Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/08/16
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high
pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the
period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high
pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the
period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximatey to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozakrs, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be simliar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 60 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 67 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 59 85 64 87 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 67 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 60 85 63 88 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 61 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 67 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 65 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 63 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 67 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...Brown/228 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z Aviation discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period, with winds
under 10 knots and a few high clouds. Winds will gradually turn
more easterly, primarily after midnight tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
)
UPDATE...
Latest guidance indicates more sufficient boundary layer mixing than
previous runs. Therefore have adjusted temperatures and dewpoints
to reflect such. With weak mid levels winds at the top of the bl,
no wind adjustment is needed. High res NAM and HRRR indicate even
higher temperatures and lower dewpoints, however, with an
overmixing bias, will stray away from that. That said, may be
something to watch.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
A weak cold front is pushing through the region from the north
this morning. Moisture is limited, so no rain is expected.
Satellite is showing some high cirrus clouds, and not much else.
The front will bring another round of dry air, and this will make
it feel comfortable outdoors. This air mass will warm up quickly
during the day, but rapid cooling will occur at night.
A northwest wind flow aloft will be noted through the near term,
but a ridge of high pressure to the west will take over in the
extended period. This will bring a slow warming trend.
As far as temperatures today/Wednesday, readings will be a little
above normal in the afternoon, and a bit below normal after dark.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Warm summertime conditions can be expected through the long term
with high pressure aloft and at the surface. Southerly flow will
bring warm Gulf air into the region and highs are generally expected
to be near or a few degrees above normal. Rain chances will be slim
to none through the end of the work...with the exception of any pop-
up afternoon convection. Rain chances will be come more scattered
nature during the weekend and into the next work week as the ridge
begins to break down.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...Brown
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Sfc high pressure in control this afternoon over northeast Kansas.
Overall cooler temps today with light northerly winds and readings
near 80 degrees. Unfortunately this trend is temporary as the ridge
axis builds eastward while a weak sfc trough develops over the
western high plains. Coupled with an embedded shortwave trough
entering CO per satellite imagery may trigger a few thunderstorms
over western and central Kansas this evening. There is a slight
chance a few of these storms may impact north central KS after
midnight per the latest few runs of the HRRR and the persistence
from the NAM and GFS. Confidence is lacking on the available
moisture with an abundance of dry air throughout the column so will
keep the slight pops at this time. Severe weather is not expected
given the weak wind profiles and elevated instability up to 1000
J/KG.
There may be a few showers lingering into sunrise Wednesday, but
otherwise another sunny and warm afternoon. Sfc pressure gradient
increases with the sfc low centered over eastern CO. Southerly winds
are stronger in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph while warm air
advection boosts temps back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Wednesday night through Friday...Region continues to transition
out of northwesterly flow as the upper ridge begins to amplify
over the Central Plains. Still some indication of a weak wave
moving off the Rockies and generating showers and storms over the
high plains and moving eastward as the night progresses, but not
highly confident these will make it this far east and have kept
rain chances to less than 15 percent in the west. Temperatures
start to climb into the 90s, rising a few degrees from Thursday
into Friday. Dewpoints also start to climb, and overnight lows
approach the 70 degree mark, with the start of a warm and muggy
pattern.
Friday night through Tuesday...Upper ridge is in full swing
extending into the Northern Plains by the weekend. Highs in the
90s and lows near 70 continue. As waves move across the northern
states, may be enough to start to move the ridge east and weaken
by Sunday night and will reintroduce slight rain chances. Front
still progged to drop southward into the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday, with higher rain chances for that forecast period. Could
also mean high temps drop back into the 80s, if front can get this
far southward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with southeasterly winds increasing during the day on Wednesday.
There is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm near KMHK
around sunrise Wednesday morning, but confidence isn`t high enough
to warrant a mention in the TAF.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
The center of a longer wave length upper trough was located across
Ontario, Canada, with a broad upper level ridge across the northwest
US and western Canada.
A shorter wave length upper level trough will dig southeast from
eastern ND, southeast into the mid MS river valley Tonight. The low-
level CAA across the northern and central plains will help to push a
weak surface front southward across the CWA during the mid and late
afternoon hours.
Most numerical models show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front across the northern counties of the CWA
after 2 PM and then redeveloping southward along the surface front
through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Most of the stronger
ascent ahead of the H5 trough will be located across the Midwest but
the southern extent of the H5 trough may provide some additional
lift, though most of the ascent will occur due to surface
convergence ahead of the front. The RAP model only shows a few
isolated showers developing along the NE border during the afternoon
hours and does not forecast any QPF farther south along the surface
front through the afternoon and evening hours. I`ll keep at least a
20 percent chance for thunderstorms across CWA during the afternoon
hours and for the southern counties during the early evening hours.
Surface heating combined with residual moisture ahead of the
surface front will allow MLCAPES to reach 800 to 1400 j/kg. 500mb
northwesterly flow at 30 to 45 KTS across eastern KS will result
in 0-6 KM effective shear of 30 to 40 KTS during the afternoon
hours. Given the above instability and vertical shear parameters,
the environment will become favorable for any isolated
thunderstorms that develops ahead of the front to be strong to
severe. The primary hazards would be hail to the size of quarters
to half dollars and 50 to 60 MPH wind gusts. The storms ahead of
the front across the southern counties of the CWA should weaken
towards sunset.
During the late evening hours the surface cold front will shift
southeast of the CWA and any lingering showers will move southeast
of the CWA. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
Late Tuesday through Thursday, have only made minor changes as the
overall pattern continues to look the same as it has the past
several days. The mean trough over the Eastern CONUS will slowly
lift to the northeast and the mean ridge axis from the west will get
pushed east over the Central Plains as another Pacific system and
trough dig into the western CONUS. This leaves mostly a dry
atmosphere over northeastern Kansas and weak forcing at best. Slight
chances of a weak elevated thunderstorm mainly Wednesday morning
have been kept in the western counties of the forecast area. The
trend has been to decrease POPs heading into Thursday and most
convection staying over portions of the Rockies convectively induced
by daytime heating. Lee trough tries to set up, but is slow to do
so with relatively weak flow pattern over the Rockies into the
Central Plains, so confidence is low at this point for morning
showers and storms on Thursday. Only have very low end chance POPs
and going with a mainly dry forecast.
Into the weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms look at
least a little better into the late Saturday and Sunday time
frames. The overall ridge begins to break down as it advects east
and several weak shortwaves flow over the Rockies. As these kick
out they attempt to develop lee-side lows, but again weak forcing
doesn`t seem to support much development and a fairly strong EML
is likely to be in place with again moisture return in question.
With most of the modified polar jet remaining to the north more
near the US/Canadian border, have not increased POPs more than
low-end slight chance. High temperatures by late week will reach
into the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
There remains mixed signals from the short range models on how
widespread diurnally driven convection might be this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints remain in the lower to mid 50s as winds already
begin shifting to the northwest. So the NAM may be overdoing the
afternoon instability, but the NAM is the driest solution. With
the HRRR showing a better chance to the west, have included a VCSH
for a few hours and left TOP and FOE dry for now. Unless a shower
or storm moves across the terminal, VFR conditions should prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
The center of a longer wave length upper trough was located across
Ontario, Canada, with a broad upper level ridge across the northwest
US and western Canada.
A shorter wave length upper level trough will dig southeast from
eastern ND, southeast into the mid MS river valley Tonight. The low-
level CAA across the northern and central plains will help to push a
weak surface front southward across the CWA during the mid and late
afternoon hours.
Most numerical models show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front across the northern counties of the CWA
after 2 PM and then redeveloping southward along the surface front
through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Most of the stronger
ascent ahead of the H5 trough will be located across the Midwest but
the southern extent of the H5 trough may provide some additional
lift, though most of the ascent will occur due to surface
convergence ahead of the front. The RAP model only shows a few
isolated showers developing along the NE border during the afternoon
hours and does not forecast any QPF farther south along the surface
front through the afternoon and evening hours. I`ll keep at least a
20 percent chance for thunderstorms across CWA during the afternoon
hours and for the southern counties during the early evening hours.
Surface heating combined with residual moisture ahead of the
surface front will allow MLCAPES to reach 800 to 1400 j/kg. 500mb
northwesterly flow at 30 to 45 KTS across eastern KS will result
in 0-6 KM effective shear of 30 to 40 KTS during the afternoon
hours. Given the above instability and vertical shear parameters,
the environment will become favorable for any isolated
thunderstorms that develops ahead of the front to be strong to
severe. The primary hazards would be hail to the size of quarters
to half dollars and 50 to 60 MPH wind gusts. The storms ahead of
the front across the southern counties of the CWA should weaken
towards sunset.
During the late evening hours the surface cold front will shift
southeast of the CWA and any lingering showers will move southeast
of the CWA. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
Late Tuesday through Thursday, have only made minor changes as the
overall pattern continues to look the same as it has the past
several days. The mean trough over the Eastern CONUS will slowly
lift to the northeast and the mean ridge axis from the west will get
pushed east over the Central Plains as another Pacific system and
trough dig into the western CONUS. This leaves mostly a dry
atmosphere over northeastern Kansas and weak forcing at best. Slight
chances of a weak elevated thunderstorm mainly Wednesday morning
have been kept in the western counties of the forecast area. The
trend has been to decrease POPs heading into Thursday and most
convection staying over portions of the Rockies convectively induced
by daytime heating. Lee trough tries to set up, but is slow to do
so with relatively weak flow pattern over the Rockies into the
Central Plains, so confidence is low at this point for morning
showers and storms on Thursday. Only have very low end chance POPs
and going with a mainly dry forecast.
Into the weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms look at
least a little better into the late Saturday and Sunday time
frames. The overall ridge begins to break down as it advects east
and several weak shortwaves flow over the Rockies. As these kick
out they attempt to develop lee-side lows, but again weak forcing
doesn`t seem to support much development and a fairly strong EML
is likely to be in place with again moisture return in question.
With most of the modified polar jet remaining to the north more
near the US/Canadian border, have not increased POPs more than
low-end slight chance. High temperatures by late week will reach
into the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
A weak front will move southward across the terminals late this
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop around
the terminals after 21Z. This evening the front will push south
of the terminals bringing an end to the slight thunderstorm
chance. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 84 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 92 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 86 63 89 66 / 0 0 10 0
Hot Springs AR 92 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 91 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 90 64 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 92 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 85 63 88 66 / 0 0 10 0
Newport AR 84 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 91 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 89 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 87 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 90 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...51 / Long Term...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period...except some
MVFR at ADF with fog. SFC high pressure will drop SE...just east
of the state through the period...with winds transitioning to the
east and SE by Wed afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high
pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the
period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed
afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period...except some
MVFR at ADF with fog. SFC high pressure will drop SE...just east
of the state through the period...with winds transitioning to the
east and SE by Wed afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
)
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high
pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the
period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed
afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high
pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the
period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high
pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the
period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed
afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night
Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified
ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold"
front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot
of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below
1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this
front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient
insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result,
temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of
Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed
boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast
Arkansas, which lies closer in proximatey to the large scale
thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozakrs, will stay
closer to average.
Conditions will be simliar on Wednesday as the low and mid level
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides
eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a
southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a
result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be
possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range
and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of
precipitation in the area for the period.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the
weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday
and into next week.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and
into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks
down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and
develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does
exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of
convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much
of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due
to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 60 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 67 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 59 85 64 87 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs AR 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 67 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 60 85 63 88 / 0 0 10 10
Newport AR 61 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 67 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 65 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 63 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 67 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...Brown/228 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z Aviation discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period, with winds
under 10 knots and a few high clouds. Winds will gradually turn
more easterly, primarily after midnight tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
)
UPDATE...
Latest guidance indicates more sufficient boundary layer mixing than
previous runs. Therefore have adjusted temperatures and dewpoints
to reflect such. With weak mid levels winds at the top of the bl,
no wind adjustment is needed. High res NAM and HRRR indicate even
higher temperatures and lower dewpoints, however, with an
overmixing bias, will stray away from that. That said, may be
something to watch.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
A weak cold front is pushing through the region from the north
this morning. Moisture is limited, so no rain is expected.
Satellite is showing some high cirrus clouds, and not much else.
The front will bring another round of dry air, and this will make
it feel comfortable outdoors. This air mass will warm up quickly
during the day, but rapid cooling will occur at night.
A northwest wind flow aloft will be noted through the near term,
but a ridge of high pressure to the west will take over in the
extended period. This will bring a slow warming trend.
As far as temperatures today/Wednesday, readings will be a little
above normal in the afternoon, and a bit below normal after dark.
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Warm summertime conditions can be expected through the long term
with high pressure aloft and at the surface. Southerly flow will
bring warm Gulf air into the region and highs are generally expected
to be near or a few degrees above normal. Rain chances will be slim
to none through the end of the work...with the exception of any pop-
up afternoon convection. Rain chances will be come more scattered
nature during the weekend and into the next work week as the ridge
begins to break down.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...Brown
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Sfc high pressure in control this afternoon over northeast Kansas.
Overall cooler temps today with light northerly winds and readings
near 80 degrees. Unfortunately this trend is temporary as the ridge
axis builds eastward while a weak sfc trough develops over the
western high plains. Coupled with an embedded shortwave trough
entering CO per satellite imagery may trigger a few thunderstorms
over western and central Kansas this evening. There is a slight
chance a few of these storms may impact north central KS after
midnight per the latest few runs of the HRRR and the persistence
from the NAM and GFS. Confidence is lacking on the available
moisture with an abundance of dry air throughout the column so will
keep the slight pops at this time. Severe weather is not expected
given the weak wind profiles and elevated instability up to 1000
J/KG.
There may be a few showers lingering into sunrise Wednesday, but
otherwise another sunny and warm afternoon. Sfc pressure gradient
increases with the sfc low centered over eastern CO. Southerly winds
are stronger in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph while warm air
advection boosts temps back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
Wednesday night through Friday...Region continues to transition
out of northwesterly flow as the upper ridge begins to amplify
over the Central Plains. Still some indication of a weak wave
moving off the Rockies and generating showers and storms over the
high plains and moving eastward as the night progresses, but not
highly confident these will make it this far east and have kept
rain chances to less than 15 percent in the west. Temperatures
start to climb into the 90s, rising a few degrees from Thursday
into Friday. Dewpoints also start to climb, and overnight lows
approach the 70 degree mark, with the start of a warm and muggy
pattern.
Friday night through Tuesday...Upper ridge is in full swing
extending into the Northern Plains by the weekend. Highs in the
90s and lows near 70 continue. As waves move across the northern
states, may be enough to start to move the ridge east and weaken
by Sunday night and will reintroduce slight rain chances. Front
still progged to drop southward into the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday, with higher rain chances for that forecast period. Could
also mean high temps drop back into the 80s, if front can get this
far southward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with southeasterly winds increasing during the day on Wednesday.
Some models are showing the potential for some low-level wind
shear concerns by late Wednesday night, so we will need to
continue to monitor that potential.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
AVIATION...
High pressure will continue over the area. VFR conditions will
continue through the period. Winds will be light and become east.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
64
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period. High pressure
has shifted east of the area...with some southerly flow returning.
As a result...moisture levels will be increasing.
However...chances for precip will remain low through this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday night
Not much to talk about in the short term as the state will remain
high and dry...with dry weather, warm temperatures, and mostly
clear skies. Expect highs to be in the mid 80s to low 90s this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon...and lows will be in the 60s.
High pressure will begin to slide off to the northeast of the
state tonight which will allow a very meager return flow pattern
to creep back into Arkansas. Thursday will slightly more humid as
a result.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm Friday and
over much of the weekend. The chance of rain is back in the
forecast mainly Monday through Wednesday.
The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with
dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as
the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm
temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the
weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week,
the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow
back to the region that will increase moisture levels. Rain chances
will start Sunday and Tuesday and mainly be diurnally driven in the
heat of the afternoon to early evening. Then Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high pressure ridge breaks down, with some shortwave
energy moving east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas.
Models do have a frontal boundary approaching the region late
Wednesday to Thursday and models do forecast this to sag into
Arkansas. Uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing,
location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday
to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 63 88 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
Newport AR 65 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...64 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
With high pressure in the region, VFR flight categories are
expected through the TAF period. The one caveat may be some
reduced visibility at KADF due to local moisture sources. With
another day of sun/drying in the books today though, will forego
including that in the 18z TAF package at this time though.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
UPDATE...
Issuing a quick morning update to account for expected afternoon
temperature trends. The HRRR model performed admirably yesterday,
showing high temperatures climbing into the low 90s across much of
the southern half of the state yesterday and being considerably
warmer than most other available guidance. With similar synoptic
and mesoscale conditions today, and 24hr temperature changes near
zero in most places, will go with a persistence forecast for
today. Blended yesterday`s observed high temperatures with a mix
of the 14z HRRR and other MOS guidance to come up with similar
highs for today. The most notable increases were in the north and
northeast where mid 80s are expected. Elsewhere low 90s are
expected once again.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
A large area of high pressure is over the western two thirds of the
country with an upper trough over the eastern third. The upper ridge
will spread eastward through the period and will encompass much of
the country by Thursday night.
With high pressure in control...warm and dry weather will continue
through the period. No rainfall is expected through Thursday night.
Temperatures will continue in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs and
in the lower to mid 60s for lows.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Rather benign wx pattern wl prevail acrs the FA for late this week
and thru much of the weekend. The upr lvl flow wl be stagnant as an
upr rdg rmns in place ovr the mid section of the nation. At the
sfc...a rdg wl rmn situated acrs AR...allowing for a gradual uptick
in low lvl rh late in the weekend. As a result...could see widely
sctd mainly diurnally driven convection by Sun aftn.
Heading into next week...a weakness wl dvlp in the upper lvls acrs
the Mid-South. The aforementioned sfc rdg wl also breakdown...which
wl allow low lvl moisture to cont incrsg. This trend...along with a
fntl bndry apchg NERN AR...wl lead to sctd convection acrs the FA.
Temps wl rmn at abv normal lvls ovr the weekend...with a gradual
dcrs in daytime highs by Tue due to more clouds/rain chcs.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
458 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 458 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Quick update to add a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms to far north central ND centered on Rolla for the
late afternoon and early evening. That`s in respect to showers
and weak thunderstorms moving out of southwest Manitoba and into
far northern ND just before 22 UTC. Surface dewpoints range from
the mid 40s to the lower 50s F ahead of that activity, yielding
SBCAPE less than 500 J/kg per the SPC mesoscale analysis, so we
don`t expect much if any strength to that activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Model soundings have a good cap in place across the region and
convection has been slow to organize. A weak shortwave trough is
undercutting the h500 ridge over the northern plains Wednesday
afternoon. This feature is supporting some organized convection
across northeast South Dakota bit not in North Dakota. Have
removed the chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight other than the far north central where a weak frontal
boundary has lingered and may maintain weak showers for the
evening.
Tonight low level profiles suggested some patchy fog is possible
in the James river valley and added patchy fog there after
midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The extended forecast will focus on thunderstorms and warm
temperatures. As the h500 ridge moves over the northern plains
Thursday, very warm temperatures are expected across west and
central North Dakota. By Thursday afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form along a weak cold front moving into western North
Dakota that will finally break the cap. While instability is
sufficient the shear is marginal. It is expected thunderstorms
have a marginal threat to become severe Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.
Friday looks generally dry in the wake of the cold front which
should limit convection to the james river valley and ending by
afternoon.
Eventually this front will end up as an east-west boundary across
northern South Dakota on Saturday. This will bring somewhat cooler
air into the north, while upper 80s to lower 90s reside across
the south. Southeast return wind flow will increase moisture
across the region during the day Saturday. This will set up a
better chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday night
as low pressure deepens across southwest North Dakota. The
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table still shows precipitable
water in the climatological 99th percentile across the northwest
part of the state. Still too uncertain to forecast at this time
but this pattern suggests at least a possibility of heavy rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Terminals will have vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr, except KJMS, where a
brief period of MVFR vsbys in mist will occur between 09z and 14z
Thursday. Low clouds at KJMS look to remain scattered at this
time.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Model soundings have a good cap in place across the region and
convection has been slow to organize. A weak shortwave trough is
undercutting the h500 ridge over the northern plains Wednesday
afternoon. This feature is supporting some organized convection
across northeast South Dakota bit not in North Dakota. Have
removed the chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight other than the far north central where a weak frontal
boundary has lingered and may maintain weak showers for the
evening.
Tonight low level profiles suggested some patchy fog is possible
in the James river valley and added patchy fog there after
midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The extended forecast will focus on thunderstorms and warm
temperatures. As the h500 ridge moves over the northern plains
Thursday, very warm temperatures are expected across west and
central North Dakota. By Thursday afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form along a weak cold front moving into western North
Dakota that will finally break the cap. While instability is
sufficient the shear is marginal. It is expected thunderstorms
have a marginal threat to become severe Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.
Friday looks generally dry in the wake of the cold front which
should limit convection to the james river valley and ending by
afternoon.
Eventually this front will end up as an east-west boundary across
northern South Dakota on Saturday. This will bring somewhat cooler
air into the north, while upper 80s to lower 90s reside across
the south. Southeast return wind flow will increase moisture
across the region during the day Saturday. This will set up a
better chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday night
as low pressure deepens across southwest North Dakota. The
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table still shows precipitable
water in the climatological 99th percentile across the northwest
part of the state. Still too uncertain to forecast at this time
but this pattern suggests at least a possibility of heavy rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Terminals will have vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr, except KJMS, where a
brief period of MVFR vsbys in mist will occur between 09z and 14z
Thursday. Low clouds at KJMS look to remain scattered at this
time.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Convective chances and strength will be the main challenge
throughout the period.
Water vapor loop shows several shortwave troughs approaching the
area, one coming through southern Canada and another digging from
southwestern ND into SD. A few showers have been approaching the
far northern counties from the first shortwave, but have not done
much for us except sprinkles at this point. The more southern
shortwave has not done much except some storms in northeastern SD
along the leading edge of mid level warm advection. There has been
some most unstable CAPE, but the surface based instability is
still well south over the SD/Neb border with the surface low.
Short range models have some showers and storms festering just to
the south of the CWA tonight, and this seems reasonable at this
point. Will continue to keep some low POPs in our far north and
far south, but the rest of the region should be fairly quiet
overnight with lows dropping into the 50s and low 60s.
Upper ridging will build into the forecast area during the day on
Thursday, but there will be a fairly significant shortwave coming
over the top of the ridge Thursday night. There should be a lot of
warm air advection Thursday, and models are all in good agreement
with temps tomorrow afternoon reaching the upper 80s and even low
90s, which fits upstream obs. The NAM also brings in some dew
points in the upper 60s into the far southern CWA which yields
some CAPE values near 4000 J/kg. However, think the NAM`s moisture
advection is a bit overdone and CAPE values are a bit high, not to
mention there should be a stout capping inversion for much of the
day. This will break down as the shortwave starts to come over the
ridge Thursday night. Think that storms will be fairly late, but
even if the NAM MUCAPE values verify half of what they are
showing, there should be plenty of instability and around 40 kts
deep layer bulk shear to work with for some early morning severe
late Thursday night at least across the western CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Friday and Saturday...Convection could be ongoing Friday morning
as a shortwave moves through and a surface trough/cold front
pushes into the central CWA. Think the cool air advection will
not be too impressive and will allow most of the CWA to see temps
in the mid 80s to low 90s. The surface boundary should be over the
southeastern counties by Friday afternoon, and some redevelopment
will be possible. Deep layer shear is less impressive so not
certain how strong storms will be in our area, but will continue
to keep some POPs in our southeastern counties through Friday
afternoon and evening. Saturday should be more quiet and a few
degrees cooler with surface high pressure to our northeast.
Saturday night through Wednesday...12z ECMWF has turned faster than
the corresponding GFS in bringing in SW flow and associated
convection. Both of these would mean the potential for an
overnight event into the day Sunday. There should be a break at
some point Monday into Tuesday. Here is where these models diverge
though...with the GFS offering a more zonal drier flow for
Wednesday while the ECMWF digs sharper trough into the Central
Plains. The blend arrives at a (barely) slight chc solution. This
regime will feature above average temperatures with daytime highs
rising a bit over 80 each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
High to eventually mid level clouds/cigs from this aftn through
Thurs. A few isolated to scattered tstms could make a run toward
KFAR overnight...staying consistent with prev fcst and leaving out
of TAF at this time. Otherwise SSE winds aob 10kts.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...WJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Made a few tweaks to clouds and temperatures as cirrus clouds
continue to diminish across our central counties but some mid
level clouds have been approaching both our southwest and far
northern borders. Temps have already reached the upper 70s in the
far southwest some bumped up temps a bit from what the short blend
gives us.
UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
No changes for the morning update.
UPDATE Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Freshened up cloud cover to best fit trends as high clouds
continue streaming in from the north producing partly sunny skies
this morning. Otherwise, no changes made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The forecast for this period starts off with northwest flow aloft
and high clouds streaming in from Canada. The filtered sun will
get temps up into the low 70s northeast to low 80s southwest
today. A weak upper wave may bring a few showers or thunderstorms
into the north late tonight. Further south, elevated thunderstorms
may exist late in the night in the vicinity of a warm front close
to the SD border. Models are trending away from the northern
activity and toward the southern activity. May need to increase
pops in the south in the future if models continue with trends.
On Thursday, dew points increase to the 60s, but a stout cap will
still remain in place keeping surface-based convection at bay.
Temps will still climb into the 80s although there may be some low
clouds in the area early in the day as indicated by 850 mb RH.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The better chance for thunderstorms will come late Thursday night
and Friday as a short wave and weak surface cold front move through
the area. A chance for severe storms will exist late in the night
Thursday night and into Friday with this system as MUCAPES will be
running 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear above 30 kts. The GFS
has the front and best upper support well into MN by 21Z. The NAM
lags a bit behind the GFS, but still is further east than previous
runs. Also, morning activity will likely play a role in where
convection fires later in the day. Still, severe storms will be
possible Friday morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect the
support to be mainly east of the area by the evening hours and
convective threat winding down by then.
Saturday-Tuesday...00z ECMWF and 00z GFS in rather good agreement
with synoptic features. A brief break in active weather on
Saturday before southwest flow aloft develops for Sunday into
early next week...bringing another active period. Potential exists
for strong thunderstorms...although details still uncertain.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal values most periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
High to eventually mid level clouds/cigs from this aftn through
Thurs. A few isolated to scattered tstms could make a run toward
KFAR overnight...staying consistent with prev fcst and leaving out
of TAF at this time. Otherwise SSE winds aob 10kts.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/TG
AVIATION...WJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1202 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Weak convection continues to diminish and lightning network has
shown no strikes within the last hour and a half. Based on these
trends have removed the mention of thunder in the forecast for
the remainder of the afternoon. Raised high temperatures a
degree.
UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Regional radar loops and the Bowman radar show the convection is
generally trending down. Current pops have this trend already and
blended the latest trend to the current pop forecast ending the
precipitation chances around 1 pm CDT.
UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Small area of showers/thunderstorms continues to scurry to the
east across southeast/east-central Montana. This has been cycling
some over the past few hours as earlier it appeared to dissipate,
but has seemed to surge again over the past few radar scans.
Latest HRRR tries to bring the system into the area early this
morning, so have adjusted precipitation chances a bit to account
for this. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
The main concern for this short term period will be the chance
for thunderstorm development as well as the possibility of severe
weather Thursday late afternoon and night.
Currently...a broad upper level ridge was well established over the
Rockies and front range with low pressure over eastern North
America. A shortwave trough with several vort impulses moving
through the ridge was associated with scattered clusters of
convection over southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Wyoming. At the
surface, broad low pressure was along the Rockies and front range
associated with the embedded upper level shortwaves.
Early this morning the upper level shortwave over Montana is
forecast to move into western North Dakota around daybreak and move
east/southeast across the state today. The latest iterations of
short term high res models indicate that the convection should hold
together as it moves into North Dakota. These high based showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to be mainly above the building
thermal cap. As the shortwave moves east into central North Dakota
late this morning/noon the building thermal ridge will likely
suppress/weaken further the showers resulting in mid and high level
clouds moving east across the state. There is increasing CAPE this
afternoon in the southwest and south central...but thinking the
thermal cap will inhibit lift/convection. The cap may weaken in the
evening in the far southwest where there is growing instability and
upper level shortwave energy across northwestern South Dakota.
The building thermal cap will become more prominent on Thursday
associated with the apex of the upper level ridge moving into the
Dakotas. Looking at high temperatures in the low to mid 90s over
western and much of central North Dakota. Low level moisture
maintain or increase with forecast dewpoints into the mid and upper
60s in central North Dakota which will increase the instability with
time. During the daytime Thursday shortwave energy moves northeast
across Montana on the west side of the upper level ridge. A surface
frontal boundary will also move east across Montana on Thursday.
These features are progged to enter western North Dakota late
afternoon Thursday...then move east across the state Thursday night.
This scenario will set up better chances for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms. Strong instability along and ahead of the front,
coupled with strong 0-6km shear along and behind the front will
provide the potential for strong - possibly severe - thunderstorms.
The latest SPC outlook indicates a marginal chance for severe storms
for most of western and central North Dakota.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Temperatures on Friday will be a tad bit cooler over western and
northern locations behind a passing front, though readings will
still be well above average. Mainly dry weather expected through
the day, with thunderstorm chances returning mainly to the
northwest overnight as a modest low level jet develops.
Surface low deepens over southeast Montana on Saturday as ridge
axis pushes easterly with a variety of short waves lifting through
southwest flow. This will keep thunderstorm chances going through
the day, primarily over the west. Low level jet substantially
increases overnight bringing increased chances for thunderstorms,
particularly over northern locations where stronger instability is
noted. Will have to keep an eye on how this evolves as some severe
storms will be possible.
Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through Sunday with well
above average temperatures. A cold front is expected to sweep
through the area Sunday night into Monday bringing a return
towards normal temperatures. Drier with near to slightly above
average temperatures expected by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2016
Terminals will have vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr, except KJMS, where a
brief period of MVFR vsbys in mist will occur between 09z and 14z
Thursday. Low clouds at KJMS look to remain scattered at this
time.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA