Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/31/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region tonight
into Tuesday. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in
control into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity
levels.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The last of the scattered showers are exiting the Berkshires and
NW CT and leaving some lingering isolated showers in NW CT
through the rest of this evening. The clearing trend across the
area will continue through the night and just some minor
adjustments to rain chances...sky cover and temperatures through
the night. Fog potential still in question if winds can go calm
later tonight and there are still some questions about
that...especially with dew points gradually drying out through
the night.
Temperatures will be cooler than recent nights as drier air work
in from the west, with lows forecast to be in the lower 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday looks to be another warm day across the region, but due
to deep mixing and gusty west-northwest winds with comfortable
humidity levels. It will not feel as muggy as the past several
days with dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Wind gusts of 20-25
mph will be common with a decent pressure gradient in place.
Winds will decrease Tuesday night as high pressure builds
eastward into Quebec. With a dry air mass in place this will
result in cool mid temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Tranquil
weather will persist Wednesday into Wednesday night, as high
pressure drifts eastward across Quebec and northern New England.
Temperatures look to be slightly above normal during this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General upper level zonal flow with small upper impulses tracking
through the zonal flow...with considerable timing and track
differences in sources of long range guidance and ensembles. There
is a broad consensus for two upper impulses...once around Thursday
night and Friday...and another potentially stronger upper
impulse... potentially developing into an upper low...possibly
developing over the Great Lakes and slowly approach later next
weekend and into the beginning of next week.
So...dry weather Thursday ahead of one small piece of upper
energy. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The upper impulse is
quite broad and of low amplitude but indications are a gradual
cooling of boundary layer temperatures and broad low level
convergence supporting scattered showers and maybe isolated
thunderstorms Friday with highs in the 70s...but around 70 higher
terrain.
Some broad flat upper ridging timed for sometime between Friday
night and Sunday morning...again with details not clear because of
spread in sources of guidance. Keeping isolated showers in the
forecast but could very well be dry with periods of sun and
clouds. Highs Saturday in the 70s to around 80.
The aforementioned strong upper energy...possible an upper low
forms around the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday and slowly
approaches with increasing clouds and chances for
showers...perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. More details will
be available as we get nearer. Highs Sunday in the 70s to around
80. Highs Monday with prospects for better coverage of
showers...in the upper 60s to mid 70s...some mid 60s in higher
terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across western and central NY this
afternoon. This front will move across eastern NY and western New
England late this afternoon into the overnight period. High
pressure will ridge in late tonight into tomorrow with fair and
dry weather returning.
VFR conditions have returned to all the TAF sites in the wake of
the pre-frontal trough this morning. KPOU has now become VFR and
the skies have started to clear. Expect SCT-BKN cumulus in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range and SCT-BKN cirrus with some isold-sct showers
and thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF south and east btwn
20Z/MON to 00Z/TUE. The best chance of thunderstorms will be at
KPSF and KPOU and a tempo group was used from 21Z-24Z for MVFR
conditions...though brief lapses to IFR VSBYS are possible.
Further north...VCSH groups were used. The cold front moves
through in the evening...and the skies clear.
The dewpt boundary lags a bit...so moisture left in the boundary
layer coupled with clearing skies...and light to calm winds will
allow for some MVFR/IFR mist or fog potentially at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
especially btwn 06Z-12Z. Enough mixing in the boundary layer may
preclude any mist at KALB. VFR conditions should return after 12Z
with strong subsidence and deeper mixing in the wake of the front.
The winds will be south to southwest at 6-12 kts this afternoon
with some gusts close to 20 kts at KGFL. The winds will become
light to calm btwn 00Z-04Z. The winds will increase quickly from
the west to northwest at 5-10 kts from 12Z onward.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move eastward across the region late this
afternoon into this evening, bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly from the Capital District south and east. A
cooler and drier air mass will then be ushered in behind the cold
front tonight into Tuesday. High pressure over southeast Canada
will remain in control into Thursday with dry conditions and
comfortable humidity levels.
Relative humidity values will increase to between 80 and 100
percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 30 to 40
percent Tuesday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 75
and 90 percent Saturday night.
Winds tonight will be southwest around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
west- northwest around 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph on
Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly south and east of
Albany will persist into the evening hours. Some of the storms
could produce local downpours. They could produce some ponding and
maybe some minor flooding in urban, poor drainage, and low lying
areas. There should be minimal impacts on main stem rivers.
With the passage of a cold front, dry weather will return
overnight into Tuesday. High pressure will build in with dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chance
for showers will return late in the week as a frontal boundary
approaches.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
849 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then
retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated forecast to lower pops for many areas, but increased them
this evening over some of the NW areas as a slow moving cold
front and outflow boundaries interact with sufficient SBCAPE to
produce showers and scattered thunderstorms. Convection should
diminish as the evening progress with the loss of instability.
Other concern is the coverage and density of fog. Visibilities
have actually improved over the past hour over eastern long island
where fog had reduced the visibility to locally as low as a
quarter mile. Wouldn`t be surprised to see the visibility reduced
again as the evening progresses with fairly light winds, moist low
levels, and moisture pooling along the weakening cold front. Might
need to eventually need to issue an SPS to address patchy dense
fog over the eastern zones at some point this evening.
Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.
In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.
Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.
Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.
A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.
Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early
Tuesday.
Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to
the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning,
eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The duration of
IFR and below remains uncertain tonight as well as whether or not
this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR
for city and nearby terminals. Guidance is generally hinting that
this will return...but again the extent remains in question. As
winds shift to the sw aft midnight climatology indicates improvement
at city terminals with IFR or lower conds e...so tried to indicate
this idea into the forecast.
Showers/tstms have been weakening as they move into the area...so
have maintained the vcsh at western terminals this eve. Some
showers from remnants of Bonnie may impact KGON and possibly KISP
late this eve and overnight.
moderate to high confidence in wind forecast. sea breeze develops
at the coast tue aftn.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: occasional gusts up to 20 kt through rest of
eve push. timing of IFR may be several hours off this eve.
KLGA TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.
KEWR TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.
KTEB TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.
KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR to IFR possible this eve. Timing of
seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue.
KISP TAF Comments: End of IFR conds may be +/- 1-2 hours tue
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Dense fog advisory
continues through the entire night.
As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.
For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.
Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt
and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday,
building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25
kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday,
however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5
ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely
through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday
night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result
in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening.
Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-
350.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
848 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then
retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Deep moisture feed occurs along the eastern seaboard ahead of
weak upper trough, and surface cold front tonight. With partial
sunshine and increased instability nw of NYC, showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front will make their way toward the
area this evening. Not sure how well this area holds together due
to weak shear, along with waning daytime instability. Will
continue with chance pops along the front tonight, and higher
coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms remains just
offshore of Long Island as well, along the deep moisture axis from
the Carolinas.
Patchy fog will develop, and is in fact continuing along the
southeast coast of Long Island.
Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches through this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.
In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.
Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.
Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.
A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.
Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early
Tuesday.
Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to
the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning,
eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The duration of
IFR and below remains uncertain tonight as well as whether or not
this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR
for city and nearby terminals. Guidance is generally hinting that
this will return...but again the extent remains in question. As
winds shift to the sw aft midnight climatology indicates improvement
at city terminals with IFR or lower conds e...so tried to indicate
this idea into the forecast.
Showers/tstms have been weakening as they move into the area...so
have maintained the vcsh at western terminals this eve. Some
showers from remnants of Bonnie may impact KGON and possibly KISP
late this eve and overnight.
moderate to high confidence in wind forecast. sea breeze develops
at the coast tue aftn.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: occasional gusts up to 20 kt through rest of
eve push. timing of IFR may be several hours off this eve.
KLGA TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.
KEWR TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.
KTEB TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.
KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR to IFR possible this eve. Timing of
seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue.
KISP TAF Comments: End of IFR conds may be +/- 1-2 hours tue
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Extended the dense fog
advisory for the eastern waters tonight.
As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.
For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.
Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt
and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday,
building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25
kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday,
however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5
ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely
through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday
night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result
in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening.
Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-
350.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
159 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will
cross this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 116 PM EDT...A cold front continues to approach from
western/central NY and the eastern Great Lakes Region early this
afternoon. Clouds have been eroding across eastern portions of the
area, which were mostly cloudy through much of the morning.
Showers still have not developed as of 1 pm, so delayed timing of
onset of any precip until after 2 pm.
Sfc dewpts continue to be in the 60s ahead of the cold front, and
some destabilization will occur with the NAM indicating SBCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. The deep shear /0-6 km/ is in the 30-35
kt range. Some multicells or a multicell line may fire from around
or just southeast of the Capital Region...southern VT...and the
eastern Catskills between 2-5 pm. The latest HRRR indicates the
best activity will be around and south of the Capital Region,
focusing more in the mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT from
5-8 pm. Some locally heavy rainfall is still possible with PWATS
in the 1.25-1.75" range. Gusty winds will be a threat and perhaps
a rogue severe storm or two with 50 kt or greater winds. The
limiter is weak mid level lapse rates...and perhaps limited time
for southern NY to destabilize. The marginal risk continues to
look reasonable for this afternoon from SPC. Highs will generally
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few mid 80s will be possible in
the Hudson River Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Well folks, this will be my last AFD I will ever issue. It is hard
to believe the time has come for me to retire. It has been a
pleasure serving the public and community since April 4, 1995, the
first day I worked at Albany.
The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.
Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.
Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.
Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.
Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.
By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.
Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.
The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
region.
While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.
By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.
Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across western and central NY this
afternoon. This front will move across eastern NY and western New
England late this afternoon into the overnight period. High
pressure will ridge in late tonight into tomorrow with fair and
dry weather returning.
VFR conditions have returned to all the TAF sites in the wake of
the pre-frontal trough this morning. KPOU has now become VFR and
the skies have started to clear. Expect SCT-BKN cumulus in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range and SCT-BKN cirrus with some isold-sct
showers and thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF south and east
btwn 20Z/MON to 00Z/TUE. The best chance of thunderstorms will be
at KPSF and KPOU and a tempo group was used from 21Z-24Z for MVFR
conditions...though brief lapses to IFR VSBYS are possible.
Further north...VCSH groups were used. The cold front moves
through in the evening...and the skies clear.
The dewpt boundary lags a bit...so moisture left in the boundary
layer coupled with clearing skies...and light to calm winds will
allow for some MVFR/IFR mist or fog potentially at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
especially btwn 06Z-12Z. Enough mixing in the boundary layer may
preclude any mist at KALB. VFR conditions should return after 12Z
with strong subsidence and deeper mixing in the wake of the front.
The winds will be south to southwest at 6-12 kts this afternoon
with some gusts close to 20 kts at KGFL. The winds will become
light to calm btwn 00Z-04Z. The winds will increase quickly from
the west to northwest at 5-10 kts from 12Z onward.
Outlook...
Tuesday-Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.
A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.
Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.
More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
streams.
With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
08Z profiler data shows relatively modest mid level flow over
the central plains as water vapor imagery shows a quasi-zonal
flow over the state. Slow moving upper level low pressure systems
were noted over MN and southern CA and a closed low was seen over
British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was weakening over
the upper Midwest while another area of low pressure formed near the
TX big bend.
For today the forecast is going to depend on mesoscale features as
models show modest mid and upper flow persisting over the forecast
area. Profiler data from KICT and KTLX show low level winds becoming
more southerly allowing from moisture over the southern plains to
begin moving back into southwestern KS. Models prog some isentropic
upglide over southwest KS and satellite shows an area of AC where
the models have the upglide. This area could end up being where
convection initiates this morning, setting the course for the rest
of the day. The NAM seems to favor this idea with a possible MCV
drifting east along the KS/OK boarder. However the GFS and HRRR cast
some doubt on this idea. In any case, there does not appear to be an
obvious boundary for low level convergence to force a parcel up and
a lack of a well defined shortwave makes it difficult to highlight
one area over another for precip chances today. If storms are to
form over southwestern KS this morning, the resulting outflow could
provide the low level focus for additional development later in the
day. In general the forecast favors precip chances more across the
southern half of the forecast area since mid level flow is nearly
zonal and the low level moisture advection appears to be south of
the area. Model progs show reasonable instability developing through
the day so there is a conditional chance for precip. I just don`t
have much confidence in what that conditions may end up being. 0-6km
shear is expected to remain rather weak through the day so chances
for organized convection appear low. So there may just be pop up
storms to deal with during the heating of the day. With this in
mind, have kept POPs in the 20 to 30 percent range today. With
decent insolation today, highs are expected to warm into the lower
80s as forecast soundings mix the boundary layer above 850MB.
For tonight, generally only carry a slight chance for precip
expecting the boundary layer to begin stabilizing with the loss of
heating and again no obvious wave within the flow. The low level jet
is progged to set up over the western half of the state with speeds
generally between 30 and 40 KTS. So there isn`t much of a warm air
advection signal for elevated storms tonight either. Lows are
expected to remain in the lower and mid 60s as southerly low level
flow prevails overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Sfc lee trough develops over western KS in response to the incoming
shortwave trough from the northwest on Monday afternoon. Given the
warm and moist airmass in place, latest guidance is showing
difficulty in locating the exact source of forcing and appears to be
overdoing qpf amounts, especially the ECMWF. Forecast sides closer
to the GFS and NAM solutions which develops scattered showers and
storms during the late afternoon. Confidence in precip increases
overnight Monday as the wave nears, developing an mcs over central
NE, tracking through the area through Tuesday. Likely pops were
placed here with PWAT values over an inch at times. Assuming lower
flash flood guidance values which is dependent on whether we see
rainfall Sunday or Monday, localized flooding could once again
occur.
Models clear out the trough Wednesday evening with cooler and drier
northwest flow in its wake. Clear skies and light northerly winds
drops temps below average values in the lower 70s for highs and lows
in the 50s through Friday. Upper ridge continues to dominate the
Inter Mountain west through the weekend as the CWA resides on the
eastern edge. Shortwave troughs traversing the eastern edge may
bring chances for thunderstorms Saturday evening into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The isolated
thunderstorms should remain west and south of the terminals.
Terminal MHK may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm late this
afternoon and early evening.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms may expand in coverage some this
morning...primarily impacting KMLC and possibly KTUL/KRVS.
Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys likely in and near storms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Convective complex moving across north central Texas will limit
warm advection/moisture return into eastern OK this morning. Most
of the operations models have had a poor handle on these storms,
though the HRRR in last couple of runs has finally acknowledged
their presence and, as such, has given up on the idea of a
developing complex in western Kansas that would impact parts of
the area later today. A few elevated cells trying to develop on
north flank and may see this move into southeast OK early this
morning. Probability of additional storms this afternoon will be
dependent on the eventual fate of north Texas complex, which most
guidance tends to weaken later this morning, but this is far from
a given at this point. Overall, the highest chance still appears
to be over the western half of the forecast area through tonight.
Additional weak and subtle forcing for convection remains in
play through Monday before an upper trough swings through the
northern plains and a more substantial jet streak lifts out of
Mexico into the southern plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. This
period will offer the highest chance of precip with the attendant
threat of heavy rainfall in some areas. Frontal boundary will
bring a drier and cooler airmass to the area by Thursday with
precip chances ending and below normal temperatures to end the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 66 84 66 / 30 30 40 30
FSM 88 67 85 67 / 30 20 40 30
MLC 85 66 84 67 / 40 30 40 30
BVO 85 63 83 64 / 30 30 40 30
FYV 84 62 82 63 / 20 20 40 30
BYV 85 62 83 62 / 20 20 40 30
MKO 84 65 83 66 / 40 30 40 30
MIO 84 63 85 65 / 20 20 40 30
F10 83 65 83 66 / 50 30 40 30
HHW 86 68 86 67 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
...Increased potential for thunderstorms for the SE Mts/Adjacent
Plains Tuesday...
Forecast area will be under weak forcing today ahead of trough axis
out west connecting northern stream upper low moving through through
northern U.S. Rockies and the desert southwest upper low. Showers
and thunderstorms have fired off over the mountains...and are
progged by models to continue eastward across the plains through the
late afternoon/early evening. Surface low centered just north of
KLHX has kept winds more southerly to southwesterly across the
southern I-25 corridor and southern plains, and HRRR seems more
inclined to mix out low level moisture today vs yesterday. However,
where southeasterly winds maintain...could still see some lower 50
dew points...and CAPE values near 2000 J/kg through the early
afternoon until mixing drops these off during the evening. Weak mid
level winds today suggest deep layer shear may be on the weak side
for organized supercell thunderstorms...but certainly a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm or two will be possible across the
southeast plains to the east of KLHX. Main threat will be gusty
winds to around 60 mph...but some hail up to 1 inch in diameter will
also be possible with any initial intense updrafts. Activity will
shift eastward into KS overnight.
Northern stream upper Low will move eastward into the Dakotas
tonight sending a cold front through southeast Colorado. Initially
wind shift looks more thunderstorm outflow dominated this
evening...but a secondary surge is expected after 09z with the main
front. This will push cooler air into SE CO for Tuesday with winds
shifting around from an easterly upslope direction during the
afternoon. Question for Tuesday will be how much low level moisture
will be retained behind the front and how much instability will be
present. One of two scenarios could play out. If dew points drop
off into the lower 40s this will significantly cut back on CAPE
across the plains, but would likely maintain a narrow ribbon of up
to 1000 J/kg of CAPE over the southeast mountains. However if
surface dew points can maintain in the upper 40s and 50s...then this
may be enough to keep 1000-1500+ J/kg of CAPE across much of the
southeast plains. Still looks like main threat will be for
widespread showers and thunderstorms for the southeast mountains
initially during the afternoon with the plains being capped. . Best
chance for a few strong storms or two will be over the mountains,
particularly south of highway 50. This area is most likely to remain
under low level theta-e axis with southern border counties also
having some potential for some strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Will have to watch the
burn scars in the SE mountains tomorrow afternoon as heavy rainfall
from thunderstorms could produce some localized flash flooding for
these more flood prone areas. For now think the risk is too
localized to warrant flash flood watches at this point, but this
will be re-assessed as the time frame gets resolved by higher res
models. Snow levels will remain rather high through the day
tomorrow, most likely above 11.5kft with higher peaks picking up a
quick couple inches of snow during the afternoon. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
...Heavy Rain Possible Tue Night...
Main concern in the extended comes early...Tue night...then things
gradually settle down as a high amplitude ridge begins to build over
the Rockies.
Tue night...we get a good shot of upslope over the Ern CO Plains, as
a 1020 ridge builds Over the High Plains on the backside of a
shortwave system moving through the Dakotas and southern Canada.
Concurrently...a weak low pressure system will track through
southern AZ and NM. This will create a favorable upslope regime for
our eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. NCEP models are in good
agreement with between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of QPF over this region Tue
night into Wed morning. Intensity level will be waning, so flash
flood threat looks limited. However, still the possibility of some
heavier cells impacting urban zones and burn scars, so will have to
keep an eye on trend through the night into Wed morning. Heaviest
amounts will be over Pikes Peak area and Wet mountains. Have
boosted POPs to categorical for these zones, and spread POPs a bit
farther to the east. Most of the I-25 corridor should see wetting
rains. Far eastern Plains a bit more in question, but at least a
chance of some rain for the areas farther east. For the mountains,
snow levels may get down to 10000 feet or so, but heaviest snow
accums will be above 11000 feet. Currently have about 4-8 inches of
snow for the summit of Pikes Peak, and 3-6 for the Wets and Sangres.
Considered an advisory for these high elevation zones, but given the
high snow levels and relatively brief window of opportunity for
higher QPF, will hold off. Travelers to the high country should be
prepared for winter conditions through early Wed.
Should see a bit of a respite late Wed morning into early afternoon,
before another round of showers and a few storms hits Wed afternoon
and eve, with persistent but weakening upslope through Wed night.
This round does not look as heavy or widespread as the earlier one,
however. After Wed, the upper ridge begins to build strongly over
the Central Rockies, and temps will be on the increase over our
area. Could see temps approach 90 degrees for the plains by the
latter part of the week. Some moisture trapped under the ridge will
keep a daily threat of showers and storms going each afternoon and
eve, but primarily over the higher terrain and surrounding areas.
Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
Winds are still expected to increase to around 15 to 25 knots
form the north by early Tuesday morning as a front moves through.
MVFR to local IFR CIGS are anticipated over the Palmer Divide
region and will be capable of developing into the KCOS area by
early Tuesday morning, depending on the strength of the northerly
downslope winds. In addition, increasing threats of SHRA and TSRA
are anticipated at the KCOS and KPUB taf sites from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night with CIGS expected to drop into the
IFR category at times during this time-frame. At KALS, generally
VFR conditions should be noted during the next 24 hours, although
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
335 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...
Another round of afternoon thunderstorms expected today. The CWA
is currently under weak upper level ridge influences from high
pressure thats centered over Mexico. Separate troughs are located
over the northern Rockies and Desert Southwest. Surface high
overhead has shifted offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Convection will once again be driven by daytime heating and likely
initiate along seabreeze boundaries. Movement for the most part
will be dictated by outflow boundaries but model soundings show
there might be enough mid level wind to produce a slow eastward
movement of storms. Also of note in those soundings are a repeat
of an inverted-v in the lower levels and wetbulb height of around
11kft. Those characteristics of the sounding would suggest the
possibility of marginally severe thunderstorms with downbursts and
smaller hail to be the main threats. For actual rain chance
forecast, 2/3`s of the area have around 30% while the far western
zones are closer to 20 as those locations are closer to the ridge
and subjected to more subsidence. Above normal temperatures will
persist with highs in the lower 90s. Movement of the upper ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico will aide in "shielding" the CWA from
convection being able to initiate, at least not widespread enough
to even have any mention of rain in the forecast except possibly
on the outer fridge of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...
The southern of those 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually
track east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central
Texas by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper
ridge in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result
in a noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across
the forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend which will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus have increased rain chances to nearly 70% on Saturday and 50s
to 60 for Sunday.
Early next week is becoming more uncertain. The GFS suggests the
broad trough passing over the southeastern CONUS will progress far
enough south to shift all activity offshore and nearly completely
absorbing the southern trough. The ECMWF keeps these features more
separate and the southern trough gets left behind which would keep
rain in place over the local area. So haven`t made any changes to
the forecast beyond Sunday.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside sh/ts coverage today which will
dissipate shortly after dark. Some reduced vis and lower ceilings
can be expected in rain cooled areas by Wed morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure over the north gulf to maintain light
winds and low seas for much of the week.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 67 90 69 / 30 30 10 10
BTR 92 69 90 69 / 20 20 10 10
ASD 92 70 90 71 / 30 30 10 10
MSY 91 73 88 72 / 30 30 10 10
GPT 91 73 88 73 / 20 20 10 10
PQL 91 68 88 68 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail the next 24-30 hours. The exceptions
are KMCB and KHUM where some MVFR conditions due to vsby
restrictions in light fog are forecast later tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Only isolated SHRA/TSRA are expected Tuesday
afternoon, so there is no mention in the TAFS at this time.
22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
Discussion...
Not much change in the forecast this afternoon. High pressure
still in place over the area. Afternoon showers and storms have
developed over the forecast area today as we had a relatively low
convective temperature this afternoon so storms were easy to fire
along the lake and seabreezes this afternoon. We can expect more
of the same over the next few days. Again we climb into the upper
80s and lower 90s for Tuesday. Our convective temperature Tuesday
looks to be in the 87 to 89 degree range so if we hit that mark in
temperature the atmosphere will be more readily able to produce
storms. Any afternoon storms will have the potential to produce
heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Rain chances and coverage
goes up the latter half of the week and into the weekend as a cold
front approaches the area. Looking at the model guidance it looks
as if a southern stream shortwave approaches the area with the
front on Thursday. This will help shower and storm development and
it will take northern stream energy to help sweep everything out
of the area. That relief does not come until at least Sunday. So
with that in mind will carry 40 to 60 percent pops for Friday
through Sunday. As long as that boundary is in place there will be
chances of showers and storms especially during the daytime hours.
13/MH
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside of seabreeze induced tsra/shra
coverage this evening, which should dissipate shortly after 02z.
downburst gust potential 30-35 kt prior to 00z. similar situation
appears to be on tap for tuesday with convection igniting on trigger
temperature in the upper 80s and lower 90s along gulf and lake
breeze boundary interactions. 24/RR
MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure over the north gulf to maintain light
winds and low seas for much of the week. 24/RR
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 93 69 92 / 30 20 20 20
BTR 69 92 69 91 / 30 20 20 20
ASD 70 92 71 91 / 30 20 20 10
MSY 72 91 73 91 / 30 20 20 10
GPT 72 91 73 90 / 30 20 20 10
PQL 68 91 72 90 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.AVIATION...
Cluster of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms were
affecting ktxk tonight, with the activity gradually moving to the
Northeast. Do not expect this precipitation activity to remain
there all night given its` slow Northeastward translation, but
additional development is not out of the question. Will therefore
hold on to -SHRA VCTS for several more hours. Otherwise, once the
showers finally dissipates/exits the region, another round of VFR
to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 923 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
outflow boundary bisecting area from ne half to sw half. leaving
in isold pops ne half given current isold activity which began to
diminish at sunset. leaving out pops sw half of area. 0z sounding
at kshv not impressive for convection either overnight. Expect
temps to fall to near current dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s, from
current temps mainly near the mid 70s attm./vii/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.
The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 88 70 86 / 20 20 30 40
MLU 69 89 69 87 / 20 20 20 30
DEQ 66 84 67 82 / 20 30 50 70
TXK 67 87 68 82 / 20 30 40 60
ELD 67 89 66 84 / 20 30 30 40
TYR 69 86 69 83 / 10 20 40 70
GGG 67 87 68 84 / 10 20 40 60
LFK 67 87 68 85 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29/07/24
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
907 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The late afternoon/early evening convection in central Louisiana
has lifted out of our region. Current forecast looks good with no
updates anticipated tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
AVIATION...
Contg to see hi clds movg in fm the w this eve. Cld decks
running around 040 to 060 w/ aftn dvlpmnt but this will fall
apart aftr ss. Looking for vfr wx to hold thru midnight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Earlier upper air analysis showed the mid/upper level ridge a
little weaker today with some height falls, as weak short wave,
noted on water vapor imagery from southern Oklahoma to lower
Texas, moves eastward. Latest integrated precipitable water values
from GPS-MET data, indicates better moisture also in play today
with values between 1.5 and 1.6 inches. With max daytime heating,
a few showers and thunderstorms are developing, mainly near sea
breeze and near Atchafalaya Basin convergence. This activity will
continue until early evening, with the loss of daytime heating.
Expect another fair and stable night, with the possibility of
some light patchy fog near sunrise.
Upper level ridging looks to be stronger again on Tuesday as short
wave exits the region. Therefore, hot and humid day, with very
limited chances for showers, and if any do develop, it will be
during the max heating time frame.
By mid week, northern stream trough will deepen some and help push
an upper level low to the east and begin to weaken upper level
ridge. As the northern stream trough departs on Thursday, it will
leave behind the upper level low over western Texas.
This cut off low, will meander slowly to the east across Texas
from the end of the week into the weekend. With no cap and low
convective temperatures, there will be high rain chances starting
late Thursday over southeast Texas, then over the entire forecast
area from Friday through the weekend.
This scenario usually means the possibility of heavy rainfall for
portions of the forecast area. Details this far out are hard to
pinpoint. However, progs do show deep Gulf moisture moving into
the region with Precipitable Water values between 1.75 and 2
inches, and Mean Relative Humidity values over 80 percent. Flow
aloft will become more divergent as upper level low nears to
provide lift to get activity going and enhance it. Progs also show
weak mid level winds and low bulk shear numbers from 0-6km, which
could mean slow storm movement, or training if any low level
mesoscale boundaries form. Just some of the ingredients needed for
the heavy rainfall.
Early next week, upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the
western U.S. with upper level trough developing over the eastern
U.S. This would place the forecast area in a drier northwest flow
aloft, that would help shear out upper low and push deeper
moisture to the east and south.
Rua
MARINE...
Weak surface ridge continues across the coastal waters this
afternoon with mainly light and variable winds. Onshore winds will
be a little bit stronger near shore and for the coastal lakes and
bays through early evening with a developing sea breeze.
For the remainder of the period, center of the surface ridge will
move slightly to the east and over the north central and northeast
Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for mainly light onshore winds,
and in turn, relatively low seas, to prevail.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 91 69 90 / 20 20 10 20
LCH 70 89 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 72 91 71 89 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 71 89 72 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
648 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.AVIATION...
Contg to see hi clds movg in fm the w this eve. Cld decks
running around 040 to 060 w/ aftn dvlpmnt but this will fall
apart aftr ss. Looking for vfr wx to hold thru midnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Earlier upper air analysis showed the mid/upper level ridge a
little weaker today with some height falls, as weak short wave,
noted on water vapor imagery from southern Oklahoma to lower
Texas, moves eastward. Latest integrated precipitable water values
from GPS-MET data, indicates better moisture also in play today
with values between 1.5 and 1.6 inches. With max daytime heating,
a few showers and thunderstorms are developing, mainly near sea
breeze and near Atchafalaya Basin convergence. This activity will
continue until early evening, with the loss of daytime heating.
Expect another fair and stable night, with the possibility of
some light patchy fog near sunrise.
Upper level ridging looks to be stronger again on Tuesday as short
wave exits the region. Therefore, hot and humid day, with very
limited chances for showers, and if any do develop, it will be
during the max heating time frame.
By mid week, northern stream trough will deepen some and help push
an upper level low to the east and begin to weaken upper level
ridge. As the northern stream trough departs on Thursday, it will
leave behind the upper level low over western Texas.
This cut off low, will meander slowly to the east across Texas
from the end of the week into the weekend. With no cap and low
convective temperatures, there will be high rain chances starting
late Thursday over southeast Texas, then over the entire forecast
area from Friday through the weekend.
This scenario usually means the possibility of heavy rainfall for
portions of the forecast area. Details this far out are hard to
pinpoint. However, progs do show deep Gulf moisture moving into
the region with Precipitable Water values between 1.75 and 2
inches, and Mean Relative Humidity values over 80 percent. Flow
aloft will become more divergent as upper level low nears to
provide lift to get activity going and enhance it. Progs also show
weak mid level winds and low bulk shear numbers from 0-6km, which
could mean slow storm movement, or training if any low level
mesoscale boundaries form. Just some of the ingredients needed for
the heavy rainfall.
Early next week, upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the
western U.S. with upper level trough developing over the eastern
U.S. This would place the forecast area in a drier northwest flow
aloft, that would help shear out upper low and push deeper
moisture to the east and south.
Rua
MARINE...
Weak surface ridge continues across the coastal waters this
afternoon with mainly light and variable winds. Onshore winds will
be a little bit stronger near shore and for the coastal lakes and
bays through early evening with a developing sea breeze.
For the remainder of the period, center of the surface ridge will
move slightly to the east and over the north central and northeast
Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for mainly light onshore winds,
and in turn, relatively low seas, to prevail.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 91 69 90 / 20 20 10 20
LCH 70 89 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 72 91 71 89 / 20 20 10 10
BPT 71 89 72 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms intermittently
affecting ktxk, keld and kmlu early this evening. Can not rule out
the other TAF sites getting some rain later this evening as an
outflow boundary pushing southwest thus nearing kshv has aided to
generate isolated shower activity. Have therefore elected to hold
on to either VCSH, VCTS, -SHRA in one form or another for all TAF
sites until several hours after sunset. Once the convection
diminishes, another round of VFR to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS
will be possible overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.
The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
AVIATION...
Abundant mid and high level cloud cover this morning has
suppressed cu development across much of the region with the
exception being the eastern half of La. Already starting to see
some shra development east of the SHV terminal and west of the MLU
terminal where this cu has been towering. For the 18z taf
package...have decided to prevail VCTS at both the ELD and MLU
terminals for the remainder of the afternoon through the evening
hours. Further west...uncertainty exists given the mid and high
level cloud cover but there is a remnant MCV somewhere underneath
this cloud cover north of the I-20 corridor in NE TX which could
provide the lift necessary for at least widely scattered tsra
later today/this evening. Will have to handle this with an AMD if
necessary.
Winds will be light and variable except where shra/tsra develops.
Made mention of some vsby restrictions towards the predawn hours
on Tue assuming that we lose the mid and high cloud cover which
the newest progs suggest will happen. Otherwise...expect a growing
cu field across the region through the mid and late morning hours
on Tue.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 88 70 86 / 20 20 30 40
MLU 69 89 69 87 / 20 20 20 30
DEQ 66 84 67 82 / 30 30 50 70
TXK 67 87 68 82 / 30 30 40 60
ELD 67 89 66 84 / 20 30 30 40
TYR 69 86 69 83 / 20 20 40 70
GGG 67 87 68 84 / 20 20 40 60
LFK 67 87 68 85 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29/24/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.
The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
AVIATION...
Abundant mid and high level cloud cover this morning has
suppressed cu development across much of the region with the
exception being the eastern half of La. Already starting to see
some shra development east of the SHV terminal and west of the MLU
terminal where this cu has been towering. For the 18z taf
package...have decided to prevail VCTS at both the ELD and MLU
terminals for the remainder of the afternoon through the evening
hours. Further west...uncertainty exists given the mid and high
level cloud cover but there is a remnant MCV somewhere underneath
this cloud cover north of the I-20 corridor in NE TX which could
provide the lift necessary for at least widely scattered tsra
later today/this evening. Will have to handle this with an AMD if
necessary.
Winds will be light and variable except where shra/tsra develops.
Made mention of some vsby restrictions towards the predawn hours
on Tue assuming that we lose the mid and high cloud cover which
the newest progs suggest will happen. Otherwise...expect a growing
cu field across the region through the mid and late morning hours
on Tue.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 88 70 86 / 20 20 30 40
MLU 69 89 69 87 / 20 20 20 30
DEQ 66 84 67 82 / 30 30 50 70
TXK 67 87 68 82 / 30 30 40 60
ELD 67 89 66 84 / 20 30 30 40
TYR 69 86 69 83 / 20 20 40 70
GGG 67 87 68 84 / 20 20 40 60
LFK 67 87 68 85 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected all terminals through 31/18Z though
some brief showers and isolated thunderstorms may briefly reduce
to MVFR between 18Z and 01Z. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 803 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Moisture is back up a bit in the sounding this morning with PW at
1.64 inches. A subsidence inversion has formed at 950 mb though
this cap is expected to mix out with peak heating today as
convective temperature is reached. 925 mb temperature is near the
daily max in the climatology at 22.2 C. Still with the high
pressure in place local boundaries will be needed to provide the
lift... which we will have from the lake/sea breeze. Yesterday was
nearly dry across the area though scattered late afternoon airmass
storms are expected today. Some could be strong with mixed layer
CAPE near 1800 J/KG and modest mid level lapse rates near 6.0
C/KM. Winds are light and variable to 500 mb then the flow
becomes northwesterly aloft.
Krautmann
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...
The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern
with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of
the Rockies. Surface high overhead will lead to light and variable
winds today. Convection through Tuesday will diurnal with
scattered coverage beginning late morning and carrying over into
the late afternoon hours. Weak flow pattern means storm movement
will be erratic and outflow driven. Model soundings show a very
pronounced inverted-V, so should have some fairly gusty conditions
in the more intense storms. Above normal temperatures will persist
with highs around 90 degrees.
LONG TERM...
The southern of 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually track
east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central Texas
by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper ridge
in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result in a
noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend when will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus kept previous forecast of around 50 percent pops through
Sunday.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
FG and low ceilings at HUM this morning but other sites should stay
above 2sm this morning. VFR at all sites for at least the majority
of the day. sh/ts activity would be the only variable that could
cause IFR conditions but that would mainly be for BTR and HUM. If
any showers do occur near or at any terminal today, fog would be
likely overnight.
MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters. Variable winds of generally less than 10 knots will persist
today. Seas will be 2 feet or less. A cold front will move close to
the area by next weekend, but no other major issues seen over the
marine environment through the week.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 69 92 70 / 30 10 30 10
BTR 92 70 91 70 / 30 10 30 10
ASD 91 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 91 73 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 90 73 90 74 / 30 10 20 10
PQL 91 72 90 73 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
803 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Moisture is back up a bit in the sounding this morning with PW at
1.64 inches. A subsidence inversion has formed at 950 mb though
this cap is expected to mix out with peak heating today as
convective temperature is reached. 925 mb temperature is near the
daily max in the climatology at 22.2 C. Still with the high
pressure in place local boundaries will be needed to provide the
lift... which we will have from the lake/sea breeze. Yesterday was
nearly dry across the area though scattered late afternoon airmass
storms are expected today. Some could be strong with mixed layer
CAPE near 1800 J/KG and modest mid level lapse rates near 6.0
C/KM. Winds are light and variable to 500 mb then the flow
becomes northwesterly aloft.
Krautmann
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...
The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern
with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of
the Rockies. Surface high overhead will lead to light and variable
winds today. Convection through Tuesday will diurnal with
scattered coverage beginning late morning and carrying over into
the late afternoon hours. Weak flow pattern means storm movement
will be erratic and outflow driven. Model soundings show a very
pronounced inverted-V, so should have some fairly gusty conditions
in the more intense storms. Above normal temperatures will persist
with highs around 90 degrees.
LONG TERM...
The southern of 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually track
east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central Texas
by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper ridge
in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result in a
noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend when will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus kept previous forecast of around 50 percent pops through
Sunday.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
FG and low ceilings at HUM this morning but other sites should stay
above 2sm this morning. VFR at all sites for at least the majority
of the day. sh/ts activity would be the only variable that could
cause IFR conditions but that would mainly be for BTR and HUM. If
any showers do occur near or at any terminal today, fog would be
likely overnight.
MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters. Variable winds of generally less than 10 knots will persist
today. Seas will be 2 feet or less. A cold front will move close to
the area by next weekend, but no other major issues seen over the
marine environment through the week.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 69 92 70 / 30 10 30 10
BTR 92 70 91 70 / 30 10 30 10
ASD 91 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 91 73 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 90 73 90 74 / 30 10 20 10
PQL 91 72 90 73 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
752 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.AVIATION...
For the 30/12Z terminal forecast expecting sites to have brief
mvfr categories in mist/br with visibility restrictions of 3-5
statute miles and in the showers and thunderstorms over parts of
East and Northeast Texas. Convection will be slowly eroding in the
mid to late morning for the Texas and Oklahoma, and Southwest
Arkansas region. VFR conditions are expected to remain through
much of the overnight hours with MVFR categories possible late.
Surface winds will be light and variable to South 5-10 knots.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The MCS, while slowly weakening, has persisted and should be
moving in the western fringes of the CWA within the next hour or
two. Have updated the grids in the short-term to increase PoPs and
QPF, accordingly.
Updated text products will be sent shortly.
/09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Another night and another large convective complex is ongoing
across the Southern Plains west of the CWA. The strongest storms
in this complex should remain well southwest of the area.
Thunderstorms are a bit more robust and are maintaining themselves
a bit better compared to the last few nights. Some of these storms
will likely reach a few of our westernmost counties of East Texas
and McCurtain County in Southeast Oklahoma this morning. However,
the storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent as they
encounter decreasing instability. Similar to the last 24 hours,
redevelopment is possible along any old outflow boundaries
especially from the peak of daytime heating through the evening
hours. A very similar scenario is expected to unfold tonight
through Tuesday morning.
A long-duration rain event, with the potential for localized heavy
rainfall, is still expected to develop beginning late Tuesday and
continuing into at least early Saturday as an upper trough
currently over the California/Arizona border slowly moves towards
the area. The best chances for widespread rainfall should be
Wednesday and into Thursday as a cold front approaches. It appears
the highest rainfall totals will be west of a line from Lufkin,
TX, to Prescott, AR. Through Saturday morning, 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall is likely in those locations, with lower amounts farther
east, but still probably above an inch. Locally higher amounts
will be possible especially if storms are slow-moving or training.
Flood headlines may become necessary in later forecast packages.
The upper trough is expected to stall just south of the area,
possibly just off the coast south of the mouth of the Sabine
River. The trough will gradually weaken through the beginning of
next week, but thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on a
daily basis, especially south of I-30 through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 70 88 70 / 30 20 20 30
MLU 91 69 90 71 / 30 20 20 20
DEQ 86 66 84 68 / 50 30 30 50
TXK 87 67 87 69 / 40 30 30 40
ELD 90 67 90 70 / 30 20 30 30
TYR 88 69 86 69 / 50 20 20 40
GGG 88 67 87 69 / 40 20 20 40
LFK 88 67 88 69 / 30 10 20 20
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
06/09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
713 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...
12z sfc obs indicate a mix of conditions ongoing...the worst of
which is dense fog being reported at KARA. As per the norm expect
all sites to improve to VFR over the next hour or so...leaving
behind a day of mainly just sct cu and cirrus per forecast time-
height sections. The combo of lift from an approaching shortwave
over TX and a little deeper moisture over the ern sections of the
forecast area have led to the insertion of vcsh for
KAEX/KLFT/KARA for the afternoon hours.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...An upper level low is over the SW states this
morning with an short wave moving around the larger low and into
Texas. Associated with the short wave over Texas a line of storms
is moving south and east. Models agree that this activity will
mostly move south through this morning, however as the short wave
moves closer to Louisiana scattered storms will be possible by
this afternoon. With a hot and humid air mass in place and a
slight bit of divergence aloft storm coverage should be a little
higher than the past couple of afternoons.
Through mid week the upper low over the desert southwest will very
gradually move south and east. Ahead of the low very weak upper
ridging is expected over the northern gulf coast. This will keep
pops ranging from isolated to low end scattered and mostly diurnal through
Wednesday.
Late in the week and into the weekend, the pattern becomes wetter.
The upper low over the sw states very slowly moves closer and cuts
off while a weak frontal boundary drifts to the coast. This will
provide multiple days of rain again with some possibly being heavy
at times.
MARINE...Weak high pressure will remain across the coastal waters
through mid week keeping winds light and mainly onshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 92 70 91 69 / 30 20 20 10
LCH 90 70 89 71 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 90 72 91 71 / 30 10 20 10
BPT 89 71 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.AVIATION...
Quiet weather pattern as clouds are expected to fall apart over
the next hour or two... areas of fog expected to develop towards
sunrise with vsby dropping... looking at MVFR at the TAF lctns.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A very warm and humid afternoon across the forecast area with
temperatures away from the immediate coast in the upper 80s to
around 90F, and heat index readings in the low to mid 90s. With
some upper level ridging and mid level dry air noted across the
forecast area, local radars have been void of any significant
convection so far. May be a stray shower or two before the end of
daytime heating, especially near any sea breeze that tries to
form. However, a vast majority of locations will remain shower
free.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over southern
California, with an upper level northern stream trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. Disturbance rotating around the upper
level low is expected to be picked up by the southern stream and
pushed toward the forecast area, cutting briefly into the upper
level ridge by Monday afternoon. With a warm and moist air mass in
place, this will likely help kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms over the forecast area.
This system will move off to the east on Tuesday, with upper level
ridging again over the forecast area to limit convection.
By Wednesday, northern stream upper level trough will begin to
pick up and absorb upper level low and move off to the east. This
system will begin to break down the ridge over the forecast area
by Thursday, allowing an increase in chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
There is decent consistency in extended guidance now, with this
upper level system stalling over the region on Friday, with a cut
off upper level low developing west of the forecast area over
Texas. Therefore, looks like high rain chances for the end of the
week into next weekend. Will have to watch this closely, as this
is the typical pattern for heavy rainfall for the forecast area.
Rua
MARINE...
A weak high pressure system at the surface is located over the
coastal waters this afternoon. Mainly light winds, and therefore,
low seas are the result. This high pressure system will continue
to meander over the coastal waters through mid week, allowing the
light, mainly onshore winds, and relatively low seas to continue.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 91 70 91 / 10 30 10 20
LCH 71 88 70 88 / 10 20 10 10
LFT 72 90 71 90 / 10 30 10 20
BPT 71 88 70 88 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms North of ktxk, keld and kmlu could near
the aforementioned sites later this evening, and have therefore
inserted at VCTS. Isolated thunderstorms have also developed West
of ktyr and kggg, so it is worth inserting a VCTS. Will of course
amend as necessary. Computer models hint at the shower and
thunderstorm activity diminishing shortly after sunset and this
is reflected in this TAF package. MVFR to IFR VIS due to fog may
occur overnight particularly at kmlu, ktxk, klfk and keld. Can not
rule out FEW-SCT MVFR cigs as well.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
DISCUSSION... Low clouds West are lifting and thinning with mid
to upper 80s. 90 plus in much of our East as expected late this
morning. HRRR and GFS still bringing some development along I-30
down into Northern Caddo and Bossier 00-06z now. We will keep
slight and added chance pops late this afternoon as a weakness
seen on water vapor over NE TX attm moves overhead at peak
heating. Also a southward moving outflow out of AR.
Our surface winds remain light and all over the dial at 5mph, but
are E/SE up to 10kft. Any isolated or scattered Thunderstorms
would likely move West early and end up outflow driven to the NE
as they build into the mid levels steering in the Westerlies
remain strong from 15kft on up for any spreading tower anvils
where excellent outflow is from the W/NW at 70KTS. We are just
watching a new development West of Smith and Wood moving to the
NE. Tops already at 40kft. The water vapor is showing that
weakness aloft over NE TX plugging into our heating. If Thunder
roars, move indoors. Any storms would be brief half hour or so.
We are looking for increased coverage each day including our
national Memorial Day holiday with 2 or 3 out of 10 Old Glory`s
wet. The short work week that follows continues a wet trend and
even on into next weekend rainfall totals look manageable with
few issues in this highly evaporative heat. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
AVIATION...
All terminal locations enjoying vfr conditions this afternoon but
cu field is growing across the region. Latest watervapor imagery
showing a remnant mcv spinning across the Middle Red River Valley
of Ne Tx into S Ok and this feature will continue to move slowly
eastward throughout the afternoon/evening. Already seeing some
widely scattered convection across portions of Sw Ar and 12z progs
hinting at this possibility developing in the vicinity of the Txk
airport as well later this afternoon. Made mention of this in the
18z taf package with confidence not high enough to include any
similar mention across the other terminals. Any convection should
dissipate this evening to our north.
Added some vsby restrictions in a few terminals after midnight
which should hang around through 14z on Mon before vfr conditions
continue.
Winds should be light and variable for the remainder of the
day...becoming light or calm overnight with a southeast wind
prevailing through the morning hours Mon less than 10kts.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 88 70 87 / 20 20 20 30
MLU 70 90 69 89 / 10 30 20 30
DEQ 66 85 66 84 / 30 30 20 40
TXK 68 86 67 86 / 30 30 20 30
ELD 68 88 67 87 / 30 30 20 30
TYR 70 86 69 85 / 20 40 20 30
GGG 69 86 67 86 / 20 30 20 30
LFK 69 87 67 87 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29/24/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
436 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Showers and thunderstorms central/eastern mountains and adjacent
plains with some heavy rain possible...
Models continue to indicate that showers and thunderstorms will
develop and move south through southern Colorado today and tonight.
The area of widespread precipitation will primarily impact the east
slopes of the mountains and adjacent plains. Areas to the west and
east of this area will see only isolated to scattered precipitation
and considerably lower precipitation amounts. The cold front that
will get things going is already moving south through El Paso County
at the present time. It will continue moving south early this
morning and be through all of southern Colorado by midmorning. Winds
will be northeasterly behind the front but will turn around to east
and finally southeast in most areas of the plains during the
afternoon. This will bring upslope forcing to areas along and near
the east slopes of the mountains. About the same time, an upper
disturbance will move through, providing lift from above during the
afternoon. The two forcing mechanisms will work together to lift a
moist and unstable airmass and get widespread showers and
thunderstorms going over the Pikes Peak Region during the late
afternoon.
A few showers are occurring, per radar, over eastern El
Paso County at the present time. This is in a response to the front
moving through and lifting the air. This just gives an indication
of how unstable the air is right now. It`s hard to generate new
convection in southern Colorado during the predawn hours so the
airmass must be pretty unstable. In any event, this activity may
come and go this morning but the really big show of precipitation
will hold off until later in the afternoon through the evening.
Early in this period, widespread showers and thunderstorms will get
going initially over the Pikes Peak Region and then spread south
through the course of the evening. The severe threat doesn`t look
that great mainly due to a lack of shear. The Storm Prediction
Center doesn`t even have southern Colorado outlooked for today.
Probably the main threat from storms this go around will be the
possibility of heavy rainfall. The models are generating some
pretty hefty precipitation totals, which is usually an indication
that the model`s convective parameters are all being turned on. With
frontal forcing, an upper level trigger, adequate moisture, decent
instability and slow steering currents, heavy rain would certainly
seem reasonable. Will have to watch for the possibility of some
flooding problems, especially over urban areas and burns scars.
For the western mountains and high valleys and also
the far eastern plains, showers and storms look to be much more
scattered with this event. Precipitation amounts should be much
spottier and lower in these areas, with a much lower concern for any
flooding problems. The rainfall will decrease from north to south
overnight, ending over the Pikes Peak Region by midnight and then
heading south of the New Mexico border by Wednesday morning.
Finally, it should be noted that the mountains above 10,000 feet
will see some more wet snow. This time it looks likes generally 2
to 4 inches by Wednesday morning, with up to about half a foot or so
on top of Pikes Peak.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wednesday...Colorado will be between two upper level low pressure
systems Wed morning, with a cold front rapidly sinking south into
New Mexico. Models agree on painting higher QPF and shower chances
along the southern Front Range through Wed morn as llvl upslope flow
strengthens. Expect scattered to likely pops over the higher
terrain, and isolated pops for the SLV and I-25 corridor, through
Wed eve. Wed will be the coolest day of the extended forecast
period, with max temps for most locations in the mid 60s to right
around 70 F.
Thursday through Monday...An upper ridge builds into the desert sw,
bringing much warmer and drier conditions over the weekend and into
the next work week. There will be the diurnal aftn and eve isolated
mt convection, but otherwise much of the area should remain dry,
save for some spillover across the I-25 corridor. Look for max temps
in the 80s to around 90 F for the plains, and 70s to near 80 F for
the high valleys. Fri is forecast to be the warmest day of the
extended. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
A cold front is moving south through the eastern plains this
morning. It has already moved through El Paso County and will be
all the way south into New Mexico by midmorning. Behind the front,
upslope flow will develop, helping to prime the atmosphere for the
development of widespread showers and storms over the Pikes Peak
Region during the afternoon, spreading southward through the evening.
This will lead to the development of widespread MVFR, IFR and LIFR
conditions through the afternoon and evening along and near the
eastern mountains. Erratic thunderstorm winds, lightning and heavy
rain will be the primary concerns with this system. The western
mountains and high valleys and also the far eastern plains will see
much less precipitation with this event.
The KCOS and KPUB TAF sites will both likely see showers and
thunderstorms move through with this system. There is a much lesser
chance for KALS but there is still a chance. The initial onset of
convection will be around noon. However, the more widespread and
intense activity will likely hold off until late afternoon at KCOS
and until evening at KPUB. For KALS, the best chance for weather
moving through will be during the late afternoon and early evening.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
...Increased potential for thunderstorms for the SE Mts/Adjacent
Plains Tuesday...
Forecast area will be under weak forcing today ahead of trough axis
out west connecting northern stream upper low moving through through
northern U.S. Rockies and the desert southwest upper low. Showers
and thunderstorms have fired off over the mountains...and are
progged by models to continue eastward across the plains through the
late afternoon/early evening. Surface low centered just north of
KLHX has kept winds more southerly to southwesterly across the
southern I-25 corridor and southern plains, and HRRR seems more
inclined to mix out low level moisture today vs yesterday. However,
where southeasterly winds maintain...could still see some lower 50
dew points...and CAPE values near 2000 J/kg through the early
afternoon until mixing drops these off during the evening. Weak mid
level winds today suggest deep layer shear may be on the weak side
for organized supercell thunderstorms...but certainly a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm or two will be possible across the
southeast plains to the east of KLHX. Main threat will be gusty
winds to around 60 mph...but some hail up to 1 inch in diameter will
also be possible with any initial intense updrafts. Activity will
shift eastward into KS overnight.
Northern stream upper Low will move eastward into the Dakotas
tonight sending a cold front through southeast Colorado. Initially
wind shift looks more thunderstorm outflow dominated this
evening...but a secondary surge is expected after 09z with the main
front. This will push cooler air into SE CO for Tuesday with winds
shifting around from an easterly upslope direction during the
afternoon. Question for Tuesday will be how much low level moisture
will be retained behind the front and how much instability will be
present. One of two scenarios could play out. If dew points drop
off into the lower 40s this will significantly cut back on CAPE
across the plains, but would likely maintain a narrow ribbon of up
to 1000 J/kg of CAPE over the southeast mountains. However if
surface dew points can maintain in the upper 40s and 50s...then this
may be enough to keep 1000-1500+ J/kg of CAPE across much of the
southeast plains. Still looks like main threat will be for
widespread showers and thunderstorms for the southeast mountains
initially during the afternoon with the plains being capped. . Best
chance for a few strong storms or two will be over the mountains,
particularly south of highway 50. This area is most likely to remain
under low level theta-e axis with southern border counties also
having some potential for some strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Will have to watch the
burn scars in the SE mountains tomorrow afternoon as heavy rainfall
from thunderstorms could produce some localized flash flooding for
these more flood prone areas. For now think the risk is too
localized to warrant flash flood watches at this point, but this
will be re-assessed as the time frame gets resolved by higher res
models. Snow levels will remain rather high through the day
tomorrow, most likely above 11.5kft with higher peaks picking up a
quick couple inches of snow during the afternoon. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
...Heavy Rain Possible Tue Night...
Main concern in the extended comes early...Tue night...then things
gradually settle down as a high amplitude ridge begins to build over
the Rockies.
Tue night...we get a good shot of upslope over the Ern CO Plains, as
a 1020 ridge builds Over the High Plains on the backside of a
shortwave system moving through the Dakotas and southern Canada.
Concurrently...a weak low pressure system will track through
southern AZ and NM. This will create a favorable upslope regime for
our eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. NCEP models are in good
agreement with between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of QPF over this region Tue
night into Wed morning. Intensity level will be waning, so flash
flood threat looks limited. However, still the possibility of some
heavier cells impacting urban zones and burn scars, so will have to
keep an eye on trend through the night into Wed morning. Heaviest
amounts will be over Pikes Peak area and Wet mountains. Have
boosted POPs to categorical for these zones, and spread POPs a bit
farther to the east. Most of the I-25 corridor should see wetting
rains. Far eastern Plains a bit more in question, but at least a
chance of some rain for the areas farther east. For the mountains,
snow levels may get down to 10000 feet or so, but heaviest snow
accums will be above 11000 feet. Currently have about 4-8 inches of
snow for the summit of Pikes Peak, and 3-6 for the Wets and Sangres.
Considered an advisory for these high elevation zones, but given the
high snow levels and relatively brief window of opportunity for
higher QPF, will hold off. Travelers to the high country should be
prepared for winter conditions through early Wed.
Should see a bit of a respite late Wed morning into early afternoon,
before another round of showers and a few storms hits Wed afternoon
and eve, with persistent but weakening upslope through Wed night.
This round does not look as heavy or widespread as the earlier one,
however. After Wed, the upper ridge begins to build strongly over
the Central Rockies, and temps will be on the increase over our
area. Could see temps approach 90 degrees for the plains by the
latter part of the week. Some moisture trapped under the ridge will
keep a daily threat of showers and storms going each afternoon and
eve, but primarily over the higher terrain and surrounding areas.
Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
Winds are still expected to increase to around 15 to 25 knots
form the north by early Tuesday morning as a front moves through.
MVFR to local IFR CIGS are anticipated over the Palmer Divide
region and will be capable of developing into the KCOS area by
early Tuesday morning, depending on the strength of the northerly
downslope winds. In addition, increasing threats of SHRA and TSRA
are anticipated at the KCOS and KPUB taf sites from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night with CIGS expected to drop into the
IFR category at times during this time-frame. At KALS, generally
VFR conditions should be noted during the next 24 hours, although
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Showers and thunderstorms central/eastern mountains and adjacent
plains with some heavy rain possible...
Models continue to indicate that showers and thunderstorms will
develop and move south through southern Colorado today and tonight.
The area of widespread precipitation will primarily impact the east
slopes of the mountains and adjacent plains. Areas to the west and
east of this area will see only isolated to scattered precipitation
and considerably lower precipitation amounts. The cold front that
will get things going is already moving south through El Paso County
at the present time. It will continue moving south early this
morning and be through all of southern Colorado by midmorning. Winds
will be northeasterly behind the front but will turn around to east
and finally southeast in most areas of the plains during the
afternoon. This will bring upslope forcing to areas along and near
the east slopes of the mountains. About the same time, an upper
disturbance will move through, providing lift from above during the
afternoon. The two forcing mechanisms will work together to lift a
moist and unstable airmass and get widespread showers and
thunderstorms going over the Pikes Peak Region during the late
afternoon.
A few showers are occurring, per radar, over eastern El
Paso County at the present time. This is in a response to the front
moving through and lifting the air. This just gives an indication
of how unstable the air is right now. It`s hard to generate new
convection in southern Colorado during the predawn hours so the
airmass must be pretty unstable. In any event, this activity may
come and go this morning but the really big show of precipitation
will hold off until later in the afternoon through the evening.
Early in this period, widespread showers and thunderstorms will get
going initially over the Pikes Peak Region and then spread south
through the course of the evening. The severe threat doesn`t look
that great mainly due to a lack of shear. The Storm Prediction
Center doesn`t even have southern Colorado outlooked for today.
Probably the main threat from storms this go around will be the
possibility of heavy rainfall. The models are generating some
pretty hefty precipitation totals, which is usually an indication
that the model`s convective parameters are all being turned on. With
frontal forcing, an upper level trigger, adequate moisture, decent
instability and slow steering currents, heavy rain would certainly
seem reasonable. Will have to watch for the possibility of some
flooding problems, especially over urban areas and burns scars.
For the western mountains and high valleys and also
the far eastern plains, showers and storms look to be much more
scattered with this event. Precipitation amounts should be much
spottier and lower in these areas, with a much lower concern for any
flooding problems. The rainfall will decrease from north to south
overnight, ending over the Pikes Peak Region by midnight and then
heading south of the New Mexico border by Wednesday morning.
Finally, it should be noted that the mountains above 10,000 feet
will see some more wet snow. This time it looks likes generally 2
to 4 inches by Wednesday morning, with up to about half a foot or so
on top of Pikes Peak.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wednesday...Colorado will be between two upper level low pressure
systems Wed morning, with a cold front rapidly sinking south into
New Mexico. Models agree on painting higher QPF and shower chances
along the southern Front Range through Wed morn as llvl upslope flow
strengthens. Expect scattered to likely pops over the higher
terrain, and isolated pops for the SLV and I-25 corridor, through
Wed eve. Wed will be the coolest day of the extended forecast
period, with max temps for most locations in the mid 60s to right
around 70 F.
Thursday through Monday...An upper ridge builds into the desert sw,
bringing much warmer and drier conditions over the weekend and into
the next work week. There will be the diurnal aftn and eve isolated
mt convection, but otherwise much of the area should remain dry,
save for some spillover across the I-25 corridor. Look for max temps
in the 80s to around 90 F for the plains, and 70s to near 80 F for
the high valleys. Fri is forecast to be the warmest day of the
extended. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Computer forecasts are showing a lot of inconsistent signals for
precip duration and timing today...lowering overall confidence in
extended periods of heavy rain. However, a period of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain is likely, particularly in the 21-03z
time frame for the I-25 corridor. Due to early clouds, instability
likely will be lower and prob of TS lower, so have removed TS from
FM groups, but left as VCTS. Could see a period of MVFR to
occasional IFR at KCOS and KPUB from 21-22Z through 06Z tonight,
with low cigs a possibility late tonight especially at KCOS. AT
KALS, should stay VFR with no precip but cannot rule out an
occasional shower. Rose
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
436 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
...Showers and thunderstorms central/eastern mountains and adjacent
plains with some heavy rain possible...
Models continue to indicate that showers and thunderstorms will
develop and move south through southern Colorado today and tonight.
The area of widespread precipitation will primarily impact the east
slopes of the mountains and adjacent plains. Areas to the west and
east of this area will see only isolated to scattered precipitation
and considerably lower precipitation amounts. The cold front that
will get things going is already moving south through El Paso County
at the present time. It will continue moving south early this
morning and be through all of southern Colorado by midmorning. Winds
will be northeasterly behind the front but will turn around to east
and finally southeast in most areas of the plains during the
afternoon. This will bring upslope forcing to areas along and near
the east slopes of the mountains. About the same time, an upper
disturbance will move through, providing lift from above during the
afternoon. The two forcing mechanisms will work together to lift a
moist and unstable airmass and get widespread showers and
thunderstorms going over the Pikes Peak Region during the late
afternoon.
A few showers are occurring, per radar, over eastern El
Paso County at the present time. This is in a response to the front
moving through and lifting the air. This just gives an indication
of how unstable the air is right now. It`s hard to generate new
convection in southern Colorado during the predawn hours so the
airmass must be pretty unstable. In any event, this activity may
come and go this morning but the really big show of precipitation
will hold off until later in the afternoon through the evening.
Early in this period, widespread showers and thunderstorms will get
going initially over the Pikes Peak Region and then spread south
through the course of the evening. The severe threat doesn`t look
that great mainly due to a lack of shear. The Storm Prediction
Center doesn`t even have southern Colorado outlooked for today.
Probably the main threat from storms this go around will be the
possibility of heavy rainfall. The models are generating some
pretty hefty precipitation totals, which is usually an indication
that the model`s convective parameters are all being turned on. With
frontal forcing, an upper level trigger, adequate moisture, decent
instability and slow steering currents, heavy rain would certainly
seem reasonable. Will have to watch for the possibility of some
flooding problems, especially over urban areas and burns scars.
For the western mountains and high valleys and also
the far eastern plains, showers and storms look to be much more
scattered with this event. Precipitation amounts should be much
spottier and lower in these areas, with a much lower concern for any
flooding problems. The rainfall will decrease from north to south
overnight, ending over the Pikes Peak Region by midnight and then
heading south of the New Mexico border by Wednesday morning.
Finally, it should be noted that the mountains above 10,000 feet
will see some more wet snow. This time it looks likes generally 2
to 4 inches by Wednesday morning, with up to about half a foot or so
on top of Pikes Peak.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
Wednesday...Colorado will be between two upper level low pressure
systems Wed morning, with a cold front rapidly sinking south into
New Mexico. Models agree on painting higher QPF and shower chances
along the southern Front Range through Wed morn as llvl upslope flow
strengthens. Expect scattered to likely pops over the higher
terrain, and isolated pops for the SLV and I-25 corridor, through
Wed eve. Wed will be the coolest day of the extended forecast
period, with max temps for most locations in the mid 60s to right
around 70 F.
Thursday through Monday...An upper ridge builds into the desert sw,
bringing much warmer and drier conditions over the weekend and into
the next work week. There will be the diurnal aftn and eve isolated
mt convection, but otherwise much of the area should remain dry,
save for some spillover across the I-25 corridor. Look for max temps
in the 80s to around 90 F for the plains, and 70s to near 80 F for
the high valleys. Fri is forecast to be the warmest day of the
extended. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016
A cold front is moving south through the eastern plains this
morning. It has already moved through El Paso County and will be
all the way south into New Mexico by midmorning. Behind the front,
upslope flow will develop, helping to prime the atmosphere for the
development of widespread showers and storms over the Pikes Peak
Region during the afternoon, spreading southward through the evening.
This will lead to the development of widespread MVFR, IFR and LIFR
conditions through the afternoon and evening along and near the
eastern mountains. Erratic thunderstorm winds, lightning and heavy
rain will be the primary concerns with this system. The western
mountains and high valleys and also the far eastern plains will see
much less precipitation with this event.
The KCOS and KPUB TAF sites will both likely see showers and
thunderstorms move through with this system. There is a much lesser
chance for KALS but there is still a chance. The initial onset of
convection will be around noon. However, the more widespread and
intense activity will likely hold off until late afternoon at KCOS
and until evening at KPUB. For KALS, the best chance for weather
moving through will be during the late afternoon and early evening.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
...Increased potential for thunderstorms for the SE Mts/Adjacent
Plains Tuesday...
Forecast area will be under weak forcing today ahead of trough axis
out west connecting northern stream upper low moving through through
northern U.S. Rockies and the desert southwest upper low. Showers
and thunderstorms have fired off over the mountains...and are
progged by models to continue eastward across the plains through the
late afternoon/early evening. Surface low centered just north of
KLHX has kept winds more southerly to southwesterly across the
southern I-25 corridor and southern plains, and HRRR seems more
inclined to mix out low level moisture today vs yesterday. However,
where southeasterly winds maintain...could still see some lower 50
dew points...and CAPE values near 2000 J/kg through the early
afternoon until mixing drops these off during the evening. Weak mid
level winds today suggest deep layer shear may be on the weak side
for organized supercell thunderstorms...but certainly a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm or two will be possible across the
southeast plains to the east of KLHX. Main threat will be gusty
winds to around 60 mph...but some hail up to 1 inch in diameter will
also be possible with any initial intense updrafts. Activity will
shift eastward into KS overnight.
Northern stream upper Low will move eastward into the Dakotas
tonight sending a cold front through southeast Colorado. Initially
wind shift looks more thunderstorm outflow dominated this
evening...but a secondary surge is expected after 09z with the main
front. This will push cooler air into SE CO for Tuesday with winds
shifting around from an easterly upslope direction during the
afternoon. Question for Tuesday will be how much low level moisture
will be retained behind the front and how much instability will be
present. One of two scenarios could play out. If dew points drop
off into the lower 40s this will significantly cut back on CAPE
across the plains, but would likely maintain a narrow ribbon of up
to 1000 J/kg of CAPE over the southeast mountains. However if
surface dew points can maintain in the upper 40s and 50s...then this
may be enough to keep 1000-1500+ J/kg of CAPE across much of the
southeast plains. Still looks like main threat will be for
widespread showers and thunderstorms for the southeast mountains
initially during the afternoon with the plains being capped. . Best
chance for a few strong storms or two will be over the mountains,
particularly south of highway 50. This area is most likely to remain
under low level theta-e axis with southern border counties also
having some potential for some strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Will have to watch the
burn scars in the SE mountains tomorrow afternoon as heavy rainfall
from thunderstorms could produce some localized flash flooding for
these more flood prone areas. For now think the risk is too
localized to warrant flash flood watches at this point, but this
will be re-assessed as the time frame gets resolved by higher res
models. Snow levels will remain rather high through the day
tomorrow, most likely above 11.5kft with higher peaks picking up a
quick couple inches of snow during the afternoon. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
...Heavy Rain Possible Tue Night...
Main concern in the extended comes early...Tue night...then things
gradually settle down as a high amplitude ridge begins to build over
the Rockies.
Tue night...we get a good shot of upslope over the Ern CO Plains, as
a 1020 ridge builds Over the High Plains on the backside of a
shortwave system moving through the Dakotas and southern Canada.
Concurrently...a weak low pressure system will track through
southern AZ and NM. This will create a favorable upslope regime for
our eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. NCEP models are in good
agreement with between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of QPF over this region Tue
night into Wed morning. Intensity level will be waning, so flash
flood threat looks limited. However, still the possibility of some
heavier cells impacting urban zones and burn scars, so will have to
keep an eye on trend through the night into Wed morning. Heaviest
amounts will be over Pikes Peak area and Wet mountains. Have
boosted POPs to categorical for these zones, and spread POPs a bit
farther to the east. Most of the I-25 corridor should see wetting
rains. Far eastern Plains a bit more in question, but at least a
chance of some rain for the areas farther east. For the mountains,
snow levels may get down to 10000 feet or so, but heaviest snow
accums will be above 11000 feet. Currently have about 4-8 inches of
snow for the summit of Pikes Peak, and 3-6 for the Wets and Sangres.
Considered an advisory for these high elevation zones, but given the
high snow levels and relatively brief window of opportunity for
higher QPF, will hold off. Travelers to the high country should be
prepared for winter conditions through early Wed.
Should see a bit of a respite late Wed morning into early afternoon,
before another round of showers and a few storms hits Wed afternoon
and eve, with persistent but weakening upslope through Wed night.
This round does not look as heavy or widespread as the earlier one,
however. After Wed, the upper ridge begins to build strongly over
the Central Rockies, and temps will be on the increase over our
area. Could see temps approach 90 degrees for the plains by the
latter part of the week. Some moisture trapped under the ridge will
keep a daily threat of showers and storms going each afternoon and
eve, but primarily over the higher terrain and surrounding areas.
Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016
Winds are still expected to increase to around 15 to 25 knots
form the north by early Tuesday morning as a front moves through.
MVFR to local IFR CIGS are anticipated over the Palmer Divide
region and will be capable of developing into the KCOS area by
early Tuesday morning, depending on the strength of the northerly
downslope winds. In addition, increasing threats of SHRA and TSRA
are anticipated at the KCOS and KPUB taf sites from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night with CIGS expected to drop into the
IFR category at times during this time-frame. At KALS, generally
VFR conditions should be noted during the next 24 hours, although
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z TAF discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered storms will affect or will be in the vicinity of the
TAF sites during the forecast period. Attempted to give a more
favored timing at each of the sites...knowing that this may change
and will have to be amended. Guidance indicates that fog may
reappear again in NW AR toward dawn Wed morning...and this was
included in the TAFs. There`s also an indication of some MVFR cigs
for the NE OK sites around dawn.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Complex of storms, which formed in association with the synoptic
front, were affecting NE OK this morning. These storms weren`t
well resolved by the numerical guidance. The latest couple runs of
the HRRR have finally latched on to this...and will use the theme
of its forecast for the remainder of today. Given the effects of
the morning storms...looks like the better chances for afternoon
storms will be along and south of I-40 and have adjusted pops in
that direction. If trends continue further adjustment will be
made. The evening hours look quiet...before more storms develop to
the south and west and eventually track into parts of the area
after midnight.
Lacy
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VLIFR vsbys/cigs will prevail across nw AR for a brief period
this morning...with MVFR cigs occurring briefly at the remaining
TAF sites. Cigs to lift to VFR by afternoon...with increasing MVFR
cigs tonight as TSRA chances continue for the latter portion of
the TAF period...and will be covered with prob groups at all sites
after 06z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone
across the northern Plains...with convection extending along a
weak front from MN into southwestern KS. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase today...especially during the afternoon...as
the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Increasing
instability this afternoon will be supportive of a few strong
thunderstorms...although the overall weak bulk shear should
preclude organized severe weather. That said...still could see
sporadic severe thunderstorms...with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will remain on
the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level
shear axis linger across the forecast area.
As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states...with
associated shear axis is expected to shift a little farther south
by Thursday into Friday. The higher PoPs are expected across
southeast OK into western AR during this timeframe...with rain
chances trailing off by Saturday.
Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop late this weekend
into early next week...with several days of drier weather along
with seasonal temperatures.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 64 77 62 / 50 70 70 20
FSM 85 67 80 66 / 50 60 70 60
MLC 82 64 76 63 / 80 70 70 40
BVO 81 62 77 61 / 40 70 60 20
FYV 81 62 77 61 / 50 60 70 60
BYV 81 62 78 61 / 50 60 70 60
MKO 83 64 77 62 / 50 70 70 40
MIO 81 62 78 61 / 50 70 70 20
F10 81 64 76 62 / 50 70 70 30
HHW 84 66 78 66 / 80 70 70 60
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30