Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/09/16
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Sfc high pressure in control this afternoon over northeast Kansas.
Overall cooler temps today with light northerly winds and readings
near 80 degrees. Unfortunately this trend is temporary as the ridge
axis builds eastward while a weak sfc trough develops over the
western high plains. Coupled with an embedded shortwave trough
entering CO per satellite imagery may trigger a few thunderstorms
over western and central Kansas this evening. There is a slight
chance a few of these storms may impact north central KS after
midnight per the latest few runs of the HRRR and the persistence
from the NAM and GFS. Confidence is lacking on the available
moisture with an abundance of dry air throughout the column so will
keep the slight pops at this time. Severe weather is not expected
given the weak wind profiles and elevated instability up to 1000
J/KG.
There may be a few showers lingering into sunrise Wednesday, but
otherwise another sunny and warm afternoon. Sfc pressure gradient
increases with the sfc low centered over eastern CO. Southerly winds
are stronger in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph while warm air
advection boosts temps back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Wednesday night through Friday...Region continues to transition
out of northwesterly flow as the upper ridge begins to amplify
over the Central Plains. Still some indication of a weak wave
moving off the Rockies and generating showers and storms over the
high plains and moving eastward as the night progresses, but not
highly confident these will make it this far east and have kept
rain chances to less than 15 percent in the west. Temperatures
start to climb into the 90s, rising a few degrees from Thursday
into Friday. Dewpoints also start to climb, and overnight lows
approach the 70 degree mark, with the start of a warm and muggy
pattern.
Friday night through Tuesday...Upper ridge is in full swing
extending into the Northern Plains by the weekend. Highs in the
90s and lows near 70 continue. As waves move across the northern
states, may be enough to start to move the ridge east and weaken
by Sunday night and will reintroduce slight rain chances. Front
still progged to drop southward into the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday, with higher rain chances for that forecast period. Could
also mean high temps drop back into the 80s, if front can get this
far southward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
VFR prevails at terminals through the period with light northerly
winds veering to the southeast as sfc high pressure shifts east.
Slight chance for isolated thunderstorms after 06Z to the west,
with lesser chances for terminals.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US MOVES EAST ACROSS INTO THE PLAINS.
ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
WEDNESDAY, AND LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS 850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
CAUSE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN CO BUT I THINK THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEREFORE I ONLY
WENT WITH A 10 TO 14 POP THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A WESTERN H5 TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN US TO SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWA MONDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE HIGHS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM....GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
...Updated Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016
Convective debris clouds embedded in the NW flow aloft will
diminish through sunrise. Agree with previous forecaster that
most of Tuesday will be dry for most locations. SE winds pick up
noticeably today, in response to surface cyclogenesis on the
Colorado Front Range. SE wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be common,
helping to improve moisture quality and instability. Model
guidance agrees that CAPE axis (1000-1500 J/kg GFS, 1500-2200 J/kg
NAM) will reside across the NW CWA and adjoining areas late this
afternoon into this evening. With the weak front washed out and
the surface trough forced to our west in Colorado, convergence
will be lost today. As such, despite increasing SE winds and
moisture/instability, convective initiation is not likely across
Kansas through 7 pm. Perhaps an isolated storm west of Dodge City
through 7 pm, but confidence is low. 00z NAM offers the more
likely scenario, with moisture convergence near the Palmer Divide
initiating a small MCS, and tracking it into SW KS late this
evening and tonight. Pop grids follow this solution, with
chance/scattered coverage across the western zones toward
midnight. Much higher pops may be necessary eventually from Scott
City to Syracuse if the small MCS behaves as NAM suggests tonight.
Inverted-V soundings and marginal boundary layer moisture, plus
cold pool generation in Colorado, will make outflow winds to 50-60
mph the primary threat across the western zones tonight. Unlikely
to see any hail of consequence this late in the expected
convective evolution, but can`t rule out some nickels. NAM
suggests residual convective showers/leftovers may continue much
of the night across SW KS. Highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper
80s, coolest NE near Hays, and flirting with 90 along the Oklahoma
border. Lows Wednesday morning several degrees above normal,
courtesy of convective cloud debris and S/SE flow, in the lower
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016
Very summer-like pattern will persist across SW KS through the
long term. Hot afternoons, mild evenings, gusty south winds, and a
few scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day.
Astronomical summer begins June 20th, but for all practical
purposes, summer begins this week.
Wednesday...First 90 degree day expected finally at Dodge City.
850 mb temperatures spike enough to yield low to mid 90s Wednesday
afternoon. Strong south winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts. ECMWF
shows isolated evening storms W/NW of Dodge City and followed in
the grids.
00z ECMWF shows little if any change in 850 temps on a daily
basis, Thursday all the way through next Monday. Afternoon
temperatures in the lower 90s will be common. Not excessive heat,
just a good taste of summer. South winds and a constant feed of
moisture from the south will keep lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Moisture feed on persistent southerly flow will become established
by Thursday, and hang around through the weekend with dewpoints in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is more than enough moisture to
support daily crops of thunderstorms along the lee trough, and
will support daily rounds of convection coming out of Colorado in
the W/NW flow aloft. Coverage will remain scattered for the most
part, favor the hours 4 pm through 2 am, and favor the western
zones. Heat and humidity combination will support some strong to
locally severe storms each day, with a marginal wind/hail threat,
but large scale severe weather outbreaks are not expected given
broad ridging aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016
VFR will again prevail through this TAF forecast cycle. Convective
mid level debris clouds will thin overnight through sunrise
Tuesday, as a small MCS dissipates over the TX panhandle. Moisture
and instability will increase on Tuesday, in response to increased
SE surface flow. SE wind gusts of 20-25 kts are expected after
15z Tue through sunset. Instability remains quite limited near
HYS through this forecast period, so kept convection mention out
of the HYS TAF. Began a mention of VCTS at GCK/DDC at 21z Tue,
which will continue through the evening hours. 00z NAM shows a
likely scenario, with a small convective cluster (MCS) forming
over eastern Colorado by 03z Wed, and then propagating into SW KS
during the 03-09z Wed time frame. Convective impacts to aviation
would be most likely near/west of GCK Tuesday evening following
this preferred NAM solution.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 63 92 66 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 89 64 95 66 / 20 30 20 20
EHA 89 63 92 64 / 20 20 10 20
LBL 91 63 93 65 / 20 20 10 20
HYS 83 61 90 67 / 10 20 20 20
P28 90 64 91 69 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by the National Weather Topeka KS
150 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016
Northwesterly flow aloft will allow a weak cold front to sink
southward to near Interstate 70 toward early this evening, with the
front then moving slowly southward through South-Central/Southeast
KS overnight. Peak diurnal mlcapes of 750- 1200 j/kg, weakened
convective inhibition, and weak convergence along this boundary,
should allow for widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon
into mid evening, with convective activity diminishing after sunset.
Deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts and dcapes 1200-1500 j/kg could allow
for a strong storm or two with gusty winds the main threat, and
perhaps small hail.
Weak high pressure will build into the missouri valley Tuesday,
allowing for light winds, slightly cooler temperatures and mostly
sunny skies.
Will maintain low chances (20-30%) of thunderstorms Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning in central Kansas, as diurnally-
initiated convection over the higher terrain of colorado/wyoming
translates slowly eastward. Furthermore, 850 mb moisture transport
and isentropic lift (310-315K layer) could also initiate elevated
storms in Central Kansas.
The old frontal boundary will lift quickly northward through the
area Wednesday morning as a warm front, with lee troughing
developing during the day Wednesday, continuing into Thursday. Gusty
southerly winds and warming 1000-850 mb thicknesses will support
temperatures climbing to 5-10 degrees above early June averages.
Outside of a slight chance of morning storms Wednesay in central
Kansas, these two days look dry.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016
Medium range models continue to prog upper-level ridging over the
south-central CONUS Friday into Saturday, with very warm and breezy
conditions, along with dry weather. The upper ridge is progged to
flatten Sunday into Monday, as the main energy of an upper trough
over the northwestern states shifts northeastward into south-central
Canada. Gulf moisture is progged to richen ahead of a cold front
which is indicated to slide southward into the Kansas region late
Sunday through Monday. A 30-40% chance for thunderstorms by Monday
seems plausible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016
VFR conditons are expected through the next 24 hours. Northeast
winds will gradually become east-southeast through the late morning
and afternoon hours of Wednesday. Winds speeds should remain at or
below 12 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 62 83 61 88 / 10 0 20 10
Hutchinson 58 83 61 88 / 20 0 20 10
Newton 58 81 60 87 / 20 0 20 10
ElDorado 58 81 59 86 / 10 0 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 60 83 61 88 / 10 0 10 10
Russell 56 82 60 91 / 30 10 30 20
Great Bend 58 84 62 90 / 20 10 30 20
Salina 57 81 59 88 / 20 0 20 20
McPherson 57 81 60 88 / 20 0 20 20
Coffeyville 60 81 58 85 / 10 0 10 10
Chanute 59 80 57 84 / 20 0 10 10
Iola 59 80 57 84 / 20 0 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 59 80 58 85 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016
Convective debris clouds embedded in the NW flow aloft will
diminish through sunrise. Agree with previous forecaster that
most of Tuesday will be dry for most locations. SE winds pick up
noticeably today, in response to surface cyclogenesis on the
Colorado Front Range. SE wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be common,
helping to improve moisture quality and instability. Model
guidance agrees that CAPE axis (1000-1500 J/kg GFS, 1500-2200 J/kg
NAM) will reside across the NW CWA and adjoining areas late this
afternoon into this evening. With the weak front washed out and
the surface trough forced to our west in Colorado, convergence
will be lost today. As such, despite increasing SE winds and
moisture/instability, convective initiation is not likely across
Kansas through 7 pm. Perhaps an isolated storm west of Dodge City
through 7 pm, but confidence is low. 00z NAM offers the more
likely scenario, with moisture convergence near the Palmer Divide
initiating a small MCS, and tracking it into SW KS late this
evening and tonight. Pop grids follow this solution, with
chance/scattered coverage across the western zones toward
midnight. Much higher pops may be necessary eventually from Scott
City to Syracuse if the small MCS behaves as NAM suggests tonight.
Inverted-V soundings and marginal boundary layer moisture, plus
cold pool generation in Colorado, will make outflow winds to 50-60
mph the primary threat across the western zones tonight. Unlikely
to see any hail of consequence this late in the expected
convective evolution, but can`t rule out some nickels. NAM
suggests residual convective showers/leftovers may continue much
of the night across SW KS. Highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper
80s, coolest NE near Hays, and flirting with 90 along the Oklahoma
border. Lows Wednesday morning several degrees above normal,
courtesy of convective cloud debris and S/SE flow, in the lower
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016
Our first taste of summer weather will greet us later in the week
with widespread lower to mid 90s forecast for highs beginning
Wednesday. With the polar jet stream shifting way up north into
Canada, the lower-mid troposphere will warm up substantially front
he Intermountain West/Great Basin region all the way east to the
High Plains, including southwest Kansas. A very minor disturbance
will push into western Kansas through the larger scale ridge, but
this feature will not have much in the way of forcing for ascent to
provide any meaningful chance for widespread convective activity
(Thursday). The persistent large scale ridge pattern will lead to a
continuation of south winds in the 10 to 20 mph range each day
Wednesday through the weekend with no major wind shift in sight (at
least through the end of the weekend). We will likely see daily
terrain-induced convection out west in Colorado and northern New
Mexico, however the paltry mid-upper tropospheric flow will keep
this activity fairly well contained. There will be a very slight
chance for an occasional isolated storm along the lee trough axis,
however even this convective activity should be quite limited in
coverage and duration. The lower-mid 90s forecast will continue all
the way through Sunday (or later?) until the next polar front makes
a run at southwest Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016
VFR will again prevail through this TAF forecast cycle. Convective
mid level debris clouds will thin overnight through sunrise
Tuesday, as a small MCS dissipates over the TX panhandle. Moisture
and instability will increase on Tuesday, in response to increased
SE surface flow. SE wind gusts of 20-25 kts are expected after
15z Tue through sunset. Instability remains quite limited near
HYS through this forecast period, so kept convection mention out
of the HYS TAF. Began a mention of VCTS at GCK/DDC at 21z Tue,
which will continue through the evening hours. 00z NAM shows a
likely scenario, with a small convective cluster (MCS) forming
over eastern Colorado by 03z Wed, and then propagating into SW KS
during the 03-09z Wed time frame. Convective impacts to aviation
would be most likely near/west of GCK Tuesday evening following
this preferred NAM solution.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 86 63 92 / 20 10 20 10
GCK 59 88 63 95 / 30 20 30 10
EHA 61 90 63 93 / 60 20 20 10
LBL 61 90 64 94 / 30 20 20 10
HYS 57 84 60 91 / 20 0 20 10
P28 62 89 64 91 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1107 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2016
Currently strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over the
far southwest portion of the area. Building cumulus and new
thunderstorms have just developed to the northeast of the above
mentioned development. All this due to a surface trough draped
from southwest to northeast across the forecast area with a
shortwave trough and weak right rear quadrant of the jet on top of
this surface feature.
Hires/convective allowing guidance, especially the HRRR and Rap
have caught this current activity very well. Additional
development and slow movement toward the south and east will
continue into the early morning hours. Made slight adjustments mainly
to this evenings pop trends.
Cold front moves through during the night and will be south and
west of the area by the beginning of the day. East to southeast
winds will increase into the breezy category. Main surface
convergence lies to the west of the area. However, a rather strong
shortwave trough will move in from the west late in the day.
Expect thunderstorms to develop over eastern Colorado in the
middle and late afternoon hours. Will once again have good low
level lapse rates and directional shear. Speed shear will be a
little better. So the threat of severe thunderstorms will have to
be watched closely again. High temperatures will be a little cooler
due to the easterly upslope flow.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2016
Tuesday evening the setup for rainfall will be very similar to
today. An upper level short wave trough will move into the Tri-
State area from the northwest. Mixed layer CAPE quickly becomes
capped moving into East Central Colorado from the west. There may
be some scattered storms to start the evening...but expect the peak
storm coverage to occur during the mid evening as lift increases
with both the short wave trough and the nose of the low level jet.
Soundings show some elevated CAPE that is not capped during the
evening over the west half of the area where the lift from the short
wave trough and nose of the low level jet will be highest. Am
expecting storm coverage to increase as a result through the
evening. After midnight storm coverage will move northeast ahead of
the low level jet for an hour or so then end as the upper level
short wave trough moves south of the area.
Wednesday afternoon and evening will be a repeat of Tuesday as far
as the setup for storms to form. A weak surface wind convergence
area will exist just west of the Tri-State area near the surface
low. Overhead an upper level short wave trough will move through.
Soundings indicate the surface instability will largely be capped
off where the lift will be best. However there is some elevated
instability present over the far western part of the area that will
allow storms to form. The elevated instability will gradually shift
east into the Tri-State area during the evening. The elevated
instability will dissipate through the latter half of the evening as
it slowly progresses eastward into Kansas. At the same time the
short wave trough overhead will shift southeast out of the area.
Overall do not expect storms to move very far into Kansas before
moving out of the lift and elevated instability during the evening.
Thursday through Monday the trend of the upper level ridge is
slightly slower than yesterday...again. There will be some very low
chances for rainfall through the week ahead of the ridge. Low
chances for rainfall return during the weekend behind the ridge as
the upper level flow turns more to the southwest. However the upper
level trough moving onto the west coast is further north over the
Pacific Northwest. With the trough further north...chances for
rainfall for early next week are not as high due to the lift ahead
of the trough focused more over the northern plains.
Temperatures for Wednesday through Sunday will remain fairly
constant with readings in the low to mid 90s. Monday a cold front
will move through the area. The cooler air will keep highs in the
low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK for the remainder of tonight
through Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds will increase by mid to
late Tuesday morning with mixing. At KGLD...scattered
thunderstorms will move out of northeast Colorado Tuesday evening
associated with an upper shortwave trough. Brief gusty winds may
accompany these storms.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Minor update this evening for mostly an adjustment to storm
chances. Line of weak convection just moving into our western
areas. HRRR shifts this activity northeast with time...keeping it
mainly to the north and west of Billings through midnight and
even after midnight up toward Roundup. Gusty winds will be the
main threat to around 50 mph and could put out some outflow into
southern areas with its passage to the north. Frieders
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...
The weather pattern will be more active the next 5 days across
our forecast area. Currently, High pressure ridging and axis will
continue to dominate this afternoon. Satellite showing mostly
sunny skies across the area with some cu development but the
atmosphere is currently capped. The only thunderstorm so far has
been over the Big Horn Mountains with very little if any movement.
Hi Res models show an area of convergence across Carter County
late this afternoon so a slight pop chance has been added to his
area early this evening.
The main weather feature is an upper low and trough currently
moving across the Pacific Northwest into western and north central
Montana. This is also where the best upper level support and
dynamics will be for the remainder of this afternoon into this
evening. SPC slight risk remains across the west and northwest
portions of the state with a marginal risk across our area. Hi
Res models also showing activity developing over the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains late this afternoon into this evening
with little movement onto the plains. Strongest activity looks to
be over southwest Montana and as far east of Bozeman and
Lewistown. However, we can`t rule out an isolated strong or severe
thunderstorm west and northwest of Billings through this evening.
Otherwise, expect a mostly clear to partly cloudy night with very
warm overnight lows.
Thursday & Friday...Above mentioned trough and upper level
disturbance will move across the forecast area Thursday into
Friday. A cold front will also move across the area during the
early afternoon across our central and western areas and the far
southeast late in the afternoon, with another cold front to affect
the area Friday. CAPES of around 1000-1200 J/KG will be across the
area. Shear values will also be much better especially across the
north, central and western areas Thursday and most of the area
Friday. In addition, precip waters will be high around an inch
across most of the area. All this combined with steep lapse rates
will bring the likelihood of severe thunderstorms containing large
hail, damaging winds and heavy rain Thursday afternoon and evening
and again on Friday. Temperatures will continue to be very hot
with most areas experiencing middle to upper 90s thursday and
just a few degrees cooler for Friday. Hooley
.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
Saturday marks a transition in the upper level pattern to more southwesterly
flow aloft. An upper level low will move onto the OR/WA coast
helping to build the heights over the central plains. Highs on
Saturday will reach the low 90s, helping to create some
instability, setting the stage for potential thunderstorm
development on Sunday.
Based on the current model guidance, the strongest low level
winds will be just east of the BYZ CWA on Sunday, in the Western
Dakotas. Model sounding analyses are hinting at wind being the
primary threat at this time, with the storms being high based in
nature. At the current time, would expect the strongest storms,
some severe in nature, to be from Billings eastward. Heavy rain
may also be a threat, with high precipitable water values on the
order of over an inch over SE Montana.
Temps will be cooler Sunday and Monday before warming up again by
mid week, with the potential of another round of thunderstorms
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Singer
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail overnight. A few thunderstorms will
occur into central Montana late this evening and overnight...reaching
as far east as KBIL. More widespread storms are expected after 18z
Thursday. Frieders
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/094 057/091 062/089 060/081 051/076 051/081 053/083
13/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 11/U 11/B
LVM 056/090 051/089 055/083 051/075 045/071 045/076 047/077
34/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 11/B 12/T
HDN 060/097 055/093 062/092 058/083 051/078 050/083 051/085
13/T 31/U 23/T 33/T 33/T 11/B 11/B
MLS 065/097 061/093 067/097 066/085 056/078 054/083 056/085
13/T 40/U 23/T 33/T 33/T 22/T 11/U
4BQ 062/099 058/095 066/100 065/088 055/079 051/083 053/086
12/T 40/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 060/097 057/091 064/095 064/086 053/077 050/079 051/083
12/T 40/U 12/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 21/B
SHR 055/095 051/093 058/094 058/084 049/075 047/080 049/085
23/T 31/U 13/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
We added a slight chance of thunderstorms to far northwestern ND
from about 11 to 14 UTC given some consistency advertising a few
cells in that time and space by the HRRR and ESRL-HRRR. Forecast
soundings from the RAP do suggest capping is limited enough for
elevated parcels lifted from about 700 MB to allow for a low-end
storm chance, and the 00 UTC Glasgow RAOB showed weaker elevated
mixed layer capping over northern parts of the region than the 00
UTC Bismarck sounding, supportive of those RAP soundings. Other-
wise, only minor changes were made to the overnight forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Overall, the going forecast is on track and only minor changes
were made with this update. Low PoPs continue this evening over
far north central ND. The main item of interest as of the late
afternoon is surface dewpoints, which are steadily increasing on
south-southeast winds, but falling short of what models expect.
The 12 and 18 UTC GFS simulations appear to have the greatest
overestimations locally (high biases ranging from just under 5 F
at Bismarck to almost 10 F in far north central ND). However, even
the NAM and ECMWF are simulating greater-than-observed surface
moisture quality, with the latter`s greatest errors in southeast
SD where it expects dewpoints around 70 F by the early evening.
This could be related to less evapotranspiration than reality at
this point in the growing season, but regardless will be an
important consideration over the next few days while we view
model CAPE and CIN fields to develop the thunderstorm forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 458 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Quick update to add a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms to far north central ND centered on Rolla for the
late afternoon and early evening. That`s in respect to showers
and weak thunderstorms moving out of southwest Manitoba and into
far northern ND just before 22 UTC. Surface dewpoints range from
the mid 40s to the lower 50s F ahead of that activity, yielding
SBCAPE less than 500 J/kg per the SPC mesoscale analysis, so we
don`t expect much if any strength to that activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Model soundings have a good cap in place across the region and
convection has been slow to organize. A weak shortwave trough is
undercutting the h500 ridge over the northern plains Wednesday
afternoon. This feature is supporting some organized convection
across northeast South Dakota bit not in North Dakota. Have
removed the chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight other than the far north central where a weak frontal
boundary has lingered and may maintain weak showers for the
evening.
Tonight low level profiles suggested some patchy fog is possible
in the James river valley and added patchy fog there after
midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The extended forecast will focus on thunderstorms and warm
temperatures. As the h500 ridge moves over the northern plains
Thursday, very warm temperatures are expected across west and
central North Dakota. By Thursday afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form along a weak cold front moving into western North
Dakota that will finally break the cap. While instability is
sufficient the shear is marginal. It is expected thunderstorms
have a marginal threat to become severe Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.
Friday looks generally dry in the wake of the cold front which
should limit convection to the james river valley and ending by
afternoon.
Eventually this front will end up as an east-west boundary across
northern South Dakota on Saturday. This will bring somewhat cooler
air into the north, while upper 80s to lower 90s reside across
the south. Southeast return wind flow will increase moisture
across the region during the day Saturday. This will set up a
better chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday night
as low pressure deepens across southwest North Dakota. The
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table still shows precipitable
water in the climatological 99th percentile across the northwest
part of the state. Still too uncertain to forecast at this time
but this pattern suggests at least a possibility of heavy rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Thursday over western and
central ND. However, shallow fog with sub-VFR conditions may occur
in the southern James River valley, including at KJMS, from about
09 to 14 UTC. Thunderstorms could develop across western ND after
21 UTC Thursday, as well, but confidence in their timing was not
high enough for even a VCTS mention in either the KISN or KDIK
TAFs with the 00 UTC forecast release.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
311 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING , MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL. WEST OF THE
CASCADES THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT CHANCES ARE THAT CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL MOSTLY SHEAR APART
BEFORE PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF A WEST-
SIDE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES IN EASTERN
DOUGLAS AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS
WILL BE 10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY, AND HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE 25-30F COOLER THAN TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOSTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR CIGS DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALSO, TRW IS NEARING THE VICINITY OF
KLMT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADES, AND WERE MOVING ENE OVER KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, BUT MAY EXTEND BACK TO THE
MARBLE AND SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO AREAS
THAT CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIZZLE
AND PATCHY IFR FOG. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY
AROUND 12Z, INCLUDING KRBG, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS BOTH NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. STORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
HAIL NEAR STORM CORES. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS NORTHWARD. A TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INTO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE COAST
WITH HIGHER RECOVERIES EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AND STRONG,
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE RIDGES. DESPITE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE AND MAY EVEN DROP BELOW 10%
IN SOME AREAS EAST OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. ANY NEW OR EXISTING
FIRES IN THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND INTO
WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER AROUND OF STEEP...WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. A QUIETER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Boise ID
349 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Daytime heating has
initiated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Expect brief heavy rain and gusty winds with the stronger storms.
Storms could be better organized this evening across Harney and
Baker Counties as increased /30 kts/ 0-6 km shear overspreads
East-Central Oregon ahead of an upper level trough. High
precipitable waters and surface CAPE values between 500 and 1000
J/KG should favor longer-lived storms for heavy rain, strong
outflow winds and possible small hail. Storms will initiate over
central Oregon and propagate east-northeast into Harney/Baker
Counties after 5 pm PDT. There is potential that some of these
storms could go over the Cornet-Windy Ridge burn scar in Baker
County so a Flash Flood Watch as been issued from 00z to 06z
tonight. Wednesday, the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
over the Intermountain West as the upper level trough approaches
the west coast. West-Southwesterly winds will increase during the
day with only a slight chance for thunderstorms in the higher
terrain of Southeast Oregon. Wednesday will be the warmest day of
the week with temperatures near record. Cold frontal passage
Thursday morning will shift winds to the northwest with
temperatures cooling to about 5 degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday...Upper level low off the
southwest British Columbia coast Thursday night will sink south to
just off the Washington/Oregon coast by Friday night then shift
inland to Washington by Sunday. Models in good agreement with this
system but differ slightly on the location of the center of the low.
Models in fairly good agreement with this weather pattern but differ
on location of precipitation. Thursday night and Friday forecast area
will be dry under a southwesterly flow, but depending on how far
south the associated trough digs could see some small pops over
northern zones. Will keep the slight chance pops along our northwest
border but may need to increase in later forecasts if the position
of the trough changes. As the upper level low shifts inland will see
an increasing chance of precipitation over northern zones but with
the current weather pattern looks like southern zones will remain
dry. Temperatures Friday will average 7-10 degrees above normal with
temperatures cooling to 5-7 degrees below normal for the weekend as
the upper level low and associated trough moves over the forecast
area.
Sunday night through Tuesday...The area will see a slight break
Sunday night into Monday as the trough axis progresses eastward and
the next upper level trough begins to dig down from off the British
Columbia coastline. Temperatures will return to normal by Monday and
stay this way through the period. By Tuesday afternoon the next
trough pushes further south and the associated moisture starts to
make its presence felt in northern Baker County and the West Central
Mountains. Increased chances of precipitation by the end of the
period as this trough pushes closer to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered mid-level clouds tonight with areas of
broken mid level clouds through this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening, decreasing after 06Z. Thunderstorms may
produce brief heavy rain and wind gusts up to 45 knots. Winds aloft
southwest to west 5-15 knots up through 10K feet MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening ORZ062.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
247 PM PDT Tue Jun 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will shift east tonight with
increasing southerly flow aloft. A few cumulus clouds are building
along the Cascade crest, so a few showers or evening thunderstorms
may form along the crest and move east as the southerly flow
increases. A series of systems bring cooler temperatures and showers
to Washington and Oregon for the rest of the week. The first one
will arrive Wednesday, followed a weak front Thursday. A upper level
low will move close to the Washington coast Friday, then inland
Saturday. a weak front in westerly flow will move through Sunday.
Another low will develop offshore early next week. Intermittent
showers will develop, perhaps some thunder Saturday, and
temperatures falling to near or slightly below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...Satellite imagery
shows mid and high clouds approaching the coast. There are also some
scattered cumulus east of the Oregon Cascades. The steering flow is
more southwesterly today,so any storms that form should move into
Central Oregon.
An upper level low near 40N/133W will bring a series of disturbances
into southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. This system will
bring a surface low toward our forecast area from the southwest
later tonight and lift out through our area Wednesday afternoon.
There may be a weak frontal boundary associated with the system.
This should bring increase clouds to the forecast area late tonight
and Wednesday with a push of marine clouds inland. We should see a
few showers as it moves through, though QPF should be on the light
side. Temperatures should drop considerably Wednesday, closer to
seasonal normals inland.
This will be followed by a cooler low dropping south from the Gulf of
Alaska and moving into the Pacific Northwest Thursday for more
showers. This system also looks to be accompanied by a front that
will move onshore Thursday. Highs inland from Thursday and beyond
could stay below normal into next week. We may start to see a dusting
of snow in the higher Cascades Thursday. Coonfield
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)...Models continue to
remain in relatively good agreement through the extended forecast
showing the Pacific NW transitioning to a cooler and showery pattern
under an upper level trough Thursday night through Saturday.
There are slight differences in the strength and timing of the
shortwaves moving through the trough but the troughy pattern will
produce widespread chance pops for Friday and Saturday. Snow levels
will lower towards 5000 ft for Saturday so some light accumulations
in the Cascades appears likely. Didi not make any changes in Sunday
because of lack of confidence in timing of the weak disturbances in
westerly flow. Coonfield
&&
.AVIATION...Mild southwesterly flow aloft will maintain VFR
conditions in the interior under variable high clouds through
tonight. Will see some cumulus clouds pop over the Oregon Cascades
later this evening, with an isolated thunderstorm or two along the
crest south of Mt Hood. Clouds in the interior increase late tonight
as marine stratus surges inland, with the potential for MVFR cigs
around 2500 ft Wednesday morning.
Coastal status has dissipated this afternoon but expect MVFR stratus
to return this evening, with IFR stratus likely tonight.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR continues the next 24 hours under
variable high clouds. Clouds increase early Wednesday morning as
marine stratus pushes up the Columbia River.
&&
.MARINE...High pressure over the NE Pac will maintain gusty
Northwest to north winds over the waters through this evening,
stronger over north portions of the outer waters. The high will
weaken tonight into Wed as low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska
moves southeast and remains quasi stationary off the British
Columbia coast. This will bring a shift to more westerly winds,
generally 15 kt or less.
Seas are generally around 5 ft today, but with shorter periods due
to the gusty northerly winds. The Small Craft Advisory will be
continued through 8 PM this evening for the choppy seas and gusty
winds. Both winds and seas are expected to diminish late in the
evening. As the new low approaches the area, winds and seas will
become rather benign, with winds 15 kt or less and seas 3 to 6 ft.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds and hazardous seas until
8 PM PDT this evening for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA
to Florence OR from 10 to 60 PM.
&&
$$
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
215 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Night...Showers and scattered
thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across Central
Oregon...Ochoco-John Day Highlands...Southern Blue Mountains and
southern Wallowa County. These storms are expected to continue to
develop...expanding in areal coverage while moving off to the
northeast at around 20 MPH. During the evening hours today these
isolated to scattered storms are expected to push north into parts
of North-Central Oregon...the Northern Blue Mountains and the
immediate Blue Mountain Foothills. Any storms that do develop could
produce brief heavy downpours, cloud to ground lightning, small hail
and localized gusty winds. SPC continues to outline Central Oregon
in a marginal risk for severe storms through the evening hours.
Latest SPC meso analysis shows SB CAPE values running between 800-
1200 Joules with LIs near -3...so the atmosphere is fairly unstable.
DCAPE Values are also quite high, near 1200-1300 Joules. Effective
bulk shear is marginal at this time, between 20-30 Kts. based on all
of this data the highest threat from these storms appears to be the
potential for localized gusty winds into the evening hours. The
threat for strong storms should diminish quickly after about 9-11
PM. These storms are moving steadily...so think that although brief
heavy downpours will be possible most should produce under a quarter
inch of rain.
Otherwise heat advisories remain in effect until 9 PM this evening
for the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valleys as temperatures again
hover around 100 degrees here. Most of Washington (except the Blue
Mountains) are expected to remain mostly clear & dry through the
evening hours.
The forecast area will see a brief break in the activity
overnight...with just some isolated showers around and perhaps a
lingering isolated thunderstorm.
On Wednesday chances for showers and thunderstorms again increase as
a cold front approaches the CWA. Wind shear will be much
stronger...with 0-6 km bulk shear values forecast to be near 60 Kts.
The key will be instability...if the atmosphere can become unstable
enough then strong to severe storms will again be possible...mainly
over Northeast Oregon. The SPC has this area in a marginal risk for
severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooling down
on Wednesday...with highs in the 80s to lower 90s in the
valleys/basins...with upper 60s and 70s mountains. Westerly winds
will also be increasing later in the day...becoming 20-35 MPH over
the Columbia Gorge, Basin and surrounding areas. This combined with
low relative humidity will create hazardous fire weather conditions
for parts of the area...see Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details. Conditions will be generally dry later Wednesday night and
Thursday morning in a southwest flow. Another upper level trough
approaches Thursday afternoon and night bringing renewed chances for
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms...mainly in the
mountains. High temperatures fall into the 70s and lower 80s
Thursday afternoon. 77
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday. An upper low will be moving
across the forecast area Friday into late Saturday. This will result
in mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. This
system will be exiting the region early Sunday with clearing skies
and warmer temps. Another upper low will be approaching the Pac NW
Mon and Tue with a southwest flow aloft. Expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies with a chance of showers mainly over the mountains.
Temperatures in the 60s and 70s. GFS and EURO models are in fairly
good agreement through the extended period. 94
&&
.AVIATION...18z Tafs. Satellite showing an area of cirrus moving
across the region this morning along with some cumulus over central
Oregon. Instability will increase today so expect cumulus to develop
over the higher terrain with sct 040-080 sct-bkn 100-200 this
afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected vcty RDM BDN. Winds 5-15kt. Remaining sct-bkn 100-150
overnight with winds 5-10kt. Increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wed along with westerly winds. 94
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warnings will be issued for the combination
of gusty winds and low relative humidity (RH) Wednesday afternoon
and evening in Fire Zones WA641, WA675 and OR641 which includes the
Lower Columbia Basin...the Yakima Valley...and the Hanford District.
The fuels in this area are primarily grass and are dry with
additional curing the past several days associated with record high
temps and RH values in the teens. The winds will increase during
the mid afternoon and become windy by the early evening hours.
Although the RH will be considerably higher than what has been
recently observed...the winds should be strong enough to warrant Red
Flag Warnings. The thunderstorm threat will be another fire weather
concern for this evening and on Wednesday...and the lightning
activity level (LAL) could be a 3-4 indicating the potential for
many strikes but also moderate to heavy rain. Wister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 86 55 79 / 20 30 30 10
ALW 70 87 59 79 / 20 30 30 10
PSC 67 91 57 83 / 10 20 30 10
YKM 64 88 52 79 / 10 10 10 10
HRI 67 89 55 81 / 10 20 20 10
ELN 61 81 52 72 / 0 10 10 10
RDM 57 82 45 73 / 30 20 10 10
LGD 59 85 53 75 / 40 40 30 20
GCD 59 88 53 78 / 40 40 30 10
DLS 64 80 56 77 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ641.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ641-675.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ027-028.
&&
$$
77/94/94/85
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
244 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Daytime heating has
initiated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Expect brief heavy rain and gusty winds with the stronger storms.
Storms could be better organized this evening across Harney and
Baker Counties as increased /30 kts/ 0-6 km shear over spreads
East- Central Oregon ahead of an upper level trough. High
precipitable waters and surface CAPEs values between 500 and 100
J/KG should favor longer-lived storms for heavy rain, strong
outflow winds and possible small hail. Storms will initiate over
central Oregon and propagate east-northeast into Harney/Baker
Counties after 5 pm PDT. There is potential that some of these
storms could go over the Cornet- Windy Ridge burn scar in Baker
County so a Flash Flood Watch as been issued from 00z to 06z
tonight. Wednesday, the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
over the Intermountain West as the upper level trough approaches
the west coast. West- Southwesterly winds will increase during the
day with only a slight chance for thunderstorms in the higher
terrain of Southeast Oregon. Wednesday will be the warmest day of
the week with temperatures near record. Cold frontal passage
Thursday morning will shift winds to the northwest with
temperatures cooling to about 5 degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday...Upper level low off the
southwest British Columbia coast Thursday night will sink south to
just off the Washington/Oregon coast by Friday night then shift
inland to Washington by Sunday. Models in good agreement with this
system but differ slightly on the location of the center of the low.
Models in fairly good agreement with this weather pattern but differ
on location of precipitation. Thursday night and Friday forecast area
will be dry under a southwesterly flow, but depending on how far
south the associated trough digs could see some small pops over
northern zones. Will keep the slight chance pops along our northwest
border but may need to increase in later forecasts if the position
of the trough changes. As the upper level low shifts inland will see
an increasing chance of precipitation over northern zones but with
the current weather pattern looks like southern zones will remain
dry. Temperatures Friday will average 7-10 degrees above normal with
temperatures cooling to 5-7 degrees below normal for the weekend as
the upper level low and associated trough moves over the forecast
area.
Sunday night through Tuesday...The area will see a slight break
Sunday night into Monday as the trough axis progresses eastward and
the next upper level trough begins to dig down from off the British
Columbia coastline. Temperatures will return to normal by Monday and
stay this way through the period. By Tuesday afternoon the next
trough pushes further south and the associated moisture starts to
make its presence felt in northern Baker County and the West Central
Mountains. Increased chances of precipitation by the end of the
period as this trough pushes closer to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered mid-level clouds tonight with areas of
broken mid level clouds through this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening, decreasing after 06Z. Thunderstorms may
produce brief heavy rain and wind gusts up to 45 knots. Winds aloft
southwest to west 5-15 knots up through 10K feet MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening ORZ062.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1007 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.UPDATE...Only minor adjustments to the short term forecast were
made. Scaled down PoPs and pushed further west through 21z...then
increased PoPs for showers and scattered thunderstorms across
Central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands through 00z.
Between 00-06z brought the chance/slight chance of thunderstorms
further north into the Northern Blue Mountains and along the
immediate Blue Mountain Foothills. SPC has parts of the area (mainly
Deschutes...Crook...Wheeler and Grant Counties)in a marginal outlook
for possible severe storms later today. This seems reasonable
looking at the latest forecast soundings which indicate around 1000-
1500 Joules of MUCAPE, 1100-1300 Joules of DCAPE, LIs near -5,
equilibrium levels near 40K FT AGL. 0-6 KM bulk shear values are
only forecast to be between 15-25 KTs so this may be a limiting
factor today. The latest HRRR shows convective initiation between 20-
22z over Central Oregon with the storms then moving Northeast into
the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Southern Blue Mtns during the late
afternoon. The HRRR is also indicating that localized gusty winds
may be the bigger threat with any storms that form and this makes
sense giving the relatively large DCAPE Values.
Otherwise skies will remain mostly clear across far northern Oregon
and much of Washington through the day with the hot weather
continuing. Heat Advisories remain in effect for the Lower Columbia
Basin in Oregon and Washington along with the Yakima Valley through
this evening. High temperatures here will range from 99 to 104
degrees with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 60s tonight.
For the surrounding lower elevations look for highs in the mid-90s
to near 100 this afternoon...except low to mid 90s in Central Oregon
and the Columbia Gorge.
Winds will become breezy later this afternoon and evening in and
around the Columbia Gorge...with westerly winds 15 to 25 MPH
expected here. Elsewhere...outside of any thunderstorm
impacts...winds will remain less than 15 MPH.
.AVIATION...18z Tafs. Satellite showing an area of cirrus moving
across the region this morning along with some cumulus over central
Oregon. Instability will increase today so expect cumulus to develop
over the higher terrain with sct 040-080 sct-bkn 100-200 this
afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected vcty RDM BDN. Winds 5-15kt. Remaining sct-bkn 100-150
overnight with winds 5-10kt. Increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wed along with westerly winds. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016/
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...The upper ridge that brought
the hot weather will continue one more day of very hot temperatures.
However...the ridge axis will shift east a little more. This
combined with an approaching trough off the coast will allow the
flow to become more southwest today. As a result more moisture and
instability will work its way further north into the CWA today for a
greater chance and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. These storms
could become strong with small hail and gusty winds. SPC has the
southern portion of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms
today. The heat advisory has been extended through this evening for
the Lower Columbia Basin and the Yakima Valley. Temperatures in the
advisory area will be at or greater than 100. Elsewhere temperatures
will be in the 90s...except 80s in the mountains. On Wednesday the
flow will become more southerly ahead of a cold front that will move
into the Pacific Northwest. This will transport more moisture and
instability further north. Wednesday will have the greatest coverage
of thunderstorms. Again SPC has portions of the CWA in a marginal
risk for severe storms...this time mainly over the northeast
mountains. Will have thunderstorm wording in the chance category
again with a mention of possible gusty winds and small hail from the
Blue Mountain Foothills southwest to central Oregon and southward.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday than
today. The cooling trend will continue on Thursday. Showers and
afternoon thunderstorms will mainly be over the John Day Highlands
northeast across the Blue Mountains eastward. There will be a chance
of showers over central Oregon and along the Cascade east slopes on
Thursday. Temperatures will be an additional 10 degrees cooler on
Thursday than Wednesday. The cooling trend with showery weather will
continue into the extended forecast. It will also become breezy to
windy beginning Wednesday. Until then winds will be light. 88
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday night...Overview...Friday
will start a string of several days where highs will only be in the
70s, with lower 80s possible in a few locations, and upper 50s to
60s mountains. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with mid
30s to mid 40s mountains. Some higher elevation cities like
Sunriver, Seneca, and Ukiah could toy with brief freezing
temperatures on Saturday morning. Friday and Saturday look to be
the best days for showers and/or thunderstorms across the forecast
area, with the better chances over the mountains. The shower
potential will continue Sunday and Monday but will be more focused
over central and northeast Oregon. Each day poses a chance for
breezy winds across the lower elevations, but don`t expect gusts to
exceed 25-30 mph. With the weather system lingering over the area
for the extended, expect partly to mostly clouds skies each day. If
you plan on camping outdoors this weekend, especially in the
mountains, be prepared for cold overnight lows.
Synopsis...A large low pressure system just off the coast of
Washington will continue to spin down to the Oregon coast by Friday
evening providing relief from the hot temperatures earlier this past
weekend and earlier this week, but unsettled weather for the
extended. Southwest flow shifting to southerly flow on Saturday will
allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to most areas. Have
confined the thunderstorm coverage to mainly the mountains with
showers elsewhere. With the low approaching surface gradients are
expected to tighten across the lower elevations and promote breezy
conditions, especially in the afternoon when better mixing occurs.
By early Sunday morning the low is expected to be centered over the
WA/OR boarder just east of the Cascades. Due to stable conditions
overnight and the coolest air aloft in place some clearing may allow
for temperatures to reach freezing across the higher elevations.
Expect slightly warmer temperatures on Monday as a westerly flow
takes place. A slight chance of showers over the mountains will
still be possible due to upslope flow and marginal instability.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 99 64 86 55 / 10 20 30 40
ALW 97 69 87 59 / 10 20 30 30
PSC 102 66 91 58 / 0 10 20 20
YKM 100 63 88 53 / 0 10 20 20
HRI 101 66 89 55 / 0 10 20 20
ELN 96 60 82 51 / 0 0 20 20
RDM 92 57 84 45 / 40 30 30 30
LGD 93 59 86 54 / 20 40 30 40
GCD 93 59 88 54 / 30 40 30 30
DLS 96 63 80 55 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044.
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ027-028.
&&
$$
77/94/94
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 87 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 87 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure has moved east of Arkansas. Light east and southeast
winds are expected today across the area. Patchy fog around ADF
will dissipate rapidly this morning. Mainly high cirrus will be
seen today. VFR conditions will continue through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 87 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 87 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
542 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist for most sites through the period
once again. The only exception may be some patchy fog at ADF near
sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday night
Upper level ridging is building overhead and will remain situated
atop Arkansas through the short term period. Some afternoon CU
can be seen bubbling up in western Arkansas this afternoon,
evidence of a return flow pattern beginning to setup across the
Arklatex region. Expect to see the CU a little further east
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure continues to slide east of
the state, and Gulf moisture makes headway into Arkansas. Alas,
it`s summertime, summertime...
And because it is summertime, temperatures will feel just as they
should. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be the norm this
afternoon and again tomorrow. Overnight readings will also be
warm, with lows from the mid 60s to near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Thursday
A typical summer like pattern will be seen for much of the long term
period as upper level ridging will be in place across much of
southern and central sections of the country. Beneath this ridge,
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
seen over the weekend and more so into the early part of next week.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for the period, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity values will
increase by early next week, which will lead to increased heat
indices. Will likely avoid widespread indices of 105 but values
greater than 100 will be possible early next week.
Some weakening in the upper ridge may be seen into the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trough looks to move in from
the SW US. This trough will likely ride over the top of the ridge,
compressing it southward, as move toward the Midwest from the
Southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will also approach
from the northwest, which will help initiate some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 66 89 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Camden AR 67 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison AR 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
Hot Springs AR 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
Little Rock AR 67 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
Monticello AR 68 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 20
Mount Ida AR 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 20
Mountain Home AR 65 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
Newport AR 67 90 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff AR 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
Russellville AR 66 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
Searcy AR 66 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart AR 68 91 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...226
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
123 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Not much to discuss. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. No rain is expected and the only clouds will be some high
clouds and FEW-SCT bases around 6000ft AGL mainly in western and
northern Arkansas.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016 )
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure has moved east of Arkansas. Light east and southeast
winds are expected today across the area. Patchy fog around ADF
will dissipate rapidly this morning. Mainly high cirrus will be
seen today. VFR conditions will continue through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A large ridge of high pressure is over the center part of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third...and another
trough entering the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge will
spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of the
country by Friday night.
With surface high pressure just east of Arkansas...light east and
southeast winds are expected today. Warm and dry weather will
continue through the period. No rainfall is expected through Friday
night. Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
highs and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru
the weekend and into next week. Upr ridging is fcst to persist ovr
the mid section of the nation early in the pd...with a slow
weakening trend commencing thereafter.
Meanwhile...low lvl moisture wl cont to sloly incrs over time as a
south wind flow prevails. High temps thru the pd wl generally range
fm the upper 80s to the lower 90s...about 3 to 5 degrees abv normal
for this time of year. Expect some locations to see aftn heat index
readings apch the century mark durg the pd.
As far as rain chcs go...typical summertime wx pattern wl result in
low chc pops thru the pd as several weak upr impulses work thru the
region. Convective trends wl be mainly diurnal in nature each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 91 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 87 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 87 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. However...
there could be some MVFR fog at ADF. High pressure has shifted
east of the area...with some southerly flow returning. As a
result...moisture levels will be increasing. Precipitation is not
expected through this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
Weak upper flow continues over the Central Plains this afternoon.
A weak upper trough was evident in the water vapor imagery over
western Nebraska into to the Texas Panhandle. Another weakening
circulation was moving across southeast Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma. Surface dry line was located over the high plains and
will move very little. Short term models differ with convection
this evening with the HRRR and and the RUC moving in some
weakening convection from the west during the late evening hours
into north central Kansas. The experimental HRRR keeps
precipitation to the west and diminishes it before moving to the
east of U.S. 81 Highway tonight. Will continue with small
precipitation chances in north central Kansas tonight. Lows
tonight will continue to be mild with readings in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Friday, Another good warm up is expected with the thermal ridge
extending into central Kansas have increased highs slightly into the
mid 90s with lower 90s elsewhere across northeast and east central
Kansas. The afternoon heat index will reach near 100 degrees across
parts of north central and northeast Kansas with the rest of the
area in the mid to upper 90s heat index. Weak upper trough/wave
moves across central and east Kansas on Friday. There is little in
the way of surface moisture convergence with the absence of any
boundary and a small EML remains in place through much of the day.
The upper trough fills as it moves east with the NAM the strongest
with the upper energy. Cannot rule out an isolated late afternoon
storm out in central Kansas, but confidence is not high enough to
include in forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
For Friday night through Sunday, the main question with the
forecast is whether a lobe of vorticity gets trapped within the
upper ridge over the state. This idea was not in the operational
models yesterday, and now have almost a weak closed low aloft
near the forecast area during the weekend. Therefore confidence is
not all that great. Forecast soundings suggest the airmass will be
conditionally unstable with little inhibition to convection. So if
this piece of energy is near the area, there could be some
diurnally driven convection Saturday and/or Sunday. For now have
left POPs around 10 percent but later shifts may need to increase
chances if models continue to leave behind this energy within the
ridge. The forecast appears to be in good shape regarding forecast
temps as there isn`t much chance in the solution`s thermal
profiles. Highs are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s as
forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to around 825MB.
Continued southerly flow and dewpoints holding in the 60s
overnight support the lows forecast for temps bottoming out around
70 degrees.
Precip chances should be on the increase for Sunday night through
much of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and energy from
the west passes through the plains. An initial shortwave is
progged to pass through the central plains Sunday night and early
Monday. Then a more amplified system moves slowly across the
plains through Wednesday. The medium range models have come into
better agreement in closing off an upper low just north of the
forecast area by Wednesday. Think the better chances for precip
will be Monday through Tuesday night as the upper wave initially
moves out from the southern Rockies and a surface wave lifts
across the area. After Wednesday, there are question on where the
closed low drifts to and a possible dry slot working into the
area. Have held onto some small POPs Wednesday night and across
eastern KS for Thursday to account for the closed low in the
region. The models show temps trending cooler for next week as the
upper system moves through the region. However am a little
concerned temps could be to cool as cold raw model guidance seems
to be skewing the forecast cooler when there is no significant
cold air advection. This is probably due to the models generating
precip during these periods. Unless it is cloudy and raining all
day, it is hard to see why temps would not continue to be in the
lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. With this in mind have kept
highs in the upper 80s and around 90 rather than the middle 80s.
There are signs of increasing cold air advection by Wednesday as
the upper closed low moves east of the forecast area. With this in
mind, have shown a little more of a cool down for the later part
of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
Gusty winds will be the main feature of the afternoon, with gusts up
to 30 kts seen. After 00Z, southerly winds will die down staying
below 10kts through the night. There looks to be another chance
for LLWS tonight at all sites, but values to meet this criteria
look marginal at the moment so have opted to leave it out of this
TAF issuance. Tomorrow after 16Z, gusty winds return.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
604 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. We
did spread the chance of thunderstorms eastward a bit more quickly
than earlier advertised given radar trends. The severe storms that
moved out of northwest and into north central ND are still within
an axis of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg given surface temperatures in the
90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s F in their inflow region. Very
recent radar trends have shown a decreasing trend to those storms,
though, which is likely because they are outpacing the stronger
deep-layer shear that exists further west. That may marginalize
the severe threat with the batch of storms northwest of Minot as
of 23 UTC. Meanwhile, convection in southwest ND is high-based in
an environment characterized by 40+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads
and weak shear as of late afternoon, so we only expect a gusty
wind threat with that activity for the next few hours.
We are watching storms in MT closely (including one particularly
long-lived supercell approaching Jordan as as of 23 UTC). Simple
extrapolation of that activity brings it to the ND border by mid
evening. If it reaches ND before the boundary layer is able to
cool sufficiently for increasing capping to take hold, then there
could be a more organized severe threat, particularly over west
central and northwest ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
The expectation of severe thunderstorms west through north central
this evening and tonight highlights the short term period.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating just off
of Vancouver Island with a downstream southwest flow into North
Dakota. Shortwaves peeling off from the main low and through the
northern Rockies continue to produce thunderstorms in central
Montana. The upper level low will meander and head into Washington
state Friday before ejecting northeast through southern Canada
over the weekend. This slow movement and trajectory keeps western
and central ND in a favored area for periodic thunderstorms.
The next shortwave to affect western and central ND is seen over
western Montana into central Idaho. An associated surface cold
front will advance from southern and eastern Montana into North
Dakota tonight. Nsharp soundings continue to show high based
thunderstorms around 8kft to 10kft west and north central with
the primary threat of damaging winds. Dewpoints have been dropping
across the west as mixing aloft with drier air ensues. Beach for
example went from a 61f dewpoint to 48f dewpoint. Mixed layer cape
should be decreasing as a result. Dcape values of around 1500 j/kg
across the west late this afternoon and evening indicative of
strong downdraft/damaging wind potential.
Lcl heights will likely be a bit lower across north central ND as
Minot sounding shows dewpoints in the lower 60s holding on through
the evening. May see cloud bases around 5kft with an increased
depth in cape values. The combination of surface-1km shear of
around 25kt, sfc-1km and sfc-3km relative helicity of 189 and
223 meters squared/second squared may provide a brief window of
tornado opportunity. The latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows
the strongest cells moving across north central between 03z-06z
which is coincident with the forecast sounding parameters mentioned
above. Thus, damaging winds, large hail, and a possible tornado
will be monitored north central early tonight. Convection will
taper off from west to east after midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Brief transitory ridging occurs Friday after the passage of
Thursday nights shortwave. Thus dry during the daylight hours
Friday. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday night into
Saturday, with a second shortwave following for Saturday
evening/night. It appears that on Sunday, thunderstorms should be
confined from the Turtle Mountains south into the James River
Valley. Severe thunderstorms possible with each round, but severe
weather is more favored Saturday evening/night along and ahead of
a well defined warm front draped over most of western and central
North Dakota. SPC maintains a large slight risk area.
Continued southwest flow through the middle of next week with
signs of another building ridge across central ND which may
gradually decrease chances for precipitation later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2016
Thunderstorms initially over western and north central ND as of 23
UTC will slowly move eastward this evening, while additional cells
move out of MT and into western ND by mid to late evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will then move across western and central ND in
the 03 to 09 UTC time range. Local MVFR and IFR conditions and
gusty winds are expected with thunderstorms, and some could be
severe with large hail and damaging winds.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS