Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/07/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
837 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low pressure system moving across California and into the Great Basin, will spread cooling inland through Monday. It will be slightly warmer again midweek, then cooler into next weekend as a larger low pressure trough develops over the West. Areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog will spread farther into the valleys Monday into Tuesday...then again for the latter part of the week with slow afternoon clearing near the beaches. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Marine clouds were widespread offshore and extended up to 25 miles inland. Patchy dense fog was occurring near the inland extent of the cloud layer and over the higher coastal terrain. The 12Z Miramar sounding had a 12.5 degree C inversion based near 1475 feet MSL. This was about 400 feet higher than yesterday. The surface pressure gradients showed solid onshore trends this morning at 4-7 MBS KSAN- Deserts and winds were responding in the wind-prone mtn/desert areas with peak westerly gusts 25 to 40 mph. Based on the sounding and the synoptic trends, today should be cooler all areas, although still quite hot in the deserts. Clearing will be slower today, and may be incomplete along the immediate coast due to the deeper cloud layer and onshore trends. Look for the marine layer to deepen, with associated low clouds extending even farther inland tonight into Monday morning, with less fog over coastal areas. From previous discussion... A weak low pressure system moving inland through California will bring a cooling trend into Monday with high temperatures cooling to near average. Weak high pressure will bring around 5 degrees of inland warming for Tuesday and Wednesday...then slow cooling into next weekend with inland high temperatures falling below average for Friday and Saturday. The marine layer will deepen into Monday with low clouds and patchy fog extending into the western valleys this morning...and into the far inland valleys for Monday into Tuesday. A slightly shallower marine layer for Wednesday...then gradually deeper into next weekend with night and morning low clouds and patchy fog extending into the far inland valleys. Slow afternoon clearing will continue at some beaches. The onshore flow will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts each late afternoon through late evening. && .AVIATION... 051530Z...Coast/Valleys...Widespread low clouds with bases 600-900 ft MSL still extends about 15 mi inland this morning. Local vis 1- 3SM in fog continues over higher coastal terrain. Expect clearing inland between 16Z and 18Z...and around 20Z along the coast. Little, if any, clearing is expected at the beaches. Stratus with bases around 800-1200 ft will move into the coastal airports after 02Z Mon...spreading about 20 mi inland overnight. Mountains/Deserts...SCT clouds at or above 15000 ft MSL with unrestricted visibility through Monday. && .MARINE... 830 AM...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JAD AVIATION/MARINE...PG
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 500 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A weak upper low moving across northern California will result in continued cooling today. A gradual cooling trend is then forecast to continue for much of the week as an upper trough over the Eastern Pacific slowly approaches the West Coast. Except for occasional patchy drizzle near the coast, precipitation is not expected through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...as of 3:50 AM PDT Sunday...A weak upper low moving inland across Northern California has been producing thunderstorms across the mountains of Northeast California overnight. This low`s primary impact on our weather has been to increase the depth of the marine layer and bring about cooling. Data from the Fort Ord profiler indicate the marine layer depth has increased to about 1500 feet, deep enough for low clouds to develop into the coastal valleys and around San Francisco Bay overnight. The cooling trend that got underway yesterday will continue today. The airmass above the marine layer remains quite warm and so those locations still isolated from the marine air influence (i.e., valleys well inland and the hills above 1500 feet) will remain quite warm today. All other locations will be significantly cooler than they were on Friday. The upper low will move east and over Nevada by tonight and weak shortwave ridging will develop in its wake over California by late Monday...resulting in slight warming of the airmass aloft by then. However, temperatures at the surface are expected to continue to trend downward in most areas on Monday and Tuesday as onshore flow gradually increases. By midweek a longwave trough over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast, which will result in further cooling during the second half of the week. Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast temperatures to drop below normal in most areas by midweek and then remain on the cool side of normal through the end of the week. The upper trough that will approach later in the week is not expected to generate any precipitation over our area, except perhaps for some patchy night and morning coastal drizzle from a deep marine layer. && .AVIATION...as of 5:00 AM PDT Sunday...An upper level low is moving northeast across the North Bay counties this morning. This has deepened the marine layer to near 2000 feet and brought stratus into the SFO Bay Area. Southerly flow above the boundary layer will help to clear the stratus out by 17z at SFO and 18z around the bay. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR/IFR conditions through 17z. SFO Bridge Approach...MVFR/IFR conditions not clearing out completely until 18z. Monterey Bay Terminals....Stratus extends into the Salinas Valley this morning. IFR conditions not clearing until after 18z. && .MARINE...as of 2:38 AM PDT Sunday...A thermal low over the desert southwest will keep light to moderate northwest winds through thursday. these generally light winds will in turn yield gentle seas. increasing northerly winds and seas are anticipated for the second half of the week as an upper level trough approaches the pacific northwest. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: W Pi MARINE: W Pi Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Eureka CA 449 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorm are expected to develop today. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase overnight tonight and monday. Precipitation chances will diminish by the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tonight) Forecast challenges have increased for today. Over the past week, the models remained in good agreement regarding our convective potential, as both the NAM and GFS remained very consistent in their forecasts/instability parameters. That has all changes this morning. This may be in part due to the closed mid-level low tracking farther north than what was forecast even yesterday. Originally, this low was expected to track on a San Francisco to Reno line. However, this morning`s water vapor imagery shows it tracking towards Ukiah as of 3 AM, with it expected to reside just north of Reno by tomorrow night. This is also a slightly slower pace than forecast over the past few days. As the system tracks slightly further north, so does the better mid- level lapse rates. This in turn has an effect of the forecast instability, and it`s here where the models are now at odds with one another. The NAM still shows robust instability, with MUCAPEs over 3000 J/kg across the interior, north of Ukiah. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps any negative lifted indices and MUCAPES of 1000 J/kg or better near the Trinity Alps. However, the NAM seems to be doing a slightly better job with its 700-500mb lapse rates based on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Taking a look at the current surface observations across the interior, the GFS is too dry and the NAM is too wet. This is what makes today`s forecast more of a challenge. The general model consensus indicates cloud cover may be less in coverage than what was thought yesterday, which would allow more instability to develop. Given the increase in model disagreement, the forecast wasn`t changed much, aside from some minor areal changes to the thunderstorm mention in the zones. Splitting the difference with the instability fields seems like a good first guess for now, which places locations north and east of a Ferndale to Covelo line "most in play" for any potential thunderstorm development, some of which could be strong severe across the interior. Revisions to today`s forecast may need to be made once visible satellite imagery and afternoon heating helps define where the best potential for this will occur. .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Our storm system will continue its slow eastward trek during the next couple of days. Moisture will remain plentiful during the day Monday, with disturbances aloft rotating around the low bringing bursts of ascent and better lapse rates aloft. Both the GFS and NAM show extreme instability, with a much better convective signal in the model precipitation fields. If all this was to verify, strong to severe thunderstorm chances increase across the interior. Yet, given the week-long consistency in their forecasts before tonight, one can`t help but feel like the mouse chasing the cheese. It`s only one data set that was drastically different tonight, so we`ll stay the course with our previous thinking/forecasts. Thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday near the Trinity Alps, but no strong convection is expected. Our rainfall chances will decrease for most of Northwestern California from mid-week on, with any precipitation chances remaining near the Trinity Alps and portions of Del Norte County, as these locations will be closer to better dynamics aloft, associated with an incoming trough, located across the Pacific Northwest. Tempertures will remain near seasonal values before cooling slightly towards the end of the week. /PD && .AVIATION...Interesting airmass structure this morning with weak onshore flow at the surface and weak offshore flow aloft. At the coast a blanket of ifr type fog is enveloping the coastal terminals while higher convective clouds move from east to west aloft. Expect the fog and low clouds to linger through the mid to late morning hours before lifting and burning off. Mid to higher clouds will continue to filter the skies above as an upper level low impacts the region. Some isolated thunderstorms have been observed across the interior early this morning and may float westward over the coast later this morning. Interior sites will continue to be vfr however anticipate some more thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and tonight...thus the possibility of heavy showers or gusty winds exist over the interior air terminals. jt && .MARINE...Ridging offshore coupled with a thermal trough over the California interior will maintain light to moderate northerly winds over the waters through the weekend. Northerly winds will increase tonight and Monday. Winds may reach 20-25 kt on Monday in the outer waters and small craft advisories will be necessary. Short period N- NW seas will also increase in response to the winds offshore. Current indications are for steep seas to reach 9-11 ft in the outer waters and 7-8 ft inside 10nm. Wave periods will continue to be mixed on Monday, though most of the energy will likely be centered near the shorter periods. Thus expect wave steepness to increase on Monday and advisories may be necessary inside 10nm. 12z spectral models, the North American Mesoscale model as well as the GFS ensemble members were in decent agreement with winds shifting around to the south on Tuesday as a low spins up offshore. Maintained the forecast to indicate southerly winds whipping around Cape Mendocino on Tuesday. Going into Wed and Thu, winds look fairly light with relatively low seas. The models have not been doing great that far out, so confidence is only average at this time. djb/jt && .FIRE WEATHER...An upper level impulse centered over nw ca has initiated the first round of convective activity early this morning. (see additional tstorm discussion above) A handful of strikes have been observed over the Modoc...Burney Basin and just south of Mount Shasta. A couple of strikes were also observed over NE Trinity County. The band of thunderstorms should continue through the early morning hours and may even be enhanced before diminishing later this morning. Storm motion is out of the southeast so any of these storms that hold together may continue to drift over the interior zones and may even reach the coast. Skies should be mostly cloudy with mid and high clouds from these storms hanging around through early afternoon. Then expecting skies to clear a bit in the late afternoon which may promote another round of thunderstorms late in the day and overnight tonight. Increasing mid and upper level moisture should help these storms become more on the wet side with possible areas of heavy showers or even some nickle size hail. TONKIN && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA Follow us on facebook and twitter at: http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 448 AM MST SUN JUN 5 2016 .UPDATE...updated aviation and fire weather discussions... && .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure aloft will persist over the region today leading to very hot afternoon high temperatures with records expected in many lower desert locales. Excessive heat will continue across south-central Arizona Monday with slight cooling over southeast California and southwest Arizona. A gradual cooling trend is expected to develop during the early to middle portion of the week as a Pacific low pressure system moves into the western states north of Arizona, with temperatures likely to drop to near normal values by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... A strong upper level anticyclone remained firmly in place across the desert southwest early this morning; latest plot data indicated that 500mb heights reached 595dm across central and western portions of AZ as well as far southeast CA. Under sunny skies yesterday, widespread high temperatures over the lower deserts ranged between 113 and 116 degrees with records set in number of locations. Very little change is expected today as the upper high will remain firmly in place, with little change expected in the boundary layer; 850mb temps will stay above 30C over the lower AZ deserts and above 32C over portions of south central AZ. Current NAEFS Percentiles data from the Ensemble Situational Awareness Table call for 850bm temps in excess of the 99th percentile over most of the lower deserts, and at 700mb the temps reach or exceed maximum values based on current climatology. Thus the very hot airmass will stay entrenched over the area today and we can expect another day of record breaking high temperatures over many of the lower hotter deserts. Phoenix should reach to 114 degrees and this would break the old record of 112 degrees set in 1990. Model guidance including GEFS ensemble output continue to call for a a weak upper low to migrate inland over central CA tonight and then move inland into Nevada and northern AZ on Monday. This low initially will lower 500mb heights over the central deserts down around 588dm but the boundary layer will remain hot with 850mb temps over the south central deserts still in excess of 31C. We will keep the Excessive Heat Warning going through 8pm Monday for all of the south central desert zones, and based on current HIL data, the warning will remain in effect for the higher terrain of southern Gila County as well. Temperatures over the southwest deserts and far SE California should drop to 110 or below and fall slightly below heat warning criteria on Monday. On Tuesday, operational runs from the GFS and ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance call for the weak low to slowly slide east across Arizona as an open wave, ushering in slightly cooler air to the lower deserts which will allow the deserts to mostly fall below 110 degrees and below heat warning thresholds. As such the Excessive Heat Warning will no longer be in effect. The passing low will be very dry with just a few high clouds present for continued mostly sunny skies. Wednesday through Saturday...Operational runs from both the GFS and ECMWF both call for a progressive upper level trof to gradually approach the west coast, bringing generally dry southwest flow aloft to the area and ushering in a gradual cooling trend with time. NAEFS and GEFS spaghetti ensemble members do become rather chaotic over time but the preponderance of the members agree with the idea of the large trof approaching, and by the start of the weekend it will be moving inland and into the desert southwest. By Friday, most of the lower deserts should see high temperatures running at or below 105 degrees and starting to approach seasonal normals. There is one wrinkle with this forecast situation; as the trof approaches southerly low level flow will advect low/mid level moisture northward and into the eastern mountains. There will be modest instability and CAPE developing mainly east of Globe, sufficient to support a slight chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east of Phoenix Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. We have raised POPs into the slight chance category for AZZ024 for that time period with the main focus for convection to be east of Globe. Confidence in the potential for convection east of Phoenix remains moderate at this time. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Strong high pressure and very hot conditions to continue into Monday. Skies to remain mostly clear under the dry conditions. Winds to follow diurnal patterns with some afternoon gustiness likely. Winds will increase across southeast California this evening with westerly gusts up to 25 kts at KIPL. Overall, limited to no aviation impacts through Monday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday... As very strong high ridging starts to weaken, temperatures will gradually cool through the period. On Tuesday temperatures will range from 100 to 108, falling into the 96-103 range by Saturday. Generally breezy southwesterly winds can be expected each afternoon, however winds will be stronger Thursday afternoon and evening with gusts up to 15 to 25 mph. These gusty winds, in combination with low minimum humidity values, will allow conditions to flirt with critical thresholds, primarily west of Phoenix on Thursday. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair throughout the period, offering little relief to any fire suppression operations. Increasing moisture late in the week will also bring a slight chance of thunderstorms across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona which may include some dry lightning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures listed below: Date Phoenix Yuma ---- --------- ------ June 5 112 in 1990 115 in 1957 June 6 110 in 2013 114 in 1928 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ022>024-027- 028. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ020- 021-025-026. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ031>033. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...Kuhlman CLIMATE...MO FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez/Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1029 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot weather through Monday, with slight cooling afterwards. Scattered thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday...mainly over the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the past hour across the Sierra north of interstate 80. Activity should continue over this area and spread into Shasta county through the night as advertised by short term models. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies and generally light winds. Current forecast handles this scenario well and no evening update will be needed. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A thick layer of high clouds over the area has been keeping temperatures cooler today. Valley highs should mostly end up being between 95 and 100. Marine layer along the coast while still shallow is showing signs of deepening. While this will not help us today we should start to see some breeze through the delta tonight that will help continue the cooling trend that is starting today. GFS and NAM indicate showers and possible thunderstorms forming this evening and continuing through the night and again on Sunday. The HRRR indicates the activity will be delayed until late evening. It starts the activity over Plumas County and spreads it northward into Shasta County around midnight. The center of the low moves over the interior by Sunday morning. As the low continues to move closer to the coast this evening we should see the high clouds move northward. Areas that clear over the mountains will likely have the best chances this evening for any activity to occur and mainly south of I-80. The low should bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Sunday. The main focus continues to be over the mountains with the GFS indicating some activity might make it into the far north end of the valley late tonight and Sunday. As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than late tonight and Sunday. A better marine layer is expected along the coast with delta breezes that will keep area temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with only the well inland areas topping out at around 100 degrees through Monday. Greater cooling is expected Tuesday as a deep trough of low pressure develops off the coast and replaces the high pressure ridge over the area with cyclonic flow. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday) Forecast models appear to be in decent agreement to an upper level low pressure system that will slide southward from the northern Pacific Ocean Thursday through next weekend. There are slightly different timings among the forecast models, however the forecast trend is towards cooler high temperatures for the valley in the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of next week. There are also chances for thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the northern mountains. The main lift with the upper level system will occur in the Pacific northwest towards the end of next week, so most of the storm activity will remain north of the forecast area. Surprisingly however, forecast models are not hinting at more chances for precipitation for northern portions of the valley even with a passage of the trough. The GFS forecast is the most aggressive at this time with surface precipitation, but other forecasts keep the northern valley dry. For now, the forecast will continue with the trend towards a dry forecast. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may increase for the northern mountains and northern valley with future model runs. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance will bring increased high level cloud cover for the valley through tonight. Clearing should begin towards late Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon. Light wind shifts are expected for the terminals through the forecast period. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1037 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. With the passage of a cold front, a cool airmass will be ushered into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather will close out the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1037 PM EDT...Skies continue to be fairly clear, but plenty of clouds are quickly approaching from the southwest, as an upper level shortwave starts to approach from the eastern Great Lakes. Mid level lapse rates will steepen as the deepening short wave trough moves into the region. Showers are currently ongoing over western NY and west-central PA, and this activity is quickly heading northeast towards our area. After midnight, some showers will start to spread across the region from southwest to northeast. Isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out however confidence too low to include the forecast at this time. The threat for showers won`t last much more than a few hours at any one particular location. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 50s to lower 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons... The Storm Prediction Center has most of the forecast area in the Marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. Steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7C/km are forecast to move across the region during the afternoon. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to lower into the negative teens in during the afternoon as the cold pool associated with the short wave moves over the region during the peak heating of the day. Expecting sufficient instability with CAPE values of 500 to possibly 1000 J/kg especially for areas south and east of the Capital District Albany. Main threat is for strong to damaging winds, however with lowering wet bulb zero heights hail is also a threat. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms during the afternoon; gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable. Chances for convection will wane Tuesday evening as the short wave moves off to the east and the cold front which accompanied moves off the our southeast. A cooler airmass will be ushered in. However another short wave, a more vigorous one, will be the heals of Tuesday`s. This short wave is forecast to move across the region utilizing the heating of the day Wednesday. Once again mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep with 6.5-7C/km and enough instability is expected to be generated with CAPE up to 500 J/km. Also will still have a strong wind field in place and wet bulb heights will be low so any taller convective will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms; gusty winds and small hail. It will be cool with highs only ranging from the lower 50s to upper 60s across the forecast area. These readings are around 10 degrees below normal. Winds will become rather breezy only making it feel cooler/colder. It will be chilly Wednesday night with lows mainly dropping into the 40s with upper 30s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Will have lingering chances for showers across mainly the higher terrain with cold cyclonic flow across the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will continue to be influenced by northwest flow aloft on the backside of a slow departing upper level trough. This will continue to allow for below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. There still could be a brief rain shower for northern areas thanks to the cyclonic flow in place (for the Adirondacks and Southern VT) on Thursday, but surface high pressure should help keep the weather dry for Thursday night into Friday. Highs look mainly in the mid to upper 60s and lows will generally be in the 40s. Over the weekend, low pressure looks to move towards the region from the northwest. This will be a clipper system, similar to what is seen in the winter, with a chance for some rain showers as the storm moves through the area. The best chance for seeing showers will be north of the track of the storm system, and it will ultimately depend on the exact track of this storm for which areas will have the best chance of getting some rainfall. Have gone with chc pops for Saturday into Sunday. Temps will continue to be a little below normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Behind the departing storm system, some ridging will finally start to build into the area for early next week. Temperatures should start to moderate back to normal levels with mainly dry weather on Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue this evening into tonight. While diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening, mid level clouds will move in later tonight. BKN cigs around 10 kft should be in place after midnight and some scattered rain showers will be possible for the late night hours. Coverage will be too limited to warrant any more than a VCSH right now and any shower looks light and brief. Winds will become light from a S-SW direction overnight at 5 kts or less. Clouds will sct out by around 7 am to 9 am in the morning on Tuesday. However, some additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around the area for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Will address with a VCSH for now due to uncertainty regarding timing/coverage. There will be the potential for a few of the storms to be strong. Outside of any shower or t-storm, just sct to bkn clouds at 4-6 kft will be in place. West winds will be around 10 kts on Tuesday, although stronger winds are possible within or near any aftn thunderstorm. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are possible with the thunderstorms. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 920 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Moisture associated with Colin is streaming into the cwa...resulting in a developing high canopy of clouds. Fcst was adjusted to account for this. Otherwise...the fcst was on track with a few shwrs attempting to develop over nern pa which could impact portions of the Hudson Valley overnight. Main activity to watch was still over cntrl PA. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday morning, then moves across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for mvfr-ifr fog/haze early Tuesday morning from KHPN east to KGON. There is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in both of these is too low to put in the TAFs at this time. The flow becomes SW at under 10 kt throughout early this evening...then light and variable later this evening/overnight. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops from Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Will see some seabreeze enhancement near the coast by early afternoon, then winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Western terminals should see winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt by the end of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1 hour. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm early. NW winds g15-25kt likely. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas around 4-5ft on the ern ocean...so the sca remains in effect thru the overnight. Otherwise, winds will decrease across the region. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and CAA causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub- SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Weds morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wed morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the ocean from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have maintained a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will cross the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Broad high pressure will bring dry conditions but cool temperatures late this week into the weekend. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 725 PM update... Diurnal cumulus clouds tending to dissipate with sunset, except hanging in a bit longer across the CT valley on latest visible and IR satellite. Another interesting feature noted on satellite...the northern periphery of high cloudiness stretching up the Eastern seaboard well ahead of TS Colin. Expect these clouds to push across the region over the next few hours. Will also see some low clouds work into the outer Cape and Nantucket. Have held it off until around or after 03Z, as it appears latest high res model /HRRR/ data keeps northern fringe clipping Nantucket. We`ll see how that goes. Have also held back the leading edge of slight chance POPs moving into NW Mass until after midnight, then pushed CHC POPs a bit further N overnight. Kept the CHC POP mainly near or N of the Mass Pike. Best cyclonic flow mainly across N Mass so kept best chance for precip there. Low level moisture /dewpts/ are lower than forecast across the entire region, mainly in the 50s at 23Z even along the S coast. Should see some dewpt pooling start once SW winds pick up overnight, but not sure if this will be enough to see showers develop. Also noting the H5 short wave, with its associated cold pool, slowly pushing SE across the central Great Lakes as seen on latest water vapor satellite imagery. This is in good agreement with short range model data, but looks like best instability remains W of the region until after 06Z. Temps at 23Z mainly in the 70s with some lower 80s across the lower CT valley, except a bit cooler on the islands. Readings will fall back to the 60s by around midnight, except around 70 in the urban centers. Previous discussion... Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the region that coupled with the instability associated with the incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. Have chance PoPs as activity will be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid-morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for convection later in the day Tuesday. Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of 12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thursday and Friday * Below normal temperatures continue into early next week * Uncertain on possible unsettled conditions Saturday into next Monday Overview... Long wave ridging continues across western North America with troughing over the east. This has been rather persistent over the last several weeks, except for brief breaks with warm temperatures last week. The H5 cutoff low shifts slowly E into Quebec Wednesday, with short wave swinging around the vortex across New England. This will enhance the chance of diurnal showers/thunderstorms as the cold pool associated with this feature passes across the region. Continued NW wind flow aloft keeps cooler than normal temperatures across the northeast through the end of the work week, with generally dry conditions as well. From Thursday into the weekend, long wave ridging builds across the Great Plains into central Canada which in turn deepens the downstream trough off the Eastern seaboard. Noting a fast moving short wave out of Alberta and Saskatchewan in the NW flow, quickly shifting SE into the upcoming weekend which looks to bring a period of unsettled conditions. Also noting some mid level energy wrapping around Maritimes low that may swing through around the same time as the fast moving short wave. A lot of questions as to whether the low will remain progressive off the coast or if it cuts off over the Gulf of Maine with lingering unsettled conditions into early next week. Details... Wednesday... Models continue to signal the arrival of a potent mid level trough and short wave Wed afternoon/evening. SREF experimental forecast products continue to show significant mid layer cooling as H5 temps drop to around -20C /3SD below normal/. Model guidance still showing mid level lapse rates on the order of 7 to 7.5 C/km and total totals around 50. Also noting some inverted-V model soundings Wed afternoon inland per 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon into the evening hours as the trough axis crosses the region. Looks like best shot for convection will be across inland areas. Considering the cold pool passing aloft, could see some small hail and gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms especially from about 18Z to 01Z as the core of the cold air and trough axis passes overhead. Expect temps to top off in the lower-mid 60s across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 70s across the coastal plain. Showers should taper off with sunset Wed evening, but a few may linger through 02Z. May see some lingering across the E slopes of the Berkshires as well. Skies will average out partly cloudy, though more clouds look to linger across western areas. Thursday and Friday... NW winds aloft remain in place, so will see mainly dry conditions both Thursday and Friday. It will remain cool through as mid layer temps remain below seasonal normals. With daytime heating, will see NW winds become gusty on Thursday with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Highs on Thursday will range from around 60 across the higher terrain to around 70 along the S coast. Winds will not be quite as gusty on Friday with temps topping off in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the cooler air aloft, will see patchy diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Monday... With fast NW flow aloft remaining in place this weekend into early next week, questions come into play on timing of approaching system out of south central Canada this weekend. With fast movement, confidence is a bit lower on its arrival. Overall, models look to bring system across the region late Saturday or Saturday night. Beyond this, model solutions diverge as to whether this system remains progressive for Sunday and/or Monday. However, appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat good agreement of possibly another mid level short wave may work down in the NW flow, which could slow the surface system down and keep unsettled conditions across the region into early next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically fog prone spots. VFR will lower to IFR at KACK in fog by around 02Z, and may move into portions of outer Cape Cod at times. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible over N/W MA and CT after 08Z. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14Z-15Z, then second beginning about 16Z-17Z and continuing through 03Z-04Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts, higher gusts in and around any TSRA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Expect mainly VFR conditions. Brief local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and/or thunderstorms. May also see brief gusty winds and small hail in any thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk of widely scattered -SHRA near the E slopes of the Berkshires late Thursday morning-afternoon with brief local MVFR conditions. W- NW wind gusts up to around 25 knots expected during the day Thursday. Saturday...Moderate confidence. VFR to start, then lowering to low end VFR-MVFR CIGS, beginning by mid morning across the CT valley and moving E through the day. Scattered showers with local MVFR VSBYS. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence. Wednesday...W winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest on the outer waters. Seas up to 6-8 ft, highest on the southern outer waters. Small crafts will be needed. Scattered thunderstorms Wed afternoon/evening may produce gusty winds and small hail. Thursday...W-NW winds continue to gust up to 25-30 kt. Seas remain AOA 5 ft. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu afternoon/night. Friday...W-NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Seas below 5 ft. Saturday...Winds back to S-SW but remain light. Seas below 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...RLG/EVT MARINE...RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Fcst on track. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday morning, then moves across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for mvfr-ifr fog/haze early Tuesday morning from KHPN east to KGON. There is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in both of these is too low to put in the TAFs at this time. The flow becomes SW at under 10 kt throughout early this evening...then light and variable later this evening/overnight. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops from Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Will see some seabreeze enhancement near the coast by early afternoon, then winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Western terminals should see winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt by the end of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1 hour. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm early. NW winds g15-25kt likely. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas approaching 6 ft at 44017 so issued a sca for seas ern 2/3 of the ocean. Wavewatch appeared to be doing pretty good so it was used. Otherwise for the overnight hours, winds and seas will subside. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and CAA causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub- SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Weds morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wed morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the ocean from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have maintained a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will cross the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Broad high pressure will bring dry conditions but cool temperatures late this week into the weekend. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 725 PM update... Diurnal cumulus clouds tending to dissipate with sunset, except hanging in a bit longer across the CT valley on latest visible and IR satellite. Another interesting feature noted on satellite...the northern periphery of high cloudiness stretching up the Eastern seaboard well ahead of TS Colin. Expect these clouds to push across the region over the next few hours. Will also see some low clouds work into the outer Cape and Nantucket. Have held it off until around or after 03Z, as it appears latest high res model /HRRR/ data keeps northern fringe clipping Nantucket. We`ll see how that goes. Have also held back the leading edge of slight chance POPs moving into NW Mass until after midnight, then pushed CHC POPs a bit further N overnight. Kept the CHC POP mainly near or N of the Mass Pike. Best cyclonic flow mainly across N Mass so kept best chance for precip there. Low level moisture /dewpts/ are lower than forecast across the entire region, mainly in the 50s at 23Z even along the S coast. Should see some dewpt pooling start once SW winds pick up overnight, but not sure if this will be enough to see showers develop. Also noting the H5 short wave, with its associated cold pool, slowly pushing SE across the central Great Lakes as seen on latest water vapor satellite imagery. This is in good agreement with short range model data, but looks like best instability remains W of the region until after 06Z. Temps at 23Z mainly in the 70s with some lower 80s across the lower CT valley, except a bit cooler on the islands. Readings will fall back to the 60s by around midnight, except around 70 in the urban centers. Previous discussion... Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the region that coupled with the instability associated with the incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. Have chance PoPs as activity will be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid-morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for convection later in the day Tuesday. Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of 12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thursday and Friday * Below normal temperatures continue into early next week * Uncertain on possible unsettled conditions Saturday into next Monday Overview... Long wave ridging continues across western North America with troughing over the east. This has been rather persistent over the last several weeks, except for brief breaks with warm temperatures last week. The H5 cutoff low shifts slowly E into Quebec Wednesday, with short wave swinging around the vortex across New England. This will enhance the chance of diurnal showers/thunderstorms as the cold pool associated with this feature passes across the region. Continued NW wind flow aloft keeps cooler than normal temperatures across the northeast through the end of the work week, with generally dry conditions as well. From Thursday into the weekend, long wave ridging builds across the Great Plains into central Canada which in turn deepens the downstream trough off the Eastern seaboard. Noting a fast moving short wave out of Alberta and Saskatchewan in the NW flow, quickly shifting SE into the upcoming weekend which looks to bring a period of unsettled conditions. Also noting some mid level energy wrapping around Maritimes low that may swing through around the same time as the fast moving short wave. A lot of questions as to whether the low will remain progressive off the coast or if it cuts off over the Gulf of Maine with lingering unsettled conditions into early next week. Details... Wednesday... Models continue to signal the arrival of a potent mid level trough and short wave Wed afternoon/evening. SREF experimental forecast products continue to show significant mid layer cooling as H5 temps drop to around -20C /3SD below normal/. Model guidance still showing mid level lapse rates on the order of 7 to 7.5 C/km and total totals around 50. Also noting some inverted-V model soundings Wed afternoon inland per 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon into the evening hours as the trough axis crosses the region. Looks like best shot for convection will be across inland areas. Considering the cold pool passing aloft, could see some small hail and gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms especially from about 18Z to 01Z as the core of the cold air and trough axis passes overhead. Expect temps to top off in the lower-mid 60s across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 70s across the coastal plain. Showers should taper off with sunset Wed evening, but a few may linger through 02Z. May see some lingering across the E slopes of the Berkshires as well. Skies will average out partly cloudy, though more clouds look to linger across western areas. Thursday and Friday... NW winds aloft remain in place, so will see mainly dry conditions both Thursday and Friday. It will remain cool through as mid layer temps remain below seasonal normals. With daytime heating, will see NW winds become gusty on Thursday with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Highs on Thursday will range from around 60 across the higher terrain to around 70 along the S coast. Winds will not be quite as gusty on Friday with temps topping off in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the cooler air aloft, will see patchy diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Monday... With fast NW flow aloft remaining in place this weekend into early next week, questions come into play on timing of approaching system out of south central Canada this weekend. With fast movement, confidence is a bit lower on its arrival. Overall, models look to bring system across the region late Saturday or Saturday night. Beyond this, model solutions diverge as to whether this system remains progressive for Sunday and/or Monday. However, appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat good agreement of possibly another mid level short wave may work down in the NW flow, which could slow the surface system down and keep unsettled conditions across the region into early next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically fog prone spots. VFR will lower to IFR at KACK in fog by around 02Z, and may move into portions of outer Cape Cod at times. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible over N/W MA and CT after 08Z. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14Z-15Z, then second beginning about 16Z-17Z and continuing through 03Z-04Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts, higher gusts in and around any TSRA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Expect mainly VFR conditions. Brief local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and/or thunderstorms. May also see brief gusty winds and small hail in any thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk of widely scattered -SHRA near the E slopes of the Berkshires late Thursday morning-afternoon with brief local MVFR conditions. W- NW wind gusts up to around 25 knots expected during the day Thursday. Saturday...Moderate confidence. VFR to start, then lowering to low end VFR-MVFR CIGS, beginning by mid morning across the CT valley and moving E through the day. Scattered showers with local MVFR VSBYS. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence. Wednesday...W winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest on the outer waters. Seas up to 6-8 ft, highest on the southern outer waters. Small crafts will be needed. Scattered thunderstorms Wed afternoon/evening may produce gusty winds and small hail. Thursday...W-NW winds continue to gust up to 25-30 kt. Seas remain AOA 5 ft. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu afternoon/night. Friday...W-NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Seas below 5 ft. Saturday...Winds back to S-SW but remain light. Seas below 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...RLG/EVT MARINE...RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Fcst on track. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday morning, then moves across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for mvfr-ifr fog/haze early Tuesday morning from KHPN east to KGON. There is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in both of these is too low to put in the TAFs at this time. The flow becomes SW at under 10 kt throughout early this evening...then light and variable later this evening/overnight. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops from Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Will see some seabreeze enhancement near the coast by early afternoon, then winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Western terminals should see winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt by the end of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1 hour. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm early. NW winds g15-25kt likely. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas approaching 6 ft at 44017 so issued a sca for seas ern 2/3 of the ocean. Wavewatch appeared to be doing pretty good so it was used. Otherwise for the overnight hours, winds and seas will subside. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and CAA causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub- SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Weds morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wed morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the ocean from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have maintained a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 731 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. With the passage of a cold front, a cool airmass will be ushered into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather will close out the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 731 PM EDT...As seen in the latest IR satellite imagery, diurnal cumulus clouds are starting to dissipate across the region, allowing for a mostly clear evening. A short wave rotating about the upper low to our north across eastern Canada will be on the approach moving across the Great Lakes region tonight. Mid level lapse rates will steepen as the deepening short wave trough moves into the region. Mid level clouds will be on the increase later tonight with scattered showers developing/moving in after midnight. An isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out however confidence too low to include the forecast at this time. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 50s to lower 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons... The Storm Prediction Center has most of the forecast area in the Marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. Steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7C/km are forecast to move across the region during the afternoon. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to lower into the negative teens in during the afternoon as the cold pool associated with the short wave moves over the region during the peak heating of the day. Expecting sufficient instability with CAPE values of 500 to possibly 1000 J/kg especially for areas south and east of the Capital District Albany. Main threat is for strong to damaging winds, however with lowering wet bulb zero heights hail is also a threat. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms during the afternoon; gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable. Chances for convection will wane Tuesday evening as the short wave moves off to the east and the cold front which accompanied moves off the our southeast. A cooler airmass will be ushered in. However another short wave, a more vigorous one, will be the heals of Tuesday`s. This short wave is forecast to move across the region utilizing the heating of the day Wednesday. Once again mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep with 6.5-7C/km and enough instability is expected to be generated with CAPE up to 500 J/km. Also will still have a strong wind field in place and wet bulb heights will be low so any taller convective will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms; gusty winds and small hail. It will be cool with highs only ranging from the lower 50s to upper 60s across the forecast area. These readings are around 10 degrees below normal. Winds will become rather breezy only making it feel cooler/colder. It will be chilly Wednesday night with lows mainly dropping into the 40s with upper 30s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Will have lingering chances for showers across mainly the higher terrain with cold cyclonic flow across the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will continue to be influenced by northwest flow aloft on the backside of a slow departing upper level trough. This will continue to allow for below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. There still could be a brief rain shower for northern areas thanks to the cyclonic flow in place (for the Adirondacks and Southern VT) on Thursday, but surface high pressure should help keep the weather dry for Thursday night into Friday. Highs look mainly in the mid to upper 60s and lows will generally be in the 40s. Over the weekend, low pressure looks to move towards the region from the northwest. This will be a clipper system, similar to what is seen in the winter, with a chance for some rain showers as the storm moves through the area. The best chance for seeing showers will be north of the track of the storm system, and it will ultimately depend on the exact track of this storm for which areas will have the best chance of getting some rainfall. Have gone with chc pops for Saturday into Sunday. Temps will continue to be a little below normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Behind the departing storm system, some ridging will finally start to build into the area for early next week. Temperatures should start to moderate back to normal levels with mainly dry weather on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue this evening into tonight. While diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening, mid level clouds will move in later tonight. BKN cigs around 10 kft should be in place after midnight and some scattered rain showers will be possible for the late night hours. Coverage will be too limited to warrant any more than a VCSH right now and any shower looks light and brief. Winds will become light from a S-SW direction overnight at 5 kts or less. Clouds will sct out by around 7 am to 9 am in the morning on Tuesday. However, some additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around the area for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Will address with a VCSH for now due to uncertainty regarding timing/coverage. There will be the potential for a few of the storms to be strong. Outside of any shower or t-storm, just sct to bkn clouds at 4-6 kft will be in place. West winds will be around 10 kts on Tuesday, although stronger winds are possible within or near any aftn thunderstorm. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are possible with the thunderstorms. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 413 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening followed by dry but cool conditions Thursday and Friday. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 4 PM Update...Southwesterly to westerly winds are blowing across the area, strong enough to keep sea breezes offshore. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s across much of southern New England. Diurnal cumulus clouds are resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area. Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the region that coupled with the instability associated with the incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. In addition, the 0-6km shear increases to above 50 kts, so some organized activity is possible. Have chance PoPs as activity will be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid- morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for convection later in the day Tuesday. Temperature wise, another mild night is expected, particularly as clouds start to build into the region. Expect low temperatures in the lower 60s for much of the area, with a few readings in the mid to upper 50s across western Massachusetts. Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of 12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler Wed with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thu/Fri * Below normal temps continue next weekend and it may become unsettled but that remains uncertain Overview... Midwest ridge and downstream trof across northeast and maritimes will be the theme of the extended period. This will result in below normal temps into the weekend. Anomalous trof will bring sct showers/t-storms Wed, then mainly dry for the end of the week as the trof lifts to the north. However, building ridge into the upper midwest will result in trof reloading over the maritimes this weekend with baroclinic zone setting up west and south of New Eng. This may result in some unsettled weather this weekend but will depend on where frontal boundary sets up. Details... Wednesday... Rather potent mid level trof and shortwave moves into SNE during the afternoon. Heights 3-4SD below normal with significant cooling aloft as 500 mb temps drop to near -24C. This is quite impressive and mid level lapse rates increase to around 7 C/km with total totals into the mid 50s in response to the cooling aloft. This combined with increasing moisture in the column and strong QG forcing will yield sct-numerous showers and a few t-storms, especially in the afternoon and early evening as the trof axis and core of the coldest air aloft will be over New Eng at 00z. Models are even generating some marginal SBCAPES. High confidence of at least sct showers and a few t-storms Wed afternoon. Certainly the potential for small hail given the anomalous cold temps aloft, and gusty winds will also be possible as soundings show inverted V profile developing. Highs should reach 70-75 in eastern MA/RI with mid/upper 60s interior high terrain with morning sunshine before clouds increase during the afternoon. Thursday and Friday... NW flow regime will result in mainly dry conditions but chilly temps. Coolest day will be Thu as 850 mb temps around 2SD below normal will translate to highs in the 60s with gusty W/NW winds. Some slight modification Fri with upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Expect numerous diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence decreases next weekend as warm frontal boundary on the edge of the midwest heat ridge approaches from the west but will be blocked from moving into the region as maritimes trof maintains NW flow aloft. Where this boundary sets up will determine if more showers and chilly temps affect SNE as a wave will likely travel along the boundary. ECMWF is most bullish with cool and wet weather next weekend, especially Sunday. GFS not as robust and a bit drier. We will probably see some unsettled weather next weekend but confidence is low. If boundary remains far enough to the south and west we could escape with a dry weekend. Temps likely remaining below normal but will depend on whether it is wet or dry. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Through 00Z...High confidence. VFR. S/SW winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically fog prone spots. IFR at KACK in fog. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible over N/W MA and CT after 06Z. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14-15Z. Then the second beginning about 16-17Z and continuing through 03-04Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts, higher gusts in and around any TSRA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs but brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in any afternoon/evening showers/t-storms. Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs. NW wind gusts of 25-30 knots expected during the day Thursday. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence. Tue night into Wednesday...SW winds becoming W Tue night behind the cold front. Increasing west winds Wed with gusts 25-30 kt possible over south coastal waters. SCA seas over southern waters. Wed night into Thursday...W/NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt. SCA seas outer waters. Friday...Diminishing NW winds with seas below SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 945 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included schc pops across the area. Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern. At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday. Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west. A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a warm front. Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal per model and mos consensus/WPC. As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides a trigger. Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale storms expected during this time frame. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure centered well north of the area will swing a trough through the eastern US during the day tomorrow. Now that this morning`s cold front has moved east of the region, VFR conditions will prevail through the day. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday... .Mon Night...VFR. .Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms. .Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt. .Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt .Fri...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight. A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week. As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions likely over the Ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...24/PW SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...FEB/BC MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 716 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included schc pops across the area. Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern. At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday. Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west. A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a warm front. Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal per model and mos consensus/WPC. As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides a trigger. Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale storms expected during this time frame. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front is moving across the terminals and should push east of the region by mid morning. All the terminals have improved to VFR, except those east of NYC, where IFR cigs will be possible through 13z or so. Then, improvement to VFR is expected. Expect the VFR conditions to prevail through the day. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday... .Mon Night...VFR. .Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms. .Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt. .Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt .Fri...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight. A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week. As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions likely over the Ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...24/PW SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BC MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 124 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the region late tonight. Dry weather will overspread the area behind the front thru Monday. A low pressure system will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With main area of pcpn well to the s and e...have removed pops from the forecast overnight with the exception of Orange and western Passaic counties where a light shower associated with the actual cold frontal passage is possible. Have also added patchy fog outside of NYC with residual sfc moisture and light winds. Winds were also too high and were adjusted to better reflect current obs and trends. Rest of forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a blend of the guidance which was in good agreement. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast at that time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves across the terminals late tonight. Showers have ended with most terminals now VFR. The only exception is at KJFK AND KISP where IFR cigs have developed. Not sure how long this lasts. It may take until the front moves through in the morning for those terminals to go VFR. Also, unsure just how far these low cigs overspread. This will need to be monitored overnight. VFR conditions prevail at all terminals on Monday. SW winds under 10 kt overnight. SW winds 10-15 kt on Monday with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday... .Mon Night...VFR. .Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms. .Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt. .Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt .Fri...VFR. && .MARINE... Have cancelled the SCA as seas are well below and winds should remain below as well due to a strong sfc inversion over the waters. Winds and seas remain blw sca lvls through Tue. Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work week. Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High tide has passed and the coastal flood advsy has been allowed to expire. May need a statement on long island`s south shore bays tonight...but will address later. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 116 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross through the region overnight, ending the threat for rain showers. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 115 AM EDT, a weakening cold/occluded front was located from the western Adirondacks into south central NYS. A potent shortwave just passed across far northern NYS a few hours ago, which sparked some showers and thunderstorms across the far NW Adirondacks. Isolated showers will remain possible overnight across the far western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, which will be in closer proximity to this shortwave, and another one which will pass to the north closer to daybreak. Elsewhere, low clouds and some fog was developing across many valley areas, as well as across western New England. This will likely persist until closer to daybreak, when drier air may finally begin to mix out some of this low level moisture. Overnight low temperatures should reach the lower/mid 50s across the higher elevations, to the lower 60s in valley areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower dew points mainly in the 50s. A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from clearing out. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of precip. Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures. For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid- Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below normal. The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The TAF sites remain ahead of the cold front and as such low stratus clouds have overspread the region. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to occur at the TAF sites primarily through 08Z-09Z after which there should be enough mixing in the wake of the cold front to allow conditions to improve to VFR. VFR conditions should be in place for the entire day on Monday. West winds will be 10-15 kts with some higher gusts throughout the day on Monday with just some diurnal cu and passing high cirrus clouds. The winds will diminish during the evening hours with the cirrus clouds becoming thicker as the evening progresses. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some reports minor flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible. Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches across the area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was 1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by around 00Z/Mon and this is occurring. There will be chances for convection into the early morning hours until the passage of the occluded boundary. Unfortunately we have limited rainfall reports coming into our system this evening. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/KL SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...Frugis/11 FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
632 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 19Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving across MN and IA while the upper ridge with a weak upper low trapped within the ridge remains over the inter-mountain west. At the surface, high pressure has slowly been building south through the northern plains and a weak poorly defined frontal boundary is moving through the area. Convergence along the boundary appears to be relatively weak based on objective analysis. There is some modest instability across the forecast area as a result of the temps warming into the mid and upper 80s. Although the models have tended to be overdone with the surface dewpoints and as a result, think the progs of CAPE are over done especially from the NAM. The Latest HRRR continues to suggest storms could become more scattered which may be a result an initial downdraft causing new updrafts. Plan to monitor trends and keep isolated wording for now. Think the storms will fall apart with the loss of daytime heating by 8 or 9 pm. Unless there is more moisture than current obs suggest, think it may be hard to get some hail or wind with the storms but this will have to keep an eye on this. Otherwise northwest flow with a relatively dry airmass and little or no forcing is expected to lead to dry weather overnight and through the day Tuesday. Lows look to be in the mid 50s again with surface ridging over the area. Forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to 850 MB tuesday afternoon. With good insolation through the day, think highs will be a little warmer then 1000-500 MB thicknesses would suggest and have highs around 80 for most area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 328 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 Tuesday night through Thursday...Warm air makes its return from the west as the surface high moves east and the warmer temperatures aloft advect eastward. Could see a shower or thunderstorm in the weaker overnight LLJ and WAA regime, with GFS more aggressive than the EC or the drier NAM. Will only carry slight chances at this time. Overnight lows still fall into the 50s Tuesday night but only into the middle 60s for Wednesday night. Daytime highs in the middle 80s on Wednesday rise a few more degrees into the upper 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Thursday Night through Monday...Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the extended period. Low level moisture will continue to stream northward through next weekend ahead of a weak cold front early next week. With sustained southerly flow, high temperatures will warm into the low to middle 90s Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will then "cool" back into the upper 80s for Monday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon through Monday as the weak frontal boundary moves across the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will continue to veer to the east and southeast throughout the period. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Baerg/67 AVIATION...Baerg Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 202 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will cross the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Broad high pressure will bring dry conditions but cool temperatures late this week into the weekend. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 200 AM UPDATE... Moisture plume from Colin continues to provide upper level cloud deck for the region tonight. Mid-level shortwave approaching eastern PA continues to trigger shower and some thunderstorm across PA and into upstate NY. Appears that this wave will weaken as it moves closer to New England, limiting any strong thunderstorm potential early this morning. Still cannot rule out some thunder as there will be plenty of moisture and SLI will drop below 0. Great risk for precip will be across northern CT to central MA and points westward. Precip will begin to move into the region within the next few hours. Again more sct showers in nature then widespread rainfall. Vsbys are beginning to drop across a few locations in northern MA. Do not expect widespread fall as precip is approaching the region. However locations across the South Coast including the Islands may see fog development later tonight as higher dewpoints continue to advect towards the area. Lastly, appears there could be some splashover during high tide which is occurring right now. BOS did reach to 12.5 feet. Am not expecting any widespread impacts so will hold off on any statement. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thursday and Friday * Below normal temperatures continue into early next week * Uncertain on possible unsettled conditions Saturday into next Monday Overview... Long wave ridging continues across western North America with troughing over the east. This has been rather persistent over the last several weeks, except for brief breaks with warm temperatures last week. The H5 cutoff low shifts slowly E into Quebec Wednesday, with short wave swinging around the vortex across New England. This will enhance the chance of diurnal showers/thunderstorms as the cold pool associated with this feature passes across the region. Continued NW wind flow aloft keeps cooler than normal temperatures across the northeast through the end of the work week, with generally dry conditions as well. From Thursday into the weekend, long wave ridging builds across the Great Plains into central Canada which in turn deepens the downstream trough off the Eastern seaboard. Noting a fast moving short wave out of Alberta and Saskatchewan in the NW flow, quickly shifting SE into the upcoming weekend which looks to bring a period of unsettled conditions. Also noting some mid level energy wrapping around Maritimes low that may swing through around the same time as the fast moving short wave. A lot of questions as to whether the low will remain progressive off the coast or if it cuts off over the Gulf of Maine with lingering unsettled conditions into early next week. Details... Wednesday... Models continue to signal the arrival of a potent mid level trough and short wave Wed afternoon/evening. SREF experimental forecast products continue to show significant mid layer cooling as H5 temps drop to around -20C /3SD below normal/. Model guidance still showing mid level lapse rates on the order of 7 to 7.5 C/km and total totals around 50. Also noting some inverted-V model soundings Wed afternoon inland per 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon into the evening hours as the trough axis crosses the region. Looks like best shot for convection will be across inland areas. Considering the cold pool passing aloft, could see some small hail and gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms especially from about 18Z to 01Z as the core of the cold air and trough axis passes overhead. Expect temps to top off in the lower-mid 60s across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 70s across the coastal plain. Showers should taper off with sunset Wed evening, but a few may linger through 02Z. May see some lingering across the E slopes of the Berkshires as well. Skies will average out partly cloudy, though more clouds look to linger across western areas. Thursday and Friday... NW winds aloft remain in place, so will see mainly dry conditions both Thursday and Friday. It will remain cool through as mid layer temps remain below seasonal normals. With daytime heating, will see NW winds become gusty on Thursday with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Highs on Thursday will range from around 60 across the higher terrain to around 70 along the S coast. Winds will not be quite as gusty on Friday with temps topping off in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the cooler air aloft, will see patchy diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Monday... With fast NW flow aloft remaining in place this weekend into early next week, questions come into play on timing of approaching system out of south central Canada this weekend. With fast movement, confidence is a bit lower on its arrival. Overall, models look to bring system across the region late Saturday or Saturday night. Beyond this, model solutions diverge as to whether this system remains progressive for Sunday and/or Monday. However, appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat good agreement of possibly another mid level short wave may work down in the NW flow, which could slow the surface system down and keep unsettled conditions across the region into early next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday/... Before 12z...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions through most of the night. Could see MVFR/IFR across Cape and Islands in Marine stratus/fog. Otherwise sct showers will move in around 07z and should exit SNE by 12z. Could see a rumble of thunder for BDL/BAF. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Sct showers and thunderstorms after 18z. Locations could drop to MVFR within any strong storm. Gusty winds and small hail main threat. Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR for most of the region with MVFR/IFR across South Coast, Cape and Islands from Marine stratus. Conditions improve by morning. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR for the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the day. Gusty winds and small hail the main threat. Conditions could lower to MVFR within any strong thunderstorm. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in SCT SHRA/TSRA after 18z. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Another round of SCT SHRA/TSRA developing this afternoon. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk of widely scattered -SHRA near the E slopes of the Berkshires late Thursday morning-afternoon with brief local MVFR conditions. W- NW wind gusts up to around 25 knots expected during the day Thursday. Saturday...Moderate confidence. VFR to start, then lowering to low end VFR-MVFR CIGS, beginning by mid morning across the CT valley and moving E through the day. Scattered showers with local MVFR VSBYS. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...High confidence. Wednesday...W winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest on the outer waters. Seas up to 6-8 ft, highest on the southern outer waters. Small crafts will be needed. Scattered thunderstorms Wed afternoon/evening may produce gusty winds and small hail. Thursday...W-NW winds continue to gust up to 25-30 kt. Seas remain AOA 5 ft. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu afternoon/night. Friday...W-NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Seas below 5 ft. Saturday...Winds back to S-SW but remain light. Seas below 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT NEAR TERM...Dunten SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...Dunten/EVT MARINE...Dunten/RLG/EVT
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Moisture associated with Colin is streaming into the CWA...resulting in a developing high canopy of clouds. The forecast was adjusted to account for this. Otherwise, the forecast was on track with a few showers attempting to develop over northeastern PA which could impact portions of the Hudson Valley overnight. Main activity to watch was still over central PA. Weak high pressure will be over the area overnight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through this morning, then moves across the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure then builds in later tonight. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for showers to impact Lower Hudson Valley Terminals early this morning. In addition, there is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now have a VCSH at KSWF for each threat, with confidence elsewhere too low to put in the TAF at this time. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops this morning. Will see some seabreeze enhancement KJFK/CT coast by early afternoon. Winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Winds then shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt late this afternoon/early this evening from w to e behind the cold front. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Late Tuesday night...VFR. NW winds g15-20kt possible. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas around 4-5ft on the eastern ocean zones...so the SCA remains in effect through 6AM Tuesday. Otherwise, winds will decrease across the region. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and cold air advection causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub-SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Wednesday morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wednesday morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the coastal ocean waters from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. Sub- small craft conditions are expected Thursday night-Saturday as the pressure gradient weakens over the waters around Long Island. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flood benchmarks are just being met currently across backshore bays of Lower York Harbor/SW Long Island, so will continue with the coastal flood statement as is through 3z. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 113 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. With the passage of a cold front, a cool airmass will be ushered into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather will close out the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1037 PM EDT...Skies continue to be fairly clear, but plenty of clouds are quickly approaching from the southwest, as an upper level shortwave starts to approach from the eastern Great Lakes. Mid level lapse rates will steepen as the deepening short wave trough moves into the region. Showers are currently ongoing over western NY and west-central PA, and this activity is quickly heading northeast towards our area. After midnight, some showers will start to spread across the region from southwest to northeast. Isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out however confidence too low to include the forecast at this time. The threat for showers won`t last much more than a few hours at any one particular location. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 50s to lower 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons... The Storm Prediction Center has most of the forecast area in the Marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. Steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7C/km are forecast to move across the region during the afternoon. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to lower into the negative teens in during the afternoon as the cold pool associated with the short wave moves over the region during the peak heating of the day. Expecting sufficient instability with CAPE values of 500 to possibly 1000 J/kg especially for areas south and east of the Capital District Albany. Main threat is for strong to damaging winds, however with lowering wet bulb zero heights hail is also a threat. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms during the afternoon; gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable. Chances for convection will wane Tuesday evening as the short wave moves off to the east and the cold front which accompanied moves off the our southeast. A cooler airmass will be ushered in. However another short wave, a more vigorous one, will be the heals of Tuesday`s. This short wave is forecast to move across the region utilizing the heating of the day Wednesday. Once again mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep with 6.5-7C/km and enough instability is expected to be generated with CAPE up to 500 J/km. Also will still have a strong wind field in place and wet bulb heights will be low so any taller convective will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms; gusty winds and small hail. It will be cool with highs only ranging from the lower 50s to upper 60s across the forecast area. These readings are around 10 degrees below normal. Winds will become rather breezy only making it feel cooler/colder. It will be chilly Wednesday night with lows mainly dropping into the 40s with upper 30s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Will have lingering chances for showers across mainly the higher terrain with cold cyclonic flow across the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will continue to be influenced by northwest flow aloft on the backside of a slow departing upper level trough. This will continue to allow for below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. There still could be a brief rain shower for northern areas thanks to the cyclonic flow in place (for the Adirondacks and Southern VT) on Thursday, but surface high pressure should help keep the weather dry for Thursday night into Friday. Highs look mainly in the mid to upper 60s and lows will generally be in the 40s. Over the weekend, low pressure looks to move towards the region from the northwest. This will be a clipper system, similar to what is seen in the winter, with a chance for some rain showers as the storm moves through the area. The best chance for seeing showers will be north of the track of the storm system, and it will ultimately depend on the exact track of this storm for which areas will have the best chance of getting some rainfall. Have gone with chc pops for Saturday into Sunday. Temps will continue to be a little below normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Behind the departing storm system, some ridging will finally start to build into the area for early next week. Temperatures should start to moderate back to normal levels with mainly dry weather on Monday. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Most TAF sites will experience VFR conditions for the next few hours the exception will be at KGFL where MVFR/IFR conditions are expected due to some fog. MVFR conditions will develop btwn 08Z and 09Z as bands of showers move into the area and these should last through the early morning hours. Clouds will sct out by around 7 am to 9 am in the morning. However, some additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around the area for this afternoon into this evening. Will address with a VCSH for now due to uncertainty regarding timing/coverage. There will be the potential for a few of the storms to be strong. Outside of any shower or t-storm, just sct to bkn clouds at 4-6 kft will be in place. West winds will be around 10 kts on Tuesday, although stronger winds are possible within or near any aftn thunderstorm. Once the shower and thunderstorm activity dies down late this evening conditions will be VFR with bkn clouds btwn 4 and 5 kft and winds west at 5-11 kts. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are possible with the thunderstorms. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis/11 FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1037 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. With the passage of a cold front, a cool airmass will be ushered into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather will close out the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1037 PM EDT...Skies continue to be fairly clear, but plenty of clouds are quickly approaching from the southwest, as an upper level shortwave starts to approach from the eastern Great Lakes. Mid level lapse rates will steepen as the deepening short wave trough moves into the region. Showers are currently ongoing over western NY and west-central PA, and this activity is quickly heading northeast towards our area. After midnight, some showers will start to spread across the region from southwest to northeast. Isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out however confidence too low to include the forecast at this time. The threat for showers won`t last much more than a few hours at any one particular location. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 50s to lower 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons... The Storm Prediction Center has most of the forecast area in the Marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. Steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7C/km are forecast to move across the region during the afternoon. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to lower into the negative teens in during the afternoon as the cold pool associated with the short wave moves over the region during the peak heating of the day. Expecting sufficient instability with CAPE values of 500 to possibly 1000 J/kg especially for areas south and east of the Capital District Albany. Main threat is for strong to damaging winds, however with lowering wet bulb zero heights hail is also a threat. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms during the afternoon; gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable. Chances for convection will wane Tuesday evening as the short wave moves off to the east and the cold front which accompanied moves off the our southeast. A cooler airmass will be ushered in. However another short wave, a more vigorous one, will be the heals of Tuesday`s. This short wave is forecast to move across the region utilizing the heating of the day Wednesday. Once again mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep with 6.5-7C/km and enough instability is expected to be generated with CAPE up to 500 J/km. Also will still have a strong wind field in place and wet bulb heights will be low so any taller convective will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms; gusty winds and small hail. It will be cool with highs only ranging from the lower 50s to upper 60s across the forecast area. These readings are around 10 degrees below normal. Winds will become rather breezy only making it feel cooler/colder. It will be chilly Wednesday night with lows mainly dropping into the 40s with upper 30s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Will have lingering chances for showers across mainly the higher terrain with cold cyclonic flow across the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will continue to be influenced by northwest flow aloft on the backside of a slow departing upper level trough. This will continue to allow for below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. There still could be a brief rain shower for northern areas thanks to the cyclonic flow in place (for the Adirondacks and Southern VT) on Thursday, but surface high pressure should help keep the weather dry for Thursday night into Friday. Highs look mainly in the mid to upper 60s and lows will generally be in the 40s. Over the weekend, low pressure looks to move towards the region from the northwest. This will be a clipper system, similar to what is seen in the winter, with a chance for some rain showers as the storm moves through the area. The best chance for seeing showers will be north of the track of the storm system, and it will ultimately depend on the exact track of this storm for which areas will have the best chance of getting some rainfall. Have gone with chc pops for Saturday into Sunday. Temps will continue to be a little below normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Behind the departing storm system, some ridging will finally start to build into the area for early next week. Temperatures should start to moderate back to normal levels with mainly dry weather on Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue this evening into tonight. While diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening, mid level clouds will move in later tonight. BKN cigs around 10 kft should be in place after midnight and some scattered rain showers will be possible for the late night hours. Coverage will be too limited to warrant any more than a VCSH right now and any shower looks light and brief. Winds will become light from a S-SW direction overnight at 5 kts or less. Clouds will sct out by around 7 am to 9 am in the morning on Tuesday. However, some additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around the area for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Will address with a VCSH for now due to uncertainty regarding timing/coverage. There will be the potential for a few of the storms to be strong. Outside of any shower or t-storm, just sct to bkn clouds at 4-6 kft will be in place. West winds will be around 10 kts on Tuesday, although stronger winds are possible within or near any aftn thunderstorm. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are possible with the thunderstorms. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 920 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Moisture associated with Colin is streaming into the cwa...resulting in a developing high canopy of clouds. Fcst was adjusted to account for this. Otherwise...the fcst was on track with a few shwrs attempting to develop over nern pa which could impact portions of the Hudson Valley overnight. Main activity to watch was still over cntrl PA. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday morning, then moves across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for mvfr-ifr fog/haze early Tuesday morning from KHPN east to KGON. There is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in both of these is too low to put in the TAFs at this time. The flow becomes SW at under 10 kt throughout early this evening...then light and variable later this evening/overnight. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops from Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Will see some seabreeze enhancement near the coast by early afternoon, then winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Western terminals should see winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt by the end of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1 hour. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm early. NW winds g15-25kt likely. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas around 4-5ft on the ern ocean...so the sca remains in effect thru the overnight. Otherwise, winds will decrease across the region. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and CAA causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub- SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Weds morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wed morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the ocean from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have maintained a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will cross the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Broad high pressure will bring dry conditions but cool temperatures late this week into the weekend. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 725 PM update... Diurnal cumulus clouds tending to dissipate with sunset, except hanging in a bit longer across the CT valley on latest visible and IR satellite. Another interesting feature noted on satellite...the northern periphery of high cloudiness stretching up the Eastern seaboard well ahead of TS Colin. Expect these clouds to push across the region over the next few hours. Will also see some low clouds work into the outer Cape and Nantucket. Have held it off until around or after 03Z, as it appears latest high res model /HRRR/ data keeps northern fringe clipping Nantucket. We`ll see how that goes. Have also held back the leading edge of slight chance POPs moving into NW Mass until after midnight, then pushed CHC POPs a bit further N overnight. Kept the CHC POP mainly near or N of the Mass Pike. Best cyclonic flow mainly across N Mass so kept best chance for precip there. Low level moisture /dewpts/ are lower than forecast across the entire region, mainly in the 50s at 23Z even along the S coast. Should see some dewpt pooling start once SW winds pick up overnight, but not sure if this will be enough to see showers develop. Also noting the H5 short wave, with its associated cold pool, slowly pushing SE across the central Great Lakes as seen on latest water vapor satellite imagery. This is in good agreement with short range model data, but looks like best instability remains W of the region until after 06Z. Temps at 23Z mainly in the 70s with some lower 80s across the lower CT valley, except a bit cooler on the islands. Readings will fall back to the 60s by around midnight, except around 70 in the urban centers. Previous discussion... Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the region that coupled with the instability associated with the incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. Have chance PoPs as activity will be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid-morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for convection later in the day Tuesday. Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of 12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thursday and Friday * Below normal temperatures continue into early next week * Uncertain on possible unsettled conditions Saturday into next Monday Overview... Long wave ridging continues across western North America with troughing over the east. This has been rather persistent over the last several weeks, except for brief breaks with warm temperatures last week. The H5 cutoff low shifts slowly E into Quebec Wednesday, with short wave swinging around the vortex across New England. This will enhance the chance of diurnal showers/thunderstorms as the cold pool associated with this feature passes across the region. Continued NW wind flow aloft keeps cooler than normal temperatures across the northeast through the end of the work week, with generally dry conditions as well. From Thursday into the weekend, long wave ridging builds across the Great Plains into central Canada which in turn deepens the downstream trough off the Eastern seaboard. Noting a fast moving short wave out of Alberta and Saskatchewan in the NW flow, quickly shifting SE into the upcoming weekend which looks to bring a period of unsettled conditions. Also noting some mid level energy wrapping around Maritimes low that may swing through around the same time as the fast moving short wave. A lot of questions as to whether the low will remain progressive off the coast or if it cuts off over the Gulf of Maine with lingering unsettled conditions into early next week. Details... Wednesday... Models continue to signal the arrival of a potent mid level trough and short wave Wed afternoon/evening. SREF experimental forecast products continue to show significant mid layer cooling as H5 temps drop to around -20C /3SD below normal/. Model guidance still showing mid level lapse rates on the order of 7 to 7.5 C/km and total totals around 50. Also noting some inverted-V model soundings Wed afternoon inland per 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon into the evening hours as the trough axis crosses the region. Looks like best shot for convection will be across inland areas. Considering the cold pool passing aloft, could see some small hail and gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms especially from about 18Z to 01Z as the core of the cold air and trough axis passes overhead. Expect temps to top off in the lower-mid 60s across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 70s across the coastal plain. Showers should taper off with sunset Wed evening, but a few may linger through 02Z. May see some lingering across the E slopes of the Berkshires as well. Skies will average out partly cloudy, though more clouds look to linger across western areas. Thursday and Friday... NW winds aloft remain in place, so will see mainly dry conditions both Thursday and Friday. It will remain cool through as mid layer temps remain below seasonal normals. With daytime heating, will see NW winds become gusty on Thursday with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Highs on Thursday will range from around 60 across the higher terrain to around 70 along the S coast. Winds will not be quite as gusty on Friday with temps topping off in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the cooler air aloft, will see patchy diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Monday... With fast NW flow aloft remaining in place this weekend into early next week, questions come into play on timing of approaching system out of south central Canada this weekend. With fast movement, confidence is a bit lower on its arrival. Overall, models look to bring system across the region late Saturday or Saturday night. Beyond this, model solutions diverge as to whether this system remains progressive for Sunday and/or Monday. However, appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat good agreement of possibly another mid level short wave may work down in the NW flow, which could slow the surface system down and keep unsettled conditions across the region into early next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically fog prone spots. VFR will lower to IFR at KACK in fog by around 02Z, and may move into portions of outer Cape Cod at times. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible over N/W MA and CT after 08Z. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14Z-15Z, then second beginning about 16Z-17Z and continuing through 03Z-04Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts, higher gusts in and around any TSRA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Expect mainly VFR conditions. Brief local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and/or thunderstorms. May also see brief gusty winds and small hail in any thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk of widely scattered -SHRA near the E slopes of the Berkshires late Thursday morning-afternoon with brief local MVFR conditions. W- NW wind gusts up to around 25 knots expected during the day Thursday. Saturday...Moderate confidence. VFR to start, then lowering to low end VFR-MVFR CIGS, beginning by mid morning across the CT valley and moving E through the day. Scattered showers with local MVFR VSBYS. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence. Wednesday...W winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest on the outer waters. Seas up to 6-8 ft, highest on the southern outer waters. Small crafts will be needed. Scattered thunderstorms Wed afternoon/evening may produce gusty winds and small hail. Thursday...W-NW winds continue to gust up to 25-30 kt. Seas remain AOA 5 ft. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu afternoon/night. Friday...W-NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Seas below 5 ft. Saturday...Winds back to S-SW but remain light. Seas below 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...RLG/EVT MARINE...RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Fcst on track. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday morning, then moves across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for mvfr-ifr fog/haze early Tuesday morning from KHPN east to KGON. There is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in both of these is too low to put in the TAFs at this time. The flow becomes SW at under 10 kt throughout early this evening...then light and variable later this evening/overnight. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops from Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Will see some seabreeze enhancement near the coast by early afternoon, then winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Western terminals should see winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt by the end of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1 hour. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm early. NW winds g15-25kt likely. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas approaching 6 ft at 44017 so issued a sca for seas ern 2/3 of the ocean. Wavewatch appeared to be doing pretty good so it was used. Otherwise for the overnight hours, winds and seas will subside. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and CAA causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub- SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Weds morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wed morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the ocean from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have maintained a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will cross the region, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Broad high pressure will bring dry conditions but cool temperatures late this week into the weekend. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 725 PM update... Diurnal cumulus clouds tending to dissipate with sunset, except hanging in a bit longer across the CT valley on latest visible and IR satellite. Another interesting feature noted on satellite...the northern periphery of high cloudiness stretching up the Eastern seaboard well ahead of TS Colin. Expect these clouds to push across the region over the next few hours. Will also see some low clouds work into the outer Cape and Nantucket. Have held it off until around or after 03Z, as it appears latest high res model /HRRR/ data keeps northern fringe clipping Nantucket. We`ll see how that goes. Have also held back the leading edge of slight chance POPs moving into NW Mass until after midnight, then pushed CHC POPs a bit further N overnight. Kept the CHC POP mainly near or N of the Mass Pike. Best cyclonic flow mainly across N Mass so kept best chance for precip there. Low level moisture /dewpts/ are lower than forecast across the entire region, mainly in the 50s at 23Z even along the S coast. Should see some dewpt pooling start once SW winds pick up overnight, but not sure if this will be enough to see showers develop. Also noting the H5 short wave, with its associated cold pool, slowly pushing SE across the central Great Lakes as seen on latest water vapor satellite imagery. This is in good agreement with short range model data, but looks like best instability remains W of the region until after 06Z. Temps at 23Z mainly in the 70s with some lower 80s across the lower CT valley, except a bit cooler on the islands. Readings will fall back to the 60s by around midnight, except around 70 in the urban centers. Previous discussion... Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the region that coupled with the instability associated with the incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. Have chance PoPs as activity will be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid-morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for convection later in the day Tuesday. Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of 12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thursday and Friday * Below normal temperatures continue into early next week * Uncertain on possible unsettled conditions Saturday into next Monday Overview... Long wave ridging continues across western North America with troughing over the east. This has been rather persistent over the last several weeks, except for brief breaks with warm temperatures last week. The H5 cutoff low shifts slowly E into Quebec Wednesday, with short wave swinging around the vortex across New England. This will enhance the chance of diurnal showers/thunderstorms as the cold pool associated with this feature passes across the region. Continued NW wind flow aloft keeps cooler than normal temperatures across the northeast through the end of the work week, with generally dry conditions as well. From Thursday into the weekend, long wave ridging builds across the Great Plains into central Canada which in turn deepens the downstream trough off the Eastern seaboard. Noting a fast moving short wave out of Alberta and Saskatchewan in the NW flow, quickly shifting SE into the upcoming weekend which looks to bring a period of unsettled conditions. Also noting some mid level energy wrapping around Maritimes low that may swing through around the same time as the fast moving short wave. A lot of questions as to whether the low will remain progressive off the coast or if it cuts off over the Gulf of Maine with lingering unsettled conditions into early next week. Details... Wednesday... Models continue to signal the arrival of a potent mid level trough and short wave Wed afternoon/evening. SREF experimental forecast products continue to show significant mid layer cooling as H5 temps drop to around -20C /3SD below normal/. Model guidance still showing mid level lapse rates on the order of 7 to 7.5 C/km and total totals around 50. Also noting some inverted-V model soundings Wed afternoon inland per 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon into the evening hours as the trough axis crosses the region. Looks like best shot for convection will be across inland areas. Considering the cold pool passing aloft, could see some small hail and gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms especially from about 18Z to 01Z as the core of the cold air and trough axis passes overhead. Expect temps to top off in the lower-mid 60s across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 70s across the coastal plain. Showers should taper off with sunset Wed evening, but a few may linger through 02Z. May see some lingering across the E slopes of the Berkshires as well. Skies will average out partly cloudy, though more clouds look to linger across western areas. Thursday and Friday... NW winds aloft remain in place, so will see mainly dry conditions both Thursday and Friday. It will remain cool through as mid layer temps remain below seasonal normals. With daytime heating, will see NW winds become gusty on Thursday with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Highs on Thursday will range from around 60 across the higher terrain to around 70 along the S coast. Winds will not be quite as gusty on Friday with temps topping off in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the cooler air aloft, will see patchy diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Monday... With fast NW flow aloft remaining in place this weekend into early next week, questions come into play on timing of approaching system out of south central Canada this weekend. With fast movement, confidence is a bit lower on its arrival. Overall, models look to bring system across the region late Saturday or Saturday night. Beyond this, model solutions diverge as to whether this system remains progressive for Sunday and/or Monday. However, appears that both the GFS and ECMWF have come into somewhat good agreement of possibly another mid level short wave may work down in the NW flow, which could slow the surface system down and keep unsettled conditions across the region into early next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically fog prone spots. VFR will lower to IFR at KACK in fog by around 02Z, and may move into portions of outer Cape Cod at times. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible over N/W MA and CT after 08Z. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14Z-15Z, then second beginning about 16Z-17Z and continuing through 03Z-04Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts, higher gusts in and around any TSRA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Expect mainly VFR conditions. Brief local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and/or thunderstorms. May also see brief gusty winds and small hail in any thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk of widely scattered -SHRA near the E slopes of the Berkshires late Thursday morning-afternoon with brief local MVFR conditions. W- NW wind gusts up to around 25 knots expected during the day Thursday. Saturday...Moderate confidence. VFR to start, then lowering to low end VFR-MVFR CIGS, beginning by mid morning across the CT valley and moving E through the day. Scattered showers with local MVFR VSBYS. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence. Wednesday...W winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest on the outer waters. Seas up to 6-8 ft, highest on the southern outer waters. Small crafts will be needed. Scattered thunderstorms Wed afternoon/evening may produce gusty winds and small hail. Thursday...W-NW winds continue to gust up to 25-30 kt. Seas remain AOA 5 ft. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu afternoon/night. Friday...W-NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Seas below 5 ft. Saturday...Winds back to S-SW but remain light. Seas below 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...RLG/EVT MARINE...RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains in place tonight. A cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon into evening. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. Low pressure will then spin over the Canadian Maritimes late this week while high pressure builds to the south and west. The weakening high will slide across on Saturday, followed by an Alberta clipper low moving across Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will return later Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Fcst on track. Weak high pressure will be over the area tonight, and this will keep most of the cwa dry. There will however be a chance of showers for some spots. As a jet streak shifts north into the region, synoptic lift increases. At the same time, a shortwave/PVA associated with a deepening upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region begins to head our way. Further synoptic lift appears to occur not too far to our NW as a coupled jet structure sets up. Most of any resulting rainfall therefore passes us to the north, but possibly clipping some areas north and west of the city. Have capped pops at chance here. Used superblend for low temps. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough/500mb shortwave/cold pool aloft, as well as a surface cold front shift into the region during the day Tuesday. 850-700mb shortwave precedes the 500mb shortwave and will have some CAPE to interact with. The cold pool aloft will result in moderately unstable mid level lapse rates, and the jet couplet, although not as strong, shifts into the region. A limiting factor will be moisture availability as moisture isn`t all that deep, but sufficient for pcpn. The combination of all of this leads to sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot rule out the chance of small hail, particularly over the CT zones with lowering wet-bulb zeroes, higher CAPE and stronger 0-6km shear. Gusty winds will be possible in showers/tstms with an inverted V profile in the sub-cloud layer. High temps above normal. The atmosphere stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating, and shortwave energy shifts east - flattening the flow aloft. Will therefore go with a dry forecast for the late evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A sfc cold front, potent mid level disturbance, and cold pool aloft will swing across on Wed. during the daytime hours. These sources of lift/instability along with steep low level lapse rates should generate scattered showers/tstms capable of producing gusty winds. An isold damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially if timing is later than expected, which might allow greater heating and instability. A gusty W-NW flow will take hold for later Wed into Thu after cold frontal passage, with temps slightly cooler than average. An Alberta clipper low should bring sct showers mainly Sat night into Sunday morning, but extended chances into Sunday afternoon due to some model timing uncertainties. Fine weather with temperatures near or a little above average then expected Monday with the return of high pressure. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday morning, then moves across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance for mvfr-ifr fog/haze early Tuesday morning from KHPN east to KGON. There is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in both of these is too low to put in the TAFs at this time. The flow becomes SW at under 10 kt throughout early this evening...then light and variable later this evening/overnight. WSW-SSW flow at 5-10kt develops from Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Will see some seabreeze enhancement near the coast by early afternoon, then winds increase to around 10 kt out of the wsw by late afternoon. Western terminals should see winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15g20-25kt by the end of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1 hour. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm early. NW winds g15-25kt likely. .Wednesday...Mostly VFR with a low chance of a shower. W-WNW winds G20-25kt possible. .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt possible. .Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Seas approaching 6 ft at 44017 so issued a sca for seas ern 2/3 of the ocean. Wavewatch appeared to be doing pretty good so it was used. Otherwise for the overnight hours, winds and seas will subside. Another period of marginal advisory conditions arrives for the overnight hours on Tuesday night behind a cold front passage and CAA causing gusty winds. With both winds and seas potentially at advisory levels primarily over the later half of the 3rd period, will hold off on SCA, especially since that there could be an extended period of sub- SCA conds prevailing very late at night into Weds morning. Unsure if SCA conditions will be met anywhere Wed morning, but appear more likely thereafter on the ocean from Wed afternoon into Thu afternoon after a cold frontal passage, as the pressure gradient tightens and low levels destabilize. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have maintained a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 731 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. With the passage of a cold front, a cool airmass will be ushered into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather will close out the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 731 PM EDT...As seen in the latest IR satellite imagery, diurnal cumulus clouds are starting to dissipate across the region, allowing for a mostly clear evening. A short wave rotating about the upper low to our north across eastern Canada will be on the approach moving across the Great Lakes region tonight. Mid level lapse rates will steepen as the deepening short wave trough moves into the region. Mid level clouds will be on the increase later tonight with scattered showers developing/moving in after midnight. An isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out however confidence too low to include the forecast at this time. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 50s to lower 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons... The Storm Prediction Center has most of the forecast area in the Marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. Steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7C/km are forecast to move across the region during the afternoon. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to lower into the negative teens in during the afternoon as the cold pool associated with the short wave moves over the region during the peak heating of the day. Expecting sufficient instability with CAPE values of 500 to possibly 1000 J/kg especially for areas south and east of the Capital District Albany. Main threat is for strong to damaging winds, however with lowering wet bulb zero heights hail is also a threat. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms during the afternoon; gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable. Chances for convection will wane Tuesday evening as the short wave moves off to the east and the cold front which accompanied moves off the our southeast. A cooler airmass will be ushered in. However another short wave, a more vigorous one, will be the heals of Tuesday`s. This short wave is forecast to move across the region utilizing the heating of the day Wednesday. Once again mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep with 6.5-7C/km and enough instability is expected to be generated with CAPE up to 500 J/km. Also will still have a strong wind field in place and wet bulb heights will be low so any taller convective will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Have maintained enhanced working in forecast with thunderstorms; gusty winds and small hail. It will be cool with highs only ranging from the lower 50s to upper 60s across the forecast area. These readings are around 10 degrees below normal. Winds will become rather breezy only making it feel cooler/colder. It will be chilly Wednesday night with lows mainly dropping into the 40s with upper 30s across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Will have lingering chances for showers across mainly the higher terrain with cold cyclonic flow across the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will continue to be influenced by northwest flow aloft on the backside of a slow departing upper level trough. This will continue to allow for below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. There still could be a brief rain shower for northern areas thanks to the cyclonic flow in place (for the Adirondacks and Southern VT) on Thursday, but surface high pressure should help keep the weather dry for Thursday night into Friday. Highs look mainly in the mid to upper 60s and lows will generally be in the 40s. Over the weekend, low pressure looks to move towards the region from the northwest. This will be a clipper system, similar to what is seen in the winter, with a chance for some rain showers as the storm moves through the area. The best chance for seeing showers will be north of the track of the storm system, and it will ultimately depend on the exact track of this storm for which areas will have the best chance of getting some rainfall. Have gone with chc pops for Saturday into Sunday. Temps will continue to be a little below normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Behind the departing storm system, some ridging will finally start to build into the area for early next week. Temperatures should start to moderate back to normal levels with mainly dry weather on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue this evening into tonight. While diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening, mid level clouds will move in later tonight. BKN cigs around 10 kft should be in place after midnight and some scattered rain showers will be possible for the late night hours. Coverage will be too limited to warrant any more than a VCSH right now and any shower looks light and brief. Winds will become light from a S-SW direction overnight at 5 kts or less. Clouds will sct out by around 7 am to 9 am in the morning on Tuesday. However, some additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around the area for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Will address with a VCSH for now due to uncertainty regarding timing/coverage. There will be the potential for a few of the storms to be strong. Outside of any shower or t-storm, just sct to bkn clouds at 4-6 kft will be in place. West winds will be around 10 kts on Tuesday, although stronger winds are possible within or near any aftn thunderstorm. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Disturbances moving around a large low in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend as a low pressure system approaches and crosses the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are possible with the thunderstorms. Cool and fair weather is expected for the latter part of the work week with chances for showers over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 413 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening followed by dry but cool conditions Thursday and Friday. More unsettled weather is possible next weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 4 PM Update...Southwesterly to westerly winds are blowing across the area, strong enough to keep sea breezes offshore. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s across much of southern New England. Diurnal cumulus clouds are resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area. Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the region that coupled with the instability associated with the incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. In addition, the 0-6km shear increases to above 50 kts, so some organized activity is possible. Have chance PoPs as activity will be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid- morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for convection later in the day Tuesday. Temperature wise, another mild night is expected, particularly as clouds start to build into the region. Expect low temperatures in the lower 60s for much of the area, with a few readings in the mid to upper 50s across western Massachusetts. Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of 12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon*** Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec, cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into southern New England during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the rest of the morning. At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording. Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Cooler Wed with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms * Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thu/Fri * Below normal temps continue next weekend and it may become unsettled but that remains uncertain Overview... Midwest ridge and downstream trof across northeast and maritimes will be the theme of the extended period. This will result in below normal temps into the weekend. Anomalous trof will bring sct showers/t-storms Wed, then mainly dry for the end of the week as the trof lifts to the north. However, building ridge into the upper midwest will result in trof reloading over the maritimes this weekend with baroclinic zone setting up west and south of New Eng. This may result in some unsettled weather this weekend but will depend on where frontal boundary sets up. Details... Wednesday... Rather potent mid level trof and shortwave moves into SNE during the afternoon. Heights 3-4SD below normal with significant cooling aloft as 500 mb temps drop to near -24C. This is quite impressive and mid level lapse rates increase to around 7 C/km with total totals into the mid 50s in response to the cooling aloft. This combined with increasing moisture in the column and strong QG forcing will yield sct-numerous showers and a few t-storms, especially in the afternoon and early evening as the trof axis and core of the coldest air aloft will be over New Eng at 00z. Models are even generating some marginal SBCAPES. High confidence of at least sct showers and a few t-storms Wed afternoon. Certainly the potential for small hail given the anomalous cold temps aloft, and gusty winds will also be possible as soundings show inverted V profile developing. Highs should reach 70-75 in eastern MA/RI with mid/upper 60s interior high terrain with morning sunshine before clouds increase during the afternoon. Thursday and Friday... NW flow regime will result in mainly dry conditions but chilly temps. Coolest day will be Thu as 850 mb temps around 2SD below normal will translate to highs in the 60s with gusty W/NW winds. Some slight modification Fri with upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Expect numerous diurnal clouds developing both days. Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence decreases next weekend as warm frontal boundary on the edge of the midwest heat ridge approaches from the west but will be blocked from moving into the region as maritimes trof maintains NW flow aloft. Where this boundary sets up will determine if more showers and chilly temps affect SNE as a wave will likely travel along the boundary. ECMWF is most bullish with cool and wet weather next weekend, especially Sunday. GFS not as robust and a bit drier. We will probably see some unsettled weather next weekend but confidence is low. If boundary remains far enough to the south and west we could escape with a dry weekend. Temps likely remaining below normal but will depend on whether it is wet or dry. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Through 00Z...High confidence. VFR. S/SW winds with gusts up to 20 kts. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically fog prone spots. IFR at KACK in fog. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible over N/W MA and CT after 06Z. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14-15Z. Then the second beginning about 16-17Z and continuing through 03-04Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts, higher gusts in and around any TSRA. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs but brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in any afternoon/evening showers/t-storms. Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs. NW wind gusts of 25-30 knots expected during the day Thursday. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6 feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern outer waters for this possibility. Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening. These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence. Tue night into Wednesday...SW winds becoming W Tue night behind the cold front. Increasing west winds Wed with gusts 25-30 kt possible over south coastal waters. SCA seas over southern waters. Wed night into Thursday...W/NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt. SCA seas outer waters. Friday...Diminishing NW winds with seas below SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 945 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included schc pops across the area. Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern. At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday. Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west. A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a warm front. Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal per model and mos consensus/WPC. As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides a trigger. Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale storms expected during this time frame. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure centered well north of the area will swing a trough through the eastern US during the day tomorrow. Now that this morning`s cold front has moved east of the region, VFR conditions will prevail through the day. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday... .Mon Night...VFR. .Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms. .Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt. .Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt .Fri...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight. A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week. As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions likely over the Ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...24/PW SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...FEB/BC MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 716 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included schc pops across the area. Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern. At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday. Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west. A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a warm front. Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal per model and mos consensus/WPC. As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides a trigger. Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale storms expected during this time frame. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front is moving across the terminals and should push east of the region by mid morning. All the terminals have improved to VFR, except those east of NYC, where IFR cigs will be possible through 13z or so. Then, improvement to VFR is expected. Expect the VFR conditions to prevail through the day. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning and early afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday... .Mon Night...VFR. .Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms. .Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt. .Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt .Fri...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight. A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week. As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions likely over the Ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island. Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around high tide this evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...24/PW SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BC MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 124 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the region late tonight. Dry weather will overspread the area behind the front thru Monday. A low pressure system will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With main area of pcpn well to the s and e...have removed pops from the forecast overnight with the exception of Orange and western Passaic counties where a light shower associated with the actual cold frontal passage is possible. Have also added patchy fog outside of NYC with residual sfc moisture and light winds. Winds were also too high and were adjusted to better reflect current obs and trends. Rest of forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a blend of the guidance which was in good agreement. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast at that time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves across the terminals late tonight. Showers have ended with most terminals now VFR. The only exception is at KJFK AND KISP where IFR cigs have developed. Not sure how long this lasts. It may take until the front moves through in the morning for those terminals to go VFR. Also, unsure just how far these low cigs overspread. This will need to be monitored overnight. VFR conditions prevail at all terminals on Monday. SW winds under 10 kt overnight. SW winds 10-15 kt on Monday with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday... .Mon Night...VFR. .Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms. .Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt. .Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt .Fri...VFR. && .MARINE... Have cancelled the SCA as seas are well below and winds should remain below as well due to a strong sfc inversion over the waters. Winds and seas remain blw sca lvls through Tue. Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work week. Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High tide has passed and the coastal flood advsy has been allowed to expire. May need a statement on long island`s south shore bays tonight...but will address later. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 116 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross through the region overnight, ending the threat for rain showers. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 115 AM EDT, a weakening cold/occluded front was located from the western Adirondacks into south central NYS. A potent shortwave just passed across far northern NYS a few hours ago, which sparked some showers and thunderstorms across the far NW Adirondacks. Isolated showers will remain possible overnight across the far western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, which will be in closer proximity to this shortwave, and another one which will pass to the north closer to daybreak. Elsewhere, low clouds and some fog was developing across many valley areas, as well as across western New England. This will likely persist until closer to daybreak, when drier air may finally begin to mix out some of this low level moisture. Overnight low temperatures should reach the lower/mid 50s across the higher elevations, to the lower 60s in valley areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower dew points mainly in the 50s. A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from clearing out. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of precip. Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures. For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid- Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below normal. The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The TAF sites remain ahead of the cold front and as such low stratus clouds have overspread the region. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to occur at the TAF sites primarily through 08Z-09Z after which there should be enough mixing in the wake of the cold front to allow conditions to improve to VFR. VFR conditions should be in place for the entire day on Monday. West winds will be 10-15 kts with some higher gusts throughout the day on Monday with just some diurnal cu and passing high cirrus clouds. The winds will diminish during the evening hours with the cirrus clouds becoming thicker as the evening progresses. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some reports minor flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible. Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches across the area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was 1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by around 00Z/Mon and this is occurring. There will be chances for convection into the early morning hours until the passage of the occluded boundary. Unfortunately we have limited rainfall reports coming into our system this evening. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/KL SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...Frugis/11 FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US MOVES EAST ACROSS INTO THE PLAINS. ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS 850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CAUSE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CO BUT I THINK THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEREFORE I ONLY WENT WITH A 10 TO 14 POP THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A WESTERN H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US TO SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE HIGHS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12 KTS. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARGAN LONG TERM....GARGAN AVIATION...GARGAN
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 255 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 ...Updated Long Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016 Convective debris clouds embedded in the NW flow aloft will diminish through sunrise. Agree with previous forecaster that most of Tuesday will be dry for most locations. SE winds pick up noticeably today, in response to surface cyclogenesis on the Colorado Front Range. SE wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be common, helping to improve moisture quality and instability. Model guidance agrees that CAPE axis (1000-1500 J/kg GFS, 1500-2200 J/kg NAM) will reside across the NW CWA and adjoining areas late this afternoon into this evening. With the weak front washed out and the surface trough forced to our west in Colorado, convergence will be lost today. As such, despite increasing SE winds and moisture/instability, convective initiation is not likely across Kansas through 7 pm. Perhaps an isolated storm west of Dodge City through 7 pm, but confidence is low. 00z NAM offers the more likely scenario, with moisture convergence near the Palmer Divide initiating a small MCS, and tracking it into SW KS late this evening and tonight. Pop grids follow this solution, with chance/scattered coverage across the western zones toward midnight. Much higher pops may be necessary eventually from Scott City to Syracuse if the small MCS behaves as NAM suggests tonight. Inverted-V soundings and marginal boundary layer moisture, plus cold pool generation in Colorado, will make outflow winds to 50-60 mph the primary threat across the western zones tonight. Unlikely to see any hail of consequence this late in the expected convective evolution, but can`t rule out some nickels. NAM suggests residual convective showers/leftovers may continue much of the night across SW KS. Highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s, coolest NE near Hays, and flirting with 90 along the Oklahoma border. Lows Wednesday morning several degrees above normal, courtesy of convective cloud debris and S/SE flow, in the lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016 Very summer-like pattern will persist across SW KS through the long term. Hot afternoons, mild evenings, gusty south winds, and a few scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day. Astronomical summer begins June 20th, but for all practical purposes, summer begins this week. Wednesday...First 90 degree day expected finally at Dodge City. 850 mb temperatures spike enough to yield low to mid 90s Wednesday afternoon. Strong south winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts. ECMWF shows isolated evening storms W/NW of Dodge City and followed in the grids. 00z ECMWF shows little if any change in 850 temps on a daily basis, Thursday all the way through next Monday. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s will be common. Not excessive heat, just a good taste of summer. South winds and a constant feed of moisture from the south will keep lows in the mid to upper 60s. Moisture feed on persistent southerly flow will become established by Thursday, and hang around through the weekend with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is more than enough moisture to support daily crops of thunderstorms along the lee trough, and will support daily rounds of convection coming out of Colorado in the W/NW flow aloft. Coverage will remain scattered for the most part, favor the hours 4 pm through 2 am, and favor the western zones. Heat and humidity combination will support some strong to locally severe storms each day, with a marginal wind/hail threat, but large scale severe weather outbreaks are not expected given broad ridging aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016 VFR will again prevail through this TAF forecast cycle. Convective mid level debris clouds will thin overnight through sunrise Tuesday, as a small MCS dissipates over the TX panhandle. Moisture and instability will increase on Tuesday, in response to increased SE surface flow. SE wind gusts of 20-25 kts are expected after 15z Tue through sunset. Instability remains quite limited near HYS through this forecast period, so kept convection mention out of the HYS TAF. Began a mention of VCTS at GCK/DDC at 21z Tue, which will continue through the evening hours. 00z NAM shows a likely scenario, with a small convective cluster (MCS) forming over eastern Colorado by 03z Wed, and then propagating into SW KS during the 03-09z Wed time frame. Convective impacts to aviation would be most likely near/west of GCK Tuesday evening following this preferred NAM solution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 86 63 92 66 / 20 20 20 10 GCK 89 64 95 66 / 20 30 20 20 EHA 89 63 92 64 / 20 20 10 20 LBL 91 63 93 65 / 20 20 10 20 HYS 83 61 90 67 / 10 20 20 20 P28 90 64 91 69 / 10 20 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS Issued by the National Weather Topeka KS 150 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016 Northwesterly flow aloft will allow a weak cold front to sink southward to near Interstate 70 toward early this evening, with the front then moving slowly southward through South-Central/Southeast KS overnight. Peak diurnal mlcapes of 750- 1200 j/kg, weakened convective inhibition, and weak convergence along this boundary, should allow for widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into mid evening, with convective activity diminishing after sunset. Deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts and dcapes 1200-1500 j/kg could allow for a strong storm or two with gusty winds the main threat, and perhaps small hail. Weak high pressure will build into the missouri valley Tuesday, allowing for light winds, slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Will maintain low chances (20-30%) of thunderstorms Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning in central Kansas, as diurnally- initiated convection over the higher terrain of colorado/wyoming translates slowly eastward. Furthermore, 850 mb moisture transport and isentropic lift (310-315K layer) could also initiate elevated storms in Central Kansas. The old frontal boundary will lift quickly northward through the area Wednesday morning as a warm front, with lee troughing developing during the day Wednesday, continuing into Thursday. Gusty southerly winds and warming 1000-850 mb thicknesses will support temperatures climbing to 5-10 degrees above early June averages. Outside of a slight chance of morning storms Wednesay in central Kansas, these two days look dry. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016 Medium range models continue to prog upper-level ridging over the south-central CONUS Friday into Saturday, with very warm and breezy conditions, along with dry weather. The upper ridge is progged to flatten Sunday into Monday, as the main energy of an upper trough over the northwestern states shifts northeastward into south-central Canada. Gulf moisture is progged to richen ahead of a cold front which is indicated to slide southward into the Kansas region late Sunday through Monday. A 30-40% chance for thunderstorms by Monday seems plausible. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 150 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016 VFR conditons are expected through the next 24 hours. Northeast winds will gradually become east-southeast through the late morning and afternoon hours of Wednesday. Winds speeds should remain at or below 12 KTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 62 83 61 88 / 10 0 20 10 Hutchinson 58 83 61 88 / 20 0 20 10 Newton 58 81 60 87 / 20 0 20 10 ElDorado 58 81 59 86 / 10 0 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 60 83 61 88 / 10 0 10 10 Russell 56 82 60 91 / 30 10 30 20 Great Bend 58 84 62 90 / 20 10 30 20 Salina 57 81 59 88 / 20 0 20 20 McPherson 57 81 60 88 / 20 0 20 20 Coffeyville 60 81 58 85 / 10 0 10 10 Chanute 59 80 57 84 / 20 0 10 10 Iola 59 80 57 84 / 20 0 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 59 80 58 85 / 10 0 10 10 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 ...Updated Short Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016 Convective debris clouds embedded in the NW flow aloft will diminish through sunrise. Agree with previous forecaster that most of Tuesday will be dry for most locations. SE winds pick up noticeably today, in response to surface cyclogenesis on the Colorado Front Range. SE wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be common, helping to improve moisture quality and instability. Model guidance agrees that CAPE axis (1000-1500 J/kg GFS, 1500-2200 J/kg NAM) will reside across the NW CWA and adjoining areas late this afternoon into this evening. With the weak front washed out and the surface trough forced to our west in Colorado, convergence will be lost today. As such, despite increasing SE winds and moisture/instability, convective initiation is not likely across Kansas through 7 pm. Perhaps an isolated storm west of Dodge City through 7 pm, but confidence is low. 00z NAM offers the more likely scenario, with moisture convergence near the Palmer Divide initiating a small MCS, and tracking it into SW KS late this evening and tonight. Pop grids follow this solution, with chance/scattered coverage across the western zones toward midnight. Much higher pops may be necessary eventually from Scott City to Syracuse if the small MCS behaves as NAM suggests tonight. Inverted-V soundings and marginal boundary layer moisture, plus cold pool generation in Colorado, will make outflow winds to 50-60 mph the primary threat across the western zones tonight. Unlikely to see any hail of consequence this late in the expected convective evolution, but can`t rule out some nickels. NAM suggests residual convective showers/leftovers may continue much of the night across SW KS. Highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s, coolest NE near Hays, and flirting with 90 along the Oklahoma border. Lows Wednesday morning several degrees above normal, courtesy of convective cloud debris and S/SE flow, in the lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2016 Our first taste of summer weather will greet us later in the week with widespread lower to mid 90s forecast for highs beginning Wednesday. With the polar jet stream shifting way up north into Canada, the lower-mid troposphere will warm up substantially front he Intermountain West/Great Basin region all the way east to the High Plains, including southwest Kansas. A very minor disturbance will push into western Kansas through the larger scale ridge, but this feature will not have much in the way of forcing for ascent to provide any meaningful chance for widespread convective activity (Thursday). The persistent large scale ridge pattern will lead to a continuation of south winds in the 10 to 20 mph range each day Wednesday through the weekend with no major wind shift in sight (at least through the end of the weekend). We will likely see daily terrain-induced convection out west in Colorado and northern New Mexico, however the paltry mid-upper tropospheric flow will keep this activity fairly well contained. There will be a very slight chance for an occasional isolated storm along the lee trough axis, however even this convective activity should be quite limited in coverage and duration. The lower-mid 90s forecast will continue all the way through Sunday (or later?) until the next polar front makes a run at southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2016 VFR will again prevail through this TAF forecast cycle. Convective mid level debris clouds will thin overnight through sunrise Tuesday, as a small MCS dissipates over the TX panhandle. Moisture and instability will increase on Tuesday, in response to increased SE surface flow. SE wind gusts of 20-25 kts are expected after 15z Tue through sunset. Instability remains quite limited near HYS through this forecast period, so kept convection mention out of the HYS TAF. Began a mention of VCTS at GCK/DDC at 21z Tue, which will continue through the evening hours. 00z NAM shows a likely scenario, with a small convective cluster (MCS) forming over eastern Colorado by 03z Wed, and then propagating into SW KS during the 03-09z Wed time frame. Convective impacts to aviation would be most likely near/west of GCK Tuesday evening following this preferred NAM solution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 60 86 63 92 / 20 10 20 10 GCK 59 88 63 95 / 30 20 30 10 EHA 61 90 63 93 / 60 20 20 10 LBL 61 90 64 94 / 30 20 20 10 HYS 57 84 60 91 / 20 0 20 10 P28 62 89 64 91 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1107 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2016 Currently strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over the far southwest portion of the area. Building cumulus and new thunderstorms have just developed to the northeast of the above mentioned development. All this due to a surface trough draped from southwest to northeast across the forecast area with a shortwave trough and weak right rear quadrant of the jet on top of this surface feature. Hires/convective allowing guidance, especially the HRRR and Rap have caught this current activity very well. Additional development and slow movement toward the south and east will continue into the early morning hours. Made slight adjustments mainly to this evenings pop trends. Cold front moves through during the night and will be south and west of the area by the beginning of the day. East to southeast winds will increase into the breezy category. Main surface convergence lies to the west of the area. However, a rather strong shortwave trough will move in from the west late in the day. Expect thunderstorms to develop over eastern Colorado in the middle and late afternoon hours. Will once again have good low level lapse rates and directional shear. Speed shear will be a little better. So the threat of severe thunderstorms will have to be watched closely again. High temperatures will be a little cooler due to the easterly upslope flow. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2016 Tuesday evening the setup for rainfall will be very similar to today. An upper level short wave trough will move into the Tri- State area from the northwest. Mixed layer CAPE quickly becomes capped moving into East Central Colorado from the west. There may be some scattered storms to start the evening...but expect the peak storm coverage to occur during the mid evening as lift increases with both the short wave trough and the nose of the low level jet. Soundings show some elevated CAPE that is not capped during the evening over the west half of the area where the lift from the short wave trough and nose of the low level jet will be highest. Am expecting storm coverage to increase as a result through the evening. After midnight storm coverage will move northeast ahead of the low level jet for an hour or so then end as the upper level short wave trough moves south of the area. Wednesday afternoon and evening will be a repeat of Tuesday as far as the setup for storms to form. A weak surface wind convergence area will exist just west of the Tri-State area near the surface low. Overhead an upper level short wave trough will move through. Soundings indicate the surface instability will largely be capped off where the lift will be best. However there is some elevated instability present over the far western part of the area that will allow storms to form. The elevated instability will gradually shift east into the Tri-State area during the evening. The elevated instability will dissipate through the latter half of the evening as it slowly progresses eastward into Kansas. At the same time the short wave trough overhead will shift southeast out of the area. Overall do not expect storms to move very far into Kansas before moving out of the lift and elevated instability during the evening. Thursday through Monday the trend of the upper level ridge is slightly slower than yesterday...again. There will be some very low chances for rainfall through the week ahead of the ridge. Low chances for rainfall return during the weekend behind the ridge as the upper level flow turns more to the southwest. However the upper level trough moving onto the west coast is further north over the Pacific Northwest. With the trough further north...chances for rainfall for early next week are not as high due to the lift ahead of the trough focused more over the northern plains. Temperatures for Wednesday through Sunday will remain fairly constant with readings in the low to mid 90s. Monday a cold front will move through the area. The cooler air will keep highs in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2016 VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK for the remainder of tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds will increase by mid to late Tuesday morning with mixing. At KGLD...scattered thunderstorms will move out of northeast Colorado Tuesday evening associated with an upper shortwave trough. Brief gusty winds may accompany these storms. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...024 Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .UPDATE... Latest guidance indicates more sufficient boundary layer mixing than previous runs. Therefore have adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to reflect such. With weak mid levels winds at the top of the bl, no wind adjustment is needed. High res NAM and HRRR indicate even higher temperatures and lower dewpoints, however, with an overmixing bias, will stray away from that. That said, may be something to watch. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 ) AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected today/tonight, with only some thin high clouds noted. Winds today will vary from northwest to northeast at 6 to 12 mph. (46) SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night A weak cold front is pushing through the region from the north this morning. Moisture is limited, so no rain is expected. Satellite is showing some high cirrus clouds, and not much else. The front will bring another round of dry air, and this will make it feel comfortable outdoors. This air mass will warm up quickly during the day, but rapid cooling will occur at night. A northwest wind flow aloft will be noted through the near term, but a ridge of high pressure to the west will take over in the extended period. This will bring a slow warming trend. As far as temperatures today/Wednesday, readings will be a little above normal in the afternoon, and a bit below normal after dark. LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday Warm summertime conditions can be expected through the long term with high pressure aloft and at the surface. Southerly flow will bring warm Gulf air into the region and highs are generally expected to be near or a few degrees above normal. Rain chances will be slim to none through the end of the work...with the exception of any pop- up afternoon convection. Rain chances will be come more scattered nature during the weekend and into the next work week as the ridge begins to break down. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Brown Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 547 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. SFC high pressure will drop SE...just east of the state through the period...with winds transitioning to the east and SE by Wed afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold" front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below 1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result, temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast Arkansas, which lies closer in proximity to the large scale thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozarks, will stay closer to average. Conditions will be similar on Wednesday as the low and mid level ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of precipitation in the area for the period. LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday and into next week. The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week, the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 257 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday night Arkansas continues to sit in northwest flow between an amplified ridge over the rockies and east coast troughing. A weak "cold" front passing through Arkansas has brought in a reinforcing shot of relatively dry air. With precipitable water values at or below 1 inch, no rain and only a few clouds are associated with this front. The deep layer dry air, combined with sufficient insolation, has provided ample deep layer mixing. As a result, temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s for much of Arkansas. A weak wind profile throughout the highly mixed boundary layer should keep winds below 10 knots. Northeast Arkansas, which lies closer in proximatey to the large scale thermal trough, and higher elevations in the Ozakrs, will stay closer to average. Conditions will be simliar on Wednesday as the low and mid level ridge of high pressure moves overhead. As the high slides eastward, winds will become more easterly...and even have a southerly component in the western portions of the state. As a result, humidity values will be slightly higher on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few high clouds and even some cumulus will be possible. That said, pwats will still be in the lower 1 inch range and large scale subsidence will still prohibit any type of precipitation in the area for the period. && .LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday The extended forecast will start overall dry and warm into the weekend, then some chances of rain return to the forecast Sunday and into next week. The weather pattern has surface high pressure over the region with dry conditions, while the upper northwest flow gradually weakens as the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region. This will warm temperatures to above normal values late this week and over the weekend. Gradually late week and over the weekend into next week, the surface high pressure system moves east and allows a return flow back to the region. Rain chances will start in the west Sunday and into the early week, but then as the upper high pressure breaks down a bit, some shortwave energy does try to move more east and develop scattered convection for Arkansas. Some uncertainty does exist well into next week on the timing, location and amount of convection. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the 90s for much of the period, while possibly lowering Tuesday to Wednesday next due to clouds and convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 67 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 59 85 64 87 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 67 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 85 63 88 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 61 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 67 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 65 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 63 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 67 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Short Term...Brown/228 / Long Term...59
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Updated for the 18z Aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period, with winds under 10 knots and a few high clouds. Winds will gradually turn more easterly, primarily after midnight tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 ) UPDATE... Latest guidance indicates more sufficient boundary layer mixing than previous runs. Therefore have adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to reflect such. With weak mid levels winds at the top of the bl, no wind adjustment is needed. High res NAM and HRRR indicate even higher temperatures and lower dewpoints, however, with an overmixing bias, will stray away from that. That said, may be something to watch. SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night A weak cold front is pushing through the region from the north this morning. Moisture is limited, so no rain is expected. Satellite is showing some high cirrus clouds, and not much else. The front will bring another round of dry air, and this will make it feel comfortable outdoors. This air mass will warm up quickly during the day, but rapid cooling will occur at night. A northwest wind flow aloft will be noted through the near term, but a ridge of high pressure to the west will take over in the extended period. This will bring a slow warming trend. As far as temperatures today/Wednesday, readings will be a little above normal in the afternoon, and a bit below normal after dark. LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday Warm summertime conditions can be expected through the long term with high pressure aloft and at the surface. Southerly flow will bring warm Gulf air into the region and highs are generally expected to be near or a few degrees above normal. Rain chances will be slim to none through the end of the work...with the exception of any pop- up afternoon convection. Rain chances will be come more scattered nature during the weekend and into the next work week as the ridge begins to break down. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...Brown
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Sfc high pressure in control this afternoon over northeast Kansas. Overall cooler temps today with light northerly winds and readings near 80 degrees. Unfortunately this trend is temporary as the ridge axis builds eastward while a weak sfc trough develops over the western high plains. Coupled with an embedded shortwave trough entering CO per satellite imagery may trigger a few thunderstorms over western and central Kansas this evening. There is a slight chance a few of these storms may impact north central KS after midnight per the latest few runs of the HRRR and the persistence from the NAM and GFS. Confidence is lacking on the available moisture with an abundance of dry air throughout the column so will keep the slight pops at this time. Severe weather is not expected given the weak wind profiles and elevated instability up to 1000 J/KG. There may be a few showers lingering into sunrise Wednesday, but otherwise another sunny and warm afternoon. Sfc pressure gradient increases with the sfc low centered over eastern CO. Southerly winds are stronger in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph while warm air advection boosts temps back into the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 Wednesday night through Friday...Region continues to transition out of northwesterly flow as the upper ridge begins to amplify over the Central Plains. Still some indication of a weak wave moving off the Rockies and generating showers and storms over the high plains and moving eastward as the night progresses, but not highly confident these will make it this far east and have kept rain chances to less than 15 percent in the west. Temperatures start to climb into the 90s, rising a few degrees from Thursday into Friday. Dewpoints also start to climb, and overnight lows approach the 70 degree mark, with the start of a warm and muggy pattern. Friday night through Tuesday...Upper ridge is in full swing extending into the Northern Plains by the weekend. Highs in the 90s and lows near 70 continue. As waves move across the northern states, may be enough to start to move the ridge east and weaken by Sunday night and will reintroduce slight rain chances. Front still progged to drop southward into the forecast area Monday into Tuesday, with higher rain chances for that forecast period. Could also mean high temps drop back into the 80s, if front can get this far southward. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2016 VFR prevails at terminals through the period with light northerly winds veering to the southeast as sfc high pressure shifts east. Slight chance for isolated thunderstorms after 06Z to the west, with lesser chances for terminals. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prieto LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Prieto
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 311 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING , MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL. WEST OF THE CASCADES THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CHANCES ARE THAT CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WILL MOSTLY SHEAR APART BEFORE PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF A WEST- SIDE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES IN EASTERN DOUGLAS AND JACKSON COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE 10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY, AND HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE 25-30F COOLER THAN TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOSTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR CIGS DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALSO, TRW IS NEARING THE VICINITY OF KLMT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CASCADES, AND WERE MOVING ENE OVER KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, BUT MAY EXTEND BACK TO THE MARBLE AND SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY IFR FOG. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z, INCLUDING KRBG, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS BOTH NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. STORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL NEAR STORM CORES. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE SISKIYOUS NORTHWARD. A TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING MARINE AIR INTO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE COAST WITH HIGHER RECOVERIES EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AND STRONG, GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES. DESPITE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE AND MAY EVEN DROP BELOW 10% IN SOME AREAS EAST OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES IN THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. && .MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AROUND OF STEEP...WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. A QUIETER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Boise ID 349 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Daytime heating has initiated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect brief heavy rain and gusty winds with the stronger storms. Storms could be better organized this evening across Harney and Baker Counties as increased /30 kts/ 0-6 km shear overspreads East-Central Oregon ahead of an upper level trough. High precipitable waters and surface CAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/KG should favor longer-lived storms for heavy rain, strong outflow winds and possible small hail. Storms will initiate over central Oregon and propagate east-northeast into Harney/Baker Counties after 5 pm PDT. There is potential that some of these storms could go over the Cornet-Windy Ridge burn scar in Baker County so a Flash Flood Watch as been issued from 00z to 06z tonight. Wednesday, the upper level ridge re-establishes itself over the Intermountain West as the upper level trough approaches the west coast. West-Southwesterly winds will increase during the day with only a slight chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain of Southeast Oregon. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures near record. Cold frontal passage Thursday morning will shift winds to the northwest with temperatures cooling to about 5 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday...Upper level low off the southwest British Columbia coast Thursday night will sink south to just off the Washington/Oregon coast by Friday night then shift inland to Washington by Sunday. Models in good agreement with this system but differ slightly on the location of the center of the low. Models in fairly good agreement with this weather pattern but differ on location of precipitation. Thursday night and Friday forecast area will be dry under a southwesterly flow, but depending on how far south the associated trough digs could see some small pops over northern zones. Will keep the slight chance pops along our northwest border but may need to increase in later forecasts if the position of the trough changes. As the upper level low shifts inland will see an increasing chance of precipitation over northern zones but with the current weather pattern looks like southern zones will remain dry. Temperatures Friday will average 7-10 degrees above normal with temperatures cooling to 5-7 degrees below normal for the weekend as the upper level low and associated trough moves over the forecast area. Sunday night through Tuesday...The area will see a slight break Sunday night into Monday as the trough axis progresses eastward and the next upper level trough begins to dig down from off the British Columbia coastline. Temperatures will return to normal by Monday and stay this way through the period. By Tuesday afternoon the next trough pushes further south and the associated moisture starts to make its presence felt in northern Baker County and the West Central Mountains. Increased chances of precipitation by the end of the period as this trough pushes closer to the area. && .AVIATION...VFR. Scattered mid-level clouds tonight with areas of broken mid level clouds through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, decreasing after 06Z. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and wind gusts up to 45 knots. Winds aloft southwest to west 5-15 knots up through 10K feet MSL. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening ORZ062. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JA/JC AVIATION.....JA
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 247 PM PDT Tue Jun 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will shift east tonight with increasing southerly flow aloft. A few cumulus clouds are building along the Cascade crest, so a few showers or evening thunderstorms may form along the crest and move east as the southerly flow increases. A series of systems bring cooler temperatures and showers to Washington and Oregon for the rest of the week. The first one will arrive Wednesday, followed a weak front Thursday. A upper level low will move close to the Washington coast Friday, then inland Saturday. a weak front in westerly flow will move through Sunday. Another low will develop offshore early next week. Intermittent showers will develop, perhaps some thunder Saturday, and temperatures falling to near or slightly below normal. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds approaching the coast. There are also some scattered cumulus east of the Oregon Cascades. The steering flow is more southwesterly today,so any storms that form should move into Central Oregon. An upper level low near 40N/133W will bring a series of disturbances into southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. This system will bring a surface low toward our forecast area from the southwest later tonight and lift out through our area Wednesday afternoon. There may be a weak frontal boundary associated with the system. This should bring increase clouds to the forecast area late tonight and Wednesday with a push of marine clouds inland. We should see a few showers as it moves through, though QPF should be on the light side. Temperatures should drop considerably Wednesday, closer to seasonal normals inland. This will be followed by a cooler low dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska and moving into the Pacific Northwest Thursday for more showers. This system also looks to be accompanied by a front that will move onshore Thursday. Highs inland from Thursday and beyond could stay below normal into next week. We may start to see a dusting of snow in the higher Cascades Thursday. Coonfield .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)...Models continue to remain in relatively good agreement through the extended forecast showing the Pacific NW transitioning to a cooler and showery pattern under an upper level trough Thursday night through Saturday. There are slight differences in the strength and timing of the shortwaves moving through the trough but the troughy pattern will produce widespread chance pops for Friday and Saturday. Snow levels will lower towards 5000 ft for Saturday so some light accumulations in the Cascades appears likely. Didi not make any changes in Sunday because of lack of confidence in timing of the weak disturbances in westerly flow. Coonfield && .AVIATION...Mild southwesterly flow aloft will maintain VFR conditions in the interior under variable high clouds through tonight. Will see some cumulus clouds pop over the Oregon Cascades later this evening, with an isolated thunderstorm or two along the crest south of Mt Hood. Clouds in the interior increase late tonight as marine stratus surges inland, with the potential for MVFR cigs around 2500 ft Wednesday morning. Coastal status has dissipated this afternoon but expect MVFR stratus to return this evening, with IFR stratus likely tonight. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR continues the next 24 hours under variable high clouds. Clouds increase early Wednesday morning as marine stratus pushes up the Columbia River. && .MARINE...High pressure over the NE Pac will maintain gusty Northwest to north winds over the waters through this evening, stronger over north portions of the outer waters. The high will weaken tonight into Wed as low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska moves southeast and remains quasi stationary off the British Columbia coast. This will bring a shift to more westerly winds, generally 15 kt or less. Seas are generally around 5 ft today, but with shorter periods due to the gusty northerly winds. The Small Craft Advisory will be continued through 8 PM this evening for the choppy seas and gusty winds. Both winds and seas are expected to diminish late in the evening. As the new low approaches the area, winds and seas will become rather benign, with winds 15 kt or less and seas 3 to 6 ft. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds and hazardous seas until 8 PM PDT this evening for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 PM. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 215 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Night...Showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across Central Oregon...Ochoco-John Day Highlands...Southern Blue Mountains and southern Wallowa County. These storms are expected to continue to develop...expanding in areal coverage while moving off to the northeast at around 20 MPH. During the evening hours today these isolated to scattered storms are expected to push north into parts of North-Central Oregon...the Northern Blue Mountains and the immediate Blue Mountain Foothills. Any storms that do develop could produce brief heavy downpours, cloud to ground lightning, small hail and localized gusty winds. SPC continues to outline Central Oregon in a marginal risk for severe storms through the evening hours. Latest SPC meso analysis shows SB CAPE values running between 800- 1200 Joules with LIs near -3...so the atmosphere is fairly unstable. DCAPE Values are also quite high, near 1200-1300 Joules. Effective bulk shear is marginal at this time, between 20-30 Kts. based on all of this data the highest threat from these storms appears to be the potential for localized gusty winds into the evening hours. The threat for strong storms should diminish quickly after about 9-11 PM. These storms are moving steadily...so think that although brief heavy downpours will be possible most should produce under a quarter inch of rain. Otherwise heat advisories remain in effect until 9 PM this evening for the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valleys as temperatures again hover around 100 degrees here. Most of Washington (except the Blue Mountains) are expected to remain mostly clear & dry through the evening hours. The forecast area will see a brief break in the activity overnight...with just some isolated showers around and perhaps a lingering isolated thunderstorm. On Wednesday chances for showers and thunderstorms again increase as a cold front approaches the CWA. Wind shear will be much stronger...with 0-6 km bulk shear values forecast to be near 60 Kts. The key will be instability...if the atmosphere can become unstable enough then strong to severe storms will again be possible...mainly over Northeast Oregon. The SPC has this area in a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooling down on Wednesday...with highs in the 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins...with upper 60s and 70s mountains. Westerly winds will also be increasing later in the day...becoming 20-35 MPH over the Columbia Gorge, Basin and surrounding areas. This combined with low relative humidity will create hazardous fire weather conditions for parts of the area...see Fire Weather Discussion below for more details. Conditions will be generally dry later Wednesday night and Thursday morning in a southwest flow. Another upper level trough approaches Thursday afternoon and night bringing renewed chances for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms...mainly in the mountains. High temperatures fall into the 70s and lower 80s Thursday afternoon. 77 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday. An upper low will be moving across the forecast area Friday into late Saturday. This will result in mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. This system will be exiting the region early Sunday with clearing skies and warmer temps. Another upper low will be approaching the Pac NW Mon and Tue with a southwest flow aloft. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers mainly over the mountains. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s. GFS and EURO models are in fairly good agreement through the extended period. 94 && .AVIATION...18z Tafs. Satellite showing an area of cirrus moving across the region this morning along with some cumulus over central Oregon. Instability will increase today so expect cumulus to develop over the higher terrain with sct 040-080 sct-bkn 100-200 this afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected vcty RDM BDN. Winds 5-15kt. Remaining sct-bkn 100-150 overnight with winds 5-10kt. Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wed along with westerly winds. 94 && .FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warnings will be issued for the combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity (RH) Wednesday afternoon and evening in Fire Zones WA641, WA675 and OR641 which includes the Lower Columbia Basin...the Yakima Valley...and the Hanford District. The fuels in this area are primarily grass and are dry with additional curing the past several days associated with record high temps and RH values in the teens. The winds will increase during the mid afternoon and become windy by the early evening hours. Although the RH will be considerably higher than what has been recently observed...the winds should be strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warnings. The thunderstorm threat will be another fire weather concern for this evening and on Wednesday...and the lightning activity level (LAL) could be a 3-4 indicating the potential for many strikes but also moderate to heavy rain. Wister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 65 86 55 79 / 20 30 30 10 ALW 70 87 59 79 / 20 30 30 10 PSC 67 91 57 83 / 10 20 30 10 YKM 64 88 52 79 / 10 10 10 10 HRI 67 89 55 81 / 10 20 20 10 ELN 61 81 52 72 / 0 10 10 10 RDM 57 82 45 73 / 30 20 10 10 LGD 59 85 53 75 / 40 40 30 20 GCD 59 88 53 78 / 40 40 30 10 DLS 64 80 56 77 / 0 20 10 10 && .PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ641. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044. WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ641-675. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ027-028. && $$ 77/94/94/85
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 244 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Daytime heating has initiated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect brief heavy rain and gusty winds with the stronger storms. Storms could be better organized this evening across Harney and Baker Counties as increased /30 kts/ 0-6 km shear over spreads East- Central Oregon ahead of an upper level trough. High precipitable waters and surface CAPEs values between 500 and 100 J/KG should favor longer-lived storms for heavy rain, strong outflow winds and possible small hail. Storms will initiate over central Oregon and propagate east-northeast into Harney/Baker Counties after 5 pm PDT. There is potential that some of these storms could go over the Cornet- Windy Ridge burn scar in Baker County so a Flash Flood Watch as been issued from 00z to 06z tonight. Wednesday, the upper level ridge re-establishes itself over the Intermountain West as the upper level trough approaches the west coast. West- Southwesterly winds will increase during the day with only a slight chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain of Southeast Oregon. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures near record. Cold frontal passage Thursday morning will shift winds to the northwest with temperatures cooling to about 5 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday...Upper level low off the southwest British Columbia coast Thursday night will sink south to just off the Washington/Oregon coast by Friday night then shift inland to Washington by Sunday. Models in good agreement with this system but differ slightly on the location of the center of the low. Models in fairly good agreement with this weather pattern but differ on location of precipitation. Thursday night and Friday forecast area will be dry under a southwesterly flow, but depending on how far south the associated trough digs could see some small pops over northern zones. Will keep the slight chance pops along our northwest border but may need to increase in later forecasts if the position of the trough changes. As the upper level low shifts inland will see an increasing chance of precipitation over northern zones but with the current weather pattern looks like southern zones will remain dry. Temperatures Friday will average 7-10 degrees above normal with temperatures cooling to 5-7 degrees below normal for the weekend as the upper level low and associated trough moves over the forecast area. Sunday night through Tuesday...The area will see a slight break Sunday night into Monday as the trough axis progresses eastward and the next upper level trough begins to dig down from off the British Columbia coastline. Temperatures will return to normal by Monday and stay this way through the period. By Tuesday afternoon the next trough pushes further south and the associated moisture starts to make its presence felt in northern Baker County and the West Central Mountains. Increased chances of precipitation by the end of the period as this trough pushes closer to the area. && .AVIATION...VFR. Scattered mid-level clouds tonight with areas of broken mid level clouds through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, decreasing after 06Z. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and wind gusts up to 45 knots. Winds aloft southwest to west 5-15 knots up through 10K feet MSL. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening ORZ062. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JA/JC AVIATION.....JA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1007 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016 .UPDATE...Only minor adjustments to the short term forecast were made. Scaled down PoPs and pushed further west through 21z...then increased PoPs for showers and scattered thunderstorms across Central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands through 00z. Between 00-06z brought the chance/slight chance of thunderstorms further north into the Northern Blue Mountains and along the immediate Blue Mountain Foothills. SPC has parts of the area (mainly Deschutes...Crook...Wheeler and Grant Counties)in a marginal outlook for possible severe storms later today. This seems reasonable looking at the latest forecast soundings which indicate around 1000- 1500 Joules of MUCAPE, 1100-1300 Joules of DCAPE, LIs near -5, equilibrium levels near 40K FT AGL. 0-6 KM bulk shear values are only forecast to be between 15-25 KTs so this may be a limiting factor today. The latest HRRR shows convective initiation between 20- 22z over Central Oregon with the storms then moving Northeast into the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Southern Blue Mtns during the late afternoon. The HRRR is also indicating that localized gusty winds may be the bigger threat with any storms that form and this makes sense giving the relatively large DCAPE Values. Otherwise skies will remain mostly clear across far northern Oregon and much of Washington through the day with the hot weather continuing. Heat Advisories remain in effect for the Lower Columbia Basin in Oregon and Washington along with the Yakima Valley through this evening. High temperatures here will range from 99 to 104 degrees with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 60s tonight. For the surrounding lower elevations look for highs in the mid-90s to near 100 this afternoon...except low to mid 90s in Central Oregon and the Columbia Gorge. Winds will become breezy later this afternoon and evening in and around the Columbia Gorge...with westerly winds 15 to 25 MPH expected here. Elsewhere...outside of any thunderstorm impacts...winds will remain less than 15 MPH. .AVIATION...18z Tafs. Satellite showing an area of cirrus moving across the region this morning along with some cumulus over central Oregon. Instability will increase today so expect cumulus to develop over the higher terrain with sct 040-080 sct-bkn 100-200 this afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected vcty RDM BDN. Winds 5-15kt. Remaining sct-bkn 100-150 overnight with winds 5-10kt. Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wed along with westerly winds. 94 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...The upper ridge that brought the hot weather will continue one more day of very hot temperatures. However...the ridge axis will shift east a little more. This combined with an approaching trough off the coast will allow the flow to become more southwest today. As a result more moisture and instability will work its way further north into the CWA today for a greater chance and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. These storms could become strong with small hail and gusty winds. SPC has the southern portion of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms today. The heat advisory has been extended through this evening for the Lower Columbia Basin and the Yakima Valley. Temperatures in the advisory area will be at or greater than 100. Elsewhere temperatures will be in the 90s...except 80s in the mountains. On Wednesday the flow will become more southerly ahead of a cold front that will move into the Pacific Northwest. This will transport more moisture and instability further north. Wednesday will have the greatest coverage of thunderstorms. Again SPC has portions of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms...this time mainly over the northeast mountains. Will have thunderstorm wording in the chance category again with a mention of possible gusty winds and small hail from the Blue Mountain Foothills southwest to central Oregon and southward. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday than today. The cooling trend will continue on Thursday. Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will mainly be over the John Day Highlands northeast across the Blue Mountains eastward. There will be a chance of showers over central Oregon and along the Cascade east slopes on Thursday. Temperatures will be an additional 10 degrees cooler on Thursday than Wednesday. The cooling trend with showery weather will continue into the extended forecast. It will also become breezy to windy beginning Wednesday. Until then winds will be light. 88 LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday night...Overview...Friday will start a string of several days where highs will only be in the 70s, with lower 80s possible in a few locations, and upper 50s to 60s mountains. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with mid 30s to mid 40s mountains. Some higher elevation cities like Sunriver, Seneca, and Ukiah could toy with brief freezing temperatures on Saturday morning. Friday and Saturday look to be the best days for showers and/or thunderstorms across the forecast area, with the better chances over the mountains. The shower potential will continue Sunday and Monday but will be more focused over central and northeast Oregon. Each day poses a chance for breezy winds across the lower elevations, but don`t expect gusts to exceed 25-30 mph. With the weather system lingering over the area for the extended, expect partly to mostly clouds skies each day. If you plan on camping outdoors this weekend, especially in the mountains, be prepared for cold overnight lows. Synopsis...A large low pressure system just off the coast of Washington will continue to spin down to the Oregon coast by Friday evening providing relief from the hot temperatures earlier this past weekend and earlier this week, but unsettled weather for the extended. Southwest flow shifting to southerly flow on Saturday will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to most areas. Have confined the thunderstorm coverage to mainly the mountains with showers elsewhere. With the low approaching surface gradients are expected to tighten across the lower elevations and promote breezy conditions, especially in the afternoon when better mixing occurs. By early Sunday morning the low is expected to be centered over the WA/OR boarder just east of the Cascades. Due to stable conditions overnight and the coolest air aloft in place some clearing may allow for temperatures to reach freezing across the higher elevations. Expect slightly warmer temperatures on Monday as a westerly flow takes place. A slight chance of showers over the mountains will still be possible due to upslope flow and marginal instability. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 99 64 86 55 / 10 20 30 40 ALW 97 69 87 59 / 10 20 30 30 PSC 102 66 91 58 / 0 10 20 20 YKM 100 63 88 53 / 0 10 20 20 HRI 101 66 89 55 / 0 10 20 20 ELN 96 60 82 51 / 0 0 20 20 RDM 92 57 84 45 / 40 30 30 30 LGD 93 59 86 54 / 20 40 30 40 GCD 93 59 88 54 / 30 40 30 30 DLS 96 63 80 55 / 10 0 20 20 && .PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044. WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ027-028. && $$ 77/94/94