Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/10/16
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
542 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist for most sites through the period
once again. The only exception may be some patchy fog at ADF near
sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 66 89 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Camden AR 67 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison AR 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
Hot Springs AR 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
Little Rock AR 67 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
Monticello AR 68 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 20
Mount Ida AR 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 20
Mountain Home AR 65 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Newport AR 67 90 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
Russellville AR 66 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
Searcy AR 66 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart AR 68 91 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...226
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure has moved east of Arkansas. Light east and southeast
winds are expected today across the area. Patchy fog around ADF
will dissipate rapidly this morning. Mainly high cirrus will be
seen today. VFR conditions will continue through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 87 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 87 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
617 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
Weak upper flow continues over the Central Plains this afternoon.
A weak upper trough was evident in the water vapor imagery over
western Nebraska into to the Texas Panhandle. Another weakening
circulation was moving across southeast Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma. Surface dry line was located over the high plains and
will move very little. Short term models differ with convection
this evening with the HRRR and and the RUC moving in some
weakening convection from the west during the late evening hours
into north central Kansas. The experimental HRRR keeps
precipitation to the west and diminishes it before moving to the
east of U.S. 81 Highway tonight. Will continue with small
precipitation chances in north central Kansas tonight. Lows
tonight will continue to be mild with readings in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Friday, Another good warm up is expected with the thermal ridge
extending into central Kansas have increased highs slightly into the
mid 90s with lower 90s elsewhere across northeast and east central
Kansas. The afternoon heat index will reach near 100 degrees across
parts of north central and northeast Kansas with the rest of the
area in the mid to upper 90s heat index. Weak upper trough/wave
moves across central and east Kansas on Friday. There is little in
the way of surface moisture convergence with the absence of any
boundary and a small EML remains in place through much of the day.
The upper trough fills as it moves east with the NAM the strongest
with the upper energy. Cannot rule out an isolated late afternoon
storm out in central Kansas, but confidence is not high enough to
include in forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For Friday night through Sunday, the main question with the
forecast is whether a lobe of vorticity gets trapped within the
upper ridge over the state. This idea was not in the operational
models yesterday, and now have almost a weak closed low aloft
near the forecast area during the weekend. Therefore confidence is
not all that great. Forecast soundings suggest the airmass will be
conditionally unstable with little inhibition to convection. So if
this piece of energy is near the area, there could be some
diurnally driven convection Saturday and/or Sunday. For now have
left POPs around 10 percent but later shifts may need to increase
chances if models continue to leave behind this energy within the
ridge. The forecast appears to be in good shape regarding forecast
temps as there isn`t much chance in the solution`s thermal
profiles. Highs are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s as
forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to around 825MB.
Continued southerly flow and dewpoints holding in the 60s
overnight support the lows forecast for temps bottoming out around
70 degrees.
Precip chances should be on the increase for Sunday night through
much of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and energy from
the west passes through the plains. An initial shortwave is
progged to pass through the central plains Sunday night and early
Monday. Then a more amplified system moves slowly across the
plains through Wednesday. The medium range models have come into
better agreement in closing off an upper low just north of the
forecast area by Wednesday. Think the better chances for precip
will be Monday through Tuesday night as the upper wave initially
moves out from the southern Rockies and a surface wave lifts
across the area. After Wednesday, there are question on where the
closed low drifts to and a possible dry slot working into the
area. Have held onto some small POPs Wednesday night and across
eastern KS for Thursday to account for the closed low in the
region. The models show temps trending cooler for next week as the
upper system moves through the region. However am a little
concerned temps could be to cool as cold raw model guidance seems
to be skewing the forecast cooler when there is no significant
cold air advection. This is probably due to the models generating
precip during these periods. Unless it is cloudy and raining all
day, it is hard to see why temps would not continue to be in the
lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. With this in mind have kept
highs in the upper 80s and around 90 rather than the middle 80s.
There are signs of increasing cold air advection by Wednesday as
the upper closed low moves east of the forecast area. With this in
mind, have shown a little more of a cool down for the later part
of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
The gusty southerly winds from this afternoon will diminish early
this evening. Some models still suggest that there may be a slight
chance for some marginal LLWS overnight, however confidence is not
high enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect
the southerly winds to increase once again by late Friday morning,
with gusts around 20kts through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Sfc high pressure in control this afternoon over northeast Kansas.
Overall cooler temps today with light northerly winds and readings
near 80 degrees. Unfortunately this trend is temporary as the ridge
axis builds eastward while a weak sfc trough develops over the
western high plains. Coupled with an embedded shortwave trough
entering CO per satellite imagery may trigger a few thunderstorms
over western and central Kansas this evening. There is a slight
chance a few of these storms may impact north central KS after
midnight per the latest few runs of the HRRR and the persistence
from the NAM and GFS. Confidence is lacking on the available
moisture with an abundance of dry air throughout the column so will
keep the slight pops at this time. Severe weather is not expected
given the weak wind profiles and elevated instability up to 1000
J/KG.
There may be a few showers lingering into sunrise Wednesday, but
otherwise another sunny and warm afternoon. Sfc pressure gradient
increases with the sfc low centered over eastern CO. Southerly winds
are stronger in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph while warm air
advection boosts temps back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Wednesday night through Friday...Region continues to transition
out of northwesterly flow as the upper ridge begins to amplify
over the Central Plains. Still some indication of a weak wave
moving off the Rockies and generating showers and storms over the
high plains and moving eastward as the night progresses, but not
highly confident these will make it this far east and have kept
rain chances to less than 15 percent in the west. Temperatures
start to climb into the 90s, rising a few degrees from Thursday
into Friday. Dewpoints also start to climb, and overnight lows
approach the 70 degree mark, with the start of a warm and muggy
pattern.
Friday night through Tuesday...Upper ridge is in full swing
extending into the Northern Plains by the weekend. Highs in the
90s and lows near 70 continue. As waves move across the northern
states, may be enough to start to move the ridge east and weaken
by Sunday night and will reintroduce slight rain chances. Front
still progged to drop southward into the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday, with higher rain chances for that forecast period. Could
also mean high temps drop back into the 80s, if front can get this
far southward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with southeasterly winds increasing during the day on Wednesday.
Some models are showing the potential for some low-level wind
shear concerns by late Wednesday night, so we will need to
continue to monitor that potential.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
952 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central ND
through about 10 UTC. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty
winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds, especially in western and
north central ND.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
803 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central ND
through about 09 UTC. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty
winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds, especially in western and
north central ND.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
458 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 458 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Quick update to add a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms to far north central ND centered on Rolla for the
late afternoon and early evening. That`s in respect to showers
and weak thunderstorms moving out of southwest Manitoba and into
far northern ND just before 22 UTC. Surface dewpoints range from
the mid 40s to the lower 50s F ahead of that activity, yielding
SBCAPE less than 500 J/kg per the SPC mesoscale analysis, so we
don`t expect much if any strength to that activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Model soundings have a good cap in place across the region and
convection has been slow to organize. A weak shortwave trough is
undercutting the h500 ridge over the northern plains Wednesday
afternoon. This feature is supporting some organized convection
across northeast South Dakota bit not in North Dakota. Have
removed the chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight other than the far north central where a weak frontal
boundary has lingered and may maintain weak showers for the
evening.
Tonight low level profiles suggested some patchy fog is possible
in the James river valley and added patchy fog there after
midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The extended forecast will focus on thunderstorms and warm
temperatures. As the h500 ridge moves over the northern plains
Thursday, very warm temperatures are expected across west and
central North Dakota. By Thursday afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form along a weak cold front moving into western North
Dakota that will finally break the cap. While instability is
sufficient the shear is marginal. It is expected thunderstorms
have a marginal threat to become severe Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.
Friday looks generally dry in the wake of the cold front which
should limit convection to the james river valley and ending by
afternoon.
Eventually this front will end up as an east-west boundary across
northern South Dakota on Saturday. This will bring somewhat cooler
air into the north, while upper 80s to lower 90s reside across
the south. Southeast return wind flow will increase moisture
across the region during the day Saturday. This will set up a
better chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday night
as low pressure deepens across southwest North Dakota. The
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table still shows precipitable
water in the climatological 99th percentile across the northwest
part of the state. Still too uncertain to forecast at this time
but this pattern suggests at least a possibility of heavy rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Terminals will have vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr, except KJMS, where a
brief period of MVFR vsbys in mist will occur between 09z and 14z
Thursday. Low clouds at KJMS look to remain scattered at this
time.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Model soundings have a good cap in place across the region and
convection has been slow to organize. A weak shortwave trough is
undercutting the h500 ridge over the northern plains Wednesday
afternoon. This feature is supporting some organized convection
across northeast South Dakota bit not in North Dakota. Have
removed the chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight other than the far north central where a weak frontal
boundary has lingered and may maintain weak showers for the
evening.
Tonight low level profiles suggested some patchy fog is possible
in the James river valley and added patchy fog there after
midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The extended forecast will focus on thunderstorms and warm
temperatures. As the h500 ridge moves over the northern plains
Thursday, very warm temperatures are expected across west and
central North Dakota. By Thursday afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form along a weak cold front moving into western North
Dakota that will finally break the cap. While instability is
sufficient the shear is marginal. It is expected thunderstorms
have a marginal threat to become severe Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.
Friday looks generally dry in the wake of the cold front which
should limit convection to the james river valley and ending by
afternoon.
Eventually this front will end up as an east-west boundary across
northern South Dakota on Saturday. This will bring somewhat cooler
air into the north, while upper 80s to lower 90s reside across
the south. Southeast return wind flow will increase moisture
across the region during the day Saturday. This will set up a
better chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday night
as low pressure deepens across southwest North Dakota. The
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table still shows precipitable
water in the climatological 99th percentile across the northwest
part of the state. Still too uncertain to forecast at this time
but this pattern suggests at least a possibility of heavy rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Terminals will have vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr, except KJMS, where a
brief period of MVFR vsbys in mist will occur between 09z and 14z
Thursday. Low clouds at KJMS look to remain scattered at this
time.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Convective chances and strength will be the main challenge
throughout the period.
Water vapor loop shows several shortwave troughs approaching the
area, one coming through southern Canada and another digging from
southwestern ND into SD. A few showers have been approaching the
far northern counties from the first shortwave, but have not done
much for us except sprinkles at this point. The more southern
shortwave has not done much except some storms in northeastern SD
along the leading edge of mid level warm advection. There has been
some most unstable CAPE, but the surface based instability is
still well south over the SD/Neb border with the surface low.
Short range models have some showers and storms festering just to
the south of the CWA tonight, and this seems reasonable at this
point. Will continue to keep some low POPs in our far north and
far south, but the rest of the region should be fairly quiet
overnight with lows dropping into the 50s and low 60s.
Upper ridging will build into the forecast area during the day on
Thursday, but there will be a fairly significant shortwave coming
over the top of the ridge Thursday night. There should be a lot of
warm air advection Thursday, and models are all in good agreement
with temps tomorrow afternoon reaching the upper 80s and even low
90s, which fits upstream obs. The NAM also brings in some dew
points in the upper 60s into the far southern CWA which yields
some CAPE values near 4000 J/kg. However, think the NAM`s moisture
advection is a bit overdone and CAPE values are a bit high, not to
mention there should be a stout capping inversion for much of the
day. This will break down as the shortwave starts to come over the
ridge Thursday night. Think that storms will be fairly late, but
even if the NAM MUCAPE values verify half of what they are
showing, there should be plenty of instability and around 40 kts
deep layer bulk shear to work with for some early morning severe
late Thursday night at least across the western CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Friday and Saturday...Convection could be ongoing Friday morning
as a shortwave moves through and a surface trough/cold front
pushes into the central CWA. Think the cool air advection will
not be too impressive and will allow most of the CWA to see temps
in the mid 80s to low 90s. The surface boundary should be over the
southeastern counties by Friday afternoon, and some redevelopment
will be possible. Deep layer shear is less impressive so not
certain how strong storms will be in our area, but will continue
to keep some POPs in our southeastern counties through Friday
afternoon and evening. Saturday should be more quiet and a few
degrees cooler with surface high pressure to our northeast.
Saturday night through Wednesday...12z ECMWF has turned faster than
the corresponding GFS in bringing in SW flow and associated
convection. Both of these would mean the potential for an
overnight event into the day Sunday. There should be a break at
some point Monday into Tuesday. Here is where these models diverge
though...with the GFS offering a more zonal drier flow for
Wednesday while the ECMWF digs sharper trough into the Central
Plains. The blend arrives at a (barely) slight chc solution. This
regime will feature above average temperatures with daytime highs
rising a bit over 80 each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
High to eventually mid level clouds/cigs from this aftn through
Thurs. A few isolated to scattered tstms could make a run toward
KFAR overnight...staying consistent with prev fcst and leaving out
of TAF at this time. Otherwise SSE winds aob 10kts.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...WJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Made a few tweaks to clouds and temperatures as cirrus clouds
continue to diminish across our central counties but some mid
level clouds have been approaching both our southwest and far
northern borders. Temps have already reached the upper 70s in the
far southwest some bumped up temps a bit from what the short blend
gives us.
UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
No changes for the morning update.
UPDATE Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Freshened up cloud cover to best fit trends as high clouds
continue streaming in from the north producing partly sunny skies
this morning. Otherwise, no changes made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The forecast for this period starts off with northwest flow aloft
and high clouds streaming in from Canada. The filtered sun will
get temps up into the low 70s northeast to low 80s southwest
today. A weak upper wave may bring a few showers or thunderstorms
into the north late tonight. Further south, elevated thunderstorms
may exist late in the night in the vicinity of a warm front close
to the SD border. Models are trending away from the northern
activity and toward the southern activity. May need to increase
pops in the south in the future if models continue with trends.
On Thursday, dew points increase to the 60s, but a stout cap will
still remain in place keeping surface-based convection at bay.
Temps will still climb into the 80s although there may be some low
clouds in the area early in the day as indicated by 850 mb RH.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The better chance for thunderstorms will come late Thursday night
and Friday as a short wave and weak surface cold front move through
the area. A chance for severe storms will exist late in the night
Thursday night and into Friday with this system as MUCAPES will be
running 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear above 30 kts. The GFS
has the front and best upper support well into MN by 21Z. The NAM
lags a bit behind the GFS, but still is further east than previous
runs. Also, morning activity will likely play a role in where
convection fires later in the day. Still, severe storms will be
possible Friday morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect the
support to be mainly east of the area by the evening hours and
convective threat winding down by then.
Saturday-Tuesday...00z ECMWF and 00z GFS in rather good agreement
with synoptic features. A brief break in active weather on
Saturday before southwest flow aloft develops for Sunday into
early next week...bringing another active period. Potential exists
for strong thunderstorms...although details still uncertain.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal values most periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
High to eventually mid level clouds/cigs from this aftn through
Thurs. A few isolated to scattered tstms could make a run toward
KFAR overnight...staying consistent with prev fcst and leaving out
of TAF at this time. Otherwise SSE winds aob 10kts.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/TG
AVIATION...WJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1202 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Weak convection continues to diminish and lightning network has
shown no strikes within the last hour and a half. Based on these
trends have removed the mention of thunder in the forecast for
the remainder of the afternoon. Raised high temperatures a
degree.
UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Regional radar loops and the Bowman radar show the convection is
generally trending down. Current pops have this trend already and
blended the latest trend to the current pop forecast ending the
precipitation chances around 1 pm CDT.
UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Small area of showers/thunderstorms continues to scurry to the
east across southeast/east-central Montana. This has been cycling
some over the past few hours as earlier it appeared to dissipate,
but has seemed to surge again over the past few radar scans.
Latest HRRR tries to bring the system into the area early this
morning, so have adjusted precipitation chances a bit to account
for this. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The main concern for this short term period will be the chance
for thunderstorm development as well as the possibility of severe
weather Thursday late afternoon and night.
Currently...a broad upper level ridge was well established over the
Rockies and front range with low pressure over eastern North
America. A shortwave trough with several vort impulses moving
through the ridge was associated with scattered clusters of
convection over southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Wyoming. At the
surface, broad low pressure was along the Rockies and front range
associated with the embedded upper level shortwaves.
Early this morning the upper level shortwave over Montana is
forecast to move into western North Dakota around daybreak and move
east/southeast across the state today. The latest iterations of
short term high res models indicate that the convection should hold
together as it moves into North Dakota. These high based showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to be mainly above the building
thermal cap. As the shortwave moves east into central North Dakota
late this morning/noon the building thermal ridge will likely
suppress/weaken further the showers resulting in mid and high level
clouds moving east across the state. There is increasing CAPE this
afternoon in the southwest and south central...but thinking the
thermal cap will inhibit lift/convection. The cap may weaken in the
evening in the far southwest where there is growing instability and
upper level shortwave energy across northwestern South Dakota.
The building thermal cap will become more prominent on Thursday
associated with the apex of the upper level ridge moving into the
Dakotas. Looking at high temperatures in the low to mid 90s over
western and much of central North Dakota. Low level moisture
maintain or increase with forecast dewpoints into the mid and upper
60s in central North Dakota which will increase the instability with
time. During the daytime Thursday shortwave energy moves northeast
across Montana on the west side of the upper level ridge. A surface
frontal boundary will also move east across Montana on Thursday.
These features are progged to enter western North Dakota late
afternoon Thursday...then move east across the state Thursday night.
This scenario will set up better chances for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms. Strong instability along and ahead of the front,
coupled with strong 0-6km shear along and behind the front will
provide the potential for strong - possibly severe - thunderstorms.
The latest SPC outlook indicates a marginal chance for severe storms
for most of western and central North Dakota.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Temperatures on Friday will be a tad bit cooler over western and
northern locations behind a passing front, though readings will
still be well above average. Mainly dry weather expected through
the day, with thunderstorm chances returning mainly to the
northwest overnight as a modest low level jet develops.
Surface low deepens over southeast Montana on Saturday as ridge
axis pushes easterly with a variety of short waves lifting through
southwest flow. This will keep thunderstorm chances going through
the day, primarily over the west. Low level jet substantially
increases overnight bringing increased chances for thunderstorms,
particularly over northern locations where stronger instability is
noted. Will have to keep an eye on how this evolves as some severe
storms will be possible.
Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through Sunday with well
above average temperatures. A cold front is expected to sweep
through the area Sunday night into Monday bringing a return
towards normal temperatures. Drier with near to slightly above
average temperatures expected by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Terminals will have vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr, except KJMS, where a
brief period of MVFR vsbys in mist will occur between 09z and 14z
Thursday. Low clouds at KJMS look to remain scattered at this
time.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U.S. this
morning. This upper ridge will continue over the center part of the
country through Saturday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen
over the west coast and the northeast U.S.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue today...but moisture will be on the increase through the
weekend. No rainfall is expected through tonight. A weak warm front
will move north through the state Saturday. Continued the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for mainly south and west
sections Saturday...and particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures
will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and all areas
should see 90s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Summerlike wx conds wl prevail acrs the FA thru the pd. Upr rdg wl
be in place ovr the middle part of the country thru the upcoming
weekend. However...by Mon the upr rdg wl begin to breakdown as an
upr lvl storm sys shifts NEWD out of the SWRN states and heads into
the Plains States. The result wl be incrsg low lvl moisture ovr the
mid-south...along with mainly sctd diurnal SHRA/ TSRA thru the rest
of the fcst pd.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 68 92 72 / 0 0 10 0
Camden AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Harrison AR 90 67 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 71 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 91 71 / 0 0 20 10
Mountain Home AR 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
Newport AR 90 69 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Russellville AR 91 69 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 91 69 93 72 / 0 0 10 0
Stuttgart AR 91 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U.S. this
morning. This upper ridge will continue over the center part of the
country through Saturday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen
over the west coast and the northeast U.S.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue today...but moisture will be on the increase through the
weekend. No rainfall is expected through tonight. A weak warm front
will move north through the state Saturday. Continued the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for mainly south and west
sections Saturday...and particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures
will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and all areas
should see 90s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Summerlike wx conds wl prevail acrs the FA thru the pd. Upr rdg wl
be in place ovr the middle part of the country thru the upcoming
weekend. However...by Mon the upr rdg wl begin to breakdown as an
upr lvl storm sys shifts NEWD out of the SWRN states and heads into
the Plains States. The result wl be incrsg low lvl moisture ovr the
mid-south...along with mainly sctd diurnal SHRA/ TSRA thru the rest
of the fcst pd.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 68 92 72 / 0 0 10 0
Camden AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Harrison AR 90 67 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 71 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 91 71 / 0 0 20 10
Mountain Home AR 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
Newport AR 90 69 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Russellville AR 91 69 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 91 69 93 72 / 0 0 10 0
Stuttgart AR 91 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure is still dominant. Expect VFR conditions to persist
for most sites through the period once again. The only exception
may be some patchy fog at ADF near sunrise...with MVFR conditions.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 542 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist for most sites through the period
once again. The only exception may be some patchy fog at ADF near
sunrise.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
542 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist for most sites through the period
once again. The only exception may be some patchy fog at ADF near
sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 66 89 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Camden AR 67 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison AR 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
Hot Springs AR 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
Little Rock AR 67 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
Monticello AR 68 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 20
Mount Ida AR 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 20
Mountain Home AR 65 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Newport AR 67 90 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
Russellville AR 66 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
Searcy AR 66 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart AR 68 91 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...226
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure has moved east of Arkansas. Light east and southeast
winds are expected today across the area. Patchy fog around ADF
will dissipate rapidly this morning. Mainly high cirrus will be
seen today. VFR conditions will continue through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 87 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 87 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Warmer and more humid air will build over the region through
Saturday as a warm front lifts northeast. This front will bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into
Friday morning. Low chances for additional storms will continue
into Friday afternoon and Saturday. Lows tonight will range from
around 60 to the upper 60s. Highs Friday and Saturday will range
from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices both days will be
around 90 to the mid 90s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Widely scattered showers continue to develop over the past hour or
2 generally from Michigan City to Warsaw where earlier light rain
has allowed for rapid moistening of the column...depicted by quick
jump in dewpoints into the lower 60s. Effective warm front still
residing well southwest of the area from eastern Iowa across
central Illinois to south of Lafayette with current/past
shower/storm activity helping slow progress of the front for the
moment.
Convection has quickly developed over the last hour or so across
southern WI/northern IL on nose of modest low level jet and pocket
of 2000 j/kg of CAPE. One cell went up and became marginally
severe but quickly collapsed on itself despite somewhat favorable
shear. As these cell are dropping southeast the appear to weaken
as they move away from the pocket of better instability. This
causes concerns with regards to SE extent over time into the area.
Have to make some changes to the grids...at least through 6z and
maybe beyond to shift focus more southwest. Don`t want to get too
carried awat with everything still evolving...but HRRR has
consistently kept better chances for precip in SW areas with more
sct in nature NE. Will do best to capture trends in grids but more
updates likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain primary concern in the
short term period for tonight and Friday. Models continue to
indicate thunderstorm development this evening near a northwest to
southeast oriented warm front which will slowly lift northeast. This
boundary will be quasi stationary tonight into Friday as low level
jet increases tonight along with theta-e surge and a weak short wave
in northwest flow aloft. 12z model runs have continued prior trend
of weaker forcing tonight but still initiate convection in same
general area from WI to southern Lake Michigan. Complex expected to
roll southeast along instability gradient near sfc front. Elevated
instability is weaker as are mid level lapse rates. Better
thermodynamics now arrive later tonight which will keep storms more
in check. Still enough instability and modest 0-3km bulk shear of 25
to 30 knots to support a few strong storms and possibly a low end
isolated severe storm...mainly in the northwest. Hail will be
primary hazard and locally heavy rain possible with pwats increasing
to over 1.5 inches but storms should be progressive. Rather stout
low level inversion seen on soundings should limit wind gusts.
Thunderstorms may linger in the east Friday morning before exiting
the local area. Cloud debris likely early but should see sun mid to
late morning with strong heating in the afternoon. Atmosphere looks
capped with mid level heights rising. Cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms with any weak short wave but best chance per hires
models appears to be in the east on fringe of increasing heights and
thermal bubble. Still a low chance. High temps expected to recover
to around 90 in the west and middle 80s east. Dew points will be on
the rise...especially if we get decent rainfall tonight.
This will make it feel much more humid than recent days.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Another convective complex looks likely Friday night along warm
front which will have lifted north of our area. Depending on
evolution this could clip our northern counties late Friday night.
Residual cloud cover remains a concern for Saturday impacting high
temps and degree of destabilization. We remain on edge of mid level
plains ridge and expect subsidence and drier air to our west to help
keep western areas mostly clear and eventually erode any remaining
cloud cover central. Temps still expected to soar into lower and
even mid 90s west with full sun. Eastern areas remain more in
question and stayed a bit conservative there with high temps...still
reaching upper 80s. Afternoon CAPE to approach 2500-3000 j/kg but
shear remains rather poor with just 15 to 20 knots and no strong
signal for forcing. There are some hints at a pre-frontal trough
dropping south out of decaying MCS that depending on timing could
set off some storms in the afternoon. Given degree of instability
present...strong and isolated severe storms are possible
conditional on trigger as seen in 4km NAM.
Main synoptic cold front sags through Saturday night. Slightly
cooler air to filter in...especially northeast. This front to mainly
scour out low level moisture leaving dry but seasonably warm
conditions for Sunday and Monday as mid level ridge builds in.
Models then hinting toward a rex block pattern with upper low
developing over the plains underneath ridge. This occurring as very
strong low pressure stalls over Newfoundland. Plains low then drifts
toward our area with another quasi stationary boundary situated west
to east. This to provide additional tsra chances through much of
next week. Models tend to perform poorly with these weak cutoff lows
in the warm season so confidence low in the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Vfr conds xpcd going fwd. Hwvr expanding conv cluster
alg nose of focused into se WI/far ne IL attm xpcd to shift ewd erly
this morning and overspread the terminals w/a pd of mvfr restriction
in tsra likely. While any sense of consensus amg CAMs solutions is
certainly lacking...extrapolation of current activity bridges
loosely w/latest HRRR and spc 4km wrf both of which were used for
timing.
Otrws aftn pd presents somewhat of a dichotomy as much of the nr
term solution scope dvlps a fairly unstable airmass yet do not
redvlp storms invof of stationary fntl zone which will no doubt be
outflw augmented/anchored somewhat by erly morning activity. Will
forego a mention at this point but cont to monitor morning conv
evolution and nr term guidance trends.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
257 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
Southerly winds have helped keep overnight lows up into the middle
70s, although should still fall another few degrees before sunrise.
With a warm start and mid level temps similar to yesterdays numbers,
anticipating highs similar to Thursday with low to middle 90s from
SE to NW. However dewpoints rise into the middle/upper 60s by the
afternoon hours, and bump heat indicies into the middle/upper 90s.
Weak upper trof out over the high plains on Thursday advances
slightly eastward, but still not quite far enough east with the lift
or to break the cap and bring precipitation into our area. For now
only have an increase in cloud cover and will watch for
progression.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
On Saturday the upper ridge will be centered over the central US,
while a remnant shortwave meanders close to the forecast area. At
the moment the models depict this wave will be located east of the
area as it rotates around the center of the high to the north. Most
of the precipitation associated with this wave will occur over the
Ozarks. Temperatures will not changed much with highs is the lower
to mid 90s, and heat indices close to 100. On Sunday the upper high
will begin to shift eastward over the Midwest. Meanwhile the
longwave trough will progress into the Rockies. The models are
keeping most of the area dry with not much forcing in place. Sunday
evening a front over western NE will support the development of a
storm complex that may progress along or near the KS/NE state line
overnight. If this complex of storms moves across the area Monday
morning clouds and lingering precip will effect the outcome for the
afternoon. The models begin to disagree on how to handle the front,
which is fairly weak, and show a shortwave trough lifting out over
the plains Monday or Tuesday. There is uncertainty regarding any
remnant outflows and or frontal positions. Ultimately cyclogenesis
will support a surface low pressure to move across western and
central KS either Monday or Tuesday due to timing differences.
Instability could be very high ahead of this system, and the deep
layer shear will increase due to the wave. By Thursday the shortwave
will cut off from the main flow and meander somewhere over the MS
valley. Precipitation from this wave could affect the area, but
models will likely struggle with this cut off system so uncertainty
is high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Some models still suggest that there may be a slight chance for
some marginal LLWS overnight, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect the
southerly winds to increase once again by late Friday morning,
with gusts around 20kts through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
KDDC WSR-88D shows some thunderstorms early this morning across the
southern zones. This activity was at the base of a very weak 500-hPa
trof. This activity will diminish quickly through the early morning
hours. The next shot at thunderstorms comes this afternoon and evening.
Have low confidence in storms developing, since the main wave will be
mainly to the E/SE. Have very low pops SE of a line from Elkhart to
Liebenthal. The ARW and 4 km NAM do break out storms (in different locations
though), while the NMMB is mostly dry. Again, only went with 15-20 pops.
Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, highs today will be in the
90s with lows in the 60s to around 70 for Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The forecast is dry through early Sunday. Decided to take out pops Saturday
evening as not seeing a whole lot of opportunity for convection with
a 590 dm high overhead. Pops do ramp up quickly late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. A synoptic trof will begin to influence our region with
dynamics aloft and low level lift along surface boundaries. Tuesday
looks the most interesting per the ECMWF. The GFS was not used as the
trof looks too progressive. It`s summer and systems move slow typically
versus what the GFS indicates. The EC paints a severe weather picture
Tuesday evening with 40-50 kt of bulk shear, 3000 J/kg of CAPE and
a warm front. Very large hail would be a concern if supercells develop.
In addition, conceptually, warm front isolated tornadoes could be possible
as well if you take the model verbatim. All these small scale details
will be hammered out in future runs, but last nights 00Z EC run looked
interesting for Tuesday evening as well (in terms of a ramp up of significant
severe weather across the Kansas prairie). Otherwise, temps through
the extended will be Summer-like with highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Convection across SW Kansas is diminishing and will watch radar trends
to see if an amendment is needed at each terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. There could be convection once again tomorrow afternoon
and evening, but latest guidance suggests this probably won`t impact
the terminals. Will leave out for now. Winds will be SE/S 10-15 kt increasing
15-25 kt by late morning through dusk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 69 92 69 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 96 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 93 65 90 65 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 94 68 92 67 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
KDDC WSR-88D shows some thunderstorms early this morning across the
southern zones. This activity was at the base of a very weak 500-hPa
trof. This activity will diminish quickly through the early morning
hours. The next shot at thunderstorms comes this afternoon and evening.
Have low confidence in storms developing, since the main wave will be
mainly to the E/SE. Have very low pops SE of a line from Elkhart to
Liebenthal. The ARW and 4 km NAM do break out storms (in different locations
though), while the NMMB is mostly dry. Again, only went with 15-20 pops.
Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, highs today will be in the
90s with lows in the 60s to around 70 for Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The forecast is dry through early Sunday. Decided to take out pops Saturday
evening as not seeing a whole lot of opportunity for convection with
a 590 dm high overhead. Pops do ramp up quickly late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. A synoptic trof will begin to influence our region with
dynamics aloft and low level lift along surface boundaries. Tuesday
looks the most interesting per the ECMWF. The GFS was not used as the
trof looks too progressive. It`s summer and systems move slow typically
versus what the GFS indicates. The EC paints a severe weather picture
Tuesday evening with 40-50 kt of bulk shear, 3000 J/kg of CAPE and
a warm front. Very large hail would be a concern if supercells develop.
In addition, conceptually, warm front isolated tornadoes could be possible
as well if you take the model verbatim. All these small scale details
will be hammered out in future runs, but last nights 00Z EC run looked
interesting for Tuesday evening as well (in terms of a ramp up of significant
severe weather across the Kansas prairie). Otherwise, temps through
the extended will be Summer-like with highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Convection across SW Kansas is diminishing and will watch radar trends
to see if an amendment is needed at each terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. There could be convection once again tomorrow afternoon
and evening, but latest guidance suggests this probably won`t impact
the terminals. Will leave out for now. Winds will be SE/S 10-15 kt increasing
15-25 kt by late morning through dusk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 69 92 69 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 96 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 93 65 90 65 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 94 68 92 67 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 PM MDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Early afternoon WV satellite imagery and RAP analysis shows upper
level ridging across the SW US. A shortwave trough is currently
centered over western KS with a weaker shortwave rotating over
eastern KS. At the surface a surface trough is approximately along
the CO/KS border extending into SW Nebraska, with SW flow across SW
Kansas into south central Nebraska.
This afternoon-evening: with forcing associated with shortwave
trough lingering potential exists for thunderstorm development.
Main CAPE axis is associated with moist surface layer in SW flow
with marginal CAPE values expected across our southeast. ML CIN is
in the process of weakening, so initiation s0ouc take place in region
of weak convergence. LCLs/LFCs are high with a high melting layer
associated with warm/dry adiabatic layer through approximately
700mb. Above this there is limited moisture advection. Drier and
more subsident air mass is in our northwest lowering confidence in
initiation in all but our NW Kansas counties where strongest precip
signal is in place. Due to the dry nature of the soundings coverage
should remain isolated to widely scattered. Main axis of forcing
transitions east this evening, and loss of daytime
heating/stabilization of the boundary layer should lead to any
lingering activity diminishing after sunset.
Due to the high bases, deep melting layer, and marginal CAPE values
in our CWA, confidence in severe hail is lower. On the other hand
DCAPE values in the 1500 J/KG range, and Inverted V soundings raises
concern for microburst potential.
Friday: H5 ridge will be centered roughly across our western CWA,
with large scale subsidence and an even drier air mass limiting any
thunderstorm potential. Bigger story will be the hot air mass in
place, with mean H85 temps at 30-31C range. Warmer guidance is even
higher. Warmest layer is actually in the 925mb layer with some
guidance showing temps around 37C (98F). With even minor bias
corrections the mean/consensus guidance shows highs in the upper
90s, and it is certainly possible for some locations to reach the
low 100s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Friday through Saturday remain hot and dry with the upper ridge
moving into place over the central United States and southerly
flow at the surface.
On Sunday, the upper ridge axis pushes east with a short wave
trough aloft lifting out across the central high plains ahead of
the main upper trough that starts progressing eastward into the
southwestern U.S. A surface trough also associated with the upper
wave moves east across the forecast area with a weak cold front to
follow overnight Sunday night. Temperatures on Monday will cool
somewhat, but will remain slightly above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s. The best chance of precipitation will be
Monday evening through Tuesday as the low over the southwest U.S.
lifts out across the Rockies and Central High Plains as an open
wave with another surface trough/front expected to move across the
forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler on
Tuesday as a result.
Wednesday and into Thursday look dry and hot again as short wave
ridging replaces the trough aloft with high pressure also
generally in place across the central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2016
VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. This is due to
abundant dry air that will maintain it`s firm grip on the Tri-
State Region. Decided to put LLWS back into the TAF at KMCK.
Latest VAD Wind Profile data from KGLD radar indicates a 45 kt
low level jet. This is on the fringe of the main jet so think
guidance under forecast the strength of the jet. Anticipate LLWS
to persist until just before sunrise when the jet weakens and
slides east.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
Weak upper flow continues over the Central Plains this afternoon.
A weak upper trough was evident in the water vapor imagery over
western Nebraska into to the Texas Panhandle. Another weakening
circulation was moving across southeast Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma. Surface dry line was located over the high plains and
will move very little. Short term models differ with convection
this evening with the HRRR and and the RUC moving in some
weakening convection from the west during the late evening hours
into north central Kansas. The experimental HRRR keeps
precipitation to the west and diminishes it before moving to the
east of U.S. 81 Highway tonight. Will continue with small
precipitation chances in north central Kansas tonight. Lows
tonight will continue to be mild with readings in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Friday, Another good warm up is expected with the thermal ridge
extending into central Kansas have increased highs slightly into the
mid 90s with lower 90s elsewhere across northeast and east central
Kansas. The afternoon heat index will reach near 100 degrees across
parts of north central and northeast Kansas with the rest of the
area in the mid to upper 90s heat index. Weak upper trough/wave
moves across central and east Kansas on Friday. There is little in
the way of surface moisture convergence with the absence of any
boundary and a small EML remains in place through much of the day.
The upper trough fills as it moves east with the NAM the strongest
with the upper energy. Cannot rule out an isolated late afternoon
storm out in central Kansas, but confidence is not high enough to
include in forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For Friday night through Sunday, the main question with the
forecast is whether a lobe of vorticity gets trapped within the
upper ridge over the state. This idea was not in the operational
models yesterday, and now have almost a weak closed low aloft
near the forecast area during the weekend. Therefore confidence is
not all that great. Forecast soundings suggest the airmass will be
conditionally unstable with little inhibition to convection. So if
this piece of energy is near the area, there could be some
diurnally driven convection Saturday and/or Sunday. For now have
left POPs around 10 percent but later shifts may need to increase
chances if models continue to leave behind this energy within the
ridge. The forecast appears to be in good shape regarding forecast
temps as there isn`t much chance in the solution`s thermal
profiles. Highs are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s as
forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to around 825MB.
Continued southerly flow and dewpoints holding in the 60s
overnight support the lows forecast for temps bottoming out around
70 degrees.
Precip chances should be on the increase for Sunday night through
much of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and energy from
the west passes through the plains. An initial shortwave is
progged to pass through the central plains Sunday night and early
Monday. Then a more amplified system moves slowly across the
plains through Wednesday. The medium range models have come into
better agreement in closing off an upper low just north of the
forecast area by Wednesday. Think the better chances for precip
will be Monday through Tuesday night as the upper wave initially
moves out from the southern Rockies and a surface wave lifts
across the area. After Wednesday, there are question on where the
closed low drifts to and a possible dry slot working into the
area. Have held onto some small POPs Wednesday night and across
eastern KS for Thursday to account for the closed low in the
region. The models show temps trending cooler for next week as the
upper system moves through the region. However am a little
concerned temps could be to cool as cold raw model guidance seems
to be skewing the forecast cooler when there is no significant
cold air advection. This is probably due to the models generating
precip during these periods. Unless it is cloudy and raining all
day, it is hard to see why temps would not continue to be in the
lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. With this in mind have kept
highs in the upper 80s and around 90 rather than the middle 80s.
There are signs of increasing cold air advection by Wednesday as
the upper closed low moves east of the forecast area. With this in
mind, have shown a little more of a cool down for the later part
of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Some models still suggest that there may be a slight chance for
some marginal LLWS overnight, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect the
southerly winds to increase once again by late Friday morning,
with gusts around 20kts through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
109 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
We cancelled those portions of severe thunderstorm watch number
240 which are behind the primary, linear band of thunderstorms
that extends from near Rugby southward into Sheridan County as of
06 UTC. The line of storms has back-built south of the watch and
into eastern Burleigh County east of Bismarck. We will watch radar
trends to see if Kidder and Stutsman Counties need to be added to
the watch, but at this point trends in intensity suggest we might
not need to expand it any further.
UPDATE Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Another quick update to extend severe thunderstorm watch 240 into
Foster County based on upstream radar trends and in collaboration
with SPC and WFO Grand Forks. We also trimmed a few more counties
in southwest ND from watch 240 with this update.
UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.
UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Thunderstorms with local MVFR and IFR conditions, heavy rain, and
gusty winds will move out of central ND by about 11 UTC. VFR
conditions will prevail across western and central ND on Friday
behind the weak cool front which is generating tonight`s
thunderstorm activity.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1157 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Another quick update to extend severe thunderstorm watch 240 into
Foster County based on upstream radar trends and in collaboration
with SPC and WFO Grand Forks. We also trimmed a few more counties
in southwest ND from watch 240 with this update.
UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.
UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Thunderstorms with local MVFR and IFR conditions, heavy rain, and
gusty winds will move out of western ND by about 08 UTC, and out
of central ND by about 11 UTC. VFR conditions will prevail across
western and central ND on Friday behind the weak cool front which
is generating tonight`s thunderstorm activity.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1127 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
We collaborated with SPC to expand the severe thunderstorm watch
downstream of the intense thunderstorms that were centered around
Minot at 04 UTC. The severe threat is beginning to diminish to
the west, so we also cancelled the watch for Divide, Burke, and
Williams Counties. Additional counties in western ND will likely
be able to be removed from the watch in the next 90 minutes.
UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Overall, the forecast is trending well and only minor changes were
made with this update, namely to ramp up PoPs a bit again based on
recent HRRR simulations. We discussed the possibility of expanding
the severe thunderstorm watch further east into Bismarck/Mandan
with SPC, but based on radar trends and some capping shown on the
00 UTC Bismarck sounding the threat appears marginal enough (but
certainly non-zero) to hold off on expanding the watch in space at
this point. We will continue to re-evaluate that possibility over
the next few hours, though.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Quick update to accommodate a recently-issued severe thunderstorm
watch for western and parts of central ND, which is valid through
08 UTC, per collaboration with SPC. We also increased PoPs across
much of western and central ND through 09 UTC based on the recent
trends in radar imagery, which show increasing storm coverage as
forcing attendant to a shortwave trough approaches western ND.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 952 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central ND
through about 10 UTC. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and gusty
winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be severe
with large hail and damaging winds, especially in western and
north central ND.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
657 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure will keep quiet weather over the area again today.
VFR conditions will prevail. Some morning fog in the south...with
MVFR conditions...will dissipate early this morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U.S. this
morning. This upper ridge will continue over the center part of the
country through Saturday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen
over the west coast and the northeast U.S.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue today...but moisture will be on the increase through the
weekend. No rainfall is expected through tonight. A weak warm front
will move north through the state Saturday. Continued the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for mainly south and west
sections Saturday...and particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures
will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and all areas
should see 90s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Summerlike wx conds wl prevail acrs the FA thru the pd. Upr rdg wl
be in place ovr the middle part of the country thru the upcoming
weekend. However...by Mon the upr rdg wl begin to breakdown as an
upr lvl storm sys shifts NEWD out of the SWRN states and heads into
the Plains States. The result wl be incrsg low lvl moisture ovr the
mid-south...along with mainly sctd diurnal SHRA/ TSRA thru the rest
of the fcst pd.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U.S. this
morning. This upper ridge will continue over the center part of the
country through Saturday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen
over the west coast and the northeast U.S.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue today...but moisture will be on the increase through the
weekend. No rainfall is expected through tonight. A weak warm front
will move north through the state Saturday. Continued the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for mainly south and west
sections Saturday...and particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures
will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and all areas
should see 90s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Summerlike wx conds wl prevail acrs the FA thru the pd. Upr rdg wl
be in place ovr the middle part of the country thru the upcoming
weekend. However...by Mon the upr rdg wl begin to breakdown as an
upr lvl storm sys shifts NEWD out of the SWRN states and heads into
the Plains States. The result wl be incrsg low lvl moisture ovr the
mid-south...along with mainly sctd diurnal SHRA/ TSRA thru the rest
of the fcst pd.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 68 92 72 / 0 0 10 0
Camden AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Harrison AR 90 67 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 71 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 91 71 / 0 0 20 10
Mountain Home AR 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
Newport AR 90 69 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Russellville AR 91 69 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 91 69 93 72 / 0 0 10 0
Stuttgart AR 91 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
341 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U.S. this
morning. This upper ridge will continue over the center part of the
country through Saturday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen
over the west coast and the northeast U.S.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue today...but moisture will be on the increase through the
weekend. No rainfall is expected through tonight. A weak warm front
will move north through the state Saturday. Continued the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for mainly south and west
sections Saturday...and particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures
will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon and all areas
should see 90s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Summerlike wx conds wl prevail acrs the FA thru the pd. Upr rdg wl
be in place ovr the middle part of the country thru the upcoming
weekend. However...by Mon the upr rdg wl begin to breakdown as an
upr lvl storm sys shifts NEWD out of the SWRN states and heads into
the Plains States. The result wl be incrsg low lvl moisture ovr the
mid-south...along with mainly sctd diurnal SHRA/ TSRA thru the rest
of the fcst pd.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 68 92 72 / 0 0 10 0
Camden AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Harrison AR 90 67 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 20 10
Little Rock AR 92 71 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello AR 93 72 93 73 / 0 0 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 70 91 71 / 0 0 20 10
Mountain Home AR 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
Newport AR 90 69 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Russellville AR 91 69 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy AR 91 69 93 72 / 0 0 10 0
Stuttgart AR 91 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure is still dominant. Expect VFR conditions to persist
for most sites through the period once again. The only exception
may be some patchy fog at ADF near sunrise...with MVFR conditions.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 542 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist for most sites through the period
once again. The only exception may be some patchy fog at ADF near
sunrise.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
542 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist for most sites through the period
once again. The only exception may be some patchy fog at ADF near
sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 66 89 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Camden AR 67 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison AR 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
Hot Springs AR 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
Little Rock AR 67 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
Monticello AR 68 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 20
Mount Ida AR 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 20
Mountain Home AR 65 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Newport AR 67 90 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
Russellville AR 66 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
Searcy AR 66 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart AR 68 91 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...226
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure has moved east of Arkansas. Light east and southeast
winds are expected today across the area. Patchy fog around ADF
will dissipate rapidly this morning. Mainly high cirrus will be
seen today. VFR conditions will continue through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 87 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 87 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
647 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend.
Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 80s and low
90s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Otherwise, expect a cold front to bring additional chances for
showers and storms late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. A
few isolated strong to severe storms are possible with this front,
though confidence at this point is low. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts for updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Showers and thunderstorms continue through the early morning,
primarily from I 69 westward. At 4 am EDT an area of showers and
storms were slowly shifting southeastward from near Lake Michigan
into Cass/Miami/Wabash county. These showers/storms are supported
by an area of decent upper level divergence, strong moisture
transport and elevated instability. Models of course are in
disagreement over the coverage of precipitation further northeast
as we head through the morning, however are consistent in showing
the area of precipitation now present shifting southeastward. Have
numerous showers and thunderstorms in these areas through early
morning, dissipating from northwest to southeast, and scattered to
isolated showers/storms possible elsewhere.
Otherwise, the forecast for this afternoon and tonight will be
tricky, with our area lodged on the eastern periphery of an upper
level ridge. Chances for precipitation this afternoon will be
dependent on the weak short wave passing through the flow aloft.
Moisture is certainly abundant this go around, with PWATs up
around 1.7 inches-which is about 150 percent of normal. Kept
fairly consistent with the previous forecast. With collocated
better moisture/weak support from 500mb shortwave and stronger
afternoon instability in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range, kept chances
for showers and storms in the east during the afternoon. As far as
severe threat goes, with limited shear-around 25 knots towards
the afternoon hours it looks to be isolated if anything. SPC has
us in a marginal risk, which is appropriate given the higher
instability that will be present.
One thing is for certain...with 850mb temps of 17-18C, high
temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s-especially in
the west/southwest where cloud cover diminishes earlier.
Flow tonight will be zonal, with a slight chance for showers and
storms, mainly north of I 80-90, associated with a weak
shortwave. Confidence in this occurring is low, however.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
We start out the long term forecast on Saturday with another weak
shortwave that gets somewhat washed out as the upper level ridge
over the plains builds. The best chances for showers and storms
would be with the sfc cold front expanding southeastward from
Michigan late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With support
from the frontal boundary, instability up to 1500-2500 J/KG, and
0-6 KM Bulk shear to 30 Kts isolated severe weather is a
possibility. SPC has areas north of US 30 in a slight risk for
severe weather, though there is low confidence given the
variability in the models. For now stuck with chance of showers
and t-storms through the late afternoon/evening hours.
Sunday will likely be dry with the cold front sagging south of our
area and surface high pressure/strong ridge building aloft.
Temperatures will be relatively cooler in the CAA behind the front,
with highs in the mid-upper 70s near Lake Michigan to the 80s
inland.
The forecast becomes fairly murky as we head into the extended
period. Monday we are again on the eastern fringes of the upper
level ridge. Low pressure to the west is forecast to lift a warm
front into the area Monday morning where it eventually becomes
stationary and lingers through Thursday. This is when the surface
low/upper level trough over WI takes a dive into our area and
lingers through Friday night. With widely varying model solutions
kept steady with the consensus blend from Monday onward-which
brings mostly chance pops into our area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Vfr conds xpcd through the pd. Current conv cluster
driving sewd alg ern edge of ll theta-e gradient and will largely
bypass KFWA terminal erly on although ern bound of stratiform rain
shield may expand far enough east yet to provide for a brief pd of
mvfr vsby restriction through abt 14Z.
Upstream convn ovr se WI conts to wkn in conjunction to wkng llj yet
xpc any lingering leftovers to fizzle nwwd of the terminal. That
leads to qn of what if anything redvlps this aftn alg tail end of
current complex aligned w/modest mass flux arising within renewed
llj. Ltl doubt conds will destabilize sigly esp invof the highway 30
corridor by lt aftn yet may be end up being capped in reflection of
upstream warming noted in 00Z KDVN raob. Will await 12Z data to see
if that scenario holds water.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM EDT FRI Jun 9 2016
A thunderstorms complex will move across northeast portions of central
Indiana this morning as a warm front over northern Indiana and Ohio
moves north into the great lakes. Hot and dry weather will occur Saturday
as a strong upper ridge of high pressure builds into the Mississippi valley.
The frontal system over the great lakes will drift south across our region
Sunday and then meander around. Thunderstorms chances will increase after
the weekend as an upper disturbance moves our way.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT FRI Jun 9 2016
Radar indicates an area of showers and thunderstorms around the Chicago area
and northwest Indiana. These thunderstorms will drift southeast across
northern Indiana and move into the northeast part of our region by day break.
Will go with likely POPS east of a Kokomo to Rushville line and chance POPS
along and east of a Lafayette to Indy line. Otherwise...it will remain
dry across the southwest half of our region this morning.
Rapid refresh model indicates numerous thunderstorms over
northeast and east central sections for a few hours this morning
and then the storms should diminish as the warm front lifts to the
northeast. Will continue slight chance POPS over the eastern half
of our region this afternoon...although confidence is low.
There will be more sun this afternoon and highs should range from the lower
90s over western sections to the middle and upper 80s east. With afternoon
sun and warm advection went a degree or two above a MOS blend on temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT FRI Jun 9 2016
Models are in generally good agreement on the main features...but there are
some differences on QPF. Will use a blend in most cases. An upper ridge of
high pressure will build our way as the warm front moves north into the
great lakes. Models indicate that we will be capped and expect mostly
clear skies through Saturday. 850 MB temperatures will rise into the
lower 20s and this will result in the hottest temperatures so far this
season with highs in the lower 90s Saturday.
The frontal system over the great lakes will drift south across our region
late Saturday night and Sunday per models as an upper trough deepens along
the New England coast. The NAM...GFS and GEMNH model shows some QPF with
this front...while EURO is mostly dry. Will go with 20-30 percent POPS over
north and central sections later Saturday night and most areas Sunday. Drier air
behind the front will spread into northern areas Sunday afternoon and over
most other areas Sunday night. Will end the thunderstorm chances upon arrival
of this drier air.
The NAM and GFS indicate some cooling over north and central sections Sunday...while
the EURO is much less. Will go with a blend with temperatures a few degrees above
a MOS blend...but not quite as warm as the EURO. Went with highs from the middle
and upper 80s northeast Sunday to the lower 90s southwest. Lows will be from
65 to 70 tonight...lower 70s Saturday night and from 60 northeast to 70 southwest
Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The long term looks active with an upper ridge breaking down as
several upper waves move southeast along it and into central
Indiana. Highs start out in the 90s on Monday but decrease a bit
thereafter as the ridge breaks down. For Monday and Monday night
PoPs in the chance category are expected in the north with only a
slight chance in the south as the ridge gets depressed from the
north. Chances for thunderstorms then continue through the rest of
the extended period and temperatures drop to the middle 80s for
much of the week before cooler air from an upper low moving across
the northern part of the country arrives to end the week. Models
show differences in timing of the aforementioned shortwaves so
nothing to key in on to designate any day as a dry one and thus
made no substantive changes to the initialization. With ample
heat and available moisture carried thunder each day.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 101200z TAF issuance/...
Issued at 621 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016
An upper wave moving through along a surface front is producing
showers and thunderstorms across northern and parts of central
Indiana this morning. This activity has stayed east of the sites
thus far, but latest radar loop indicates KLAF could see a shower
or storm directly impact there during the first hour or two of the
forecast period. At KIND HRRR looks like development could bring
some restrictions to KIND from visibilities within thunderstorms
but radar loop doesn`t match this scenario as well. However
starting to see outflow boundary that could encourage more
development in this direction. Therefore will include a tempo TSRA
at KLAF but with less confidence will stick with VCTS at KIND.
Ceilings should be at or above 5 kft. After storms move out later
this morning expect conditions to remain VFR through the rest of
the period.
&&
.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
318 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Deeper subtropical moisture moving into Arizona from
the south will bring increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms spreading northward through Saturday. Overnight
showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to an upper
level trough. Drier air will move in behind this trough with a
drying trend from west to east from Saturday to Sunday. Another
weak low moving through the Southwest region on Monday may bring a
few light showers to northern Arizona mainly along the Utah border
region. Otherwise a high pressure ridge will build in from Tuesday
onward bringing in more typical hot and dry June weather
conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong convection is developing in Southeastern
Arizona this afternoon. Convective activity has been more limited
in northwestern Arizona due to a combination of lower moisture
levels and extensive cloud cover. The latest SREF, European and
American GFS models continue to show thunderstorm coverage
expanding northwestward through the evening hours as a upper level
trough moves northward across the state.
Deeper subtropical moisture continues to move up into Arizona
from the south this evening. An upper level trough moving around
the western edge of the ridge will help with both the moisture
advection into northern Arizona and provide some convective
forcing during the overnight hours. Due to the upper level
disturbance there is a chance for convection in southern Arizona
to send outflows northward into central Arizona with thunderstorms
riding the outflow convergence boundary. Around 8pm the upper
trough will move into Yavapai and Gila counties helping to
initiate evening showers and thunderstorms. This upper trough will
continue to move northward helping to spread nocturnal isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern third of the
state.
Saturday and Sunday...As the trough moves northward drier Pacific
air moves into Arizona starting on Saturday into northwestern
Arizona while deeper moisture lingers in Apache and Navajo
counties. Expect a west to east drying trend through the weekend.
A cut off low approaching Arizona from the west will bring
increasing southwesterly winds on Sunday with sustained winds in
the 15 to 20 mph range along with gusts up to 30 mph.
On Monday...The cut off low will move across the Utah border
region with low chances for a few light showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday through Friday...The subtropical ridge builds into the
Southwest with more typical June hot and dry weather forecast
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Current radar imagery shows
scattered thunderstorms along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage and spread northward through the overnight hours. The
best chances for showers will be along and southwest of a line
from Greer to Winslow to Tusayan. Erratic winds with gusts to 45
kts will be possible near the strongest storms. In addition,
periods of MVFR visibilities are possible. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect increasing high-based shower and thunderstorm
activity from southeast to northwest through the overnight hours.
Strong and erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. On
Saturday, lingering moisture will cause a round of scattered high-
based storms, primarily over higher terrain. Gusty southwest winds
and mainly dry conditions are expected on Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday...Slight chances for thunderstorms are
forecast Monday. Dry weather and a warming trend forecast Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
303 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
for the remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours, with
some of these storms producing areas of blowing dust due to strong
and gusty outflows. Localized heavy rain also possible. Drier air
starts to work in from the west on Saturday pushing the best chance
of storms to areas east of Tucson. A few thunderstorms may occur
near the New Mexico border on Sunday. Dry conditions will prevail
next week with a drier air mass over the area. Daytime temperatures
will remain near normal or a few degrees below normal through
Tuesday, then hotter temperatures return next Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows high pressure over
the general vicinity of the four corners region. Meanwhile, an
inverted trough resides to our south over Sonora Mexico. Overnight,
convection developed/persisted across areas mainly along the
international border and moved west. The latest visible and IR
imagery shows remnants of this activity, with mid and high level
cloudiness covering mostly the western parts of the forecast area.
A persistent MCV is over extreme northwest Sonora and continues to
move rapidly to the west northwest.
This mornings 10/12Z KTWC sounding reveals a very wet airmass in
place with a PW of 1.46 inches, which is a record for this date. The
old record was 1.33 inches. In addition, decent flow in the column
with generally an easterly component in the entire profile. Enough
flow to help get storms organized, thus the inherited POP forecast
that shows high end scattered to likely category POP`s for most of
the forecast area. The only exception would be isolated activity
over the far western deserts of Pima county near Ajo and Organ Pipe.
In addition, some of the parameters from the sounding indicate a MU
Cape of nearly 1500 J/KG and a lifted index of minus 3.
The 12Z run of the U of A WRF NAM/GFS both show organized convection
developing initially over central areas, more specifically parts of
Santa Cruz and Pima counties and spreading to the northwest during
the late afternoon and early evening. The GFS is the more robust and
indicates explosion development beginning around the current time
over Santa Cruz county and then a large cluster/complex develops
over central Pima county and makes its way into Pinal county. After
4 pm, it shows additional development over eastern Pima and Western
Cochise county and this activity spreads north northwest into Graham
county and after 8 PM MST is mostly in the Phoenix area of
responsibility. The WRF/NAM solution shows initial development
around 2 to 3 PM MST (which is too slow) over eastern Pima county
and heads into Pinal county and areas beyond after around 6 PM MST
this evening. The latest run of the HRRR shows a similar solution
with early development over eastern Pima county and additional
development over Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, especially
after 11/00Z. So even though these solutions have the same general
theme, there are differences in the details. That said, have
generally gone with a sort of blend of these solutions, which means
scattered to low end likely category POP`s for a large part of the
forecast area, with the exception of western Pima county.
With the way the storms are developing today and with the
anticipated movement to the west northwest or northwest, the night
shift issued a blowing dust advisory for portions of central and
eastern Pima county and all of Pinal county, which will take effect
at 3 PM MST this afternoon and continue through 7 PM MST.
Through the weekend, we will hang on to POPS, especially Saturday
although lesser than today, as an approaching trough kicks the
moisture to the east. Once the trough passes through the region,
high pressure will build back in for warming temperatures during the
middle to latter part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA...wind gusts of 40-50 kts and visibilities
reduced to around 1-2SM with the stronger TSRA. Otherwise, cloud
decks will generally range from 10k-15k ft MSL. Surface wind mainly
less than 10 kts except near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening and again Saturday. A few thunderstorms Sunday
will likely be limited to the higher terrain east of Tucson.
Thunderstorm outflows will occasionally produce brief strong, gusty
and erratic winds. Dry conditions will then prevail area-wide Monday
through Friday of next week. Daytime temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal into early next week, then hotter temperatures
return Wednesday into next Friday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Blowing Dust Advisory in effect
until 7 PM this evening for AZZ502>506.
&&
$$
Mollere
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
Upper level ridge continues across the Central Plains this
afternoon. Weak upper trough was filling across central and
northeast Kansas this morning. Surface trough continues across the
western high plains with axis of mid to upper 60s dewpoints across
central and eastern Kansas. Afternoon cumulus has developed across
the area and should be on the decrease toward sunset with the loss
of heating. With little change in airmass since yesterday expect
low temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s overnight. On
Saturday, 850 mb temperatures warm a degree or two from today.
Forecast soundings suggest mixing down from around 850 mb with
highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon dew points in the
upper 60s to around 70 will yield heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees in the afternoon. With no forcing aloft or at
the surface and soundings showing weak cap remaining in place
Saturday afternoon, will keep the forecast dry.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
Last part of the weekend should remain dry and very warm with high
temps still in the 90s and heat indices into the mid to upper 90s.
Precip chances increase into Monday as and overnight complex of
storms appears to form over west central Nebraska and slowly make
its way near or into East Central Kansas by early morning. It will
be pushed along by a weak boundary and without significant forcing
aloft, the trend based on 12Z model data will be to decrease in
intensity and whatever rain and thunderstorms are left. Storms may
linger into the morning and early afternoon over the forecast area,
so have maintained chance POPs over most of the area. It isn`t until
the Tuesday time frame and overnight Wednesday that a tight compact
upper low forms and undergoes cyclogenesis as split southern stream
flow aloft ejects out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Best
indication at this time is that the forcing aloft will increase over
western and northern portions of the forecast area giving the best
chance to strong to perhaps severe storms. With indications that
there will be a remnant EML in place, there could be more isolated
activity. But with the upper low deepening quickly, steep lapse
rates aloft with favorable shear, due to the upper low, could result
in mostly a severe hail and wind threat. Again, still not highly
confident in the overall set up or other forcing mechanisms such as
a possible modified dryline mixing into the area. Also, guidance
does vary too much at this time to be on the high end chance POPs.
Rest of the week after this does look dry once again with perhaps
slight chance POPs as the upper low essentially becomes cut off from
the upper flow aloft and eventually fills over the Ohio River
Valley. Meanwhile temps cool back to the mid to upper 80s by the
end of the week as northeast flow sets up with surface high
pressure in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
remain gusty through the afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots. Winds
will increase by mid-morning tomorrow with sustained at 10-15
knots and a few gusts up to 20 knots at MHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
KDDC WSR-88D shows some thunderstorms early this morning across the
southern zones. This activity was at the base of a very weak 500-hPa
trof. This activity will diminish quickly through the early morning
hours. The next shot at thunderstorms comes this afternoon and evening.
Have low confidence in storms developing, since the main wave will be
mainly to the E/SE. Have very low pops SE of a line from Elkhart to
Liebenthal. The ARW and 4 km NAM do break out storms (in different locations
though), while the NMMB is mostly dry. Again, only went with 15-20 pops.
Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, highs today will be in the
90s with lows in the 60s to around 70 for Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
The forecast is dry through early Sunday. Decided to take out pops Saturday
evening as not seeing a whole lot of opportunity for convection with
a 590 dm high overhead. Pops do ramp up quickly late Sunday into Monday
and Tuesday. A synoptic trof will begin to influence our region with
dynamics aloft and low level lift along surface boundaries. Tuesday
looks the most interesting per the ECMWF. The GFS was not used as the
trof looks too progressive. It`s summer and systems move slow typically
versus what the GFS indicates. The EC paints a severe weather picture
Tuesday evening with 40-50 kt of bulk shear, 3000 J/kg of CAPE and
a warm front. Very large hail would be a concern if supercells develop.
In addition, conceptually, warm front isolated tornadoes could be possible
as well if you take the model verbatim. All these small scale details
will be hammered out in future runs, but last nights 00Z EC run looked
interesting for Tuesday evening as well (in terms of a ramp up of significant
severe weather across the Kansas prairie). Otherwise, temps through
the extended will be Summer-like with highs in the 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016
VFR category is expected during the course of this TAF peiod. There
is a general lack of convergence and source of lift for any
convection. Wind shear profiles support a period of boundary layer
wind shear in central KS, and is indicated in the HYS TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 94 69 94 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 68 94 69 95 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 66 92 66 95 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 69 93 68 94 / 20 10 10 20
HYS 70 94 69 93 / 10 10 10 20
P28 70 93 71 94 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
120 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates ridging
extending across Colorado with axis centered across our CWA. A
shortwave trough is east of our CWA. At the surface low pressure
is in place across eastern Colorado, with a secondary surface
trough axis near McCook Nebraska extending southeast through our
CWA.
This afternoon-Tonight: Weak forcing and moisture is rotating into
the rockies and has led to thunderstorm development across higher
terrain in south central Colorado. Some hi res guidance indicates
possible development and movement towards our western CWA, however
if this happens it will coincide with loss of daytime
heating/instability and confidence is low this would make it into
our CWA (particularly considering the mean storm motion and weak
flow aloft away from our CWA). Otherwise subsidence and a deep dry
air mass will preclude local thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. Relatively light winds and clear skies should
support another night of good radiational cooling, so expect
similar lows as last night (around 60F west to around 70F east).
Saturday: Upper level ridge shifts east while trough deepens in
this west. This may allow for a little more forcing to shift
eastward into our CWA, and there will be good instability in
place. Models are still indicating a very dry air mass in place,
and most guidance keeps dry conditions in place locally. Only
NMM/ARW supporting isolated thunderstorm activity Saturday
afternoon. I kept forecast dry for now, though I couldn`t rule of
a stray elevated thunderstorm. As the surface trough shifts east
and heights begin to fall, the air mass slowly "cools" over our
CWA. Temps aloft projected by guidance are very similar to was was
realized Thursday, and similar temperatures (low-mid 90s) would be
anticipated. This is a little lower than today, but still above
normal by 10-15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday
Issued at 218 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016
Temperatures on Monday will be a little bit cooler, but still
remain slightly above normal as highs will reach into the middle
to upper 80s. There will be a chance of precipitation on Monday
and Tuesday as an area of low pressure, over the southwest U.S.,
looks to lifts out across the Rockies and Central High Plains as
an open wave with a surface trough/front and pass over the
forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler, lower to
mid 80s, as a result.
The rest of the week, expect dry and hot conditions to return to
the Tri-State area as high pressure looks to influence the
Central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 10 2016
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK. Surface trough will remain in place near the CO state line
with weak southerly gradient leading to winds below 12kt through
the first 12hr of the TAF period. Gradient begins to increase by
late morning Saturday, with gusts 20-30kt developing at KGLD at
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR