Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/02/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...

Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.

Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.

Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns.  On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas.  On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.

Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin.  A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat.  It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well.  High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.

On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV.  There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains.  Highs both days are expected to be above average.

Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave.  There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... The 18Z TAF discussion is included below. && .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Scattered storms will affect or will be in the vicinity of the TAF sites during the forecast period. Attempted to give a more favored timing at each of the sites...knowing that this may change and will have to be amended. Guidance indicates that fog may reappear again in NW AR toward dawn Wed morning...and this was included in the TAFs. There`s also an indication of some MVFR cigs for the NE OK sites around dawn. Lacy && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ DISCUSSION... Complex of storms, which formed in association with the synoptic front, were affecting NE OK this morning. These storms weren`t well resolved by the numerical guidance. The latest couple runs of the HRRR have finally latched on to this...and will use the theme of its forecast for the remainder of today. Given the effects of the morning storms...looks like the better chances for afternoon storms will be along and south of I-40 and have adjusted pops in that direction. If trends continue further adjustment will be made. The evening hours look quiet...before more storms develop to the south and west and eventually track into parts of the area after midnight. Lacy PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VLIFR vsbys/cigs will prevail across nw AR for a brief period this morning...with MVFR cigs occurring briefly at the remaining TAF sites. Cigs to lift to VFR by afternoon...with increasing MVFR cigs tonight as TSRA chances continue for the latter portion of the TAF period...and will be covered with prob groups at all sites after 06z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ DISCUSSION... Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone across the northern Plains...with convection extending along a weak front from MN into southwestern KS. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today...especially during the afternoon...as the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Increasing instability this afternoon will be supportive of a few strong thunderstorms...although the overall weak bulk shear should preclude organized severe weather. That said...still could see sporadic severe thunderstorms...with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will remain on the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level shear axis linger across the forecast area. As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states...with associated shear axis is expected to shift a little farther south by Thursday into Friday. The higher PoPs are expected across southeast OK into western AR during this timeframe...with rain chances trailing off by Saturday. Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop late this weekend into early next week...with several days of drier weather along with seasonal temperatures. TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 64 77 62 / 50 70 70 20 FSM 85 67 80 66 / 50 60 70 60 MLC 82 64 76 63 / 80 70 70 40 BVO 81 62 77 61 / 40 70 60 20 FYV 81 62 77 61 / 50 60 70 60 BYV 81 62 78 61 / 50 60 70 60 MKO 83 64 77 62 / 50 70 70 40 MIO 81 62 78 61 / 50 70 70 20 F10 81 64 76 62 / 50 70 70 30 HHW 84 66 78 66 / 80 70 70 60 && .TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...30 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east, weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning. Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited. A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a dry and more summerlike day can be expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area, while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains. Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z. Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or less. && .BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...Barjenbruch
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 ...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight... Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight, then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning. Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding, although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000 j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight. QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some localized inch or more amounts. Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and Sangres an inch or two. Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains and high valleys. Rose .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge. There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average. Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are expected to be a little above average. On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average. Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it into wrn CO Tue afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development. At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals. Lukinbeal/Petersen && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 432 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 ...Starting to warm and dry... First off, some light fog and low clouds over parts of El Paso County this morning. Nothing too widespread in the metro area itself but more so over northern and far eastern parts of the county. This should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Upper high pressure will start to build over Colorado today. This will warm and dry the atmosphere. There will still be some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around, mainly in a near the mountains, but they will tend to be more isolated and less intense than in previous days. Primary storm threats today will be lightning and gusty winds. There could also be a locally heavy rainer out there, especially over the southern mountain areas along and west of the southern I-25 corridor. Showers and storms should dissipate pretty quickly after sunset with clearing skies and near seasonal temperatures for the overnight hours. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 An upper ridge over the Western US will be the prominent feature for weather across Colorado into next week. Friday...The upper ridge will be firmly in place over the Western US...keeping the area warm and mostly dry. There will be a very isolated shot of some afternoon and eve convection over the highest peaks, but the remainder of the forecast area should remain dry. Look for max temps in the 80s, and up to around 90 F for the e plains. Saturday and Sunday...An upper shortwave will cross Montana and the Dakotas on Fri, pushing a cool surge of moist air down into CO late Fri through early Sat. This northerly push will then become more easterly through Sun, providing for increased pcpn chances across the higher terrain and eastern plains both days. Increased cloud cover and easterly llvl flow will help to cool temps somewhat, though max temps should still climb to seasonal norms in the mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys. Monday through Wednesday...The upper ridge starts to weaken as the ridge axis shifts to the east, from the West Coast to the Great Basin. However, models are disagreeing on the look of this development, with the EC maintaining a diurnal mt convection pattern and the GFS being much more generous with pops and QPF. For now will try to split the difference in convection timing, and start the upward climb for temps once again. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 A little light fog and low clouds across El Paso County this morning, including KCOS. This will continue through the overnight hours and then dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, generally VFR across flight area over the next 24 hours as upper high pressure builds in over the region. There will still be some afternoon and evening thunderstorms in and near the mountains but storms will tend to be less widespread and less intense than in previous days. The primary window for storms will be 18Z to 03Z. The primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts to around 40 mph. KCOS and KALS could see VCTS as afternoon and evening storms try and roll off the mountains. KPUB will likely be too far east for VCTS today. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east, weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning. Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited. A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a dry and more summerlike day can be expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area, while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains. Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z. Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or less. && .BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 ...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight... Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight, then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning. Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding, although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000 j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight. QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some localized inch or more amounts. Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and Sangres an inch or two. Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains and high valleys. Rose .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge. There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average. Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are expected to be a little above average. On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average. Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it into wrn CO Tue afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development. At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals. Lukinbeal/Petersen && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 200 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 Upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest will result in warm and dry weather across north central and northeastern Colorado over the next couple of days. Models are showing a weak...dry cool front moving across northeastern Colorado around noon on Friday. The only effect this front will have on the area may be a very slight decrease in daytime high temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 The upper level ridge to the west will build over the region Friday night and Saturday. A moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the cwa Friday night with a weak disturbance passing to the north and east of Colorado. A weak front will push into the cwa late Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler than Friday...but increasing subsidence associated with the building ridge should negate thunderstorms over the northeast plains. The mdls keep the best instability in the mountains and foothills southwest of Denver as well as South Park. On Sunday...temperatures will warm up again with the best chance of thunderstorms continuing over the higher terrain in the late afternoon and evening. Monday and Monday night...the ridge aloft will remain over Colorado with a weak northwesterly flow aloft over the cwa. The best chance of thunderstorms will remain to the west and south of Denver. The northeast plains remain too capped for the most part to produce thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. Tuesday into Wednesday... the subsidence associated with the ridge will weaken as a weak upper trough over central Nevada around 18z Monday breaks down the ridge and moves across the state. This system is weak and disorganized but will be sufficient to produce a better chance of thunderstorms over much of the cwa. Drier weather may return by Thursday as the trough shifts to the east and an upper level ridge builds back over the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal winds are expected overnight...with winds turning northerly by 18z...behind a weak cool front. && .BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kalina LONG TERM...Cooper AVIATION...Kalina
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1126 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 A blocky mid latitude weather pattern is setting up with high pressure over the western Atlantic complimenting a building ridge across the Intermountain West to end this week. Can`t rule out a stray thunderstorm over the southern high terrain with an ill defined wave dropping southward across this region at peak heating. Soundings suggest the only moisture around is atop the EML so high based storms with more wind than rain is expected. Warming temperatures aloft begin to decrease the instability and it will be harder for any storms to develop going into Friday. Highs will be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the next few afternoons. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest through the weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region. Above normal temperatures will persist through at least early next week. Moisture tap on Sunday which we had been talking about is less defined, but there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the continental divide beginning Saturday late afternoon if enough moisture does become available. General southwest flow will increase on Monday, allowing for even warmer temperatures before the gradient eases on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 VFR conditions and diurnally induced wind changes will prevail over the next 24 hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 Rising maximum and minimum temperatures will lead to an increase in snowmelt from the high mountains over the next few days. Stream and river flows are expected to significantly rise by this weekend. Use caution if recreating on or near rivers as conditions change over the next week. && .GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...JAM HYDROLOGY...TGJT
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 432 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 ...Starting to warm and dry... First off, some light fog and low clouds over parts of El Paso County this morning. Nothing too widespread in the metro area itself but more so over northern and far eastern parts of the county. This should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Upper high pressure will start to build over Colorado today. This will warm and dry the atmosphere. There will still be some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around, mainly in a near the mountains, but they will tend to be more isolated and less intense than in previous days. Primary storm threats today will be lightning and gusty winds. There could also be a locally heavy rainer out there, especially over the southern mountain areas along and west of the southern I-25 corridor. Showers and storms should dissipate pretty quickly after sunset with clearing skies and near seasonal temperatures for the overnight hours. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 An upper ridge over the Western US will be the prominent feature for weather across Colorado into next week. Friday...The upper ridge will be firmly in place over the Western US...keeping the area warm and mostly dry. There will be a very isolated shot of some afternoon and eve convection over the highest peaks, but the remainder of the forecast area should remain dry. Look for max temps in the 80s, and up to around 90 F for the e plains. Saturday and Sunday...An upper shortwave will cross Montana and the Dakotas on Fri, pushing a cool surge of moist air down into CO late Fri through early Sat. This northerly push will then become more easterly through Sun, providing for increased pcpn chances across the higher terrain and eastern plains both days. Increased cloud cover and easterly llvl flow will help to cool temps somewhat, though max temps should still climb to seasonal norms in the mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys. Monday through Wednesday...The upper ridge starts to weaken as the ridge axis shifts to the east, from the West Coast to the Great Basin. However, models are disagreeing on the look of this development, with the EC maintaining a diurnal mt convection pattern and the GFS being much more generous with pops and QPF. For now will try to split the difference in convection timing, and start the upward climb for temps once again. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 A little light fog and low clouds across El Paso County this morning, including KCOS. This will continue through the overnight hours and then dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, generally VFR across flight area over the next 24 hours as upper high pressure builds in over the region. There will still be some afternoon and evening thunderstorms in and near the mountains but storms will tend to be less widespread and less intense than in previous days. The primary window for storms will be 18Z to 03Z. The primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts to around 40 mph. KCOS and KALS could see VCTS as afternoon and evening storms try and roll off the mountains. KPUB will likely be too far east for VCTS today. && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east, weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning. Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited. A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a dry and more summerlike day can be expected. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area, while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains. Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016 VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z. Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or less. && .BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Kriederman AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 ...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight... Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight, then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning. Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding, although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000 j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight. QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some localized inch or more amounts. Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and Sangres an inch or two. Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains and high valleys. Rose .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge. There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average. Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are expected to be a little above average. On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average. Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it into wrn CO Tue afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016 Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development. At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals. Lukinbeal/Petersen && .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN