Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/04/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...
Skies are showing signs of clearing but two areas of stratus are
moving into the area, one from the SW, the other from offshore SE
of MA. These two will attempt to fill in again tonight but may not
be as successful as previous nights mainly due to less advective
wind (mainly light and variable tonight). Still some fog/low
clouds can be expected, maintaining another somewhat mild
overnight. Slight adjustments made as the forecast appears on
track at this time.
Previous discussion...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
Overview and model preferences...
Deepening and gradually occluding system S of James Bay will
define the weather for much of early next week. 03.12Z model
guidance is settling on a solution for this feature which is
lending to higher confidence in day-to-day sensible wx details.
The initial reaction will be an area of widespread and possibly
heavy rainfall Sun as the trof prepares to cutoff taking on a
negative tilt. The second will be the from the destabilized nature
of the cutoff itself as it slowly meanders into QC, with a series
of shortwaves rotating around it. A blend of deterministic
guidance can still be used for much of the week, but ensembles
better support the slow transition away from the cutoff late in
the week.
Details...
Sun and Sun night...
Rain, heavy at times is the short definition for this Sunday.
Overruning precip event in advance of occluding low pres. Strong
isentropic lift implied by low-mid lvl veering profiles. Moisture
not lacking, as PWATs approach 2 inches (or nearly 2 std
deviations above normal) and K-values exceed 30. This is in part
thanks to another tropical moisture plume from the slowly eastward
progressing Bonnie. Therefore, will likely see pockets of heavier
rainfall through the afternoon and evening when lift peaks.
Widespread QPF values around 1.00 inches with locally heavier
amounts can be expected. Flooding risk mainly relegated to the
urban/small stream environments as main-stem rivers and streams
continue to run low. Will need to monitor for typical urban
flooding issues. Convective risk will be mainly S, where higher
sfc based CAPE, and warm sector moves through, coincident with
latest SPC DAY 3 Enhanced Risk. Srn New England never quite gets
into the warm sector, so any thunder would be widely scattered and
based on upper lvl instability as TT values approach 50. Still
something to watch as this may enhance the localized urban flood
risk. Rain tapers overnight and early Mon morning as occlusion
shifts N of the region.
Mon and Mon night...
Dry slot associated with slowly meandering cutoff and occlusion,
combined with w-nw cold advection will likely keep Mon mainly dry
in spite of cloud cover. Only NW reaches have best chance for
precip driven by upslope enhancement. Otherwise, breezy, with
temps at H85 near +12C temps could make a run into the low 80s,
but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover ultimately
observed.
Tue and Tue night...
Secondary cold front sweeps across New England exposing the cold
pool aloft. Plenty of lift, modest moisture with PWATs about 1.50+
inches, so widespread showers look likely. The one issue to
monitor is the convective potential. Shear is present, nearly 40
Kt 0-6KM, however the mitigating factor is the relatively low
instability. Sfc based CAPE generally below 1000j/kg. Even though
this synoptic setup is a typical one for New England SVR, this low
CAPE high shear environment makes it difficult to formulate an
outcome this far out. For now, will mention the risk. Temps near
to slightly above seasonal normals as the core of coldest air
holds until later in the week.
Wed and Wed night...
Cold pool settles aloft and thanks to continued cyclonic flow,
diurnally driven shra are possible. H5 temps near -18 to -20C
could support some t-storm development and a risk for graupel or
small hail with any shra/storms. This cold pool also suggests
cooler highs, mainly in the low-mid 70s rather than 80s
experienced earlier in the week.
Thu and Fri...
Ridging finally looks to attempt a shift, moving the core of the
cutoff to the E and allowing for anticyclonic flow aloft and a
building sfc high pres. Temps still near normal to seasonally cool
with the influence of the cold pool just to the NE. Models
indicating potential remnant ridge-rolling MCS, but this could
also be a convective feedback issue this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
VFR to start most places but gradual reduction to MVFR/IFR after
03Z especially Cape/Islands and SE MA. Inland, some ground fog
possible especially if some clearing is observed during the early
morning hours. Winds become light and variable.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun and Sun night...Moderate confidence.
Mix of MVFR/IFR with rain/fog most of Sun and Sun night with low
pres moving west of the region.
Mon...Moderate confidence.
VFR after early rains end, some lower cigs possible, but risk for
rain diminishes, breezy W-NW winds.
Tue and Wed...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR although afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...Moderate Confidence.
Deepening low pres will stay well NW of the waters with a front
moving through Sun night. Winds from S-SW Sun to to the W on Mon.
Gusts around 25 kt are possible late Sun and again Mon afternoon.
Seas in the meantime build, peaking Mon morning 5-8 ft and
diminishing thereafter. A period of small craft advisories may be
needed. Rain/fog lead to vsby restrictions especially Sun and Sun
night.
Tue and Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather expected outside of a shower or
leftover T-storms.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E Coast tides build through the weekend, peaking with a 12.2 ft
tide at Boston around 1230 Monday morning. Easterly flow is
possible both Fri and late Sun night, which occlude lead to a
enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary enters the region tonight and washes out
over the area into Saturday while weak high pressure sets up just
offshore. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Sunday
moves into eastern Canada Monday, bring a warm front through
Sunday morning and a cold front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The low will remain to the north for the start of the new
week, and then high pressure will build east for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient CAPE and a weak shortwave moving in, there will be
the chance of showers/tstms NW of the city this evening. Then the
lift weakens while the atmosphere becomes more stable, so will go
with a dry forecast for the overnight hours. Onshore flow will help
keep it mostly cloudy through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a mostly cloudy start, turning partly sunny for Saturday
afternoon with weak high pressure over the area. A shortwave
pushes in from the west during the afternoon, and with building
CAPE, there is a chance of showers and tstms over roughly the
western half of the CWA. Will go with lower-end chc to slight chc
pops since it seems that moisture will be fairly shallow. Used
superblend for high temps.
A warm front associated with low pressure to the west then begins to
approach from the SW Saturday night. Isentropic lift increases
over our area ahead of the front. In addition...a shortwave is
progged to approach and enter the vicinity of the NW zones. Also,
a theta-e ridge builds in and PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.00
inches. This combination of lift and moisture will increase rain
chances through the night, with rain likely for at least roughly
the NW half of the cwa by the end of the night. There could be a
thunderstorm, but probably isolated in nature, and more likely to
occur over the western half of the cwa where lift and CAPE will be
greater. Some heavy downpours are possible during the overnight
hours, but with the flow aloft increasing, storms should at least
not be very slow-moving.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper shortwave is becoming negatively tilted Sunday morning
through the upper midwest and Ohio valley. The trough moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic states and closes off Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. At the surface a frontal system will be moving
through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Sunday morning a
warm front moves through the region and the area will be in the
warm sector through the day, and a weak thermal ridge develops.
Even with the possibility of on going showers Sunday, daytime
heating will be enough for destabilization to occur as low level
lapse rates increase, and low level moisture also increases. Most
unstable CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon. Strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and into the evening as the upper trough moves into the
region and wind shear and lift increase, with the strongest storms
in the Lower Hudson Valley into Northeastern New Jersey. The main
threat will be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail is also possible. With the loss of heating and the upper
trough closing off and flattening the treat of strong
thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening and overnight.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure will give way to a dissipating cold front
approaching from the west this afternoon.
Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to start, but with
abundant moisture all terminals should return to IFR tonight as the
flow weakens. In the meantime, there is still some time for
improvement to MVFR as the batch of showers over Long Island
continues to move off to the east. Farther west, showers developing
ahead of the approaching cold front may impact KSWF prior to
00Z.
S/SE flow under 10 kt will continue into the evening before
becoming light overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 15Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of
the city.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through Saturday night
outside of any possible thunderstorms.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southeast flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels. Small craft seas likely linger into
Tuesday as a strong northwest flow prevails behind the cold front.
Finally, occasional gusts, mainly on the ocean waters,may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall into this evening is probably under a tenth of
an inch. No widespread significant rainfall is expected on
Saturday.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to an
upcoming new moon Sunday evening. Tides are actually high enough
to put some areas along the Long Island south shore back bays into
minor flood starting with tonight`s high tide cycle. Only about
1/2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding across the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens where a statement has been
issued for this evening. Expecting localized minor flooding here.
Tides will continue to run high enough to put some areas along
the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with the
high tide cycles Saturday night and Sunday night. Tidal
departures of 1/4 to 1/2 foot would also put some areas along
western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into minor flood
during the higher of the two daily tides, mainly Sunday night.
Background anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain
so through the weekend, so additional statements, or advisories
may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
- Cooler, unsettled weather pattern possible for rest of early June
*/ DISCUSSION...
An unsettled, cooler weather pattern advertised over New England per
averaged 1 to 2 week forecasts for early June via Climate Prediction
Center. Interrogating the bigger picture, low pressure maintains
over the N Pacific E of which progressive flow allows Pacific-origin
energy to waffle the EPO/PNA pattern with either ridging or cyclo-
genesis over the W CONUS mainly across the N / Canadian Rockies.
With Icelandic / Greenland ridging parent with a N Atlantic cutoff
low likely contributing to a -NAO/-AO pattern, E progressing storms
are slowed across Eastern N America creating a favorable environment
for mature storms to undergo maturation into occlusion. An ensemble
forecast evaluation shows that within such an environment H5 heights
are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal while H85 temperatures
are considerably below average beginning Sunday into early next week
which are discussed in detail below.
So to begin, a soaker Sunday into Sunday night. Widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms given a number of
convective indices just around their respective thresholds. An over-
running setup of S/SW flow of Gulf moisture (precipitable waters +2
standard deviations and within the 99th percentile of climatology)
undergoing isentropic ascent NE parent with a lifting warm front and
mid level vortex energy. Focus on convergent H925-85 flow beneath
favorable diffluence aloft more so in areas of with any instability
likely elevated. A challenge to nail down exactly where but thinking
that perhaps the 03.0z NAM may have the right idea with a secondary
low along the coast given the anomalous setup. Aside, the take-away
is that there will be a good slug of rain with rainfall amounts
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, locally higher around 1.50 inches.
Strong signal of such outcomes per ensemble means and probabalistics
for +1 inch. Maybe some nuisance poor-drainage flooding but honestly
feel the region should handle it with rainfall occurring over a
longer period of time. Otherwise, cool E/SE onshore flow ahead of
the warm front with deeper moisture aloft, likely some low cloud and
mist / fog issues throughout the period. Another challenge is when
the warm front will lift N. Possibly late Sunday into Sunday night
making for a non-diurnal temperature trend into Monday as flow
reverts S.
For Monday through Wednesday, contending with the occluded, stacked
low N and W over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Monday looks to
remain dry beneath the dry slot entraining into the system. But over
time the cold pool and cyclonic flow wobble S/E. With any mid-level
vortex energy rotating through the S periphery of the low combined
with diurnal heating, there is the chance for shower / thunderstorm
activity. Limited instability within a highly sheared environment
given poor environmental lapse rates, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a convective threat as originally thought, but will still
keep it in mind. Chance PoPs with higher confidence N/W closer to
the low. Temperatures closer to average.
End of the week, will keep Thursday dry. Thereafter a fair amount of
model forecast variability lending to low confidence. An ensemble
forecast approach has pacific-origin energy from the W potentially
interacting / phasing with energy drawn S out of the Arctic. It is
perhaps that the overall trend is for continued troughing across the
NE CONUS lending to a cooler, unsettled weather pattern as the
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
Though 00z this evening...Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR CIGS
should gradually improve to mainly VFR, except for portions of the
immediate south coast, Cape and Islands where lower CIGS may
persist. A few showers with the low risk of an isolated t-storm
across western MA through early this evening.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR away from the south coast
this evening, but low end MVFR-IFR with even some LIFR conditions
should develop in low clouds and areas of fog. Exact timing
uncertain.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, possible +RA with a lesser risk of
TSRA. Winds turning S and increasing with the potential for gusts
around 25 kts late Sunday evening, gradually backing S/SW overnight.
Potentially improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, dissipating into evening and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...
Increasing E/SE flow overnight with higher confidence of marine
stratus along with mist / drizzle / fog conditions developing.
Threat of visibility impacts down a mile or two. Waves below 5 feet.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, potentially heavy at times and possibly with some
embedded thunder. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind
which winds back out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 25 kts
throughout the period. Small craft advisories under consideration
along with waves on the outer waters building 5 to 6 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Feel conditions will be mainly dry with the primary threat being SW
winds gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters.
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
of 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary weakens today as high pressure remains
just offshore. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes tonight
and Sunday, then into eastern Canada Monday. A warm front moves
through Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The
low will remain to the north for the start of the new week, and
then high pressure will build east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Relatively flat flow aloft this morning gives way to weak ridge.
Weak frontal boundary nearby or just north weakens as warm front
remains well to the south and west.
Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region during the day
today.
Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny skies, once the low
clouds scour out.
High temperatures today away from the waters will rise into the
80s, if sunshine is in fact realized. 70s are forecast closer to
the coast due to onshore flow.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out a few showers across
western zones today as a weak shortwave moves through. Weak cape is
possible per NAM fcst soundings, but GFS shows enough mid level
warm air to provide a cap. Will maintain mention of thunder, but
generally expect isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge gives way to upstream trough, with lowering heights
noted across the northeast. At the surface, low pressure
traverses into Canada, pivoting north of the Great Lakes. A warm
front south and west of the area approaches tonight, and could
move through western portions of the area Sunday afternoon ahead
of a cold front.
Weak PVA is noted, and precipitable waters increase to 2 inches
plus by Sunday afternoon per GFS and NAM. Marginal instability
builds Sunday afternoon. Expect enough lift ahead of the warm
front for increasing coverage of showers tonight, and widespread
coverage Sunday due to plenty of lift, deep moisture and the frontal
boundary acting as a trigger. Ample shear could result in gusty
winds in any thunderstorm, especially western zones, and small
hail is possible as well. Heavy rain remains a threat, and timing
of enhanced thunderstorm activity would be during the afternoon
and into the evening. This is not a certainty however, as
instability remains marginal, and frontal position remains in
question.
With increasing clouds and onshore flow tonight, temps remain in the
60s. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening as the upper trough moves into the region and wind shear and
lift increase, with the strongest storms in the Lower Hudson Valley
into Northeastern New Jersey. The main threat will be strong and
potentially damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible. With
the loss of heating and the upper trough closing off and flattening
the threat of strong thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening
and overnight. The bulk of the shower activity moves east.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front dissipates nearby early this morning as high
pressure sets up offshore. A warm front will approach from the south
tonight.
Tough forecast into the morning hours as guidance is indicating
mainly IFR or lower at all terminals until the 12-15z time frame.
Conds are mainly holding steady at MVFR at all terminals except
KGON/KHPN...although cigs at a few of the non-TAF sites are starting
to decline. Guidance is indicating a light westerly flow by
12z...which may also keep these better conds across most of the TAF
sites. Will continue to watch trends and amend accordingly.
Otherwise...VFR returns by 16z all terminals with weak instability
developing n and w of NYC. A few isold showers or even a tstm is
possible during the aftn. Showers will increase in coverage
tonight...although it may hold off until aft 06z at all except KGON.
MVFR to IFR conds expected to return as well.
Winds may be more s-se than forecast aft 17z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Tonight...MVFR to IFR. showers with possibly an embedded tstm,
primarily west of KBDR-KISP.
.Sunday...Widespread IFR conditions developing. Showers with a
chance of thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through tonight outside
of any isolated thunderstorms that don`t fall apart before reaching
the waters.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southerly flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels Sunday night and continue through
Monday. Finally, gusts, mainly on the ocean waters, may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon/night.
SCA then possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night due to a
tightening pres gradient between departing low pres to the north and
high pres building to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected today.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to a new moon.
Tides are actually high enough to put some areas along the Long
Island south shore back bays into minor flood with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Only about 1/2 ft departures are needed for minor
flooding across the lower NY Harbor region. Will issue a coastal
flood advisory for the south shore back bays area, and a
statement for the lower NY Harbor region.
With stronger winds Sunday night, any coastal flooding could
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however.
As such, additional statements, or advisories may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...pw
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. While, Sunday
will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances for thunderstorms
as a low pressure system approaches and moves into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly
push southeastward across the southern portion of the fa. As the
front continues to slowly sag south and east, clearing will occur
behind the boundary. The front will gradually stall out in the
far southern parts of the CWA by later tonight.
Ridging will build in overnight at the surface and aloft. Cloud
cover will decrease and some patchy fog should form, although
clouds may continue to linger close to the boundary for the late
night hours for far southern areas. Expecting lows to drop into
the 50s with some 40s across the higher terrain of the western
Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will be the much nicer day of the weekend with dry
weather and warm temperatures as the upper ridge crests overhead.
Higher level clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon
especially later in the day in advance of an approaching low
pressure system. Forecasting high temperatures mainly ranging from
the mid 70s to mid 80s with the warmest readings up the Hudson
Valley and across northwestern Connecticut.
Clouds will be on the increase thickening and lowering Saturday
night as the ridge weakens and shifts off to the east and a warm
front approaches from the southwest. Isentropic forcing will
result in showers overspreading the area especially after midnight.
The warm front is not expected to lift north into or through the
local area. The system is expected to occluded Sunday afternoon
into the night as the upper trough becomes negatively titled. The
rainfall is expected to be moderate to possibly heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the QPF will occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Total
rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2 inches are forecast with locally
higher amounts around 3 inches possible. Showalter values are
forecast to lower to 0 to -2C indicating elevated instability will
be present so have chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening ahead of the occluding boundaries. Pops will decrease
Sunday night as the occluded boundary moves off to the area.
Sunday will be much cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to mid
70s due the extensive cloud cover and showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the extended period will be dominated by an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast, which will keep the
weather unsettled at times, with temperatures a little cooler than
recent days.
At the start of the period, a closed off upper level low will be
rotating from near the Great Lakes on Monday towards Quebec on
Tuesday. Although there will be clouds to start the day on Monday,
there should be some breaks of sun by Monday afternoon. Cannot rule
out some showers on Monday due to the cyclonic flow, but most areas
look to remain dry for much of Monday. Temperatures should warm well
into the 70s for most valley areas, with upper 60s over the higher
terrain.
As the upper level low moves towards Quebec, the trough axis will
move closer to the area for Tuesday. This should allow for a
greater coverage of showers on Tuesday as compared to Monday, with
slightly more clouds around. As a result of clouds/possible
showers, temps may be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday as compared to
Monday.
The upper level low will continue to sit and spin over Quebec on
Wednesday, as another fast moving shortwave rotates around backside
of the upper level low across the northern Great Lakes and heads
towards the area. This will continue to allow for some additional
showers, esp during the daytime hours thanks to diurnal heating.
Will continue to allow for a chc of showers for northern/western
areas, with slightly lower pops further south and east. Temps aloft
will be cooler, so highs will probably only reach the the 60s for
most areas.
The whole upper level trough will continue to track farther
south/east and move across northern New England by Thursday. With
the continued cyclonic flow, still cannot rule out some passing
showers from time to time, mainly for northern and high terrain
areas, although the chance should start to diminish by later in the
day as the system moves away from the area. Highs will range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.
The upper level trough will finally move away from the area by
Friday, but still cannot go with a dry forecast, since a surface
warm front will be lifting towards the area from the southwest. Will
continue to go with a low chc for rain showers with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky. Temps should be fairly close to seasonal
normals, with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through daybreak Saturday, areas of IFR CIGS and VSBYS will be
likely, as a fairly moist air mass remains in place with little or
no wind. There could be some slight drying and improvement toward
12Z, especially at KALB. The most persistent IFR conditions
through daybreak should be at KPSF.
After daybreak Saturday, any morning low clouds/FG/BR should
dissipate, allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take
until the mid to late morning for this to occur at KPOU, but
elsewhere the clearing should occur rather quickly. Much of the
day will just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Winds through daybreak should be light/variable at less than 4 KT.
On Saturday, winds should become NW to N at 4-8 KT. Winds will
become light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and
continue into Saturday evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. Minimum
relative humidity levels are expected to be around 40 percent in
the afternoon. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Saturday will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure
builds in. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region. The rainfall is expected to be moderate to
possibly heavy at times as precipitable water values rise to 1.5
to almost 2 inches Sunday. The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday
afternoon and evening with total rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2
inches are forecast with locally higher amounts around 3 inches
possible. Widespread flooding is not expected however substantial
within bank rises will occur.
Precipitation departures from normal since January 1st through
June 2nd...
Albany NY: -4.28 inches
Glens Falls NY: -3.10 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -5.65 inches
Bennington VT: -2.30 inches
Pittsfield MA: -3.28 inches
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...
Skies are showing signs of clearing but two areas of stratus are
moving into the area, one from the SW, the other from offshore SE
of MA. These two will attempt to fill in again tonight but may not
be as successful as previous nights mainly due to less advective
wind (mainly light and variable tonight). Still some fog/low
clouds can be expected, maintaining another somewhat mild
overnight. Slight adjustments made as the forecast appears on
track at this time.
Previous discussion...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
Overview and model preferences...
Deepening and gradually occluding system S of James Bay will
define the weather for much of early next week. 03.12Z model
guidance is settling on a solution for this feature which is
lending to higher confidence in day-to-day sensible wx details.
The initial reaction will be an area of widespread and possibly
heavy rainfall Sun as the trof prepares to cutoff taking on a
negative tilt. The second will be the from the destabilized nature
of the cutoff itself as it slowly meanders into QC, with a series
of shortwaves rotating around it. A blend of deterministic
guidance can still be used for much of the week, but ensembles
better support the slow transition away from the cutoff late in
the week.
Details...
Sun and Sun night...
Rain, heavy at times is the short definition for this Sunday.
Overruning precip event in advance of occluding low pres. Strong
isentropic lift implied by low-mid lvl veering profiles. Moisture
not lacking, as PWATs approach 2 inches (or nearly 2 std
deviations above normal) and K-values exceed 30. This is in part
thanks to another tropical moisture plume from the slowly eastward
progressing Bonnie. Therefore, will likely see pockets of heavier
rainfall through the afternoon and evening when lift peaks.
Widespread QPF values around 1.00 inches with locally heavier
amounts can be expected. Flooding risk mainly relegated to the
urban/small stream environments as main-stem rivers and streams
continue to run low. Will need to monitor for typical urban
flooding issues. Convective risk will be mainly S, where higher
sfc based CAPE, and warm sector moves through, coincident with
latest SPC DAY 3 Enhanced Risk. Srn New England never quite gets
into the warm sector, so any thunder would be widely scattered and
based on upper lvl instability as TT values approach 50. Still
something to watch as this may enhance the localized urban flood
risk. Rain tapers overnight and early Mon morning as occlusion
shifts N of the region.
Mon and Mon night...
Dry slot associated with slowly meandering cutoff and occlusion,
combined with w-nw cold advection will likely keep Mon mainly dry
in spite of cloud cover. Only NW reaches have best chance for
precip driven by upslope enhancement. Otherwise, breezy, with
temps at H85 near +12C temps could make a run into the low 80s,
but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover ultimately
observed.
Tue and Tue night...
Secondary cold front sweeps across New England exposing the cold
pool aloft. Plenty of lift, modest moisture with PWATs about 1.50+
inches, so widespread showers look likely. The one issue to
monitor is the convective potential. Shear is present, nearly 40
Kt 0-6KM, however the mitigating factor is the relatively low
instability. Sfc based CAPE generally below 1000j/kg. Even though
this synoptic setup is a typical one for New England SVR, this low
CAPE high shear environment makes it difficult to formulate an
outcome this far out. For now, will mention the risk. Temps near
to slightly above seasonal normals as the core of coldest air
holds until later in the week.
Wed and Wed night...
Cold pool settles aloft and thanks to continued cyclonic flow,
diurnally driven shra are possible. H5 temps near -18 to -20C
could support some t-storm development and a risk for graupel or
small hail with any shra/storms. This cold pool also suggests
cooler highs, mainly in the low-mid 70s rather than 80s
experienced earlier in the week.
Thu and Fri...
Ridging finally looks to attempt a shift, moving the core of the
cutoff to the E and allowing for anticyclonic flow aloft and a
building sfc high pres. Temps still near normal to seasonally cool
with the influence of the cold pool just to the NE. Models
indicating potential remnant ridge-rolling MCS, but this could
also be a convective feedback issue this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
VFR to start most places but gradual reduction to MVFR/IFR after
03Z especially Cape/Islands and SE MA. Inland, some ground fog
possible especially if some clearing is observed during the early
morning hours. Winds become light and variable.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun and Sun night...Moderate confidence.
Mix of MVFR/IFR with rain/fog most of Sun and Sun night with low
pres moving west of the region.
Mon...Moderate confidence.
VFR after early rains end, some lower cigs possible, but risk for
rain diminishes, breezy W-NW winds.
Tue and Wed...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR although afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...Moderate Confidence.
Deepening low pres will stay well NW of the waters with a front
moving through Sun night. Winds from S-SW Sun to to the W on Mon.
Gusts around 25 kt are possible late Sun and again Mon afternoon.
Seas in the meantime build, peaking Mon morning 5-8 ft and
diminishing thereafter. A period of small craft advisories may be
needed. Rain/fog lead to vsby restrictions especially Sun and Sun
night.
Tue and Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather expected outside of a shower or
leftover T-storms.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E Coast tides build through the weekend, peaking with a 12.2 ft
tide at Boston around 1230 Monday morning. Easterly flow is
possible both Fri and late Sun night, which occlude lead to a
enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary enters the region tonight and washes out
over the area into Saturday while weak high pressure sets up just
offshore. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Sunday
moves into eastern Canada Monday, bring a warm front through
Sunday morning and a cold front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The low will remain to the north for the start of the new
week, and then high pressure will build east for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient CAPE and a weak shortwave moving in, there will be
the chance of showers/tstms NW of the city this evening. Then the
lift weakens while the atmosphere becomes more stable, so will go
with a dry forecast for the overnight hours. Onshore flow will help
keep it mostly cloudy through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a mostly cloudy start, turning partly sunny for Saturday
afternoon with weak high pressure over the area. A shortwave
pushes in from the west during the afternoon, and with building
CAPE, there is a chance of showers and tstms over roughly the
western half of the CWA. Will go with lower-end chc to slight chc
pops since it seems that moisture will be fairly shallow. Used
superblend for high temps.
A warm front associated with low pressure to the west then begins to
approach from the SW Saturday night. Isentropic lift increases
over our area ahead of the front. In addition...a shortwave is
progged to approach and enter the vicinity of the NW zones. Also,
a theta-e ridge builds in and PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.00
inches. This combination of lift and moisture will increase rain
chances through the night, with rain likely for at least roughly
the NW half of the cwa by the end of the night. There could be a
thunderstorm, but probably isolated in nature, and more likely to
occur over the western half of the cwa where lift and CAPE will be
greater. Some heavy downpours are possible during the overnight
hours, but with the flow aloft increasing, storms should at least
not be very slow-moving.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper shortwave is becoming negatively tilted Sunday morning
through the upper midwest and Ohio valley. The trough moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic states and closes off Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. At the surface a frontal system will be moving
through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Sunday morning a
warm front moves through the region and the area will be in the
warm sector through the day, and a weak thermal ridge develops.
Even with the possibility of on going showers Sunday, daytime
heating will be enough for destabilization to occur as low level
lapse rates increase, and low level moisture also increases. Most
unstable CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon. Strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and into the evening as the upper trough moves into the
region and wind shear and lift increase, with the strongest storms
in the Lower Hudson Valley into Northeastern New Jersey. The main
threat will be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail is also possible. With the loss of heating and the upper
trough closing off and flattening the treat of strong
thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening and overnight.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure will give way to a dissipating cold front
approaching from the west this afternoon.
Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to start, but with
abundant moisture all terminals should return to IFR tonight as the
flow weakens. In the meantime, there is still some time for
improvement to MVFR as the batch of showers over Long Island
continues to move off to the east. Farther west, showers developing
ahead of the approaching cold front may impact KSWF prior to
00Z.
S/SE flow under 10 kt will continue into the evening before
becoming light overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 15Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of
the city.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through Saturday night
outside of any possible thunderstorms.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southeast flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels. Small craft seas likely linger into
Tuesday as a strong northwest flow prevails behind the cold front.
Finally, occasional gusts, mainly on the ocean waters,may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall into this evening is probably under a tenth of
an inch. No widespread significant rainfall is expected on
Saturday.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to an
upcoming new moon Sunday evening. Tides are actually high enough
to put some areas along the Long Island south shore back bays into
minor flood starting with tonight`s high tide cycle. Only about
1/2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding across the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens where a statement has been
issued for this evening. Expecting localized minor flooding here.
Tides will continue to run high enough to put some areas along
the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with the
high tide cycles Saturday night and Sunday night. Tidal
departures of 1/4 to 1/2 foot would also put some areas along
western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into minor flood
during the higher of the two daily tides, mainly Sunday night.
Background anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain
so through the weekend, so additional statements, or advisories
may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
- Cooler, unsettled weather pattern possible for rest of early June
*/ DISCUSSION...
An unsettled, cooler weather pattern advertised over New England per
averaged 1 to 2 week forecasts for early June via Climate Prediction
Center. Interrogating the bigger picture, low pressure maintains
over the N Pacific E of which progressive flow allows Pacific-origin
energy to waffle the EPO/PNA pattern with either ridging or cyclo-
genesis over the W CONUS mainly across the N / Canadian Rockies.
With Icelandic / Greenland ridging parent with a N Atlantic cutoff
low likely contributing to a -NAO/-AO pattern, E progressing storms
are slowed across Eastern N America creating a favorable environment
for mature storms to undergo maturation into occlusion. An ensemble
forecast evaluation shows that within such an environment H5 heights
are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal while H85 temperatures
are considerably below average beginning Sunday into early next week
which are discussed in detail below.
So to begin, a soaker Sunday into Sunday night. Widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms given a number of
convective indices just around their respective thresholds. An over-
running setup of S/SW flow of Gulf moisture (precipitable waters +2
standard deviations and within the 99th percentile of climatology)
undergoing isentropic ascent NE parent with a lifting warm front and
mid level vortex energy. Focus on convergent H925-85 flow beneath
favorable diffluence aloft more so in areas of with any instability
likely elevated. A challenge to nail down exactly where but thinking
that perhaps the 03.0z NAM may have the right idea with a secondary
low along the coast given the anomalous setup. Aside, the take-away
is that there will be a good slug of rain with rainfall amounts
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, locally higher around 1.50 inches.
Strong signal of such outcomes per ensemble means and probabalistics
for +1 inch. Maybe some nuisance poor-drainage flooding but honestly
feel the region should handle it with rainfall occurring over a
longer period of time. Otherwise, cool E/SE onshore flow ahead of
the warm front with deeper moisture aloft, likely some low cloud and
mist / fog issues throughout the period. Another challenge is when
the warm front will lift N. Possibly late Sunday into Sunday night
making for a non-diurnal temperature trend into Monday as flow
reverts S.
For Monday through Wednesday, contending with the occluded, stacked
low N and W over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Monday looks to
remain dry beneath the dry slot entraining into the system. But over
time the cold pool and cyclonic flow wobble S/E. With any mid-level
vortex energy rotating through the S periphery of the low combined
with diurnal heating, there is the chance for shower / thunderstorm
activity. Limited instability within a highly sheared environment
given poor environmental lapse rates, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a convective threat as originally thought, but will still
keep it in mind. Chance PoPs with higher confidence N/W closer to
the low. Temperatures closer to average.
End of the week, will keep Thursday dry. Thereafter a fair amount of
model forecast variability lending to low confidence. An ensemble
forecast approach has pacific-origin energy from the W potentially
interacting / phasing with energy drawn S out of the Arctic. It is
perhaps that the overall trend is for continued troughing across the
NE CONUS lending to a cooler, unsettled weather pattern as the
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
Though 00z this evening...Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR CIGS
should gradually improve to mainly VFR, except for portions of the
immediate south coast, Cape and Islands where lower CIGS may
persist. A few showers with the low risk of an isolated t-storm
across western MA through early this evening.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR away from the south coast
this evening, but low end MVFR-IFR with even some LIFR conditions
should develop in low clouds and areas of fog. Exact timing
uncertain.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, possible +RA with a lesser risk of
TSRA. Winds turning S and increasing with the potential for gusts
around 25 kts late Sunday evening, gradually backing S/SW overnight.
Potentially improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, dissipating into evening and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...
Increasing E/SE flow overnight with higher confidence of marine
stratus along with mist / drizzle / fog conditions developing.
Threat of visibility impacts down a mile or two. Waves below 5 feet.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, potentially heavy at times and possibly with some
embedded thunder. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind
which winds back out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 25 kts
throughout the period. Small craft advisories under consideration
along with waves on the outer waters building 5 to 6 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Feel conditions will be mainly dry with the primary threat being SW
winds gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters.
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
of 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1101 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions
today. Mild with rain Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
with the potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Mild and summer-like for Monday, while turning cooler through the
remainder of the week with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM Update...
Low clouds and fog have been stubborn to burn off through mid
morning along the immediate E coast into SE Mass due to light
onshore or calm winds. Morning visible satellite trends show low
clouds shifting S out of most of E coastal Mass at 14Z, so
conditions will finally improve by noontime. However, with
continued onshore winds across Cape Cod and the Islands up to near
the Cape Cod Canal, the clouds and fog will linger into at least
early afternoon. Low clouds and fog will also continue across the
near shore waters.
Elsewhere, noting veil of high clouds across the region, which is
not limiting the sunshine and warming temperatures. Away from the
E coast, temps have rebounded to the 70s at many locations at 14Z
with light N-NW or calm winds. Temps should continue to rise to
the lower-mid 80s, possible a few spots may get close to 90
mainly across N CT.
With such light winds inland, and onshore winds up to around 10
mph, do not think that there will be enough low level convergence
to get any sea breeze showers to develop. Can not totally rule it
out so did keep the slight chance going mainly across E Mass where
there could be enough wind to cause a few spot showers to develop
around mid to late afternoon.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current.
Previous discussion...
Mainly dry conditions but some of the guidance is hinting at a
spot shower in eastern MA/RI along the seabreeze boundary and have
just slight chc PoPs in this region. 850 mb temps 13-14C which
supports highs into the low to mid 80s away from the coast. Light
boundary layer winds will result in seabreezes developing which
will hold temps in the 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop over the
Cape/Islands and will likely spread inland overnight. Leading
edge of overrunning moisture moves into the region late tonight
and will bring some showers to western New Eng after 06z and
especially toward daybreak. Expect dry weather to hang on in the
east with showers moving in just after daybreak. Lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s with upper 50s Cape/Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Heavy rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, potential flooding
- Dry and summer-like for Monday
- An unsettled, cooler pattern for the remainder of the week
- Uncertainty in the forecast towards the late week / weekend
*/ DISCUSSION...
Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per
an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into
Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup
of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations
below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to
10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled
weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes
begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long
term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are
outlined below.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A soaker. Strong over-running signature of Gulf moisture wrapping
into an occluding low over the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers, a great deal of confidence of a 1 to
2 inch event given deep layer isentropic lift and dynamic forcing
along and ahead of a surface warm front gradually lifting NE across
New England with time, in addition to strong probabalistic signals
from ensemble guidance and CIPS analogs.
While the crux of heaviest rain is forecast across W/N Upstate NY, a
secondary area of development is possible collocated with a triple
point low emerging with the occlusion and the convergent nose of the
h925-85 low level jet across S New England. Parent low to mid level
frontogenesis and moist convergence of precipitable waters in excess
of 2-inches beneath mid-level vortex energy and diffluence aloft. A
robust theta-e plume and H85 dewpoints up around 15C, the modeled
airmass exhibiting tropical characteristics with a deep warm layer
up to H6 and accompanying cloud depth up to 4 km undergoes deep-
layer lift signaling an efficient warm-rain process. Coupled
conditionally unstable, moist adiabatic profile, convective
activity is plausible with the presence of elevated instability as
most of the time the warm sector remain well S/W over the Mid-
Atlantic. With any thunderstorms, will prevail heavy rain and
gusty winds.
Altogether within a timeframe of late Sunday into Sunday evening,
looking at a short duration event of roughly 6 hours during which
time a good slug of rain is forecast that could produce rainfall
rates of around 1-inch per hour. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches are possible. Confidence with respect to urban and poor-
drainage flooding, but can not rule out the possibility of flash
flooding to which the Weather Prediction Center presently has
much of the NE under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Likely a
need to monitor urban / small stream tributaries. Main stem rivers
and streams should be able to handle forecast rainfalls given
their low flows. Given the spread in solutions within short-term
high-res guidance, will hold off on any headlines and continue to
address within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise, SE flow prevailing for a time before the warm front kicks
N late in the forecast period. Considerable low level moisture with
higher dewpoints working in, likely low clouds with mist/fog issues
over a good chunk of S New England as conditions will remain cool,
gradually warming with a non-diurnal trend into evening as warm rain
processes lift N/E across the region. Highs Sunday could be met by
the end of the day after sunset around the upper 60s to low 70s.
Next week into the weekend...
Atypical early June pattern that has greater resemblance to Winter.
Continued cyclonic troughing through which mid-level vortex energy
will rotate as the parent cold pool wobbles S. The combination of
ingredients with any diurnal heating contribute to chance PoPs of
showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS. A low confidence
forecast given the complexities of forecast solutions in handling
individual waves round the broader vortex.
A consistent signal of Monday remaining dry and very summer-like as
drier air wraps across the region into the occluded low over the S
Hudson Bay region of Canada. Unsettled weather prevails thereafter
into the weekend as mid-level vortex energy rotates through the S
periphery of the broader trough pushing cooler air aloft further S.
With any diurnal heating in an environment with steepening lapse
rates, looking at the potential of low CAPE, high shear events.
Tuesday through Thursday this is possibly the case especially over
the interior. Purely speculative so far out in the forecast and thus
low confidence.
Unclear how the forecast evolves by the weekend, dependent as to
whether the broad troughing pattern can wobble E far enough to allow
ridging and high pressure to encroach from the W. Per ensembles, the
NE CONUS is shown to be within the W periphery of the trough. NW
flow prevailing with departure, a cooler pattern appears likely
though uncertain whether it is unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
This afternoon...High Confidence. IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
will likely linger through the afternoon across Cape Cod and the
Islands, but may see some brief breaks to VFR. Also noting MVFR
CIGS across SE Mass at 14Z, but should improve to VFR by 17Z-18Z.
Elsewhere, VFR. May see some SCT-BKN clouds developing across E
Mass/RI with low risk of spot shower or two, mainly after 18Z.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR stratus and fog redevelops
across Cape/islands in the evening and eventually spreads inland
overnight. Timing uncertain. Leading edge of showers will move
into CT valley toward daybreak.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs early this
morning but not expecting any vsby restrictions with s/sw winds.
Seabreeze develops by late morning.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, likely +RA with possible TSRA. Lower
conditions forecast with +RA. Winds turning S and increasing with
the potential for gusts around 30 kts late Sunday evening especially
over SE terminals , gradually backing S/SW overnight. Stronger gusts
possible with +RA/TSRA. Improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time. Perhaps MVFR/IFR lingers over
Nantucket.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, mainly across the interior, dissipating into evening and
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.
Expect light N winds across the eastern waters with SW winds on
the southern waters through this afternoon with local sea breezes.
Light winds will shift to S-SW tonight with approach of warm
front, but remain at 10 kt or less. S-SE winds will pick up during
Sunday, with gusts to 20 kt during the afternoon. Low chance of 25
kt gusts on the southern outer waters.
Main concern continues to be areas of fog...some locally dense,
through tonight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, heavy at times and possibly with some embedded
thunder. Subsequent visibility restrictions down around a mile or
two. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind which winds back
out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 30 kts throughout the
period. Small craft advisories under consideration along with waves
on the outer waters building 5 to 8 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. SW winds
gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
around 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide reaches 12.2 ft at Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible but don`t need much of a surge
to result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston around 1230 Monday
morning. Easterly flow is possible late Sun night, which could
lead to a enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1032 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be fair and summer like with warm temperatures as high
pressure moves across the area. Rain is forecast for Sunday along
with a chance of thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes. Monday looks mainly fair and breezy with
seasonable temperatures and just a chance of a passing afternoon
shower.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1032 AM EDT...Morning fog has dissipated leaving a high
thin cirrus deck to filter the sunshine. Temperatures are
generally in the 70s with some 60s in the higher terrain. Winds
are light and variable. Expect high clouds to gradually thicken
today, but mainly fair conditions expected. Just a slight chance
of a shower over Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties later
today as slow moving cold front combined with afternoon heating
may provide focus for a shower.
It will be a warm day as high pressure crests overhead. Highs
this afternoon will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts
to lift northeast from the Ohio valley this evening into western
New York and eastern Pennsylvania late tonight. In addition to the
clouds, showers will also be on the increase from southwest to
northeast especially after midnight. Lows tonight will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
The warm front may briefly move into the southwest third of the fa
on Sunday before the system becomes occluded. Have added enhanced
wording for heavy downpours on Sunday into Sunday evening as PWATS
rise to 1.5 to 2 inches while at the same time an extremely strong
theta e ridge crosses the fa Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Embedded within the area of showers will be scattered thunderstorms
as Showalter indices briefly drop to zero. Expecting total
rainfall amounts to be generally between 1.5 and 2.25 inches with
isolated amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible especially where
thunderstorms occur. The precipitation is expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast during the second half of Sunday
night. Expect highs on Sunday to only range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s in rain cooled air. Lows on Sunday night will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
On Monday there will still be scattered showers around as the
forecast area remains under cyclonic flow with the low pressure
system tracking across eastern Canada. The shower activity will
diminish Monday evening. Highs on Monday are expected to range
from the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows Monday night in the mid
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a
deep and anomalous upper level trough across eastern CONUS. This
will keep conditions cool and somewhat unsettled, with the best
chances for showers associated with individual disturbances rotating
around the parent upper level low, and also coincident with peak
diurnal heating. The trough axis is expected to pass across the
region late Tuesday into Wednesday, and then move east of the region
by Thursday. However, it should remain close enough to still have
some influence on portions of the region into Friday.
So, for some specifics, models seems to suggest the main trough axis
passes through late Tuesday into Wednesday, when several stronger
individual disturbances pass through. Expect scattered showers both
days, with greatest areal coverage expected in the afternoon hours.
Have also included mention of isolated thunderstorms during each
afternoon. Given such cold air aloft, small hail and gusty winds
could accompany any taller convective elements.
The main trough should move into eastern New England by Thursday,
and off the New England coast by Friday. However, lingering cold air
in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, and possible additional
upper level disturbances passing southeast across the region could
still allow for isolated to scattered showers for Thursday-Friday,
again with the best chances in the afternoon hours.
It will also be quite breezy for Tuesday-Thursday afternoons, with
some wind gusts possibly reaching at least 25-35 mph at times.
High temperatures on Tuesday should reach the 75-80 in valleys, and
60s to lower 70s across higher elevations. Slightly cooler for
Wednesday and Thursday as the main trough and upper level cold pool
move across, with high temperatures only reaching 65-70 in valleys,
and 55-60 across higher elevations, with some of the highest
elevations possibly only reaching the lower 50s or even cooler.
Slightly warmer for Friday, with high temperatures reaching the
lower/mid 70s for valleys, and 60s across higher elevations.
Overnight low temperatures through the period will mainly fall into
the lower/mid 50s for most lower elevations, with 40s across higher
elevations. If skies clear out for any duration, even colder low
temperatures, perhaps in the 30s, could occur across portions of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any morning low clouds/FG/BR should dissipate between 12Z-14Z/Sat,
allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take until the mid
to late morning for this to occur at KPOU. Much of the day will
then just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Then, low clouds will then expand back northward later tonight. In
addition, showers will develop from south to north between roughly
07Z-10Z/Sun ahead of an approaching warm front. Expect MVFR to IFR
conditions to develop during this time. There is a slight chance
that some embedded thunderstorms could occur as well, but overall
probability too low at this time range to include direct mention
in TAFS.
Light/variable winds at less than 4 KT should become W to NW at
4-8 KT later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and continue
into Saturday evening, before becoming more south to southeast
toward daybreak Sunday at 5-10 KT.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weakening cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region early this morning. Today
will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in.
While, Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances
for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and moves
into the region.
Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 55 percent today,
recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 70 to 85 percent
on Sunday.
Winds will be north to northwest around 5 mph today, light and
variable tonight, and southeast at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Today will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure builds
in. Clouds will increase tonight with showers developing. On Sunday
a soaking rainfall will occur along with chances for
thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and moves into
the region. The rainfall is expected to be heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday afternoon and evening with
total rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.25 inches forecast with
locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible in
thunderstorms. While river flooding is not expected there will be
significant within bank rises on the mainstem rivers. Urban
flooding, flooding of poorly drained low lying areas as well as
some flooding of small streams is possible.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
659 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions
today. Mild with rain Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
with the potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Mild and summer-like for Monday, while turning cooler through the
remainder of the week with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Areas of low clouds will burn off by mid morning across much of
SNE but may linger into early afternoon across portions of the
Cape and Islands. Clouds will give way to partly sunny skies as
diurnal cu develops given low level moisture in place. Mainly dry
conditions but some of the guidance is hinting at a spot shower in
eastern MA/RI along the seabreeze boundary and have just slight
chc PoPs in this region. 850 mb temps 13-14C which supports highs
into the low to mid 80s away from the coast. Light boundary layer
winds will result in seabreezes developing which will hold temps
in the 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop over the
Cape/Islands and will likely spread inland overnight. Leading edge
of overrunning moisture moves into the region late tonight and
will bring some showers to western New Eng after 06z and
especially toward daybreak. Expect dry weather to hang on in the
east with showers moving in just after daybreak. Lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s with upper 50s Cape/Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Heavy rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, potential flooding
- Dry and summer-like for Monday
- An unsettled, cooler pattern for the remainder of the week
- Uncertainty in the forecast towards the late week / weekend
*/ DISCUSSION...
Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per
an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into
Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup
of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations
below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to
10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled
weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes
begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long
term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are
outlined below.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A soaker. Strong over-running signature of Gulf moisture wrapping
into an occluding low over the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers, a great deal of confidence of a 1 to
2 inch event given deep layer isentropic lift and dynamic forcing
along and ahead of a surface warm front gradually lifting NE across
New England with time, in addition to strong probabalistic signals
from ensemble guidance and CIPS analogs.
While the crux of heaviest rain is forecast across W/N Upstate NY, a
secondary area of development is possible collocated with a triple
point low emerging with the occlusion and the convergent nose of the
h925-85 low level jet across S New England. Parent low to mid level
frontogenesis and moist convergence of precipitable waters in excess
of 2-inches beneath mid-level vortex energy and diffluence aloft. A
robust theta-e plume and H85 dewpoints up around 15C, the modeled
airmass exhibiting tropical characteristics with a deep warm layer
up to H6 and accompanying cloud depth up to 4 km undergoes deep-
layer lift signaling an efficient warm-rain process. Coupled
conditionally unstable, moist adiabatic profile, convective
activity is plausible with the presence of elevated instability as
most of the time the warm sector remain well S/W over the Mid-
Atlantic. With any thunderstorms, will prevail heavy rain and
gusty winds.
Altogether within a timeframe of late Sunday into Sunday evening,
looking at a short duration event of roughly 6 hours during which
time a good slug of rain is forecast that could produce rainfall
rates of around 1-inch per hour. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches are possible. Confidence with respect to urban and poor-
drainage flooding, but can not rule out the possibility of flash
flooding to which the Weather Prediction Center presently has
much of the NE under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Likely a
need to monitor urban / small stream tributaries. Main stem rivers
and streams should be able to handle forecast rainfalls given
their low flows. Given the spread in solutions within short-term
high-res guidance, will hold off on any headlines and continue to
address within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise, SE flow prevailing for a time before the warm front kicks
N late in the forecast period. Considerable low level moisture with
higher dewpoints working in, likely low clouds with mist/fog issues
over a good chunk of S New England as conditions will remain cool,
gradually warming with a non-diurnal trend into evening as warm rain
processes lift N/E across the region. Highs Sunday could be met by
the end of the day after sunset around the upper 60s to low 70s.
Next week into the weekend...
Atypical early June pattern that has greater resemblance to Winter.
Continued cyclonic troughing through which mid-level vortex energy
will rotate as the parent cold pool wobbles S. The combination of
ingredients with any diurnal heating contribute to chance PoPs of
showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS. A low confidence
forecast given the complexities of forecast solutions in handling
individual waves round the broader vortex.
A consistent signal of Monday remaining dry and very summer-like as
drier air wraps across the region into the occluded low over the S
Hudson Bay region of Canada. Unsettled weather prevails thereafter
into the weekend as mid-level vortex energy rotates through the S
periphery of the broader trough pushing cooler air aloft further S.
With any diurnal heating in an environment with steepening lapse
rates, looking at the potential of low CAPE, high shear events.
Tuesday through Thursday this is possibly the case especially over
the interior. Purely speculative so far out in the forecast and thus
low confidence.
Unclear how the forecast evolves by the weekend, dependent as to
whether the broad troughing pattern can wobble E far enough to allow
ridging and high pressure to encroach from the W. Per ensembles, the
NE CONUS is shown to be within the W periphery of the trough. NW
flow prevailing with departure, a cooler pattern appears likely
though uncertain whether it is unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
12z update...
Today...High Confidence. MVFR/IFR Low clouds and patchy fog will
burn off by mid/late morning although may linger into early
afternoon outer Cape and ACK. SCT-BKN cumulus developing with a
low risk for a spot shower in the afternoon eastern MA/RI.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR stratus and fog redevelops
across Cape/islands in the evening and eventually spreads inland
overnight. Timing uncertain. Leading edge of showers will move
into CT valley toward daybreak.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs early this
morning but not expecting any vsby restrictions with s/sw winds.
Seabreeze develops by late morning.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, likely +RA with possible TSRA. Lower
conditions forecast with +RA. Winds turning S and increasing with
the potential for gusts around 30 kts late Sunday evening especially
over SE terminals , gradually backing S/SW overnight. Stronger gusts
possible with +RA/TSRA. Improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time. Perhaps MVFR/IFR lingers over
Nantucket.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, mainly across the interior, dissipating into evening and
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.
7 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through tonight. Winds will become onshore
today over nearshore waters as seabreezes develop. Main concern
for mariners will be for areas of fog this morning and again
tonight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, heavy at times and possibly with some embedded
thunder. Subsequent visibility restrictions down around a mile or
two. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind which winds back
out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 30 kts throughout the
period. Small craft advisories under consideration along with waves
on the outer waters building 5 to 8 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. SW winds
gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
around 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide reaches 12.2 ft at Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible but don`t need much of a surge
to result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston around 1230 Monday
morning. Easterly flow is possible late Sun night, which could
lead to a enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...KJC/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary weakens today as high pressure remains
just offshore. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes tonight
and Sunday, then into eastern Canada Monday. A warm front moves
through Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The
low will remain to the north for the start of the new week, and
then high pressure will build east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Relatively flat flow aloft this morning gives way to weak ridge.
Weak frontal boundary nearby or just north weakens as warm front
remains well to the south and west.
Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region during the day
today.
Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny skies, once the low
clouds scour out.
High temperatures today away from the waters will rise into the
80s, if sunshine is in fact realized. 70s are forecast closer to
the coast due to onshore flow.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out a few showers across
western zones today as a weak shortwave moves through. Weak cape is
possible per NAM fcst soundings, but GFS shows enough mid level
warm air to provide a cap. Will maintain mention of thunder, but
generally expect isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge gives way to upstream trough, with lowering heights
noted across the northeast. At the surface, low pressure
traverses into Canada, pivoting north of the Great Lakes. A warm
front south and west of the area approaches tonight, and could
move through western portions of the area Sunday afternoon ahead
of a cold front.
Weak PVA is noted, and precipitable waters increase to 2 inches
plus by Sunday afternoon per GFS and NAM. Marginal instability
builds Sunday afternoon. Expect enough lift ahead of the warm
front for increasing coverage of showers tonight, and widespread
coverage Sunday due to plenty of lift, deep moisture and the frontal
boundary acting as a trigger. Ample shear could result in gusty
winds in any thunderstorm, especially western zones, and small
hail is possible as well. Heavy rain remains a threat, and timing
of enhanced thunderstorm activity would be during the afternoon
and into the evening. This is not a certainty however, as
instability remains marginal, and frontal position remains in
question.
With increasing clouds and onshore flow tonight, temps remain in the
60s. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening as the upper trough moves into the region and wind shear and
lift increase, with the strongest storms in the Lower Hudson Valley
into Northeastern New Jersey. The main threat will be strong and
potentially damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible. With
the loss of heating and the upper trough closing off and flattening
the threat of strong thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening
and overnight. The bulk of the shower activity moves east.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front dissipates nearby early this morning as high
pressure sets up offshore. A warm front will approach from the south
tonight.
Tough forecast into the morning hours as guidance is indicating
mainly IFR or lower at all terminals until the 12-15z time frame.
Conds are mainly holding steady at MVFR at all terminals except
KGON/KHPN...although cigs at a few of the non-TAF sites are starting
to decline. Guidance is indicating a light westerly flow by
12z...which may also keep these better conds across most of the TAF
sites. Will continue to watch trends and amend accordingly.
Otherwise...VFR returns by 16z all terminals with weak instability
developing n and w of NYC. A few isold showers or even a tstm is
possible during the aftn. Showers will increase in coverage
tonight...although it may hold off until aft 06z at all except KGON.
MVFR to IFR conds expected to return as well.
Winds may be more s-se than forecast aft 17z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Tonight...MVFR to IFR. showers with possibly an embedded tstm,
primarily west of KBDR-KISP.
.Sunday...Widespread IFR conditions developing. Showers with a
chance of thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through tonight outside
of any isolated thunderstorms that don`t fall apart before reaching
the waters.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southerly flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels Sunday night and continue through
Monday. Finally, gusts, mainly on the ocean waters, may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon/night.
SCA then possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night due to a
tightening pres gradient between departing low pres to the north and
high pres building to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected today.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to a new moon.
Tides are actually high enough to put some areas along the Long
Island south shore back bays into minor flood with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Only about 1/2 ft departures are needed for minor
flooding across the lower NY Harbor region. Will issue a coastal
flood advisory for the south shore back bays area, and a
statement for the lower NY Harbor region.
With stronger winds Sunday night, any coastal flooding could
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however.
As such, additional statements, or advisories may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...pw
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. While, Sunday
will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances for thunderstorms
as a low pressure system approaches and moves into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly
push southeastward across the southern portion of the fa. As the
front continues to slowly sag south and east, clearing will occur
behind the boundary. The front will gradually stall out in the
far southern parts of the CWA by later tonight.
Ridging will build in overnight at the surface and aloft. Cloud
cover will decrease and some patchy fog should form, although
clouds may continue to linger close to the boundary for the late
night hours for far southern areas. Expecting lows to drop into
the 50s with some 40s across the higher terrain of the western
Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will be the much nicer day of the weekend with dry
weather and warm temperatures as the upper ridge crests overhead.
Higher level clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon
especially later in the day in advance of an approaching low
pressure system. Forecasting high temperatures mainly ranging from
the mid 70s to mid 80s with the warmest readings up the Hudson
Valley and across northwestern Connecticut.
Clouds will be on the increase thickening and lowering Saturday
night as the ridge weakens and shifts off to the east and a warm
front approaches from the southwest. Isentropic forcing will
result in showers overspreading the area especially after midnight.
The warm front is not expected to lift north into or through the
local area. The system is expected to occluded Sunday afternoon
into the night as the upper trough becomes negatively titled. The
rainfall is expected to be moderate to possibly heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the QPF will occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Total
rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2 inches are forecast with locally
higher amounts around 3 inches possible. Showalter values are
forecast to lower to 0 to -2C indicating elevated instability will
be present so have chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening ahead of the occluding boundaries. Pops will decrease
Sunday night as the occluded boundary moves off to the area.
Sunday will be much cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to mid
70s due the extensive cloud cover and showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the extended period will be dominated by an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast, which will keep the
weather unsettled at times, with temperatures a little cooler than
recent days.
At the start of the period, a closed off upper level low will be
rotating from near the Great Lakes on Monday towards Quebec on
Tuesday. Although there will be clouds to start the day on Monday,
there should be some breaks of sun by Monday afternoon. Cannot rule
out some showers on Monday due to the cyclonic flow, but most areas
look to remain dry for much of Monday. Temperatures should warm well
into the 70s for most valley areas, with upper 60s over the higher
terrain.
As the upper level low moves towards Quebec, the trough axis will
move closer to the area for Tuesday. This should allow for a
greater coverage of showers on Tuesday as compared to Monday, with
slightly more clouds around. As a result of clouds/possible
showers, temps may be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday as compared to
Monday.
The upper level low will continue to sit and spin over Quebec on
Wednesday, as another fast moving shortwave rotates around backside
of the upper level low across the northern Great Lakes and heads
towards the area. This will continue to allow for some additional
showers, esp during the daytime hours thanks to diurnal heating.
Will continue to allow for a chc of showers for northern/western
areas, with slightly lower pops further south and east. Temps aloft
will be cooler, so highs will probably only reach the the 60s for
most areas.
The whole upper level trough will continue to track farther
south/east and move across northern New England by Thursday. With
the continued cyclonic flow, still cannot rule out some passing
showers from time to time, mainly for northern and high terrain
areas, although the chance should start to diminish by later in the
day as the system moves away from the area. Highs will range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.
The upper level trough will finally move away from the area by
Friday, but still cannot go with a dry forecast, since a surface
warm front will be lifting towards the area from the southwest. Will
continue to go with a low chc for rain showers with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky. Temps should be fairly close to seasonal
normals, with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through daybreak Saturday, areas of IFR CIGS and VSBYS will be
likely, as a fairly moist air mass remains in place with little or
no wind. There could be some slight drying and improvement toward
12Z, especially at KALB. The most persistent IFR conditions
through daybreak should be at KPSF.
After daybreak Saturday, any morning low clouds/FG/BR should
dissipate, allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take
until the mid to late morning for this to occur at KPOU, but
elsewhere the clearing should occur rather quickly. Much of the
day will just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Winds through daybreak should be light/variable at less than 4 KT.
On Saturday, winds should become NW to N at 4-8 KT. Winds will
become light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and
continue into Saturday evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. Minimum
relative humidity levels are expected to be around 40 percent in
the afternoon. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Saturday will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure
builds in. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region. The rainfall is expected to be moderate to
possibly heavy at times as precipitable water values rise to 1.5
to almost 2 inches Sunday. The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday
afternoon and evening with total rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2
inches are forecast with locally higher amounts around 3 inches
possible. Widespread flooding is not expected however substantial
within bank rises will occur.
Precipitation departures from normal since January 1st through
June 2nd...
Albany NY: -4.28 inches
Glens Falls NY: -3.10 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -5.65 inches
Bennington VT: -2.30 inches
Pittsfield MA: -3.28 inches
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...
Skies are showing signs of clearing but two areas of stratus are
moving into the area, one from the SW, the other from offshore SE
of MA. These two will attempt to fill in again tonight but may not
be as successful as previous nights mainly due to less advective
wind (mainly light and variable tonight). Still some fog/low
clouds can be expected, maintaining another somewhat mild
overnight. Slight adjustments made as the forecast appears on
track at this time.
Previous discussion...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
Overview and model preferences...
Deepening and gradually occluding system S of James Bay will
define the weather for much of early next week. 03.12Z model
guidance is settling on a solution for this feature which is
lending to higher confidence in day-to-day sensible wx details.
The initial reaction will be an area of widespread and possibly
heavy rainfall Sun as the trof prepares to cutoff taking on a
negative tilt. The second will be the from the destabilized nature
of the cutoff itself as it slowly meanders into QC, with a series
of shortwaves rotating around it. A blend of deterministic
guidance can still be used for much of the week, but ensembles
better support the slow transition away from the cutoff late in
the week.
Details...
Sun and Sun night...
Rain, heavy at times is the short definition for this Sunday.
Overruning precip event in advance of occluding low pres. Strong
isentropic lift implied by low-mid lvl veering profiles. Moisture
not lacking, as PWATs approach 2 inches (or nearly 2 std
deviations above normal) and K-values exceed 30. This is in part
thanks to another tropical moisture plume from the slowly eastward
progressing Bonnie. Therefore, will likely see pockets of heavier
rainfall through the afternoon and evening when lift peaks.
Widespread QPF values around 1.00 inches with locally heavier
amounts can be expected. Flooding risk mainly relegated to the
urban/small stream environments as main-stem rivers and streams
continue to run low. Will need to monitor for typical urban
flooding issues. Convective risk will be mainly S, where higher
sfc based CAPE, and warm sector moves through, coincident with
latest SPC DAY 3 Enhanced Risk. Srn New England never quite gets
into the warm sector, so any thunder would be widely scattered and
based on upper lvl instability as TT values approach 50. Still
something to watch as this may enhance the localized urban flood
risk. Rain tapers overnight and early Mon morning as occlusion
shifts N of the region.
Mon and Mon night...
Dry slot associated with slowly meandering cutoff and occlusion,
combined with w-nw cold advection will likely keep Mon mainly dry
in spite of cloud cover. Only NW reaches have best chance for
precip driven by upslope enhancement. Otherwise, breezy, with
temps at H85 near +12C temps could make a run into the low 80s,
but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover ultimately
observed.
Tue and Tue night...
Secondary cold front sweeps across New England exposing the cold
pool aloft. Plenty of lift, modest moisture with PWATs about 1.50+
inches, so widespread showers look likely. The one issue to
monitor is the convective potential. Shear is present, nearly 40
Kt 0-6KM, however the mitigating factor is the relatively low
instability. Sfc based CAPE generally below 1000j/kg. Even though
this synoptic setup is a typical one for New England SVR, this low
CAPE high shear environment makes it difficult to formulate an
outcome this far out. For now, will mention the risk. Temps near
to slightly above seasonal normals as the core of coldest air
holds until later in the week.
Wed and Wed night...
Cold pool settles aloft and thanks to continued cyclonic flow,
diurnally driven shra are possible. H5 temps near -18 to -20C
could support some t-storm development and a risk for graupel or
small hail with any shra/storms. This cold pool also suggests
cooler highs, mainly in the low-mid 70s rather than 80s
experienced earlier in the week.
Thu and Fri...
Ridging finally looks to attempt a shift, moving the core of the
cutoff to the E and allowing for anticyclonic flow aloft and a
building sfc high pres. Temps still near normal to seasonally cool
with the influence of the cold pool just to the NE. Models
indicating potential remnant ridge-rolling MCS, but this could
also be a convective feedback issue this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
VFR to start most places but gradual reduction to MVFR/IFR after
03Z especially Cape/Islands and SE MA. Inland, some ground fog
possible especially if some clearing is observed during the early
morning hours. Winds become light and variable.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun and Sun night...Moderate confidence.
Mix of MVFR/IFR with rain/fog most of Sun and Sun night with low
pres moving west of the region.
Mon...Moderate confidence.
VFR after early rains end, some lower cigs possible, but risk for
rain diminishes, breezy W-NW winds.
Tue and Wed...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR although afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...Moderate Confidence.
Deepening low pres will stay well NW of the waters with a front
moving through Sun night. Winds from S-SW Sun to to the W on Mon.
Gusts around 25 kt are possible late Sun and again Mon afternoon.
Seas in the meantime build, peaking Mon morning 5-8 ft and
diminishing thereafter. A period of small craft advisories may be
needed. Rain/fog lead to vsby restrictions especially Sun and Sun
night.
Tue and Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather expected outside of a shower or
leftover T-storms.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E Coast tides build through the weekend, peaking with a 12.2 ft
tide at Boston around 1230 Monday morning. Easterly flow is
possible both Fri and late Sun night, which occlude lead to a
enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary enters the region tonight and washes out
over the area into Saturday while weak high pressure sets up just
offshore. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Sunday
moves into eastern Canada Monday, bring a warm front through
Sunday morning and a cold front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The low will remain to the north for the start of the new
week, and then high pressure will build east for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient CAPE and a weak shortwave moving in, there will be
the chance of showers/tstms NW of the city this evening. Then the
lift weakens while the atmosphere becomes more stable, so will go
with a dry forecast for the overnight hours. Onshore flow will help
keep it mostly cloudy through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a mostly cloudy start, turning partly sunny for Saturday
afternoon with weak high pressure over the area. A shortwave
pushes in from the west during the afternoon, and with building
CAPE, there is a chance of showers and tstms over roughly the
western half of the CWA. Will go with lower-end chc to slight chc
pops since it seems that moisture will be fairly shallow. Used
superblend for high temps.
A warm front associated with low pressure to the west then begins to
approach from the SW Saturday night. Isentropic lift increases
over our area ahead of the front. In addition...a shortwave is
progged to approach and enter the vicinity of the NW zones. Also,
a theta-e ridge builds in and PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.00
inches. This combination of lift and moisture will increase rain
chances through the night, with rain likely for at least roughly
the NW half of the cwa by the end of the night. There could be a
thunderstorm, but probably isolated in nature, and more likely to
occur over the western half of the cwa where lift and CAPE will be
greater. Some heavy downpours are possible during the overnight
hours, but with the flow aloft increasing, storms should at least
not be very slow-moving.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper shortwave is becoming negatively tilted Sunday morning
through the upper midwest and Ohio valley. The trough moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic states and closes off Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. At the surface a frontal system will be moving
through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Sunday morning a
warm front moves through the region and the area will be in the
warm sector through the day, and a weak thermal ridge develops.
Even with the possibility of on going showers Sunday, daytime
heating will be enough for destabilization to occur as low level
lapse rates increase, and low level moisture also increases. Most
unstable CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon. Strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and into the evening as the upper trough moves into the
region and wind shear and lift increase, with the strongest storms
in the Lower Hudson Valley into Northeastern New Jersey. The main
threat will be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail is also possible. With the loss of heating and the upper
trough closing off and flattening the treat of strong
thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening and overnight.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure will give way to a dissipating cold front
approaching from the west this afternoon.
Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to start, but with
abundant moisture all terminals should return to IFR tonight as the
flow weakens. In the meantime, there is still some time for
improvement to MVFR as the batch of showers over Long Island
continues to move off to the east. Farther west, showers developing
ahead of the approaching cold front may impact KSWF prior to
00Z.
S/SE flow under 10 kt will continue into the evening before
becoming light overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 15Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of
the city.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through Saturday night
outside of any possible thunderstorms.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southeast flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels. Small craft seas likely linger into
Tuesday as a strong northwest flow prevails behind the cold front.
Finally, occasional gusts, mainly on the ocean waters,may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall into this evening is probably under a tenth of
an inch. No widespread significant rainfall is expected on
Saturday.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to an
upcoming new moon Sunday evening. Tides are actually high enough
to put some areas along the Long Island south shore back bays into
minor flood starting with tonight`s high tide cycle. Only about
1/2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding across the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens where a statement has been
issued for this evening. Expecting localized minor flooding here.
Tides will continue to run high enough to put some areas along
the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with the
high tide cycles Saturday night and Sunday night. Tidal
departures of 1/4 to 1/2 foot would also put some areas along
western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into minor flood
during the higher of the two daily tides, mainly Sunday night.
Background anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain
so through the weekend, so additional statements, or advisories
may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
- Cooler, unsettled weather pattern possible for rest of early June
*/ DISCUSSION...
An unsettled, cooler weather pattern advertised over New England per
averaged 1 to 2 week forecasts for early June via Climate Prediction
Center. Interrogating the bigger picture, low pressure maintains
over the N Pacific E of which progressive flow allows Pacific-origin
energy to waffle the EPO/PNA pattern with either ridging or cyclo-
genesis over the W CONUS mainly across the N / Canadian Rockies.
With Icelandic / Greenland ridging parent with a N Atlantic cutoff
low likely contributing to a -NAO/-AO pattern, E progressing storms
are slowed across Eastern N America creating a favorable environment
for mature storms to undergo maturation into occlusion. An ensemble
forecast evaluation shows that within such an environment H5 heights
are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal while H85 temperatures
are considerably below average beginning Sunday into early next week
which are discussed in detail below.
So to begin, a soaker Sunday into Sunday night. Widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms given a number of
convective indices just around their respective thresholds. An over-
running setup of S/SW flow of Gulf moisture (precipitable waters +2
standard deviations and within the 99th percentile of climatology)
undergoing isentropic ascent NE parent with a lifting warm front and
mid level vortex energy. Focus on convergent H925-85 flow beneath
favorable diffluence aloft more so in areas of with any instability
likely elevated. A challenge to nail down exactly where but thinking
that perhaps the 03.0z NAM may have the right idea with a secondary
low along the coast given the anomalous setup. Aside, the take-away
is that there will be a good slug of rain with rainfall amounts
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, locally higher around 1.50 inches.
Strong signal of such outcomes per ensemble means and probabalistics
for +1 inch. Maybe some nuisance poor-drainage flooding but honestly
feel the region should handle it with rainfall occurring over a
longer period of time. Otherwise, cool E/SE onshore flow ahead of
the warm front with deeper moisture aloft, likely some low cloud and
mist / fog issues throughout the period. Another challenge is when
the warm front will lift N. Possibly late Sunday into Sunday night
making for a non-diurnal temperature trend into Monday as flow
reverts S.
For Monday through Wednesday, contending with the occluded, stacked
low N and W over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Monday looks to
remain dry beneath the dry slot entraining into the system. But over
time the cold pool and cyclonic flow wobble S/E. With any mid-level
vortex energy rotating through the S periphery of the low combined
with diurnal heating, there is the chance for shower / thunderstorm
activity. Limited instability within a highly sheared environment
given poor environmental lapse rates, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a convective threat as originally thought, but will still
keep it in mind. Chance PoPs with higher confidence N/W closer to
the low. Temperatures closer to average.
End of the week, will keep Thursday dry. Thereafter a fair amount of
model forecast variability lending to low confidence. An ensemble
forecast approach has pacific-origin energy from the W potentially
interacting / phasing with energy drawn S out of the Arctic. It is
perhaps that the overall trend is for continued troughing across the
NE CONUS lending to a cooler, unsettled weather pattern as the
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
Though 00z this evening...Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR CIGS
should gradually improve to mainly VFR, except for portions of the
immediate south coast, Cape and Islands where lower CIGS may
persist. A few showers with the low risk of an isolated t-storm
across western MA through early this evening.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR away from the south coast
this evening, but low end MVFR-IFR with even some LIFR conditions
should develop in low clouds and areas of fog. Exact timing
uncertain.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, possible +RA with a lesser risk of
TSRA. Winds turning S and increasing with the potential for gusts
around 25 kts late Sunday evening, gradually backing S/SW overnight.
Potentially improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, dissipating into evening and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...
Increasing E/SE flow overnight with higher confidence of marine
stratus along with mist / drizzle / fog conditions developing.
Threat of visibility impacts down a mile or two. Waves below 5 feet.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, potentially heavy at times and possibly with some
embedded thunder. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind
which winds back out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 25 kts
throughout the period. Small craft advisories under consideration
along with waves on the outer waters building 5 to 6 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Feel conditions will be mainly dry with the primary threat being SW
winds gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters.
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
of 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary weakens today as high pressure remains just
offshore. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes tonight and
Sunday, then into eastern Canada Monday. A warm front moves
through Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The
low will remain to the north for the start of the new week, and
then high pressure will build east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is mostly on track. Made adjustments to hourly temps and
dewpoints as well as cloud cover to account for latest obs and
trends. Also bumped up high temp forecast slightly for some areas.
Generally partly sunny this afternoon.
Weak frontal boundary across the northern zones weakens further
this afternoon, leaving us with weak high pressure.
High temperatures today away from the waters will rise into the
80s, if sunshine is in fact realized. 70s are forecast closer to
the coast due to onshore flow.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out a few showers across
western zones today as a weak shortwave moves through. Weak cape is
possible per NAM fcst soundings, but GFS shows enough mid level
warm air to provide a cap. Will maintain mention of thunder, but
generally expect isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge gives way to upstream trough, with lowering heights
noted across the northeast. At the surface, low pressure
traverses into Canada, pivoting north of the Great Lakes. A warm
front south and west of the area approaches tonight, and could
move through western portions of the area Sunday afternoon ahead
of a cold front.
Weak PVA is noted, and precipitable waters increase to 2 inches
plus by Sunday afternoon per GFS and NAM. Marginal instability
builds Sunday afternoon. Expect enough lift ahead of the warm
front for increasing coverage of showers tonight, and widespread
coverage Sunday due to plenty of lift, deep moisture and the frontal
boundary acting as a trigger. Ample shear could result in gusty
winds in any thunderstorm, especially western zones, and small
hail is possible as well. Heavy rain remains a threat, and timing
of enhanced thunderstorm activity would be during the afternoon
and into the evening. This is not a certainty however, as
instability remains marginal, and frontal position remains in
question.
With increasing clouds and onshore flow tonight, temps remain in the
60s. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening as the upper trough moves into the region and wind shear and
lift increase, with the strongest storms in the Lower Hudson Valley
into Northeastern New Jersey. The main threat will be strong and
potentially damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible. With
the loss of heating and the upper trough closing off and flattening
the threat of strong thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening
and overnight. The bulk of the shower activity moves east.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front will develop to the s of the region tngt...and pass
thru the area during the day Sun.
Vfr for the rest of the day...then mvfr or lower develops quickly
tngt. Best chances for fog and vlifr from kisp to kgon.
There is some uncertainty wrt the exact evolution of rain chances.
For this aftn and eve...a few shwrs or tstms possible mainly w of
the Hudson River. Then overnight into Sun mrng...rain develops in
advance of the warm front...but attm the focus appears to remain n
of the city and close to or just n of kswf. S of this area of
rain...chances for lgt rain or dz in a moist airmass. As a
result...the tafs indicate vsby restrictions in -ra and/or br for
this time period.
Heavier shwrs and embedded tstms cannot be ruled out Sun mrng.
The main sys comes thru aft 18z...with widespread rain and tstms
likely. Prob30 for tstms for now til timing/placement can be
better refined.
Sly winds today backing to the se tngt thru Sun. Some variability
in direction tngt and Sun mrng invof shwrs.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Rest of Sun...Mainly ifr with tstms likely in the late aftn and
eve...then becoming vfr. Se winds becoming w overnight as the sys
passes.
.Mon...Vfr with sw flow.
.Tue...Vfr with sw flow becoming nly overnight behind a cfp.
.Wed...Vfr with nw flow.
.Thu...Vfr with nw flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through tonight outside
of any isolated thunderstorms that don`t fall apart before reaching
the waters.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southerly flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels Sunday night and continue through
Monday. Finally, gusts, mainly on the ocean waters, may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon/night.
SCA then possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night due to a
tightening pres gradient between departing low pres to the north and
high pres building to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected today.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to a new moon.
Tides are actually high enough to put some areas along the Long
Island south shore back bays into minor flood with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Only about 1/2 ft departures are needed for minor
flooding across the lower NY Harbor region. Will issue a coastal
flood advisory for the south shore back bays area, and a
statement for the lower NY Harbor region.
With stronger winds Sunday night, any coastal flooding could
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however.
As such, additional statements, or advisories may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...JC/PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1101 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions
today. Mild with rain Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
with the potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Mild and summer-like for Monday, while turning cooler through the
remainder of the week with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM Update...
Low clouds and fog have been stubborn to burn off through mid
morning along the immediate E coast into SE Mass due to light
onshore or calm winds. Morning visible satellite trends show low
clouds shifting S out of most of E coastal Mass at 14Z, so
conditions will finally improve by noontime. However, with
continued onshore winds across Cape Cod and the Islands up to near
the Cape Cod Canal, the clouds and fog will linger into at least
early afternoon. Low clouds and fog will also continue across the
near shore waters.
Elsewhere, noting veil of high clouds across the region, which is
not limiting the sunshine and warming temperatures. Away from the
E coast, temps have rebounded to the 70s at many locations at 14Z
with light N-NW or calm winds. Temps should continue to rise to
the lower-mid 80s, possible a few spots may get close to 90
mainly across N CT.
With such light winds inland, and onshore winds up to around 10
mph, do not think that there will be enough low level convergence
to get any sea breeze showers to develop. Can not totally rule it
out so did keep the slight chance going mainly across E Mass where
there could be enough wind to cause a few spot showers to develop
around mid to late afternoon.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current.
Previous discussion...
Mainly dry conditions but some of the guidance is hinting at a
spot shower in eastern MA/RI along the seabreeze boundary and have
just slight chc PoPs in this region. 850 mb temps 13-14C which
supports highs into the low to mid 80s away from the coast. Light
boundary layer winds will result in seabreezes developing which
will hold temps in the 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop over the
Cape/Islands and will likely spread inland overnight. Leading
edge of overrunning moisture moves into the region late tonight
and will bring some showers to western New Eng after 06z and
especially toward daybreak. Expect dry weather to hang on in the
east with showers moving in just after daybreak. Lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s with upper 50s Cape/Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Heavy rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, potential flooding
- Dry and summer-like for Monday
- An unsettled, cooler pattern for the remainder of the week
- Uncertainty in the forecast towards the late week / weekend
*/ DISCUSSION...
Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per
an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into
Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup
of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations
below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to
10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled
weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes
begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long
term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are
outlined below.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A soaker. Strong over-running signature of Gulf moisture wrapping
into an occluding low over the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers, a great deal of confidence of a 1 to
2 inch event given deep layer isentropic lift and dynamic forcing
along and ahead of a surface warm front gradually lifting NE across
New England with time, in addition to strong probabalistic signals
from ensemble guidance and CIPS analogs.
While the crux of heaviest rain is forecast across W/N Upstate NY, a
secondary area of development is possible collocated with a triple
point low emerging with the occlusion and the convergent nose of the
h925-85 low level jet across S New England. Parent low to mid level
frontogenesis and moist convergence of precipitable waters in excess
of 2-inches beneath mid-level vortex energy and diffluence aloft. A
robust theta-e plume and H85 dewpoints up around 15C, the modeled
airmass exhibiting tropical characteristics with a deep warm layer
up to H6 and accompanying cloud depth up to 4 km undergoes deep-
layer lift signaling an efficient warm-rain process. Coupled
conditionally unstable, moist adiabatic profile, convective
activity is plausible with the presence of elevated instability as
most of the time the warm sector remain well S/W over the Mid-
Atlantic. With any thunderstorms, will prevail heavy rain and
gusty winds.
Altogether within a timeframe of late Sunday into Sunday evening,
looking at a short duration event of roughly 6 hours during which
time a good slug of rain is forecast that could produce rainfall
rates of around 1-inch per hour. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches are possible. Confidence with respect to urban and poor-
drainage flooding, but can not rule out the possibility of flash
flooding to which the Weather Prediction Center presently has
much of the NE under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Likely a
need to monitor urban / small stream tributaries. Main stem rivers
and streams should be able to handle forecast rainfalls given
their low flows. Given the spread in solutions within short-term
high-res guidance, will hold off on any headlines and continue to
address within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise, SE flow prevailing for a time before the warm front kicks
N late in the forecast period. Considerable low level moisture with
higher dewpoints working in, likely low clouds with mist/fog issues
over a good chunk of S New England as conditions will remain cool,
gradually warming with a non-diurnal trend into evening as warm rain
processes lift N/E across the region. Highs Sunday could be met by
the end of the day after sunset around the upper 60s to low 70s.
Next week into the weekend...
Atypical early June pattern that has greater resemblance to Winter.
Continued cyclonic troughing through which mid-level vortex energy
will rotate as the parent cold pool wobbles S. The combination of
ingredients with any diurnal heating contribute to chance PoPs of
showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS. A low confidence
forecast given the complexities of forecast solutions in handling
individual waves round the broader vortex.
A consistent signal of Monday remaining dry and very summer-like as
drier air wraps across the region into the occluded low over the S
Hudson Bay region of Canada. Unsettled weather prevails thereafter
into the weekend as mid-level vortex energy rotates through the S
periphery of the broader trough pushing cooler air aloft further S.
With any diurnal heating in an environment with steepening lapse
rates, looking at the potential of low CAPE, high shear events.
Tuesday through Thursday this is possibly the case especially over
the interior. Purely speculative so far out in the forecast and thus
low confidence.
Unclear how the forecast evolves by the weekend, dependent as to
whether the broad troughing pattern can wobble E far enough to allow
ridging and high pressure to encroach from the W. Per ensembles, the
NE CONUS is shown to be within the W periphery of the trough. NW
flow prevailing with departure, a cooler pattern appears likely
though uncertain whether it is unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
This afternoon...High Confidence. IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
will likely linger through the afternoon across Cape Cod and the
Islands, but may see some brief breaks to VFR. Also noting MVFR
CIGS across SE Mass at 14Z, but should improve to VFR by 17Z-18Z.
Elsewhere, VFR. May see some SCT-BKN clouds developing across E
Mass/RI with low risk of spot shower or two, mainly after 18Z.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR stratus and fog redevelops
across Cape/islands in the evening and eventually spreads inland
overnight. Timing uncertain. Leading edge of showers will move
into CT valley toward daybreak.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs early this
morning but not expecting any vsby restrictions with s/sw winds.
Seabreeze develops by late morning.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, likely +RA with possible TSRA. Lower
conditions forecast with +RA. Winds turning S and increasing with
the potential for gusts around 30 kts late Sunday evening especially
over SE terminals , gradually backing S/SW overnight. Stronger gusts
possible with +RA/TSRA. Improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time. Perhaps MVFR/IFR lingers over
Nantucket.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, mainly across the interior, dissipating into evening and
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.
Expect light N winds across the eastern waters with SW winds on
the southern waters through this afternoon with local sea breezes.
Light winds will shift to S-SW tonight with approach of warm
front, but remain at 10 kt or less. S-SE winds will pick up during
Sunday, with gusts to 20 kt during the afternoon. Low chance of 25
kt gusts on the southern outer waters.
Main concern continues to be areas of fog...some locally dense,
through tonight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, heavy at times and possibly with some embedded
thunder. Subsequent visibility restrictions down around a mile or
two. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind which winds back
out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 30 kts throughout the
period. Small craft advisories under consideration along with waves
on the outer waters building 5 to 8 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. SW winds
gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
around 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide reaches 12.2 ft at Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible but don`t need much of a surge
to result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston around 1230 Monday
morning. Easterly flow is possible late Sun night, which could
lead to a enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1032 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be fair and summer like with warm temperatures as high
pressure moves across the area. Rain is forecast for Sunday along
with a chance of thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes. Monday looks mainly fair and breezy with
seasonable temperatures and just a chance of a passing afternoon
shower.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1032 AM EDT...Morning fog has dissipated leaving a high
thin cirrus deck to filter the sunshine. Temperatures are
generally in the 70s with some 60s in the higher terrain. Winds
are light and variable. Expect high clouds to gradually thicken
today, but mainly fair conditions expected. Just a slight chance
of a shower over Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties later
today as slow moving cold front combined with afternoon heating
may provide focus for a shower.
It will be a warm day as high pressure crests overhead. Highs
this afternoon will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight clouds will be on the increase as a warm front starts
to lift northeast from the Ohio valley this evening into western
New York and eastern Pennsylvania late tonight. In addition to the
clouds, showers will also be on the increase from southwest to
northeast especially after midnight. Lows tonight will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
The warm front may briefly move into the southwest third of the fa
on Sunday before the system becomes occluded. Have added enhanced
wording for heavy downpours on Sunday into Sunday evening as PWATS
rise to 1.5 to 2 inches while at the same time an extremely strong
theta e ridge crosses the fa Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Embedded within the area of showers will be scattered thunderstorms
as Showalter indices briefly drop to zero. Expecting total
rainfall amounts to be generally between 1.5 and 2.25 inches with
isolated amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible especially where
thunderstorms occur. The precipitation is expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast during the second half of Sunday
night. Expect highs on Sunday to only range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s in rain cooled air. Lows on Sunday night will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.
On Monday there will still be scattered showers around as the
forecast area remains under cyclonic flow with the low pressure
system tracking across eastern Canada. The shower activity will
diminish Monday evening. Highs on Monday are expected to range
from the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows Monday night in the mid
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a
deep and anomalous upper level trough across eastern CONUS. This
will keep conditions cool and somewhat unsettled, with the best
chances for showers associated with individual disturbances rotating
around the parent upper level low, and also coincident with peak
diurnal heating. The trough axis is expected to pass across the
region late Tuesday into Wednesday, and then move east of the region
by Thursday. However, it should remain close enough to still have
some influence on portions of the region into Friday.
So, for some specifics, models seems to suggest the main trough axis
passes through late Tuesday into Wednesday, when several stronger
individual disturbances pass through. Expect scattered showers both
days, with greatest areal coverage expected in the afternoon hours.
Have also included mention of isolated thunderstorms during each
afternoon. Given such cold air aloft, small hail and gusty winds
could accompany any taller convective elements.
The main trough should move into eastern New England by Thursday,
and off the New England coast by Friday. However, lingering cold air
in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, and possible additional
upper level disturbances passing southeast across the region could
still allow for isolated to scattered showers for Thursday-Friday,
again with the best chances in the afternoon hours.
It will also be quite breezy for Tuesday-Thursday afternoons, with
some wind gusts possibly reaching at least 25-35 mph at times.
High temperatures on Tuesday should reach the 75-80 in valleys, and
60s to lower 70s across higher elevations. Slightly cooler for
Wednesday and Thursday as the main trough and upper level cold pool
move across, with high temperatures only reaching 65-70 in valleys,
and 55-60 across higher elevations, with some of the highest
elevations possibly only reaching the lower 50s or even cooler.
Slightly warmer for Friday, with high temperatures reaching the
lower/mid 70s for valleys, and 60s across higher elevations.
Overnight low temperatures through the period will mainly fall into
the lower/mid 50s for most lower elevations, with 40s across higher
elevations. If skies clear out for any duration, even colder low
temperatures, perhaps in the 30s, could occur across portions of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any morning low clouds/FG/BR should dissipate between 12Z-14Z/Sat,
allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take until the mid
to late morning for this to occur at KPOU. Much of the day will
then just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Then, low clouds will then expand back northward later tonight. In
addition, showers will develop from south to north between roughly
07Z-10Z/Sun ahead of an approaching warm front. Expect MVFR to IFR
conditions to develop during this time. There is a slight chance
that some embedded thunderstorms could occur as well, but overall
probability too low at this time range to include direct mention
in TAFS.
Light/variable winds at less than 4 KT should become W to NW at
4-8 KT later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and continue
into Saturday evening, before becoming more south to southeast
toward daybreak Sunday at 5-10 KT.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weakening cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region early this morning. Today
will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in.
While, Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances
for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and moves
into the region.
Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 55 percent today,
recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 70 to 85 percent
on Sunday.
Winds will be north to northwest around 5 mph today, light and
variable tonight, and southeast at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Today will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure builds
in. Clouds will increase tonight with showers developing. On Sunday
a soaking rainfall will occur along with chances for
thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and moves into
the region. The rainfall is expected to be heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday afternoon and evening with
total rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.25 inches forecast with
locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible in
thunderstorms. While river flooding is not expected there will be
significant within bank rises on the mainstem rivers. Urban
flooding, flooding of poorly drained low lying areas as well as
some flooding of small streams is possible.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
659 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry and warm conditions
today. Mild with rain Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
with the potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Mild and summer-like for Monday, while turning cooler through the
remainder of the week with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Areas of low clouds will burn off by mid morning across much of
SNE but may linger into early afternoon across portions of the
Cape and Islands. Clouds will give way to partly sunny skies as
diurnal cu develops given low level moisture in place. Mainly dry
conditions but some of the guidance is hinting at a spot shower in
eastern MA/RI along the seabreeze boundary and have just slight
chc PoPs in this region. 850 mb temps 13-14C which supports highs
into the low to mid 80s away from the coast. Light boundary layer
winds will result in seabreezes developing which will hold temps
in the 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop over the
Cape/Islands and will likely spread inland overnight. Leading edge
of overrunning moisture moves into the region late tonight and
will bring some showers to western New Eng after 06z and
especially toward daybreak. Expect dry weather to hang on in the
east with showers moving in just after daybreak. Lows will be
mainly in the lower 60s with upper 50s Cape/Islands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Heavy rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, potential flooding
- Dry and summer-like for Monday
- An unsettled, cooler pattern for the remainder of the week
- Uncertainty in the forecast towards the late week / weekend
*/ DISCUSSION...
Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per
an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into
Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup
of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations
below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to
10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled
weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes
begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long
term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are
outlined below.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A soaker. Strong over-running signature of Gulf moisture wrapping
into an occluding low over the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain
with embedded heavier showers, a great deal of confidence of a 1 to
2 inch event given deep layer isentropic lift and dynamic forcing
along and ahead of a surface warm front gradually lifting NE across
New England with time, in addition to strong probabalistic signals
from ensemble guidance and CIPS analogs.
While the crux of heaviest rain is forecast across W/N Upstate NY, a
secondary area of development is possible collocated with a triple
point low emerging with the occlusion and the convergent nose of the
h925-85 low level jet across S New England. Parent low to mid level
frontogenesis and moist convergence of precipitable waters in excess
of 2-inches beneath mid-level vortex energy and diffluence aloft. A
robust theta-e plume and H85 dewpoints up around 15C, the modeled
airmass exhibiting tropical characteristics with a deep warm layer
up to H6 and accompanying cloud depth up to 4 km undergoes deep-
layer lift signaling an efficient warm-rain process. Coupled
conditionally unstable, moist adiabatic profile, convective
activity is plausible with the presence of elevated instability as
most of the time the warm sector remain well S/W over the Mid-
Atlantic. With any thunderstorms, will prevail heavy rain and
gusty winds.
Altogether within a timeframe of late Sunday into Sunday evening,
looking at a short duration event of roughly 6 hours during which
time a good slug of rain is forecast that could produce rainfall
rates of around 1-inch per hour. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches are possible. Confidence with respect to urban and poor-
drainage flooding, but can not rule out the possibility of flash
flooding to which the Weather Prediction Center presently has
much of the NE under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Likely a
need to monitor urban / small stream tributaries. Main stem rivers
and streams should be able to handle forecast rainfalls given
their low flows. Given the spread in solutions within short-term
high-res guidance, will hold off on any headlines and continue to
address within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise, SE flow prevailing for a time before the warm front kicks
N late in the forecast period. Considerable low level moisture with
higher dewpoints working in, likely low clouds with mist/fog issues
over a good chunk of S New England as conditions will remain cool,
gradually warming with a non-diurnal trend into evening as warm rain
processes lift N/E across the region. Highs Sunday could be met by
the end of the day after sunset around the upper 60s to low 70s.
Next week into the weekend...
Atypical early June pattern that has greater resemblance to Winter.
Continued cyclonic troughing through which mid-level vortex energy
will rotate as the parent cold pool wobbles S. The combination of
ingredients with any diurnal heating contribute to chance PoPs of
showers and thunderstorms across the NE CONUS. A low confidence
forecast given the complexities of forecast solutions in handling
individual waves round the broader vortex.
A consistent signal of Monday remaining dry and very summer-like as
drier air wraps across the region into the occluded low over the S
Hudson Bay region of Canada. Unsettled weather prevails thereafter
into the weekend as mid-level vortex energy rotates through the S
periphery of the broader trough pushing cooler air aloft further S.
With any diurnal heating in an environment with steepening lapse
rates, looking at the potential of low CAPE, high shear events.
Tuesday through Thursday this is possibly the case especially over
the interior. Purely speculative so far out in the forecast and thus
low confidence.
Unclear how the forecast evolves by the weekend, dependent as to
whether the broad troughing pattern can wobble E far enough to allow
ridging and high pressure to encroach from the W. Per ensembles, the
NE CONUS is shown to be within the W periphery of the trough. NW
flow prevailing with departure, a cooler pattern appears likely
though uncertain whether it is unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...
12z update...
Today...High Confidence. MVFR/IFR Low clouds and patchy fog will
burn off by mid/late morning although may linger into early
afternoon outer Cape and ACK. SCT-BKN cumulus developing with a
low risk for a spot shower in the afternoon eastern MA/RI.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. IFR stratus and fog redevelops
across Cape/islands in the evening and eventually spreads inland
overnight. Timing uncertain. Leading edge of showers will move
into CT valley toward daybreak.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs early this
morning but not expecting any vsby restrictions with s/sw winds.
Seabreeze develops by late morning.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, likely +RA with possible TSRA. Lower
conditions forecast with +RA. Winds turning S and increasing with
the potential for gusts around 30 kts late Sunday evening especially
over SE terminals , gradually backing S/SW overnight. Stronger gusts
possible with +RA/TSRA. Improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time. Perhaps MVFR/IFR lingers over
Nantucket.
Tuesday into Wednesday...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, mainly across the interior, dissipating into evening and
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence.
7 am update...no major changes to the forecast.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through tonight. Winds will become onshore
today over nearshore waters as seabreezes develop. Main concern
for mariners will be for areas of fog this morning and again
tonight.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, heavy at times and possibly with some embedded
thunder. Subsequent visibility restrictions down around a mile or
two. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind which winds back
out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 30 kts throughout the
period. Small craft advisories under consideration along with waves
on the outer waters building 5 to 8 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. SW winds
gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
around 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tonight...Astronomical high tide reaches 12.2 ft at Boston around
1130 pm. Wave action is negligible but don`t need much of a surge
to result in minor splashover along eastern MA coastline.
There is another 12.2 ft tide at Boston around 1230 Monday
morning. Easterly flow is possible late Sun night, which could
lead to a enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...KJC/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary weakens today as high pressure remains
just offshore. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes tonight
and Sunday, then into eastern Canada Monday. A warm front moves
through Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The
low will remain to the north for the start of the new week, and
then high pressure will build east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Relatively flat flow aloft this morning gives way to weak ridge.
Weak frontal boundary nearby or just north weakens as warm front
remains well to the south and west.
Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region during the day
today.
Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny skies, once the low
clouds scour out.
High temperatures today away from the waters will rise into the
80s, if sunshine is in fact realized. 70s are forecast closer to
the coast due to onshore flow.
As for any precipitation, cannot rule out a few showers across
western zones today as a weak shortwave moves through. Weak cape is
possible per NAM fcst soundings, but GFS shows enough mid level
warm air to provide a cap. Will maintain mention of thunder, but
generally expect isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge gives way to upstream trough, with lowering heights
noted across the northeast. At the surface, low pressure
traverses into Canada, pivoting north of the Great Lakes. A warm
front south and west of the area approaches tonight, and could
move through western portions of the area Sunday afternoon ahead
of a cold front.
Weak PVA is noted, and precipitable waters increase to 2 inches
plus by Sunday afternoon per GFS and NAM. Marginal instability
builds Sunday afternoon. Expect enough lift ahead of the warm
front for increasing coverage of showers tonight, and widespread
coverage Sunday due to plenty of lift, deep moisture and the frontal
boundary acting as a trigger. Ample shear could result in gusty
winds in any thunderstorm, especially western zones, and small
hail is possible as well. Heavy rain remains a threat, and timing
of enhanced thunderstorm activity would be during the afternoon
and into the evening. This is not a certainty however, as
instability remains marginal, and frontal position remains in
question.
With increasing clouds and onshore flow tonight, temps remain in the
60s. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible into the
evening as the upper trough moves into the region and wind shear and
lift increase, with the strongest storms in the Lower Hudson Valley
into Northeastern New Jersey. The main threat will be strong and
potentially damaging wind gusts. Small hail is also possible. With
the loss of heating and the upper trough closing off and flattening
the threat of strong thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening
and overnight. The bulk of the shower activity moves east.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front dissipates nearby early this morning as high
pressure sets up offshore. A warm front will approach from the south
tonight.
Tough forecast into the morning hours as guidance is indicating
mainly IFR or lower at all terminals until the 12-15z time frame.
Conds are mainly holding steady at MVFR at all terminals except
KGON/KHPN...although cigs at a few of the non-TAF sites are starting
to decline. Guidance is indicating a light westerly flow by
12z...which may also keep these better conds across most of the TAF
sites. Will continue to watch trends and amend accordingly.
Otherwise...VFR returns by 16z all terminals with weak instability
developing n and w of NYC. A few isold showers or even a tstm is
possible during the aftn. Showers will increase in coverage
tonight...although it may hold off until aft 06z at all except KGON.
MVFR to IFR conds expected to return as well.
Winds may be more s-se than forecast aft 17z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Tonight...MVFR to IFR. showers with possibly an embedded tstm,
primarily west of KBDR-KISP.
.Sunday...Widespread IFR conditions developing. Showers with a
chance of thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through tonight outside
of any isolated thunderstorms that don`t fall apart before reaching
the waters.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southerly flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels Sunday night and continue through
Monday. Finally, gusts, mainly on the ocean waters, may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon/night.
SCA then possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night due to a
tightening pres gradient between departing low pres to the north and
high pres building to the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected today.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to a new moon.
Tides are actually high enough to put some areas along the Long
Island south shore back bays into minor flood with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Only about 1/2 ft departures are needed for minor
flooding across the lower NY Harbor region. Will issue a coastal
flood advisory for the south shore back bays area, and a
statement for the lower NY Harbor region.
With stronger winds Sunday night, any coastal flooding could
be more widespread, but mainly reaching or exceeding minor
thresholds. Local Moderate flooding is possible however.
As such, additional statements, or advisories may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...pw
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. While, Sunday
will feature a soaking rainfall along with chances for thunderstorms
as a low pressure system approaches and moves into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT...A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly
push southeastward across the southern portion of the fa. As the
front continues to slowly sag south and east, clearing will occur
behind the boundary. The front will gradually stall out in the
far southern parts of the CWA by later tonight.
Ridging will build in overnight at the surface and aloft. Cloud
cover will decrease and some patchy fog should form, although
clouds may continue to linger close to the boundary for the late
night hours for far southern areas. Expecting lows to drop into
the 50s with some 40s across the higher terrain of the western
Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will be the much nicer day of the weekend with dry
weather and warm temperatures as the upper ridge crests overhead.
Higher level clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon
especially later in the day in advance of an approaching low
pressure system. Forecasting high temperatures mainly ranging from
the mid 70s to mid 80s with the warmest readings up the Hudson
Valley and across northwestern Connecticut.
Clouds will be on the increase thickening and lowering Saturday
night as the ridge weakens and shifts off to the east and a warm
front approaches from the southwest. Isentropic forcing will
result in showers overspreading the area especially after midnight.
The warm front is not expected to lift north into or through the
local area. The system is expected to occluded Sunday afternoon
into the night as the upper trough becomes negatively titled. The
rainfall is expected to be moderate to possibly heavy at times as
precipitable water values rise to 1.5 to almost 2 inches Sunday.
The bulk of the QPF will occur Sunday afternoon and evening. Total
rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2 inches are forecast with locally
higher amounts around 3 inches possible. Showalter values are
forecast to lower to 0 to -2C indicating elevated instability will
be present so have chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening ahead of the occluding boundaries. Pops will decrease
Sunday night as the occluded boundary moves off to the area.
Sunday will be much cooler with highs only in the mid 60s to mid
70s due the extensive cloud cover and showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the extended period will be dominated by an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast, which will keep the
weather unsettled at times, with temperatures a little cooler than
recent days.
At the start of the period, a closed off upper level low will be
rotating from near the Great Lakes on Monday towards Quebec on
Tuesday. Although there will be clouds to start the day on Monday,
there should be some breaks of sun by Monday afternoon. Cannot rule
out some showers on Monday due to the cyclonic flow, but most areas
look to remain dry for much of Monday. Temperatures should warm well
into the 70s for most valley areas, with upper 60s over the higher
terrain.
As the upper level low moves towards Quebec, the trough axis will
move closer to the area for Tuesday. This should allow for a
greater coverage of showers on Tuesday as compared to Monday, with
slightly more clouds around. As a result of clouds/possible
showers, temps may be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday as compared to
Monday.
The upper level low will continue to sit and spin over Quebec on
Wednesday, as another fast moving shortwave rotates around backside
of the upper level low across the northern Great Lakes and heads
towards the area. This will continue to allow for some additional
showers, esp during the daytime hours thanks to diurnal heating.
Will continue to allow for a chc of showers for northern/western
areas, with slightly lower pops further south and east. Temps aloft
will be cooler, so highs will probably only reach the the 60s for
most areas.
The whole upper level trough will continue to track farther
south/east and move across northern New England by Thursday. With
the continued cyclonic flow, still cannot rule out some passing
showers from time to time, mainly for northern and high terrain
areas, although the chance should start to diminish by later in the
day as the system moves away from the area. Highs will range from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.
The upper level trough will finally move away from the area by
Friday, but still cannot go with a dry forecast, since a surface
warm front will be lifting towards the area from the southwest. Will
continue to go with a low chc for rain showers with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky. Temps should be fairly close to seasonal
normals, with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through daybreak Saturday, areas of IFR CIGS and VSBYS will be
likely, as a fairly moist air mass remains in place with little or
no wind. There could be some slight drying and improvement toward
12Z, especially at KALB. The most persistent IFR conditions
through daybreak should be at KPSF.
After daybreak Saturday, any morning low clouds/FG/BR should
dissipate, allowing for VFR conditions to return. It may take
until the mid to late morning for this to occur at KPOU, but
elsewhere the clearing should occur rather quickly. Much of the
day will just feature sct diurnal cu with some sct-bkn high level
clouds in place.
High clouds will gradually thicken Saturday evening.
Winds through daybreak should be light/variable at less than 4 KT.
On Saturday, winds should become NW to N at 4-8 KT. Winds will
become light/variable once again toward sunset Saturday, and
continue into Saturday evening.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front moving across the region will stall to our
south across the mid Atlantic region tonight. Saturday will be dry
with warm temperatures as high pressure builds in. Minimum
relative humidity levels are expected to be around 40 percent in
the afternoon. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Saturday will be dry with warm temperatures as high pressure
builds in. Sunday will feature a soaking rainfall along with
chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system approaches and
moves into the region. The rainfall is expected to be moderate to
possibly heavy at times as precipitable water values rise to 1.5
to almost 2 inches Sunday. The bulk of the qpf will occur Sunday
afternoon and evening with total rainfall amounts of 1 1/2 to 2
inches are forecast with locally higher amounts around 3 inches
possible. Widespread flooding is not expected however substantial
within bank rises will occur.
Precipitation departures from normal since January 1st through
June 2nd...
Albany NY: -4.28 inches
Glens Falls NY: -3.10 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -5.65 inches
Bennington VT: -2.30 inches
Pittsfield MA: -3.28 inches
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7pm update...
Skies are showing signs of clearing but two areas of stratus are
moving into the area, one from the SW, the other from offshore SE
of MA. These two will attempt to fill in again tonight but may not
be as successful as previous nights mainly due to less advective
wind (mainly light and variable tonight). Still some fog/low
clouds can be expected, maintaining another somewhat mild
overnight. Slight adjustments made as the forecast appears on
track at this time.
Previous discussion...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
Overview and model preferences...
Deepening and gradually occluding system S of James Bay will
define the weather for much of early next week. 03.12Z model
guidance is settling on a solution for this feature which is
lending to higher confidence in day-to-day sensible wx details.
The initial reaction will be an area of widespread and possibly
heavy rainfall Sun as the trof prepares to cutoff taking on a
negative tilt. The second will be the from the destabilized nature
of the cutoff itself as it slowly meanders into QC, with a series
of shortwaves rotating around it. A blend of deterministic
guidance can still be used for much of the week, but ensembles
better support the slow transition away from the cutoff late in
the week.
Details...
Sun and Sun night...
Rain, heavy at times is the short definition for this Sunday.
Overruning precip event in advance of occluding low pres. Strong
isentropic lift implied by low-mid lvl veering profiles. Moisture
not lacking, as PWATs approach 2 inches (or nearly 2 std
deviations above normal) and K-values exceed 30. This is in part
thanks to another tropical moisture plume from the slowly eastward
progressing Bonnie. Therefore, will likely see pockets of heavier
rainfall through the afternoon and evening when lift peaks.
Widespread QPF values around 1.00 inches with locally heavier
amounts can be expected. Flooding risk mainly relegated to the
urban/small stream environments as main-stem rivers and streams
continue to run low. Will need to monitor for typical urban
flooding issues. Convective risk will be mainly S, where higher
sfc based CAPE, and warm sector moves through, coincident with
latest SPC DAY 3 Enhanced Risk. Srn New England never quite gets
into the warm sector, so any thunder would be widely scattered and
based on upper lvl instability as TT values approach 50. Still
something to watch as this may enhance the localized urban flood
risk. Rain tapers overnight and early Mon morning as occlusion
shifts N of the region.
Mon and Mon night...
Dry slot associated with slowly meandering cutoff and occlusion,
combined with w-nw cold advection will likely keep Mon mainly dry
in spite of cloud cover. Only NW reaches have best chance for
precip driven by upslope enhancement. Otherwise, breezy, with
temps at H85 near +12C temps could make a run into the low 80s,
but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover ultimately
observed.
Tue and Tue night...
Secondary cold front sweeps across New England exposing the cold
pool aloft. Plenty of lift, modest moisture with PWATs about 1.50+
inches, so widespread showers look likely. The one issue to
monitor is the convective potential. Shear is present, nearly 40
Kt 0-6KM, however the mitigating factor is the relatively low
instability. Sfc based CAPE generally below 1000j/kg. Even though
this synoptic setup is a typical one for New England SVR, this low
CAPE high shear environment makes it difficult to formulate an
outcome this far out. For now, will mention the risk. Temps near
to slightly above seasonal normals as the core of coldest air
holds until later in the week.
Wed and Wed night...
Cold pool settles aloft and thanks to continued cyclonic flow,
diurnally driven shra are possible. H5 temps near -18 to -20C
could support some t-storm development and a risk for graupel or
small hail with any shra/storms. This cold pool also suggests
cooler highs, mainly in the low-mid 70s rather than 80s
experienced earlier in the week.
Thu and Fri...
Ridging finally looks to attempt a shift, moving the core of the
cutoff to the E and allowing for anticyclonic flow aloft and a
building sfc high pres. Temps still near normal to seasonally cool
with the influence of the cold pool just to the NE. Models
indicating potential remnant ridge-rolling MCS, but this could
also be a convective feedback issue this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
VFR to start most places but gradual reduction to MVFR/IFR after
03Z especially Cape/Islands and SE MA. Inland, some ground fog
possible especially if some clearing is observed during the early
morning hours. Winds become light and variable.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun and Sun night...Moderate confidence.
Mix of MVFR/IFR with rain/fog most of Sun and Sun night with low
pres moving west of the region.
Mon...Moderate confidence.
VFR after early rains end, some lower cigs possible, but risk for
rain diminishes, breezy W-NW winds.
Tue and Wed...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR although afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sun night into Mon night...Moderate Confidence.
Deepening low pres will stay well NW of the waters with a front
moving through Sun night. Winds from S-SW Sun to to the W on Mon.
Gusts around 25 kt are possible late Sun and again Mon afternoon.
Seas in the meantime build, peaking Mon morning 5-8 ft and
diminishing thereafter. A period of small craft advisories may be
needed. Rain/fog lead to vsby restrictions especially Sun and Sun
night.
Tue and Wed...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather expected outside of a shower or
leftover T-storms.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E Coast tides build through the weekend, peaking with a 12.2 ft
tide at Boston around 1230 Monday morning. Easterly flow is
possible both Fri and late Sun night, which occlude lead to a
enhanced risk for localized splashover.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Frank/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary enters the region tonight and washes out
over the area into Saturday while weak high pressure sets up just
offshore. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Sunday
moves into eastern Canada Monday, bring a warm front through
Sunday morning and a cold front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The low will remain to the north for the start of the new
week, and then high pressure will build east for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient CAPE and a weak shortwave moving in, there will be
the chance of showers/tstms NW of the city this evening. Then the
lift weakens while the atmosphere becomes more stable, so will go
with a dry forecast for the overnight hours. Onshore flow will help
keep it mostly cloudy through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a mostly cloudy start, turning partly sunny for Saturday
afternoon with weak high pressure over the area. A shortwave
pushes in from the west during the afternoon, and with building
CAPE, there is a chance of showers and tstms over roughly the
western half of the CWA. Will go with lower-end chc to slight chc
pops since it seems that moisture will be fairly shallow. Used
superblend for high temps.
A warm front associated with low pressure to the west then begins to
approach from the SW Saturday night. Isentropic lift increases
over our area ahead of the front. In addition...a shortwave is
progged to approach and enter the vicinity of the NW zones. Also,
a theta-e ridge builds in and PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.00
inches. This combination of lift and moisture will increase rain
chances through the night, with rain likely for at least roughly
the NW half of the cwa by the end of the night. There could be a
thunderstorm, but probably isolated in nature, and more likely to
occur over the western half of the cwa where lift and CAPE will be
greater. Some heavy downpours are possible during the overnight
hours, but with the flow aloft increasing, storms should at least
not be very slow-moving.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper shortwave is becoming negatively tilted Sunday morning
through the upper midwest and Ohio valley. The trough moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic states and closes off Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. At the surface a frontal system will be moving
through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Sunday morning a
warm front moves through the region and the area will be in the
warm sector through the day, and a weak thermal ridge develops.
Even with the possibility of on going showers Sunday, daytime
heating will be enough for destabilization to occur as low level
lapse rates increase, and low level moisture also increases. Most
unstable CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon. Strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and into the evening as the upper trough moves into the
region and wind shear and lift increase, with the strongest storms
in the Lower Hudson Valley into Northeastern New Jersey. The main
threat will be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail is also possible. With the loss of heating and the upper
trough closing off and flattening the treat of strong
thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening and overnight.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure will give way to a dissipating cold front
approaching from the west this afternoon.
Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to start, but with
abundant moisture all terminals should return to IFR tonight as the
flow weakens. In the meantime, there is still some time for
improvement to MVFR as the batch of showers over Long Island
continues to move off to the east. Farther west, showers developing
ahead of the approaching cold front may impact KSWF prior to
00Z.
S/SE flow under 10 kt will continue into the evening before
becoming light overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 15Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of
the city.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through Saturday night
outside of any possible thunderstorms.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southeast flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels. Small craft seas likely linger into
Tuesday as a strong northwest flow prevails behind the cold front.
Finally, occasional gusts, mainly on the ocean waters,may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall into this evening is probably under a tenth of
an inch. No widespread significant rainfall is expected on
Saturday.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to an
upcoming new moon Sunday evening. Tides are actually high enough
to put some areas along the Long Island south shore back bays into
minor flood starting with tonight`s high tide cycle. Only about
1/2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding across the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens where a statement has been
issued for this evening. Expecting localized minor flooding here.
Tides will continue to run high enough to put some areas along
the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with the
high tide cycles Saturday night and Sunday night. Tidal
departures of 1/4 to 1/2 foot would also put some areas along
western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into minor flood
during the higher of the two daily tides, mainly Sunday night.
Background anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain
so through the weekend, so additional statements, or advisories
may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
- Cooler, unsettled weather pattern possible for rest of early June
*/ DISCUSSION...
An unsettled, cooler weather pattern advertised over New England per
averaged 1 to 2 week forecasts for early June via Climate Prediction
Center. Interrogating the bigger picture, low pressure maintains
over the N Pacific E of which progressive flow allows Pacific-origin
energy to waffle the EPO/PNA pattern with either ridging or cyclo-
genesis over the W CONUS mainly across the N / Canadian Rockies.
With Icelandic / Greenland ridging parent with a N Atlantic cutoff
low likely contributing to a -NAO/-AO pattern, E progressing storms
are slowed across Eastern N America creating a favorable environment
for mature storms to undergo maturation into occlusion. An ensemble
forecast evaluation shows that within such an environment H5 heights
are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal while H85 temperatures
are considerably below average beginning Sunday into early next week
which are discussed in detail below.
So to begin, a soaker Sunday into Sunday night. Widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms given a number of
convective indices just around their respective thresholds. An over-
running setup of S/SW flow of Gulf moisture (precipitable waters +2
standard deviations and within the 99th percentile of climatology)
undergoing isentropic ascent NE parent with a lifting warm front and
mid level vortex energy. Focus on convergent H925-85 flow beneath
favorable diffluence aloft more so in areas of with any instability
likely elevated. A challenge to nail down exactly where but thinking
that perhaps the 03.0z NAM may have the right idea with a secondary
low along the coast given the anomalous setup. Aside, the take-away
is that there will be a good slug of rain with rainfall amounts
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, locally higher around 1.50 inches.
Strong signal of such outcomes per ensemble means and probabalistics
for +1 inch. Maybe some nuisance poor-drainage flooding but honestly
feel the region should handle it with rainfall occurring over a
longer period of time. Otherwise, cool E/SE onshore flow ahead of
the warm front with deeper moisture aloft, likely some low cloud and
mist / fog issues throughout the period. Another challenge is when
the warm front will lift N. Possibly late Sunday into Sunday night
making for a non-diurnal temperature trend into Monday as flow
reverts S.
For Monday through Wednesday, contending with the occluded, stacked
low N and W over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Monday looks to
remain dry beneath the dry slot entraining into the system. But over
time the cold pool and cyclonic flow wobble S/E. With any mid-level
vortex energy rotating through the S periphery of the low combined
with diurnal heating, there is the chance for shower / thunderstorm
activity. Limited instability within a highly sheared environment
given poor environmental lapse rates, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a convective threat as originally thought, but will still
keep it in mind. Chance PoPs with higher confidence N/W closer to
the low. Temperatures closer to average.
End of the week, will keep Thursday dry. Thereafter a fair amount of
model forecast variability lending to low confidence. An ensemble
forecast approach has pacific-origin energy from the W potentially
interacting / phasing with energy drawn S out of the Arctic. It is
perhaps that the overall trend is for continued troughing across the
NE CONUS lending to a cooler, unsettled weather pattern as the
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
Though 00z this evening...Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR CIGS
should gradually improve to mainly VFR, except for portions of the
immediate south coast, Cape and Islands where lower CIGS may
persist. A few showers with the low risk of an isolated t-storm
across western MA through early this evening.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR away from the south coast
this evening, but low end MVFR-IFR with even some LIFR conditions
should develop in low clouds and areas of fog. Exact timing
uncertain.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, possible +RA with a lesser risk of
TSRA. Winds turning S and increasing with the potential for gusts
around 25 kts late Sunday evening, gradually backing S/SW overnight.
Potentially improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, dissipating into evening and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...
Increasing E/SE flow overnight with higher confidence of marine
stratus along with mist / drizzle / fog conditions developing.
Threat of visibility impacts down a mile or two. Waves below 5 feet.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, potentially heavy at times and possibly with some
embedded thunder. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind
which winds back out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 25 kts
throughout the period. Small craft advisories under consideration
along with waves on the outer waters building 5 to 6 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Feel conditions will be mainly dry with the primary threat being SW
winds gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters.
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
of 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1208 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
The upper level trough digging southeast across the upper midwest
will phase with the upper low across eastern TX and move into the
MS river valley Tonight.
At 230 AM a line of showers and thunderstorms extended from north of
Emporia, east to Ottawa, then northeast into the southern suburbs of
Kansas City. An outflow boundary continued out of ahead of this line
of showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will
move Southeast of the CWA by 5 AM. The weak surface cold front will
move southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours of Saturday.
Any morning cloudiness across the southeast counties will shift
southeast of the CWA by mid morning. Scattered CU will redevelop
during the afternoon hours across northeast KS as lapse rates may be
steep enough along the western periphery of the departing H5 trough.
At this time any isolated showers and thunderstorms should develop
across eastern NE, western IA and northwest MO.
northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 25 to 30
MPH during the late morning and through the afternoon hours. Highs
Today will reach the lower 80s across much of the CWA.
Tonight skies will be clear with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
Into Sunday, northwest flow regime aloft becomes established and
with modified Canadian air in place allowing for dry conditions over
the region. Meanwhile a strong ridge continues to build over the
Western CONUS with impressive heights entrenched in place.
Conditions will be calm and pleasant over northeast Kansas. Dry
pattern ahead remains on track for the most part. A backdoor cold
front may arrive late Monday night as a vort lobe rotates around the
backside of a low pressure system spinning over the Northeastern
Great Lakes region. But conditions should remain dry as moisture is
still yet to return from the south and also weak forcing in place.
This will temporarily keep temps in check as the upper level ridge
shifts East but still expecting a gradual increase in temps, albeit
a bit cooler over extreme northeastern sections of Kansas due to the
boundary in place. An expansive surface high pressure area will
slide to the east and southeast of the forecast area and help
develop a return flow regime. Temps will increase along with
moisture therefore making it feel rather warm as the week
progresses. Could see readings into the low 90s over portions of
the area but no headlines for heat at this time being considered.
Weak isentropic upglide sets up with enhanced WAA ahead of some weak
shortwaves moving through the longwave ridge. Not expecting much
more than some morning showers and weak storms at this point. Have
a couple areas of POPs mainly over northwestern portions of the
forecast area to account for this. However, ability to resolve
specific areas this far out in this pattern is a bit hard to have
too much confidence in. As the ridge is slowly broken down toward
next weekend, the upper level pattern shifts to a more quasi-zonal
flow set up and another North Pac Low could make its way into the
Northern Plains and possibly bringing storms back into the pattern
as a frontal feature may get pushed down into the Central Plains.
Again, too far out to have much more thought than something more
interesting to consider with slower weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Sanders
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
552 AM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2016
The weekend remains dry with warming temperatures as the high
amplitude upper ridge remains in place over the western United
States and an area of high pressure at the surface drops south
through the central high plains region on it`s way to the southern
plains by late Sunday. The low pressure center moving onshore
today begins moving through the upper ridge on Sunday and stalls
out over Intermountain region on Monday. This low ejects a couple
poorly defined short wave troughs east of the Rockies on Monday
and Monday night. This will assist in the development of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms that are expected to develop in the
vicinity of a weak frontal boundary that moving into the forecast
area on the leading edge of another surface high pressure area
dropping southward through the high plains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Long term begins with ridging to the west of the CWA on Tuesday that
will gradually build eastward as we head through next week. A weak
shortwave will quickly move across the region on Tuesday before the
ridge is in place, giving us slgt chc to chc PoPs mainly during the
afternoon during peak instability and heating. Thunderstorm chances
diminish as we head into Wednesday however there may be an isolated
storm or two during the afternoon.
The ridge will be firmly in place over the High Plains on Thursday and
Friday. Global guidance develops several weak shortwaves that push
across the CWA during this time. Since the ridge will be the
dominant feature, I do not expect thunderstorm development at this
time however an isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled
out in the eastern portions of the CWA. High pressure will
continue eastward as we head into Saturday. I have very low
confidence in the guidance at this point due to very different
scenarios given by the GFS and ECMWF. GFS suggests zonal flow
developing across the western states and into the plains whereas
the ECMWF develops a deep low over western Canada that will extend
a trough southward all the way through southern California.
Superblend is going for slgt chc PoPs on Saturday as either
scenario will lead to better rain chances going forward.
Temperatures will warm significantly under the ridge as it builds in
Wednesday through Friday. Currently the consensus is for daytime
highs that reach into the lower to middle 90s; however, we may need
to increase this slightly as this has been the trend. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Relative humidity will fall
into the 20 to 30 percent range during the day Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2016
VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty out of the north between 17z-01z before
decreasing again during the evening and overnight hours.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
An upper level trough passing into the Midwest has pushed a cold
front into southwestern Kansas early this morning. Surface high
pressure will gradually build into western Kansas through Sunday
morning. An upper level ridge will develop over the Rockies
through Monday and then gradually shift eastward by mid to late
next week. A couple of weak upper level disturbance will move
through the upper level ridge and approach the plains by late
Wednesday and then again by Sunday. Surface troughing will develop
over the plains by Tuesday and then persist through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Despite the passage of a cold front, temperatures will still reach
into the lower to middle 80s today, with north winds at 10-15
kts. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny. With light winds and
fairly low dewpoints tonight, temperatures should fall into the
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Surface high pressure will be situated over western Kansas
Sunday, with not much of an airmass change from Saturday.
Therefore, expect highs in the lower to middle 80s again. Warmer
temperatures can be expected by Monday and through next week. The
first 90 degree day of the season for Dodge City may occur Monday
or possibly Tuesday. Highs in the lower to middle 90s can be
expected by Tuesday and through next week, with lows rising into
the 60s. There is only a very small chance of thunderstorms in far
western Kansas every day starting Tuesday. Low level moisture
will be one limiting factor as dewpoints will be mainly in the
50s. Surface based CAPE values will be marginal to moderate or
from 500 to 1500 j/kg each afternoon and evening. Due to the
expected high dewpoint depressions and weak upper level winds,
the main hazard with theses storms will be strong gusty winds and
small hail. Outbreaks of severe thundertorms are certainly not
expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
VFR/SKC through 12z Sunday. After 15z Sat, north winds of 10-20
kts, increasing some after 18z with gusts near 27 kts. Diminishing
north winds this evening under a continued clear sky.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 52 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 83 50 85 56 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 83 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 84 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 81 51 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 86 55 84 57 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
320 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
An upper level trough passing into the Midwest has pushed a cold
front into southwestern Kansas early this morning. Surface high
pressure will gradually build into western Kansas through Sunday
morning. An upper level ridge will develop over the Rockies
through Monday and then gradually shift eastward by mid to late
next week. A couple of weak upper level disturbance will move
through the upper level ridge and approach the plains by late
Wednesday and then again by Sunday. Surface troughing will develop
over the plains by Tuesday and then persist through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Despite the passage of a cold front, temperatures will still reach
into the lower to middle 80s today, with north winds at 10-15
kts. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny. With light winds and
fairly low dewpoints tonight, temperatures should fall into the
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Surface high pressure will be situated over western Kansas
Sunday, with not much of an airmass change from Saturday.
Therefore, expect highs in the lower to middle 80s again. Warmer
temperatures can be expected by Monday and through next week. The
first 90 degree day of the season for Dodge City may occur Monday
or possibly Tuesday. Highs in the lower to middle 90s can be
expected by Tuesday and through next week, with lows rising into
the 60s. There is only a very small chance of thunderstorms in far
western Kansas every day starting Tuesday. Low level moisture
will be one limiting factor as dewpoints will be mainly in the
50s. Surface based CAPE values will be marginal to moderate or
from 500 to 1500 j/kg each afternoon and evening. Due to the
expected high dewpoint depressions and weak upper level winds,
the main hazard with theses storms will be strong gusty winds and
small hail. Outbreaks of severe thundertorms are certainly not
expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Surface high pressure will gradually build into Colorado and
Wyoming in the wake of a cold front. Winds will increase from the
north at 15 kts with daytime heating and then become light by 00z.
VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 52 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 50 85 56 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 85 52 86 57 / 10 0 0 10
LBL 86 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 82 51 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 55 84 57 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Water vapor imagery currently shows two upper impulses. One
continuing to spin over central TX with shortwave energy tracking
over the northern Mississippi Valley. At the surface, cold front
extends from southern MN, through KS and into the OK Panhandle. A
line of storms developed along this feature and has been affecting
eastern KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
Cold front will continue to push south this morning and by 18z
should stretch from southern MO into central TX with clear skies
over the forecast area. A few of the storms will affect southeast
KS this morning but should be south by early this afternoon. Even
behind the cold front, highs today will be fairly similar to
where they were Fri but it will feel much cooler due to drier air
spilling south. Dewpoints today will be around 10 degrees cooler
than Fri. Deep upper troughing is expected to remain from the
Great Lakes into the Miss/Tenn Valley through Sun. This will keep
NW flow aloft over the Plains providing plenty of sunshine and
slightly above normal temps.
There is good model agreement that another piece of energy will
rotate around the deep upper low over the Great Lakes Mon morning
and will track across the northern Miss Valley. This will allow a
push of cooler air to work south...knocking highs down into the
low 80s for Tue.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
ECMWF and GFS agree fairly well on tracking some weak upper energy
out of the central Great Basin and central Rockies and out into
the high Plains by Thu. However, with large scale upper ridging
strengthening, this impulse is expected to weaken as it moves out
into the Plains. So not expecting much in the way of widespread
showers or storms. Confidence is high that we are looking at
increasing temps late next week with 90s expected by Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
A weak SE-movg cdfnt just reached KRSL at 05Z. There conts to be a
line of TSRA ocrg alg the front fm extreme NW MO to NE KS. The TSRA
may clip KCNU 10-12Z but lmtd coverage dictated leaving VCTS out of
the terminal for now. The SE-movg cdfnt should reach SE KS ~12Z. In
its wake Nly winds wl greatly incr w/ sustained 22kts lkly in most
areas ~18Z w/ 26-30kt gusts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 85 57 84 59 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 84 57 84 57 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 84 56 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
ElDorado 83 56 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 85 57 84 59 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 83 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 84 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 83 55 84 57 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 83 55 83 57 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 84 58 83 56 / 30 0 0 0
Chanute 84 57 83 58 / 20 0 0 0
Iola 84 57 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 84 58 83 57 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Update to forecast issued to remove mention of rw/trw in far
eastern zones. Any convection that has developed along the
boundary to our east over the past few hours...has taken a SSE
track away from the CWA. With the loss of diurnal heating coming
up with sunset...chances are lessened for any trw/rw possibilities
for eastern areas...so have removed. No other changes made at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Main issue to address is the chance of thunderstorms through early
this evening. Cold front has moved through most of the area and is
not low located over the southeast portion of our area. Satellite
and radar is showing some cumulus development in this area. Model
output, especially the hires/convective allowing models, have been
consistent in developing a line of thunderstorms in this area. So
kept the slight chance of thunderstorms in this area.
Thunderstorms should be done/moved out of the area by mid evening.
After that, winds decrease to less than 10 mph with gradually
decreasing cloud cover through the night. This will allow
overnight temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to middle 50s.
There will be plenty of sun tomorrow with northerly winds
increasing into the 15 to 25 mph during the morning. Temperatures
will be cooler, and in close agreement. So lowered tomorrows maxes
to near the consensus of this output.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Gradually warming temperatures with some chances for rain is
expected for the Tri-State area from Saturday night through Friday,
as the Tri-State area continues under northwest upper level flow
until the end of next week.
Overnight Saturday elevated instability will move over the area from
the west. The nose of the low level jet will follow this plume of
elevated instability east across the area. There is only a few
hundred joules of instability that is not capped off, so am not
anticipating anything severe developing. In addition there will be
a narrow window of opportunity for storms to develop due larger
dew point depressions in the drier air moving in with the elevated
instability. An isolated storm could form in this narrow window of
opportunity, but am not very confident so will leave the forecast
dry for now.
Sunday through Thursday there will be a few chances for rainfall
each day as a few upper level short wave troughs move over the area.
The strongest upper level short wave trough will slowly move through
Tuesday night through Wednesday night ahead of the upper level ridge
axis. There does appear to be enough instability and deep layer
shear present for some severe thunderstorms to develop, with the
best chance for severe weather being Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the period as the upper
level ridge to the west approaches and finally moves over the
area. Even though the Tri-State area will only be on the northern
edge of the ridge, temperatures are still expected to be 10
degrees above normal by mid week.
Toward the end of the work week the upper level ridge will shift
eastward, which may bring more chances for rainfall to the west half
of the area for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Conditions...VFR for both KGLD/KMCK. SCt high clouds giving way to
SKC by 15z-16z Saturday.
Precip/WX....None expected.
Winds........06z-16z Saturday...NNW 5-10kts.
16z Saturday-00z Sunday...NNW 15-25kts.
00z-06z Sunday...N around 10kts.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
This Evening:
The only reason for the update issued at 613 PM CDT was to remove
the "Late This Afternoon" period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Upper low over ern TX continues to make slow progress to the east
this afternoon. Moisture rotating around this low continues to
stream north-northwest into SE KS/NE OK. Shear axis from this upper
low and westerly flow across the rest of KS may lead to few hit or
miss diurnally driven showers and isolated storms across SE KS for
the afternoon hours where precip water values are the highest.
Already seeing some hints of this activity developing just
southeast of the forecast area in NE OK and SW MO. so will keep a
low pop in for this chance in SE KS.
Also latest visible satellite and obs show a cold front beginning to
push into northern-nw KS at this time. Latest visible satellite
shows a line a CU along this boundary just to the NW of Central KS.
CU so far is struggling along this front, with minimal boundary
layer moisture with 20 degree dewpoint spreads. Convergence isnt all
that great either, so think chances of showers and isolated storms
along this boundary as very slim for the afternoon/evening hours as
the front makes progress into Central KS. Will keep a slight pop
in,just in case any storm does develop, but think any storm that
does get going will be diurnally driven as well, with better
convective activity well NE of the area.
Expect this cold front to make slow progress across the forecast
area tonight into early on Sat. The best chance for an isolated
shower/storm, as this front pushes south, is across NE KS from KSLN
to KCNU as convergence along the front will be minimal and moisture
transport will be minimal as well.
High pressure will build into most locations for Sat thru Mon, asthe
upper flow pattern shifts to the NW as a ridge builds over the
rockies. This will lead to dry conditions and high temps near
seasonal averages for Sat/Sun with a gradual warming trend going
into the beginning of next week.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
The warming trend will continue for Tue-Thu as the upper ridge
shifts a little further to the east, with southerly flow gradually
returning to the high plains. Could see max temps climb to near 90
in Central KS on Wed and again on Thu. As the southerly flow
returns, low level moisture will also return to the high plains for
Tue and Wed which may lead to thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, and possibly propagating into Central KS either Tue night or
Wed night. Expect this convection to be diurnally driven with drier
air across most of the forecast area the further east the storms
progress. So will only go with slight pops along I-70 for this
chance both Tue/Wed nights.
Some uncertainty on the how the end of the week will play out as
medium range models differ on how they are going to handle the next
shortwave expected to move across the northern plains. GFS is a
little stronger with this shortwave which suggest a cold front
pushing into the plains by the weekend. But the ECMWF is weaker with
this system and keeps the flow more zonal, which could keep the
front across nrn KS into the weekend. For now will keep things dry
on Fri.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jun 4 2016
A weak SE-movg cdfnt just reached KRSL at 05Z. There conts to be a
line of TSRA ocrg alg the front fm extreme NW MO to NE KS. The TSRA
may clip KCNU 10-12Z but lmtd coverage dictated leaving VCTS out of
the terminal for now. The SE-movg cdfnt should reach SE KS ~12Z. In
its wake Nly winds wl greatly incr w/ sustained 22kts lkly in most
areas ~18Z w/ 26-30kt gusts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 64 85 57 83 / 10 10 0 0
Hutchinson 62 84 55 83 / 10 10 0 0
Newton 63 83 56 81 / 10 10 0 0
ElDorado 63 84 57 81 / 10 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 63 85 57 83 / 10 10 0 0
Russell 59 84 53 83 / 40 0 0 0
Great Bend 60 84 53 83 / 20 0 0 0
Salina 61 83 55 83 / 20 10 0 0
McPherson 61 83 55 82 / 10 10 0 0
Coffeyville 63 84 58 82 / 20 20 0 0
Chanute 63 84 58 81 / 20 20 0 0
Iola 63 84 58 81 / 20 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 63 84 58 81 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
703 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Update to forecast issued to remove mention of rw/trw in far
eastern zones. Any convection that has developed along the
boundary to our east over the past few hours...has taken a SSE
track away from the CWA. With the loss of diurnal heating coming
up with sunset...chances are lessened for any trw/rw possibilities
for eastern areas...so have removed. No other changes made at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Main issue to address is the chance of thunderstorms through early
this evening. Cold front has moved through most of the area and is
not low located over the southeast portion of our area. Satellite
and radar is showing some cumulus development in this area. Model
output, especially the hires/convective allowing models, have been
consistent in developing a line of thunderstorms in this area. So
kept the slight chance of thunderstorms in this area.
Thunderstorms should be done/moved out of the area by mid evening.
After that, winds decrease to less than 10 mph with gradually
decreasing cloud cover through the night. This will allow
overnight temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to middle 50s.
There will be plenty of sun tomorrow with northerly winds
increasing into the 15 to 25 mph during the morning. Temperatures
will be cooler, and in close agreement. So lowered tomorrows maxes
to near the consensus of this output.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Gradually warming temperatures with some chances for rain is
expected for the Tri-State area from Saturday night through Friday,
as the Tri-State area continues under northwest upper level flow
until the end of next week.
Overnight Saturday elevated instability will move over the area from
the west. The nose of the low level jet will follow this plume of
elevated instability east across the area. There is only a few
hundred joules of instability that is not capped off, so am not
anticipating anything severe developing. In addition there will be
a narrow window of opportunity for storms to develop due larger
dew point depressions in the drier air moving in with the elevated
instability. An isolated storm could form in this narrow window of
opportunity, but am not very confident so will leave the forecast
dry for now.
Sunday through Thursday there will be a few chances for rainfall
each day as a few upper level short wave troughs move over the area.
The strongest upper level short wave trough will slowly move through
Tuesday night through Wednesday night ahead of the upper level ridge
axis. There does appear to be enough instability and deep layer
shear present for some severe thunderstorms to develop, with the
best chance for severe weather being Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the period as the upper
level ridge to the west approaches and finally moves over the
area. Even though the Tri-State area will only be on the northern
edge of the ridge, temperatures are still expected to be 10
degrees above normal by mid week.
Toward the end of the work week the upper level ridge will shift
eastward, which may bring more chances for rainfall to the west half
of the area for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Conditions...VFR for both sites. Scattered mid/high clouds.
Precip/Wx...None expected.
Winds...For KGLD...00z-07z Saturday...N 10-15kts. Variable at
times from 03z-07z.
07z-15z Saturday...N 5-10kts.
15z Saturday onward...N 15-25kts.
For KMCK...00z-07z Saturday...N around 10kts.
07z-15z Saturday...NW around 10kts.
15z Saturday onward...NNW 15-25kts.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
This Evening:
The only reason for the update issued at 613 PM CDT was to remove
the "Late This Afternoon" period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Upper low over ern TX continues to make slow progress to the east
this afternoon. Moisture rotating around this low continues to
stream north-northwest into SE KS/NE OK. Shear axis from this upper
low and westerly flow across the rest of KS may lead to few hit or
miss diurnally driven showers and isolated storms across SE KS for
the afternoon hours where precip water values are the highest.
Already seeing some hints of this activity developing just
southeast of the forecast area in NE OK and SW MO. so will keep a
low pop in for this chance in SE KS.
Also latest visible satellite and obs show a cold front beginning to
push into northern-nw KS at this time. Latest visible satellite
shows a line a CU along this boundary just to the NW of Central KS.
CU so far is struggling along this front, with minimal boundary
layer moisture with 20 degree dewpoint spreads. Convergence isnt all
that great either, so think chances of showers and isolated storms
along this boundary as very slim for the afternoon/evening hours as
the front makes progress into Central KS. Will keep a slight pop
in,just in case any storm does develop, but think any storm that
does get going will be diurnally driven as well, with better
convective activity well NE of the area.
Expect this cold front to make slow progress across the forecast
area tonight into early on Sat. The best chance for an isolated
shower/storm, as this front pushes south, is across NE KS from KSLN
to KCNU as convergence along the front will be minimal and moisture
transport will be minimal as well.
High pressure will build into most locations for Sat thru Mon, asthe
upper flow pattern shifts to the NW as a ridge builds over the
rockies. This will lead to dry conditions and high temps near
seasonal averages for Sat/Sun with a gradual warming trend going
into the beginning of next week.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
The warming trend will continue for Tue-Thu as the upper ridge
shifts a little further to the east, with southerly flow gradually
returning to the high plains. Could see max temps climb to near 90
in Central KS on Wed and again on Thu. As the southerly flow
returns, low level moisture will also return to the high plains for
Tue and Wed which may lead to thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, and possibly propagating into Central KS either Tue night or
Wed night. Expect this convection to be diurnally driven with drier
air across most of the forecast area the further east the storms
progress. So will only go with slight pops along I-70 for this
chance both Tue/Wed nights.
Some uncertainty on the how the end of the week will play out as
medium range models differ on how they are going to handle the next
shortwave expected to move across the northern plains. GFS is a
little stronger with this shortwave which suggest a cold front
pushing into the plains by the weekend. But the ECMWF is weaker with
this system and keeps the flow more zonal, which could keep the
front across nrn KS into the weekend. For now will keep things dry
on Fri.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Two Svr TSRA are movg ESE ~25kts from NC KS. The swrn cell that is
crossing Osborne Cnty at 00Z wl impact KRSL til 02Z with 30-35kt
gusts & +RA that`ll briefly reduce vsbys to ~3SM alg with some
hail. The 2nd cell that was movg alg the Smith/Jewell Cnty line at
00Z was beginning to weaken. As such, TSRA has been assigned only
to KRSL, but KGBD is being watched closely.
The 2 Svr TSRA are ocrg alg a se-movg cdfnt that extended fm SE
Nebraska, to btwn KGCK & KDDC, to ~KDHT. The cdfnt wl cause winds
to shift to Nly w/ sustained speeds incrg to 17-22kts acrs Cntrl &
SC KS mid-late Sat Mrng w/ gusts that may apch 30kts at KRSL &
KGBD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 64 85 57 83 / 10 10 0 0
Hutchinson 62 84 55 83 / 30 10 0 0
Newton 63 83 56 81 / 20 10 0 0
ElDorado 63 84 57 81 / 20 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 63 85 57 83 / 10 10 0 0
Russell 59 84 53 83 / 20 0 0 0
Great Bend 60 84 53 83 / 20 0 0 0
Salina 61 83 55 83 / 40 10 0 0
McPherson 61 83 55 82 / 30 10 0 0
Coffeyville 63 84 58 82 / 20 20 0 0
Chanute 63 84 58 81 / 20 20 0 0
Iola 63 84 58 81 / 20 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 63 84 58 81 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
648 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
...update for radar trends...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
KDDC WSR-88D trends show that convection has really been struggling.
Visually looking out the window also indicates this as well. As a result,
have lowered pops and QPF a bit. Most of the area will some mid level
clouds, but that is about it if current trends continue to hold true.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
This evening an upper level trough, associated with the left exit
region of an 250mb jet streak, will cross central and eastern
Nebraska as a cold front drops south into northern Kansas. A
surface trough of low pressure will extend south southwest of this
cold front and stretch from north central Kansas into northeastern
New Mexico. As the upper wave crosses Nebraska late day the NAM
and GFS indicated improving 0-1km moisture convergence along the
surface cold front in north central Kansas after 21z Friday. Also
in this area the 700 to 500 mb lapse rates late day from the RAP
are forecast to be >7 C/KM and 0-6km lapse rates are forecast to
be 30 knots or less. The RAP also was indicating an inverted V
shape sounding late day. Given this if any storm does develop late
today along this surface boundary it appears that gusty winds will
be the main hazard late today...possibly some small hail near and
north of the I-70 corridor. The main limiting factor for late
afternoon thunderstorms will be the warm mid level temperatures.
The 700mb temperature along the surface trough and cold front
currently is forecast to be around 9C at 21z Friday. Using this as
a guide for surface based convection potential there will be a
slight chance for a few storms late today and early this evening
across portions of west central and north central Kansas. Initial
thoughts early this afternoon given where the cu was developing as
of 2 pm along the cold front and the RAP location of the cooler
700mb temperatures between 21z Friday and 00z Saturday will
continue keep a mention of scattered thunderstorms going for
locations near and north of Dodge City.
This cold front will cross southwest Kansas overnight and by
early Saturday morning this cold front is forecast to be located
in the panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma. Behind this front a gusty
north wind of 10 to 20 mph can be expected during the day on
Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler based on
the minor cooling trend, mainly in north and northwestern Kansas,
in the 850mb temperatures from 00z Saturday to 00z Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
A surface ridge axis will begin to build into the Central Plains
Saturday night and Sunday as a northwest flow develops in the
700mb and 500mb levels. Sunday will be highs Sunday afternoon
similar to those expected on Saturday.
On Monday the surface ridge axis will slide to our southeast as
the northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains continues.
A surface boundary/cold front will drop south into Nebraska as an
upper level trough exits Canada and crosses the Northern
Mississippi Valley. South of this front the 850mb temperatures
from the GFS and ECMWF both indicate at +5C warm up across western
Kansas from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday. This should easily allow
afternoon temperatures to climb to near 90 across much of western
Kansas. 700mb temperatures will also be warming early next week
with 00z Tuesday 700mb temperatures forecast by the GFS across
western Kansas to range from 8C near Hays to +12c along the
Colorado border. Will have to see if we are able to overcome these
warm mid level temperatures but if we do there will be a chance
for some scattered thunderstorms Monday night.
A warming trend will continue through mid week as the upper ridge
axis slides east across the Rockies towards the Central and
Northern Plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF do indicate that an
embedded upper level trough will move through this upper ridge
axis late Tuesday and as it moves across western Kansas Tuesday
night there will be another chance for thunderstorms, especially
along and east of the 700mb baroclinic zone. Highs by mid week
should easily range from 90 to 95 degrees.
Despite several upper waves being forecast to cross the Central
Plains between Wednesday and Friday it currently appears that the
chance for precipitation will be low late next week as 700mb
temperatures warm to around 15C over western Kansas. Do agree with
the previous shift that highs in the 95 to around 100 degree range
are looking more and more likely for late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Based off recent radar trends, it appears that the chance of convection
impacting the terminals is rather low. Will continue to monitor and
amend if needed. Otherwise, a cold front will continue to move across
the region tonight. Winds will eventually become N/NW by early morning
and increase 10-20 kt after 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 83 54 83 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 56 83 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 60 83 55 85 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 60 84 53 85 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 57 82 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
P28 61 86 56 85 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden