Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/02/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...
Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.
Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.
Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.
Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.
On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average.
Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z TAF discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered storms will affect or will be in the vicinity of the
TAF sites during the forecast period. Attempted to give a more
favored timing at each of the sites...knowing that this may change
and will have to be amended. Guidance indicates that fog may
reappear again in NW AR toward dawn Wed morning...and this was
included in the TAFs. There`s also an indication of some MVFR cigs
for the NE OK sites around dawn.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Complex of storms, which formed in association with the synoptic
front, were affecting NE OK this morning. These storms weren`t
well resolved by the numerical guidance. The latest couple runs of
the HRRR have finally latched on to this...and will use the theme
of its forecast for the remainder of today. Given the effects of
the morning storms...looks like the better chances for afternoon
storms will be along and south of I-40 and have adjusted pops in
that direction. If trends continue further adjustment will be
made. The evening hours look quiet...before more storms develop to
the south and west and eventually track into parts of the area
after midnight.
Lacy
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VLIFR vsbys/cigs will prevail across nw AR for a brief period
this morning...with MVFR cigs occurring briefly at the remaining
TAF sites. Cigs to lift to VFR by afternoon...with increasing MVFR
cigs tonight as TSRA chances continue for the latter portion of
the TAF period...and will be covered with prob groups at all sites
after 06z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone
across the northern Plains...with convection extending along a
weak front from MN into southwestern KS. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase today...especially during the afternoon...as
the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Increasing
instability this afternoon will be supportive of a few strong
thunderstorms...although the overall weak bulk shear should
preclude organized severe weather. That said...still could see
sporadic severe thunderstorms...with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will remain on
the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level
shear axis linger across the forecast area.
As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states...with
associated shear axis is expected to shift a little farther south
by Thursday into Friday. The higher PoPs are expected across
southeast OK into western AR during this timeframe...with rain
chances trailing off by Saturday.
Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop late this weekend
into early next week...with several days of drier weather along
with seasonal temperatures.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 64 77 62 / 50 70 70 20
FSM 85 67 80 66 / 50 60 70 60
MLC 82 64 76 63 / 80 70 70 40
BVO 81 62 77 61 / 40 70 60 20
FYV 81 62 77 61 / 50 60 70 60
BYV 81 62 78 61 / 50 60 70 60
MKO 83 64 77 62 / 50 70 70 40
MIO 81 62 78 61 / 50 70 70 20
F10 81 64 76 62 / 50 70 70 30
HHW 84 66 78 66 / 80 70 70 60
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east,
weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning.
Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer
moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some
cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited.
A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a
ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures
will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high
temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming
aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a
low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front
Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There
may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing
short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a
dry and more summerlike day can be expected.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area
as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes
down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a
cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the
airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than
today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area,
while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly
drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast
soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over
the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few
showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of
cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south
on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains
should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not
warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the
airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface
pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer
temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal
convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains.
Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over
California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy
stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog
possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z.
Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should
be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal
and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or
less.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...
Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.
Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.
Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.
Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.
On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average.
Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
432 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
...Starting to warm and dry...
First off, some light fog and low clouds over parts of El Paso
County this morning. Nothing too widespread in the metro area
itself but more so over northern and far eastern parts of the
county. This should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise.
Upper high pressure will start to build over Colorado today. This
will warm and dry the atmosphere. There will still be some
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around, mainly in a
near the mountains, but they will tend to be more isolated and less
intense than in previous days. Primary storm threats today will be
lightning and gusty winds. There could also be a locally heavy
rainer out there, especially over the southern mountain areas along
and west of the southern I-25 corridor. Showers and storms should
dissipate pretty quickly after sunset with clearing skies and near
seasonal temperatures for the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
An upper ridge over the Western US will be the prominent
feature for weather across Colorado into next week.
Friday...The upper ridge will be firmly in place over the Western
US...keeping the area warm and mostly dry. There will be a very
isolated shot of some afternoon and eve convection over the highest
peaks, but the remainder of the forecast area should remain dry.
Look for max temps in the 80s, and up to around 90 F for the e
plains.
Saturday and Sunday...An upper shortwave will cross Montana and the
Dakotas on Fri, pushing a cool surge of moist air down into CO late
Fri through early Sat. This northerly push will then become more
easterly through Sun, providing for increased pcpn chances across
the higher terrain and eastern plains both days. Increased cloud
cover and easterly llvl flow will help to cool temps somewhat,
though max temps should still climb to seasonal norms in the mid 70s
to lower 80s for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys.
Monday through Wednesday...The upper ridge starts to weaken as the
ridge axis shifts to the east, from the West Coast to the Great
Basin. However, models are disagreeing on the look of this
development, with the EC maintaining a diurnal mt convection pattern
and the GFS being much more generous with pops and QPF. For now will
try to split the difference in convection timing, and start the
upward climb for temps once again. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A little light fog and low clouds across El Paso County this
morning, including KCOS. This will continue through the overnight
hours and then dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Otherwise,
generally VFR across flight area over the next 24 hours as upper
high pressure builds in over the region. There will still be some
afternoon and evening thunderstorms in and near the mountains but
storms will tend to be less widespread and less intense than in
previous days. The primary window for storms will be 18Z to 03Z.
The primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts to around
40 mph. KCOS and KALS could see VCTS as afternoon and evening
storms try and roll off the mountains. KPUB will likely be too far
east for VCTS today.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east,
weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning.
Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer
moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some
cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited.
A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a
ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures
will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high
temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming
aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a
low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front
Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There
may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing
short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a
dry and more summerlike day can be expected.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area
as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes
down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a
cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the
airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than
today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area,
while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly
drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast
soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over
the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few
showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of
cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south
on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains
should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not
warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the
airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface
pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer
temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal
convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains.
Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over
California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy
stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog
possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z.
Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should
be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal
and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or
less.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...
Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.
Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.
Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.
Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.
On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average.
Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
200 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest
will result in warm and dry weather across north central and
northeastern Colorado over the next couple of days. Models are
showing a weak...dry cool front moving across northeastern
Colorado around noon on Friday. The only effect this front will
have on the area may be a very slight decrease in daytime high
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
The upper level ridge to the west will build over the region
Friday night and Saturday. A moderate northwesterly flow aloft
will be over the cwa Friday night with a weak disturbance passing
to the north and east of Colorado. A weak front will push into
the cwa late Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly cooler than Friday...but increasing
subsidence associated with the building ridge should negate
thunderstorms over the northeast plains. The mdls keep the best
instability in the mountains and foothills southwest of Denver as
well as South Park. On Sunday...temperatures will warm up again
with the best chance of thunderstorms continuing over the higher
terrain in the late afternoon and evening. Monday and Monday
night...the ridge aloft will remain over Colorado with a weak
northwesterly flow aloft over the cwa. The best chance of
thunderstorms will remain to the west and south of Denver. The
northeast plains remain too capped for the most part to produce
thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. Tuesday into Wednesday...
the subsidence associated with the ridge will weaken as a weak
upper trough over central Nevada around 18z Monday breaks down the
ridge and moves across the state. This system is weak and
disorganized but will be sufficient to produce a better chance of
thunderstorms over much of the cwa. Drier weather may return by
Thursday as the trough shifts to the east and an upper level ridge
builds back over the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal winds are
expected overnight...with winds turning northerly by 18z...behind
a weak cool front.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kalina
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kalina
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A blocky mid latitude weather pattern is setting up with high
pressure over the western Atlantic complimenting a building ridge
across the Intermountain West to end this week. Can`t rule out a
stray thunderstorm over the southern high terrain with an ill
defined wave dropping southward across this region at peak
heating. Soundings suggest the only moisture around is atop the
EML so high based storms with more wind than rain is expected.
Warming temperatures aloft begin to decrease the instability and
it will be harder for any storms to develop going into Friday.
Highs will be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the next few
afternoons.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest through the
weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region. Above
normal temperatures will persist through at least early next week.
Moisture tap on Sunday which we had been talking about is less
defined, but there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the continental divide beginning Saturday late afternoon if
enough moisture does become available. General southwest flow will
increase on Monday, allowing for even warmer temperatures before
the gradient eases on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions and diurnally induced wind changes will prevail
over the next 24 hours.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Rising maximum and minimum temperatures will lead to an increase
in snowmelt from the high mountains over the next few days.
Stream and river flows are expected to significantly rise by
this weekend. Use caution if recreating on or near rivers as
conditions change over the next week.
&&
.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
432 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
...Starting to warm and dry...
First off, some light fog and low clouds over parts of El Paso
County this morning. Nothing too widespread in the metro area
itself but more so over northern and far eastern parts of the
county. This should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise.
Upper high pressure will start to build over Colorado today. This
will warm and dry the atmosphere. There will still be some
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around, mainly in a
near the mountains, but they will tend to be more isolated and less
intense than in previous days. Primary storm threats today will be
lightning and gusty winds. There could also be a locally heavy
rainer out there, especially over the southern mountain areas along
and west of the southern I-25 corridor. Showers and storms should
dissipate pretty quickly after sunset with clearing skies and near
seasonal temperatures for the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
An upper ridge over the Western US will be the prominent
feature for weather across Colorado into next week.
Friday...The upper ridge will be firmly in place over the Western
US...keeping the area warm and mostly dry. There will be a very
isolated shot of some afternoon and eve convection over the highest
peaks, but the remainder of the forecast area should remain dry.
Look for max temps in the 80s, and up to around 90 F for the e
plains.
Saturday and Sunday...An upper shortwave will cross Montana and the
Dakotas on Fri, pushing a cool surge of moist air down into CO late
Fri through early Sat. This northerly push will then become more
easterly through Sun, providing for increased pcpn chances across
the higher terrain and eastern plains both days. Increased cloud
cover and easterly llvl flow will help to cool temps somewhat,
though max temps should still climb to seasonal norms in the mid 70s
to lower 80s for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys.
Monday through Wednesday...The upper ridge starts to weaken as the
ridge axis shifts to the east, from the West Coast to the Great
Basin. However, models are disagreeing on the look of this
development, with the EC maintaining a diurnal mt convection pattern
and the GFS being much more generous with pops and QPF. For now will
try to split the difference in convection timing, and start the
upward climb for temps once again. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A little light fog and low clouds across El Paso County this
morning, including KCOS. This will continue through the overnight
hours and then dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise. Otherwise,
generally VFR across flight area over the next 24 hours as upper
high pressure builds in over the region. There will still be some
afternoon and evening thunderstorms in and near the mountains but
storms will tend to be less widespread and less intense than in
previous days. The primary window for storms will be 18Z to 03Z.
The primary storm threats will be lightning and wind gusts to around
40 mph. KCOS and KALS could see VCTS as afternoon and evening
storms try and roll off the mountains. KPUB will likely be too far
east for VCTS today.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
326 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
A slow moving area of thunderstorms will continue to push east,
weaken, and exit the far eastern plains early this morning.
Should see a couple areas of fog due to the high boundary layer
moisture on the plains, but lingering convection and some
cloudiness should keep the early morning fog coverage limited.
A warmer and drier day will occur over the forecast area as a
ridge of high pressure noses in from the southwest. Temperatures
will warm aloft as the thermal ridge builds in, resulting in high
temperatures about 8-9F warmer across the plains. Both the warming
aloft and drying will limit convection development, with only a
low chance of late afternoon and evening storms over the Front
Range mountains due to elevated heat source and weaker cap. There
may also be a low chance near the Wyoming border where a passing
short wave this evening could bring an isolated storm. Overall, a
dry and more summerlike day can be expected.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area
as a ridge builds over the western states and a shortwave pushes
down along the Northern Rockies Friday morning. This will push a
cool front down into the forecast area creating stability in the
airmass. Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than
today`s readings over the northern half of the forecast area,
while areas south will actually be warmer as the cool front slowly
drops south. Little to no storm activity is expected with forecast
soundings over the plains quite stable. The exception will be over
the foothills and up the east side of the Divide where a few
showers and isolated thunderstorm may occur. A stronger push of
cool air will come Saturday as high surface pressure sinks south
on the back of the shortwave. Temperatures across the plains
should be about 5 degrees cooler, but will stay similar if not
warm slightly over the mountains. This will help destabilize the
airmass over the high terrain for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The upper ridge will nudge closer on Sunday with high surface
pressure moving east over the Great Plains. This and warmer
temperatures will allow for a slight chance for the diurnal
convection over the high terrain to move out over the plains.
Models are diverging with the cutoff low that pushes onshore over
California on Sunday then gets caught into the northerly energy
stream Monday. However, expect scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with temperatures warming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 2 2016
VFR conditions will persist through the period. Patchy fog
possible to the north and east of KDEN toward KGXY til about 14Z.
Any threat of an isolated late afternoon or evening storm should
be confined to the mountains or Wyoming border area. Fairly normal
and light diurnal wind patterns will prevail around 10 knots or
less.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...
Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.
Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.
Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns. On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.
Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat. It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well. High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.
On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV. There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains. Highs both days are expected to be above average.
Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave. There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN