Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/06/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
841 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Thermal tied a record high of 114F degrees today, previously set
in 1957. So the deserts again baked today. However, much of the
service area was not as hot compared to previous days, due to
stronger modified onshore wind flow from the Pacific. All heat
headlines have been allowed to expire. Marine layer stratus is
forecast to push further inland overnight...some 20+ miles. Fog is
again possible, especially over the inland valleys. No significant
changes were made to the forecast this evening. See previous
discussion below for further forecast details. /Gregoria
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system moving across California and into the
Great Basin, will spread cooling inland through Monday. It will be
slightly warmer inland again midweek, then cooler into next weekend
as a stronger low pressure trough develops over the West. Areas of
night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog will spread
farther into the valleys Monday into Tuesday...then again during the
latter part of the week, with slow afternoon clearing near the
beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Low pressure aloft is suppressing the ridge over the SW, forcing
stronger onshore flow and building the marine layer inland. The
low will weaken as it drifts toward the Rockies, allowing the
ridge to rebuild over Socal. The ridge will prop up thickness
values once again over the region midweek, which will also support
a well developed, seasonal, thermal low over the Lower Colorado
River Valley. So while the deserts will get quite hot again, the
marine layer will hold fast west of the mts, keeping daytime
temperatures within 5 to 10 degrees F of average for early June. A
strong inversion may hold some of the stratus near the beaches
into the afternoons.
For the latter half of the week, A larger and deeper low pressure
trough will develop across the West. The 12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF
operational runs all show this feature peaking over Socal next
Sunday morning. This should drive the marine stratus onto the lower
coastal slopes over the weekend, and there will likely be some
patchy drizzle at times with the depth of the moist layer reaching
or exceeding 4000 feet. Expect daytime highs to be from 5 to 15
degrees below average.
&&
.AVIATION...
050300Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds remain over the
nearshore waters this evening with bases around 1000 ft MSL. Low
clouds with bases 1000-1500 ft MSL will move into the coastal
airports after 05Z this evening, spreading about 20-25 mi inland
overnight. Expect areas of fog with visibility 1-3 miles on the
higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and fog could impact KONT between
11-14Z Mon morning, but confidence is moderate at best.
Expect clearing inland between 16Z and 18Z Mon, and partial clearing
to the coast between 18 and 20z Mon. With the marine inversion a
little taller yet by Monday night, coastal stratus will re-develop
Monday evening, likely after 02z, with bases a little higher,
perhaps 1200-2000 ft MSL.
Mountains/Deserts...SCT clouds at or above 15000 ft MSL with
unrestricted visibility through Monday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
800 PM...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...Brotherton
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
835 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.UPDATE...
The upper low remains over Northwest Nevada this evening, but
thunderstorms have waned. Only a few showers remain so will be
updating to remove any thunder for the remainder of the evening.
With the upper low also moving slowly east, a few showers are
possible overnight near the Oregon border where some deformation
on the northwest side of the low is occurring. As a result, have
also gradually trimmed the showers south of a Susanville-Gerlach
line overnight. Updates out. Wallmann
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms
through Monday with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain
possible. Above average temperatures expected through Tuesday,
with breezy and cooler conditions for second half of the week as
low pressure moves into the West.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 152 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Low pressure is currently right over our area, evident on radar
and satellite imagery with cyclonic flow centered around the
Reno-Tahoe area. Temperatures are about 10 degrees cooler today,
although with the cold pool overhead we have unstable conditions.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and into this evening. The greatest thunderstorm
coverage will be north of Interstate 80 today with a few isolated
storms south of I-80. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph and brief
heavy rainfall is possible.
By Monday, the low pressure pushes into eastern NV, allowing for
the ridge to start building back from the west. Unstable
conditions will remain over the region with temperatures up
several degrees from Sunday. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop again in the afternoon and evening,
especially in the Sierra with scattered coverage north of Tahoe.
On Tuesday, the ridge builds overhead with warming temperatures
aloft. This will likely cap convective activity from developing
on Tuesday, although there remains a very slight chance that we
could see an isolated storm in the afternoon. Zephyr west winds
return on Tuesday as well, with wind gusts around 20-30 mph. Hoon
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
No changes were made to the forecast for next week. Trough is still
on track to move into the western U.S. and bring a cooling trend
along with windy conditions. Winds gusts will be between 30 to 40
mph for Wednesday through Friday.
There are still minor differences in tracking of the closed low as
it is moves into the Pacific Northwest, so there is still some
uncertainty with the chances for precipitation across the
Nevada/Oregon border. The leading shortwave pushes through the
region on Friday with limited chances for precipitation across far
northern Washoe county, but as the main trough axis moves through
the Sierra and western Nevada overnight Saturday we could see some
showers across northern Lassen and Washoe counties. The chances
for precipitation as relatively low for now, since the model
simulations still show some small differences. Overall, gusty
winds appear to be the main forecast concern for now. The gusty
winds and dry conditions may lead to increased fire danger as we
go into the end of next week. Weishahn
AVIATION...
Convection will continue to build this afternoon, especially with
increasing instability from surface heating. The main threat will be
gusty outflow surface winds to 40 kts. Sierra terminals will have
the highest probability for thunderstorms today, but generally it
looks like there is about a 20% chance of lightning at terminals
for the rest of western Nevada. Weishahn
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
420 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm to Hot weather through Monday, with slight cooling
afterwards. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible through
Monday...mainly over the mountains with a slight chance for some
storms over the Northern Sacramento Valley this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure area is now centered over Northern Eastern
California and Western Nevada. The HRRR indicates that shower and
thunderstorm activity will increase over the Southern Cascades and
far Northern Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening. The storms
look like they may be capable of producing strong winds, heavy
rain and hail. Isolated activity south of I-80 is expected to
dissipate early this evening with the main focus continuing over
the north. The HRRR model is indicating some possible activity
rotating around the low and into the Northern Sacramento Valley
this evening so have included slight chance mention in the
forecast.
As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture
that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional
thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than what
will happen this afternoon and later this evening. The profiles on
Monday look better for producing larger hail on Monday than
today. The Northern Sacramento Valley looks like it will be
warmer on Monday with highs around 102. Further south highs should
be in the mid to upper 90s with the delta warming up into the
upper 80s.
Greater cooling is expected Tuesday and Wednesday and dry weather
as a deep trough of low pressure develops off the coast and
replaces the high pressure ridge over the area with cyclonic flow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
The consensus of the model forecasts continue to indicate an
upper level trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday through Saturday. This disturbance will bring
cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in the valley and
60s to 70s in the foothills and higher elevations.
Disagreements in the models still exist between whether the upper
level system will translate to showers and thunderstorms for the
northern portions of the valley and mountains. The ECMWF has now
emerged as the model most aggressive with bringing precipitation,
with the GFS now backing off on precipitation chances. Due to the
consistency of the progression of the upper level low that should
clip the northern most portions of the forecast area, official
forecast now includes some slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms for Friday afternoon through Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light wind
shifts are expected through the forecast period.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over the
northern portions of the mountains and valley, which may affect
KRDD. Developing storms could cause erratic wind shifts and gusts
and frequent lightning. Storms may also affect KRBL, but
confidence is lower at this time and placed a vicinity mention in
the TAF. Storms should dissipate after 6z.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region late tonight. Dry weather will
overspread the area behind the front thru Monday. A low pressure
system will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through
Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Updated for timing of the showers and isolated thunderstorms
exiting the eastern portions of the CWA at 01z, ahead of a cold
front moving into central upstate New York and central
Pennsylvania.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e
overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a
blend of the guidance which was in good agreement.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of
shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates
through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights
will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and
Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance
in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift
into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with
cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high
builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front
moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into
Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the
front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into
Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the
shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast
at that time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals tonight.
Line of thunderstorms has moved east of the city terminals and
will continue progressing east over the next few hours. The line
should be east of KGON around 01z. Showers linger behind the line
for a few hours before ending.
Flight categories should settle around MVFR for a few hours this
evening away from city terminals before improving to VFR after
03Z. VFR then prevails through the overnight. There is a low
chance for MVFR or possibly IFR, especially at KSWF and KHPN to
redevelop overnight. KGON is likely to see LIFR continue through
the overnight.
VFR conditions at all terminals on Monday.
Winds will settle to the SW this evening around 10 kt. SW winds
10-15 kt on Monday with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas at sca lvls thru Mon on the ocean. Winds mrgnl
elsewhere thru the period. 5 ft seas may linger on the ern ocean
Mon ngt. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Tue.
Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a
northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to
increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more
likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts
continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the
waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is possible across
eastern Long Island and the eastern half south southern
Connecticut this evening.
Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or
two of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work
week. Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A few locations reached minor coastal flooding benchmarks last
night. With stronger winds today, coastal flooding is expected to
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or just exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however (Freeport
Gauge), and more likely to occur along the south shore back bays
of Nassau county. A coastal flood advisory remains for this
evening`s high tide cycle for the south shore back bays, and the
lower portion of NY Harbor.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will bring stormy wx to the region this eve. Dry wx
will then overspread the area behind the front thru Mon. Low
pressure will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through
Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Moist airmass in place with pws around 2 inches. NAM seems to have
an accurate depiction based on the 12z sounding. Warm front at 20z
was into ncntrl NJ per msas analysis...so it seems likely the NAM
will verify and the warm sector will get into at least the swrn
portion of the cwa...resulting in an increased svr threat.
As a result...a svr watch has been issued til 10pm for the most
favorable areas. If the warm sector advances sufficiently newd
this eve...the watch may be expanded. Enhanced svr wording does
remain in the fcst for these areas.
Wrt the svr risk...main threat attm is damaging winds...but an
isold tor cannot be ruled out as the cwa will be in the prime llvl
shear area invof the warm front. Limiting factor may be a lack of
high cape.
A low flash flood threat does exist as well...please see the hydro
section.
Pcpn looks to end by around midnight most areas...with rapid
clearing as evidenced by water vapor thereafter.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e
overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a
blend of the guidance which was in good agreement.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of
shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates
through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights
will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and
Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance
in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift
into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with
cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high
builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front
moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into
Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the
front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into
Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the
shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast
at that time.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals tonight.
Line of thunderstorms has moved east of the city terminals and
will continue progressing east over the next few hours. The line
should be east of KGON around 01z. Showers linger behind the line
for a few hours before ending.
Flight categories should settle around MVFR for a few hours this
evening at city terminals, KSWF, and KHPN before improving to VFR
after 02-03Z. VFR then prevails through the overnight. There is a
low chance for MVFR or possibly IFR, especially at KSWF and KHPN.
Improving conditions to VFR also expected at KISP and KBDR 04-06z.
KGON is likely to see LIFR conditions overnight.
VFR conditions at all terminals on Monday.
Winds will settle to the SW this evening around 10 kt. SW winds
10-15 kt on Monday with gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas at sca lvls thru Mon on the ocean. Winds mrgnl
elsewhere thru the period. 5 ft seas may linger on the ern ocean
Mon ngt. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Tue.
Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a
northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to
increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more
likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts
continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the
waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High pw will allow for locally hvy rain into tngt. Although basin
avg pcpn of around 1 inch is expected...locally higher amts are
likely. Rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour possible...but
ely storm motion of 10-15 kt should limit the potential for
training and therefore flash flooding.
Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or two
of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work week.
Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A few locations reached minor coastal flooding benchmarks last
night. With stronger winds today, coastal flooding is expected to
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or just exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however (Freeport
Gauge), and more likely to occur along the south shore back bays
of Nassau county. Will include the south shore back bays, and the
lower portion of NY Harbor in a coastal flood advisory for this
evenings high tide cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The moderate to heavy will move off to our east this evening,
however chances for showers will linger into the early morning
hours until the passage of the low pressure system`s cold front.
Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably warm temperatures.
A cold front will cross the region Tuesday triggering some storms
and ushering in a cool airmass into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Approaching low pressure system will occlude as it moves across
the region this evening as the negatively tilted upper trough
swings through. Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some
reports minor flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
possible. Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches
across the area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY
sounding was 1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR
has been consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by
around 00Z/Mon. The convection ahead of the cold front has weaken
as it moves eastward across western NY/PA. Have adjusted pops and
removed any mention of thunderstorms from the forecast. The
occluded boundary is expected to cross the region late this
evening into the early morning hours. Lows tonight will drop into
the mid 50s to mid 60s with dew points lowering especially across
the northwest portion of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through
Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be
between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy
conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower
dew points mainly in the 50s.
A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and
strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the
Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is
expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region
Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany
its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during
the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid
40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short
wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from
clearing out.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much
instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring
perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately
followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high
pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the
greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for
the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of
precip.
Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could
produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal
temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit
instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the
only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On
Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further
south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva
Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures.
For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from
the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid-
Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the
remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with
highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below
normal.
The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as
much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern
Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much
temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the
nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions should bounce between VFR to MVFR through 20 or
21Z until another round of steadier and heavier rain showers
associated with the cold front comes through the TAF sites. There
could even be some thunder, but not enough confident in its timing
or extent to include just now. However, another round of IFR
conditions look to occur for all sites for Sunday evening,
generally in the 21Z/Sunday - 03Z/Monday time frame.
After roughly 03Z/Monday when the front and heavier showers end,
there could be a brief window where conditions improve to
VFR/MVFR. However, with abundant low level moisture remaining in
place, the potential for low CIGS and/or fog will develop after
04Z/Monday, with IFR/LIFR possible. Conditions improve again to
VFR by mid to late morning Monday with some sct-bkn clouds around
050 ft msl.
S to SE winds will continue to 8-15 KT with some gusts of 25 KT
or higher possible, especially at KALB. Winds should then shift
into the southwest to west as the front moves across this evening
with speeds of 5-10 KT. Southwest to west winds will then continue
overnight at generally less than 8 KT. On Monday, a west wind
increases to 10 to 20 kts.
Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any
thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its
associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding
of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the
heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably
warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some reports minor
flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches across the
area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was
1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been
consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by around
00Z/Mon and this is occurring. There will be chances for convection
into the early morning hours until the passage of the occluded
boundary. Unfortunately we have limited rainfall reports coming
into our system this evening.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region late tonight. Dry weather will
overspread the area behind the front thru Monday. A low pressure
system will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through
Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With main area of pcpn well to the s and e...have removed pops
from the forecast overnight with the exception of Orange and
western Passaic counties where a light shower associated with the
actual cold frontal passage is possible. Have also added patchy
fog outside of NYC with residual sfc moisture and light winds.
Winds were also too high and were adjusted to better reflect
current obs and trends. Rest of forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e
overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a
blend of the guidance which was in good agreement.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of
shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates
through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights
will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and
Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance
in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift
into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with
cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high
builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front
moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into
Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the
front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into
Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the
shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast
at that time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals late tonight.
Showers have ended with most terminals now VFR. The only exception
is at KJFK AND KISP where IFR cigs have developed. Not sure how
long this lasts. It may take until the front moves through in the
morning for those terminals to go VFR. Also, unsure just how far
these low cigs overspread. This will need to be monitored
overnight.
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals on Monday.
SW winds under 10 kt overnight. SW winds 10-15 kt on Monday with
gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Have cancelled the SCA as seas are well below and winds should
remain below as well due to a strong sfc inversion over the
waters. Winds and seas remain blw sca lvls through Tue.
Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a
northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to
increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more
likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts
continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the
waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or
two of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work
week. Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tide has passed and the coastal flood advsy has been allowed
to expire. May need a statement on long island`s south shore bays
tonight...but will address later.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
116 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross through the region overnight, ending the
threat for rain showers. Monday will be fair and breezy with
seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region
Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into
the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 115 AM EDT, a weakening cold/occluded front was located
from the western Adirondacks into south central NYS. A potent
shortwave just passed across far northern NYS a few hours ago,
which sparked some showers and thunderstorms across the far NW
Adirondacks. Isolated showers will remain possible overnight
across the far western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley,
which will be in closer proximity to this shortwave, and another
one which will pass to the north closer to daybreak.
Elsewhere, low clouds and some fog was developing across many
valley areas, as well as across western New England. This will
likely persist until closer to daybreak, when drier air may
finally begin to mix out some of this low level moisture.
Overnight low temperatures should reach the lower/mid 50s across
the higher elevations, to the lower 60s in valley areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through
Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be
between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy
conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower
dew points mainly in the 50s.
A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and
strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the
Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is
expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region
Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany
its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during
the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid
40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short
wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from
clearing out.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much
instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring
perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately
followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high
pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the
greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for
the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of
precip.
Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could
produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal
temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit
instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the
only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On
Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further
south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva
Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures.
For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from
the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid-
Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the
remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with
highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below
normal.
The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as
much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern
Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much
temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the
nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The TAF sites remain ahead of the cold front and as such low
stratus clouds have overspread the region. Expect IFR/LIFR
conditions to occur at the TAF sites primarily through 08Z-09Z
after which there should be enough mixing in the wake of the cold
front to allow conditions to improve to VFR.
VFR conditions should be in place for the entire day on Monday.
West winds will be 10-15 kts with some higher gusts throughout the
day on Monday with just some diurnal cu and passing high cirrus
clouds. The winds will diminish during the evening hours with the
cirrus clouds becoming thicker as the evening progresses.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its
associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding
of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the
heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably
warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some reports minor
flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches across the
area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was
1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been
consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by around
00Z/Mon and this is occurring. There will be chances for convection
into the early morning hours until the passage of the occluded
boundary. Unfortunately we have limited rainfall reports coming
into our system this evening.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Frugis/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low
pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south
through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system
passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec
today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold
front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog
will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm
weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield
highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough
approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper
jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be
mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is
indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included
schc pops across the area.
Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in
se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the
aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada
remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the
base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The
closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving
way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and
across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to
the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern.
At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the
vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is
associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low
remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west.
A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a
warm front.
Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal
per model and mos consensus/WPC.
As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday
evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides
a trigger.
Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure
approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale
storms expected during this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure centered well north of the area will swing a trough
through the eastern US during the day tomorrow.
Now that this morning`s cold front has moved east of the region,
VFR conditions will prevail through the day.
SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in
the late morning and afternoon.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through
Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting
SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight.
A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week
as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian
maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure
gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week.
As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday
night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions
likely over the Ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may
produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts
expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor
coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore
bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast
New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island.
Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around
high tide this evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...24/PW
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...FEB/BC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low
pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south
through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system
passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec
today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold
front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog
will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm
weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield
highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough
approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper
jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be
mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is
indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included
schc pops across the area.
Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in
se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the
aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada
remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the
base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The
closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving
way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and
across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to
the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern.
At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the
vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is
associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low
remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west.
A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a
warm front.
Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal
per model and mos consensus/WPC.
As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday
evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides
a trigger.
Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure
approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale
storms expected during this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is moving across the terminals and should push east
of the region by mid morning.
All the terminals have improved to VFR, except those east of NYC,
where IFR cigs will be possible through 13z or so. Then,
improvement to VFR is expected. Expect the VFR conditions to prevail
through the day.
SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in
the late morning and afternoon.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through
Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting
SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight.
A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week
as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian
maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure
gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week.
As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday
night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions
likely over the Ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may
produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts
expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor
coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore
bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast
New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island.
Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around
high tide this evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...24/PW
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region late tonight. Dry weather will
overspread the area behind the front thru Monday. A low pressure
system will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through
Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With main area of pcpn well to the s and e...have removed pops
from the forecast overnight with the exception of Orange and
western Passaic counties where a light shower associated with the
actual cold frontal passage is possible. Have also added patchy
fog outside of NYC with residual sfc moisture and light winds.
Winds were also too high and were adjusted to better reflect
current obs and trends. Rest of forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e
overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a
blend of the guidance which was in good agreement.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of
shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates
through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights
will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and
Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance
in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift
into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with
cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high
builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front
moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into
Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the
front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into
Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the
shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast
at that time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals late tonight.
Showers have ended with most terminals now VFR. The only exception
is at KJFK AND KISP where IFR cigs have developed. Not sure how
long this lasts. It may take until the front moves through in the
morning for those terminals to go VFR. Also, unsure just how far
these low cigs overspread. This will need to be monitored
overnight.
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals on Monday.
SW winds under 10 kt overnight. SW winds 10-15 kt on Monday with
gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Have cancelled the SCA as seas are well below and winds should
remain below as well due to a strong sfc inversion over the
waters. Winds and seas remain blw sca lvls through Tue.
Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a
northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to
increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more
likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts
continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the
waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or
two of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work
week. Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tide has passed and the coastal flood advsy has been allowed
to expire. May need a statement on long island`s south shore bays
tonight...but will address later.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
116 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross through the region overnight, ending the
threat for rain showers. Monday will be fair and breezy with
seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region
Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into
the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 115 AM EDT, a weakening cold/occluded front was located
from the western Adirondacks into south central NYS. A potent
shortwave just passed across far northern NYS a few hours ago,
which sparked some showers and thunderstorms across the far NW
Adirondacks. Isolated showers will remain possible overnight
across the far western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley,
which will be in closer proximity to this shortwave, and another
one which will pass to the north closer to daybreak.
Elsewhere, low clouds and some fog was developing across many
valley areas, as well as across western New England. This will
likely persist until closer to daybreak, when drier air may
finally begin to mix out some of this low level moisture.
Overnight low temperatures should reach the lower/mid 50s across
the higher elevations, to the lower 60s in valley areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through
Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be
between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy
conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower
dew points mainly in the 50s.
A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and
strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the
Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is
expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region
Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany
its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during
the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid
40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short
wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from
clearing out.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much
instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring
perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately
followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high
pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the
greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for
the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of
precip.
Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could
produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal
temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit
instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the
only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On
Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further
south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva
Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures.
For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from
the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid-
Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the
remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with
highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below
normal.
The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as
much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern
Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much
temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the
nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The TAF sites remain ahead of the cold front and as such low
stratus clouds have overspread the region. Expect IFR/LIFR
conditions to occur at the TAF sites primarily through 08Z-09Z
after which there should be enough mixing in the wake of the cold
front to allow conditions to improve to VFR.
VFR conditions should be in place for the entire day on Monday.
West winds will be 10-15 kts with some higher gusts throughout the
day on Monday with just some diurnal cu and passing high cirrus
clouds. The winds will diminish during the evening hours with the
cirrus clouds becoming thicker as the evening progresses.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its
associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding
of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the
heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably
warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some reports minor
flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches across the
area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was
1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been
consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by around
00Z/Mon and this is occurring. There will be chances for convection
into the early morning hours until the passage of the occluded
boundary. Unfortunately we have limited rainfall reports coming
into our system this evening.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Frugis/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
The center of a longer wave length upper trough was located across
Ontario, Canada, with a broad upper level ridge across the northwest
US and western Canada.
A shorter wave length upper level trough will dig southeast from
eastern ND, southeast into the mid MS river valley Tonight. The low-
level CAA across the northern and central plains will help to push a
weak surface front southward across the CWA during the mid and late
afternoon hours.
Most numerical models show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front across the northern counties of the CWA
after 2 PM and then redeveloping southward along the surface front
through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Most of the stronger
ascent ahead of the H5 trough will be located across the Midwest but
the southern extent of the H5 trough may provide some additional
lift, though most of the ascent will occur due to surface
convergence ahead of the front. The RAP model only shows a few
isolated showers developing along the NE border during the afternoon
hours and does not forecast any QPF farther south along the surface
front through the afternoon and evening hours. I`ll keep at least a
20 percent chance for thunderstorms across CWA during the afternoon
hours and for the southern counties during the early evening hours.
Surface heating combined with residual moisture ahead of the
surface front will allow MLCAPES to reach 800 to 1400 j/kg. 500mb
northwesterly flow at 30 to 45 KTS across eastern KS will result
in 0-6 KM effective shear of 30 to 40 KTS during the afternoon
hours. Given the above instability and vertical shear parameters,
the environment will become favorable for any isolated
thunderstorms that develops ahead of the front to be strong to
severe. The primary hazards would be hail to the size of quarters
to half dollars and 50 to 60 MPH wind gusts. The storms ahead of
the front across the southern counties of the CWA should weaken
towards sunset.
During the late evening hours the surface cold front will shift
southeast of the CWA and any lingering showers will move southeast
of the CWA. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
Late Tuesday through Thursday, have only made minor changes as the
overall pattern continues to look the same as it has the past
several days. The mean trough over the Eastern CONUS will slowly
lift to the northeast and the mean ridge axis from the west will get
pushed east over the Central Plains as another Pacific system and
trough dig into the western CONUS. This leaves mostly a dry
atmosphere over northeastern Kansas and weak forcing at best. Slight
chances of a weak elevated thunderstorm mainly Wednesday morning
have been kept in the western counties of the forecast area. The
trend has been to decrease POPs heading into Thursday and most
convection staying over portions of the Rockies convectively induced
by daytime heating. Lee trough tries to set up, but is slow to do
so with relatively weak flow pattern over the Rockies into the
Central Plains, so confidence is low at this point for morning
showers and storms on Thursday. Only have very low end chance POPs
and going with a mainly dry forecast.
Into the weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms look at
least a little better into the late Saturday and Sunday time
frames. The overall ridge begins to break down as it advects east
and several weak shortwaves flow over the Rockies. As these kick
out they attempt to develop lee-side lows, but again weak forcing
doesn`t seem to support much development and a fairly strong EML
is likely to be in place with again moisture return in question.
With most of the modified polar jet remaining to the north more
near the US/Canadian border, have not increased POPs more than
low-end slight chance. High temperatures by late week will reach
into the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
A weak front will move southward across the terminals late this
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop around
the terminals after 21Z. This evening the front will push south
of the terminals bringing an end to the slight thunderstorm
chance. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight and again Tuesday
afternoon as a cold front moves through southern New England. Another
disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening followed by dry but cool
conditions Thursday and Friday. More unsettled weather is possible
next weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday
through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM Update...Southwesterly to westerly winds are blowing across the
area, strong enough to keep sea breezes offshore. This has allowed
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s across much of
southern New England. Diurnal cumulus clouds are resulting in partly
to mostly cloudy skies over the area.
Tonight...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with upper low in Quebec
and trough axis through the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, two low
level jets will develop, first along the south coast into SE
MA/RI, the second into W MA/CT. There is enough moisture in the
region that coupled with the instability associated with the
incoming cold pool aloft, could produce some showers and even
thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Showalter indices drop
below 0 and total totals increase above 50 through the night. In
addition, the 0-6km shear increases to above 50 kts, so some
organized activity is possible. Have chance PoPs as activity will
be somewhat scattered. Expect this activity to continue into mid-
morning Tuesday, thus potentially impacting the chance for
convection later in the day Tuesday.
Temperature wise, another mild night is expected, particularly as
clouds start to build into the region. Expect low temperatures in
the lower 60s for much of the area, with a few readings in the mid
to upper 50s across western Massachusetts.
Finally, tides are astronomically high tonight, with a high tide of
12.2 at Boston. Despite offshore winds, because the tides are so
high, there may be areas of minor splashover along the east coast of
Massachusetts around the time of high tide (around midnight).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon***
Tuesday...With an upper low continuing to circulate in Quebec,
cyclonic flow will remain the rule over southern New England. This
will kick a shortwave around the base of the upper trough, pushing a
cold front extending from low pressure in Quebec will move into
southern New England during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms that fire on the low level jet during the
early morning hours will dissipate by mid-morning. Much of what
occurs during the afternoon will depend on how quickly the early
morning convection dissipates and how we destabilize through the
rest of the morning.
At this point, models are indicating that we will be able to
destabilize enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. All the short range models have
surface based CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. This, of
course, is dependent on skies clearing enough for that to
develop. In addition, a cold pool aloft starts to move over
southern New England resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates.
Finally, the generally unidirectional 0-6km shear values are at or
above 50 kts. Taken altogether, this means that thunderstorms will
not only be able to sustain themselves, but that a few may become
strong to severe supercell thunderstorms. The primary risk with
these storms will be hail (thanks to the cold pool aloft) and
strong to damaging wind gusts. Despite how favorable all of this
looks for severe weather, there is a limiting factor and that is
the entrainment of some dry air at the mid to upper levels which
could inhibit updraft development. Even so, have enough confidence
to include small hail and gusty winds in the wording.
Tuesday night...Any convection that occurs during the afternoon and
evening will continue to move eastward and off the coast Tuesday
night. Expect the bulk of the activity to be offshore by around
midnight along with the cold front. Drier air moving in, along with
brief shortwave ridging, will result in rapid clearing and cooler
temperatures. Lows expected to be in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Cooler Wed with scattered afternoon/evening showers/t-storms
* Mainly dry but unseasonably cool Thu/Fri
* Below normal temps continue next weekend and it may become
unsettled but that remains uncertain
Overview...
Midwest ridge and downstream trof across northeast and maritimes
will be the theme of the extended period. This will result in below
normal temps into the weekend. Anomalous trof will bring sct
showers/t-storms Wed, then mainly dry for the end of the week as the
trof lifts to the north. However, building ridge into the upper
midwest will result in trof reloading over the maritimes this
weekend with baroclinic zone setting up west and south of New Eng.
This may result in some unsettled weather this weekend but will
depend on where frontal boundary sets up.
Details...
Wednesday...
Rather potent mid level trof and shortwave moves into SNE during the
afternoon. Heights 3-4SD below normal with significant cooling aloft
as 500 mb temps drop to near -24C. This is quite impressive and mid
level lapse rates increase to around 7 C/km with total totals into
the mid 50s in response to the cooling aloft. This combined with
increasing moisture in the column and strong QG forcing will yield
sct-numerous showers and a few t-storms, especially in the afternoon
and early evening as the trof axis and core of the coldest air aloft
will be over New Eng at 00z. Models are even generating some
marginal SBCAPES. High confidence of at least sct showers and a few
t-storms Wed afternoon. Certainly the potential for small hail given
the anomalous cold temps aloft, and gusty winds will also be
possible as soundings show inverted V profile developing. Highs
should reach 70-75 in eastern MA/RI with mid/upper 60s interior high
terrain with morning sunshine before clouds increase during the
afternoon.
Thursday and Friday...
NW flow regime will result in mainly dry conditions but chilly
temps. Coolest day will be Thu as 850 mb temps around 2SD below
normal will translate to highs in the 60s with gusty W/NW winds.
Some slight modification Fri with upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows
will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Expect numerous diurnal clouds
developing both days.
Saturday through Sunday...
Forecast confidence decreases next weekend as warm frontal boundary
on the edge of the midwest heat ridge approaches from the west but
will be blocked from moving into the region as maritimes trof
maintains NW flow aloft. Where this boundary sets up will determine
if more showers and chilly temps affect SNE as a wave will likely
travel along the boundary. ECMWF is most bullish with cool and wet
weather next weekend, especially Sunday. GFS not as robust and a bit
drier. We will probably see some unsettled weather next weekend but
confidence is low. If boundary remains far enough to the south and
west we could escape with a dry weekend. Temps likely remaining
below normal but will depend on whether it is wet or dry.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
Through 00Z...High confidence. VFR. S/SW winds with gusts up to
20 kts.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR in typically
fog prone spots. IFR at KACK in fog. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA possible
over N/W MA and CT after 06Z.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Two
batches of SCT SHRA/TSRA. The first through 14-15Z. Then the
second beginning about 16-17Z and continuing through 03-04Z.
TEMPO MVFR/IFR possible. Lower confidence concerning whether
storms will be strong or severe. SW winds gust up to 20 kts,
higher gusts in and around any TSRA.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...A slight chance of SCT SHRA/TSRA expected after 08Z
Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs but brief MVFR/IFR
conditions possible in any afternoon/evening showers/t-storms.
Thursday and Friday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs. NW wind
gusts of 25-30 knots expected during the day Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
High confidence. Winds should remain below small craft criteria
throughout the period. Seas are a bit trickier as they ebb and
flow between a cold frontal passage Tuesday night and swell from
Tropical Storm Colin bring seas on the outer waters up to 5 to 6
feet. Small craft advisories are in place for the southeastern
outer waters for this possibility.
Other concern for the waters will be the possibility of strong
thunderstorms moving over the waters Tuesday afternoon and evening.
These may result in hail and strong winds and limit visibilities at
times.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High confidence.
Tue night into Wednesday...SW winds becoming W Tue night behind the
cold front. Increasing west winds Wed with gusts 25-30 kt possible
over south coastal waters. SCA seas over southern waters.
Wed night into Thursday...W/NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt. SCA seas
outer waters.
Friday...Diminishing NW winds with seas below SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low
pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south
through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system
passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec
today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold
front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog
will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm
weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield
highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough
approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper
jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be
mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is
indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included
schc pops across the area.
Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in
se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the
aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada
remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the
base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The
closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving
way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and
across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to
the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern.
At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the
vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is
associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low
remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west.
A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a
warm front.
Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal
per model and mos consensus/WPC.
As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday
evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides
a trigger.
Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure
approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale
storms expected during this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure centered well north of the area will swing a trough
through the eastern US during the day tomorrow.
Now that this morning`s cold front has moved east of the region,
VFR conditions will prevail through the day.
SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in
the late morning and afternoon.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through
Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting
SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight.
A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week
as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian
maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure
gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week.
As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday
night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions
likely over the Ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may
produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts
expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor
coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore
bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast
New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island.
Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around
high tide this evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...24/PW
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...FEB/BC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low
pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south
through the mid to late week period. Another low pressure system
passes Saturday, tracking east Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A vortex will move slowly from southeast Ontario into Quebec
today with a trough remaining over the eastern US. As a cold
front moves through this morning, any patchy low clouds and fog
will scour out per latest visible pics. Dry, sunny and warm
weather will prevail. Mixing to between h85 and h8 should yield
highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Clouds will increase this evening as a shortwave trough
approaches. The area will be in the entrance region of the upper
jet so there could be a few showers around tonight. It may be
mainly confined to areas n and w of NYC...but some guidance is
indicating isold showers across the entire cwa so have included
schc pops across the area.
Another shortwave approaches for tue as parent low pres remains in
se Canada. The associated cold front moves through during the
aftn/eve with a better chc for showers and tstms.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z model suite indicates closed upper low over southeast Canada
remains nearly stationary as a potent shortwave pivots around the
base of this low, traversing across the northeast Wednesday. The
closed low then tracks slightly south and east by Thursday, giving
way to upstream ridge. Another shortwave moves out of Canada and
across the northeast for the weekend as ridge axis remains well to
the west through the weekend in this blocked pattern.
At the surface, deep low pressure remains well to the north in the
vicinity of the Canadian maritimes, as next trough that is
associated with the potent shortwave moves through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a general NW flow prevails mid to late week as the low
remains to the north and high pressure builds to the south and west.
A weak low pressure center passes sometime Saturday, riding along a
warm front.
Temperatures through this medium range period remain below normal
per model and mos consensus/WPC.
As for sensible weather, lingering showers/thunderstorms end Tuesday
evening. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
Wednesday as daytime instability builds, and shortwave provides
a trigger.
Then generally dry weather expected thereafter until low pressure
approaches and moves through next weekend. Overall, no large scale
storms expected during this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is moving across the terminals and should push east
of the region by mid morning.
All the terminals have improved to VFR, except those east of NYC,
where IFR cigs will be possible through 13z or so. Then,
improvement to VFR is expected. Expect the VFR conditions to prevail
through the day.
SW winds increase to 10-15 kt today with gusts around 20 kt in
the late morning and afternoon.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts may be occasional late this morning
and early afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca levels through
Tue. Wavewatch has been around 2 ft too high and also impacting
SWAN...therefore have capped seas at 4 ft today/tonight.
A moderate w/nw flow is expected across the waters through mid week
as low pressure remains well to the north near the Canadian
maritimes, and high pressure builds to the southwest. The pressure
gradient relaxes a bit by late in the week.
As such, near or just below SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday
night through Thursday for the non ocean waters, with SCA conditions
likely over the Ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may
produce a tenth or two of rainfall with no hydrologic impacts
expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides remain high again tonight and isolated minor
coastal flooding may occur in a few places along the south shore
bays of Long Island and the tidally affected portions of northeast
New Jersey bordering New York Harbor as well as Staten Island.
Thus...have issued a coastal flood statement for the times around
high tide this evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...24/PW
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region late tonight. Dry weather will
overspread the area behind the front thru Monday. A low pressure
system will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through
Friday. Another low pressure system affects the region Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With main area of pcpn well to the s and e...have removed pops
from the forecast overnight with the exception of Orange and
western Passaic counties where a light shower associated with the
actual cold frontal passage is possible. Have also added patchy
fog outside of NYC with residual sfc moisture and light winds.
Winds were also too high and were adjusted to better reflect
current obs and trends. Rest of forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Wly downslope flow Mon so went with a dry fcst. Increasing theta-e
overnight...so increasing clouds with a chc of shwrs late. Temps a
blend of the guidance which was in good agreement.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed upper low pressure remain over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the series of
shortwaves expected to rotate through. A weaker wave rotates
through, however at that time the low will be weakening and heights
will be rising across the eastern great lakes and New york and
Pennsylvania. Surface instability and CAPE will be marginal for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will keep a chance
in during that time frame. The upper trough and closed low drift
into the western north Atlantic Wednesday through Sunday with
cyclonic flow across the region. Heights rise and surface high
builds. The surface high weakens Friday as a developing warm front
moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley friday night into
Saturday. Will carry slight chance pops with the approach of the
front. Another shortwave rotates through the upper low Saturday into
Sunday weakening the upper ridge. Will have chance pops with the
shortwave and weak surface low that moves across the northeast
at that time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals late tonight.
Showers have ended with most terminals now VFR. The only exception
is at KJFK AND KISP where IFR cigs have developed. Not sure how
long this lasts. It may take until the front moves through in the
morning for those terminals to go VFR. Also, unsure just how far
these low cigs overspread. This will need to be monitored
overnight.
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals on Monday.
SW winds under 10 kt overnight. SW winds 10-15 kt on Monday with
gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...
.Mon Night...VFR.
.Tue...Mostly VFR. Chance shra/tstms.
.Wed...Mostly VFR. Chance shra. W gusts 20-25kt.
.Thu...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt
.Fri...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Have cancelled the SCA as seas are well below and winds should
remain below as well due to a strong sfc inversion over the
waters. Winds and seas remain blw sca lvls through Tue.
Low pressure will be moving through the waters Wednesday and a
northwest flow will be developing. Wind gusts are expected to
increase to small craft levels late wednesday afternoon, and more
likely by evening, across all the forecast waters. Small craft gusts
continue into Thursday and possibly Thursday evening on all the
waters, and into Friday on the eastern ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday may produce a tenth or
two of rainfall. Dry weather is expected the remainder of the work
week. Significant precipitation is not expected Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tide has passed and the coastal flood advsy has been allowed
to expire. May need a statement on long island`s south shore bays
tonight...but will address later.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
116 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross through the region overnight, ending the
threat for rain showers. Monday will be fair and breezy with
seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region
Tuesday triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into
the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 115 AM EDT, a weakening cold/occluded front was located
from the western Adirondacks into south central NYS. A potent
shortwave just passed across far northern NYS a few hours ago,
which sparked some showers and thunderstorms across the far NW
Adirondacks. Isolated showers will remain possible overnight
across the far western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley,
which will be in closer proximity to this shortwave, and another
one which will pass to the north closer to daybreak.
Elsewhere, low clouds and some fog was developing across many
valley areas, as well as across western New England. This will
likely persist until closer to daybreak, when drier air may
finally begin to mix out some of this low level moisture.
Overnight low temperatures should reach the lower/mid 50s across
the higher elevations, to the lower 60s in valley areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through
Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be
between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy
conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower
dew points mainly in the 50s.
A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and
strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the
Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is
expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region
Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany
its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during
the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid
40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short
wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from
clearing out.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much
instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring
perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately
followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high
pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the
greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for
the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of
precip.
Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could
produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal
temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit
instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the
only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On
Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further
south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva
Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures.
For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from
the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid-
Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the
remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with
highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below
normal.
The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as
much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern
Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much
temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the
nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The TAF sites remain ahead of the cold front and as such low
stratus clouds have overspread the region. Expect IFR/LIFR
conditions to occur at the TAF sites primarily through 08Z-09Z
after which there should be enough mixing in the wake of the cold
front to allow conditions to improve to VFR.
VFR conditions should be in place for the entire day on Monday.
West winds will be 10-15 kts with some higher gusts throughout the
day on Monday with just some diurnal cu and passing high cirrus
clouds. The winds will diminish during the evening hours with the
cirrus clouds becoming thicker as the evening progresses.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its
associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding
of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the
heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably
warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall has occurred with some reports minor
flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
Precipitable water values have been about 2 inches across the
area. The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was
1.73 inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been
consistent moving the heavy rainfall off to our east by around
00Z/Mon and this is occurring. There will be chances for convection
into the early morning hours until the passage of the occluded
boundary. Unfortunately we have limited rainfall reports coming
into our system this evening.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Frugis/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
The center of a longer wave length upper trough was located across
Ontario, Canada, with a broad upper level ridge across the northwest
US and western Canada.
A shorter wave length upper level trough will dig southeast from
eastern ND, southeast into the mid MS river valley Tonight. The low-
level CAA across the northern and central plains will help to push a
weak surface front southward across the CWA during the mid and late
afternoon hours.
Most numerical models show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front across the northern counties of the CWA
after 2 PM and then redeveloping southward along the surface front
through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Most of the stronger
ascent ahead of the H5 trough will be located across the Midwest but
the southern extent of the H5 trough may provide some additional
lift, though most of the ascent will occur due to surface
convergence ahead of the front. The RAP model only shows a few
isolated showers developing along the NE border during the afternoon
hours and does not forecast any QPF farther south along the surface
front through the afternoon and evening hours. I`ll keep at least a
20 percent chance for thunderstorms across CWA during the afternoon
hours and for the southern counties during the early evening hours.
Surface heating combined with residual moisture ahead of the
surface front will allow MLCAPES to reach 800 to 1400 j/kg. 500mb
northwesterly flow at 30 to 45 KTS across eastern KS will result
in 0-6 KM effective shear of 30 to 40 KTS during the afternoon
hours. Given the above instability and vertical shear parameters,
the environment will become favorable for any isolated
thunderstorms that develops ahead of the front to be strong to
severe. The primary hazards would be hail to the size of quarters
to half dollars and 50 to 60 MPH wind gusts. The storms ahead of
the front across the southern counties of the CWA should weaken
towards sunset.
During the late evening hours the surface cold front will shift
southeast of the CWA and any lingering showers will move southeast
of the CWA. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
Late Tuesday through Thursday, have only made minor changes as the
overall pattern continues to look the same as it has the past
several days. The mean trough over the Eastern CONUS will slowly
lift to the northeast and the mean ridge axis from the west will get
pushed east over the Central Plains as another Pacific system and
trough dig into the western CONUS. This leaves mostly a dry
atmosphere over northeastern Kansas and weak forcing at best. Slight
chances of a weak elevated thunderstorm mainly Wednesday morning
have been kept in the western counties of the forecast area. The
trend has been to decrease POPs heading into Thursday and most
convection staying over portions of the Rockies convectively induced
by daytime heating. Lee trough tries to set up, but is slow to do
so with relatively weak flow pattern over the Rockies into the
Central Plains, so confidence is low at this point for morning
showers and storms on Thursday. Only have very low end chance POPs
and going with a mainly dry forecast.
Into the weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms look at
least a little better into the late Saturday and Sunday time
frames. The overall ridge begins to break down as it advects east
and several weak shortwaves flow over the Rockies. As these kick
out they attempt to develop lee-side lows, but again weak forcing
doesn`t seem to support much development and a fairly strong EML
is likely to be in place with again moisture return in question.
With most of the modified polar jet remaining to the north more
near the US/Canadian border, have not increased POPs more than
low-end slight chance. High temperatures by late week will reach
into the lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2016
There remains mixed signals from the short range models on how
widespread diurnally driven convection might be this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints remain in the lower to mid 50s as winds already
begin shifting to the northwest. So the NAM may be overdoing the
afternoon instability, but the NAM is the driest solution. With
the HRRR showing a better chance to the west, have included a VCSH
for a few hours and left TOP and FOE dry for now. Unless a shower
or storm moves across the terminal, VFR conditions should prevail.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters