Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/03/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
737 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Only a couple of short lived showers formed today. With the loss
of daytime heating, do not expect anymore additional showers to
form. Upper level moisture will remain overhead tonight keeping
skies partly cloudy. Other than lining up to current trends, do
not expect any other changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest
will result in warm and dry weather across north central and
northeastern Colorado over the next couple of days. Models are
showing a weak...dry cool front moving across northeastern
Colorado around noon on Friday. The only effect this front will
have on the area may be a very slight decrease in daytime high
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
The upper level ridge to the west will build over the region
Friday night and Saturday. A moderate northwesterly flow aloft
will be over the cwa Friday night with a weak disturbance passing
to the north and east of Colorado. A weak front will push into
the cwa late Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly cooler than Friday...but increasing
subsidence associated with the building ridge should negate
thunderstorms over the northeast plains. The mdls keep the best
instability in the mountains and foothills southwest of Denver as
well as South Park. On Sunday...temperatures will warm up again
with the best chance of thunderstorms continuing over the higher
terrain in the late afternoon and evening. Monday and Monday
night...the ridge aloft will remain over Colorado with a weak
northwesterly flow aloft over the cwa. The best chance of
thunderstorms will remain to the west and south of Denver. The
northeast plains remain too capped for the most part to produce
thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. Tuesday into Wednesday...
the subsidence associated with the ridge will weaken as a weak
upper trough over central Nevada around 18z Monday breaks down the
ridge and moves across the state. This system is weak and
disorganized but will be sufficient to produce a better chance of
thunderstorms over much of the cwa. Drier weather may return by
Thursday as the trough shifts to the east and an upper level ridge
builds back over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 737 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions will prevail tonight with high clouds streaming
over the state. Normal drainage winds will prevail tonight.
Northerly winds are expected Friday after the passage of a weak
cold front. No thunderstorm activity is expected for Friday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Kalina
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
200 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest
will result in warm and dry weather across north central and
northeastern Colorado over the next couple of days. Models are
showing a weak...dry cool front moving across northeastern
Colorado around noon on Friday. The only effect this front will
have on the area may be a very slight decrease in daytime high
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
The upper level ridge to the west will build over the region
Friday night and Saturday. A moderate northwesterly flow aloft
will be over the cwa Friday night with a weak disturbance passing
to the north and east of Colorado. A weak front will push into
the cwa late Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly cooler than Friday...but increasing
subsidence associated with the building ridge should negate
thunderstorms over the northeast plains. The mdls keep the best
instability in the mountains and foothills southwest of Denver as
well as South Park. On Sunday...temperatures will warm up again
with the best chance of thunderstorms continuing over the higher
terrain in the late afternoon and evening. Monday and Monday
night...the ridge aloft will remain over Colorado with a weak
northwesterly flow aloft over the cwa. The best chance of
thunderstorms will remain to the west and south of Denver. The
northeast plains remain too capped for the most part to produce
thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. Tuesday into Wednesday...
the subsidence associated with the ridge will weaken as a weak
upper trough over central Nevada around 18z Monday breaks down the
ridge and moves across the state. This system is weak and
disorganized but will be sufficient to produce a better chance of
thunderstorms over much of the cwa. Drier weather may return by
Thursday as the trough shifts to the east and an upper level ridge
builds back over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal winds are
expected overnight...with winds turning northerly by 18z...behind
a weak cool front.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kalina
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kalina
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A blocky mid latitude weather pattern is setting up with high
pressure over the western Atlantic complimenting a building ridge
across the Intermountain West to end this week. Can`t rule out a
stray thunderstorm over the southern high terrain with an ill
defined wave dropping southward across this region at peak
heating. Soundings suggest the only moisture around is atop the
EML so high based storms with more wind than rain is expected.
Warming temperatures aloft begin to decrease the instability and
it will be harder for any storms to develop going into Friday.
Highs will be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the next few
afternoons.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest through the
weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region. Above
normal temperatures will persist through at least early next week.
Moisture tap on Sunday which we had been talking about is less
defined, but there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the continental divide beginning Saturday late afternoon if
enough moisture does become available. General southwest flow will
increase on Monday, allowing for even warmer temperatures before
the gradient eases on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions and diurnally induced wind changes will prevail
over the next 24 hours.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Rising maximum and minimum temperatures will lead to an increase
in snowmelt from the high mountains over the next few days.
Stream and river flows are expected to significantly rise by
this weekend. Use caution if recreating on or near rivers as
conditions change over the next week.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
432 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
...Starting to warm and dry...
First off, some light fog and low clouds over parts of El Paso
County this morning. Nothing too widespread in the metro area
itself but more so over northern and far eastern parts of the
county. This should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise.
Upper high pressure will start to build over Colorado today. This
will warm and dry the atmosphere. There will still be some
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around, mainly in a
near the mountains, but they will tend to be more isolated and less
intense than in previous days. Primary storm threats today will be
lightning and gusty winds. There could also be a locally heavy
rainer out there, especially over the southern mountain areas along
and west of the southern I-25 corridor. Showers and storms should
dissipate pretty quickly after sunset with clearing skies and near
seasonal temperatures for the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
An upper ridge over the Western US will be the prominent
feature for weather across Colorado into next week.
Friday...The upper ridge will be firmly in place over the Western
US...keeping the area warm and mostly dry. There will be a very
isolated shot of some afternoon and eve convection over the highest
peaks, but the remainder of the forecast area should remain dry.
Look for max temps in the 80s, and up to around 90 F for the e
plains.
Saturday and Sunday...An upper shortwave will cross Montana and the
Dakotas on Fri, pushing a cool surge of moist air down into CO late
Fri through early Sat. This northerly push will then become more
easterly through Sun, providing for increased pcpn chances across
the higher terrain and eastern plains both days. Increased cloud
cover and easterly llvl flow will help to cool temps somewhat,
though max temps should still climb to seasonal norms in the mid 70s
to lower 80s for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys.
Monday through Wednesday...The upper ridge starts to weaken as the
ridge axis shifts to the east, from the West Coast to the Great
Basin. However, models are disagreeing on the look of this
development, with the EC maintaining a diurnal mt convection pattern
and the GFS being much more generous with pops and QPF. For now will
try to split the difference in convection timing, and start the
upward climb for temps once again. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A little light fog and low clouds across El Paso County this
morning, including KCOS. This will continue through the overnight
hours and then dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Otherwise,
generally VFR across flight area over the next 24 hours as upper
high pressure builds in over the region. There will still be some
afternoon and evening thunderstorms in and near the mountains but
storms will tend to be less widespread and less intense than in
previous days. The primary window for storms will be 18Z to 03Z.
The primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts to around
40 mph. KCOS and KALS could see VCTS as afternoon and evening
storms try and roll off the mountains. KPUB will likely be too far
east for VCTS today.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east,
weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning.
Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer
moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some
cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited.
A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a
ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures
will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high
temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming
aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a
low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front
Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There
may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing
short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a
dry and more summerlike day can be expected.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area
as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes
down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a
cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the
airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than
today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area,
while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly
drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast
soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over
the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few
showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of
cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south
on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains
should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not
warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the
airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface
pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer
temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal
convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains.
Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over
California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy
stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog
possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z.
Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should
be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal
and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or
less.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...
Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.
Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.
Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.
Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.
On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average.
Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
Surface obs show high pressure building into northern KS and a
diffuse frontal boundary somewhere across east central KS. An area of
low pressure was noted over the northern plains where a closed upper
low was spinning. Water vapor also indicated an upper low over the
southwest.
With this split flow over the central plains and a general lack of
organized forcing, think the surface ridging will be the main factor
in the forecast for today and tonight. Most model guidance suggests
the poorly defined front at the surface and 850MB should set up just
south of the forecast area with the deeper moisture axis over
southern KS and southern MO. Models show any low level convergence
along the boundary to remain south of the forecast area. Therefore
with no forcing think chances for precip are about 10 percent over
Coffey and Anderson counties and have removed the mention of precip
from the forecast. By this afternoon and evening, continued dry air
advection should continue to push the higher probabilities for
precip south. So dry weather is expected today and tonight.
Have trended highs a little warmer as the RAP and NAM forecast
soundings show the boundary layer mixing to around 800MB. 850MB
temps around 14C would support highs in the mid 70s but think
reasonable insolation should bump temps up a little more so the
forecast has highs around 80. The weak surface ridge of high
pressure is progged to move across the forecast area tonight. This
should allow for some radiational cooling due to the light winds and
mostly clear skies. With this in mind, lows are forecast to be in
the middle and upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
Most of the mid range and extended forecast period will be
characterized by weak flow aloft therefore seeing little in the way
of lift to cause too much change in the weather pattern. So, have
kept with a mostly dry pattern regarding POPs. Focus period for any
slight chance for light showers and perhaps a few claps of thunder
will be late Friday and early Saturday morning. Trimmed back POPs a
bit south of I-70 mainly as the North Pac Low shoots in over the
Northern Plains and deepens as a speed max dives toward the Upper MS
Valley. As the upper low deepens, the associated trough looks like
it will have enough energy to develop a surface cool boundary that
will get pushed along and into northeastern KS. Much like the recent
cool boundary that created mostly clouds rather than precip over the
forecast area, do expect that weak forcing with this system over the
forecast area will result in much the same. It does appear that all
guidance hints at this possibility as the signal is to decrease QPF.
Feel comfortable in the reduction of POPs over northeast KS at this
time since this seems to have been a continuous trend from previous
model runs. The trend with the low over the southwest CONUS is to
eventually become an open wave over South TX vicinity.
From this point into the weekend, expect that heights gradually rise
over the forecast area and weak flow aloft continues with perhaps
northern stream flow remaining north of the forecast area for at
least a while looking forward. Any shortwaves trying to break down
the ridging over the area appear to be short lived. No consistency
on changes at this time, so have left a dry forecast. Expect temps
to generally rise steadily into the mid to potentially upper 80s by
middle of next week. Meanwhile, lows will rise into the mid 60s.
Judging by the normal values, this puts both highs and lows near the
5-10 degree above normal range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
Dryer air moving in and a general lack of forcing should lead to
VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
332 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
Surface obs show high pressure building into northern KS and a
diffuse frontal boundary somewhere across east central KS. An area of
low pressure was noted over the northern plains where a closed upper
low was spinning. Water vapor also indicated an upper low over the
southwest.
With this split flow over the central plains and a general lack of
organized forcing, think the surface ridging will be the main factor
in the forecast for today and tonight. Most model guidance suggests
the poorly defined front at the surface and 850MB should set up just
south of the forecast area with the deeper moisture axis over
southern KS and southern MO. Models show any low level convergence
along the boundary to remain south of the forecast area. Therefore
with no forcing think chances for precip are about 10 percent over
Coffey and Anderson counties and have removed the mention of precip
from the forecast. By this afternoon and evening, continued dry air
advection should continue to push the higher probabilities for
precip south. So dry weather is expected today and tonight.
Have trended highs a little warmer as the RAP and NAM forecast
soundings show the boundary layer mixing to around 800MB. 850MB
temps around 14C would support highs in the mid 70s but think
reasonable insolation should bump temps up a little more so the
forecast has highs around 80. The weak surface ridge of high
pressure is progged to move across the forecast area tonight. This
should allow for some radiational cooling due to the light winds and
mostly clear skies. With this in mind, lows are forecast to be in
the middle and upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
Most of the mid range and extended forecast period will be
characterized by weak flow aloft therefore seeing little in the way
of lift to cause too much change in the weather pattern. So, have
kept with a mostly dry pattern regarding POPs. Focus period for any
slight chance for light showers and perhaps a few claps of thunder
will be late Friday and early Saturday morning. Trimmed back POPs a
bit south of I-70 mainly as the North Pac Low shoots in over the
Northern Plains and deepens as a speed max dives toward the Upper MS
Valley. As the upper low deepens, the associated trough looks like
it will have enough energy to develop a surface cool boundary that
will get pushed along and into northeastern KS. Much like the recent
cool boundary that created mostly clouds rather than precip over the
forecast area, do expect that weak forcing with this system over the
forecast area will result in much the same. It does appear that all
guidance hints at this possibility as the signal is to decrease QPF.
Feel comfortable in the reduction of POPs over northeast KS at this
time since this seems to have been a continuous trend from previous
model runs. The trend with the low over the southwest CONUS is to
eventually become an open wave over South TX vicinity.
From this point into the weekend, expect that heights gradually rise
over the forecast area and weak flow aloft continues with perhaps
northern stream flow remaining north of the forecast area for at
least a while looking forward. Any shortwaves trying to break down
the ridging over the area appear to be short lived. No consistency
on changes at this time, so have left a dry forecast. Expect temps
to generally rise steadily into the mid to potentially upper 80s by
middle of next week. Meanwhile, lows will rise into the mid 60s.
Judging by the normal values, this puts both highs and lows near the
5-10 degree above normal range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
VFR conditions expected. North winds are increasing on both
observations and models in the lower levels. Along with a likely
steady flow of at least some cirrus, will remove BR mention.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
513 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Numerous showers over eastern PA in association with a mid level
vort max, some additional lift in the RR quad of an upper jet, and
weak/shallow elevated instability, will translate east across the
western half of the CWA mainly from 11Z-17Z, then weaken across
Long Island and CT from about 17Z-20Z. Based on latest obs and
HRRR fcst may have to trim back on precip chances east of NYC
early this AM, then for NYC metro mid to late afternoon.
Rain, cloud cover, and onshore flow of maritime air will make
today relatively cool, with high temps mostly in the lower an mid
70s. Fcst temps might be too warm across Long Island and coastal
SE CT which may not rise out of the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area early this morning will
give way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west.
This will result in a continued moist E/SE flow with widespread
MVFR and possibly IFR conditions.
For the most part, ceilings are MVFR this morning outside of KGON
and KHPN. IFR conditions are still possible, but will be
addressed with a TEMPO group. Guidance continues to be too low
with the ceilings. Enough low-level dry air has been present for
mainly VFR vsbys and this is likely the culprit for the higher
ceilings. Gradual improvement is then forecast by late
morning/early afternoon.
Showers developing across Eastern PA and Central NJ will likely
impact the terminals from 11Z to 15Z. For the time, have kept KGON
dry as the area is forecast to weaken to the east of the NYC
terminals.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: IFR conditions possible this morning, primarily
through 12Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: IFR conditions possible this morning, primarily
through 12Z. Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this
morning.
KEWR TAF Comments: IFR conditions possible this morning, primarily
through 12Z.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: IFR conditions possible this morning, primarily
through 12Z.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
KISP TAF Comments: IFR conditions possible this morning, primarily
through 12Z.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Tonight...IFR possible.
.Saturday...Early morning improvement to VFR.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Will cancel marine dense fog advy. With exception of Block Island
just to our east, vsbys appear to be on the higher side and
should remain so as a very shallow sfc-based layer remains well
mixed per model fcst soundings. Otherwise, quiet winds and seas
through Sat night outside of any possible afternoon or
evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Storm total rainfall for today should range from less then 1/10
inch for most of CT and Long Island, and up to 1/4 inch for NYC
metro and northern NJ.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
155 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WET
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ON FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. ELECTED TO HANG ON TO POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. LIKELY POPS LOOK NECESSARY IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
DRY WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY SUNSET, BUT
JUST BARELY, AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT GETS. GOING TO HOLD ON TO A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE FAR AWAY.
THE FRONT MAKES A NORTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, INDUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT AS MOISTURE BUILDS.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BECOME A CONCERN GIVEN 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING ON POTENTIALLY WET GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE ULTIMATE FATE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS WEEKEND. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A PATTERN CHANGE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. IS STILL IN THE CARDS, AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST POTENTIALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
THURSDAY. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF
THE AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AS WELL, IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANOTHER LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Front stalls across the area tonight with unsettled weather
lingering into the weekend. Weather pattern stabilizes by early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12 am update...Stationary front is still just to the Northwest of
Columbus and Cincinnati. Heavy rain showers and even isolated
embedded thunderstorms will move across the forecast area over
the next few hours. Have updated PoP based on current RADAR trends
and progressed current precipitation field across the forecast
area based on meso model guidance. Main risk overnight will be low
potential for flash flooding...however the threat will likely be
very localized in slow moving cells.
Previous Discussion...Sent a quick update to adjust hourly PoPs.
Used the HRRR model for PoPs through 12Z overnight. The rest of
forecast remains on track.
Previous discussion below...
Showers and thunderstorms on the increase across the forecast
area this afternoon. Cold front currently nearing KCMH- KCVG line.
That front does not have a whole lot of push behind it, so will
gradually sink into forecast area today and tonight...eventually
stalling out along or south of I-64. Decent instability developed
this morning with some sun...and still a few pockets of sunshine
will drifting around this afternoon. Currently seeing about
1000j/kg CAPE in the Ohio River Valley with 500-1000j/kg across
the eastern CWA. However, little to no shear will keep storms from
becoming very organized. This also leads to slow storm movement,
making heavy rainfall likely in any of the stronger showers and
storms. Flash flood guidance is running pretty high so widespread
water concerns are not expected. However with precipitable water
values from 1.5-2.0 inches localized issues cannot be ruled out,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas.
Have thunder tapering off late this evening, with POPs hitting a
minimum overnight. However kept mostly chance pops going all night
with the cold front sinking in and stalling. Areas of fog are
likely tonight where evening showers/storms leave pockets of
higher moisture. Have POPs and thunder back on the increase
Friday even though we will not see any strong solar heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An active period for weather with plenty of precipitation moving
through the area. Overall pattern has an upper level trough
digging sharply south over IT and will slowly move eastward. High
theta-e air will be lofted northward along and ahead of an upper
level jet which will put our forecast area under high chance for
PoPs. Given high moisture content and instability, we may have to
watch for water issues under any storms that do form.
A cold front will finally drive drier air into the region Sunday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Larger system that affected the region over the weekend should
slowly be pulling east of the area by Monday. A nice large ridge
builds in behind the upper level trough for quieter weather
through the majority of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still a very tricky forecast as stationary boundary remains in
place over Ohio and weak upper level disturbances will push
through the region to produce showers and thunderstorms into the
dawn hours and then again in the afternoon and evening on Friday.
Through early morning fog will also be an issue after any
showers move through over the next few hours. As light winds
combining with the rainfall yesterday and continuing this
morning...fog will be likely at all sites. However...still some
uncertainty on how dense the fog will become. For now I have coded
IFR conditions through the early morning hours at all
terminals...but am most confident HTS...CRW...PKB...and EKN will
see VLIFR to IFR conditions. Conditions will likely start to
improve after after 12Z to 13Z...then the chance for showers and
storms this afternoon may bring tempo IFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog through daybreak
and also variable conditions expected with showers and storms this
afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/03/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into the weekend and fog
during the nighttime hours.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
Today and Tonight, an upper level trough across the northern high
plains will amplify as it digs southeast into the upper Midwest
Tonight. The low-level CAA this afternoon across the northern and
central plains will cause a cold front to push southward across the
CWA this evening and through the early morning hours of Saturday. A
cut off low within the southern branch of the upper jet will remain
nearly stationary Today across east central KS but will be kicked
east ahead of the northern stream upper level trough digging
southeast across the midwest Tonight.
Today should be dry across the CWA as the southern stream cutoff
upper low remains well south of the CWA. The southeast counties may
see periods of high and mid level clouds through the day. Highs
Today will reach the mid 80s across much of the area with lower 80s
across the southeast counties due to less insolation this afternoon.
As the cold front approaches the northern counties of the CWA
combined with ascent ahead of the H5 trough digging southeast across
the northern and Central Plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms
may develop across the northern counties of the CWA after 8 PM. A
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will then push southeast
across east central KS during the early morning hours if Saturday.
The best rain chances Tonight will be across northeast and east
central KS, closer to the stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough
digging southeast into the upper Midwest. The 00Z NAM and ARW only
show isolated showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the
front and pushing southeast across northeast and east central KS.
The GFS and NMM have more of a solid band of QPF developing ahead of
the surface front Tonight across the CWA. At this time, I`m going
with a blend and will keep 30 pops across the northern counties this
evening, with 25-30 pops across east central KS after midnight. The
western and southwest counties may only see a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the night. Due to the uncertainty
in coverage, I have kept QPF below 0.05 inches.
The 00Z NAM model shows MUCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 ahead of the
surface front but all other models show MUCAPES remaining below 1000
J/KG. Therefore, the chances for severe storms are slim. I suppose a
few storms may be strong along the NE border this evening and may
produce small hail and gusty winds.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
Upper level pattern continues to amplify with a large ridge building
over the Western CONUS. Both NAM and GFS suggest there could be
some instability in the afternoon with a wrap around shortwave
from the parent upper low over the Upper MS Valley/Western Great
Lakes vicinity. Not ruling out a weak storm or two during peak
heating time frames mainly over extreme portions of northeastern
KS. No severe storms expected though as the parent low continues
to lift to the northeast through the day with dry advection behind
it. Generally, expecting the weekend and the week ahead to remain
mostly dry with a broad ridge building over the the Central CONUS
into next week. There could be a couple small chances for some
relatively weak areas of isentropic lift to develop and cause some
showers or weak storms on Tuesday, however, have not inserted POPs
that would indicate this as signals continue to be weak but would
likely be confined to a small area near the KS/NE border vicinity.
Later part of the week, there may be a weak shortwave that breaks
out of the Central Rockies that could provide enough lift over a
moistening air mass to cause early morning time frame storms but
only have slight chances as anything this far out would be hard to
resolve at the current time. Some indication remains that there
may be a deeper trough develop over the Northern Rockies late in
the period. Do expect that a strong ridge axis will make its way
overhead by late week and potentially push temps into the low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
Expect VFR conditions through most of the the next 24 hours. There
could be some isolated thunderstorms at the terminals after 6Z SAT
but these should move out by 10Z SAT. At this time POPs look too
low to place in VCTS but later shifts may have to insert VCTS into
TAFs. There may also be scattered to broken MVFR ceilings behind
a cold front after 9Z SAT.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over central TX
with additional upper energy diving southeast across the northern
Rockies. At the surface, ridge extends from the Great Lakes,
through Missouri and into the OK Panhandle. Meanwhile, surface
low is stacked under the upper low over north central TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
A couple showers/storms will be possible today over far southeast
KS on the northeast side of the upper low with the remainder of
the area seeing plenty of sun and near or slightly above normal
highs. The upper energy over the northern Rockies will continue to
dive southeast and will track across the northern Plains today and
into the northern Mississippi Valley tonight. This feature will
push a cold front through the forecast area tonight. Showers and
storms will be associated with this front with the more widespread
activity expected to be further northeast associated with the
better upper dynamics. So for now, just expecting some iso-sct
activity with the better chances over the northeast portion of the
forecast area. By 12z Sun, surface high pressure is expected to be
centered over the high Plains providing plenty of sunshine.
Temps are not expected to cool much behind the front, mainly due
to good mixing up to around 800mb both Sat and Sun. So we are
still looking for highs in the low to mid 80s both Sat and Sun.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
By Mon, deep upper low will be over southeast Ontario/eastern
Great Lakes with upper ridging over the southwest Conus. There is
some model agreement that a weak slow moving impulse will be
situated over the central Great Basin. This feature will weaken as
it tracks east and may bring some precip to western KS Tue night
into Wed morning. Noticed that the 00z ECMWF did come around
slightly to the GFS, with troughing over the western CONUS by Thu
and ridging increasing over the Rockies into the Plains. This
will promote warming temps next week with 90s expected for many
areas by Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Some low clouds will spread northward into southeast Kansas this
morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the remainder
of the region for the next 24hrs. A weak frontal boundary will
slide soutward across central Kansas late tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 84 64 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
Hutchinson 85 62 84 56 / 10 20 10 0
Newton 84 63 83 57 / 10 20 10 0
ElDorado 83 63 84 58 / 10 20 10 0
Winfield-KWLD 82 63 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
Russell 85 59 84 54 / 10 20 0 0
Great Bend 86 60 84 55 / 10 20 0 0
Salina 85 61 83 56 / 10 30 10 0
McPherson 85 61 83 56 / 10 20 10 0
Coffeyville 81 63 84 59 / 30 20 20 0
Chanute 83 63 84 59 / 20 20 20 0
Iola 83 63 84 59 / 20 20 10 0
Parsons-KPPF 82 63 84 59 / 30 20 20 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
An upper level trough traversing the northern plains this morning
will carve out a trough over the Great Lakes and eastern United
States through early next week. The associated weak cold front
will pass across Kansas tonight, with surface high pressure
building into the plains this weekend. Upper level ridging will
continue to develop over the Rockies this weekend and then shift
into the plains by mid next week. A weak surface trough will
develop over the plains by mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level
trough over the northern plains will pass across Kansas this
evening. There is a small chance of t-storms along the front this
evening. These storms are not expected to be severe, but small hail
and strong wind gusts are possible. Temperatures ahead of the front
will warm nicely into the mid to upper 80s with partly to mostly
sunny skies. Winds will become northerly tonight in the wake of the
front. Lows are expected to be in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday and then
near 90 for Monday and Tuesday. Hotter temperatures can be
expected by Wednesday and Thursday as low to mid level downslope
flow develops in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may reach into the
mid 90s and possibly the upper 90s in far western Kansas. The hot
weather will likely persist into next weekend although a weak cold
front and shortwave trough may pass by Saturday or Sunday. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
starting Monday, especially in far western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2016
Areas of radiation fog attempting to form this morning, with
boundary layer RH near 100%, but a light downslope SW breeze has
mostly prevented fog so far. Kept VCFG through 14z at GCK/DDC with
high humidity and areas of reduced vis in BR. Light SW winds into
the afternoon. Weak cold frontal passage expected during the
00-03z Sat timeframe. Models suggest enough moisture and
instability along this boundary to allow isolated -TSRA this
evening. Confidence on any direct convective impacts to any of the
terminals is low. Only included BKN mid clouds and VCTS/CB
mention, which is supported by the latest HRRR solution for 21z
Fri. North surface winds and SKC expected by 12z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 57 83 55 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 89 55 84 53 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 89 59 84 56 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 87 59 86 54 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 86 57 82 54 / 10 20 0 0
P28 85 60 87 57 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary enters the region tonight and washes out
over the area into Saturday while weak high pressure sets up just
offshore. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Sunday
moves into eastern Canada Monday, bring a warm front through
Sunday morning and a cold front late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The low will remain to the north for the start of the new
week, and then high pressure will build east for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With sufficient CAPE and a weak shortwave moving in, there will be
the chance of showers/tstms NW of the city this evening. Then the
lift weakens while the atmosphere becomes more stable, so will go
with a dry forecast for the overnight hours. Onshore flow will help
keep it mostly cloudy through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a mostly cloudy start, turning partly sunny for Saturday
afternoon with weak high pressure over the area. A shortwave
pushes in from the west during the afternoon, and with building
CAPE, there is a chance of showers and tstms over roughly the
western half of the CWA. Will go with lower-end chc to slight chc
pops since it seems that moisture will be fairly shallow. Used
superblend for high temps.
A warm front associated with low pressure to the west then begins to
approach from the SW Saturday night. Isentropic lift increases
over our area ahead of the front. In addition...a shortwave is
progged to approach and enter the vicinity of the NW zones. Also,
a theta-e ridge builds in and PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.00
inches. This combination of lift and moisture will increase rain
chances through the night, with rain likely for at least roughly
the NW half of the cwa by the end of the night. There could be a
thunderstorm, but probably isolated in nature, and more likely to
occur over the western half of the cwa where lift and CAPE will be
greater. Some heavy downpours are possible during the overnight
hours, but with the flow aloft increasing, storms should at least
not be very slow-moving.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper shortwave is becoming negatively tilted Sunday morning
through the upper midwest and Ohio valley. The trough moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic states and closes off Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. At the surface a frontal system will be moving
through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Sunday morning a
warm front moves through the region and the area will be in the
warm sector through the day, and a weak thermal ridge develops.
Even with the possibility of on going showers Sunday, daytime
heating will be enough for destabilization to occur as low level
lapse rates increase, and low level moisture also increases. Most
unstable CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon. Strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and into the evening as the upper trough moves into the
region and wind shear and lift increase, with the strongest storms
in the Lower Hudson Valley into Northeastern New Jersey. The main
threat will be strong and potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail is also possible. With the loss of heating and the upper
trough closing off and flattening the treat of strong
thunderstorms diminishes in the late evening and overnight.
Thereafter, the upper trough remains across eastern Canada into
midweek. With a weak vort rotating through Monday and colder air
aloft, a slight chance of showers remains. A better chance will be
Tuesday with a stronger vort rotating through and better
destabilization during the day.
The upper low remains Wednesday, however, surface high pressure
builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, and pops will be minimal,
with the period dry. The high weakens next Friday and a warm front
approaches with the chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure will give way to a dissipating cold front
approaching from the west this afternoon.
Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions to start, but with
abundant moisture all terminals should return to IFR tonight as the
flow weakens. In the meantime, there is still some time for
improvement to MVFR as the batch of showers over Long Island
continues to move off to the east. Farther west, showers developing
ahead of the approaching cold front may impact KSWF prior to
00Z.
S/SE flow under 10 kt will continue into the evening before
becoming light overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of changes in
ceiling and visibility tonight.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 15Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of
the city.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms.
.Monday-Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively tranquil conditions on all waters through Saturday night
outside of any possible thunderstorms.
A warm front moves north of the forecast waters Sunday morning, with
a cold front expected to moves through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The frontal system will be accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain and strong gusty
winds. An increasing southeast flow Sunday will allow ocean seas to
build to small craft levels. Small craft seas likely linger into
Tuesday as a strong northwest flow prevails behind the cold front.
Finally, occasional gusts, mainly on the ocean waters,may be near
small craft levels Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall into this evening is probably under a tenth of
an inch. No widespread significant rainfall is expected on
Saturday.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. There is the
potential for areas of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
and locally higher rainfall totals are possible, maybe 2 to 3
inches. Flash flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage
areas is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to an
upcoming new moon Sunday evening. Tides are actually high enough
to put some areas along the Long Island south shore back bays into
minor flood starting with tonight`s high tide cycle. Only about
1/2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding across the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Queens where a statement has been
issued for this evening. Expecting localized minor flooding here.
Tides will continue to run high enough to put some areas along
the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with the
high tide cycles Saturday night and Sunday night. Tidal
departures of 1/4 to 1/2 foot would also put some areas along
western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into minor flood
during the higher of the two daily tides, mainly Sunday night.
Background anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain
so through the weekend, so additional statements, or advisories
may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/MET
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible across western MA/Northern CT early this
evening, otherwise it will be dry and turning warm on Saturday. An
approaching cold front will bring a widespread soaking rain Sunday
into Sunday night. Warmer weather follows Monday into Tuesday, but a
cold front may bring a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and night with cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A pre-frontal trough will approach interior southern New England
early this evening. Marginal instability may result in a few showers
with the low risk of an isolated-storm or two through early evening
across western MA/Northern CT. Given limited instability and
forcing, not expecting any severe weather in our region.
Otherwise, any widely scattered activity that is able to develop
across the interior will dissipate after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. The main concern will then shift to the development
of low clouds and areas of fog given dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60 with light winds. Areal coverage of the fog remains
uncertain, so something will have to watch closely. Low temps by
daybreak expected to generally drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A warm Saturday afternoon away from the immediate coast***
Saturday...
Areas of low clouds and fog will burn off across most of southern
New England by late Saturday morning, but may linger a bit longer
along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by late morning/early afternoon. With
850t between +12 and +14c should see highs recover in the lower to
middle 80s in most locations. Weak pressure gradient will result in
sea breezes along the immediate coasts, holding high temps in the
upper 60s to middle 70s in these locations.
Kept the forecast dry through Saturday afternoon. There is a very
low risk of a spot shower or two along the sea breeze front, but
even if that happened areal coverage/duration would be so limited
felt it was not worth a mention in the forecast.
Saturday night...
Dry weather persists for much of the night. Approaching shortwave
from the southwest may allow some showers to develop across across
interior southern New England after 6z. Otherwise, clouds increase
overnight and there might be some patchy fog. Low temps by daybreak
will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- Rain likely Sunday into Sunday night, heavy at times
- Potentially dry on Monday and mild
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday
- Cooler, unsettled weather pattern possible for rest of early June
*/ DISCUSSION...
An unsettled, cooler weather pattern advertised over New England per
averaged 1 to 2 week forecasts for early June via Climate Prediction
Center. Interrogating the bigger picture, low pressure maintains
over the N Pacific E of which progressive flow allows Pacific-origin
energy to waffle the EPO/PNA pattern with either ridging or cyclo-
genesis over the W CONUS mainly across the N / Canadian Rockies.
With Icelandic / Greenland ridging parent with a N Atlantic cutoff
low likely contributing to a -NAO/-AO pattern, E progressing storms
are slowed across Eastern N America creating a favorable environment
for mature storms to undergo maturation into occlusion. An ensemble
forecast evaluation shows that within such an environment H5 heights
are 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal while H85 temperatures
are considerably below average beginning Sunday into early next week
which are discussed in detail below.
So to begin, a soaker Sunday into Sunday night. Widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms given a number of
convective indices just around their respective thresholds. An over-
running setup of S/SW flow of Gulf moisture (precipitable waters +2
standard deviations and within the 99th percentile of climatology)
undergoing isentropic ascent NE parent with a lifting warm front and
mid level vortex energy. Focus on convergent H925-85 flow beneath
favorable diffluence aloft more so in areas of with any instability
likely elevated. A challenge to nail down exactly where but thinking
that perhaps the 03.0z NAM may have the right idea with a secondary
low along the coast given the anomalous setup. Aside, the take-away
is that there will be a good slug of rain with rainfall amounts
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, locally higher around 1.50 inches.
Strong signal of such outcomes per ensemble means and probabalistics
for +1 inch. Maybe some nuisance poor-drainage flooding but honestly
feel the region should handle it with rainfall occurring over a
longer period of time. Otherwise, cool E/SE onshore flow ahead of
the warm front with deeper moisture aloft, likely some low cloud and
mist / fog issues throughout the period. Another challenge is when
the warm front will lift N. Possibly late Sunday into Sunday night
making for a non-diurnal temperature trend into Monday as flow
reverts S.
For Monday through Wednesday, contending with the occluded, stacked
low N and W over the S Hudson Bay region of Canada. Monday looks to
remain dry beneath the dry slot entraining into the system. But over
time the cold pool and cyclonic flow wobble S/E. With any mid-level
vortex energy rotating through the S periphery of the low combined
with diurnal heating, there is the chance for shower / thunderstorm
activity. Limited instability within a highly sheared environment
given poor environmental lapse rates, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a convective threat as originally thought, but will still
keep it in mind. Chance PoPs with higher confidence N/W closer to
the low. Temperatures closer to average.
End of the week, will keep Thursday dry. Thereafter a fair amount of
model forecast variability lending to low confidence. An ensemble
forecast approach has pacific-origin energy from the W potentially
interacting / phasing with energy drawn S out of the Arctic. It is
perhaps that the overall trend is for continued troughing across the
NE CONUS lending to a cooler, unsettled weather pattern as the
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...
Though 00z this evening...Moderate confidence. Lingering MVFR CIGS
should gradually improve to mainly VFR, except for portions of the
immediate south coast, Cape and Islands where lower CIGS may
persist. A few showers with the low risk of an isolated t-storm
across western MA through early this evening.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR away from the south coast
this evening, but low end MVFR-IFR with even some LIFR conditions
should develop in low clouds and areas of fog. Exact timing
uncertain.
Saturday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog should burn off by
late morning although may linger a tad longer along the south coast,
Cape and Islands.
Saturday night...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR during the
evening, but some low clouds and fog patches may develop late. A
band of showers may also move into interior southern New England
after 6z. The overall result will be the potential for some MVFR-
IFR conditions to develop late, but uncertain on timing and extent.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF into this evening with VFR
conditions expected. MVFR-IFR conditions likely develop late tonight
but improvement to VFR expected by mid to late Saturday morning.
Also, high confidence in ESE sea breeze from late Sat am into the
afternoon.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday into Sunday night...
MVFR to LIFR mix with -RA/RA, possible +RA with a lesser risk of
TSRA. Winds turning S and increasing with the potential for gusts
around 25 kts late Sunday evening, gradually backing S/SW overnight.
Potentially improving to VFR by morning.
Monday into Monday night...
Will prevail VFR with S/SW winds potentially gusting to 25 kts at
times. SCT-BKN low-end VFR over the N/W during the day likely
sweeping S/E gradually with time.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...
Continued SW winds gusting up around 25 kts with low-end VFR cigs.
Chance SHRA/TSRA to develop through the day with TEMPO MVFR/IFR
impacts, dissipating into evening and overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Saturday night/...High confidence.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas well below small craft
advisory thresholds through Saturday night. Main concern for
mariners will be for areas of fog at times tonight into Saturday
morning, which may be locally dense across our southern waters.
Another round of fog may develop Saturday night.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Saturday night...
Increasing E/SE flow overnight with higher confidence of marine
stratus along with mist / drizzle / fog conditions developing.
Threat of visibility impacts down a mile or two. Waves below 5 feet.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A warm front will slowly lift NE across the waters along with a good
shot of rain, potentially heavy at times and possibly with some
embedded thunder. S/SE flow prior to warm frontal passage behind
which winds back out of the S/SW. Potential for gusts around 25 kts
throughout the period. Small craft advisories under consideration
along with waves on the outer waters building 5 to 6 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...
Feel conditions will be mainly dry with the primary threat being SW
winds gusting around 25 kts especially for the S/SE waters.
Convective threats will exist across the interior, especially
Tuesday, which may drag S/E over the near short waters. Small craft
advisories under consideration along with waves on the outer waters
of 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach from the west today, and
wash out over the area through Saturday while weak high pressure
sets up just offshore. Low pressure moving into eastern Canada
will then drag a trailing frontal system across from late
Saturday night into Sunday night. The low will remain to the north
for the start of the new week, and then high pressure will build
east for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move through the cwa this morning into early
afternoon, primarily over the eastern zones. An 850-700 mb
shortwave moving through could trigger more showers this afternoon
with a better chance of this over the southern zones. With CAPES
increasing, a late-day thunderstorm is also not out of the
question west of the city.
Clouds will otherwise outweigh any sunshine with a continued
onshore flow. Have dropped high temp forecast by a couple of
degrees for the coastal zones due to clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers should end this evening as elevated forcing
and weak instability depart, and the sfc front washes out. It
will be dry but mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid 50
sot mid 60s.
Most of Sat should be dry, but did include a 30 PoP mainly for NYC
metro north/west for any widely sct afternoon showers/tstms.
Chances for showers and isolated tstms increase with the approach
of a leading warm front, with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper trough digs into the Midwest as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves into eastern Canada. A warm front will pass north
of the region Sunday morning, and then a warm, humid, and unstable
airmass spreads north into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, a cold
front tracks through the OH Valley and towards the Appalachians
during the day Sunday, and that front passes through the local CWA
late Sunday and Sunday night.
The 03/00Z GFS shows that PW will increase to around 2 inches,
and MUCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg. This will
result in potentially strong to severe thunderstorms with strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the front
passes through. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there
could be training of cells, resulting in the threat for
flash flooding.
After the cold front passes through Sunday night, broad low
pressure remains over eastern Canada, and a deep upper trough
remains over the Northeast for the start of the week. Some showers
may be possible as several shortwaves pass through the region.
Upper trough departs on Wednesday, and surface high pressure builds
east and moves over the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure across the area this morning will give
way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. This
will result in a continued moist return flow.
Ceilings were generally MVFR at the NYC terminals and IFR
elsewhere. Enough low-level dry air has been present for mainly
VFR vsbys outside of showers. Gradual improvement is forecast by
late morning/early afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings today. KSWF
is forecast to go VFR this afternoon and it is possible this could
work as far east as the NYC terminals.
Showers will impact the terminals this morning, mainly through
15-16Z.
E to SE winds 5 kt or less early, then a S/SE flow will gradually
increase during the day, but remain under 10 kt.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Winds may be remain E/NE for a longer period this morning. Low
confidence on VFR conditions this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.
Low to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions possible this morning. Low
to moderate confidence on VFR conditions developing this
afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning. Low to moderate confidence on VFR
conditions developing this afternoon.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely in timing of improving
ceiling category this morning.
.OUTLOOKS FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...Improvement to VFR after 12Z. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon.
.Sunday...IFR conditions developing. Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet winds and seas through Sat night outside of any possible
afternoon or evening tstms.
A warm front lifts north of the waters Sunday morning, and then a
cold front approaches during the day. The tightening pressure
gradient will result in SE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on
the ocean waters, and around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt on all
other waters. In addition, ocean seas will build to 4-6 ft by Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly producing heavy rain
and gusty winds, will pass through the waters Sunday afternoon and
evening.
Swells will keep ocean seas high into the start of the new week, and
seas will subside to sub-SCA criteria by Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall today should be under a quarter of an inch,
but higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms west of the
city late today into early evening.
There is a potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall with
isolated higher amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Estimated
maximum rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour with flash
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide heights are running very high due to the
current new moon, and are actually high enough to put some areas
along the Long Island south shore back bays into minor flood with
the high tide cycles both Sat night and Sunday night. Elsewhere,
very little departure (only 1/4 to 1/2 ft) would also put some
areas along western Long Island Sound and lower NY Harbor into
minor flood during the higher of the two daily tides. Background
anomalies are within this range and forecast to remain so through
the weekend, so statements or advisories may eventually be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
this afternoon...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight.
High pressure will crest across the region overnight into Saturday
with fair seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions
will become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will
move through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 AM EDT...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central NY into eastern NY late this morning. Abundant
cloud cover exists ahead of the front. Some shower activity
continues over the lower to mid Hudson Valley and SW New England.
Heating going to be limited today. Some SBCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range is likely south and east of Albany where sfc dewpts are
in the lower 60s. A brief period of some sun and clouds may occurs
in the mid to late pm for isold thunderstorms to pop up. The
latest HRRR favors 21Z- 23Z south and east of the Capital
District. The pops were retooled to reflect this...and a slight
chc of thunderstorms was used in the grids.
At this time, not expecting any severe weather as overall shear
appears rather marginal. Any convection will weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating as it tracks through the mid-
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. Highs will be in the mid
and upper 70s in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain.
Then a narrow ridge of high pressure and short wave ridge axis
moves in overnight Friday into Saturday. This should keep the
weather tranquil with seasonable temperatures. The NAM wants to
develop terrain based showers but this was discounted due to the
less than favorable synoptic pattern with the aforementioned
anticyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. However, clouds
will be on the increase from the south in advance of second half
of the weekend soggy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
My last midnight shift AFD...WRS
At 500hpa the ridge over the region will break down Saturday evening.
A 500 hpa cutoff will move east from the upper Great Plains to
western Quebec. Overall this will result in unsettled conditions.
Initially the stalled cdfnt to our south will surge back n as a
wmfnt. Fed with 30-40kt 850hpa llvl jet this should provide a rich
moisture source. As sfc low lifts ne twrd the Ottawa valley it
will drag its cdfnt across the region Sunday night. Sunday will
feature numerous shra with sct Tstms as modest amounts of cape
evolve over rgn. QPF could be on the order of 1-2 inches with some
isold higher amounts. Most of this rainfall will be absorbed by
dry ground and vegetation.
Showers end from west to east as cdfnt moves e of rgn by 06utc
Mon. Shra should bcm sct as westerly sfc flow becomes est over
fca...and much of fca moves into dry slot. Hwvr short waves
continue to move through the 500 hpa cutoff parked in the upper
Ottawa valley, with chc -shra mainly N late at night. Temps are
nr to slightly abv normal during this period.
Mon much of fca is in dry slot...as 500hpa cut off lifts NE into E
Ontario. CSTAR warm season closed/cutoff low research indicates
some potential for active weather Monday. The h500 cutoff low is
south of James Bay with a series of short- wave troughs rotating
around the low. If enough heating occurs with sufficient
instability...sct showers and thunderstorm will be possible. Mid
level lapse rates look fairly steep this far out on the GFS/ECMWF.
Some small hail looks at least possible. Mon nt -shra activity
will diminish...hwvr it will linger later than the usually
diurnal forcing as short wvs continue to rotate around the cutoff
low at 500hpa...crossing the rgn.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For all of this period the fca is in a general trof at 500hpa with
a cut off meandering around south Ontario and Quebec. While
unsettled conditions will persist as short wvs rotate around this
feature across the region...the fca is south of main cutoff...strong
sun will allow some sunny intervals in the day and southern areas
will be in dry slot. Hwvr sct shra will be common with a diurnal
max. Temps will begin the efp near normals...but trend blo them
by periods end.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS continue to lower with MVFR thresholds and borderline IFR
CIGS where showers and lower stratus are currently. Winds will
either be light and variable or from the southerly direction at
10kts or less.
Through the daylight hours Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly
drift southeastward. This will assist with a focus mechanism for
more showers to develop. Flight conditions expected to remain
within MVFR but could briefly rise into VFR between any shower
activity. The best chance for wet conditions appear to impact KPOU
and just south of KPSF at the present time. Winds will be
southerly and slowly become southwesterly at speeds around 10kts.
Tonight, flight conditions could be restricted as low level
moisture remains in place. Combination of light winds, some
clearing from north to south could allow for dewpoint depressions
to narrow for BR/FG or low stratus to develop.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow moving cold front will drop south through the region
today...stalling in the mid Atlantic region tonight. High pressure
will crest across the region overnight into Saturday with fair
seasonable weather. Sunday into the new week conditions will
become unsettled across the region. A frontal system will move
through the eastern Great Lakes with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Monday into midweek a large
disturbance in the upper atmosphere lingers over Ontario and
Quebec. It will result in scattered showers particularly north.
Fire weather concerns should be minimal during this period...and
none are expected after 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next week
across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5
inches. The heaviest rain is expected on Sunday when a widespread
soaking rainfall is forecast. Widespread flooding is not expected
but most rivers should see substantial rises.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Snyder
LONG TERM...Snyder
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Snyder
HYDROLOGY...Snyder