
dry weather will continue Tuesday but with weaker winds.

Wednesday through Friday...Strong southwesterly winds and RH values
in the single digits to low teens will support near-critical fire
conditions Wednesday afternoon. Strong high pressure begins building
in from the east on Thursday and Friday with well-above average
temperatures, very low RH`s, and weaker winds this weekend.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening FOR AZZ006-018-037.

PUBLIC...Taylor
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TRC

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry low pressure system will move across the region through
Tuesday keeping temperatures near normal. As high pressure starts
building to our southeast, a dramatic warming trend will start on
Wednesday with near or slightly above normal temperatures through
Thursday. A large heat dome under a very strong high pressure system
will develop starting Friday and persist into next weekend with
record high temperatures for next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
A significant heat episode for next weekend is very likely and will
surely break daily records and potentially compete with past heat
events where Phoenix hit 120F. Before this heat event develops, near
or slightly below normal temperatures will be seen through the middle
of this week. Southerly flow ahead of an upper level trough off the
Southwest U.S. coast is currently bringing drying conditions to our
region as evident via water vapor imagery and a large area of blended
total precipitable water values of around 2/3 of an inch. This trough
will move through the Desert Southwest through Monday night keeping
temperatures rather mild with highs generally in a 95-102 range
across the deserts.

A high amplitude synoptic regime develops during the middle of this
week as a deep upper low becomes entrenched over the Pacific
Northwest. This will allow the ridge over the Southern Plains to
strengthen and retrograde to the west. Strong model agreement shows
500mb heights building from around 586dm on Wednesday to 592-594dm on
Friday and even as high as 600dm heights centered just south of the
Four Corners area on Sunday. Highs by Friday will likely top 110
degrees over the south-central Arizona deserts and continue to climb
into the weekend under near record heights aloft. As 850mb
temperatures climb to near 35C by Sunday, we should be seeing
widespread high temperatures of 115-120F. This could end up being a
long duration excessive heat event, but beyond next Monday model
spread increases. There are also indications of some moisture that
may advect in from from the east and heights should gradually lower
back toward 590-594dm after next Monday. Either way, there is enough
confidence to issue an Excessive Heat Watch starting Friday for the
south-central Arizona deserts spreading nearly all other areas for
next Saturday through Monday.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather aviation impacts to consider. Few-Sct CU
developing so far this afternoon over the eastern mountains but
should stay well out of the terminal area. Winds otherwise follow
their typical W/SW direction around 10-15kts for all TAF sites with
some afternoon gustiness around 20-25kts possible.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as strong high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above average (record
highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain fairly typical for mid June,
with some afternoon gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph in the usual
upslope favored locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Generally dry conditions are forecast through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
will return during the latter half of the week and especially next
weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds from Tucson east to the New Mexico
border are fairly flat today since the atmosphere has stabilized
due to the decreased moisture. Could be a stray sprinkle or wind
gust underneath these clouds near the state line but the forecast
is essentially dry.

On Monday a trough of low pressure will pass to our north. The
trough will enhance lift, but there will be even less moisture to
act on, and thus have kept the forecast for southeast AZ dry
Monday. The trough will bring increased southwest winds Monday
afternoon with gusts 30-35 mph possible, especially in Cochise
County. In addition, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees
cooler.

Daytime temperatures will then begin a warming trend into next
weekend, when longer range models indicate very hot temperatures
similar to or even warmer than what we saw June 4-6.

On the bright side, drier air will allow temperatures to drop to
more comfortable levels beginning Monday night compared to the
past few nights. This trend should hold for much of the work week,
especially east of Tucson.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/00Z. Scattered to broken clouds from 10-12k
ft msl east of KTUS with generally clear skies for the western
deserts. Skies becoming mostly clear area-wide after sunset. Surface
winds W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts, then
diminishing after sunset to less than 10 kts. W/SW winds of 10-20
kts with gusts of 25-30 kts possible. Highest wind gusts will be
near KDUG. Winds will increase again after 18z Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through next weekend. A
weather system traversing across northern Arizona will result in
below normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday. In addition, some
afternoon breezes are expected each afternoon this week. A few spots
could briefly approach critical thresholds Monday afternoon across
Southeast Cochise County. Otherwise, hotter temperatures will return
by the middle of the week, then especially by next weekend with very
well above normal temperatures and possible Haines 6 conditions.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

KD/GL

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
few thunderstorms possible near the New Mexico state line. A slight
chance of thunderstorms exists north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms were added to areas near the New Mexico
state line, mainly through 2-3 pm MST. Cumulus can be seen on
satellite in far eastern Arizona, as well as most of western New
Mexico. Moisture/instability should decrase later this afternoon
as the trough pushes east with time today.

Expect a dry and breezy afternoon across most of northern Arizona.
The strongest winds are forecast across the Coconino Plateau
northwest of Flagstaff, with a few wind gusts in excess of 35 mph
possible.

.PREV DISCUSSION /251 AM MST/...Breezy conditions are expected
across northern Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough,
currently just off the southern California coast, slowly makes its
way eastward. Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels
of the atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing
today.

Monday...As the trough swings through the region, there will be
enough moisture/instability for a few showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, mainly north
of I-40. The best chances will be along and north of a line from
the Grand Canyon to Window Rock.

Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather is expected through this
period along with a warming trend as high pressure begins to build
into the area. High temperatures will rise to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal by Friday. Additionally, breezy southwest winds may
make for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought record
temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have this ridge
in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are expecting
this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The current
forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...A drier air mass will bring mainly
VFR conds over the next 24 hrs. There will be a isold shra/tsra
mainly across portions of Apache Co. mainly along the Arizona/New
Mexico border from 18z today - 03z Monday. Afternoon SW winds 10-20
kts gusting to 30 kts dcrsg aft sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
isolated thunderstorms near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Near-
critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon over
portions of Coconino and northwest Yavapai counties. On Monday, a
few isolated showers possible along and north of Interstate 40
with the passage of a weather disturbance.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwesterly flow will dominate the
weather across Arizona with afternoon humidity values potentially
dropping into the single digits and gusty winds each day. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Taylor/Mottice
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC/McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Taylor/Mottice
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC/McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
this afternoon followed by dry condiitons Monday through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Just a bit moisture hanging on near the New Mexico
border, and what is left should be scrubbed out by southwest flow
by sunset. Could be a few cloud buildups over the higher terrain
east of Tucson this afternoon and just maybe a stray thunderstorm
over the White Mountains, so going forecast looks good.

Valley high temps in the 90s today will feel a bit better than the
past few days since the humidity will be much lower. These
temperatures are still a bit below average for June 12th. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, it will be getting hotter by
the end of the new work week.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z. Scattered clouds from 10-12k ft
msl near the New Mexico border this afternoon with slgt chc of
-shra/-tsra, otherwise SKC. Surface winds less than 10 kts...then
becoming W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Wind diminishing after sunset to less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of thunderstorms near the New Mexico
border this afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next weekend. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.

.PREV DISCUSSION...The pre-Monsoon thunderstorm action of the
past two days is coming to an end. A few storms are still possible
near the New Mexico border today otherwise drier air continues to
push in from the west over the area. Cooler than normal
temperatures today into Tuesday then a warming trend during the
second half of the work week with the furnace being turned on next
weekend. Models consistent on developing a very strong high
pressure ridge over the area next weekend with 500 mb heights
approaching 600 DM. Based on in house low level thickness value
study highs next weekend have the potential to be hotter than what
occurred earlier this month and will approach record highs on the
17th thru the 19th. Could end up being historic as some places
may end up close to not only all-time June record highs but all-
time yearly record highs. A little early for issuance of an
excessive heat watch but will be getting the message out via
social media platforms today.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
848 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Considerable drying has occurred over the past 24 hours with PWATS
falling to well below an inch. Given the drop in moisture levels
there is now little to no chance of any additional shower or
thunderstorm activity. Skies will remain clear aside from a few mid
level afternoon CU mainly focused over the south-central Arizona
higher terrain. A slow moving upper level trough currently off the
Southwest U.S. coast will move into the region tonight into Monday,
but no additional moisture will be added, so the only result will be
the continued slightly below normal temperatures. I made some minor
adjustments to sky cover to add in more areal CU coverage for this
afternoon. The rest of the forecast is on track with no other
adjustments are needed.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.

This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather impacts through Monday morning with only
Few-Sct CU developing over the mountains this afternoon. Winds
around central Arizona may obtain a cross runway southerly component
near 10kt for a few hours late this morning before veering to the
more traditional W/SW direction. A few gusts 20-25kt will be
possible, but confidence in prolonged stronger gusts is low. Across
SE CA, winds will favor a S/SW type direction though may be light
and variable on occasion.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above
average (and near record highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain
fairly typical for mid June, with some afternoon gusts approaching 20
to 25 mph in the usual upslope favored locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
309 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...Hernandez
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions are expected across northern
Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough, currently just
off the southern California coast, slowly makes its way eastward.
Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels of the
atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing today.

Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought
record temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have
this ridge in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are
expecting this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The
current forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A drier air mass will bring
mainly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area of the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Afternoon Southwest winds 10-20 kts
gusting to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the
Arizona/New Mexico border. On Monday, a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40 with the passage of a
weather disturbance. Southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range each
afternoon.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Mottice
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...The pre-Monsoon thunderstorm action of the past two
days is coming to an end. A few storms are still possible near the
New Mexico border today otherwise drier air continues to push in
from the west over the area. Cooler than normal temperatures today
into Tuesday then a warming trend during the second half of the work
week with the furnace being turned on next weekend. Models
consistent on developing a very strong high pressure ridge over the
area next weekend with 500 mb heights approaching 600 DM. Based on
in house low level thickness value study highs next weekend have the
potential to be hotter than what occurred earlier this month and
will approach record highs on the 17th thru the 19th. Could end up
being historic as some places may end up close to not only all-time
June record highs but all-time yearly record highs. A little early
for issuance of an excessive heat watch but will be getting the
message out via social media platforms today.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
Scattered clouds from 10-12k ft msl near the New Mexico border this
afternoon with slgt chc of -shra/-tsra, otherwise SKC. Surface winds
less than 10 kts...then becoming W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts. Wind diminishing after sunset to less than 10
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.

For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.

Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.

Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
Sunday followed by dry condiitons Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will remain near normal or a few degrees below normal
through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday through
Friday.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon across parts of southeast Arizona have ended late this
evening. Still looking at some debris cloudiness east of Tucson,
with clear skies elsewhere. General clearing will continue overnight
tonight, with a few cloud build ups and isolated thunderstorms near
the New Mexico border tomorrow afternoon. Current forecast handled
these trends well, so no updates expected this evening.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/06Z. Cloud decks from Tucson eastward will
range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or scattered clouds above 15k
ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning. Surface wind this afternoon
wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur
mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail
Monday through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday into next weekend.

.PREV DISCUSSION...11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting
a baggy upper trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly
flow aloft Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the
central/srn Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions
will commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into
next weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the
latter part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar
with the depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern
Arizona/ wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps
thru Tue will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter
temps will prevail Fri-Sat.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers will continue over northern
Coconino county through Saturday evening. Otherwise...dry and breezy
conditions are forecast Sunday, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A drying/warming trend will
commence Tuesday, and will continue through the end of next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly decreasing this evening...with
isolated showers expected til midnight over N. Coconin county. Grids
are in great shape, and no updates are planned at this time.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../323pm mst/...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
continue to develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino
counties where MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg.
However, weak deep layer shear is keeping this convection
disorganized and well below severe limits. This activity should
continue through the late afternoon hours, then begin to wane around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.

Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.

Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday...with southerly winds gusting to 30kts Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM/BAK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin/BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing
mostly north-to-east of the Tucson metro area this afternoon.
Various 11/12Z NWP models suggest the bulk of these showers and
thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity
during the next several hours. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east to the New Mexico border
this evening. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms then
continues late tonight into Sunday evening mainly near the New
Mexico border.

11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting a baggy upper
trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly flow aloft
Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the central/srn
Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions will
commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into next
weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the latter
part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar with the
depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern Arizona/
wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps thru Tue
will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter temps will
prevail Fri-Sat.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity nwd/ewd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight thru Sunday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to around 45
kts will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud
decks from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear
skies or scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday
morning. Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times
except near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson northward, and eastward to the New Mexico
border. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur mostly
near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.

Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend (June 19).

Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
224 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next several
days resulting in somewhat cooler weather through early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be pushed well east as drier air
moves back into the region. After several relatively comfortable
days with near normal temperatures through the middle of next week,
excessively hot weather will likely settle back into the area by the
end of next week.

.DISCUSSION...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Isolated showers and thunderstorms should only impact areas south of
the Phoenix metro through the rest of the afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to totally rule a shower or storm to briefly
affect southern portions of the metro area. Breezy southerly winds
will eventually turn westerly this evening for the Phoenix terminals
and remain westerly through much of the overnight. After midnight
the area will be under drying conditions and clearing skies. Gusty
southerly winds will affect southeast California including KBLH and
KIPL through around midnight with winds 10 kts or less thereafter.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1218 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.

.UPDATE...Convection is firing over the higher terrain of Yavapai
county and western Coconino county early this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is also developing over southern Apache
county in the vicinity of the White Mountains. Think the
convection over Yavapai/western Coconino counties will expand in
coverage this afternoon due to increasing instability.

Updated the forecast to expand scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
into the North Rim area based on current obs/trends. The remaining
weather elements are in good shape. The updated forecast has been
sent.

.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with scattered coverage over Yavapai and western
Coconino counties. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity.

Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.UPDATE...Current visible satellite imagery shows convective
clouds beginning to develop over Yavapai and western Coconino
counties. Furthermore, a mid/high level cloud deck over most of
Navajo and all of Apache counties should continue to lift north of
the region through the afternoon.

The latest high-res models prog increasing instability over
Yavapai and western Coconino counties today. Furthermore, with
dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s, think enough lift and
instability should initiate convection along the Mogollon Rim this
afternoon. Weak deep layer shear should keep convection below
severe limits.

Updated the forecast based on current obs/trends. Increased the
temporal resolution of pops in order to try and best time the
convection across northern Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast is on track. The updated products have been
sent.

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with isolated coverage in northwestern Arizona and more
scattered coverage in northeastern Arizona. On Sunday drier air
moves in ending chances for thunderstorm activity.

Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
High pressure builds in from Tuesday onward with hot and dry weather.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...11/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and several HRRR solutions
suggest that showers/tstms will develop near the Tucson metro area
eastward/southward later this morning into early this afternoon.
These cells will then move quickly nwd/newd, with the main concern
for potentially damaging wind gusts. The bulk of these showers/
tstms will end this evening.

There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity ewd/swd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight into Sunday morning. Brief wind gusts to around 45 kts
will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud decks
from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or
scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning.
Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25
kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times except near
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson east and south. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon will occur mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry
conditions will then prevail Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal into early next
week, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday into next Friday.

.PREV DISCUSSION /234 AM MST/...Precipitable water values remain
well above mid-June normals this morning with values mostly in the
1.00"-1.50" range. Water vapor imagery showed an upper level low
approaching southern CA. Drier air will start to push in from the
west as the day progresses, but enough will be around across the
eastern 2/3rds of the area for isolated valley/scattered mountains
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are forecast to
be below 1" on Sunday with a slight chance of storms relegated to
the White mountains. High temperatures this weekend will remain
several degrees below normal.

Upper level trof will push across the state on Monday providing
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and further drying of the
atmosphere.

Upper ridge strengthens over the area Tuesday through Friday
resulting in warmer daytime high temperatures.

Outside of this forecast package are likely hotter daytime
temperatures as the upper ridge continues to strengthen over the
area. Highs next weekend could rival what occurred earlier this
month.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

1121 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the mountains into Sunday. Elsewhere the
onshore flow will bring clouds...fog and drizzle into Sunday. Next
week...a warming trend will occur with fair skies inland and an
overnight coastal marine layer...clearing to the beaches by the
afternoon.

.SHORT TERM...(FRI-MON)

A weak upper level low pressure system several hundred miles
southwest of the forecast area will contine to drift northeast
into our coastal waters by Saturday afternoon. This system is
pulling up quite a bit of mid and high level clouds across the
region this evening, with some low clouds beginning to return
along the coast. A weak inverted trough with associated vorticity
lobe has also brought a considerable amount of mid and high level
clouds with some light showers over deserts of southeast
California this evening

One feature to watch tonight will be an embedded vorticity lobe
across the inner coastal waters tracking norhtward towards Ventura
and SBA counties. With some upper level difflunece, mid level
moisture, and elevated CAPE above 600 mb level, there is a very
slight chance of elevated convection with this feature (only about
10 percent probability). Would not be surprised to see a few
sprinkles tonight at the very least fall with this band of mid
level clouds. Otherwise fairly strong catalina eddy circulation
will spin up tonight, likely lifting the marine layer depth to
around 2500 feet by Saturday morning. Not sure how organized the
low clouds will be tonight due to the influx of mid and higher
level clouds, but should see low clouds fill in across many
coastal/valley areas tonight into Saturday morning, with many
coastal areas south of Point Conception remaining mostly cloudy in
the afternoon. Will also add some patchy drizzle for later tonight
into Saturday morning due to the lifting marine layer and light
southeast wind flow through the boundary layer. Even better chance
of drizzle for Saturday night/Sunday morning.

The proximity of the upper low will help to destabilie the
atmosphere over interior sections this weekend as colder air aloft
moves into the region. Model soundings showing marginal moisture
for tomorrow afternoon, but will keep slight chance of
afternoon showers/tstms going for mountains of SBA/Ventura county
mountains.

*** From previous discussion ***

The 12Z NAM was indicating some decent instability developing Sat
and Sun afternoons over the higher mtns of VTU/SBA Counties (LI
around -4 to -5 and CAPE around 600 to 800 J/kg) but moisture is
pretty limited. Even so, the presence of the upper trof/upper low
may be enough to set off an isolated afternoon and early evening
thunderstorm in this area each day. The chances of any thunderstorm
development is around 15 percent at best, so low confidence overall
in this scenario with a minimal slight chance.

As far as temps go, a cooling trend can be expected Sat and Sun,
with highs about 3 to 10 deg below normal for many areas by Sat,
then cool further to about 4 to 12 deg for Sun. Highs by Sun will
range from the 60s to lower 70s along the coast, and 70s to lower
80s in the valleys and foothills except mid to upper 80s in the
Antelope Valley. For Mon, temps will warm slightly but remain 2 to
11 deg below normal for many areas.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

The GFS and EC are in generally good agreement thru the extended
period. A weak upper ridge can be expected Tue. A broad sw flow
aloft can then be expected over srn CA for Wed thru Fri as the area
will be between an upper level ridge over the Rockies and a large
upper trof over the ern Pac.

The marine layer pattern will continue Tue and Wed with varying
amounts of low clouds and fog expected for the coast and vlys. It
looks like the extent of the low clouds may diminish some for Thu
and Fri with generally the L.A. County coast prone to the low clouds
night and morning hours. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear Tue
thru Fri. Typical June onshore flow will continue afternoon and
evening hours. There may also be some weak offshore flow night and
morning hours Thu and Fri for SLO/SBA Counties. Temps will continue
to be several degrees below normal for many areas Tue and Wed, then
warm to slightly below normal to near normal Thu, and near normal to
several degrees above normal for Fri. The warmest day overall during
the extended period will be Fri with highs in the warmest vlys and
foothills reaching the mid 80s to low 90s, except mid to upper 90s
in the Antelope Vly.

.AVIATION...11/0600Z.

At 05Z, the marine layer depth at KLAX was around 1350 feet deep.
The inversion top was around 5500feet with a temperature of 19
degrees Celsius.

North of Point Conception...There is a chance of LIFR to IFR
conditions, mainly between 08Z and 16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through at least 03Z.

South of Point Conception...Low to moderate confidence in the
current forecast. MVFR conditions are expected to spread into all
coastal and valley terminals by 10Z, or 13Z at the latest. MVFR
will likely linger across coastal and valley terminals throughout
the period. There is a chance of IFR conditions in any
drizzle/showers.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will likely linger throughout the period.
There is a 40 percent chance of VFR conditions between 19Z and
01Z. There is a 20 percent chance of IFR conditions in any
drizzle/showers. Southeast winds greater than 7 knots will
continue through 15Z. South winds greater than 10 knots are
possible between 15Z and 19Z.

KBUR...MVFR conditions will spread into KBUR by 10Z and likely
linger throughout the period. There is a 40 percent chance of VFR
conditions between 19Z and 01Z. There is a 20 percent chance of
IFR conditions in any drizzle/showers.

.MARINE...10/800 PM.

Gale warnings remain in effect tonight for zones 670 and 673.
Small craft advisory conditions are then not expected Saturday
night through Monday morning. Northwest locally generated seas
will build to around 10 feet from Piedras Blancas to San Nicolas
island tonight and then subside below 10 feet Saturday night and
build to around 10 feet Tuesday. Otherwise an active storm track
over the Southern Ocean last weekend through midweek had generated
seas within 190-220 degrees relative to Ventura. The long period
swells will build through next week. Small craft advisory for
hazardous sea conditions area not expected but extra currents and
surging along exposed south facing shores are likely. A catalina
eddy circulation will bring s to e winds of 10 to 15 knots across
the inner waters at times tonight through Sunday.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Saturday For
zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Saturday For zones
670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Saturday For
zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Sirard
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Seto/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1041 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer weather is forecast this weekend, particularly
across the northern portion of the region, as onshore winds
weaken and drier air filters into the area. A cooling trend will
then occur during the first half of next week as another upper
level trough sets up along the West Coast.

.DISCUSSION...As of 8:50 PM PDT Friday...A strong surface high
building offshore produced brisk northwest winds across our region
today which helped mix out the marine layer. The result was a
mostly sunny day across our region with occasional high clouds.
High temperatures today were slightly warmer than on Thursday and
close to seasonal norms.

High pressure offshore is forecast to build inland across Oregon
and far northern California tonight. North-to-south surface
pressure gradients are already increasing with the ACV-SFO
gradient up to 6.8 mb as of 8 pm. As high pressure continues to
build inland to our north overnight, northerly winds will increase
in the hills, mainly across the North Bay. Elevations above 1000
feet in the North Bay mountains will likely see local wind gusts
up to 35 mph by late tonight, with the strongest winds expected in
the hills of Napa County and eastern Sonoma County. Along with
these increasing winds will come lowering relative humidity
values as much drier air sweeps in from the north. The combination
of gusty winds and low relative humidity will result in increased
fire danger in the North Bay Mountains starting late tonight and
continuing through midday Sunday (see fire weather section below).

The developing dry northerly flow will result in warmer weather on
Saturday, particularly across the SF Bay Area where highs are
expected to be up to 10 degrees warmer than today. Brisk northerly
flow will mostly be confined to the northern portion of our
forecast area so areas from Monterey Bay southward will see less
robust warming tomorrow, probably no more than about five
degrees.

Northerly flow is forecast to rapidly decrease during the day
Sunday which will allow marine air to move inland more easily by
afternoon. Thus, cooling will begin on Sunday, but mostly near
the coast. Inland valleys and the hills will remain warm through
the end of the weekend.

A widespread cooling trend is forecast from Monday through the
middle of next week as an upper trough gradually deepens just off
the West Coast. Temperatures by the middle of next week are
forecast to be anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
Marine layer clouds will probably become more widespread and
persistent by Monday, but then may mix out by midweek based on the
amount of cooling forecast to occur aloft.

Both the GFS and ECMWF begin to increase temps late next week as
the upper trough starts to lift to the north. In any case,
temperatures are likely to remain below normal throughout next
week.

.AVIATION...as of 10:41 PM PDT Friday...Surprisingly the marine
layer is beginning to reform with the Fort Ord profiler showing a
marine layer around 1600 feet deep. The San Jose State Radiometer
is also showing a subsidence inversion topping off at about 1000
feet. At this point the northerly surface pressure gradient is to
great to allow stratus to advect into the San Francisco bay area.
However, stratus is already developing along the Monterey coast.
Therefore, confidence is growing for late night stratus to impact
Monterey and Salinas terminals.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to persist over the
next 24 to 36 hours. Westerly winds have decreased to around 18 kt
and are anticipated to continue to decrease to 5 to 10 kt
overnight. With the inversion present stratus will be possible
near KOAK overnight, confidence is low so haven`t put it in the
forecast.

Confidence high for KSFO.

Confidence low to moderate for KOAK.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are being reported at the
terminals this evening. However, low clouds are forming along the
coast and are anticipated to impact the terminals overnight. These
clouds will be thin and expected to quickly burn off Saturday
morning.

Confidence moderate.

.FIRE WEATHER...As of 6:55 PM PDT Friday...Surface high pressure
is forecast build inland across Oregon and far Northern California
on Friday Night. This will result in increasing northerly winds at
higher elevations by late Friday Night, particularly across the
North Bay Mountains. In addition, a much drier airmass will move
into the region by Saturday morning. Relative humidity values are
expected to drop as low as the single digits in the North Bay on
Saturday and very poor humidity recovery is expected on Saturday
Night. The combination of gusty north winds and low relative
humidity will create increased fire danger in the North Bay
Mountains by late Friday Night and Saturday Morning. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for the North Bay Mountains starting at 5
AM PDT Saturday morning. Strongest winds are expected to be over
Napa County and Eastern Sonoma County where the higher ridges and
peaks may see wind gusts up to 35 mph. Winds are forecast to
decrease Saturday afternoon and evening, but then increase once
again Saturday night into Sunday morning. The Red Flag warning is
in effect until midday Sunday.

.MARINE...as of 8:54 PM PDT Friday...A strong surface pressure
gradient will maintain gusty northerly winds across the coastal
waters tonight. Local gale force gusts will be possible...especially
south of PT. Sur. These strong winds will generate steep fresh
swell and rough sea surface conditions. Conditions will begin to
improve Saturday as the surface pressure gradient weakens.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 2 AM
GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 2 AM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry
FIRE WEATHER: Dykema

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
954 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation section.

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next several
days resulting in somewhat cooler weather than the past week. A
temporary increase in moisture will support some showers and storms
over higher terrain of central and southern Arizona overnight and
Saturday. Temperatures near the seasonal average will continue
through early next week before hotter conditions become re-
established during the latter half of the week.

.DISCUSSION...
Vort max centered over southeast CA this evening continues to track
northward. Despite the vorticity advection, only isolated weak
showers developed over southwest AZ and southeast CA earlier this
afternoon due to insufficient surface heating to break the CIN. Best
storm activity was over east-central and southeast AZ where CAPE was
better and CIN was breakable. Still ongoing activity as of this
writing over northern Gila and far northeast Maricopa County.
However, considerable CIN has kept storms out of most of the metro
area so far and that will likely be the case the rest of the night.
Held on to a low end slight chance over the lower elevations of
Maricopa County and Pinal County due to lingering CAPE and activity
over northern AZ (plus outflow from southern Gila Co.) Otherwise,
dropped PoPs elsewhere except over/near Joshua Tree National Park
close to the vort max center and where there have been lingering
echoes. Models show the vort max and convection to the east tracking
northward overnight. The dropoff in the model convection makes sense
given a southerly component to the steering flow and the fact that
things are quiet over southeast AZ. Held on to PoPs over zone 24 for
Saturday per model CAPE. Of note, both RAP and NAM12 have a batch of
CAPE that affects metro Phoenix but CIN values are a bit high.

.Previous Discussion...issued 159 pm MST/PDT...
A brief introduction to the monsoon is expected this afternoon and
this evening across the desert southwest. Latest 12z sounding from
TWC sampled a record PWAT of 1.46 inches, while SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that even higher PWATS are concentrated across southern
Pima County associated with a well- defined vort max and 700 mb
inverted trough across northern Sonora.

Widespread canopy of high clouds from this low overspread much of
southern Arizona this morning. However, clouds have dissipated as
expected across eastern Arizona and congested CU has been quick to
develop across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ. Surface
dewpoints remain exceptionally high this afternoon across the lower
deserts, generally in the mid to upper 50s and have even increased
early this afternoon. Latest ACARS soundings out of KPHX show an
exceptionally moist profile with mixing ratios exceeding 10g/kg
through 750 mb. However, a strong subsidence inversion is also
evident, which will initially act to inhibit convection across the
Phoenix area. SPC mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPEs in excess of 1000 J/kg
across SE AZ, while the aforementioned CIN is strong and prevalent
from Phoenix northwestward through the lower Colorado River.

Southeasterly steering flow around 25 kt between the Four Corners
anticyclone and the inverted trough is also quite anomalous. General
consensus among the latest CAMs is that increasing instability and
convection across SE AZ will propagate northwestward, possibly
reaching eastern portions of the Phoenix area this evening. PoPs in
the latest raw and post-processed guidance have trended upward and
the forecast was adjusted accordingly, as high as 30 to 40 percent
across portions of Pinal and southern Gila counties. Typical
inverted-V soundings suggests a high probability of strong
downdrafts. There also remains a discernible threat for outflow
boundaries producing blowing dust and the Blowing Dust Advisory
remains in effect for Pinal and southern Maricopa counties through
this evening. Models remain in good agreement that the activity will
lift northward into northern AZ later this evening.

By Saturday, flow aloft becomes much stronger from the southwest
helping remove any convective debris, but also shearing any small
shortwaves and/or more pronounced divergence fields well away from
the forecast area. The deeper southwest flow will also aid in
mechanically removing moisture from the atmospheric column, though
NAM Bufr soundings strangely still show 10 g/kg and a weakly capped
environment Saturday afternoon. Feel better mixed GFS Bufr output
closer to 6 g/kg may be more accurate forcing most (if not all)
deeper convection in an upslope regime along the Rim and White
mountains. This stronger flow regime will also restrict the ability
of any outflow boundaries from traveling appreciably far from their
origination point.

Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that modest cold core troughing will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range. By
this time, any better quality moisture will have been repositioned
downstream of southeast California and Arizona and all evidence
points to dry weather (sans high terrain locations of eastern AZ).
However, the benefit will be temperatures in a near normal range
with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Unfortunately as this
trough continues to propagate east, ridging will rebuild into the
area with H5 heights rebounding to a 588-594dm range yielding
afternoon highs back near 110F by the end of the week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Isolated weak thunderstorms will nibble at the fringes of metro
Phoenix through 06Z but are not expected to reach any of the
terminals. However, weakening outflow from distant storms will lead
to development of easterly surface winds overspreading east Valley
beginning 05Z. May see a stray sprinkle/shower through 07Z but
otherwise debris clouds will thin out overnight. Anticipate
redevelopment of some thunderstorms over higher terrain east of
Phoenix after 18Z.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Upper level disturbance will exit southeast California overnight
leaving behind clearing skies. Before then, some isolated weak
showers will linger over/near Joshua Tree National Park through 08Z.
Surface winds will continue to favor south and sotheasterly
directions but will be relatively light overnight before
strengthening during the afternoon (gusts to 20-30 kts).

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday... As high pressure begins to build back over
the region, dry air will predominate with near normal temperatures
Monday through Tuesday. Warmer than average temperatures will arrive
Wednesday and continue for the remainder of the week. Minimum
humidities in the upper single digits to mid teens Monday will fall
into the mid single digit to low teen range by Thursday and Friday
with fair overnight recovery. Winds will remain mainly on the light
side with afternoon gustiness through the forecast period, following
typical diurnal trends.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hirsch/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez/Percha

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

614 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Currently, 20Z visible and WV imagery show a modified North Pacific
Low over the Eastern Northern Plains into portions of the Upper MS
Valley. A warm boundary stretches from MN to Illinois into the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, a weak cold boundary lags behind the system
through Western Nebraska into Colorado. A lee side low is
positioned over southeast Colorado ahead of a minor lead shortwave.
A fairly well defined upper low continues to spin over the Southern
Plains.

Weak lift is making its way around the low over the Southern Plains
and has continued to support thunderstorms with instability of 2000
J/kg and weak shear of 20-25kts. Some of this energy may work into
southern portions of the forecast area, so have added some POPs
through late afternoon but don`t expect activity to persist as peak
heating subsides. Out west, the previously mentioned wave will be
working into the Northern portions of the Central Plains into
tomorrow morning and afternoon. Have actually reduced POPs near
term a bit as confidence in getting too much precip before late
morning into the afternoon on Monday is not looking as good as it
previously has. Weak forcing over the area with the bulk of
vorticity off to the north of northeastern KS leads to lower
confidence in more than slight POPs over northeast KS. Also,
confidence in MCS development overnight coming in from Nebraska
continues to be the main question as to whether storms hold together
or if any outflow ends up over the forecast area. At this time, it
looks like we could mainly be seeing any thunderstorm and showers
later in the morning into the early afternoon time frame as
additional lift comes from the slowly advancing cold front from
western Nebraska. Not expecting severe storms at this point since
lapse rates are only in the 5.5 C/km range and again shear profiles
look weak. Given the expected cloud cover, have highs less than
recent days mainly in the upper 80s. Expecting lows to be similar
tonight with no significant air mass change taking place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Main concern for the period will be thunderstorms, some strong to
severe from Monday night through Tuesday night. Monday night models
continue to point toward the development of an MCS over the western
high plains then moving east northeast across Nebraska and Kansas.
The early morning MCS will likely have an effect on where boundaries
will be located and how long clouds and any precipitation hang
around. This will likely have an affect on destabilization ahead of
the approaching cold front across northeast Kansas on Tuesday. Shear
is sufficient as well as forecast instability for storms to be
strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Main hazards
look to be damaging winds and large hail. A tornado is also possible
especially across east central Kansas where helicity is favorable.

A relatively quiet weather period is seen from Wednesday night
through Sunday. Upper level riding over the central US keeps any
chances for storms very slim, although the occasional model brings
slight chances during the afternoon some days. Overall, a pretty dry
and hot period with temperatures topping out in the 90s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Isolated TSRA has cleared the terminals tonight as the outflow
boundary has weakened to the north. VFR will prevail with light
winds and high clouds in place. Light winds and moist airmass
near sunrise will likely result in haze once again through 13Z.
Mid level clouds increase during the afternoon with a low
probability for TSRA to impact KMHK towards the end of the period.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Heller/53
AVIATION...Prieto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
413 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Mid and upper level ridge over the Midwest is heading
east with a trough approaching the Rockies. While a further wound
northern extent of the trough will stay well north over the
provinces of British Colombia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there is
a southern extent across California and northern Baja which will
move into the Desert Southwest tonight. At the surface, a low
pressure system is located over the Dakotas and Minnesota borders;
this associated with the upper level wave and a cold front
positioned for the central Dakotas to central/southwest Nebraska
and into northeast Colorado have brought showers and
thunderstorms along this frontal boundary.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Primary focus - Severe chances of thunderstorms beginning tonight
especially Monday night into Tuesday and potential/extent for the
rest of the day on Tuesday.

Outflow from a complex in Oklahoma could be the source of scattered
thunderstorm activity across northeastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas
and the Ozarks. This activity has gradually made a westward
expansion this afternoon but has not lasted very long. The main area
of focus has been over southeast Kansas. These storms have provided
brief heavy rain; showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish
around sunset if not sooner.

There is a weak impulse over the High Plains that will move
southeast from the High Plains to the Central Plains tonight which
could support showers and thunderstorms after midnight in central
Kansas. As mentioned in the synopsis section, current development
exists over northeast Colorado and western Nebraska. It is possible
for this activity to move further east into central Kansas; however,
current model reflectivity indicates everything will diminish before
arrival to this part of the state. Depending on the outflow
associated with these storms given weakened instability (<1000 J/kg
0-3km CAPE and maybe 20kts of shear), chances remain primarily west
of I-135.

As the mid and upper level dynamics further come into play, this
will add fuel for convection to start off the week. On Monday, there
are additional chances for severe storms which will start in the
High Plains with its pool of moisture, 3-4,000 J/kg of CAPE and
shear of 30-50kts. Storms could produce very large hail and strong
wind gusts. These are expected to develop in the afternoon and
evening hours over northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and western
Nebraska. There is a question where an MCS complex would track as it
could be north of the forecast area into Nebraska and extreme north
central Kansas late Monday night into early Tuesday. If the track
lines out, then the entire central portion of Kansas could be
impacted. Higher confidence is that the activity will be off to the
north.

When the trough pushes east, there could be a decent shot of severe
weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening east of the Kansas Turnpike
where instability is at a high with 30-40kts of shear and possibly
4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This could bring hail as large as golf ball size,
strong wind gusts of 60-70mph and maybe even a few tornadoes.
Current thoughts could change depending on the movement of the
system and any impact of overnight activity. All of this activity
should be out of Kansas by Wednesday morning. Despite the movement
of this system, there is not a distinct frontal boundary which
means temperatures will soar on Wednesday for the central and
western areas of the Sunflower State to around 100 degrees which
would be the first of the season.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

After the mid level trough pushes out of the area, a
ridge builds in once more. Ridge will move into follow the exiting
trough for the middle to end of the week. This will allow for
temperatures to climb to 100 degrees once more on Thursday.
Associated heat indices are expected to be 100-105 degrees for the
these days. Remember the heat safety tips including drinking
plenty of water and limiting outdoor activities primarily in the
afternoon hours. Models indicate that this ridge will maintain its
hold into the weekend despite a trough over the Canadian west
coast and Pacific Northwest attempting to break its influence.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Main aviation concern will be storms over southeast KS today.

Rich low level moisture remains in place over the area leading to
a very unstable air mass. Based on vis satellite imagery, either
subtle outflow or gravity wave from complex of storms over OK set
off the storms over southeast KS. Would not be surprised to see
additional development further west. For now will just run with
VCTS at KCNU and see how things evolve. Additional storms should
develop this afternoon over western KS/eastern CO due to upslope
processes. This activity will attempt to push east overnight, with
low confidence on how far they will make it. So for now will leave
storm mention out of forecast tonight due to lack of confidence.

Lawson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 71 91 74 93 / 30 40 40 40
Hutchinson 70 91 72 91 / 30 40 40 40
Newton 69 89 73 91 / 30 40 40 40
ElDorado 70 88 73 90 / 30 30 30 40
Winfield-KWLD 71 90 74 94 / 20 30 30 30
Russell 68 90 69 89 / 50 50 60 40
Great Bend 68 91 70 90 / 50 50 50 40
Salina 69 90 71 90 / 40 40 50 40
McPherson 69 90 72 90 / 30 40 50 40
Coffeyville 70 88 74 92 / 20 30 20 30
Chanute 70 88 73 91 / 20 30 30 40
Iola 70 88 73 91 / 20 30 30 40
Parsons-KPPF 70 88 74 91 / 20 30 20 30

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...RBL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Surface analysis indicates Cold front approximate from northern
Colorado across western Nebraska with prefrontal trough extending
south across eastern Colorado. Radar shows slow moving/back
building thunderstorms ahead of main front in our northwest CWA,
while satellite shows CU field developing into NW Kansas.

This afternoon-tonight: Convection already underway is currently
matching trends in RAP/HRRR along with high resolution convective
allowing models (ARW/NMM). RAP analysis indicated CAP already
weakening across much of our CWA with ML CIN approaching zero.
Main axis of forcing is near frontal zone, and trend should be
towards convection filling in across the west and spreading
eastward. Initially convective environment (with high DCAPE and
10kft dry adiabatic layer) will support elevated microburst
potential, and increasing CAPE associated with Tds in the 60s will
support a few stronger updrafts. Shear is on the weaker end, so
stronger storms will tend to be more pulsy in nature. Front will
transition south, aided by possible cold pool with additional
activity developing with easterly flow north of front and moderate
elevated instability through the night.

Mean flow 5-15kt will support slow storm motions will tend to be
on the slower side. There is a anomalously moist air mass in
place with PWATs already in excess of 1.5" according to RAP
analysis. Strong moist inflow towards the frontal zone will lead
to training and backbuilding of thunderstorms. With thunderstorm
activity expected to increase in coverage and slowly spread across
the region the threat for flooding warranted Flash Flood Watch
issuance through tonight.

Monday: Majority of guidance supports eastward trend in nighttime
convective activity Monday morning with a possible lull through
midday. Stronger large scale forcing associated with approaching
upper level trough will support redevelopment Monday afternoon,
with lull serving to prime atmosphere with increasing
instability through the day. As upper low moves east stalled front
will lift north with increasing veering supporting stronger shear
and potential super cell development. All modes of severe weather
will be possible Monday afternoon, with significant hail and some
tornadoes possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Monday night...ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms expected
through midnight with locally heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding generally along and north of interstate 70 where better
moisture and jet enhancement expected. Precipitable water values 1.5
to locally 2.0 inches. After midnight drier air aloft starts to move
in from the southwest bringing a decrease in precipitation potential
from southwest to northeast. Low temperatures in the mid to upper
50s in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 60s elsewhere.

Tuesday-Wednesday...may see some cumulus clouds around the area
Tuesday afternoon but with a lack of mid level moisture and weak
instability doubtful that thunderstorms can develop. Should one do
so it would be out in the Norton and Hill City areas. For Tuesday
night a few mid level clouds may move northeast across the area
otherwise clear with no precipitation expected. For Wednesday broad
upper ridge develops with much warmer/hotter temperatures expected.

High temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Low
temperatures Tuesday night in the low to mid 50s for far eastern
Colorado, mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.

High temperatures Wednesday warm about 7F to 9F at 850mb. This would
support mid 90s to around 105. GFS 2m temps and mex guidance closest
to these values and have trended toward them with advertised highs
int he mid 90s to around 101. One item that may impact temperatures
is the expected rainfall. Areas that receive quite a bit of rain may
not be able to reach full mixing potential due to the wet ground
thus be not as hot as otherwise would be expected.

Wednesday night-Friday...large upper ridge extends from northern
Mexico northeast through Kansas into parts of Canada with 850mb
temperatures supporting high temperatures in the mid 90s to around
105 once again. This is close to mex guidance as well as GFS/ECMWF
850mb temps. Have nudged readings up to account for this. Low
temperatures in the mid 50s west to mid/upper 60s east. No
precipitation expected. For Friday will be hot once again with mid
90s to low 100s likely.

Friday night-Sunday...little change in the overall pattern with
upper high pressure center over New Mexico with ridge axis extending
northeast through the northern Great Lakes. Upper trough located
over the pacific northwest. Little if any cloudiness and no
precipitation expected. After morning lows in the upper 50s to
mid 50s afternoon temperatures should safely reach the mid to
upper 90s if not higher based on 850mb temperatures Saturday. For
Sunday a little less hot with low to mid 90s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the first
6-9hr of the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity is already
developing in NE Colorado (apparent on radar) and this should
increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread eastward
towards both KGLD and KMCK. Confidence has increased enough to
fine tune mention/timing of peak thunderstorm period in the TAFs
at both terminals. A few strong/severe storms will be possible,
but this would mainly be in the evening/overnight, and it is still
too far out to include TEMPO mention.

I have less confidence in cigs/vis, as some guidance is hitting
on the very good moist return late tonight and attempting to
produce IFR cigs/LIFR vis after 09z through late Monday morning.
These lower conditions will be dependent on thunderstorms
clearing, and there is still an indication that thunderstorms may
linger near both terminals after 09z. Due to the low confidence I
kept CIGS 3000kft or higher and vis 6sm or higher. This will need
to be monitored.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>003-013>015-
027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

327 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

A weak MCV was moving across northwest Missouri this afternoon which
formed from an earlier MCS over Iowa this morning. Short term high
resolution models have been showing convection developing through
the morning and afternoon in northeast and east central Kansas.
Latest RUC soundings show a weak cap remaining in place through peak
heating. Cumulus remains rather flat across the area this afternoon
similar to previous afternoons. Upper level ridge remains in place
across the Central Plains. Tonight expect the cumulus clouds to
dissipate with the loss of heating with mostly clear skies expected.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night with low to mid 70s
common. Sunday models continue to show some mid level energy over
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. There may be enough lift in
the afternoon when atmosphere becomes uncapped for isolated
thunderstorms to develop from southeast Kansas into Arkansas and
will leave east central Kansas dry for now with model qpf
clustering to the southeast of the cwa. Highs on Sunday will be
similar to today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will again approach 100 degrees across parts of the area on Sunday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

Sunday night through Tuesday, storm chances increase for much of the
period. Late Sunday evening have gone with slight chance POPs over
southern to western portions of the area as perhaps weak forcing may
provide enough lift in a moist environment to cause a few showers
and thunderstorms. The chance remains small at this point as the
boundary layer will remain mostly capped off and a weak upper
circulation advances into southern Missouri. Late Sunday, a storm
complex develops over west central Nebraska along the nose of a LLJ
and slowly works its way southeast into the forecast area by early
morning into a less favorably sheared environment and an area of
smaller scale shortwave ridging. During the day, remnant
thunderstorm activity and an uncapped environment should lead to
mostly cloudy conditions with a few thunderstorms possible over
eastern portions of the forecast area where weak ridging will still
be influencing the area but continuing to be suppressed as larger
scale forcing advances from the west. Therefore, have left chance
POPs over western portions of the forecast area into the afternoon
on Monday.

Tuesday night, a LLJ will likely aid in the development
of thunderstorms over western KS and as storms grow upscale, another
complex may develop and begin to advance into the north central
Kansas and on into northeastern Kansas over night. Most long term
guidance is generally in better agreement but still details seem to
be in question such as exact positioning of the upper wave and
strength of the upper wave as it moves out of the Central Rockies
into the Central Plains. Previous runs have shown this wave to
actually be a closed off low and more intense but that has been
backed off at this point a bit and now the overall flow of the
southern stream energy may be a bit weaker. Regardless, a more
northerly track of the upper low seems to make sense based on
current positioning just off the SoCal region. Depending on the
actual strength of the upper trough feature, it seems to make sense
that as the overnight MCS organizes out west and moves into western
portions of the forecast area it could be sustained through the
morning into the early afternoon hours as shear profiles increase to
above 35kts, MUCAPE reaches to around 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg and mid-
level lapse rates increase to at least conditional and probably up
to around 7 C/km. Of course, some changes will likely occur between
now and Tuesday as to how much severe potential we end up with, but
at least some needed rain will likely fall over much of the area as
the long term forecast looks mainly dry after this round of precip
with possibly the exception of next Friday time frame as a
frontogenetical response sets up on the backside of the wave
previously mentioned as it transitions into a cut-off low eventually
working back into portions of the Ohio and mid MS Valley regions
before filling and transitioning into a frontal system over the East
coast region. Temps cool back a bit into the mid and upper 80s by
next weekend as more zonal flow sets up over the Northern into
Central Plains.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Short term
guidance hints at the possibility for an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon. Did not include VCTS as confidence is very low in
development, but will continue to monitor.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Baerg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

251 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

Cluster of convection continues across eastern Iowa and to the
southwest in the panhandles area of the high plains, while the
forecast area remains warm and dry. While outflow from Iowa storms
is moving to the southwest, unlikely that more than clouds will make
it this far southwest. Upper ridge continues to move eastward over
the area with weak upper low over Oklahoma and north Texas moving
very little through Sunday. End result will be high temperatures
just a degree or two warmer than Friday, and another night with lows
in the 70s. Afternoon heat indicies still hover in the upper 90s
near 100 and will be the primary concern for the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

On Sunday the models are showing the remnant mid level energy
located over southern KS. This means weak forcing may be present
within an uncapped environment. Therefore there is a small chance
for a few showers and storms during the afternoon. A cold front will
stretch from western KS into north central NE. Storms are expected
to develop along this front during the afternoon as well. This
activity will try and move southeastward towards the forecast area
Sunday night. The more robust convection appears to remain across
western KS closer to the low level jet. By early Monday morning the
cape will have decrease, but possibly still around 1000 j/kg.
Although the shear will be fairly weak so do not expect much
organization. On Monday the mid level trough still remains over the
Rockies, which will keep the fronts from moving much overnight. A
majority of the models depict precip in the area during the day,
which could be due to lingering outflow boundaries. The shortwave
trough will lift out over the plains on Tuesday, but there are still
timing differences among the models. A surface low pressure will
move across northern KS during this time frame, and a front will
approach from the west. Ahead of the front instability will be very
high, and deep layer shear increases due to the wave. Therefore
strong to severe storms will be possible on Tuesday, but the details
are still uncertain. As that system moves over the Midwest
conditions will dry out again. Towards next weekend that mid level
system cuts off somewhere near the mid MS valley, and possibly
begins to retrograde westward. This will at least provide the
area with slightly cooler temperatures during this period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

VFR continues at terminals with southerly winds increasing abv 10
kts aft 15Z. Confidence remains low and marginal for LLWS based
on latest guidance through sunrise. Current indication is a
gradual increase in speed up to 35 kts at 1000 ft.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates ridging
extending across Colorado with axis centered across our CWA. A
shortwave trough is east of our CWA. At the surface low pressure
is in place across eastern Colorado, with a secondary surface
trough axis near McCook Nebraska extending southeast through our
CWA.

This afternoon-Tonight: Weak forcing and moisture is rotating into
the rockies and has led to thunderstorm development across higher
terrain in south central Colorado. Some hi res guidance indicates
possible development and movement towards our western CWA, however
if this happens it will coincide with loss of daytime
heating/instability and confidence is low this would make it into
our CWA (particularly considering the mean storm motion and weak
flow aloft away from our CWA). Otherwise subsidence and a deep dry
air mass will preclude local thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. Relatively light winds and clear skies should
support another night of good radiational cooling, so expect
similar lows as last night (around 60F west to around 70F east).

Saturday: Upper level ridge shifts east while trough deepens in
this west. This may allow for a little more forcing to shift
eastward into our CWA, and there will be good instability in
place. Models are still indicating a very dry air mass in place,
and most guidance keeps dry conditions in place locally. Only
NMM/ARW supporting isolated thunderstorm activity Saturday
afternoon. I kept forecast dry for now, though I couldn`t rule of
a stray elevated thunderstorm. As the surface trough shifts east
and heights begin to fall, the air mass slowly "cools" over our
CWA. Temps aloft projected by guidance are very similar to was was
realized Thursday, and similar temperatures (low-mid 90s) would be
anticipated. This is a little lower than today, but still above
normal by 10-15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016

The lee surface trough that strengthens along the Front Range on
Saturday begins moving east into the forecast area Saturday night
ahead of a cold front expected to push through the forecast area
on Sunday evening. This is accompanied by the short wave a aloft
that rides up the back side of the ridge late Saturday and then
tops the ridge late Sunday as it moves through Nebraska.

While models inconsistently hint at a few showers across the
central high plains region Saturday night, most likely as a few
storms form over the higher terrain of the Raton ridge and Palmer
divide, the highest probability of thunderstorms across the area
will occur late Sunday through early Monday morning as the short
wave trough moving through Nebraska turns around the apex of the
decreasing amplitude upper ridge and moves into eastern Kansas by
Monday. Model QPF is showing some possible heavy rains over south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas Sunday night. With
southerly flow extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the central
plains with dewpoints in the middle 60s over the eastern sections
of the forecast area, don`t feel this is out of line.

On Monday night through Tuesday night, the upper trough that has
been approaching through the southwestern U.S. will lift out
across the Rockies and Central High Plains region for another
round of storms mainly from late Monday through early Tuesday with
activity diminishing by Tuesday night.

As the trough deepens into a closed low over the northern plains
and moves out of the region and the upper ridge redevelops over
the High Plains, dry and hot temperatures return to the region
during the latter portion of next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016

VFR conditions forecast over the next 24 hours. High pressure
ridge will prevent development of any showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture advection from the south lead to formation of daytime
cumulus around 5000-7000 feet after 18z. South winds will continue
through the TAF period. Am monitoring an outflow boundary over southwest
Nebraska to see if it reaches KMCK in the near-term. This would
shift winds to the northeast for a few hours. Still anticipate south
winds to strengthen tomorrow as a lee trough deepens east of the
Rocky Mountains.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are forecast through next weekend. Daytime
temperatures will remain near normal or a few degrees below normal
through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures will return during the
latter half of the week and especially next weekend. The hottest
high temperatures of 2016 are possible both Sunday and next Monday.

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trof axis to our west this morning
extended from SW Idaho to srn California will lift NE across the
state today. Precipitable water values this morning were mostly
in the 0.50"-0.75" range. There has been some mid-level cloud
development this morning around Phoenix and over SW New Mexico.
For today, expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions today
with highs cooler than Sunday. Wind also kicking up today for
afternoon breezes. Dry W-SW flow aloft Tuesday and Wednesday with
highs edging closer to normal by Wednesday.

The main forecast story will be the developing extended heat wave
starting this weekend and continuing into early next week. The 00z
runs of the GFS/ECMWF were slightly cooler on Saturday with the
hottest temperatures occuring on Sunday and next Monday. Highs on
these days are forecast to be several degrees warmer than what
occurred earlier this month. An Excessive Heat Watch for the lower
elevations has been issued for Sunday and also on Monday, even
though Monday is not part the 7-day forecast package this morning.
Decided to go this route to make it easier for dayshift since
Monday will be part of the 7-day package with the afternoon release.
Record high temperatures likely on both Sunday and Monday.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/12Z.
Few-sct 9-13k ft msl otrw clr. Sfc wind less than 10 kts this AM,
bcmg after 13/18z W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Wind
diminishing to less than 10 kts after 14/03z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF ammendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through next weekend. A
weather system moving across northern Arizona will result in below
normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday. In addition, some
afternoon breezes are expected each afternoon this week. A few spots
could briefly approach critical thresholds this afternoon across
southeast Cochise County. Otherwise, hotter temperatures will return
by the middle of the week, then especially by next weekend with very
well above normal temperatures and possible Haines 6 conditions.

.CLIMATE...Daily records are possible Sunday and next Monday as a very
strong ridge of high pressure aloft potentially brings the hottest
high temperatures of 2016 so far. Current forecast for Tucson airport
has 113 for Sunday and 112 next Monday. If the Tucson airport hits 113,
it would be the hottest temperature since July 1995. Below are the
record highs for June 19th and 20th.

June 19th June 20th
Record/Year Record/Year
Tucson Intl airport 112 /1989 110 /2005
Douglas airport 108 /1989 106 /1960
Ajo 114 /1968 115 /1968
Organ Pipe Cactus N.M. 115 /1960 115 /1960
Picacho Peak 111 /2002 112 /2008
Safford Ag Station 109 /1989 111 /1989
Sierra Vista 106 /1989 103 /1989
Willcox 108 /1989 106 /1989

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
for AZZ501>506-509.

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[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 AM MST MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler conditions today with a chance of thunderstorms,
mainly along and north of I-40. A drying and warming trend will
begin on Tuesday, peaking with record highs this coming weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms will
develop early this morning (3 AM - 5 AM MST) from around I-40
northward. The best combination of shear and upper-level
divergence/upward motion will be near the Flagstaff area through
early this morning as a jet max punches into the area from the
south (visible on water vapor imagery and current mesoanalysis).
From late this morning into this afternoon, the best chance for
showers and storms shifts to central/northern Navajo and Apache
counties as the trough moves eastward and begins to fill. Some
storms could produce gusty winds this afternoon.

Breezy southwest winds are expected this afternoon, with the
strongest winds across Navajo and Apache counties. High
temperatures will generally run 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather and warmer temperatures are
expected, along with breezy southwest winds through Thursday. The
strongest winds look to occur Wednesday afternoon and near
critical fire weather conditions are expected.

Saturday through Monday...A very strong high continues to be
forecast to build into the area, and as such, an Excessive Heat
Watch has been issued for this entire time period for areas below
4000 feet in Yavapai County and in the Grand Canyon. The GFS has a
slightly weaker high (597 DM at H5) than the ECMWF (600 DM at H5)
and is centered farther south along the Arizona/Mexico border.
The ECMWF centers the high pretty much right over central Arizona
and keeps it in place well beyond Monday, which would mean
ridiculously hot temperatures, even considering we are nearing the
end of June (generally the hottest time of year for northern
Arizona). Exactly which solution will pan out is yet to be seen,
but regardless, prepare for record breaking temperatures by this
coming weekend.

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A weak weather disturbance
will cross Arizona today. Isolated high based showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the day. Otherwise...look for
VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Afternoon southwest winds 10-
20 kts gusting to 30 kts...diminishing early this evening. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak weather disturbance will move across
Arizona today. In response, isolated high based showers and
thunderstorms will be possible primarily along and north of
Interstate 40. Otherwise, expect dry conditions the next two days
with gusty southwest winds each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Gusty southwesterly winds and relative
humidity values in the single digits to low teens will support near-
critical fire conditions Wednesday afternoon which could extend into
Thursday. Strong high pressure begins building in from the east on
Friday setting the stage for near record high temperatures,
extremely dry conditions and a Haines Index hovering around a 6 over
the weekend. Thankfully, winds should be lighter.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Watch from
Saturday morning through Monday evening FOR AZZ006-018-037.

PUBLIC...Mottice
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
945 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry low pressure system will move across the region through
Tuesday keeping temperatures near normal. As high pressure starts
building to our southeast, a warming trend will start on Wednesday
with near or slightly above normal temperatures through Thursday.
Then, very strong high pressure builds for dramatic warming starting
Friday and persisting into next weekend with record high
temperatures for next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Far less deep convection today compared to Saturday thanks to drier
air in place. The feature largely responsible for that is a southern
branch trough (centered over southern CA this evening) which advected
dry air over our forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows multiple
vort maxes within the trough including one at the bottom which will
move through our area tonight as the trough advances eastward. There
will be just enough residual low-mid tropospheric moisture and lift
to get some batches of cumulus/altocumulus tonight and Monday morning
for us but not enough for precip. Hi-res models depict scanty showers
north of our forecast area and mainly after 18Z.

Slightly below normal highs still look good for Monday followed by
slowly warming through Thursday then major warming through the
weekend.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 205 pm MST/PDT...
A significant heat episode for next weekend is very likely and will
surely break daily records and potentially compete with past heat
events where Phoenix hit 120F. Before this heat event develops, near
or slightly below normal temperatures will be seen through the middle
of this week. Southerly flow ahead of an upper level trough off the
Southwest U.S. coast is currently bringing drying conditions to our
region as evident via water vapor imagery and a large area of blended
total precipitable water values of around 2/3 of an inch. This trough
will move through the Desert Southwest through Monday night keeping
temperatures rather mild with highs generally in a 95-102 range
across the deserts.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Upper trough centered over southern California as of 04Z will advance
eastward. Anticipate pockets of cumulus/altocumulus AOA FL100 tonight
and Monday morning; also some minor strengthening of south and
southwesterly winds near and above FL050. Surface winds will continue
to weaken overnight (favoring easterly over Phoenix area after 09Z)
then strengthen again in the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts
(favoring southwesterly directions).

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

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DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
928 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...Current forecast looked on track as a trough of low
pressure passes through the region bringing slightly cooler daytime
temperatures. This lowering in high temperatures will not last very
longs as the GFS and GEFS indicate another round of excessive heat
this coming weekend. Please refer to the additional sections for
more details.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/06Z. Generally clear skies. W/SW winds of
10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts possible. Highest wind gusts will
be near KDUG. Winds will increase again after 18z Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

.PREV DISCUSSION...On Monday a trough of low pressure will pass
to our north. The trough will enhance lift, but there will be even
less moisture to act on, and thus have kept the forecast for
southeast AZ dry Monday. The trough will bring increased southwest
winds Monday afternoon with gusts 30-35 mph possible, especially in
Cochise County. In addition, high temperatures will be a couple of
degreescooler.

Daytime temperatures will then begin a warming trend into next
weekend, when longer range models indicate very hot temperatures
similar to or even warmer than what we saw June 4-6.

On the bright side, drier air will allow temperatures to drop to
more comfortable levels beginning Monday night compared to the past
few nights. This trend should hold for much of the work week,
especially east of Tucson.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
910 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler conditions are forecast for Monday with a chance
of thunderstorms, mainly north of I-40. A drying and warming trend
will begin on Tuesday, peaking with record highs later this week and
into the coming weekend.

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper low over southern California will move
into western Arizona later tonight. This low will then move eastward
through northern Arizona during the day Monday. Enough forcing and
mid-level moisture remains with this low to produce isolated
thunderstorms for about the next 24 hours, but especially from late
morning to early afternoon on Monday. Satellite imagery indicates
storms in southern Nevada this evening, supporting this idea.

In the wake of this low, much drier and stable air will move into
Arizona for the rest of the week. A persistent low off the Pacific
Northwest coast will make for breezy/windy days through at least
Wednesday. This low finally moves east later in the week, allowing a
massive ridge to build into the southwest. This ridge will bring
very warm temperatures to the area heading into next weekend.

All these trends are covered, no updates needed.

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions overnight
with sw sfc winds becmg 15-25kts after 18z Monday. Isold shra/tsra
possible during the daylight hours Monday, especially north of the
I-40 corridor. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday
morning through Monday evening FOR AZZ006-018-037.

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...TRC

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening FOR AZZ006-018-037.

PUBLIC...Taylor
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TRC

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

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DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

Daytime temperatures will then begin a warming trend into next
weekend, when longer range models indicate very hot temperatures
similar to or even warmer than what we saw June 4-6.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

KD/GL

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Taylor/Mottice
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC/McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Taylor/Mottice
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC/McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
848 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
309 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...Hernandez
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought
record temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have
this ridge in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are
expecting this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The
current forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Mottice
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly decreasing this evening...with
isolated showers expected til midnight over N. Coconin county. Grids
are in great shape, and no updates are planned at this time.

Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday...with southerly winds gusting to 30kts Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM/BAK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin/BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend (June 19).

Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
224 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1218 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
High pressure builds in from Tuesday onward with hot and dry weather.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016

There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.

Upper level trof will push across the state on Monday providing
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and further drying of the
atmosphere.

Upper ridge strengthens over the area Tuesday through Friday
resulting in warmer daytime high temperatures.

Outside of this forecast package are likely hotter daytime
temperatures as the upper ridge continues to strengthen over the
area. Highs next weekend could rival what occurred earlier this
month.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

334 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

Dry pattern of late starts to adjust through the short term as
convection off the high plains and an approaching upper system start
to drive rain chances further eastward into our area. Current
overnight convection out over the high plains is forecast to
continue to dissipate over the next several hours, but will likely
leave shortwave energy behind as it does so. Also can see showers
popping up near the KS/OK border in response to storm outflows to
the SE. Given that atmosphere is weakly capped at best, with these
features making their ways east and north, will carry slight
chances for storms this morning and increase to chances this
afternoon. Could see a break later this evening before the next
round of convection moves in from the west, and have higher
overnight chances for possible MCS for the western counties. Highs
a few degrees cooler today in the middle to upper 80s and overnight
lows again near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

Sunrise on Tuesday morning the low level jet will be centered
over central KS, and nosing into southern NE. This should be the
location for the remnants of the nocturnal MCS that forms in
western KS. The low level jet will be in the weakening phase, and
should no longer provide a focus for moisture and lift. Most of
the models show this precip trying to move into portions of
eastern KS in the late morning hours. In order for this to occur
there would have to be a cold pool strong enough to get parcels to
the LFC, or an MCV that forms overnight. The main issue with any
lingering precip and clouds will be the recovery time for
afternoon convection. This is when the mid level trough lifts out
over the plains and pushes a front/dry line through the area.

If the environment is able to recover things could play out like the
following. There will be plenty of moisture ahead of the
front/dryline with dewpoints in to lower to mid 70s. Although there
has to be enough surface heating to weaken the cap for when the
forcing arrives with the boundary. The southern most extend of the
shortwave energy passes right over the area, which should limit
the forcing somewhat. If storms form along the front/dry line the
weaker forcing should keep the coverage isolated to scattered.
Mlcape in the warm sector should be in excess of 3000 j/kg, and
the wave will provide deep layer shear around 30 to 40 kts. This
combination will support supercells capable of very large hail and
damaging wind. Despite the vertical wind profile showing more of a
straight line hodograph the extreme instability along with shear
will pose the risk for tornadoes as well. That being said any
potential outflow and or dry line bulge could provide localized
backed winds and a more favorable environment for tornadoes. The
best time for storms to develop will be between 4-7 pm, and
location will depend on the frontal position. Again, any leftover
outflows could initiate convection earlier in the day. As of now
the entire northeast KS is at risk for severe storms. Precip
should clear the area by midnight as the main system lifts into
the Midwest.

The upper ridge quickly builds back over the plains and 850 temps
soar to 25-30 C. Surface dew points will remain in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, and temperatures reach the upper 90s to near 100. This
will set the stage for heat indices in 100-107 range Wednesday
through Friday with the hottest day on Thursday. A front may try to
sneak into the area on Monday as a mid level wave over the northern
US suppresses the ridge.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

VFR prevails at terminals. Areas over southeast KS that observed
rainfall earlier may see restricted vis and ceilings lifting
northward aft 09Z, but dont believe this will reach the
terminals, however there could be MVFR fog lingering once again
just prior to sunrise. Storms develop west of sites after 00Z, and
should remain west of sites through 06Z.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

The only mesoscale model that seems to have a clue is the ARW. This
model is doing fairly well with the current MCS that is traversing across
the forecast district. As a result, heavily biased the POP arrangement
to this model. The general gist is that the current MCS will clear
the area later this morning. Additional development is possible across
southeast Colorado in association with the upslope regime. There are
a few questions though. 1) how will the surface boundaries evolve? This
will determine where the greatest tornado threat will be located. 2)
Will the atmosphere recover? With this large MCS that is moving across
right now, I question if the atmosphere can recover. Typically, the
atmosphere seemed to be "worked over" in situations like this and the
chance of severe goes down the toilet. Despite this, the ARW does show
convection moving into the southwest zones this evening. If the atmosphere
does recover, there should be enough cape and definitely enough shear
for severe. Think the main threats are hail up to 2" (that is probably
being liberal with the hail size) and 60 to 70 mph outflows. Depending
on how boundaries evolve, there may be an isolated tornado threat as
low level winds back along the boundary. In conclusion, put severe
wording along and west of Highway 83. Lastly, with all the more exciting
weather generally occurring in Colorado, there could be another MCS
rolling through across the northern zones late tonight and into Tuesday
morning. Pops have been increased significantly to depict this ARW solution.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

Hot and dry. The story with Tuesday onward, is that a strong 590 dm
ridge will build across the Great Plains. By Saturday, that ridge builds
to 599 dm across the southern Rockies. The net result is a dry forecast.
Temperatures will remain hot with 90s to start out on Tuesday and then
low 100s by Wednesday. These hot temperatures will prevail through the
rest of the long term domain. There may be isolated storms and a slight
cool down by the beginning of next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. Will have to watch and amend for convection
through the overnight, but it is on weakening trend. KGCK could see
renewed convection again tomorrow evening. Winds SE/S 5-15 kt.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 69 96 66 / 30 50 10 10
GCK 92 66 94 62 / 30 70 10 0
EHA 90 64 94 62 / 40 40 0 0
LBL 92 68 97 65 / 30 30 10 0
HYS 88 68 91 64 / 40 70 30 10
P28 92 72 97 70 / 30 30 20 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
214 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Just completed an update. Understandably models, even the high
resolution/convective allowing models, are having a hard time
resolving the chaos that is going on at this time. Western portion
of the area is seeing its second round of storms with other
activity still upstream. Very hard to get a good trend on the
coverage and timing of the storms.

Rap/ruc seem to be doing fine at this time. In general models are
showing the main thunderstorms will be in the southern half of the
area this evening. Then looks like a brief break and then roughly
centered around 09z another round of storms erupts. The current
forecast captures this especially after midnight and the
adjustments made were before midnight. Some impressive rates have
been occurring due to the very moist air mass and slow movement.
Have not had any extreme amounts yet but considering the general
trend of the models, kept the Flash Flood Watch going.

Cold pool from ongoing thunderstorms has dropped temperatures to
near the forecast lows in the western portion. So dropped the
temperatures there. Also updated the chaotic wind field with the
best performing high resolution guidance.

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016

The pattern during the extended period will have a large upper level
ridge extending from northern Mexico, northeastward over the High
Plains and into northeastern Canada. This pattern will produce
predominantly sunny skies and above normal temperatures for the
end of the week and for most of the weekend. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with some
areas reaching around 100. Overnight lows will range between the
mid 50s to the mid 60s.

Starting Sunday, the ridge looks to flatten and the upper level flow
will become more zonal north of the High Plains. This will allow a
frontal boundary to move over the Tri-State area Sunday Night/Monday
morning time frame. Producing a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday morning with cooler temperatures in the
afternoon. Highs will reach into the mid 80s to the lower 90s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Very uncertain forecast due to high resolution/convective
allowing models not handling current situation well and mesoscale
influences are greatly influencing forecast. In general the models
are split. Some redevelop a thunderstorm complex over the area in
the next 6 hours. Others move out the current convection and keep
us dry until later today. At this time am going toward the current
rainfall ending and not redeveloping until the afternoon hours.

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected until late in the period.
Some very light rain will end shortly. Thunderstorms will once
again redevelop later this afternoon. A prevailing thunderstorm
forecast and mvfr conditions were put in for the last six hours.

For Kmck...am keeping prevailing thunderstorm and mvfr conditions
for the first 3 hours. After that vfr conditions are expected
for the remainder of the period. At this time do not expect
thunderstorms to affect the taf site until near the end. So chose
to only put in vcts.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning
for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning
for NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1139 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Heller/53
AVIATION...Prieto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
930 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Moist southeasterly low-level inflow in concert with a modest
low-level jet should allow current western KS/eastern CO
convection to continue propagating southeast, possibly reaching as
far east as the I-135 corridor later tonight. However, suspect
brunt of activity will remain over western/southwest KS and
northwest OK where somewhat stronger low-level moisture transport
is targeted. Main threats will be winds up to 50 mph and brief
heavy rain. Additionally, there is a weak signal for a few
showers/thunderstorms later tonight into Monday morning over
southeast KS, associated with a meandering upper low currently
over northeast OK.

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Mid and upper level ridge over the Midwest is heading east with a
trough approaching the Rockies. While a further wound northern
extent of the trough will stay well north over the provinces of
British Colombia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there is a southern
extent across California and northern Baja which will move into
the Desert Southwest tonight. At the surface, a low pressure
system is located over the Dakotas and Minnesota borders; this
associated with the upper level wave and a cold front positioned
for the central Dakotas to central/southwest Nebraska and into
northeast Colorado have brought showers and thunderstorms along
this frontal boundary.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Primary focus - Severe chances of thunderstorms beginning tonight
especially Monday night into Tuesday and potential/extent for the
rest of the day on Tuesday.

Outflow from a complex in Oklahoma could be the source of
scattered thunderstorm activity across northeastern Oklahoma,
southeast Kansas and the Ozarks. This activity has gradually made
a westward expansion this afternoon but has not lasted very long.
The main area of focus has been over southeast Kansas. These
storms have provided brief heavy rain; showers and thunderstorms
are expected to diminish around sunset if not sooner.

There is a weak impulse over the High Plains that will move
southeast from the High Plains to the Central Plains tonight which
could support showers and thunderstorms after midnight in central
Kansas. As mentioned in the synopsis section, current development
exists over northeast Colorado and western Nebraska. It is
possible for this activity to move further east into central
Kansas; however, current model reflectivity indicates everything
will diminish before arrival to this part of the state. Depending
on the outflow associated with these storms given weakened
instability (<1000 J/kg 0-3km CAPE and maybe 20kts of shear),
chances remain primarily west of I-135.

As the mid and upper level dynamics further come into play, this
will add fuel for convection to start off the week. On Monday,
there are additional chances for severe storms which will start in
the High Plains with its pool of moisture, 3-4,000 J/kg of CAPE
and shear of 30-50kts. Storms could produce very large hail and
strong wind gusts. These are expected to develop in the afternoon
and evening hours over northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and
western Nebraska. There is a question where an MCS complex would
track as it could be north of the forecast area into Nebraska and
extreme north central Kansas late Monday night into early Tuesday.
If the track lines out, then the entire central portion of Kansas
could be impacted. Higher confidence is that the activity will be
off to the north.

When the trough pushes east, there could be a decent shot of
severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening east of the Kansas
Turnpike where instability is at a high with 30-40kts of shear and
possibly 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This could bring hail as large as
golf ball size, strong wind gusts of 60-70mph and maybe even a few
tornadoes. Current thoughts could change depending on the movement
of the system and any impact of overnight activity. All of this
activity should be out of Kansas by Wednesday morning. Despite the
movement of this system, there is not a distinct frontal boundary
which means temperatures will soar on Wednesday for the central
and western areas of the Sunflower State to around 100 degrees
which would be the first of the season.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

After the mid level trough pushes out of the area, a ridge builds
in once more. Ridge will move into follow the exiting trough for
the middle to end of the week. This will allow for temperatures to
climb to 100 degrees once more on Thursday. Associated heat
indices are expected to be 100-105 degrees for the these days.
Remember the heat safety tips including drinking plenty of water
and limiting outdoor activities primarily in the afternoon hours.
Models indicate that this ridge will maintain its hold into the
weekend despite a trough over the Canadian west coast and Pacific
Northwest attempting to break its influence.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Diurnally driven hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms have completely
dissipated across the area, with just a few-sct cumulus around
7000 ft AGL through about sunset. Otherwise, could see a few
showers/thunderstorms move into the vicinity of Russell-Great Bend
from the west late this evening and overnight. However, anticipate
vast majority of activity will remain over western Kansas.
Furthermore, diurnal cooling in concert with weak low-level moist
advection may support pockets of low clouds and/or MVFR
visibilities late tonight into early Monday, mainly over southern
and southeast Kansas. Low confidence surrounding this scenario, so
only included a scattered MVFR deck with patchy MVFR visibilities
at Wichita-Chanute, and maybe Hutchinson.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 71 91 74 93 / 20 20 30 40
Hutchinson 70 91 72 91 / 30 30 40 40
Newton 69 89 73 91 / 20 30 40 40
ElDorado 70 89 73 90 / 10 20 30 40
Winfield-KWLD 70 90 74 94 / 20 20 30 30
Russell 70 90 69 89 / 40 40 60 40
Great Bend 70 91 70 90 / 40 40 50 40
Salina 71 90 71 90 / 30 40 50 40
McPherson 70 90 72 90 / 30 40 50 40
Coffeyville 70 89 74 92 / 20 20 20 30
Chanute 69 89 73 91 / 20 20 20 40
Iola 70 89 73 91 / 10 20 20 40
Parsons-KPPF 70 89 74 91 / 20 20 20 30

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

UPDATE...ADK
SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...ADK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
813 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

High temperatures Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Low
temperatures Tuesday night in the low to mid 50s for far eastern
Colorado, mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Currently thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds affecting
the Kgld site with storms still to the west of Kmck. For Kgld...
expect the thunderstorms to continue and increase in coverage
through the evening and overnight hours, although high resolution
guidance differs on this. Through the nighttime hours expect Mvfr
conditions to prevail with the occasional improvement to Vfr.
However confidence is low after this evening to the mesoscale
influences in play. From around 13z into the early evening hours,
there should be a break before another round of thunderstorms is
expected. Am confident there will be thunderstorms in the area
however since it is not until late in the period, I just put in a
vcts mention.

For Kmck...again some uncertainty involved hear with forecast
having a high percentage of rain but nothing very close to the
site with the high resolution not very optimistic. Started out
with vcts then with prevailing thunderstorms through most of the
rest of the night. However during this time kept conditions at
Vfr. Again expect a break from the morning hours until mid
afternoon. As with Kgld chose to handle with a vcts at this time.

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
851 AM MST MON JUN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry low pressure system will continue to move across the southwest
US through Tuesday keeping temperatures near normal. As high
pressure starts to build over the Desert Southwest, a warming trend
will commence on Wednesday with slightly above normal temperatures
through Thursday. As high pressure continues to strengthen,
significant warming will persist starting Friday into next week with
potentially record high temperatures.

.DISCUSSION...
Latest streamline analysis shows a trough extending southward from NV
through the lower Colorado River Valley. Showers have developed
across northern AZ ahead of the trough. Areas of ACCAS were observed
across the Phoenix area this morning, however latest hi-res guidance
remains in good agreement that showers will remain well north of
south-central AZ. Today also looks like it will be our coolest day
for quite a while with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s
to around 100 degrees in the lower deserts. Minor adjustments were
made to the short-term temperatures. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
During the middle part of this week, a deep trough will become
rooted over the Pacific Northwest keeping a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US. Strong model agreement shows 500mb heights building
from 582-588dm on Monday to 592-594dm on Friday and peaking on Sunday
into a 598-600dm range. Some GFS ensemble members and the operational
ECMWF even show H5 heights peaking around 601-602dm on Sunday.
Additionally, the NAEFS mean ensemble continues to forecast H5
heights of 597dm on Saturday and 598dm on Sunday and Monday, with
only 2dm of standard deviation each day, which is pretty impressive.
On top of all of this, NAEFS mean heights aloft remain at or above
the 99th percentile from Saturday through Monday.

Thus, high temperatures in the lower deserts will increase from
95-103F on Wednesday to 115-120F on Sunday, only lowering in some
locations by 1 or 2F on Monday. Beyond next Monday, there is some
uncertainty due to some spread in the models, however there is some
confidence that heights will start to fall, and as a result lower the
temperatures slightly. All in all, a significant heat episode will
occur over the weekend into early next week and almost assuredly break
daily records. This event may compete with some of the all time
hottest Phoenix records, reaching 119/120F (refer to climate section
below for more information). An Excessive Heat Watch will remain in effect
Friday for south-central Arizona deserts and spreading into the
majority of our forecast area Saturday through Monday. With this
ongoing high confidence, an Excessive Heat Warning will likely be
issued within the next couple of days.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968

Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:

Rank Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995
2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950
3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990
4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on Aug 27 1981
5) 118 on several days 120 on June 24 1957

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation impacts through Tuesday morning as only Few-Sct
clouds hover over the mountains north and east of Phoenix today. For
the Phoenix terminals, confidence is moderate that sfc winds will
shift to a westerly component somewhat earlier today; and a couple
gusts 15-20 kt will be experienced this afternoon. More variable
morning winds in SE CA will become predominantly S/SW this afternoon
and evening accompanied briefly be some higher gusts.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Very strong high pressure will build back into the region later this
week resulting in unusually hot and dry weather. Temperatures will
rise substantially with near normal temperatures Wednesday
increasing to at least 10-15F above average (record highs) by
Saturday and Sunday. As a result, minimum humidity levels will
generally fall well into the single digits each afternoon while fair
overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend. Winds will remain
fairly typical for mid June, with some afternoon gusts approaching
20 to 25 mph in the usual upslope favored locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Deemer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
500 AM MST MON JUN 13 2016

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...

.DISCUSSION...
Southerly flow ahead of an upper level trough moving into the
southwest U.S. will continue to advect dry air into our forecast
area, as evident on current water vapor imagery. Although the upper
levels will remain dry, there will be enough lift and moisture in
the 850-500mb layer to get some patches of cumulus/alto-cumulus this
morning but mostly over the higher terrain in southern Gila county.
Although insufficient moisture will keep precipitation chances nonexistent
in our CWA, a majority of hi-res ensemble models are portraying
showers and possibly a thunderstorm developing in northeast Arizona
later this afternoon. As the aforestated trough continues to maneuver
over the Desert Southwest tonight into Tuesday, it will serve as a
nice "cool down" before temperatures start to approach record
breaking values this weekend.

During the middle part of this week, a deep trough will become
rooted over the Pacific Northwest keeping a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US. Strong model agreement shows 500mb heights building
from 582-588dm on Monday to 592-594dm on Friday and peaking on Sunday
into a 598-600dm range. Some GFS ensemble members and the operational
ECMWF even show H5 heights peaking around 601-602dm on Sunday.
Additionally, the NAEFS mean ensemble continues to forecast H5
heights of 597dm on Saturday and 598dm on Sunday and Monday, with
only 2dm of standard deviation each day, which is pretty impressive.
On top of all of this, NAEFS mean heights aloft remain at or above
the 99th percentile from Saturday through Monday.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968

Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time:

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Deemer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
313 AM MST MON JUN 13 2016

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:

Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.

CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer