Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/26/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016
New Aviation Discussion
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad low pressure system will remain over the region into
midweek for breezy winds and below normal temperatures. A cool
weather pattern will prevail with a few showers at times. A high
pressure system should begin to build in on Thursday for normal
temperatures into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Locally gusty Sundowner winds have developed across Southern
Santa Barbara County this evening. With KSBA-KSMX gradients a tad
weaker than last night, winds are expected below advisory level
winds.
A broad trough remains over the West Coast this evening per the
latest water vapor imagery. A shortwave trough moving around the
broader trough circulation is currently located about 400 miles
west-northwest of Los Angeles. The shortwave trough and its
associated jet streak will wrap around the trough and nose into
the South Coast Basin after midnight tonight. With some clouds
developing on infrared satellite this evening ahead of the upper-
level feature and an eddy circulation remaining intact, mentions
of showers have been added to the forecast. The instability aloft
could interact with the expanding stratocumulus deck across the
South Coast Basin to bring mainly isolated showers to the coast,
valleys, and mountains.
Strong onshore flow in place and a bit better upper-level wind
support with the vorticity maximum could bring advisory level
winds to the Antelope Valley on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The next shift will be briefed about the wind possibilities.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...By late morning Tuesday with the added low lvl
moisture most areas should at least have more clouds with cooler
daytime highs. Again, a very small chance of a
sprinkle/drizzle/light shower around with the deep inversion. With
the daytime heating and lift from the onshore flow clouds should
increase over the mtns with some isolated light showers there.
Stability parameters were very poor in the models for tomorrow
(and Wednesday), possibly just due to too much cloud cover, but
didn`t feel like there was much chance of thunder so that`s been
removed.
A second upper low dumbbells around the trough and moves through
Wed morning. Here again no real organized features to really have
much confidence in. A little moisture mainly below 850 mb again
with the flow shifting to northwest behind the trough in the
afternoon. And again a very weak marine inversion making it a
tricky sky cover forecast. Overall partly cloudy, maybe some
periods of mostly cloudy, perhaps an isolated light
sprinkle/shower, mainly near the mtns.
Air mass starts to dry out Wednesday night as the trough finally
exits to the east and a very brief low amplitude ridge develops
over California. Should be a sunnier day Thu with little threat
of any precipitation. Perhaps some afternoon clouds over the mtns
with highs a few degrees warmer than Wed.
LONG TERM...The little warming trend will continue into Friday
before a weak trough returns for the weekend. Minimal impacts
locally other than a cooling trend through early next week with a
deepening marine lyr.
&&
.AVIATION...
24/0600Z
At 06Z AT KLAX there was no marine layer.
Low confidence in TAFs due to a weak marine layer. There is a 40
percent chc of no MVFR conds for all TAFs KSBA and south. There is a
better chance of low VFR BKN conds later this morning and afternoon.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs
through 17Z. Better chc of VFR cigs after 17Z but could range
anywhere from 035 to 080.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no mvfr
cigs.
&&
.MARINE...
23/900 PM
Winds will diminish some between late tonight and Tuesday night.
There is a 30 percent chance that the Small Craft Advisory could
be extended through Tuesday evening. Widespread advisory level
winds are expected across the outer waters from Wednesday evening
through at least Friday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For
zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Seto/Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
911 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will continue to bring unsettled
weather and cool conditions across NorCal most of this week.
Warmer and mainly dry conditions by this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure area is moving over the Northern San Joaquin Valley
this evening. Showers have been gradually dissipating this evening
over the interior. The HRRR model is indicating some showers
enhancing over Shasta County and moving over the north end of the
valley overnight while the NAM model is keeping the valley dry and
indicating just a few showers over the mountains.
That shortwave over the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday will help to
continue unsettled weather for the region. Most of the activity
will be focused over the mountains but some showers or isolated
thunderstorms could end up over the valley once again. Isolated
thunderstorms will continue to be possible for the afternoon into
the early evening hours.
On Wednesday the low moves over Southern California. This will
keep unstable conditions over the region with most of the activity
continuing to be focused over the mountains and slight chances
over the northern half of the Sacramento valley. Temperatures will
continue to be cooler than normal but 3-5 degrees warmer than
Tuesday.
On Thursday the trough moves far enough to the east to dry out
most areas. Only some isolated afternoon showers over the
mountains near the crest look possible. Temperatures will warm
back up to near seasonal normals.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
On Friday, Northern California will be on the relatively dry
backside of the upper level trough. The northernly flow should
bring dry conditions to nearly everyone although there could be
enough instability in the Sierra to set off some afternoon
thunderstorms. For both Friday and Saturday, winds could become a
bit breezy at times while temperatures should be right around
normal for this time of year. Beyond this, both the GFS and ECMWF
have a weak shortwave dropping down the backside of the trough
which may trigger more mountain thunderstorms Sunday and into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with relatively
light winds. The upper level trough continues to linger over
Northern California and will result in SCT 5-8 kft cumulus in the
valley in addition to a higher (20 kft) SCT to BKN deck. Lcl MVFR
conditions in the mountains. Most of the shower activity tonight
should remain in the higher elevations.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1059 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring very warm
weather to most of the region through Saturday, along with
increasing humidity this weekend. It will be cooler at times along
the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts Sunday with warm
weather continuing elsewhere. Warmer than normal temperatures
overspread the remainder of the area by early next week. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday,
and again this weekend but the vast majority of the time will be
dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...
Band of showers that moved out of the Berkshires late this
afternoon associated with weak short wave moving across the region
had weakened by sunset as they crossed central MA and N central
CT. Some leftover mid and high clouds are also tending to
dissipate as they cross N CT/RI. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and
mild temps at 02Z across the region.
Weak surface high pressure ridge and associated mid level ridging
cross overnight. However, noting some high thin clouds working E
across western NY state on latest IR satellite. Some may filter
into western areas toward sunrise out ahead of next system in the
fast W-NW flow aloft. Also noting weak, dry cold front working
slowly S across S VT/NH with weak surface low off the Maine coast.
Little if any moisture with this system, so not expecting precip
overnight across northern Mass.
General light W-SW wind flow in place across the region along with
patchy clouds. Not expecting temps to fall too much overnight with
the milder wind in place.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current. Temps
were a few degrees milder that previous forecast through 00Z so
adjusted those, but looked like the overnight temps were in good
shape so kept those.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level
ridge centers itself over southern New England. With a much weaker
gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam
dunk. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but
still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under mostly
sunny skies.
Thursday night...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall
conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will
go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the upper
50s to lower 60s for most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 pm update...
Highlights...
* Temperatures warmer than normal much of the time
* Other than isolated showers/thunderstorms many hours of dry
weather this period
Subtropical ridge builds northwestward from western Atlantic into
the northeast late this week into the weekend and lingers into at
least early next week. This will result in temperatures warmer
than normal much of the time along with mainly dry weather. Both
the 00z GEFS and 00z EPS offer 850 temp anomalies of +1 to +2
standard deviations above normal over southern New England during
this time. However there will be a brief cool down Sunday across
eastern MA and RI as a shallow cool airmass invades this area
behind a backdoor cold front. Otherwise much of this forecast
period will be warmer than normal (normal highs around 70, normal
lows around 50).
As for rain chances...a prefrontal trough will enter western
portions of MA and CT Friday. However rising heights and
increasing anticyclonic mid level flow will likely suppress most
convective development. Likewise on Sat with the ridge continuing
to build and heights reaching +2 standard deviations above normal
over the northeast. By late Sat and into Sunday the backdoor front
provides surface convergence and shallow low level forcing first
north of MA Sat and then across much of the region Sunday. However
large amplitude ridge over the region along with mid level
anticyclonic flow may suppress much of the convection once again.
Thus model guidance is likely too wet especially the 12z GFS.
Therefore have undercut guidance from chance to slight chance pops
Fri/Sat and Sun. Greatest risk (albeit low) of seeing any
showers/thunderstorms Fri/Sat & Sunday will likely be across
western portions of MA and CT. Thus a washout is not expected
just isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms well
inland.
Mon and Tue of next week become interesting as area of convection
currently northeast of the bahamas advects northwestward around
the subtropical ridge into the mid Atlantic region. Then it
becomes a question if the upstream northern stream trough has
sufficient amplitude to capture this area tropical moisture and
advect it into southern New England. 00z GEFS and 00z EPS both
suggest bulk of tropical moisture remains offshore or just clips
south coast of New England and bulk of convection from northern
stream trough remains northwest across NY state and VT. Given the
time range and uncertainty chance pops seems reasonable here.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
1030 PM Update...
Overnight...High confidence. VFR. Light W-SW winds shift to W-NW
across N MA after 06Z-08Z.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Sea breezes will develop early on
both coasts.
Thursday night...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for
much of the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT
-SHRA/TSRA across W MA/N CT.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday...MVFR conditions likely with low risk of a few brief
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also, some patchy
ground fog possible in the typically prone locations very early
Fri AM. Moderate to high forecast confidence.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Any early MVFR conditions
should quickly lift to VFR by midday. Low risk of a few afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms well inland.
Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR likely with low risk of IFR in
spots. A few thunderstorms also possible Sun afternoon across the
interior.
Monday...Low confidence given time range and weather pattern. VFR
likely but period of MVFR in low risk of scattered showers/
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria
through Thursday night.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Then winds become ssw Sunday
into Tue as front lifts north as a warm front.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT... not much change to the forecast at this time
with weak frontal boundary drifting southward with some isolated
showers. The other batch of showers across Litchfield County
continues to dissipate. So just FEW-SCT clouds, mainly the mid
level variety, to continue this evening. A period of clearing is
expected overnight before some increase in clouds arrives from
upstream.
Prev Disc...A weak cold front continues to move across eastern NY
and western New England with a band of clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles from the Capital Region north...and a wind shift
from the south to southwest to the west to northwest. Some wind
gusts have been close to 30 kts...and temps spiked into the upper
80s to 90F /KPOU/ ahead of the front. The low-levels remain dry
with sfc dewpts in the 40s to l50s. That will change FRI into the
holiday weekend.
The boundary will stall over eastern NY and south-central New
England. There is no clean synoptic forcing with the front...so we
expect the isolated showers to die off with the daytime
heating...and variable cloudy conditions to persist tonight. The
winds will become light and variable which will allow temps to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s in many of the valley
spots...and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tomorrow...Most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it
will take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.
Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.
Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpts into
the lower to mids 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.
Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to continue with the potential for some
mist/fog mainly at KGFL. There will be an increase in clouds late
tonight and through Thursday along with the chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon. For now, we will place VCSH.
Winds will diminish from the westerly direction around 10kts to
light and variable tonight. Then a gradual shift to the south-
southeast less than 10kts Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.
The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.
A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.
As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south and east through tonight
followed by a weak cold front crossing the area on Thursday. This
front then lifts north as a warm front Thursday night, with high
pressure building in behind the front through Saturday night. A
series of frontal boundaries then impact the area from Sunday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With high pressure translating off the southeast coast, a sw flow
is setting up across the region. The pressure gradient is weak
enough and enough land sea temperature differential has led to sea
breeze circulations keeping coastal locations relatively cooler
than places farther inland. Temperatures are well into the 80s
across the region and will reach near 90 for some locations. Sky
conditions are sunny without much of any clouds with ridging and
thereby subsidence aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints were
slightly adjusted to better match observed trends with otherwise
no other remarkable changes made to the forecast database.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Deep layered ridging remains in control tonight and Thursday. It
will be dry tonight, with only some high clouds around. However, a
700-500 hPa shortwaves passes over the top of the ridge, and
through the area Thursday afternoon. This, coupled with surface
based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, Showalter Indices from -2 to 2, and
20-25kt of Bulk shear over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, warrants
slight chance to chance pops in that region.
It should be noted that the ECMWF suggests that there should be
sufficient subsidence under the ridge to keep things dry
throughout the area on Thursday. The GFS however suggests fairly
extensive convection over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, with the
NAM somewhat in between (though closer to the ECMWF than the
GFS). Noting, that in addition to the passing shortwave, will also
have a cold front sinking south into the region. Based on this, it
appears there is enough forcing to warrant pops at this time.
However, there is still the potential for no precipitation at all
on Thursday.
For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values around 10-15 degrees above
normal. A blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance, NAM 2-meter temperatures
and a mix down from 850-750 hPa, per BUFKIT soundings, was used
for highs on Thursday. Highs should be around 15 degrees above
normal, but probably a degree or so lower than today. If the more
extensive convection suggested by the GFS plays out, highs,
especially over western areas, might need to be lowered by at
least 5 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary lifts north of the area as a warm front Thursday
night. A southerly flow and ridging aloft will allow for the
above normal temperatures to continue Friday and Saturday. It will
also mean a noticeable increase in humidity as inland areas will
see dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s by Friday afternoon,
mainly away from the coast. The relatively cool ocean waters will
keep temperatures and dewpoints down along coastal areas. However,
temperatures across central Nassau and Suffolk may reach the upper
70s to near 80 on both Friday and Saturday.
The warm front then approaches our area again late Saturday night
into Sunday morning as a back door cold front. High pressure behind
this cold front over southeastern Canada slips off the New England
coast and into the western Atlantic during this time period. This
high is weaker than in previous model runs, and thus will not push
as far into our area as previously forecast. This will help to keep
the frontal boundary in the vicinity through Monday morning.
Sunday`s temperature may be a difficult one depending on which side
of the front we will be on.
We will be warm sectored on Monday. However, clouds and will keep
temperatures down.
A cold front then approaches for Tuesday.
Something to watch is the disturbance well off the Southeast coast.
Models show this disturbance moving inland over the Southeast coast
and having little, if any, impact for our area through the forecast
period. However, moisture from this system could make its way into
our area on Tuesday, but right now it looks like a low chance of
that happening. It is still a few days out with a good deal of
uncertainty in the forecast.
As far as rainfall, nothing looks organized for the long term.
There is a fair amount of moisture available given the humid airmass
and surface based CAPE values are high for the afternoons from
Friday through Monday, but lift does not look overly impressive.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible for areas north and
west of NYC Friday and Saturday. Then there is at least a slight
chance for the entire area on Sunday with the approach of the back
door cold front, which will remain in the vicinity through Monday.
Continued unsettled for Tuesday with the approach of the cold front
from the west. None of these days are expected to be a washout, just
passing showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today.
VFR forecast.
West winds 8-12 kt will back to the SW through this afternoon.
Gusts 17-19 kt through this afternoon.
SW winds 5-10 kt this evening at KNYC terminals and LGT/VRB
elsewhere. Afternoon sea breezes expected on Thursday.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 18-22 kt this afternoon. Sea
breeze also could back winds to the South through this evening.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might back
closer to 250-230 magnetic this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KISP TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might
back closer to 230-210 magnetic this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Thursday through Monday...
.Thursday afternoon...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazards are expected today with sub SCA conditions as high
pressure builds south of the waters.
Outside of afternoon seabreezes bring gusts to around 20 kt to the
New York Bight Region this afternoon and Thursday, a light to
moderate pressure gradient over the area will keep winds to 15 kt
or less through Sunday. With no significant swell forecast, these
relatively light winds will keep seas below Small Craft Advisory
criteria as well throughout the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through Thursday morning. Scattered to Isolated Showers and
Thunderstorms, mainly from NYC on N/W Thursday afternoon/evening
could bring less than 1/2 inch of rain to that area.
There are no significant hydrologic impacts expected from Thursday
Night into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/Maloit/JP
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move southward from the Saint Lawrence Valley
this afternoon. This boundary will eventually stall across the
region tonight then move back north as a warm front late in the
week. A large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather as we
head into the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 159 PM EDT...High pressure is ridging in from the
south...as a cold front has become stationary near the St Lawrence
River Valley. Temps are exceeding current forecasted values...so
have increased 2 to 3 degrees with mid and upper 80s possible in
the Hudson River Valley. A few showers are possible for the
western Adirondacks with a weak disturbance ahead of the front.
Slight chc pops were kept in there. Better Chances for any
convection should be limited to northern New York and the
Adirondacks in the vicinity of the boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any convection will dissipate quickly after sunset. We will be
left with a clear to partly cloudy night with a summery feel, as
low temperatures only dip to around 50 in the coolest spots, 55-60
in most areas, warmest right in the Capital region. The wind will
become light and once again there could be a few patches of fog
around daybreak.
We continue to see some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage
of clouds and how extensive any shower or thunderstorm activity
will be on Thursday and Friday. It looks as if a weak boundary
and another disturbance could trigger some convection later
Thursday as dewpoints increase into the 60s, although SBCAPES do
not look that high (500-1000 J/KG). Most of the day will be dry
and there will a good of deal sunshine as well. Very warm
temperatures will likely be a point or two higher than Wednesday.
Scattered convection could linger into Thursday night as the
aforementioned boundary slowly lifts northward as warm front
through our region.
By Friday, 500 MB heights continue to rise as an impressive ridge
builds just to our south, reaching close to 590 hectopascals , not
too shabby for May. Rising heights tend to induce subsidence and
capping.
Still most models do indicate a scattered of showers and
thunderstorms for mainly Friday afternoon so will continue with
low chances of thunderstorms. It will be another very warm to hot
day with highs 85-90 in the valleys, 80-85 higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through
Monday with a chance of showers on Tuesday. The activity will be
most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. The forecast
area will be impacted by ridge rollers as moisture rides along the
top of the ridge which will be anchored to our south. Sunday and
Monday are the days during which the thunderstorm activity looks
most widespread as a back door cold front drops southwest on Sunday
and returns north as a warm front on Monday.
Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 70s with mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with
lows Sunday night and Monday night in the mid 50s to around 60.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, heights will continue to rise as ridging builds in through
the overnight into Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is
approaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley. This boundary will
move gradually southeastward across the region through Thursday.
Chances for any convection through the TAF period 18z/Thu should
be limited to the northern New York in the vicinity of the boundary
this afternoon, north of KGFL.
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, 18Z/Thu. The exception
will be the possibility will be for MVFR due to fog at KGFL late
tonight.
Westerly winds with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon will diminish
this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday night through Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...and mainly PM TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across the
Adirondacks, it should be a dry warm day today. RH values will
drop into the 30s in most valley locations this afternoon, but
stay in the 40s across most of the higher terrain. A west wind
will average 10 mph later in the morning through early evening.
There will be some gusts to 20 mph across the higher elevations,
Mohawk valley and Greater Capital District.
A Bermuda high will take control of our weather for the next
several upcoming day. This feature will bring very warm
increasingly humid days and nights will full recovery. There will
be chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Saturday.
Today looks mainly dry outside a few possible showers and
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. As a Bermuda high forms, we
can expect warm and increasingly humid weather Thursday through
the weekend.
While most of that time will be rainfree, there is an increasing
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. These look
scattered but as PWATS increase well over an inch, isolated heavy
rainfall will possible by Friday afternoon.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring very warm weather to most of the
region through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times
along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to the region sometime on Sunday, but temperatures should
rebound to at or above normal by early next week. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and
again this weekend but the vast majority of this time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Summer temperatures push in today across the region***
1030 AM Update...Most of the fog has cleared out across the area
with the exception of one band of fog that is hugging the south
coast of RI and moving eastward towards Buzzards Bay and the Cape.
If it continues on this trajectory without burning off, portions
of Cape Cod along the Cape Cod Canal as well as Martha`s Vineyard
and the Elizabeth Islands will see a period of fog later this
morning into early afternoon. Visibilities have been generally
about a mile with this bank of fog on land, it may be more dense
over the water. Made minor adjustments to the temperatures to ease
them back as they have not jumped up as quickly as forecast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will cross the region by
midday through the afternoon with NW winds aloft. Warm core H925
temps will push across the region, up to +19C to +22C by this
afternoon. Once skies become mostly sunny, temps will rise quickly
with excellent low and mid level mixing in place. Expect temps to
top off in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots touching 90.
However, dewpoints falling into the 40s will result in low
humidity levels.
High clouds will start to push in from the NW during the mid and
late afternoon ahead of H5 short wave across far northern New
England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
Most of the energy from a weak H5 shortwave trough will remain
across northern New England. NW flow keeps dry conditions across
the region tonight. The mid and upper level clouds will dissipate
overnight as SW winds shift back to W-NW and diminish. It will
remain mild, with temperatures only bottoming out from the mid 50s
well inland to lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain.
Thursday...
A cold front will slowly push S across the region during the day.
Clouds will push in from the W as the front moves in during the
afternoon. Short range models vary in their solutions, with mainly
dry conditions through the day offered by the ECMWF, but the GFS
tends to bring some moisture with a weak H5 shortwave in the W-NW
flow aloft. Have mentioned only slight chance PoPs moving into W
MA/N Central CT during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Have noted marginal instability with this system, plus another
day of warm temperatures, so have mentioned widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.
It will be another warm day, with somewhat higher dewpoints making
it feel a bit more humid. Highs will again be in the mid-upper 80s
away from the immediate coast, with a few spots possibly hitting
90 again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Friday: Very warm w/highs mid-upper 80s northwest of BOS-PVD but
a bit cooler across southeast MA/RI
* Saturday: Hot and a bit humid w/highs mainly upper 80s to lower
90s away from the immediate south coast
* Sunday: Temps uncertain depending on timing of cold front, warmest
readings likely CT River Valley w/coolest across Eastern MA coast
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri and again Sat/Sun
but the vast majority of this time will be dry
* At or above normal temperatures likely return early next week
Details...
Thursday night...Shortwave energy and a burst of elevated
instability may result in a few showers/t-storms Thursday night,
mainly northwest of a Boston to Providence line. If any activity is
able to develop, it will be short-lived with the majority of the
night ending up dry. Low temps mainly in the upper 50s to the lower
60s. May see some patchy ground fog develop late in the typically
prone locations.
Friday...Surface winds shift to the south-southwest behind the
warm front as 850T rise to around +14C. Plenty of sunshine should
allow highs to warm into the middle to upper 80s northwest of a
Boston to Providence line. Southeast of this line...a cooling
marine layer may hold highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry weather will dominate on Friday, but enough instability
combined with a pre-frontal trough may allow a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across W MA/N CT Fri afternoon
and evening. Not sure if this activity gets into our region or
stays to our west, but highest risk will be across northwest MA.
Shear is rather weak so even if we see a few thunderstorms in our
western zones, overall severe weather threat is rather low.
Saturday...A hot and somewhat humid day is on tap to kick off the
Memorial Day Weekend. 850T around +16C, plenty of sunshine, and a
westerly component to the surface winds should allow for high temps
to reach into the upper 80s to the lower 90s away from the immediate
south coast. Dewpoints between 60 and 65 across most of the region
will make it feel a bit humid.
While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening with a
pre-frontal trough and CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG.
This will be mainly to the northwest of a Boston to Providence
line. Forcing will be rather weak, so areal coverage of any
activity that develops may remain limited. Severe weather threat
also looks rather low at this time with rather weak 0 to 6 km
shear, but too early to rule out a strong thunderstorm or two
given decent instability.
Sunday...Low confidence on high temperatures given a subtle change
in timing of the backdoor cold front will make a big difference in
the exact outcome. We can say that the warmest readings will be
across the lower CT River Valley and coolest along the eastern MA
coast. Good shot though at the CT River Valley seeing high temps
reaching well into the 80s, while the eastern MA coast has
afternoon temps falling into the 60s. A few showers will remain
possible and perhaps even a couple of t-storms across the interior
if enough instability develops during the afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday...Backdoor cold front does not appear as strong
on the latest model runs. It looks to washout across the region
early next week. GFS washes out on Monday while the ECMWF waits
until Tuesday. Probably should see the return to above normal temps
by Tue with rather warm temps aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. VFR conditions expected the rest of the
day, except on the Cape and Islands where fog may reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds 10 kt or
less.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. An ESE sea breeze has
developed and is expected to continue into early afternoon.
Southwesterly winds should overcome this by late afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR
conditions likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible
in a few brief showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also,
some patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations
very early Fri AM.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions likely
dominate but a brief period of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys possible in a
few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions may develop from east
to west behind a backdoor cold front. A few thunderstorms also
possible Sun afternoon across the interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. W winds up to 10 kt will back to SW
10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt on the southern
outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less. Patchy fog mainly along the south
coast will result in reduced visibilities at times.
Tonight...High confidence. Light southwesterly winds become
westerly, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer waters this
evening. Seas 4 ft or less.
Thursday...High confidence. Light W winds shifting to S in the
afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Expect temperatures will rise quickly, soaring well into
the 80s to near 90 across most locations except cooler along the
immediate south coast. These temperatures will combine with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s resulting in afternoon RH values down
to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly wind gusts up
to 20 to perhaps briefly 25 mph are anticipated. Given Tuesday`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will fall short of needing fire
weather headlines. Many locations are close to or already at full
green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM Update...
H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.
Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.
Previous discussion...
With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***
Today ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.
Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.
Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.
IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. otherwise VFR.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence.
Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.
Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.
Tonight...High confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
this morning for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.
However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.
At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.
We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.
As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.
KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.
Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
517 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Quick update to expand/move up the chance of showers over western
ND from now through the early evening in response to the showers
developing out of the cumulus field in southwestern ND through 22
UTC. We have a slight chance of thunderstorms expanding northward
with time, too, but so far the dry boundary layer is tending to
minimize instability, updraft depth, and thus lightning chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Thunderstorm chances highlight the short term.
An upper level low currently located over southern Saskatchewan
will keep the region in southwest cyclonic flow. Most of western
and central North Dakota will remain dry through the afternoon,
but precipitation chances will increase through the late afternoon
and evening hours from west to east as a surface trough and
associated upper level short wave approaches from Montana.
Tonight, showers and some thunderstorms will develop in the
southwest and spread east overnight. Any thunderstorms that
develop will remain sub severe with modest CAPE and shear
forecast.
Wednesday, a more potent shortwave and surface low will approach
the Dakotas as the upper low approaches, bringing widespread rain
and scattered thunderstorms. The 12z NAM and GFS iterations show
more instability than previously forecast. If these solutions were
to verify, potentially anywhere from 1000 J/KG to 2500 J/KG of
MLCAPE will be in place by 21z, along a line from near Bismarck to
Jamestown and south to the state border. This instability will be
collocated with deep layer shear values of 25-35 knots. These
parameters would suggest a conditional severe weather threat in
south central and southeast North Dakota. However, quite a bit of
uncertainty remains about how much destabilization will actually
occur. Widespread precipitation is likely over the area early
Wednesday, potentially limiting daytime heating. If we can get
some breaks in the clouds, then some storms could produce some
marginally severe hail and winds. SPC has placed parts of south
central and southeastern North Dakota in a marginal risk of severe
weather, which matches up well with our current thinking. Clusters
of multicell or marginal supercell structures seem to be the most
likely storm modes.
Overnight Wednesday, rain chances will continue on the back side
of the surface low.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Persistant southwesterly flow remains through the period with a
variety of short waves sliding through the area. Models are having
a tough time timing out the individual waves, so most periods will
have a broad-brushed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
VFR conditions and generally light southwest winds will dominate
the first part of the forecast period. As we turn to late
afternoon and the early evening hours...chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase from west to east and
continue through the overnight hours and Wednesday. Periods of
MVFR ceilings/visibilities and gustier winds can be expected in
heavier showers or thunderstorms.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Thunderstorm chances highlight the short term.
An upper level low currently located over southern Saskatchewan
will keep the region in southwest cyclonic flow. Most of western
and central North Dakota will remain dry through the afternoon,
but precipitation chances will increase through the late afternoon
and evening hours from west to east as a surface trough and
associated upper level short wave approaches from Montana.
Tonight, showers and some thunderstorms will develop in the
southwest and spread east overnight. Any thunderstorms that
develop will remain sub severe with modest CAPE and shear
forecast.
Wednesday, a more potent shortwave and surface low will approach
the Dakotas as the upper low approaches, bringing widespread rain
and scattered thunderstorms. The 12z NAM and GFS iterations show
more instability than previously forecast. If these solutions were
to verify, potentially anywhere from 1000 J/KG to 2500 J/KG of
MLCAPE will be in place by 21z, along a line from near Bismarck to
Jamestown and south to the state border. This instability will be
collocated with deep layer shear values of 25-35 knots. These
parameters would suggest a conditional severe weather threat in
south central and southeast North Dakota. However, quite a bit of
uncertainty remains about how much destabilization will actually
occur. Widespread precipitation is likely over the area early
Wednesday, potentially limiting daytime heating. If we can get
some breaks in the clouds, then some storms could produce some
marginally severe hail and winds. SPC has placed parts of south
central and southeastern North Dakota in a marginal risk of severe
weather, which matches up well with our current thinking. Clusters
of multicell or marginal supercell structures seem to be the most
likely storm modes.
Overnight Wednesday, rain chances will continue on the back side
of the surface low.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Persistant southwesterly flow remains through the period with a
variety of short waves sliding through the area. Models are having
a tough time timing out the individual waves, so most periods will
have a broad-brushed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
VFR conditions and generally light southwest winds will dominate
the first part of the forecast period. As we turn to late
afternoon and the early evening hours...chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase from west to east and
continue through the overnight hours and Wednesday. Periods of
MVFR ceilings/visibilities and gustier winds can be expected in
heavier showers or thunderstorms.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Main impacts through the short term will be next rain event
Wednesday-Wednesday night. Models in better agreement through
Wednesday with biggest differences in rain potential/placement in
later periods where guidance is all over the place.
Uncertainty continues with TSRA potential remainder of afternoon
into the evening. Surface wind field remains weak with minimal
upper support. There is modest instability/cape and no cap in
place over all but DVL Basin. Cu fields have been developing from
far SE ND into west central and northern MN so have some low pops
in this region as echoes begin to develop. Expect what ever
develops will weaken with loss of heating. Later tonight models
slower in lifting rain band northward with next wave so trimmed
back pops until closer to daybreak. Minimum temperatures should be
similar to last night.
More significant short wave and associated surface low will lift
NE Wednesday into the FA. Arcing band of shra/TSRA will lift
northward through the FA. Enough instability/cape and shear along
with low level convergence for severe storm potential. Feel there
will be enough clouds to hold temperatures into the 70s.
Best rain potential will shift into the northern FA Wednesday
night as low and wave lift north.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Low will wobble around the northern forecast area Thursday for
continued rain potential, mainly across the north. Uncertain about
coverage at this point so held with chance pops.
Unsettled weather continues into Friday as southern stream upper
low begins to lift northward.
As southern stream upper low lifts northward into the N central US
rain chances will continue into the holiday weekend. The best
potential looks to be Saturday surrounded by lesser rain chances.
Does not look like a wash for the weekend and any breaks in the
clouds will allow temperatures to recover into mainly the 70s.
Conditions begin to improve Mon-Tue as remnants of the upper low
lifts ne. Temperatures to remain at or a bit above average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Wind speeds look to remain pretty light until Wednesday morning,
when they will take on more of a steady SE direction. Not much for
clouds out there now, but expect at least some mid level clouds to
move in later tonight into early Wednesday. At this point will leave
any clouds in the VFR range. Not a lot of confidence in the pcpn
forecast so have left VCSH for most locations by Wednesday morning.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Godon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
The current forecast looks to be on track. Just blended the latest
observations to the current forecast. No major changes needed.
UPDATE Issued at 853 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Quiet weather remains this morning as upper low continues to spin
over southern Saskatchewan. Latest guidance continues to show the
possibility of some showers/weak thunderstorms developing over
northwest North Dakota in cyclonic flow around the low. Updates
have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Quick update to blend to observed trends. Overall, the previous
forecast is well supported by the 06-10 UTC suites. Did introduce
afternoon PoPs across the far southwest given agreement among the
09 UTC HRRR/Experimental HRRR and the 00 UTC Hi-Res Window WRFs,
all suggesting possible isolated high based convective
development with a few leading impulses propagating northeast out
of the southwest CONUS low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
Thunderstorm potential tonight highlights the short term
forecast.
Morning elevated convection across the James River Valley and far
south central North Dakota is expected to become focused across
the northern Red River Valley after 10 UTC per observed radar
trends through 08 UTC and the 06-07 UTC HRRR iterations.
Otherwise, a dry day is forecast with the exception of far
northwest North Dakota where diurnally driven scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the upper level
low.
For tonight, the 00-06 UTC high resolution suites are in agreement
on convection developing this afternoon across eastern Wyoming in
association with the shortwave across the southwest CONUS this
morning. The consensus is for this convection to potentially
propagate northeast into western and central North Dakota through
the night aided by modest low level warm air advection and
moisture transport along and east of the inverted trough extending
into southwest North Dakota. Given marginal moisture and shear,
severe weather is not expected.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016
An active weather pattern through the weekend highlights the
extended forecast.
The 00 UTC global and ensemble suites are in agreement on
potential phasing Wednesday across the Northern Plains of the
upper level low across southern Saskatchewan this morning with the
aforementioned shortwave from the short term. This would favor
likely showers and thunderstorms. Will disregard the 00 UTC NAM
given likely convective feedback driving is anomalously deep low
Wednesday night into Thursday. Overall, cloud cover from morning
convection may limit insolation and instability build up through
the day and the severe convective threat. Thus, the SPC Day 2
Convective Outlook has a marginal risk only across the far
southern James River Valley of central North Dakota. The active
weather pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continues into the weekend under favorable southwest flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016
VFR conditions and generally light southwest winds will dominate
the first part of the forecast period. As we turn to late
afternoon and the early evening hours...chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase from west to east and
continue through the overnight hours and Wednesday. Periods of
MVFR ceilings/visibilities and gustier winds can be expected in
heavier showers or thunderstorms.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
454 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm to hot weather will continue through Saturday, but it
will be a bit cooler at times on the immediate coast. A backdoor
cold front will bring cooler weather to eastern MA Sunday with
warm weather continuing elsewhere. Dry weather dominates through
Sunday other than isolated showers/thunderstorms at times. Near or
above normal temperatures continue for much of next week and there
is the potential for a period of more widespread showers Monday
and/or Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy high clouds continue to stream across the region early
this morning as seen on latest IR satellite imagery. Also noting
some patchy fog across N central MA in the normally susceptible
valleys, as temps have fallen to the lower-mid 50s close to dewpt
values at 08z.
As high pressure ridge builds S of the region, expect a general
light pressure gradient. This will allow sea breezes to develop
along the coast by late morning through the mid to late afternoon.
H5 ridging also builds E today, with H5 heights increasing to 580
to 582 dm by this afternoon. With W-SW winds aloft, H85 temps will
increase to +14C to +16C this afternoon, and up to +22C across
western areas at H925! Very warm airmass indeed.
Expect temps to rise to 85-90 away from the coast, but held down
to the 70s to around 80 along the immediate coast with the sea
breezes. Temps may rise quickly late this afternoon as the sea
breeze kicks out, so readings may rise there as well /from about
Marshfield and Boston northward with W winds/.
With the slow moving or stalling weak front across the region, there
may be just enough lift along with the diurnal heating and marginal
instability to cause some airmass showers/thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon across central and western interior areas. Not
expecting widespread activity, but can not rule out spotty
convection. Have slight chance POPs going there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tonight...The weak stalled front should also lift N-NE as winds
become more S-SW and the ridge pushes offshore. Noting a weak mid
level short wave in the SW flow at the surface and aloft. Some
timing issues on the short range models in moving this E out of
the Appalachians and mid Atlc states. Have kept similar timing
going from the previous forecast and kept mention of slight chance
to low chance POPs, with only an isolated mention of thunder,
though think this will be very spotty.
With ocean temps mainly in the lower-mid 50s and the onshore
winds, expect overnight lows to fall back to 55-60 across eastern
and central areas, ranging to the lower-mid 60s across the CT
valley.
Friday...Expect another warm day with continued S-SW winds on
back side of high pres ridge over the western Atlc. With the high
in place to the E, weak trough will remain across western areas.
Also noting rather good instability with CAPEs rising to 1200-1400
J/kg as well as K indices in the low-mid 30s and surface based LIs
on around -1 to -2. So have kept chance POPs going from the
interior Merrimack valley across central MA to the CT valley, with
the best shot from late Friday morning through the afternoon.
Temps will be in the 80s away from the immediate coast, holding in
the 70s along S coastal areas with the onshore winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Hot Sat w/highs mainly 90-95 away from the immediate coast.
* Near or above normal temperatures through much of next week
* Mainly dry Sat/Sun other than iso showers/t-storms but activity
could be a bit more organized Sun afternoon across interior
* Its possible a more widespread area of showers affects the region
Mon and/or Tue but that remains highly uncertain
Details...
Friday night...While it remains uncertain if any isolated convection
will affect the region late Friday it should diminish during the
evening hours. Otherwise, dry weather with upper level ridging in
control. Low temps will only drop to between 60 and 65 in most
locations. Some patchy ground fog will likely develop in the
typically prone locations given increasing low level moisture.
Saturday...Unseasonably hot weather anticipated across most of our
region. 850T around +16c with plenty of sunshine and a well mixed
atmosphere should yield highs between 90 and 95 in most locations
away from the immediate coast where localized sea breezes may
develop. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make it feel a
bit muggy.
The majority of Saturday will be dry, but there is the risk for some
isolated to widely scattered convection Saturday afternoon and
evening. As usual, mesoscale processes will dictate what happens
and its not clear cut. A weak pre-frontal trough will combined with
modest instability with Capes increasing to between 1000 and 2000
J/KG. Upper level ridging and lack of forcing will certainly be
limiting factors. Sea breeze convergence and terrain impacts might
be enough to trigger isolated to widely scattered convection Sat
afternoon and evening. 0 to 6 KM shear is weak, so if anything
develops the overall severe weather threat would be low.
However, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out
with decent instability and potentially large temp/dewpoint spreads.
Very localized heavy rainfall would also also be possible given any
storm that is able to develop will be slow moving.
In a nutshell, much of the region will likely remain dry Saturday
but isolated slow moving showers/t-storms with very localized heavy
rainfall can not be ruled out.
Sunday...
The backdoor cold front pushes across the region from east to west.
Timing of the front remains uncertain and a 6 hour shift in either
direction will make a huge difference in high temperatures. Overall,
thinking interior gets very warm while cooler air works into Eastern
MA. A few showers may accompany the cold front, but will have to
watch for a bit more organized area of scattered
showers/thunderstorms with very localized heavy rainfall across
Western MA/Northern CT Sunday afternoon. This will depend upon how
much instability develops ahead of the backdoor front and its exact
timing.
Monday and Tuesday...
A disturbance currently northeast of the Bahamas will track
northwest and probably not directly impact our region. However, a
plume of its tropical moisture may get pulled north into southern
New England ahead of a cold front. Low confidence on how this all
plays out, but there is at least a risk for a more
organized/widespread area of rain showers. Temps will remain near
or above normal and exact temps be determined by timing of potential
clouds/showers.
Wednesday...
Low confidence this far out but do not see any organized
precipitation threats. Temps near or above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term...
Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog with local MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS across interior valleys. Light W-SW or calm winds
shift to W-NW across N MA.
Today...High confidence. VFR. Expect sea breezes to develop by
mid to late morning on both coasts, lasting through mid to late
afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for much of
the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly across W MA/N central CT, but briefly may reach into NE
CT/central MA this evening. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR conditions
after 07Z-08Z across interior valleys.
Friday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR
conditions with low risk of a few brief scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly
across the interior. Also, patchy ground fog possible in the
typically prone locations through mid morning.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday night and Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR
other than a few hours of patchy ground fog toward daybreak Sat in
the typically prone locations. Isolated showers/t-storms may also
result in brief/localized lower conditions.
Sunday...Low to moderate confidence. May see some MVFR CIGS work
into northern and eastern MA behind the backdoor cold front.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of any widely scattered convection.
Monday...Low confidence. Potential for a period of MVFR-IFR
conditions in low clouds and some showers but that remains highly
uncertain.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.
Today and tonight...Expect S-SE winds less than 15 kt and seas 4
ft or less. May see some visibility restrictions in patchy fog
late tonight along the coast.
Friday...S-SW winds 15 kt or less. Some gusts may approach 20 kt
on the near shore waters during the afternoon. Seas remain 4 ft or
less. May see local visibility restrictions in patchy early
morning fog.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through the period. Biggest concern is Saturday
afternoon along the south coast...where some near shore lower 20
knot wind gusts may occur resulting in choppy seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
415 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 415 AM a tranquil summer like night continued as a few patchy
clouds, associated with a very weak frontal passage, were moving
through. However, no shower activity was being picked up by any of
the radars.
Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.
For the rest of the overnight, tranquil conditions will continue.
Temperatures will drop another degree or two, meaning temperatures
well end up above normal for late May. Patches of fog will form near
some bodies of water, and cooler mountain valleys, but that will be
the exception not the rule.
It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.
By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.
It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.
By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.
Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.
Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.
Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.
Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.
Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.
There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.
A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. By that time, it will have
more moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower
threats will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this
afternoon into the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs
after 22Z and kept flying conditions at VFR.
A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.
The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.
Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.
Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.
The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.
Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.
PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.
Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
238 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring very warm
weather to most of the region through Saturday, along with
increasing humidity. It will be cooler at times along the
immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler weather
to Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts Sunday with warm weather
continuing elsewhere. Warmer than normal temperatures overspread
the remainder of the area by early next week. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and again
this weekend but the vast majority of the time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
210 AM Update...
Leading edge of high clouds moving into portions of the CT valley
at 06Z as seen on latest IR satellite imagery, well ahead of
approaching H5 short wave in the general W flow aloft. A weak, dry
cold front pretty much stalled across S VT/NH into S coastal ME.
Little if any moisture with this system, so will remain dry
through sunrise.
Temps remain warm across the region early this morning, mainly in
the mid-upper 50s across N central and W MA, ranging to around 70
in the urban centers at 06Z. May see some patchy fog develop
through around 12Z as temps fall close to the dewpts across the
normally susceptible inland valley locations, especially the mid
CT valley in MA.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Today...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level
ridge centers itself over southern New England. With a much weaker
gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam
dunk. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but
still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under
mostly sunny skies.
Tonight...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall
conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will
go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the
upper 50s to lower 60s for most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 pm update...
Highlights...
* Temperatures warmer than normal much of the time
* Other than isolated showers/thunderstorms many hours of dry
weather this period
Subtropical ridge builds northwestward from western Atlantic into
the northeast late this week into the weekend and lingers into at
least early next week. This will result in temperatures warmer
than normal much of the time along with mainly dry weather. Both
the 00z GEFS and 00z EPS offer 850 temp anomalies of +1 to +2
standard deviations above normal over southern New England during
this time. However there will be a brief cool down Sunday across
eastern MA and RI as a shallow cool airmass invades this area
behind a backdoor cold front. Otherwise much of this forecast
period will be warmer than normal (normal highs around 70, normal
lows around 50).
As for rain chances...a prefrontal trough will enter western
portions of MA and CT Friday. However rising heights and
increasing anticyclonic mid level flow will likely suppress most
convective development. Likewise on Sat with the ridge continuing
to build and heights reaching +2 standard deviations above normal
over the northeast. By late Sat and into Sunday the backdoor front
provides surface convergence and shallow low level forcing first
north of MA Sat and then across much of the region Sunday. However
large amplitude ridge over the region along with mid level
anticyclonic flow may suppress much of the convection once again.
Thus model guidance is likely too wet especially the 12z GFS.
Therefore have undercut guidance from chance to slight chance pops
Fri/Sat and Sun. Greatest risk (albeit low) of seeing any
showers/thunderstorms Fri/Sat & Sunday will likely be across
western portions of MA and CT. Thus a washout is not expected
just isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms well
inland.
Mon and Tue of next week become interesting as area of convection
currently northeast of the bahamas advects northwestward around
the subtropical ridge into the mid Atlantic region. Then it
becomes a question if the upstream northern stream trough has
sufficient amplitude to capture this area tropical moisture and
advect it into southern New England. 00z GEFS and 00z EPS both
suggest bulk of tropical moisture remains offshore or just clips
south coast of New England and bulk of convection from northern
stream trough remains northwest across NY state and VT. Given the
time range and uncertainty chance pops seems reasonable here.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog with local MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS across interior valleys through 12Z. Light W-SW or
calm winds shift to W-NW across N MA.
Today...High confidence. VFR. Expect sea breezes to develop by mid
to late morning on both coasts, lasting through mid to late
afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for much of
the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly across W MA/N central CT, but briefly may reach into NE
CT/central MA this evening. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR conditions
after 07Z-08Z across interior valleys.
Friday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR
conditions with low risk of a few brief scattered SHRA/TSRA
mainly across the interior. Also, patchy ground fog possible in
the typically prone locations through mid morning.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday night...Moderate to high confidence. Leftover MVFR
conditions in isolated SHRA/TSRA in the evening, then mainly VFR.
May see late night patchy fog with local MVFR-IFR conditions.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Any early MVFR conditions
should quickly lift to VFR by midday. Low risk of a few afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms well inland.
Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR likely with low risk of IFR in
spots. A few thunderstorms also possible Sun afternoon across the
interior.
Monday...Low confidence given time range and weather pattern. VFR
likely but period of MVFR in low risk of scattered showers/
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria
through Thursday night.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Then winds become ssw Sunday
into Tue as front lifts north as a warm front.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT...all was quiet on all fronts in spite of a weak
cold front draped over our northern section, slipping southward.
This is a very weak shallow feature, and with very little moisture
or forcing we do not expect any convection to happen tonight.
We will enjoy a mild summery night with lows dipping to around 60
Albany southward in the Hudson valley, 50s most other places with a
few upper 40s across the Adirondacks. The wind will be light or
calm.
Some patches of fog will form, but not as much as last night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Later today...most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it will
take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.
Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.
Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpoints into
the lower to mid 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.
Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.
There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.
A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. Now it will have more
moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower threats
will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into
the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and
kept flying conditions at VFR.
A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.
The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.
A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.
As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens and moves farther offshore through Thursday.
Meanwhile a weak cold front moves in Thursday. This front will back
north as a warm front Thursday Night. A Bermuda high will
then dominate through the weekend, bringing summertime warmth as
a series of weak upper level disturbances touch off convection
each afternoon and early evening. A back door cold front will
approach Sunday into Sunday night, then retreat back north early
next week as a weak front slowly approaches from the west and a
broad area of low pressure slowly approaches from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track. Minor adjustments made to t/td and sky
based on latest obs and trends.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies to start however...high clouds
will begin to spill over the upper ridge axis overnight. Used a
blend of mav/met for lows with manual adjustments up near some
coastal rural locations due to partial onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
For Thursday, some slight ridging takes place aloft with overall the
ridge still exhibiting a rather flat structure. The models are
pointing to a relatively stronger shortwave that will be riding
along the top of the ridge, arriving into western portions of the
region by Thursday Evening. At the surface, high pressure will shift
farther offshore and weaken. A cold front moves across during the
day and weakens as it does so. This will bring some extra clouds
during the day. With the weak pressure gradient, sea breezes set up
sooner with a more southerly component. This will keep coastal
location temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to the previous
day while interior locations will be nearly the same temperatures as
the previous day.
Weather will start out dry with enough subsidence of residual ridging
and then with the approach of the shortwave as well as increasing
instability, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in
the day and evening. The subsidence will still be enough to prevent
much in the way of any convection from developing. With the approach
of the shortwave, places north and west of NYC will have a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day since those
locations will be relatively closer to the shortwave.
For Thursday Night, the shortwave moves across while at the surface,
the weak cold front will move back north as a warm front. The
presence of the frontal boundary and the increased positive
vorticity advection aloft will allow for a relatively greater chance
of showers. Convection with the lack of CAPE will be minimal with
any coverage being isolated.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Earlier forecast reasoning still holds, with summertime warmth
through the weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. A warm
front will clear the entire area Fri morning, and with H8 temps near
16C and H5-10 thicknesses near 570 dm, high temps are likely to
reach the lower 90s both Fri/Sat NW of NYC, with 80s elsewhere
except for the south shore of eastern Long Island. There is a good
chance for late day tstms from NYC north/west as a mid level
disturbance interacts with a lee trough. Wind fields are not
particularly strong aloft, but deep layer shear might still support
a few strong to locally severe storms. Any late convection on
Saturday will be isolated in nature and tied more to differential
heating in/near the higher terrain.
The northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada has
trended faster, which means any associated back door cold front may
not make it into the area at all, or only into eastern CT/Long
Island. So Sunday will still be a warm day, though not quite as warm
as the previous two days. Once again looking mainly at scattered
late day convection tied either to the front or to a lee trough NW
of NYC, and as another weak mid level vort max approaches from the
west.
Monday should be cooler, with more cloud cover as shortwave energy
Atlantic moisture ride up the coast, well in advance of a low off
the Southeast coast, and on the back side of the retreating offshore
ridging. Once this passes, we should return to warm weather and
chances for sct mainly inland late day convection as another upper
ridge moves in from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR forecast.
High pressure builds to the south overnight and
Thursday.
Light west/southwest expected overnight.
Light winds in the morning become south around 10 kt. Sea breezes
are expected by afternoon, sooner across CT terminals.
KLGA may be affected by a sound breeze which may make winds turn
to an east or southeast direction between 12Z and 15Z. However,
there is a low chance of this happening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Friday through Monday...
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
With the pressure gradient overall remaining rather weak...the seas
and wind gusts will stay below SCA criteria through Thursday
Night.
S-SW flow increasing to near 20 kt may bring a brief period of 5-ft
seas to the western ocean waters late day Fri into Fri evening.
Otherwise, expect quiet winds/waves outside of any potential
thunderstorms.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through Thursday
Night.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
with any late day convection, on Friday and Sunday, mainly NW of
NYC. Heavy rain may also be possible on Monday with an upper level
disturbance and Atlantic moisture riding up the coast, but timing
and location are uncertain, and at this time looks likely to pass
just offshore Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...Goodman/JM
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1059 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring very warm
weather to most of the region through Saturday, along with
increasing humidity this weekend. It will be cooler at times along
the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts Sunday with warm
weather continuing elsewhere. Warmer than normal temperatures
overspread the remainder of the area by early next week. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday,
and again this weekend but the vast majority of the time will be
dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...
Band of showers that moved out of the Berkshires late this
afternoon associated with weak short wave moving across the region
had weakened by sunset as they crossed central MA and N central
CT. Some leftover mid and high clouds are also tending to
dissipate as they cross N CT/RI. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and
mild temps at 02Z across the region.
Weak surface high pressure ridge and associated mid level ridging
cross overnight. However, noting some high thin clouds working E
across western NY state on latest IR satellite. Some may filter
into western areas toward sunrise out ahead of next system in the
fast W-NW flow aloft. Also noting weak, dry cold front working
slowly S across S VT/NH with weak surface low off the Maine coast.
Little if any moisture with this system, so not expecting precip
overnight across northern Mass.
General light W-SW wind flow in place across the region along with
patchy clouds. Not expecting temps to fall too much overnight with
the milder wind in place.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current. Temps
were a few degrees milder that previous forecast through 00Z so
adjusted those, but looked like the overnight temps were in good
shape so kept those.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level
ridge centers itself over southern New England. With a much weaker
gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam
dunk. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but
still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under mostly
sunny skies.
Thursday night...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall
conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will
go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the upper
50s to lower 60s for most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 pm update...
Highlights...
* Temperatures warmer than normal much of the time
* Other than isolated showers/thunderstorms many hours of dry
weather this period
Subtropical ridge builds northwestward from western Atlantic into
the northeast late this week into the weekend and lingers into at
least early next week. This will result in temperatures warmer
than normal much of the time along with mainly dry weather. Both
the 00z GEFS and 00z EPS offer 850 temp anomalies of +1 to +2
standard deviations above normal over southern New England during
this time. However there will be a brief cool down Sunday across
eastern MA and RI as a shallow cool airmass invades this area
behind a backdoor cold front. Otherwise much of this forecast
period will be warmer than normal (normal highs around 70, normal
lows around 50).
As for rain chances...a prefrontal trough will enter western
portions of MA and CT Friday. However rising heights and
increasing anticyclonic mid level flow will likely suppress most
convective development. Likewise on Sat with the ridge continuing
to build and heights reaching +2 standard deviations above normal
over the northeast. By late Sat and into Sunday the backdoor front
provides surface convergence and shallow low level forcing first
north of MA Sat and then across much of the region Sunday. However
large amplitude ridge over the region along with mid level
anticyclonic flow may suppress much of the convection once again.
Thus model guidance is likely too wet especially the 12z GFS.
Therefore have undercut guidance from chance to slight chance pops
Fri/Sat and Sun. Greatest risk (albeit low) of seeing any
showers/thunderstorms Fri/Sat & Sunday will likely be across
western portions of MA and CT. Thus a washout is not expected
just isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms well
inland.
Mon and Tue of next week become interesting as area of convection
currently northeast of the bahamas advects northwestward around
the subtropical ridge into the mid Atlantic region. Then it
becomes a question if the upstream northern stream trough has
sufficient amplitude to capture this area tropical moisture and
advect it into southern New England. 00z GEFS and 00z EPS both
suggest bulk of tropical moisture remains offshore or just clips
south coast of New England and bulk of convection from northern
stream trough remains northwest across NY state and VT. Given the
time range and uncertainty chance pops seems reasonable here.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
1030 PM Update...
Overnight...High confidence. VFR. Light W-SW winds shift to W-NW
across N MA after 06Z-08Z.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Sea breezes will develop early on
both coasts.
Thursday night...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for
much of the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT
-SHRA/TSRA across W MA/N CT.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday...MVFR conditions likely with low risk of a few brief
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also, some patchy
ground fog possible in the typically prone locations very early
Fri AM. Moderate to high forecast confidence.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Any early MVFR conditions
should quickly lift to VFR by midday. Low risk of a few afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms well inland.
Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR likely with low risk of IFR in
spots. A few thunderstorms also possible Sun afternoon across the
interior.
Monday...Low confidence given time range and weather pattern. VFR
likely but period of MVFR in low risk of scattered showers/
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria
through Thursday night.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Then winds become ssw Sunday
into Tue as front lifts north as a warm front.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT... not much change to the forecast at this time
with weak frontal boundary drifting southward with some isolated
showers. The other batch of showers across Litchfield County
continues to dissipate. So just FEW-SCT clouds, mainly the mid
level variety, to continue this evening. A period of clearing is
expected overnight before some increase in clouds arrives from
upstream.
Prev Disc...A weak cold front continues to move across eastern NY
and western New England with a band of clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles from the Capital Region north...and a wind shift
from the south to southwest to the west to northwest. Some wind
gusts have been close to 30 kts...and temps spiked into the upper
80s to 90F /KPOU/ ahead of the front. The low-levels remain dry
with sfc dewpts in the 40s to l50s. That will change FRI into the
holiday weekend.
The boundary will stall over eastern NY and south-central New
England. There is no clean synoptic forcing with the front...so we
expect the isolated showers to die off with the daytime
heating...and variable cloudy conditions to persist tonight. The
winds will become light and variable which will allow temps to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s in many of the valley
spots...and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tomorrow...Most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it
will take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.
Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.
Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpts into
the lower to mids 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.
Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to continue with the potential for some
mist/fog mainly at KGFL. There will be an increase in clouds late
tonight and through Thursday along with the chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon. For now, we will place VCSH.
Winds will diminish from the westerly direction around 10kts to
light and variable tonight. Then a gradual shift to the south-
southeast less than 10kts Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.
The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.
A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.
As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south and east through tonight
followed by a weak cold front crossing the area on Thursday. This
front then lifts north as a warm front Thursday night, with high
pressure building in behind the front through Saturday night. A
series of frontal boundaries then impact the area from Sunday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With high pressure translating off the southeast coast, a sw flow
is setting up across the region. The pressure gradient is weak
enough and enough land sea temperature differential has led to sea
breeze circulations keeping coastal locations relatively cooler
than places farther inland. Temperatures are well into the 80s
across the region and will reach near 90 for some locations. Sky
conditions are sunny without much of any clouds with ridging and
thereby subsidence aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints were
slightly adjusted to better match observed trends with otherwise
no other remarkable changes made to the forecast database.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Deep layered ridging remains in control tonight and Thursday. It
will be dry tonight, with only some high clouds around. However, a
700-500 hPa shortwaves passes over the top of the ridge, and
through the area Thursday afternoon. This, coupled with surface
based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, Showalter Indices from -2 to 2, and
20-25kt of Bulk shear over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, warrants
slight chance to chance pops in that region.
It should be noted that the ECMWF suggests that there should be
sufficient subsidence under the ridge to keep things dry
throughout the area on Thursday. The GFS however suggests fairly
extensive convection over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, with the
NAM somewhat in between (though closer to the ECMWF than the
GFS). Noting, that in addition to the passing shortwave, will also
have a cold front sinking south into the region. Based on this, it
appears there is enough forcing to warrant pops at this time.
However, there is still the potential for no precipitation at all
on Thursday.
For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values around 10-15 degrees above
normal. A blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance, NAM 2-meter temperatures
and a mix down from 850-750 hPa, per BUFKIT soundings, was used
for highs on Thursday. Highs should be around 15 degrees above
normal, but probably a degree or so lower than today. If the more
extensive convection suggested by the GFS plays out, highs,
especially over western areas, might need to be lowered by at
least 5 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary lifts north of the area as a warm front Thursday
night. A southerly flow and ridging aloft will allow for the
above normal temperatures to continue Friday and Saturday. It will
also mean a noticeable increase in humidity as inland areas will
see dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s by Friday afternoon,
mainly away from the coast. The relatively cool ocean waters will
keep temperatures and dewpoints down along coastal areas. However,
temperatures across central Nassau and Suffolk may reach the upper
70s to near 80 on both Friday and Saturday.
The warm front then approaches our area again late Saturday night
into Sunday morning as a back door cold front. High pressure behind
this cold front over southeastern Canada slips off the New England
coast and into the western Atlantic during this time period. This
high is weaker than in previous model runs, and thus will not push
as far into our area as previously forecast. This will help to keep
the frontal boundary in the vicinity through Monday morning.
Sunday`s temperature may be a difficult one depending on which side
of the front we will be on.
We will be warm sectored on Monday. However, clouds and will keep
temperatures down.
A cold front then approaches for Tuesday.
Something to watch is the disturbance well off the Southeast coast.
Models show this disturbance moving inland over the Southeast coast
and having little, if any, impact for our area through the forecast
period. However, moisture from this system could make its way into
our area on Tuesday, but right now it looks like a low chance of
that happening. It is still a few days out with a good deal of
uncertainty in the forecast.
As far as rainfall, nothing looks organized for the long term.
There is a fair amount of moisture available given the humid airmass
and surface based CAPE values are high for the afternoons from
Friday through Monday, but lift does not look overly impressive.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible for areas north and
west of NYC Friday and Saturday. Then there is at least a slight
chance for the entire area on Sunday with the approach of the back
door cold front, which will remain in the vicinity through Monday.
Continued unsettled for Tuesday with the approach of the cold front
from the west. None of these days are expected to be a washout, just
passing showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today.
VFR forecast.
West winds 8-12 kt will back to the SW through this afternoon.
Gusts 17-19 kt through this afternoon.
SW winds 5-10 kt this evening at KNYC terminals and LGT/VRB
elsewhere. Afternoon sea breezes expected on Thursday.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 18-22 kt this afternoon. Sea
breeze also could back winds to the South through this evening.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might back
closer to 250-230 magnetic this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KISP TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might
back closer to 230-210 magnetic this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Thursday through Monday...
.Thursday afternoon...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazards are expected today with sub SCA conditions as high
pressure builds south of the waters.
Outside of afternoon seabreezes bring gusts to around 20 kt to the
New York Bight Region this afternoon and Thursday, a light to
moderate pressure gradient over the area will keep winds to 15 kt
or less through Sunday. With no significant swell forecast, these
relatively light winds will keep seas below Small Craft Advisory
criteria as well throughout the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through Thursday morning. Scattered to Isolated Showers and
Thunderstorms, mainly from NYC on N/W Thursday afternoon/evening
could bring less than 1/2 inch of rain to that area.
There are no significant hydrologic impacts expected from Thursday
Night into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/Maloit/JP
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move southward from the Saint Lawrence Valley
this afternoon. This boundary will eventually stall across the
region tonight then move back north as a warm front late in the
week. A large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather as we
head into the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 159 PM EDT...High pressure is ridging in from the
south...as a cold front has become stationary near the St Lawrence
River Valley. Temps are exceeding current forecasted values...so
have increased 2 to 3 degrees with mid and upper 80s possible in
the Hudson River Valley. A few showers are possible for the
western Adirondacks with a weak disturbance ahead of the front.
Slight chc pops were kept in there. Better Chances for any
convection should be limited to northern New York and the
Adirondacks in the vicinity of the boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any convection will dissipate quickly after sunset. We will be
left with a clear to partly cloudy night with a summery feel, as
low temperatures only dip to around 50 in the coolest spots, 55-60
in most areas, warmest right in the Capital region. The wind will
become light and once again there could be a few patches of fog
around daybreak.
We continue to see some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage
of clouds and how extensive any shower or thunderstorm activity
will be on Thursday and Friday. It looks as if a weak boundary
and another disturbance could trigger some convection later
Thursday as dewpoints increase into the 60s, although SBCAPES do
not look that high (500-1000 J/KG). Most of the day will be dry
and there will a good of deal sunshine as well. Very warm
temperatures will likely be a point or two higher than Wednesday.
Scattered convection could linger into Thursday night as the
aforementioned boundary slowly lifts northward as warm front
through our region.
By Friday, 500 MB heights continue to rise as an impressive ridge
builds just to our south, reaching close to 590 hectopascals , not
too shabby for May. Rising heights tend to induce subsidence and
capping.
Still most models do indicate a scattered of showers and
thunderstorms for mainly Friday afternoon so will continue with
low chances of thunderstorms. It will be another very warm to hot
day with highs 85-90 in the valleys, 80-85 higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through
Monday with a chance of showers on Tuesday. The activity will be
most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. The forecast
area will be impacted by ridge rollers as moisture rides along the
top of the ridge which will be anchored to our south. Sunday and
Monday are the days during which the thunderstorm activity looks
most widespread as a back door cold front drops southwest on Sunday
and returns north as a warm front on Monday.
Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 70s with mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with
lows Sunday night and Monday night in the mid 50s to around 60.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, heights will continue to rise as ridging builds in through
the overnight into Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is
approaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley. This boundary will
move gradually southeastward across the region through Thursday.
Chances for any convection through the TAF period 18z/Thu should
be limited to the northern New York in the vicinity of the boundary
this afternoon, north of KGFL.
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, 18Z/Thu. The exception
will be the possibility will be for MVFR due to fog at KGFL late
tonight.
Westerly winds with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon will diminish
this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday night through Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...and mainly PM TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across the
Adirondacks, it should be a dry warm day today. RH values will
drop into the 30s in most valley locations this afternoon, but
stay in the 40s across most of the higher terrain. A west wind
will average 10 mph later in the morning through early evening.
There will be some gusts to 20 mph across the higher elevations,
Mohawk valley and Greater Capital District.
A Bermuda high will take control of our weather for the next
several upcoming day. This feature will bring very warm
increasingly humid days and nights will full recovery. There will
be chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Saturday.
Today looks mainly dry outside a few possible showers and
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. As a Bermuda high forms, we
can expect warm and increasingly humid weather Thursday through
the weekend.
While most of that time will be rainfree, there is an increasing
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. These look
scattered but as PWATS increase well over an inch, isolated heavy
rainfall will possible by Friday afternoon.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring very warm weather to most of the
region through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times
along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to the region sometime on Sunday, but temperatures should
rebound to at or above normal by early next week. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and
again this weekend but the vast majority of this time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Summer temperatures push in today across the region***
1030 AM Update...Most of the fog has cleared out across the area
with the exception of one band of fog that is hugging the south
coast of RI and moving eastward towards Buzzards Bay and the Cape.
If it continues on this trajectory without burning off, portions
of Cape Cod along the Cape Cod Canal as well as Martha`s Vineyard
and the Elizabeth Islands will see a period of fog later this
morning into early afternoon. Visibilities have been generally
about a mile with this bank of fog on land, it may be more dense
over the water. Made minor adjustments to the temperatures to ease
them back as they have not jumped up as quickly as forecast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will cross the region by
midday through the afternoon with NW winds aloft. Warm core H925
temps will push across the region, up to +19C to +22C by this
afternoon. Once skies become mostly sunny, temps will rise quickly
with excellent low and mid level mixing in place. Expect temps to
top off in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots touching 90.
However, dewpoints falling into the 40s will result in low
humidity levels.
High clouds will start to push in from the NW during the mid and
late afternoon ahead of H5 short wave across far northern New
England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
Most of the energy from a weak H5 shortwave trough will remain
across northern New England. NW flow keeps dry conditions across
the region tonight. The mid and upper level clouds will dissipate
overnight as SW winds shift back to W-NW and diminish. It will
remain mild, with temperatures only bottoming out from the mid 50s
well inland to lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain.
Thursday...
A cold front will slowly push S across the region during the day.
Clouds will push in from the W as the front moves in during the
afternoon. Short range models vary in their solutions, with mainly
dry conditions through the day offered by the ECMWF, but the GFS
tends to bring some moisture with a weak H5 shortwave in the W-NW
flow aloft. Have mentioned only slight chance PoPs moving into W
MA/N Central CT during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Have noted marginal instability with this system, plus another
day of warm temperatures, so have mentioned widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.
It will be another warm day, with somewhat higher dewpoints making
it feel a bit more humid. Highs will again be in the mid-upper 80s
away from the immediate coast, with a few spots possibly hitting
90 again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Friday: Very warm w/highs mid-upper 80s northwest of BOS-PVD but
a bit cooler across southeast MA/RI
* Saturday: Hot and a bit humid w/highs mainly upper 80s to lower
90s away from the immediate south coast
* Sunday: Temps uncertain depending on timing of cold front, warmest
readings likely CT River Valley w/coolest across Eastern MA coast
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri and again Sat/Sun
but the vast majority of this time will be dry
* At or above normal temperatures likely return early next week
Details...
Thursday night...Shortwave energy and a burst of elevated
instability may result in a few showers/t-storms Thursday night,
mainly northwest of a Boston to Providence line. If any activity is
able to develop, it will be short-lived with the majority of the
night ending up dry. Low temps mainly in the upper 50s to the lower
60s. May see some patchy ground fog develop late in the typically
prone locations.
Friday...Surface winds shift to the south-southwest behind the
warm front as 850T rise to around +14C. Plenty of sunshine should
allow highs to warm into the middle to upper 80s northwest of a
Boston to Providence line. Southeast of this line...a cooling
marine layer may hold highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry weather will dominate on Friday, but enough instability
combined with a pre-frontal trough may allow a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across W MA/N CT Fri afternoon
and evening. Not sure if this activity gets into our region or
stays to our west, but highest risk will be across northwest MA.
Shear is rather weak so even if we see a few thunderstorms in our
western zones, overall severe weather threat is rather low.
Saturday...A hot and somewhat humid day is on tap to kick off the
Memorial Day Weekend. 850T around +16C, plenty of sunshine, and a
westerly component to the surface winds should allow for high temps
to reach into the upper 80s to the lower 90s away from the immediate
south coast. Dewpoints between 60 and 65 across most of the region
will make it feel a bit humid.
While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening with a
pre-frontal trough and CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG.
This will be mainly to the northwest of a Boston to Providence
line. Forcing will be rather weak, so areal coverage of any
activity that develops may remain limited. Severe weather threat
also looks rather low at this time with rather weak 0 to 6 km
shear, but too early to rule out a strong thunderstorm or two
given decent instability.
Sunday...Low confidence on high temperatures given a subtle change
in timing of the backdoor cold front will make a big difference in
the exact outcome. We can say that the warmest readings will be
across the lower CT River Valley and coolest along the eastern MA
coast. Good shot though at the CT River Valley seeing high temps
reaching well into the 80s, while the eastern MA coast has
afternoon temps falling into the 60s. A few showers will remain
possible and perhaps even a couple of t-storms across the interior
if enough instability develops during the afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday...Backdoor cold front does not appear as strong
on the latest model runs. It looks to washout across the region
early next week. GFS washes out on Monday while the ECMWF waits
until Tuesday. Probably should see the return to above normal temps
by Tue with rather warm temps aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. VFR conditions expected the rest of the
day, except on the Cape and Islands where fog may reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds 10 kt or
less.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. An ESE sea breeze has
developed and is expected to continue into early afternoon.
Southwesterly winds should overcome this by late afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR
conditions likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible
in a few brief showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also,
some patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations
very early Fri AM.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions likely
dominate but a brief period of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys possible in a
few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions may develop from east
to west behind a backdoor cold front. A few thunderstorms also
possible Sun afternoon across the interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. W winds up to 10 kt will back to SW
10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt on the southern
outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less. Patchy fog mainly along the south
coast will result in reduced visibilities at times.
Tonight...High confidence. Light southwesterly winds become
westerly, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer waters this
evening. Seas 4 ft or less.
Thursday...High confidence. Light W winds shifting to S in the
afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Expect temperatures will rise quickly, soaring well into
the 80s to near 90 across most locations except cooler along the
immediate south coast. These temperatures will combine with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s resulting in afternoon RH values down
to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly wind gusts up
to 20 to perhaps briefly 25 mph are anticipated. Given Tuesday`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will fall short of needing fire
weather headlines. Many locations are close to or already at full
green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM Update...
H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.
Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.
Previous discussion...
With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***
Today ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.
Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.
Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.
IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. otherwise VFR.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence.
Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.
Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.
Tonight...High confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
this morning for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.
However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.
At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.
We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.
As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.
KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.
Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will be under the influence of a westward extension of
the Bermuda High through the weekend. A cold front approaches from
the west Monday, then pushes through the area Monday night. This
front then stalls out near or just to the south of the area
through Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Under full sun early this morning, and light winds, temperatures
have risen a little more quickly than expected. Have updated sky
cover and temperatures.
With deep-layered ridging area will remain mostly clear. One weak
shortwave moving through northeastern Pennsylvania and into the
lower Hudson Valley was producing some cloudiness to the west and
will bring increased clouds, mainly to the north, through the
morning and into the afternoon. Another shortwave embedded within
ridge approaches late in the day, and with increasing mid- level
moisture there could be a shower or thunderstorm by late,
primarily over the NW zones where CAPES will be higher. Limiting
factors however will be some capping aloft with relatively stable
mid-level lapse rates.
Thinking is that most spots will be a little cooler than
yesterday, more so at the coastal areas as sea breezes will begin
earlier this time around and affect more areas. Additionally, 850
mb temps are forecast to be about a degree Celsius cooler.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic beaches today into this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
500 mb shortwave enters tonight, but weakens as it moves across the
region. Loss of instability will help keep any showers/storms
isolated to scattered in nature.
850-700 mb shortwave slowly moves through the CWA during Friday.
Moisture depth and lift will be greater during the morning, but
CAPES will be higher in the afternoon. Will therefore go no higher
than chance pops for now. High temps still well above normal with
850 mb temps climbing back up to 15-16C. Amount of cloud cover and
sea breezes should offset the max temp potential somewhat, but in
general, going with highs a little cooler than today in most
spots, primarily due to more cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A westward extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ocean based sub-tropical
ridge builds in Friday night-Saturday, then retreats back to the
southeast Saturday night and Sunday. The result will be continued
very warm and humid conditions across the region. There will also
be some mainly diurnal isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms from Friday evening through Sunday as well.
Temperatures during this time frame were based on a blend of all
available guidance, with NAM 2-meter temperatures blended in Friday
night-Saturday night, and a mix down from 975-850 hPa, per BUFKIT
soundings, blended in for highs on Saturday. Lows will run around 10
degrees above normal both Friday and Saturday night. Highs Saturday
and Sunday should run around 10-15 degrees above normal.
The forecast for Sunday night-Wednesday is very much dependent on
the interaction between a northern stream shortwave that is forecast
to move across the Great Lakes and a possible closed low near the
mid-Atlantic Coast. There is quite a spread in model solutions, with
the GFS showing the most interaction between these two systems and
the ECMWF the least. The CMC-Global is somewhat in between these two
solutions, but trends closer to the ECMWF with time. It should be
noted that the ECMWF and GFS basically flipped solutions from the
12z to the 00z runs. The result is a low confidence forecast from
Sunday night-Wednesday.
For now will run with pops increasing to chance throughout Sunday
night for showers and thunderstorms, continuing on Monday, then
tapering off Monday night. Given uncertainties in how quickly the
airmass changes on Tuesday, have included some diurnal convection
then, however, if the ECMWF/CMC are correct, Tuesday could end up
dry. Given the overall uncertainty then maintain mainly slight
chance pops for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
For temperatures Sunday night-Wednesday, the Superblend was used,
with above normal temperatures forecast, but not quite as warm
as this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR forecast.
High pressure builds east of the area today.
Light and variable winds this morning will quickly be replaced by
by a a S/SW flow with local seabreeze enhancements. KLGA will see
its typical NE flow off the East River this morning before
switching around to the S by late morning/early aft. Wind speeds
should max to just above 10 kt.
A shower or thunderstorm is possible across the terminals late
tonight into Friday morning. However, chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms
for northwest terminals such as KSWF and KHPN.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KLGA TAF Comments: Sound breeze off East River may persist 1-2
hours longer.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Friday through Monday...
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
No changes at this time.
A weak to moderate pressure gradient over the region through
Monday will keep winds to 15 kt or less over the waters around
Long Island. With no significant swells forecast during this time
frame, seas will remain below Small Craft levels as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through Thursday
night. Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are
possible on Friday.
There is the potential for locally heavy rainfall, for areas mainly
N/W of NYC Saturday and Sunday, with a higher chance of a more
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall from Sunday night into Monday,
and possibly lingering farther into next week. For this weekend, the
main threat is ponding of water on roadways, with a low risk of
minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas (once again the main
threat this weekend will be to the N/W of NYC). At this time, there
is too much uncertainty to specify any threat for early next week,
other than to note the situation bears watching.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 530 AM a few patchy clouds associated with a very weak
frontal passage, were moving through the forecast area.
Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.
It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.
By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.
It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.
By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.
Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.
Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.
Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.
Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.
Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period ending at
12Z Friday.
There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through
tonight.
A weak boundary working southward will begin lifting northward
later on today. By that time, it will have more moisture and
possible short wave to work with, so shower threats will increase
with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into the evening.
For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and kept flying
conditions at VFR through tonight.
A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours...before
becoming light and variable this evening.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.
The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.
Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.
Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.
The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.
Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.
PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.
Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
454 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm to hot weather will continue through Saturday, but it
will be a bit cooler at times on the immediate coast. A backdoor
cold front will bring cooler weather to eastern MA Sunday with
warm weather continuing elsewhere. Dry weather dominates through
Sunday other than isolated showers/thunderstorms at times. Near or
above normal temperatures continue for much of next week and there
is the potential for a period of more widespread showers Monday
and/or Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy high clouds continue to stream across the region early
this morning as seen on latest IR satellite imagery. Also noting
some patchy fog across N central MA in the normally susceptible
valleys, as temps have fallen to the lower-mid 50s close to dewpt
values at 08z.
As high pressure ridge builds S of the region, expect a general
light pressure gradient. This will allow sea breezes to develop
along the coast by late morning through the mid to late afternoon.
H5 ridging also builds E today, with H5 heights increasing to 580
to 582 dm by this afternoon. With W-SW winds aloft, H85 temps will
increase to +14C to +16C this afternoon, and up to +22C across
western areas at H925! Very warm airmass indeed.
Expect temps to rise to 85-90 away from the coast, but held down
to the 70s to around 80 along the immediate coast with the sea
breezes. Temps may rise quickly late this afternoon as the sea
breeze kicks out, so readings may rise there as well /from about
Marshfield and Boston northward with W winds/.
With the slow moving or stalling weak front across the region, there
may be just enough lift along with the diurnal heating and marginal
instability to cause some airmass showers/thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon across central and western interior areas. Not
expecting widespread activity, but can not rule out spotty
convection. Have slight chance POPs going there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tonight...The weak stalled front should also lift N-NE as winds
become more S-SW and the ridge pushes offshore. Noting a weak mid
level short wave in the SW flow at the surface and aloft. Some
timing issues on the short range models in moving this E out of
the Appalachians and mid Atlc states. Have kept similar timing
going from the previous forecast and kept mention of slight chance
to low chance POPs, with only an isolated mention of thunder,
though think this will be very spotty.
With ocean temps mainly in the lower-mid 50s and the onshore
winds, expect overnight lows to fall back to 55-60 across eastern
and central areas, ranging to the lower-mid 60s across the CT
valley.
Friday...Expect another warm day with continued S-SW winds on
back side of high pres ridge over the western Atlc. With the high
in place to the E, weak trough will remain across western areas.
Also noting rather good instability with CAPEs rising to 1200-1400
J/kg as well as K indices in the low-mid 30s and surface based LIs
on around -1 to -2. So have kept chance POPs going from the
interior Merrimack valley across central MA to the CT valley, with
the best shot from late Friday morning through the afternoon.
Temps will be in the 80s away from the immediate coast, holding in
the 70s along S coastal areas with the onshore winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Hot Sat w/highs mainly 90-95 away from the immediate coast.
* Near or above normal temperatures through much of next week
* Mainly dry Sat/Sun other than iso showers/t-storms but activity
could be a bit more organized Sun afternoon across interior
* Its possible a more widespread area of showers affects the region
Mon and/or Tue but that remains highly uncertain
Details...
Friday night...While it remains uncertain if any isolated convection
will affect the region late Friday it should diminish during the
evening hours. Otherwise, dry weather with upper level ridging in
control. Low temps will only drop to between 60 and 65 in most
locations. Some patchy ground fog will likely develop in the
typically prone locations given increasing low level moisture.
Saturday...Unseasonably hot weather anticipated across most of our
region. 850T around +16c with plenty of sunshine and a well mixed
atmosphere should yield highs between 90 and 95 in most locations
away from the immediate coast where localized sea breezes may
develop. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make it feel a
bit muggy.
The majority of Saturday will be dry, but there is the risk for some
isolated to widely scattered convection Saturday afternoon and
evening. As usual, mesoscale processes will dictate what happens
and its not clear cut. A weak pre-frontal trough will combined with
modest instability with Capes increasing to between 1000 and 2000
J/KG. Upper level ridging and lack of forcing will certainly be
limiting factors. Sea breeze convergence and terrain impacts might
be enough to trigger isolated to widely scattered convection Sat
afternoon and evening. 0 to 6 KM shear is weak, so if anything
develops the overall severe weather threat would be low.
However, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out
with decent instability and potentially large temp/dewpoint spreads.
Very localized heavy rainfall would also also be possible given any
storm that is able to develop will be slow moving.
In a nutshell, much of the region will likely remain dry Saturday
but isolated slow moving showers/t-storms with very localized heavy
rainfall can not be ruled out.
Sunday...
The backdoor cold front pushes across the region from east to west.
Timing of the front remains uncertain and a 6 hour shift in either
direction will make a huge difference in high temperatures. Overall,
thinking interior gets very warm while cooler air works into Eastern
MA. A few showers may accompany the cold front, but will have to
watch for a bit more organized area of scattered
showers/thunderstorms with very localized heavy rainfall across
Western MA/Northern CT Sunday afternoon. This will depend upon how
much instability develops ahead of the backdoor front and its exact
timing.
Monday and Tuesday...
A disturbance currently northeast of the Bahamas will track
northwest and probably not directly impact our region. However, a
plume of its tropical moisture may get pulled north into southern
New England ahead of a cold front. Low confidence on how this all
plays out, but there is at least a risk for a more
organized/widespread area of rain showers. Temps will remain near
or above normal and exact temps be determined by timing of potential
clouds/showers.
Wednesday...
Low confidence this far out but do not see any organized
precipitation threats. Temps near or above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term...
Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog with local MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS across interior valleys. Light W-SW or calm winds
shift to W-NW across N MA.
Today...High confidence. VFR. Expect sea breezes to develop by
mid to late morning on both coasts, lasting through mid to late
afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for much of
the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly across W MA/N central CT, but briefly may reach into NE
CT/central MA this evening. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR conditions
after 07Z-08Z across interior valleys.
Friday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR
conditions with low risk of a few brief scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly
across the interior. Also, patchy ground fog possible in the
typically prone locations through mid morning.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday night and Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR
other than a few hours of patchy ground fog toward daybreak Sat in
the typically prone locations. Isolated showers/t-storms may also
result in brief/localized lower conditions.
Sunday...Low to moderate confidence. May see some MVFR CIGS work
into northern and eastern MA behind the backdoor cold front.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of any widely scattered convection.
Monday...Low confidence. Potential for a period of MVFR-IFR
conditions in low clouds and some showers but that remains highly
uncertain.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.
Today and tonight...Expect S-SE winds less than 15 kt and seas 4
ft or less. May see some visibility restrictions in patchy fog
late tonight along the coast.
Friday...S-SW winds 15 kt or less. Some gusts may approach 20 kt
on the near shore waters during the afternoon. Seas remain 4 ft or
less. May see local visibility restrictions in patchy early
morning fog.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through the period. Biggest concern is Saturday
afternoon along the south coast...where some near shore lower 20
knot wind gusts may occur resulting in choppy seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
415 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 415 AM a tranquil summer like night continued as a few patchy
clouds, associated with a very weak frontal passage, were moving
through. However, no shower activity was being picked up by any of
the radars.
Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.
For the rest of the overnight, tranquil conditions will continue.
Temperatures will drop another degree or two, meaning temperatures
well end up above normal for late May. Patches of fog will form near
some bodies of water, and cooler mountain valleys, but that will be
the exception not the rule.
It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.
By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.
It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.
By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.
Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.
Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.
Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.
Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.
Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.
There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.
A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. By that time, it will have
more moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower
threats will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this
afternoon into the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs
after 22Z and kept flying conditions at VFR.
A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.
The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.
Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.
Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.
The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.
Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.
PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.
Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
238 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring very warm
weather to most of the region through Saturday, along with
increasing humidity. It will be cooler at times along the
immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler weather
to Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts Sunday with warm weather
continuing elsewhere. Warmer than normal temperatures overspread
the remainder of the area by early next week. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and again
this weekend but the vast majority of the time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
210 AM Update...
Leading edge of high clouds moving into portions of the CT valley
at 06Z as seen on latest IR satellite imagery, well ahead of
approaching H5 short wave in the general W flow aloft. A weak, dry
cold front pretty much stalled across S VT/NH into S coastal ME.
Little if any moisture with this system, so will remain dry
through sunrise.
Temps remain warm across the region early this morning, mainly in
the mid-upper 50s across N central and W MA, ranging to around 70
in the urban centers at 06Z. May see some patchy fog develop
through around 12Z as temps fall close to the dewpts across the
normally susceptible inland valley locations, especially the mid
CT valley in MA.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Today...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level
ridge centers itself over southern New England. With a much weaker
gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam
dunk. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but
still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under
mostly sunny skies.
Tonight...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall
conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will
go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the
upper 50s to lower 60s for most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 pm update...
Highlights...
* Temperatures warmer than normal much of the time
* Other than isolated showers/thunderstorms many hours of dry
weather this period
Subtropical ridge builds northwestward from western Atlantic into
the northeast late this week into the weekend and lingers into at
least early next week. This will result in temperatures warmer
than normal much of the time along with mainly dry weather. Both
the 00z GEFS and 00z EPS offer 850 temp anomalies of +1 to +2
standard deviations above normal over southern New England during
this time. However there will be a brief cool down Sunday across
eastern MA and RI as a shallow cool airmass invades this area
behind a backdoor cold front. Otherwise much of this forecast
period will be warmer than normal (normal highs around 70, normal
lows around 50).
As for rain chances...a prefrontal trough will enter western
portions of MA and CT Friday. However rising heights and
increasing anticyclonic mid level flow will likely suppress most
convective development. Likewise on Sat with the ridge continuing
to build and heights reaching +2 standard deviations above normal
over the northeast. By late Sat and into Sunday the backdoor front
provides surface convergence and shallow low level forcing first
north of MA Sat and then across much of the region Sunday. However
large amplitude ridge over the region along with mid level
anticyclonic flow may suppress much of the convection once again.
Thus model guidance is likely too wet especially the 12z GFS.
Therefore have undercut guidance from chance to slight chance pops
Fri/Sat and Sun. Greatest risk (albeit low) of seeing any
showers/thunderstorms Fri/Sat & Sunday will likely be across
western portions of MA and CT. Thus a washout is not expected
just isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms well
inland.
Mon and Tue of next week become interesting as area of convection
currently northeast of the bahamas advects northwestward around
the subtropical ridge into the mid Atlantic region. Then it
becomes a question if the upstream northern stream trough has
sufficient amplitude to capture this area tropical moisture and
advect it into southern New England. 00z GEFS and 00z EPS both
suggest bulk of tropical moisture remains offshore or just clips
south coast of New England and bulk of convection from northern
stream trough remains northwest across NY state and VT. Given the
time range and uncertainty chance pops seems reasonable here.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog with local MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS across interior valleys through 12Z. Light W-SW or
calm winds shift to W-NW across N MA.
Today...High confidence. VFR. Expect sea breezes to develop by mid
to late morning on both coasts, lasting through mid to late
afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for much of
the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly across W MA/N central CT, but briefly may reach into NE
CT/central MA this evening. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR conditions
after 07Z-08Z across interior valleys.
Friday...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR
conditions with low risk of a few brief scattered SHRA/TSRA
mainly across the interior. Also, patchy ground fog possible in
the typically prone locations through mid morning.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday night...Moderate to high confidence. Leftover MVFR
conditions in isolated SHRA/TSRA in the evening, then mainly VFR.
May see late night patchy fog with local MVFR-IFR conditions.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Any early MVFR conditions
should quickly lift to VFR by midday. Low risk of a few afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms well inland.
Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR likely with low risk of IFR in
spots. A few thunderstorms also possible Sun afternoon across the
interior.
Monday...Low confidence given time range and weather pattern. VFR
likely but period of MVFR in low risk of scattered showers/
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria
through Thursday night.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Then winds become ssw Sunday
into Tue as front lifts north as a warm front.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT...all was quiet on all fronts in spite of a weak
cold front draped over our northern section, slipping southward.
This is a very weak shallow feature, and with very little moisture
or forcing we do not expect any convection to happen tonight.
We will enjoy a mild summery night with lows dipping to around 60
Albany southward in the Hudson valley, 50s most other places with a
few upper 40s across the Adirondacks. The wind will be light or
calm.
Some patches of fog will form, but not as much as last night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Later today...most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it will
take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.
Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.
Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpoints into
the lower to mid 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.
Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.
There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.
A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. Now it will have more
moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower threats
will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into
the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and
kept flying conditions at VFR.
A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.
The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.
A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.
As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens and moves farther offshore through Thursday.
Meanwhile a weak cold front moves in Thursday. This front will back
north as a warm front Thursday Night. A Bermuda high will
then dominate through the weekend, bringing summertime warmth as
a series of weak upper level disturbances touch off convection
each afternoon and early evening. A back door cold front will
approach Sunday into Sunday night, then retreat back north early
next week as a weak front slowly approaches from the west and a
broad area of low pressure slowly approaches from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track. Minor adjustments made to t/td and sky
based on latest obs and trends.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies to start however...high clouds
will begin to spill over the upper ridge axis overnight. Used a
blend of mav/met for lows with manual adjustments up near some
coastal rural locations due to partial onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
For Thursday, some slight ridging takes place aloft with overall the
ridge still exhibiting a rather flat structure. The models are
pointing to a relatively stronger shortwave that will be riding
along the top of the ridge, arriving into western portions of the
region by Thursday Evening. At the surface, high pressure will shift
farther offshore and weaken. A cold front moves across during the
day and weakens as it does so. This will bring some extra clouds
during the day. With the weak pressure gradient, sea breezes set up
sooner with a more southerly component. This will keep coastal
location temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to the previous
day while interior locations will be nearly the same temperatures as
the previous day.
Weather will start out dry with enough subsidence of residual ridging
and then with the approach of the shortwave as well as increasing
instability, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in
the day and evening. The subsidence will still be enough to prevent
much in the way of any convection from developing. With the approach
of the shortwave, places north and west of NYC will have a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day since those
locations will be relatively closer to the shortwave.
For Thursday Night, the shortwave moves across while at the surface,
the weak cold front will move back north as a warm front. The
presence of the frontal boundary and the increased positive
vorticity advection aloft will allow for a relatively greater chance
of showers. Convection with the lack of CAPE will be minimal with
any coverage being isolated.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Earlier forecast reasoning still holds, with summertime warmth
through the weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. A warm
front will clear the entire area Fri morning, and with H8 temps near
16C and H5-10 thicknesses near 570 dm, high temps are likely to
reach the lower 90s both Fri/Sat NW of NYC, with 80s elsewhere
except for the south shore of eastern Long Island. There is a good
chance for late day tstms from NYC north/west as a mid level
disturbance interacts with a lee trough. Wind fields are not
particularly strong aloft, but deep layer shear might still support
a few strong to locally severe storms. Any late convection on
Saturday will be isolated in nature and tied more to differential
heating in/near the higher terrain.
The northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada has
trended faster, which means any associated back door cold front may
not make it into the area at all, or only into eastern CT/Long
Island. So Sunday will still be a warm day, though not quite as warm
as the previous two days. Once again looking mainly at scattered
late day convection tied either to the front or to a lee trough NW
of NYC, and as another weak mid level vort max approaches from the
west.
Monday should be cooler, with more cloud cover as shortwave energy
Atlantic moisture ride up the coast, well in advance of a low off
the Southeast coast, and on the back side of the retreating offshore
ridging. Once this passes, we should return to warm weather and
chances for sct mainly inland late day convection as another upper
ridge moves in from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR forecast.
High pressure builds to the south overnight and
Thursday.
Light west/southwest expected overnight.
Light winds in the morning become south around 10 kt. Sea breezes
are expected by afternoon, sooner across CT terminals.
KLGA may be affected by a sound breeze which may make winds turn
to an east or southeast direction between 12Z and 15Z. However,
there is a low chance of this happening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Friday through Monday...
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
With the pressure gradient overall remaining rather weak...the seas
and wind gusts will stay below SCA criteria through Thursday
Night.
S-SW flow increasing to near 20 kt may bring a brief period of 5-ft
seas to the western ocean waters late day Fri into Fri evening.
Otherwise, expect quiet winds/waves outside of any potential
thunderstorms.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through Thursday
Night.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
with any late day convection, on Friday and Sunday, mainly NW of
NYC. Heavy rain may also be possible on Monday with an upper level
disturbance and Atlantic moisture riding up the coast, but timing
and location are uncertain, and at this time looks likely to pass
just offshore Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...Goodman/JM
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1059 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring very warm
weather to most of the region through Saturday, along with
increasing humidity this weekend. It will be cooler at times along
the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts Sunday with warm
weather continuing elsewhere. Warmer than normal temperatures
overspread the remainder of the area by early next week. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday,
and again this weekend but the vast majority of the time will be
dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...
Band of showers that moved out of the Berkshires late this
afternoon associated with weak short wave moving across the region
had weakened by sunset as they crossed central MA and N central
CT. Some leftover mid and high clouds are also tending to
dissipate as they cross N CT/RI. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and
mild temps at 02Z across the region.
Weak surface high pressure ridge and associated mid level ridging
cross overnight. However, noting some high thin clouds working E
across western NY state on latest IR satellite. Some may filter
into western areas toward sunrise out ahead of next system in the
fast W-NW flow aloft. Also noting weak, dry cold front working
slowly S across S VT/NH with weak surface low off the Maine coast.
Little if any moisture with this system, so not expecting precip
overnight across northern Mass.
General light W-SW wind flow in place across the region along with
patchy clouds. Not expecting temps to fall too much overnight with
the milder wind in place.
Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current. Temps
were a few degrees milder that previous forecast through 00Z so
adjusted those, but looked like the overnight temps were in good
shape so kept those.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...High pressure moves offshore slowly while the mid level
ridge centers itself over southern New England. With a much weaker
gradient over the region, sea breezes along both coasts are a slam
dunk. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler at the coasts but
still in the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the area under mostly
sunny skies.
Thursday night...Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall
conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will
go calm overnight allowing temperatures to drop back into the upper
50s to lower 60s for most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 pm update...
Highlights...
* Temperatures warmer than normal much of the time
* Other than isolated showers/thunderstorms many hours of dry
weather this period
Subtropical ridge builds northwestward from western Atlantic into
the northeast late this week into the weekend and lingers into at
least early next week. This will result in temperatures warmer
than normal much of the time along with mainly dry weather. Both
the 00z GEFS and 00z EPS offer 850 temp anomalies of +1 to +2
standard deviations above normal over southern New England during
this time. However there will be a brief cool down Sunday across
eastern MA and RI as a shallow cool airmass invades this area
behind a backdoor cold front. Otherwise much of this forecast
period will be warmer than normal (normal highs around 70, normal
lows around 50).
As for rain chances...a prefrontal trough will enter western
portions of MA and CT Friday. However rising heights and
increasing anticyclonic mid level flow will likely suppress most
convective development. Likewise on Sat with the ridge continuing
to build and heights reaching +2 standard deviations above normal
over the northeast. By late Sat and into Sunday the backdoor front
provides surface convergence and shallow low level forcing first
north of MA Sat and then across much of the region Sunday. However
large amplitude ridge over the region along with mid level
anticyclonic flow may suppress much of the convection once again.
Thus model guidance is likely too wet especially the 12z GFS.
Therefore have undercut guidance from chance to slight chance pops
Fri/Sat and Sun. Greatest risk (albeit low) of seeing any
showers/thunderstorms Fri/Sat & Sunday will likely be across
western portions of MA and CT. Thus a washout is not expected
just isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms well
inland.
Mon and Tue of next week become interesting as area of convection
currently northeast of the bahamas advects northwestward around
the subtropical ridge into the mid Atlantic region. Then it
becomes a question if the upstream northern stream trough has
sufficient amplitude to capture this area tropical moisture and
advect it into southern New England. 00z GEFS and 00z EPS both
suggest bulk of tropical moisture remains offshore or just clips
south coast of New England and bulk of convection from northern
stream trough remains northwest across NY state and VT. Given the
time range and uncertainty chance pops seems reasonable here.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
1030 PM Update...
Overnight...High confidence. VFR. Light W-SW winds shift to W-NW
across N MA after 06Z-08Z.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Sea breezes will develop early on
both coasts.
Thursday night...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions likely for
much of the period. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SCT
-SHRA/TSRA across W MA/N CT.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday...MVFR conditions likely with low risk of a few brief
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also, some patchy
ground fog possible in the typically prone locations very early
Fri AM. Moderate to high forecast confidence.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Any early MVFR conditions
should quickly lift to VFR by midday. Low risk of a few afternoon
and evening showers/thunderstorms well inland.
Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR likely with low risk of IFR in
spots. A few thunderstorms also possible Sun afternoon across the
interior.
Monday...Low confidence given time range and weather pattern. VFR
likely but period of MVFR in low risk of scattered showers/
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence. Winds and seas below small craft criteria
through Thursday night.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front. Then winds become ssw Sunday
into Tue as front lifts north as a warm front.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
MAZ002>005-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT... not much change to the forecast at this time
with weak frontal boundary drifting southward with some isolated
showers. The other batch of showers across Litchfield County
continues to dissipate. So just FEW-SCT clouds, mainly the mid
level variety, to continue this evening. A period of clearing is
expected overnight before some increase in clouds arrives from
upstream.
Prev Disc...A weak cold front continues to move across eastern NY
and western New England with a band of clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles from the Capital Region north...and a wind shift
from the south to southwest to the west to northwest. Some wind
gusts have been close to 30 kts...and temps spiked into the upper
80s to 90F /KPOU/ ahead of the front. The low-levels remain dry
with sfc dewpts in the 40s to l50s. That will change FRI into the
holiday weekend.
The boundary will stall over eastern NY and south-central New
England. There is no clean synoptic forcing with the front...so we
expect the isolated showers to die off with the daytime
heating...and variable cloudy conditions to persist tonight. The
winds will become light and variable which will allow temps to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s in many of the valley
spots...and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tomorrow...Most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it
will take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.
Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.
Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpts into
the lower to mids 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.
Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to continue with the potential for some
mist/fog mainly at KGFL. There will be an increase in clouds late
tonight and through Thursday along with the chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon. For now, we will place VCSH.
Winds will diminish from the westerly direction around 10kts to
light and variable tonight. Then a gradual shift to the south-
southeast less than 10kts Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.
The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.
A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.
As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south and east through tonight
followed by a weak cold front crossing the area on Thursday. This
front then lifts north as a warm front Thursday night, with high
pressure building in behind the front through Saturday night. A
series of frontal boundaries then impact the area from Sunday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With high pressure translating off the southeast coast, a sw flow
is setting up across the region. The pressure gradient is weak
enough and enough land sea temperature differential has led to sea
breeze circulations keeping coastal locations relatively cooler
than places farther inland. Temperatures are well into the 80s
across the region and will reach near 90 for some locations. Sky
conditions are sunny without much of any clouds with ridging and
thereby subsidence aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints were
slightly adjusted to better match observed trends with otherwise
no other remarkable changes made to the forecast database.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Deep layered ridging remains in control tonight and Thursday. It
will be dry tonight, with only some high clouds around. However, a
700-500 hPa shortwaves passes over the top of the ridge, and
through the area Thursday afternoon. This, coupled with surface
based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, Showalter Indices from -2 to 2, and
20-25kt of Bulk shear over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, warrants
slight chance to chance pops in that region.
It should be noted that the ECMWF suggests that there should be
sufficient subsidence under the ridge to keep things dry
throughout the area on Thursday. The GFS however suggests fairly
extensive convection over roughly the NW 2/5 of the CWA, with the
NAM somewhat in between (though closer to the ECMWF than the
GFS). Noting, that in addition to the passing shortwave, will also
have a cold front sinking south into the region. Based on this, it
appears there is enough forcing to warrant pops at this time.
However, there is still the potential for no precipitation at all
on Thursday.
For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values around 10-15 degrees above
normal. A blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance, NAM 2-meter temperatures
and a mix down from 850-750 hPa, per BUFKIT soundings, was used
for highs on Thursday. Highs should be around 15 degrees above
normal, but probably a degree or so lower than today. If the more
extensive convection suggested by the GFS plays out, highs,
especially over western areas, might need to be lowered by at
least 5 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary lifts north of the area as a warm front Thursday
night. A southerly flow and ridging aloft will allow for the
above normal temperatures to continue Friday and Saturday. It will
also mean a noticeable increase in humidity as inland areas will
see dewpoints into the lower to middle 60s by Friday afternoon,
mainly away from the coast. The relatively cool ocean waters will
keep temperatures and dewpoints down along coastal areas. However,
temperatures across central Nassau and Suffolk may reach the upper
70s to near 80 on both Friday and Saturday.
The warm front then approaches our area again late Saturday night
into Sunday morning as a back door cold front. High pressure behind
this cold front over southeastern Canada slips off the New England
coast and into the western Atlantic during this time period. This
high is weaker than in previous model runs, and thus will not push
as far into our area as previously forecast. This will help to keep
the frontal boundary in the vicinity through Monday morning.
Sunday`s temperature may be a difficult one depending on which side
of the front we will be on.
We will be warm sectored on Monday. However, clouds and will keep
temperatures down.
A cold front then approaches for Tuesday.
Something to watch is the disturbance well off the Southeast coast.
Models show this disturbance moving inland over the Southeast coast
and having little, if any, impact for our area through the forecast
period. However, moisture from this system could make its way into
our area on Tuesday, but right now it looks like a low chance of
that happening. It is still a few days out with a good deal of
uncertainty in the forecast.
As far as rainfall, nothing looks organized for the long term.
There is a fair amount of moisture available given the humid airmass
and surface based CAPE values are high for the afternoons from
Friday through Monday, but lift does not look overly impressive.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible for areas north and
west of NYC Friday and Saturday. Then there is at least a slight
chance for the entire area on Sunday with the approach of the back
door cold front, which will remain in the vicinity through Monday.
Continued unsettled for Tuesday with the approach of the cold front
from the west. None of these days are expected to be a washout, just
passing showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today.
VFR forecast.
West winds 8-12 kt will back to the SW through this afternoon.
Gusts 17-19 kt through this afternoon.
SW winds 5-10 kt this evening at KNYC terminals and LGT/VRB
elsewhere. Afternoon sea breezes expected on Thursday.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 18-22 kt this afternoon. Sea
breeze also could back winds to the South through this evening.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might back
closer to 250-230 magnetic this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.
KISP TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. Winds might
back closer to 230-210 magnetic this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Thursday through Monday...
.Thursday afternoon...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazards are expected today with sub SCA conditions as high
pressure builds south of the waters.
Outside of afternoon seabreezes bring gusts to around 20 kt to the
New York Bight Region this afternoon and Thursday, a light to
moderate pressure gradient over the area will keep winds to 15 kt
or less through Sunday. With no significant swell forecast, these
relatively light winds will keep seas below Small Craft Advisory
criteria as well throughout the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through Thursday morning. Scattered to Isolated Showers and
Thunderstorms, mainly from NYC on N/W Thursday afternoon/evening
could bring less than 1/2 inch of rain to that area.
There are no significant hydrologic impacts expected from Thursday
Night into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/Maloit/JP
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move southward from the Saint Lawrence Valley
this afternoon. This boundary will eventually stall across the
region tonight then move back north as a warm front late in the
week. A large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather as we
head into the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 159 PM EDT...High pressure is ridging in from the
south...as a cold front has become stationary near the St Lawrence
River Valley. Temps are exceeding current forecasted values...so
have increased 2 to 3 degrees with mid and upper 80s possible in
the Hudson River Valley. A few showers are possible for the
western Adirondacks with a weak disturbance ahead of the front.
Slight chc pops were kept in there. Better Chances for any
convection should be limited to northern New York and the
Adirondacks in the vicinity of the boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any convection will dissipate quickly after sunset. We will be
left with a clear to partly cloudy night with a summery feel, as
low temperatures only dip to around 50 in the coolest spots, 55-60
in most areas, warmest right in the Capital region. The wind will
become light and once again there could be a few patches of fog
around daybreak.
We continue to see some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage
of clouds and how extensive any shower or thunderstorm activity
will be on Thursday and Friday. It looks as if a weak boundary
and another disturbance could trigger some convection later
Thursday as dewpoints increase into the 60s, although SBCAPES do
not look that high (500-1000 J/KG). Most of the day will be dry
and there will a good of deal sunshine as well. Very warm
temperatures will likely be a point or two higher than Wednesday.
Scattered convection could linger into Thursday night as the
aforementioned boundary slowly lifts northward as warm front
through our region.
By Friday, 500 MB heights continue to rise as an impressive ridge
builds just to our south, reaching close to 590 hectopascals , not
too shabby for May. Rising heights tend to induce subsidence and
capping.
Still most models do indicate a scattered of showers and
thunderstorms for mainly Friday afternoon so will continue with
low chances of thunderstorms. It will be another very warm to hot
day with highs 85-90 in the valleys, 80-85 higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.
There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through
Monday with a chance of showers on Tuesday. The activity will be
most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. The forecast
area will be impacted by ridge rollers as moisture rides along the
top of the ridge which will be anchored to our south. Sunday and
Monday are the days during which the thunderstorm activity looks
most widespread as a back door cold front drops southwest on Sunday
and returns north as a warm front on Monday.
Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 70s with mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with
lows Sunday night and Monday night in the mid 50s to around 60.
Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, heights will continue to rise as ridging builds in through
the overnight into Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is
approaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley. This boundary will
move gradually southeastward across the region through Thursday.
Chances for any convection through the TAF period 18z/Thu should
be limited to the northern New York in the vicinity of the boundary
this afternoon, north of KGFL.
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, 18Z/Thu. The exception
will be the possibility will be for MVFR due to fog at KGFL late
tonight.
Westerly winds with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon will diminish
this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday night through Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...and mainly PM TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across the
Adirondacks, it should be a dry warm day today. RH values will
drop into the 30s in most valley locations this afternoon, but
stay in the 40s across most of the higher terrain. A west wind
will average 10 mph later in the morning through early evening.
There will be some gusts to 20 mph across the higher elevations,
Mohawk valley and Greater Capital District.
A Bermuda high will take control of our weather for the next
several upcoming day. This feature will bring very warm
increasingly humid days and nights will full recovery. There will
be chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
especially over the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Saturday.
Today looks mainly dry outside a few possible showers and
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. As a Bermuda high forms, we
can expect warm and increasingly humid weather Thursday through
the weekend.
While most of that time will be rainfree, there is an increasing
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. These look
scattered but as PWATS increase well over an inch, isolated heavy
rainfall will possible by Friday afternoon.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring very warm weather to most of the
region through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times
along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler
weather to the region sometime on Sunday, but temperatures should
rebound to at or above normal by early next week. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, and
again this weekend but the vast majority of this time will be dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Summer temperatures push in today across the region***
1030 AM Update...Most of the fog has cleared out across the area
with the exception of one band of fog that is hugging the south
coast of RI and moving eastward towards Buzzards Bay and the Cape.
If it continues on this trajectory without burning off, portions
of Cape Cod along the Cape Cod Canal as well as Martha`s Vineyard
and the Elizabeth Islands will see a period of fog later this
morning into early afternoon. Visibilities have been generally
about a mile with this bank of fog on land, it may be more dense
over the water. Made minor adjustments to the temperatures to ease
them back as they have not jumped up as quickly as forecast.
Otherwise, the previous forecast is on track.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will cross the region by
midday through the afternoon with NW winds aloft. Warm core H925
temps will push across the region, up to +19C to +22C by this
afternoon. Once skies become mostly sunny, temps will rise quickly
with excellent low and mid level mixing in place. Expect temps to
top off in the mid-upper 80s with a few spots touching 90.
However, dewpoints falling into the 40s will result in low
humidity levels.
High clouds will start to push in from the NW during the mid and
late afternoon ahead of H5 short wave across far northern New
England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
Most of the energy from a weak H5 shortwave trough will remain
across northern New England. NW flow keeps dry conditions across
the region tonight. The mid and upper level clouds will dissipate
overnight as SW winds shift back to W-NW and diminish. It will
remain mild, with temperatures only bottoming out from the mid 50s
well inland to lower-mid 60s across the coastal plain.
Thursday...
A cold front will slowly push S across the region during the day.
Clouds will push in from the W as the front moves in during the
afternoon. Short range models vary in their solutions, with mainly
dry conditions through the day offered by the ECMWF, but the GFS
tends to bring some moisture with a weak H5 shortwave in the W-NW
flow aloft. Have mentioned only slight chance PoPs moving into W
MA/N Central CT during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Have noted marginal instability with this system, plus another
day of warm temperatures, so have mentioned widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.
It will be another warm day, with somewhat higher dewpoints making
it feel a bit more humid. Highs will again be in the mid-upper 80s
away from the immediate coast, with a few spots possibly hitting
90 again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Friday: Very warm w/highs mid-upper 80s northwest of BOS-PVD but
a bit cooler across southeast MA/RI
* Saturday: Hot and a bit humid w/highs mainly upper 80s to lower
90s away from the immediate south coast
* Sunday: Temps uncertain depending on timing of cold front, warmest
readings likely CT River Valley w/coolest across Eastern MA coast
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri and again Sat/Sun
but the vast majority of this time will be dry
* At or above normal temperatures likely return early next week
Details...
Thursday night...Shortwave energy and a burst of elevated
instability may result in a few showers/t-storms Thursday night,
mainly northwest of a Boston to Providence line. If any activity is
able to develop, it will be short-lived with the majority of the
night ending up dry. Low temps mainly in the upper 50s to the lower
60s. May see some patchy ground fog develop late in the typically
prone locations.
Friday...Surface winds shift to the south-southwest behind the
warm front as 850T rise to around +14C. Plenty of sunshine should
allow highs to warm into the middle to upper 80s northwest of a
Boston to Providence line. Southeast of this line...a cooling
marine layer may hold highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry weather will dominate on Friday, but enough instability
combined with a pre-frontal trough may allow a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across W MA/N CT Fri afternoon
and evening. Not sure if this activity gets into our region or
stays to our west, but highest risk will be across northwest MA.
Shear is rather weak so even if we see a few thunderstorms in our
western zones, overall severe weather threat is rather low.
Saturday...A hot and somewhat humid day is on tap to kick off the
Memorial Day Weekend. 850T around +16C, plenty of sunshine, and a
westerly component to the surface winds should allow for high temps
to reach into the upper 80s to the lower 90s away from the immediate
south coast. Dewpoints between 60 and 65 across most of the region
will make it feel a bit humid.
While most of the day will be dry, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening with a
pre-frontal trough and CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG.
This will be mainly to the northwest of a Boston to Providence
line. Forcing will be rather weak, so areal coverage of any
activity that develops may remain limited. Severe weather threat
also looks rather low at this time with rather weak 0 to 6 km
shear, but too early to rule out a strong thunderstorm or two
given decent instability.
Sunday...Low confidence on high temperatures given a subtle change
in timing of the backdoor cold front will make a big difference in
the exact outcome. We can say that the warmest readings will be
across the lower CT River Valley and coolest along the eastern MA
coast. Good shot though at the CT River Valley seeing high temps
reaching well into the 80s, while the eastern MA coast has
afternoon temps falling into the 60s. A few showers will remain
possible and perhaps even a couple of t-storms across the interior
if enough instability develops during the afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday...Backdoor cold front does not appear as strong
on the latest model runs. It looks to washout across the region
early next week. GFS washes out on Monday while the ECMWF waits
until Tuesday. Probably should see the return to above normal temps
by Tue with rather warm temps aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. VFR conditions expected the rest of the
day, except on the Cape and Islands where fog may reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds 10 kt or
less.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. An ESE sea breeze has
developed and is expected to continue into early afternoon.
Southwesterly winds should overcome this by late afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR
conditions likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible
in a few brief showers/t-storms mainly across the interior. Also,
some patchy ground fog possible in the typically prone locations
very early Fri AM.
Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions likely
dominate but a brief period of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys possible in a
few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions may develop from east
to west behind a backdoor cold front. A few thunderstorms also
possible Sun afternoon across the interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence. W winds up to 10 kt will back to SW
10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt on the southern
outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less. Patchy fog mainly along the south
coast will result in reduced visibilities at times.
Tonight...High confidence. Light southwesterly winds become
westerly, gusting up to 20 kt on the southern outer waters this
evening. Seas 4 ft or less.
Thursday...High confidence. Light W winds shifting to S in the
afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the period. The main concerns are a period of
near-shore southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots Saturday
afternoon which will result in some choppy seas for mariners. May
also see some brief easterly wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots on
Sunday behind a backdoor cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Expect temperatures will rise quickly, soaring well into
the 80s to near 90 across most locations except cooler along the
immediate south coast. These temperatures will combine with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s resulting in afternoon RH values down
to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly wind gusts up
to 20 to perhaps briefly 25 mph are anticipated. Given Tuesday`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will fall short of needing fire
weather headlines. Many locations are close to or already at full
green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ003-004-
006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
229 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A few leftover showers may fall across western MA and north
central Conn., as well as south coastal MA and RI through the
early this morning as low pressure slowly moves northeast to the
Gulf of Maine. An upper level high pressure ridge will then bring
very warm to hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for cooler temperatures at times on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM Update...
H5 cutoff low has pushed just E of Cape Cod as seen on latest
water vapor and IR satellite imagery. Winds have diminished to
near calm away from the coast at 05Z obs. Noting patchy dense fog
has started to form across portions of the CT valley into NE CT.
May see more develop over the next few hours across central and
western areas. May also see a few showers develop with the last
of the band crossing out the Berkshires through 08Z-09Z.
Remainder of previous forecast in pretty good shape, but have
updated to bring current.
Previous discussion...
With light winds across the region, along with lowering
temp/dewpoint spreads, will still see patchy fog develop along
with lingering low clouds from around Worcester and Windham
counties eastward through around midnight, but trends continue to
indicate that this should slowly push E during the early morning
hours as the low exits, but will be slowest across E coastal MA.
Partial clearing should begin moving into the CT valley after
midnight as winds back to light NW, then will slowly shift E
overnight. Clouds will linger along the E coast through daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Move in Today ***
Today ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...Moderate confidence, though lower in timing of
improving conditions toward daybreak.
Areas of IFR-LIFR CIGS and mixture of VFR to IFR VSBYS in patchy
fog, lowest across interior E MA and portions of CT valley into NE
CT. Should start to see conditions improve to VFR across CT
valley after 08Z, then slowly progressing E after daybreak. Calm
or light/vrbl winds.
Today...Moderate confidence this morning, then high confidence.
IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS across central-E MA/RI should
improve by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR. W-SW winds 10 kt or less.
Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions. W-NW winds less than 10
kt.
Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light W-NW winds, except sea
breezes possible late morning/afternoon along the coast.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Uncertain on exact timing of
improvement, but should take place by around 10Z.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. otherwise VFR.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z...High confidence.
Upper level low will slowly move into Massachusetts Bay during
the early morning hours. Light E-NE winds across the eastern
waters will back to N-NW, becoming mainly W of all waters toward
daybreak. Leftover SE swells will linger on the outer waters E
and S of Cape Cod, but should subside below 5 ft by around 08Z-
09Z. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog, locally dense in some
locations, should improve from W-E.
Today...High confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by
midday with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon.
Winds become southwest by midday.
Tonight...High confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given today`s rainfall
and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for
fire weather headlines especially given many locations are near
full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for RIZ003-004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT early
this morning for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.
However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.
At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.
We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.
As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.
KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.
Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to
the south on Wednesday. A cold front moves through on Thursday.
High pressure will then dominate through Saturday night as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A cold front
will move through on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake
across New England Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore
Monday, allowing a broad area of low pressure to begin approaching
from the south later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. persistent showers continue to
track down from new england...so have added chc pops for a few
more hours as a weakening trend is noted on radar as well as in
the hrrr. dry weather should return by midnight with decreasing
clouds overnight. have also added patchy fog to ct coastal areas
and ern long island overnight with light winds and high moisture
content at the sfc. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly
t/td.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. With lighter winds across
the interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south overnight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light overnight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
light pcpn amounts (less than 1/10 inch) in any remaining showers this
eve.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.
Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.
Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.
Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.
There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/. We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend. However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.
Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region. As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer. Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c. So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids. Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY. If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern. For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.
For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast. Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.
The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.
RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.
The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. High pressure will
dominate through Saturday night as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move across. A back door cold front will move through
on Sunday. High pressure will build in its wake across New England
Sunday afternoon and night, then pass offshore Monday, allowing a
broad area of low pressure to begin approaching from the south
later Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is generally on track. Made some adjustments to pops
next couple of hours based on latest radar trends. Showers
continue to weaken this eve and dry weather should return by
midnight. Otherwise...minor adjustments made to hourly t/td and
winds.
The region will be behind a weak surface trough. The upper level
low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the region. This
will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The lows were a blend
of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb temperatures increase
through the night. A light westerly flow is conveyed by the models
which will help mix down some relatively warmer air tonight
despite the decrease in clouds, thereby mitigating radiational
cooling. With lighter winds across the interior, min temperatures
were further lowered by a degree. Also with lighter winds across
the interior and residual low level moisture...there could be some
patchy fog late into early Wednesday Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the
region. This will allow for westerly flow to continue.
Aloft...ridging continues with high pressure establishing itself
southwest of the region. A very warm day is expected with highs
around 15 degrees above normal on average...cooler at the
immediate eastern shorelines with partial sea breeze influences.
Overall though less marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summerlike warmth will continue through the first half of the
weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. Shortwave
disturbances will however be able to move through the longwave ridge
and bring chances for late day convection mainly from NYC north/west
both Friday and Saturday. GFS seems too quick to do so on Thursday
as well, and think any convection that day will be isolated in nature
and confined to well NW of NYC.
High temperatures both Thu/Fri will be well into the 80s in most
places, and some isolated lower 90s are not out of the question somewhere
in urban NE NJ, in the valleys of Orange County, or the interior lower
CT river valley. Lows will range mostly from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
The ridge then weakens across New England in response to a sharp
northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada, pushing
a back door cold front through on Sunday as a surface high builds
across New England. Forecast details become less certain from
Sunday onward, and will be dependent on how far south the front
sinks. Forecast temperatures could be at least several degrees
cooler and chances for rain lower if the front does push farther
south. Leaning more toward the ECMWF idea of more of a glancing
blow from this cooler air mass for now.
As we go into Monday night and Tuesday, we should start dealing
with influx of Atlantic moisture well north of a subtropical or
tropical weather system now just beginning to organize near and
northeast of the Bahamas, and forecast by global models to head
toward the Southeast coast.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the northeast as high pressure builds to the
south tonight and Wednesday.
Mid and high clouds give way to clear skies overnight and through
the day Wednesday. However, lingering stratus will take a little
longer to scour out for eastern terminals such as KGON. In addition,
patchy fog will likely develop after midnight for a few outlying
terminals. MVFR or IFR vsbys are possible.
After 12z, any fog lifts.
Winds will be light tonight. West winds 5 to 10 kts in the morning
Wednesday will increase to 9 to 13 kts in the afternoon. A few gusts
are possible in the 15 to 20 kt range.
Winds may back around to the s/sw at KJFK, and CT terminals in the
afternoon with seabreeze influence.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze is expected Wednesday.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. West
winds will increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy fog is possible overnight. West winds will
increase by afternoon with occasional gusts expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments this evening. A late
day seabreeze may approach the airport Wednesday, but do not
expect the seabreeze to move through at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Thursday through Sunday...
.Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR in showers possible NW of NYC.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Minimal SCA conditions mainly in the form of higher ocean seas
may be possible Sunday afternoon and night as easterly flow
increases following a back door cold frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected into early
this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms.
Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
both late day Friday and Saturday, possibly still well inland well
N/W of NYC on Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across portions of Southern RI
and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure slowly moves
across southeastern New England. An upper level high pressure
ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of the
region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler temperatures
at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance
exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a backdoor cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700 PM Update...
Overall forecast is on track. Removed the thunder mention for this
evening as convection has remained just west of southern New
England. Also increased precip trends across RI and southeast MA
as area of showers continues to develop and spin as the upper
level low begins to slowly shift eastward. Otherwise breaks of sun
across western MA as allowed for temps to warm in to the upper 60s
late this afternoon. Onshore flow across eastern MA will continue
until the low shifts eastward creating more of a northerly flow.
Fog and drizzle will remain over the next several hours.
May need to watch for radiational fog development tonight across
the low lying areas as lingering low level moisture combined with
cooling temperatures will create a low temp/dewpoint spread. Dense
fog is not expected at this time.
Previous Discussion...
An area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI into
Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off the
ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers
should be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a
washout expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Well above average temperatures for Thu and Fri with the potential
for a spot thunderstorm
* Hazy, Hot and Humid for Saturday with locations reaching 90+F
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
* Back door cold front on Sunday will keep conditions cool into
Monday
OVERVIEW...
Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level trough will move eastward towards the
Maritimes as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. Anomalous
high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to build this
ridge through Saturday. Anticipate summer-like warmth and humidity
to return to the region as ensembles show both the 700 and 500
heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Several waves
will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday and again on
Saturday. Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance
trended the forecast towards an overall blend. Back door cold front
will swing through by Sunday cooling the area down. However, on
Monday, still some discrepancies with offshore high pressure. The
GFS keeps it closer to the coast keeping temps on Monday cooler
while the EC is weaker and more offshore. Continued with a model
blend for now.
DAILIES...
Thursday into Friday...High Confidence.
Upper level ridge will build into the region on each day. Anticipate
the warm weather to continue into Thursday as 925 mb temps are
generally around 20C. This warm airmass combined with westerly flow
and the warm May sun will help aid in high temps reaching into the
mid to upper 80s with a few 90s near the CT valley. Conditions look
to be cooler along the MA coastline as a sea breeze will develop
from weak winds aloft. A spot shower or thunderstorm may develop in
the afternoon, but most of the region will remain dry.
Weak shortwave will pass through the flow Thursday night. Due to
building heights across the region and weak southwesterly flow,
appears that the better forcing will be north of southern New
England. However, cannot rule out the potential for precip Thursday
night into Friday morning across the north and northwest portion of
the region. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for
elevated convection so continued the mention for thunder in the
forecast for now.
Temperatures on Friday look to be similar as they will be on
Thursday with heights in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90F across
the CT valley. Still a large spread in the guidance on if Boston
will reach 80F as there is question in the sea breeze development.
However 925 mb winds appear to be strong enough to allow for good SW
flow to warm the immediate eastern coastline. This southwest flow
will keep the south coast cooler thanks to onshore flow and the
cooler ocean waters.
Once again a spot shower looks to be possible in the afternoon, but
better forcing and instability appears to remain west of the region.
So another dry weather day is expected.
Saturday...Moderate Confidence
Upper level ridge will strengthen across the the eastern Great Lakes
as warm front lifts northward. A very warm day will be on tap as 925
mb temps will warm to 23-24C. Ensembles continue to show
probabilities that many locations could reach above 90F. This hazy,
hot and humid day does have some caveats. Approaching surface trough
looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.
Sunday into Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Back door cold front will swing through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will cool temperatures down across the
region. The front does look to push and stall across the Hudson.
However, could still see upper 70s or low 80s across the CT river
valley as 925 mb temps are between 18-20C. Otherwise anticipate a
cooler weather day.
Still large spread for surface temps on Monday. GFS and EC have
about a 15 degree difference amongst each other. The GFS is cooler
with highs in the low 70s while the EC is warmer with highs in the
low 80s. Continued with a model blend for now to split the
difference. May see a few sct showers on Monday depending on the
location of the southeast low pressure system and how quickly it
moves northwards towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Isolated lighter showers east of the Worcester Hills tonight.
Mainly MVFR all terminals except Coastal MA which will see periods
of IFR. VFR across the CT valley. Cigs and vsby improve from west
to east after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Low confidence. MVFR conditions to start with some
improvements on Sunday as a back door front swings through.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period. Could see some brief near shore
southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible Friday and
Saturday...which will result in some choppy seas. Otherwise could
see some afternoon convection on Saturday as a back door cold
front swings through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Nocera/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms over
Western portions of MA and CT will continue into early this
evening. Scattered showers may also develop across portions of
Southern RI and southeast MA early this evening as low pressure
slowly moves across southeastern New England. An upper level high
pressure ridge will then bring very warm to hot weather to most of
the region Wednesday through Saturday, except for cooler
temperatures at times on the immediate coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into Friday, but a
better chance exists Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a
backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 PM Update ...
Vertically stacked low over the region with -19c air at 500 mb. This
cold air aloft combined with cyclonic flow is resulting in
scattered showers and embedded thunder. The convection is focused
on the western side of the low where SPC mesoanalysis indicates some
baroclinicity at 850 mb and 925 mb along with some breaks of
sunshine yielding 250-500 j/kg of SB cape per mesoanalysis. This
will continue to be the theme thru sunset with convection focused
across this region.
A second area of showers may develop over Southern-Southeastern RI
into Southeast MA as plume of deeper moisture pivots northeast off
the ocean into that area. This is supported by multi model K indices
and latest trends seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Already
seeing the first signs of this with light showers developing over
Marthas Vineyard and Elizabeth Islands. However these showers should
be weak/low top with not a lot of impact. Thus not a washout
expected this evening.
Otherwise drying trend second half of the night as vertically
stacked low moves offshore by sunrise.
Temps seasonably cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** Summer-like Temperatures Arrive Wednesday ***
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ...
Vertically stacked low just east of Cape Cod at 12z/8am but ejects
seaward quickly with rising heights and northwest flow aloft by
midday. Thus any cloudiness across Eastern MA at sunrise quickly
erodes and/or moves offshore with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Warming temps aloft to +14c at 850 mb and +21c at 925 mb
yields surface temps at least 30C/86F. Although with boundary layer
mixing beyond 850 mb highs will make a run at 90 in many locations.
However humidity will be low with dew pts only in the mid to upper
40s. Not as warm along the South Coast including Cape Cod and the
Islands...where winds will bend to the southwest off the cooler
ocean waters.
Wed night ...
Dry, tranquil weather with mid level ridge and associated
anticyclonic flow continuing to build across the region from the
west. Dry airmass in place along with diminishing winds and mostly
clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 50s...except 60-65 in
the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast
Details...
Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers. A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.
Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England. This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations. However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri. While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA. Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.
Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England. So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some improvement in vsbys observed over past 1 to 2 hours but
cigs slow to rise in onshore flow across much of the area. Believe
will begin to rise into the VFR range across the CT River Valley
by mid afternoon. Rest of the area should see very slow
improvement into at least low MVFR cig range, although there could
be a few holdouts below one thousand feet in SE coastal areas.
Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorm or two could
develop late this afternoon/evening over portions of RI and SE MA.
There could also be scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon near the Berkshire Crest.
Tonight ... Moderate confidence with uncertainty centered around
except timing of improving conditions overnight.
Showers with isolated thunder focused across Western portions of
MA and CT. Isolated lighter showers elsewhere. Mainly MVFR all
terminals except Coastal MA. Showers dissipate with sunset and
cigs and vsby improve after 06z.
Wed ... high confidence.
Any leftover MVFR cigs at sunrise will be across Eastern MA but
quickly lifting to VFR by 15z or sooner. Dry weather and west
winds except southwest along the coast.
Wed night ... high confidence.
VFR/DRY and light sw winds becoming west.
KBOS TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 06z.
KBDL TAF ... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on exact timing
of improvement but should take place around 03z-06z. Showers
should stay west of BDL airspace but will be close and need to
watch early this evening.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other than a few hours
of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the typically
prone locations.
Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.
Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
4 pm update ...
Tonight ... high confidence except uncertainty on areal coverage of
showers and exact timing.
Vertically stacked low over the RI waters will slowly drift to Cape
Cod by morning. Few light rain showers will accompany this low along
with patchy fog. Leftover southeast swell of 3-6 ft continue across
the Southeast MA ocean waters.
Wed ... high confidence on all weather parameters.
Low pressure near Cape Cod at sunrise moves east/offshore by midday
with a drying trend and vsby improving to the horizon. Winds become
southwest by midday.
Wed night ... high confidence.
Light southwest winds become westerly. Dry weather and vsby
continue.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...High Confidence.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 pm update ...
Wednesday ... High temperatures soaring well into the 80s to near
90 in most locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values
dropping to between 20 and 30 percent. A few hours of westerly
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s
rainfall and marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the
need for fire weather headlines especially given many locations
are near full green-up.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ003-
004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera
MARINE...Frank/Nocera
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast through tonight,
moving into the Gulf of Maine. An associated weak surface trough
will move east of the region tonight. High pressure builds in
from the southwest briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. This
weakens and moves farther offshore Wednesday Night as a weakening
cold front moves through by early Thursday. This lifts north as a
warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Higher vorticity advection associated with residual cold pool
aloft with lingering upper level low combined with increased
daytime heating has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Some gusty winds and small hail as well as heavy rain are possible
for brief periods of time with these thunderstorms. Most of the
convection has been confined to Southwest Connecticut and Western
Long Island Sound. With CAPE values forecast of a few hundred J/KG
more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with coverage
being scattered. This will decrease with loss of diurnal heating
and as cold pool aloft shift farther east this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the region will be behind a weak surface trough. The
upper level low and associated cold pool aloft shift east of the
region. This will increase subsidence with ridging aloft. The
lows were a blend of 1/3 MET, 1/3 MAV and 1/3 12z GMOS. 850mb
temperatures increase through the night. A light westerly flow is
conveyed by the models which will help mix down some relatively
warmer air tonight despite the decrease in clouds, thereby
mitigating radiational cooling. With lighter winds across the
interior, min temperatures were further lowered by a degree.
For Wednesday, the surface trough will be just east of the region.
This will allow for westerly flow to continue. Aloft...ridging
continues with high pressure establishing itself southwest of the
region. A very warm day is expected with highs around 15 degrees
above normal on average...cooler at the immediate eastern
shorelines with partial sea breeze influences. Overall though less
marine influence with the more westerly flow.
For Wednesday Night, aloft there will be continued ridging. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will become weak with high pressure
becoming weaker and translating farther south into the open
Atlantic. A parent low moves into the Canadian Maritimes but will
be filling in with increasing central pressure...essentially
weakening. The associated cold front moves through by early
Thursday but will be weakening as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday Night, allowing for forecast winds and seas to stay
below SCA criteria.
The only hazard across the forecast waters, mainly the western
forecast waters, will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening with potential for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail. Otherwise no hazardous conditions are
expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
into early this evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible
in thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is pretty much on track here. There were some slight
adjustments to better match observed trends with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and pops for showers. Otherwise though, no
remarkable changes were made to the forecast database.
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.
With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.
Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.
Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.
The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.
The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will pass through the terminals
through this evening. Will carry VCSH/VCTS in the 18Z TAFs through
this evening, but confidence on timing and coverage is low.
Generally a VFR forecast. Conds may briefly lower to MVFR in
SHRA/TSRA. In addition, MVFR VSBY possible in areas of BR late
tonight, mainly away from KNYC terminals.
Winds generally ranging from N to NW at 5-10 KT. Winds become
LGT/VRB this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
KISP TAF Comments: Occasional SHRA/TSRA possible through this
evening with brief MVFR conds. Low confidence on sea breeze
development.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Occasional MVFR in
showers/thunderstorms possible.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters through
Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to the
northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late tonight
and Wednesday.
The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.
Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected for the rest
of today into this evening. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in isolated thunderstorms.
No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.
Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.
The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.
By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.
A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.
The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.
Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.
Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s. The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out. H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains. The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone. Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.
Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic. The ALY forecast get into a warm sector. H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches. The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall. The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday. Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.
Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ. The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through. The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases. This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend. Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.
Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.
After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.
The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.
Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.
A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.
The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.
Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.
There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016
...Potential for heavy rain and mountain snows continues into
morning...
Severe potential will be shifting northward through the afternoon
as the front lifts northward...and may be largely done by 6 PM.
Wrap around spreads in tonight as the upper low slowly moves
eastward across Colorodo. This will put a steady rain/higher
elevation snow across the area...particularly for the Pikes Peak
region. For now...although rainfall could be moderate at times
tonight through Friday...think that rates are not as likely to
exceed flash flood thresholds on the Waldo burn scar as previously
thought. There certainly could be some enhanced runoff into
fountain creek...but this may end up being more steady rises
rather than a sudden one. The only caveat to this is if a strong
to severe cell hits the Waldo Burn scar this afternoon. If this
happens...then there would be a potential for flash flooding...with
greatest threat before 6 PM. Since cells will be hit or miss early
on...no plans to issue any flash flood watches at this point.
Should see a pretty good band of rain and higher elevation snow
take shape and move eastward across the plains on Friday as the
upper low pulls eastward with UVV associated with upper level
deformation, along with mid level north to northeast flow
impinging on the eastern mountains. Cooling aloft under the
passing low, with H7 temperatures progged between 0C and 4C across
the area into early tomorrow morning, supports snow levels down
to around 9000 feet before lifting back up to at or above 10K
through the day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms area
wide through the afternoon. Current winter weather highlights
still look good with total snow accumulations of over a foot on
top of Pikes Peak and 2 to 4 inches across the rest of Teller
County, with 4 to locally 8 inches across the higher elevations
of the Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges, and the Sangre de Cristo and
Wet Mountains. The passing system sends a cold front across the
Eastern Plains, with breezy north winds and temps below seasonal
averages expected across the area through the day tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016
Saturday-Sunday...Drier westerly flow aloft across the area Saturday
gives way to increasing southwest flow through the day on Sunday
ahead of an embedded disturbance translating across the southern
Rockies through Sunday night. There will be enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area
Saturday afternoon and evening, with the best coverage over and near
the higher terrain. There remains some model diffecences on
Sunday, through there looks to be a better chance of showers and
storms expected across the area through the afternoon and
evening, with stronger storms possible across the far SE Plains
with a dry line in the vicinity of western Kansas. Temperatures
look to be at or slightly below seasonal averages through the
weekend.
Monday-Thursday...A relatively cool and unsettled weather pattern
remains in the offing through early next week, as another embedded
disturbance translates across the northern and central Rockies
sends a front across the plains on Monday, with cool upslope flow
persisting across the area on Tuesday. This will keep generally
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms possible
through the period, with temperatures remaining at or slightly
below seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016
VFR conditions will transition to to MVFR as thunderstorms develop
over the mountains and spread eastward onto the plains this
afternoon through tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon after 20-21z for KCOS and KPUB with
erratic wind gusts to 40 kts or higher along with hail...and heavy
rainfall. Winds will shift from the north after thunderstorms
roll through with gusts to 20-30 kts tonight. There may be a lull
in showers for the KCOS terminal before they increase again after
04z with more widespread MVFR CIGS and VIS due to rainfall. PUB
will see stratiform rain and MVFR conditions spread in after 09z.
Winds will increase again from the north at both KCOS and KPUB
Friday morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ058-060.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ082.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ073-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT/MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016
Models still converging on a farther south position of the cold
front this afternoon which puts more of southeast Colorado under
the threat for severe weather as it lifts back northward. Several
runs now of the HRRR are developing supercell thunderstorms along
the boundary across eastern Las Animas and northern Baca
counties...which track north northeastward through the afternoon.
Pretty good updraft helicity at times with some of these
cells...and they will be in an area of good atmospheric low level helicity
given easterly surface winds beneath southwest flow aloft. Will
have to monitor these for not only a severe thunderstorm
potential...but a tornado potential as well. Other area of concern
will be across El Paso county. Every other run of the HRRR
oscillates between more persistent strong convective regime which
persists through the afternoon...to a scenario of brief severe
convection quickly transitioning over to more stratiform scenario.
Still think there is a window for severe thunderstorm
potential...even an isolated tornado threat through the
afternoon...so forecast leans towards the more convective scenario
for now.
Severe potential will be shifting northward through the afternoon
as the front lifts northward...and may be largely done by 6 PM.
Wrap around spreads in tonight as the upper low slowly moves
eastward across Colorodo. This will put a steady rain/higher
elevation snow across the area...particularly for the Pikes Peak
region. Snow levels down to 9000 feet still look on track as do
highlights across the mountains. Should see a pretty good band of
rain take shape and move eastward across the plains on Friday as
the upper low pulls eastward.
For now...although rainfall could be moderate at times
tonight through Friday...think that rates are not as likely to
exceed flash flood thresholds on the Waldo burn scar as
previously thought. There certainly could be some enhanced runoff
into fountain creek...but this may end up being more steady rises
rather than a sudden one. The only caveat to this is if a strong
to severe cell hits the Waldo Burn scar this afternoon. If this
happens...then there would be a potential for flash flooding...with
greatest threat before 6 PM. Since cells will be hit or miss early
on...no plans to issue any flash flood watches at this point. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016
...A POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA..
Currently...
Upper closed low which promises to bring active wx to the region
later today and tonight was spinning over nw AZ at 3 am. Over the
immediate area, boundary extended from roughly KSPD to Kim to KPUB
and the banked up along the mtns. North of this boundary winds are
generally east to northeast with dwpts in the 40s...with 50s over
the extreme east. South of this boundary it was much dryer...with
dwpts in the teens and 20s. Low clouds were generally north of
highway 50 mainly in Kiowa county.
Today...
Guidance not in good agreement this morning. shorter range hi res
guidance wants to keep the boundary down towards the Raton Mesa and
moves it only slowly north with time. Other guidance such as the NAM
and GFS move the boundary farther north with time...generally north
of highway 50. The location of this boundary is going to be critical
on where severe thunderstorms develop today. if the boundary remains
farther south...than more of the plains will be under a threat of
severe storms. If the boundary lift north...than less of the region
will be under the threat. As of 3 am...SPC has the svr threat area
mainly north of highway 50. However, as mentioned above...HRRR runs
have been persistent on wanting to keep this boundary down towards
the Raton Mesa, and lifting it north late in the day. Latest runs of
the HRRR does show a few rotating storms on the se Plains later
today.
The next concern for today will be the threat of heavier precip
over the greater Pikes Peak region. All guidance shows heavier
convective precip developing over the Pikes Peak area later this
afternoon, although the guidance has the QPF bullseyes in a variety
of locations. Conceptually...with the closed low moving over the
region and northeasterly 700 mb winds impinging on the Pikes Peak/S
mtn areas, the chance of heavier precip is rather high. The concern
is will the precip fall heavy enough to produce
flooding...especially over the burn scars? Given that the
antecedent conditions are not favorable for flash flooding...I
did not issue any flood hilites for the region, but conditions
will have to be watched closely for the threat of locally heavy
rain over the Waldo burn scar region.
Snow will fall over the highest peaks today. A winter storm warning
is already in effect for Pikes Peak...and have added snow advisories
for the higher elevations of the Wets...N Sangres...and for the C
mtns. The heaviest snow will fall over Pikes Peak.
Tonight...
Severe threat will continue over the far eastern plains, with the
greatest threat along and north of the boundary. Steady precip, with
embedded convection will develop/continue over the greater Pikes
Peak area as strong upslope flow in the lower atmosphere impinges
across this region. it is not out of the question that some areas in
the Pikes Peak area are going to see an inch of liquid...with local
amounts in excess of 2 inches possible. Heavy wet snow will fall
over the highest elevations of both Teller and El Paso counties. I
expect most of the accumulating snow will fall above ~9000 feet.
With the snow levels falling...the threat for flooding over the burn
scar will decrease.
Summarizing...
Severe storms will be possible over the Plains today. The severe
potential will extend includes the I-25 corridor region. I would not
be too surprised if the 1300 UTC SPC DY1 outlook has more of se CO
outlooked for severe weather based on the HRRR output. All severe
convective modes will be possible...with the greatest threat for a
tornado or two along the boundary that will extend across the
Plains. I anticipate a tornado watch will be issued later today for
parts of the plains.
Heavy rains will likely occur across most if not all of the Pikes
Peak region later this afternoon and into tonight. Some convective
heavy rains will likely occur later this afternoon. If one of these
storms develops over the burn scar...than a flash flood threat will
be possible. A flash flood watch may be needed later today for the
burn scar.
heavy snow will fall across the mtns. The heaviest accums will
occur above 9000 feet. The heaviest snow will fall over Pikes Peak.
/Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016
...Heavy rain and mountain snows continue Friday morning...
Main concern in the extended will be for Friday morning, as the
upper low tracks straight through southeastern Colorado. Storm looks
fairly dynamic, with h7-h5 flow in the 40-50 Kt range rounding the
low center in the NW quad. Mid level flow will be from the N to
NE...bringing a strong orographic component to the Ern mountain
ranges, and contributing to more widespread moderate to heavy precip
in the 12 through 18Z period Friday. The focus for the heaviest QPF
will be over the southern front range, Wets and Sangres, and the I-
25 corridor. The NAM has another 0.5 inches to inch of precip in
this region Fri morn. Other models not quite as wet, but still in
the 0.25-0.50 inch range. With mid level lapse rates falling rapidly
Fri morning, threat for intense convection will drop, but moderate
steady precip could lead to additional problems for local streams
and poor drainage areas. Snow levels will drop to around 8500-9000
feet Fri morning, then rebound to around 10K feet during the day.
Heavy snow accums likely for Pikes Peak above 11000 feet, and higher
elevations of the West and Sangres. Pikes Peak should see an
additional 4-6 inches Friday, and a couple inches for the other
mountain areas. Total snowfall for Pikes Peak could exceed one
foot. Steady precip will wind down Fri afternoon, but there
should still be widespread showers, particularly over the higher
terrain, through the evening. Temps Friday will be about 15
degrees below average for late May.
After Friday, rest of the forecast period is relatively uneventful,
with daily chances for showers, particularly over the mts, and
temps generally around or slightly below average. Quasi-zonal flow
on Sat will transition to SW flow aloft on Sunday as a weaker low
pressure system begins to move into western CO. This system will
move through late Monday into early Tue, and bring another round of
widespread showers and a few storms to the area. The parent low to
this trough will move through the northern Rockies and High Plains
during the midweek period. The GFS is a bit farther south and
stronger with this system than the ECMWF, and there is a large
ensemble spread by 144 hours and beyond. But it is likely the bulk
of this system will remain to our north. As the trough and
associated cold front passes to the east, the Plains will likely
see another round of showers and storms, some of which could be on
the strong side, in the Tue-Wed time period. Stayed pretty close to
the Blended ensemble-based grids for the latter part of the forecast
period, which progs near to slightly below average temps and low-
sct POPs for the region. Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016
VFR conditions will transition to to MVFR as thunderstorms develop
over the mountains and spread eastward onto the plains this
afternoon through tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon after 20-21z for KCOS and KPUB with
erratic wind gusts to 40 kts or higher along with hail...and heavy
rainfall. Winds will shift from the north after thunderstorms
roll through with gusts to 20-30 kts tonight. There may be a lull
in showers for the KCOS terminal before they increase again after
04z with more widespread MVFR CIGS and VIS due to rainfall. PUB
will see stratiform rain and MVFR conditions spread in after 09z.
Winds will increase again from the north at both KCOS and KPUB
Friday morning.
&&
.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT
Friday for COZ058-060.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT Friday
for COZ082.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT
Friday for COZ073-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT