Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/12/16
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers will continue over northern
Coconino county through Saturday evening. Otherwise...dry and breezy
conditions are forecast Sunday, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A drying/warming trend will
commence Tuesday, and will continue through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly decreasing this evening...with
isolated showers expected til midnight over N. Coconin county. Grids
are in great shape, and no updates are planned at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../323pm mst/...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
continue to develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino
counties where MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg.
However, weak deep layer shear is keeping this convection
disorganized and well below severe limits. This activity should
continue through the late afternoon hours, then begin to wane around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday...with southerly winds gusting to 30kts Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM/BAK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin/BAK
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing
mostly north-to-east of the Tucson metro area this afternoon.
Various 11/12Z NWP models suggest the bulk of these showers and
thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity
during the next several hours. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east to the New Mexico border
this evening. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms then
continues late tonight into Sunday evening mainly near the New
Mexico border.
11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting a baggy upper
trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly flow aloft
Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the central/srn
Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions will
commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into next
weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the latter
part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar with the
depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern Arizona/
wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps thru Tue
will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter temps will
prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity nwd/ewd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight thru Sunday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to around 45
kts will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud
decks from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear
skies or scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday
morning. Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times
except near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson northward, and eastward to the New Mexico
border. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur mostly
near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend (June 19).
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
224 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next several
days resulting in somewhat cooler weather through early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be pushed well east as drier air
moves back into the region. After several relatively comfortable
days with near normal temperatures through the middle of next week,
excessively hot weather will likely settle back into the area by the
end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should only impact areas south of
the Phoenix metro through the rest of the afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to totally rule a shower or storm to briefly
affect southern portions of the metro area. Breezy southerly winds
will eventually turn westerly this evening for the Phoenix terminals
and remain westerly through much of the overnight. After midnight
the area will be under drying conditions and clearing skies. Gusty
southerly winds will affect southeast California including KBLH and
KIPL through around midnight with winds 10 kts or less thereafter.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1218 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Convection is firing over the higher terrain of Yavapai
county and western Coconino county early this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is also developing over southern Apache
county in the vicinity of the White Mountains. Think the
convection over Yavapai/western Coconino counties will expand in
coverage this afternoon due to increasing instability.
Updated the forecast to expand scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
into the North Rim area based on current obs/trends. The remaining
weather elements are in good shape. The updated forecast has been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with scattered coverage over Yavapai and western
Coconino counties. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Current visible satellite imagery shows convective
clouds beginning to develop over Yavapai and western Coconino
counties. Furthermore, a mid/high level cloud deck over most of
Navajo and all of Apache counties should continue to lift north of
the region through the afternoon.
The latest high-res models prog increasing instability over
Yavapai and western Coconino counties today. Furthermore, with
dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s, think enough lift and
instability should initiate convection along the Mogollon Rim this
afternoon. Weak deep layer shear should keep convection below
severe limits.
Updated the forecast based on current obs/trends. Increased the
temporal resolution of pops in order to try and best time the
convection across northern Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast is on track. The updated products have been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with isolated coverage in northwestern Arizona and more
scattered coverage in northeastern Arizona. On Sunday drier air
moves in ending chances for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
High pressure builds in from Tuesday onward with hot and dry weather.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and several HRRR solutions
suggest that showers/tstms will develop near the Tucson metro area
eastward/southward later this morning into early this afternoon.
These cells will then move quickly nwd/newd, with the main concern
for potentially damaging wind gusts. The bulk of these showers/
tstms will end this evening.
There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity ewd/swd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight into Sunday morning. Brief wind gusts to around 45 kts
will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud decks
from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or
scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning.
Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25
kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times except near
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson east and south. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon will occur mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry
conditions will then prevail Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal into early next
week, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday into next Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /234 AM MST/...Precipitable water values remain
well above mid-June normals this morning with values mostly in the
1.00"-1.50" range. Water vapor imagery showed an upper level low
approaching southern CA. Drier air will start to push in from the
west as the day progresses, but enough will be around across the
eastern 2/3rds of the area for isolated valley/scattered mountains
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are forecast to
be below 1" on Sunday with a slight chance of storms relegated to
the White mountains. High temperatures this weekend will remain
several degrees below normal.
Upper level trof will push across the state on Monday providing
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and further drying of the
atmosphere.
Upper ridge strengthens over the area Tuesday through Friday
resulting in warmer daytime high temperatures.
Outside of this forecast package are likely hotter daytime
temperatures as the upper ridge continues to strengthen over the
area. Highs next weekend could rival what occurred earlier this
month.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
647 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend.
Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 80s and low
90s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Otherwise, expect a cold front to bring additional chances for
showers and storms late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. A
few isolated strong to severe storms are possible with this front,
though confidence at this point is low. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts for updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Showers and thunderstorms continue through the early morning,
primarily from I 69 westward. At 4 am EDT an area of showers and
storms were slowly shifting southeastward from near Lake Michigan
into Cass/Miami/Wabash county. These showers/storms are supported
by an area of decent upper level divergence, strong moisture
transport and elevated instability. Models of course are in
disagreement over the coverage of precipitation further northeast
as we head through the morning, however are consistent in showing
the area of precipitation now present shifting southeastward. Have
numerous showers and thunderstorms in these areas through early
morning, dissipating from northwest to southeast, and scattered to
isolated showers/storms possible elsewhere.
Otherwise, the forecast for this afternoon and tonight will be
tricky, with our area lodged on the eastern periphery of an upper
level ridge. Chances for precipitation this afternoon will be
dependent on the weak short wave passing through the flow aloft.
Moisture is certainly abundant this go around, with PWATs up
around 1.7 inches-which is about 150 percent of normal. Kept
fairly consistent with the previous forecast. With collocated
better moisture/weak support from 500mb shortwave and stronger
afternoon instability in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range, kept chances
for showers and storms in the east during the afternoon. As far as
severe threat goes, with limited shear-around 25 knots towards
the afternoon hours it looks to be isolated if anything. SPC has
us in a marginal risk, which is appropriate given the higher
instability that will be present.
One thing is for certain...with 850mb temps of 17-18C, high
temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s-especially in
the west/southwest where cloud cover diminishes earlier.
Flow tonight will be zonal, with a slight chance for showers and
storms, mainly north of I 80-90, associated with a weak
shortwave. Confidence in this occurring is low, however.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
We start out the long term forecast on Saturday with another weak
shortwave that gets somewhat washed out as the upper level ridge
over the plains builds. The best chances for showers and storms
would be with the sfc cold front expanding southeastward from
Michigan late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With support
from the frontal boundary, instability up to 1500-2500 J/KG, and
0-6 KM Bulk shear to 30 Kts isolated severe weather is a
possibility. SPC has areas north of US 30 in a slight risk for
severe weather, though there is low confidence given the
variability in the models. For now stuck with chance of showers
and t-storms through the late afternoon/evening hours.
Sunday will likely be dry with the cold front sagging south of our
area and surface high pressure/strong ridge building aloft.
Temperatures will be relatively cooler in the CAA behind the front,
with highs in the mid-upper 70s near Lake Michigan to the 80s
inland.
The forecast becomes fairly murky as we head into the extended
period. Monday we are again on the eastern fringes of the upper
level ridge. Low pressure to the west is forecast to lift a warm
front into the area Monday morning where it eventually becomes
stationary and lingers through Thursday. This is when the surface
low/upper level trough over WI takes a dive into our area and
lingers through Friday night. With widely varying model solutions
kept steady with the consensus blend from Monday onward-which
brings mostly chance pops into our area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Vfr conds xpcd through the pd. Current conv cluster
driving sewd alg ern edge of ll theta-e gradient and will largely
bypass KFWA terminal erly on although ern bound of stratiform rain
shield may expand far enough east yet to provide for a brief pd of
mvfr vsby restriction through abt 14Z.
Upstream convn ovr se WI conts to wkn in conjunction to wkng llj yet
xpc any lingering leftovers to fizzle nwwd of the terminal. That
leads to qn of what if anything redvlps this aftn alg tail end of
current complex aligned w/modest mass flux arising within renewed
llj. Ltl doubt conds will destabilize sigly esp invof the highway 30
corridor by lt aftn yet may be end up being capped in reflection of
upstream warming noted in 00Z KDVN raob. Will await 12Z data to see
if that scenario holds water.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM EDT FRI Jun 9 2016
A thunderstorms complex will move across northeast portions of central
Indiana this morning as a warm front over northern Indiana and Ohio
moves north into the great lakes. Hot and dry weather will occur Saturday
as a strong upper ridge of high pressure builds into the Mississippi valley.
The frontal system over the great lakes will drift south across our region
Sunday and then meander around. Thunderstorms chances will increase after
the weekend as an upper disturbance moves our way.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT FRI Jun 9 2016
Radar indicates an area of showers and thunderstorms around the Chicago area
and northwest Indiana. These thunderstorms will drift southeast across
northern Indiana and move into the northeast part of our region by day break.
Will go with likely POPS east of a Kokomo to Rushville line and chance POPS
along and east of a Lafayette to Indy line. Otherwise...it will remain
dry across the southwest half of our region this morning.
Rapid refresh model indicates numerous thunderstorms over
northeast and east central sections for a few hours this morning
and then the storms should diminish as the warm front lifts to the
northeast. Will continue slight chance POPS over the eastern half
of our region this afternoon...although confidence is low.
There will be more sun this afternoon and highs should range from the lower
90s over western sections to the middle and upper 80s east. With afternoon
sun and warm advection went a degree or two above a MOS blend on temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT FRI Jun 9 2016
Models are in generally good agreement on the main features...but there are
some differences on QPF. Will use a blend in most cases. An upper ridge of
high pressure will build our way as the warm front moves north into the
great lakes. Models indicate that we will be capped and expect mostly
clear skies through Saturday. 850 MB temperatures will rise into the
lower 20s and this will result in the hottest temperatures so far this
season with highs in the lower 90s Saturday.
The frontal system over the great lakes will drift south across our region
late Saturday night and Sunday per models as an upper trough deepens along
the New England coast. The NAM...GFS and GEMNH model shows some QPF with
this front...while EURO is mostly dry. Will go with 20-30 percent POPS over
north and central sections later Saturday night and most areas Sunday. Drier air
behind the front will spread into northern areas Sunday afternoon and over
most other areas Sunday night. Will end the thunderstorm chances upon arrival
of this drier air.
The NAM and GFS indicate some cooling over north and central sections Sunday...while
the EURO is much less. Will go with a blend with temperatures a few degrees above
a MOS blend...but not quite as warm as the EURO. Went with highs from the middle
and upper 80s northeast Sunday to the lower 90s southwest. Lows will be from
65 to 70 tonight...lower 70s Saturday night and from 60 northeast to 70 southwest
Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The long term looks active with an upper ridge breaking down as
several upper waves move southeast along it and into central
Indiana. Highs start out in the 90s on Monday but decrease a bit
thereafter as the ridge breaks down. For Monday and Monday night
PoPs in the chance category are expected in the north with only a
slight chance in the south as the ridge gets depressed from the
north. Chances for thunderstorms then continue through the rest of
the extended period and temperatures drop to the middle 80s for
much of the week before cooler air from an upper low moving across
the northern part of the country arrives to end the week. Models
show differences in timing of the aforementioned shortwaves so
nothing to key in on to designate any day as a dry one and thus
made no substantive changes to the initialization. With ample
heat and available moisture carried thunder each day.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 101200z TAF issuance/...
Issued at 621 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
An upper wave moving through along a surface front is producing
showers and thunderstorms across northern and parts of central
Indiana this morning. This activity has stayed east of the sites
thus far, but latest radar loop indicates KLAF could see a shower
or storm directly impact there during the first hour or two of the
forecast period. At KIND HRRR looks like development could bring
some restrictions to KIND from visibilities within thunderstorms
but radar loop doesn`t match this scenario as well. However
starting to see outflow boundary that could encourage more
development in this direction. Therefore will include a tempo TSRA
at KLAF but with less confidence will stick with VCTS at KIND.
Ceilings should be at or above 5 kft. After storms move out later
this morning expect conditions to remain VFR through the rest of
the period.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Warmer and more humid air will build over the region through
Saturday as a warm front lifts northeast. This front will bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into
Friday morning. Low chances for additional storms will continue
into Friday afternoon and Saturday. Lows tonight will range from
around 60 to the upper 60s. Highs Friday and Saturday will range
from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices both days will be
around 90 to the mid 90s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Widely scattered showers continue to develop over the past hour or
2 generally from Michigan City to Warsaw where earlier light rain
has allowed for rapid moistening of the column...depicted by quick
jump in dewpoints into the lower 60s. Effective warm front still
residing well southwest of the area from eastern Iowa across
central Illinois to south of Lafayette with current/past
shower/storm activity helping slow progress of the front for the
moment.
Convection has quickly developed over the last hour or so across
southern WI/northern IL on nose of modest low level jet and pocket
of 2000 j/kg of CAPE. One cell went up and became marginally
severe but quickly collapsed on itself despite somewhat favorable
shear. As these cell are dropping southeast the appear to weaken
as they move away from the pocket of better instability. This
causes concerns with regards to SE extent over time into the area.
Have to make some changes to the grids...at least through 6z and
maybe beyond to shift focus more southwest. Don`t want to get too
carried awat with everything still evolving...but HRRR has
consistently kept better chances for precip in SW areas with more
sct in nature NE. Will do best to capture trends in grids but more
updates likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain primary concern in the
short term period for tonight and Friday. Models continue to
indicate thunderstorm development this evening near a northwest to
southeast oriented warm front which will slowly lift northeast. This
boundary will be quasi stationary tonight into Friday as low level
jet increases tonight along with theta-e surge and a weak short wave
in northwest flow aloft. 12z model runs have continued prior trend
of weaker forcing tonight but still initiate convection in same
general area from WI to southern Lake Michigan. Complex expected to
roll southeast along instability gradient near sfc front. Elevated
instability is weaker as are mid level lapse rates. Better
thermodynamics now arrive later tonight which will keep storms more
in check. Still enough instability and modest 0-3km bulk shear of 25
to 30 knots to support a few strong storms and possibly a low end
isolated severe storm...mainly in the northwest. Hail will be
primary hazard and locally heavy rain possible with pwats increasing
to over 1.5 inches but storms should be progressive. Rather stout
low level inversion seen on soundings should limit wind gusts.
Thunderstorms may linger in the east Friday morning before exiting
the local area. Cloud debris likely early but should see sun mid to
late morning with strong heating in the afternoon. Atmosphere looks
capped with mid level heights rising. Cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms with any weak short wave but best chance per hires
models appears to be in the east on fringe of increasing heights and
thermal bubble. Still a low chance. High temps expected to recover
to around 90 in the west and middle 80s east. Dew points will be on
the rise...especially if we get decent rainfall tonight.
This will make it feel much more humid than recent days.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Another convective complex looks likely Friday night along warm
front which will have lifted north of our area. Depending on
evolution this could clip our northern counties late Friday night.
Residual cloud cover remains a concern for Saturday impacting high
temps and degree of destabilization. We remain on edge of mid level
plains ridge and expect subsidence and drier air to our west to help
keep western areas mostly clear and eventually erode any remaining
cloud cover central. Temps still expected to soar into lower and
even mid 90s west with full sun. Eastern areas remain more in
question and stayed a bit conservative there with high temps...still
reaching upper 80s. Afternoon CAPE to approach 2500-3000 j/kg but
shear remains rather poor with just 15 to 20 knots and no strong
signal for forcing. There are some hints at a pre-frontal trough
dropping south out of decaying MCS that depending on timing could
set off some storms in the afternoon. Given degree of instability
present...strong and isolated severe storms are possible
conditional on trigger as seen in 4km NAM.
Main synoptic cold front sags through Saturday night. Slightly
cooler air to filter in...especially northeast. This front to mainly
scour out low level moisture leaving dry but seasonably warm
conditions for Sunday and Monday as mid level ridge builds in.
Models then hinting toward a rex block pattern with upper low
developing over the plains underneath ridge. This occurring as very
strong low pressure stalls over Newfoundland. Plains low then drifts
toward our area with another quasi stationary boundary situated west
to east. This to provide additional tsra chances through much of
next week. Models tend to perform poorly with these weak cutoff lows
in the warm season so confidence low in the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Vfr conds xpcd going fwd. Hwvr expanding conv cluster
alg nose of focused into se WI/far ne IL attm xpcd to shift ewd erly
this morning and overspread the terminals w/a pd of mvfr restriction
in tsra likely. While any sense of consensus amg CAMs solutions is
certainly lacking...extrapolation of current activity bridges
loosely w/latest HRRR and spc 4km wrf both of which were used for
timing.
Otrws aftn pd presents somewhat of a dichotomy as much of the nr
term solution scope dvlps a fairly unstable airmass yet do not
redvlp storms invof of stationary fntl zone which will no doubt be
outflw augmented/anchored somewhat by erly morning activity. Will
forego a mention at this point but cont to monitor morning conv
evolution and nr term guidance trends.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
A weak MCV was moving across northwest Missouri this afternoon which
formed from an earlier MCS over Iowa this morning. Short term high
resolution models have been showing convection developing through
the morning and afternoon in northeast and east central Kansas.
Latest RUC soundings show a weak cap remaining in place through peak
heating. Cumulus remains rather flat across the area this afternoon
similar to previous afternoons. Upper level ridge remains in place
across the Central Plains. Tonight expect the cumulus clouds to
dissipate with the loss of heating with mostly clear skies expected.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night with low to mid 70s
common. Sunday models continue to show some mid level energy over
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. There may be enough lift in
the afternoon when atmosphere becomes uncapped for isolated
thunderstorms to develop from southeast Kansas into Arkansas and
will leave east central Kansas dry for now with model qpf
clustering to the southeast of the cwa. Highs on Sunday will be
similar to today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will again approach 100 degrees across parts of the area on Sunday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
Sunday night through Tuesday, storm chances increase for much of the
period. Late Sunday evening have gone with slight chance POPs over
southern to western portions of the area as perhaps weak forcing may
provide enough lift in a moist environment to cause a few showers
and thunderstorms. The chance remains small at this point as the
boundary layer will remain mostly capped off and a weak upper
circulation advances into southern Missouri. Late Sunday, a storm
complex develops over west central Nebraska along the nose of a LLJ
and slowly works its way southeast into the forecast area by early
morning into a less favorably sheared environment and an area of
smaller scale shortwave ridging. During the day, remnant
thunderstorm activity and an uncapped environment should lead to
mostly cloudy conditions with a few thunderstorms possible over
eastern portions of the forecast area where weak ridging will still
be influencing the area but continuing to be suppressed as larger
scale forcing advances from the west. Therefore, have left chance
POPs over western portions of the forecast area into the afternoon
on Monday.
Tuesday night, a LLJ will likely aid in the development
of thunderstorms over western KS and as storms grow upscale, another
complex may develop and begin to advance into the north central
Kansas and on into northeastern Kansas over night. Most long term
guidance is generally in better agreement but still details seem to
be in question such as exact positioning of the upper wave and
strength of the upper wave as it moves out of the Central Rockies
into the Central Plains. Previous runs have shown this wave to
actually be a closed off low and more intense but that has been
backed off at this point a bit and now the overall flow of the
southern stream energy may be a bit weaker. Regardless, a more
northerly track of the upper low seems to make sense based on
current positioning just off the SoCal region. Depending on the
actual strength of the upper trough feature, it seems to make sense
that as the overnight MCS organizes out west and moves into western
portions of the forecast area it could be sustained through the
morning into the early afternoon hours as shear profiles increase to
above 35kts, MUCAPE reaches to around 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg and mid-
level lapse rates increase to at least conditional and probably up
to around 7 C/km. Of course, some changes will likely occur between
now and Tuesday as to how much severe potential we end up with, but
at least some needed rain will likely fall over much of the area as
the long term forecast looks mainly dry after this round of precip
with possibly the exception of next Friday time frame as a
frontogenetical response sets up on the backside of the wave
previously mentioned as it transitions into a cut-off low eventually
working back into portions of the Ohio and mid MS Valley regions
before filling and transitioning into a frontal system over the East
coast region. Temps cool back a bit into the mid and upper 80s by
next weekend as more zonal flow sets up over the Northern into
Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
VFR continues through forecast period. Clouds expected to increase
late afternoon Sunday with winds backing to the south southeast at
or just below 10 kts.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
Upper level ridge continues across the Central Plains this
afternoon. Weak upper trough was filling across central and
northeast Kansas this morning. Surface trough continues across the
western high plains with axis of mid to upper 60s dewpoints across
central and eastern Kansas. Afternoon cumulus has developed across
the area and should be on the decrease toward sunset with the loss
of heating. With little change in airmass since yesterday expect
low temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s overnight. On
Saturday, 850 mb temperatures warm a degree or two from today.
Forecast soundings suggest mixing down from around 850 mb with
highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon dew points in the
upper 60s to around 70 will yield heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees in the afternoon. With no forcing aloft or at
the surface and soundings showing weak cap remaining in place
Saturday afternoon, will keep the forecast dry.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
Last part of the weekend should remain dry and very warm with high
temps still in the 90s and heat indices into the mid to upper 90s.
Precip chances increase into Monday as and overnight complex of
storms appears to form over west central Nebraska and slowly make
its way near or into East Central Kansas by early morning. It will
be pushed along by a weak boundary and without significant forcing
aloft, the trend based on 12Z model data will be to decrease in
intensity and whatever rain and thunderstorms are left. Storms may
linger into the morning and early afternoon over the forecast area,
so have maintained chance POPs over most of the area. It isn`t until
the Tuesday time frame and overnight Wednesday that a tight compact
upper low forms and undergoes cyclogenesis as split southern stream
flow aloft ejects out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Best
indication at this time is that the forcing aloft will increase over
western and northern portions of the forecast area giving the best
chance to strong to perhaps severe storms. With indications that
there will be a remnant EML in place, there could be more isolated
activity. But with the upper low deepening quickly, steep lapse
rates aloft with favorable shear, due to the upper low, could result
in mostly a severe hail and wind threat. Again, still not highly
confident in the overall set up or other forcing mechanisms such as
a possible modified dryline mixing into the area. Also, guidance
does vary too much at this time to be on the high end chance POPs.
Rest of the week after this does look dry once again with perhaps
slight chance POPs as the upper low essentially becomes cut off from
the upper flow aloft and eventually fills over the Ohio River
Valley. Meanwhile temps cool back to the mid to upper 80s by the
end of the week as northeast flow sets up with surface high
pressure in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
remain gusty through the afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots. Winds
will increase by mid-morning tomorrow with sustained at 10-15
knots and a few gusts up to 20 knots at MHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
KDDC WSR-88D shows some thunderstorms early this morning across the
southern zones. This activity was at the base of a very weak 500-hPa
trof. This activity will diminish quickly through the early morning
hours. The next shot at thunderstorms comes this afternoon and evening.
Have low confidence in storms developing, since the main wave will be
mainly to the E/SE. Have very low pops SE of a line from Elkhart to
Liebenthal. The ARW and 4 km NAM do break out storms (in different locations
though), while the NMMB is mostly dry. Again, only went with 15-20 pops.
Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, highs today will be in the
90s with lows in the 60s to around 70 for Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The forecast is dry through early Sunday. Decided to take out pops Saturday
evening as not seeing a whole lot of opportunity for convection with
a 590 dm high overhead. Pops do ramp up quickly late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. A synoptic trof will begin to influence our region with
dynamics aloft and low level lift along surface boundaries. Tuesday
looks the most interesting per the ECMWF. The GFS was not used as the
trof looks too progressive. It`s summer and systems move slow typically
versus what the GFS indicates. The EC paints a severe weather picture
Tuesday evening with 40-50 kt of bulk shear, 3000 J/kg of CAPE and
a warm front. Very large hail would be a concern if supercells develop.
In addition, conceptually, warm front isolated tornadoes could be possible
as well if you take the model verbatim. All these small scale details
will be hammered out in future runs, but last nights 00Z EC run looked
interesting for Tuesday evening as well (in terms of a ramp up of significant
severe weather across the Kansas prairie). Otherwise, temps through
the extended will be Summer-like with highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
VFR category is expected during the course of this TAF peiod. There
is a general lack of convergence and source of lift for any
convection. Wind shear profiles support a period of boundary layer
wind shear in central KS, and is indicated in the HYS TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 94 69 94 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 68 94 69 95 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 66 92 66 95 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 69 93 68 94 / 20 10 10 20
HYS 70 94 69 93 / 10 10 10 20
P28 70 93 71 94 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
120 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates ridging
extending across Colorado with axis centered across our CWA. A
shortwave trough is east of our CWA. At the surface low pressure
is in place across eastern Colorado, with a secondary surface
trough axis near McCook Nebraska extending southeast through our
CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: Weak forcing and moisture is rotating into
the rockies and has led to thunderstorm development across higher
terrain in south central Colorado. Some hi res guidance indicates
possible development and movement towards our western CWA, however
if this happens it will coincide with loss of daytime
heating/instability and confidence is low this would make it into
our CWA (particularly considering the mean storm motion and weak
flow aloft away from our CWA). Otherwise subsidence and a deep dry
air mass will preclude local thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. Relatively light winds and clear skies should
support another night of good radiational cooling, so expect
similar lows as last night (around 60F west to around 70F east).
Saturday: Upper level ridge shifts east while trough deepens in
this west. This may allow for a little more forcing to shift
eastward into our CWA, and there will be good instability in
place. Models are still indicating a very dry air mass in place,
and most guidance keeps dry conditions in place locally. Only
NMM/ARW supporting isolated thunderstorm activity Saturday
afternoon. I kept forecast dry for now, though I couldn`t rule of
a stray elevated thunderstorm. As the surface trough shifts east
and heights begin to fall, the air mass slowly "cools" over our
CWA. Temps aloft projected by guidance are very similar to was was
realized Thursday, and similar temperatures (low-mid 90s) would be
anticipated. This is a little lower than today, but still above
normal by 10-15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday
Issued at 218 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Temperatures on Monday will be a little bit cooler, but still
remain slightly above normal as highs will reach into the middle
to upper 80s. There will be a chance of precipitation on Monday
and Tuesday as an area of low pressure, over the southwest U.S.,
looks to lifts out across the Rockies and Central High Plains as
an open wave with a surface trough/front and pass over the
forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler, lower to
mid 80s, as a result.
The rest of the week, expect dry and hot conditions to return to
the Tri-State area as high pressure looks to influence the
Central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK. Surface trough will remain in place near the CO state line
with weak southerly gradient leading to winds below 12kt through
the first 12hr of the TAF period. Gradient begins to increase by
late morning Saturday, with gusts 20-30kt developing at KGLD at
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
257 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
Southerly winds have helped keep overnight lows up into the middle
70s, although should still fall another few degrees before sunrise.
With a warm start and mid level temps similar to yesterdays numbers,
anticipating highs similar to Thursday with low to middle 90s from
SE to NW. However dewpoints rise into the middle/upper 60s by the
afternoon hours, and bump heat indicies into the middle/upper 90s.
Weak upper trof out over the high plains on Thursday advances
slightly eastward, but still not quite far enough east with the lift
or to break the cap and bring precipitation into our area. For now
only have an increase in cloud cover and will watch for
progression.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
On Saturday the upper ridge will be centered over the central US,
while a remnant shortwave meanders close to the forecast area. At
the moment the models depict this wave will be located east of the
area as it rotates around the center of the high to the north. Most
of the precipitation associated with this wave will occur over the
Ozarks. Temperatures will not changed much with highs is the lower
to mid 90s, and heat indices close to 100. On Sunday the upper high
will begin to shift eastward over the Midwest. Meanwhile the
longwave trough will progress into the Rockies. The models are
keeping most of the area dry with not much forcing in place. Sunday
evening a front over western NE will support the development of a
storm complex that may progress along or near the KS/NE state line
overnight. If this complex of storms moves across the area Monday
morning clouds and lingering precip will effect the outcome for the
afternoon. The models begin to disagree on how to handle the front,
which is fairly weak, and show a shortwave trough lifting out over
the plains Monday or Tuesday. There is uncertainty regarding any
remnant outflows and or frontal positions. Ultimately cyclogenesis
will support a surface low pressure to move across western and
central KS either Monday or Tuesday due to timing differences.
Instability could be very high ahead of this system, and the deep
layer shear will increase due to the wave. By Thursday the shortwave
will cut off from the main flow and meander somewhere over the MS
valley. Precipitation from this wave could affect the area, but
models will likely struggle with this cut off system so uncertainty
is high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Some models still suggest that there may be a slight chance for
some marginal LLWS overnight, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect the
southerly winds to increase once again by late Friday morning,
with gusts around 20kts through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
KDDC WSR-88D shows some thunderstorms early this morning across the
southern zones. This activity was at the base of a very weak 500-hPa
trof. This activity will diminish quickly through the early morning
hours. The next shot at thunderstorms comes this afternoon and evening.
Have low confidence in storms developing, since the main wave will be
mainly to the E/SE. Have very low pops SE of a line from Elkhart to
Liebenthal. The ARW and 4 km NAM do break out storms (in different locations
though), while the NMMB is mostly dry. Again, only went with 15-20 pops.
Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, highs today will be in the
90s with lows in the 60s to around 70 for Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The forecast is dry through early Sunday. Decided to take out pops Saturday
evening as not seeing a whole lot of opportunity for convection with
a 590 dm high overhead. Pops do ramp up quickly late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. A synoptic trof will begin to influence our region with
dynamics aloft and low level lift along surface boundaries. Tuesday
looks the most interesting per the ECMWF. The GFS was not used as the
trof looks too progressive. It`s summer and systems move slow typically
versus what the GFS indicates. The EC paints a severe weather picture
Tuesday evening with 40-50 kt of bulk shear, 3000 J/kg of CAPE and
a warm front. Very large hail would be a concern if supercells develop.
In addition, conceptually, warm front isolated tornadoes could be possible
as well if you take the model verbatim. All these small scale details
will be hammered out in future runs, but last nights 00Z EC run looked
interesting for Tuesday evening as well (in terms of a ramp up of significant
severe weather across the Kansas prairie). Otherwise, temps through
the extended will be Summer-like with highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Convection across SW Kansas is diminishing and will watch radar trends
to see if an amendment is needed at each terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. There could be convection once again tomorrow afternoon
and evening, but latest guidance suggests this probably won`t impact
the terminals. Will leave out for now. Winds will be SE/S 10-15 kt increasing
15-25 kt by late morning through dusk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 69 92 69 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 96 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 93 65 90 65 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 94 68 92 67 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
KDDC WSR-88D shows some thunderstorms early this morning across the
southern zones. This activity was at the base of a very weak 500-hPa
trof. This activity will diminish quickly through the early morning
hours. The next shot at thunderstorms comes this afternoon and evening.
Have low confidence in storms developing, since the main wave will be
mainly to the E/SE. Have very low pops SE of a line from Elkhart to
Liebenthal. The ARW and 4 km NAM do break out storms (in different locations
though), while the NMMB is mostly dry. Again, only went with 15-20 pops.
Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, highs today will be in the
90s with lows in the 60s to around 70 for Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The forecast is dry through early Sunday. Decided to take out pops Saturday
evening as not seeing a whole lot of opportunity for convection with
a 590 dm high overhead. Pops do ramp up quickly late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. A synoptic trof will begin to influence our region with
dynamics aloft and low level lift along surface boundaries. Tuesday
looks the most interesting per the ECMWF. The GFS was not used as the
trof looks too progressive. It`s summer and systems move slow typically
versus what the GFS indicates. The EC paints a severe weather picture
Tuesday evening with 40-50 kt of bulk shear, 3000 J/kg of CAPE and
a warm front. Very large hail would be a concern if supercells develop.
In addition, conceptually, warm front isolated tornadoes could be possible
as well if you take the model verbatim. All these small scale details
will be hammered out in future runs, but last nights 00Z EC run looked
interesting for Tuesday evening as well (in terms of a ramp up of significant
severe weather across the Kansas prairie). Otherwise, temps through
the extended will be Summer-like with highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Convection across SW Kansas is diminishing and will watch radar trends
to see if an amendment is needed at each terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. There could be convection once again tomorrow afternoon
and evening, but latest guidance suggests this probably won`t impact
the terminals. Will leave out for now. Winds will be SE/S 10-15 kt increasing
15-25 kt by late morning through dusk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 69 92 69 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 96 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 93 65 90 65 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 94 68 92 67 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Early afternoon WV satellite imagery and RAP analysis shows upper
level ridging across the SW US. A shortwave trough is currently
centered over western KS with a weaker shortwave rotating over
eastern KS. At the surface a surface trough is approximately along
the CO/KS border extending into SW Nebraska, with SW flow across SW
Kansas into south central Nebraska.
This afternoon-evening: with forcing associated with shortwave
trough lingering potential exists for thunderstorm development.
Main CAPE axis is associated with moist surface layer in SW flow
with marginal CAPE values expected across our southeast. ML CIN is
in the process of weakening, so initiation s0ouc take place in region
of weak convergence. LCLs/LFCs are high with a high melting layer
associated with warm/dry adiabatic layer through approximately
700mb. Above this there is limited moisture advection. Drier and
more subsident air mass is in our northwest lowering confidence in
initiation in all but our NW Kansas counties where strongest precip
signal is in place. Due to the dry nature of the soundings coverage
should remain isolated to widely scattered. Main axis of forcing
transitions east this evening, and loss of daytime
heating/stabilization of the boundary layer should lead to any
lingering activity diminishing after sunset.
Due to the high bases, deep melting layer, and marginal CAPE values
in our CWA, confidence in severe hail is lower. On the other hand
DCAPE values in the 1500 J/KG range, and Inverted V soundings raises
concern for microburst potential.
Friday: H5 ridge will be centered roughly across our western CWA,
with large scale subsidence and an even drier air mass limiting any
thunderstorm potential. Bigger story will be the hot air mass in
place, with mean H85 temps at 30-31C range. Warmer guidance is even
higher. Warmest layer is actually in the 925mb layer with some
guidance showing temps around 37C (98F). With even minor bias
corrections the mean/consensus guidance shows highs in the upper
90s, and it is certainly possible for some locations to reach the
low 100s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Friday through Saturday remain hot and dry with the upper ridge
moving into place over the central United States and southerly
flow at the surface.
On Sunday, the upper ridge axis pushes east with a short wave
trough aloft lifting out across the central high plains ahead of
the main upper trough that starts progressing eastward into the
southwestern U.S. A surface trough also associated with the upper
wave moves east across the forecast area with a weak cold front to
follow overnight Sunday night. Temperatures on Monday will cool
somewhat, but will remain slightly above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s. The best chance of precipitation will be
Monday evening through Tuesday as the low over the southwest U.S.
lifts out across the Rockies and Central High Plains as an open
wave with another surface trough/front expected to move across the
forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler on
Tuesday as a result.
Wednesday and into Thursday look dry and hot again as short wave
ridging replaces the trough aloft with high pressure also
generally in place across the central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016
VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. This is due to
abundant dry air that will maintain it`s firm grip on the Tri-
State Region. Decided to put LLWS back into the TAF at KMCK.
Latest VAD Wind Profile data from KGLD radar indicates a 45 kt
low level jet. This is on the fringe of the main jet so think
guidance under forecast the strength of the jet. Anticipate LLWS
to persist until just before sunrise when the jet weakens and
slides east.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
Weak upper flow continues over the Central Plains this afternoon.
A weak upper trough was evident in the water vapor imagery over
western Nebraska into to the Texas Panhandle. Another weakening
circulation was moving across southeast Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma. Surface dry line was located over the high plains and
will move very little. Short term models differ with convection
this evening with the HRRR and and the RUC moving in some
weakening convection from the west during the late evening hours
into north central Kansas. The experimental HRRR keeps
precipitation to the west and diminishes it before moving to the
east of U.S. 81 Highway tonight. Will continue with small
precipitation chances in north central Kansas tonight. Lows
tonight will continue to be mild with readings in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Friday, Another good warm up is expected with the thermal ridge
extending into central Kansas have increased highs slightly into the
mid 90s with lower 90s elsewhere across northeast and east central
Kansas. The afternoon heat index will reach near 100 degrees across
parts of north central and northeast Kansas with the rest of the
area in the mid to upper 90s heat index. Weak upper trough/wave
moves across central and east Kansas on Friday. There is little in
the way of surface moisture convergence with the absence of any
boundary and a small EML remains in place through much of the day.
The upper trough fills as it moves east with the NAM the strongest
with the upper energy. Cannot rule out an isolated late afternoon
storm out in central Kansas, but confidence is not high enough to
include in forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For Friday night through Sunday, the main question with the
forecast is whether a lobe of vorticity gets trapped within the
upper ridge over the state. This idea was not in the operational
models yesterday, and now have almost a weak closed low aloft
near the forecast area during the weekend. Therefore confidence is
not all that great. Forecast soundings suggest the airmass will be
conditionally unstable with little inhibition to convection. So if
this piece of energy is near the area, there could be some
diurnally driven convection Saturday and/or Sunday. For now have
left POPs around 10 percent but later shifts may need to increase
chances if models continue to leave behind this energy within the
ridge. The forecast appears to be in good shape regarding forecast
temps as there isn`t much chance in the solution`s thermal
profiles. Highs are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s as
forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to around 825MB.
Continued southerly flow and dewpoints holding in the 60s
overnight support the lows forecast for temps bottoming out around
70 degrees.
Precip chances should be on the increase for Sunday night through
much of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and energy from
the west passes through the plains. An initial shortwave is
progged to pass through the central plains Sunday night and early
Monday. Then a more amplified system moves slowly across the
plains through Wednesday. The medium range models have come into
better agreement in closing off an upper low just north of the
forecast area by Wednesday. Think the better chances for precip
will be Monday through Tuesday night as the upper wave initially
moves out from the southern Rockies and a surface wave lifts
across the area. After Wednesday, there are question on where the
closed low drifts to and a possible dry slot working into the
area. Have held onto some small POPs Wednesday night and across
eastern KS for Thursday to account for the closed low in the
region. The models show temps trending cooler for next week as the
upper system moves through the region. However am a little
concerned temps could be to cool as cold raw model guidance seems
to be skewing the forecast cooler when there is no significant
cold air advection. This is probably due to the models generating
precip during these periods. Unless it is cloudy and raining all
day, it is hard to see why temps would not continue to be in the
lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. With this in mind have kept
highs in the upper 80s and around 90 rather than the middle 80s.
There are signs of increasing cold air advection by Wednesday as
the upper closed low moves east of the forecast area. With this in
mind, have shown a little more of a cool down for the later part
of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Some models still suggest that there may be a slight chance for
some marginal LLWS overnight, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect the
southerly winds to increase once again by late Friday morning,
with gusts around 20kts through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
109 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
We cancelled those portions of severe thunderstorm watch number
240 which are behind the primary, linear band of thunderstorms
that extends from near Rugby southward into Sheridan County as of
06 UTC. The line of storms has back-built south of the watch and
into eastern Burleigh County east of Bismarck. We will watch radar
trends to see if Kidder and Stutsman Counties need to be added to
the watch, but at this point trends in intensity suggest we might
not need to expand it any further.
UPDATE Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Another quick update to extend severe thunderstorm watch 240 into
Foster County based on upstream radar trends and in collaboration
with SPC and WFO Grand Forks. We also trimmed a few more counties
in southwest ND from watch 240 with this update.
UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.
UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Thunderstorms with local MVFR and IFR conditions, heavy rain, and
gusty winds will move out of central ND by about 11 UTC. VFR
conditions will prevail across western and central ND on Friday
behind the weak cool front which is generating tonight`s
thunderstorm activity.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1157 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Another quick update to extend severe thunderstorm watch 240 into
Foster County based on upstream radar trends and in collaboration
with SPC and WFO Grand Forks. We also trimmed a few more counties
in southwest ND from watch 240 with this update.
UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.
UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Thunderstorms with local MVFR and IFR conditions, heavy rain, and
gusty winds will move out of western ND by about 08 UTC, and out
of central ND by about 11 UTC. VFR conditions will prevail across
western and central ND on Friday behind the weak cool front which
is generating tonight`s thunderstorm activity.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1127 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.
UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central ND
through about 10 UTC. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty
winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds, especially in western and
north central ND.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions are expected across northern
Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough, currently just
off the southern California coast, slowly makes its way eastward.
Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels of the
atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing today.
Monday...As the trough swings through the region, there will be
enough moisture/instability for a few showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, mainly north
of I-40. The best chances will be along and north of a line from
the Grand Canyon to Window Rock.
Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather is expected through this
period along with a warming trend as high pressure begins to build
into the area. High temperatures will rise to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal by Friday. Additionally, breezy southwest winds may
make for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought
record temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have
this ridge in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are
expecting this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The
current forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A drier air mass will bring
mainly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area of the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Afternoon Southwest winds 10-20 kts
gusting to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the
Arizona/New Mexico border. On Monday, a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40 with the passage of a
weather disturbance. Southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range each
afternoon.
Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwesterly flow will dominate the
weather across Arizona with afternoon humidity values potentially
dropping into the single digits and gusty winds each day. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mottice
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
this afternoon followed by dry condiitons Monday through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The pre-Monsoon thunderstorm action of the past two
days is coming to an end. A few storms are still possible near the
New Mexico border today otherwise drier air continues to push in
from the west over the area. Cooler than normal temperatures today
into Tuesday then a warming trend during the second half of the work
week with the furnace being turned on next weekend. Models
consistent on developing a very strong high pressure ridge over the
area next weekend with 500 mb heights approaching 600 DM. Based on
in house low level thickness value study highs next weekend have the
potential to be hotter than what occurred earlier this month and
will approach record highs on the 17th thru the 19th. Could end up
being historic as some places may end up close to not only all-time
June record highs but all-time yearly record highs. A little early
for issuance of an excessive heat watch but will be getting the
message out via social media platforms today.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
Scattered clouds from 10-12k ft msl near the New Mexico border this
afternoon with slgt chc of -shra/-tsra, otherwise SKC. Surface winds
less than 10 kts...then becoming W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts. Wind diminishing after sunset to less than 10
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of thunderstorms near the New Mexico
border this afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next weekend. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
Sunday followed by dry condiitons Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will remain near normal or a few degrees below normal
through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon across parts of southeast Arizona have ended late this
evening. Still looking at some debris cloudiness east of Tucson,
with clear skies elsewhere. General clearing will continue overnight
tonight, with a few cloud build ups and isolated thunderstorms near
the New Mexico border tomorrow afternoon. Current forecast handled
these trends well, so no updates expected this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/06Z. Cloud decks from Tucson eastward will
range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or scattered clouds above 15k
ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning. Surface wind this afternoon
wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur
mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail
Monday through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting
a baggy upper trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly
flow aloft Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the
central/srn Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions
will commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into
next weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the
latter part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar
with the depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern
Arizona/ wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps
thru Tue will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter
temps will prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers will continue over northern
Coconino county through Saturday evening. Otherwise...dry and breezy
conditions are forecast Sunday, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A drying/warming trend will
commence Tuesday, and will continue through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly decreasing this evening...with
isolated showers expected til midnight over N. Coconin county. Grids
are in great shape, and no updates are planned at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../323pm mst/...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
continue to develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino
counties where MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg.
However, weak deep layer shear is keeping this convection
disorganized and well below severe limits. This activity should
continue through the late afternoon hours, then begin to wane around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday...with southerly winds gusting to 30kts Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM/BAK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin/BAK
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing
mostly north-to-east of the Tucson metro area this afternoon.
Various 11/12Z NWP models suggest the bulk of these showers and
thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity
during the next several hours. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east to the New Mexico border
this evening. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms then
continues late tonight into Sunday evening mainly near the New
Mexico border.
11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting a baggy upper
trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly flow aloft
Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the central/srn
Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions will
commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into next
weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the latter
part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar with the
depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern Arizona/
wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps thru Tue
will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter temps will
prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity nwd/ewd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight thru Sunday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to around 45
kts will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud
decks from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear
skies or scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday
morning. Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times
except near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson northward, and eastward to the New Mexico
border. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur mostly
near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend (June 19).
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
224 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next several
days resulting in somewhat cooler weather through early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be pushed well east as drier air
moves back into the region. After several relatively comfortable
days with near normal temperatures through the middle of next week,
excessively hot weather will likely settle back into the area by the
end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should only impact areas south of
the Phoenix metro through the rest of the afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to totally rule a shower or storm to briefly
affect southern portions of the metro area. Breezy southerly winds
will eventually turn westerly this evening for the Phoenix terminals
and remain westerly through much of the overnight. After midnight
the area will be under drying conditions and clearing skies. Gusty
southerly winds will affect southeast California including KBLH and
KIPL through around midnight with winds 10 kts or less thereafter.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1218 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Convection is firing over the higher terrain of Yavapai
county and western Coconino county early this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is also developing over southern Apache
county in the vicinity of the White Mountains. Think the
convection over Yavapai/western Coconino counties will expand in
coverage this afternoon due to increasing instability.
Updated the forecast to expand scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
into the North Rim area based on current obs/trends. The remaining
weather elements are in good shape. The updated forecast has been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with scattered coverage over Yavapai and western
Coconino counties. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Current visible satellite imagery shows convective
clouds beginning to develop over Yavapai and western Coconino
counties. Furthermore, a mid/high level cloud deck over most of
Navajo and all of Apache counties should continue to lift north of
the region through the afternoon.
The latest high-res models prog increasing instability over
Yavapai and western Coconino counties today. Furthermore, with
dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s, think enough lift and
instability should initiate convection along the Mogollon Rim this
afternoon. Weak deep layer shear should keep convection below
severe limits.
Updated the forecast based on current obs/trends. Increased the
temporal resolution of pops in order to try and best time the
convection across northern Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast is on track. The updated products have been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with isolated coverage in northwestern Arizona and more
scattered coverage in northeastern Arizona. On Sunday drier air
moves in ending chances for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
High pressure builds in from Tuesday onward with hot and dry weather.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and several HRRR solutions
suggest that showers/tstms will develop near the Tucson metro area
eastward/southward later this morning into early this afternoon.
These cells will then move quickly nwd/newd, with the main concern
for potentially damaging wind gusts. The bulk of these showers/
tstms will end this evening.
There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity ewd/swd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight into Sunday morning. Brief wind gusts to around 45 kts
will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud decks
from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or
scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning.
Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25
kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times except near
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson east and south. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon will occur mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry
conditions will then prevail Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal into early next
week, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday into next Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /234 AM MST/...Precipitable water values remain
well above mid-June normals this morning with values mostly in the
1.00"-1.50" range. Water vapor imagery showed an upper level low
approaching southern CA. Drier air will start to push in from the
west as the day progresses, but enough will be around across the
eastern 2/3rds of the area for isolated valley/scattered mountains
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are forecast to
be below 1" on Sunday with a slight chance of storms relegated to
the White mountains. High temperatures this weekend will remain
several degrees below normal.
Upper level trof will push across the state on Monday providing
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and further drying of the
atmosphere.
Upper ridge strengthens over the area Tuesday through Friday
resulting in warmer daytime high temperatures.
Outside of this forecast package are likely hotter daytime
temperatures as the upper ridge continues to strengthen over the
area. Highs next weekend could rival what occurred earlier this
month.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
119 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
A cold front will move through the area tonight...bringing cooler
and less humid air for Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will return for much of the upcoming work week as the front
returns north and remains over the region. Lows tonight will range
from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. Highs on Sunday will be
in the upper 70s to middle 80s...with locally cooler conditions
near Lake Michigan.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
Loss of daytime heating and limited forcing has allowed all shower
development to cease across the area with the remainder of the
evening expected to be dry. Well defined cold front noted from
Saginaw Bay west to north of Muskegon with a noticeable drop in
temps and dewpoints (at least 10 degree drop on both elements) behind
the front. Forcing along the front has broke through the cap
immediately ahead of the front with a few showers from Mt Pleasant
MI ENE into Saginaw Bay. Much more capped atmosphere should be in
place further south to keep this activity from surviving too long.
Hi res models have generally backed off on any development with
the front...but given at least limited instability still in place
across the area and slightly increased shear with the
front...can`t rule out a stray shower or storm. Still not quite
worthy of a mention in the grids/zones with the evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
Outflow from overnight MCS to our north effectively squashed
convection this afternoon as we thought was a possibility. RUC point
soundings show high CAPE but little effective shear and rather large
temp/dew point depressions for convective initiation. Weak pre-
frontal trough and convectively enhanced short wave moved through
northeast area earlier today helping bring sfc winds around to west
northwest...further limiting low level convergence. On the plus
side, radar and satellite showing a couple boundaries that were
trying to convect at issuance. Northern boundary appears to be lake
enhanced and lies across northern Indiana. Second boundary located
over south central forecast area and is drifting east.
A couple cells have developed along these boundaries and currently
dropping quick heavy rainfall with some signs of lightning and
outflows. Given very unstable conditions these pulse storms expected
through early evening with heavy rain. Large CAPE and evaporative
cooling could yield brief and isolated strong to severe wind
gusts.
Main synoptic cold front slides south through the area overnight.
Could be a few isolated showers near boundary per a few hires models
but at this point plan on leaving out of forecast. Drier air will
filter in late tonight. Surface high to slide southeast from upper
Midwest across the western Lakes Sunday while mid level ridge builds
to our west. This will provide a comfortable day with north to
northeast winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jun 11 2016
High pressure will be over the area at start of period but will be
sliding east as return flow develops. Another upper midwest MCS
looks likely Sunday night as short wave tops plains ridge.
Convectively enhanced short wave then looks to drop southeast Monday
and helps bring a weak front into the north late as heights fall.
This will set the stage for shower and thunderstorm chances through
much of the week as this boundary becomes quasi stationary and
meanders across the region with short wave energy emanating east
from a developing mid level closed low to our west. This low will
then drift towards the area by mid to late week with additional
showers and thunderstorms in its vicinity. Models have shown various
solutions with track and timing of this low. Prefer slower solutions
but its exact southeastward track remains uncertain. Really no
choice but to continue chance pops through much of the upcoming week
though it will be dry for a large part of the time with occasional
convective chances. Details to be refined as the week progresses.
Temperatures to remain seasonably warm in the 80s with clouds and
pcpn chances impacting these numbers day to day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2016
vfr conds xpcd this pd as ridging sfc and aloft rebuilds
acrs the region.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...T
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
A weak MCV was moving across northwest Missouri this afternoon which
formed from an earlier MCS over Iowa this morning. Short term high
resolution models have been showing convection developing through
the morning and afternoon in northeast and east central Kansas.
Latest RUC soundings show a weak cap remaining in place through peak
heating. Cumulus remains rather flat across the area this afternoon
similar to previous afternoons. Upper level ridge remains in place
across the Central Plains. Tonight expect the cumulus clouds to
dissipate with the loss of heating with mostly clear skies expected.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night with low to mid 70s
common. Sunday models continue to show some mid level energy over
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. There may be enough lift in
the afternoon when atmosphere becomes uncapped for isolated
thunderstorms to develop from southeast Kansas into Arkansas and
will leave east central Kansas dry for now with model qpf
clustering to the southeast of the cwa. Highs on Sunday will be
similar to today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will again approach 100 degrees across parts of the area on Sunday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
Sunday night through Tuesday, storm chances increase for much of the
period. Late Sunday evening have gone with slight chance POPs over
southern to western portions of the area as perhaps weak forcing may
provide enough lift in a moist environment to cause a few showers
and thunderstorms. The chance remains small at this point as the
boundary layer will remain mostly capped off and a weak upper
circulation advances into southern Missouri. Late Sunday, a storm
complex develops over west central Nebraska along the nose of a LLJ
and slowly works its way southeast into the forecast area by early
morning into a less favorably sheared environment and an area of
smaller scale shortwave ridging. During the day, remnant
thunderstorm activity and an uncapped environment should lead to
mostly cloudy conditions with a few thunderstorms possible over
eastern portions of the forecast area where weak ridging will still
be influencing the area but continuing to be suppressed as larger
scale forcing advances from the west. Therefore, have left chance
POPs over western portions of the forecast area into the afternoon
on Monday.
Tuesday night, a LLJ will likely aid in the development
of thunderstorms over western KS and as storms grow upscale, another
complex may develop and begin to advance into the north central
Kansas and on into northeastern Kansas over night. Most long term
guidance is generally in better agreement but still details seem to
be in question such as exact positioning of the upper wave and
strength of the upper wave as it moves out of the Central Rockies
into the Central Plains. Previous runs have shown this wave to
actually be a closed off low and more intense but that has been
backed off at this point a bit and now the overall flow of the
southern stream energy may be a bit weaker. Regardless, a more
northerly track of the upper low seems to make sense based on
current positioning just off the SoCal region. Depending on the
actual strength of the upper trough feature, it seems to make sense
that as the overnight MCS organizes out west and moves into western
portions of the forecast area it could be sustained through the
morning into the early afternoon hours as shear profiles increase to
above 35kts, MUCAPE reaches to around 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg and mid-
level lapse rates increase to at least conditional and probably up
to around 7 C/km. Of course, some changes will likely occur between
now and Tuesday as to how much severe potential we end up with, but
at least some needed rain will likely fall over much of the area as
the long term forecast looks mainly dry after this round of precip
with possibly the exception of next Friday time frame as a
frontogenetical response sets up on the backside of the wave
previously mentioned as it transitions into a cut-off low eventually
working back into portions of the Ohio and mid MS Valley regions
before filling and transitioning into a frontal system over the East
coast region. Temps cool back a bit into the mid and upper 80s by
next weekend as more zonal flow sets up over the Northern into
Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016
Sfc high pressure to the southeast keeps winds below 10 kts
through the period. Overall VFR conditions with a brief period of
BR or haze near sunrise. Thunder chances are low from 00Z onward
so did not include.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
848 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Considerable drying has occurred over the past 24 hours with PWATS
falling to well below an inch. Given the drop in moisture levels
there is now little to no chance of any additional shower or
thunderstorm activity. Skies will remain clear aside from a few mid
level afternoon CU mainly focused over the south-central Arizona
higher terrain. A slow moving upper level trough currently off the
Southwest U.S. coast will move into the region tonight into Monday,
but no additional moisture will be added, so the only result will be
the continued slightly below normal temperatures. I made some minor
adjustments to sky cover to add in more areal CU coverage for this
afternoon. The rest of the forecast is on track with no other
adjustments are needed.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.
This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather impacts through Monday morning with only
Few-Sct CU developing over the mountains this afternoon. Winds
around central Arizona may obtain a cross runway southerly component
near 10kt for a few hours late this morning before veering to the
more traditional W/SW direction. A few gusts 20-25kt will be
possible, but confidence in prolonged stronger gusts is low. Across
SE CA, winds will favor a S/SW type direction though may be light
and variable on occasion.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above
average (and near record highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain
fairly typical for mid June, with some afternoon gusts approaching 20
to 25 mph in the usual upslope favored locations.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.
This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather impacts through Monday morning with only
Few-Sct CU developing over the mountains this afternoon. Winds
around central Arizona may obtain a cross runway southerly component
near 10kt for a few hours late this morning before veering to the
more traditional W/SW direction. A few gusts 20-25kt will be
possible, but confidence in prolonged stronger gusts is low. Across
SE CA, winds will favor a S/SW type direction though may be light
and variable on occasion.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above
average (and near record highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain
fairly typical for mid June, with some afternoon gusts approaching 20
to 25 mph in the usual upslope favored locations.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
309 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.
This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hernandez
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions are expected across northern
Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough, currently just
off the southern California coast, slowly makes its way eastward.
Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels of the
atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing today.
Monday...As the trough swings through the region, there will be
enough moisture/instability for a few showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, mainly north
of I-40. The best chances will be along and north of a line from
the Grand Canyon to Window Rock.
Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather is expected through this
period along with a warming trend as high pressure begins to build
into the area. High temperatures will rise to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal by Friday. Additionally, breezy southwest winds may
make for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought
record temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have
this ridge in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are
expecting this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The
current forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A drier air mass will bring
mainly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area of the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Afternoon Southwest winds 10-20 kts
gusting to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the
Arizona/New Mexico border. On Monday, a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40 with the passage of a
weather disturbance. Southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range each
afternoon.
Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwesterly flow will dominate the
weather across Arizona with afternoon humidity values potentially
dropping into the single digits and gusty winds each day. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mottice
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
this afternoon followed by dry condiitons Monday through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The pre-Monsoon thunderstorm action of the past two
days is coming to an end. A few storms are still possible near the
New Mexico border today otherwise drier air continues to push in
from the west over the area. Cooler than normal temperatures today
into Tuesday then a warming trend during the second half of the work
week with the furnace being turned on next weekend. Models
consistent on developing a very strong high pressure ridge over the
area next weekend with 500 mb heights approaching 600 DM. Based on
in house low level thickness value study highs next weekend have the
potential to be hotter than what occurred earlier this month and
will approach record highs on the 17th thru the 19th. Could end up
being historic as some places may end up close to not only all-time
June record highs but all-time yearly record highs. A little early
for issuance of an excessive heat watch but will be getting the
message out via social media platforms today.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
Scattered clouds from 10-12k ft msl near the New Mexico border this
afternoon with slgt chc of -shra/-tsra, otherwise SKC. Surface winds
less than 10 kts...then becoming W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts. Wind diminishing after sunset to less than 10
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of thunderstorms near the New Mexico
border this afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next weekend. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
Sunday followed by dry condiitons Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will remain near normal or a few degrees below normal
through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon across parts of southeast Arizona have ended late this
evening. Still looking at some debris cloudiness east of Tucson,
with clear skies elsewhere. General clearing will continue overnight
tonight, with a few cloud build ups and isolated thunderstorms near
the New Mexico border tomorrow afternoon. Current forecast handled
these trends well, so no updates expected this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/06Z. Cloud decks from Tucson eastward will
range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or scattered clouds above 15k
ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning. Surface wind this afternoon
wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur
mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail
Monday through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting
a baggy upper trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly
flow aloft Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the
central/srn Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions
will commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into
next weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the
latter part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar
with the depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern
Arizona/ wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps
thru Tue will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter
temps will prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers will continue over northern
Coconino county through Saturday evening. Otherwise...dry and breezy
conditions are forecast Sunday, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A drying/warming trend will
commence Tuesday, and will continue through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly decreasing this evening...with
isolated showers expected til midnight over N. Coconin county. Grids
are in great shape, and no updates are planned at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../323pm mst/...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
continue to develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino
counties where MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg.
However, weak deep layer shear is keeping this convection
disorganized and well below severe limits. This activity should
continue through the late afternoon hours, then begin to wane around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday...with southerly winds gusting to 30kts Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM/BAK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin/BAK
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing
mostly north-to-east of the Tucson metro area this afternoon.
Various 11/12Z NWP models suggest the bulk of these showers and
thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity
during the next several hours. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east to the New Mexico border
this evening. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms then
continues late tonight into Sunday evening mainly near the New
Mexico border.
11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting a baggy upper
trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly flow aloft
Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the central/srn
Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions will
commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into next
weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the latter
part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar with the
depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern Arizona/
wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps thru Tue
will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter temps will
prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity nwd/ewd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight thru Sunday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to around 45
kts will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud
decks from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear
skies or scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday
morning. Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times
except near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson northward, and eastward to the New Mexico
border. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur mostly
near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend (June 19).
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
224 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next several
days resulting in somewhat cooler weather through early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be pushed well east as drier air
moves back into the region. After several relatively comfortable
days with near normal temperatures through the middle of next week,
excessively hot weather will likely settle back into the area by the
end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should only impact areas south of
the Phoenix metro through the rest of the afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to totally rule a shower or storm to briefly
affect southern portions of the metro area. Breezy southerly winds
will eventually turn westerly this evening for the Phoenix terminals
and remain westerly through much of the overnight. After midnight
the area will be under drying conditions and clearing skies. Gusty
southerly winds will affect southeast California including KBLH and
KIPL through around midnight with winds 10 kts or less thereafter.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1218 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Convection is firing over the higher terrain of Yavapai
county and western Coconino county early this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is also developing over southern Apache
county in the vicinity of the White Mountains. Think the
convection over Yavapai/western Coconino counties will expand in
coverage this afternoon due to increasing instability.
Updated the forecast to expand scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
into the North Rim area based on current obs/trends. The remaining
weather elements are in good shape. The updated forecast has been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with scattered coverage over Yavapai and western
Coconino counties. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Current visible satellite imagery shows convective
clouds beginning to develop over Yavapai and western Coconino
counties. Furthermore, a mid/high level cloud deck over most of
Navajo and all of Apache counties should continue to lift north of
the region through the afternoon.
The latest high-res models prog increasing instability over
Yavapai and western Coconino counties today. Furthermore, with
dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s, think enough lift and
instability should initiate convection along the Mogollon Rim this
afternoon. Weak deep layer shear should keep convection below
severe limits.
Updated the forecast based on current obs/trends. Increased the
temporal resolution of pops in order to try and best time the
convection across northern Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast is on track. The updated products have been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with isolated coverage in northwestern Arizona and more
scattered coverage in northeastern Arizona. On Sunday drier air
moves in ending chances for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
High pressure builds in from Tuesday onward with hot and dry weather.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and several HRRR solutions
suggest that showers/tstms will develop near the Tucson metro area
eastward/southward later this morning into early this afternoon.
These cells will then move quickly nwd/newd, with the main concern
for potentially damaging wind gusts. The bulk of these showers/
tstms will end this evening.
There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity ewd/swd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight into Sunday morning. Brief wind gusts to around 45 kts
will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud decks
from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or
scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning.
Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25
kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times except near
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson east and south. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon will occur mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry
conditions will then prevail Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal into early next
week, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday into next Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /234 AM MST/...Precipitable water values remain
well above mid-June normals this morning with values mostly in the
1.00"-1.50" range. Water vapor imagery showed an upper level low
approaching southern CA. Drier air will start to push in from the
west as the day progresses, but enough will be around across the
eastern 2/3rds of the area for isolated valley/scattered mountains
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are forecast to
be below 1" on Sunday with a slight chance of storms relegated to
the White mountains. High temperatures this weekend will remain
several degrees below normal.
Upper level trof will push across the state on Monday providing
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and further drying of the
atmosphere.
Upper ridge strengthens over the area Tuesday through Friday
resulting in warmer daytime high temperatures.
Outside of this forecast package are likely hotter daytime
temperatures as the upper ridge continues to strengthen over the
area. Highs next weekend could rival what occurred earlier this
month.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Cool conditions for mid-June are forecast for Monday
with a chance of thunderstorms mainly near/north of I-40. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of this coming weekend. Record high temperatures
look to make a return by this coming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite shows an extensive cumulus field across most of
northern Arizona. Radar shows that storm/shower activity is
limited to western New Mexico, and has moved somewhat eastward
with time as forecast. Other shower activity is located northwest
of Las Vegas. Expect a dry remainder of the afternoon/evening
across the CWA with breezy southwest winds continuing through
sunset.
Mainly isolated thunderstorms are forecast near and north of
Interstate 40 from the early morning hours Monday through Monday
afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage possible on the Kaibab
Plateau and Black Mesa/areas near the Utah state line. This is in
association with some moisture being brought northward ahead of
the trough axis as it swings through northern Arizona late
tomorrow afternoon. A cool day for mid-June is expected tomorrow
along with breezy afternoon winds, especially in eastern Arizona.
A pronounced warming trend starts on Tuesday and continues through
the week as a strong ridge begins to build over the southwest U.S.
A trough passing well to the northwest of Arizona may still allow
for winds to become quite breezy on Wednesday afternoon along with
the warm temperatures and very dry air.
By this weekend, NAEFS climatological percentiles indicate that we
will be at least into the 90-95th percentile range for 700mb
temps/500mb heights, even higher in a few locations. This lasts
into Monday- Tuesday. Forecast temperatures have led us to issue
an Excessive Heat Watch for elevations below 4000 feet in
Yavapai/northern Gila Counties and the Grand Canyon. The watch is
valid through Monday for now, but may eventually need to be
extended in time. We`d best enjoy the cool temperatures tomorrow,
because this coming weekend will be a cooker.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Mainly VFR conds over the next 24
hrs. A low pressure trough is forecast to swing across the region
producing Isold-Sct shra/tsra mainly N of a line from KPRC-KFGZ-KRQE
starting aft 06z tonight. Afternoon SW winds 10-20 kts G30 kts dcrsg
aft sunset tonight then SW winds 10-20 kts G30kts incrsg again aft
16z Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will taper off overnight tonight before
becoming breezy again Monday afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are also possible north of Interstate 40 Monday
afternoon and evening as a weak trough passes through the area. The
dry weather will continue Tuesday but with weaker winds.
Wednesday through Friday...Strong southwesterly winds and RH values
in the single digits to low teens will support near-critical fire
conditions Wednesday afternoon. Strong high pressure begins building
in from the east on Thursday and Friday with well-above average
temperatures, very low RH`s, and weaker winds this weekend.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening FOR AZZ006-018-037.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Taylor
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TRC
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry low pressure system will move across the region through
Tuesday keeping temperatures near normal. As high pressure starts
building to our southeast, a dramatic warming trend will start on
Wednesday with near or slightly above normal temperatures through
Thursday. A large heat dome under a very strong high pressure system
will develop starting Friday and persist into next weekend with
record high temperatures for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A significant heat episode for next weekend is very likely and will
surely break daily records and potentially compete with past heat
events where Phoenix hit 120F. Before this heat event develops, near
or slightly below normal temperatures will be seen through the middle
of this week. Southerly flow ahead of an upper level trough off the
Southwest U.S. coast is currently bringing drying conditions to our
region as evident via water vapor imagery and a large area of blended
total precipitable water values of around 2/3 of an inch. This trough
will move through the Desert Southwest through Monday night keeping
temperatures rather mild with highs generally in a 95-102 range
across the deserts.
A high amplitude synoptic regime develops during the middle of this
week as a deep upper low becomes entrenched over the Pacific
Northwest. This will allow the ridge over the Southern Plains to
strengthen and retrograde to the west. Strong model agreement shows
500mb heights building from around 586dm on Wednesday to 592-594dm on
Friday and even as high as 600dm heights centered just south of the
Four Corners area on Sunday. Highs by Friday will likely top 110
degrees over the south-central Arizona deserts and continue to climb
into the weekend under near record heights aloft. As 850mb
temperatures climb to near 35C by Sunday, we should be seeing
widespread high temperatures of 115-120F. This could end up being a
long duration excessive heat event, but beyond next Monday model
spread increases. There are also indications of some moisture that
may advect in from from the east and heights should gradually lower
back toward 590-594dm after next Monday. Either way, there is enough
confidence to issue an Excessive Heat Watch starting Friday for the
south-central Arizona deserts spreading nearly all other areas for
next Saturday through Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather aviation impacts to consider. Few-Sct CU
developing so far this afternoon over the eastern mountains but
should stay well out of the terminal area. Winds otherwise follow
their typical W/SW direction around 10-15kts for all TAF sites with
some afternoon gustiness around 20-25kts possible.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as strong high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above average (record
highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain fairly typical for mid June,
with some afternoon gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph in the usual
upslope favored locations.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.
CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
205 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry low pressure system will move across the region through
Tuesday keeping temperatures near normal. As high pressure starts
building to our southeast, a dramatic warming trend will start on
Wednesday with near or slightly above normal temperatures through
Thursday. A large heat dome under a very strong high pressure system
will develop starting Friday and persist into next weekend with
record high temperatures for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A significant heat episode for next weekend is very likely and will
surely break daily records and potentially compete with past heat
events where Phoenix hit 120F. Before this heat event develops, near
or slightly below normal temperatures will be seen through the middle
of this week. Southerly flow ahead of an upper level trough off the
Southwest U.S. coast is currently bringing drying conditions to our
region as evident via water vapor imagery and a large area of blended
total precipitable water values of around 2/3 of an inch. This trough
will move through the Desert Southwest through Monday night keeping
temperatures rather mild with highs generally in a 95-102 range
across the deserts.
A high amplitude synoptic regime develops during the middle of this
week as a deep upper low becomes entrenched over the Pacific
Northwest. This will allow the ridge over the Southern Plains to
strengthen and retrograde to the west. Strong model agreement shows
500mb heights building from around 586dm on Wednesday to 592-594dm on
Friday and even as high as 600dm heights centered just south of the
Four Corners area on Sunday. Highs by Friday will likely top 110
degrees over the south-central Arizona deserts and continue to climb
into the weekend under near record heights aloft. As 850mb
temperatures climb to near 35C by Sunday, we should be seeing
widespread high temperatures of 115-120F. This could end up being a
long duration excessive heat event, but beyond next Monday model
spread increases. There are also indications of some moisture that
may advect in from from the east and heights should gradually lower
back toward 590-594dm after next Monday. Either way, there is enough
confidence to issue an Excessive Heat Watch starting Friday for the
south-central Arizona deserts spreading nearly all other areas for
next Saturday through Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather aviation impacts to consider. Few-Sct CU
developing so far this afternoon over the eastern mountains but
should stay well out of the terminal area. Winds otherwise follow
their typical W/SW direction around 10-15kts for all TAF sites with
some afternoon gustiness around 20-25kts possible.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as strong high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above average (record
highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain fairly typical for mid June,
with some afternoon gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph in the usual
upslope favored locations.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ022-023-027-028.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ020-021-024>026.
CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Generally dry conditions are forecast through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
will return during the latter half of the week and especially next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds from Tucson east to the New Mexico
border are fairly flat today since the atmosphere has stabilized
due to the decreased moisture. Could be a stray sprinkle or wind
gust underneath these clouds near the state line but the forecast
is essentially dry.
On Monday a trough of low pressure will pass to our north. The
trough will enhance lift, but there will be even less moisture to
act on, and thus have kept the forecast for southeast AZ dry
Monday. The trough will bring increased southwest winds Monday
afternoon with gusts 30-35 mph possible, especially in Cochise
County. In addition, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees
cooler.
Daytime temperatures will then begin a warming trend into next
weekend, when longer range models indicate very hot temperatures
similar to or even warmer than what we saw June 4-6.
On the bright side, drier air will allow temperatures to drop to
more comfortable levels beginning Monday night compared to the
past few nights. This trend should hold for much of the work week,
especially east of Tucson.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/00Z. Scattered to broken clouds from 10-12k
ft msl east of KTUS with generally clear skies for the western
deserts. Skies becoming mostly clear area-wide after sunset. Surface
winds W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts, then
diminishing after sunset to less than 10 kts. W/SW winds of 10-20
kts with gusts of 25-30 kts possible. Highest wind gusts will be
near KDUG. Winds will increase again after 18z Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through next weekend. A
weather system traversing across northern Arizona will result in
below normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday. In addition, some
afternoon breezes are expected each afternoon this week. A few spots
could briefly approach critical thresholds Monday afternoon across
Southeast Cochise County. Otherwise, hotter temperatures will return
by the middle of the week, then especially by next weekend with very
well above normal temperatures and possible Haines 6 conditions.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
KD/GL
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
few thunderstorms possible near the New Mexico state line. A slight
chance of thunderstorms exists north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms were added to areas near the New Mexico
state line, mainly through 2-3 pm MST. Cumulus can be seen on
satellite in far eastern Arizona, as well as most of western New
Mexico. Moisture/instability should decrase later this afternoon
as the trough pushes east with time today.
Expect a dry and breezy afternoon across most of northern Arizona.
The strongest winds are forecast across the Coconino Plateau
northwest of Flagstaff, with a few wind gusts in excess of 35 mph
possible.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /251 AM MST/...Breezy conditions are expected
across northern Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough,
currently just off the southern California coast, slowly makes its
way eastward. Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels
of the atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing
today.
Monday...As the trough swings through the region, there will be
enough moisture/instability for a few showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, mainly north
of I-40. The best chances will be along and north of a line from
the Grand Canyon to Window Rock.
Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather is expected through this
period along with a warming trend as high pressure begins to build
into the area. High temperatures will rise to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal by Friday. Additionally, breezy southwest winds may
make for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought record
temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have this ridge
in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are expecting
this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The current
forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...A drier air mass will bring mainly
VFR conds over the next 24 hrs. There will be a isold shra/tsra
mainly across portions of Apache Co. mainly along the Arizona/New
Mexico border from 18z today - 03z Monday. Afternoon SW winds 10-20
kts gusting to 30 kts dcrsg aft sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
isolated thunderstorms near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Near-
critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon over
portions of Coconino and northwest Yavapai counties. On Monday, a
few isolated showers possible along and north of Interstate 40
with the passage of a weather disturbance.
Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwesterly flow will dominate the
weather across Arizona with afternoon humidity values potentially
dropping into the single digits and gusty winds each day. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Taylor/Mottice
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC/McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1009 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
few thunderstorms possible near the New Mexico state line. A slight
chance of thunderstorms exists north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms were added to areas near the New Mexico
state line, mainly through 2-3 pm MST. Cumulus can be seen on
satellite in far eastern Arizona, as well as most of western New
Mexico. Moisture/instability should decrase later this afternoon
as the trough pushes east with time today.
Expect a dry and breezy afternoon across most of northern Arizona.
The strongest winds are forecast across the Coconino Plateau
northwest of Flagstaff, with a few wind gusts in excess of 35 mph
possible.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /251 AM MST/...Breezy conditions are expected
across northern Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough,
currently just off the southern California coast, slowly makes its
way eastward. Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels
of the atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing
today.
Monday...As the trough swings through the region, there will be
enough moisture/instability for a few showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, mainly north
of I-40. The best chances will be along and north of a line from
the Grand Canyon to Window Rock.
Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather is expected through this
period along with a warming trend as high pressure begins to build
into the area. High temperatures will rise to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal by Friday. Additionally, breezy southwest winds may
make for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought record
temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have this ridge
in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are expecting
this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The current
forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...A drier air mass will bring mainly
VFR conds over the next 24 hrs. There will be a isold shra/tsra
mainly across portions of Apache Co. mainly along the Arizona/New
Mexico border from 18z today - 03z Monday. Afternoon SW winds 10-20
kts gusting to 30 kts dcrsg aft sunset. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
isolated thunderstorms near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Near-
critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon over
portions of Coconino and northwest Yavapai counties. On Monday, a
few isolated showers possible along and north of Interstate 40
with the passage of a weather disturbance.
Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwesterly flow will dominate the
weather across Arizona with afternoon humidity values potentially
dropping into the single digits and gusty winds each day. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Taylor/Mottice
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC/McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
this afternoon followed by dry condiitons Monday through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Just a bit moisture hanging on near the New Mexico
border, and what is left should be scrubbed out by southwest flow
by sunset. Could be a few cloud buildups over the higher terrain
east of Tucson this afternoon and just maybe a stray thunderstorm
over the White Mountains, so going forecast looks good.
Valley high temps in the 90s today will feel a bit better than the
past few days since the humidity will be much lower. These
temperatures are still a bit below average for June 12th. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, it will be getting hotter by
the end of the new work week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z. Scattered clouds from 10-12k ft
msl near the New Mexico border this afternoon with slgt chc of
-shra/-tsra, otherwise SKC. Surface winds less than 10 kts...then
becoming W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Wind diminishing after sunset to less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of thunderstorms near the New Mexico
border this afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next weekend. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...The pre-Monsoon thunderstorm action of the
past two days is coming to an end. A few storms are still possible
near the New Mexico border today otherwise drier air continues to
push in from the west over the area. Cooler than normal
temperatures today into Tuesday then a warming trend during the
second half of the work week with the furnace being turned on next
weekend. Models consistent on developing a very strong high
pressure ridge over the area next weekend with 500 mb heights
approaching 600 DM. Based on in house low level thickness value
study highs next weekend have the potential to be hotter than what
occurred earlier this month and will approach record highs on the
17th thru the 19th. Could end up being historic as some places
may end up close to not only all-time June record highs but all-
time yearly record highs. A little early for issuance of an
excessive heat watch but will be getting the message out via
social media platforms today.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
KD
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at
weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
848 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Considerable drying has occurred over the past 24 hours with PWATS
falling to well below an inch. Given the drop in moisture levels
there is now little to no chance of any additional shower or
thunderstorm activity. Skies will remain clear aside from a few mid
level afternoon CU mainly focused over the south-central Arizona
higher terrain. A slow moving upper level trough currently off the
Southwest U.S. coast will move into the region tonight into Monday,
but no additional moisture will be added, so the only result will be
the continued slightly below normal temperatures. I made some minor
adjustments to sky cover to add in more areal CU coverage for this
afternoon. The rest of the forecast is on track with no other
adjustments are needed.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.
This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather impacts through Monday morning with only
Few-Sct CU developing over the mountains this afternoon. Winds
around central Arizona may obtain a cross runway southerly component
near 10kt for a few hours late this morning before veering to the
more traditional W/SW direction. A few gusts 20-25kt will be
possible, but confidence in prolonged stronger gusts is low. Across
SE CA, winds will favor a S/SW type direction though may be light
and variable on occasion.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above
average (and near record highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain
fairly typical for mid June, with some afternoon gusts approaching 20
to 25 mph in the usual upslope favored locations.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather...
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.
This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures late this week through early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- ------- ----
June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015
June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960
June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather impacts through Monday morning with only
Few-Sct CU developing over the mountains this afternoon. Winds
around central Arizona may obtain a cross runway southerly component
near 10kt for a few hours late this morning before veering to the
more traditional W/SW direction. A few gusts 20-25kt will be
possible, but confidence in prolonged stronger gusts is low. Across
SE CA, winds will favor a S/SW type direction though may be light
and variable on occasion.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate the region through the weekend as high
pressure builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidity
levels will generally fall into the single digits each afternoon
while fair overnight recovery becomes poor by the weekend.
Temperatures will also increase substantially with near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday increasing to at least 10F above
average (and near record highs) by Saturday. Winds will remain
fairly typical for mid June, with some afternoon gusts approaching 20
to 25 mph in the usual upslope favored locations.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hernandez
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
309 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move across the region through mid-week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances will be
almost non-existent as drier air continues to filter into southeast
California and southern Arizona. A warming trend will dominate
during the latter half of the week leading to excessively hot
conditions by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently, a fuller latitude trough is centered over the US West
Coast and effectively enveloping the local forecast area under
dryslot subsidence, which is evident in current water vapor imagery.
As a result, precipitation chances have also ended. Forecast models
through the first half of the week remain in good agreement that the
aforementioned East Pacific trough will continue to slowly move
across the SW Conus and be the primary influence on weather and
temperatures. As the southern portion of this trough advances towards
our CWA, there will be demonstrable dynamic forcing. However, any
notable moisture will have been pushed far downstream of our area
such that the precipitation threat over southern Arizona and
southeast California will be almost non-existent. The only impact
this system will have in our CWA will be temperatures slightly
lowering to a near normal range with highs in the 90s to lower 100s
through Tuesday.
This "cooler" weather doesn`t last for long. For the remainder of
the period, a blocking pattern will keep a strong amplified ridge
over the SW US with the GFS and the ECMWF indicating H5 heights
increasing from 584-588dm on Wednesday to 598-600dm Sunday. Even the
NAEFS mean temperatures and geopotential heights output is indicating
heights and temperatures aloft at or above the 99th percentile.
Therefore, as this warming trend continues during the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will rise from 95F-105F on Wednesday to
115F to 120F degrees by Sunday. Given such high confidence, an
Excessive Heat Watch or Warning for next weekend will likely be
issued within the next couple days.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hernandez
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend. Record high temperatures look to
make a return by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions are expected across northern
Arizona this afternoon as an upper-level trough, currently just
off the southern California coast, slowly makes its way eastward.
Ample dry air throughout the lower and upper levels of the
atmosphere should prevent any precipitation from developing today.
Monday...As the trough swings through the region, there will be
enough moisture/instability for a few showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon hours, mainly north
of I-40. The best chances will be along and north of a line from
the Grand Canyon to Window Rock.
Tuesday through Friday...Dry weather is expected through this
period along with a warming trend as high pressure begins to build
into the area. High temperatures will rise to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal by Friday. Additionally, breezy southwest winds may
make for near critical to critical fire weather conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday...All the major global models are in agreement
with a very strong ridge of high pressure settling over Arizona.
This is still a week out, so the exact strength and placement of
the high is subject to change. However, early signs point to
record high temperatures returning to Arizona. This ridge is
forecast to be even stronger than the last one that brought
record temperatures to the state. The NAEFS and GEFS mean have
this ridge in the 99th to 100th percentile, meaning the models are
expecting this ridge to be abnormally strong, even for June. The
current forecast is calling for temperatures to generally be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A drier air mass will bring
mainly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area of the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Afternoon Southwest winds 10-20 kts
gusting to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will move over Arizona today with
just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the
Arizona/New Mexico border. On Monday, a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40 with the passage of a
weather disturbance. Southwest winds in the 10 to 20 mph range each
afternoon.
Tuesday through Thursday...Dry southwesterly flow will dominate the
weather across Arizona with afternoon humidity values potentially
dropping into the single digits and gusty winds each day. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Mottice
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
this afternoon followed by dry condiitons Monday through next
weekend. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The pre-Monsoon thunderstorm action of the past two
days is coming to an end. A few storms are still possible near the
New Mexico border today otherwise drier air continues to push in
from the west over the area. Cooler than normal temperatures today
into Tuesday then a warming trend during the second half of the work
week with the furnace being turned on next weekend. Models
consistent on developing a very strong high pressure ridge over the
area next weekend with 500 mb heights approaching 600 DM. Based on
in house low level thickness value study highs next weekend have the
potential to be hotter than what occurred earlier this month and
will approach record highs on the 17th thru the 19th. Could end up
being historic as some places may end up close to not only all-time
June record highs but all-time yearly record highs. A little early
for issuance of an excessive heat watch but will be getting the
message out via social media platforms today.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
Scattered clouds from 10-12k ft msl near the New Mexico border this
afternoon with slgt chc of -shra/-tsra, otherwise SKC. Surface winds
less than 10 kts...then becoming W/SW this afternoon at 10-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts. Wind diminishing after sunset to less than 10
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of thunderstorms near the New Mexico
border this afternoon. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next weekend. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
929 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next few days
keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal. Drier air will
keep southern Arizona and southeast California dry. A warming trend
takes hold during the latter half of the week leading to excessively
hot conditions next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier Storm activity ended mainly before sunset due to drier air
moving into the region. The drying trend is evident in the 00Z
soundings. Also evident in the water vapor imagery (though it doesn`t
depict shallow moisture well since it`s more sensitive to
higher/colder regions of the atmosphere). Speaking of water vapor
imagery, there is a well defined upper low centered just off the
southwest CA coast. This feature is within the southern branch of a
larger upper trough - the brunt of which is over western Canada and
the northwest CONUS. Downstream of the trough is a high amplitude
ridge. The trough has already started to spread drier air over the
forecast area and will continue to do that overnight. This will end
any precip chances. As the southern portion of the trough advances
inland, there will be a minor increase in moisture on Monday but not
enough for any precip threat over southern AZ and/or southeast CA.
Otherwise, there will be very little discernible impact on the
sensible weather - perhaps very slight cooling Monday. This is
because the system is weakening as it moves inland. Plus the air will
be drier than it has been the past couple days. Thereafter, it`s a
warming trend. Forecasts in good shape. No changes at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...issued 224 pm MST/PDT...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Weak upper low centered near southwest CA coast spreading dry air
over the deserts for an end to the storm activity tonight through
Sunday with clear skies. Surface winds tonight and Sunday will
largely be a repeat of pattern from past 24 hours. An exception is
the Imperial Valley with westerly winds prevailing tonight through
Sunday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms may occur near the New Mexico border
Sunday followed by dry condiitons Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will remain near normal or a few degrees below normal
through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon across parts of southeast Arizona have ended late this
evening. Still looking at some debris cloudiness east of Tucson,
with clear skies elsewhere. General clearing will continue overnight
tonight, with a few cloud build ups and isolated thunderstorms near
the New Mexico border tomorrow afternoon. Current forecast handled
these trends well, so no updates expected this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/06Z. Cloud decks from Tucson eastward will
range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or scattered clouds above 15k
ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning. Surface wind this afternoon
wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur
mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail
Monday through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting
a baggy upper trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly
flow aloft Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the
central/srn Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions
will commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into
next weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the
latter part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar
with the depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern
Arizona/ wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps
thru Tue will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter
temps will prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers will continue over northern
Coconino county through Saturday evening. Otherwise...dry and breezy
conditions are forecast Sunday, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms north of I-40 on Monday. A drying/warming trend will
commence Tuesday, and will continue through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly decreasing this evening...with
isolated showers expected til midnight over N. Coconin county. Grids
are in great shape, and no updates are planned at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../323pm mst/...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
continue to develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino
counties where MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg.
However, weak deep layer shear is keeping this convection
disorganized and well below severe limits. This activity should
continue through the late afternoon hours, then begin to wane around
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday...with southerly winds gusting to 30kts Sunday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM/BAK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin/BAK
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing
mostly north-to-east of the Tucson metro area this afternoon.
Various 11/12Z NWP models suggest the bulk of these showers and
thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity
during the next several hours. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east to the New Mexico border
this evening. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms then
continues late tonight into Sunday evening mainly near the New
Mexico border.
11/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting a baggy upper
trough over the desert southwest Monday. Stronger swly flow aloft
Monday will push deeper moisture well newd into the central/srn
Rockies and adjacent high plains. Precip-free conditions will
commence Monday, and dry conditions will continue Tuesday into next
weekend as high pressure aloft gradually amplifies during the latter
part of the upcoming week. The GFS/ECMWF were quite similar with the
depiction of at least a 597 dm high to be centered over ern Arizona/
wrn New Mexico by next Saturday. The upshot...high temps thru Tue
will generally a few degs or so below normal, then hotter temps will
prevail Fri-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity nwd/ewd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight thru Sunday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to around 45
kts will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud
decks from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear
skies or scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday
morning. Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times
except near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson northward, and eastward to the New Mexico
border. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will occur mostly
near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions will then prevail Monday
through next Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures return
Wednesday into next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this
evening around sunset. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity while southwest 20FT winds will increase
to a sustained 15 to 20 mph range. Monday a few isolated showers
possible along and north of Interstate 40.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds in from Tuesday
onward with hot and dry weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over
northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties through the late
afternoon hours. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms north of I-40 Monday. A
drying/warming trend will commence Tuesday, and will continue
through the end of next weekend (June 19).
&&
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over northern Yavapai and western Coconino counties where
MUCAPE values are ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak deep
layer shear is keeping this convection disorganized and well below
severe limits. This activity should continue through the late
afternoon hours, then begin to wane around sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will sag just west of the Baja
Peninsula. Models prog Arizona to get dry slotted with little to no
convection anticipated. However, given the proximity of the trough
and subsequent height gradient, breezy to windy conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona. Winds should remain below advisory
levels.
Monday, the aforementioned trough will weaken as it lifts north over
Arizona. The best upper forcing should remain confined to areas
north of I-40. Upper dynamics (albeit weak) combined with lingering
moisture and instability should be sufficient to warrant a slight
chance of Monday afternoon thunderstorms north of I-40.
Tuesday through Saturday, an upper level ridge will build over the
southwestern United States. This will lead to a drying and warming
trend over Arizona through next weekend (June 19).
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for continued isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon. After 02Z showers and
thunderstorms will diminish. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
224 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be displaced to the east over the next several
days resulting in somewhat cooler weather through early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be pushed well east as drier air
moves back into the region. After several relatively comfortable
days with near normal temperatures through the middle of next week,
excessively hot weather will likely settle back into the area by the
end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As earlier thought, storm activity did form over portions of south-
central and southeast AZ over the last few hours...just not over the
Rim and White Mtns but the along the foothills/mountains across
Pinal/Maricopa/Pima Counties along I-8/I-10. SPC mesoanalysis,
Suominet PWV and TPW satellite imagery indicated the main PWAT
axis/concentration south of the Phoenix Metro and storms still
persist across portions of Pinal County at time of writing. South to
southwesterly steering flow aloft has lofted debris cirrus over the
Phoenix area and for the time being, stabilized the area enough to
prevent any northward advancement of the remaining isolated storms
over the open deserts to the south. Early afternoon IR imagery
depicts a clear boundary between the drier and better mixed portions
of far southwest AZ and southeast CA and the storms/debris clouds
over south-central AZ. Storms so far today managed to form in a
slight deformation zone aloft as flow further to the west begins to
turn ahead of an approaching upper trough and then splits over
central AZ with the expansive anticyclonic flow over the central
CONUS.
For the rest of this evening, still favorable mixed-layer CAPE
surface and upper difluence will allow for additional isolated storm
development east of the areas where storms formed so far today.
Cannot rule out a thundershower or two making their way northward
into the Phoenix-metro through 6pm or so, otherwise we`ll remain
under the debris cloudiness and occasional outflow driven breezes.
Conditions will continue to further mix out across the western
forecast zones as drier air is advected into the area with continued
breezy south winds. Activity should quickly dissipate after sunset
and loss of daytime heating, with clouds continuing to stream
north/northeastward before clearing out overnight.
Forecast models during the first half of next week remain in good
agreement that a modest cold core trough will pass through the
Southwest keeping H5 heights temporarily in a 580-588dm range.
Although dynamic forcing with this system looks to be ample, any
better quality moisture will have been repositioned downstream of
southeast California and Arizona. This should be true for the entire
atmospheric column, and little other than a brief frontal cloud band
would be anticipated. However, the benefit from this system will be
temperatures hovering in a near normal range with highs only in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.
Unfortunately, the western hemisphere flow pattern will become far
more blocked and amplified during the latter half of next week and
through the weekend. With mean negative height anomalies roughly
centered over the NE Pacific and northern Quebec, strong ridging
will build throughout the intermountain west. Not only is there
seasonal preference for this configuration, but essentially every
NAEFS member indicates an almost identical pattern yielding
excellent forecast confidence. The biggest question will be how warm
it gets as the 00Z operational GFS and handful of ensemble members
indicate H5 heights eclipsing the 600dm threshold over the four
corners next weekend. Regardless, NAEFS mean output for next weekend
already suggests heights/temperatures aloft in the 99th percentile,
and its not atypical for the warmer extreme parts of an ensemble
system to verify this time of year. Thus, its already a very good
bet that excessive heat and afternoon highs at least 115F will
return by the end of next week; and not out of the question if the
GFS type heights come to fruition that someone could be making a run
at the 120F mark sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should only impact areas south of
the Phoenix metro through the rest of the afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to totally rule a shower or storm to briefly
affect southern portions of the metro area. Breezy southerly winds
will eventually turn westerly this evening for the Phoenix terminals
and remain westerly through much of the overnight. After midnight
the area will be under drying conditions and clearing skies. Gusty
southerly winds will affect southeast California including KBLH and
KIPL through around midnight with winds 10 kts or less thereafter.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Dry air will dominate through the forecast period as high pressure
builds back over the region. As a result, minimum humidities over
the lower deserts will generally fall in the single digits each
afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday, becoming warmer than average on Wednesday with
continued warming into the early part of the weekend. High
temperatures across the deserts will reach above 110 degrees
starting Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but afternoon
breeziness will be common with some gusts approaching 20 15 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Nolte/MO
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1218 PM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Convection is firing over the higher terrain of Yavapai
county and western Coconino county early this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is also developing over southern Apache
county in the vicinity of the White Mountains. Think the
convection over Yavapai/western Coconino counties will expand in
coverage this afternoon due to increasing instability.
Updated the forecast to expand scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
into the North Rim area based on current obs/trends. The remaining
weather elements are in good shape. The updated forecast has been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with scattered coverage over Yavapai and western
Coconino counties. On Sunday drier air moves in ending chances
for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Drier southwest flow returns later today and
especially Sunday, with breezy conditions and decreasing shower
activity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on
Monday with a passing trough, before a strong warming and drying
trend for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Current visible satellite imagery shows convective
clouds beginning to develop over Yavapai and western Coconino
counties. Furthermore, a mid/high level cloud deck over most of
Navajo and all of Apache counties should continue to lift north of
the region through the afternoon.
The latest high-res models prog increasing instability over
Yavapai and western Coconino counties today. Furthermore, with
dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s, think enough lift and
instability should initiate convection along the Mogollon Rim this
afternoon. Weak deep layer shear should keep convection below
severe limits.
Updated the forecast based on current obs/trends. Increased the
temporal resolution of pops in order to try and best time the
convection across northern Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast is on track. The updated products have been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/... Low pressure off the southern
California coast will approach Arizona over the coming days,
eventually crossing the state on Monday. In the meantime, chances
for showers will continue again today, though expected to be less
widespread than we experienced on Friday. Even less activity is
likely for Sunday, though gustier southwest winds are anticipated.
Monday appears to be our last chance for showers in the 7-day
forecast as the trough passes across the region. In the wake of
the passing trough, drier air and much warmer daytime temperatures
will return under strengthening high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Southerly flow and lingering
moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. Wind gust up to 35 kts possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with isolated coverage in northwestern Arizona and more
scattered coverage in northeastern Arizona. On Sunday drier air
moves in ending chances for thunderstorm activity.
Monday through Wednesday...A weak disturbance brings isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern third of the state.
High pressure builds in from Tuesday onward with hot and dry weather.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Bohlin
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward into this evening. A few thunderstorms may occur near the
New Mexico border Sunday followed by dry conditons Monday through
Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near normal or a few
degrees below normal through Tuesday, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and several HRRR solutions
suggest that showers/tstms will develop near the Tucson metro area
eastward/southward later this morning into early this afternoon.
These cells will then move quickly nwd/newd, with the main concern
for potentially damaging wind gusts. The bulk of these showers/
tstms will end this evening.
There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA from KTUS vicinity ewd/swd into this
evening, then isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly near the New Mexico border
late tonight into Sunday morning. Brief wind gusts to around 45 kts
will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloud decks
from Tucson eastward will range from 7k-10k ft msl. Clear skies or
scattered clouds above 15k ft msl west of KTUS into Sunday morning.
Surface wind this afternoon wly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25
kts. Surface wind mainly less than 10 kts at other times except near
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening,
especially from Tucson east and south. Isolated thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon will occur mostly near the New Mexico border. Dry
conditions will then prevail Monday through Friday. Daytime
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal into early next
week, then hotter temperatures return Wednesday into next Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /234 AM MST/...Precipitable water values remain
well above mid-June normals this morning with values mostly in the
1.00"-1.50" range. Water vapor imagery showed an upper level low
approaching southern CA. Drier air will start to push in from the
west as the day progresses, but enough will be around across the
eastern 2/3rds of the area for isolated valley/scattered mountains
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are forecast to
be below 1" on Sunday with a slight chance of storms relegated to
the White mountains. High temperatures this weekend will remain
several degrees below normal.
Upper level trof will push across the state on Monday providing
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and further drying of the
atmosphere.
Upper ridge strengthens over the area Tuesday through Friday
resulting in warmer daytime high temperatures.
Outside of this forecast package are likely hotter daytime
temperatures as the upper ridge continues to strengthen over the
area. Highs next weekend could rival what occurred earlier this
month.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1042 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today
along with morning drizzle. There is a slight chance of a
mountain thunderstorm today. The morning low cloud pattern will
slowly diminish through the week. A significant heat wave is
possible later next weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
Main forecast concerns for today will be the deep marine layer
clearing of the stratus (or lack thereof), along with the slight
chance of thunderstorms over the Ventura/SBA County mountains.
The slight chance of thunderstorms for the areas mentioned above
still looks warranted, with the NAM showing around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. The NAM doesn`t spit out any QPF in these areas, but the GFS
and HRRR hint at some convective precip late this afternoon. No
mention of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains in the
official forecast, but it`s not inconceivable for something to
develop there this afternoon, with the NAM showing decent
instability in this area as well. Thinking that the most likely
scenario will be some buildups, with possibly a shower over the
Ventura/SBA mountains, but likely no thunder. No changes were made
to the thunderstorm forecast.
Latest soundings indicated a marine layer close to 5000 ft deep.
With the deep marine layer and a strong eddy in place, updated the
sky forecast for today to keep the coast/valley areas from SBA to
LA mostly cloudy all day, although there could be a few break of
sun later this afternoon. There will also continue to be some
patchy drizzle, but any measurable amounts should remain mostly
confined to the foothills.
No other changes were made to the forecast. There will once again
be some local advisory level wind gusts today in the Antelope
Valley with strong onshore flow. After today, the main forecast
concern will continue to be the possibility of a major heat wave
next weekend into the following week. Also the possibility of a
weak sundowner Tuesday night.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
Still plenty of low clouds on Monday...but the marine inversion
will be weaker as the result of the low passage and this will
allow for better clearing everywhere xcp the beaches. There is a
slight chc that this is the wrong idea and that the marine layer
will be so deep and the upper inversion not strong enough to hold
the clouds together...if this comes true then there will be
reverse clearing which will bring sunny skies to the coasts and
mostly cloudy skies to the vlys.
Broad weakly cyclonic flow assoc with a cool pac NW upper low
moves over the state on Tuesday. This will result in a typical
marine layer pattern with the morning clouds and a sunny
afternoon.
Max temps will be well blo normal today and Monday due to the
onshore flow extensive clouds. Max temps will rebound slightly
Tuesday with the higher hgts and greater sunshine but they will
remain blo normal.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
Not much excitement for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper low
moves down the Oregon coast and tilts the flow over Srn Ca into a
more SW to NE orientation. There will not be much change in the
weather from Tuesday on both days. Look for typical night through
morning low clouds and fog pattern with max temps close to normal.
The real story of the xtnd fcst is the Friday through Sunday
portion. A large upper high will slowly press westward through the
period hgts will rise through the period from 582 DM on Friday to
594 DM on Sunday. The onshore flow will weaken and the marine
layer clouds will diminish. Max temps will rise each day. On
Friday max temps will be 1 to 3 degrees above normal and by
Sunday max temps will 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Next Monday
looks warmer still. This could unfold into a major heat event and
people should monitor the forecast for the latest developments.
&&
.AVIATION...12/18Z...
Mid/upper level trough of low pressure over the area will shift
east. Upper level moderate south winds will become moderate
northwest while mid level light south winds become light north-
northwest after 13/05z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over
the Ventura and Santa Barbara county mountains between
12/20-13/02z with tops 32kft and will move east 10kt or less. Weak
to moderate onshore pressure gradient through the period. Weak
capping marine inversion with organized cloud tops approximately
5kft this morning will continue weak with disorganized cloud tops
between 2-4kft Monday morning.
Marine layer at LAX at 1400Z is 4995 feet deep and the inversion
top is at 5850 feet with a temp of 10.7 degrees C.
KLAX...Chance cigs 035-040 through 13/09z then chance cigs 028
between 13/09-13/20z.
KBUR...Chance cigs 019 through 12/20z then chance cigs 035
12/20-13/04z. Chance cigs 024-030 after 13/04z.
virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...12/200 PM...
Small craft advisory conditions for winds are not expected through
Monday morning. Northwest winds are expected to develop and
increase Monday afternoon and there is a chance small craft
advisory conditions will exist at times from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas island Monday night through Friday. Northwest locally
generated seas will build to around 10 feet from Piedras Blancas
to San Nicolas island Tuesday and subside below 10 feet Wednesday
evening. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-220 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will build near shore through the week. Small
craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions area not expected but
extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are
likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sukup
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...Sweet
weather.gov/losangeles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area today
along with morning drizzle. There is a slight chance of a
mountain thunderstorm today. The morning low cloud pattern will
slowly diminish through the week. A significant heat wave is
possible later next weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
Main forecast concerns for today will be the deep marine layer
clearing of the stratus (or lack thereof), along with the slight
chance of thunderstorms over the Ventura/SBA County mountains.
The slight chance of thunderstorms for the areas mentioned above
still looks warranted, with the NAM showing around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. The NAM doesn`t spit out any QPF in these areas, but the GFS
and HRRR hint at some convective precip late this afternoon. No
mention of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains in the
official forecast, but it`s not inconceivable for something to
develop there this afternoon, with the NAM showing decent
instability in this area as well. Thinking that the most likely
scenario will be some buildups, with possibly a shower over the
Ventura/SBA mountains, but likely no thunder. No changes were made
to the thunderstorm forecast.
Latest soundings indicated a marine layer close to 5000 ft deep.
With the deep marine layer and a strong eddy in place, updated the
sky forecast for today to keep the coast/valley areas from SBA to
LA mostly cloudy all day, although there could be a few break of
sun later this afternoon. There will also continue to be some
patchy drizzle, but any measurable amounts should remain mostly
confined to the foothills.
No other changes were made to the forecast. There will once again
be some local advisory level wind gusts today in the Antelope
Valley with strong onshore flow. After today, the main forecast
concern will continue to be the possibility of a major heat wave
next weekend into the following week. Also the possibility of a
weak sundowner Tuesday night.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
Still plenty of low clouds on Monday...but the marine inversion
will be weaker as the result of the low passage and this will
allow for better clearing everywhere xcp the beaches. There is a
slight chc that this is the wrong idea and that the marine layer
will be so deep and the upper inversion not strong enough to hold
the clouds together...if this comes true then there will be
reverse clearing which will bring sunny skies to the coasts and
mostly cloudy skies to the vlys.
Broad weakly cyclonic flow assoc with a cool pac NW upper low
moves over the state on Tuesday. This will result in a typical
marine layer pattern with the morning clouds and a sunny
afternoon.
Max temps will be well blo normal today and Monday due to the
onshore flow extensive clouds. Max temps will rebound slightly
Tuesday with the higher hgts and greater sunshine but they will
remain blo normal.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
Not much excitement for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper low
moves down the Oregon coast and tilts the flow over Srn Ca into a
more SW to NE orientation. There will not be much change in the
weather from Tuesday on both days. Look for typical night through
morning low clouds and fog pattern with max temps close to normal.
The real story of the xtnd fcst is the Friday through Sunday
portion. A large upper high will slowly press westward through the
period hgts will rise through the period from 582 DM on Friday to
594 DM on Sunday. The onshore flow will weaken and the marine
layer clouds will diminish. Max temps will rise each day. On
Friday max temps will be 1 to 3 degrees above normal and by
Sunday max temps will 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Next Monday
looks warmer still. This could unfold into a major heat event and
people should monitor the forecast for the latest developments.
&&
.AVIATION...12/12Z...
Marine layer at LAX at 11Z was 3500 feet deep. The top of the
marine inversion top was at 5400 feet with a temp of 11 degs C.
Skies were cloudy all the way to the coastal slopes. Cigs were
at high MVFR or VFR levels in most areas, with IFR conditions
confined to the foothills and slopes. Expect cigs to linger
through the day in most areas, although conds will rise to VFR
levels in most areas w of the mountains. Expect widespread high
MVFR cigs across the region tonight.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12z TAF. There is a 20 percent
chance that MVFR cigs will linger through 20z. There is a 20
to 30 percent chance that cigs will be in the MVFR category
tonight/Mon morning. There is a 20 percent chance that se winds
will rise above 10 kt through 18z this morning.
KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 12z TAF. There is a 20
percent chance that MVFR cigs will linger through 21z.
&&
.MARINE...12/900 AM...
Small craft advisory conditions for winds are not expected through
Monday morning. Northwest winds are expected to develop and
increase Monday afternoon and there is a chance small craft
advisory conditions will exist at times from Piedras Blancas to
San Nicolas island Monday night through Friday. Northwest locally
generated seas will build to around 10 feet from Piedras Blancas
to San Nicolas island Tuesday and subside below 10 feet Wednesday
evening. Otherwise an active storm track over the Southern Ocean
last week had generated seas within 190-220 degrees relative to
Ventura. The swells will build near shore through the week. Small
craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions area not expected but
extra currents and surging along exposed south facing shores are
likely.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Sukup/ASR
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...Sweet
weather.gov/losangeles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
Currently, 20Z visible and WV imagery show a modified North Pacific
Low over the Eastern Northern Plains into portions of the Upper MS
Valley. A warm boundary stretches from MN to Illinois into the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, a weak cold boundary lags behind the system
through Western Nebraska into Colorado. A lee side low is
positioned over southeast Colorado ahead of a minor lead shortwave.
A fairly well defined upper low continues to spin over the Southern
Plains.
Weak lift is making its way around the low over the Southern Plains
and has continued to support thunderstorms with instability of 2000
J/kg and weak shear of 20-25kts. Some of this energy may work into
southern portions of the forecast area, so have added some POPs
through late afternoon but don`t expect activity to persist as peak
heating subsides. Out west, the previously mentioned wave will be
working into the Northern portions of the Central Plains into
tomorrow morning and afternoon. Have actually reduced POPs near
term a bit as confidence in getting too much precip before late
morning into the afternoon on Monday is not looking as good as it
previously has. Weak forcing over the area with the bulk of
vorticity off to the north of northeastern KS leads to lower
confidence in more than slight POPs over northeast KS. Also,
confidence in MCS development overnight coming in from Nebraska
continues to be the main question as to whether storms hold together
or if any outflow ends up over the forecast area. At this time, it
looks like we could mainly be seeing any thunderstorm and showers
later in the morning into the early afternoon time frame as
additional lift comes from the slowly advancing cold front from
western Nebraska. Not expecting severe storms at this point since
lapse rates are only in the 5.5 C/km range and again shear profiles
look weak. Given the expected cloud cover, have highs less than
recent days mainly in the upper 80s. Expecting lows to be similar
tonight with no significant air mass change taking place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
Main concern for the period will be thunderstorms, some strong to
severe from Monday night through Tuesday night. Monday night models
continue to point toward the development of an MCS over the western
high plains then moving east northeast across Nebraska and Kansas.
The early morning MCS will likely have an effect on where boundaries
will be located and how long clouds and any precipitation hang
around. This will likely have an affect on destabilization ahead of
the approaching cold front across northeast Kansas on Tuesday. Shear
is sufficient as well as forecast instability for storms to be
strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Main hazards
look to be damaging winds and large hail. A tornado is also possible
especially across east central Kansas where helicity is favorable.
A relatively quiet weather period is seen from Wednesday night
through Sunday. Upper level riding over the central US keeps any
chances for storms very slim, although the occasional model brings
slight chances during the afternoon some days. Overall, a pretty dry
and hot period with temperatures topping out in the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016
Going with a VFR forecast right now for the terminals. It does
appear that mostly subsidence will remain in control but an
approaching upper wave will eventually help to saturate mid levels
so forecasting mostly a mid level cloud layer overspreading the
terminals by morning. Unsure on actual coverage so only going
with SCT at this time. As winds calm tonight, expecting some HZ or
BR at least around the KTOP/KFOE terminals.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Heller/53
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
Surface analysis indicates Cold front approximate from northern
Colorado across western Nebraska with prefrontal trough extending
south across eastern Colorado. Radar shows slow moving/back
building thunderstorms ahead of main front in our northwest CWA,
while satellite shows CU field developing into NW Kansas.
This afternoon-tonight: Convection already underway is currently
matching trends in RAP/HRRR along with high resolution convective
allowing models (ARW/NMM). RAP analysis indicated CAP already
weakening across much of our CWA with ML CIN approaching zero.
Main axis of forcing is near frontal zone, and trend should be
towards convection filling in across the west and spreading
eastward. Initially convective environment (with high DCAPE and
10kft dry adiabatic layer) will support elevated microburst
potential, and increasing CAPE associated with Tds in the 60s will
support a few stronger updrafts. Shear is on the weaker end, so
stronger storms will tend to be more pulsy in nature. Front will
transition south, aided by possible cold pool with additional
activity developing with easterly flow north of front and moderate
elevated instability through the night.
Mean flow 5-15kt will support slow storm motions will tend to be
on the slower side. There is a anomalously moist air mass in
place with PWATs already in excess of 1.5" according to RAP
analysis. Strong moist inflow towards the frontal zone will lead
to training and backbuilding of thunderstorms. With thunderstorm
activity expected to increase in coverage and slowly spread across
the region the threat for flooding warranted Flash Flood Watch
issuance through tonight.
Monday: Majority of guidance supports eastward trend in nighttime
convective activity Monday morning with a possible lull through
midday. Stronger large scale forcing associated with approaching
upper level trough will support redevelopment Monday afternoon,
with lull serving to prime atmosphere with increasing
instability through the day. As upper low moves east stalled front
will lift north with increasing veering supporting stronger shear
and potential super cell development. All modes of severe weather
will be possible Monday afternoon, with significant hail and some
tornadoes possible.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
During the extended period, expect predominantly sunny skies and
above normal temperatures, as an upper level ridge influence the
High Plains Region. Afternoon highs will reach into the mid to
upper 90s while overnight lows will range between the mid 50s to
the mid 60s. The exception looks to be on Saturday, where models
show a small weather disturbance moving across the area. This
feature will produce slighting cooler temperatures, highs around
90, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in
the northeastern part of the Tri-State Area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2016
VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the first
6-9hr of the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity is already
developing in NE Colorado (apparent on radar) and this should
increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread eastward
towards both KGLD and KMCK. Confidence has increased enough to
fine tune mention/timing of peak thunderstorm period in the TAFs
at both terminals. A few strong/severe storms will be possible,
but this would mainly be in the evening/overnight, and it is still
too far out to include TEMPO mention.
I have less confidence in cigs/vis, as some guidance is hitting
on the very good moist return late tonight and attempting to
produce IFR cigs/LIFR vis after 09z through late Monday morning.
These lower conditions will be dependent on thunderstorms
clearing, and there is still an indication that thunderstorms may
linger near both terminals after 09z. Due to the low confidence I
kept CIGS 3000kft or higher and vis 6sm or higher. This will need
to be monitored.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>003-013>015-
027>029-041-042.
CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.
NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR