Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/05/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Soaking rainfall will occur Sunday as a low pressure system
approaches and moves across the region. Rainfall will be moderate
to heavy at times during the afternoon into the evening. The
rainfall may be heavy enough to produce flooding of urban, low
lying and poor drainage areas. In addition, there are chances for
some thunderstorms. Monday looks mainly fair and breezy with
seasonable temperatures and just a slight chance for showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 746 PM EDT...Visible and IR satellite imagery continues to
show mainly clear skies over northern areas, but some clouds are
starting to increase across southern parts of the region. Regional
MRMS imagery shows some rain showers are impacting parts of the
southeastern Catskills and lower Hudson Valley. These showers are
rather brief, although there could be a quick burst of heavier
rainfall as they move eastward across the area through the
remainder of the evening hours. Outside of
Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties, it should be dry for the
evening hours for the remainder of the area.
Overall, clouds will thicken and lowering tonight with showers
overspreading the area from the southwest mainly after midnight
with precipitable water levels on the rise as a warm front
approaches from the south. Have likely pops across the entire
forecast area by sunrise.
Lows will be similar or a bit milder than previous nights, however
it become muggy tonight as dew points rise with a light southeast
flow. Expecting lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Soaking rainfall will occur Sunday as a low pressure system
approaches and moves across the region. Precipitable water
values will continue to rise with values approaching 2 inches
during the afternoon. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times
with the heaviest rainfall expected to occur mid to late afternoon
as the low jet strengthen considerably over the region; southeast
850 mb jet of 40 to 60 knots. This will aid to enhanced the
rainfall especially across the eastern Catskills and southern
Adirondacks. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2 inches is
expected with locally higher amounts around 3 inches or so. The
heavy rainfall will likely produce flooding of urban, low lying
and poor drainage areas with isolated flash flooding a possibility.
An upper level low closes off over the Great Lakes with the
approaching low pressure system by Sunday morning. The upper
trough becomes negatively tilted Sunday as short wave energy
rotates about the base of the low. The system is still expected to
occlude however it now appears the warm front will into the area
Sunday. This will provided focus for a heavy period of heavy
rainfall as it approaches and moves in as the low level jet
strengthens. Have enhanced wording of locally heavy rainfall for
the afternoon into the evening. Also chances for thunderstorms
has increased. Showalter values become negative so have scattered
thunderstorms mentioned for the afternoon from 18z and through
much of the evening.
After collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center, the Slight
risk for severe thunderstorms has been brought farther north
just into our forecast area, the southwest corner mainly Ulster
County. Also the Marginal risk has been extended northward across
the Mohawk Valley into the southern Adirondacks, across the
Capital District and southern Berkshires and northwestern
Connecticut. Have added enhanced wording of gusty winds with the
scattered thunderstorms for outlooked areas for the mid afternoon
into early evening hours.
With the passage of the system`s cold front Sunday evening the
chances for showers along with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms
will end with pops decreasing especially after midnight.
The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada Monday
and Monday night. Our region with be between short waves rotating
about the low so only slight chance for showers is expected. It
will be breezy Monday with winds weakening Monday night. Highs
Monday will seasonably warm with lower dew points in the 50s.
Lows are expected to be in the 50s Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large, amplified sinusoidal upper level wave pattern will dictate
the long term forecast period. Associated with this meridional flow
is an upper level low pressure system centered near Hudson Bay.
Perturbations within the 500 hPa flow around the upper level will
generate some surface low pressure impulses and some mid level PVA
rounding the base of the trough. This will provide some enhanced
chances of precipitation throughout the long term forecast period.
The latest 04 06/12Z model and probabilistic guidances continues to
show h500 temps between -12C to -16C as the southern extent of the
cold upper level trough over Canada dips into our region helping to
provide some daytime instability showers. Although not mentioned in
graphical forecast, some of the daytime showers might have some
embedded low top thunderstorms, especially to start the extended
period on Tuesday and Wednesday with anomalous cold temps aloft
enhancing vertical lift during diurnal heating. This upper level
trough will very slowly makes its way east as the western
periphery is over our region by Friday afternoon. As the axis of
the upper level trough moves eastward, some weak forcing may
produce some isolated showers. Otherwise as we head into the first
half of next weekend, high pressure returns to the region providing
tranquil weather. High temperatures throughout the long term period
will start near average on Tuesday, then drop slightly below average
throughout the remainder of the long term period under west-
northwesterly flow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR at all sites, with mainly
just mid and high level clouds in place. These high level clouds
will continue to increase over the next few hours and some rain
showers will start to move into the region from the south and west
during the overnight hours. Initially, flying conditions will
lower to MVFR, but a period of IFR conditions looks to occur for
the late night hours as the rain showers become steadier and
heavier as a warm front lifts towards the area. KPOU may see IFR
conditions as early as 05z, but it will likely take until 10z-12z
to occur for the other sites.
As the warm front lifts northward, the rain won`t be quite as
steady or heavy, and there looks to be a break with just some
passing showers around for during the late morning into early aftn
hours. Flying conditions should improve to MVFR, but cannot really
pick out any period that will be completely dry. By the late
afternoon into the evening, another round of steadier and heavier
rain showers associated with the cold front will come through.
There could even be some thunder, but not enough confident in its
timing or extent to include just now. However, another round of
IFR conditions look to occur for all sites for Sunday evening.
Light winds will become S-SE around 10 kts by late tonight, with
some higher gusts at times. SE winds around 10 kts will continue
through much of the day Sunday. Within any thunderstorm late
Sunday, stronger winds will be possible.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Soaking rainfall will occur Sunday as a low pressure
system approaches and moves across the region. Rainfall will be
moderate to heavy at times during the afternoon. In addition,
there are chances for some thunderstorms. Monday looks mainly fair
and breezy with seasonable temperatures and just a slight chance
for showers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Soaking rainfall will occur Sunday as a low pressure system
approaches and moves across the region. Precipitable water
values will be on the increase from the southwest tonight with
values approaching 2 inches Sunday afternoon. Rainfall will be
moderate to heavy at times with the heaviest rainfall expected
to occur mid to late afternoon into the early evening as the low
jet strengthens considerably over the region. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 1/2 to 2 inches is expected with locally higher
amounts around 3 inches or so. The heavy rainfall will likely
produce flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas with
isolated flash flooding possibility. Since the expected rainfall
is below flash flood guidance and the threat of flash flooding is
only isolated, a flash flood watch has not been issued. Will
continue to highlight in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
716 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring periods of heavy rain to the
region Sunday and especially Sunday evening with the potential for
minor urban and poor drainage street flooding. Dry and warm
weather returns for Monday, but a cold front may bring a few
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Another
disturbance may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Wednesday. Otherwise, main story will be unseasonably
cool temperatures Wednesday through next Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***Areas of dense fog expected to develop this evening along the
south coast, Cape and Islands***
715 pm update...
Dense fog advisory issued for the south coast, Cape and Islands.
Light moist south winds and low temp/dewpoint spread should allow
areas of dense fog to develop in this region during the evening
hours. Across the rest of the region, areas of low clouds and fog
will develop but not for at least several more hours and perhaps
after midnight for many locations. Its possible this dense fog
advisory may need to be expanded later this evening, but not enough
confidence to do so at this point.
Leading edge of showers with approaching warm front will push into
the CT valley after midnight, quickly pushing E overnight. Expect
temps to fall back to the lower-mid 60s, except the mid-upper 50s
across outer Cape Cod and the islands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...
A fast moving, potent H5 short wave and complex surface system
will cross the region during this timeframe.
Short range models in rather good agreement in bringing a good
slug of moisture to the moisture starved region. Excellent
isentropic lift in place ahead of warm front, with S-SE winds
feeding moisture into the region. Also noting PWAT values
increasing to around 2 inches Sunday afternoon and night with
plume of tropical moisture works across the region on a strong SW
low level jet /30-35 kt at H925 and 40-45 kt at H85/ crosses the
region Sunday evening.
Good instability is also in place, with MU CAPES up to around
1200 J/kg, K indices increasing to the mid 30s and TQ values
around 20 /good for elevated instability/. All of these signal
developing thunderstorms. Model timing is also quite good, so
expect the convection starting around 22Z, pushing E by around
04Z-05Z as the parent low pressure shifting into western Quebec
overnight Sunday night.
As the low moves around H5 cutoff low over Ontario, its
associated frontal system will cross the region Sunday night. So,
looks like a quick hitting system. QPF values remain at 1.5 to
1.75 inches, with some localized 2 inch amounts. With the
convection and water laden airmass, could see localized heavy
downpours. Since it has been rather dry since the first of the
year, with rainfall departures of around 2.5 inches at both BOS
and PVD and up to 4-4.5 inches at ORH and BDL. So, this will put a
dent into the lack of rain.
Rain will cut off rather quickly during the overnight hours Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* Dry and warm Monday w/highs mainly in the 80s
* Warm Tuesday with a few pm showers/t-storms possible
* Much cooler Wed with scattered showers and a few t-storms possible
* Unseasonably cool Thu/Fri/Sat
Details...
Monday...
A west southwest flow of air behind the cold front will result in
partly to mostly sunny skies. The air behind this front is still
mild, with 850t still between +12 and +13c. This should allow much
of the region to see high temps in the lower to middle 80s, except
along the immediate south coast, Cape and Islands. Dry mid level
air and lack of forcing should keep the weather mainly dry on
Monday, although there is a very low risk of a spot shower or two.
At this time, kept forecast dry because even if a spot shower is
able to develop should remain very isolated and of short duration.
Monday night...
Dry and tranquil weather continues with low temps dropping into the
50s to lower 60s by daybreak.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
A fairly strong cold front will approach the region Tue. High temps
still probably break 80 degrees across much of the region with at
least partial sunshine. While the majority of the day will be dry,
the potential exists for a few showers/thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. It is a long way
out, but there are a few things will have to watch closely in the
coming days. 0 to 6 km shear values may exceed 40 knots and there
is a cold pool aloft with this system, as 500 mb temps expected to
drop between -14c and -16c. The cold air aloft should support at
least decent mid level lapse rates. However, the biggest
uncertainty is will we be able to generate enough Cape and forcing
to get a few showers/thunderstorms to develop. If so, there is the
risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms but again too much
uncertainty to say much more at this time.
Wednesday...
Cooler weather expected behind the cold front and high temps may
only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s despite partial sunshine. A
fairly potent shortwave drops down in northwest flow aloft and 500
mb temps drop to below -20c, which is quite impressive for this time
of year. This will certainly bring the risk for a period of
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms given cold pool aloft.
Thursday...
Probably mainly dry weather by this time, but can not rule out a
diurnally driven spot shower or two. Main story will be
unseasonably cool temps. GEFS showing 850t down to between +1 and
+2C which is 2 standard deviations below normal for this time of
year. Low temps at daybreak early Thu am should be well down into
the 40s to lower 50s across much of the region. High temps Thu
afternoon probably only reach into the 60s.
Friday and Saturday...
Upper level trough and below normal heights will continue over the
northeast through Saturday. The result will be below normal
temperatures continuing for this time of year. Will have to watch
for a weak wave of low pressure that could bring a period of rain
showers to the region on Friday, but confidence is quite low.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS develop on the
south coast by 03Z, then develop across remainder of region around
or after midnight. Scattered -SHRA move into W Mass/N Central CT by
04Z-05Z, then shift E toward daybreak.
Sunday into Sunday night...Moderate confidence. Expect mainly IFR
CIGS in -RA/RA, with local LIFR conditions in areas of +RA along
with sct TSRA. Best chance for precip/thunder from 22Z Sat-05Z Sun.
Precip should taper off after midnight Sunday night. Winds shift to
S-SE with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sunday night, highest across RI/SE
Mass. Heavy rain and strong gusts possible in any TSRA. May see
conditions improve to VFR after midnight across W MA/N central CT.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday and Monday night...Moderate to high confidence. Lingering
low clouds and fog patches should burn off by late Monday morning,
but may persist a bit longer across Cape/Islands. Otherwise, mainly
VFR conditions expected Monday into Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR
other than the risk for brief localized reductions in CIGS/VSBYS in
a few showers/t-storms Tue afternoon/evening and then again on Wed.
Patchy ground fog possible for a few hours toward daybreak in the
typically prone locations.
Thursday...Moderate to high confidence in mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight...High confidence. S-SE winds continue at less than 15
kts. Seas 3 feet or less. Vsby restrictions in areas of fog,
locally dense.
Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate to high confidence. SE winds
will increase during the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas
build to 5-6 ft. Small crafts have been issued for the outer
waters as well as much of the near shore waters. Gusts may reach
30 kt Sunday night across the eastern waters. Showers move in
during Sunday, with thunderstorms developing late Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night. Heavy rain and gusty winds in any thunderstorms.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...Moderate to high confidence. Lingering southeast swell
will result in small craft seas across the outer-waters and perhaps
into Rhode Island and Block Island sound. Winds should generally
remain below small craft advisory thresholds, but a period of
southwest wind gusts into the lower 20 knots are possible Monday
afternoon along the near shore waters of the south coast.
Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence. Lingering 5 foot swell may
persist into Tue morning across our southern outer-waters before
diminishing. Otherwise, main concern is for southwest wind gusts
near 25 knots Tuesday afternoon along the near shore waters of the
south coast. This may require near shore small craft headlines, but
its too early to tell at this point.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate to high confidence. Northwest
wind gusts around 25 knots likely develop over the open waters late
Wed into Thu under cool advection. 850T may drop to around +1 or
+2C for a time which is quite anomalously cool for June standards.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide at 12.2 ft for Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible, but even a small surge could
result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
Overnight Monday night...There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston
around 1230 Monday morning. SE winds shift to SW around the time
of high tide along the E coast. May see brief splashover along S
coastal areas, but tide times are a few hours earlier than when
the wind shift will occur. This should lower the risk for
splashover, but can not totally rule it out.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ020>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ004>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EVT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary weakens today as high pressure remains just
offshore. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes tonight and
Sunday, then into eastern Canada Monday. A warm front moves
through Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The
low will remain to the north for the start of the new week, and
then high pressure will build east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is mostly on track. Made adjustments to hourly temps and
dewpoints as well as cloud cover to account for latest obs and
trends. Also bumped up high temp forecast slightly for some areas.
Generally partly sunny this afternoon.
Weak frontal boundary across the northern zones weakens further
this afternoon, leaving us with weak high pressure.
High temperatures today away from the waters will rise into the
80s, if sunshine is in fact realized. 70s are forecast closer to
the coast due to onshore flow.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out a few showers across
western zones today as a weak shortwave moves through. Weak cape is
possible per NAM fcst soundings, but GFS shows enough mid level
warm air to provide a cap. Will maintain mention of thunder, but
generally expect isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge gives way to upstream trough, with lowering heights
noted across the northeast. At the surface, low pressure
traverses into Canada, pivoting north of the Great Lakes. A warm
front south and west of the area approaches tonight, and could
move through western portions of the area Sunday afternoon ahead
of a cold front.
Weak PVA is noted, and precipitable waters increase to 2 inches
plus by Sunday afternoon per GFS and NAM. Marginal instability
builds Sunday afternoon. Expect enough lift ahead of the warm
front for increasing coverage of showers tonight, and widespread
coverage Sunday due to plenty of lift, deep moisture and the frontal
boundary acting as a trigger. Ample shear could result in gusty
winds in any thunderstorm, especially western zones, and small
hail is possible as well. Heavy rain remains a threat, and timing
of enhanced thunderstorm activity would be during the afternoon
and into the evening. This is not a certainty however, as
instability remains marginal, and frontal position remains in
question.
With increasing clouds and onshore flow tonight, temps remain in the
60s. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening as the upper trough moves into the region and wind shear and
lift increase, with the strongest storms in the Lower Hudson Valley
into Northeastern New Jersey. The main threat will be strong and
potentially damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible. With
the loss of heating and the upper trough closing off and flattening
the threat of strong thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening
and overnight. The bulk of the shower activity moves east.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front will develop to the s of the region tngt...and pass
thru the area during the day Sun.
Vfr for the rest of the day...then mvfr or lower develops quickly
tngt. Best chances for fog and vlifr from kisp to kgon.
There is some uncertainty wrt the exact evolution of rain chances.
For this aftn and eve...a few shwrs or tstms possible mainly w of
the Hudson River. Then overnight into Sun mrng...rain develops in
advance of the warm front...but attm the focus appears to remain n
of the city and close to or just n of kswf. S of this area of
rain...chances for lgt rain or dz in a moist airmass. As a
result...the tafs indicate vsby restrictions in -ra and/or br for
this time period.
Heavier shwrs and embedded tstms cannot be ruled out Sun mrng.
The main sys comes thru aft 18z...with widespread rain and tstms
likely. Prob30 for tstms for now til timing/placement can be
better refined.
Sly winds today backing to the se tngt thru Sun. Some variability
in direction tngt and Sun mrng invof shwrs.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Rest of Sun...Mainly ifr with tstms likely in the late aftn and
eve...then becoming vfr. Se winds becoming w overnight as the sys
passes.
.Mon...Vfr with sw flow.
.Tue...Vfr with sw flow becoming nly overnight behind a cfp.
.Wed...Vfr with nw flow.
.Thu...Vfr with nw flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through tonight outside
of any isolated thunderstorms that don`t fall apart before reaching
the waters.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southerly flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels Sunday night and continue through
Monday. Finally, gusts, mainly on the ocean waters, may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon/night.
SCA then possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night due to a
tightening pres gradient between departing low pres to the north and
high pres building to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected today.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to a new moon.
Tides are actually high enough to put some areas along the Long
Island south shore back bays into minor flood with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Only about 1/2 ft departures are needed for minor
flooding across the lower NY Harbor region. Will issue a coastal
flood advisory for the south shore back bays area, and a
statement for the lower NY Harbor region.
With stronger winds Sunday night, any coastal flooding could
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however.
As such, additional statements, or advisories may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...JC/PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1101 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions
today. Mild with rain Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
with the potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Mild and summer-like for Monday, while turning cooler through the
remainder of the week with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM Update...
Low clouds and fog have been stubborn to burn off through mid
morning along the immediate E coast into SE Mass due to light
onshore or calm winds. Morning visible satellite trends show low
clouds shifting S out of most of E coastal Mass at 14Z, so
conditions will finally improve by noontime. However, with
continued onshore winds across Cape Cod and the Islands up to near
the Cape Cod Canal, the clouds and fog will linger into at least
early afternoon. Low clouds and fog will also continue across the
near shore waters.
Elsewhere, noting veil of high clouds across the region, which is
not limiting the sunshine and warming temperatures. Away from the
E coast, temps have rebounded to the 70s at many locations at 14Z
with light N-NW or calm winds. Temps should continue to rise to
the lower-mid 80s, possible a few spots may get close to 90
mainly across N CT.
With such light winds inland, and onshore winds up to around 10
mph, do not think that there will be enough low level convergence
to get any sea breeze showers to develop. Can not totally rule it
out so did keep the slight chance going mainly across E Mass where
there could be enough wind to cause a few spot showers to develop
around mid to late afternoon.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current.
Previous discussion...
Mainly dry conditions but some of the guidance is hinting at a
spot shower in eastern MA/RI along the seabreeze boundary and have
just slight chc PoPs in this region. 850 mb temps 13-14C which
supports highs into the low to mid 80s away from the coast. Light
boundary layer winds will result in seabreezes developing which
will hold temps in the 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop over the
Cape/Islands and will likely spread inland overnight. Leading
edge of overrunning moisture moves into the region late tonight
and will bring some showers to western New Eng after 06z and
especially toward daybreak. Expect dry weather to hang on in the
east with showers moving in just after daybreak. Lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s with upper 50s Cape/Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Heavy rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, potential flooding
- Dry and summer-like for Monday
- An unsettled, cooler pattern for the remainder of the week
- Uncertainty in the forecast towards the late week / weekend
*/ DISCUSSION...
Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per
an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into
Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup
of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations
below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to
10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled
weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes
begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long
term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are
outlined below.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A soaker. Strong over-running signature of Gulf moisture wrapping
into an occluding low over the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers, a great deal of confidence of a 1 to
2 inch event given deep layer isentropic lift and dynamic forcing
along and ahead of a surface warm front gradually lifting NE across
New England with time, in addition to strong probabalistic signals
from ensemble guidance and CIPS analogs.
While the crux of heaviest rain is forecast across W/N Upstate NY, a
secondary area of development is possible collocated with a triple
point low emerging with the occlusion and the convergent nose of the
h925-85 low level jet across S New England. Parent low to mid level
frontogenesis and moist convergence of precipitable waters in excess
of 2-inches beneath mid-level vortex energy and diffluence aloft. A
robust theta-e plume and H85 dewpoints up around 15C, the modeled
airmass exhibiting tropical characteristics with a deep warm layer
up to H6 and accompanying cloud depth up to 4 km undergoes deep-
layer lift signaling an efficient warm-rain process. Coupled
conditionally unstable, moist adiabatic profile, convective
activity is plausible with the presence of elevated instability as
most of the time the warm sector remain well S/W over the Mid-
Atlantic. With any thunderstorms, will prevail heavy rain and
gusty winds.
Altogether within a timeframe of late Sunday into Sunday evening,
looking at a short duration event of roughly 6 hours during which
time a good slug of rain is forecast that could produce rainfall
rates of around 1-inch per hour. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches are possible. Confidence with respect to urban and poor-
drainage flooding, but can not rule out the possibility of flash
flooding to which the Weather Prediction Center presently has
much of the NE under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Likely a
need to monitor urban / small stream tributaries. Main stem rivers
and streams should be able to handle forecast rainfalls given
their low flows. Given the spread in solutions within short-term
high-res guidance, will hold off on any headlines and continue to
address within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise, SE flow prevailing for a time before the warm front kicks
N late in the forecast period. Considerable low level moisture with
higher dewpoints working in, likely low clouds with mist/fog issues
over a good chunk of S New England as conditions will remain cool,
gradually warming with a non-diurnal trend into evening as warm rain
processes lift N/E across the region. Highs Sunday could be met by
the end of the day after sunset around the upper 60s to low 70s.
Next week into the weekend...
Atypical early June pattern that has greater resemblance to Winter.
Continued cyclonic troughing through which mid-level vortex energy
will rotate as the parent cold pool wobbles S. The combination of
ingredients with any diurnal heating contribute to chance PoPs of
showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS. A low confidence
forecast given the complexities of forecast solutions in handling
individual waves round the broader vortex.
A consistent signal of Monday remaining dry and very summer-like as
drier air wraps across the region into the occluded low over the S
Hudson Bay region of Canada. Unsettled weather prevails thereafter
into the weekend as mid-level vortex energy rotates through the S
periphery of the broader trough pushing cooler air aloft further S.
With any diurnal heating in an environment with steepening lapse
rates, looking at the potential of low CAPE, high shear events.
Tuesday through Thursday this is possibly the case especially over
the interior. Purely speculative so far out in the forecast and thus
low confidence.
Unclear how the forecast evolves by the weekend, dependent as to
whether the broad troughing pattern can wobble E far enough to allow
ridging and high pressure to encroach from the W. Per ensembles, the
NE CONUS is shown to be within the W periphery of the trough. NW
flow prevailing with departure, a cooler pattern appears likely
though uncertain whether it is unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
This afternoon...High Confidence. IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
will likely linger through the afternoon across Cape Cod and the
Islands, but may see some brief breaks to VFR. Also noting MVFR
CIGS across SE Mass at 14Z, but should improve to VFR by 17Z-18Z.
Elsewhere, VFR. May see some SCT-BKN clouds developing across E
Mass/RI with low risk of spot shower or two, mainly after 18Z.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR stratus and fog redevelops
across Cape/islands in the evening and eventually spreads inland
overnight. Timing uncertain. Leading edge of showers will move
into CT valley toward daybreak.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs early this
morning but not expecting any vsby restrictions with s/sw winds.
Seabreeze develops by late morning.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, likely +RA with possible TSRA. Lower
conditions forecast with +RA. Winds turning S and increasing with
the potential for gusts around 30 kts late Sunday evening especially
over SE terminals , gradually backing S/SW overnight. Stronger gusts
possible with +RA/TSRA. Improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time. Perhaps MVFR/IFR lingers over
Nantucket.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, mainly across the interior, dissipating into evening and
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.
Expect light N winds across the eastern waters with SW winds on
the southern waters through this afternoon with local sea breezes.
Light winds will shift to S-SW tonight with approach of warm
front, but remain at 10 kt or less. S-SE winds will pick up during
Sunday, with gusts to 20 kt during the afternoon. Low chance of 25
kt gusts on the southern outer waters.
Main concern continues to be areas of fog...some locally dense,
through tonight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, heavy at times and possibly with some embedded
thunder. Subsequent visibility restrictions down around a mile or
two. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind which winds back
out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 30 kts throughout the
period. Small craft advisories under consideration along with waves
on the outer waters building 5 to 8 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. SW winds
gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
around 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide reaches 12.2 ft at Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible but don`t need much of a surge
to result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston around 1230 Monday
morning. Easterly flow is possible late Sun night, which could
lead to a enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1032 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be fair and summer like with warm temperatures as high
pressure moves across the area. Rain is forecast for Sunday along
with a chance of thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes. Monday looks mainly fair and breezy with
seasonable temperatures and just a chance of a passing afternoon
shower.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1032 AM EDT...Morning fog has dissipated leaving a high
thin cirrus deck to filter the sunshine. Temperatures are
generally in the 70s with some 60s in the higher terrain. Winds
are light and variable. Expect high clouds to gradually thicken
today, but mainly fair conditions expected. Just a slight chance
of a shower over Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties later
today as slow moving cold front combined with afternoon heating
may provide focus for a shower.
It will be a warm day as high pressure crests overhead. Highs
this afternoon will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts
to lift northeast from the Ohio valley this evening into western
New York and eastern Pennsylvania late tonight. In addition to the
clouds, showers will also be on the increase from southwest to
northeast especially after midnight. Lows tonight will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
The warm front may briefly move into the southwest third of the fa
on Sunday before the system becomes occluded. Have added enhanced
wording for heavy downpours on Sunday into Sunday evening as PWATS
rise to 1.5 to 2 inches while at the same time an extremely strong
theta e ridge crosses the fa Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Embedded within the area of showers will be scattered thunderstorms
as Showalter indices briefly drop to zero. Expecting total
rainfall amounts to be generally between 1.5 and 2.25 inches with
isolated amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible especially where
thunderstorms occur. The precipitation is expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast during the second half of Sunday
night. Expect highs on Sunday to only range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s in rain cooled air. Lows on Sunday night will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
On Monday there will still be scattered showers around as the
forecast area remains under cyclonic flow with the low pressure
system tracking across eastern Canada. The shower activity will
diminish Monday evening. Highs on Monday are expected to range
from the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows Monday night in the mid
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a
deep and anomalous upper level trough across eastern CONUS. This
will keep conditions cool and somewhat unsettled, with the best
chances for showers associated with individual disturbances rotating
around the parent upper level low, and also coincident with peak
diurnal heating. The trough axis is expected to pass across the
region late Tuesday into Wednesday, and then move east of the region
by Thursday. However, it should remain close enough to still have
some influence on portions of the region into Friday.
So, for some specifics, models seems to suggest the main trough axis
passes through late Tuesday into Wednesday, when several stronger
individual disturbances pass through. Expect scattered showers both
days, with greatest areal coverage expected in the afternoon hours.
Have also included mention of isolated thunderstorms during each
afternoon. Given such cold air aloft, small hail and gusty winds
could accompany any taller convective elements.
The main trough should move into eastern New England by Thursday,
and off the New England coast by Friday. However, lingering cold air
in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, and possible additional
upper level disturbances passing southeast across the region could
still allow for isolated to scattered showers for Thursday-Friday,
again with the best chances in the afternoon hours.
It will also be quite breezy for Tuesday-Thursday afternoons, with
some wind gusts possibly reaching at least 25-35 mph at times.
High temperatures on Tuesday should reach the 75-80 in valleys, and
60s to lower 70s across higher elevations. Slightly cooler for
Wednesday and Thursday as the main trough and upper level cold pool
move across, with high temperatures only reaching 65-70 in valleys,
and 55-60 across higher elevations, with some of the highest
elevations possibly only reaching the lower 50s or even cooler.
Slightly warmer for Friday, with high temperatures reaching the
lower/mid 70s for valleys, and 60s across higher elevations.
Overnight low temperatures through the period will mainly fall into
the lower/mid 50s for most lower elevations, with 40s across higher
elevations. If skies clear out for any duration, even colder low
temperatures, perhaps in the 30s, could occur across portions of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any morning low clouds/FG/BR should dissipate between 12Z-14Z/Sat,
allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take until the mid
to late morning for this to occur at KPOU. Much of the day will
then just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Then, low clouds will then expand back northward later tonight. In
addition, showers will develop from south to north between roughly
07Z-10Z/Sun ahead of an approaching warm front. Expect MVFR to IFR
conditions to develop during this time. There is a slight chance
that some embedded thunderstorms could occur as well, but overall
probability too low at this time range to include direct mention
in TAFS.
Light/variable winds at less than 4 KT should become W to NW at
4-8 KT later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and continue
into Saturday evening, before becoming more south to southeast
toward daybreak Sunday at 5-10 KT.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weakening cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region early this morning. Today
will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in.
While, Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances
for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and moves
into the region.
Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 55 percent today,
recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 70 to 85 percent
on Sunday.
Winds will be north to northwest around 5 mph today, light and
variable tonight, and southeast at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Today will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure builds
in. Clouds will increase tonight with showers developing. On Sunday
a soaking rainfall will occur along with chances for
thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and moves into
the region. The rainfall is expected to be heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday afternoon and evening with
total rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.25 inches forecast with
locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible in
thunderstorms. While river flooding is not expected there will be
significant within bank rises on the mainstem rivers. Urban
flooding, flooding of poorly drained low lying areas as well as
some flooding of small streams is possible.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
659 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions
today. Mild with rain Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
with the potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Mild and summer-like for Monday, while turning cooler through the
remainder of the week with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Areas of low clouds will burn off by mid morning across much of
SNE but may linger into early afternoon across portions of the
Cape and Islands. Clouds will give way to partly sunny skies as
diurnal cu develops given low level moisture in place. Mainly dry
conditions but some of the guidance is hinting at a spot shower in
eastern MA/RI along the seabreeze boundary and have just slight
chc PoPs in this region. 850 mb temps 13-14C which supports highs
into the low to mid 80s away from the coast. Light boundary layer
winds will result in seabreezes developing which will hold temps
in the 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop over the
Cape/Islands and will likely spread inland overnight. Leading edge
of overrunning moisture moves into the region late tonight and
will bring some showers to western New Eng after 06z and
especially toward daybreak. Expect dry weather to hang on in the
east with showers moving in just after daybreak. Lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s with upper 50s Cape/Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Heavy rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, potential flooding
- Dry and summer-like for Monday
- An unsettled, cooler pattern for the remainder of the week
- Uncertainty in the forecast towards the late week / weekend
*/ DISCUSSION...
Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per
an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into
Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup
of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations
below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to
10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled
weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes
begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long
term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are
outlined below.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A soaker. Strong over-running signature of Gulf moisture wrapping
into an occluding low over the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers, a great deal of confidence of a 1 to
2 inch event given deep layer isentropic lift and dynamic forcing
along and ahead of a surface warm front gradually lifting NE across
New England with time, in addition to strong probabalistic signals
from ensemble guidance and CIPS analogs.
While the crux of heaviest rain is forecast across W/N Upstate NY, a
secondary area of development is possible collocated with a triple
point low emerging with the occlusion and the convergent nose of the
h925-85 low level jet across S New England. Parent low to mid level
frontogenesis and moist convergence of precipitable waters in excess
of 2-inches beneath mid-level vortex energy and diffluence aloft. A
robust theta-e plume and H85 dewpoints up around 15C, the modeled
airmass exhibiting tropical characteristics with a deep warm layer
up to H6 and accompanying cloud depth up to 4 km undergoes deep-
layer lift signaling an efficient warm-rain process. Coupled
conditionally unstable, moist adiabatic profile, convective
activity is plausible with the presence of elevated instability as
most of the time the warm sector remain well S/W over the Mid-
Atlantic. With any thunderstorms, will prevail heavy rain and
gusty winds.
Altogether within a timeframe of late Sunday into Sunday evening,
looking at a short duration event of roughly 6 hours during which
time a good slug of rain is forecast that could produce rainfall
rates of around 1-inch per hour. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches are possible. Confidence with respect to urban and poor-
drainage flooding, but can not rule out the possibility of flash
flooding to which the Weather Prediction Center presently has
much of the NE under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Likely a
need to monitor urban / small stream tributaries. Main stem rivers
and streams should be able to handle forecast rainfalls given
their low flows. Given the spread in solutions within short-term
high-res guidance, will hold off on any headlines and continue to
address within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise, SE flow prevailing for a time before the warm front kicks
N late in the forecast period. Considerable low level moisture with
higher dewpoints working in, likely low clouds with mist/fog issues
over a good chunk of S New England as conditions will remain cool,
gradually warming with a non-diurnal trend into evening as warm rain
processes lift N/E across the region. Highs Sunday could be met by
the end of the day after sunset around the upper 60s to low 70s.
Next week into the weekend...
Atypical early June pattern that has greater resemblance to Winter.
Continued cyclonic troughing through which mid-level vortex energy
will rotate as the parent cold pool wobbles S. The combination of
ingredients with any diurnal heating contribute to chance PoPs of
showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS. A low confidence
forecast given the complexities of forecast solutions in handling
individual waves round the broader vortex.
A consistent signal of Monday remaining dry and very summer-like as
drier air wraps across the region into the occluded low over the S
Hudson Bay region of Canada. Unsettled weather prevails thereafter
into the weekend as mid-level vortex energy rotates through the S
periphery of the broader trough pushing cooler air aloft further S.
With any diurnal heating in an environment with steepening lapse
rates, looking at the potential of low CAPE, high shear events.
Tuesday through Thursday this is possibly the case especially over
the interior. Purely speculative so far out in the forecast and thus
low confidence.
Unclear how the forecast evolves by the weekend, dependent as to
whether the broad troughing pattern can wobble E far enough to allow
ridging and high pressure to encroach from the W. Per ensembles, the
NE CONUS is shown to be within the W periphery of the trough. NW
flow prevailing with departure, a cooler pattern appears likely
though uncertain whether it is unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
12z update...
Today...High Confidence. MVFR/IFR Low clouds and patchy fog will
burn off by mid/late morning although may linger into early
afternoon outer Cape and ACK. SCT-BKN cumulus developing with a
low risk for a spot shower in the afternoon eastern MA/RI.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR stratus and fog redevelops
across Cape/islands in the evening and eventually spreads inland
overnight. Timing uncertain. Leading edge of showers will move
into CT valley toward daybreak.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs early this
morning but not expecting any vsby restrictions with s/sw winds.
Seabreeze develops by late morning.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, likely +RA with possible TSRA. Lower
conditions forecast with +RA. Winds turning S and increasing with
the potential for gusts around 30 kts late Sunday evening especially
over SE terminals , gradually backing S/SW overnight. Stronger gusts
possible with +RA/TSRA. Improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time. Perhaps MVFR/IFR lingers over
Nantucket.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, mainly across the interior, dissipating into evening and
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.
7 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through tonight. Winds will become onshore
today over nearshore waters as seabreezes develop. Main concern
for mariners will be for areas of fog this morning and again
tonight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, heavy at times and possibly with some embedded
thunder. Subsequent visibility restrictions down around a mile or
two. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind which winds back
out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 30 kts throughout the
period. Small craft advisories under consideration along with waves
on the outer waters building 5 to 8 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. SW winds
gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
around 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide reaches 12.2 ft at Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible but don`t need much of a surge
to result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston around 1230 Monday
morning. Easterly flow is possible late Sun night, which could
lead to a enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...KJC/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary weakens today as high pressure remains
just offshore. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes tonight
and Sunday, then into eastern Canada Monday. A warm front moves
through Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The
low will remain to the north for the start of the new week, and
then high pressure will build east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Relatively flat flow aloft this morning gives way to weak ridge.
Weak frontal boundary nearby or just north weakens as warm front
remains well to the south and west.
Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region during the day
today.
Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny skies, once the low
clouds scour out.
High temperatures today away from the waters will rise into the
80s, if sunshine is in fact realized. 70s are forecast closer to
the coast due to onshore flow.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out a few showers across
western zones today as a weak shortwave moves through. Weak cape is
possible per NAM fcst soundings, but GFS shows enough mid level
warm air to provide a cap. Will maintain mention of thunder, but
generally expect isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge gives way to upstream trough, with lowering heights
noted across the northeast. At the surface, low pressure
traverses into Canada, pivoting north of the Great Lakes. A warm
front south and west of the area approaches tonight, and could
move through western portions of the area Sunday afternoon ahead
of a cold front.
Weak PVA is noted, and precipitable waters increase to 2 inches
plus by Sunday afternoon per GFS and NAM. Marginal instability
builds Sunday afternoon. Expect enough lift ahead of the warm
front for increasing coverage of showers tonight, and widespread
coverage Sunday due to plenty of lift, deep moisture and the frontal
boundary acting as a trigger. Ample shear could result in gusty
winds in any thunderstorm, especially western zones, and small
hail is possible as well. Heavy rain remains a threat, and timing
of enhanced thunderstorm activity would be during the afternoon
and into the evening. This is not a certainty however, as
instability remains marginal, and frontal position remains in
question.
With increasing clouds and onshore flow tonight, temps remain in the
60s. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening as the upper trough moves into the region and wind shear and
lift increase, with the strongest storms in the Lower Hudson Valley
into Northeastern New Jersey. The main threat will be strong and
potentially damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible. With
the loss of heating and the upper trough closing off and flattening
the threat of strong thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening
and overnight. The bulk of the shower activity moves east.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front dissipates nearby early this morning as high
pressure sets up offshore. A warm front will approach from the south
tonight.
Tough forecast into the morning hours as guidance is indicating
mainly IFR or lower at all terminals until the 12-15z time frame.
Conds are mainly holding steady at MVFR at all terminals except
KGON/KHPN...although cigs at a few of the non-TAF sites are starting
to decline. Guidance is indicating a light westerly flow by
12z...which may also keep these better conds across most of the TAF
sites. Will continue to watch trends and amend accordingly.
Otherwise...VFR returns by 16z all terminals with weak instability
developing n and w of NYC. A few isold showers or even a tstm is
possible during the aftn. Showers will increase in coverage
tonight...although it may hold off until aft 06z at all except KGON.
MVFR to IFR conds expected to return as well.
Winds may be more s-se than forecast aft 17z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Tonight...MVFR to IFR. showers with possibly an embedded tstm,
primarily west of KBDR-KISP.
.Sunday...Widespread IFR conditions developing. Showers with a
chance of thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through tonight outside
of any isolated thunderstorms that don`t fall apart before reaching
the waters.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southerly flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels Sunday night and continue through
Monday. Finally, gusts, mainly on the ocean waters, may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon/night.
SCA then possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night due to a
tightening pres gradient between departing low pres to the north and
high pres building to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected today.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to a new moon.
Tides are actually high enough to put some areas along the Long
Island south shore back bays into minor flood with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Only about 1/2 ft departures are needed for minor
flooding across the lower NY Harbor region. Will issue a coastal
flood advisory for the south shore back bays area, and a
statement for the lower NY Harbor region.
With stronger winds Sunday night, any coastal flooding could
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however.
As such, additional statements, or advisories may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...pw
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. While, Sunday
will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances for thunderstorms
as a low pressure system approaches and moves into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly
push southeastward across the southern portion of the fa. As the
front continues to slowly sag south and east, clearing will occur
behind the boundary. The front will gradually stall out in the
far southern parts of the CWA by later tonight.
Ridging will build in overnight at the surface and aloft. Cloud
cover will decrease and some patchy fog should form, although
clouds may continue to linger close to the boundary for the late
night hours for far southern areas. Expecting lows to drop into
the 50s with some 40s across the higher terrain of the western
Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will be the much nicer day of the weekend with dry
weather and warm temperatures as the upper ridge crests overhead.
Higher level clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon
especially later in the day in advance of an approaching low
pressure system. Forecasting high temperatures mainly ranging from
the mid 70s to mid 80s with the warmest readings up the Hudson
Valley and across northwestern Connecticut.
Clouds will be on the increase thickening and lowering Saturday
night as the ridge weakens and shifts off to the east and a warm
front approaches from the southwest. Isentropic forcing will
result in showers overspreading the area especially after midnight.
The warm front is not expected to lift north into or through the
local area. The system is expected to occluded Sunday afternoon
into the night as the upper trough becomes negatively titled. The
rainfall is expected to be moderate to possibly heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the QPF will occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Total
rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2 inches are forecast with locally
higher amounts around 3 inches possible. Showalter values are
forecast to lower to 0 to -2C indicating elevated instability will
be present so have chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening ahead of the occluding boundaries. Pops will decrease
Sunday night as the occluded boundary moves off to the area.
Sunday will be much cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to mid
70s due the extensive cloud cover and showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the extended period will be dominated by an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast, which will keep the
weather unsettled at times, with temperatures a little cooler than
recent days.
At the start of the period, a closed off upper level low will be
rotating from near the Great Lakes on Monday towards Quebec on
Tuesday. Although there will be clouds to start the day on Monday,
there should be some breaks of sun by Monday afternoon. Cannot rule
out some showers on Monday due to the cyclonic flow, but most areas
look to remain dry for much of Monday. Temperatures should warm well
into the 70s for most valley areas, with upper 60s over the higher
terrain.
As the upper level low moves towards Quebec, the trough axis will
move closer to the area for Tuesday. This should allow for a
greater coverage of showers on Tuesday as compared to Monday, with
slightly more clouds around. As a result of clouds/possible
showers, temps may be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday as compared to
Monday.
The upper level low will continue to sit and spin over Quebec on
Wednesday, as another fast moving shortwave rotates around backside
of the upper level low across the northern Great Lakes and heads
towards the area. This will continue to allow for some additional
showers, esp during the daytime hours thanks to diurnal heating.
Will continue to allow for a chc of showers for northern/western
areas, with slightly lower pops further south and east. Temps aloft
will be cooler, so highs will probably only reach the the 60s for
most areas.
The whole upper level trough will continue to track farther
south/east and move across northern New England by Thursday. With
the continued cyclonic flow, still cannot rule out some passing
showers from time to time, mainly for northern and high terrain
areas, although the chance should start to diminish by later in the
day as the system moves away from the area. Highs will range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.
The upper level trough will finally move away from the area by
Friday, but still cannot go with a dry forecast, since a surface
warm front will be lifting towards the area from the southwest. Will
continue to go with a low chc for rain showers with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky. Temps should be fairly close to seasonal
normals, with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through daybreak Saturday, areas of IFR CIGS and VSBYS will be
likely, as a fairly moist air mass remains in place with little or
no wind. There could be some slight drying and improvement toward
12Z, especially at KALB. The most persistent IFR conditions
through daybreak should be at KPSF.
After daybreak Saturday, any morning low clouds/FG/BR should
dissipate, allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take
until the mid to late morning for this to occur at KPOU, but
elsewhere the clearing should occur rather quickly. Much of the
day will just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Winds through daybreak should be light/variable at less than 4 KT.
On Saturday, winds should become NW to N at 4-8 KT. Winds will
become light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and
continue into Saturday evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. Minimum
relative humidity levels are expected to be around 40 percent in
the afternoon. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Saturday will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure
builds in. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region. The rainfall is expected to be moderate to
possibly heavy at times as precipitable water values rise to 1.5
to almost 2 inches Sunday. The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday
afternoon and evening with total rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2
inches are forecast with locally higher amounts around 3 inches
possible. Widespread flooding is not expected however substantial
within bank rises will occur.
Precipitation departures from normal since January 1st through
June 2nd...
Albany NY: -4.28 inches
Glens Falls NY: -3.10 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -5.65 inches
Bennington VT: -2.30 inches
Pittsfield MA: -3.28 inches
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...
Skies are showing signs of clearing but two areas of stratus are
moving into the area, one from the SW, the other from offshore SE
of MA. These two will attempt to fill in again tonight but may not
be as successful as previous nights mainly due to less advective
wind (mainly light and variable tonight). Still some fog/low
clouds can be expected, maintaining another somewhat mild
overnight. Slight adjustments made as the forecast appears on
track at this time.
Previous discussion...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
Overview and model preferences...
Deepening and gradually occluding system S of James Bay will
define the weather for much of early next week. 03.12Z model
guidance is settling on a solution for this feature which is
lending to higher confidence in day-to-day sensible wx details.
The initial reaction will be an area of widespread and possibly
heavy rainfall Sun as the trof prepares to cutoff taking on a
negative tilt. The second will be the from the destabilized nature
of the cutoff itself as it slowly meanders into QC, with a series
of shortwaves rotating around it. A blend of deterministic
guidance can still be used for much of the week, but ensembles
better support the slow transition away from the cutoff late in
the week.
Details...
Sun and Sun night...
Rain, heavy at times is the short definition for this Sunday.
Overruning precip event in advance of occluding low pres. Strong
isentropic lift implied by low-mid lvl veering profiles. Moisture
not lacking, as PWATs approach 2 inches (or nearly 2 std
deviations above normal) and K-values exceed 30. This is in part
thanks to another tropical moisture plume from the slowly eastward
progressing Bonnie. Therefore, will likely see pockets of heavier
rainfall through the afternoon and evening when lift peaks.
Widespread QPF values around 1.00 inches with locally heavier
amounts can be expected. Flooding risk mainly relegated to the
urban/small stream environments as main-stem rivers and streams
continue to run low. Will need to monitor for typical urban
flooding issues. Convective risk will be mainly S, where higher
sfc based CAPE, and warm sector moves through, coincident with
latest SPC DAY 3 Enhanced Risk. Srn New England never quite gets
into the warm sector, so any thunder would be widely scattered and
based on upper lvl instability as TT values approach 50. Still
something to watch as this may enhance the localized urban flood
risk. Rain tapers overnight and early Mon morning as occlusion
shifts N of the region.
Mon and Mon night...
Dry slot associated with slowly meandering cutoff and occlusion,
combined with w-nw cold advection will likely keep Mon mainly dry
in spite of cloud cover. Only NW reaches have best chance for
precip driven by upslope enhancement. Otherwise, breezy, with
temps at H85 near +12C temps could make a run into the low 80s,
but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover ultimately
observed.
Tue and Tue night...
Secondary cold front sweeps across New England exposing the cold
pool aloft. Plenty of lift, modest moisture with PWATs about 1.50+
inches, so widespread showers look likely. The one issue to
monitor is the convective potential. Shear is present, nearly 40
Kt 0-6KM, however the mitigating factor is the relatively low
instability. Sfc based CAPE generally below 1000j/kg. Even though
this synoptic setup is a typical one for New England SVR, this low
CAPE high shear environment makes it difficult to formulate an
outcome this far out. For now, will mention the risk. Temps near
to slightly above seasonal normals as the core of coldest air
holds until later in the week.
Wed and Wed night...
Cold pool settles aloft and thanks to continued cyclonic flow,
diurnally driven shra are possible. H5 temps near -18 to -20C
could support some t-storm development and a risk for graupel or
small hail with any shra/storms. This cold pool also suggests
cooler highs, mainly in the low-mid 70s rather than 80s
experienced earlier in the week.
Thu and Fri...
Ridging finally looks to attempt a shift, moving the core of the
cutoff to the E and allowing for anticyclonic flow aloft and a
building sfc high pres. Temps still near normal to seasonally cool
with the influence of the cold pool just to the NE. Models
indicating potential remnant ridge-rolling MCS, but this could
also be a convective feedback issue this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
VFR to start most places but gradual reduction to MVFR/IFR after
03Z especially Cape/Islands and SE MA. Inland, some ground fog
possible especially if some clearing is observed during the early
morning hours. Winds become light and variable.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun and Sun night...Moderate confidence.
Mix of MVFR/IFR with rain/fog most of Sun and Sun night with low
pres moving west of the region.
Mon...Moderate confidence.
VFR after early rains end, some lower cigs possible, but risk for
rain diminishes, breezy W-NW winds.
Tue and Wed...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR although afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...Moderate Confidence.
Deepening low pres will stay well NW of the waters with a front
moving through Sun night. Winds from S-SW Sun to to the W on Mon.
Gusts around 25 kt are possible late Sun and again Mon afternoon.
Seas in the meantime build, peaking Mon morning 5-8 ft and
diminishing thereafter. A period of small craft advisories may be
needed. Rain/fog lead to vsby restrictions especially Sun and Sun
night.
Tue and Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather expected outside of a shower or
leftover T-storms.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E Coast tides build through the weekend, peaking with a 12.2 ft
tide at Boston around 1230 Monday morning. Easterly flow is
possible both Fri and late Sun night, which occlude lead to a
enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary enters the region tonight and washes out
over the area into Saturday while weak high pressure sets up just
offshore. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Sunday
moves into eastern Canada Monday, bring a warm front through
Sunday morning and a cold front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The low will remain to the north for the start of the new
week, and then high pressure will build east for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient CAPE and a weak shortwave moving in, there will be
the chance of showers/tstms NW of the city this evening. Then the
lift weakens while the atmosphere becomes more stable, so will go
with a dry forecast for the overnight hours. Onshore flow will help
keep it mostly cloudy through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a mostly cloudy start, turning partly sunny for Saturday
afternoon with weak high pressure over the area. A shortwave
pushes in from the west during the afternoon, and with building
CAPE, there is a chance of showers and tstms over roughly the
western half of the CWA. Will go with lower-end chc to slight chc
pops since it seems that moisture will be fairly shallow. Used
superblend for high temps.
A warm front associated with low pressure to the west then begins to
approach from the SW Saturday night. Isentropic lift increases
over our area ahead of the front. In addition...a shortwave is
progged to approach and enter the vicinity of the NW zones. Also,
a theta-e ridge builds in and PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.00
inches. This combination of lift and moisture will increase rain
chances through the night, with rain likely for at least roughly
the NW half of the cwa by the end of the night. There could be a
thunderstorm, but probably isolated in nature, and more likely to
occur over the western half of the cwa where lift and CAPE will be
greater. Some heavy downpours are possible during the overnight
hours, but with the flow aloft increasing, storms should at least
not be very slow-moving.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper shortwave is becoming negatively tilted Sunday morning
through the upper midwest and Ohio valley. The trough moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic states and closes off Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. At the surface a frontal system will be moving
through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Sunday morning a
warm front moves through the region and the area will be in the
warm sector through the day, and a weak thermal ridge develops.
Even with the possibility of on going showers Sunday, daytime
heating will be enough for destabilization to occur as low level
lapse rates increase, and low level moisture also increases. Most
unstable CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon. Strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and into the evening as the upper trough moves into the
region and wind shear and lift increase, with the strongest storms
in the Lower Hudson Valley into Northeastern New Jersey. The main
threat will be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail is also possible. With the loss of heating and the upper
trough closing off and flattening the treat of strong
thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening and overnight.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure will give way to a dissipating cold front
approaching from the west this afternoon.
Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to start, but with
abundant moisture all terminals should return to IFR tonight as the
flow weakens. In the meantime, there is still some time for
improvement to MVFR as the batch of showers over Long Island
continues to move off to the east. Farther west, showers developing
ahead of the approaching cold front may impact KSWF prior to
00Z.
S/SE flow under 10 kt will continue into the evening before
becoming light overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 15Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of
the city.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through Saturday night
outside of any possible thunderstorms.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southeast flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels. Small craft seas likely linger into
Tuesday as a strong northwest flow prevails behind the cold front.
Finally, occasional gusts, mainly on the ocean waters,may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall into this evening is probably under a tenth of
an inch. No widespread significant rainfall is expected on
Saturday.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to an
upcoming new moon Sunday evening. Tides are actually high enough
to put some areas along the Long Island south shore back bays into
minor flood starting with tonight`s high tide cycle. Only about
1/2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding across the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens where a statement has been
issued for this evening. Expecting localized minor flooding here.
Tides will continue to run high enough to put some areas along
the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with the
high tide cycles Saturday night and Sunday night. Tidal
departures of 1/4 to 1/2 foot would also put some areas along
western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into minor flood
during the higher of the two daily tides, mainly Sunday night.
Background anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain
so through the weekend, so additional statements, or advisories
may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
- Cooler, unsettled weather pattern possible for rest of early June
*/ DISCUSSION...
An unsettled, cooler weather pattern advertised over New England per
averaged 1 to 2 week forecasts for early June via Climate Prediction
Center. Interrogating the bigger picture, low pressure maintains
over the N Pacific E of which progressive flow allows Pacific-origin
energy to waffle the EPO/PNA pattern with either ridging or cyclo-
genesis over the W CONUS mainly across the N / Canadian Rockies.
With Icelandic / Greenland ridging parent with a N Atlantic cutoff
low likely contributing to a -NAO/-AO pattern, E progressing storms
are slowed across Eastern N America creating a favorable environment
for mature storms to undergo maturation into occlusion. An ensemble
forecast evaluation shows that within such an environment H5 heights
are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal while H85 temperatures
are considerably below average beginning Sunday into early next week
which are discussed in detail below.
So to begin, a soaker Sunday into Sunday night. Widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms given a number of
convective indices just around their respective thresholds. An over-
running setup of S/SW flow of Gulf moisture (precipitable waters +2
standard deviations and within the 99th percentile of climatology)
undergoing isentropic ascent NE parent with a lifting warm front and
mid level vortex energy. Focus on convergent H925-85 flow beneath
favorable diffluence aloft more so in areas of with any instability
likely elevated. A challenge to nail down exactly where but thinking
that perhaps the 03.0z NAM may have the right idea with a secondary
low along the coast given the anomalous setup. Aside, the take-away
is that there will be a good slug of rain with rainfall amounts
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, locally higher around 1.50 inches.
Strong signal of such outcomes per ensemble means and probabalistics
for +1 inch. Maybe some nuisance poor-drainage flooding but honestly
feel the region should handle it with rainfall occurring over a
longer period of time. Otherwise, cool E/SE onshore flow ahead of
the warm front with deeper moisture aloft, likely some low cloud and
mist / fog issues throughout the period. Another challenge is when
the warm front will lift N. Possibly late Sunday into Sunday night
making for a non-diurnal temperature trend into Monday as flow
reverts S.
For Monday through Wednesday, contending with the occluded, stacked
low N and W over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Monday looks to
remain dry beneath the dry slot entraining into the system. But over
time the cold pool and cyclonic flow wobble S/E. With any mid-level
vortex energy rotating through the S periphery of the low combined
with diurnal heating, there is the chance for shower / thunderstorm
activity. Limited instability within a highly sheared environment
given poor environmental lapse rates, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a convective threat as originally thought, but will still
keep it in mind. Chance PoPs with higher confidence N/W closer to
the low. Temperatures closer to average.
End of the week, will keep Thursday dry. Thereafter a fair amount of
model forecast variability lending to low confidence. An ensemble
forecast approach has pacific-origin energy from the W potentially
interacting / phasing with energy drawn S out of the Arctic. It is
perhaps that the overall trend is for continued troughing across the
NE CONUS lending to a cooler, unsettled weather pattern as the
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
Though 00z this evening...Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR CIGS
should gradually improve to mainly VFR, except for portions of the
immediate south coast, Cape and Islands where lower CIGS may
persist. A few showers with the low risk of an isolated t-storm
across western MA through early this evening.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR away from the south coast
this evening, but low end MVFR-IFR with even some LIFR conditions
should develop in low clouds and areas of fog. Exact timing
uncertain.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, possible +RA with a lesser risk of
TSRA. Winds turning S and increasing with the potential for gusts
around 25 kts late Sunday evening, gradually backing S/SW overnight.
Potentially improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, dissipating into evening and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...
Increasing E/SE flow overnight with higher confidence of marine
stratus along with mist / drizzle / fog conditions developing.
Threat of visibility impacts down a mile or two. Waves below 5 feet.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, potentially heavy at times and possibly with some
embedded thunder. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind
which winds back out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 25 kts
throughout the period. Small craft advisories under consideration
along with waves on the outer waters building 5 to 6 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Feel conditions will be mainly dry with the primary threat being SW
winds gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters.
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
of 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
Today and Tonight, an upper level trough across the northern high
plains will amplify as it digs southeast into the upper Midwest
Tonight. The low-level CAA this afternoon across the northern and
central plains will cause a cold front to push southward across the
CWA this evening and through the early morning hours of Saturday. A
cut off low within the southern branch of the upper jet will remain
nearly stationary Today across east central KS but will be kicked
east ahead of the northern stream upper level trough digging
southeast across the midwest Tonight.
Today should be dry across the CWA as the southern stream cutoff
upper low remains well south of the CWA. The southeast counties may
see periods of high and mid level clouds through the day. Highs
Today will reach the mid 80s across much of the area with lower 80s
across the southeast counties due to less insolation this afternoon.
As the cold front approaches the northern counties of the CWA
combined with ascent ahead of the H5 trough digging southeast across
the northern and Central Plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms
may develop across the northern counties of the CWA after 8 PM. A
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will then push southeast
across east central KS during the early morning hours if Saturday.
The best rain chances Tonight will be across northeast and east
central KS, closer to the stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough
digging southeast into the upper Midwest. The 00Z NAM and ARW only
show isolated showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the
front and pushing southeast across northeast and east central KS.
The GFS and NMM have more of a solid band of QPF developing ahead of
the surface front Tonight across the CWA. At this time, I`m going
with a blend and will keep 30 pops across the northern counties this
evening, with 25-30 pops across east central KS after midnight. The
western and southwest counties may only see a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the night. Due to the uncertainty
in coverage, I have kept QPF below 0.05 inches.
The 00Z NAM model shows MUCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 ahead of the
surface front but all other models show MUCAPES remaining below 1000
J/KG. Therefore, the chances for severe storms are slim. I suppose a
few storms may be strong along the NE border this evening and may
produce small hail and gusty winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
Upper level pattern continues to amplify with a large ridge building
over the Western CONUS. Both NAM and GFS suggest there could be
some instability in the afternoon with a wrap around shortwave
from the parent upper low over the Upper MS Valley/Western Great
Lakes vicinity. Not ruling out a weak storm or two during peak
heating time frames mainly over extreme portions of northeastern
KS. No severe storms expected though as the parent low continues
to lift to the northeast through the day with dry advection behind
it. Generally, expecting the weekend and the week ahead to remain
mostly dry with a broad ridge building over the the Central CONUS
into next week. There could be a couple small chances for some
relatively weak areas of isentropic lift to develop and cause some
showers or weak storms on Tuesday, however, have not inserted POPs
that would indicate this as signals continue to be weak but would
likely be confined to a small area near the KS/NE border vicinity.
Later part of the week, there may be a weak shortwave that breaks
out of the Central Rockies that could provide enough lift over a
moistening air mass to cause early morning time frame storms but
only have slight chances as anything this far out would be hard to
resolve at the current time. Some indication remains that there
may be a deeper trough develop over the Northern Rockies late in
the period. Do expect that a strong ridge axis will make its way
overhead by late week and potentially push temps into the low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
Expect VFR conditions through most of the the next 24 hours. There
could be some isolated thunderstorms at the terminals after 6Z SAT
but these should move out by 10Z SAT. At this time POPs look too
low to place in VCTS but later shifts may have to insert VCTS into
TAFs. There may also be scattered to broken MVFR ceilings behind
a cold front after 9Z SAT.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over central TX
with additional upper energy diving southeast across the northern
Rockies. At the surface, ridge extends from the Great Lakes,
through Missouri and into the OK Panhandle. Meanwhile, surface
low is stacked under the upper low over north central TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
A couple showers/storms will be possible today over far southeast
KS on the northeast side of the upper low with the remainder of
the area seeing plenty of sun and near or slightly above normal
highs. The upper energy over the northern Rockies will continue to
dive southeast and will track across the northern Plains today and
into the northern Mississippi Valley tonight. This feature will
push a cold front through the forecast area tonight. Showers and
storms will be associated with this front with the more widespread
activity expected to be further northeast associated with the
better upper dynamics. So for now, just expecting some iso-sct
activity with the better chances over the northeast portion of the
forecast area. By 12z Sun, surface high pressure is expected to be
centered over the high Plains providing plenty of sunshine.
Temps are not expected to cool much behind the front, mainly due
to good mixing up to around 800mb both Sat and Sun. So we are
still looking for highs in the low to mid 80s both Sat and Sun.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
By Mon, deep upper low will be over southeast Ontario/eastern
Great Lakes with upper ridging over the southwest Conus. There is
some model agreement that a weak slow moving impulse will be
situated over the central Great Basin. This feature will weaken as
it tracks east and may bring some precip to western KS Tue night
into Wed morning. Noticed that the 00z ECMWF did come around
slightly to the GFS, with troughing over the western CONUS by Thu
and ridging increasing over the Rockies into the Plains. This
will promote warming temps next week with 90s expected for many
areas by Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Some low clouds will spread northward into southeast Kansas this
morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the remainder
of the region for the next 24hrs. A weak frontal boundary will
slide soutward across central Kansas late tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 84 64 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
Hutchinson 85 62 84 56 / 10 20 10 0
Newton 84 63 83 57 / 10 20 10 0
ElDorado 83 63 84 58 / 10 20 10 0
Winfield-KWLD 82 63 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
Russell 85 59 84 54 / 10 20 0 0
Great Bend 86 60 84 55 / 10 20 0 0
Salina 85 61 83 56 / 10 30 10 0
McPherson 85 61 83 56 / 10 20 10 0
Coffeyville 81 63 84 59 / 30 20 20 0
Chanute 83 63 84 59 / 20 20 20 0
Iola 83 63 84 59 / 20 20 10 0
Parsons-KPPF 82 63 84 59 / 30 20 20 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
An upper level trough traversing the northern plains this morning
will carve out a trough over the Great Lakes and eastern United
States through early next week. The associated weak cold front
will pass across Kansas tonight, with surface high pressure
building into the plains this weekend. Upper level ridging will
continue to develop over the Rockies this weekend and then shift
into the plains by mid next week. A weak surface trough will
develop over the plains by mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level
trough over the northern plains will pass across Kansas this
evening. There is a small chance of t-storms along the front this
evening. These storms are not expected to be severe, but small hail
and strong wind gusts are possible. Temperatures ahead of the front
will warm nicely into the mid to upper 80s with partly to mostly
sunny skies. Winds will become northerly tonight in the wake of the
front. Lows are expected to be in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday and then
near 90 for Monday and Tuesday. Hotter temperatures can be
expected by Wednesday and Thursday as low to mid level downslope
flow develops in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may reach into the
mid 90s and possibly the upper 90s in far western Kansas. The hot
weather will likely persist into next weekend although a weak cold
front and shortwave trough may pass by Saturday or Sunday. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
starting Monday, especially in far western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Areas of radiation fog attempting to form this morning, with
boundary layer RH near 100%, but a light downslope SW breeze has
mostly prevented fog so far. Kept VCFG through 14z at GCK/DDC with
high humidity and areas of reduced vis in BR. Light SW winds into
the afternoon. Weak cold frontal passage expected during the
00-03z Sat timeframe. Models suggest enough moisture and
instability along this boundary to allow isolated -TSRA this
evening. Confidence on any direct convective impacts to any of the
terminals is low. Only included BKN mid clouds and VCTS/CB
mention, which is supported by the latest HRRR solution for 21z
Fri. North surface winds and SKC expected by 12z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 57 83 55 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 89 55 84 53 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 89 59 84 56 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 87 59 86 54 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 86 57 82 54 / 10 20 0 0
P28 85 60 87 57 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
155 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WET
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ON FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. ELECTED TO HANG ON TO POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. LIKELY POPS LOOK NECESSARY IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
DRY WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY SUNSET, BUT
JUST BARELY, AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT GETS. GOING TO HOLD ON TO A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE FAR AWAY.
THE FRONT MAKES A NORTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, INDUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT AS MOISTURE BUILDS.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BECOME A CONCERN GIVEN 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING ON POTENTIALLY WET GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE ULTIMATE FATE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS WEEKEND. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A PATTERN CHANGE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. IS STILL IN THE CARDS, AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST POTENTIALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
THURSDAY. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF
THE AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AS WELL, IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANOTHER LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Front stalls across the area tonight with unsettled weather
lingering into the weekend. Weather pattern stabilizes by early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12 am update...Stationary front is still just to the Northwest of
Columbus and Cincinnati. Heavy rain showers and even isolated
embedded thunderstorms will move across the forecast area over
the next few hours. Have updated PoP based on current RADAR trends
and progressed current precipitation field across the forecast
area based on meso model guidance. Main risk overnight will be low
potential for flash flooding...however the threat will likely be
very localized in slow moving cells.
Previous Discussion...Sent a quick update to adjust hourly PoPs.
Used the HRRR model for PoPs through 12Z overnight. The rest of
forecast remains on track.
Previous discussion below...
Showers and thunderstorms on the increase across the forecast
area this afternoon. Cold front currently nearing KCMH- KCVG line.
That front does not have a whole lot of push behind it, so will
gradually sink into forecast area today and tonight...eventually
stalling out along or south of I-64. Decent instability developed
this morning with some sun...and still a few pockets of sunshine
will drifting around this afternoon. Currently seeing about
1000j/kg CAPE in the Ohio River Valley with 500-1000j/kg across
the eastern CWA. However, little to no shear will keep storms from
becoming very organized. This also leads to slow storm movement,
making heavy rainfall likely in any of the stronger showers and
storms. Flash flood guidance is running pretty high so widespread
water concerns are not expected. However with precipitable water
values from 1.5-2.0 inches localized issues cannot be ruled out,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas.
Have thunder tapering off late this evening, with POPs hitting a
minimum overnight. However kept mostly chance pops going all night
with the cold front sinking in and stalling. Areas of fog are
likely tonight where evening showers/storms leave pockets of
higher moisture. Have POPs and thunder back on the increase
Friday even though we will not see any strong solar heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An active period for weather with plenty of precipitation moving
through the area. Overall pattern has an upper level trough
digging sharply south over IT and will slowly move eastward. High
theta-e air will be lofted northward along and ahead of an upper
level jet which will put our forecast area under high chance for
PoPs. Given high moisture content and instability, we may have to
watch for water issues under any storms that do form.
A cold front will finally drive drier air into the region Sunday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Larger system that affected the region over the weekend should
slowly be pulling east of the area by Monday. A nice large ridge
builds in behind the upper level trough for quieter weather
through the majority of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still a very tricky forecast as stationary boundary remains in
place over Ohio and weak upper level disturbances will push
through the region to produce showers and thunderstorms into the
dawn hours and then again in the afternoon and evening on Friday.
Through early morning fog will also be an issue after any
showers move through over the next few hours. As light winds
combining with the rainfall yesterday and continuing this
morning...fog will be likely at all sites. However...still some
uncertainty on how dense the fog will become. For now I have coded
IFR conditions through the early morning hours at all
terminals...but am most confident HTS...CRW...PKB...and EKN will
see VLIFR to IFR conditions. Conditions will likely start to
improve after after 12Z to 13Z...then the chance for showers and
storms this afternoon may bring tempo IFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog through daybreak
and also variable conditions expected with showers and storms this
afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/03/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into the weekend and fog
during the nighttime hours.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1029 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather through Monday, with slight cooling afterwards.
Scattered thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday...mainly
over the mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the past hour across
the Sierra north of interstate 80. Activity should continue over
this area and spread into Shasta county through the night as
advertised by short term models. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies
and generally light winds. Current forecast handles this scenario
well and no evening update will be needed.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A thick layer of high clouds over the area has been keeping
temperatures cooler today. Valley highs should mostly end up being
between 95 and 100. Marine layer along the coast while still
shallow is showing signs of deepening. While this will not help us
today we should start to see some breeze through the delta tonight
that will help continue the cooling trend that is starting today.
GFS and NAM indicate showers and possible thunderstorms forming
this evening and continuing through the night and again on Sunday.
The HRRR indicates the activity will be delayed until late
evening. It starts the activity over Plumas County and spreads it
northward into Shasta County around midnight.
The center of the low moves over the interior by Sunday morning.
As the low continues to move closer to the coast this evening we
should see the high clouds move northward. Areas that clear over
the mountains will likely have the best chances this evening for
any activity to occur and mainly south of I-80. The low should
bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on
Sunday. The main focus continues to be over the mountains with the
GFS indicating some activity might make it into the far north end
of the valley late tonight and Sunday.
As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture
that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional
thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than late
tonight and Sunday.
A better marine layer is expected along the coast with delta
breezes that will keep area temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
with only the well inland areas topping out at around 100 degrees
through Monday. Greater cooling is expected Tuesday as a deep
trough of low pressure develops off the coast and replaces the
high pressure ridge over the area with cyclonic flow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Forecast models appear to be in decent agreement to an upper level
low pressure system that will slide southward from the northern
Pacific Ocean Thursday through next weekend. There are slightly
different timings among the forecast models, however the forecast
trend is towards cooler high temperatures for the valley in the
mid to upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of next week. There are
also chances for thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the
northern mountains.
The main lift with the upper level system will occur in the
Pacific northwest towards the end of next week, so most of the
storm activity will remain north of the forecast area.
Surprisingly however, forecast models are not hinting at more
chances for precipitation for northern portions of the valley even
with a passage of the trough. The GFS forecast is the most
aggressive at this time with surface precipitation, but other
forecasts keep the northern valley dry. For now, the forecast
will continue with the trend towards a dry forecast. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms may increase for the northern mountains
and northern valley with future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours. An upper
level disturbance will bring increased high level cloud cover for
the valley through tonight. Clearing should begin towards late
Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon. Light wind shifts are expected
for the terminals through the forecast period.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
837 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system moving across California and into the
Great Basin, will spread cooling inland through Monday. It will
be slightly warmer again midweek, then cooler into next weekend as a
larger low pressure trough develops over the West. Areas of night and
morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog will spread farther into
the valleys Monday into Tuesday...then again for the latter part of
the week with slow afternoon clearing near the beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Marine clouds were widespread offshore and extended up to 25 miles
inland. Patchy dense fog was occurring near the inland extent of the
cloud layer and over the higher coastal terrain. The 12Z Miramar
sounding had a 12.5 degree C inversion based near 1475 feet MSL. This
was about 400 feet higher than yesterday. The surface pressure
gradients showed solid onshore trends this morning at 4-7 MBS KSAN-
Deserts and winds were responding in the wind-prone mtn/desert areas
with peak westerly gusts 25 to 40 mph.
Based on the sounding and the synoptic trends, today should be
cooler all areas, although still quite hot in the deserts. Clearing
will be slower today, and may be incomplete along the immediate coast
due to the deeper cloud layer and onshore trends.
Look for the marine layer to deepen, with associated low clouds
extending even farther inland tonight into Monday morning, with less
fog over coastal areas.
From previous discussion...
A weak low pressure system moving inland through California will
bring a cooling trend into Monday with high temperatures cooling
to near average. Weak high pressure will bring around 5 degrees of
inland warming for Tuesday and Wednesday...then slow cooling into
next weekend with inland high temperatures falling below average
for Friday and Saturday.
The marine layer will deepen into Monday with low clouds and
patchy fog extending into the western valleys this morning...and
into the far inland valleys for Monday into Tuesday. A slightly
shallower marine layer for Wednesday...then gradually deeper into
next weekend with night and morning low clouds and patchy fog
extending into the far inland valleys. Slow afternoon clearing
will continue at some beaches.
The onshore flow will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and
deserts each late afternoon through late evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
051530Z...Coast/Valleys...Widespread low clouds with bases 600-900
ft MSL still extends about 15 mi inland this morning. Local vis 1-
3SM in fog continues over higher coastal terrain. Expect clearing
inland between 16Z and 18Z...and around 20Z along the coast. Little,
if any, clearing is expected at the beaches. Stratus with bases
around 800-1200 ft will move into the coastal airports after
02Z Mon...spreading about 20 mi inland overnight.
Mountains/Deserts...SCT clouds at or above 15000 ft MSL with
unrestricted visibility through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
830 AM...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Apple and
Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Bernardino and
Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Orange County
Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino
County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego
County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper low moving across northern California
will result in continued cooling today. A gradual cooling trend
is then forecast to continue for much of the week as an upper
trough over the Eastern Pacific slowly approaches the West Coast.
Except for occasional patchy drizzle near the coast, precipitation
is not expected through the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 3:50 AM PDT Sunday...A weak upper low moving
inland across Northern California has been producing thunderstorms
across the mountains of Northeast California overnight. This low`s
primary impact on our weather has been to increase the depth of
the marine layer and bring about cooling. Data from the Fort Ord
profiler indicate the marine layer depth has increased to about
1500 feet, deep enough for low clouds to develop into the coastal
valleys and around San Francisco Bay overnight. The cooling trend
that got underway yesterday will continue today. The airmass above
the marine layer remains quite warm and so those locations still
isolated from the marine air influence (i.e., valleys well inland
and the hills above 1500 feet) will remain quite warm today. All
other locations will be significantly cooler than they were on
Friday.
The upper low will move east and over Nevada by tonight and weak
shortwave ridging will develop in its wake over California by late
Monday...resulting in slight warming of the airmass aloft by then.
However, temperatures at the surface are expected to continue to
trend downward in most areas on Monday and Tuesday as onshore flow
gradually increases. By midweek a longwave trough over the Eastern
Pacific will approach the West Coast, which will result in further
cooling during the second half of the week. Both the GFS and ECMWF
forecast temperatures to drop below normal in most areas by
midweek and then remain on the cool side of normal through the end
of the week. The upper trough that will approach later in the week
is not expected to generate any precipitation over our area,
except perhaps for some patchy night and morning coastal drizzle
from a deep marine layer.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:00 AM PDT Sunday...An upper level low is moving
northeast across the North Bay counties this morning. This has
deepened the marine layer to near 2000 feet and brought stratus
into the SFO Bay Area. Southerly flow above the boundary layer
will help to clear the stratus out by 17z at SFO and 18z around
the bay.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR/IFR conditions through 17z.
SFO Bridge Approach...MVFR/IFR conditions not clearing out
completely until 18z.
Monterey Bay Terminals....Stratus extends into the Salinas Valley
this morning. IFR conditions not clearing until after 18z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 2:38 AM PDT Sunday...A thermal low over the
desert southwest will keep light to moderate northwest winds
through thursday. these generally light winds will in turn yield
gentle seas. increasing northerly winds and seas are anticipated
for the second half of the week as an upper level trough
approaches the pacific northwest.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
449 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorm are expected to develop
today. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
overnight tonight and monday. Precipitation chances will diminish by
the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tonight)
Forecast challenges have increased for today. Over the past week,
the models remained in good agreement regarding our convective
potential, as both the NAM and GFS remained very consistent in their
forecasts/instability parameters. That has all changes this morning.
This may be in part due to the closed mid-level low tracking farther
north than what was forecast even yesterday. Originally, this low
was expected to track on a San Francisco to Reno line. However, this
morning`s water vapor imagery shows it tracking towards Ukiah as of
3 AM, with it expected to reside just north of Reno by tomorrow
night. This is also a slightly slower pace than forecast over the
past few days.
As the system tracks slightly further north, so does the better mid-
level lapse rates. This in turn has an effect of the forecast
instability, and it`s here where the models are now at odds with one
another. The NAM still shows robust instability, with MUCAPEs over
3000 J/kg across the interior, north of Ukiah. Meanwhile, the GFS
keeps any negative lifted indices and MUCAPES of 1000 J/kg or better
near the Trinity Alps. However, the NAM seems to be doing a slightly
better job with its 700-500mb lapse rates based on the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Taking a look at the current surface observations
across the interior, the GFS is too dry and the NAM is too wet. This
is what makes today`s forecast more of a challenge.
The general model consensus indicates cloud cover may be less in
coverage than what was thought yesterday, which would allow more
instability to develop. Given the increase in model disagreement,
the forecast wasn`t changed much, aside from some minor areal
changes to the thunderstorm mention in the zones. Splitting the
difference with the instability fields seems like a good first guess
for now, which places locations north and east of a Ferndale to
Covelo line "most in play" for any potential thunderstorm
development, some of which could be strong severe across the
interior. Revisions to today`s forecast may need to be made once
visible satellite imagery and afternoon heating helps define where
the best potential for this will occur.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Our storm system will continue its slow eastward trek during the
next couple of days. Moisture will remain plentiful during the day
Monday, with disturbances aloft rotating around the low bringing
bursts of ascent and better lapse rates aloft. Both the GFS and NAM
show extreme instability, with a much better convective signal in
the model precipitation fields. If all this was to verify, strong to
severe thunderstorm chances increase across the interior. Yet, given
the week-long consistency in their forecasts before tonight, one
can`t help but feel like the mouse chasing the cheese. It`s only one
data set that was drastically different tonight, so we`ll stay the
course with our previous thinking/forecasts.
Thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday near the Trinity Alps, but no
strong convection is expected. Our rainfall chances will decrease
for most of Northwestern California from mid-week on, with any
precipitation chances remaining near the Trinity Alps and portions
of Del Norte County, as these locations will be closer to better
dynamics aloft, associated with an incoming trough, located across
the Pacific Northwest. Tempertures will remain near seasonal values
before cooling slightly towards the end of the week. /PD
&&
.AVIATION...Interesting airmass structure this morning with weak
onshore flow at the surface and weak offshore flow aloft. At the
coast a blanket of ifr type fog is enveloping the coastal terminals
while higher convective clouds move from east to west aloft. Expect
the fog and low clouds to linger through the mid to late morning
hours before lifting and burning off. Mid to higher clouds will
continue to filter the skies above as an upper level low impacts the
region. Some isolated thunderstorms have been observed across the
interior early this morning and may float westward over the coast
later this morning. Interior sites will continue to be vfr however
anticipate some more thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and
tonight...thus the possibility of heavy showers or gusty winds exist
over the interior air terminals. jt
&&
.MARINE...Ridging offshore coupled with a thermal trough over the
California interior will maintain light to moderate northerly winds
over the waters through the weekend. Northerly winds will increase
tonight and Monday. Winds may reach 20-25 kt on Monday in the outer
waters and small craft advisories will be necessary. Short period N-
NW seas will also increase in response to the winds offshore.
Current indications are for steep seas to reach 9-11 ft in the outer
waters and 7-8 ft inside 10nm. Wave periods will continue to be
mixed on Monday, though most of the energy will likely be centered
near the shorter periods. Thus expect wave steepness to increase on
Monday and advisories may be necessary inside 10nm. 12z spectral
models, the North American Mesoscale model as well as the GFS
ensemble members were in decent agreement with winds shifting around
to the south on Tuesday as a low spins up offshore. Maintained the
forecast to indicate southerly winds whipping around Cape Mendocino
on Tuesday. Going into Wed and Thu, winds look fairly light with
relatively low seas. The models have not been doing great that far
out, so confidence is only average at this time. djb/jt
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An upper level impulse centered over nw ca has
initiated the first round of convective activity early this morning.
(see additional tstorm discussion above) A handful of strikes have been
observed over the Modoc...Burney Basin and just south of Mount
Shasta. A couple of strikes were also observed over NE Trinity
County. The band of thunderstorms should continue through the
early morning hours and may even be enhanced before diminishing
later this morning. Storm motion is out of the southeast so any of
these storms that hold together may continue to drift over the
interior zones and may even reach the coast. Skies should be
mostly cloudy with mid and high clouds from these storms hanging
around through early afternoon. Then expecting skies to clear a
bit in the late afternoon which may promote another round of
thunderstorms late in the day and overnight tonight. Increasing
mid and upper level moisture should help these storms become more
on the wet side with possible areas of heavy showers or even some
nickle size hail. TONKIN
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
448 AM MST SUN JUN 5 2016
.UPDATE...updated aviation and fire weather discussions...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure aloft will persist over the region today
leading to very hot afternoon high temperatures with records
expected in many lower desert locales. Excessive heat will continue
across south-central Arizona Monday with slight cooling over
southeast California and southwest Arizona. A gradual cooling trend
is expected to develop during the early to middle portion of the
week as a Pacific low pressure system moves into the western states
north of Arizona, with temperatures likely to drop to near normal
values by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level anticyclone remained firmly in place across the
desert southwest early this morning; latest plot data indicated that
500mb heights reached 595dm across central and western portions of
AZ as well as far southeast CA. Under sunny skies yesterday,
widespread high temperatures over the lower deserts ranged between
113 and 116 degrees with records set in number of locations. Very
little change is expected today as the upper high will remain firmly
in place, with little change expected in the boundary layer; 850mb
temps will stay above 30C over the lower AZ deserts and above 32C
over portions of south central AZ. Current NAEFS Percentiles data
from the Ensemble Situational Awareness Table call for 850bm temps
in excess of the 99th percentile over most of the lower deserts, and
at 700mb the temps reach or exceed maximum values based on current
climatology. Thus the very hot airmass will stay entrenched over the
area today and we can expect another day of record breaking high
temperatures over many of the lower hotter deserts. Phoenix should
reach to 114 degrees and this would break the old record of 112
degrees set in 1990.
Model guidance including GEFS ensemble output continue to call for a
a weak upper low to migrate inland over central CA tonight and then
move inland into Nevada and northern AZ on Monday. This low
initially will lower 500mb heights over the central deserts down
around 588dm but the boundary layer will remain hot with 850mb temps
over the south central deserts still in excess of 31C. We will keep
the Excessive Heat Warning going through 8pm Monday for all of the
south central desert zones, and based on current HIL data, the
warning will remain in effect for the higher terrain of southern
Gila County as well. Temperatures over the southwest deserts and far
SE California should drop to 110 or below and fall slightly below
heat warning criteria on Monday.
On Tuesday, operational runs from the GFS and ECMWF as well as
ensemble guidance call for the weak low to slowly slide east across
Arizona as an open wave, ushering in slightly cooler air to the
lower deserts which will allow the deserts to mostly fall below 110
degrees and below heat warning thresholds. As such the Excessive
Heat Warning will no longer be in effect. The passing low will be
very dry with just a few high clouds present for continued mostly
sunny skies.
Wednesday through Saturday...Operational runs from both the GFS and
ECMWF both call for a progressive upper level trof to gradually
approach the west coast, bringing generally dry southwest flow aloft
to the area and ushering in a gradual cooling trend with time. NAEFS
and GEFS spaghetti ensemble members do become rather chaotic over
time but the preponderance of the members agree with the idea of the
large trof approaching, and by the start of the weekend it will be
moving inland and into the desert southwest. By Friday, most of the
lower deserts should see high temperatures running at or below 105
degrees and starting to approach seasonal normals. There is one
wrinkle with this forecast situation; as the trof approaches
southerly low level flow will advect low/mid level moisture
northward and into the eastern mountains. There will be modest
instability and CAPE developing mainly east of Globe, sufficient to
support a slight chance of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms over the higher terrain east of Phoenix Thursday
afternoon through Friday evening. We have raised POPs into the
slight chance category for AZZ024 for that time period with the main
focus for convection to be east of Globe. Confidence in the
potential for convection east of Phoenix remains moderate at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong high pressure and very hot conditions to continue into Monday.
Skies to remain mostly clear under the dry conditions. Winds to
follow diurnal patterns with some afternoon gustiness likely. Winds
will increase across southeast California this evening with westerly
gusts up to 25 kts at KIPL. Overall, limited to no aviation impacts
through Monday morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
As very strong high ridging starts to weaken, temperatures will
gradually cool through the period. On Tuesday temperatures will range
from 100 to 108, falling into the 96-103 range by Saturday. Generally
breezy southwesterly winds can be expected each afternoon, however
winds will be stronger Thursday afternoon and evening with gusts up
to 15 to 25 mph. These gusty winds, in combination with low minimum
humidity values, will allow conditions to flirt with critical
thresholds, primarily west of Phoenix on Thursday. Overnight
recoveries will be poor to fair throughout the period, offering
little relief to any fire suppression operations. Increasing moisture
late in the week will also bring a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona which may include some
dry lightning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures listed below:
Date Phoenix Yuma
---- --------- ------
June 5 112 in 1990 115 in 1957
June 6 110 in 2013 114 in 1928
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ022>024-027-
028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ020-
021-025-026.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ031>033.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez/Kuhlman
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1029 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather through Monday, with slight cooling afterwards.
Scattered thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday...mainly
over the mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the past hour across
the Sierra north of interstate 80. Activity should continue over
this area and spread into Shasta county through the night as
advertised by short term models. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies
and generally light winds. Current forecast handles this scenario
well and no evening update will be needed.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A thick layer of high clouds over the area has been keeping
temperatures cooler today. Valley highs should mostly end up being
between 95 and 100. Marine layer along the coast while still
shallow is showing signs of deepening. While this will not help us
today we should start to see some breeze through the delta tonight
that will help continue the cooling trend that is starting today.
GFS and NAM indicate showers and possible thunderstorms forming
this evening and continuing through the night and again on Sunday.
The HRRR indicates the activity will be delayed until late
evening. It starts the activity over Plumas County and spreads it
northward into Shasta County around midnight.
The center of the low moves over the interior by Sunday morning.
As the low continues to move closer to the coast this evening we
should see the high clouds move northward. Areas that clear over
the mountains will likely have the best chances this evening for
any activity to occur and mainly south of I-80. The low should
bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on
Sunday. The main focus continues to be over the mountains with the
GFS indicating some activity might make it into the far north end
of the valley late tonight and Sunday.
As the low moves into Nevada on Monday some residual moisture
that lingers over the mountains could cause some additional
thunderstorm activity but in general expect less storms than late
tonight and Sunday.
A better marine layer is expected along the coast with delta
breezes that will keep area temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
with only the well inland areas topping out at around 100 degrees
through Monday. Greater cooling is expected Tuesday as a deep
trough of low pressure develops off the coast and replaces the
high pressure ridge over the area with cyclonic flow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Forecast models appear to be in decent agreement to an upper level
low pressure system that will slide southward from the northern
Pacific Ocean Thursday through next weekend. There are slightly
different timings among the forecast models, however the forecast
trend is towards cooler high temperatures for the valley in the
mid to upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of next week. There are
also chances for thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the
northern mountains.
The main lift with the upper level system will occur in the
Pacific northwest towards the end of next week, so most of the
storm activity will remain north of the forecast area.
Surprisingly however, forecast models are not hinting at more
chances for precipitation for northern portions of the valley even
with a passage of the trough. The GFS forecast is the most
aggressive at this time with surface precipitation, but other
forecasts keep the northern valley dry. For now, the forecast
will continue with the trend towards a dry forecast. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms may increase for the northern mountains
and northern valley with future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours. An upper
level disturbance will bring increased high level cloud cover for
the valley through tonight. Clearing should begin towards late
Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon. Light wind shifts are expected
for the terminals through the forecast period.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
734 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to push through our region late today.
A second cold front will slide through late Tuesday. High pressure
will then build southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic region through
the remainder of the work week before a warm front approaches our
region for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
quick update to the weather grids this morning to increase pops
through 9 AM to account for mainly light showers now moving north
through new jersey. these showers are associated with the warm
front moving north, with dewpoints into the low 70s to the south
and in the 60s to the north.
...prev discussion below...
A warm front was moving nwd acrs the region this mrng and some
rain accompanied the front. Mdl guid has been reasonably
consistent that the sern portions of the area would be genly dry
thru the mrng hours, and psbly later. Latest radar showed a decent
swath of precip acrs MD and VA movg ewd and weakening. The HRRR
does want to bring some of this into the Delmarva and ern PA/srn
NJ in the next few hours but that would be it for the mrng precip
in these areas.
THen all eyes turn to the approach of a cdfnt later this aftn into
this eve. As has been the case for the last few days, there still
exists the potential for severe wx. CAPE is moderate, but there is
good unidirectional shear, but lapse rates are weak. Gusty wind and
heavy rain appear to be the main threats, but the front should be
progressive enough to preclude any widespread flooding issues.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The front will move off the coast by midnight or shortly
thereafter and rain will end from w to e durg the eve and erly
overnight pd. Behind the fropa, conds will improve and dry out for
the remainder of the overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday...looks to be a relative lull in the unsettled pattern.
Continued to undercut temps as the MOS guidance shows temps well
above deterministic models and even max temps a few degrees above
what was observed yesterday. Even though today`s front isn`t a
very strong front, there should still be enough cold air advection
behind the front to result in temps a few degrees lower than what
we`ve been seeing. Plus, if we do have widespread rain today, wet
ground could further temper any warming on Monday.
Tuesday...the second, and possibly stronger, cold front is still
due to arrive during the later half of the day. Interestingly
though, in stark contrast to the front today, the upper level
short wave trough accompanying this front may be rather weak.
Thus there will be limited upper level support for widespread
convection. For now, kept PoPs in the 20 to 30 percent range (with
the higher PoPs across the NW where orographic lift could enhance
convection).
Wednesday...A deeper and more intense upper level shore wave
trough will dig SE over the region on Wednesday. Though there
isn`t a very well defined surface boundary, would not be surprise
if convection is more widespread on Wednesday than on Tuesday.
Thursday through Sunday...Through much of this period our region
will be on the outer periphery of a long wave ridge over the
central U.S.. Could see chances of rain as short wave troughs
embedded in the upper level northwesterly flow dig SE over the
region, but with this pattern it is notoriously difficult to time
out these features this far in advance. Another feature of note is
a surface warm front that could lift through the region Friday or
Saturday bringing another chance for precip and an end to the
highs only in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Conds were genly VFR acrs the region with some lcl MVFR mixed in.
Cigs are expected to decrease thru the mrng as a wmfnt approaches
from the s. Widespread MVFR will eventually prevail, with some IFR
also psbl. Rain chcs are highest this AM n and w, with little s and
e.
Precip chcs shud increase after day break but guid differs as to
what extent. The best rain chcs will occur later this aftn with the
approach of a cdfnt from the w.
Shra and tsra are expected. Strong gusty winds are psbl.
Behind the fropa, conds will improve, with a return to VFR later in
the eve and overnight.
Outside of any tsra, wind will genly shift from se to sw and durg
the aftn, but speeds will be less than 10 kts.
Outlook...
Monday...VFR conditions expected.
Tuesday through Wednesday...mostly VFR though there is a small
chance of MVFR conditions with showers and Thunderstorms on Tuesday
and Wednesday primarily during the day time hours.
Thursday...VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from this afternoon
until early Monday. S to sw wind will increase ahead of a cfp and
seas will rise to the 3 to 5 ft range late tonight before decreasing
a bit by Mon mrng.
Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.
Tuesday night through Thursday...northwesterly winds will increase
behind a cold front Tuesday night, and gusts above 25 kt could
develop early Wednesday morning. Seas will subsequently increase on
the coastal waters to near 5 ft. Elevated winds and seas could
continue through the day Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We expect one more round of high tides near, but falling short, of
minor flooding thresholds with the high tide cycle Sunday evening.
By late tonight, flow should begin to shift more offshore...reducing
the risk of coastal flooding for the remaining high tide cycles.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The DOX 88D will likely be out of service until at least Monday
June 6. Alternate nearby radars that cover portions of Delmarva
include DIX, LWX, AKQ as well as terminal doppler radars TBWI,
TADW, and TPHL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
Monday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Nierenberg/Miketta
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Nierenberg
Marine...Johnson/Nierenberg
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Equipment...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide offshore today. A warm front will then
lift north through our region early tomorrow before a strong cold
front pushes through the region tomorrow evening. Another cold
front is expected to move through late Tuesday. High pressure will
then build southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic region through
the remainder of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
dry weather so far today will mostly likely be interrupted with
some shower and thunderstorm activity mainly north of the i-95
corridor. the latest HRRR indicates some pop-up showers possible in
the lehigh valley...southern poconos and northwest nj this
afternoon...then additional shower activity from central pa a
little later. many areas may not see rain this afternoon...but
those areas that do could get a good soaking. high temperatures
generally in the low to mid 80s with a cloud deck over most of the
area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The guid is suggesting a brief lull in the precip durg the eve,
especially for srn and ern areas tonight before it picks up twd
daybreak. However, where any precip maxes will be is once again
different in the mdls. The NAM/WRF keeps the bulk of the precip to
the w. While the ECMWF ants to do the same, it does bring some
decent precip over our wrn and srn sections, while the GFS is
drier. Any precip cud be hvy at times and localized but it is
difficult to pinpoint what areas have the best chcs to receive the
most.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main focus through the long term is on the Sunday and Sunday night
period.
Sunday and Sunday night...Cold front still on track to push
through the region during the later half of the day (the models
trended slightly faster, with the front now likely off shore by
06Z Sunday night). Just ahead of that cold front there should be
sufficient instability and shear to support organized convective
activity if we get breaks in the low clouds to help with warming
in the boundary layer. Instability could be limited if the low
clouds linger for much of the day, but even then, CAPE values
could still be 500 to 1000 J/kg, more than enough for organized
convection given bulk shear values of 40 to 50 kt. If there are
breaks in the clouds, than CAPE values above 1000 J/kg are
possible. As for the hazards...
Damaging winds...This continues to be the primary threat. Given a
strong mid and upper level jet over the region just ahead of the
front, the winds could mix down to the surface with any
thunderstorms that develop, especially if QLCS structure develops.
Heavy Rain...This appears to be the 2nd biggest threat. Precipitable
water values should be near or above the 90th percentile (some
models are even depicting values that would exceed the max
observed from any of the nearby RAOB soundings for early June).
In addition, a southerly low level jet through the first half of
the day will help with moisture transport (although this may be
limited during the prime period of convection Sunday afternoon as
the jet shifts more southwesterly). The mean RH through the low
and mid levels will be quite high and the warm cloud layer will be
quite deep (melting layer at 13 or 14 k ft). All of these factors
mean that any storms that develop will be efficient rain
producers. However, storm motions will be relatively fast - 25 to
30 kt. So expect this to be more of a threat if storms develop
over our more urbanized locations (the I95 corridor).
Hail...The relatively high melting layer and limited directional
shear will limit this threat. However, there does appear to be
considerable cape in the hail growth region, so hail is possible,
but not as much of a severe threat as winds.
Tornadoes...This appears to be the lowest of the severe threats at
this time. As mentioned previously, directional shear is quite
limited (though bulk shear values are quite large, it is mostly
speed shear), which limits the threat for tornadoes. However,
there could be some enhanced directional shear in the vicinity of
the warm front if it is still over the region by Sunday afternoon.
Showers and storms should clear out quickly behind the cold front
once it sweeps through Sunday evening.
Monday...MOS guidance is quite a bit higher with temps than any of
the deterministic models. Although the cold air advection behind
the front isn`t very strong, it should be enough to keep
temperatures a few degrees lower than on Sunday. Thus, stayed
closer to the deterministic models for high temps on Monday.
Tuesday...An upper level short wave trough and secondary cold
front should slide over the region through this period, but unlike
on Sunday, deeper moisture should stay to our east, so expect
little more than showers, primarily for our northwestern
locations.
Wednesday through Saturday...stayed close to the blend of guidance
through this period (in order to focus more on the Sunday period).
A high slides east toward our region and eventually offshore,
keeping our region mostly dry through the remainder of the week
with the exception of Friday and Friday night as a short wave
trough digs southeast over our region, bringing a slight chance
for showers to our region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
cigs and vsbys are gradually improving at all taf sites this
morning. expect additional improvement to vfr as the morning
wears on...then perhaps remain at vfr until early evening when
conditions could drop to mvfr again.
Rain is psbl durg the overnight hours, with best chcs w erly and
movg ewd by daybreak.
Wind shud genly be light, 5 kts or less out of the s.
Outlook...
Sunday...IFR conditions with low clouds could begin the day. Later
in the day MVFR and IFR conditions are possible with any showers
and thunderstorms that develop. Strong winds possible with any
storms Sunday afternoon and evening.
Sunday night...conditions improving to VFR behind a cold front.
Monday through Wednesday...mostly VFR conditions expected. A small
chance of MVFR conditions with showers on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated durg the nr or short term pds.
Seas shud be around 3 ft with wind no more than 10 to 15 kts. There
cud be some marine fog that reduces vsbys to 1 nm or less at
times.
Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night...southerly winds should be gusting near
25 KT through the afternoon and evening hours. Seas should
subsequently increase to near 5 feet. A cold front Sunday night
should bring a shift to westerly winds, but also lower wind speeds
and wave heights. Stronger wind gusts will be possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop.
Monday through Wednesday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The new moon occurs today. Thus, astronomical tides will be
higher than normal through early next week. Southerly and
southeasterly winds are expected through Sunday. However, winds
today will be relatively light meaning a minimal contribution to
the tides.
The evening/overnight tides are the higher of the two. A few
locations along the coast with the high tide on Friday evening
approached the level for advisory issuance. An advisory may be
needed Saturday night and most likely Sunday night when the
astronomical tides are highest, in some cases, within 3/10ths of a
foot of flood stage. The developing southerly flow on Sunday
appears to make the Sunday evening/night high tide cycle the most
vulnerable.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Miketta
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Nierenberg/Miketta
Marine...Johnson/Nierenberg
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
951 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Mid-morning satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough/mid-
level vorticity maxima dropping through southeast Saskatchewan in
northwest flow aloft. We increased cloud cover a bit over western
ND today based on trends in visible satellite imagery and out of
respect to the weak wave. Radar imagery does show some weak echoes
upstream, but any moisture appears high-based and recent rapid-
refresh guidance isn`t very convincing of the need for low PoPs in
western ND this afternoon, so we held off adding any for now. The
rest of the forecast is on track showing a warm and breezy day.
UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Added a few more clouds associated with the front currently moving
through the south central portion of the state. Otherwise no
significant updates to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Overall, rather quiet through the short term period.
Currently, a weak cold front is pushing through northern into
central ND producing only a few mid level clouds. This is
associated with an impulse helping to dig an upper low over the
northern Great lakes and southeast Canada. The front will push
south through the forecast area today with perhaps a slight
cooldown north and east, but overall, very similar to Saturday. It
will be breezy again today with northwest winds generally 15 to 30
mph.
Another impulse tonight will push a backdoor cold front through
the forecast area tonight. This will bring significantly cooler
temperatures and moisture aloft. Monday will be noticeably cooler
with temperatures generally around 10 degrees cooler than today,
with increased cloud cover, especially across central ND. There is
some very weak instability aloft and a few sprinkles or showers
can not be ruled out along or east of the Highway 83 corridor.
High pressure builds over the area Monday behind the frontal
passage so it will be a little breezy early on but winds will
begin to diminish in the afternoon.
Surface flow turns southerly Monday night and remains southerly
through Tuesday night as upper level ridging and lee side
troughing develops over the northern Rockies. Temperatures rebound
on Tuesday marking the beginning of a significant warm-up as we
head into the latter half of the work week.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Strong ridging next week highlights the long term...potentially
bringing in the warmest temperatures so far this year.
By Wednesday the building ridge over western North America expands
across the Rockies and into the western plains. This ridge will
allow very warm air to build all across the Rockies and into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. High temperatures should be mainly in
the 80s.
Thursday the thermal ridge should be well established over the
Northern Plains...and the ensemble guidance indicates h850
temperatures in the 99.5 percentile for most of this time period.
Guidance forecast highs are in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most
areas Thursday.
On Friday the ridge begins to break down and move eastward as a low
pressure system that develops/moves into the Pacific Northwest
begins moving into the Rockies...shifting our upper level flow to
southwesterly by Friday afternoon/evening. Some shortwave energy
impulses emanating from the base of the advancing trough will be
associated with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the west and
north central part of North Dakota during the day...and a better
chance Friday night. High temperatures should still be in the 80s
north to lower 90s south.
The low pressure trough advances eastward across the Dakotas during
next weekend...keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms over our
area as well as bringing temperatures more seasonable with highs in
the 70s by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will become
northwesterly...and increase to around 15-20 knots from 15z-18z.
Some gusts to around 24-28 knots. Winds to decrease aft 00z.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Added a few more clouds associated with the front currently moving
through the south central portion of the state. Otherwise no
significant updates to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Overall, rather quiet through the short term period.
Currently, a weak cold front is pushing through northern into
central ND producing only a few mid level clouds. This is
associated with an impulse helping to dig an upper low over the
northern Great lakes and southeast Canada. The front will push
south through the forecast area today with perhaps a slight
cooldown north and east, but overall, very similar to Saturday. It
will be breezy again today with northwest winds generally 15 to 30
mph.
Another impulse tonight will push a backdoor cold front through
the forecast area tonight. This will bring significantly cooler
temperatures and moisture aloft. Monday will be noticeably cooler
with temperatures generally around 10 degrees cooler than today,
with increased cloud cover, especially across central ND. there is
some very weak instability aloft and a few sprinkles or showers
can not be ruled out along or east of the Highway 83 corridor.
High pressure builds over the area Monday behind the frontal
passage so it will be a little breezy early on but winds will
begin to diminish in the afternoon.
Surface flow turns southerly Monday night and remains southerly
through Tuesday night as upper level ridging and lee side
troughing develops over the northern Rockies. Temperatures rebound
on Tuesday marking the beginning of a significant warm-up as we
head into the latter half of the work week.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Strong ridging next week highlights the long term...potentially
bringing in the warmest temperatures so far this year.
By Wednesday the building ridge over western North America expands
across the Rockies and into the western plains. This ridge will
allow very warm air to build all across the Rockies and into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. High temperatures should be mainly in
the 80s.
Thursday the thermal ridge should be well established over the
Northern Plains...and the ensemble guidance indicates h850
temperatures in the 99.5 percentile for most of this time period.
Guidance forecast highs are in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most
areas Thursday.
On Friday the ridge begins to break down and move eastward as a low
pressure system that develops/moves into the Pacific Northwest
begins moving into the Rockies...shifting our upper level flow to
southwesterly by Friday afternoon/evening. Some shortwave energy
impulses emanating from the base of the advancing trough will be
associated with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the west and
north central part of North Dakota during the day...and a better
chance Friday night. High temperatures should still be in the 80s
north to lower 90s south.
The low pressure trough advances eastward across the Dakotas during
next weekend...keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms over our
area as well as bringing temperatures more seasonable with highs in
the 70s by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will become
northwesterly...and increase to around 15-20 knots from 15z-18z.
Some gusts to around 24-28 knots. Winds to decrease aft 00z.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
622 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Water vapor imagery indicates a stronger upper wave approaching
the Lake of the Woods area early this morning...with associated
thunderstorms. Updated PoPs and included thunder for this area
through 12z. Much of the morning hours will be dry...with
scattered showers/isold thunder during the afternoon hours. The
latest CAM guidance indicating another weak upper wave within
northwest flow aloft to interact with peak heating/cool temps
aloft for shower/thunder development. Minor change to ongoing
forecast was to expand isold PoPs into the valley.
Another wave will bring clouds...cooler temps...and scattered
showers to the region on Monday.
Overall impacts will be very minor...with any widely scattered
lightning today the main hazard.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Monday night-Tuesday night...Ridging builds into the region
bringing dry weather and slightly warmer temps (compared with
Monday).
Wednesday-Saturday...An upper level ridge will shift eastward
into the plains mid to late week as a closed low makes progress
towards the Pacific Northwest. These events will be accompanied by
a climb of 850 mb temps above 20C by late week. Surface temps
likely will surpass 90 over southeast North Dakota by Friday,
while persistent low-level southerly winds will help advect a more
humid air mass (dewpoints rising above 60F) into the region as
well. With the upper ridging in place, chances for convection will
be on the low side until perhaps Saturday with the approach of an
upper trough from the west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Mostly clear sky during the morning hours will become scattered to
broken with CU (6KFT to 10KFT) development by afternoon. Breezy
northwest winds. Showers/Thunder possible but coverage limited.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Overall, rather quiet through the short term period.
Currently, a weak cold front is pushing through northern into
central ND producing only a few mid level clouds. This is
associated with an impulse helping to dig an upper low over the
northern Great lakes and southeast Canada. The front will push
south through the forecast area today with perhaps a slight
cooldown north and east, but overall, very similar to Saturday. It
will be breezy again today with northwest winds generally 15 to 30
mph.
Another impulse tonight will push a backdoor cold front through
the forecast area tonight. This will bring significantly cooler
temperatures and moisture aloft. Monday will be noticeably cooler
with temperatures generally around 10 degrees cooler than today,
with increased cloud cover, especially across central ND. there is
some very weak instability aloft and a few sprinkles or showers
can not be ruled out along or east of the Highway 83 corridor.
High pressure builds over the area Monday behind the frontal
passage so it will be a little breezy early on but winds will
begin to diminish in the afternoon.
Surface flow turns southerly Monday night and remains southerly
through Tuesday night as upper level ridging and lee side
troughing develops over the northern Rockies. Temperatures rebound
on Tuesday marking the beginning of a significant warm-up as we
head into the latter half of the work week.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
Strong ridging next week highlights the long term...potentially
bringing in the warmest temperatures so far this year.
By Wednesday the building ridge over western North America expands
across the Rockies and into the western plains. This ridge will
allow very warm air to build all across the Rockies and into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. High temperatures should be mainly in
the 80s.
Thursday the thermal ridge should be well established over the
Northern Plains...and the ensemble guidance indicates h850
temperatures in the 99.5 percentile for most of this time period.
Guidance forecast highs are in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most
areas Thursday.
On Friday the ridge begins to break down and move eastward as a low
pressure system that develops/moves into the Pacific Northwest
begins moving into the Rockies...shifting our upper level flow to
southwesterly by Friday afternoon/evening. Some shortwave energy
impulses emanating from the base of the advancing trough will be
associated with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the west and
north central part of North Dakota during the day...and a better
chance Friday night. High temperatures should still be in the 80s
north to lower 90s south.
The low pressure trough advances eastward across the Dakotas during
next weekend...keeping chances of showers and thunderstorms over our
area as well as bringing temperatures more seasonable with highs in
the 70s by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Cold front in
southern Canada will move south through North Dakota before
daybreak. Southwest winds ahead of the cold front will become
northwesterly...and increase from 15z-18z to around 15-20 knots with
some gusts around 24-28 knots. Winds to decrease aft 00z.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Most of the clouds across the area have diminished so have cleared
out most cover. Otherwise, remainder of forecast is in good
shape.
UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Quiet weather continues this evening. Mid-level clouds over
northwest and central North Dakota should dissipate through the
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Quiet weather in the short term with a dry and moderate airmass
in place. Focus will be on the chances for showers showing up in
the last few runs of the HRRR over northern North Dakota. Based on
the lack of showers so far today and the dry air in place,
dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s across much of north central
and northwest North Dakota, do not expect much if any rain to make
its way to the ground. Thus after 20 UTC today all mentions of
rain have been taken out of the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Focus in the long term is on strong ridging late next week
potentially brining in the warmest temperatures so far this year.
For the early portion of the extended dry conditions along with
seasonable temperatures are forecast. By Wednesday the strong
ridge over the western CONUS will build into the Northern Plains
ushering in widespread highs in the 80s. By Thursday ensemble
guidance is showing 850 mb temperatures in the 99.5th percentile
versus climatology which continues into Friday. As of now highs
are forecast to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, but if the
trend holds look for temperatures to be even warmer late next
week.
As for chances for storms late in the week, the strong ridging
over the central U.S. will limit our precipitation chances.
Although with the building heat a stray storm can not be ruled
out. Also there are some indications of a shortwave trying to
break down the upper ridging late Friday but this remains a long
way out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
615 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Pockets of heavy rain along with embedded thunderstorms this
evening will bring the potential for brief minor poor drainage
street flooding. Dry and warm weather returns for Monday, but a cold
front may bring the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Another disturbance may
result in a few more showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, the main story will be unseasonably cool
temperatures Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The first batch of rain showers moved through late this morning
with generally light rainfall /less than 0.1 inches for the most
part/. Another area of showers pushed across western and central
areas this afternoon, and across E Mass and RI at 20Z. No
lightning has been detected with either one of these areas by late
this afternoon. A few showers with embedded thunderstorms have
developed S of the coastal waters, and will pass well S of the
region. KBOX 88D Dual Pol radar estimated up to 0.3 to 0.5 inches
of rain in an hour across portions of Rhode Island into SE Mass at
21Z as this rain moves across eastern areas. So, will see some
brief heavy downpours before moving offshore.
Will see another brief break in the rainfall by 22Z-23Z, but will be
followed rather quickly with strong line of convection. Noting quite
a bit of in cloud lightning as well as C/G lightning as it moves out
of E Pennsylvania into W NJ and N DE. This convection is moving E-
NE, so will approach the CT valley by around 630 to 7 PM ahead of
the approaching lee trough, then cross the region tonight into
early Monday morning.
Rather potent H5 short wave rotates around the base of cutoff mid
level low pressure across southern Ontario tonight. This will bring
the line of showers/thunderstorms across. PWATs up to 2 inches with
tropical moisture plume that has pushed into the region will allow
for more heavy downpours that may cause minor urban and poor
drainage flooding. However, will watch in case some of these cells
train over some of our vulnerable flood areas overnight. WPC has
kept the region in a slight chance for flash flooding, but looks
like the line of rain will continue to steadily move across. With
efficient warm rain processes, could still see a few pockets of
minor urban/poor drainage flooding.
Strong low and mid level jets at both H925 and H85 will cross the
region and help enhance thunderstorm activity along with elevated
instability. Also noting K indices rise to the mid and upper 30s
and TQ values close to 20.
With the strong low and mid level jet crossing the region, will
swing the cold front across overnight. This will push the precip
quickly E, just ahead of the passing cold front. Noting another
area of showers across W PA, but that looks to push NE wrapping
around the Ontario cutoff H5 vortex. Precip should end by around
06Z across western areas, pushing E not long after that. May see
lingering patchy fog but, as airmass dries out, this will
dissipate.
Expect overnight lows mainly from 60 to 65, but in the upper 50s
on the outer Cape and Nantucket.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Monday...Cold front should push off the Cape and Nantucket by mid
morning. Not much cold air behind this system however. If
anything, looks like it will be a rather warm day with W-SW winds
in place. H85 temps are not all that cold either around the base
of strong low pres close to Hudson Bay associated with cutoff H5
low.
Generally dry air is expected with mostly sunny skies. May see
some gusts up to 25 mph along the S coast as well. Expect temps to
rise to the lower-mid 80s, except remaining cooler along the S
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Warm Tuesday with a few PM strong-severe thunderstorms poss
* Cooler Wed with afternoon/eve scattered showers/t-storms poss
* Mainly dry but unseasonably cool and breezy on Thursday
* Below normal temps continue Fri/Sat/Sun and it may turn unsettled
next weekend but that remains very uncertain
Details...
Monday night...
The majority of Monday night will be dry with low temps dropping
into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A few hours of patchy
ground fog may develop in the typically prone locations. Also,
would not be surprised to see a few showers and perhaps an isolated
t-storm or two develop toward daybreak. Southwest low level jet
increases to between 20 and 30 knots ahead of a cold front along
with some marginal instability. Any activity that develops will
probably be widely scattered and of short duration.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
A fairly strong cold front will approach the region Tue afternoon
and evening. 850t still quite mild generally between +12c and +14c
will combined with southwest flow ahead of the cold front. This
should yield afternoon high temps between 80 and 85 across most of
the region, except a few degrees cooler across the high terrain as
well as the Cape and Islands.
While the vast majority of the day will be dry in a given location,
a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm will be possible
through mid morning on the nose of the low level jet. The main
concern though is the potential of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the pre-frontal
trough/cold front.
There are certain ingredients in place that have us concerned along
with some limitations as well. Cold pool aloft with 500 mb temps
dropping to between -14c and -16c will result in decent mid level
lapse rates, probably on the order of 6.5c/km. In addition, 0 to 6
km shear will likely exceed 50 knots which is certainly more than
enough for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. On the flip side of
the coin, dry mid level air will be advecting in from the southwest
which can often cutoff updrafts if we end up with too much of it.
Also, drier air will limit instability and it may be a struggle to
muster 1000 j/kg of MLCape.
So in a nutshell, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening but that is far from a certainty.
Isolated reports of both large hail/damaging wind gusts would be a
possibility if a few severe storms are able to develop.
Wednesday...
Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front and high temps may only
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s despite partial sunshine. A fairly
potent shortwave will move east into southern New England during the
day Wednesday, with 500 mb temps dropping below -20c. That is quite
impressive for this time of year so expect scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon/early evening.
Areal coverage of activity remains uncertain and will be determined
by the exact track of the potent shortwave. Certainly the potential
for small hail given the highly anomalous cold temps aloft. Gusty
winds will also be possible as temp/dewpoint spreads increase.
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Any left over scattered showers and a few t-storms should diminish
Wed evening with mainly dry weather into Thursday. The main story
will be the unseasonably cool air that works into the region over
this time. 850t drop to around +2c and GEFS shows that to be 2
standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Low temps
by daybreak Thu will mainly be in the 40s to around 50. Highs on
Thu should generally remain in the 60s, along with a gusty northwest
wind.
Friday through Sunday...
Upper trough with below normal heights will persist across the
northeast. While temperatures will probably not be as cool as they
will be on Thu, expect below normal temps to continue through the
weekend. Highs will mainly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s over
this time. There is the potential for a bout or two of unsettled
weather next weekend, but confidence on that is low. A couple of
MCS`s should develop across the Great Lakes and Northern Plains area
on the edge of the heat dome/westerlies aloft. This activity will
slide southeast and possibly affect southern New England once or
twice next weekend in the form of rain showers. A washout is not
expected though and timing is very uncertain. Bulk of the
instability will be to our southwest, so sometimes these complexes
gravitate towards the greater instability, which perhaps could spare
our region the bulk of the activity. Regardless, fairly confident
that the severe weather threat will remain southwest of our region
given the upper level pattern next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Likely +RA across all terminals,
with TSRA focused mainly SE, through 03Z-04Z. Expect mainly MVFR-
IFR conditions, but local LIFR CIGS likely along the S coast,
which could move into central and eastern areas before the front
passes. SE winds throughout gusting up to 25-30 kt this evening,
especially with any TSRA. Winds gradually veer to S-SW overnight
with gusts up to 20 kts as rain ends. Conditions begin to improve
to VFR across portions of the CT valley toward daybreak.
Monday...Moderate to high confidence. Leftover IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS will quickly improve to VFR by mid-late morning. W-SW
winds gusting to around 20 kt along S coastal areas.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. +RA/VCTS threats toward
this evening.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Will see the bulk of the
RA/+RA threats. VCTS possible this evening.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...
Monday night...High confidence. Mainly VFR other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible late in the typically prone locations.
A few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm is possible toward
daybreak.
Tuesday and Wednesday...High confidence. Mainly VFR other than brief
localized lower cigs/vsbys in any afternoon/evening scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A few hours of patchy ground fog are also
possible a few hours before daybreak in the typically prone
locations.
Thursday and Friday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR
conditions expected. NW wind gusts of 25-30 knots expected during
the day Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Monday/...
Tonight and Monday...High confidence.
Tonight...Have issued small craft for Buzzards/Narragansett Bays
and Vineyard Sound for gusts up to 25 kt ahead of approaching
front. Gusts up to 30 kt on the outer waters. Expect rain to fall
heavily at times to move across. Vsby restrictions likely with the
heavy rain, along with low clouds and areas of fog. Thunderstorms
also likely, especially on the southern outer waters. Low risk for
S-SW gale force winds. Seas up to 6-8 ft on the eastern outer
waters.
Monday...W-SW winds will diminish after the front moves offshore
during the morning, but seas will remain AOA 5 ft across the open
waters through the day. Vsby restrictions will quickly improve by
mid to late morning.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...
Monday night...High confidence. Lingering 5 foot southeast swell
across our southern waters will require the need for small craft
headlines to continue in this region. Otherwise, weak pressure
gradient should keep winds/seas below thresholds across the rest of
our waters.
Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence. Some near shore southwest
wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots will probably develop near the south
coast Tuesday afternoon. Also, there is a low risk for a few strong
thunderstorms Tue afternoon/early evening across our waters north of
Plymouth.
Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate to high confidence. Anomalous
cool advection with 850t down to +2c will generate decent mixing
over the waters for this time of year. The result will be northwest
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots developing late Wed and continuing into
Thu. Three to 6 foot seas should also develop across our outer waters.
Friday...Moderate confidence. Northwest winds and seas will
probably have dropped below small craft thresholds by mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise, probably no headlines needed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Taking a look at this afternoon`s low tides, we noted that the
surge was 0.65 feet at Boston and between 0.6 and 0.7 feet at both
Fox Point in Providence and Fall River. Considering this, and with
S- SE winds shifting to SW tonight, we have issued a Coastal Flood
Statement. The high tide occurs along the S coast at around 9-930
PM, while the E coast high tide occurs around midnight.
Tonight is a high astronomical tide for the month /12.2 feet at
Boston, 6.1 feet at Fall River and 6.3 feet at Fox Point in
Providence/. With up to a 0.8 foot storm surge, this will be close
to causing minor splashover along the most vulnerable coastal
roads, including Morrissey Boulevard in Boston.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231>234-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EVT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
448 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its
associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding
of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the
heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably
warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The approaching low pressure is expected to occlude as it moves
across the region this evening as the negatively tilted upper
trough swings through. Moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring
with flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
possible in some areas with the heavy rainfall. Precipitable
water values are 2 inches across the area. The precipitable water
value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was 1.73 inches which is 170
percent of normal. The HRRR has been consistent bringing the
heavy rainfall across the forecast area between 19Z/Sun through
00Z/Mon.
The Storm Prediction has pulled back its Slight Risk that was
just to our west and has kept the area excluding southern VT in Our
area is blanketed in cloud cover which is preventing the airmass
from destabilize. Gusty winds are occurring with the kine for
showers moving across the area.
The occluded boundary is expected to cross the region late this
evening into the early morning hours with chances for convection
continuing until its passage.
Lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s with dew
points lowering especially across the northwest portion of the
forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The stacked low will be to our north across eastern Canada through
Tuesday night with short waves rotating about. Our region with be
between short waves on Monday so expecting fair weather with breezy
conditions developing. Highs will be seasonably warm with lower
dew points mainly in the 50s.
A short wave dives out of central Canada into the longwave trough and
strengthens the upper low with a short wave trough digging over the
Great Lakes region Monday afternoon into night. The short wave is
expected to rotate about the base of the upper low over the region
Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. Storms will precede/accompany
its passage with a cool airmass being ushered in. 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to fall into the negatives teens during
the afternoon. Lows Monday night are forecast to fall into the mid
40s to mid 50s with dew points down into the 40s. Another short
wave, a vigorous one, will be on the approach moving across the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night which will prevent skies from
clearing out.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period of slightly unsettled conditions but not much
instability. A departing low at the start of the period will bring
perhaps the greatest PoPs to our area. This will be immediately
followed by the best days from Thursday through Friday with high
pressure barely ridging in across the southern zones. Thus...the
greater amounts of sunshine will be across the southern zones for
the latter part of the work week...but it should be largely free of
precip.
Partial sunshine may help pop some cumulus on Saturday that could
produce brief light afternoon rain showers...but cooler than normal
temperatures on the north side of a cold front should help limit
instability and prevent thunderstorms from developing. That/s the
only other decent chance for precipitation during the period. On
Sunday...the frontal boundary will have progressed even further
south...stretching from northern Minnesota southeast to the Delmarva
Peninsula...and keeping us below normal for temperatures.
For Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures will be mostly from
the lower 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the lower Mid-
Hudson Valley...about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For the
remainder of the period...temperatures will modify somewhat...with
highs by Sunday from the mid 60s to mid 70s...still slightly below
normal.
The nighttime periods will also be unusually cool...though not as
much below normal as the highs...with lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights ranging from only around 40 degrees in the northern
Adirondacks...to the lower 50s down the Hudson Valley. Not as much
temperature moderation is expected into the weekend for the
nighttime periods...and lows Saturday night will range from the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions should bounce between VFR to MVFR through 20 or
21Z until another round of steadier and heavier rain showers
associated with the cold front comes through the TAF sites. There
could even be some thunder, but not enough confident in its timing
or extent to include just now. However, another round of IFR
conditions look to occur for all sites for Sunday evening,
generally in the 21Z/Sunday - 03Z/Monday time frame.
After roughly 03Z/Monday when the front and heavier showers end,
there could be a brief window where conditions improve to
VFR/MVFR. However, with abundant low level moisture remaining in
place, the potential for low CIGS and/or fog will develop after
04Z/Monday, with IFR/LIFR possible. Conditions improve again to
VFR by mid to late morning Monday with some sct-bkn clouds around
050 ft msl.
S to SE winds will continue to 8-15 KT with some gusts of 25 KT
or higher possible, especially at KALB. Winds should then shift
into the southwest to west as the front moves across this evening
with speeds of 5-10 KT. Southwest to west winds will then continue
overnight at generally less than 8 KT. On Monday, a west wind
increases to 10 to 20 kts.
Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any
thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to heavy into this evening as a low pressure system as its
associated fronts approach and move across the region. Some flooding
of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas is possible with the
heavy rainfall. Monday will be fair and breezy with seasonably
warm temperatures. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
triggering some storms and ushering in a cool airmass into the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring with some flooding of
urban, low lying and poor drainage areas possible with the heavy
rainfall. Precipitable water values are 2 inches across the area.
The precipitable water value from the 12Z/ALY sounding was 1.73
inches which is 170 percent of normal. The HRRR has been consistent
bringing the heavy rainfall across the forecast area between
19Z/Sun through 00Z/Mon. Heaviest rainfall rates have been up to
around a half an inch an hour. There will be chances for convection
until the passage of the occluded boundary.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA